Crypto, Stocks, and Liquidity: The Truth They Won't Tell You | Drinks With Raoul Pal - September 3, 2026

I Bet you fucking missed me welcome to the greatest show in the history of the internet drinks with Raoul Cheers I've missed this it's always good fun looking at myself and a camera on a computer screen and Getting shit-faced. It's the slightly weirdest experience in the world, but there we go. You're all with me with it Hopefully you've got a drink We will be addressing your philistine behavior yet again. I've been educating you trying to educate you and I fail I just don't know what to do with you lot, but we're gonna try so well I'm enjoying a nice glass of a Napa Valley method traditional Rosé sort of champagne ish vintage 2022 but Schramsberg we've had Schramsberg on the show before fantastic stuff really really excellent Sparkling wine here from Napa Valley, and that's where I'm today in the stunning Napa Valley come to sunny, California They said the Sun always shines in California I've got a fucking open fire going and it's been cloudy in fog and in rain for the last five days So they lied to me about that as well so Napa Valley Obviously what Americans think is the home of great wine How I think of it is probably the home of the world's most overpriced wine Created for people with no taste by people with too much money. That's generally Napa Valley in a nutshell But it is absolutely gorgeous and I know one of our RV IP members at real vision has the state here in Napa Valley. So obviously your wines amazing the rest is swill And it's fucking sweet as well. There's so much alcohol in it. I don't know how they do it. It's like port It's just Fifteen percent alcohol in the red wine why? Anyway, that's part of the story. So before we get going I need to Have a I guess I'm not very good at these sponsorship readouts, but the sponsorship readout from our partner is My book the everything code is now on pre-order by the fucking book. Thank you. Anyway back to the programming um, okay, so Napa Valley Napa Valley is probably one of the most civilized places in America If you put your fingers in your ears don't listen to anybody it could be Spain You've actually got a great selection of food and wine here. Even the fucking supermarket is epic And it's a local little supermarket nothing fancy, but it's kind of got them all the boutique foods all of that kind of stuff I haven't got a lot of boutique foods with me today. I've got some special food So one of the things I love doing is cooking And blondie and I you know, we'll make breakfast and you know, I will often do Find some great sourdough bread slice it toast it drizzle some extra virgin olive oil some Maldon sea salt slice some really fresh of those kind of heritage tomatoes And then drizzle a bit more olive oil maybe sort of sprinkle of oregano Maybe some basil leaves over the top crunchy delicious soft sweet of the tomato and when blondie makes breakfast She brings Captain fucking crunch Captain crunches crunch berries Yeah, I don't know what to say either this fucker these people have me exasperated So when we look at the ingredients of Captain Crunch We look at why Americans are the 47th longest-living people in the world yet are the richest So here we go corn flour sugar and Oh flower that's rule coconut oil palm oil salt molasses Do you get the thing this sugar thing Americans put fucking sugar in everything they put sugar in salts. Well, they do place you in everything and just to sweeten it up sodium citrate red 40 malic acid and then there's a list of like 50 different color in its Thymine monotritate blah blah blah blah blah blah That's nutrition. Isn't that lovely doesn't it make you feel special in the morning and it comes in all of those colors, too The other thing that we look at is, you know, I am from the civilized continent of Europe where we do things slightly differently and so I've talked about this before Spain makes the best potato chips or crisps or In the world this is one you can buy in the US You can buy on Amazon Jose Andres. I think I've featured on the show also can do these the entire list of ingredients is potatoes extra-virgin olive oil and salt Not too thick like the fucking kettle crisps which are revolting it'll give you a heart attack and not like processed oils like Lays, this is just a whole different game. You've got the potato in us the clean salt and the olive oil just gives it a richness so That's my version of that crunch. You need to have a crunch when you're having a drink. You need something a bit crunchier the eaten packet The eaten packet of Snack factory pretzel crisps Buffalo wing deli style rethink your pretzel baked bold and spicy So I thought I'd check out a pretzel because the pretzel should be just sort of flour and water and maybe very yeast or something So let's have a look what this one has so enriched flour wheat flour niacin blah blah blah thymine mono trade robe ribofloin Flavin can't even pronounce it folic acid sugar It's a salty snack. It's got fucking sugar and what's wrong with you people? soybean oil salt tapioca malt syrup and The fuck is that? malt extract whey Monosodium glutamate sodium something something cam pepper. Oh, there's a natural ingredient Dextrose modified cornstarch Modified one and how many starches do you need in one fucking thing? citric acid dye sodium inocinate disodium Gwyantate paprika extract Canola oil again and soda Potato olive oil salt I'm guessing 33 ingredients This is why you die young stop doing it. They're like Brian Johnson now. Like I'm like, I'm great Like here's me with a glass of fucking champagne vaping away, right? I've not a baby yet And managed to stop that yeah, I'm 58 years old I'm still vaping what's the matter with me? Although my mother gave up smoking when she was like 70 something Actually when she came to Cayman over kovat, she's now 80 - and she stopped vaping last year So there's hope for me. Yeah, she's strong as an ox northern Dutch amazing The other thing I've got is mine I've got a couple of other crunchy snacks to go with my Schramsberg We're gonna go into a white wine shortly as well before we get into all the other stuff. I've got a very special guest coming That I think you're gonna love I love I really love him. It's like probably the best guest I think in the world So I'm really excited to have that and then we've got Yeah, we got more wine and then charts and Alpha because I know you guys come actually you come for the charts, but stay for the insults and You deserve a lot of fucking insults that much I can say so the next snack I've got is the only thing I can thank Mexico for apart from Just this is a tequila tequila pretty decent. But these aren't these and I get them in Spain a lot as well. These are these large Cornuts that are fried. It's a very unhealthy But unlike all Mexican food Mexican food is basically Slob wrapped in a soft slop wrap and it's it's literally the least textured food on earth It's baby food for adults at scale. And so it's the only thing that's crunchy Are Tacos which then people cover with sort