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Speaker 6Welcome to the favorites presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours. We are an Action Network podcast. I'm your host, Brandon Kravitz, joined by the First Lady, Kendra Middleton. Emerson Lotse will be joining us in a bit. Week five, full breakdown. Preview our five official plays, two and three in the contest last week. We'll see if we can get back to our winning ways or just any winning ways, Kendra. Any winning ways we'll do at this point.
Speaker 7Yeah, I feel decent, but at the same time, I have no reason to feel decent. So we'll just, you know what? It's in God's hands.
Speaker 6Exactly. Let Jesus take the wheel. Let's talk about the Eagles for a moment before we get to our card and Evan's trends. They are falling apart at the seams. Lane Johnson announced his retirement. Stephen A. Smith has done four podcasts about it at this point. And Cam Juergens has been traded. Saquon Barkley is out. I like the angle that you sent in our group chat yesterday. Let's not worry about London. Let's worry about what happens after the fact. Nick Sirianni, his seat has to be scorching. All of the turmoil, all of the Jalen Hurts regression, all of the coordinators that they've run through the last few years. I would just be surprised at this point if he makes it through the season. So I don't want to steal your thunder here. What's the way to back this?
Speaker 7I texted you guys yesterday that if we were going to get in on the Sirianni firing, it had to be now or never. We know how he will do it. But the thing is, is that their schedule gives them some better odds of this happening coming up than I would have anticipated at the beginning of the season. Obviously, I'm not sure which version of the Eagles we're going to get this week. We're going to talk about this later when we preview this game. I just I'm unsure if we're going to get them punting on the season or a version of the Eagles that feels like underdogs right now that's going to overperform. But the thing is, you can't really fire someone after a London game because the excuse of travel and whatnot. The Panthers game is who they have next on deck. Panthers coming off of a buy. It is in Philly. But after that, they have three consecutive divisions. They have three consecutive divisions. They have three games, which if you don't go at least two and one through those divisional teams against potentially a really injured Jaden Daniels, if he stays healthy this week, obviously, they're not going to have a healthy Giants team that they're going to play. So I think the window is the value is not going to get any better. If this is something you like, like me and Kravitz, it's really, truly now or never. And I know that there are other coaches, but those coaches don't have one, I think, owners who are as willing and able to fire as the Eagles do. Or they have other excuses that factor into why they're not performing, i.e.
Speaker 6Dan Quinn. And that is the part of this that I think does need to be looked at before you go fire away. But part of the reason that we like it is because of how aggressive the Eagles are, as opposed to some of these other organizations. I mentioned this on one of our last podcasts and talking to people that cover the Buccaneers. This is just not something the Bucs do. The Bucs didn't fire Greg Sciano in the middle of the season, and he was a joke. So Todd Bowles is a heavy favorite to be the first coach fired. He's not going to be. At least it's not likely. D'Amico Ryans, I worry about a little bit. They're 0-4. If they lose to the Titans, I think there could be a surprise there. He's pretty low on the board, but just looking around, Aaron Glenn still feels too new. Sirianni, it's the most likely candidate, 8% right now, to be the first coach fired.
Speaker 7Yeah, the thing with Todd Bowles for me is that now he has the excuse of the quarterback. So I don't know if he's going to be the first coach fired. I don't know if he's I think that that also buys him some time in that conversation. I can't agree with you about D'Amico just because you can't fire a guy who's performed as well as he has through his first few years in the league, who's getting off to an 0-4 start with a lot of injury issues, especially now that the injury issues are piling up. I do agree about the Titans. I think the conversation starts after the Titans, but if they are going to do it, I also don't think that they're a team who's going to until after the year is over.
Speaker 6I don't want to see Dan Quinn lose his job. There's something about
Speaker 7they like. Stop. Stop. No. Matt LaFleur would be
Speaker 6another one and Jim Harbaugh. Keep an eye out for him if the Chargers lose again. They could just clean out the entire staff at that point. All right, Evan, the floor is yours. Welcome to the show. We've got two-minute trends here. Do you like the Nick Sirianni angle first and foremost?
Speaker 8I think it's just too short at the moment. I think this would have been something to look into if you didn't like the Eagles. I just think now it kind of doesn't matter. I think the more interesting one is LaFleur. I think it's kind of fascinating with that game at home. If they just got blown out by a backup, but again, hard to see them firing him. But I think this year, very fascinating market. So something I'm kind of watching week to week. All right, the three trends I am looking at, and then I'll give you a fun bonus one. Six plus point favorites this season, 15 and six straight up, but just six, 13 and two against the spread would be the worst start for those bigger favorites since 2010. So not your best start. And six outright losses already through four weeks, which is intriguing. Kind of in the same vein, teams who entered the season with a double-digit win total this year so far, facing teams not in that group, 17 and 11 straight up, 11 losses, but seven, 19 and two against the spread. Second worst start, ATS last 20 years for those double digit win totals this early in the season. And then this final one, division dogs. You had mentioned it before a little bit with home, but if you just look overall nine and eight straight up division dogs above 500 straight up, but 12 and five against the spread third, third best start since the merger against the spread best in 2010. And it's just the second season above 500 straight up through four games. So division dogs, bad teams, big favorites, just not the best start early in the season. And then this is just a fun one. I've seen a few of those. Uh, bet labs has used it as well, but as a three plus point favorite Drake may 14 and O straight up in his career, no losses and minus three and a half this week. The other one, which is just ridiculous. If you look at that stat three plus point favorites, Bo Nix is 16 and one. Um, but he's also on the road here. So you have a little bit of a, uh, contradicting situation. I think he's two and 10 ATS last 12 in his road starts. And you can look at the numbers. They're - Those are the trends of the week. - Evan, I have a question. - All done, Evan.
