Democracy Wins in Brazil and Serbia

the world is brought to you by three day blinds. We got three day blinds here in the Cricut Compatroom. The thing about the old blinds was they sucked. And they didn't work. And the sun would stream in in the afternoon. And you couldn't sit on one side of the room because it would blind you. And then three day blinds came in and they installed really great blinds. And they work perfectly and they make the room usable. And there's so much better and everyone's happier. And we're like, why didn't we do this like three years ago? But we learned, a little too late, that there's a better way to buy blinds, shade, shutters, and drapery. It's called three day blinds. They're the leading manufacturer of high quality custom window treatments in the US. You can shop for almost anything at home. Why not window treatments? Three day blinds has local professionally trained design consultants with an average of 10 more years of experience who provide expert guidance on the right blinds for you and the comfort of your own home. Just set up an appointment and you'll get a free no obligation, quote, the same day. Not very handy, not a problem. The expert team at three day blinds handles all the heavy lifting. They design, measure, and install. So you can sit back, relax, and leave it to the pros. Three day blinds has been in business for over 45 years and they've helped over 2 million customers get the window treatments of their dreams. So they are brand you can trust. Right now, get quality window treatments that fit your budget with three day blinds. Head to threedayblinds.com/world for their buy one, get one 50% of deal on custom blinds, shades, and drapery for a free, no charge, no obligation consultation. Just head to threedayblinds.com/world. One last time, that's buy one, get one 50% off when you head to the number three, d-a-y, blinds.com/world. (upbeat music) - Welcome back to "Pot David World," I'm Tommy Vittor. - I'm Ben Rhodes. - And I think this is a very rare episode in "Pot David World" history because I think it's majority good news. - Yeah, how about that for change? - Well, there's a big TBD with the Israeli election. - But we have some great news. - The fact that we're having the Israeli election, I think, feels nice. But the first two stories are like, unequivocally good. - Just all good. - Good stuff. - Outcomes. - Good vibes. - The vibes are macular to "Pot David World." - It's a strange feeling 'cause we're used to just like, dropping something really weighty on you guys and then walking away from it. - No, we got a lot of joy today. People turn the volume up, pop that out of the bowl and just sit back. - Roll the windows down, yeah, yeah, Tim Miller, you're not gonna fall asleep to this one. - Yeah, yeah, yeah, Tim, stand up for this one. - All right, so we're gonna start with this stunning come from behind victory for President Lula De Silva in Brazil and the presidential runoff election. We will explain how Lula defied all the odds, all the expectations to pull this off. Then we're gonna talk about this incredible student led protest movement that turned into an election victory in Serbia, another story that we've been tracking for a couple of years now, but it's just amazing to see what has become. Both these elections, by the way, should be studied by like progressives all over the world. - Yes, yes. - The tactics, the strategies, everything they did. Then we're gonna let you know what we know about the Israeli elections, where the polls just closed. We don't have results yet, as we probably won't for a while. Ben and I were just-- - We have exits. - We have exits. - We have exits, yeah, college kaboots, as they're still out. - Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Ben and I were laughing now that the most likely outcome here is some agonizing non-alcom for months and months and maybe like another election or something. - We'll see, God help us. BB bombing like a 12th country or something. But we'll tell you about the process, kind of the madness that led up the election. Then we're gonna talk about the return of opposition leader Maria Machado to Venezuela, sadly without her Nobel Peace Prize, I think, as Trump stole it. - Is that, do we know that? Like what happened to the actual physical prize? - I mean, he said she gave it to me. - Yeah, but we, it's not, I've not seen it displayed. Like it's been kind of ambiguous. Did she give it to him to hold it for a little bit or does he literally have custody of the Nobel Peace Prize? - Here's my question for you. Does he seem like the kind of guy who, if offered the opportunity to get a big gold thing would not take it or demand it? - You would take it. - You know what I mean? I figured he melted it down. - It would be somewhere on the hallway to the restroom at the Saddam Hussein, the chief secretary that he used. - It's definitely been hammered flat and it's like hanging above some bureau. - Yes. - Anyway, then we're gonna talk about a surprising new entry in the race to become the next UN Secretary General and why it seems like a bad idea on its face. - Not the best idea. - And it's candidly. - And then Ben, you did our interview today. What do you, what do you talk about? - Well, along the lines of what you're saying about learning lessons, I talked to Pedro Tellus who runs or helps run Democracy Hub. This incredible organization that helps build movements and organize people to fight back against the far right and not that our turn is around the world. Pedro was involved in some of the mobilization efforts around civil society and social movements in Brazil. We basically just talked about how did they go from losing in the first round to winning in the second round? Like what were the tactics that they used? How did they mobilize young people? How did Lula change his campaign team and his campaign tactics? How did they build this huge 10 million plus WhatsApp group? There was critical. And then a little bit about like what happens next? What happens next for the far right? What happens next for the progressive left inside of Brazil? - So it's very good, you know, and Pedro is very specific too. So you can definitely like take out your notebooks, take notes on what worked 'cause this guy was on the ground in Canterals. - Good, good, good, good. 'Cause we'll do some of that but I think it's important to get granular in this. - Yes, he got quite granular. It's pretty fascinating actually. 'Cause we also talked about the meta problem, you know, - The company? - Or the signature. - Well, both actually, but the company and how they were trying to rig it for Bolsonaro, but how they figured out some tactics. - I think I'm gonna go around that, which is interesting, including these WhatsApp groups that are not subject to the same algorithmic bias as other meta products. So it was good. - 'Cause yeah, people should be studying this and stealing these tactics. So let's start in Brazil because the don row doctrine got punched in the face by Brazilian voters. Lula da Silva pulled off the shocking victory in the past weekends presidential election. If you have Whiplash, so do we. Like listeners might have heard our very depressing coverage of the first round of the election. Lula got 45% of the vote. Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro got 47% goes to a runoff 'cause nobody got a majority, 50%. But after that first round, like every single analyst I talked to thought that Flavio's victory was all but assured because other right wing candidates would drop out and those votes would seemingly go to Flavio Bolsonaro. And also I don't think any candidate ever in Brazilian history has like lost the first round of one in the second. There's like nine elections. It's a small sample, but still. But instead Lula managed to get like more than 10 million additional votes and he decisively beat Flavio by 51.8% to 48.2%. So everyone wants to know how he pulled this off. You go deeper on this stuff. But I talked with our former colleague Nick Zimmerman again this morning. He pointed to three big factors. The first or something you just mentioned there was Lula turned the campaign over to this young girl, more digitally savvy group of staffers who ramped up his social media presence. I think Lula bought a cell phone for the first time. - The first time. - On this campaign? I mean, that might have been something you did in preparation for a run. - Yeah, yeah, yeah. - Just, I don't know, I'm not 80, but-- - No, what the young ones are doing? - Just to thought. But there's this guy, Andre Janones, who took over the digital channels, grew this 10 million WhatsApp, 10 million person, WhatsApp group called Lula's army. 7% of the electorate was like in this WhatsApp group. - Crazy. - It's crazy. And they were just hammered, like he was like their general. He was telling them to crank out content like a couple times a day. Pro Lula, anti-Bolsonaro. And apparently they were so successful. They're like Claudia Sheenbaum and Pedro Sanchez are like summoning them to their capitals to be like, teach us. - Yeah. - Morris Katz has got a-- - Yeah, he's got some competition now. - Who's texting with Morris this morning? I was thinking, like, you guys should link up. - Yeah. - That'd be a hell of an interesting group. 