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Conceptual Skills We Seek from Skill Players, Slot Pct, and Who Surprised Us: Going Deep with Brandon Angelo & Matt Waldman

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Conceptual Skills We Seek from Skill Players, Slot Pct, and Who Surprised Us: Going Deep with Brandon Angelo & Matt Waldman

This transcript covers a discussion on non-physical traits for scouting quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. The primary focus is on quarterbacks, where the ability to manage a game—controlling tempo, reading defenses, and adapting over four quarters—is deemed more important than physical talent. Examples like Josh Allen, who took time to develop, and failed prospects like Zach Wilson or Trey Lance illustrate that physical gifts alone cannot sustain NFL success. The conversation emphasizes "processing confidence," where elite quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes or Matthew Stafford trust their pre-snap reads and throw with anticipation, whereas younger players like Drake Maye hesitate, waiting for receivers to separate. This leads to late throws and turnovers. The "black zone" (inside the 20-yard line) is identified as a common struggle for young quarterbacks, who often try to extend plays heroically instead of taking safe options. Strength of schedule is argued to be more crucial for NFL evaluation because defenses game-plan specifically against a player's tendencies, as seen in the sophomore slumps of CJ Stroud and Jayden Daniels. The discussion also touches on the importance of offensive coordinators providing adaptable solutions and quarterbacks learning to counter defensive adjustments.