Speaker 7i texted our group chat yesterday and i probably should have texted you privately and i'm not sure if this is something that you've looked into but does it feel to you without obviously available analytics unless you can pull them up quickly that there have been more players with two touchdowns per game this season and like compared to other years like we were texting about this it feels like every major player has at least a two touchdown game and even some of the like quieter players like cody white has had a two touchdown game like it it just feels like this is and maybe this is a recency bias thing after watching thursday night football but it just it feels like a lot i can 110
Speaker 8check this for you it's just not going to be as fast as at this moment i will say you can pin it for next week that's on me yeah yeah betting in fantasy football does always tell me that i feel things uh stronger than maybe they had in the past because just because it's thrown in my face all the time but something i can easily look
Speaker 7up we can pin this for next week
Speaker 6that it's definitely happening if is it happening more than in previous seasons is something i'd be really up in the up in the air about but i did pull some of the names that have done it already this season and have done it multiple times guys like jameer gibbs and kenneth walker and derrick henry and uh jsn like we've seen the stars have really shined bijan robinson is another one and what's crazy too is that meat is being left on the bone because and this has been a big story this week the referees are out of control 17 touchdowns have been called back due to offensive penalties so there's there's actually a higher ceiling here for i don't know about the double touchdowns but there's at least a higher ceiling for touchdowns evan before we cut you loose one of the games i know we're going to discuss here as could we discuss all of them is the game in london the line has moved four points from the open jacksonville seven and oh ats is a favorite of three plus points since last season began but is it too late to back the jacksonville jaguars with that sort of movement yeah so
Speaker 8i'll just give you one blanketed stat this uses my data plus bet labs's data but to me this was the easiest way to try to comprehend this type of line movement so if you look at our look ahead data we had the eagles before lines came out before we knew anything about this matchup is minus one and a half in this matchup so that was the line that we had before we knew anything about this matchup so that was the look ahead line jacksonville now sitting minus seven and a half so you're at a full nine point move so the note i put into my primer was this whether it's cluster injuries or season results line movement hasn't helped teams in the past when a team doesn't start a backup quarterback so you've got jalen hurts out there but still sees their line gets six plus points better from the look ahead to closing line which this is at nine already they are just 8 and 50 straight up and 1938 and one against the spread versus the closing number over the last four seasons so this week this is the eagles and based off the closing lines it could be the packers but right now that's sitting at five and a half and it could be the chargers which is at exactly six points at the moment so obviously some line movement uh dictating results a little bit but either way it would definitely be the eagles considering where we
Speaker 6are wow evan you were in your bag with that one that was really good evan abrams ladies and gentlemen go and check out the primer on action network and actionnetwork.com more of the favorites coming up are nominated plays and vetoes used with expert precision but first a word from
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Speaker 9hey this is james from raiders of the lost podcast we've learned over and over on our show while talking to people in entertainment that success comes when you bet on yourself how many times have we talked to an actor who took a big risk with a challenging role because they believed they could pull it off well it's a lot easier to take those risks when you've got the practical stuff covered and that's what geico does so well imagine an actor driving to set to film the scene that's going to win them an oscar they're focusing on the scene they're focusing on the scene they're not on dealing with managing an insurance claim because geico is handling that and they don't even expect a shout out in the acceptance speech geico provides peace of mind and they'll do the same for you maybe it's not an oscar-winning performance maybe it's building a career starting the business you've dreamed about or just taking care of your family whatever you're betting on geico will make sure you're covered learn more at geico.com time to
Speaker 6welcome back our special guest picker and host of the show geico's best friend and host of the show geico's best friend and host of the show we're one of our faves the one and only emerson latzia the face of draft kings the mustard to our glizzy what's up my friend what's up
Speaker 10dude just being basic sipping on my what is this yeah it is it's a psl but but for the guys on top for my for my brothers in christ watching this is pumpkin protein cold foam yeah that's right oh he likes
Speaker 7the protein cream on top yes daddy i can't believe
Speaker 6starbucks got people to pay extra for protein that was talk about just having all of us over a barrel now we go to starbucks for our protein hold on
Speaker 10it is one of my wives like she has a lot of complaints about me but one of her biggest ones it's like i'm a marketer's dream like i will i will fucking fall for anything you could sell me anything and so once they were like yo we're putting protein or cold foam i'm like don't want fucking done not to be a conspiracy
Speaker 7theorist but starbucks and duncan are actually now just banks with their app combined there is any like over a billion with a b dollars pre-loaded into their apps well you know
Speaker 6what i believe america bank of america should start selling coffee then
Speaker 7let's catch
Speaker 11up just pick
Speaker 7something already if you don't like it you can just veto it
Speaker 6we got two teams on by this week no chiefs no panthers so we'll keep them off to the side i decided to do the responsible thing today and review the contest lines before we started yapping about them on the podcast and i just want to throw this out there before we go game by game the falcons who are the sunday night game against the ravens are plus two and a half in the contest so should we just take the freebie and throw them in before we even get because it's the last game and i i feel as though it would be a mistake to not just take the free dub and and if we get to five before we get there then there would be a i think we should talk about it okay let's talk let's talk this out let's talk it out yeah well let's start with thursday night football then we'll get there there's there's a nice tease for you to hang till the end bucks cowboys in dallas dallas laying eight and a half total at 47 and a half the buccaneers have lost four one score games they are minus 20 in terms of point differential that's the fifth you for an own four team of all time but is it enough for us to get to the window on jaylen daniels do we dare kendra i do kind of like
Speaker 7the bucks they were someone i was gonna nominate but wanted to talk to you guys about it just because the number feels really inflated for and i get that it's a backup quarterback but the cowboys defense does suck they're coming off of a huge you know people i talked about this last week a lot of people who are you know probably more casual football fans don't see the cowboys and houston being rivals but it is an in-state rivalry like that's a game that people get up for because people in texas take texas seriously and i think that it's a good spot to buy on the bucks right now just because at the end of the day we talk constantly about how there are really good teams in the nfl and there are bad teams in the nfl i think the cowboys if their defense got a little bit better could be a good team in the nfl but this is still professional football and this is a huge number for a professional football team
