Democratic TSUNAMI Predicted on Election Day

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Women's hockey team, Detroit Lions hat. That's right. I'm feeling good, Jess. Yeah? I'm feeling good. I'm feeling good. Just because it's election day? No, I just feel great. I just feel. I don't know. I'm feeling very American. I'm hopeful. I feel really good. I couldn't sleep last night. I got up. Well, you guys had a big, great show. We did have a big, great show. Yeah, yeah, with Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton, who was. I've heard of her. She literally got a standing ovation. I can't get over it. There must have been, like, every, I don't know, every Democratic woman in New York was there just like. I mean, it was just. It was staggering, the reception she got. I love that she's greeted that way. And anytime I see her, I do the same. But when it's happening, I just think, how much would this woman give to trade the presidency for this? Like, having won the presidency versus how she's. Oh, God. How much would we trade? How much would we give? Yes. I mean, you got no tariffs, no one around, no corruption, confidence in government, no Secretary Hegseth. Friends abroad. Our allies would still be our allies. Oh, we'd still be doing a lot of trade with Canada. Gas would be at three bucks, not 450. Women wouldn't be dying of sepsis in emergency rooms. I mean, there's just a few things that might be a touch, a wee bit different. She probably wouldn't have let any megalomaniac addict dial back Starlink. We would probably, at this point, be forcing Putin to come to the negotiating table to give back land in the Ukraine. Yeah. Things would be. Just a skosh different. Yeah. Maybe we needed this. Maybe we needed to learn. I like me. What do you think? I like me with the hat on because you saw less of me. No. I have the hat on, and I start thinking I'm reasonable looking. I take the hat off, and I look like me. I am riding very high right now. I've had two cups of coffee. I've had no breakfast. I am super excited about today. I am sick of being cautiously optimistic. I've got an American surfboard out, and I'm going to ride a. I'm going to ride a fucking super tsunami today, Jess. All right. I'm going to go deep in the pipe. I am going to shred for. We're not going for no fucking blue wave or red riptide. We are going for the super tsunami today. How are you feeling, Jess? How are you feeling? I mean, I feel good, but not like you. I'm just. Not as good? Of course, even with the surf analogy, I'm like, what if there's a big Republican shark that's coming to take, like, one limb? Uh-oh. Yeah. Have you identified the shark? I've been spending a lot of time listening to data people, because they're the only folks that I can trust in this. And hearing everybody say that they have made corrections to the polls. To the upside, right?. for the fact that we could be underestimating Republican turnout. And we know people come home. No, no, it's a good thing that, like, these models actually are on the more conservative end. Yeah, one of the strangest things. This is the first election I've ever seen where, typically, whoever's. Whoever's behind starts to tighten. I've always wondered if that's just the media trying to keep us glued to our phones and our TVs. But everything I've seen is saying the gulf is actually widening. Anyways, I. We. Welcome, everybody, to our live substack. It's Raging Martyrs. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So when I do shit like this. Hello, ladies. Hello. There's no editing it out. You're welcome. I did it last night, and that was the moment that Secretary. Madam Secretary Clinton thought about the series of bad decisions she had made. She made the letter to a point where a guy was rubbing his belly. Anyways, before we get started, we'll be live streaming all week to break down the election results as they come in. So make sure to subscribe for all our coverage. All right, let's get into it. Whew! Millions of Americans are heading to the polls today, while another 50 million have already voted early, outpacing the last midterm cycle across key Senate battlegrounds. Both parties made their final pitches Monday, but Trump's closing message was anything but conventional. Shocker. Standing in front of the newly reopened Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool, he joked, about renaming it after himself, then spent another 20 minutes detailing his renovation projects before finally turning to the economy and the midterms. Just hours before Election Day, the Supreme Court also denied the administration's emergency request to set aside 20,000 mail-in ballots in California. Meanwhile, J.D. Vance and Don Jr. went to Ohio, urging Republicans to reject the crazies and get out to vote. Nothing like hearing you should reject the crazies from Don Jr. As of this taping, Cal Shee has Democrats at a 77%. chance of winning a majority in the Senate, with leads in all seven battleground states. Let's take a look at MAGA's closing message. President Trump, since he came down that golden escalator, has saved America. Oil prices are plunging now. They're plunging. They'll be down. I hope people realize that when they go into the voting booth. President Trump took a bullet for you. He bled for you. He faced life in prison for you. And what he needs from you tomorrow is your vote. Does somebody. Does somebody have those pictures for me? The pictures? So this is what we took out, and this is the pipe inside here. President Trump loves America. He loves this nation, and he's delivered more for us in two years than any president has in four or eight years. And by the way, we resurfaced the granite. This granite was all resurfaced, and it's in. You know, because it's granite, it's got a. The Democrat Party has said they do want extremists, pro-jihad, America-hating, 9-11, supporting monsters like Assam Piker. They want to pack the Supreme Court. They want to make Ohio a state. I don't know how it works, but, you know, they can do these things and get away with it. You still be able to do what you do, work with Democrats, even if they do? Well, if that happens, I guess I'll become Mr. Vito. I'm not going to let them run. And then at some point, we'll probably make deals. That's what's happened. Scott, what if we make Ohio a state? What will happen? They could make Ohio a state. Yeah. So this is the