CutTheClutter: How West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala & Assam election results will redefine Indian politics

This episode of Cartacletor with R-Punitika Redditor, DK Singh joining me, this comes on a day of a particularly clutter-free set of election results from four states and one union territory. The three states run by non-BJP incumbents have thrown them out and they have new governments. The one state run by the BJP Assam has returned its incumbent and as a fiduciary which has a BJP ally in power in fact he is one a mandate for the fifth time running which is a record. I know I started out calling these results clutter-free which they are, they however have many insights, they throw many insights in some many unique features. I will just list a few and then have DK baying on them one after the other. Number one look at the map of India. Today the BJP, the BJP has always had the ambition of ruling all of India's border states because they linked that to their commitment to national security. As things stand BJP now rules, BJP or its allies rule all the border states in India after winning West Bengal, they rule all the major border states in India, Bari Punjab and Himachal Pradesh. And I can guarantee to you they will start their campaign for Punjab soon enough. So Bhagavan Singh, Man, government and Amar the party had better watch out. Number two this shows the organizational prowess of the BJP and the strength of the BJP and the resources. BJP now is the BJP machinery is a Jagannod. It is very tough for anybody to stand in its way. Number three this now shows you because so many regional parties have declined and others look to be in decline. This now tells you that going ahead this will become much more of a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress party and you know what is the Congress party's track record there. In any case from now until the general elections in 2029 in the states, Baring Uttar Pradesh almost all other states will see BJP versus Congress contest. Whether it is Gujarat, Karnataka or some extent Punjab because Punjab also has Amar the party. Then Chattis, Karpati Pradesh, Rajasthan, Manipur in all of these it will be BJP versus the Congress party. Then of all the elections we have seen as yet in this one election commission has become a bigger factor than any we have seen so far. It has not just been controversial, I would say it has been quite partisan. Arrogant has not covered itself with glory but this time it has been quite controversial and has not covered itself in glory. Particularly in West Bengal given the fact of the 90 plus lakhs taken off the electoral roles in West Bengal there was no controversy over about 60 plus. But 27 that got left out and they were left hanging that you are not out yet. Your cases are still open, you can appeal but in this election you cannot vote. That and the extent to which the commission took over the administration in the state these will be issues of debate for a very long time and we will also have DK talk about this. DK what are your main takeaways from this? As you said organizational machinery, look at the way they have micro managed this election you are just talking about SIR. Of course full details have not come counting is still in progress in many constituency but West Bengal will see. Now when we talk about 27 lakhs the number of constituencies where there are massive relations of votes or exclusion of votes we will be talking about 27 lakhs. How it has played out we have to see because say for instance in West Bengal this three minority dominated districts like Mosheda Vadmala and Nardinaj Bo. Their TMC has lost heavily out of 40 odd seats. TMC had 135 last time it is down to 20 or less. So we will be analyzing those details how it has played out of course. Other opposition parties have also played a big role here. So if you look at West Bengal election and you look at the seats where the Congress or the left or some Muslim parties have one or are leading. You see all those candidates the mostly Muslims. So when you look at Huma Yukkha Veer, even after he was thoroughly discreeted in that video where he is properly talking about his deal with the BJP. I mean everybody thought he would be losing but Huma Yukkha Veer has won from both seats he contested and his candidate was instrumental in defeating the three normal congress another seat. You look at the two seats the Congress was leading both are Muslim candidates. ISF has survived. You look at the CPM seat. ISF is that for a share? Yes. In the secluded front. Look at the CPM candidates they are all Muslims. So when you see all these Muslim candidates actually winning those seats you know who it might have affected. Or taking away the votes. Yes. So there is a massive change how much of that was because of Asair or those exclusion of voters and how much because of the left congress and other parties what you may call probably a bit of resurgence in my attitude of the media. Now that has affected Nampada Mahindri that those details will be available later. But when you talk about organizationally the way they have managed it is not just about that look at SM. The way Humantha Sharma has managed after 2020 you see BodoLand territorial council election when UPPL came up as a very important party. The BJP dumped the BodoLand peoples from BPF and went with the UPPL in 21 SMD election. So that's United peoples party liberal. Now in 21 the BJP dumped the BPF, goes with the UPPL and BPF goes to that opposition congress led Mahajob. Months before the next I'm this assembly election in last September BPF wins that BodoLand territorial council election and Humantha Vishwasana brings the BPF back into the NDA fold. So they got UPPL as well as BPF. But this time in this election UPPL because UPPL was a loser in the BTC election what Humantha Sharma did in the BodoLand territorial region you have 15 seats. Get 