3 million more Brazilians voted in the second round than the first. There's never been that big of a jump from the first to the second round. And then third, there was this assumption that we talked about the voters who voted for neither Lula nor Flavio in the first round would go to Flavio in the second because most of those other candidates were center or far right. But about 75% of those voters went to Lula. And it's not totally clear why. Like, maybe their third party votes were just, like, middle fingers to the system votes. Or maybe they had buyers remorse because they saw how right-wing the parliament and the governor's seats became, but either way, they did not want Flavio. I saw some people said that Lula won by promising more social services, like higher welfare payments or limited debt relief. But Nick thought it was more likely that Flavio hurt himself when one of his advisors said, "They plan to phase out the Bolsa Familia program, which is this very popular and successful cash transfer program for low-income families." And then another front on the ground in Brazil said, he thinks the result was just like a rejection of Bolsonaro more than anything approval of Lula. And then Flavio got cocky after the first round, started talking openly about all the bad things he was going to do and voters are like, wait a minute, we don't want constitutional changes. We don't want cuts to the welfare programs. And also his corruption and unsavory ties were really hammered home in the debates. For example, Flavio's links to militia groups in Rio that extort and murder people. So Ben, initially, Flavio was threatening to challenge the results. The right-wing U.S. mega-media ecosystem was eager to join him. Trump didn't get the memo. Check out this supercut of kind of mega-media goons talking about the election followed by Trump. - This election is extraordinarily questionable. - There are too many anomalies. It doesn't make any statistical sense. - Secretary of State and then the President have to come out, cut off diplomatic relationships, shut down. Everything in Brazil, no trade, nothing. This is an illegitimate. This is a Marxist, globalist government. And if you don't think this is not going to happen here in the United States of America, you are dead wrong. - You want to make this the standard for elections going forward, what happened in Brazil? Then definitely vote Democrat, where they don't give a damn about free and fair. election. I don't know if I'm ever going to trust an election result, but again, because this is the most corrupt election result and election process that I've ever seen. >> Well, it looked terrible to me. I thought it was terrible looking. I didn't take sides, but it looked like another rigged election, frankly. I didn't take sides, but it was a terrible look for the world. It's another election. You know, elections have to be in dispute terrible. And it looked very bad to me. I didn't take sides. I didn't endorse anybody or anything, but I watched the election. It looked so corrupt, so terrible. >> So you wanted to do something about the election? >> Well, I'm not running Brazil. I'm running the USA, and I just thought that the election was, I like Lula. I get along with it very well. I just think it had a very bad look in the election, the way it was capulated. >> So that was Ben Shapiro, one of those TPU USA shows Steve Bannon really raged in on Geno, then Benny Johnson, like getting outraged about the Brazilian election. Something I'm sure they thought about a while. >> Sure, Benny Johnson calls this quite close. >> Yeah, then Trump not caring and being like, I don't want the stink of loser on me. For what it's worth, they were upset because Brazil Supreme Court ordered the polls to stay open in additional two hours, something I think both campaigns asked for. >> Yeah, the implementation was a little messy. Bolsonaro seemed like he was going to use that as a pretext to say the election was stolen, but Trump took the wind out of his sales and then he conceded. Right before we started recording, it was confirmed that Flavio Bolsonaro has fled the country. It is now in Miami, maybe you can bunk up with a DB's kid down there. So Ben, we can get into the challenges ahead for Lula to govern. But unequivocally good news for the future of the Amazon and for climate change for the Brazilian people. What do you make of this election? What happened here? >> It's an incredible result. And look, Lula is an icon. He's an icon of left. He's the first person to be elected four times as President Brazil. He is like a generational political talent and that's clearly one part of what happened here. And he kind of found his sea legs. He campaigned with an added vigor. In addition to the list of things you identified, Tommy. He also kind of threw some progressive policies out there in the final days. I talked to Pedro about this. But he banned online gambling, which has been a real problem in Brazil. This was a turnout election, right? We have all these debates here in the Democratic Party about turnout versus persuasion that turned his fucking people out. Now all the credit that is due to Lula, he would have lost had it not been for this huge wave of youth enthusiasm. This online mobilization, different movements coming together, people putting whatever differences they have aside to try to save Brazilian democracy from the grips of the Bolsonaro family. And it's corruption and again, what you have is a combination of very innovative online tactics like creating these massive WhatsApp groups, but importantly giving people things to do. Like the important lesson to learn, I take away from this is not just that they had good content and they had good videos and Lula got a cell phone and started doing direct to camera videos. It's that they were instructing people like these are the messages to carry. This is the content to boost. This is the investigative journalism that you need to know about about Favio Bolsonaro. They really got their message out and made people feel invested in the outcome, not just for Lula, but for what they were all doing together. And you saw that in the celebrations that night. They all won. It wasn't just Lula who won. Like it was all these young people, all these different groups came together to get this done. And to do it, I mean, we should just take a moment on how extraordinary this is. They were the incumbent party and a deeply anti incumbent mood. So one of the reasons that you've had the far right winning across Latin America is just you had a bunch of left wing governments and cost of living's high and there's security issues and people are turning away from them to buck that trend with an 80 year old guy is an unbelievable term for his fourth term, right? And so, I mean, before we get into kind of what happens next, I think we do have to just sit with the fact that they found a recipe to turn their people out to make young people feel invested in politics, which we've had trouble with in this country to be innovative, to overcome. Look, meta clearly was juicing the algorithm. We can debate why they were doing that. And there have been a lot of legal actions against meta in Brazil that they clearly didn't like, but they were making it so that it was much easier to do things that favored Bolsonaro than Lula and they overcame that. So they beat big tech. They beat Bolsonaro. They beat Trump. They beat the trend in Latin American politics of things moving to the right. And they did it in the fourth largest country in the world. This is a huge result. I mean, I don't think you can overstate how important this is and how much we've been gifted this result by a lot of Brazilians who work their asses off. You know, I mean, it's a reminder that politics matters. I mean, the last thing I'd say to Tommy is I was on a WhatsApp group that I'm on with Pedro Tellus, who's the guest later and like a bunch of other activists around the world. And you know, the thing that I was reflecting on, you know, after the election is this is a reminder that like if you're an organizer, you can make a difference. Like this is a close election. Like the efforts to turn people out to get messaging out, like it can make the difference between whether your country stays a democracy or not. And like that's what these people achieved in Brazil. And that is really something to, you know, it's not just good news. And there's a lot of instant experts on bullying politics. You know, as there are a lot of instant experts in serving politics. We have been following this stuff. I don't claim that we're like the deepest experts. We have been following it for a while. And this is not the outcome that people expected. And that makes it all the better. Yeah. It's not just us who were surprised. I mean, Brazil's stock market dropped 14% on the news. Like the main index and the, and the rail dropped 8% against the dollar. So like the big money, the moneyed interests thought that Flavio was going to be their guy, their guy and the next president said they ran his ass out of town. He's sitting in Miami now because he's thought he was going to get prosecuted. Can we just say, I mean, there are a lot of things that happen that remind me of how long we've been doing this podcast. Do you remember that after Yaya Bolsonaro lost the election? He too decam to Florida. And we're making fun of him like eating in a fast food. Yeah, he's in Orlando. And he's like eating alone at fast food restaurants and stuff. Like son, like father here, you know, like following the same playbook. Have a good time. Florida is the exile land for every like right wing on a fixed right wing toy. Um, Bolsonaro is allies now. So a little bit of, you know, like a blanket here. So Bolsonaro's party and it's allies have a lot of seats in Brazil's party in parliament. If you add them up on certain issues, the kind of like the Bolsonaro rest does and the kind of like right wing has a majority. Yeah. I mean, you could get some kind of like the close to veto proof of majorities and some issues. But, um, with with Flavio Bolsonaro, like, you know, running off to Miami, you do wonder if that kind of collapses the entire kind of movement and coalition. We'll see, I guess. Um, that don't get too hopeful. Lula is going to have some some real like fiscal financial problems. Like they're going to have to pay for the things he proposed in this election. He's getting pushed to make budget cuts. The bond markets are kind of swirling similar to what we talked about in France. Um, what's interesting is like, first of all, the right wing countries in South America and Latin America, like they did not wait one second for Trump to weigh in or they didn't buy it. Flavio's bullshit about the election being stolen like right wing hardline leaders in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, all recognize Lula's victory in advance of Trump. Um, that's a good thing. I think, you know, they know that Brazil is the the biggest fish in the region. They probably didn't want to piss off Lula. Um, it's interesting that Trump just doesn't seem to care. I mean, you know, I'm still a little worried then that there are kind of ideologues and Bolsonaro allies deep in the State Department and other US agencies. But, um, Trump kind of seems to like Lula. Yeah. Um, and I kind of think that Lula, I mean, it's not going to connect. It seems like unlikely like Lula's going to do a lot of foreign policy. A lot of like legacy burnishing stuff. I don't know that he's going to pick a lot of fights with Trump. I don't know. It's in his interest. Do you think? I don't think so. I mean, the, the one thing that might be an outlier there is Cuba, um, where, uh, Lula's had kind of a certain kind of solidarity with the Cuban government of the year. So if there's an invasion of Cuba, I think Lula would definitely break from that. I think, yeah, it's interesting. Like Lula is a iconic charismatic politician, a deeply flawed one too, when I'm here just to blow smoke. But Trump kind of recognizes that like the kind of game understands game thing, you know, um, I, what I will also say about the, the hemisphere though, uh, and then about Brazil specifically in the hemisphere. Yeah, acknowledge this right wing trend that we've seen and we've talked a lot about it. But at the end of the day, you know, by population, Brazil, Mexico, two biggest countries of, you know, are governed by outright leftists. Right. And very, right. You know, very strong politicians in Claudio Shane Baum and Lula. And then Mark Carney are guy, you know, in Canada. I mean, so this is a little bit of, sure, they can like dunk on us about Ecuador or something. But I mean, there's a, there's a, there's a meaningful, uh, counterweight in the hemisphere and that's, uh, that's important. Um, and it kind of, it, it punctures this sense of inevitably, and part of the thing that I've been struck by, and we'll get to the serving election, but there's this sense of like, the far right is always inevitable. And actually, I feel like, you know, we succumbed a bit to that. - We psych ourselves out. - But so did the even like mainstream media, you know, it's like, oh, this is a, this inevitable wave. No, like people get to decide here, you know, and hopefully what this does is puncture that sense of inevitability. This will be a win in the sale to opposition parties in all these other countries, and Latin America that are facing right when governments. Then in Brazil, specifically, as you say, the Amazon was on the fucking ballot, man, because if like, it balsa in our wins, and they opened this thing up to logging, like we've seen the reports that you could have an irreversible destruction in the Amazon. - And they're apparently like wildcat loggers who are like calling villages and threatening them and saying, we're about to come back, we're just waiting for like Flavia to take office. And now they're gonna have a real check from Lula, like the thing he can do. - That's the thing he can do that matters, right? And so, you know, that's important. I think the fact that Meta, you know, that they called out what Meta was doing, I don't know what Brazil's gonna do, but it's not gonna be good for Meta. I mean, it's good to see an American tech company, you know, step on a rake like this, because they shouldn't be able to fuck around in the politics of other countries like that. So that's important. And then yeah, like going forward, it's gonna be tough. And I will say this though, and Pedro made this point at the end of our interview, but like the Bolsonaro family was uniquely dangerous. Like they, you know, would pay tribute to Brazil's military dictatorship. They're wild, they corrupt. They are seemingly in bed with some of these criminal organizations. You know, if the right wing will win an election in Brazil someday, you know, like you don't get to win every election. It is better that it is not this family. And if at least this kind of ends the Bolsonaro to add to Brazilian democracy, that alone is something really important. And I think what's gonna happen next is some of these young people that helped organize this campaign are gonna have to take the torch from Mula 'cause he's not running again. And you're gonna have to see the Brazilian left regenerating is something else. And whether they can do that, or whether they fracture without Lula, I think will determine a lot of how the next few years go. - It's a little unnerving that now Flavio Bolsonaro and his other brother who is in the, they're both in the U.S. now and they're gonna be able to plot and plan with Marco Rubio and Trump to the extent he cares. But then the, they brother younger than Flavio won a seat in the Senate, I think. Jair's wife is also gonna be a senator. I think that maybe the son won a seat in the other house. Either way. - Yeah. - Couple of other Bolsonaro's got elected, but I was told that the wife hates the sons and thinks they're more on. So I think it's from a different marriage. So maybe they can always crack up the claim. - It's a familial dysfunction on the right there, yeah. - But yeah, no, there's still a real threat. I mean, as we saw, Jair's sitting in jail somewhere. He's not going anywhere like the families around, but good news. - Good news. - Good news. Speaking of the Global South Bend, let's talk about the American South. If you've not heard a long play, crooked media's limited series about the ever-changing political landscape of the American South, it is back on the air. Last season on long play, our former White House colleague, Jennifer Palmieri, an award-winning journalist, Aaron Haines, introduced us to the battleground states in the South that could define this midterm election. And his tensions rise in the Trump coalition and Republicans are back and out of races all over the country. They decided it was time to get back on the road and report firsthand on the unlikely swing states that Democrats are competing in to win back the South. Whether you heard first season or you did not, it's a must listen for anyone trying to understand this rapidly evolving midterm. Subscribe to long play on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. (upbeat music) Pots in the world is brought to you by Simply Safe. If you've been thinking about securing your home, there's no better time to protect it with Simply Safe. Right now, you can save 70% on a new system. They're biggest savings of the year. You've heard us talk about Simply Safe before because unlike traditional home security systems, it doesn't just record a react to a break-in once it's already begun. It's designed to keep threats away before they've even approached your door. Smart AI-powered cameras watch for potential threats and they alert a live, US-based agent ready to intervene. The agent intervenes in 130 seconds, speaking through the camera to stop and intruder on their tracks and call for an urgent 911 dispatch when it's needed the most. Our CEO, Lucinda, just had a Simply Safe system installed. She said the app is easy to use. It allows her to arm and disarm the system directly from her phone from anywhere. If she's ever unsure, if she's locked her door, she can check in the app and lock it from there, giving her the peace of mind that her home is always safe and secure. She can even monitor the cameras from the app to check in with family or friends as they arrive. We've partnered with Simply Safe to offer our listeners their biggest savings of the year. 70% off your new system with professional monitoring when you visit SimplySafe.com/CricketWorld. That's SimplySafe.com/CricketWorld. And when you order right in PodSafe's world that check out, it tells them we sent you and it really helps the show. Simply safe ahead of crime in real time. PodSafe's world is brought to you by Ridge. Anyone who commutes or travels even semi-regularly knows how life-changing a power bank for all your devices can be. And something so useful in everyday life is exactly what makes for a perfect gift and Ridge is making that really easy. From October 8th through November 5th, they're running their friends and family sale by two Ridge power banks and you get a third, one, four, free. So that's three genuinely useful gifts or gift two when you keep one for yourself because once you have the Ridge five-in-one travel power bank, you will never go back. Built-in cables, MagSafe wireless charging, Apple Watch Charger, Lightning and USB-C, everything you need to charge all of your devices with one power bank and no extra cables. Like everything Ridge makes, it's built to last with free shipping, 99 day risk free trial and a lifetime warranty. This is the last power bank you'll ever need. And if the power bank is not your thing, Ridge has plenty of other gifts to choose from, wallets in both classic and MagSafe options, phone cases, luggage, key cases, and much more. I'm actually looking at somebody's Ridge Ivan's right now. There's a very cool looking carbon fiber wallet. I think as RFID protection, it's got a place to put your cash. There's a carbon fiber key case that keep your keys safe. Ready to get ahead and start on your gifting. You can find Ridge's power bank at Best Buy in Amazon or head to Ridge.com/pstw for Ridge's friends and family sale where you can buy two Ridge power banks and get a third one for free. That's Ridge.com/pstw. Shop smart this holiday season with Ridge. After you purchase, they will ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell them our show sent you. Speaking of goodness, let's turn to this incredible set of events and elections in Serbia where President Alexander Vucic and his 12-year reign is now over. Vucic was deposed by a leaderless student movement. Like, that's a thing. There's no leader that deposed to most of this movement of students. And to understand the story, you really have to go back to November of 2024 when a newly renovated train station collapsed and killed 16 people in Serbia. Protesters, they blamed corruption and negligence in state contracting. It kicked off this massive protest movement that was led by university students. They occupied buildings, they blocked traffic. Over time, these protests expanded. It got beyond students. There's farmers and lawyers and professors. And the government, as they always are, was slow to respond. And when it did respond, they kind of reshuffled things. They didn't really make real changes or hold people to account. And so the protests grew. And they got, and they asked for more. And then, in another big inflection point was March of 2025. There were the largest protests in Serbia's history. I think the estimates were over 100,000 people in Belgrade alone. And the government response, it got hardened, it got more violent. But the students kept organizing. And they did if you had this series of plenums, which are group meetings, basically. And they organized themselves. I figured out next steps. And it was like kind of a slow-- I would imagine agonizing process, such as meeting after meeting after meeting and these overlapping plenums and organizations. But over time, they went from demanding accountability for the train station collapse to calling for new elections. And the opposition parties in Serbia were so weak that the students basically replaced them. And then they built this list of political candidates to run. That included professors, academics, actors, a basketball player, other public figures. Like anyone they thought would not be seen as tainted by corruption or the status quo. So fast forward to this year. And in September, parliament has dissolved. Vuchets called Snap Elections for October 25. And over the weekend, the student list of candidates got