campaign speech you give after your Mali dealer is back from Tulum. I mean, this is. And supposedly, he's been rumored that they're trying to groom him to be president or to run. I would love it. That might be the first donation I give to a Republican candidate for president. Don, I'm so on team Don Jr. You should absolutely. Announce now. Announce now. I'd like to see he. And Rahm Emanuel discuss issues at the next Davos. Okay. If Democrats. All right. Jess, anything that stands out to you about the final day on the campaign trail? And also, let's talk about early voting numbers. What do they tell us about these races? The early voting numbers are monster level. As of 8.30 this morning, Democrats surpassed their entire 2022 turnout in Florida. We're going to talk later in the show about. You know, going by the clock, early signs of what kind of night it's going to be. And some really big races in Florida are going to be indications of that. The North Carolina numbers continue to be the most impressive of the bunch. I have the feeling that Roy Cooper will be jumping ahead on people's lists of someone that they want to have in the mix come 2028. Michael Watley, a bad candidate. And there has been some good journalism. Around all of the bad decisions that President Trump made when it came to candidates that. put Republicans in this position. Obviously, Ken Paxton being atop that list, but Michael Watley, you know, pushing Darlene Graham to run for the full term in South Carolina versus just being the six-month caretaker after Lindsey Graham passed away. What are the odds in South Carolina right now? It's a toss-up race. I don't know what the Calchi odds are. My expectation is that Darlene Graham is going to win that race. But if she wins it by five or less, that tells you something about what people are doing and their willingness to vote for the other team and dissatisfaction with Republicans. I liked this from Lakshya Jain, who's a pollster. He said, we've updated our model. Senate has 53 for Democrats, 47 for Republicans, House at 239 to 196. And then he writes, the data unambiguously says something. It's just that nobody seems to actually believe it. We'll see if that's warranted. And that's what this game has been. I was listening to Nate Cohn as well, Galen Druk, friend of the pod, you know, all saying the same thing, which is there's not a lot that you see in the data that you could use to make the case that this is even going to be a decent night for Republicans. But we're all standing. Well, not you. You're fine. You're belly out having a great morning. Everyone else is in the fetal position. And I was thinking back about Ann Seltzer's poll. Remember that Iowa poll that randomly, you know, out of nowhere had Kamala Harris up? And Galen pointed out, which was a good reminder, that the thing about the Seltzer poll is that it was an outlier in all of this. There are no real outliers at this point. You look at these high quality polls, you know, everything from Fox News, New York Times, Sienna, Wall Street Journal, NBC, the Atlas Intel poll came out, which was, I think, the most accurate of 2024. It has Dems winning all of the key races that we're looking at. Minnesota with the closest margin, actually, in all of that. So the data is telling us something, but perhaps the most important number for today, a new Election Day record, the highest ever national average for gas and diesel, $4.12 a gallon for regular gas and $6.28 a gallon for diesel. Putting aside partisanship, which is a very hard thing to do, if people are, like you say, driving by these enormous election billboards every day, which are your gas prices, they are seeing prices that you have never seen before on an Election Day. Well, in addition, it's sort of the sum of all fears. You have, in a lot of the swing districts, it's where people drive the most. In addition, we've talked about this, the swingest of swing voters are men. Men drive, on average, 30% more than women. And then when you look at actual jobs growth, there has been jobs growth over the last two years. The majority of the jobs growth has gone to female-led industries, healthcare specifically, where it's 70% to 80% of the employee growth is women. And then the industries that have taken the biggest hit and have seen a destruction in jobs are manufacturing and transportation, which tend to be 70% to 80% men. So, the most vulnerable, if you will, are the most likely to swing their vote from one party to the other, right? Women aren't as fluid. Young women aren't as fluid in terms of who—young voters in general are fluid, but the most fluid, likely to go one way or the other, have no allegiance, are young men. And this economy has been especially hard on young men. Young male college graduates, their unemployment rate is actually quite high. Unemployment rate is sort of at a historical average, even slightly below if you go back far enough, except for young male college graduates. So, the voters who are most likely to swing their vote are the most fluid, are the ones actually being hit hardest. And in what is an incredibly unlucky and lucky piece of data for Republicans and Democrats, respectively, is the gas prices seem to be having the greatest impact in exactly the wrong states for the Republicans, the swing states. So, what kind of Democratic leadership are we likely to see if the party takes back Congress, or what changes in leadership do you think we'll see if things go our way today? Well, obviously, you'll have Speaker of the House Hakeem Jeffries. He's laid out pieces of the agenda. It's all focused on affordability, which is, I think, a good thing. Robert Garcia, who will be the oversight chair, put out a statement about focus there, and we'll dive in and looking into the Trump family. I almost wish that those things would not be said out loud yet, because I feel like that's actually one of the strongest arguments for a partisan Republican to either come home and vote for Republicans or to get off the couch. If you say, I mean, it's not impeaching Donald Trump again. I think we've definitely learned our lesson about that. But even the word investigations, you see how much it shows up in speeches that President Trump is giving at these rallies, you know, they're going to come after me, they're going to come after me. And there are a lot of folks who felt that that was an animating factor in their