of vomit and call them nachos and then it comes soggy Anyway, or these and these as you know, I like a bit of crunch Well-class crunch you need that you got soft wine your palate salty crunchy snack works perfectly Cheers, so what have you guys got? You guys drinking beer or wine? Okay bus balls That's why we are today is that it's a buzz balls kind of day I Remember when I did the buzz balls tasting that stuff is fucking toxic. What's wrong with you people? It really is some of the worst thing I've ever had and I will have it again Obviously because it's a lot of fun because it's so bad. I finally my other little snack here today I did I've got a selection of cheeses as well, but I'm not that hungry But corner songs Fantastic. These are so good. I think I've had them again on the show as well. So these are the French ones may and they are What's great is you've got oil from the crisps and and the corn nuts, or whatever you call them. I don't know the Spanish name for them. And these give it that vinegary cleanness that cleanses your palate. Very typical in Spain, France, Italy, to have that kind of balance of flavors. Balances your palates out. That's really good. I said it before. I think I did it at Blondie's house in Texas, Schramsburg. It's great. So we're going to go. I did a wine tour. I put a picture up on X to a vineyard called Ovid. And why I wanted to go to Ovid is because it's not, I went to one of the big commercial ones as well. And it's like, yeah, just put sugar in a bunch of grapes, get the alcohol to 15%, ship it out the door, and charge 100 fucking bucks for it. It's just not good. I know that's really, people don't like that. Although I did go to the French Laundry last Sunday and had a 19. 73 Imperial Grand Reserva Rioja. Um, that was fucking amazing. My heart bleeds for that stuff. That stuff is like, well, for me, the greatest wine in the world. It's immortal. You can't kill it. It just lives forever. And it ends up tasting of silken strawberries. Um, and it was still structured and elegant and lovely. Um, and it's five years younger than me. So 53 years old, bloody amazing. But I went to one of the other. Uh, big winemakers. I won't mention them because, um, of connection to them, um, through random little Cayman. But over it is this small, beautiful one with this, um, amazing kind of design aesthetic, half barn, half contemporary architecture using old techniques like concrete new techniques like steel. It's just really clever. It's a beautiful place, small, but really high end wines. And. But when we sat down, they said, you can meet trial white wine. We're like really white one from here. Cause the Chardonnay from here tastes like oil, fucking pineapples, awful stuff. Cause it's the weather's too hot. It needs to go to Russian river or Oregon where it cools down a bit and to get more structure to the white one. If it's not, it's just a mouthful of sugary syrup. But this was quite interesting. I've never tried this before. So it's from Ovid it's called W11 spot four. It's one of their experimental wines every year. They do a different experiment, which they label. This is their 11th white from 2024. Now this has got more grapes than I can probably, well, I didn't know half of these grapes, 28.3% Ribeye Gaia, 20% spinning Blanc, 18% Albarino, as you know, Albarino, my heart, my heart goes out. Bluff says when I hear Albarino, Vormantina, Grenache Blanc, Sauvignon Blanc, Roussanne, Vignon, Pic-Paul Blanc, don't know half of those wines. So they gave it to me and I'm like, Oh God, it's going to be a 15% white wine. And it's not, it's 13%, 13 and a half percent. And it's really kind of elegant and it's, I don't know if you can even find it. I'm sure you can't, it's such a small vineyard and so boutique and probably it's very expensive. I can't remember cause I was actually shit faced when I left, I had the red wine as well. And red wine for me, I think I told you before, now it gives me migraines. So I have to go, I have to take allergy tablets beforehand and kind of fortify myself, milk thistle, anything to stop myself getting a migraine. Um, and he said, I got shit faced and I didn't have a migraine. So the wine was obviously very good, but this is great. It's kind of got a bit of the Sauvignon Blanc smells with it, but it also smells like, um, um, so the wines of Rueda in Spain or it's different and it's really clean and fresh. It's fucking great. Well, well done Ovid. This is a really good American white wine, really different as well. I can't really describe it, but it's fresh. It's clean. It's lovely. And they didn't give me that. I had to pay for it. I left with a multiple grand bill. I haven't bought red wine. I've got so much red wine at home. I can't drink. I can't drink it because it gives me migraines unless it gets really old. So I'm just storing most of mine, a few hundred bottles left. So had about 800, I've drunk as many as I can and then half of them get ruined as well. But the time you ship them through England or France to Cayman, no, to Spain and then to Cayman, um, yeah, some of them didn't do very well. So I'm going to bring on, cause you're probably bored of me by now and my next guest, well, my special guest. I think is the answer to that because I honestly think is probably the smartest person I've ever met. Certainly the most interesting. So let's bring on the guest. The guest is me. So I am launching, I have launched a AI version of me, which is trained on 35 years of kind of my macro thinking. It's got every interview I've ever done on real vision. All of the presentation I've ever done. It's got everything I've ever written on real vision in real vision pro. It's got my ex feed. It's got wine stuff. It's got all sorts of stuff in that and it's really fucking cool and it's free to use for everybody. Raoulpal.ai. And I think we're going to chat with Raoul because he is literally the most interesting person I've ever met. And I think blondie would say probably make, well, no, she didn't actually say, um, but let's, let's, let's call up Raoul and ask him a few questions. Okay. If you want some help thinking through what's going on in the markets and the economy, just tell me what's on your mind and I'll give you my read through the everything code framework. If it's anything to do with your portfolio real time, then this goes to the real vision brain on real vision itself. Raoul, what do you think of Napa Valley wines and do you think Americans just have unsophisticated palates? Look, Napa makes some of the most expensive, sweetest, highest alcohol fruit bombs on the planet and they're made for the mass market. There are a handful of genuinely elegant exceptions, Opus One among them, but as a category, it's overpriced sugar with a marketing budget behind it. For Americans having unsophisticated palates, that's not really how I'd frame it. People everywhere. They're sold and what tastes good to them. The issue isn't the palette. It's the marketing and what gets pushed. My honest advice if you find yourself in Napa is to walk into any wine shop there, buy something