Cover the Weekend A Sports Betting Podcast Episode 141

The weekend is here and this is the cover of the weekend podcast. I'm Tom Lorenzo and I thank you for downloading this podcast and allowing me to be part of your day. Of course, you can catch me on Twitter or X via the handle sportsbook. Tom, here on the podcast, I take a look at the weekend ahead from a sports betting perspective every week and share suggested plays and other strategies related to sports betting based on my over 36 years of sports betting experience. As you know, if you've been listening to this podcast, no ads, no sponsors, no commercials, I'm not asking you to sign up for anything related to sportsbook, offer code, things like that. Purely listener supported and I appreciate all of you that listen in and support the podcast in your own way. You can support the podcast by leaving a five star rating, a positive review, reposting or retweeting, retweeting, excuse me on X. Also, a Patreon option, patreon.com/coverthewekend and you can go there and of course we have suggested plays during the week, also future plays. A couple of those looking good, AL-Sai Young. On the Patreon, I did provide information on Cam Slitler and Jose Soriano of the angels when they were big money. Slitler was triple digit odds. Soriano was 35 to 1 when it was suggested there. Mentioned Slitler on the podcast as well. Those two guys are very live for Sian. Tarek's scuba of Detroit actually had the trainer come out and check him out. Something may not be right with him. He is still the favorite and should be. But Slitler and Soriano have the goods to get that done in the AL-Sai Young market. We'll talk more MLB coming up here after this week because this week we got to get to the Kentucky Derby, which goes off on Saturday, of course, for Saturday and May. I'll talk about the Derby, but also the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, which is basically the Kentucky Derby for the female horses. I really like a horse in that one. It's probably out of the two races. I think this horse in the Oaks is the one I like the most. So I'll share that one as well. And for the Derby, a pair of long shots I'm looking at, well, one may not end up being a long shot. A wedge double digit odds might drop below that. A lot of steam on this horse and I'll talk about him in a second. And of course, as I mentioned, a look at the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, also some MLB suggested plays for Friday night. And I'll talk about that, of course, a little later on the podcast. So let's get right to it. Kentucky Derby. This year's Derby is nothing like last year's in my opinion. From a handicapping standpoint, last year, for me, sovereignty really stood out. And the price of seven to one, that's what he went off at last year was absolutely fantastic. Of course, we hit sovereignty last year here for the win on the podcast. And very nice odds. Also picked up the trifecta. Very good Kentucky Derby day. Last year, we're going to try to do it again. But again, this race and this handicapping for this race is much different. And you really have to just eliminate some good horses. You can't bet 8, 9, 10 horses. You have to look at the ones you like and then start eliminating some. It was hard to do this year. But given it a shot, we'll see how it goes here. I'll hit on three favorites first. And I think all of these need to be included in the exotics. But as I mentioned, I'll also discuss two long shots. Again, one is going to be a long shot. One is odds is creeping down a little bit. So we'll see what he goes off at. And basically how I'm looking at this race. This field is wide open and you can make a legit case for at least half of the horses in this big field. I think you can get up to 8, 9, 10 horses that you can make a case for. So let's start with further ado. He's the number 18 horse. A horse, excuse me, a contender. He destroyed the field in the blue grass and just under even money. But one thing is clear. He absolutely needs to rate in second or third place. From the get go to have a shot here. And that type of thing is not easy in a 20 horse field. Now further ado's position in the starting gate has been shifting a little bit, which is good as you get scratches. These horses shift. So he's not in the 18 hole. He's a little closer now. But we'll see if that makes a difference. His wind pattern is clear. He hasn't shown the versatility I prefer to see. I'm not saying he's not going to finish in the money or not have a good race. He does have the highest last race buyer figure. I've mentioned before if you've heard me talk horse racing, I'm a speed figure guy. I do give a lot of importance to buyer speed figures when it comes to handicapping and some other speed figures if they're available to me. One thing that always gives me pause though. And I've been going to the races since I was in grade school actually betting the races in my teens and reading the form and all that good stuff. One thing that gives me pause is when a horse puts up a buyer figure 10 points higher than his last race. I've seen time and time again. Again, those situations not turn out well. And here further ado, increased his buyer speed figure by 14 points in the blue grass. I mean, that shows you how well he did. But again, time and time again, I've seen a horse's bounce after that scenario. For those that don't know the horse racing wing go, bounce basically means you have a knockout, super race. For whatever reason, it takes a lot out of you or whatever. In the next race, they bounce and don't race well. And I've seen