Cover the Weekend A sports Betting Podcast Episode 149

The weekend is here and this is the cover the Weekend Podcast. I'm Tom Lorenzo and I thank you for downloading the podcast and allowing me to be part of your day. You can catch me on Twitter or X via the handle Sportsbook Tom. I take a look at the week and ahead from a sports betting perspective every week and share suggested plays and other strategies related to sports betting based on over 30 years of betting sports. As you know if you have been listening to this podcast no ads no sponsors I don't ask you to sign up for a sportsbook using an offer code or betting app. This is a listener supported podcast you can support the podcast by what you're doing now downloading it super appreciate that five star rating positive review reposting on Twitter or X. Also there's a paid option via patreon patreon.com/coverthewiken additional plays and info during the week and of course parley ticket drawings on occasion here for the paid members the drawings will return in a couple of weeks we'll have some college football probably do some Heisman futures NFL maybe throw some MLB futures in there to kind of juice up the payoff on those parles here just a small thank you for those that go the extra mile but whichever way you support the podcast I'm always appreciative of that. This week on the podcast a look at the World Cup including a quick look at futures and a pair of plays for the weekend a suggestion on an MLB future long shot that I think is very interesting and I'll share that with you here a little later here on the podcast and also MLB suggested plays for Friday and Saturday we will resume with the college football season win totals on next week's podcast we are in July now so I'll be certainly ramping up college football here beginning on the next podcast gonna start talking some Heisman some you know futures in terms of season win totals also for the Patreon group I'll start populating the Patreon group board during the week too with a season win total here and there and why I think I like the over or the under I've already started to look at a few of those just as a reminder last year in the power for a 12 and three on season win total so did pretty good last year hope to repeat that again not as great with the group of five or group of six whatever it is now with the pack 12 returning but still profit in that too just wasn't 12 and three but still turned a profit on those plays as well so looking forward to college football it's starting to appear here on the radar and we'll be talking a lot of college football and upcoming podcast and also for the Patreon group of course so let's start off with an MLB future and this MLB future might be worth getting involved with even for some pizza money last I saw it Caesar's as of this morning the odds on rookie of the year were down 22 to 1 but draft Kings had this guy at three 30 to 1 excuse me and plus 3000 so check your sports book of course in the nationally group of the year market currently JJ weather holds a favorite he's around minus 150 minus 155 South Stewart the preseason pick here on the podcast around plus 900 is now around plus 350 plus 300 hit another home run last night so South Stewart I think is still very live here and not even favored with really good numbers you have to go through a couple of columns though on in this market until you come to a player whose name is TJ Rumpfield if you're not really a day-to-day baseball guy or gal you probably haven't heard of him but Rumpfield from the Rockies is putting up some pretty good numbers and I think it's worth looking at again I've seen him anywhere from 22 to 1 to 30 to 1 for nationally rookie of the year of course as I mentioned with South Stewart I'm certainly still rooting for him he was a preseason pick here for the Patreon group and the podcast 8 to 1 I got him at 9 to 1 he's projected to go for 28 homers and 100 RBIs if he stays on his trajectory this is South Stewart so I think South Stewart is still a good play his underlying power numbers fully support those big numbers too those are rookie of the year numbers to me hard to think that 100 RBIs is a rookie doesn't get you the award so that's why I think the move to try to beat the odds on favor JJ Weatherholds especially at minus 155 is worth a go here Weatherholds expected to hit right around 255 with his projection now he does other things like steel bases a good defensive player there's a reason he's a favorite but I think he's vulnerable especially at that number Rumpfield from the Rockies is already one nationally rookie of the month honors and ranks near the top of the rookie class and batting average OPS slugging hits RBIs and while pairing that offense with pretty good defense at first base that he plays really good plate discipline from Rumpfield to meanwhile favorite JJ Weatherholds front runner status he's on the Cardinals it's linked more to his under all around game and again the the war the wins above replacement that's always a big thing with these awards markets again I've complained for MVP and other things like that if if war is what you know people who vote on these things look at the name at the war award the wins above replacement player of the year don't name it MVP I just maybe it's the traditionalist in me but I think sometimes all that's a very important stat I think the overall other numbers have to be looked at 155 for JJ Weatherhold the market really is pricing him like this race is already over and it isn't weather holds value is driven heavily by his nice start of course he did get off to a good start and that war I mentioned but Rumpfield here has a type of traditional counting stats home runs RBIs run production that should resonate with rookie the year voters if he finishes with a strong second half and all indications show that Rumpfield will low pressure for him he's playing in a great hitters ballpark in Colorado so I think there's a lot going for Rumpfield here especially at this very big long shot number JJ Weatherhold going back to him is projected to finish at around 20 home runs 57 RBIs pretty low number and a 253 batting average that's just a projection of course using the things I look at to show projections on hitters so aside from stolen bases Weatherhold will be behind Stewart and probably Rumpfield too if Rumpfield keeps things up so with roughly half a season remaining and several legitimate challenges still within striking distance that would be to me Rumpfield and South Stewart there's a couple other guys the the rookie on the on the Giants is being looked at as well but Rumpfield's price at up to 30 to 1 I think that understates his realistic path to maybe overtaking who to me is a vulnerable favorite it's not insurmountable at all so I think Stewart from the Reds grinds away and hopefully he gets there but Rumpfield is a logical ad right now to the portfolio for the your MLB season futures given these odds and is hitting whose underlying numbers show like I mentioned are completely legit so check your sports book I've seen them at 22 to 1 and 30 to 1 it's worth a few bucks in my opinion all right before going into the MLB Friday Saturday information here let's talk some roll cup the Netherlands was my sleeper and down they went this week many of these European teams including Germany who is also balanced have not looked strong so far playing here in North American version of the world cup seems like the European teams usually step up you know when they're playing the World Cup in Europe or excuse me close to Europe but you know we'll see how this all unfolds here so for me these with these European teams looking a little shaky except you know the machine that is France of course I talked last week about a couple of name the finalist props and including looking at the Argentine and France finalist prop at Caesars which was originally mentioned on the podcast at at plus 1300 that is plunge all the way down to plus 350 I mentioned it last week I believe it was around plus 700 last week I'd have to go back and check but it has gone down precipitously here and it really looks like these two teams will meet in the final but we'll see there's a lot of footballer soccer left to play so we'll see how all this pans out right now plus 350 I don't know if that's the number to bet the sat for the name the finalist Caesars offers that but anyway Argentina Netherlands was suggested 22 to 1 that actually obviously went down the drain so if you still have the Argentine of France won I did pick that up at 13 to 1 at the beginning that's still looking pretty good especially at that number so it's been a great world cup so far and as a fan of the US national team for over 30 years it's been awesome watching team USA play and the country getting behind them we'll see how it goes against Belgium very tall order but certainly not impossible and the betting markets show it it's basically looking as a a pick-em game technically I mean you have the three-way line on that but they play on Monday and it's going to be one of the the better games here coming up over the next few days there's a big one on sat Sunday too I'll discuss that shortly here so let's go to a couple world cup plays for the weekend and try to get some winners here on the podcast for the patreon group it's been a fantastic and profitable world cup so far of multiple units and the paid members will continue to get plays over the weekend during the week as I see fit when I see something that makes sense I will share it with the group immediately so far so good on world cup we've hit some nice ones there and also keep an eye this weekend for additional plays for the weekend in the world cup let's take a look at Take a look at a couple of World Cup plays. First, we're going to go Friday here, Egypt versus Australia, 2 PM Eastern. Australia flat out just lacks the firepower to put up goals. This game looks like another low scoring affair. As the Aussies just pack it in and wait for very limited situations in the game to initiate a counterattack or try to get a set piece situation. Egypt's best player, Salah, is nursing a hamstring. The reports are that he will play hamstring injuries, especially in soccer. You're running around 90 minutes kicking the ball, exerting yourself. I'm always leery of hamstring injuries. Ancles things like that. You tape that stuff up, but hamstrings can be a little tough. Hard to know how effective he'll be because he is their best player. For me, Egypt has looked slightly more organized defensively throughout the tournament, as where they look more organized as Australia is more controlled chaos with just throwing everyone in the back and trying to hunker down. Egypt, too, they've been more efficient at creating chances without needing a lot of the possession. They're a pretty efficient team the way Egypt