Devig To Ball Knowledge While Live Betting w/ Pads | Ep 131

And so I told my wife, this was, I hadn't quit my job yet. And basically I was like, "Give me one Saturday." And we had two kids, we had two kids. "Give me one Saturday." I am going to like go all out and see what I can do. And I made up a ton of money, like life-changing amount of money in one day. And I was like, "I'm quitting my job." Like. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) - What's up everybody, GPSP. And for the first time on a podcast, we're lucky enough to welcome Pads, Podissimo. Welcome to the pod. Thanks for making us your first podcast stop. And when I'm sure it's gonna be a long career of notable podcast appearances. - Yeah, I don't know if I'm ever gonna come back on a pod, but we'll see, we'll see. (laughing) - Yeah, I guess if this is-- - I like it's fine. I mean, there's a reason why I'm here. You've done a really, really good job. - No, no. Oh, well, we appreciate it. Pads was one of the people I met at that batch who said, post SP, got really good. (laughing) - I don't know if there's correlation or coffee. But we want, we want to read too much into it. - Yeah, we're happy to have you on. These are the shows we like doing. People who've not had done any sort of interviews in the past. So let's just jump right into it. Like for people unfamiliar with you, the first I ever heard of you was when you posted, I don't know if it was a blog or some sort of write up on Twitter. - Yeah. - And I read that and thought it was really interesting and that you would eventually be a good guest. So maybe walk through, I read through that. Some of what's in there, how you got into sports betting, all of that. - Yeah, I guess I'll go way back. So I didn't sports bet at all until post PASPA. And I've always kind of been interested in advantage play. Like I read Mezork's like bringing down the house when I was a teenager and I thought that was like, the coolest thing ever, you know? And then, you know, - Absolutely. - I was really enamored by like Jeff Maughan. It's funny hearing him on a podcast now. (laughing) Never, never meet your heroes or listen to the podcast. I'm just, I'm just. But yeah, I started playing poker at the, like I think that was probably my first, like during the money maker era, me and my little brother. He was 13 at the time, I was 16. We were playing like free tables on poker, just trying to, it was fun. And I actually had, I was gonna go to college next year. So I was a junior, I was, I basically, we were, I was trying to save money for college, wasn't gonna go to senior year. I had a lot of trouble getting a job, a summer job and I was like trying to save money. And him and I were like, why don't we try to win money playing poker? So him and I like read like three books and we play like super small cash stakes. Like in our room, we were like locked in there for like eight hours a day. And eventually got to the point where we were like, we were doing like one cent, two cent no limit cash. And like eventually looked our way up to like the sweet spot of like 50 cent. A dollar and playing like four tables and we would just sit there all summer and just grind. And I was playing like super nitty. Like I would not win today in a way. But it was good enough and it was like, I felt so, it felt so good to like win money just clicking buttons. I really liked that. And the funny thing it was I wasn't legally a lot of play. So I had to use my mom's ID and debit card. And we, you know, you get those like money orders from like Costa Rica where they were. And I was, her name was on the bank. So I was like, yeah, I was like, go and cash her money order from Costa Rica and they put like a hold on it. She was cold on the check, but yeah, no, I'm like, all of a sudden my mom was like, we're getting like new TVs and it was pretty funny. Yeah, I didn't do a great job saving. But yeah, no, I went back in those days, man, those were like awesome. Just hanging out with my little brother. We were clicking made a good team. But yeah, after that, I went to U of I for chemical engineering, which is actually, you know, Tom Stevens, he's the guy. And of course, yeah, we're the legend. He actually wanted to say this generation. He went there too for the same degree. So they're apparently atturing out. It's wild. What are they teaching in that apartment? How do they manage the systems? I guess how to scale, yeah, but yeah. And then so I kind of forgot about betting entirely. I got graduated and worked for 10 years. But yeah, that was, that was kind of it. And I think, like after that, like, I think the first, like, this is like exactly what like maple did. I literally heard his story. And I was like, oh, wow, like, he started exactly the same way. I did where I was churning banker counseling credit cards in like 2019, 2020 timeframe, like pre-past by. And it was like, I remember thinking, like, this is the easiest money. I log in on a Monday, and for 15 minutes, I sign up for like 10 credit cards. And it's worth like 30 grand a year. And it takes me probably like, you know, maybe 10 hours a month or something at tops to do it. And it was like totally worth it for me at the time, where I was with my, you know, family, or anything like that. So that rolled right into like sportsbook bonuses, which is the sort of so obvious and easy to turn. It was like me and my wife basically, you know, sign up for all those things and got like, our bankroll launched like, you could get like 10K each, pretty easily. And I think a lot of people, you know, post-past, I got into it, got hooked that way. And then it was like, you transitioned from promo turning to like, okay, well, how else do you beat this ecosystem? And I was a OJ Air for probably a month before. I eventually found, you know, bookie beats. I was like, there's seventh member at the time. And it was like literally at the time, it was just in our bot. Now there's like a dime and there's hundreds out there. But the thing was like, two minutes, OJ, when they first started, they were like, emailing people. Like they're the Arbolerts, which was like, insanely slow. And like this guy that designed, basically just had these pings. And I remember we were like, oh, this is awesome. It's like free money. And he kept it small, they didn't advertise. And there was like, so that was like my first discord group that I was ever part of. And it was just like very small. There was like, maybe 30 people in there of like, all professional, like, professionals out in the workplace, right? Just lawyers, accountants, and people trying to, you know, beat books at the time. And I got like completely hooked at that stage and just trying to find angles. Started doing some basic origination and sort of SGP angles and things like that. That's how I started. It seems like you've looked back really fondly, not on, not just on the time. Like I feel like that time with your brother, like playing poker. To me, that brought me back. Like I was just kind of doing it on my own, but met some friends over the internet. Like, nothing will replace that time in my memory of like coming up small stakes. Like, I remember a dollar in a friro. No, I remember there was just one hand specifically, where I had like, ace nine, I hit like, you know, mid-parasin, something like that. And my brother, who's like, the rounder's hand, the midiest player of all time, was like, I think he's bluffing. And he was the most conservative. There was like a $300 pot, like game changer in when I was 16. And he's like, I think he's bluffing. I'm like, what? Really? And he's like, yeah. And there's like the first time, and I clicked it, and man, we're like, yeah, you know what I'm saying? My mom's like, yeah. Free poker up there. Yeah. So, yeah. No man, good, good, nice. Oh man, yeah, I feel like I had a, I was a little sticky. Like, I wanted a hero call more, like the hero call above anything. I think just the joy of getting shown a bluff is fantastic. But yeah, I don't know, it seems like also joining the book he beats community, just like interacting with people who are like lawyers or whatever, who probably just like, where they're supposed to work and whatnot, it seems super normal. But then just like let it rip at night or on the weekend, just, I mean, with an edge, like betting with an edge. But I don't know, it's kind of like a cool subculture. I feel like finding that, finding your people goes a long way with like wanting you to stick with it or to, you know, actually go deeper into it. Yeah, for sure. And I think I was probably like the most serious member, but like everybody took, like people would like, grind SGP edges and try and find stuff. And that was pretty cool in the early days before we got live. Because for a long time, live wasn't a part of it. But yeah, I got like obsessed. I like, you know, yeah, I just got very obsessed with the entire space and just started listening to all the podcasts and anything like that. So, I got hooked. So we're definitely going to talk a good bit about, you know, live betting, because I think that's a majority or at least that's my understanding. A majority of what you've done recently are doing today. So we'll get to some of that, that specific discussion. Maybe just just focusing here on some of the early days a little bit more. A lot of people do, like you had said, make, make some like some money from promotional spend. They might, you know, sign up for a site like odds jam or an equivalent, make some money. But most people, like the vast majority of people end there. That's sort of like the end of their journey. They don't, they don't take it any further. What do you think it was about you that got you obsessed to use your own words or like to the next level of just like some of these low hanging fruit, easier money, some of these more, you know, SGP stuff or origination or all this stuff you were doing early on. - Yeah, so I just, you know, like I said, I consumed like so much content. I listened to all the business we chose in episodes. And I remember like churned through like all 20, when I found that podcast, I was like, listen to all 20 episodes right away. And I remember like one of the things that really clicked with me was like kind of the game theory behind, this was like before, before they started limiting. Like the only book that was limited back in the day was like points back when I, you know, the first like year I started. And like, you know, super spot cast when he was just like, you know, why wouldn't we immediately kick out somebody who places a free bet on like a plus 500 college basketball money? Like why would that would be so stupid not? They're gonna be like 99% chance they're gonna be winner. And just like, maybe like completely reframe how I thought about like betting and like, oh, okay, like getting avoiding CLV is like, is the trick, right? So how do we do that, right? And I think that's kind of what like lead me to go to like, to SGPs and I started, there's so many smart people in the space and by like joining so many discords and just accumulating knowledge everywhere, really allowed me to like take it from like just like mindlessly like clicking ours and stuff like that to like actually trying to think about how to like creatively beat some of these things. So yeah, and you know, I think yeah, like, there's so much information out there in these discords that people just share. Like, I think like, you know, bypassing flips $500 max by like infinitely par laying with some TDs under. It's like, I didn't organically find that. I read that somewhat. Like, there's just so many edges out there like learning how to leverage them. You know, I got, I just came obsessed with consuming information. So yeah, that's like SP, SP, that's your thing. It was like, you said people should like join more paid, just join more discords, paid things like whatever, because it just takes that one thing you read and it pays off like infinite. Yeah, I just, it just reminded me like there's one time, I'm like, I love innovated tool, don't give me wrong, but like they're discord one time. There's some guy who posted like, hey, underdog isn't taking to account like a significant strikes and time of fight. Like they're not, they're not correlating. They're like giving you a three accent. Like, so it was just like, what? And I remember reading that and thinking like, oh, like, why would you just post that? Like, clearly, like, I didn't know how much that was worth. Like, you could just do like under five minutes and under significant trade. And like, if you had the infrastructure to tackle that, like that paid for a lifetime of unabated, you know? So like my mentality has always been like tools are so cheap. Tech is so cheap relative to like, you find one good edge. And that's kind of how I, how I've approached a lot of this stuff. I actually feel like that's a big through line with people who win a lot. Like, I've never met people who crush who are like, wow, man, that acts is so expensive. Like, it just doesn't, I mean, I guess like that this point, they're rich, but like, even before then, like, people are just willing to spend on discord or tools or anything. That's like, helpful to their betting strategy. Basically, like, I don't have all the people that win and win a good amount. I haven't really heard a lot of like, complaining about price of tools or being nitty and spending on that. I mean, I think all of it, too, is like, you have to spend the time to read some of the content and read. And also like, detecting if somebody's like, you know, bullshitting, like, there's a lot of bad discord out there. Somebody who's just regurgitating like steam or something like that. But yeah, like, I think about like, if we were in, you know, that that controversy were like, DK, DFS, that guy on Twitter, he, he posted Michael Bridges first quarter, SGP Edge, or like, he just posted it, like, you should slam his under as in. I think about like, if I was in that discord, how much money I would, like, what does it cost? Like 30, it would have take, you know, we could leverage that to the end. So like, and like, obviously, he didn't know what he had. And I think later on, he regretted cheering it in the capacity he did. But I could think about it. I was like, well, if I was there, taking advantage of that. But, you know, unfortunately, it wasn't. So I found that one. That was like, I started to maple. And he was like, I remember where I was. I was confused. And I missed it. It was like a 9/11. Well, stuff like