Data Centers, Housing, and the Hidden Real Estate Play in the AI Boom

This is InvestTalk from KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time. And now, here are Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero. Good afternoon, fellow investors, and welcome back to InvestTalk. This is our Monday, August 10th, 2026 edition of InvestTalk, and we have a special show. We have Luke with me. I know you guys like when we go to it together. We have double trouble, I guess you can call it. I don't want to call us that. We've got to come up with something better. It's too cliched. That is very cliche. Well, let's throw in the robot and see what they give us. We'll do that. We'll figure it out, but nonetheless, we are here to help you become better investors, give you some perspective, some data, answer your investment questions, do that whole thing that we do each and every weekday. And in just a bit, we'll talk about today's marked performance and run down the show topics for the hour. But as usual, we'll tackle this first caller question right now. Hi, Justin and Luke. This is Melissa from Oregon. I love your show. Thank you so much. My question today is if you can give your assessment of the company Medtronic, ticker symbol MDT. Thank you so much, and I'll listen on the show. Take care. Looking at Medtronic, MDT is the symbol. A name that we actually own for clients. Earnings are expected to be up 8% this year, 7% next year. It had a rough kind of start to the year, but bouncing back as of late, it's rallied pretty nicely. And it's a consistent business, a very good business, $115 roughly billion market cap, return on equity right around 10%, good free cash flow, about $5.5 billion. Overall, a good balance sheet. And the dividend yield is about 3.3%. I think they just raised it, if I remember correctly, raised that dividend. So there's a lot to like about the business. Do you have anything to add, Luke? Yeah, I mean, from an earnings perspective, it looks like they had their highest annual revenue growth in 10 years. You mentioned that it has really had a rough start to the year, and it certainly did. It's up 17% over the past three months, though. I think something that's important to note here is that healthcare broadly had had a rough start to the year. Definitely. When you think about this AI trade, money has to come from somewhere. And there was a bit of a rotation out of healthcare into some of those tech-focused names. And so when you're looking at Medtronic and how it performs, you kind of look at it within the context of the industry. And with it still being down 7% this year, it's still outperforming its industry by 1.6% this year, 14% last year. So that, to me, kind of signals it's more of a broader trend. And within the sector, rather than something that is systematic or rather symptomatic of something within the individual company itself. Yeah, that's underappreciated, is that capital is finite. And when investors are chasing a hot sector, that money either comes from off the sidelines, or oftentimes it also comes from other sectors that get hurt in the process. And I think healthcare was certainly one of those because there's a lot of uncertainty with what's going on with RFK and the Health and Human Services and whether or not that's going to change everything that goes on within the healthcare space. So it certainly was an overhang. I think that's a bit behind us in a way. And also money is rotating in this market towards safer names and back out of some of those. Bigger AI plays. So I think that's a recent trend. And you're seeing that in Medtronic stock with the recent rally. Right now, I still think it's very, very undervalued. One of the largest medical device companies in the world. I don't think that's changing anytime soon. And certainly there's a lot of boomers getting older, retiring, and they're going to naturally, as you get older, demand more of their devices. So we like Medtronics. Now let's pivot. And actually, let's talk. What we're going to discuss today. Actually, let's talk about Friday. Friday, we had a great show. I talked about workers dropping out of the labor force. And what was that reason? Kind of what I just said, which was about the boomer generation and the fact that they are getting more and more into retirement. So I talked about that and much more on Friday's show. We looked also at HubSpot. We answered a question about that. If you happen to miss it, go check it out. Yeah, we did answer a question about HubSpot. And no spoilers. If you want to know what I said, the best way to get every show is to follow InvestTalk wherever you get your podcasts. That includes you, Luke. You have to go tune in yourself. I already did listen. Oh, you did? Because I do subscribe to InvestTalk wherever I get my podcasts. There you go. I know you were traveling for a wedding. I was, yeah. Coast to bi-coastal, coast to coast. Seems like every other weekend now I'm going for a wedding. At some point, everyone I know is going to be married. And we'll be moving on to