Speaker 10yeah i mean kendra has kind of got me convinced like i i was i've been on the fence with this because i look at dallas i know that offensive like firepower they have that can create separation but i think and i know it's only game one this may be my peg of the week to where i see the buccaneers with a little i agree early peg of the week yes yep yep here's
Speaker 6the thing the uh favorites typically do well historically on thursday night football the ugly dogs in primetime primetime this year have been tremendous and you know the world is going to be on the dallas cowboys here i'll pull up the public percentages right now fading the public in general i think great idea this year it's been even more profitable 72 of the bets are on the dallas cowboys and in contest we actually get this at plus nine and a half so yep send it book it all right yeah yeah when we have this much agreement there we just can't overthink this we just gotta go in there look at us thursday and you know what thursday
Speaker 7night we got something to cheer for tonight we can set our balls off together i can listen to the noise in my apartment while i watch the game yeah
Speaker 10what what's so what's going on there you have construction
Speaker 7they're jackhammering all of the floor over the next three weeks they're jackhammering all of the floors out of the shared space on the other side of my wall and it's going on every single day but the construction is going to go on through february and they didn't think that we were that my Karen ass would say anything or look up the law so I'm PMSing you guys I don't care if the pod listeners know that I'm sorry you've all touched a woman before I hope yeah no it anyways
Speaker 10it happens you know you just gotta make sure you're you have fresh tampons and pads and stuff like that and take care of yourself it's natural Emerson
Speaker 7thank you I forgot to order them on the internet so I'm gonna shout out Amazon Prime if you want to sponsor us I'm ordering that right now anyways next love it yeah I
Speaker 6love it yeah we're betting and we're betting your football and we're betting your football game tonight so hopefully uh hopefully Jalen Daniels jack hammers this but this uh Cowboys defense plus peg of the week first in the contest for us kumbaya let's go to London we got the Eagles against the Jags Jags minus seven it is minus six and a half in the contest the and Emerson has lost his load here the Eagles are hard hogging the headlines ahead of this one Lane Johnson retires Saquon Barkley is out Bigsby is out Devonte Smith is out Cam Juergens got traded I mean it would be quicker for me to tell you who is playing for this team can the Jags stomp them out guys you are our Jack's faithful tell us I'm
Speaker 10on a I'm on a flight to London tonight seven o'clock I have like 30 Jag shirts in my luggage behind me on the floor I'm not going over a little bit can you see it here yeah I can see it back there right next to my golf clubs tough yeah yeah so it's like we were texting a little bit yesterday like this should be a game right you look at it like on paper especially with all those injuries I mean you got you have guys for the Eagles who are just like yeah fuck this I'm I'm done I'm out of here I'm gonna go focus on my family and my mental health because this playing for this team is not good for my mental health like on paper you would think the Jags are gonna should just absolutely destroy annihilate tongue punch their balloon knot for four freaking quarters I'm still a little nervous though because we're not usually like we haven't been in this position a lot Kendra like our team is good we're going to London where we've been playing since what 2013 um you would think that like you know we're we're okay over there I think our record is is fairly decent the good news is Trevor Lawrence has a great record in Tottenham Hotspur two and one guy it's thrown like four touchdowns he has a great pass already I I do I do think the Jags cover I I don't want this more than I don't want this more than seven though because I'm I'm still nervous this does have a lot of potential I don't want this more than seven but I hope I'm I hope I'm wrong and yes I am taking the Jags to cover I have two questions
Speaker 7I don't think we should put this in the contest because I think that there are better games and we already have one in pocket but my thing with this is I don't want to touch this for two reasons when the Jaguars had back-to-back games in London in 2024 the first game they played against the Bears they got their shit rocked the second game against the Patriots they played a lot better I know that they have a routine and London is their second home state but I don't want to touch this one people love to call it whatever but I am worried with the two-game stance with history how that first game goes my second thing is I'm between is this the type of classic Eagles game where they are cornered and they somehow come out show out because that feels like something that the Eagles consistently do or are they punting on this season because of the injuries with the trade with the retirement I really can't decide
Speaker 10yeah I'm totally with you I I'm like I would obviously I to cover I mean I think a lot of that is more of like my heart than my head but like you said I'm probably not gonna mess with this game I want to sit there in the stands and I just really like want to enjoy it because I could see it going either way and as you've already pointed out history says like Jags in that first game maybe not great also Texans coming up next week not saying it's a huge yeah I'm not saying it's a huge look ahead spot it is though divisional exactly divisional game in London I don't know man there are better there are better games on the board
Speaker 6you would be buying ultimately high on the Jaguars and the Eagles have their backs against the wall yes that team feels like poison right now I'm not exactly telling you you should go and bet the Eagles the favorites have done really well in London they cover uh at a high rate but this one that Evan threw in the primer this week fascinates me in games where the favorite is off of a win that's the Jags and the dog is off of a loss that's the Eagles the favorite still covers 65 percent of the time but they win 90 percent of the time I think taking the Jags in a teaser if you're of that variety that's the way to go buy the number back down closer to where it was in the first place and pair it with somebody else let's move wait I do have a bet in this game
Speaker 7one second
Speaker 6what is it what
Speaker 7is it over on DraftKings you can get the Jags first sack minus 120 I think that is an incredible bet I know that the Jaguars have had a really hard time getting home this week but with all of the injuries and what's going on with their offensive line I think that that is if you can't get home on this injured Eagles team you're not going to get home has to be this week
Speaker 6I
Speaker 10love I love that back good call Kendra
Speaker 6Bears Packers Packers plus two and a half the line is on the move as we speak it's down to one and a half but a contest locks at two and a half the Bears have been without Caleb Williams for the last two weeks they've managed to win both games by double digits they're three and one on the season the Packers are off of a win in Tampa but they still feel broken I wanted the cheeseheads all week right before we started talking I bet them at two and a half nice I think this is a good time to buy them home dogs in division against the Bears this never happens we're getting a golden opportunity here to fade a team that I think might be at their Apex back up court it's still I know Ben Johnson has been doing a marvelous job he's still working with backup quarterbacks they were terrible in the red zone against the Jets uh the Jets offense just stinks so they couldn't keep pace they probably should have covered that game I like the Packers plus the points not an official nomination for me Cause there's others that I love this week, but I do like the Packers plus the points.
Speaker 7I can, I ask you what you like about the Packers because I can tell you what I like about the lions and that it's Ben Johnson is on a mission to put up points and win with whoever is available to him at quarterback. And the fact that he's been able to do that with three different guys through four weeks of the season, I'm not ready to fade Ben Johnson. If anything in this game, I want the over, but I'm curious what you like about what, what makes you feel good about this Packers team right now? Because for me, it's absolutely nothing.