about between 135 and 140 seats in the 250 seat parliament while Vuchets' party got 105, which is just a dropping. And so you have this extraordinary moment where this brand new political movement just one power in Serbia, but again, it has no leaders. So that is incredible, but it's challenging going forward. Because they organized around the low-hang fruit of opposing Vuchets, but now they have to figure out what comes next, who leads them, who's the prime minister, who's the president. A talking guy earlier today, Ben is named Aegon Malicchi. He's a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. He's based in Albania. We should talk about those protests for a little bit too. I was just asking what to expect. He said that a lot of the international media is focused on geopolitics. What does this mean for Serbia's relationship with Russia, or China, or the EU? But that these students will really just focus on domestic issues, like rule of law and corruption. So he said, don't expect big swings on foreign policy. Don't expect movement on normalization with Kosovo, for example, if anything, they'll probably pull back from that process. But another challenge for them will be Vuchets' isn't going anywhere. His party got 40% over the last decade. He has captured every part of the state in the media in the industries. much like Victor Orban. So they're gonna have to figure out kind of like they didn't hungry like who to purge, when do they purge them. And you know, this is just unprecedented 'cause like even in hungry like, you know, that came from a former member of the Fidaz party, right? - Yeah, he didn't party here. - Like this is just unprecedented. It's about just students running random people. So incredible story and inspiring one, but any other takeaways for you? - I think that again, the main takeaway here is number one, an anti-corruption message. It can really resonate today. You know, and that's talking about a lesson for us. - Yeah. - This was entirely rooted in a sense of just disgust with accumulated corruption over a decade of Hoochich's domination of Serbian politics. We've covered some of these corruption scandals 'cause our buddies like Jared Kushner and Rick Grinnell would occasionally make these cameos in Serbian corruption, right? So they're all swimming in that sea of grossness that we've talked about a lot. And so an anti-corruption mobilization message is one lesson. Another, again, young people, there's something happening. You know, you hear a lot of criticism of the passivity of younger people. Well, like look at Serbia. Look at what people just in Brazil. Look at, you know, even the movement in France, which is obviously one of the sideways with the riding. You're starting to see, you know, young people that are just fed up with the politics that doesn't represent them. And that's because of corruption. It's also 'cause of the state of education in these countries, the state of opportunity for younger people, AI coming online. So that's the second big lesson to me from Serbia is that a youth movement can go all the way. You know, now you're right. They have a problem in that in Hungary, had Peter Maggiar, who had given a lot of thought to the day after. Remember when he won, it was like immediately, like he was, you know, literally changing the interior, you know, talking about Trump. I mean, he was changing like how things looked. And he had lists of people that he was gonna purge. So they have work to do here. But again, Serbia. I mean, I don't, like what I like them to orient their foreign policy differently, yes. I'm more important for them to just get their own house in order here. - For sure. - But this has been, with Vyucic, it was a playground for Putin. I mean, it was just a playground for right-wing corruption and, you know, bringing them into a certain foreign policy agenda. We had reports we've talked about here of literally like training camps, like Russian saboteurs in Serbia, right? So this is a huge shift in a country that people might not have expected to take this step. And if you, again, you see a lot of warning signs of the far right. You still have the French election coming up next year. But like, hungry in Serbia flipping and flipping so decisively that Vyucic and Orban, you know, acknowledged defeat right away, that tells you again, there's nothing inevitable about these far right politics even in the countries where it's hardest overcome. - Yeah, a couple of things. First of all, I mean, to people that like scoff at protest movements, I think they learned from each other and they grow and they, you know, everyone like builds courage when you see others succeed. Like we saw this in the Arab Spring back. - I wouldn't want to be Eddie Rahman, Albanian. - I wouldn't either. Yeah, I think that the Serbian protest have already emboldened the protestors in Albania. - For sure. - And those protestors were emboldened and inspired by what happened in Hungary. And everyone was learning from the Gen Z protest. So it's all like kind of building and growing. - Italy, you're seeing this in Italy now? - Yeah, yeah. And then it's just, I think we have to just hammer home how big of a fixture Vuchich has been in Serbian politics. I mean, this was a guy who was served in the Milosevic era in the '90s. He was the information minister. Not a good guy. He came back as Deputy Prime Minister in 2012, became Prime Minister in 2014, President in 2017. It seemed like he was trying to return to the position of Prime Minister and just kind of being charged for a decade. - Paul Putin just, yeah. - And these students send his ass packing. Like that's extraordinary. - It is extraordinary. And again, with self mobilization, self organization, like not some like ex-political leader coming and kind of taking over the movement, they just built this themselves. And that's really extraordinary. - And the kicking off point was corruption, right? Look around this country. - That's the thing. - What is happening in Washington right now? What is upsetting people the most? - Corruption. - Again, if we want to connect some lessons here, it is like focused like a laser on corruption. Like the democracy issues are corruption issues. Tie those corruption issues to the shitty outcomes in your own lives. Give young people a reason to participate. From Brazil, take platforms and find innovative in new ways, not just to use them, but to use them to give people something to do so that they feel like they have agency in breaking up these systems of power that govern their lives. Tons of good lessons to mine. And I will say, like if they, we'll get to the Israeli election. But if the US election goes, not going to work the way we hope it goes, if you stack up, you know, the US election and the Serbian and Brazilian elections, like that's some meaningful momentum. Pedro Sanchez, hopefully can hang on in Spain. Like, there's a real opportunity here to kind of shift the needle away from the direction of the far right. - Yes. - Capture populism on the center left to left. You know, populism has been captured by the far right. And this in Serbia was a very populist election that shows you that populism can come with a reform-minded message. It's not a far right message. - And then you got to deliver on some of your problems as it leads to-- - Oh, so that's the hard part. - Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. - That's the hard part. All right, let's turn to Israel. So, Israeli voters just concluded their first election since October 7th, 2023. It is fair to say that I think most of the world is hoping that Israelis send BBN Yahoo packing, maybe to prison. But we don't have the results yet. So the early exit show that Netanyahu's like Hood Party has a small lead over his chief rival, but that the anti-Nenyahoo block is maybe beating the Netanyahu block. So basically, we know nothing. - It's like the last time I was like 53-50 for the Eisenkot block versus Netanyahu block, but the LeCood Party, the single biggest voter among the parties. - Yeah, and it's probably a decently sized margin of error. - Yeah, those good shifts. - We know the turnout's very high. Tens of thousands of Israelis flew home for the selection. You can't just vote absentee. You have to go home, but that's how much they care. They flew back. The government formation process could go on for weeks. If it's unsuccessful, it could trigger a new election. So basically, don't hold your breath here. But just some background on the process and then the kind of the mood music leading up to it. So just for context, folks should know, the Israeli Prime Minister is not directly elected the way we directly elect the president here in America. They have a nationwide proportional representation system. So you vote on a list of candidates to serve in Israel's parliament, the Knesset. Parties need to get 3.25% of the vote to get a seat. There was a recent times of Israel poll that suggested 10 or 11 parties will meet that threshold. So it's a motley crew. It's on our two party system. If one party were to get an outright majority of seats that's 61 out of 120, they could then immediately form a government. And that leader of the party would become Prime Minister, but that has never happened in Israel. And instead, what happens is the Israeli president typically taps the party that won the most seats. To negotiate, to build a coalition to get 61 seats in form a government. There's some wrinkles and other details, but that's the gist. So Netanyahu's main rival, as you just mentioned, Ben, is the former IDF chief of staff. Gadi Eisenkut. He was part of BB's war cabinet for eight months after the October 7th attacks and then quit. To be clear, Eisenkut is no liberal. He opposes the creation of a Palestinian state. He says he will curb violence in the West Bank, but support settlements. He says he will force a reckoning for October 7th, some sort of inquiry that will include Netanyahu, who was the only person who's escaped any accountability. He will hopefully purge the government of Netanyahu's corruption. Remember the guy's facing multiple charges for accepting gifts and other sketchy shit. I hope that he would be less of a reckless war monger than Netanyahu. I mean, Eisenkut's son was killed serving in Gaza. I believe his nephew was killed also. So he gets the war, understands it in a pretty profound way. He wants to force the ultra-orthodox to serve in the military. Speaking of war mongering, Ben, in the week leading up to the election, there was reportedly a massive internal fight between Netanyahu and the IDF chief of staff, because Netanyahu wanted to either renew air strikes on Iran or take