vote in previous elections. And so I would like to focus on the are you better off today election versus, you know, what are we going to do with our gavel in oversight? Though, I obviously think it's important to dig into Epstein file cover ups, all of this money that they've been making, even, you know, Trump being out there at the reflecting pool. It's a choice. And he's a builder. And he loves those stories. I would add, though, that there were only, I don't know, 60, 70, 80 people that were out there with him. And he spent very little time actually focused on the elections. Hakeem Jeffries, again, it's affordability. I would still love my three bumper sticker policies to be released where you just say this is what a Democratic agenda looks like. This is how we'll be able to enact it. If we get this kind of margin in place, if we, you know, hope and a prayer, if we are lucky enough to have the Senate, maybe we even have a couple of extra votes in all of these governors mansions and state legislatures. There are enormous opportunities for trifectas in a lot of right leaning states that we're not even paying attention to. That's how you actually get these agendas through. And I would like more. But I understand that with this particular election, when the incumbent is so unpopular and it's a different kind of election, I think that maybe it's enough to just say we're not those guys and we're going to try to reverse as much as possible. That's putting a strain on your wallet. Do you see anything floating around in the kind of the policy area that's exciting you about what Democratic control could look like? I mean, obviously, Trump will turn into this Mr. Vito, but it's still worthwhile to to put things out there. And if the margins are big enough, you might actually get, you know, some Republicans to side with you. And who knows? Maybe there's a miracle to be had. Yeah, I think they need to outline their agenda, even if it doesn't get through. They can start to outline stuff, start to debate it, start to socialize it amongst the American public, something around the idea of a Medicare option for everyone, something that moves us towards some sort of relief around the subsidies. And also it also gives people a sense that at some point we're going to address the fact that 40 percent of American households have dental or medical debt. And that's not to say to absolve those people of that debt, but to move to a more universal coverage model. And it might be incremental, but something that outlines that we are moving away from the privatization and the concentration of hospital systems and verticalization that has essentially monetized health care, much to the stress, anxiety and lack of well-being amongst the American public. Something along the lines of tax reform and alternative minimum tax for companies as a percentage of GDP. Labor wages have never been lower as a percentage of GDP. Corporate profits have never been higher. So that means we probably need to readjust or reverse the flows of capital and prosperity from the owners or from the earners and the consumers to the earners. And we need to reverse those flows. I would propose a series of fairly serious antitrust. Talk about removal or modification of 230 such that we no longer have a profit incentive of the biggest companies in the world to create a series of share lies. I would throw out there things like mandatory national service commissions to talk about how do we take advantage of asymmetry around warfare and potentially take our military budget from a trillion and a half to 900 million, 700 billion while maintaining the most lethal fighting force in history, recognizing that our platforms are expensive and have to be manned and we're just not willing to. The B-1 bomber used to be a symbol of intimidation. Now they're intimidated and having to leave certain places because of a fear of a lawnmower with C-4 attached can take them out. There's a ton of things, something that would codify Roe v. Wade. It will get vetoed. It won't pass, but put it out there. Basically outline the agenda for Democratic administration and say, this is a preview. Don't you want to see this movie in 28? And this is how we improve affordability through antitrust. This is how we are going to create a more responsible fiscal program. That will bring down interest rates on your credit cards, your mortgage, but basically occupy the space you command. Get Trump to veto something that helps people get medical coverage. Get Trump to veto something that says we are going to get money out of politics. I mean, so fine, but outline your agenda. We need to move. The theme here is we need to move from the party of indignance to the party of ideas. So speaking of indignance. Wait, can I say something about that before we go more indignant? What will be very telling is what leadership does with all of these, hopefully, knock on wood, winning candidates, because there are folks out there running either as Democrats or independents that have, if it goes as it is projected to, been able to persuade people of all political stripes to support them because they're talking about the issues that matter to them and have put forward solutions. So there's this great opportunity to. Take parts of the agendas from all of these amazing candidates and make that into your platform. This doesn't have to turn into a smoke filled room like, you know, what do you think we should do? Should we take a bit of this or a bit of that? Like, go to the big winners. If, you know, Zach Dembo flips Kentucky 6th, which is a Trump plus 15 district, and it will be one of the earliest races to be watching tonight. Go take a look at what he's been talking about on the campaign trail. Ask, you know, how do you think we could get this done? And make it. Part of the agenda. And you can do that across the line. You can do it with House races. You can do it with these gubernatorial candidates. You can do it with these Senate candidates. And I think it's an amazing opening for Democrats to actually be able to show off the candidate quality in a deeper way to say, we see you and we hear you because Democrats are still 10 points less popular than Republicans nationally. And every time I see that poll question, I'm hoping that it ticks up a bit more. And it doesn't really move much at this point. They like their candidates. They don't like the party