Cousins After Dark

(soft music) Hello listeners, welcome to a special edition of Geopolitical Cousins. We're calling this Cousins After Dark, not because you were listening to this after dark or maybe you might or not, because this came out after dark, but because we recorded it at 9 p.m. Central time, I think even later for Marker, we hope you enjoy the sweet buttery, dulcetones of our voices as we dive into global geopolitics. Email me at [email protected] if you want us both to see any comments, questions, concerns, anything else you want to tell us about the podcast, leave ratings, leave reviews, share with your friends, thank you for all the love, cheers, we'll see you up. (soft music) All right, that's Smooth Jazz that I had Smooth develop into the framework for this particular episode is for our new segment, Cousins After Dark. It's 9 p.m. here, it's dark in New Orleans. There's only the gaslit land turns outside, everybody's asleep. The cousins are getting cozy, how's it going cousin? You have a good day. - I'm having a great day. You're in New Orleans, I'm in Montréal, like the two kind of Francophones vestiges of French Empire, it's the jazz hour, it's after hours, just Smooth Jazz, and I am sipping out a little bit of a coffee 'cause it's been a long, long journey from Tennessee to Montreal, and here I am, like what did I do? I just on barely unpacked and right on the mic with my cousin. - That's what you do, man. I know that Bill Simmons is our Lord and Savior, but I have to tell you that in some sense, I feel like I'm becoming more and more like Roussillo by with each passing day, 'cause I'm now on this protein journey and I've started lifting, and now all of the Roussillo content about lifting suddenly makes sense to me, and I feel like I'm Roussillo in my bones deeply. I really miss them going at each other. - Me too, I think it was-- - I feel that space for them. - I do miss them as well, but it's okay. Like Roussillo had to spread his wings and that's part of life and there's nothing wrong with that. I think he's gonna do great, Zacklow did the same. Don't forget that. - He did, and I love Zacklow, and I love listening to Zacklow, but there was just a certain, I can't even describe it. There was a certain element of like, Simmons would say something crazy, and Roussillo would just be like, what are you talking about? Whereas Zacklow, he's too nice, he's too polite. He never tells Bill when he's going off the rails. - I feel like Zacklow and Bill, they have tension. Boss-- - How do you think? - Yeah, well, just a little bit. I feel like Zacklow's voice, this whole, well, hold on a second, I was in the ESPN for a very long time. Okay? I was in TV for a very long time. You can't, you can't like, big brother me anymore. You know, just like a little tinge of that, which is cool, and I like the way Bill kind of knows it, and it's just like cool with it, throws him a lot of compliments. Would Roussillo, it was just more natural? I didn't feel like they had it. - Yeah. All right, well, nobody wants us to do armchair psychology, a frying, Roussillo and Bill Simmons, they want us to talk about what's going on in geopolitics. Let's start with Iran, I guess, and then let's bring some other things in. - You're enthusiastic as of, it's like just-- - Oh, my enthusiasm there, this is "Cousins After Dark". I'm winding down. This is the buttery podcast. This is the one you put on if you're having trouble. No, I'm just kidding. No, there's actually quite a lot to talk about. And of course, we're recording, you know, the evening, Tuesday, the 28th, this will probably come out early tomorrow morning if smooth and get on it. I mean, there were a couple of things that happened today. The day, of course, started off. I was on a call at like 830 with someone, and they said, "Oh, Trump just did a truth." And I was like, "Oh God, what did he say?" And it was the truth that he said, "Iran has just informed us that they are in a state of collapse. They want us to open the Hormuz straight." That's in quotation marks. As soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation, thank you for your attention to this matter. So that was how I started my day. We've had a few more things that have come out. We know that the UAE is now leaving OPEC, interesting timing there. They also asked for Pakistan to repay a $3.5 billion loan, which is a big deal for a country that is sitting on 18 billion of foreign reserves right now and has a $7 billion IMF program that's keeping the lights on. You had the New York Times with a report that said the Trump administration internally is talking about how maybe two more months of the blockade will put enough economic pressure on Iran for them to finally concede two months. This is where Rory Johnson, I mean, if he hasn't already self-emilated, he's somewhere in a dumpster, lighting himself on fire with that two months comment. You had Scott Besson go out there and insist that Iranian oil production is going to collapse soon with apologies to uncle Peter Zahan if he's listening. Besson sounds like Peter predicting Russian oil production going to zero after the invasion of Ukraine. I don't think that's going to happen. I don't know if you've noticed this cousin. There's this now steady drumbeat the last couple of days about how Iran is scrambling to find places to store oil. So they only have 12 days of production left. - No, but that's-- - 24 days of production before they have to shut in the wells and that's going to be the silver bullet. That's the thing that's going to bring the Iranians to their knees. And then you have that Trump collapse too. And I'll just complete at least my version of the picture with gas today for 17 at the pump. That's the average price in the United States. Highest in five years is going to go higher. Brent crude flirting between 102 and 110 as we're talking. A very quiet 105, 106 kind of range. And I bet that'll go up from here. So apparently like cease fire off, I don't know. There's a lot, there's a lot to break apart in there. Where do you want to start? Well, let's start with the good news. You know, the good news is that the cease fire is holding. It is the most held together cease fire that I've really ever monitored in my career as a political geopolitical and macro strategist. So that is the good news. The bad news is that you're right. Like Brent is on a march higher. And so is the WTI. The difference between the two is Brent is more of an international way to price oil and WTI is American, but they're both going up in unison. There is no way to escape that. There's no way for the US to be sheltered from this economic pain of higher oil prices. And I think that's indication that time is running out. We just spent an hour and a half, I think, with Rory in our last part going over the Hormuz math, Rory was both more sanguine than unexpected in that he did see kind of the private and strategic inventories taking us through May, which then you countered by saying that they made you more pessimistic. And I agreed with you because it means that then there isn't really an urgency of a resolution in late April, which we're in now, or early May. So yeah, I mean, I think it leaves us at an impasse. It's a tenuous one, but it does not appear to me, like either side really wants to restart, at least the drones and the missiles and the air strikes. That does not seem to be on the horizon. The US has reloaded a little bit. New aircraft carrier is in the region. Two destroyers, I believe, steamed through, like a week or two weeks ago, but that's it. There hasn't been really any other announcements of new military moving into the region. And so I think the both sides are kind of waiting. The one thing that I will not scoff at is the fact that Iran does need to put their oil somewhere, like that is a fact. And so yes, I've heard pretty good forecasts that it's including BCA researchers own a shout out to Rukhaya Ibrahim, our great commodity strategist, at BCA research, basically between 10 and 24 days. How much Iran has before I think Trump said the pipes will blow up, will explode. He didn't say that. It was a Fox News interview. I'll try and find it and put it in the show notes. It was the way he was talking about it that was so irritating to me. It was as if he was suddenly a petroleum engineer and he was trying to explain to this Fox News reporter, "Oh yes, of course, when the oil gets shut in, this thing happens on the ground and explodes." And he was just talking nonsense, but he was just dripping with, "Oh yes, I'm a petroleum expert." Now I know all these things. I just can't. Well, they don't have to explode. They can just stop the production. We're sucks because you didn't have to restart it, but it's not the end of the world. They're already not getting any revenue for this crude. So yes, they will have to shut their production. That will have to happen. They're not going to have any way to get it out of the country. But worst things have happened to them, such as, "Oh, I don't know, maybe your head of state and religious leader was killed and assassinated and that you were born for six weeks." So yeah, I think that it is a factor that Iranians have to consider, including the fact, of course, they're not getting revenue. So I think the impasse continues in the way you put it, like the smooth, soft, the jazzy way, the Brent price, rising higher and higher. It's just teasing us as it gets slightly ever elevated on the chart. Like that makes it more likely that we sleepwalk into a pernicious point where we can't really go back to. You know, one thing that