plays is efficient. I expect a tight knockout match here. A single well taken opportunity could be enough, a free kick or a mistake made where Egypt slides through here. I think Egypt 1-0 is a most likely outcome in my opinion for this game, as long as they maintain their defensive discipline. Like I said, Australia doesn't have much on offense. I think they will. Egypt +145 on the three-way line is suggested. It also a small play on the exact score of Egypt 1-Australia 0. I've seen this at well over +400. Take a look at that as well. I like Egypt here by a very small margin. I'm going to take a shot at the minimal score of 1-0 at +400 or better in this game here on Friday. Moving on to Saturday, France vs Paraguay 5 PM Eastern Paraguay woke up after that opening game against the US. It was a 4-1 loss. Paraguay played better in the rest of the group's stage and had a nice upset of Germany that went all the way to penalty kick. Paraguay had a really exert themselves in that game against Germany and got the win in a very emotional both through via the mind and also physically to beat Germany. He was a big win for Paraguay. One of their biggest World Cup wins in my opinion, which lands him here in the round of 16 vs France. I think this is where the road ends for Paraguay. Paraguay is hard enough to come down from that high when you upset a perennial power in Germany. For your efforts, you get the juggernaut World Cup favor right now in France. One thing Paraguay does well as defend, but this is going to be a different type of situation than the face so far in this World Cup, even that 4-1 situation vs the US. In this game, I keep landing at France 2-0, France 3-0 for the final score. France at +1-1.5 is juiced up to -170. So in this game, if you're going to take France on the money line like baseball at -1.5, you're looking at -170. If you're going to play that, I did it, but I'll show you how I did it because I'm not going to eat -170 on that, but I'll get to that in a second. I made two plays here at good numbers and I'll try to catch with an exact score play in this one. Again, I keep coming up to 2-0 and 3-0, France winning. So an exact score here, France 2-Paraguay 0 is at +450. And also France 3-Paraguay 0 is at +550. Those are at Draft Kings and that's what I'll be playing in this one. Those are pretty decent numbers for two very likely scores in my opinion. So I think that's a good approach there for checking out. France here, I just think they won by two or more goals, but -170, I even saw -180 out there is a little too much. But I think the correct way of doing this one would be France -170. And then looking at Argentina, they're at a huge number as well, -700. So it's hard to get involved there. But if you parlay France at -1.5 at -170, you're going to have Argentina at -700. That brings it down to -124. And that number is a lot more comfortable. Barring any crazy event happening where Argentina can't take care of Cape Verde in 90 minutes, which I think they will. Then you have a parlay that's a lot easier in terms of the juice you're going with here in the final number. So another play here, France -1.5 and then Argentina -700. That piece right around -123, -124. Just check your sports book on the number you get for that. So that's a recommendation there for the Patreon group. I'll have another World Cup information of parlay for the weekend. Also looking closely at that big England versus Mexico game at Esteka on Sunday. That's going to be a heck of a game. And I've heard people on both sides there saying that England is going to go down. That it's going to be very hard, which I agree to go to at Esteka Stadium. I talked about that in a couple podcasts ago that the most likely scenario is that England would end up playing Mexico in Mexico City. And lo and behold, we're here. A lot of people think Mexico can take them. There are still some that think England's pedigree and their firepower up top will go in there and get it done. For me as a World Cup fan and a soccer international soccer fan, that's about as good as it gets. It's going to be a heck of a game. So looking forward to that on Sunday. For those of you watching the World Cup enjoying it, I hope you're showing profit or at least just enjoying the drama of these games. It's been a very good World Cup so far. All right. Let's go to MLB, returning to MLB now. We are now in July, of course. The Patreon plays were just under four units of profit. And hit a little rough patch here last 10 days of June early on, but came back nicely and got it done. And for the Patreon group that have bet MLB based on my suggestions, I'm very grateful for your patience because baseball is something where you've got to just be very patient day after day, week after week. We've put together two winning months now. May was good. June was profit. We'll try to go into July as well. What happened? There was a two day stretch. I believe it was a Thursday and Saturday last week. It was an own five run, which had the place for June down just slightly after being up over five units, getting up to almost six units of profit the first week of the month. But as usual, MLB is a marathon out of sprint. And the month ended nicely enough along with those World Cup plays. And June MLB on the Patreon showed a profit of 3.91 units, almost four units. So like I always say, a $10 bet on those would have netted you a profit of about $40, $100 bet on