Democrats won big on Tuesday. What happens now?

It's considered this. Where every day we go deep on one big news story. Today huge midterm wins for Democrats. Not only did they take back the US House and the Senate, but they flipped seats that were considered solidly read not so long ago. Like Texas, where James Talleriko just won his Senate race. We just took back Texas. And Kansas were Adam Hamilton just won his Senate race and deeply read Kansas. The heart of America. I want to model what it looks like when thoughtful people actually work together to solve problems, especially in much of each other. Democrats also flipped a number of House seats, retaking that chamber. Something Republican leaders were coming to terms with last night. Here's what House Speaker Mike Johnson said Tuesday. So it only happens twice in 90 years that a sitting president has picked up or held seats for his party and that first two-year cycle. And there's a lot of reasons for it. It's very, very difficult to overcome. And it looks like history will be kept tonight. It was also a night of firsts. To name a few, Democrat Kisha Lance Bottoms won Georgia's gubernatorial race, making her the first black woman to be elected governor in the United States. Democrat Gina Inohosa became the first Latina woman to be elected as Texas governor. And New Hampshire elected the first openly gay male senator Democrat Chris Papas. Consider this. It was a historic election night. Lots of moving parts will wrap up the big themes and ask what comes next. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly. It's considered this from NPR. Unbelievable, unprecedented stunning. Just a few of the words being used today to describe democratic victories across the country in midterm elections. So how did they do it? And what might democratic control of Congress look like? Those are a couple of the questions I'm going to put now to NPR White House correspondent Emily Fang, congressional reporter Eric McDaniel, and senior political editor and correspondent Dominico Montanara. We got a whole team here at Dominico. I'm going to throw you the question that I had waking up this morning. Did did the Democrats win or did the Republicans lose? Yeah, it's not really an either or clearly the overriding factor though was Donald Trump. I mean, his unpopularity, the war in Iran, rising prices, the growing gap between the Uber rich and the middle class. I mean, some $12 billion spent on this election while other people are struggling to buy gas. All of that together created a huge backlash. Maybe call it a Trump lash. Democrats, though, also did recruit very good candidates. You don't win in places like Iowa, Texas, Kansas, as Democrats, without candidates who can make the most of the moment and be good fits for their states. They showed real level of authenticity that will give them a big opportunity to show what Democrats did wasn't just a big midterm asterisk. And one more to you, Dominico, because we've been talking a lot you and I about polling these last few weeks where the polls going to work. Could we trust them? In the end, they did all right. In the end, they did do okay. They pointed in the right direction. If anything, they underestimated democratic support. But we don't know how many people decided late after when the polls had been conducted before the election. And things usually do break in one direction in midterms. It happened in 2006. It happened again in this election. Polls predicted Democrats plus eight on the generic congressional ballot. It wound up being bigger, closer to plus 13, which is massive. And no one would have believed it beforehand. Even with the underestimation, all the signs were there for a pretty big wave with what the polls were showing. But people were rightfully cautious. Given the polling errors we've seen over the past decade that had underestimated Republican support, it's just very difficult in this age when there's been such a major political realignment to poll. Eric McDaniel, you cover Congress. Lucky you. Here's my question to you. What happens immediately? Because Republicans still control the House and the Senate for the next couple months. Does anything change between now and January? Well, I mean, it only gets harder for Republicans, right? They've got a narrow majority right now in House. A small majority in the Senate, but good luck to them getting everyone of those folks who lost back into Washington to pass legislation on a party line basis. There's not a lot of incentive to come back to town. And that's important stuff. That's government funding. That's more money for the Iran War. They also have to figure out what their leadership looks like next. Our friend Barbara Sprint is reporting that current speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, Republican of Louisiana, he won't seek re-election as the top house Republican. That sets up a battle between at least two folks, Jim Jordan of Ohio and Steve Scalisse of Louisiana. Jim Jordan's pugnacious. He's a brawler. He could be dispositionally well-suited to counter Democrats investigation heavy agenda. Scalisse is sort of a party man. He's a committed Trump ally, but generally seen as less pugnacious than Jordan. But in this speculation on my part, I think there's probably an appetite for someone willing to take a more Trump skeptical stance as a party leader, right? Given the molly-wapping voters just delivered the party because of the president. Yeah. And then agenda, I mean, how do we expect Democrats are going to use their newfound majorities come January? They'll act on the things they can't paint on. That's cost of living. That's perceived political corruption. They talk about cost of living from health care to housing. But with Trump still in the White House, I don't expect that those bills will absolutely become law and perceive public corruption, expect bills on lawmakers stock trading, and then investigations into investigations into investigations every part of Trump's life from his administration's agenda and the extent of his relationship with the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, the likely incoming House oversight chair Robert Garcia, Democrat of California, posted on Twitter last night, simply lawyer up. Lawyer up. Sounds ominous. Emily Fang hop in here. What's the mood at the White House like today? Yes. I am at the White House today. It's quiet, but it's also surreal. And that's because the president has had one public event so far today. And it was not about the election. It was to talk about his East Wing ballroom construction project. He had hundreds of construction workers who were building it come in. And at this event, he spent most of his time talking about the quality of the marble that he was using and his new helipad and really not about the the election. However, last night, a White House official told NPR that the mood watching