brand. And part of the problem with that is obviously a messaging problem. It's what Republicans are saying about the brand. But it's the fact that they don't hear substantive stuff out of leadership that makes them think that we've got a clue as to how to drive the country in a better direction. So I crowdsource this baby from all of the good candidates that we're seeing out there. Yeah, this is, look, this is a lease, not a mortgage. They've agreed to date us. They're not marrying us. Yeah, maybe just one night stand. Like 2028, I'll be here fast. Yeah, so they need to get on this and outline a bold vision and definitive agenda and just say, we're going to workshop it. And if the reflecting pool guy wants to veto it, we're 24 months away from telling people, this is our agenda. Our agenda should be. It should be pretty well sketched out by the time the presidential race kicks off, which will be quite frankly. Yeah, and put Republican candidates on their heels and have them defend. Well, why aren't we going to get rid of or rescind the Republican tax cuts on corporations and start to pay down the deficit? Why aren't we going to have something resembling universal health care or restore child tax credits? Why aren't we going to rein in our military budget while embracing new technologies to create a more lethal fighting? I mean, put them, have them, as you said, I love what you said. When you're explaining, you're defending or you're losing. You're losing. And I don't even think we, I think immediately they draft these pieces of legislation and have votes on them and they'll pass and then let the president veto them. We're in the AI era where agents access data, use tools, make decisions and automate work across the enterprise. It's tremendous innovation, but it's also an incredible cybersecurity challenge. One that CrowdStrike helps solve. CrowdStrike AI detection and response helps organizations detect, investigate and respond to threats targeting and originating from AI systems so companies can innovate faster while securing the AI era. CrowdStrike. We secure AI. We stop breaches. Support for today's episode comes from Delta, official airline of the National Women's Soccer League. Traveling is basically magic. It creates opportunities. It fosters understanding. It expands horizons. It connects people and communities to each other and to their own potential. Those are the values that drive Delta. With up to 5,500 daily Delta, and Delta Connection flights to more than 300 destinations on six continents, Delta is committed to helping you explore your world. Whatever gives you the travel bug, Delta is here to help you get there. Visit Delta.com for more info. Delta, wherever the journey takes you. Support for the show comes from USA Facts. I've interviewed countless politicians, and if there's one thing we all find disconcerting is when they believe in us. And if we don't, we're going to butcher the facts with some biased half-truth. Give us a break already. So when I had the chance to debate conservative podcaster Ben Shapiro, our natural response was bring it on. Why? Because it was sponsored by USA Facts, and each debate segment started with a presentation of government data and facts. Employment, government spending, income data, housing, and more. The topic? The American dream. Is it still within reach? We argued. We found some common ground. We actually debated, and there were no results. No personal attacks. Watch the full debate on the USA Facts YouTube channel. We think you'll find it unlike any other debate. That is entertaining and informative. We hope you check it out. Let's move on. Democrats already have their sights set on one of Trump's biggest allies, Elon Musk. If they take back Congress, Musk could face a wave of investigations into his time-leading doge, mass federal layoffs, government contracts, and his potential role in Ukraine, specifically throttling back Starlink, which put Ukrainian citizens and their army at undue risk. Trump, meanwhile, says he'll protect his allies, and he's even floated pardoning Musk. How serious? What do you think of this, Jess? What is your kind of prediction around what happens with respect to Elon Musk post-democratic wave, assuming it happens? Oh, he's going to have a rough time vis-a-vis the investigation. I do not think that this should be about, you know, litigating, giving SpaceX stock to kids, even if it's linked to Trump accounts. Like, if you're talking about taking money away from Americans, that way you are losing. And by and large, people think the Trump accounts are a good idea. I hope that it's not about that. I hope it's about the substantive potential, at least ethical violations, I don't want to say crimes necessarily, that Elon Musk has. I hope that it's not about the substantive potential, at least ethical violations, I don't want to say crimes necessarily, that Elon Musk has. So everything from what he did with Doge, firing all of the inspectors generals that were looking into his companies, exploring his government contracts, you know, potential monopolies there, and what went on with Starlink and Starshield is a really big deal. And there are lawyers who think that you would have a case if you were exploring what exactly Musk did, what the DOD did, that ended up resulting in loss of life in Ukraine, and obviously accidents. But it seems like from very good reporting, you know, not from left-leaning outlets, you know, from the Wall Street Journal, that there were pointed decisions made or actions taken. And I would love to get to the bottom of that. I think, you know, the fact that we have a system where a single individual can pump this much money into an election is a broader conversation about campaign finance reform. But if you are going to do that, you have to do it. Well, are to talk about investigations early, which I guess Robert Garcia and Democrats are, Elon Musk is one of the names that I think is definitely worthy of putting at the top of your list. Do you want to aggravate him more? Maybe he could say that he's going to put you in jail. Well, my prediction is we are going to be watching, and it's going to make for great C-SPAN TV, an Elon Musk doing this as he'll look like a, he'll look like someone, a worker from Hot Topics. Who uses ketamine every day to get through the day, sitting in a congressional hearing. Yeah, with congressional staffers constantly