each of those would be about $400 full disclosure. I don't bet $100 a game on MLB. Other things I do, my unit size on MLB is a little less than that simply because you're betting daily. But your bankroll is your bankroll. Your unit is your unit size, whether it's $5 or $500. Anyway, so profit for June, which I'm very happy about. Of course, after that crummy April, May and June have gone well in terms of being in the profit area for MLB. So we'll have July for MLB as well. We'll try to profit in July. And then as August comes around, we'll start transitioning to college football because the end of August will be here before we know it can't wait for college football to get going. So let's get some MLB for Friday and Saturday. MLB Friday, Mets at Braves, looking at a first five endings play here as Mets starter Christian Scott starts to ramp up his ending since dealing with a hip injury. He usually doesn't pitch more than five endings, but he's been very effective when doing so. He rarely allows more than three runs. A start, there's one runs here, two runs there. So bloops are rare with him. And today he gets a Braves team whose hitters have gone completely quiet over the last month versus Rides. They're barely above the 200th level over the last month. I like the Mets tonight here at minus 105 for the first five endings of this game versus the Braves. Moving along now in the American League, Twins at Yankees, Twins starter Mike Peretta's is 4.26 ERA. Really doesn't jump off the page. Actually most of his numbers are very pedestrian. Not terrible, but not great. But laying nearly minus 200 with the Yankees, I don't think is advisable here simply because today's starter for the Bronx Bombers Garrett Cole hasn't shown much since returning from injury. 6.12 ERA in a swinging strike rate. This is pretty incredible here. I've under 7%. That's a bit alarming to me for a pitcher like Gary Cole who really has always depended on his good fastball and good secondary pitches to miss bats. But he's not doing that right now. And until he shows that, I cannot back him. And actually I have to look to fade him in certain opportunities. And tonight versus the Twins whose hitters are hammering right handed pitchers, 290 batting average in a solid OPS of nearly 900 versus varieties over the last month. I think the Twins can put a run tonight and are a live dog against the Yankees. The underdog play for Friday is Twins at plus 163. And I'm going to go with Garrett Cole under 17 and a half outs to see if he doesn't reach 6 endings here. That'll be a winner. And that's at minus 109. That's also suggested. for Friday here in this twins Yankees game. No lines are out for MLB on Saturday yet, but a couple of things to keep an eye on is the under in the Metz Brave game. Metz Brave's game, excuse me, Chris Sale will go against lefty Sean Manet of the Metz. Manet actually has some pretty decent underlying numbers. I was a little surprised here. He's pitching pretty well. If this game lands at eight or better, I don't think it's gonna be in half. I'm assuming the total here will be at eight. That's the way to go here. It may click down to seven and a half because Chris Sale's on the mound, but if this is at eight, I think an underplay is good here. Seven and a half not so much. So see if you can get this at eight. If it's at eight, the under would be the play here on Saturday, on the Braves and Metz. Also on Saturday, I'll be looking to back the Phillies and lefty, Jesus, Luzardo. Casey's hitters were hitting decently versus lefties up until recently, where they've really slowed down. 24% K rate, which is not good against a pitcher like Luzardo. And an OPS that's under 700 over the last 10 days. So not a huge sample size, but as well as they were hitting lefties, the royals have really slowed down against left handed pitchers. Luzardo's K probably likely be elevated, that number will, but he should put in a strong performance as positive regression after his bad April. Really isn't full effect. So I'll be backing the Phillies here. Might even do the run line on this. But if I get the Phillies at minus 130 or better doubtful, but we'll see, if the Phillies around that number, then it's just going to be a straight play on the Phillies. So keep an eye on the Phillies against the royals on Saturday. For the Patreon group, please keep an eye over the weekend for more activity there, World Cup MLB. I'll be throwing those at you too. For the Patreon group as well, I will have college season win totals, some of which will not appear on the podcast. I'll give those to you ahead of time. Some of those lines have moved already, but I'm starting to compile those. Again, did very well the last couple of seasons with college season win totals, especially in the Power 4. So I'll be sharing that as well. World Cup, if you're watching the World Cup, I know many of you are. I hope you're enjoying it. It's been really good tournament so far. MLB rolls on, of course. They all start breaks right around the corner. And then college football also is near. If you're watching Wemmelden, PGA, whatever you're watching or betting on, I hope you enjoy it. Over this holiday weekend, celebrating the independence of our great country. I hope all of you have a fantastic weekend. May all your bets be winning wins, and we'll see you next time on the podcast. Thanks again for listening and downloading the podcast. Take care, everybody.