European instead. We'll get far more elegance for half the money. And if you want the full Napa Cabernet experience at home, for about four quid, buy a jar of plum jam from the supermarket and chase it with a shot of vodka. Okay, that's pretty good. So, what do you think about Sutter Home? Raoul, what do you think about Sutter Home? I'm afraid I can't answer that one. Sutter Home is Blondie's favorite. She needs the pocket bottles and I would quite like to keep my job. So, talking of fruit, whatever happened to my fucking banana zone, you probably know. Promise me. Fair question. I slipped on that banana and landed flat on my face and I have said so publicly. I thought there was another leg to go and the timing was wrong. What did not break is the mechanism. The refinancing cycle still sets the rhythm, liquidity still drives asset prices and things still respond in the same order. What changed is that governments turned their debt out. From four years to roughly 5.4 to 5.8 and the excess liquidity that should have flowed into crypto got hoovered up by the AI trade instead. The banana is still coming, it's just later than I wanted and for where we actually sit in that sequence right now, the dashboards have the live read. So, how should I think about asset allocation at this point in the cycle? Everything sits on a risk curve and the further out you go, the harder it responds when liquidity goes up. Technology and crypto are right at the far end, which is why they move like a whippet off the leash while everything else ambles along. What's happened lately is that excess liquidity, the bit above what the economy actually needs, hasn't been strong enough to lift everything at once. So what did show up, Wynton, the loudest story in the room, that rotates. It always rotates. I don't do allocations, but the risk curve is the thing to understand and it's all in the everything code. Okay. Final question for you now. How handsome is Raoul? Very fucking handsome. Thank you. I appreciate you. I'll talk to you later. Good on you. We'll talk soon. So, as you can see, it's sort of the accurate. It's amazingly put together. It has, well, look, it's pretty fucking cool. It's fun. relpal.ai. It's free. Go and play around with it. it's actually trained on, I'm going to plug my book again, the everything code. The everything code is that structural thesis about what drives markets, what drives economy and why it's all happening, why things get more expensive every day, why it's harder and harder to keep up all of this stuff. That book comes out in, in November, November 3rd, but the pre-orders are available. I'd be honored if you were to buy my fucking book. So go to amazon.com. In fact, I'm going to wait for you for a sec. Just go to Amazon. Just click on your one click order for a sec. Uh, cause I want to see a couple of thousand orders come through so I can pretend I'm really important and I can go to the publishers and say, look how powerful I am. Everybody just follows everything I say. Anyway, amazon.com. I'll wait for you. Go on. Let's sit there drinking a fucking beer and eating your Doritos. Order the book. Raoul Pal, R-A-O-U-L Pal, the everything code. One click buy. Perfect. Thank you. Okay. So what's next? So the everything code is that framework that actually the whole AI is built on. It's also the framework of which I look at markets. And so as ever, it's time to get into the alpha. Now, let's get into the alpha. So let's get into the alpha. I'm going to do something again, special for you today, because I built over the last few months myself because I'm not only handsome, quite, I'm sorry, from the cheap seats. I'm not only handsome and obviously incredibly intelligent and have fine cultured taste. I'm actually now a expert programmer and developer and I can build anything. In fact, what I do is talk to, uh, to Claude with my whisper flow and just ramble at it. And it doesn't work. It doesn't work. It doesn't work. It does things for me. And it built my entire everything code dashboard. There's in real vision in real vision alpha, there's the macro investing tool dashboard. Um, and then in pro there's a whole other bunch of dashboards and they'll broken down to tons of stuff. Anyway, you'll see it when you go over to the real vision. I'm going to be doing, by the way, questions with, uh, the rail AI, the rail mentor is going to be, uh, on real vision on the platform. So go to app.realvision.com it's free. Go there, um, sign up and then you can go and see the questions when, when the audience on real vision, who are the smartest callers audience in the world. And we'd like to hang out with them are going to be answering, asking my AI questions. It's probably going to go horribly wrong. It'll probably give awful mistakes and embarrass me. And then you can take snapshots and put them on the internet to show how terrible either I am or my AI is, or both of us, because we're kind of connected with the same person. So anyway, app.realvision.com in a little bit, but let's go to the platform. So I'm going to try and find which screen I had this on. Okay. So, so we're going to start with, so these are the everything in code charts. Now there is hundreds of charts of all of the charts you've ever seen me or Julian Battelle talk about in the past. Um, so global liquidity, US liquidity, the big picture charts, they're all there. And you can play around with all of these. You can zoom them in, zoom them out, change the leads, lags, everything. So they're really cool. It's super powerful. Nothing exists like this anywhere, but it's on real vision and it's all part of your subscription. There's even stuff on the free tier as well. The free tier is amazing. You get the trade ideas from the audience, uh, from the, from the community, you get the notes from the community. You've got a whole bunch of dashboards being launched, which, which looks up not only, um, like technical signals and stuff like that, but also scrapes all of the actions within the communities where the focus is and finds what looks like the breakout trades, interesting opportunities, that kind of stuff. I've also done it by sectors and all of that stuff. There's portfolios for you to follow. There's a lot there, but anyway, without plugging real vision too much, this is the stuff that, that, that I managed to build for everybody, but I'm going to go to my charts because I've selected a bunch of charts. So this is the everything code in a very quick nutshell, settle back, get yourself a drink. I'm just trying to solve what I actually prefer. This white one is really bloody good. I'm telling you. I don't know how much it is. Blondie, any idea? I think it was like a hundred. I think it was expensive. It was not inexpensive says Blondie who has a Louis Vuitton habit. So that means it's very expensive. So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called prepare for your future. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible, and this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. So, um, okay, here we go. Firstly, it's all about demographics always has been always will be. And the robots and the AI will be the new demographics. Once you understand that you basically understand all of economics. Most people don't get it. Everyone's too fucking short term. They're worried about, you know, did I catch the latest move on some piece of shit on Robinhood? Because some guy on X talked about it for 10 minutes while he got paid in the token and then dumped on you. It's that kind of mess. Um, I just think it's much easier to be longer term and we'll come on to some of the charts in a bit as well. So labor force participation rate and the births deaths. So the births deaths is what drives how many people are in the workforce, obviously. And because of the baby boomers retiring the largest cohort that was ever born as a percentage of a population, um, it drives everything. And that drives down the labor force participation rate. And it's going to keep falling all the way here into 2028 or so we're going to say collapse in the number of people in the workforce. It's going to make the unemployment data screwy because it's going to be less people in the workforce, but unemployment will say relatively okay because these people aren't claiming unemployment because they retired anyway. It also slows down economic growth. And because it slows down the economic growth, this is the, I say this every time I produce this chart, nobody's ever else produced that, which is, and it's not exactly complicated, but people don't understand how important it is, is the labor force participation rate is what drives debt to GDP as an aging population slows down the trend rate of growth of GDP. It's papered over by debt. And so we know from this that the labor force participation rate is going to fall a lot. And therefore debt to GDP is going to rise a lot. And we can see that there seems to be no way out. The interest payments on the debt keep going up. And that compounds the debt itself. And then it's paid for via liquidity. They create money either at central bank level, money printing, or via the banking channel. They're the only two people who can create money. And this is the total liquidity narrow. So this is the total liquidity narrow. So this is basically the Treasury general accounts, the Federal Reserve balance sheet, and in addition is the amount of Treasuries held at the banking system. So this is not the total kind of leverage of the system. This is just them absorbing these bonds and then creating credit from them. And you can see very, very highly correlated. And then we get the interest payments on the debt. Why this happens is, I think the answer is, because this is broad liquidity. So this includes all loans and leases in banks, because more lending gets hedged via Treasuries. And so you create a demand by Treasuries by increasing lending in the private sector, which is what one of Scott Besson's ambitions, Steve Mirren, and others is get the banking sector to take over from the central bank as the main creator of money. And that's what it does. And it just says, you know, we're going to have a lot of debt. We're going to have a lot of debt. And it just says, it keeps going. The other thing we're waiting for is, I've talked about it a lot. Scott Besson's talked about it a lot. Walsh has talked about it a lot, is we're all expecting productivity to pick up very sharply. And productivity is basically, you know, how productive are people in the economy? You know, what output do they produce? So it lags the it also lags the CapEx in the AI build out and all of this stuff. So fully expecting productivity to start increasing as CPI share of the economy of nominal GDP starts falling. This is what everybody's waiting for, because this is the big one. This is what we got in the late 90s. This allows you to have a benign inflation environment and strong growth. And I think it's coming. So that's the one to set on your screen. The other thing is the CapEx. So CapEx is the one that's going to be driving this. So CapEx is also lagging the ISM. But CapEx is the thing that's driving this. What we've got is this amazing cycle right now, where the pointy end of the stick is, in fact, the entire economy is based around something I call the universal code, which is a whole different thing. But basically everything, not only the economy, but every single observable part of the universe, biology, physics, chemistry, everything is based around output of energy per unit, output of intelligence per unit of energy. What we see is there's, observably in the business cycle now, we have, you can't create energy without silicon chips. So it all starts with that. And what we've gone is to a crazy world now where we're now, we've gone from putting electricity through carbon, humans, all biological life, to create intelligence. And we've jumped substrate. We've jumped substrate to put electricity through a fucking stand. So silicon is the new substrate. Silicon doesn't parallel process as fast as yet as carbon, but it's a million times faster. So this is the machine world we're moving into. So silicon comes first. The chips get exported. They arrive in the US. They start training models. We start to see the increased intelligence. You can't ramp out that intelligence until the data centers are built. You've got massive capex to do. You have to do the energy component, the solar, the gas, all of this stuff. And then what happens is the output is an acceleration of intelligence. And we've seen that. The money that was spent three years ago, two years ago, is now producing Fable 5.1 and today, Chad GPT-6 or whatever the fuck it's called. Which is seems pretty wild. And that's, that is the, the, the dominoes that the output of intelligence keeps increasing per unit of debt. Even, even though it's built on debt, the output of intelligence keeps increasing. And the demand for intelligence is almost infinite or is infinite. Anyway, that's a whole different topic. Speculative positioning right now. Markets, um, is flat, maybe as long markets look like they absolutely want to rip. Um, and we'll go through some of these charts. Um, and I'm flipping. Around because they landed in random order. I assume versus financial conditions, financial conditions leads everything. It is the daddy. And why is it the daddy? Cause it's rates and the dollar and the dollar is the big one here. So rates and the dollar here, this is three months rates and the dollar is financial conditions. Um, it leads ISM. It leads it by nine months and it tells us that ISM, you know, we had that, um, this month was down a bit. Should go up a bit and then it'll probably trade sideways a little bit into, um, the first quarter or two of, um, 20, 27 post midterm elections. That's the hangover you usually get from midterm elections. But like the nineties, I don't expect a business cycle. I don't expect, um, financial conditions to tighten dramatically. I think it's ongoing because of the biggest CapEx build out in all history has to be financed along with the government has to be financed. So they have to let the monetary spigots