handing representatives or senators pictures of kids or mothers in Africa who died because they didn't get their HIV medication or people who have been killed in Ukraine because Ukrainian defense drones could not launch because unexpectedly the guidance systems on their, on their defensive. Drums were cut off. I think we are going to have that image. Now the interesting thing will be if he, his lawyers will advise him to take the fifth, but there's some question that if he's in fact pardoned by Trump, if you're allowed to take the fifth, because the fifth is meant to exonerate you from self-incrimination, if there is no self-incrimination because of the pardon, there's some legal question as to whether you are allowed to take the fifth when testifying in front of Congress, when you have been pardoned and also a pardon. It absolves you from federal prosecution. My understanding is it doesn't exonerate you. you from state prosecution, and I know it doesn't exonerate you from prosecution by authorities in the UK or Canada. I think that the West is coming to recognition or realization that the idolatry of innovators that infects the United States has created an atmosphere where these individuals are held to an entirely different standard because of their wealth and because they're perceived as innovators, which is the new means of saying a spiritual person. What the Taliban and Al-Qaeda look to for someone in spirituality as being a blanket for being a good person and exonerating you from what I feel are not good actions. In the U.S., our new religion is technology, and we exonerate people from standard norms of behavior if they're seen as an innovator. I think that is going away, and he is going to be held to the same standard as, like I said, the CEO of Northrop Grumman that decided that our Ohio class submarines should not be patrolling the South China seas and fucks with their guidance systems. I think that person would be hauled in front of Congress and would be severely questioned, and there would be talks of legal action against that person. I think that is coming. I think the worm has turned on Mr. Musk, and just as data centers have become a vessel for the anger around income inequality as it relates to AI, I think Mr. Musk is about to become a vessel for anger at income inequality, around this notion of the bro-topia in technology where these guys think they get to live by a different set of standards than the rest of us. I think he is about to become a vessel that will be filled with anger, a lot of it justified, about what's gone on the last four years. Do you think Trump sticks by him? I know in the pardon sense, but there have been a few instances where Trump has done things that have really upset Elon Musk, like provisions in the Big Beautiful Bill, for instance, where they fell out over that for several months. Do you see them staying on the love boat as we go forward towards 2028, or it's going to be a bumpy breakup? I have no idea. I'm not certain either way. I think Donald Trump has absolutely no loyalty to anybody. I mean, the guy doesn't get along with his wife. She's not even living with the guy. He has no loyalty to anybody. He's purely transactional. If he sees, if he can convince Trump, I wouldn't be surprised if Musk says, look, just give me my pardon. I'm going to go buy $5 billion of Trump coin and you'll be able to sell this when you're, I mean, there's so much backroom dealing here. Or at the same time, you may go, remember when you said, when you tweeted that I was in the Epstein files, motherfucker? Well, I'm not. I'm not going to pardon you. That still sticks in my craw. So who knows? I don't think anything is a good thing. Other than pardoning himself and his family, I don't think he has any sense of real, what you would call real enduring loyalty. Okay. So beyond the midterms, another major question is what Trump will do next in Iran. The U.S. military struck Iran's Kashim, I believe, island on Monday, the latest in a series of small-scale attacks in recent weeks. Some officials described them as defensive measures to prevent Iran from targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. But Trump is downplaying the prospect of a return to war, telling reporters, we haven't been doing any fighting for months. He says he's in no rush to resume strikes as negotiations continue through Qatari mediators. But his advisors are divided. J.D. Vance is pushing for a diplomatic deal while Netanyahu and Pete Hexeth want to resume fighting. Others are urging Trump to stick with economic pressure. Here's Trump talking about the Middle East this morning on a call to Fox. But what's going to happen after the election day, after today? What's the next? Well, we'll see. Look, I'm not looking to, you know, kill lots of people. But if we have to, we'll have to. But I'm not looking to do that. And the Hormuz Strait, we have total control of it with the Navy blockade. I mean, everything's going good. Everybody respects us again. I'm at 99 percent approval rating in Israel. Can you believe it? In fact, if people ever got tired of me in the U.S., I'll move to Israel and become prime minister. Now, as far as paying Israel, the Bibi Netanyahu and I have made a deal that we give Israel four billion dollars a year, but it gets cut off at the end of the year. Why? Why? Because they don't need it, Brian. I mean, I asked them, because they don't need it. And because why should we suffer the slings from lunatics like an El Sayyad when they don't need it? It's a bad it's a bad talking point. That's a big deal. And I know that they flirted with this, but saying it publicly and Bibi did not want that out in the ether when he was running for reelection just last week. I was like, oh, excuse me. And because he's and then acknowledged. We want to take away this talking point from candidates like Abdul. I actually agree with him on this. I mean, first off, ninety nine percent approval rating is I'm going to go out on a limb here. I've looked at the data, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that president may not be telling the truth. But I agree with him. I think we should cut the aid to Israel when we first started. I think they were a 40 billion dollar economy. Now they're 700. They have their own money. And also, to be clear, that four billion dollars, we don't show up with a with with dollar bills and give it