he, like, missed it. Yeah, yeah, it's like 15 minutes. I could have done some damage if I was on that. Yeah. Like everybody, yeah, everybody's like ready to just like, absolutely step on the books throughout with like the, the SGP angle of that, like missing it. Oh my god. Yeah, it's pay. I mean, I wasn't never, I was never going to get it. For me, that white whale is the, the Pebble Beach top top on the parlor. Oh, yeah. I know. I mean, I want to meet. Yeah. Super state wants to meet that guy. I want to meet that guy. Like, the guy's doing draftings for $14 million. Me too. You find that. Exactly. I feel like it's probably like the lawyer doesn't want them to come on the podcast, but I've put out fuelers for this guy and said we said when the lawsuit settles, we'll have you on the pot. My eye. That guy. You take your shot, man. You got it, dude. That's such a good one too, so genius. So let's talk. Let's talk live deading because I feel like, yeah, you're, you're known, I would say you're known mostly for live betting. I know you do a lot of SGP type stuff too. But when did you really decide like, oh, live betting, this is, this is the thing. Like this is the thing that is going to be, is going to like 10x for my bank, or I need to pour my time into whatever, you know, what was the moment and then how did you start to tackle it? Yeah, so back in like 2021, like donor, bookie beats, he made this like live, like he just too, like, tooled in live odds, I'm like, nobody, nobody had it at this point. Like, they had screeners for live, and nothing like, like, like what this was. And nobody used it for like months, which is just so funny, it was just sitting there. Like, it was a part of like, I think that I was like literally a $25 just for just sitting back down, like, and then like one day this guy logged on and was like, hey, I was casually watching colors football Saturday and I turned that on and like, I made like, I made like 10k. I'm like, I'm just armed and he's like, what? And so then like all, you know, all 30 of us were like, what? And so like, we all like, you know, get on and try to figure it out. And like, at that point, the tool was literally like a click, click, it was so bad. Like, it just worked, man, and like, the idea, it was the dream scenario, like, books didn't know they were susceptible to it. They had no CLV on this, right? It's live. And so I told my wife, I was, this was, I hadn't quit my job yet. And basically, I was like, give me one Saturday, and we had two kids, we had two kids. Give me one Saturday. I am going to like go all out and see what I can do. And I made up a ton of money, like, like life changing amount of money in one day, and I was like, I'm quitting my job. Like, there's no point in me continuing to work. So like, I started getting with like, before I quit my job, like I was like, some lawyers and accounts and built like my little business infrastructure, got a few guys as like a betting team. And yeah, now I ended up leaving my job after I was like, every time I get called into work, I worked for a really intense company. It's like, every time I'm getting called in, this would cost me like, the last opportunity was just so massive. So yeah, and I just started focusing on that and like strategy is around life. But yeah, initially it was just literally just top down, or being eventually you evolve over time, right? But that's how I started. So you mentioned this, that is good, there was like, I was trying to jot down like multiple questions in your answer there. But maybe we just start, we're going to talk about this later, but because you've mentioned it a couple of times, maybe just give the idea like of what bookie beats is, how you got introduced, like, because you, it seems like you started, the way you just started, you just sort of found into like this, goes goldmine early on, of this site, person, community tool that could provide like a ton of value, and maybe they didn't even realize what they had. So maybe just introduce, introduce that if anybody's not familiar, and then we can talk more, more about the actual live and some of that. Yeah. Like, it's sort of like, it started out as a tool with a discord, and then like the discord community is kind of what took off. The tool was like $25 a month to start something tiny. And it's basically just the same as like an odd jam or a PTO or a, you know, I think odds view had the same thing. Like where it's like basically just something that's consistently scanning the market and looking for EV and arbitrage opportunities, and then either peeing you or you can use the website and scan it yourself and put in like really specific filters, things like that. So it, a lot of people are probably familiar with odds jam. It's basically that, but like on steroids, like it's, the whole goal is like speed, just get information for any users as fast as possible. Even if that means it costs us a lot of money to get that. So like, that's, that's the goal of the software. Now the community itself, like I stumbled into it, like literally some guy, I was posting some stuff, like I'm like Reddit of all places, like just like, and some guy reached out and was like, Hey, man, like you seem like you are dedicated some time to this. We're kind of trying to recruit people like that into this group. It's like $25 a month. Do you want to get it to go? And I was like, yeah, sure. Why not? Not thinking anything of it. And like the first day, I was like, I made like, you know, $500 or something stupid from like ARBS. And it was just like, Oh, yeah, I'm here. Like I'm stuck. So, um, but yeah, and like the guy never, they never, I think they just bought internally. And this was probably smart. They like, for their users and themselves, right? They're like, we're not going to advertise and we're just going to keep this for ourselves in bet, right? And make a lot of money with it. And the, um, that's kind of where we went from there. So, but it grew massively and upkeep for the website grew massively and it changed significantly over time. And we can kind of talk about that later. But yeah, the initially, that's kind of what it was, yeah, we'll do, um, we'll do a deep dive and into bookie beats, um, after we kind of get through live betting. One thing I want to talk about is going from like live ARBS to what was next. So it's like, you start off, I assume, I don't know, but possibly on that one, when you bet your, your whole family and job on one called football Saturday, that was arming. You know, you want to, you want to close our, make sure you made the money so you could tell your wife I'm quitting my job. But eventually I assume you're not closing every hour, like, and you start to evolve. So what was like the next step and why did, why did you start looking to, uh, potentially be a bit, or assuming you did, you know, try and be a bit more risk on in spots and, uh, pick a side, what was that process like? Yeah. So I think like, when you, I was top down betting for a long time, and eventually your bank was big enough that it doesn't, you know, you don't, you want to eliminate leaks, right? So you're not closing off negative positions when it doesn't make sense, right? Um, but like the first thing was like back in 2022, when I, yeah, around that time when I like was really aggressive tackling this, like there was the live models were like so bad. And so like, they've got a lot better today. You won't find a lot of this easy, low hanging fruit. But like the first obvious one that like I found was just like MGM, NBA totals, like they weren't taking into account, like endgame falling or endgame dreadblows. So on blowouts, you could just jam the under and like, it was like two to three points with like they were, they had lines past paint, Penny would pull and like MGM would have their lines up like two minutes later in the game. So like they had no markers, but you just watched the game, like, oh, like they're not pray, that I think the only other boat was like a fan duel at the time that had prices. And it's like every time on blowouts, MGM would have value. And like eventually you start to see those patterns and you start to like recognize that like, oh, they're just, I get what they're doing. I get what's happening with their life and all. It's just bad. And then they were, and then the next question is like, okay, well, like how do you capitalize on this and they were taking like, I remember back then they were taking nine thousand dollars per point. So you could bet the whole board, nine thousand dollars. And then every time it would move, like somebody would hit a three and then move two points, you could bet the next two points that popped up for nine thousand dollars. Like, that was the kind of stuff that you could do in their early days. But yeah, you would like start to see these patterns and like, I think another one I jotted down was like Caesar for the first year baseball, they were doing like aggressive live. They weren't taking into account pitch count. And so like eventually you're starting, you just start to see these patterns of like, and they start to become obvious the more you're, you know, top down betting, there's always value on Caesars, you know, on the other one, it's no two count in the base that are loaded or and things like that. And so eventually you kind of just learn to attack that kind of stuff. Another one was like a fan dual props, like, I think Elf and Brett made that one famous, right? Where they're, their time decay on points was like, yep, not accounting for rotation. So you could just jam the under when they went out and they over when they came back in and we were on that for like two years before Elf killed it. But yeah, and like, other stuff that's like pretty obvious, like, directionally is like MLB position players and like, I think the difference with live is like, you have these very specific game states that are like very binary. Like, is a team going to put in a position player is a massive impact. And if you can predict that accurately, it's a work, right? Like that's just a massive edge and same with like NHL goalie polls. And like, initially the books are really bad at pricing that. And like, obviously, there's still some edges to be had there, but like, you need a base level model or something to kind of figure that out. But yeah, initially, you could just tackle that stuff head on. Yeah, I guess, yeah, I guess that's like more systematic, those are like systematic edges. Yeah. That's great. Yeah. I think like one other live edge that's like, you also get these like one-off situations where I'm trying to not give too much weight here, but like, I don't think this one though. Like in 2024, there was the last NHL game of the regular season. The flyers had to beat the capitals and regulation. I don't know if you guys were on this, but a lot of people posting about it pregame. They had to beat the capitals and regulation, and the red wings needed to lose as well. I believe that maybe there's one other team involved in there. But like, the cool thing about live, so if you're on that edge pregame, you're like, okay, well, the chance of it, you bet the three-way money line on both sides, you're like, the chance of a tie. It's really low in this situation because if they're tied, the flyers are going to pull the goalie. They need to score. And pregame, like a lot of people just drove the price on the three-way money lines. And to the point where there was no value, but if you got in on that early, you've got five to ten percent of the year or something like that, and there was a good edge. But with like live, if you are just looking at the screen, you can wait until all the conditionals are met, right? You can wait until all the red wings look like they're not going to win in regulation. And it's a tie game. And it's the third period. And like, how much can I deploy on this, knowing this information? Like, they are all running their standard models. You can bet. I was like, one book had like, you could bet third period or third goal in the last five minutes of the game at like plus seven fifty in the third period. Like just this, like insane, like, you know, hundred plus percent ROI stuff. And they were taking like ten, to win 10k on some of this stuff. And just like, you had so much time to work with your partners and get more and more down. Like, that's the kind of stuff that you can do with live that I think is missing. And with a lot of pregame bets is like, you can just get these hundred percent ROI opportunities that pop up periodically. Damn. Wish I hit any of the bets that you've talked about. I think we said this last week is like the recurring theme on the show is, I love having guests. We always get real interesting stories. But I leave the episode like hating myself. Yeah. Because every time it's not too late to get into live betting, man. That's where, you know, there's a lot of value there still. Well, so let me ask you, you had a couple of different stories and like ways you were winning at live. And I think live is interesting because there are like, at least someone who doesn't really bet live like different ways to generate edge. So like one to give examples like one would be just like a speed advantage. That would be like, you know, the most extreme would be like, you know, GPs favorite court siding, but other, you know, maybe capitalizing on one book being faster than other. Another way would be like different mod, like different books have different models. Another way would be like these sort of high leverage games states for lack of a better word where, you know, end of game or where one play can really change it. So maybe like, and then you girls have like true origination. Like you have a different view on what the probability is at a given time. So maybe like share what you think like a blend of like how you think where your edge comes from live, you know, between all those things. I'm sure there's, there's instances of sort of like all of it that you're, you're capitalizing on, but maybe talk about how you think, think about that. So you kind of, I think in a previous episode, you guys talked about like your bread and butter, right? Like what does your bread and butter just stay engaged? And for me, it's top down like you, if you were glued to the screen and you're watching game states change and you're responding to prices and things like that and you're clicking and always engage like that's, that's my bread and butter and that's, I'll make, there's a good amount of money to be made just doing that, right? And you can think of like various strategies around top down whether or not it's just like, I'm deviating to pity and clicking mindlessly or something like, actually, I'm going to bet independent using these for other models, right? And beat them this way. So as like levels to top down, but like at the end of the day, like that's, that's probably a good portion of what I do. And then eventually what, what happens, right, is you just get these like one-off scenarios, like I talked about that you need to be ready for, you need to have the infrastructure to attack and you just, you need to recognize it and know how, how, like, how good it is to get after it. So I guess it's just a little bit of blend of all that and I can't like publicly talk about some of the stuff I'm doing with that last 50 percent, but like, yeah, top down is pretty obvious. I think most people know that it's like a, an edge to be had with life currently. Wow. I cannot believe you spilled the top down is the edge. You're just like DKDFS. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But you got to be engaged. I think that's like the thing, right? So you got to be, you got to be doing something. You got to have your year to the ground. Actually, once like, just step up and have the 50 percent edges, but you don't, the person who finds those is the person who's like grinding the smaller stuff and has their nose in it. Like the person who, I find it very hard to believe that the person who, who had that golf edge, you know, with, with whatever tournament, talked 20 like, yeah, they didn't just stumble into it. Like they, they had to be in the streets, would be my guess. It wasn't just like some recreational, maybe it was, maybe it was, but it would track me. Yeah. Yeah. Right. So, um, I had one question I had. Yeah. So when you talk, I think like one thing I realized like looking through some actual betting, or some actual sports book data was like that you could beat sharp books top down. And then learn that like, you could publicize that a while. Yeah. Yeah. Like, you'll, you'll show like you can beat, you know, have good results against bookmaker and whatnot. But I was just like under the impression like the only way you could beat sharp books was originating. I think like, yeah, obviously that's like kind of a dumb opinion and like obviously wrong. And I'm not sure why I thought, I thought that so strongly, but I was going to say a lot of people think that. So like, what do you, like, was there a moment? Like, I did you at first be like, okay, so, you know, top down, that means you'll never bend a penny. You'll never bend into the Chris. So I'm just never going to look at them and when were you like, hey, maybe I'll look at those books and bet into them. I think that always, if you understand, like, if that's like one of the misconceptions with why I think a lot of people have is like, there's, there's some like, god tier level of life model or sharp book. Like, they're all, every line that comes up after a big play or, you know, or right before a big play, right? Is, is some level of like an originated model number that they just pop out, right? And so like a lot of the time, like, and this is back in the day, like if that was probably true, like two years ago, where you could probably not use some of these like other models to be some of these soft books from a top down approach. But like as time's gone on, they've invested a lot more in their models. Like, Fandall definitely has improved in certain areas and like, at this point, like if you have like, you know, Billy Walters even had like, he had what five originators for certain sports and he would basically find the ones that he had five, you have four line and one didn't, he bet whatever the force that he'd ignore that even if that other one was great. That's kind of, that's kind of the mindset I've taken. Because you got like all of these live models are bad, like they're all bad. You can pick apart. If you know live betting and you know these angles, they all make the same mistakes. And continually. And so like, there's no reason to put stock, obviously some people spend more money, but they're not a marketplace. They're just, it's like if you were able to bet golf openers at bookmaker for a hundred grand, right at open, right? You would just crush that's kind of what life is. Like, there's nothing unique about the opening. Well, no, I'm doing tomorrow. No, that yeah, go ahead, let's face it, I was going to ask. So I let's talk about maybe I want to ask about like how life has changed since you started to now. But let's talk about some of the challenges around life because we've made it sound wonderful at just printing money, but I cannot imagine it, it's, it's truly like that. So you know, I've in preparation for this show, I actually wanted to take test out some of these, these life softwares and see what it's like today. And maybe I'm an old man with slow hands, but one of the aspects that, that I realize is it's like, it's not that it's not like you just sign up and immediately like, you know, can click your way to free money. So like what, what are maybe misconceptions or challenges around it or like skill sets you have that, that allow you to execute that like someone new is really going to struggle with. Yeah. So I would say like I've also been doing this for, you know, almost four years now. So like my ability to, to do it and think things are easy is going to be different than somebody who's just like logging in today. But yeah, I, you eventually get very good and quick, like speed is a massive component to this because generally, especially if you're betting into bookmaker whoever, right, they move the line. They're starting to do it. Like if you, if you click, it'll, the line will move. So there is a speed component to have to process information very fast and that just comes with experience and so there's really like two ways to go. One, you can go the very high friction route, which is like bet into softbooks, but like that comes with a lot of obstacles and, and that's tough to do. Or you can go like the frictionless route, which is like betting into exchanges and bookmaker and those, those companies. But then you're going to be competing with, you know, people like me and, you know, Ethan and those guys that are like extremely fast using software to get those good lines and that liquidity. So that's like the main challenge is like how do you scale past, you know, that point. And I just want to highlight the speed part because I think if someone is not familiar, they don't, they don't actually understand what we're talking about here. So maybe like walk me through like what, not, I don't need like, I know people on gambling twitter seem to obsess over like setups and it's like, you know, the erase posting I set up who has the best set up to me is sort of ridiculous. But give me like a walkthrough of like what, what you're actually, you know, working with when you're, when you're live betting or like. So it depends on how you deal with it. Yeah. If I'm like top down betting, I would say like betting and something that's like just off-market and I don't think it's right. I will usually execute that wager within like two to three seconds. So like it is, you do have to be very, very fast at interpreting it and then executing. And I would say though, if it's like an angle I'm on that I know is going to pop up again or something, I'm literally sitting at the page with like the best set up of it ready to click. And it's like the moment of pops, boom, I'm on it. Speed is, speed is definitely. Yeah. Are these like one, one click bets or are these like you're punching stuff in just for context? But like just, I just click the max click on bookmaker, whatever max is. Or like, all the right, so you have multiple windows up, something telling you like what's going and then and then you have them all up and max clicking as they pop up. Do you feel like bookmakers like losing a bunch to you guys? It just just feels like I'm trying to think of like what if they make money live. Yeah, I mean, I'm interested to see like how much they're Ohio handle enough when we add them in prime, specifically like, you know, like, I mean, I just, yeah, I have my thoughts. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't think that would be that correlation causation. That'd be quite the ego. But I don't think they were doing particularly well before them, but I don't know. I mean, it's a tough model. It's so tough, high uptime live, like, there's a reason, like, Penny doesn't post that many college football lines. Right? They're locked on 80% of the games and things like that. It is a very, very tough thing to have high uptime lives. Um, I think the last one about live betting is, so there, I feel like live betting reminds me a lot of poker, like, I've recently been more at the screen during during games because of the exchanges. And I'm just like exhausted after like I'm, I'm so tired, I'm up late, you know, you're upset in it till however, then, you know, you got to get up on Sunday to feed your cat. It's just like an exhausting lifestyle. But like, how do you, you've been doing this for so long? Like how do you fight the burnout, the, you know, the being glued to your screen, like actually plugged in, um, being reactive thinking for like that long period of time, uh, you know, I, this is, you know, I'm asking for me almost, but I think a lot of people who are starting this as opposed to like running their numbers in the morning and like clicking in their bets a couple of times a day with long breaks and no time pressure. Like, would struggle to deal with the live environment? Yeah, I mean, I think at heart, I was kind of in a grind, like one of my, one of my best friends says that like he, he's like, you are such a hustler. I don't get it. And that's, I think I've always kind of been a grinder, um, from that standpoint. Um, I would think though, like, I did quit my job, right? Like it, so yeah, I'm, I'm not like during the day, like you were running models and doing all this other stuff. And I am taking my kids to school and, you know, going, hanging out with my wife and stuff during, you know, getting a lunch with her during that time, like the, the, I just restructure my life to basically be, you know, these are my hours I work and these are what I'm going in. And I think like this year, especially, I've been like trimming that way, way back. So there is some level of like finding the optimal hourly that I will be on and engaged. Um, and that has that, that's, that's kind of, that's kind of that. But yeah, no, it's a, it's a grind, definitely a grind, but you, you do get energy when you find something. You're like, I think Dan Campbell's going to go for two years. And like making that call and being right is just really keeps me going. And so they're really like you and your brother are like calling that guy's bluff really. Yeah. You're like, I think he, I think he's not it. I think he's going for two here and he goes for two and you like every time, every time a coach makes an illogical decision, pads, bankroll continues to go up. That's kind of like, oh, yeah, because of, yeah, because you need to, so that's a good question. You are, you know, from your background and how you talked about getting into betting, it really seemed like it was all, we'll call it, you know, math or whatever to, to go with the Mr. Peanut better's recent Twitter threat on all this. But like now talking to you, it really seems like there's a, a lot of, I would call like ball knowledge and whatever, like Mr. Peanut better, better would call it like in that thread, like what actually matters in sports? And it's like almost like what matters in sports, relative to the live model, you know really well. Well, I think it does feel like I was like, no, no, I think, I think you, in order to be quick, you have to anticipate like where the value is going to pop. And like that helps you get down faster. And if you, if you know one book always just has a model running, not thinking X coach is going to do X, like Y action, you can camp it and just like wait and like be ready and like, oh, yeah, they, they, they don't think they think he's going to make the, the right decision again. I'm going to pop them. Like that's, that's a very, you, we call it like, you know, the big to ball, ball knowledge is like the, yeah, the camping is very true because I haven't had like a lot of experience live taking, but there's this, I've maybe told the story before there used to be this golf tournament. That was a match play tournament. Yeah. I've had it up live and I may be you were in there, like being the, I've never done like this. Okay. Yeah. I mean, there's a reason, like live golf match play, it was like on Caesars for like 10 K of click limits. It was the craziest like week of my life, but, uh, and it was fun. It was fun. It was so different than what I was doing. But yeah, there would be like spots where like, they would, you could free roll them because like, they thought that the event, like a match between two players had to be one, but it, it didn't. So they would offer just a two-sided line that you could push if they tied, but they didn't realize you could tie so you could free roll them on like the 17th or 18th hole. Um, so I just, camped there. I just waited for groups to get up to that point. And then if they were in the right spot, you know, just hit them and then just camp like that's what you got. I mean, I've never had more, I don't think I've ever had more fun betting than that weekend. Uh, they're than that week. So there is some, there definitely is, uh, like you said, some energy to like, finding the thing and getting it, because it feels more like hand-to-hand combat than like, just being like, my model makes this 3%. Boom. I mean, I mean, you're just doing it also too, you're using your own, but no, I mean, I think it's like, I'm using my brand, you have, you might have some modeling you did in the morning, but at the end of the day, you're using a brain to outwit how models work. So you can kind of like deconstruct and reverse engineer like, they are weak here. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it's super rewarding. Should we talk, let's get back on Bookie Beats then, uh, before we get out of that. Yeah. Okay. I think the one question, we got it, I have it on the sheet, someone else asked it in the, in the Twitter thread, but basically like, can you talk about the decision to make Bookie Beats public or have some public facing capacity compared to being fully private. Like I think that is an interesting this, I mean, I'm sure there's, you've thought of through both sides. So I think like, it's really interesting to hear where like what you weighed there and what like, not just you, but the whole, uh, Bookie Beats team, of course. Yeah. So for Folkler, I didn't own any of Bookie Beats prior to July of this year. So, um, they approached me in like May and basically said, hey, like, the upkeep from both like a cost and times standpoint is like getting to be too much. Like, it's, it doesn't make sense. Um, you know, a couple of the guys that are running it, don't even bet anymore. Like, they, they just were like, we are going to either shut this down or we are going to scale it if we can build the right team. Um, like, do you want to be part of that? So, you know, um, obviously there's some like level of self-destruction I thought that I was going to do by having to scale it, right? Like you have to, you have to give it, give it a little bit away, right? Otherwise, you know, like, I entice people to, to join the product there. Like, we were at that time, like, that, the fourth, like I mentioned before, live odds aggregator that, that would have been public. Um, so like, my opinion was like, okay, well, everybody knows life, top down betting is pretty good. Maybe they might not know how good it could be, um, like the people that were really killing, but like, you know, I think at this point, like, it's not like it's a secret to the books that they can be weak there. And I kind of thought like, well, I would also want bookie beats to be able to use next year because that's my software of choice and the other three, I'm not particularly fond of for certain reasons. Um, so I said, sure, yeah, I'll join, I'll join help, try and scale it and, uh, part of that was like, I'm not going to give away everything, I'm not going to leave the, the whole cow, right? Um, but, uh, I will help entice people to join the product and, and grow that way. And I kind of saw it like, you want to like, spanky release spank odds, like, like, yeah, at that point, it was like, his outscreen was like, God tier, but like, there were like four of their outscreens at that point. And he released it. He didn't keep it private for some reason. I kind of looked at that and thought, like, well, everybody knew about steam chasing, so he decided to release it. Like, that's not, that's why spanky's not like a, no multi milling, though, because he's a good steam chaser. Right? It's like, right. Right, right, right. It's like, not an edge. He's, you know, he's still stuffy and he's making extra money with that and I got a piece of it. And, uh, yeah, I don't know. I think so far it's been a pretty good decision and I, at this point, I, you know, I thought I might regret it and at this point, I haven't, you know, I was going to ask, have you seen any, I don't know the exact timeframe of, of all this, but have you seen any differences or has it still been about the same? Is it more competitive now? Uh, I mean, that's a good question. I think in some spots, it's, it's gotten more competitive, but it's hard to say because it's been getting more difficult since I started into, I mean, since scissors was not taking pitch counter to account, right? Like, um, everything gets harder over time. And if you, like, the friction and doing this successfully is, is going to get more challenging. So, um, yeah, I mean, yes, probably a little bit, but, uh, at the same time, like, it's not bad only a piece of this company and basically, you know, being the one company, uh, that has not its fee that, that's crushing, you know, PM's is having a part of that's pretty cool. Yeah. I, I feel like, and we'll, I think it's a good intro into the, the PM section slash this last question, but I feel like you guys have, have really taken off the last two or three months, maybe a lot of like, yeah, yeah, no, I mean, I mean, and obviously like, um, obviously, it's been a good software for a lot, a lot longer. But I've started to notice a lot of like, great results from people on prediction markets and bookmaker, like the sharps, um, which is kind of like what people are looking for. He's not everybody wants to do understandably, like the, um, account gathering, yeah, we'll call it the frictional side, right, um, for whatever, like there's many different reasons people don't want to do that is all understandable. Um, so it kind of, in, in my opinion, it kind of like, revive the dream a little bit, like it was kind of, there was some motion on, on Twitter of like, oh, like I can actually go win on call for you. I can actually go win on, win on bookmaker. And I don't have to like, log into my friend's cousin's account and get staffed or like, think it's illegal or whatever it is. And, um, yeah. So my, my question with, with this and with PM's is like, what, what is successful result for bookie B to be, let's say in the next slide, two to three years, we'll assume this is outside from your personal batting, like just for bookie beats, the company. And, uh, you know, what part of that is PM's, you know, what is their affiliate work? Like, is it odd jam path? I don't know. I mean, maybe it's just like, build a good product and see what happens. But I'm, I'm curious, because it is very, I find, like I've tried, it's, I find it very hard to build a consumer facing product in the sharp batting space. Yeah. So, I mean, like in three years, we kind of, when we released it, it was like, our goal was to, you know, scale it and see, we had a small team, so we could adapt very quickly. And, um, you know, one of the things we quickly saw was, and I, I'm like, very heavily favoring that PM's are going to take over this space. And like the next two years, at least in the short term, like they just, there's so many advantages they, they have from like a regular sort of arbitrage standpoint. And building a tool, there's currently no tool on the market, in my opinion, where people are having like that level of success on, um, you know, beating PM's. And like, if you can provide that, and there's like nothing else out there, that's going to attract people. And like, not everybody needs to, like, not everybody needs to be the fastest. If you have a creative way of filtering data that you think you could be, like, maybe you think MGM is sharper room, like, starting some college best, but like, you're free to go, like, tackle that angle, um, on Calcium. And, and I think, um, like going forward in three years, I, like, we want to be the tool that people are using to beat PM's, if that makes sense. Um, and the exclusive one doing it. And, yeah, we'll see where it goes. Skilling's been going on right so far. So, are you, am I going to be buying a market-making software also from you in, in three years on PM's or whatnot, because it does feel like there's a lot of cross-over. Uh, it's, it's not like, like, I'm not taking, but certainly like, having your data plugged into my process feels like it would be plus EV on, like, when to pull and stuff. I guess you can't really do both. I don't know. But, I mean, I can't talk about like the internal business structure of like, where we decided to go with that kind of stuff. But like, yeah, I mean, yeah, no, it's not having the, having a, you know, like, in my opinion, God tier level API, odds for you is, uh, in the age of PM's, it's not a bad thing. Just say that. No. Someone give him call it, call it a, uh, a good, a good thing. Um, all right. No, it is really, oh, go ahead. It is really interesting because the point you brought up, I totally agree with that. Like, the, the sharp, or just sports betting tools, all of the way they were like, design, they sort of are at worst, invalidated at, or at best, like, invalidate at worst, like, actually harmful for like the prediction market ecosystem in a lot of ways. Like, a lot of these, like, top down type of tools will actually lead you worse off or astray in the prediction markets. So it's interest, it will be interesting to see how and who the sort of, like, winners of this next generation of, like, prediction market exchange tools are because I do think it's not as simple as, like, I don't personally think it'll be as simple as just like saying, like, oh, we're just going to switch over to our source of truth is in the, in the source code. And then our tool works, works super well. I think it, the tools and types of things that will help, you know, like, users like the odds jam of tomorrow for lack of a better term, I think, is going to kind of be different in a lot of ways and has to be different. So that's interesting to hear you all leaning into it. I mean, I know live is like a huge selling point of these exchanges, at least right now, it'll be interesting to see, like, you know, GP has its way, it'll be off with all the live, live traders. So I guess, I guess, I guess get it, well, it's, well, it's hot. No, but I did want to ask, ask about, let's get into the prediction market stuff a little bit, maybe in a more detail. Like, are you, I assume you're primarily taking on like the prediction markets today, or are there, or are there spots where you're also making, or, or, you know, like, there's definitely spots you should make live for sure. But yeah, I mean, you can make money taking to ever selections a very powerful tool, especially when it comes to live where it's just really hard, really hard to make live, really, really hard and can confirm. Yeah. So, yeah, there are definitely spots you should make. I'm not going to go into too much detail about when I'm making, but in where? But yeah, yeah, there's definitely spots you should make. But you can win taking, because I mean, this is the question we get all the time. So just can you reassure the audience that you can certainly win on call should you taking? Yeah. And like, I talked, I mean, you're not going to take, I'm guessing you're not taking against, you know, golden pants is golf model and winning, unless you're like, angle shooting and so on. You're taking against my hockey model and winning. Maybe I won it against your hockey model. But yeah, I, the thing with live, and I just went over like seven edges, right? Where like, there were it's like just absolute monster and like, and they're posting like, really solid equity on him. So if you can find an angle live that models struggle with, you know, they're, you can pop 20 K on some of these on some of this stuff. So like, you can get down a lot of money on some of these angles. And who knows if it'll be fixed tomorrow, but you know, you can keep taking while they're offering 15% ROI and stuff. Wow. Yeah, that, that's concern. I mean, I, I showed you pads, I DMed you the, the graph of the hockey in play. Yeah. It's not good. It's not good. It's a good spot to, I mean, part of that is working off what I assume to be a good pregame positions. But like it is, it's very, very difficult on there. And actually, you know what? Let's, because you told me you, you told us you're basing update before the show. I feel like we got to kind of included here in the PM section. It was about, um, court siding. And you know, I have, I've have my own campaign in here, but I've looked at us. Yeah, yeah, sorry. Because you were on my side not just two weeks ago. I was, I've always hated courtsiders. And I will, and like, and courtsiders have made my life as life that are terrible. Like, if I, if I am hitting a name, like, they, they have, I think exposed that like, life could be beaten by a lot of these things. And like, courtsiders get creative and how they do things. And it really has, has, has definitely made books realize that they're susceptible to life. Absolutely. So I've always kind of had a, had an out from, but I like a, you know, had it out for them. But it is interesting. I just, I'm more so thinking about like the future and kind of like what, what, like is Cal Street going to, uh, that go back and add a timer, right? And like, um, I think at this point, it is pretty interesting that they happen. They've really leaned into this narrative of like, literally they're advertising like, oh, the guy gets knocked out and the odds move instantaneously as he's on his way to the ground, right? Like, and so they've really leaned into that narrative. And I guess my perspective is like, it's, it's neither good nor bad. But like, I think in general, like, like, obviously, if those courtsiders do whatever you want, I guess, I don't, I don't know if it's legal or whatever. But like, um, it is interesting in that you, it is a new piece of information that you get that you did not have before. And, um, I don't think it's instantaneously like leverageable from the standpoint, and maybe before I'll they're doing of like actually using that info to then courtside, like a book that doesn't get a feed that fast or something like that. But, um, I think it's like the new paradigm. And I think that they're basically taking the stance of like, well, as a market maker, you should be flexing your liquidity based on high leverage situations. And I'm sure sport radar is already looking into like a kill switch, right? Where they, anytime there's a high liquid or high leverage situation, they basically push the signal to have all market makers pull all liquidity. And like, I think it's going to be a solved problem at some point. And they're like kind of forcing market makers to do it. And I just think it's interesting. And anytime, as well, I better, anytime there's change, it's, I kind of like it, right? It takes things up and it exposes new angles that you can attack. And like 100% uptime on CalChi is, is really nice. And sometimes courtsiders aren't right. And sometimes you can leverage that. Like there's, there's things you can do around it that I don't mind. I just say it's, it's change and change is generally good in this industry if you want to find a new angle. Yeah, I mean, obviously, I didn't, I assumed I wasn't going to really disagree with you. You know, and that, that's the thing. Someone, too natural, brought a question up, basically of like, will it just be a situation where the onus is on the market makers to like have someone at the game or whatnot? And, you know, obviously like for me or for like people who aren't that radar, that say huge lift, you know, like financially, operationally. But I also didn't really have a, you know, you could just say that's the case. I don't know what I would say