continue to flow and they haven't been flowing enough yet. And I'll come into that in a sec. There's also, we've had some monetary tightening, um, from financial conditions and I break it down by the four component parts. So you've got front and easing long end. The long end here has been squeezing. The front end has been fine. The dollar has been easing and the oil has been squeezing. So of the four legs, only two are firing to say, yeah, there's tightening going on. So that means you get wobbly markets, probably. So you've got a lot of things going on. You've got a lot of things going on. but the banks haven't bought that many new treasuries and the reason being is because they've got constraints because the yield curve is too flat the yield curve needs to steepen now what we don't want is a bearish steepening so we don't want the long end blowing up so scott besant's trying to peg the long end get the japanese and chinese and south koreans and everybody to buy it and we'll come on to the charts on that in a sec and then we've got walsh going to use pretend he's really hawkish and then knowing that the data is going to weaken and the inflation data is going to weaken productivity data is going to pick up and he'll find an excuse not to raise i don't think he hikes um bitcoin and its trend because it's related to global liquidity nasdaq so bitcoin's interesting right so bitcoin is one standard deviation oversold it got to one and a half or so so it's pretty oversold you only gets there very occasionally let's see if we go back um it only gets there very occasionally so it was pretty oversold at that point now when you look at the nasdaq the nasdaq has been over one standard deviation overbought for a long time obviously because there's the ai boom going on but on a relative basis and i haven't got the chart here nasdaq versus um i'm sorry bitcoin versus nasdaq is a super interesting chart because it too is in a log trend because bitcoin outperforms over time it got to two standard deviations oversold and it suggests to me that that gap will close so there's hopeful for us crypto people as well even though i invest in anything that i want to um crypto is one of those passions so that's that like i've already run 42 minutes we've not even got to the platform i'm hopeless while we're drinking i've lost track already it's okay i've just got random glasses okay more alpha let's go to some charts i'm just going to do a run through what the whatever the fuck i think i'm want to look at um probably the best chart in the world so i'm probably jinxing it now is um is ccash i mean what a gorgeous chart right it's a really easy narrative as well super easy narrative because all you have to say is oh well it should be about 10 of bitcoin is used for privacy money and um and we don't have enough privacy in this world and that's fine makes perfect sense i own some of this i think it does well that's actually so actually have a look at the longer term charts uh okay okay so what we did is form this kind of lovely sort of w base pattern here and we're breaking high i mean i just don't see how this does not go a long way um obviously on log charts you don't get the magnitude of the move so let's change it from a log chart just in case it looks any different um fucking even then i mean just i mean this is a good looking base chart so i'm just going to go ahead and do a little bit of a look at this now could you have a spike up back down yet of course nobody knows how it's going to play out but nobody knows how it's going to play out but nobody knows how it's going to play out but i actually really like this um i actually really like this um i actually really like this um bitcoin itself let's just go back to weekly we kind of got this i'd love to weekly we kind of got this i'd love to weekly we kind of got this i'd love to clear this area clear this area clear this area and then what's this this is the av 2000 and then what's this this is the av 2000 and then what's this this is the av 2000 level level and then i think it looks good but let's and then i think it looks good but let's and then i think it looks good but let's wait and see because we wait and see because we wait and see because we you know you can see these sideways you know you can see these sideways you know you can see these sideways chop fests you know you get these they chop fests you know you get these they chop fests you know you get these they look great and then they look great and then they look great and then they fall later so let's just wait and see fall later so let's just wait and see fall later so let's just wait and see my liquidity work the workers i look at my liquidity work the workers i look at my liquidity work the workers i look at suggest that it that it that the base is suggest that it that it that the base is suggest that it that the base is in it goes higher and that'll be the end in it goes higher and that'll be the end in it goes higher and that'll be the end of the four-year cycle narrative of the four-year cycle narrative of the four-year cycle narrative and everything else so and everything else so and everything else so that'll be that that'll be that that'll be that ethereum is ethereum is ethereum is i mean just i mean just i mean just the most gorgeous chart i've ever seen we need to clear this level just two and we need to clear this level just two and we need to clear this level just two and a half grand level a half grand level a half grand level it's always done a lot of chopping it's always done a lot of chopping it's always done a lot of chopping around two and a half grand ups and around two and a half grand ups and around two and a half grand ups and downs and ups and downs downs and ups and downs downs and ups and downs breaks that obviously goes to the top of breaks that obviously goes to the top of breaks that obviously goes to the top of the range the five grand level the range the five grand level the range the five grand level and then when this wedge goes you know and then when this wedge goes you know and then when this wedge goes you know we saw what wedges look like we just we saw what wedges look like we just we saw what wedges look like we just look like that look like that look like that uh uh uh let's do the weekly z cash when wedges go there's a wedge going when wedges go there's a wedge going when wedges go there's a wedge going there's a wedge going when they go they there's a wedge going when they go they there's a wedge going when they go they really go it's kind of really go it's kind of really go it's kind of stored stored stored power power power and the stored power here is and the stored power here is and the stored power here is enormous enormous enormous um so i still really like this i know um so i still really like this i know um so i still really like this i know everyone's like oh hell it's been so everyone's like oh hell it's been so everyone's like oh hell it's been so crypto i'm like really crypto i'm like really crypto i'm like really again because everyone's time horizons again because