Democrats Lead In Midterm Polls, Yemen War Front, Paramount-Warner Bros. Merger

- It's beautiful hearing. - Is it really home? - We saw moose. - Oh really? - Like how close did you get? - Really close by accident because we were on these rural roads with no reception and then we were like, "Why are these guys in the middle of the street "when there's no people here and there was two moose?" - Not mooses? - Yeah. - Oh, that's what I put on the few strands of here I have left, mooses. (laughs) (upbeat music) - Holes suggest Democrats are ahead with just four weeks left before the midterm elections. - Republicans are spending money on races. They did not expect to be competitive. So what's behind the Democratic momentum and can they keep it? - I'm Layla Faldin, that's Amartina's and this is up first from NPR News. (upbeat music) - Hothi's took over new areas of Yemen last month and consolidated control of an oil shipping route. Now Saudi Arabia is pushing back nearly 200,000 people have been displaced by weeks of fighting. - And Paramount closes its mega merger with Warner Brothers this morning that puts HBO, CNN, and CBS under one company called Skydance. What changes reviewers and workers stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day. (upbeat music) - Four weeks from today will be election day. - And a series of new polls are showing Democrats with a decided advantage in the midterms, but how much stock should we put into them and is there something else we should be paying attention to? To help with that, who better than NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montenoro? Good morning Domenico. - Good morning, Layla. - Okay, so lots of polls flying around and all of them seem to show Democrats doing well with voters, just how confident should Democrats be? - Right, well polls are only one factor in midterms, and you have to consider history, the national environment, the political structure, money, and polling, and sometimes they're all related. And most of those right now are favoring Democrats. And remember though, polls aren't predictive. They tell us what's happening now or rather during the dates when they were conducted with that particular little sample and that polling outfits way of waiting. People still have to vote. These aren't prediction markets and the prediction markets are really just trying to read the polls where the money's heading and what the news narratives are. But what is clear though is that the needle has moved in Democrats' direction over the last several months, especially in the Senate. And that's about all that really should be taken away right now, big picture. So you say the needle has moved in Democrats' direction. What does that mean for the campaign and what might happen? - Yeah, I mean, no crystal ball here, but we can come up with some informed reasons for what might happen. First, we've seen the most movement in the Senate with lots of races moving in Democrats' direction. And that's because of what looked to be tight races in red states. So the Senate is within reach now for Democrats, which I can hardly believe I'm even saying that because I was highly unlikely at the beginning of this cycle. But it's not so far afield to say that Democrats are the clear favorites to win the House. - Okay, why is that? - Well, I mean, you start with history and the national mood. In 18 of the 20 midterm elections since World War II, the president's party has lost house seats on average about 26 seats, and it's even worse when the president is unpopular as President Trump is now. I mean, just a 37% approval rating, tied for the worst pre-midterm approval rating in the last half century with George W. Bush back in 2006, back then Democrats won the House and the Senate think about how people feel right now about the economy and the war in Iran. Those are both intertwined as we know, and then think about how narrow House Republicans' majority is. It's only a few seats in the House. Democrats only need things to tip slightly in their direction for them to win, and the national mood certainly stacked against President Trump and the Republican Party. So Democrats have a clear advantage in the House, but there are some question marks about really how big those gains could be. Why the question marks? - Well, man, there are a few things. The Democratic Party is unpopular. Now, that might matter less in a midterm given that those are low turnout affairs. Usually the most fired up are the ones who turn out to vote, and anger is a real motivator. The intensity of opposition against Trump is just super high right now. The percentage of people in our last MPR PBS News Marispole who said they strongly disapprove of the job the president was doing is 53%. That's the highest it's ever been, but the unpopularity of the party could still dampen enthusiasm for some of those voters who