I have been trying to figure out and the math on this is very difficult, Jacob, but I'm just going to throw it out there. You don't have to answer it, but I just want to throw it to the point. wolves that listen to us, they will tear it apart like a dead carcass of a deer. Is the fact that if oil prices slowly rise, one thing is we already have the infrastructure in place for work from home, like globally. We didn't in 2020. You literally, many people around the world needed physical stimulus to buy video cameras or microphones or update their wireless routers, but like some dude living in Java right now, you know, like someone in the Philippines, somebody in Thailand, someone in South Korea has everything they need to work from home. And so one thing that I do want to point out is that unlike the 70s, 80s, 90s or hell 2019, unlike in any one of those points, the world I did some very preliminary back of the envelope math work. The world can shave three to five million barrels a day of demand without really missing a beat, without really needing physical stimulus. Now that's a very small amount of demand. By the way, that's like 2% of global demand can fall and the world can go on. But I just want to point that out, like if there isn't, you know, if we don't go from $90 brand to $150, if we have this smooth jazzy move up the chart, more and more people are just going to take instead of two days working from home to five. Not everybody. There's only a certain segment of the population. The United States of America, it's only 70 million out of like 400 million that can even conceivably attempt to do this. But when you scale that up to the global level, you know, it's not insignificant. It certainly does not solve the Hormuz crisis just to be clear. Yeah, I mean, there's a couple of things there. The first is, and I mean, this is just data from the last day. Yes, the ceasefire seems to be holding. And there isn't a lot of attacking going back and forth. There also aren't a lot of ships going through the straight-of-hormuz. Like not. The report I saw was seven in the last 24 hours. And none of them were carrying oil, like bound for the global market. I also have to say that the dead carcass of the deer thing, this is cousins after hours. Can we not just throw random dead deer carcasses into this? I'm sorry, shift. No, I don't. I'll try to make a sex here. Although I'll be a decent people. I have family that hunts in Mississippi all the time. I get it. I also have to say, like this idea that you can shave off, however many barrels you said, that is the most rose-tinted description of demand destruction I've ever heard in my entire life. And you're right that, you know, you and me and white, the white, whatever the white collar worker in Java is doing. I don't know what he's doing that he needs a webcam or whatever are going to be fine. But I mean, I think we are going to start talking about physical shortages. And we're already, again, this is all like, it's as if it's happening in slow motion. I mean, you've got European airlines are cutting thousands of flights and American airlines are cutting thousands of flights. And we're talking about, yeah, we talked about $4.17 for US gas. We're not even getting into diesel. We're not even getting into food and the things that are happening in other places. And then you start getting into the petrochem supply chain. I mean, listeners will think this was a joke. I mean, I was at a, I was at a tissue conference last week, tissue and toilet paper. Lack if you want papers big money. It was, it was in Miami. Like these guys are doing very well. They're worried. You can get that big, man. All the bed analogy, but you don't want to mean like, yeah, go get that paper. But they're worried because, because they're intermediate, like parts and inputs and things like that. They're concerned about all that as well. And do we really want to go back to a world where we're fighting over toilet paper and we have to stay inside all the time and. Yeah, and it's just incredible. Everything like that. So, and I think, you know, I think I get accused of Trump derangement syndrome and some of it is well earned. And I think the thing that's bothering me and it's there in that New York Times report, it's there in Besson, you know, carrying the president's water. It's there in the Wall Street Journal report and this now fascination with the shutting end of the wells, which to your point, I think is incredibly overstated. I know that president Trump retweeted, and didn't even retweet stole Rory's tweet and presented it as his own because he's a petroleum expert. But I don't, and I know I also joke that he can't do math, which I got accused of Trump derangement syndrome for that. It's objectively true. Like watch him try to do math. He can't do math. Like, I'm not, I'm not like, I can objectively prove that, but that's not the point. What I'm trying to lead up to here is I am getting the sense that the Trump administration, like this entire time, it's just we're one silver bullet away from getting the Iranians to bend the knee. We just have to get to this point and then they're going to give us whatever we want. Oh, that didn't work. Okay, it's going to be this one. And that thinking is just, I just don't think it's correct. And maybe they're smart, smarter than I. And maybe they have a sense of the pain point that I don't. But I also just keep going back. I've been rereading the prize every night when I'm putting myself to sleep. And I just reread the chapter about Anglo-Aranian and about Iran's attempt under Mossadek to nationalize Anglo-Aranian back in the early 50s. And Iran was content for its oil exports to go to zero for years just so that the British couldn't control Iranian oil. Like, you think that the Iranians are just going to bend the knee because you're going to send out truth social posts about how they have to shut in their wells. Like what? Like who, who do you think you're dealing with here? Like these are not weak people. They're not weak-minded people. It's also not Venezuela. Like Venezuela was a narco state that's barely barely existed for 200 years. You really haven't gotten it through your mind that even though the regime you're dealing with sucks and there's a bunch of theocratic ghouls, they represent a civilization that goes back millennia. Like, I just, I'm really concerned that the Trump administration like has latched onto this idea that they just have to do this one thing and Iran is going to bend. And I just don't think Iran is going to bend. And then where I think that puts us with Rory on June 1st and $200 barrel oil. I'm having trouble like not defaulting to that scenario. Well, yeah, I don't know if that's what they're doing. You know, by the way, the prize Daniel Yurkin, probably the best book, really ever written about like energy markets, oil markets. So that's the only the only other contender is is Vaklav Smills energy and civilization. Oh, any of those any of us loves Vaklav's books are really, really good as well. Yes. Look, I'm not sure that's what I think actually your TDS is giving you TDS DS. This is a special rare. Oh no, it's spreading. Okay, I just started wearing it at 95 in these podcasts. Tell me. So this is a special rare like where the TDS like swings to the other side, you know, like it's crazy. Like, so I actually think it's just simpler than that. I don't think I don't think they think there's a silver bullet. I think they're just trying to create an narrative so that when we all like declare the end to this because it's a draw the taking claim. It's a victory. You know, so I mean, that's what I read in President Trump's like tweets or whatever truths, you know, like all they call this their desperate or so that when there is a like end, oh, but they call this and I was magnanimous and so I gave it to them. And here's why here's why because it is a draw like let's you know, this is like people looking at Russia Ukraine conflict for the last three years trying to pretend like Ukraine's winning or Russia's winning. It's like, well, look at a map. It's a draw like it is what it is. It's not that the line hasn't moved guys for like three years. You know, so that conflict is a draw this conflict is a draw. Nobody wants to restart the fighting because on March 30th and I think it was March 30th. Please fact check me. You know, the Israelis hit South Paris and Iran hit the Qatar, LNG and that was kind of the end. Like that was like, oh, okay, we can actually cause the end of civilization here. So let's not do it. I see this actually as a nuclear war. I think to really frame what's going on right now, you should use nuclear weapons instead of like that will make everything simple. Like Iran and the US have nuclear weapons pointed at each other. Iran can using very simple technology take out 30% of global LNG, which will shut down the Taiwanese semiconductor plants and all the tech bros that are close with the White House will not be have anything to put into their data centers. You know, so like like both sides have illustrated that on March 30th. And so we are in a ceasefire which we think is a ceasefire, but it's actually Cold War. We have entered a Cold War between two nuclear powers. Once you put it into that perspective, everything starts to make sense Jacob. And now like the two sides just have to create enough kind of distance from the war so they can both declare a victory when the truth is kind of a draw. You know, like and the reason it's a draw and it's funny because everybody kind of knows that America got kind of pond in this. You