second marriages soon. There you go. And you met your idol. Not my idol. Somebody's idol. The great Sandy Koufax. The left arm of God, they call him. One of 24 perfect games. A great Brooklyn and Los Angeles Dodger through and through. There we go. Yeah. Fun weekend you had back east. But we have about 45 minutes left in the show. So let's get to it, Luke. Our main focus point today is about data centers. Housing and the hidden real estate play in the AI boom. So we're going to look at kind of the second and third order effects of the AI infrastructure build-outs. And mainly around real estate. So we'll discuss that. We also have other topics. One is in regards to the credit markets surrounding the AI play. Is that telling us something about the future path of maybe that industry as a whole? We'll look at that. Also, gold. Gold has broken out. And one of the reasons is actually more foreign buying. It's not just from central banks right now. It's coming from retail investors in one particular country. And we'll talk about that and much, much more. We also have voice bank calls. One is on retirement accounts. It's kind of a broad topic. But we'll hear what that caller has to say. We also have a question on double verify holdings. DV is a symbol. And, of course, questions that came in via the comments section. Of the InvestTalk YouTube channel. But most importantly will be your live calls as we head into a quick break. Please remember you can call anytime and leave your questions on the InvestTalk voice bank. If you happen to be listening during our live stream on our website, InvestTalk.com, or possibly on AM 1220 in the Bay Area, you can call right now at 888-99-CHART. Up next, I'll comment on today's market activity. Total lifetime downloads for the InvestTalk podcast are now more than 63 million. So tell your friends when they have finance and investment questions, don't forget to call InvestTalk, 888-99-CHART. Luke, we had an interesting day in markets to start the week. Overall, though, it was relatively flat. Intel did announce a $15 billion equity offer. Bond yields continue to have upward pressure. You saw the dollar index up 0.1% on the day. Gold finished up 0.5%. Ended above 4,400 an ounce for the first time since early June. Silver up 2.8%. Bitcoin continues to lag the debasement trade by being down 1.8% on the day. But the real story was WTI crude up 5.1% as what looks to be a giant stalemate in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz looks no closer to being open than it has been for the past, I don't know, what are we going on, six months of this war. So what did you make of the market as we started the week, even though the indices didn't move very much? Yeah, honestly, it was a surprise that there wasn't much movement there. I think the big story, the big overhang for a while, they have been continually hawkish updates around the U.S. and Iran war. You have Iran saying that even if they reached a deal with Oman, with regards to the Strait of Hormuz, it would not lead to full reopening. I saw some chatter about Iran saying they don't want to fully resolve the situation until 2029 now when Trump is out of office. And then from the other side, you have the president now demanding compensation. And so, you know, I think that from my perspective, I would expect the market to be down a bit more than it has been, right? It's just off of these highs. But you're still seeing this continued essentially ignoring of geopolitical issues for the most part. Yeah, that's something. I think it's because while oil was up today, it's still at a reasonable number. We're still sub $100 a barrel. Supply chains are still broadly working even though There are issues. It is creating inflation. I talk to people in the goods industry that are trying to produce products in Asia, and their supply chains are throughout Asia, and they are seeing higher costs of resin, higher transportation costs because of diesel, all of this that's feeding into their costs, which will eventually have to feed into the costs at the consumer level. So there is a lag effect here, but I think I am a little bit surprised that this is being ignored by the market as much as it has so far. I think the main reason, though, is because of the earnings picture. It looks like the Q2 earnings for the Russell 3000, so the 3000 largest names, is at 15%. The strongest is 2021. Revenue growth up 8%, the highest since 2023. So the earnings picture looks fine for now. To me, it is all about what's going to happen with AI. Are we still spending at these levels? Can they continue to finance this? And we'll talk a little bit later about their ability to do so. But I think that is a swing factor that the market isn't really discussing quite yet. So we'll see how that prices, if they price that in. Now, let's pivot over. And what are we going to answer? A YouTube comment question. Actually, no, a question that came via web form. It says, UWM Holdings is currently facing financial difficulties and recently cut its dividend. Considering these