to that. I'd be like, all right. I guess I got to figure something out. So I get it. And I, I understand, I, yeah, I understand why I think there's other reasons, you know, I think you also don't like Robin, you have to make Robinhood happy if you're call sure you're right. So if you're like, yeah, there's actually just like, we're putting it delay in here. They're going to be like, no, and then call sure you will have to be like, okay, we're not, you know, there's no like, there's, you can't just push back. I mean, I think realistically it won't happen. Yeah. Yeah, I was just going to say, like I don't, I think you're right that it probably won't happen. But I don't know if I would, if I was in charge like, it would, it would increase liquidity for the delay. I don't know if that's good or bad. But that's kind of like the thing, I guess I'm leaning on. But besides that, it's, you know, make your money if you're quartz adding it. I could, could see it, um, continuing. So I mean, you had something there. Yeah, I just, I think like liquidity will come eventually if they can figure out, like eventually I feel like it's a tech problem and we'll figure it out. If they're forced to, if there's that much record liquidity coming in from Robinhood, you know, and you can like, being able to flex liquidity on high leverage situations is, like, do you really need more than 100 dollars to capture some of this rec flow? That's like that constantly we're feeling. I don't know. I mean, like, I just feel like they're going to figure it out. And like, there's no, you have no right to market make on, like, I guess you do, they advertise. But like, there's nothing allowing, like saying that like you get all the same data and like, there's no, nothing stopping you from buying sport radar when if they come out with something like that, right? Like, a feed. So like, you know, I guess my, my perspective is like, just, it is what it is. And like, you just got to work around it. And, and it allows new opportunities to pop up. Yeah, for sure. And like all of the fighting I've kind of done, and we've done around quartz adding, I think, like, has helped. So like, I feel like there's some moat now, where if someone wanted to come in and now start offering something live, like, they would lose more than we lose. I don't know if that's enough, but like, at least it's something. And then we'll figure it out from there. But yeah, yeah, I agree. Like, I don't, I see this probably not going my way. And like, or, well, I don't know if it's my way or not, could be a blessing in disguise. But I, I, I, I believe in a year call she won't have a live delay. I'd say I take, I'd take no on that out of flip. Yeah. I also have the position too. Like, rec betters don't like timers. They really, like, you posted, like, are you coming to buy Robin Hood? Like, nobody wants a seven second timer to move out quartz, I think. And that's what you need. Yeah. You need seven seconds. Seven. That's so funny. I was like four. And someone was like, no, it could even be less. And I was like, I mean, I have no clue what I'm talking about. Like, four seems fine. Seven, I agree. Seven seems crazy. Yeah, I think I'm fucked. I think I'm doomed. It depends on the sport, obviously. I mean, it depends like how quickly are you giving that feed from wherever you're getting your data feed from. But yeah, in general, like, if you want a global protection from quartz, I can you like, I'm get that, I don't know, I haven't been like, that's not my game. But I have a gut feeling. It's about seven seconds based on what I've seen. That's not the gut. Nobody wants to make nobody wants to click on something. It has a second second. If you're a whale betting and you're like, okay, I have to wait seven seconds for this time of the process. Like, that is not an enjoyable experience. And like, I don't know, your guess will say. Yeah, I feel like as long as there's enough like rec liquidity, then quartz, I think it's just like going to be the cost of doing business of like, you just have to absorb that cost to get the good customers and that it'll just be who can manage that balance the best will be the winners. The only time, the only way I think they, I would agree with everything you both said, the only way I think they would make a change would be if that cost becomes so outsized compared to like the good customers, the rec customers, like if your, if GPs post in hockey and the only time he's getting filled is quartziders, he's going to stop posting hockey, right? And you're not going to have live markets. And then you would have to do something if you're, you're, you're calcium, right? So, yeah. So, well, my point was props because props is that situation. Like, the, the, how bad you can get beat posting life props. Like, there's almost no amount of rec liquidity that can like, like, like I've always said, they can imagine you're posting a, a goal scored market and every market on prediction markets is like by design going to stay up while the game is up. Now, well, there'll be liquidity there and not is, is a different question, but the market's up. So, they want to see something on the order books. And especially if you're putting on Robinhood, I mean, Robinhood doesn't want something with nothing on the order books. So, if you're like, hey, you know, here's this goal scored market in hockey. Let's put it up live. I mean, you're just going to get, I mean, one fill, one max fill will for like 300% ROI. Well, there's no way you're making that back, no matter, you know, what the, the rec flow is. So, you know, whereas on a money line, you're not going to get hit for 300%. I mean, you could get hit for, yeah, I guess 15%. Yeah, but ideally you'd be taking other action. I think the key point is what you said is you're not taking like rec flow on second defenseman goals in the second quarter, right? So, it's just, to me, it's like the ratio needs to be in balance, right? Sure. I mean, everybody's willing to lose some money sometimes if they're making enough on the other times, right? So, it's whether that, to me, that seems like probably the case, maybe today, if it could, how she continues to grow, it will certainly be the case. Yeah. It's just how long does that actually sustain when you get, when you get people like pads in his army, multiplying by the day, you know? So, I mean, I'm not, I'm not part of that army. I would, I will say though that like, there's like all of this, I feel like this problem can be solved if you have some levels of liquidity flex, right? Like, if anytime anybody scores or it's like near end game and you pull, you pull liquidity on anything that could happen in one play, right? Like, you're not going to have LeBron 25 plus points when he has 23. Like, you're not, you don't know how to make that, right? But like, I'm a touchdown market. It's like, in time, there's a touchdown boom. Somebody's about to score a boom. You, you pull all liquidity on the order book until you get the data on what happened. And like, I, I think it's a tech problem, and I think it's going to get solved. But, you know, I could be wrong. Let me ask a dumb question. How have you, like, how do you know what a, like a goal is going to be scored? Like, like, how would you, how would you pull that? How does, yeah, that's right. I don't know anything. You know, like that's it. That's right. That's what you're saying. Just have like data like in, like, like, have the fastest feed, basically. Yeah. You basically have a feed play on go. There is no reason why you should be having liquidity up after the ball is snapped, for instance. Pull all that liquidity. Yes. But it's, so that, that's why soccer and hockey are, I think, like, the hardest court-sounding sports because there's no set plays. Like, if the ball snapped or like, let's say, you're in the red zone, like, I'll, you just take all your touchdown props off the board. If, if the team on offense is in the red zone, and if the other team's defense scores a touchdown, then so be it, you know, whatever. Yeah. And it's a game of you. You might get sometimes beat. But in the end, the goal is to just win more than you get beat, right? So like, what if you, if you get courtsided, oh, no, we lost on a defensive, you know, pick six, and we got slaughtered. Right. Like, I think at some point, right? Like, the tech's going to get good enough that you can, you just help place happening, pull liquidity, and then you get the data on what happened later, and then you adjust the model and post back. And even with hockey, right? It's like the moment a goal gets scored, you hope that your data feed can pull liquidity faster than somebody notices a goal got scored. Like, that's the goal, right? That I have a feeling they're working on something like that. I don't know, get a lot of money on that. I think it's just a college code and iPad, we just have one, you have to combat the other ones. And it's actually not a tech problem. It's a, it's getting a college kid to get somewhere on time, probably. And then probably. Yeah, then you trust college kids, which, which I don't know. That's the other thing, like how good it even up pulling the liquidity. We talk about all the time. Courtsiders make mistakes, right? And it isn't, it is fun to watch when that happens. Yeah, I had, that's certainly one where I'll, I'll be, yeah, I'm okay. It's celebrating in court setting mistake. Let's see. What, okay. I think I have a couple of, we have a couple more PM questions. I want to get through quickly. One was similar to Thon, Thon, Mr, he asked a question, but how are PMs like factoring into your signal? You know, we're talking about kind of betting into them, but like what, how are they factoring into your signal now? And do you just see like a larger amount of your, you know, signal, so we'll call it like, devig to ball knowledge, devig to, you know, call sheet, polymarket, whatever, over the next year or so. Do you think like eventually they're just going to be the best live signals or? Um, I think in some respects, they already are for certain things, right? Like for the two to three seconds after NHL goals scored there, they are the most accurate price on the market. And, um, they are. So, and like we thought, I posted about, like, there's a couple sports that they are extremely fast at, and that's, that's like, there's some signal there. In terms of like, actually is, is SIG, or, you know, Caster Tray, I'm assuming most of the liquidity on their SIG, but, um, are they sharper than like the market on every single sport yet? No, are they sharp on some sports? Yeah, they were, they were, they were putting into like some kind of consensus fair. Um, but I think they have got a long way to go. Um, and I don't know, like it is, I, SIG has very smart people, um, and I imagine that maybe they might, that I'm guessing we'll catch up one day, but like, who knows how long it's going to take? It's a very, very hard thing to do. Yeah, and SIG is a big company with a lot of divisions that make a lot more money than their sports division. So, you know, it could conceivably, I, I actually have this hot take of them not being the, winner in sports market making, but it could be self serving, but like, I don't know if it's necessarily like, they're, I don't think they're necessarily set up the best for it, but it could be wrong. Yeah. Well, you know, hopefully before they, you think, they don't figure that out for a while. I agree. One more question on, on prediction markets. And then I do, I want to make sure we have enough time for all the, uh, listener questions. I think there's a bunch of good wins in there. Um, so you, you sit, you spoke like you're pretty high on prediction markets at least over the next two, three years. Like what, what do you envision? You're sort of split between, you know, sort of sports books for his prediction markets in terms of volume and profit and all that will be over the next maybe year or so. Um, and just how you're, you're thinking about, you know, the dichotomy between those two in the near future. Yeah. So I would say, you know, I got, I got in very late. I, I was actually, before I pivoted and think PMs are going to take over, you know, at least for the next two years and grow rapidly. Uh, I was very like bearish on them. I was like, how was, how was this legal? Like this is, this isn't going to last. Um, and you're not going to get, they're not going to get any true investors and then all of a sudden, like, and they're not going to get liquidity and, and I was very, very wrong. Um, but like, so I probably didn't like start looking at, like, hard until like last month on PMs and like figuring out the angles I'm going to attack. Um, and I am very patient. And like, for me, I like to be very sure before I start executing. But, like, so year to date, I'm like 98% sports books. Like very heavy, very little PM work so far. Um, next year, if what I'm seeing doesn't change, I'm probably going to be very, very heavy PMs. And, um, we'll see how many get released. But yeah, uh, there's, there's, obviously, there's some tax uncertainty with it and potentially benefits. And, um, it, it'll be fun to compete on that stage. There's a very, very big difference of like conquering all the friction, which I think I'm very good at. Um, and then having an environment where there's like, no, absolutely not even a time. Yeah. So that's like, it is, it is a different, different beast that I think I look, hopefully I can tackle. All right. Speaking of the friction that leads in, you're very good at creating the transitions. I don't know if it's intentional or not, but you're, you're natural. Um, the next section before questions we wanted to get through was, uh, the operation said, so you talk about friction and scaling on sports books like, how are you able to scale your operation just beyond your individual count? Obviously, like as much as you want to share or not share, obviously. Yeah. I'm probably not going to share too much here. It's like in 2022, I felt like, you know, being able to bet live and win live with some of the tools out there in the angles that were available was, was like the alpha and it was secret and I felt like, you know, I went to betbash actually in 2022, like to feel about how many people are actually betting live and there was like no one, like no one, and I was like, boom, my mind. Um, then like the alpha there, that was the alpha. And like in 2025, though, I don't think that's the alpha anymore. I think it's foot to like, you know, how are you