know, like Iran used drones. Iran closed the streets even though it was my first job ever at Stratford to calculate how long Iran closed the streets for. Like this was known before. It's not like we found something new. But to me, I think there's the other side that I keep referring to on this podcast, which was kind of confirmed to me by some of my clients who went to China over the last couple of weeks. I've had several people who have talked to Chinese, mostly financial professionals, but you don't open a hedge fund in China unless you're somebody's niece or cousin. Let's just put it that way. That's not how that country works. I mean, you probably want to stand for it. You're extremely smart. Don't get me wrong. Like if you're running a Shanghai hedge fund. You are obviously smarter than me, but. You're also connected. So let's not like beat around the bush. The point is that people who have gone to China over the last couple of weeks and who have gotten Chinese perspective on this unequivocally say the China is not thrilled with this. China's not getting its ships through, which was I believe either you or somebody else, one of our cousin adjacent on X pointed out that China still has 70 vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf. They're not happy about this. I was just in an event where I was on a panel with one of the foremost China experts. And I brought up my point that like 10 years ago, you and I Jacob would be following pork prices in China if we wanted to predict protests. But oh, how quickly people have forgotten that this is a country that cares about food prices. We just forgot about that because there's been a disinflation in food prices for most of this period. What am I getting at? I'm getting at that everybody wants to talk about how America got ponded, how it's got a concede. But Iran's also has to concede because there are many countries in the world that within two to six months, they're going to forget who started this war in a calamitous and clumsy way. Like, no one's going to be blaming Pete Hexeth while they're dealing with like domestic unrest. They're going to blame Iran and Tehran. And so Pakistan's role just to kind of land this plane and then I'll let you cook. Pakistan, by the way, people just took two shots, but that's okay on our bingo card. Pakistan's role in these negotiations was always cute. You and I like praised the leadership. We're going to throw the prime minister of Pakistan on our trade value index and so on. But the truth is like we all know why Pakistan is involved. It's China that is encouraging Pakistan to be involved in this. And so I don't think that Iran can really take this forever. I don't think we can just rest in the laurels. I mean, I know I said this in Rory's podcast. So I'm kind of repeating myself, but you know, sorry, I don't have any new material other than the fact that a lot of people who either went to China or no China do confirm. Like, China's not sitting there and being like, oh, this is so sweet. We've got six months worth of oil reserves. Well, you know what? Chinese economy doesn't run on oil. It runs on a lot of other things too. Well, yeah, but I wonder if that's because they thought it would be open already by now. And to your point, yes, it's a cold war and yes, it's a draw and everything else like that. But President Trump like has shown a capacity to believe that he can declare victory at multiple points in all. I don't know exactly what he's waiting for. But to your point, maybe the, maybe the US is setting up Kid Rock is the fall guy because he's apparently flying around Apache helicopters on my tax dollars. I get I started feeling very the throwy. And when I start hearing that Kid Rock is flying on a patchy. You got to explain this. I am not aware of this. You didn't see this that Kid Rock like is like was flown in like he's like being flown on Apache helicopters like with Pete Higgs at the round because like he's a friend of the kid rock. No, the kid rocked the musician, the crazy musician. Right. No, I was just, you know, I'm a popcorn. Just kidding. Yeah, I got you. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Anyway, so he's definitely going to be the fall guy. He's going to be the one that everyone disagrees. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you have said this a few times, although I mean, it changed my life when I when I heard this. I mean, basically we all forget 90% of what we learned within the first 24 hours that we hear it. So you need to hear it again, like you need the repetition in order to get it. But you know, you said that I was I was going from TDS to TDS DS. I wanted to throw at you that maybe you have noble anvil derangement syndrome. Oh, maybe noble anvil was the US name for the NATO operation against Yugoslavia. Oh, shit. Well, I didn't even know that didn't have a name for it. I just erased it from my memory. I had to go to the official NATO operation was allied force. But the US called it noble and I'm just wondering like if you're expecting that the world is going to blame Iran because Yugoslavia was blamed by NATO. Your home country was blamed by NATO. But I don't think anybody's going to blame Iran. I think the blame is actually going. I think this is actually the biggest difference between us right now and interpreting this conflict. I think the blame is going to be with the United States. I think the world is looking around and saying, yeah, the US started this. And yes, Iran needs to open the straight. And yes, we're going to put pressure on the Iranians and we're not going to do this whole Persian negotiation in the bizarre forever and we'll use whatever leverage we have to get the Iranians to open things. But I think everybody knows exactly who started this conflict and who messed it up and who is not going to gain from it, I would say, but who is going to hurt the least from it, which is probably going to be the United States. But even then, and this is, I mean, gas at 417, Trump's approval rating, not just on the economy. His approval rating is down to 34%. He is walking straight into the trap that Biden had in 2022 and it's of his own volition and it's going into the midterms. It's just, and I guess the thing, you know, it just, what you said doesn't make me feel better because if we're still here on June 1st and we're still talking about the Cold War, then ships still aren't going through the strait of Hormuz and then life sucks. Life is not going to be good for anyone. So I mean, violent agreement with you. Like when we write, so like when we write the next month, America's going to be blamed. When we write the history of the next 10 years, America's going to be blamed. When we write the next six months, Iran is going to be blamed. Now, why do I say that? I say that because like, liches be very clear, functionally speaking, the United States of America is not closing the strait of Hormuz right now to shipping. That is not true. The blockade is focused on Iranian ships. As a consequence of Iranian blockade of ships carrying Urea so that Bangladesh can eat food. You know, so this is the thing. Like it's like if you're a doctor and a police officer and someone shoots a civilian, what are you going to do as a police officer? Are you going to chase the perpetrator or are you going to try to stop the bleeding? And the world is going to start, try to stop the bleeding. But the perpetrator who ran away, like obviously everyone's going to, once we stop the bleeding, everyone's going to focus. Like there's no escaping the blame here for the US. The long-term consequences here of what just happened is lost American prestige. It is turning to China for energy security, which I know everybody listening to this is like, how is China going to get you energy security? Well, they're going to connect some solar panels to your grid. They're going to, look at Pakistan. Look at Pakistan is getting energy right now. I mean, they're going to, they're going to upgrade your electricity. They're going to bring some EVs. They're going to bring some battery technology. Like, yeah, I'm sorry, but like, you're going to turn to China. And you know, one of the things you're going to start wondering if you're any country on the planet is like, why am I relying on the US in any way, shape, or form? Why am I, why, what's the purpose of using US treasuries as a safe haven when I can't really convert them into anything meaningful? I used to be able to, the transitive property of the US Navy, the US Navy was kind of in the middle. I hold some paper and I need some stuff who gets it for me, American Navy. Hey, this, this sea lane is plugged. That country's being mean to me. I have a hundred billion dollars of your treasuries. That's a, that's like a little get out of jail free card. That's like, let me invoke the, you know, US fifth fleet. Let me invoke the US Air Force because Milosevic is breeding down my neck. Like, though, that, that is what the quid pro quo was between the US and its allies and that's been shattered. And so I'm in violent agreement with you on the long term consequences of this. I just, I was just trying to answer the question of when does the straight open and I got to tell you Jacob, like, I just do not see masturbation in Africa or South Asia. Like, that's not going to happen and it's not going to happen because countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, China, Africa, the global South is going to tell you run. Look brother, we get it. Americans are like bad guys, but like millions of our people are going to die and we're going to have protests. So