everyone's time horizons again because everyone's time horizons are so are so are so goddamn short goddamn short and what's bizarre is the shortest time and what's bizarre is the shortest time and what's bizarre is the shortest time horizon people horizon people horizon people are the 20 something year olds show me the are the 20 something year olds show me the are the 20 something year olds show me the money now money now money now i'm like jesus christ you've got the best i'm like jesus christ you've got the best i'm like jesus christ you've got the best set of opportunities the world's ever set of opportunities the world's ever set of opportunities the world's ever given you given you given you and he wants it immediately and you've and he wants it immediately and you've and he wants it immediately and you've got it all got it all got it all it's it all in front of you so it's amazing i just cannot understand so it's amazing i just cannot understand the short-termism of people the short-termism of people the short-termism of people given a macro opportunity set but that's given a macro opportunity set but that's given a macro opportunity set but that's you know that's why us macro old dogs you know that's why us macro old dogs you know that's why us macro old dogs tend to do quite well over time um tend to do quite well over time um tend to do quite well over time um solana interesting chart as well because solana interesting chart as well because solana interesting chart as well because this really to me this really to me this really to me you know if i just look at the monthly you know if i just look at the monthly you know if i just look at the monthly chart chart chart it just feels like it's a big fucking it just feels like it's a big fucking cup and handle cup and handle cup and handle this is right this is lalaville this is right this is lalaville this is right this is lalaville again this is a monthly chart we're not again this is a monthly chart we're not again this is a monthly chart we're not talking about talking about talking about today next week this month next month today next week this month next month today next week this month next month the next year but we're talking about the next year but we're talking about the next year but we're talking about the overall structural the overall structural the overall structural signature pattern of the markets and signature pattern of the markets and signature pattern of the markets and they're very good i mean they're very they're very good i mean they're very they're very good i see nothing that is negative i see nothing that is negative i see nothing that is negative in the longer term basis short term in the longer term basis short term in the longer term basis short term is it overbought let's use is it overbought let's use is it overbought let's use i love demark indicators you should all i love demark indicators you should all i love demark indicators you should all get them they're fantastic get them they're fantastic get them they're fantastic uh untrading view um tom de mark's a uh untrading view um tom de mark's a uh untrading view um tom de mark's a friend of mine friend of mine friend of mine i mean everybody from stevie cohen to john i mean everybody from stevie cohen to john i mean everybody from stevie cohen to john burbank to stan drachenmiller to burbank to stan drachenmiller to burbank to stan drachenmiller to paul everybody uses paul everybody uses paul everybody uses demark indicators and most people retail demark indicators and most people retail demark indicators and most people retail people don't there's fantastic people don't there's fantastic people don't there's fantastic um and just ask your ai to tell you how um and just ask your ai to tell you how um and just ask your ai to tell you how it works it works it works but um and it's not very expensive but um and it's not very expensive but um and it's not very expensive either either either on bloomberg they're bloody expensive i on bloomberg they're bloody expensive i on bloomberg they're bloody expensive i paid for them for paid for them for 25 years um 25 years um 25 years um i just think yeah we've got the power to i just think yeah we've got the power to i just think yeah we've got the power to go higher here go higher here go higher here another one because i know a bunch of you another one because i know a bunch of you another one because i know a bunch of you hate me because you're in suey and you hate me because you're in suey and you hate me because you're in suey and you think it's the world's piece of ever think it's the world's piece of ever think it's the world's piece of ever it's gone down 80 and i keep saying i it's gone down 80 and i keep saying i it's gone down 80 and i keep saying i don't care because don't care because don't care because it's a high beats a token and that's it's a high beats a token and that's it's a high beats a token and that's what happens when the market goes down what happens when the market goes down what happens when the market goes down liquidity it's not strong enough and liquidity it's not strong enough and liquidity it's not strong enough and you're all like you're a piece of you're all like you're a piece of you're all like you're a piece of scammer and i'm like really here we go scammer and i'm like really here we go scammer and i'm like really here we go again why don't you go and buy your again why don't you go and buy your again why don't you go and buy your cat token again and lose money and then cat token again and lose money and then cat token again and lose money and then get your money your wallet rugged get your money your wallet rugged get your money your wallet rugged cheapest but also what they're building cheapest but also what they're building cheapest but also what they're building with it is amazing forget that the child's the truth chart forget that the child's the truth chart forget that the child's the truth chart went down a lot as we know went down a lot as we know went down a lot as we know i think we're forming i think we're forming i think we're forming a sort of weird a sort of weird a sort of weird it'd look better if i do it the other it'd look better if i do it the other it'd look better if i do it the other way around this weird head and shoulders way around this weird head and shoulders way around this weird head and shoulders you can't see it from here see if i can you can't see it from here see if i can you can't see it from here see if i can invert i don't know if i can yeah invert i don't know if i can yeah invert i don't know if i can yeah invert scale it's this pattern if we were to break it's this pattern if we were to break it's this pattern if we were to break here here here whatever that is 93 whatever that is 93 whatever that is 93 i mean this would take me all the way i mean this would take me all the way i mean this would take me all the way down to 260 or so down to 260 or so down to 260 or so um i'll invert it but overall but overall but overall this is what i think it's forming