Speaker 6Well, exactly. I mean, and that's part of it too. I think we got to be in the business of by lows for teams that aren't completely dead in the water. The Packers defense has been good 18 or less against the jets and the bucks. And I know that the bears are a different animal offensively, but again, we're talking about this isn't a Caleb Williams led years team. Ben Johnson's having to put together an offense with duct tape and glue. And I do worry about the Packers offense stinks, but the fact that you get them at home as dogs, and a bear's team, that's a little overvalued right now. That's what I like about them.
Speaker 10I think I saw a tweet from draft Kings, or maybe it was an Instagram post. The last time Chicago was favored in green Bay, Rex Grossman and Brett Favre were the quarterbacks. Yeah. Yeah. So green Bay getting points at Lambeau to me because 2006,
Speaker 6that was the last time that the bears were, were favorites in Lambeau.
Speaker 10Like you factor in the Caleb Williams, like injury. I don't know. Green Bay getting points at Lambeau. It is like super attractive to me. So, and what approximately, let me see. I have the number here. 89% of the money on the spread is backing Chicago. Like I'm going Packers. I'm going Packers plus two and a half.
Speaker 6And they finally started to run the ball. Well, too. I like the way that Marshawn Lloyd looked last week in the bucks, have a good run defense. So that's not nothing. Lucas Van Ness didn't practice on Wednesday. Kind of need him to play. I would say to bet it, but I already bet it. So we're, we're in pocket with the Packers. Not in the contest.
Speaker 7We can keep it as a baby. I will say, I do think that if Caleb Williams were playing in this game, the, I don't know if you guys remember last year when they nicknamed him the great one and people were bringing in like cheese graders. That was, that would be some a plus content this week if we were able to get it.
Speaker 6Yeah. Yeah. Maybe he'll, maybe he'll do something gimmicky on the sidelines. Let's go. Bengals, dolphins, dolphins, catching six and a half at home total at 42 and a half contest. Line is seven and a half. So appealing. Uh, the Bengals started the season two and oh, they've dropped two cents to the Steelers and the Jags. Their opponent, Miami just covered their first spread of the season. How cute Jamar chase status is up in the air. T Hagan status is up in the air. That's why the line is what it is. I don't think the dolphins are getting tremendous action here. This is very much injury related. I don't want to touch this game. The dolphins are probably the quote unquote sharp side. But burrow off of a loss against the team that can't score. I don't know how the dolphins keep pace here. So I'm kind of caught in limbo.
Speaker 7Yeah. My fear is also they have the buy on deck and that they might just be able like their, their goal is probably just to survive this game, get a win and stay healthy and get to the buy. That's kind of my thing is I don't think that they're going to go out here and try and blow doors against a bad team to prove anything. I think that they're in like stay healthy mode, but I am going to offer up for this game. Is a Mike Gusecki anytime as a revenge spot. I wrote that down too. That's great. Yeah, that's what I've got. But the thing is books literally because of everything going on with the Bengals receivers are not offering props right now for anyone other than in any time touchdown for Gusecki. I was looking at receptions. I was looking at yards, nothing.
Speaker 10I mean, getting down for it, getting below that key number of seven though, that kind of makes Cincinnati a little more appealing for me.
Speaker 7Agree, but it's not in the contest. If it were a six and a half in contest, I'd say we should send it.
Speaker 6Okay. I don't think we can buy it. We can't buy the Bengals at seven and a half, but I mean, I can see this game. This game just reeks of close at the half, maybe even close halfway through the third. And then the Bengals win 20 to six. Agree. So let's move to the Texans and the Titans. This is an interesting one. So the Texans are seven and a half point favorites on the road. Contest line is six and a half. The start for the Texans as, has been very frustrating. They have led in the final two minutes in three of their four losses. I have lost a considerable amount of money betting on the Houston Texans. This should be a smash spot. Yeah, I mean, it's just every CJ Stroud interceptions for you. Texans spread for me. Nothing is working. We have them on bet IR, but this is a smash spot for the Houston Texans. We should be adding the Texans minus six. Six and a half to this contest. Will we is a different question, but we should their
Speaker 7entire defense is on the injury report though. I get this. I get that the Titans suck, but they are hurt even on offense. Collins and Dell were both limited in practice this week.
Speaker 6Well, Dell hasn't played yet. I think him being limited is a good sign that we might actually see tank. Dell make his debut. How ins has to play in order for us to feel good about this. Cause CJ Stroud, he looks like, he looks like a third string quarterback when Nico Collins isn't on the field. And I think he looks pretty, he looks like prime Bryce young when, when, uh, when, when Collins is out there, it's just a complete, completely different offense with him. Uh, the David Montgomery signing for a quick aside, what a waste of cash that was just send him back to Detroit. They need him.
Speaker 10They need the Tennessee has attracted 66% of the money despite receiving only 39% of the bets here. So that discrepancy combined with the extra half, the point it kind of makes the Titans, my new ETS selection here.
Speaker 6So let me give you the, let me give you the trend. Let me give you the trend on this from our stat sound, Evan Abrams, before you go smash and keys on the Titans, the Titans are three and 15 ATS against the AFC south over the last four seasons with cam ward at quarterback. The Titans are two and six ATS after they cover the spread, which they did last week against the Baltimore Ravens. Good job. Andra. Uh, they are not beddable, not beddable. No. And the, and that offense is just, it's horrendous. And the other thing is Texans have been susceptible to big plays. I th that's the reason they've lost. They've lost. Look at the quarterbacks. They've given up big yardage to Joe burrow, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen. Cam Lord is not those guys. This is Texans or nothing.
Speaker 10You could not pay me to watch this game. I like seriously, like you, you just, you couldn't pay me to do it. I would rather, have somebody drop a fat deuce and a brown paper bag and light it on fire on my stoop. And then I will stomp it out with my boots. That is what I would rather have happened to me than watch a single play in this game.
Speaker 7I am going to watch the entire thing, but also in division feels like I get that. Don't get me wrong. I know that both of these teams are bad, but seven and a half in a divisional game, when we know, when we know that the divisional games are just built different, it's tough. All right.