you need to open the straits. Eventually, if Iran is on the wrong side, like Iran doesn't care about America. I agree with you. The prize, the Anglo-American point, hey, you know, keep reading. I agree with you. The world's a little bit different today. Just like my point about, yeah, just my point about work from home, by the way, all I'm saying is like 2026 is different from 1973, but you know what? It's also different from 2019. And similarly, from that kind of functional point of like, hey, we can shave off three million now we're destroying the man just by adjusting it because we have the technology to do so. Similarly on the geopolitical front, like Iran, Iraq war, did anybody care if people starved in like Sub-Saharan Africa? No, because they were already starving. You know, we had like live aid concerts at the time to to prevent that. So Iran didn't care if Nigeria called. I think today they do. I think they care if Brazil calls, if India calls, definitely if India calls, shit, it's a nuclear power, you know, like if China calls. And that's where I think a lot of Americans in a weird way, especially liberal Americans, they want to blame Trump. They also want to kind of blame China. We have a China derangement syndrome too, CDS. You know, we're like, we always see China as evil. And I think that China is in the very same boat as America and he's standing there being like, yo, Tehran, like we get it. America sucks, cool, but like, I need Urea. You know, we have a portal. - For a reserve, we have strategic poor reserve, Chinese piggy bank for a reason. As my good friend, Louis Gav reminded me recently. There's a piggy bank for a reason. Like China has strategic poor reserves. Why? Because if poor prices go up, man, like it's fucking color revolution, three point up. - Yeah, well, they've done an incredible job rebuilding the herd after the African swine fever stuff from 2019. - And you know, it's better to be, by the way. You're infinitely more informed on anything that has to do with agricultural stuff, soft commodities and so on. So like, - Correctly, follow up. - One of the funniest moments I've ever, at a conference I've ever attended. This was in, I think it was in Saskatoon. This was 2019. This was pre-pandemic. And I said some, what, I called China an authoritarian system. And there was a Chinese analyst or presenter there, something like that, who did not like that I called Xi Jinping an authoritarian, which sorry, like pot calling kettle blood, like he's an authoritarian. But then like a couple of, and this person was like howundied me, was kind of like not harassing as a little too strong, but was like following me around and like wanted to have this conversation over and over and over again about how my characterization of Xi Jinping was wrong. And then this guy gave a presentation about how America, I think in conjunction with Vietnam, I think I have that right, was developing an African swine fever vaccine for poor. And not only did this person, this Chinese person not talking again, they were following that speaker around for the rest of the entire conference because they wanted information about this African swine fever, vaccine and they just couldn't get it out of them. But yeah, I mean, I take your point. I just, I think the difference between you and me is I think that, I think Iran doesn't care. I think if China calls Iran and China says, "Yeah, we really want our ships." Iran's response is, "Cool, we heard you have a meeting with the Trump guy in three weeks." Maybe you could tell him the deals off until he stops the blockade and gives us what we want. Cool? 'Cause then we're fine. We'll let the ships through. But then see, I mean, then I think the blockade comes off, right? So like this is now the problem. This is now, this is the red line, the Obama's red line, the Joe Biden's whatever. And now the Trump's blockade. Like how do you concede on that point? And I think the sole purpose of everything you've seen over the last two weeks is to figure out how the Trump administration removes the blockade and declares victory without having to first have Iran do it. Like like this is literally what it comes out to it's to boys they've crossed the streams. They're sword fighting you know what I mean with their PPs. That's what's going on. That's what's going on right now. And it's like I don't know. >> cousins after dark with their PPs. Yeah. >> Yeah, yes. It's gets get's kind of like PDD. No, others. No, dní. >> No diddy's. No, dní. >> Okay. Well, there's two different. Is there anything else you want to say about this because I'm going to move us along unless there's something else you want to run. >> You felt you felt me closing the chapter by invoking the great the chancoms. >> The great chancoms. I feel like there's two there's two directions I could take this because I want to pick up on the Russia Ukraine draw comment but I think we should stay in the region for just a moment and talk a little bit about the UAE. >> Yeah, departure from OPEC I know that we texted about it and you were like me and I turned it into a joke like a you know read to a commercial throw. I also want to say this live golf was supposed to have a tournament here in New Orleans. I believe in June. And they just had to indefinitely postpone it because the Saudis have pulled all their investment from live golf. Apparently the Saudis have something they need to do with their money more than pay Ronaldo and buy yachts now that they've been through the situation. >> I think the UAE move is kind of interesting and I don't want to step on the trade value podcast too much but this is yet another reason why MBC not going to be on my index because what are you doing bro like I understand that you want to leave OPEC and that you thought about wanting to leave OPEC for a while but you're calling in your debts from Pakistan. And you're setting up this fight with Saudi Arabia at the exact moment that it's probably important for the Arab you know for these Arab states and the Persian Gulf to be aligned as they're facing in Iran that is going to leave this conflict more empowered and probably with some level of control over the straight of hormones like I don't get what the UAE is doing to me it seems like they're making pretty big mistake or that they've gotten too big for their bridges and meanwhile I look at Saudi Arabia and I see a country. In small ways that is showing me that it's worried that is tightening its belt and saying like things are going to be a little bit more difficult right now and maybe this didn't go the way that we thought and we are starting to accommodate ourselves to the idea that we're going to be dealing with this version of the Iranian regime for some time so but you seem very unplussed by the UAE leaving OPEC so tell me why I'm making a mountain out of a mole. No, I think I think you're right to bring it up and I'm glad you did I do think it's relevant. I just think in the short term it doesn't do anything right so like. Fujira bi-pass by plan allows UAE to pump 1.8 million barrels a day I mean please if somebody knows different numbers correct me so basically the problem here is geography. UAE so first of all UAE has been cheating on their production for a very long time you know so it's not clear to me that. They ever abide by quotas and so now that they've left this cartel so OPEC is basically a cartel they manage production to keep all prices stable or higher or lower. And so it's not clear that you ever abide by those some experts including our friend Rory have said that the cheating was pretty substantive. So now they will just make that official but the second issue is that for the purposes of this crisis right now if UAE could magically get 5 million barrels. On the market that be great but their pipeline by pass only lets them do 1.8 so they're limited I think in the future though if OPEC were to dissolve and many have in the past call for the death of OPEC. But if it were to dissolve it could be a free for all that obviously lowers all prices in that that would be great. That would be great for like the consumer the American consumer wouldn't be that great for American producers by the way. Because all prices would fall significantly. Maybe I'm not here but I mean first of all I mean so going back to the prize I mean this is also in the prize like OPEC was built off of the idea of the Texas Railroad Commission. And like it was modeled after the Texas Railroad Commission and how the United States dealt with oil production. So if OPEC is going down then the United States should rise and say okay the new OPEC with all of this production coming on in the western hemisphere maybe you call the Russian I don't know like you get enough sources together so you can compete with the Saudis and build your own cartel. The notion that these oil companies in these countries are just going to let the market determine things so they can have what's happened to farmers happen to them. One of my favorite charts to show is the price of petroleum versus corn and wheat over the past 150 years corn and wheat even with the wars even with everything is just down. Because they don't have a cartel the market is setting prices and farmers grow more and people pay less and that's it. Oil is a manipulated market and we keep the price of oil high so that all these companies can get what they want like just because the UAE is going to leave and OPEC is weaker I mean that's an opening for a new cartel it looks like to me but maybe I'm too cynical. Well I think just the problem is and maybe I just don't understand the math