executing what we're doing at scale, um, from both of getting down standpoint and like the technical needs to overcome some of that stuff. So, um, yeah, I can't dive too much into it but I will say like, I feel like I'm really good at like project management and like, like managing a lot of people and execution of certain strategies that we want to deploy. Um, and the needs of that. And, you know, yeah, like I say, like spanky, spanky was, you know, he didn't have a lot of success from steam chasing. He had a success from what he built in the project management around that. Right. So you had mentioned earlier that you work, I think you had mentioned you work with others. Can you, is there anything you can like share about that, your team or, um, yeah. So initially, I worked with others to, uh, like I legit didn't know anything about scaling in the ministry. I was completely alone. Like there was no, no, I didn't like work off the back of like pro-betters or anything like that. I like, we built it from nothing and I needed help to do it. You know, somebody to find some vetting partners, somebody to, you know, do some legal contract development, things like that. So, um, but you know, my partners have kind of like left the scene in a lot of ways. And, you know, frankly, it's like, I just, some of their services, I don't really need them too much anymore. And they're like, they're kind of quietly left and then, you know, but uh, I still work with a couple of other guys on like the trading side and getting down and things like that. But, uh, yeah. And I think the last one will do because you, you came onto Twitter and you wrote the post that SP talked about. And SP actually sent me that, um, I think before I was back on Twitter. So I had, he was like, we need to get this guy. Yeah. Yeah. I need it on the pod. And I read the post. I was even on Twitter. So it was obviously a big hit, right? When you came on, but like, why did you decide to become public? Because I think that's a, obviously something we all grapple with on, is it better to be public or private as a professional better? So what was that, that process when, I know you touched on the post a little bit, but like, if you want to just talk about it for people who are thinking about putting their name out there or putting their work out there at least, or not, like, why you think it was advantageous? Yeah. And I, you know, I still question whether, yeah, it was, it was great. But like, I think the, um, the benefit I got, like, I stayed in the shadows for so long. I was so afraid that like, somebody was going to find out, um, what I was doing, and like copycat me or my infrastructure and I like, I hadn't built all the modes that I need. And it was, like I said back then, it was like so easy to win. Like, I was afraid somebody, so afraid to, so afraid of my, like, edges leaking. Um, and now I think like, like I said, my office more in the friction. So I don't mind kind of like sharing some of the stuff I'm doing. And, um, that I, that decision to become public and kind of like, say that was, you know, there's less, less risk there, I would say. Um, so also too, like, I, I knew I was going to be partnering with BB. I knew how, or bookie beats. I knew I was going to like, my name was going to be out there. Like, people were going to know what I was doing. Um, and might as well kind of like, give some background on who I am. And, and like, one of the good things is like, I went to bad batch this year and I like, you know, I met like, met up with like, flop and we like had dinner and like, you know, I got to meet like, shipper and all these other guys that like, um, I definitely would not have met otherwise, uh, had I not, you know, made kind of blood, but blog bragging would go, just like, just showing a show that like, you know, I, I, I, I had success in this industry and, uh, you know, told people about it. You know, it's funny about that blog is like, you're like, yeah, you know, I've made, you know, seven figures doing this or whatever, but I immediately could tell from your writing. I mean, or maybe, you know, maybe I'm, I'm too trusting, but it's like, I immediately could tell from your writing. I was like, yeah, this guy's obviously legit, like one blog. I, I don't know why it is, but it's so crazy. Like, you can, how sometimes you just can tell. And like, I think that's probably what like, SP sent into me and I think like, I don't know. Again, I wasn't on Twitter at that time, but it feels like a lot of people were like, obviously, oh, this guy's legit. And it kind of like blew up. Um, and I don't know. It's like, do you think that because how, like, I think the issue a lot of people have when going public, too, is like, you can't necessarily like post all of your bets or your exact process or leak your alpha. But like, you do want people to know that you're worth talking to, like, or these smart people want to talk to you, right? So like, I don't know. Do you feel like that was a thought when you were in writing that post, like when you're like, okay, I'm gonna like be public. I want people to think I'm like semi-smart, but I'm not going to like burn the house to the ground just to prove that I'm winning better. How did you balance that? Um, yeah, I mean, I think you just talk about historical war stories, right? Like, if you, a lot of people are on like some of the same edges, like I talked to like Maple was on that same SGP first team to score and first basket stuff. And it's like, it's like, if you were involved with the theme, like, you would know that that was an edge. And that, like, you're kind of signaling to others, like, even though this is dead, you knew about it and you were on it. And, you know, I guess that's like, you, that's how you say, oh, you go through old war stories. And yeah, I don't know. I tried to do that a lot. All right, let's do it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No, I think that's good. And I think, and everybody else, the other, the other thing is everybody likes to hear, like dead edges, old war stories, whatever it is. Either like in a massacistic way, like SP&I, so we hate ourselves, and we realize we didn't get on it or like, it's interesting and it's always fun to, you know, it's like reading, bringing down the house, right? So ultimately, that's like a war story of a dead edge or like a semi-dead edge, I guess, you know, to all the card counting listeners. But yeah, let's hit the questions. Some have kind of been covered. Some haven't. Our first one is from one of our best questions asked question askers, punch in his 10 good questions. Card, he's going to get a free coffee. Bluey from Novig. He says, the current form of top-down live betting is obviously won't last forever. He says, obviously, pads. I don't know. I mean, that we could have an issue with him right there. How much faster do you all feel bookie beats at all? I guess he means like Audrey, whatever, accelerating us towards that future. How many years longer does top-down live exist as a meaningful earn if bookie beats at all? Bluey, we get it, you're smart. You don't have to keep using at all, privatized. That's a real man from academia right there using that at all. So I think the question is, if these are all public, how fast is it burning the edge and if they're private, how much extra rope does top-down live have? If we're assuming, and I think you should kind of speak to this too, that Bluey's right and that it won't last forever, but I don't know if I believe that. Forever is a really long time. I mean, the reality is it's changed its landscape in the last four years, like there's every year or something changes and it gets harder. But it doesn't need to exist forever. It just needs to exist until you can capture as much money out of this system as you can. Current strategies for using market data are different. Now, then there were six months ago and that'll continue to the change. Like I said before, I don't think having access to the fastest odds data will be value lists at some, like ever. I think other outside factors that like, like books know their weak lives in certain aspects and they're going to continue improving that model and their models. And then you also have, you're going to have like consolidation that'll hurt more than like bookie beats will the market. But yeah, every year the ecosystem changes, I think like last year, it was like sweeps joined and it was like, you know, we just like we're doing terrible things to flip and like this year's PM. So like, you know, I think you never know what you're going to get and like, yeah, could this all die tomorrow? Yeah, maybe. But like, I don't know, it's been lasted for four years and keep finding a way to make it worth it. So let me, let me play a little bit of devil's advocate though, because you know, like one book taking, you know, like what, like one person taking a million out of a book a year is a lot different than 50 people taking a million out a year from a book. Do you, did you make, like, do you, did you have any of that calculus? Like when, when you were deciding to take this public, are there caps on how many people you're willing to sort of like on board to this to make sure it still stays valuable for you and the people who are using it? How are you thinking through? So maybe you disagree with my, my, I guess, I guess my perspective is sort of like, you know, there are, there are literally three other tools out there doing this exact same thing that have significantly more users than we do. Like, like, yeah, is one person on our, like the top 10 betters, like reaching havoc on some books in our, on our platform probably. But like, would they wreak havoc on those same platforms if we weren't here? Maybe not as much, but like, you know, there's, this, we're the fourth one. I guess my perspective is like this was going to happen, you know, regardless, we just so happen to have built what we've built. And I don't know, I mean, we can get value out of that too. So yeah, I don't know, that's, it is tough. It's a tough question to answer it. So you gotta scale it and weigh it. Yeah, the, yeah, I guess if you're stealing from odd jam, we all win, right? You know, you're taking from me. So that's a, that's a noble cause. Okay, hoping you start sending the odd jam type emails, you know, like that. Yeah. I was at dinner with my wife and I to step away. You know, that'll be the next evolution. I'm excited for that. So your, leave your wife at dinner. Go to the bathroom. Hey, that's a real marketing, you know, you know, so if you ever want to take off, I think that that'll have a good success. Yeah. Yeah. And the thing is like, you know, you, you can now with a, you know, with a public profile and some of that PM money rolling in, you can hire all these great copywriters to just write these emails all day and make a ton of money. All right. Let's talk about Flop. So he asked why you're so open with your process. I think you've kind of shared that. Flop had mentioned like a lot of the people he know, like to, you know, I think maybe some Novik traders like to watch you or listen to you and whatnot. And you talked about kind of that already. So, you know, if you want to hit more on that, hit more on that, but he also asked, what's your number one skill? And we asked Flop this question. So he kind of seem chased this question from us, but that's Flop. So yeah, I think I have like number one skill. I guess it's just like how I've like navigated this ecosystem and like project management did it kind of thing and like grew it from where I began. I think a lot of people don't want to put the hours in to do that while like it's not fun. And I've like, you know, my back round, like when I worked as a chemical engineer, it was like a lot of that. Like getting the right pieces in place and realizing like to attack at scale, you need, you need tech and you need people and you need all the right pieces in place to go full bore. And I think that's kind of what I've excelled at. And I think at this point too, it would be very, very hard. If you walked in the door today and tried to replicate and rebuild what I did without me like literally giving you a blueprint, it would be very, very hard for somebody to do that. So like that's kind of my skill, I would say at this point. And also too, at this point, I have four years of experience, life, I think that doesn't hurt. It's certainly not. Dan, Chicago and summer or Chicago and winter worse. What a question. Yeah, I mean, the Chicago summer is when I'm not working and it's like 72 out and I can go, you know, yeah, it feels like a crazy question. No, I do say the first snow, Chicago snowfall is magical. So, you know, okay. SP, you ever take on that? No, I agree. I agree. I, you know, don't, don't live in snowy climate anymore. I'm originally from snowy climate. So yeah, I, I like to vacation to snow now, not, not live in it. But I would concur. There's something, there is something magical about it being snowy this time of year, whether it be Thanksgiving or a Christmas. So yeah, no, I think that's a good point. Could take. Okay, we got a question from Storm. He says, you, you have made some pretty anti-automation comments in the past. Curious if you could expand on that with regards to live dieting. So I actually don't know. Do you know what storms reference thing? I think he's, I'm definitely not anti-automation, I think, like, you should do whatever you have to do to win. But I think he's referring to a post I made. So, you know, like, and to, you know, clap back at, like, maple for, like, leveraging the points, but cash out thing. Yeah. Like, that's like, if I've done something very similar to that, so I felt like it was a personal attack on me. And I was like, well, I mean, like, you're like batting into, like, nobody can get down on challenge or tennis. Like, you're batting into so many PPH accounts that like, I don't have that infrastructure. I wish I did. That sounds nice. And I might reconsider what I'm doing. And like, but like that, that in and of itself is like, there's no thing stopping him from logging into bookmaker and clicking a challenge or tennis matches that. Like, he could do that. He's obviously doing it. How he's doing it. So you can make more money. And I don't know. I, I guess that's kind of, that was kind of my thing. It was just like, we all have our in order to be a professional in this place. You all have to do things that like, I don't know, somebody might see it's like, oh, that's kind of, and that's, that was kind of my point. But no, man, storm get after it. I know he's, I called Antonina Ruthless. And I met that as a compliment. Like, I really, I really like them. Like, that's the kind of attitude you need to win in this space. So I agree. That, yeah, aunt going after Thomas, who then went, Thomas, and then it was, yeah, maple was on our pod. That was a, there was just like this little period of our pod where like our guests were fighting. Not that Thomas was a guest, but like, it came up on our pod with aunt. And then maple came on. And then, and I was like, God damn, I love all of you guys. Like, you all just try and win like at the end of the day. And I don't see, you know, we wouldn't have anyone on here who I really felt like was like, super scummy, you know, like doing like, like something that was clearly like way way over the line. And of course, like, yeah, I respect him a lot. And he clearly has, you know, a good, a good moral compass. And you know, what he, where he thinks the line is, is where he thinks the line is. But, you know, I think, yeah, from what you're saying with storm, like maybe storms doing similar PPH work and didn't see it as a compliment. When I remember what you said, I thought, I also thought that that was a compliment for aunt. Yeah. You got this, you got stuff on their throats, man. It's not, it's not, he, money's not free out here, you know. That's just falling from the trees. Yeah, shake the tree a little bit. Like everyone specializing something. It's like, it's crazy. It's like, you know, you talk to like, you know, everybody's like, you're tackling prediction market and market making. And like, I'm tackling live and they're doing the PPH stuff. And it's like, everybody's got their little own ecosystem and just feels weird to hate on something that they've like so aggressively scaled. Like everybody, I don't know. I just feel like, yeah, I don't know. And the, the other is part of the maple story was that was a great story. Like, just like, I was like, wow, that's so fucking funny. Like at the end of the day. Just like, Shipper was a, Shipper was a trader and he was like, yeah, he's laughing. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, the guy who got yelled at was still is okay with it. Yeah. And in another great transition, we got a shipper question up next. I think Shipper is too. We'll start with the, we'll start with the background one. So Shipper says, what are the advantages and disadvantages of getting into the game late? Slash, not necessarily being from a more traditional sports betting background. Yeah. So I kind of touched on this before, but like the way I, the way our group scaled and did things was so unorthodox and unique. And like at first, it was painful and like we, like, ran into a lot of roadblocks. But like the way we developed our tech and everything like that is like so different. And our process is so different than like your average operations, horseback operation. And that's like, it's paying its dividends now because like some of our alpha still exists that we developed like three years ago. So like being in a completely unique situation, I don't know anybody in the industry. And he like talked about him specifically. He talked about like having like his ace fives, right? And like to get a count along Kevin. And like I, like I had to invent a lot of those and come up with them that like nobody else was doing to, to get the most of an account because of the way our infrastructure was set up. So that's probably the advantages. This advantage is like when I hopped in, I did not have the capital or infrastructure to attack some of these like monster edges early on. So that that would be the downside. I definitely didn't capitalize as well as I wish I would have. Yeah, SPI, I'm curious to your opinion on this because I think like everyone in this call has at least like worked traditional jobs too. And I do feel like the one benefit is that I guess you call it professionalism or just like ability to just like do the shitty stupid work of like you know, setting a meeting with somebody or like, you know, doing this every Friday. Like we have to update this every Friday or whatever it is. And it's like that does seem to lack in some of the like pure, I mean, I've been in gaming a while, but I've also been out of it. I think that was the blessing. And SP is a man of many talents, many jobs. So I don't know if you agree with that or not. But yeah, no, I definitely do. I mean, we talked about in parts like there's a you know, the people who you can make a lot more if you treat it like a job in a lot of respects and you treat it like an operation and it's well organized in a lot of respects. And I think it's probably a detriment to some extent. The people who, you know, came out of school just making a lot of money doing relatively low-hanging fruit stuff. Obviously, that's great in a lot of respects, but in some respects, it probably sets them up to not have the framework going forward to sort of like operationalize things, make them organized, automate. Like all the things that, you know, like a real job are really important and embedding are also really important, but I don't think a lot of people value as much, right? Because that's not what's fun. Nobody gets into vetting originally to like have a meeting, you know, feel get into vetting to like sweat some, sweat some game. So it really can differentiate like, you know, you were talking about here earlier on like, you know, different edges that many people knew. The people who made a lot of money betting it were the ones who took it really seriously and treated it like a job to get as much in as possible, right? There's a lot of people who probably know saw a lot of like SGP bad stuff or whatever. Like Magnet Day, the people who made the money were the people who treated it like a job. Yeah. Yeah. And I always thought like doing that stuff, I was like, well, because you know, growing, kind of growing up in poker, I was like after going out of poker and kind of you know, seeing a bit of the real world and coming back in, I was like, well, I know all of the just pure poker players or people who haven't really had real jobs, they're not doing this. So there's some like alpha here because they're not fucking doing this. I'm proud to see you. So I always felt like, okay, there's some edge here, you know. Okay, this is a question from Shipper that has some some moving parts. So Shipper wants to know what separates you from the kind of run of the mill top down live better. He called them clickers. I think that's a derog, I don't know. Is that a derogatory term? That's a derogatory term. Okay. That is bad as the lube. Okay. Yeah. Anyway, yeah, no, it's fine. No, I, uh, I'll introduce you. So he says, he gives a list. I'll read the list for the audience. He wants you to order these reasons. Uh, IQ, ruthlessness slash sickness, which I actually, I really like that, uh, them paired work ethic and it's different than sickness, which that's good distinction network, uniqueness of approach. I mean, he put other Shipper. Yeah, I guess this is a fill in the blank and you can rank wherever you want. We'll call this a wild card. Yeah. So I wrote, I did write it down. I did my homework. So I put ruthlessness and sickness is number one. And I think like when I see something I think as an edge, I'm like, I literally, I'm sick and I have man, I like, we'll like work on, like something, I get obsessive over obsessive over it. I'll work all night on figuring something out and like get a number and then be ready to tackle it in the morning. And I think like, I always have this feeling of like, you know, like we're running out of time and like attacking some of these things while they're alive, like and executing on it, like you, you are on a timeline and you talked about that professionalism. It's just like, we need to get this done. Get it across the finish line so we can execute. And like, I think that, um, that was like a good one. Kind of like, like flip, like, it was like, once we found what we were doing, it was like, how do we, how do we murder, you know, murder that? So yeah, like, and just that level of sickness, I think needs to do that. Number two, I put IQ because I do think there's like this, this, uh, minimum you definitely need to like get to that next level of being a money. So I think like, you know, I put, like, you need like a minimum one time. So like, think about like, outside of the box, like, who's sharp and just like, clicking someone had to say it, someone had to say it. Um, no, like, everyone wants to pretend anyone can do it, but we only can take one tenors in here. I mean, just they congregate at the top, right? Like the best people you see in here. Um, but, uh, and then, um, I did uniqueness of approach. And I think you kind of need it. The reason I put that below IQ is because you need an IQ too. Have a uniqueness of how you tackle something. And yeah, it's part of the pie. And then work, I think I put it as like number four, um, because I think like, there's a lot of people like that would rather do work on creating something than like, for instance, like just buy a tool that's already available. Like, I feel like a lot of my, um, skill has come from like, not working hard on stuff and just like outsourcing it. Like I think about like that, you know, that like, uh, SGP edge with the first basket. It's like, there was already like two or three guys like putting together decent numbers on first baskets that were being soft looks like, why wouldn't I just, why would I waste the time in building my own model when I could just copy them? Um, and then number five, I put like network because I literally had none. So like for me, it was like, like, I, I developed my own and it worked, but like at the same time, like, it took me a long time to get there and it wasn't super important. But I do think the other, I'm gonna cop out and say like, you need three of the five. So having a combination of, of some of them is, is, is probably more important than like any of them individually. As for you, didn't you have something where you're like, you need two of these three or something? Yeah, the saying I've always heard is you can be, you need to be smart, uh, on time or not like I ever heard of saying, but you need to be two out of three is effectively it. And I would agree with you in the sentiment of this is like the, the best bettors are not like, at least that I know are not just like pure IQ 160 or whatever, or they're not just like people who work really hard, they're people who have a blend of different talents. Um, because they're like, to me, they're like games players is the way I've always, uh, described it in like a good games player is good at all of these things, right? They're not just like really smart people. Those aren't the people who are good at games. It's like people who, who can balance different skills and what not. I can't remember my saying now though, I'm disappointed. I'll have to, I'll have to go back. It was good. It was something about like, it was, I know it was two or three and it had something to do with like, being fast, like good numbers. It's on time, good at your job and something else and you can be two or three and, uh, and, and have success in the corporate world. All right. Well, we'll let everyone know the third thing is if you're really not going to be on time, we'll need to tell you, um, we got, even Steven, is he, he's a, he's a bookie beacher maybe, he's one of our, yeah, I would say, our top 10, top 10 power, yeah, he's crushing on, on call. She's so, he asks you, um, do you have an end game in mind for profit or the sports betting? Are you trying to retire early? Um, yeah. I mean, there's a breaking point where like, if I can't make money doing this, I'm not gonna do it. I'd do this for the money. I'm not gonna be, you know, be around the bush for that. But like, I, uh, I used to dream about like retiring early and then the funny thing about sports betting is you have these three months off like every summer. Usually, no, I do because I don't really do too much baseball. And like, man, I go stir crazy. I could not retire early. I know that about me. I would just find the next thing and like, I like to build something unique and attack it and I wanted to have value. And I don't know whether that next thing is for money or for like pure passion. I don't know what it is, but for now, I'm, that's kind of where I'm at. Did you ever kind of battle internally? Be like, oh, I need to be somebody who would want to retire. Is I find that I have the same, I've had the same thought as you. Like, I actually don't, I couldn't handle it. But part of me is like, you should be somebody who wants to be able to relax. Like, like, I wasn't like, is that something we should work towards? Yeah, no, I, um, no, I, I'm very bad at relaxing. I, uh, I don't do well when it's like I have a going day and I'm just sitting down. I need to, I don't know, it's probably much of this regretting my wife. But, uh, yeah, no, I don't do it. The job is chilling. Something we should work on though. You're right. That's hard. Um, okay, we had Chone Figgins asked something that I feel like we've kind of answered indirectly, but if being the fastest is the most important skill for a top down better, what's the second? And do you think that this, whatever that you say, the second best important skill is will be the, still be the second best skill in five years. Yeah, I mean, I'd say if you're pure top downing, having a unique approach on how your top downing is probably more you is probably actually better than speed. Speed's obviously like super important. If you're, if you have a hundred people using the same exact filter and getting the same information and there's a limited liquidity pool, then, yeah, speed is, is paramount. But like, if, let's say you create a new filter that you're top using top down to find something that nobody else is finding, you can take almost as one as you want. It wasn't recent, obviously. So, yeah, that would be my second thing is think of something, think of something different than nobody, that nobody else is like. And I assume that that seems like a skill that will always matter. So that answers the five. I feel like that would still be relevant in five years. All right, and our last question from Louis, as a winning, as a winning top down live better, so he's classified you as, what steps would pads take to and how quickly does he think he could patch