some sort of action that was just short of an overt strike that was likely to provoke Iran into firing at them. Netanyahu publicly has framed this photo as existential. He suggested his loss could lead to a second Holocaust. He posted a photo of an AI-generated mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv. So he's been very subtle. I know we don't have the results. What do you make of what you've seen so far, how you feel about our chances in this one? So I think we do have enough results to know one thing, which is that part of the high turnout was that the Arab parties, the Arab voters really turned out, right? And remember, there's a significant population of palcing in Israelis, who are citizens in good vote. And based on some of the projections, they may have gotten up to 17 seats, right? And so what's interesting about that is that Eisenkot, no liberal, no even centrist, really. He's just less of a right-winger, but is a right-winger. Has pledged to, you know, has suggested he would not form a government with Arab parties. Well, now he has a pretty interesting choice to make. because if he's the one who's going to have to form a coalition, he can't do it without the Arab parties. And so he either has to say, I will form a coalition with these Arab parties that obviously don't support the settlement movement and obviously don't support annexation of the West Bank, or he probably can't form a government. And there's some kind of protracted caretaker, babies that Prime Minister still, there's another election, right? So the thing I would suggest people watch is, we know, because we know, baby would never form a government with the Arab parties. Will Eisenkot be willing to form a government if it means having to go into coalition with a bunch of Arab political parties? Because that's also a tell about what he can, what he would do as Prime Minister. You know, if he's so adamant that he doesn't want an Arab political party in his coalition, it's probably not someone that's going to pursue markedly different policies in the West Bank, that's the main thing. What baby's counting on, and this has worked for him in the past sometimes, it appears he may have lost, but then nobody else can form a government. He's kind of last man standing, he's the caretaker Prime Minister, and he nudges up his support in the next election. That seems to be the play that he'll run. Just a word about Eisenkot. I mean, one reason to be pessimistic, one reason to be optimistic. The reason he pessimistic is, in addition to being against the Palestinian state and having a right-wing outlook, even as a general, the doctrine that he is most associated with is one of collective punishment of people that attack Israel. It started in Lebanon. We have to not enough to target the his blow of commanders and fighters. We have to level neighborhoods, right? This guy probably wouldn't have been quite as unhinged as Netanyahu was and launching wars against however many countries, but no moderate with the Palestinians. That said, on the positive side, and Jasper made this point last week, he's not going to have Ben Gavir and Smotrich in his coalition. So, the aggression in the West Bank is likely to be curbed. The constant effort to draw America into wars in the Middle East that is Netanyahu's forte is probably not likely to happen either. So, it would be objectively better if Eisenkot was Prime Minister, even if it doesn't mean, oh, all our problems are solved with Israel, and we no longer have to think about that. No, all the problems are still going to be there, but life will get marginally less bad for the Palestinians, I think, under Eisenkot. And Israeli democracy itself won't have this kind of cancer of corruption than Netanyahu represents. And frankly, it'd be nice to see Bibinanyahu exit stage, right, and potentially go to prison for all of this. Listen, man, I don't know if it's coming after Vladimir Putin. It's probably not going to be good, but I'll be really happy to see the guy go. Right. I feel the same way. He's a real piece of shit. And to your point about collective punishment, look on Friday, two Palestinian militants shot and killed two Israeli soldiers near Hebron in the West Bank. There was like a 20-minute firefight through other people were wounded. Since then, Israel, they killed the two guys, but since then, Israel has leveled the neighborhood they were from, displacing hundreds of families. So this collective punishment policy is in place, whether a guy, the Eisenkot wins or not. Collective punishment was a war crime. That's not like our opinion. That's like what a war crime is. I think the three kind of scenarios are no government elections again in a couple of months. Yeah. Terrible, but you know, whatever it is. It is an Eisenkot coalition with at least one Arab party, which would mean him going back on what he had said. Then there's this idea of a unity government that would be Eisenkot and Netanyahu kind of gluing together. Netanyahu knowing him would say, why have to be Prime Minister first? And he'd probably do what he did the last time, which is make sure the other guy, the government collapses before the other guy, it takes power. But that would hopefully mean that you would jettison Ben Kabeer and smotress from that coalition. Yeah. And you know, it's a net benefit. It's not a great government, but it's a net benefit. He might say, because Trump is such a supporter of Netanyahu, okay, I'll be Prime Minister for the remaining two years of Trump's term. And then I'll exit, you know, then and hand it off, which is a pretty shitty outcome. You know, Trump and Netanyahu for two more years, yeah. Yeah, I don't know. It would be great if you just had like a little bit better. I'll delete her over there, but yeah, fingers crossed. Pots of the world is brought to you by Incogni. Have you ever wondered how unknown companies acquire your personal phone number? Data brokers, continuously harvest and sell personal information behind the scenes, creating a privacy concern that is frustrating to manage manually. While you legally have the right to opt out, doing it yourself is a time-consuming headache. Incogni acts as your personal privacy advocate, so you don't have to waste time tracking these brokers down. Just create an account, give them permission and incogni will automatically demand that data brokers erase your info. I think everybody needs a service like incogni at this time. There are so much information about us just swashing around the internet every time you sign up for something or buy something or get a credit card or whatever. Some data broker is buying and selling your information, and it could be used by hackers. It could be used by scammers. It could be used by people who are just really, really annoying. So get Incogni and they'll help you get rid of that information, get it off the internet. What's even better is that Incogni doesn't just do it once. They continuously monitor these sites to make sure your info stays off the market. And for those seeking total control, their unlimited plan features custom data removals. If you see your info somewhere, it shouldn't be just sending Cogni the link and their team of actual humans will step in to take it down for you. Take your personal data back within Cogni. It's even independently verified by Deloitte, so you know they're the real deal. Go to incogni.com/pstw and use the code PSTW to get 60% off an annual plan that's code PSTW at incogni.com/pstw for 60% off plus try at risk free for 30 days of your money back guarantee. Pods in the world is brought to you by Quo. Think about the last time you call the business and nobody picked up. What do you do? You call the next one. If you run a small business, your customers are doing the same exact thing to you. We've all been there. You need a garage door repaired or AC is on the fritz. You need someone ASAP. You can't just sit around waiting for a call back. That's why today's episode is brought to you by Quo, spelled Q-U-O. It's the business phone system built to your business never misses a call. Quo is the number one rated business phone system on G2, trusted by over 90,000 businesses who rely on it to stay reachable and look professional every day. With the Quo system, all your calls, texts, and voicemails live in one place, so anyone on your team can pick up a conversation, see the full history and respond fast. Set up in minutes on any device, keep your existing number and add teammates that you grow, no IT, no hassle. Quo seamlessly connects with the tools your team already uses, like HubSpot, Zapier, Claude, and more, so your team spends less time switching apps and chasing down information. Money is on the line. Always say hello with Quo. Try Quo for free. Plus get 20% off your first six months and you go to Quo.com/World. That's Q-U-O.com/World. Okay, Ben. Another interesting update from Venezuela. So on Sunday, the Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Machado announced she was back in Venezuela. For folks who don't know, Machado, for years, she was a very extreme, hard-line opposition leader in the country, very right-wing, by the way, but she refused any talks with the government, any appeasement. Then her politics evolved in 2023. She ran in and won this de facto opposition primary that was outside of the government process and unsanctioned, but she was overwhelmingly the choice of the opposition movement. The regime barged her from running in the actual election. So she selects this kind of like figurehead placeholder candidate to run, but she's really the person running behind the scenes. They win. The regime steals the election. Machado goes into hiding. She finally leaves the country in December of 2025 to go accept the Nobel Peace Prize in Norway that Trump then stole from her. Yes. So this return to Venezuela was a long time coming and she was out of the country for like 10 months. And for a while, like it's very clear that the Trump administration prevented or at least strongly discouraged her from returning to Venezuela. They wanted to work with Delsey Rodriguez, who was Maduro's number two, and kind of have this puppet regime controlled by Marco Rubio. Reuters said that Machado's return was approved by Trump that it was coordinated by the U.S. Panama and Colombia. So here's Trump talking about Machado and Venezuela at a couple of, it was a conversation with reporters and then an event recently. I don't know anything about it, but I think she's a very nice woman. She gave me her Nobel Prize. So how can I say anything else? And I hope she's safe. She's a very nice woman, but we're doing really well in Venezuela. They're