that in that scenario when a horse has a buyer speed figure, they clear their best buyer by 10 points in the next race. Maybe he's speaking and he'll make me look dumb. But I'm inclined to take a stance against further ado on the win end here. But in a trifecta or superfecta, yeah, sure. He's talented and I don't think he should be excluded from the exotics, but I'm not going to have him on top here for a win. You compare further ado to another of the favorites, number six, Commandment. And now you see more consistency with back-to-back triple digit buyers of 101. That's very good. And a greater versatility for the six horse commandment with the type of running style that he has. Commandment is another horse I'll be using in the exotics and he could win here. But I do question why Jockely Flavian Pratt chose to write another horse and Commandment has a new Jocke in Sia's running. He's a writer that can really finish though. And although it does look weird, Commandments had a few writers. It's just what happens. There's personal relationships with these Jockeys, trainers and owners. So sometimes it's not really that big of a deal to look into. Sometimes it is. Commandment enters a Derby on a four race winning streak, including victories in the Florida Derby and Found of Youth. Those are the two most productive preparations in terms of producing Derby winners. So I can't believe anyone from jumping on him to win. But your odds are going to be short. It would not be surprised if he's the favorite or their second favorite in this race. Okay, next up Renegade. He's number one horse. Historically, horses that win a great one prep like the Arkansas Derby. And show tactical speed tend to perform very well at Churchill Downs. Renegade also has enough experience with five starts to handle the chaos of this 20 horse field. But there's two big things working against Renegade. He's the morning line favorite at four to one. And we'll likely go off as a favorite in the Derby. We'll see. Derby favorites has not have not won for seven years and counting. So, you know, favorites in the Derby lately haven't been first to the finish line. Also, the rail draw is a concern drawing the one position has been historically difficult. The last time a horse starting from the number one hole won the Derby was in 1986. That's 40 years ago. Renegade does have the class and consistency to make him the horse to beat. But he's not by any means a shoe in. He'll probably overcome that number one position simply because he is a horse that comes from behind. So if he can get a rail trip and not get trapped behind too many horses, he should be fine. He's going to contend here. I think maybe too much is being made out of him starting in the number one hole. The numbers don't lie. 40 years since the number one horse has won the Derby. So we'll see. So let's go to the fun part now. A pair of double digit contenders, double digit odds, and the two horses I'll be placing windbets on. Again, one of them is going to be over 20 to one. But this first horse is flirting at 10, maybe 9 to 1. We'll see where he goes off at. He's getting action. And that horse is number 12, Chief Wallaby. This horse has a kind of upward trajectory. I like seeing in the three-year-olds leading up to this Derby. The only downside here is that this will only be his fourth race. With each start, he's shown steady improvement. He doesn't quit in the stretch. I like that. That shows toughness to me. And then the Derby, aside from how he ran in the last race, how the horse has done in stakes races, speed figure. I like to see toughness in horses. And that is serving me well, handy-capping Derby's. It's an element I put in. And how do you look at toughness? Really, it's just by looking at these replays. Looking at how the horse is trying down the stretch. If he can go between horses, get banged around and not be affected. There's hum horses that can fly. Sometimes are the fastest horse in the race. But they lack the toughness in the stretch. I mean, you've seen these races. There's dirt flying around, jockeys. that are very experienced and you know very hardcore trying to get a win you know bouncing around it's it's almost like a wrestling match sometimes in the stretch and you want to see a horse have some toughness back to chief Wallaby here he's been tough in all all three of his races two of them really good stakes races the founder of youth in the Florida Derby he finished second and third in those races but showed continued maturity rather than being overmatched he held his own in both and was right there close up to the to the winner his recent workouts at Churchill have been strong and focused he could very well be maturing at exactly the right time the blinkers go on so maybe that'll give him more focus down the stretch I don't know this trainer knows what he's doing so I have you know no issues with the blinkers going on for the first time Bill Mott knows what how to win this race an interesting thing about chief Wallaby if you look back to the 2023 Derby chief Wallaby's path to the Derby is eerily similar to that of that year's winner in 2023 that horse was mage who scored a 10 to 1 mage went into the Derby racing only three times just like chief Wallaby he won his maiden race which is his first race just like chief Wallaby in his second race the founder of youth mage finished fourth in that race this year chief Wallaby finished second and in mage's third race leading up to the Derby he finished second in the Florida Derby which chief Wallaby finished third in so a lot of similarities there with mage and the