Democrats Score Surprise WIN as Republicans Start to Freak Out

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We were together doing Chris Hayes' show last night on MSNOW, and I feel like everything's changed since we last spoke. What the fuck happened? Did anybody, including David Crowley, the ultimate winner, see this happening? Well, my sense is that Crowley felt something happening on the ground. He was getting bigger and bigger crowds, people were enthusiastic, he was getting texts from people, like, you know, he could feel energy. Now, of course, Francesca Hong could also feel energy, and both of them were right. There was a lot of energy for both of them. The thing that the polls picked up was that Francesca Hong was going to get about 40% of the vote. The thing that no polls picked up is that there were people who were still making their decision all the way to the end, and it looks like they just overwhelmingly went for David Crowley. And that, you know, I don't know whether this happened in the last 96 hours or exactly when it happened, but there was never a point where anyone had a majority in the polls or in the final vote result. They both got, like, around 39%. The thing is that it was a four-way contested field and there were two other candidates on the ballot who had dropped out. Three? Three other candidates on the ballot who dropped out? There's a lot of in and out on that race. We'll get to that in a second. There's a lot of in and out. A lot of twists and turns. A lot of complexity. And it really did come down to the wire. And I think the thing that's so striking is that, you know, it was a primary where people were making their case. At the end, there was, you know, some amount of contrast. But the day after, like a few hours after, you had Francesca Hong and David Crowley and Joel Brennan and Kel DeRoy as the four candidates who went all the way to the finish line having brunch at a diner in Middleton, Wisconsin, actually, you know, eating Eggs Benedict and waffles and, you know, different delicious breakfast foods with, you know, Senator Tammy Baldwin and Congressman Mark Pocan. And the whole crew got together and it is total unity. And that, like, what I love to see, no matter who wins the primary, is this sense of like, okay, we're going to throw down, we're all in this together, sprint through the tape. And Wisconsin is doing that exactly at this minute. Yes, spoken like a true former Democratic Party chair of the state. I love to see Democrats getting along and breaking bread the day after a contentious primary. This is David Crowley. And Francesca Hong speaking last night. You've heard a lot of people try to define this election as a battle between the left and the center, between progressives and the establishment, between insiders and outsiders. That narrative misses the entire point of what we're doing. And every one of us has something much bigger to unite around. And that is keeping MAGA extremism from bringing the chaos we see in Washington into our neighborhoods, right here in the state of Wisconsin. And we are going to unite. We're fighting for our communities whose land Tom Tiffany happens to be selling to big tech and big oil. Where it's Tom Tiffany's Medicaid cuts that are shutting down our hospitals. And in 11 weeks, no matter who's on this ballot, y'all, we are going to fight to win for one another. Yeah! Just for clarification, that was Dave Crowley speaking after he won. And that is Francesca Hong before the race is called. Opening the doorway, though, to, you know, the fact that she might not win, saying no matter who is there, we're all going to fight together. I'm paraphrasing wildly. Do you, I mean, so help me understand what lesson should be drawn here. And is it that the specter of MAGA candidates and the continuation of the Trump legacy in Wisconsin is enough of a spectacle to get Democrats to be absolutely cutthroat about who they're nominating to run against those candidates? Is it that electability trumps policy? I mean, how do you look at this remarkable coalescing around a candidate, Ben, who is out of the race as of just a few weeks ago and then jumped back in? Well, the thing is about Wisconsin and Michigan is that the primaries were tied in both places. You know, it was an edge of like 4,000 votes in Wisconsin, less than 4,000. It was like 14,000 in Michigan. There were also both states with massive Democratic primary turnout and much smaller Republican primary turnout. So there's a level of energy and enthusiasm on the Democratic side that is much higher. There's also, you talk to voters, you hear two things. One, you want to win. And second, after you win, you want real change. And so, you know, people were asking for both of those things from both of the candidates in both of those states. And people have, you know, different ideas about exactly, you know, which candidate is going to have the edge in terms of being able to win the general election. And they definitely do not want a return to a status quo that felt broken. They, everyone is furious about an economy that is clearly working very well for the people at the very top and not well for anybody else. They want the system unrigged. They want to fight back against extremism and corruption. So all those things were, I think, clear in both states. I don't think, I think that the real story is that level of energy and that clarity and call both for change and for victory in both, both of these places. And, you know, I think you heard both candidates in Wisconsin, David Crowley and Francesca Hong saying the exact same thing, both of them just now. That's why it's so easy to unite after the primary because what divides different candidates is so much smaller than what unites people. Yeah. And that's, that's a recipe for success in a political party. I think the Republican Party has a very different problem that they're trying to solve. Tom Tiffany, the Republican nominee, in Wisconsin, has been in lockstep with Donald Trump at every step. And Donald Trump is very unpopular in Wisconsin right now. So for Tom Tiffany, he wants anything but a focus on his actual record and message and person and