Speaker 6Not, not in, not in. We are in bet purgatory with that one. Let's go to the Colts and the Steelers Steelers minus two and a half total at 44 and a half. Really, really bad schedule spot for the Colts here off of a London game on the road against the Steelers team with 10 days to prep. Yet 68% of the tickets are on the Colts here. I don't want to bet the Steelers. You don't want to bet the Steelers. I feel like we got to bet the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Speaker 7Did you know this is only the second time in history that a team has played a road game after an international game?
Speaker 6Did not know that. How did it go? The last time? I don't know. Okay. Has that, has that happened to the Jags? I would assume
Speaker 10it would probably be us. Yeah. Why not us? Why not us?
Speaker 7I don't know. I feel like it is a Steeler spot, but the thing is, is that I just don't trust Aaron. Aaron Rogers, man, the Colts are also getting in Allen back this week.
Speaker 10Same. Yeah, Pittsburgh has injury concerns to in the secondary. I feel like the Colts chances of keeping this close or winning outright. Georgia Bean. What do you think? Sweetie pie? I dogs checking in.
Speaker 6Yeah. Yeah. Back to the dog is checking in. I think that leads me back to the Colts though. Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 7I think instructions on lunch boys. We're getting lucky.
Speaker 6This is great. Yeah. Bad news for for Aaron Rogers dating back to 2022. Aaron Rogers has started five games on extended prep time coming off of a loss. His teams are own five ATS in the yeah. Now
Speaker 10Aaron Rogers is so
Speaker 6what is he seven years old time?
Speaker 10What I thought I lost out of the game. Yeah doing doing drugs and kissing
Speaker 7his computer wife
Speaker 10his computer. Yeah, probably cranking his hog. Who the hell knows his
Speaker 7wife is literally Karen from Spongebob.
Speaker 10I'm convinced I just like, we don't know who it is, right? It's it's a computer. Okay, is this like that movie with Chalk Queen Phoenix and he falls in love with Siri?
Speaker 7I think that that's exactly what's happening.
Speaker 6It's kind of been Kendra's theory all along with this.
Speaker 10There are okay. Listen, all I know is and I don't know this from experience. Okay, but I know there are very there are lifelike dolls out there, you know? Yes. So it's only going to
Speaker 6get worse with AI Emerson. It's about to get really. It's really weird out there. More like guy got them. All right. Next Raiders, Patriots, Patriots minus three and a half. This is a fascinating game. I love the Raiders this year. We are a Raiders podcast here. That is one of our teams from the beginning of the season. We've been talking about this team since may people. Okay. You're late to the party, but the Patriots have dug themselves out of the mud with a win over the bills. I think this is one of those games. That's going to tell us a lot about whoever comes out on top. Does the plus three and a half on the Raiders feel too easy to everyone out there, the Raiders are not only three and one, they're four and oh, ATS. They're the only team to cover the spread every week, this season against the closing line. I feel like it's too easy.
Speaker 10Yeah. I think so. I was betting Drake made a throw a touchdown that are throwing in. Interception rather to throw an interception last week.
Speaker 6He had one that was not on him.
Speaker 10Was that Romeo Dobbs? I don't care. I don't, I don't, I don't care who it's on. It's an interception. Drake may bet it, baby.
Speaker 7I would like to nominate. I know that the Patriots are on bet. I are, but I would like to nominate the Raiders for your consideration because of a few things. One, we're getting points with a team that's four and oh, and I get that the Patriots finally won. A game last week, but the thing is, is that when the Raiders opened the season on the road in new England last year, it was one of, it was not the only game they won last year that they went another game, but they played really well here in new England. I don't think that it's something that they have, you know, any kind of weird reservation about being able to perform here because they did it literally a year ago. The other thing is that the Patriots, their injury report is disgusting. Yeah. Every. Yeah. Every single player is on it. Who is going to be there starting running back this week? Is it going to be Travion? Because he is not playing well. Josh McDaniels doesn't seem like he can scheme anything right now. And the Raiders are just rolling like Kirk cousins. I get that. He looks like his interceptions when they, when he has one, they're ugly, but those tight ends are doing him insane favors. I don't think that this is the time to fade the Raiders, even though it seems like the Patriots have gotten back on track here, it's more so once again, just the injury thing, but I don't trust. Vrabel to manage injuries the same way that Kyle Shanahan is able to.
Speaker 10Nope, nope, nope, that I'm totally with you. That horny toad is distracted. This is a let down spot Raiders three in one. You're getting more than a field goal against a Patriots team. If you, as you have already mentioned, Kendra with defensive injury concerns, that makes Las Vegas an attractive underdog for me
Speaker 7and still no A.J. Brown. So can they put up points?
Speaker 10Say it BK, you coward. Say it, go ahead. Don't be moaning and groaning.
Speaker 6I was just, they don't want to interrupt anybody. I am using my veto on this. I think the Patriots are the, I think the pads, I think the pads to the right side here and I love the Raiders, but the, this, this kind of feels like if you're on the Raiders now, you're just too late to the party that we can sense an implosion game coming. I get it, but the, the Raiders defense. So one of the things that has been vulnerable for them, 29th and red zone defense, that's really helpful for the Patriots. They cannot score in the red zone. They're finally going to go up against the defense that will just let anybody do it. That's helpful. Mike Rabel, 17 and four ATS in October, since 2020, he's the most profitable coach in the NFL. Their injury report was thick last week against a better team in the Buffalo bills. I think this is a good time to buy the new England Patriots. I like the pets. I didn't even think about it being cocked over, dude.
Speaker 10I didn't even think about that.
Speaker 6I mean, he's just, yeah. Um, I'm going
Speaker 7to give out Cody white over one and a half receptions and I wanted Efton Chisholm's receptions, but they're unavailable. So I'm going to go with him to have a touchdown as well. Vrabel in his press conferences this week was very vocal about how disrespected Efton Chisholm was after that touchdown, which I mean, to be honest, like he is just a glorified practice squad guy, not to be a dick. It's true. Um, so I think that they're probably going to try to go back to the well. They don't really have a ton of other options anyways. So I put a very, very, very, very teeny tiny sprinkle on an Efton Chisholm anytime touchdown, just because there weren't other options for me, but I do love Cody white over one and a half receptions.
Speaker 6I have, they already sold out of Efton Chisholm jerseys at the team shop is just such a new
Speaker 7England guy. Really?