one similarity with both they're both were tough the reason I was on mage that year back in 2023 was because of the toughness that I saw him show mage was not a big horse either kind of a smaller sized horse but always race tough and showed a lot of might in those races very similar to what chief Wallaby has shown me so far now chief Wallaby is not gonna go off at his morning line number right now looking at the live odds he's nine to one so if you like chief Wallaby you're probably gonna get a good number on him I expect that number to kind of hold there maybe eight to one I don't think it's gonna get any lower than that simply because there's just some really good horses in here and I think chief Wallaby has his set of fans but I think eight nine to one is the number and you know I like his chances here and he'll be a win and place bet for me in the Derby the next of the two long shots is number 14 Potente this is a West Coast horse trained by Bob Baffert this horse has versatility and is improving in my opinion he broke his maiden wire to wire and then at San Anita and then in the San Felipe's stakes he was in fourth and fifth kind of stocking and had an angle wide with a strong effort to get up for the win and again only his second race is showed to me that this horse can run and only his second race he showed a lot of maturity rating you know allowing the jockey to take him wide and then responding in the stretch in the stretch excuse me Potente got in a speed duel in the San Anita Derby his following race that's not where he needs to be and that that was a problem there Mike Smith and so happy were the ones that won that race and they came up and swept up and and went by Potente but he showed toughness in the stretch Potente did and this is only his third start and he picked up a 95 buyer speed figure now you've got a horse like commandment in here with a 100 buyer but the commandment is much more experienced and you know you see Potente here possibly improving and he has a good jockey and Juan Hernandez and the key for pretend is to break well and be in a stocking position he basically already told his connections hey I can't go to the lead and sustain that keep me you know close to the lead and I'll give you the run that's needed at the end so if he breaks well and Hernandez can keep him you know rating 4th 5th 6th place easier said than done in a big field like this I think this this horse has a chance you're going to know in the first 10 to 15 seconds of the race where Potente's at in the positioning if he's way back I think that's a problem if he shoots out to the lead I think that's a problem too but if he can rate a little bit I think things can get very interesting with this horse a Bob Bafford horse who is improving and has shown that he can win is dangerous and the price is going to be right you're gonna get over 20 to 1 on Potente so I will have a win-in-place bet on him also for Potente you have to when I say win-in-place I don't always recommend betting multiple horses to win in place in a race but in a race like this the Kentucky Derby where you know you've got a horse potentially chief wallaby at 9 to 1 maybe 10 to 1 and then another horse over 20 to 1 in those scenarios it's fine and of course these horses will all be included in the in the trifecta here there are two horses I did not talk about that maybe can burn me we'll see those two are so happy who won the San Anita Derby and the Puma but the thing is in a year like this with so many contenders you have to shake your head as you draw a line through a few horses so you know that's the thing there if anyone likes so happy or the Puma I cannot blame them you know honestly and I'll break down how I'm betting this race shortly here with a mythical hundred dollars just to make it easy you know I may put a little something on the side on so happy and the Puma maybe in a little 50 cent trifecta or maybe an exact or something like that just to be sure and just have a little a small backup there so if those two horses do pop which they certainly can I just had it you know for me it was just a process of elimination I'll probably include them in just a very minor or small play so how I'm betting the Derby I'm gonna do a 50 cent tri box and that trifecta box is gonna include I'll go through it here slowly for the Patreon group I'm gonna post this for everyone just so you get it and understand so it's a trifecta this 50 cent trifecta cost 24 bucks so keeping it simple of course if you want a bet a dollar two dollars or whatever you've been on it that's fine so what what I'm doing in the trifecta is going 612 14 and 18 that's commandment chief Wallaby patente and further ado on top I'm excluding renegade from the first place position there but I will put the rest of those horses in second and third as well but also include renegade in second and third so I hope that makes sense the all the horses I mentioned right now I'm gonna put in the first slot in the trifecta which is really this is just a box here and then in second and third I'm gonna repeat all those horses but also add renegade to it so the ticket will basically look 612 14 18 and then underneath you're gonna have 1 612 14 18 and then again 1 612 14 18 and the third place position that 50 cent try cost 24 bucks so if I'm betting a hundred mythical dollars here and this is probably how I'll do it not necessarily with a hundred bucks but just to make it simple I'll do that 50 cent trifecta again of course it's like the Puma and others could become a problem but you know you can't put 10 horses in this thing when you're doing it