these results come in was, quote, defiant at the White House. And then today, Trump's true social media account shared a picture of a red hat with the word veto written on it because Trump has said he is going to veto most bills brought to him by a Democratic Congress. More broadly, the sense I get is the mood in the in the Republican Party is one of confusion and of soul searching. As my colleagues have just pointed out, these midterms were a big rebuke of Trump himself. He has been quick to point out. He was not literally on the ballot, but voters rejected his policies, you know, his economic policies and tariffs, the war in Iran. And even his own vice president today, JD Vance, broke with Trump and wrote on X that he thinks one of the primary reasons behind Republican losses was the war in Iran. So today, when Trump was celebrating, you know, the last steel ceiling beam that was being put in place in the ballroom project, reporters asked him if you regret it, perhaps the Iran war costing the GOP, the House and the Senate. And he said this. Probably it's true, but at the same time I've had it to do again, I'd have to do it again because long term, it's the only answer you can't let Iran have a nuclear war. Interesting. So, I mean, Emily, is there any sign, any indication that President Trump might be willing to change course with the war in Iran? He seemed to stop in his stance a little today. He said today he could end the war, quote, any time he wanted. He said last night on Fox and Friends that he would still strike Iran, though, if Iran, quote, does not behave, but also that the two countries could have a diplomatic ending to this, that they could sign something to end the war. He has warned that any new major strikes would happen after the midterms, but he's already said he will not use nuclear weapons. He told political last night he does not need to use nuclear weapons against Iran. Eric, back to you, one of the outgrowth of the war in Iran has of course been high diesel prices, high gas prices, affordability, affordability, affordability, which was a huge factor in the election. We're told. Yeah, I mean, congressional Democrats do much about that. Can they bring prices down when they aren't going to control the White House for at least two years? I mean, let's see, right? Democrats can send bills to the President's desk, but they can't make him sign. That said, they can make a real stink about the fact that they've made changes. They say would be positive for the American people and that the President is a standing in their way. That kind of public pressure could matter. The President wants to be liked. He signaled some openness to deal-making and there's leverage like government funding, getting rid of the filibuster, confirming the President's picks to various posts that could help grease the wheels of deal-making, but it's not going to be easy for Democrats, but I don't want to pretend like movement is impossible either. Do Democrats feel like they have a mandate? Did voters give them a mandate? I mean, I don't know that there is such a thing as a mandate in today's political environment, right? This was about the President, 38% approval rating, 70% of the public pived about the Warren Iran gas prices up 40% year over year. Democrats had the right message about how to address it, but their favorability rating as a party is still minus 14, Chuck Schumer's among the most disliked men in America. Dominico can talk about this more, but last night saw huge swings across demographics, groups that had swung to President Trump in 2024, and so now Democrats have to do the hard work, convincing those folks to stay in their corner. This isn't a captured electorate by any means. Yeah, this is the problem, Dominico, right? With you win an election and you inherit the problems and they become yours. What what risks come with these winds for Democrats. - I mean, right now, Democrats are the dog that caught the car, so can they drive? I mean, they can do a lot of things here. They can block judges and cabinet members. They can stop Trump's legislative agenda, whatever that winds up being if he would have wanted to do anything, but they really have to be careful on how they message this and not to over-promise and under-deliver. I mean, that's something voters have become all too familiar with from politicians in Washington. The reality is, it's unlikely Democrats are gonna have a real good faith negotiating partner in Republicans and trying to get big things done. And it's looking like Donald Trump is not wanting to be a Bill Clinton-Newt-Kingrich style triangulator. So, you know, look to the states. Democrats flipped a bunch of state legislatures and will have trifecta in state governance in some key places. So while Washington maybe will be mired in inertia, it's the states that will be the incubators for policy. And we'll see how those policies are received by voters, particularly in purple and red states. - Oh, all right. That's one thing to keep an eye on. Let me do a quick lightning round and just run through what else we should be watching for as we try to make sense of what just happened, Eric. - I'll let my colleagues take the serious stuff. I've got a fun one, non-voting members. There are more than a million Americans, like many of us who live in the city who lack voting representation in Congress, but there's a fresh, faced class of new non-voting members from the Virgin Islands, Guam, and yes, Washington DC, going to the Hill to advocate for civil rights for those they represent. - Excellent. - Yeah. - I mean, 2028 starts now. January and February, we're gonna see announcements probably for the presidential candidacies and Trump and this Trump lash. How is that going to reshape the Republican field? I guarantee you, there's gonna be more people running now than they then who would have before. - Trump lash, we shall watch for it. Emily, you get the last word. - Two things for me, given that the economy and gas prices are concerns for voters, the easiest way to address that would be at to end the war with Iran. So will there be serious diplomatic negotiations again with Iran and a second thing? And about two weeks, Trump heads to China. He's gonna meet with a Chinese leader again, maybe even Russians, Vladimir Putin. So I'm curious, now that he's more constrained at home, will he try to make some kind of grand foreign policy bargain abroad with these heads of state? - Hmm. It's in peers, Emily Fang, Eric McDaniel and Dominico Montenoro, thanks to all three of you. Please go get some sleep now. (laughing) - Great to be here. - This episode was produced by Kai McNamey with audio engineering by Ted Meabane. Our director is Jonas Adams. They was edited by Tenbeat, Air Muse, Kelsey Snow, Rebecca Metzler, and Patrick Jaron-Waden-Anne. Our executive producer is Courtney Dornin. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.