should lean in Democrats' direction. More importantly, for why these gains might be limited is the structure. I mean, 25 of the 31 seats that Democrats are targeting aren't places that Trump won in 2024. And as we know, in this hyperpartisan era, it's just hard to go into places like that and win in big numbers. Plus, Republicans were already somewhat insulated because of a landscape that favored them because of not just recent redistricting, but decades of it that said things do tend to tip in one direction in the end in midterms. - And what about the Senate? Lots of polling has come out showing Democrats competitive or leading in some pretty surprising places like Texas, Alaska, even Kansas? - Yeah, I mean, no doubt about it. I mean, Republicans are moving money out of a purple state like North Carolina and into red states like Kansas when they've already been spending a ton in Texas. And that's not what Republicans thought they'd be having to spend money on at the beginning of this election cycle. So Democrats have a shot now at winning the Senate, but they have to win in lots of places that they haven't had a long history of success in. You know, does that mean that that's what's gonna happen? No, but if you talk to operatives in both parties, Democrats certainly have the win that they're backs right now, it seems. - And PR Senior Political Editor and Correspondent Domenico Montenoro, thank you, Domenico. - You got it. (upbeat music) - Saudi Arabia and its allied forces in Yemen say they've recaptured a port city from the Houthis that lies on a key oil shipping route. - It's part of a new Saudi offensive against the Iran-backed Houthis who gained ground in Yemen just weeks ago and captured territory along the Red Sea. - MPR Zaya Batrawi is in Dubai. So tell us so what exactly did Saudi Arabia do? - Yeah, so the Saudi Air Force has 100 fighter jets carried out this new offensive called Operation Don of Yemen yesterday, striking hundreds of targets. And then by nightfall, Saudi-backed forces in Yemen said that they had entered the Red Sea port city of Mocha and pushed the Houthis out. The Houthis, however, denied any loss of territory. Now, this offensive comes around three weeks after the Houthis had swept into southwestern Yemen, capturing Mocha and islands in Beban-Menda. That is the key Red Sea shipping route that Saudi Arabia had been using to export its oil since the state of Hamuz to the east is blocked by Iran. Now, the Houthis have been targeting Saudi tankers in Beban-Menda. They say that is in response to Saudi Arabia's blockade of Houthi areas and Houthi ports. But the Saudis say their blockade is to prevent Iran from transferring weapons to the Houthis. Now, this new Saudi offensive is basically an attempt to reverse the loss of territory in Yemen and regain that territory along the street. - That port city, Mocha that you mentioned, what kind of shape is it in? - So most residents had fled Mocha and the Houthis swept into the city last month. And many of its hospitals had immediately shut down. And the UN says at least 180,000 people have been displaced overall in Yemen by this recent fighting. Now, we have spoken to aid workers who say women are giving birth in the open and people are sleeping under trees. And NPR reached several Yemenis in the governorate of Daz, which Mocha is a part of. One man confirmed to us yesterday that he fled an area that had been taken by the Houthis just yesterday that lies along a main road linking two Yemeni government strongholds. That's the city of Daz and aid into the south. They are now cut off from one another. I want you to have a listen to what a resident in Daz city, Osema Al-Sadih, he told NPR last night. - So he says the Houthis haven't circled the city of Daz and that people can't flee because the road is now cut off. And he says a number of civilians were killed on the outskirts of the city by Houthi forces as they tried to advance. And he says Daz is now facing a crisis of aid and fuel because it all came from aid and so while you're seeing the Saudi-led forces make gains in Mocha, you're seeing the Houthis make gains around Daz. - Yeah, we're also hearing about the Houthis who have been attacking Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones. - Yeah, so the Houthis say that they have hit several Saudi aramco oil sites in the past few days. We don't have confirmation of that. And Saudi Arabia is not commenting on specific attacks. The Houthis are, however, also targeting air bases in Saudi Arabia and airports. And the kingdom did say that Riyadh airport was among two airports that were hit last night in Saudi Arabia. Now, to defend against these attacks, Saudi Arabia is getting some support from Britain and France. Yesterday, top ministers from Pakistan and Turkey also met in Saudi Arabia. And they confirmed that they're providing rapid military