or limit his own edge if he worked as a sports book slash internal PM trader? I don't know if this is a job offer. He's trying, yeah, he's trying to have, he's trying to have, he's trying to make something happen. Well, I'm not working out. There's more to that question. He has the three part. Yeah. Oh, the fall, the fall love to the fall love to the fall. Okay, right. Yeah, I only had the first part. He said, understand, you know, if you don't want to answer, but shoot or shoot, also had a great combo privately with Chris recently curious where pad stands unbiased question is live top down monkeys. Yeah, another derogatory term we have clickers and monkeys, top down monkeys are not currently printing on no big brag. This is advertisement. This is a job. Okay, I think, I will say, I don't know what he's talking. I mean, there's plenty of trust me. There's plenty of people that I know that are using top down strategies to be live. But I will say, it depends on what the goal, the answer is first question. It depends on what the goal of the book is. If the goal is to identify a winter, a winter and kick them out, I'd be like shipper, level good. I know I would be, I'd be just like kicking people out so fast. But yeah, of course, because I'm like, I know the edges that I'm hitting. Of course, I would be able to hit kick people out that are using that same, the same solos, same techniques. In terms of actually like fixing the process or the model to do it, I probably could direct and say like, well, you don't want to post there. Don't do that. Like, there's definitely things you want to, you want to be back off on or at least move direction in a price with. But yeah, I mean, but like, that's for a soft book. If you're like a PM or a market maker, like, there's obviously a balance of like, you want to have enough liquidity that you get good rec low. And like, there's a balance, right? You want to try to get more wreck action and beat live better. Good enough that you're making money. So like, and it's kind of no big in particular. I think I'll clap back a little bit and I'll say like, no big is not particularly interesting to a lot of our users because of they have a seven second timer and like 750 bucks. And like, on NBA sides, I think sides are tools for live, which like, that's just not particularly interesting to me when like, you could get a lot more with a lower timer at other spots. So I think like a better question in terms of that would be like, do I think I could lower friction on there and get higher liquidity levels to increase, handle while not sacrificing like any ROI on the margin, right? And still getting the positive ROI in the margin to make more money as company. And I think like, I could, I, there are definitely spots where I'm seeing why aren't you posting more liquidity here? You know, it's just sort of like an interesting, like how much friction do you want to add, do you want to kick out as a market maker or an exchange, do you want to kick out everybody who's winning on your platform or do you want some toxic flow, a minimal amount so that you can increase wreck action. It's a tough answer, but I think, I think I could do things down how they're currently handling it to do that. But anyway, that's a fun question. I'm a monkey. I feel like you'll get, you'll get asked, you'll see, and you'll be the monkey consulting for no big, but have you ever, have you ever considered like, like that direction, like, like, beat, like, beat, a beat, like some, some sort of solution for these companies, like, has that ever been something that's crossed your mind to try and like, help the actual companies? I mean, why would, like, why would we, you know, like, I mean, if we, like, let's say, like, they couldn't pass enough to, yeah, some people, well, I mean, some, a lot of people ask this of, like, Ed Miller's company, for example, and I think, you know, the answer he would, he would have given is that the ceiling is higher. I assume this would be the answer he gives, like, the ceiling is higher on selling to, like, a company, or helping a company, then, like, a consumer product, for example. And I think that's generally true. I understand with the betting, it becomes, like, more blurred for you all, like, your actual betting PNL is in the consideration as well. But I would assume that's also true for, like, Ed and Matt there. So that's just like an example. But I think a lot of, you know, like, if I had some great, like, I'll give another example. If I had some, like, perfect God-level SGP pricing for some sport, it would at least cross my mind to sell that, to a sports book. And to, like, see what the offers are in determined, like, can I actually make more money this than betting? It would at least be, like, something I would consider. So I was just curious if it was something you've ever thought about. I mean, yeah, I don't, I don't know, like, make enough, I don't have enough ownership to, like, make exclusive decisions about what the company chooses to do. But, like, I would say that if, like, you know, somebody came across us and said, like, here's a billion dollars for your, your API, like, would we sell it, probably, you know? But, yeah, like, at this point, you know, no, I mean, no, like, we're making enough money as it is, just betting into it and leveraging the API ourselves and, and, and, and both betting. So fair enough, fair enough. Last, last questions to close us out. The first one is a hot, a hot take that you have that, that the people of gambling Twitter, I mean, our bubble, you know, not like the, the mouth breathers would, would disagree with. Yeah. So, um, I thought about this one. I think I, I am naturally like, I'm not on the right podcast, apparently, but I'm like, naturally, more risk averse than I would say, like, the peers at the top are, I tend to think hedging, if your goal is to maximize bankroll growth, I think hedging has like significant utility to do that. And like, I remember when Rufus posted, he posted that, like, long post about, like, on the second day of a golf tournament or whatever, how like, it was actually better for bankroll growth to hedge out on some, like, EV minus play, um, to increase bankroll growth. And I like, I've always kind of intuitively had those, like, concepts or not. Like, of course, like, your equity is changing. And I think this comes from being like a live better where it's like, it's so easy, typically for me to find a spot, to bet, bet something back. Um, and so, like, if there's, if there's like, you know, my models suck, right? So like, you're easy, it's easy to find a spot to hedge out and you can find a zero EV spot to do so. But like, you know, I never, like, I guess that, like, as we go on with CalShi and you can market NAIC and hedge out of some of your positions for, like, zero cost, um, that has a lot of utility, especially, like, as we approach, like, 2026 with the new tax law, um, depending on how you go about, you know, with your CPA, like, what strategy you use for taxing, like, it could be the math on hedging could be significantly different. Um, I don't know, I just should be a tool in your toolbox. I actually, I think it's a great hundred percent. I think it's a great point because, especially today, because the point you brought up about the, the cost of hedging has never been lower and easier, at least for me, like, I have a personal, I've always had a personal aversion to it for sure. But even I find myself using it more and more because with the exchanges, it's, you can oftentimes get extremely lower, no cost, like, to hedge out. Whereas, you know, in the past, you had to pay, like, 10% or whatever out of sports, but that gets some sort of hedge. So I definitely think that is a, a sharp, um, point that, uh, that is especially relevant today, more so. And I love live betting aspect, also makes sense as it's sort of like, you have way more opportunities, probably to hedge than like a pregame better, um, and get out of positions. Yeah. And yeah, I think the other thing with, like, what, what Rufus talked about or whatnot is when, like, there's some, there's some math that goes into, like, knowing that x percent of the time you'll have a spot to hedge at neutral EV minus 0.5, you know, whatever there's this whole decision tree of, like, potential feature edges that would influence, like, what your actual bets should be. You know, it influenced it in, like, it's bigger than what Kelly would say it should be. Yes. And that happens live a lot, right? If I'm hammering something, I know it was like a 30% ROI play. I could, you know, as long, like, I'm confident the market will swing back the other way and be closer to fair later on that I could hedge out, right? Like, that's just, that's how it works. And you could, you could offer, like, minus 2%, and if it's really, like, you get over your skis and it's still fun, right? Like, like, it doesn't have to be, like, both sides don't have to make money for it to be, like, like you said, a tool in your toolbox. Yeah. Yeah. And the tax thing, I think what you're alluding to is, like, accounting, like, session, accounting, potentially, and, you know, if your session is a day and you're arming, like, you could conceivably never have a red day and it would be taxed just like any other, it just like it is in 2025. That'll be interesting, too. That could be a real boon for, uh, Bucky Beats, the tax-efficient betting strategy. Yeah. We'll see. We'll see how PM Joe went. What is your CPA recommend on how to handle PMs, I think is going to be? Oh, my God. I can't even fucking deal with that Twitter topic. I have my, I have a very, like, I think like those people, she also shut the fuck up. Like, why do I explode it? And I like, yeah, but like, if we do my tweets, I'm like, I just, I get, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Um, uh, okay. Let's, so Bayesian update, you gave yours. I don't, you know, I don't know if you had, if you wanted to give another, but I can, uh, I can give mine. It's a AI take. I'm out on AI. Um, I think it's a great Google replacement. Um, and that's it. I think I'm not really afraid of it taking over the world. And the incentive seemed terrible for it. Open AI is deciding, like, it's already lobbying for like a government backside. It just feels like, just like a total sham of an industry at this point. And, uh, yeah, I'm, I'm calling the top. I know it's not like a piping hot take because there's others. There's a, there's a growing segment of us, but, um, I was very impressed with the AI, like, at release. And I certainly had like terminator-esque thoughts. I'm, I'm slowly kind of pulling back to a more, um, it's a good tool. I use it every day, but I'm not to, uh, I'm not like, yeah, I'm not too afraid of, uh, Skynet and whatever. Did your, did your AI of choice just hallucinate today? And now you're just tilted about it? Or what? Well, I mean, yeah, I have some issues with chat GPT and how much I have to tell it, um, to get my code correct sometimes. But I mean, that's, I could, yeah, I could see it in your eyes that it was a specific disdain towards one event that happened this weekend. Um, yeah, whatever. But it just, yeah. And it's, I'm not even going to say unrelated because it is related to that. That's all I, that's all I can say. All right. I can give mine quick and then, and then pads. If you have any, any additional ones, I know you gave one, but if you have any additional ones, you can, you can share. Mine is, uh, mine is related to, uh, zone two running. So I, for a long time, I thought all the zone two stuff was, was, you know, woke, woke, um, you know, crop a ganda that they're trying to tell you and for people to not, to, to not exercise hard when they get out there. Um, I've been doing more of it. I've been noticing a difference. So, um, I, uh, I'm updating my belief on that. I, I think it, uh, it actually, maybe, maybe the people weren't lying to me. So is zone two, like when you can run and like hold a conversation, basically, like slower. Yeah. Okay. Yes. Got it. Yeah. approximately. Yeah. Got. So doing more of that to, so it's been good. That, that, so that, that's my update, not to run to, uh, pure exhaustion every, every time I step outside. So, do you have anything? No, I just wanted to comment on both of yours. That, that is a great take. The zone two is, you know, as, as, you know, I'm, I'm an old man with two kids now. And like, is, is where I live. And I, and I, and I thought so many injuries, exercising growing up, like trying to run a half marathon and bust money. That was zone two is where it's at. GPs, though, that is, that is, that is a crazy take. I use AI so much in my workflow now. It's, like insane. But I'm not saying I don't use it. I just think it's cap. It's cap. It just rolled out in my wind. Specifically tilt it. It just rolled out my windies. You can order through AI now, you know, like it's, it's gonna, it's making its waves. It's just slow. Let me see. Fair enough. We'll see. We'll see. You're probably, you're, you're probably right. But I just have a personal gripe with my chat GPTS of this week. So, you know, these are not, these, these are very emotional takes. That's the point. They're not actually supposed to be Bayesian or well, not out. There's supposed to be emotional. You're just really something where angry at that on the week is, is what they said. That's what the shifters was. He's like, I hate how everything stopped. I'm like, is that an update? I don't know. No good sandwich at all. That's the concept. Right. That was one of those absurd things. I know. Okay. I'm glad we have a fellow Chicago in to refute that. Yeah. Yeah. That get back. God, that's pretty good. He's like, there's no way you're going to the right spots. All right. Well, Pads, thanks for, thanks for coming on. This was a blast and appreciate you, you know, making us your, your first podcasts, you know, my first podcast I hope, you know, is it good enough? Maybe you'll go on another one day. Maybe, you know, you'll team up with your childhood hero, Jeff Mollon, get on about the process. I don't know. But, you know, it could hopefully is a good enough experience. And yeah, where, where can people find you? You're on Twitter. You're on Twitter, obviously. Yeah. Where should people Yeah, Twitter is basically it. Yeah. Feel free to DM them. I respond. So, the game's open. Sweet. Yeah. Well, yeah. You'll see Pads as Twitter in the show description. Thanks everybody for listening. And we will see everybody next episode. (upbeat music)