to Netanyahu. It's money that is used to purchase U.S. weapons. It's basically a stimulus payment for the purchase of U.S. arms. At this point, the Israeli economy is one of the strongest economies in the Gulf and in the world. And they can afford it's just not worth it. It's not worth the controversy. It's not worth the talking point. The president is right. I think it's better for Israel if we don't give it to them. It takes away the talking point of people who are, you know, pro-Israel, as I am, that is OK. The argument of that should be spent on American kids. OK, just stop. They can pay for their own. They can pay for their own social services and their own weapons. I actually agree with him. And we don't get bananas from that. I mean, just going back to the commercial, the rebellion pack commercial, you know, you don't have a an egg or a banana problem because of this. But there you go. It's also a big deal that this just started getting reported that. We had been doing these, you know, quote unquote, small scale attacks. And there was enormous reporting from The Wall Street Journal and the AP about the damage to U.S. bases across the region. It was something like 24 structures across seven countries that had been severely damaged by the Iranians and raises the question, like, well, what can we actually do now? And what is the future of our participation in the Middle East look like? I mean, we're not going in and rebuilding these bases in the same way. So at the same time that we're constantly sending more and more troops to the region, not being massively reported, they're taking out our bases across the entire region. Like, what's going on here? And how have we not heard about this for the last, I don't know, three, four weeks? I feel like it has it has not been prominent in the discussion. I get it that it's election time, but this is a real election issue. When you ask people, why they're going to vote, they're talking about cost of living issues, which are directly tied to the war in Iran. Also, there's been a general consensus in the media that I or at least in the progressive media that we're going, we, the U.S. and Israel, are going to be are going to resume military attacks against Iran immediately after the midterms. Have you heard any more on that? No, just that's the expectation. But I feel like this is the slow build into that. Right. Like talking about this. Just a little bit and making sure that he gets in the Israel point, which is important and I'm sure going to aggravate a lot of his strongest supporters like the Mark Levin's of the world, even if Bibi is saying that it's fine, you know, that it's not something that they need and that they're in good position. But I think that this is a big deal and an indication that things are going to ramp up right after. And if he is a wartime president, then he feels like he's on safer footing. Running a business shouldn't feel like surviving a software group project. One app for accounting, another for inventory, another for sales, and somehow none of them talk to each other. That's where Odoo comes in. An all-in-one business management software that brings every part of your business together. From sales and accounting to inventory and marketing, all in one powerful platform. 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We're here to help with the Vox Media Group. podcast network tiger sisters releases every monday and we decode money power and love and who doesn't love all those things we are the internet's wall street and silicon valley big sisters tune in every monday for late night sister talk meets boardroom strategy check out tiger sisters on youtube spotify or wherever you get your podcasts welcome to the tiger fam okay jess before we get to audience questions let's talk about the results coming into night there are a few early bellwethers worth watching polls close in indiana and kansas at 6 p.m eastern followed by florida georgia and south carolina at seven it's important to be aware we might not have results by tonight in 2022 and 2024 it took eight days to call which party would control the house i can't i don't want to vex but i think we're going to earlier than that but jess what races or districts will you be watching most closely what could give us an early indication of the broader national picture yeah well i wanted to say already in a very high-profile way that we're going to be watching the broader national picture contested toss-up race new york 17th westchester county mike lawler sitting republican with kate conley as the democratic challenger westchester county is already having trouble with their ballots so the ballots are too thick for the machine to count so that is going to turn into a hand count they say you know no one is yelling fraud or anything like that but that is already one issue in a toss-up race that is already happening um i mentioned kentucky sixth uh was zach dembo uh super cool background navy jag prosecutor ninth generation kentuckian he seems like the type of candidate who could pull this off um and ralph alvarado uh who's the republican is really bad he's one of the ones who started uh taking trump off of his website and and tried to go from like america first to you know conscientious independent thinker types um 6 p.m closing that's a trump plus 15 district if dembo pulls that off big indication that it could be a good night for democrats i already mentioned a little bit about how important some of these florida races are this is where they did a big gerrymander that might only net them potentially one seat so in florida's 14th if uh kathy castor can hang on and florida's 25th with jared moskowitz and my expectation is that they will be able to um so that turns into a dummy mander obviously south carolina it'd be super interesting the results there even if darlene graham wins what does that margin look like as a harbinger of things to come a lot of action in virginia uh if democrats flip virginia's first which was trump plus five and then virginia fifth which is trump plus 12 people also closely watching virginia's second there was gerrymandering in north carolina to um north carolina first the republicans actually started pulling money out of there um so i'm curious as to how that turns out and what these early vote trends portend for actually election day do a sea of republicans turn out or if these democratic