here but like the Saudis UAE quaint Iraq they have the lowest production price. You know so it bubbles out of the ground although with the amount of spending the Saudis have their break even their actual break even your right is very very cheap but the price that they need oil at to but it's different you know that's different yeah it's different but you can issue bonds like look Saudi Arabia can issue bonds longer than this is like the invention of modern finance you don't need the actual money just just make just create bond but just hear me out here be out here be out here be out like the. The Saudis can issue bonds for longer than a Texas you know producer can stay kind of liquid and that's that I mean presumably unless I mean I've been told the technology in the old batch is getting better and better and the same with oil stands in Canada used to be $80 so basically for those of you listening to this and you're like what are you talking about. The issue here is that Saudi Arabia produces oil at you know it costs Saudi Arabia like $10 to produce a barrel and if oil prices are at 80 they capture 70 bucks so what Saudi Arabia on occasion can do is it can drop the oil price to 20 bucks the Americans in the Canadians need higher oil prices to produce oil so it bankrupts them it puts them in a hole and so I don't know how a higher cost producing producer like America would be able to then hurt the Saudis would be like oh cool you said the price at 80 well shit we're getting 70 bucks per oil barrel you know that's kind of like what's what's kind of confusing and what the Saudis have been sort of trying to do you know but I would obviously defer to other experts about this is they've been trying to kind of keep oil prices between fat 50 and 70 even though they kind of hurts their physical position but one of the reasons they want to do that is they don't want to incentivize dramatic shift towards renewables they don't want to make like they want market to be like I love Dodge Ram I want to drive it sick actually make it a heavy heat all like can the Subaru come with a heavy. So they want that. While at the same time, not keeping all prices too high, which would then, of course, spur people to start looking for oil in offshore and all sorts of other places that are more expensive. And on occasion, they have to smack American producers, Canadian producers, Nigerians, Brazilians around, with all prices at 20 or 30. So that's why Saudi Arabia has, at times of crisis, like during COVID, increased production and drove oil prices basically negative. Like they did the exact opposite of what you would have thought a cartel would do. But they wanted to impose pain on the rest of the world. So how do Americans get to control if their production cost is 50, 60, 70? And by the way, I haven't looked at it. I know technology is improving all the time. And God bless the landmen, right? Like Billy Bob Thornton and other brooding Texans. Well, obviously, I have met crushes for, if you were driving an F-250, just give me a call, right? Like those guys God bless them. Like they're getting better at their job, but it's not bubbling out of the ground. I don't know. Yeah, the only thing I'm saying, all of what you said is right. The only thing I'm saying is that if you could cobble together a group of nations who share of global production is higher than OPEX-1. I mean, an OPEX share of global production has been in decline. Oh, it's very slow. Yeah, I mean, it's like, I don't know, like I'm going to guess it's 20%. No, I think it's higher than that. It's been a minute since I looked at it. But I think it was at its peak, maybe it was 60, and now it's in the 40s or something like that. I mean, it's something like that. But if the UAE breaks off, and you're right, OPEX has always been a prisoner's dilemma. It's a classic. It's a classic prisoner's dilemma. And the Saudis have been the only, probably the only ones who have ever actually met the quote is because it's a Saudi-led cartel. They're the sort of swing boat. But if the UAE is the beginning of an Exodus, or I don't know, like I'm really probably stretching too far there. The other deeper point is just, I mean, the UAE Saudi feud is just out now. I mean, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are on different sides of multiple issues now. And this one is existential for both of them, and they just don't see eye to eye. It seems to me like the UAE wants to push against Iran, once the United States and Israel to keep going, whereas the Saudis are-- Well, see, I don't know. I don't know. They've been more complacent. I don't know how to read with them. Yeah, that would be odd. That might be it. Maybe it's the opposite. Maybe the UAE wants a deal with Iran. Maybe. To get their oil out. By the way, this is why you should be listening to the cousins, by the way, because basically, we come on this show and we just bullshit. But if you average out our views, you will be right. So I said, OPEC is 20% of the production you said 60. It's actually exactly down the middle. It's 38. 38, yeah. I said, high water mark. I think in '73, it would have been around 60. I would have-- It was 50. Yes. Now, OPEC-- OPEC Plus, if you add Russia to it-- so the OPEC Plus arrangement, which is OPEC Plus Allied non-members like Russia, it's 47% at the time. So it's 35% today. But yeah, I mean, the reason that they have-- I think the reason they can do this is because here we go. Saudi Arabia's production cost is $2 to $8 a barrel. Iran is 10 to 15. UAE is even lower. You see, Russia's cost is 15 to 25. That's interesting. United States, so Permian is 62. Oh, so he hasn't really come that much. Canada, 40 to 50. Oh, OK. But it can go as high as 75 depending on, I guess, part of the oil sense you're in. But yeah, so basically, Saudi is at $2 to $8. Iraq at 10 to 15. Iran at 10 to 15. UAE is 10. They can just lower prices if they want and beat the rest of the world into submission. OK, anything else to say about UAE, OPEC or anything else like that? Well, one thing that I do worry about is UAE and Saudi relationship is important. And just like-- I mean, that's an obvious statement. But we kind of focused on whether that breaks the cartel or not. But I also worry on a much deeper level. These two countries have had significant border disputes in the past. It's broken. The relationship is broken. I mean, they're on the opposite sides in Yemen. They're on opposite sides in Sudan. They're apparently on opposite sides of this conflict. They're on opposite ends of the dealings with Pakistan. I mean-- Well, we don't know. But see, we don't know, like, I at least I don't. Maybe I'm just ignorant. But I do think that where this could get really weird, OK? Really weird, is if this is-- and this is a complete speculation, I have no insider knowledge of this. At all, zero. But let's say one of the two countries wants a deal with Iran to get his ships through and will pay to toll. And the other one just said, well, I'm not going to play along with that anymore. That would be weird. Because not only are you then, you know, like these two countries to share a border that are very close to each other, not only are there suddenly, like, at odds of each other. But also, it puts them at odds with the US. One of the two may be starting to skirt into a frenemy zone. If you make a deal with Iran without Americans, like, what does that make you? I don't know. I just know that I can't imagine it being the UAE. I mean, they're also the same ones that were negotiating currency swap line to secure dollar liquidity as of last week. Like, that was the big UAE story last week. But I don't know. Like, there's just a lot of uncertainty around it. Because I don't want to bring all the beers to the six pack if you want, although I have a list of stuff. No, please. I want to just keep you about-- I've had a lot of travel and I'm all six backed out. So-- OK, well, I had an hour to prep. So I actually have some things like-- you're in charge. OK, well, then next, do you talk about how Russia Ukraine is a draw? I don't think it's a draw anymore. I would argue that Ukraine is winning right now and one of the most interesting things that came across my desk this week. I don't know if you saw this. Let me get the official thing up here right now. Was a poll in Russia now hold your laughter? I know that we don't actually care about polls in Russia. I actually do. But I actually do. Yes, I do. Did you see this one about a state-backed polar? Let me get the exact name up here. Yeah, I mean, it's-- I don't know how to pronounce this. It's VTS-I-O-M, whatever that is. Anyway, so their largest state-run polling service has recorded a 12.2 drop-- a 12.2% drop in Vladimir Putin's approval since January. The steepest decline since 2022 and is approval rating falling to 65.6%. I'm a loser. I mean, that's pretty bad if you control everything. No, no, of course. I agree. This is why people who-- I use Russian polls all the time-- sociologia, levada. Why? Because so does the Kremlin. Why do you think people who do these polling are alive and not in a vat of acid? It's because the Kremlin uses them as well. So yes, you're absolutely right. To look not at the level, so 62% means nothing. But the fact that it dropped does probably mean it did drop. Well, I mean, I agree with you for the most part. But that was steep enough and surprising enough that part of me-- there's a small part of me that is thinking in the back of my head, OK, did they just get bold enough to actually tell the truth about something that the Kremlin doesn't want to be known