this type of bet and then win place I'll have chief Wallaby hopefully around 9 to 1 and then also a smaller win place bet on patente who right now is around 23 to 1 so that's what I'll be doing with the Derby whatever you're doing with the Derby good luck it's always they call it the two most exciting minutes in sports and always love the Derby and the lead up to it and the stories wide open races here so you know we'll see what happens you can make a horse a case for a lot of horses here all right let's a quick talk on the Kentucky oaks and I actually like the horse and the Kentucky oaks more than any horse I'm betting in the Derby I really like number five meaning here he's a West Coast horse she really looked good in the San Anita oaks 85 buyer figure while stocking cruising to the wire without much urging from jockey Juan Hernandez who's on her here meaning is three for four lifetime with her only loss coming in last year's breeders cup juvenile fillies a fourth place finish where she had all kinds of trouble in the stretch and you know once she recuperated from you know being boxed in and pulling up she was firing away going to the wire but it just there just wasn't enough very tough race and when you have trouble like that in the lane it's going to be problematic meaning could easily be four for four going into this race here on Friday meaning should get the right trip here and I expect a nice number of five to one or six to one at post time a horse I will add to my exacta ticket here is number 10 prom queen who is improving in every race she should get the distance here and be in the money I mentioned exacta probably try to affect it here because I'm also going to put number 11 per se's bar into the mix here in my exotic bets per se's bar knows how to win and I like her tactical speed a very solid shot of finishing in the money here I'm going to keep it simple a wind placement on meaning with an exacta box with meaning prom queen and per se's bar and probably a small you know try affecta box with that as well I'll also be keying meaning because you can do a daily double call it the oaks Kentucky Derby double that bets available everywhere I'm going to put meaning I'm going to key on meaning to the five horses mentioned a few minutes ago in the Derby. I might even do meaning to the Puma and so happy just to kind of cover myself a little bit. Not sure if I'll go that far yet, but you can bet that double. That doubles as cheap as two bucks, I believe. I don't think it's five dollars. It's usually two bucks. So that combination won't cost that much, but I do like meaning in the Kentucky Elks on Friday. That's probably my favorite horse out of the two races, for sure. We'll see how it goes. I'll be in place on meaning. So anyway, good luck to all of you. If you're betting the Derby, the Oaks, or all the other good horse racing this weekend, Churchill Downs has a tremendous card on both Friday and Saturday on Kentucky Derby Weekend. So good luck to all of you and enjoy the race. Let's roll into MLB now. An MLB play for Friday. Braves at Rockies. The Rockies have been consistently striking out at a 25% clip versus Friday pictures. And that number has stayed stable pretty much throughout the season. Atlanta starter Grant Holmes is on the mound today for the Braves. His ERA doesn't get the blood flowing, but he does have a very nice swinging strike rate of nearly 14%. I have him at five strikeouts here in this game. If he stays out of trouble early and clears his five innings pitch, he should clear the four and a half strikeout total. Grant Holmes Braves over four and a half strikeouts. Excuse me. Also in this game, the pitching matchup of Grant Holmes versus Rockies lefty, Jose Contana is pretty one-sided in my opinion. I'm going to lay the one and a half and go with Atlanta on the run line here minus 130. Also for those of you looking at player props, Aussie Albies of the Braves is one to target, I think, for in the singles market hits total bases. And even maybe for a home run, if the number is right on Aussie Albies. I like him to do well tonight versus Contana. Also on Friday, Guardians at A's. Guardians starter Joey Contillo has quietly put up nice numbers for the Cleveland Guardians. He rolls into the hitters paradise at his Souter Health Park in Sacramento. But I think he'll have success versus the A's tonight. That's Friday night. The A's are hitting 217 versus lefties with an elevated strikeout percentage of 25%. Now, Contillo is not a big strikeout guy per se. He serves up a lot of ground balls though. I think that'll help him. Contillo doesn't typically go deep in games. So we'll roll with Cleveland first five innings tonight on Friday at a decent number. You can get that at minus 102, minus 105. Cleveland first five innings. I like that play today. For the Patreon group, I will likely have more on the weekend with baseball. Baseball has turned around a little bit for the Patreon, pretty cold month and April. But here the last few days, it's gone a little better. Three and one earlier in the week. Just missed on another winning day when the Braves hit a walk off against Detroit. That was tough. But anyway, baseball is turning around. And of course, now we're in May and things will get better there too. Enjoy the Kentucky Derby everybody. Hope you have a great weekend with your NBA finals as well. NBA playoffs, Stanley Cup playoffs. A lot of good stuff. A lot of good sports stuff to watch this weekend for everyone. May all your best be winning ones and have a great weekend, everyone. Thanks again for joining me on the podcast. Take care.