Speaker 6He is. Yeah. Uh, Brown's jets jets minus two and a half back at home after playing the last two on the road, the Browns off of a Thursday night tilt against Pittsburgh. This game should be gross in theory. But the Browns have some mojo. Are we buying the Watson resurgence? I don't know.
Speaker 7I'm kind, I think I'm kind of torn.
Speaker 6You're the Browns girl on the show.
Speaker 7I, I am, but I think that I'm kind of torn on him and Gino in the same way. Like, I feel like I'm just waiting for both of
Speaker 6them to implode Emerson talk to us. I'm really twisted up on this game because I don't want to buy, I don't want to buy high on the Browns. I certainly don't want to lay points with the jet. So I know man. I'm in the middle.
Speaker 10This is like, does this have all the makings of like one of those classic rock fights for you guys? You know, it kind of, it kind of feels like points are going to be like at a premium here. So like, I, I think I would take the Browns plus what do we have? The number has one and a half, two and a half.
Speaker 6It is one and a half. So money coming in on the Browns. If there's still a two and a half out there on the Browns, I, I do think that that's a good bet. I would be okay with putting the Browns in the contest.
Speaker 10Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's disgusting, but I don't trust either offense like to run away with this thing.
Speaker 7Yep. I like the under, and I also have Gino Smith over 10 and a half rushing yards. He's averaging nine Browns. We'll get after him. He's going to have to run around a bit.
Speaker 6All right. Um, I want to remind everybody out there that we have one of the five that are in contest. We started hot and we've really cooled off since then, but remind everyone too.
Speaker 10It's the peg of the week week.
Speaker 7This isn't home for the Browns though. If this were home, I think I'd feel differently.
Speaker 6Well, for sure. The Browns at home or the Browns at the dog pounder, different team. I don't want to buy high on Cleveland. I don't, but the jets are a sketchy bunch.
Speaker 10Last time I checked, I think 84% of the, uh, bats were backing the Browns to cover.
Speaker 6That's not when you, and that is not, I think the two and a half is a good number on the Browns. This is where I'm twisted up. That is a good, if that is out there, that is a good solid bet to make per the numbers. However, you do not want to bet the Browns when they're getting 80% of the Browns. Yeah. That is not a way to make money in this running life. Let's go to the giants at the commanders commanders minus three and a half. This is the line that makes the least sense of all the lines. This week, Jayden Daniels is on the mend here. He's going to play practiced in full on Wednesday. The left arm is going to be in a brace. I'm not sure how that's going to limit him. He's certainly not going to be at a hundred percent. The guy can't land on one of his arms. The giants have a chance to move to four and one here and they're catching three and a half points in a division game against the team that's flying back from London. I don't get this.
Speaker 7You and me.
Speaker 6We're here. I pride myself on getting every number. It's like one thing that I do well in life is understanding how every line lands where it is. And this one baffles me.
Speaker 7I did. I had the exact same thought. I'm all over the giants. Love the giants. This week. I get. That they are having some serious question. Marks with Jamis, but this feels like a giant spot. Also the commander is breaking news. They have a substation next to their field.
Speaker 10Really? Yes. Plains a lot. It does. What do you mean? What are we talking about?
Speaker 7You know how the 49ers have the substation that's causing all of their injuries.
Speaker 10No, I don't.
Speaker 7Oh, maybe I've been
Speaker 10reading my book too much. It's not up on the news. Can you just tell me real quick? It's only been out
Speaker 6there for like two years.
Speaker 7Emerson. The electromagnetic fields are causing all of the like 49ers players for their muscle to just fall off the bone.
Speaker 6Oh, yeah, there's commanders
Speaker 7also have a ton of injuries and so many injuries. I put the injury report in our notes, but they have so many injuries. I am all over the giants. I know that it is yucky, but I am with Kravitz. Should we? Dating the Giants?
Speaker 10Yeah. I like it. I like it.
Speaker 7Okay. Number at three and a half.
Speaker 10Three and a half. Yeah. Absolutely. Absolutely. Yeah. More than a field goal in a divisional game. That's appealing. As one favorite. Yeah. Go ahead.
Speaker 7Jayden does not play well against the Giants in his career, and
Speaker 6they don't play well at home as favorites. Washington 39 58 and three against the spread as a home favorite since 2000. That is the worst mark in the NFL. Profitable strategy to fade the commanders as favorites.
Speaker 10So at home, is he just going to have in this? And this is a question from a guy who has him in a couple of fantasy leagues as well. Is he going to have just like a massive brace on that non throwing arm like one of the ones that Gronk used to wear?
Speaker 6Yeah. You remember Kurt? You remember Kurt Warner? I think he's the most vivid memory years ago wearing that big brace.
Speaker 7Yeah. But if I'm not mistaken, the brace has a curve to it, which means he can't run properly. Yeah, girl. Yeah.