particularly well? Because this is not a country in recent history that has wanted an approval rating for Putin that is anything less than not quite North Korea levels. But not that low and not declining that precipitously. I'm wondering if somebody's about to get their head chopped off because they felt like they could say something about what Russians are thinking about the combination of war fatigue and degraded oil export capacity and falling approval and everything else. Look, I think you're absolutely right to point this out. And I use LaVada polling for most of my career, which is now actually 20 years. So we're getting old, Jacob. And the poll is-- My protein-- it's my protein magazine. It's not really. It looks vaccine. You're going to be like, clavicular. That's next. It starts with protein-maxing. Then you become clavicular. But look, you could have basically plotted every time Putin's popularity dipped below 50%. And LaVada used to-- or not, it was the Russian government used to dip below 50. Putin never did. But you could actually see these dips and then predict military action by Russia. Russia exports its domestic instability. And actually, right before Russian invaded Ukraine, the great cardinal circle-- by the way, I don't know if you know this, it is a Hollywood movie coming out about Syracov. I didn't know. I don't know. And by the way, if anybody-- the Kremlin listens to our podcast, it'll be Syracov. Because he's-- he's-- you know, like-- They're not-- They're not-- I spent some time in Moscow before the pandemic. And my friends in Moscow don't answer my emails anymore. But if you are listening, I miss you guys. Like, right to me. Come on the podcast, please. Listen, if anybody listens to and gets all the basketball and hip-hop references, it is Syracov. But so he wrote that. the sop at right before rushing to Ukraine and he basically and by the way he's been like I think under house arrest or something happened by the way for those of you who don't know this Google Circumstance like this really interesting guy is basically like a marketing he's like he is like John Ham in madman but for the Kremlin it's an incredible story of a guy who invents an ideology and an image of what Russia's going to be and what Putin's going to be and they he falls out with the Kremlin I'm not really sure why when the war started but one of the things he did before the war I don't think he thought a favor for this but he very honestly wrote this op-ed in which he was like yeah we're going to obviously pay you great like we need to we need to export our domestic like problems and like don't blame us you people in the west you do this all the time you know he reference how americans did the same so is a very matter of fact guy bathing a lufan difference so I guess I have some kinship with him in that way but what was interesting about him is that you know that logic that he expressed in that op-ed is is actually and I think it was only written in russian so I don't think like it was really translated widely even transmitted but that is a real thing and so I do worry a little bit that you know you might look at the stalemate in ukraine and also the drop in polling of Putin and say well they got to wrap this up the way you would with trump trump is got to wrap up the wrong conflict because his popularity is coming down in russia it's kind of the opposite like if you want world peace you want Putin to be loved you know you want him to feel safe I do worry that this might force russia to pivot and they did pivot in 2015 very elegantly they went from fighting nazis in ukraine to saving christian them in syria remember that and like twenty fourteen twenty fifteen they they got their asses kicked in route in ukraine before they got held at mullipot i always uh. mispronounce this uh. they got you know held by azo battalion in mario pol i think i'm mispronounce it again i apologize and then they were just suddenly like all the nazis don't matter like let's go over to syria where the sslame state that was created by americans and americans have abandoned the responsibility to defend the west well we will and so they started supporting basha al-Assad in his efforts to combat the slumic state and various other enemies so that pivot in twenty fourteen twenty fifteen was quite elegant he was supported by uh. the massive crambling pr machine which is the state television they just stop talking about all the bad things ukraine is we're going to russia speakers uh. i wonder if something similar might be needed this time around given what you just said yet i was looking at me levada got into some trouble a couple of years ago their approval rating for putin um. in march twenty twenty six i was just looking while you were talking was it eighty percent also a small decline but like those numbers have been between eighty and ninety percent uh. for the uh. leadership of the waters they use the new methodology a new statistical like yeah tool but yes go on but no but to your point this state on polling institution that i'm talking about it's the all-russian public opinion research center i mean their polls have been consistently below what levada and some of these other polling agencies are so maybe they are just part of the the overall spectrum of what's normal i don't know it just it seemed a little bit weird to me that somebody was willing to say that his approval had gone that low and that it was declining that precipitously and i i don't think that it like i wasn't interpreting it that it would force putons hand in any meaningful way i was more thinking of it is is it like a progojan breadcrumb is this is this a little sign of weakness in the facade of the strength that is there and are the oligarchs or is the millichar they finally turning to put in and being like okay times up bro like you are doing the exact thing that you were put in place and which you very successfully avoided for decades but like you are causing the type of chaos uh. that you came into stop after the whole yeltsin air and everything else that happens so but i might be reading too much well i think that you and i are like over seven on that forecast so i will just elegantly pivot towards the next six back the next thing back yet uh. and this will not be a great we're all dramed at the free throw line here you know what i mean like puton display like hack a shack on us he's like hack a jayke of hack a mark uh. it'll have a lot of the if it'll happen uh. all the all the except who like he's harvesting the organs of young children so that he can live forever like you know so screw my protein maxing he's like getting the heart of a fourteen year old uh. transplanted in this but i i wish luca would do that so we can fucking have the playoff start but yeah you're doing fine you're like you're up three one like you got a cushy little uh. you know got kd like kd's legacy just going down the toilet bowl man yes yes just retire like is kd but it was sorry sorry i didn't mean to swear to the basketball i don't know which which leader is kd like who has so a leader that continues to get jobs but every single job he's bad at who was the guy in georgia who then like showed up in ukraine was at suckishvili he just kept on showing up places trying to become leader so i thought about this i mean kd somebody who will get your wins in the near term although he didn't in phoenix i mean let's not forget they miss the playoffs um but then like is bad for your team in the long term like you just leaves devastation everywhere he leaves except for gold stake because they had a good culture but like who is a leader who's like good short term badlock term i mean it could be mad bench of india and you know let's just be very clear like kd's gonna end up being the top 10 basketball player in the world he he will maybe not top 10 but like look he's top 20 for sure he's gonna be number two on the list of most points court so like if you talk about like he's in the pantheon of grades and yet he's left like four teams in complete state of long term decline yeah i can't think of the right leader in algae and maybe our listeners can help but i'm sort of that he's he's sort of has become and it's in a very different way and in not as endearing away but he's almost become the dentist rodman of his own era which is he only works if he's if he's playing with michael jordan scottie pipin and they can rain in all of the bad cultural stuff that rodman's gonna do to your team or if you're playing with isa and you know rick mahorn and those guys on the pistons but like zen rodman somewhere else he's just gonna mess everything up because he's absolutely crazy i mean to rant looks toxic for team culture like all the burner stuff and uh you know he wants to play with kairi he doesn't want to play with kairi he likes hard and he doesn't like hard and he wants to go to phoenix he doesn't like phoenix i mean he just he just can't find any happiness in his life i mean he he he he he he he he doesn't suffer fools right that's what he wants us to think that's what he wants us to think he wants to play beautiful basketball team basketball he doesn't suffer fools but like all about the art of the game yeah the art like yeah and it's he's like a poet you know like an artist and it's like okay but like you did pick the team in you jersey uh sorry in brooklyn like brooklyn that's where your like team you pick the coach you did everything to get that team to look the way it did and then you quit on it in phoenix you didn't really pick that team but like it was a disaster and in houston you didn't elevate these young