political biography. He wants to, you know, to push the spotlight away from himself. And for Democrats, we invite a contrast. You know what I mean? Like this is, this is- Yeah, to say the least. Yeah. Do you, I mean, what do you, Wisconsin is notoriously deeply divided. It's a purple state in the most classic sense of the word. What do you think about Tiffany's chances? I mean, you point out he's a Trump stooge. I mean, this is someone who voted not to count the votes in Pennsylvania and Arizona on January 6th, 2021. I will say that stat, or I will repeat that factoid as much as I possibly can, because the idea that there are people who now, you know, election deniers like that, who are running for governor of a very critical swing state is a very salient fact. He joined, Tom Tiffany joined Texas' lawsuit to invalidate the election. To invalidate Wisconsin's presidential election results. He's like directly involved in trying to throw out the votes of his own potential future constituents. He's part of the plot and he wants to be in charge of election certification in the closest state in the country. So it is a blinking red emergency, clear and present danger. If you were to be offering some wisdom to David Crowley, like what's your assessment of the chances that Tom Tiffany has to actually, seat himself in the governor's mansion come November? So professional race rating people are updating their ratings right now and saying this is now tilt democratic. I will say you should treat this as a toss up all the way to the end. And one big reason for that, there are three billionaires who've put together, I think, 86% of all the Republican money in Wisconsin politics at this moment. Diane Hendricks and Dick and Liz Uline have poured like $21 million into the Republican machine. And they, have as much money as they want to give. And so there's a wall of, I'm sure the worst kind of attack ads that's about to wash over the state. The Crowley campaign needs support. And the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, the Wisconsin Democratic Assembly and state Senate caucuses, the House candidates, this is like, this is the people against the powerful. And the powerful have really big bank accounts at this moment. So the public is furious. The public wants to vote for change. They're also going to be hit with this absolute avalanche of Republican, you know, ATT&CK had money, and in that environment, in a state both sides kind of start at 48%, even in a really good Democratic year, you should expect this to be another all-nighter in November. And that means this is like go time for everyone to roll up their sleeves and do everything they can. Having said all that, I think that there's kind of a one-two punch here. On the one side, American democracy is under threat if Tom Tiffany wins. And if you're a volunteer, if you're someone who talks to a lot of your friends about politics all the time, if you're someone who can chip in and donate, that fact is really front and center and makes this a must-win race. At the same time, we know a lot of voters have gotten so sick of all politics who have heard candidates on both sides saying democracy is under threat all the time. They tune out a lot of that stuff. It feels like noise. Those voters are most concerned. If you knock on their doors and ask them, they're most concerned about the cost of gas and groceries and healthcare and housing. And those voters are also voting. for change. They also are ready to throw out whoever's in charge right now. And who's in charge is Donald Trump and Tom Tiffany and Republicans at every level of power. So there's a coalition of both the kind of hyper-alert and into-politics people and the people who'd rather never think about politics, but who can barely afford to make ends meet. Those two groups of folks coming together are enough to power a victory, even in the face of this flood of billionaire attack ads. I wonder when we talk about the coalition that could be the winning coalition. And Jonathan Vee last at the Bulwark makes a point that David Crowley did really well among Black voters in the state. And they traditionally and even up through today formed the backbone of the Democratic coalition. Francesca Hong, I believe, did best in Wisconsin's college towns. But in densely urban areas like Milwaukee, she trailed behind Crowley. The eternal lesson, as he says, is that African-American voters are the backbone of the Democratic coalition. What do you make of that? And does that make you in any way sort of more optimistic, when you're talking about the broader dynamics of the state and how, you know, Crowley may have a lock within certain critical communities? I get so many headaches every month. It could be chronic migraine, 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more. Botox, autobotulinum toxin A, prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine. It's not for those who have 14 or fewer headache days a month. Contact your doctor right away, as difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems, or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, including ALS/Lugarig's disease, myasthenia gravis, or Lambert-Eaton syndrome, and medications, including botulinum toxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects. Why wait? Ask your doctor. Visit BotoxChronicMigraine.com or call 1-800-44-BOTOX to learn more. The thing about David Crowley is that he earns every vote that he wins. Francesca Hong also fought. Yeah, 7,000 volunteers, 500 canvassing events, like they, yeah, she put in the work. Both candidates have been, like, since this final stretch when David Crowley got back in the race, barnstorming across Wisconsin. My door was knocked on. By people from both campaigns, so many people's doors have been knocked on. There's an in-person face-to-face quality, as well as, you know, the ads and the air war and the earned media and all the other stuff that goes into a campaign. They get how you win elections in this state, and they'll both be throwing themselves in. David Crowley won his first race for Milwaukee County executive by also a hair's breadth margin in 2020, and then was reelected very