Speaker 10A little curve in there. It has to keep
Speaker 7it bent so that it prevents him. from getting another yeah yeah yep yeah girl now you're
Speaker 6talking his language all right let's move to the next one we got two games in pocket here bucks plus nine and a half giants plus three and a half the dogs are barking vikings at saints saints plus one and a half the dog is back the saints had the big dome coming on monday night football they got waxed by the atlanta falcons if you can't get up for that game what makes us think you're gonna get up for a 1 p.m against kyler murray and the vikings but guys before you chime in i bet this game at halftime on monday night football this is such a saint's spot embarrassed in prime time against a team with they're perhaps the worst 4-0 team of my lifetime second worst success rate on offense in the league 156 pass yards per game 156 pass yards per game worst in the nfl yes their defensive numbers look great they've gone up against the packers the bucks and the dolphins and the bears in a rainstorm the saints are my favorite nominee plus one and a half
Speaker 7veto yeah i don't
Speaker 6know man they dude the
Speaker 7saints do not play well at home i'm sorry you would think with an environment like that they would be a better home team but if you look at their injury report it's disgusting as well like kate and ellis noah fan devon goss shout anthony jennings was on there this week alvin camara chris olave tyler shuck was limited like i don't want anything to do with that i know that the vikings are due for a come to jesus moment but good lord this is not yeah
Speaker 10i mean minnesota still has injury concerns it's a it's a pretty pretty decent defense which i trust way more than the saints i i'm leaning towards i'm leaning towards minnesota covering
Speaker 7here it's vikings are nothing but i'm vetoing this crap goodbye
Speaker 6yeah trust is overrated home dog against undefeated teams last 172 times 61 against the spread that would be the new orleans saints
Speaker 7what's um
Speaker 10is jefferson going to be available
Speaker 7he i did put his status here he was limited in practice so i would assume yes okay
Speaker 10i mean new orleans just surrendered 45 freaking points right to
Speaker 6atlanta but i mean that was against the best team in the nfl oh my
Speaker 10god shut up dude what's going on you next atlanta's won us
Speaker 7some money here
Speaker 10on this show though so i mean i'll give you that cost us
Speaker 7some money yeah you know
Speaker 6what's crazy about the falcons is that you all called me a fucking lunatic in the off season when i bought this team and they've been the best team in the nfl the last
Speaker 10two dude they haven't been the best team that's the jaguar i've been the best team in the nfl the
Speaker 6last two weeks that is undeniable okay let's go let's go the first
Speaker 10four weeks of the season it's the jaguars we're not we don't all right whatever let's go the next broncos
Speaker 6chargers chargers plus three and a half is my favorite moment of the show 42 and a half is the total two of the least healthy teams going head to head here in the late window the broncos are likely without patrick sirtan and riley moss in the secondary this is a really important part of their overall team success and the chargers shockingly are without their two offensive linemen that are one of the keys to their success when they have it which they haven't had any this year really rashaun slater joe alt they're gonna be out the chargers have been disgustingly bad but i will remind you before anybody tries to sell me on the broncos that road bow nicks is not good the broncos are plus 11 this year at home they are minus 31 on the road chargers or nothing people dude have
Speaker 7you seen the chargers injury
Speaker 6report dude oh it's
Speaker 10disgusting both but both yeah oh god i mean dude if this yeah this was home like bow nicks and the mile high is so different than bow nicks on the road
Speaker 6oh i will bet bow nicks all day long with every dollar in my account when he's at mile high but i want no part of the road and the chargers i get it this is one i hate i i like the chargers i bet the chargers i'm not sure i want to put my reputation on the chargers so i like this as a i i'm not gonna fight for this one but i do i do like the chargers this
Speaker 7week i just i've bet on the chargers so much i like yeah yeah they're
Speaker 6just so hurt how
Speaker 7are they gonna put up points that's
Speaker 6they are a game away i will say they are a non-cover away from from prison for me yeah dude
Speaker 10same i hate this team i've said it like multiple times and i've joined you guys like this season i can't stand them the best thing about that team as i've also said almost every week i know where are the cutaways of madison beer jumping up and down in her little suite in la that's it other other than that all of these guys on the chargers roster they are all frauds they are frauds this team is a fraud they are all cowards and i i am sick of them taking my money you're a boob guy aren't you i'm a whatever i can get go you know it doesn't matter the time of the month kendra if wifey wants it wifey will get it if she came in right now and said get off the podcast let's make love i would
Speaker 7do it i think that we would encourage you
Speaker 6absolutely we support that decision that's why that's why i love you guys
Speaker 10and i know gifford would support me for sure i know he would support me dude it's natural you just want it oh all right so i don't yeah sorry dude my lost my train of thought thinking of my wife naked justin
Speaker 6herbert and bo nicks have faced each other uh three times the chargers are three and oh against the spread in those situations justin herbert and bo nicks so let's um so no no on the chargers i just yeah all right i don't know we have three we need three we need three more people we're running out of games lions i know the lions cardinals cardinals are plus five and a half the lions off of a road loss in prime time to the carolina panthers what a sweet victory that was for yours truly cardinals off of a road loss to jamis and the giants this is a double buy low here the lions have a bye week on deck so i'm sure they're gonna want to empty the clip and get a win here any takers or are we backing the birds i could
Speaker 7be convinced on the lions yeah i mean
Speaker 6arizona does have
Speaker 10um some offensive line concerns right
Speaker 6eris johnson is outfield game he is easily their best offensive lineman and the lions defense is bad but they do get after the quarterback pressure yeah they are number two in the league in sacks so this could be a bad matchup for arizona yeah i also just
Speaker 7don't know how the cardinals are going to keep up with the lions scoring wise that's the biggest difference for me here so here's here's how
Speaker 6the lions defense is atrocious they allow 32 points per game uh but they are dead last against tight ends in the nfl trey mcbride yeah i think this is more of a trey mcbride mcbride props game than anything else i do like the cardinals but um i need that six i'm not bad five and a half yeah has this this gone from four
Speaker 10and a half to five and a half i think like over four and a half in
Speaker 6the contest so if we're taking the lions we are getting the best of it for a contest
Speaker 10play yeah i like i like the lions at four and a half
Speaker 6i'll do that andrew oh i'll allow it I also have
Speaker 7Tesla over two and a half receptions. His catches have gone up every week. Week one, zero week, two, two, week three, three, week four and week four catches. And he had a recalled touchdown last week. So I think they try and feed him this week.
Speaker 10Good get right spot for Detroit boys and lady. Yes, lady boy.
Speaker 6I got a third one in there. We got two left. We'll get the bucks plus nine and a half. The Giants plus three and a half. The lions minus four and a half, four, nine, 49ers Seahawks Seahawks laying two and a half at home total sitting at 45 and a half. This is a big one. Niners. One of three unbeaten teams in the NFL. Brock Purdy looks like an MVP. That was one that we handed out in the off season as well. Historic levels of efficiency, but the Seahawks are allowing just one 44 through the air per game. This is strength on strength. Shanahan McDonald. Who do we like? I haven't bet
Speaker 7it, but I think I think Seattle is the answer here. I got got by the 49ers last week with the Broncos and their injuries do have to catch up to them at some point, but it's like the coaching mismatch mismatch here for me. Like they're for some reason Shanahan cannot play this Eagles team. Well, I don't know what it is. He does not perform well against this version of the Seattle Seahawks. So I don't know how you fade the consistency. Of that stat alone and to be honest like Seattle has to start on an upward trajectory at some point Sam Darnold's back. They need to get back on track. I know that they also have some injuries, but this defense against this many injuries. It's not like the Broncos defense who got super injured last week and just couldn't, you know, hold out towards the end of the game. This is a well coached and deep deep team on the depth chart. And yeah, so I think that is I don't have. To bet this game, but it's Seattle or nothing for me. I very much could be convinced to back the Seahawks here.