circumstances, is this a good company? Very interesting wording there. I was going to say, this is a very fascinating way to phrase that. Bad things are happening. They can no longer sustain their dividend. Is it good? Is it a good time to buy it? Well, I mean, you could be a contrarian here and say all the bad news is priced in and therefore you want to pick it up. But the question wasn't, is now a good time to buy? The question is, is this a good company? Oh, that's fair. And I would say for UWMC, I mean, objectively speaking, it's down 67.81% year to date. It's trading now at $1.41. It's volatile enough that it's up 10% today from a return on assets perspective. They're barely positive. Revenue has fallen year over year. So I think that fully separates the two questions of, is it a good company versus is now a good time to buy? One is saying, is this thing successful? The other is more of trying to predict whether or not this could be a bottom. This is actually United Wholesale Mortgages. I've definitely seen some commercials from them. They probably want to stop spending on commercials because it's not working for them. Clearly, this is a company. This is a company that is on the verge of bankruptcy. And you might look at it and say, oh, the dividend yield, Luke, it's 31%. Jeez. But like the question said, or the question was phrased, recently cut its dividend. Did they eliminate their dividend though? I don't think so. Not yet. Not yet. The point here is that whenever you see a company whose debt levels, net debt levels, dwarf the market, that is the market saying this is on the verge of bankruptcy, and especially when it's trading for a dollar and change. And that dividend yield is not going to get paid. So this is almost certainly going to bankruptcy. You could be a contrarian. You'd have to really dig into the details here and figure out what got them into this trouble and how they're going to pull themselves out of it. But 99 times out of 100, when a company gets themselves into this situation, bankruptcy is in the offing. And this. Equity is worth zero. That about does it for our first segment. Our 24-7 InvestTalk voice pick never closes. So you can leave your finance and investment question anytime at 888-99-CHART. And our work continues after this break. 7, rain or shine, there's always value in the InvestTalk podcast. 888-99-CHART. Let's go talk to Dave in Fresno, California, looking at Valero Energy VLO. Do you own it or looking to buy it? Yes, sir. I own a little bit and I'm thinking about buying some more. Okay. Well. First thing you have to understand about all these oil refineries is that their business is very up and down. If you look at the history of Valero, they lost money in 2020, which makes a lot of sense. They made $29.16 in 2022. Then that fell to $8.48 in 2024. Then back up to supposed to make $40 per share this year, but then fall back to $27 and change next year. So you can see it's kind of all over the place. You almost have to smooth the earnings over time. It is. It is up and to the right. That's the positive here. And I've said this before with what's going on in the Middle East. It's pretty clear that the better parts to invest in, I think, over the long term, and this bears down the numbers, is within the energy space, which is midstream companies as well as refining companies. And Valero is one of the largest out there. So the technicals are good. Relative strength is 96. So it's doing well. So I like it long term. But is this? Is this a good time to buy liquid? Do you think you should be patient on it? Yeah. I mean, you're coming off of one of the best quarters for refiners broadly, and specifically this name, in a really long time. I mean, they had $3.7 billion in net income. They had $5.58 billion in operating cash flow. How much cash do they have on hand? It's like a crazy amount, isn't it? No, their net debt's $2 billion. Yeah, their net debt's $2 billion. But they still have $4.7 billion in cash on hand. I mean, it has reached a point where you do worry about the counter-cyclical nature of these types of names. It's not trading at a particularly expensive multiple either. I mean, it's 9.1 times price to forward-looking earnings. But again, are the extrapolated earnings consistent here? When you have the cyclicality of these types of names, you have to realize when you're at a forward-looking multiple, that's a forward-looking earnings estimate, right? And so when that diverges, then it diverges pretty quickly and you can find yourself in a position where you bought this thing and it was a bit overvalued. That's my concern. Yeah, I mean, I think from a long-term perspective, it's usually not best to buy something after it's doubled in, what, a year? But it doesn't mean that there isn't a long-term signal here that it is a good buy because it probably is a good buy at some point. It's just a matter of what's your time frame. Now, short-term, momentum's good. We just talked about the Strait of Moose doesn't look like it's opening anytime soon. There's a stalemate