making hundreds of billions of dollars. Our country is on oil. And then on top of it, we have Venezuela. And we have Greenland, because Greenland has a lot of oil. So we're making hundreds and hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars. But I said, I don't give a damn. I'm going to say it. We'll make it a freaking fortune. Earlier this month, Rubio met with some other Venezuelan opposition leader in Washington. It's like clear if Machado is going to be part of those kinds of talks going forward. So I don't know. Ben, here's what you make of all this. I think it goes to the question that she's got a lot of guts. She's probably not necessarily safe on the ground. And then as well right now, it'll be interesting. interesting to see how willing she is or is not to criticize the Trump administration's progress towards elections or how hard she pushes for elections. - Or that oil deal, which can't be very popular. - Yeah, just looting their oil fields. - What do you think, what happened here do you think? - I'm, she get back in. - I have an absolute theory of everything. - I want to hear it. - I want to hear it. - Because they were preventing her from going before. Remember she wanted to go after the earthquake and they said no. - Yes, yeah. - What is a week from today? - Armored terms. - So last week, Marco Rubio pops up any tweets. Now is the time for the Cuban people to rise up and the CIA will work with you - Right. - If you're discreet about it. And oh, then all of a sudden Maria Machado pops up in Venezuela and Marco Rubio is out there saying, oh, this is a part of the process that we're negotiating because we want democracy in Venezuela. Well, in Florida, there is a very large Cuban vote and there is a very large Venezuelan vote. And a lot of those people feel like on the Venezuelan side, for instance, they're originally very excited about Maduro's removal but then very disillusioned by the US government that is revoking temporary protected status for Venezuelans and deporting them out of the country. And like step armoring Maria Machado. I frankly believe this cynic in me, this is just a play. It's like a Florida election play. We got to make sure we hold the governor's seat there like, you know, make sure Angie Nixon has no shot. Make sure that we hold a couple of these vulnerable house districts. I honestly think that's what's happening. It's like, we're just like throwing a bunch of churns. - Makes sense. - Right wing Cubans and Venezuelans in Florida. Keep them happy, get them turned out. I see them demonizing Angie Nixon now on, she's not stridently enough against the Cubans. Honestly, I just think that's what's happening. Now. - What's weird about it's a little more subtle and sophisticated than what Trump is doing, which is like, I'll give you five grants. - Yeah, yeah, yeah. - Give you $1,000,000. - I'm not using it for a sophisticated political plan. - Yeah, Ruben is a little more sophisticated, but no less Craven. 'Cause I, that, that, what else explains the timing of this life, you know, coup, call and Cuba and Maria Machado showing up. Oh, just right before election. Now, they haven't made promises that there'll be some roadmap to elections though. And so, the thing to watch there is, is that true? Will that continue after the midterm elections? 'Cause all Trump seems to care about is getting the oil. I don't think Trump cares for this election in Venezuela. Rubio cares, 'cause it's Rubio's political future that is tied to those communities. If there are elections, do they actually let people run? Are they free and fair? Will they buy by the results? There's a lot of questions to be answered still. I find this to be, I mean, glad she's there. I, she's not my politics, like she should be clear. She's like a right-wing person, but she's a small-de-democrat. I'd prefer a elected small-de-democrat right-winger to a corrupt, delsy Rodriguez. So, you know, like I admire what she's doing. But we'll see, 'cause I, you know, Trump gives away the game every time he opens his mouth about events, well, it's nothing new, democracy. When Trump is net, Rubio pays lip service to this. Trump is not set a word about democracy since they asked him to draw. It's just this oil, it's just the money coming in. No, and he knows delsy'll keep the money coming in. Same with Iran, too. Remember, he was gonna ride to the rescue of the Iranian protesters, now he could care less. He's trying to starve them all out. It's awful. All right, so last issue for us, for you at the Benz interview. So, we wanna talk about the race to become the next UN Secretary General. This person is basically, you know, the CEO and the top diplomat at the UN. You run the organization, you try to media conflicts, you bring big issues to the fore and get attention and serve as kind of the spokesperson for the UN. So it's a big job, it's an important job, but also a tough one 'cause the UN Security Council and its member states have the real power, and they hate each other. They hate each other and you don't have an army and they do. So, they have many army. So, there's a new entry into this contest that has shaken things up a bit. The UAE nominated Lena Zaki Nasebe. She's the former deputy foreign minister, they nominated her this week. A little bit of background on her. She's the 47 year old Palestinian from Jerusalem. She spent the majority of her career as a diplomat, and her family moved to the UAE after the war in 1967. Her dad was an advisor to the founding father of the UAE, so she's like highly connected in the Emirates. In 2023, she helped pass a UN resolution that facilitated humanitarian aid into Gaza, and that's the thing she deserves credit for, but a lot of folks are focusing on when they talk about her. So, it seems like her candidacy is gaining steam because she's a known quantity at the UN. The UAE has a lot of political swat, despite its small size. You're seeing people vouching for her on Twitter, her professionalism, her competence, including very senior people like Brett McGurk, who work for Joe Biden. People with business interests in the Middle East. People with business interests in the Emirates. What is weird and gross about this, though, Ben, is, and it's not about her necessarily, is it everyone that is vouching for her, which is looking past the UAE's human rights record? So, we've covered in detail the way the UAE is funneling arms to the RSF in Sudan. The RSF is the one half of the civil war in Sudan. It's a rebel group, militia group that has been fighting there for several years now, and it's the worst humanitarian war. The worst on the planet. Yeah, and the UAE's been providing them with drones and all kinds of weapons. The AP reported that Nasebe was the UAE's point person for a while assuring other governments that they were not backing the RSF, which they were, which they were, which was just a lie. So, the UAE is also a key backer of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Ethiopia. We've talked about his militarism, pick and fights with Eritrea, the Tigrayans, et cetera. So, I don't, what do you think this candidacy came from? What's behind it? What is happening here? This is a real cynical one, because, okay, first of all, there's already been like a pretty prolonged series of campaigns to be the next UN Secretary General, right? And one of the things you hear about her is that, oh, we need a woman. Well, there are a number of women who've already been running for Secretary General and mounting campaigns. The leading candidate is a former Vice President of Costa Rica who's currently running the UN Trade and Development component. You've got a series of other women, mainly from Latin America. So, don't buy this thing that like, this is the woman candidate. Antonio Gutierrez has said that it should be a woman and most of the people running are women. You know, I think what's happening here is the UAE wants maximum political influence around the world, like it's not subtle. I had heard a lot of rumors about this candidacy because the UAE was kind of going around and trying to line up support for her. So, one of the reasons why you saw a lot of well-crafted tweets, like it seemed ready to go, they've been prepping the ground for this campaign for weeks. This is Muhammad bin Zayed, the leader of Abu Dhabi, leader of the Emirates, like getting behind her with all of his political muscle, which is considerable and trying to get her in there. The problem with this is you mentioned, most acutely, there's support for the RSF and the role she played in kind of running cover for that. Also, the war in Yemen, I mean, what we've talked about. The UAE's like utterly climatist involvement in the Yemeni Civil War. Yeah, the Saudis get most of the blame for it, I think, probably rightly, but they were, they're key partner. Key partner Emirates, right? They basically divided the country in half. I think the Emirates took the South and they took the North, they broke it up. And then you mentioned Ethiopia. I mean, the problem with this beyond just the fact that the UN Secretary, the reason it tends to come from places like Costa Rica, you know, or Cofiana was from Ghana or Gutierrez is from Portugal. The reason you tend to have people from these kind of smaller countries is that they're not countries that fuck around commit human rights abuses, you know. So they have a credibility of, you know, I don't have all this baggage. And the other problem with it is, where is the UN, as we talked about, where is it most needed? It's most needed in places like Sudan, where there's no government and you need someone to kind of come in and mediate. It's needed in places like Ethiopia, where you have to get, you know, negotiated ceasefires to get humanitarian assistance in. And so, look, I don't know her. She may be a quite capable person. I just don't think anybody that comes from a government like the UAE's should, I don't frankly think an American should be the Secretary of General because we cause all kinds of fucking problems in the world too. Like, there's a reason you kind of turn to these more neutral countries to produce the leadership. So I just find this all kind of cynical. Does feel a little cynical. I mean, maybe there's a way to demand some sort of trade, like yes, we'll support her. If you affirmatively cut off support for the RSS, stop doing these creative idea. You know, yeah, now you're no bad ideas and bets again, you know, potentially good ideas. We're just winging it here. Yeah. Yeah. That's a weird one. It does feel like they're just kind of creating this like tree. Then there was this rumor that Trump was backing like Victor Robon or something. Oh