guys who are so young so young so impressionable and you're calling them the r-word on on x like i don't know man like it's it's a bad look it's a bad look the only so so basically the only team you comfortable playing on is the one with three hall of famous like when he doesn't even like them because they took credit for what should have been this champion when he was really a fast league oh and then like drape on greed was mean to you you know like yeah you get into shouting matches with your colleagues man grow up like anyways i you know again it is somebody that for the long term you do give up a lot to get Kevin the rent and so you suffer a long term and in the short term you might get a little bit of a boost but like actually even that has it really worked out in the last and that's the way he gutted okc like you know like blue that that playoff series against the warriors and then that caused them to just turn around and join the warriors i mean oh yeah there are lots of problems but all respect to westbrook because like the dude kept trying harpsett harpsett hey listen i'm on team westbrook uh but that's because like i just love his documentality one thing that i will say though is like you know kd was like one inch away from right like beating the milwaki box that you're and probably going through the finals yeah well so and then and then we've got you know a completely different narrative and by the way you mentioned this obviously pilsimans allordid saviour he's really good at these uh what was it revolving door moments sliding doors sliding doors sorry so yeah we got to do that for geopolitics 100% so dear listeners sliding door moments in geopolitics what that's based on is like if kavid d'arrant hits the three over the box you know he has a chance at actually getting your chip without steve kuri um that was the year the bucks i think won the championship maybe fact check me of that i think it was wasn't i think it was yeah so you know they played you know a pretty it pretty flawed phoenix sunsteam that actually used uh you know that actually had uh aton playing a very important role yeah i i was really rooting for that team because like russillo i love cp3 and I wanted CP3 to get his ring. But before you said about Durant and the one inch, where we're getting off track here, 'cause we usually save this for the end, but I'll just say, you know, Durant can tell his, I was gonna say he can tell his grandchildren about how he was one inch away from doing it all himself, but he's not gonna have grandchildren, 'cause he's a morose, mouth content that spends his time with burner accounts. So he can just, you know, tell the world via his burner accounts that he was a one inch away and great, like sour grapes, man, you know, who wasn't one inch away. Michael Jordan and LeBron James and all these dudes that you're trying to compare yourself to. - Ooh, just be quiet, just go away. - Holy shit, that's like smoke. I'm not going after Katie, that hard, man. I don't wanna be at his burgers, you know? 'Cause he's probably listening to this. - I hate him. - By the way, he's probably listening to this of all there'd be a players, like the one thing that I respect Katie for is he's probably listening to this in stewing or somebody will forward it to him and he will care enough to be like, man, what the fuck do you guys know? - Oh, I can't wait. I can't wait to be called Blog Boy by him. This is the real Silky Johnson persona coming out. The player-hater's ball of 2026, Kevin Durant is my first target. Okay, two other things before we close it off and these are probably short. The first is that right before we went on, the US Department of State released this joint statement in support of Panama's sovereignty with the US Bolivia, Costa Rica, Guiana, Paraguay and Trinidad and Tobago. Quite an illustrious list. It's a fairly short statement. By the way, I'm imagining like, you know, the bests in his out there talking about Iran and Trump's out there talking everybody's sorry about Iran and Rubio's just like sitting there, twiddling his thumbs, waiting for Cuba, waiting for all this stuff he wants to do. Anyway, so Bolivia, Costa Rica, Guiana, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago, the United States walk into a bar. Standing together in our shared mission to secure our hemisphere, reaffirm that the freedom of our region is non-negotiable. We are monitoring with vigilance, China's targeted economic pressure and the recent actions that have affected Panama flagged vessels. These actions are a blatant attempt to politicize maritime trade and infringe on the sovereignty of our nations in our hemisphere. Any attempts to undermine Panama's sovereignty are a threat to us all. There's a little bit more there. I mean, is that Marco Rubio calling out China and saying that, hey, China, if you keep on pressuring Panama, we might be screwing with your ability to go through the Panama Canal. Like are we shifting gears to another choke point in the world? I don't know, but I sat up in my chair when I read it. I hear that a lot. I hear that about Malacca because Indonesia just signed an overflight deal with America. Oh, yeah. LOL. Look, guys, I mean, unfortunately, I think this is just like people who discovered like naval choke points yesterday. And they're like, where are some other ones? Like, look, yeah, Panama and Malacca, like they matter. But if like, if China needs something from Argentina or Brazil, it will just go the long way around. It's fine. The McEllen Straits are no longer like the graveyard of like sailboats. I don't know. I'm not-- No, no, I agree with you. It's nothing like corn mousse. Although if oil goes to 200 a barrel, like that longer trip is going to cost a lot more. One of the reasons the Red Sea disruption wasn't so bad was because oil was so cheap. So yes, it took a couple of weeks to reroute ships around Africa. But price-wise, it wasn't that big of a difference. That's going to start changing, by the way, if oil is going to stay sort of this height in there. I don't know. I mean, how much-- I'm just talking about like in the context of the US and China are supposed to be making a grand bargain here in the couple of weeks. And here's Marco Kissinger Rubio out there just pushing paper saying, hey, we're standing up for Panama against this Chinese aggression. Like if you're the Chinese leadership, are you just like, oh, a little Marco, put out another little pamphlet? Or are you looking at the Trump administration and being like, hey, call off your attack dog over here. I thought we had a deal here. I thought we were doing something in a couple of weeks. Why are we reading about how we're doing something wrong to you in Panama? The timing on that is just a little bit weird. I think you're right. Now, everybody I've talked to who is in the nose, supposedly. The deal between China and the US is pretty much done. So it will be interesting if it isn't. That would turn this year very upside down, I think. By the way, and it's funny because I think one of the things that like, you know that old sprite commercial image is nothing. Thirsty is everything by sprite. By the way, I still can't get over the fact that sprite isn't green. (laughing) Yeah, me too, when I was a kid, I thought seven up and sprite was 100%. But like that's like, you should flip that when you think about the Trump administration. Like, image is everything. And the reason I say that is that a lot of these machinations that like the Trump administration wants like the Twitterati and the geopolitical armchair strategists to be connecting the 5DS dots for them. So that when they end up getting a deal with China, that does not much, they can say, aha, we got a brilliant deal because it was, you know, all this posturing and all this like potential leverage and so on. But I don't think there is any real leverage. At least not any new leverage. America's always had a ton of leverage on China when it comes to maritime transport because he has a big or navy that's spread out over, you know, more choke points than China does. I don't know. I didn't have a whole lot to say there. I just like you have been at the front of the US-China deal and I've come around to your thinking and I'm sort of expecting it and like, it would be significant if something caused that deal even to be delayed like in the next couple of weeks because I'm thinking that that's what's happening and that's maybe the one saving grace to me for what's happening in the straight-up or moves because if the United States and China are on the same page, I guess I'm sort of, I'm doing that thing where I agree and disagree at the same time. If the United States and China are on the same page, pretty hard to imagine the straight-up or moves stays completely closed. Like you would think that the straight-up or moves would have to be open for Beijing and Washington to be dealing with each other in a productive manner. Maybe? I think this is a big deal and we should spend more time on it, you know? You know, like it's, but not now, like necessarily it's late, it's the late hour. But like I do think that your frustration about having to do Iran every time is not just because of boredom. I mean, for those of you who listen to this, like we do have other things to cover. The China-US deal is potentially of epic proportions, both if it goes the way that I've thought it would since before Trump was elected. Or if it doesn't, because I think right now, it's the consensus view that it will go, that it will land the plane. - Okay, we'll close out. We'll come back to China and the US