candidates are just so good and the roy cooper of it all pennsylvania brian fitzpatrick's district so he is one of the only conscientious republicans i would say is out there you know voted against signature legislation of the president is always on him about um actually abiding by the constitution that's pennsylvania's first um if he is defeated that certainly signals a broader wave coming our way and i think that's one of the things that i think is really important for us to be aware of and i think that's what we need to be aware of and i think that's what we need to be aware of and i think that's what we need to be aware of and i think that's what we need to be aware of and i think that's what we need to be aware of um i also am very interested in pennsylvania's eighth uh page cognetti's race you know page against the machine uh mayor of scranton um there are toss-ups in michigan that everyone is also watching closely in the 7th and the 10th and then 8 p.m texas what happens obviously with the talarico paxton race but these house races especially in the rio grande where they tried to gerrymander this um so johnny garcia bobby palito etc so those are some early in the night trends that i'm paying attention to but keep in mind that counting can take forever and i think it was sad about you know in michigan you know detroit comes in last that's where they always start screaming fraud they're like oh how did this happen we were doing so well lions go lions yeah um i'm very curious as this story the hayley stevens brouhaha continues um what the numbers actually look like in abdul and uh mike rogers's race i've seen little indication um besides a few random voters that were interviewed that demonstrate that hayley stevens had a positive impact for mike rogers and that it actually is just you know about her at this point um that the folks who felt the way that she does were already voting for mike rogers or leaving it blank um but you know there could be a bit of a surprise there but the numbers are going to be a bit of a surprise there are just so big to have a new york times has abdul up 11 um and it would have been 16 uh in the old formula the old methodology for the new york times poll um so they have you know taken gone to great lengths to make sure that they are not over sampling democrats um and might even be waiting it a bit to the right what are you watching how are you well you have a show yeah we're in we're in toronto there's something actually quite comforting about being in canada on election day i'm in new york right now but i'm having a lot of fun i'm having a lot of fun i'm having a lot of fun soon after but what could be a surprise i don't know if you've heard but hayley stevens has threatened to endorse a republican every day until she all her demands are met little hostage humor little hostage humor from the dog at election day uh all right let's move on to our fans questions or maybe not our fans listeners uh add heather sharp ass will vance abandon trump if the tsunami yield uh yields 57 senate seats for the next election for democrats by the way that would be called a super tsunami vance abandons trump what do you think no well where would he go who is vance without donald trump that's right well who is vance with mike pence no not even and i'm not like an enormous mike pence person we we like anyone heard from mike pence that worked out for him every once in a while he writes an op-ed and he had a book he seems so reasonable now doesn't he i know and i'm like oh my god i dream of like a george bush mike pence where i mean really just admit romney one that's the one that i kind of hate myself all of a sudden everyone loves romney i know well okay nord wants to know if trump loses the swing state's hardest hit by his tariffs will he retaliate by targeting canada with further tariffs that's an interesting question what what do you think you're do you guys have a guest tonight are you not we have yeah i think we have either the prime minister the deputy prime my guess is we have a hockey player i'm going to go out on a limb and just assume it's something to do with hockey by the way of the seven cities we're in toronto sold out in 24 hours we're big in canada jess it's awesome we love canadians and canadians love us well i hope you have mark cartney and you're just being coy about it um because enormous fan obviously uh yeah i think he's gonna blame everyone but he's probably most of all gonna blame these candidates and say like you were all just really shitty and i gave you everything right i was last man standing had all of these rallies for you and you couldn't seal the deal against the communists well i i say i was thinking i don't know the answer to that question as i think it through i think most likely he might try but i think with the types of numbers the democrats will have in congress and the lame duckness of the president you might find enough republicans to get in the way of this tariff nonsense i think there's a lot of republicans who are free market people who are who are were pretty early and often voice concern and they might just even find their backbone even stiffened more once the midterms are over and the momentum is swiftly turned against the president so if i had to guess whether the tariffs get worse or better it would be that they either stay the same or get better let's go to question three grapes and goose asks grapes and goose good for you assuming the polls are correct how likely does impeachment seem to you if the dems take the house and 52 plus senate seats zero impeachment of donald trump yeah impeachment of pete hegseth yeah very high at least 50 50 um really see i think it's higher than that for hegseth i think it's almost i think agree with you i think it's almost zero for uh for uh going after the president because the argument in the in the solid argument would be one it's a distraction and two let voters decide in 23 months if they want to repudiate his policies or whatever it would be a huge distraction supreme court's given him like immunity for everything and you're still you're just not going to get republicans to do this because then it would be a betrayal of the base even more right like they've suffered enough at this point um i think it'd be a big waste of time but it's interesting seeing that pig pete hegseth is uh apparently poking around for the tennessee senate seat if