my God. I forgot about that. That almost felt like the conspiracy theorist to me was like, hey, let's create such an objectionable candidate. Yeah. Now she's like the neutral candidate. You have a Goldilocks. That shit. Goldilocks is shit. Like hold my beer. Like we're not Victor Robon. You imagine what he want. That's maybe what he just wants. He's a troll. It's a great trolling. Yeah. The troll. Anyway, well, it was nice to talk about some hopeful stuff, Ben. We're going to take a quick break. But when we come back, you'll hear Ben's conversation with Pedro Tellus about more granular detail about how the hell Lula pulled this victory off. Brazil. So stick around for that. Get out your notebook, as Ben said. Write some stuff down, steal some good ideas because we got to do this all over the world. Ponte the world is brought to you by Quince. Once the night start getting a little cooler, there's nothing better than getting into a really comfortable bed at the end of the day. It's the time of year when great sheets, a soft duvet, and an extra layer or two really make a difference. Quince makes hotel quality bedding using premium natural materials for lasting comfort. Their 100% European linen is woven from premium flax to get softer with every wash while their organic cotton bedding is breathable and credibly smooth and made for everyday comfort. Whether you prefer the relaxed feel of linen or the crisp softness of cotton, Quince makes it easy to create a bed deal dream about and their quilts, coverlets, and duvet inserts are perfect layers that will make any bed feel complete. Everything at Quince is priced at everything at Quince is priced 50 to 80% less in similar brands. They work directly with the ethical factories that cut out the middle bin. So you're paying for the premium materials, thoughtful craftsmanship, not the traditional brand markup. I love Quince about a ton of stuff there. I bought workout shirts and kind of basics. I bought some really great shoes that were so much cheaper than a very similar brand that I saw online. My kids wear Quince stuff. They've got leggings for little girls. They've got a ton of stuff. Go to the website, check it out. You will find something you want and it'll be great quality and a much better price. Make your bed your favorite place to be this season with Quince. Download the Quince app for app exclusive offers or go to quince.com. Get free shipping on your order in 365 day returns. Now available in Canada and the UK too. And when Quince asked you where you heard about them, let them know it was pod save the world. It's the best way to support the show. Longplay our docu-series exploring the people and forces shaping the south is back. Newsflash, the south is the new political epicenter of the country. Democrats are way on their heels in this region but Republicans are going through their own reckoning in the south too. We're in the final stretch of the midterms and the political map has only gotten more competitive with new states and districts emerging as potential flips. So we thought it was time to get back out on the road and take a closer look at what's actually happening on the ground. I'm Aaron Haines, journalist and expert on all things Southern politics. And I'm Jennifer Paul Mary, former White House communications director. Tune in on Mondays to Longplay Series on YouTube for wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, joining me now from São Paulo to talk about what it's been like on the ground in Brazil. How Alula managed to achieve this massive turnaround upset victory is my friend Pedro Tellus. He's the program director at DHUB, that's Democracy Hub. An organization that provides support for anti-authoritarian movements around the world. We've heard actually Nika Kovacu runs DHUB on this podcast another friend of mine. But Pedro, welcome to the podcast. Thanks so much for joining us. Thanks for having me. Pleasure. All right Pedro, let's just start with like election night actually. You and I were on a massive WhatsApp thread. I was getting my updates from you and others on the ground in Brazil. Where were you on election night? Where were you when you heard the news at Lula had won? The scenes that we saw on television and online were extraordinary. I mean, what was your experience of that night? I was with a group of NGOs and social movements that were together monitoring the process and ensuring it will go smoothly. As you probably know, it did not go smoothly. There was a change in the voting hours. There was confusion, but in the end, Lula one, and I was very happy about it. Yeah. Well, I want to get into how that's happened. So let's start with the first round of the presidential election on October 4th when Lula came in and second place, pretty far behind Flavio Bolsonaro. What was the mood on that night and how much did you think it was still possible for Lula to win after that first round election result? Well, there was a very tough night for all of us in a tough day after as well because not only Flavio was ahead, the four other main candidates running were all right-wingers. And Pauline was showing us the most voters for those candidates would also move towards Flavio. So it looked like a near-impossible task and for a couple of days, I guess everyone was like, what do we do now? But then Lula spontaneous organic, decentralized organizing started happening and really energized people. And here we are. In the end, it worked out. Yeah, and I'm curious because part of what's interesting about the Brazil result is it's not like in Serbia where we had an uprising against a long-standing corrupt incumbent. Here Lula was the incumbent. How much and we can get into the different pieces of it, but how much of what happened was adjustments that Lula himself made versus how much of this was kind of organic mobilization, like you said, by social movements, by organizers, by young people. What happened when you all shook off the defeat on the first round? Where did the energy come from? Look, there was no silver bullet. There was no magic trick. It really was a collection of effective efforts. And most of them not coming from the campaign. So Lula's campaign is worth highlighting this. It wasn't the most organized and the best structure campaign to begin with. There were some conflict and invites in the campaign to be met. As usually happens, there was not really a consistent strategy that much. And then what happened for the runoff was on the one hand, Lula did change the way he was behaving and his team was behaving. He even changed the campaign leadership for that. I would say that the two main changes were one. Lula really started pushing for a series of policies that he was able to approve during the runoff that had high popular support. So one, Lula approved a change in labor law to end what we call the six by one work week. So in Brazil, labor law would allow people to work up to six days per week. Now it's only five days per week maximum. And he approved this during the runoff. And that reduction came with the assurance that wages would not be reduced. There was a majorly popular support for this. He also secured an increase in the cash transfer program, both a familiar that reaches millions of Brazilians. He also banned batting platforms that had also huge popular support, especially among women. So that was one thing. He was really pushing one thing after the other during the runoff with high popular support. And he at the same time, he invited a group of young newly elected MPs who have this profile of an influencer politicians that are really popular on social media. He had a gathering with them and said, look, it's not over nothing. And I need your support. And I need you. And I know that you know what you're doing that you've got elected like this. And you're amazing at this. And I want to give you my support. Do your magic. So he was on the one hand validating politically the work that those newly elected MPs were doing online asking for their help and giving them freedom to run and to do their magic. So there were some changes in the way that the famous behaving that was important. But in addition to this, there were loads of efforts that did not come from the campaign. They were critical. The most famous one, you may have heard of this by now, is the Lula's army, what's up organizing effort led by a member of parliament, Andres Janonis. Janonis, he's a famous politician for a while now. He also has his profile of being a great content creator and a great digital organizer. So a few days before he ran off, he set up this WhatsApp channel. And I'm not sure how familiar you are in the West with WhatsApp channels. I'm going to pursue the bigger thing. But in WhatsApp channels, you can have millions of people like there's no limit to how many people is a broadcast platform. And what he did was on the day after of the first round, he came and said, look, here is what we're going to be organizing to win the second round. And this guy, he already has his following and he's very charismatic and very energetic. He really behaved as a general. And what he managed to capture was there were millions of Brazilian who were like desperate and wanted to do something. The campaign leadership didn't really have a clear plan or structure to deal with people who wanted to volunteer to deal with decentralized groups. That was a weak spot in the campaign. And Janonis captured the energy of people who wanted to do something. And this channel became a channel with nearly 11 million people by election day. And every day he will be there sending people missions and saying, and today we've got to make this content viral. Today we've got to be inviting people to come to this rally. Today we're going to have a live in Lula come join this live. So that this really became the kind of the biggest case study on WhatsApp organizing. And the strength of WhatsApp organizing is that people are there in groups with their families, their friends. The people you reach on WhatsApp is different from those you're reaching in like algorithm mediated Instagram, for example, right? So that was a critical element. Plus there were loads of decentralized get out of the vote efforts. Very important. Civil society played a key role in pushing for mobilizing elderly people to go vote. And in Brazil, the vote for the elderly people is not mandatory. And we knew for effect that four years here's a goal 50% of this of this group. didn't go vote, 70 plus years of age. That's eight million people in total. So getting out of vote for this, this specific constituency in a couple others or crucial loads of civil society efforts