in the Middle East that's probably not ending in the near term, which is a tailwind to diesel prices. And it's a tailwind to crack spreads. That's what they make their money. It's the difference between the price they get at the pump versus the price they're paying for oil. And you see oil prices are not really going up that much, but diesel prices and gasoline prices are. And so that's why Valero. And the refiners are making so much money. So near term, I think it goes higher. But once, let's say, there is a resolution at some point in the Middle East, this will probably roll over and roll over pretty hard. But we are in a time where geopolitics will probably not smooth out anytime soon. And therefore, it'll probably be a better buying opportunity long term. So to me, it depends on your time frame. I like what you're looking at. I would try to find time to add more. But I'd wait for a broader pullback. Unless you're just going for a trade. Or for the next three months. And I think it could still be up over the next three months. Let's keep things moving and pivot back to the Best Stock Voice Bank for another listener question now. Hi, I was calling about Target. I own it. I'm up on it. I just wanted to know if it's worth holding on to or it's time to take profits. And my second question would be, where would I go or where would you recommend to learn how to read the charts? Thank you for your help. I'll be listening on the show. Where would I go to learn how to read the charts? That is, that's a tough one. There's a lot of books. There's our website. Do we still have the book section on our website? I think we do. We used to have it. Try to remember if we took that off or not. Keep talking. I'll look. Okay. But speaking of Target, this is actually a great conversation because Luke and I have been talking about this for a while. I don't think the book section is on our website anymore. Interesting. Email me. I'll email you some recommendations. Let's get to Target. So this is a name that we had bought for clients. When did we buy that, Luke? Back in the fall. About a year ago. About a year ago, roughly? A year ago. And you were arguing for Walmart. I was. You were arguing for Walmart. I was arguing for Walmart. And for the first two, three months, you're right. But pretty much since the fall, November, Target's been on a tear. Bottomed around 80%. Mid-80s. Now it's at 152. So it's almost doubled in a year. And I said back then, it was trading. i think nine times earnings something yeah because earnings this year supposed to be 850 it was trading at 85 so it's around nine ten times earnings i said not a lot has to go right for this name to just do really really well and that's basically what happened because now we're returned to growth four percent revenue growth expected this year 12 earnings then three percent revenue growth next year seven percent earnings uh but the question is now that it's trading at roughly 20 15 times 16 times forward looking earnings is it too expensive now fairly valued what do you think luke yeah i mean you know it is one of those situations where you had a company that was beaten down beaten down beaten down um my issue with target had always been that they hadn't invested as much and had as much realization in online revenue that's something that they have been working on in the past couple quarters and has been a area of growth for them you know they're trading at 17 times price for looking earnings but we still hold it for clients so clearly we like it yeah we still like it not as cheap as it was though it was around 90 when we bought it but uh still a great company 105 105 all right whatever we bought it pretty low anyway our 24-7 voice bank never closes we're ready for your questions now at 888-99-CHART at kpp financial accountability means more than advice it means we invest along side you through our parallel investing approach when we recommend an investment for clients one or more kpp principles invest their own capital at the same time same day same price same percentage if your portfolio moves ours does too that is alignment that is transparency that is the kpp difference visit investtalk.com to get your free portfolio review every investor is working to build a secure financial future how they get there and when they get there that depends on many factors the more you learn about how the market works the better your chances for success so don't forget to call invest talk 888-99-CHART invest talk 888-99-CHART luke data centers are all the rage so let's talk a little bit more about the investment opportunities surrounding the data center infrastructure build out everyone's talking about chips and the ai companies and and memory and uh everything that sounds cool but there's investment opportunities adjacent to the data center infrastructure build out investment opportunities adjacent to all the spending in areas that oftentimes are more boring but more durable and probably not priced as expensive as the chip makers are right now right so let's talk a little bit