so this is what i think it's forming so this is what i think it's forming so it's earlier cycles that hasn't got the it's earlier cycles that hasn't got the it's earlier cycles that hasn't got the what i think is the basis of a large what i think is the basis of a large what i think is the basis of a large sort of wedge pattern forming over time sort of wedge pattern forming over time sort of wedge pattern forming over time so break here we get to the top we so break here we get to the top we so break here we get to the top we probably pull back probably pull back probably pull back and then we go and all the charts show and then we go and all the charts show and then we go and all the charts show me the same thing is the long-term me the same thing is the long-term me the same thing is the long-term pattern pattern pattern looks great right that's enough crypto looks great right that's enough crypto looks great right that's enough crypto let's do a bit of let's do a bit of let's do a bit of other stuff i mean another other stuff i mean another other stuff i mean another killer chart killer chart killer chart and it's so unfashionable and it's so unfashionable and it's so unfashionable but it's tesla i mean it's just but it's tesla i mean it's just but it's tesla i mean it's just it's just one of the best technical charts it's just one of the best technical charts it's just one of the best technical charts the world has ever produced it the world has ever produced it the world has ever produced it produces amazing i mean i didn't show produces amazing i mean i didn't show produces amazing i mean i didn't show you actually with uh you actually with uh you actually with uh with um with um with um sweet produced a monthly weekly and sweet produced a monthly weekly and sweet produced a monthly weekly and daily nines and 13 patterns but here we daily nines and 13 patterns but here we daily nines and 13 patterns but here we go go go with the 9 and 13 in tesla with the 12 we with the 9 and 13 in tesla with the 12 we with the 9 and 13 in tesla with the 12 we always count to another 13. always count to another 13. this wedge pattern they're all the same this wedge pattern they're all the same this wedge pattern they're all the same and tesla's very driven by liquidity and tesla's very driven by liquidity and tesla's very driven by liquidity obviously because it's not in your car obviously because it's not in your car obviously because it's not in your car company everything else company everything else company everything else even circle looks amazing i mean there's even circle looks amazing i mean there's so many good charts out there so many good charts out there so many good charts out there and this whole pause that we've been in and this whole pause that we've been in and this whole pause that we've been in for a while for a while for a while it's really good i mean look at that it's really good i mean look at that it's really good i mean look at that really what else do you need i mean scott really what else do you need i mean scott really what else do you need i mean scott best in the treasury secretary of the best in the treasury secretary of the best in the treasury secretary of the united states is telling you united states is telling you united states is telling you one of their primary ambition is to one of their primary ambition is to one of their primary ambition is to massively grow the stable coin market massively grow the stable coin market massively grow the stable coin market because it buys the government debt and because it buys the government debt and because it buys the government debt and dollarizes the world dollarizes the world dollarizes the world and you don't own circle i mean i don't and you don't own circle i mean i don't and you don't own circle i mean i don't get it get it get it um oh because it went down a bit um oh because it went down a bit um oh because it went down a bit recently and i recently and i recently and i i lost some money and i think you're a i lost some money and i think you're a i lost some money and i think you're a scammer and everybody is shit so yeah look it went down actually let's do it oh circle shit because it went down 85 percent went down 85 percent shit chart come back to me in three years time when it's up here somewhere and we'll talk again um spacex killer chart um yeah but what about all of the people who are long the stock who are going to dump on me everybody dumps on me it's the greatest fucking company the world has ever produced this has the highest chance of any company ever of repeating the british east india company in the dutch east india company this thing is basically going to be a fucking sovereign state and you're you're worried about what what it did because some vc is going to dump on me it's slightly it's the the narrative in this space is so stupid it's embarrassing um what else is interesting here um i mean robin hood i mean vlad doesn't fucking stop that guy's a goddamn machine i mean i mean really is the guy's a machine look at this and you know i added a bunch of the portfolio when it sold off here on this nine count and demark starting to rock it up again i mean this thing is producing a nice log trend channel looking really good um what else we got here interesting stuff oh yeah this is the killer chart of the day uh let's go to the daily chart dolly n the big daddy also known as the house of pain anybody ever trade dolly n in macro lost their fucking shirt um this chart looks to me like a obviously we had intervention us intervention intervention if they break this and the the japanese are really good with charts and trust me the central bank uses them because i've lived it and experienced it firsthand and they've even talked about it if between them and besant they can break this trend line at 155 and it's probably coming down to 140 or so and that creates the demand for bonds and everything else what best is trying to do here is to break this trend line and it's probably going to break this trend line let's get rid of the log chart is let's get rid of the d mark here i mean look at that one two three four five six daily 13s one two three four five six seven i mean that's the largest number of top counts i've ever seen this was pretty similar but these are almost all at the same level um so let's look at the long-term chart here now my view on this for and people who read global macro investor can account for this back here i said this thing is going to 200 plus because the inverted head and shoulders so far it's done well but 913 they really want it lower they want the dollar lower and and the yen higher and they will those of you because i mean i can see everybody's traveling around the world moving to japan right now because it's so cheap never used to be used to be the most expensive country in the world because it's so high quality anyway so that leads us to the big daddy the dxy dxy over time we're in the dollar uptrend this is a dollar of debted world the dollar is going up anybody who tells you the dollar is going to