maybe in our next episode that isn't a trade value index. But just to close it out, and this is also probably a short one. I love that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney decided to make this announcement at the steam locomotive hall at a science and technology museum in Ottawa. But he announced yesterday that Canada will create a sovereign wealth fund and will pool money together to make investments, to make the Canadian economy less dependent on the United States. If there were any other leader in the world right now, I probably wouldn't take it seriously, but Mark Carney is the one guy with the chops to actually put together a sovereign wealth fund and Canada, sitting on lots of the types of natural resources that you need in order to create an actual sovereign wealth fund. (knocking) Oh, who's there? - Wait, I hear someone knocking. - Who's there? Who is it? - Jacob, I hear that I'm irritating you. Some people say you're the most irritating person in the world. Not me, I would never say that, but some people say that, but I heard earlier in the podcast, earlier you said I already did you. Now you're saying that Mark Carney is the only person that had to wear with the chops, the chops to put together a sovereign wealth fund. Did you not forget that my administration did that last year? Some people, I'm not gonna say, I'm not, I'm not gonna say who? Jacob, but we know there were some people that could put that here. - I'd like my subscription to Trump's stakes now, Mr. President, can you get back on that or did that go belly up and so on from now on? - You're giving, listen, Jacob, Jacob, Jacob, Jacob, I'm sorry. You're giving credit to Mark Carney, he's good. I like Mark, he's a good looking man, good looking, but you know, they've been taking us for a ride to those Canadians, and I know your friend Mark, who doesn't have TDS, and I love him for it. But he is kind of Canadian. We're gonna have to fix that, Mark, you know? - Oh, sir, like no problem, for sure. - Yeah, we're gonna have to fix, you know? But my point is, now here we are on April 28th, 20th, 26th, and you're giving Mark Carney all the credit. All the credit, you know what? Jacob, we're gonna have the best economy. We have the best economy. We have the best military, and nobody gives me credit. They said that I couldn't do it, but I did, And it's okay, you go ahead. You know, I'm gonna let you guys. go back. It's late. It's late. I got to go back to Fox News. I just wanted to say I find it the little hippo hippo top of most that you are giving Mark Cardi the credit. And that. Well, Mr. President, I thank you for spending some time time with me this evening. I know your time is precious. Get back to that diet. And I want my stakes. Like where are my stakes? Like I need them. So anyways, I just thought that was that was interesting. First of all, um, I just even practicing. I mean, you know, like, uh, who me? No, I was President Trump. But I know what you're talking about. Sorry. Sorry. Yeah. I need to. I need to. I'm enjoying this. As mentioned of disbelief. Yeah. No, I think it's a great idea for Canada to have a sorrowful fund. I mean, a couple of things Australia has a sorrowful fund effectively called a future fund of Australia. And it was a product of a couple of privatizations. You know, so they had a big exits, as we would say, in the industry. But it was also combined with steady surpluses in the early 2000s. So I mean, last time I checked Canada doesn't have a budget surplus. So, you know, like this would have to be something that is like the issue bonds for. I think on the other hand, what Canada does have is a really strong pension fund, like pension fund system. Uh, the maple seven is their cold. And so, you know, I'm not even really sure that it needs a federal sovereign wealth fund. Um, but if I were to pick a country in the developed world, so a developed economy that has more need for infrastructure development, I don't think I could find one. And so anything that helps develop Canada's infrastructure, I'm all for it. Whether that's just like issue bonds and building stuff or issuing bonds to create a sorrowful fund that then finances and leverages up and build stuff. I think it's awesome. And a little preview into perhaps the trade value, you know, location for Mark Cardi in our trade value index, maybe a little teaser that you're doing there, Jacob. Like, I just want to say, like, I, maybe this is a little preview in the trade value, uh, podcast that's coming up, but, um, I do think that, yeah, starting a sovereign wealth fund. I'm not quite sure on the all the details, but I haven't really spent a lot of time on it. I think it's a good idea. Canada needs a lot of infrastructure development. I think Mark Cardi is checking all the boxes of an absolute and utter franchise player. He is. And, uh, I mean, to your point, like, this is light on details, um, where's the money going to come from? That's the operative question. I can already hear the Canadian skeptics, like, writing into us and being like, I can't believe that you gave this air time. Like, there's no plan here. He's just talking about doing something that's crazy. But this is why I'm saying, like, my carny has a career, like doing this in the financial world. I think he's got some plans. Uh, I think to your point about bonds, like, getting, he's, he definitely was suggesting that individual Canadians should invest in this. So maybe he's trying to play on that Canadian nationalism and he's going to create some money. Maybe he's seeing, you know, commodities and, and where prices are going and what Canada can do here for the next couple of years. Like, I don't think he would be doing this if he didn't think that there was a path for it. And I think he's at least earned a little bit of, uh, he's at least learned the benefit of my doubt. Like I'm, I'm similarly impressed. So, but, okay, but we're just going to ignore President Trump's intervention in our podcast. And he is pretty coach and point that when America suggested this, we all kind of universally pooped it though. Like I just, well, I mean, uh, I mean, America is sovereign wealth fund has the same problem as, um, as Canada's, uh, so where is this surplus money coming from? And Mr. Trump is in. Did and all the other. I also have a little bit of, fork knocks. We don't even know what's in there. Aliens spacecraft. Gold. Fingers. And, you know, he wants to monetize federal assets. Like I guess he's going to, he's going to start selling off Yellowstone National Park in order to get this. And like the actual investments that the United States is making just look like bad investments to me. But your point is taken. And by the way, like I have, you know, I'm often challenged, check up, say one nice thing about the Trump administration called President Trump. I actually, that your plan to put money into the investment accounts of children, um, born, I forget if it starts in 25 or 2026, like amazing. Do more of that shit. Like that is the shit you are. Team Jacob is with you on all of that. I wish you would spend more time thinking about your sovereign wealth fund, uh, then on your blockade of the straight of war moves. Like great. Like I'll give you all the credit, just like maybe focus on what you said you were going to do rather than like taking a stake in some ridiculous prayer earth company that nobody's ever heard of. Like I think we can do a little bit better. It's my only particular. All right. All right. Anything else? Anything we miss? I think we nailed it. Uh, we have not covered the NBA playoffs, uh, for those of you in the middle of our vent diagram between basketball and geopolitics. We apologize, but of course there's a war going on. So we've been on a different schedule. Um, and also we have been promising. I just want to say the trade value index of global leaders that is being cooked. It's being worked on and we've got some special plan for all of you probably next week. Jacob, I think. Yeah. I think that's safe to, safe to promise. Yeah. Cool. Why not? And that's for the, I mean, I don't have anything to say about the NBA playoffs other than where was this version of CJ McCollum when he was on the Pelicans? Like nice of you to suddenly show up against the New York Knicks, but like we could have used you like when, when we were trying to do something here in New Orleans. Um, and yeah, I mean, it's hard for me to watch the timber wolves do this to yokets yet again, but what can you do? It's not over yet. It's not over yet. It's it's, it's, you know, I think the fat Serbian is singing. I think it's, let's see. Let's see how operation noble and bull works out this way. When, when Julius Randall, you, you're F 35 is grounded, my friend. You're using, you're using very chunky aircraft. That's true. They are the, yeah, I don't know. I'm like, I actually like Randall. Listen, I like Randall. I just, I'm old school. I played in the post on my life. I just wish he would like take, like he looks like Anthony Mason, like bodywights, just go down in the post. God, God bless his old to me. But like, you know, when, when I see like Julius Randall and do's like him, take a step back three, I just, I don't know. I'm like Charles Barkley that way. Like I just, I just want him to go and just like, you know, just put your shoulder into somebody like Rui Hachi Muras and I going to hold you in the paint. Yeah. Um, and just because listeners really liked my Charles Barkley impersonation, just let's close the podcast with a shout to those big women. San Antonio. Lay off the churros guys. All right, cheers.