about what those might be but first let's talk also about the the development because this is something that happens not just in one year it happens over many many years and it will have ramifications for the areas that these data centers are built that these data centers are built on uh you know for many years to come decades even to come so maybe if you want to start off the conversation a little bit how are you thinking about the other opportunities in the space yeah you know i think that when most people think about the ai theme their idea of going towards something that touches it that isn't one of the chip makers or hyperscalers is data centers and that makes that makes sense to me but i think that there are third order effects you need to consider as well for example you know we have data centers don't have many employees we know this they are large construction projects they do take time there needs to be infrastructure for workers in those areas who are constructing those data centers but are then also perhaps going to be in the power plants power generation that are near these data centers and so that means you can't really just stop at database data center reads right there are other areas you should you should focus on as well uh you know residential builders non-residential commercial builders for every one dollar that's invested in a data center roughly 74 cents flows into adjacent construction activity think about that that's there's they're spending uh what approaching a trillion dollars a year yeah so that's still 740 billion going elsewhere right roughly so let's talk about the the process and the phases here so phase one before they ever break ground you have to secure power fiber water utilities need to expand capacity power infrastructure you can still build the shell of the facility you can still put in the electrical infrastructure and partner with the local utility companies so that's why we like the durability of the growth from those nuts and bolts of the business more than the chip companies that tend to go from 80 90 to zero uh overnight especially if capacity expands so it's a very interesting kind of second and third order effects that you have to follow and that's really real opportunities lie let's keep things going and drop in another fresh listener question now hi invest talk i had a question about how to allocate money to a retirement account or accounts my wife and i both have a 401k and i have a 401k and i have a 401k and i with a match, a Roth IRA, and a brokerage account. We've always maxed out our 401ks and Roth IRAs, but my parents are now tackling retirement. And it's made me question where I should put most of my money to avoid tax in the future and also to have more flexibility if I wanted to retire early. I'm sure my wife and I both would. We are higher income earners. So my question is this, should we contribute only to our 401k enough to reach the employer match and with that extra money, put it towards a brokerage account or our brokerage accounts in order to have like that bridge account to get us to retirement and also to avoid RMDs putting us into a higher tax bracket? You know, if we had a higher 401k balance, do you see that a lot with your clients? We're about 30 years old and I just want to put our accounts in the best shape possible so that way we have a smoother transition. And it sounds like my parents are having right now. I mean, I'll listen on the show. I appreciate all your guys' help. Thank you so much. Take care. Bye-bye. Thank you for the call. And you're highlighting a complexity of that retirement planning picture that is difficult to get your head around without the right tools. Something we work with clients on and we have tools for that. But yeah, I do think the taxable brokerage account is underappreciated in the longer term planning from a longer term planning perspective, especially if you're a retiring early. Now, one thing you're retiring early will do is allow you to do Roth conversions, ideally at a low tax rate. So that's a planning mechanism that you should lay out with your advisor. But you're going to need taxable money from the taxable account, for example, to pay for the taxes when you do those conversions. So I like that you're looking to avoid the RMDs, but that can happen in multiple ways and over a long period of time. Yeah. Yeah. I think it's a great question because oftentimes people think about investment diversity and not tax diversity. But like you said, it is an incredibly complex topic. I think if you want to get an actual set of eyes on it, I encourage you to head over to investtalk.com and schedule a free portfolio review. There you go. All right. Let's pivot over to another voicemail question now. Hey, Luke and Justin. Bill from Philadelphia here. I'm calling about ticker symbol DV, double verify, the shareholder with them. And Nielsen has just agreed to take them private at a valuation of $13.60 per share. And it's expected to close first quarter of 2027. This has never happened to me with regards to