Speaker 10Okay, I agree. with her and let me give you guys a little sneak peek one of my commercials that'll be uh airing this weekend i update it every every week with a new game and this week one of my can't wait to watch it 1700 times yeah i i know you're watching it pantless buddy so one of the spots i read was this three two one the niners are off to an unbeaten start while also going three and one against the spread now they face seattle who they've struggled with as of late going one and three straight up and against the spread in their last four matchups so i am going seattle okay
Speaker 7you know what we can kumbaya for a moment yeah we
Speaker 6are we are kumbayaing for a moment i agree with both of you okay i was
Speaker 7gonna say if me if you don't like this and you're on the edge i would be willing to give you your falcons if you met us in the middle but we all agree oh i
Speaker 6should have negotiated
Speaker 10then well this is why
Speaker 7that's my job on this podcast and
Speaker 10not yours guys just one second i totally forgot to read the promo three two one right now new draft kings sports book customers bet five bucks and get 150 in total bonus bets just download the app and use the promo code when you sign up the crown is yours and
Speaker 6if you miss that i'll be back in five minutes with this ad read again
Speaker 10period buckle up grab the ky jelly
Speaker 6one other thing that i wanted to add to the cap not that we need to um beat a dead horse here because we're on the seahawks minus two and a half that is making its way into our contest this is the first true road game for san francisco this year they had the australia game which the rams basically said we forgot how to travel they handed the game admitted that they have admitted that then they had the dolphins the cardinals and the broncos all at home it's just it's felt too easy for them they haven't gotten punched in the mouth yet and there is an injury on this team that i don't think is reflected in the point spread that is huge i know what you're
Speaker 7gonna say kyle use check in
Speaker 6this offense him not being there is gonna hurt this run game big time league high 42 of their drives end in touchdowns not gonna happen on the road in seattle i just wonder how they respond to that i like the seahawks as well let's move to sunday night football ravens at falcons falcons are now three and a half point favorites the contest line is plus two and a half this is a gift from the gods lamar jackson's status is up in the air he's probably not going to be there for the rest of the season he's going to be there for the rest of the season he's probably not going to play the line tells us he's not playing in this game so i mean do i even need to sell anyone on this plus michael pennix and uh bijan robinson in prime time the guy averages 145 scrimmage yards per game in prime time insane numbers he's awesome they're awesome all of the falcons
Speaker 7you can have
Speaker 10it yeah i'm i'm i'm fine with it i am falcons have scored 80 points their last two games and especially without like lamar jackson okay i will
Speaker 6say i'm not betting the falcons at minus three and a half this is a this is a gift this is a contest gift i wish that i had gotten in on this early i am not personally at least yet betting on this football game but this is just a contest gift for
Speaker 7those of you who are watching this podcast and not listening to it you just saw me yell at the dog because i left my little tiny leftover bit of matcha in the windowsill and i just heard him licking it and you could see that i was like oh my god i'm not betting on this football game i'm not betting on this see him scamper and run across the couch in the background if you rewind this you literally see me like cuss at him and then him just run across the couch in
Speaker 6the back big uh big dog episode
Speaker 7big dog episode yeah a lot
Speaker 6of tongue punching that's for sure all right we've got our five bills rams on monday night football the rams are three point favorites sky high total at 54 and a half could be a super bowl preview we'll save it for monday's show our contest is full make sure that you're listening on monday we'll give a same game parlay you and a bet for that game let's recap the action presented by draft kings where the crown is yours we've got the bucks plus nine and a half on thursday night football giants plus three and a half on the road against the commanders lions minus four and a half on the road in arizona seattle minus two and a half at home against their division rival san francisco 49ers and the falcons on sunday night football with a gift at plus two and a half go and find it on draft kings where the crown is yours you have another read you want to throw our way emerson before we cut you
Speaker 10loose uh i absolutely do not uh plenty of reads that'll be on your television and i'm very excited to be in london i will send you guys updates on sunday as i'm sitting in the stands watching our boys where are
Speaker 7you where are you staying i have lots of london
Speaker 10wrecks um i'm staying in some uh marriott hotel because i'm a point tour okay so and they and what i like about this hotel that i'm staying in the neighborhood but sure oh i'm sorry i was about to really dive into how i like the hotel i'm at because the like sauna and cold plunge is included in your stay you don't have to pay extra for the spa stuff and so i can sit in sauna and like make friends but yeah i mean i'm around that like main park i've only been to london once and i had to do a bunch of wedding shit when i was there so tomorrow i'm just gonna be hitting the ground running but yeah text
Speaker 7me yeah i've got i've got tons of
Speaker 10wrecks i lived there we're gonna we're gonna go um the my friend who i'm going with we're going to a brentford game and it's an away game so we're gonna go to a
Speaker 7brentford game dude
Speaker 10we're gonna go to birmingham and watch him just absolutely destroy aston villa on saturday yeah i can't i can't wait dude yeah thanks so much guys i really appreciate it have
Speaker 6fun and uh and we love you too and enjoy your bonvoy points the favorites will return on monday as we recap week five of the nfl a preview of monday night football bills rams you can catch it right here on the action network youtube page or wherever you download your favorite podcasts our show has been presented by draft kings the crown is yours action network reminds you please gamble
Speaker 12responsibly if you or someone you care about has a gambling problem help them gamble responsibly and if you or someone you care about has a gambling problem help them gamble responsibly and if you or someone you care about has a gambling problem help is available 24 7 at 1-800 gambler if you own a
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Speaker 1use chat gpt to answer questions others use it to get real work done with chat gpt work you bring the goal plus real inputs like briefs notes files feedback data and project plans it can help turn them into an analysis tracker deck outline prototype or workflow you can review and keep shaping you stay in control giving direction and choosing the final output put chat gpt to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects get started at chat gpt.com by selecting work mode available on plus and pro plans this
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