11 to BPF and took four for the BJP and that's all UPPL was not given any seats because it had to be spent force. From the BJP's point of view. BodoLand has an autonomous district council which holds its own election. So see how they have managed this alliance picking up the right alliance part of the right time. So is this engineering or is this investment? Both in fact engineering in the immediate context investment in the sense that BJP keeps growing in those areas at the cost of these allies sooner than later. So that's investment too. Yeah for example in Assam initially when the BJP grew they took leadership their entire leadership almost from HG. And then HGP became their partner instead of arrival and now HGP is actually a hangar on. And look how they have used the HGP. Now they gave BJP gave 26 seats to HGP out of which 13 seats on 13 seats the HGP filled that Muslim candidates at the behest of the BJP. Now HGP has ended up with 10 seats good for them. But then in the process with the BJP use the HGP to further marginalize the Congress. Now again talking about their strategy we are talking about delimitation exercise. Supposed to be a nonpartisan and objective which is not really the case we know. In Assam to 2023 delimitation exercise minority dormitory costuances shrunk from 35 to 23. Now if you look at where the Congress has won this time out of 19 seats which the Congress has won or is leading on almost 1516 are from these minorities dormitory costuances. That tells you how Hemantabhisattva Sarmaya has actually confined the Congress into that minority costuances beyond that they have nothing. So you know Congress experimented with social engineering the three gogo is coming together ruling the ahum community going for tea garden workers. But at the end of it the Congress was confined to minority dormitory. So that is an example of the where the BJP machine works. But look at the where the machine worked in West Bengal for example. And in this case the agency has got involved. IPEC was rated. It was pretty much shut down its operations. And a lot happened. So how does that machine work? And you saw you you traveled in West Bengal a lot more than I did. I just went to part of not Bengal. But you saw how the top leaders were there and how much time and energy they were putting in. Because that is perfectly legitimate. And they have micro management. So you we saw this entire what people were laughing about was you know BJP leaders having fish or claiming that you know I have just had fish or I have just had meat and I am non vegetarian. You do not hear any top leaders saying that Prime Minister Modi did not say that. But then you had many employees in other interesting that because the The Trenamul Congress was actually trying to actually box them as an outsider which had actually hurt the BJP in the last election, the way the BJP learnt its lessons from last election. This time you did in the last, in the last, in the 2019 election if you remember, 21 also that did you did the slogan given by the Prime Minister Modi and the way it was used, you know she is being ridiculed. This time the district instructions that Mammatha Banerjee as an individual leader will not be attacked. It has to be her governance model, be it Katmani or you know systemic corruption or lack of governance. So, Katmani is a very big all phenomenon which is which goes back to the era of the left also. So, for every contract or every every small thing even if you want to build one more room in your house or carry out major repairs you give a cut to the local some Chhoto masjid, is it not? Yeah. There is a name for it in Kolkata also. Since they call syndicate also. So, syndicate also yeah. So, so that continued and that led to a lot of resentment and the BJP worked on it. That is that is there for sure. Also also the number of central ministers who were camping there for a very long time. Many of them Amitsthsah actually was there continuously for about 15, 20 days. He went to Amrada to vote during local local polls but he came back the very same evening. He was camping there for almost three weeks. You had boop in the other station there for several months. He traveled in most of the constituencies. You had Dharmendra Pradhan. You had senior leaders like Sunil Bansal. All these leaders, then you talk about Anurag Thakur, Nishikarn Dube. Almost everybody was there. Smithi Arani again. She was used as a Bengali speaker. She was a very good campaigner. So, very good campaigner because the BJP was trying to again. She is a natural Bengali speaker. Her mother was a Bengali speaker. So, she being used. So, if you, when I went to say their war room or to meet the BJP leaders, meet the BJP leaders. You would see every count how many national, how many meetings national leaders, that is non-Bengali speakers address and how many meetings were address by local leaders. So, last Saturday when I was there, the list said 140 meetings address by national leaders and 153 by local leaders, Bengali speaking leaders was killing. So, they have worked down to this level. Categorizing their constituencies like A category, B category where they need to work more where they can actually focus more and put their entire resources into all these things were worked out. So, and you would see like in the days, in the run up to the elections in fact, just two days before the polling, you would see many ED rates on several emellaries, they are not going to semilays. When I was there, I was there for just a couple of days and the three emellaries were related during that period. So, in term machinery was out there. So, while we talk about this, I will also keep listing some other very interesting highlights. For example, look at BJ's victory in Tamil Nadu. Joseph Vijay, obviously, unapologetically a Christian and a member of the minorities. I don't remember another instance of a leader from a minority community, Muslim