shares that I hold. So I'm not sure. Do I hold it until then and then I get $13.60 per share automatically? Do I sell it before that transaction happens? I just need to get a little advice on how this works and if I should hold it until they do go private and then I get that money or do I sell beforehand? Thank you very much. I love what you guys do. Well, congratulations. Hopefully you bought this lower. It's $13.60. But basically, it's right at $13.22 now. This is typical for a buyout offer. This is the market saying that's probably going to go through. There's going to be some sort of discount for time value of money, basically, because you could go, you could sell it now, take your $13.22 and now go reinvest that elsewhere. That's probably what I would do. Maybe there's a tax implication as well. Maybe you hold it until it's long-term capital gains. That's a consideration if it's in a taxable account. Anything you would add? No, you're essentially, you have cash exposure now. So if you want to have more cash exposure, you should hold on to this name. But if you want to invest in equities, obviously, taxes matter. The best thing to do is to cash out and move on. There's an opportunity cost holding on to these things. It's true. Luke, let's talk about gold. Gold recently, the last week, broke out to the upside from about 4,000 an ounce to about 4,400 an ounce today. Nice 10%. Rally in a relatively short period of time. After a six-month pullback, we peaked out around 5,400 an ounce. So quite the drop from 54 to 4,000. Now we're back to 4,400. But what's interesting is ETFs, gold-backed ETFs in China saw 14 straight days of inflows through last Monday, which was the longest streak since March and was surely part of the catalyst. So what's interesting is that in the past year, there's been a lot of interest in gold for that breakout in gold. And part of the reasons why money was moved into gold, we talked about this earlier, when money is flowing in or out of a particular sector, it typically goes somewhere. And so the sell-off in Chinese equity markets helped boost inflows to gold. So earlier in the year, the retail investor in China, not much different than the U.S. retail investor, was chasing a lot of the AI names that pushed up. The CSI 300 index. But now money's flowing out. In July, that was down 8%. And so money's moving out of tech and into safer names like gold. So is this the only explanation you think? No, I think there's a lot that goes into it. Certainly, that's one of them. I think if you consider what really drives flows into gold and really anything, this is one of the reasons why. When the pot of money of companies and private investors dried up, all the Bitcoin maxis were pushing for governments to buy it, because that's where the real money is. And similar with gold, right? You have central banks that have for some time been consistently buying gold, diversifying their balance sheets, getting out of U.S. dollars. And that obviously took a bit of a backseat when you had rising geopolitical tensions. I've said it before on the show. And when you think things are going to be scary, you buy gold. When they get scary, you sell gold, because you can't pay your gym membership in gold. Is this a signifier of Chinese inflation expectations easing a bit? They hit a three-month low. Obviously, rates in turn a bit lower. Opportunity costs a bit different for them. Things have been pretty volatile in the Chinese market as well. They still have real estate issues, investors trying to diversify. Certainly, is that what is driving this? Is that what is driving gold higher? Not entirely, but certainly a part of it. Also a part of it is the Bank of Korea resumed physical gold purchases after a 13-year hiatus. That was announced on August 4th as well. Well, they said they were going to. I don't think they actually executed any trades, and they didn't talk about the sizing of it either. So, I mean, that's a bit speculative. I think it's kind of tough to quantify what these banks actually do until quarterly reports come in. Where it shows how their balance sheets moved. But again, markets move on speculation. Well, and also, prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange are now at a premium to the global benchmark in London. So, it just shows you in Asia, there's a lot of demand for gold. The good news is, Senamil is pretty washed out just up until a couple weeks ago. And now, we're getting back on its high horse. So, we're not at panic buying yet. But that's when I think you have to be worried. But I think there's still. There's still some more room to run to the upside for gold. But pretty interesting to see Asia get back on their buying spree. Now, next and best talk. Are AI stocks disrupting SaaS in 2026? The great SaaS-cop? SaaS-pocalypse, excuse me. SaaS-pocalypse. There we go. That's the debate we're going to talk about tomorrow. But for now, the phone lines are open at 888-99-CHART. Blame the Invisalign. Got a question for Justin or Luke? You're the best person to ask it. I wanted to pick your brain about Apple. What did you think about their earnings call? Is this a good time to add to my position? Call InvestTalk. 