collapse since the end of the world order is smoking crack or stupid um but if we just go to the daily sharp i mean this is a sorry i'm fucking around with the charts always i do apologize um but i don't know what i'm doing but here we go abc correction five ways down abc breaking lower and as we break lower it should start to accelerate down to where i think it's going which is somewhere down here and it'll still be part of the uptrend of the dollar but you can see the nines and the 13 stacking up here telling us it's not going to last much longer so it comes back down to here and then we have the next leg higher because the dollar over time is trending higher and it's trending higher for a very simple fact is 50 of the world debt is in dollars uh the u.s is going to introduce stable coins to every single fucking corner of the planet um and there's going to be more buyers of dollars and then they're going to tokenize every stock and everyone's going to be buying spacex um why would you invest in a local market you know nigerian brewing company which have been great bets in the past versus spacex um because it's tokenized and you've got some crypto because you've got stable coins so that's where the world is going i'm trying to think uh bonds let's look at bonds quickly uh so let's look at the uh oh by the way the i actually didn't even know that so the two years putting two thirteens on a monthly chart and they're two months away from a nine as well generally speaking i'd expect to move down to kind of two percent that that's my longer my longer term view is that based on the deflationary aspects of of um ai robotics and everything else and the aging population is inflation has no chance i just don't get the of it so right now we're nudging up against the risk limit of the nine uh at the top of this range i think it's an abc let's see and if we look at the daily it's this rising wedge which i think will end up failing already getting top patterns i think it breaks the bottom of the wedge i honestly do we'll wait and see uh 10-year bonds just for everybody there how i look at 10-year bonds is that i think there's a range of which everyone goes oh my god they're breaking out but this is the range that every time it gets into scotty boy um sorts it out and he's doing it now and there's the weekly nine um final one because i know a bunch of you look at it gold uh gold looks fine it's um break out from the wedge correct it a bit let's have a look at it on a shorter term time horizon and gold is basically real-time financial conditions if you want to know what ralph's financial conditions are you can look at gold because right now they're very high and they're very high and they're very high highly correlated tells you i think that this once this level goes here this kind of inverse head and shouldery pattern then goal goes up again because dollar's gonna fall rate's gonna fall and that's why dollar falling rates falling financial conditions moving the central bank having to the central bank having to continue to finance the interest payment via the issuance of the interest rate and that's why dollar falling rates falling financial conditions moving the central bank either banking system or themselves is the everything code to offset the aging population i don't think there's a full cycle i don't think what we've gone through in crypto is a cycle it can't be because it wasn't a liquidity cycle it was a dampening of liquidity whilst there's a massive bull market in something else i just think it continues over time and i don't sweat the small time horizons if you do you're up the biggest opportunity you've ever had all you've had to do and i said this when i started the whole idea with the exponential age all right it's two bets to have in fact the everything code the everything code was two things own nasdaq own crypto go to the beach and still the bitcoin has outperformed the nasdaq from the low and it will do over time but because your time horizons are too short you're gonna fuck this up okay that's all the alpha i'm going to give you fuckers because you're free and you haven't come over to real vision so there's a couple of things raoulpal.ai go and talk to me um because you need your help not only do you need help in actually not eating fucking whatever they crunchy nut cornflakes no they weren't even that they were crunchy toxic twists i don't know whatever that was you need help you need help in your wine taste you need help in how you think about markets how to zoom the fuck out and how to make it less stressful for yourselves and not feel so desperate to make money immediately and not to worry about drawdowns if you understand how to construct portfolios brings me on to the raoul ai doesn't will not give you trade recommendations it'll say what the everything code tells you it'll tell you how to think about investing you can you can even once you kind of put in your email into the bot you can even upload charts like dolly n and say what do you think about it and my ai will tell you about it you can upload pdfs of other people's work and say what do you think about this from your framework it'll do all of that you can use it as your mentor that's why it's called an ai mentor on the real vision platform it's there for you to help you but it won't give you what percentage of your portfolio but over in real vision there's the the rv brain and that's trained on real-time information and almost everything that happens on the real vision platform and it's really powerful for that kind of stuff now again it's not financial advice but it's going to help you a lot so the raoul mentor is supposed to be your investing mentor not your financial advisor the rv brain gives you more granular detail to help that you know we've leaned in massively into ai in uh in real vision and it's really going to help you so come on across and we can ask the uh the most handsome bots in the world questions with the community so app.realvision.com come across so i'm gonna ask you again order my fucking book no order my fucking book it's like 20 bucks come on what's this you've got 20 dollars of entertainment out of this alone so order the book um ral pal.ai it's there's not i'm not asking for money or anything just go there play with it please it's there for you it's a free tool tell everybody about it if you have a laugh if you have you know me saying ridiculous things or getting it stupidly wrong post it on x if it's stupidly right and it's really helped you post it on x do me a favor and then if you want to come across to the platform you can just come across to app.realvision.com and we'll go on with the questions from there with the very cool real vision community see you there you obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end but listen don't forget to go to realvision.com forward slash join and grab a free membership it's an incredible community packed with alpha great investment ideas and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future so get started 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