handily. He has been, you know, deeply involved in supporting work in every election that's happened since then. Wisconsin, you know, iron sharpens iron. In Wisconsin, elections are so close so much of the time that people really learn to get focused and disciplined on doing the things that will make the difference. And for Black voters in Milwaukee, they have been the margin of victory over and over, and Black voters elsewhere in the state. And it's overwhelmingly, you know, a white state, and there's a big Hmong community and Latino community. Like, this is, you old, you only win in Wisconsin when you bring together folks across race and ethnicity, rural areas, small towns, suburbs, cities. It's an all, the only recipe that wins is an all of the above, show up everywhere, make your case to everyone, earn every vote, knock every door kind of, kind of game. And when you do that, you can win. And Democrats have won 17 of the last 21 statewide elections in our state. I think this feels like a good year, and no one's taking it for granted. Yeah, it sounds exhausting to me. I mean, Wisconsin just sounds like just particularly exhausting. Just the level of tenacity, energy, enthusiasm that you yourself have to have to impart into your supporters is really off the charts. 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Four out of five employers who post on ZipRecruiter get a quality candidate within the first day. Try it for free today at ZipRecruiter.com/crooked. That's ZipRecruiter.com/crooked. ZipRecruiter, meet your match on ZipRecruiter. Do you have thoughts on what happened in nearby Minnesota? I mean, we talked about this last night and I've talked about it some today and some on my podcast this week about Angie Craig losing to Peggy Flanagan by very healthy margin of like 20 points despite outspending Peggy Flanagan four to one. Some of that money was APAC money, we are to presume based on the reporting. Michael Lindell did not win, I believe, his primary. He's to concede in fully Trumpy fashion. Actually, let's take a look at his response on his own TV network, Lindell TV. Why would I listen to AP? There's 265,000 votes left to count. I'm down by 18,000 now. We just gained 5,000. I'm not gonna give up this race until the votes are counted. That's nonsense. Until the votes are counted? Until the votes are counted where I can't win. I mean, why would I call it now? Because everyone else is calling it now, Doc. It's an 11-point loss. Is this what we can expect more of from Republican candidates who lose come 2026, November 7th? I mean, Mike Lindell is especially odious and unwilling to concede reality. If Tom Tiffany loses, does he try to claim that it was stolen from him, try to overturn it? It's possible. Yeah. It's possible. We had our Senate loser last year, Eric Hovde, in 2024, flirted with the idea of refusing to concede as well and took a long time to actually make his official concession. I don't know whether Tom Tiffany, like Mike Lindell, actually believes in the flipping conspiracy theories or whether he's somebody who's strategically willing to override voters' wishes and use supposed voter fraud as a pretext. And I kind of think it's the latter because he's been involved in that over and over in with Wisconsin. Republicans knew full well that there was basically nonexistent voter fraud in the state and yet passed what at the time was the most restrictive voting law in the country when Tom Tiffany in the good old days with Scott Walker pushed through voter restrictions. They pushed through the most partisan gerrymander in the country and then went around claiming that Republicans won because of candidate quality. They get the game. I think Tom Tiffany is somebody who really understands exactly what he's doing. And then there's some people that kind of go along for the ride. There's a plot to make sure that the public doesn't get to choose who holds public office. And it is a conspiracy in plain sight. And it has been the basis of Republican control of the Wisconsin state legislature going back to 2011 when they rigged the maps. And they want to reimpose that in this state. They want to impose it everywhere. It'll affect the US House. The US Senate, they already have the filibuster to prevent majority rule. Trump is flirting with the national government. They're trying to make sure that they have the right people to vote. I think in Minnesota, Mike Lindell was obviously not going to win. It was kind of a joke. And he lost his primary. Tom Tiffany is not like that. This is somebody who has a realistic shot at winning the Wisconsin governorship. And I think we're going to need all hands on deck in races like this one in Arizona and places where you have the most extreme election deniers who are running for offices where they oversee the certification of elections. That has to be a top priority. That's the thing that scares me the most is what's happening inside the machinery of state governance and even inside the federal government when it comes to certifying elections and calling them. And I just worry about chicanery and chaos in the days that follow people going to the polls. So you are right in my book to be flagging this early, Ben. I hope we look back on this as a passing distraction on the on the on the march to victory for people who believe in democracy. I would rather have a world where democracy is not on the ballot. And we're just arguing about the top marginal tax break tax rate. Let's go back to those days. Inshallah. We'll see where the road takes us, my friend. I'm happy to be traveling it with you. The great Ben Wickler, your book is out now. And this is like a must read. I have heard so much about this is the plan. First of all, thank you for writing a book called This is the Plan. I'm glad someone has one. This is the plan how to end America's meltdown and save democracy. Sounds like a must read in this climate. Ben, thank you for your wisdom. Thank you for your time and thoughts. I really appreciate you. If you are not subscribed to this YouTube channel, what are you doing? Hit subscribe. We love you for doing it. Thank you, Ben. 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