marcelo is going to be in the Senate seat and he's going to be in the Senate seat and he's going to be in the Senate seat and he's going to be in the Senate seat and he's going to be in the blackburn becomes governor which is the expectation um so maybe he wants to you know take himself out of dodge um before it gets really hot but obviously if there are hearings he has to come back for all of that that's interesting would he have a shot at that senate seat i just don't have a feel for tennessee politics yeah there is some uh stress between him and marcia blackburn he he wanted to run for a senate seat there before but he hadn't lived in the state for long enough because they moved down to tennessee and he's going to be in the senate seat for a Nashville a few years ago, but you could see a case for it. You could also see a case for Marsha Blackburn going with someone who she's closer with, you know, and doesn't necessarily have the warmest relationship with Pete Hegseth. So it's an interesting subplot to follow. Right. And our last comment comes from Brandon King, and it says, love the energy Scott is bringing. That's right. This was the wrong morning to give up math. Everybody, Jess, everybody wants a bad professor that'll be good to you. All right. Let me balance that out with a closing comment. A lot of young men listen to this podcast with the Democrats have been awful at and what the Republicans have been amazing at is the Democrats are seen as the identity politics, more socially conscious people who don't understand growth in the economy. And the Republicans have been amazing, amazing at attaching their brand to economic growth. Young men are the swingiest of swing voters, and they basically vote incorrectly or correctly. Who and what is going to put more money in their pockets as they try and form families? And I've said this before, and I'm going to say it again. I went back to 1980 when we pivoted from a manufacturing to a service and technology economy, largely seen as the pivot point when we became the modern economy that is the wondrous U.S. economy and pulled away. China was supposed to beat us. Japan was supposed to beat us. Now we have left them both in the dust, I would argue, economically. I went back and I divided Republican and Democrat presidential administrations. There's been 12 administrations, six and a half Republicans so far, coming up on seven and five Democratic. I looked at GDP growth, I looked at job growth, and I looked at deficits and averaged them across Democratic and Republican administrations. Across Republican administrations, we've averaged an additional one million jobs per year. Under Democratic administrations, we have added an average of two million jobs per year. We've added double the number of jobs when a Democratic administration is in the White House over the last 48 years. Now, with respect to growth of the economy, on average during Republican administrations, we have grown GDP by 2.1%. Under Democratic administrations, we have averaged, get this, Jess, a growth in the GDP of 4.1%. The economy has grown on average almost twice the growth of Republican administrations. Under Democratic administrations, well, okay, tax and spend liberals, it's juice growth that is running up the deficits because they're irresponsible tax and spenders. Actually, the percentage that we have added, we being Democrats, to the deficit has averaged 2.1% per year of GDP. Under Republican administrations, they have averaged an increase in the deficit of 2.8% of the GDP. So, let's summarize. When you have Democratic administration and policies, of a more progressive tax rates on corporations and the wealthy that gets reinvested in technology, infrastructure, and education to support the middle class, which is the engine, the engine of economic growth, you end up with more jobs. You end up with more economic growth and lower deficits. So, if you're like me, when I was a young man and you didn't want to save the whales, you weren't concerned really with social policy, and I know that sounds terrible, but that's who I was, and that's who a lot of young men are. I wanted bank. I wanted to splash the cash. I wanted to fling the bling such that someday I could have a family and have economic security. If you're that guy, like me, then this is an easy one. Vote blue. More prosperity, more opportunity, more growth, lower deficits. Jess, I'll give you the final word. I think that's it. Absolutely. With it. As a former young man myself who did want to splash the cash and fling the bling or whatever. Yeah. Vote blue. Let's have a great night. And I'll be on Fox from like 830 to 1 a.m. So, tune in. Hopefully, I'll be happier than I was in 2021. I'm hoping you're just gloating. I'm hoping you're just sitting there smiling, looking at everybody like, yeah, what happened in Michigan, guys? Let's tune in. Oh, really? Oh, wait. Hold on. South Carolina's close? Oh, really? Talk about that, Jessi. Oh, Greg. Wait, wait. Hold on. Hold on. It's looking like the polls are similar to your posture, like collapsing. Collapsing. Anyway, sorry. Couldn't resist. You never can. All right, Jess. We're going to leave it there. We'll be back tomorrow live on YouTube and Substack at 1.30 p.m. Eastern to review all the results we have available. Make sure to subscribe to stay up to date with our coverage. And most importantly, get out and vote if you haven't already. We have been here before. There's been times in America when one percent of the population enslaved people controlled the government. We bounced back and came back harder. There were moments in history where we were interning people in the concentration camps, good American citizens because of their Japanese heritage. We knew we fucked up. So we came back even stronger and we strengthened our democracy. That happens here and today. What does it say here? What does it say here, Jess? Get out. Vote. Our nation. Be the D in democracy. Let's do this. Let's go. That coffee is crazy that you had. All right. All right. Vote. Our nation. Let's do this. Let's do this. Let's do this. Let's do this. Let's do this. We're in the AI era where agents access data, use tools, make decisions, and automate work across the enterprise. It's tremendous innovation, but it's also an incredible cybersecurity challenge, one that CrowdStrike helps solve. 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