Christian, even Buddhist, any minority community coming out and winning an election all by himself without having the support of a major party, without being fielded by a major party. I am not talking about Jumun Kashmir, I am talking about states in which the leader is an obvious minority. So, to that extent, it is also a compliment to the Indian electorate. In this case, Tamil Nadu is electorate who did not see Vijay as a Christian because they have been polarizing attacks over Christians and proselytization in the south as well. But people didn't bother, they voted for Vijay. Do you think there is something significant there? Do you think people of Tamil Nadu are telling us something? Yeah, first of all, it came as a surprise to us, but not to Prasant Gehsoh. I was listening to his interview given in May 2025, where he was very assertive that later the results come, TVK will win, a Vijay will win. Not like he will be a significant player or a king maker, he is going to form the government. He was so assertive. Prasant Gehsoh could see that in May last year. Anyway, now if you look at his, nobody has any idea about his political ideology. So when he released his manifesto, he said, "On this administration is my ideology." Well, religion is my profession. I don't know, sounds like I'm an apothecary. And then all the freebies and doles, again, 2500 rupees to women, you have doles for unemployed youth, known waiver. So he did not bring anything new to the people. He was so familiar and yet the way the people voted, if you look at the DVK's votes share, it's coming to about 35-36 percent last I saw. So DMK, you see the DMK losing by 14 percent is point. Its votes share has come down from 38 percent to 38 percent to 24 percent. That is quite something. And Indian politics it rarely happens. And for AI, DMK also from 33 percent to 21 percent. So that tells us how, how exacerbated probably how the kind of fatigue people had with all the Dravidian parties. They have been there since 1967, when the DMK came to power first. 60 years. For over 60 years. And their identity politics, regionalism, this not versus South narrative all the time, this language debate. The anything but governance governance was being talked about. And I think that's where that fatigue sat in. And people started looking at a new face, even if he was not bringing something. Of course the youth, a big chunk of the youth voted for him. But it was not just about his star appeal. Because when we look at 14 percent going from the DMK, 13 percent going from the AI, DMK, we are looking at his appeal across basically age groups. And that was not just for Vijay as a star, that was a vote against these Dravidian measures. And also the fact is that while on the one hand Tamil Nadu has had remarkable industrial growth, lots of big units have come up, lots of people have come into bulk from outside also. So economic growth and industrialization also means you become more cosmopolitan. Also more Tamil are going out. English has spoken a lot more than many of the Hindi states. And many have learnt Hindi as well. So the same language resentment is not there as was the case earlier. So that plan you think became a bit weaker this time. The Tamil culture, Tamil language plan. That's what Vijay has arranged. So actually Vijay never talked about it so vocally. I mean of course he would talk about delimitation and a few other issues that the DMK took up. But that was never his central plan. Vijay hardly spoke. So we were always watching him to understand his politics, his ideology, we were never sure. And that's why the other day we were discussing in one of the CTC episodes. How after MGR, none of the actors actually could make it. Yes. Suddenly we have him here. Tamil Hasan, Rajni Khan sort of got called Vijay Khan. Vijay Khan. Yes. Sorry. Rajni Khan sort of got cold feet. Vijay Khan, the captain. No, not Vijay Khan, yes. Suddenly you see a new phenomenon. But that's probably also because the timing was right. You know it's the same striking when the iron is hot business because by this time they was fatigued. People had seen this cycle of these two parties and there wasn't that much to distinguish one from the other because both had the same formula. They had drugged ideology and they also had velfarism. The same formula and fixed rates for this and that. And that's why you saw the BGP, sorry, the DMK not talking about Vijay at all. So when Tamil Nadu chief minister reached out to us that fine we cannot meet you because of the campaign, please have an email interview. I sent him a question which had many Vijay related questions. He skipped them all. But not a single answer about Vijay because the idea was to just keep him out of the electoral discourse, keep it between the DMK and not even the AI DMK, between the DMK and the BGP, right. We should work for their north south in the, right. But people had made it different choice. There's one more thing that I think this election has told us. In this election voters have told us that they're also getting tired of dynastic parties. I'm not saying that the BGP does not have sons, daughters and children in law of established leaders that is there, but Vijay P is not owned by any dynasty either centrally or in any of the states. And when people see the Karnanthi family for example, Stalin was already anointing his son, his sisters there, other members of the family are around. Mamtha also with their nephew. So it does seem like at this point voters are also telling us that they are tired of this. In some of that you can safely presume also that the water is not water. reflects in the indifference in the increasing indifference that the voters have to the Congress party. So, decay do you think the the era of dynastic politics or smaller parties with one family owning the party those ones are now going extinct? Cannot say say to certainty because we have to see what happens to