support now to the kingdom as part of the Mecca agreement. That's the new defense pact that was signed by the three countries over the summer. And this pact really stems from President Trump's reluctance to get directly involved in another war in the Gulf. The U.S. has not agreed to Saudi Arabia's request for a refueling support, but it is sharing intel on the Houthis. - That's NPR Zalibat-Trawi in Dubai. Thank you very much. - Thanks, Ay. (upbeat music) - A new era in Hollywood has now begun. Paramount Skydance closed its long anticipated and for some long fear takeover of Warner Brothers' discovery this morning. The $111 billion merger faced public protests, but ultimately passed legal and regulatory challenges in the U.S. and in Europe. - NPR Zalibat-Trawi joins us now from Los Angeles. Zalibat-Trawi is going to be one big massive company who's in charge what's in this company. - Yeah, so David Ellison will control this new media empire with help from his billionaire father Larry Ellison and investors from the Middle East. Their company Skydance combines two legendary film studios. both more than 100 years old paramount pictures and Warner Brothers pictures. Ellison also gets their streaming services like Paramount Plus and HBO Max. He gets MTV, Comedy Central, The Food Network, and two huge news outlets, CNN and CBS News. Ellison has defended the merger from critics worried about him having too much power over the media. This is Ellison on CNBC in March after outbidding Netflix. This deal is basically, you know, it's pro-competitive, it's pro-consumer. It's good for the overall creative economy. We now have a library of 15,000 films, everything from Harry Potter to the DC universe, Mission Impossible Top Gun, The Godfather Under One Roof. - And that's not to mention popular TV shows, the companies distribute like Ted Lasso, the Daily Show, the Star Trek franchise, and all those loony tunes cartoons. - Now, when companies merge like this, sometimes changes occur among the elite. What are some of those changes expected for this new company? - Yeah, well Ellison already announced his co-CEO will be Inan Crise, the former head of Mattel, but Michael DeLuca and Pamela Abdie, the duo that headed Warner Brothers Pictures, are now out of the picture. Just last year, at the Oscars, they celebrated their film "Cinners" and "One Battle After Another." You know, the writer's Guild of America and 12 state attorneys general tried unsuccessfully to block this merger and as part of the settlement, Ellison agreed that the combined studios will make 30 films a year for the next few years, but critics remain skeptical of that. - What have you heard though about changes in the TV news networks? So you mentioned CNN and CBS. So what have you heard about changes that maybe Skydance might make? - Well, there's been a lot of worry about what might happen to CNN with the Ellison's being allies to President Trump. I spoke to Jessica Gonzales, she's the co-CEO of the nonprofit media advocacy organization, Free Press, that's not to be confused with the media company Free Press founded by Barry Weiss, the head of CBS News. Well, Gonzales' group helped organize the block the merger coalition. - We're concerned about the Ellison's corrupting CNN. We're concerned about what the Ellison's have already done since taking over paramount and CBS. They are willing to use their money and power to censor the news, to tear down stories that they or the President don't like. We deserve better than billionaire oligarchs controlling our media system. - Now to get the deal passed, Ellison promised to set up an independent oversight board to protect CNN from political interference, Skydance says the current head of CNN, Mark Thompson will remain. Barry Weiss will continue to head CBS News. - Okay, so what about people that watch these films and TV shows that are gonna be under this big umbrella and the people who work on all these projects? - Well, people against the deal predict that viewers could soon have to pay more for streaming services and they could have fewer choices and they say layoffs are inevitable. Ellison comes into this with a huge amount of debt and for now workers at both companies will be starting the day a bit unsure about their futures at Skydance. - That's NPR's Manalita El Barco, who covers the media industry for us from Los Angeles Manalita, thanks. - Thank you. - And that's a first for Tuesday, October 6th, on May Martinez. - And I'm Layla Faldin. Today's episode of a first was edited by Megan Pratt, Tina Crye, Russell Lewis, Muhammad Abardici, and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Ziyad Butch and Niyadu Moss. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Heines and Stacey Abbott. Our technical director is Carly Strange and our supervising senior producer is Vince Pearson. Join us again tomorrow. (gentle music)