for that. And a critical element that I want to highlight is that of investigative journalism. So one thing that was necessary for Flavio to lose was to convince voters of other candidates not to go vote for Flavio, right? In addition to turning out for Lula, you had to convince in there were a few of a stick with journalists that really managed to day after day, breaking news stories about Flavio's scandals, Flavio's complicated relationships, Flavio's relationship with criminals or criminal activities that kept Flavio on the defensive and that really helped Lula to have space to be able to grow. That's such a great summary. So basically, I mean, just to recap it, you've got this, you know, 80-old legendary progressive political figure who kind of, you know, he goes into the well of progressive policies, banning online gambling, shortening the work week. But he also, this is a man that never had a smartphone in his life. He started listening to different people. He got one. He started doing direct-to-camera videos. Then you have this organic, you know, effort. Lula's army is constructed. People are given something to do. People may have seen that the picture after Lula won of a man in a Brazilian national team jersey, hugging Lula, that's the guy ran Lula's army, right? So you're building this big organic movement that connects young people. I mean, it felt like Lula, who's an older generation politician, kind of whether there was an alliance of convenience or genuine one, there was this connectivity between younger people and this progressive icon. Is that essentially the energy that was unleashed? Yes, that is. And one strength of Lula is that Lula has always respected people who have votes. So historically, if you look and look at Lula's history, he always tried to get us close allies, mayors, governors and peace, who actually showed that they're able to get votes to mobilize voters. And that's why he did again this time. Like he said, you guys, you rocked in the first round and I need you in your strength and your energy to win in this runoff. Well, I think there's a lot of lessons for us to take from this globally. I also want to ask about the other side of this is that we heard a lot from Lula and his allies about meta, which owns WhatsApp, but also Instagram and Facebook, tilting algorithms, tilting their platforms, particularly ones with algorithms like Instagram and Facebook, in the direction of Flavia Bolsonaro. How real was that? I mean, what was happening? What was met as role in this campaign? And did that, what role did that play? That's the biggest story from the selection apart from Lula's win, right? So the first thing that started happening was that loads of content creators who were supporting Lula started reporting that their accounts were being banned or shadow banned or their posts taken down for no clear reason. And there's an organization that I'm actually a board member of a confouter called Control Z that we set up a forum saying, look, we're going to name any reports. Let us know here. Let's formalize this and let us know if you're being banned, suffering with this. In a couple of days, there were more than a thousand reports from people like showing, explaining how their content or accounts were being banned. And once we started organizing this evidence, this became news because meta is pretty good at dismissing cases when it's like individuals, but when you come up with it, you say like, there's here actually a thousand cases. This effort was so successful that Lula's campaign replicated and built its own platform to start collecting evidence. And then Lula starting himself talking about this, but it was more, it was not just this. Lula's campaign was blocked from doing advertising on meta platforms for a food day. If you looked for Lula's name on like Instagram or WhatsApp, you would not find Lula's channel. He wouldn't show up. He was kind of shadow banned in this in this sense. But if you look for Flavios, Flavios would show up. There's evidence that Flavios campaign paid 33 to 40 percent less than Lula's campaign for advertising to reach out of the same audiences. And finally, what really turned this into a global story when the New York Times reported, for example, in the US, was if you go to meta's AI on WhatsApp, you can ask meta's AI to do anything, right on WhatsApp. If you go there, and if you asked meta's AI to create a poster for Lula, he would say, sorry, I cannot do this. But if you ask it to create a poster for Flavios, he would say, yes, he read this and gladly do it. And more than that, if you asked meta's AI to say, like, can you do a poster for my dog? He's running for president. He would do a poster for your dog and he would attach a number to it because in Brazil, in Brazil, we use numbers to vote. And he would attach a number, even if you didn't ask for a number. And that number would be 22, which is Flavios number. So clearly, there was a clear algorithm bias towards Flavios there. Meta claims, of course, and now this is going through, I mean, Lula's campaign started officially go action, this is going to be investigated. Meta claims that there was no active meddling, but even if Meta didn't actively meddle with the systems to favor Flavios, it's very clear that there is an inherent bias towards Flavios and that that impacted Lula's campaign. So that's a big story and we'll continue to investigate and hopefully it's going to lead method to be held accountable. Yeah, no, I think this is really important because we're seeing this kind of exponential rise in power for tech oligarchs like Mark Zuckerberg. And that is a chilling story of how much these platforms that are in our lives can be manipulated. I want to ask just close by asking about the future of the left and the right. Let's start with the right just because there's like news today, obviously, of Flavio Bolsonaro flying the coup and leaving the country. You now have, you know, the elder Yarbroughson, he's in prison for the insurrection that he led after he lost an election. Now you have Flavio leaving the country. What is the future of this far right movement in Brazil? Obviously there's control in Lula to deal with a divided government that's controlled. There's a lot of parliamentary power for the right. Where does the far right go after this loss? Well, the far right right now, even though they lost the presidential race in Congress, they're very strong. So Bolsonaro's party alone has a third of the Senate and a fourth of the lower house. Brazil, different from the US, we have 30 political parties in Brazil. So a single party having a third of a house and a fourth of the other is quite a lot, right? So they're in a very strong position in Congress stronger than ever. I guess what is at stake here is not so much the strength of the far right. Like if we dismiss the far right because of this defeat for the presidency, we're going to make an mistake. They're still strong, just to organize. But I guess the dominance of the Bolsonaro family is now at stake, right? To take stand, they're going to be able to still kind of centralize the far right strategy and space and roles. I guess that's the main question regarding the far right here. We're in the left on the other hand. They did something else because Lula, everyone knows this was Lula's last dance, right? Even I mean, he was elected and that's great for democracy. But it is inevitable that among leftists, now people are going to start fighting for who is going to occupy the vacuum that Lula is going to leave. And it will be a tragedy in my view if this leads to a level of in fight that gets us like fragmented and not able to fight a far right. Let's see how he goes. But that's the challenge for the left now. How do we stay united while people are fighting for Lula space? And do you think that this kind of organic movement to defend democracy that can lead to infighting or are there ways it can lead towards a more constructive building of movements that can revitalize Brazilian democracy after this kind of 80 something year old lion exits the stage? Honestly, we did not do a good job over the last four years, right? So we managed to win again this time. And that's brilliant. But as you can see, the Bolsonaro family and the far right, I mean, they continue to be very strong and very present. My hopes is that for the next four years, we're not going to lower the guards in the same way that we did in the last four years. And I hope that the lessons that we've learned from this tight election and from seeing these guys come back in almost get to power again is going to lead us to really go deeper and have more consistent efforts looking forward. And that's what I'm going to be working for, but I don't think it for granted. I think it's going to be hard work. Yeah. Well, look, Pedro, for the time being, though, I hope you can enjoy this victory because it's just an extraordinary achievement for an incumbent to hold on like this, to buck the momentum in Latin America, where you've seen the shift to the far right. I know that it took a lot of movement building when the election results are close like this, everything mattered, every organizer mattered, every organization mattered. So for the time being, congratulations. and enjoy yourself before you get back to work, as I know you will. Thank you, Ben. And best of luck for your elections there. I know it's coming, and I know it's going to be tough. So yeah, we'll try to keep the momentum going, man. I appreciate it, Pedro. Good to talk to you. Thanks, gonna pay to tell us for joining the show, and we'll talk to you guys next week. The positive world is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Elona Minkowski, Michael Goldsmith, and Munecia Bonnergy. Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Heffko, Jordan Cantor, Kenny Moffitt, David Tolls, and Ryan Young. Our staff is probably unionized with the writers killed of America East. Longplay, our docu-series exploring the people and forces shaping the South is back. Democrats are way on their heels in this region, but Republicans are going through their own reckoning in the South too. We're in the final stretch of the midterms, and the political map has only gotten more competitive with new states and districts emerging as potential flips. So we thought it was time to get back out on the road, and take a closer look at what's actually happening on the ground. I'm Erin Haynes, journalist and expert on all things Southern politics, and I'm Jennifer Palmieri, former White House communications director. Tune in on Mondays to Longplay Series on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.