Akelechiyatham. We saw what happened Trejezey or the Vindbihar but Akelechiyatham is there and he gained ground in the in the Lok Sabha election. It's also a fact it's not just about you being a dynast it's about what kind of politics you play. See if they see your grandfather see you playing the same politics that your grandfather was playing your father was playing then that catches up people people lose interest in you because you are selling the same commodity over and over again without giving anything return to the people. It it do not work with a smart dynast for instance look at Chandrava Unairo's son not a location. Take Savi somebody who is out there in the field he did his Padiyatara 1000 so Kulaibarasa Padiyatara and he's capable of doing a lot of things he's hands on his running his politics he's running his governance with such dynast probably you don't really see that. And comes across his modern. So, he's so people actually still repose faith in them somebody like say a a Knot in their son Sri Kanto has been very active in parliament. So, it's it do not work across the board see a Pema Khandu in our notchal he's another dynast but he has been winning elections. It's about how you deliver but if you become that you know if that type cast of a dynast where you love going abroad and having junkets you know actually like a CEO you you delegate all your responsibility to your party you are just having fun and power. People see that and that's where the regentment starts. So, that brings us to election commission. I said what I said what do you think was the election commission's role in best being called particularly. As I said it's a big big setback for the election commission in a way that you know people will always be suspect even if it's BJP's victory and we have discussed how the BJP micro managed and plotted the fall of Mammotha Banjaj and how it's an election Jaganot but this will always remain a kind of number. Although the numbers now show us that even without this 27 lakhs being taken out BJP would probably have won. That once we have got you all the results are truly will analyze the extent of the victory. But this entire thing I mean his the entire victory has been spoiled by this feeling that probably 27 lakh voters work kind of manipulated into disinfinitialism and that's how probably Mammotha could have lost. It was probably not needed but we'll see once we analyze the regents. And finally finally looking ahead it's now looking like Congress versus the BJP right up to 2029. That's true because the Congress is a strike rate against BJP has been very dismal. Yeah it's been I think if it goes to 15% it's a big improvement right. Even in bipolar contest in Assam we were talking about look the Congress's vote say has not gone down Congress vote say is still around 29%. I just got in 2021 also but just that it has got confined to certain constituencies. Interestingly today was you know you would expect the Congress to go over the top they have one another state that will be the fourth state in the equity but you saw a few tweets by Rahul Gandhi in Paryngagandhi Jaram Ramesh was supposed to address a press conference in the evening they decide to cancel it because that's mood is missing that mood of celebration because they know what has happened to them in Assam West Bengal everywhere West Bengal also you went after Mammotha Bayaji you have ended up with virtually nothing just a couple of things. And Tamil Nadu and Tamil Nadu of course they are most important ally has got wiped out. And in Tamil Nadu when we saw a Congress initially going to meet Vijay before elections we were just wondering if it was Rahul Gandhi's behest but now we realize that it was well planned Congress was actually not really comfortable going with the DMK just that they had no other option because today Rahul Gandhi called up Vijay to congratulate him. Vijay we see his name is a few seats the TV case tell is around 107 to get a majority you need 11 more I mean 118 Congress has five there many smaller parties in both alliances both the DMK and the IAM which will come together but Congress has been the first to basically offer it. Yes to say that we have to reach out to Vijay. And finally by this total decline of the left and is it terminal? It looks like terminal we saw what happened in the West Bengal after 2011 they never came back. In fact I was in Kolkata and Ahmed Mohan Salli also they had done a lot of data analysis you know both wise analysis of what went wrong in all these elections in the last three elections how to go about it they had apparently had many meetings in villages about 70 thousand meetings had the same in villages nothing has worked out because look at their votes share votes share remains the same just around 4% nothing had changed for the Congress nothing had changed for the left again go look at 3 put off once they got out of power they lost the next election also so what will happen in the Kerala now that left is out BJP might not have gained much BJP as one just three seats with the almost same votes around 11% so but then once the L.D.F is out BJP has a big opportunity to actually walk into it and take the left face in Kerala. So if I may say this in conclusion that the problem with the left is that as we have seen in West Bengal and before that in Tripura once the B once the left loses power the cadres the voters do not stay with it they defect to the BJP or in the case of West Bengal also partly to TMC there is no ideological commitment among their voters and at the same time the ideological commitment among their leaders particularly Delhi based leaders is actually so strong and so constricting that the left parties are not able to be fleet footed as they need to be in today's environment. I mean today's comrades are as Bojo as the Congress could be at one point of time I'm saying they should look at the Congress as a Bojo party they are no less.