888-99-CHART. There are a few things that make KPP Financial special. One of them is parallel investing. This means they invest. right alongside their clients. Here's how it works. When KPP Financial makes a trade for their clients, Justin Klein makes the same trade for himself and KPP. On the same day, at the same price, and same percentage. No front running, no special treatment. Learn more about parallel investing at InvestTalk.com. Hi, this is Connor. I'm nine years old and I'm from Painted Post, New York. I'm curious which one I should get more or which one I should get. Roblox or Dell computers? I really like enjoying Dell computers. So that's why I said that. Bye. Have a good rest of your day. Oh, this is my favorite call I've ever had. I think very refreshing, very refreshing. Well, thank you for the call and thank you for having such an interest in investing at such a young age. That's awesome. You're looking at two companies that a lot of nine-year-olds use roblox and dell computers so i'm assuming that's why he's looking at these two sometimes at the same time sometimes very very very often at the same time um but this is a good lesson for him in quality of the business just because you use both doesn't mean that both are great businesses sometimes one is burning capital and a poor performer long term and the other is the exact opposite and that's the case here where uh roblox it just doesn't make money it's never really made money and it has a lot of interest but it doesn't have a very good business model whereas dell it's more expensive if you look at it from a you know multiple perspective but at least its return on capital is 29 very positive uh it has a great balance sheet so i would much rather own dell than roblox what about you yeah i would as well um i think momentum is also telling you a lot for both of you i think it's a great balance sheet for both of you i think it's a great balance sheet these things right uh it comes down to it one of them is a money maker one of them is a money loser and oftentimes finding the products you use you like is a great way to start to think about what types of companies you should also be investing in but it's that second step that you need to take before you realize is it a product that you like or is it a company that is good yeah it is it's a great starting place but it's not where you end too many people just start with i like this product i like this company and they end their search and their analysis there over the last five years the return on roblox shares negative 15 that's not good what was it for dell let me pull up dell real quick before it's gonna be big it's gonna be much better i'll tell you that much it's gonna be very good trailing five year returns 39.6 there we go there we go so definitely go with dell lastly let's talk about the potential red flag in the tech industry and that is the credit markets credit markets are starting to price in more risk for the hyperscalers very similar to what happened with the railroads right before the panic of 1873 so is this telling us something luke that that the the risks that these hyperscalers are taking to build out such such large amount of money is unlikely to pay off you know i i think that oftentimes and i've i've i've brought this up on the show before and explained credit default swaps and all these things and spreads and more often than not the bond market gets things right before the equity markets do yeah the reason being is because you know you're you need a company to make revenue now in order to pay your interest today well and they're less liquid right if you want and they're far less liquid yeah um but i think that's a good point i think that's a good point i think that's a good point i think but you know i think more than anything what spreads are showing and what uh credit default swaps are showing is it's becoming a bit more risky does that mean that you know the the risk of default is meaningfully higher no what it did what it does mean though is that these companies are going to continue to pay or be forced to pay higher yields on their issuances which means that's another thing that's going to weigh down on margins in the future and i think it's another reason why long-term credit defaults are showing and what credit default swaps are showing is that long-term bonds even treasuries 10 year 30 are going up because they're competing for that type of capital that wants to commit long term um so i think they're putting kind of stress on the long end of the curve in general um but luke is there an inverse correlation i remember you talking about this inverse correlation between capex spend and equity returns uh we'll have to get into that on another show i guess so we ran out of time cliffhanger gotta love the cliffhanger it's either yes or no i'll tell you another time what a revelation 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