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All right, welcome everybody to go and deep Brandon Angelo Matt Waldman. We're here once again. We're gonna talk about What do we look for? specifically non-physical items that we look for with quarterbacks running backs wide receivers and tight ends You know those positions that we scout and then we'll talk about maybe the most surprising player in this draft class that we've watched this far We're gonna talk a little bit about the combination of Matt Nagy and Jackson Dart Yeah, and it Johnson running back out in Nebraska. We'll talk a little bit about him and if we have time Maybe we'll talk about this whole model idea of slot percentage time spent in the slot and how important that might be for today's game and Are there exceptions to that rule and who were those exceptions to that rule? So you know, we've got a pretty loaded show that we can go through. We'll see how much we get through so let's let's start this way, Brandon You know What is a key non-physical item that you look for with a quarterback? Good question. I think the probably the biggest thing for quarterbacks is Being able to literally just manage a game Like managing the tempo of the offense understanding What looks you're seeing how these looks are gonna vary through four quarters and that's the thing is quarterbacks of extremely mental emotional position where You are thinking feeling seeing in all all of that information Given to you on a single play might be used the next down the next quarter three months from now and using a lot of that to to set up potentially different shots different explosives and That's where it's different. It's just learning to manage that piece of it because very rarely that does the best Athlete on the field who's the quarterback that put into the NFL and completely dominate never happens like Josh Allen nope took him a little while to get the wheels under him guys like Will levis didn't pan out Trin Lance Nope Zach Wilson Nope You can kind of keep going Down the list of guys who didn't pan out and the reason is never physical right those guys had immense physical abilities, but they never White grass the ability to actually manage the football game right that's your in my opinion your number one rolls a quarterback is Managing Down to down quarter to quarter game to game understanding what you're seeing how to play off of that and Also to just Being Clark Kent need to be Clark Kent. You don't have to be Superman all the time That's a big part of it and that's the next step for a lot of quarterbacks who have a lot of physical ability It just being okay with the Monday right if the team you're playing as Two of their interior lineman I are Well then this might be a very Run-a-heavy game if you have good guard play and good center play right But you don't have to you might have to throw for 350 yards and two touchdowns that might not have to be the cards and so week to week That kind of changes understanding kind of the ebbs and flows of that And just kind of playing the position is a as a in a managerial perspective and that's a huge one. I think For quarterbacks convenience the NFL now it's you know, especially with more than 12 and 13 personnel Where you have to be a little more diligent with your your checks and understanding defensive assignments Understanding you know, I just listen to Trevor Lawrence talk about Liam Cohen and He said the difference between Cohen's offense and anyone's that he's been in is He'll give you the right answer on a given play But I'll give you three answers And it's up for you to it's up to you to choose the right one. He'll give you three play calls two through play calls And it's up to the quarterback to get the offense in the right look based on what he's seeing He's in the driver's seat right so he's the one seeing What the likely defensive assignments are what their look is there's any towels based on alignment and then Changing the play shifting the formation giving a different motion To get them in the right play to have the highest degree of success from a probability perspective. So That's the role right we think of the physical physical physical but it's not until you can Grasp that piece of it that you ascend you know from that Middle of the pack in the NFL likes quarterback 16 to 18 to being a top three to five guy Because all those traits and the three to five is a marriage of the physical mental emotional and the ability to manage the game down the down Play the play game the game Well, it's a great answer and I want to piggyback on your answer and then give one of my own but just to add to it Just to give specifics think about I've been watching I've watched about four or five of the Prospects thus far on the past week and one of the common factors that I see this year and every year most of the time is Can they manage the black zone and can they manage the red zone and really the black zone is the the one that they really fuck up most of the time Okay, it's just because they're so used to being the physically dominant piece on the board That they default into I can outrun I can buy more time I can use my arm to make a play and we need a play It's third down and we're and it's third and seven or it's second and twelve and and if I just buy enough time I can make a big play here the problem is is that you get to the NFL and or you play Some decent teams in the college game and they run into this a little bit more often in college You know against the better teams, but then in the NFL they run into it like Every time they're in the situation and it beats them down and what happens is you'll see things like You know they're up by four or they're down by a touch on it's a close game You know whether it's a lead or whether it's a or whether they're they're slightly behind and they're backed up inside their own 20 And they have a check down and it's right in front of their face and it's right away and there's and they've already diagnosed that there's pressure coming And instead of throwing the ball to the check down They do a spin and roll like the most inefficient dynamic way to try and get away from pressure and up retreating from pressure and Wind up taking sacks or having to throw the ball into a a thicket of defenders They take risks that aren't necessary. It's like the running back who bounces things outside When the two yards was sufficient to keep the playbook open So you see this a lot with young quarterbacks. I've just watched tail and green and Tail and green there's a lot of good things about his game But one of the things that happens with him is he tries to be a hero I would say tie Simpson even more so tie Simpson I would say some of his game management stuff is just Undercuts the good things that he can do and then I would I would talk about you know Newsmyer news get newsmeyer is kind of up and down in that category like sometimes it's really good and sometimes you're like Yeah, dude, go away even even Fernando Mendoza as much as I like him and we'll talk about him more in the future The one weakness that he can have and that he has shown is in the black zone He tries to be a hero in certain situations and he shouldn't this is a common thing with young quarterbacks and The quarterbacks who get better are the ones that figure out that they can't be hero and they have to manage that So you know, I just wanted to give an example of kind of how that is they they pass up check downs. They try to They they pass up opportunities to throw the ball away to buy more time than they should Sometimes you need as a quarterback and this is part of Managing the game and looking at the field like you said looking at things pre snap and going What's the solution here? You may have four routes that you're that you're considering and you're looking at all the coverage and well The coverage does this and I do this if this if that if that and they can whiteboard it to death and John Gruden's gonna be super impressed with you and you know and then all the NFL reporters are gonna talk about how Desmond Ritter Acid the whiteboard, but here's the problem. Okay, the difference between Desmond Ritter and Philip Rivers Okay, there's a vast difference But the thing that I can pinpoint in this area that comes down to is Desmond Ritter can recite all the possibilities of what can happen on the whiteboard Philip Rivers is gonna you know, gamble up to the line probably adjust his hernia and then look at the line and go and look at the field and go you know what? It's basically a one-row moment right now. Yeah, this is where I'm going and if it's not there, I'm throwing the ball away. If I can't throw the ball away, I'm just taking the sack. I'm just going down and it's like it's knowing those three things and you know that if you do those other two bad things that it's not as bad than what Desmond Ritter would likely have done which is thrown a pick six or fumbled the ball trying to extend the run or Zach Wilson or all the guys that you mentioned and that's the thing is like the young guy see all the possibilities you know and so it's like it's like the old Jamaican saying that a new broom sweeps clean but the old broom knows all the corners and it's kind of like Philip Rivers is like okay I filtered it down this is what's possible let's do these things and we're going to keep us competitive where the young guys are like I can do all this and then they're bouncing around everywhere. It's I always say it's possible versus probable right here a young quarterback you might see the second percentile out right it's still possible right but it's not probable like you get a and that's a difference that's a great perspective right Philip Rivers versus the guy like Desmond Ritter where Philip Rivers will walk up the line of scrimmage and understand what the most probable outcome is on each route that the receivers are running receivers tie ends backs and where he's going with football and what sequential order right as a younger player you you kind of say okay at the safety is doing this I'm going to go here but what if it's not open okay I'm going to buy some time and make it open no it doesn't work in the NFL so the the windows are so much smaller the the players are so much better athletically that you're not going to be able to do that down to down you didn't college and so that's a great point because I think it's possible versus probable right really good quarterbacks they just take the highest probability outcome most of time and live the fight another down yeah and then those great plays that we see I mean they happen two to three times a game and they're the they're the difference between being a good starting quarterback and an elite quarterback okay so those are the best of the best and even then those guys are potted in their head don't try to do this every down there's times where you've got to try but don't try and do it all the time because if you have to try and do it all the time your Caleb Williams last year or 2024 when you don't have to do it all the time your Caleb Williams at the end of the game and you can see the difference of what that looks like because now you you're not wasting bandwidth and energy trying to do the the improbable on every play and your teams putting you in position where you don't have to so the thing that I would say that's the advanced quarterbacking part of that that you would say the difference between say Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes you know I know that Alex Smith let's say even like Kirk cousins like good Kirk cousins and Patrick Mahomes I would say the difference between those two guys is that is what I would call processing confidence processing to me I would define it as that it's iding the decision the best possible decision and executing it with immediate confidence and that and so what's missing oftentimes is that again the whiteboarding you know we're going to hear a lot about that in the next couple you know six weeks about how good the whiteboard players these guys are but the thing is is Alex Smith could probably get a PhD in the whiteboard but in whatever year he was as a probable quarterback when they're in the playoffs and it's third and 16 and you know that the and he knows what the defense is going to give him and it's not a high probability thing but he knows he's going to have to look for it because that's what they're cornering it because this is a good defense and they can filter it down to this or like you know they're going to say yeah you got to hit the dig where you've got three defenders in the area and you've got to place it perfectly it's got to be placed perfectly Alex Smith is going to is going to hitch two times before he throws that ball and it's late and it's in it'll place an inaccurate more times than not and that even and that's the ball game Patrick Mahomes the minute he's the the moment he sees the opening he sees everything enough and has the confidence to go now whereas whereas with like what was the good example oh then the Super Bowl there's a video out I think on on Instagram I'm a num on X where love the the defensive back love for the sea oxes talking about Drake May and he's like he's like Drake May is playing like a young quarterback where he's got to confirm that it's open and and that's him versus Stafford he was talking about yes versus Stafford yes yes Stafford or something or something yeah he's he's not like Stafford who's just who's just throwing it without even looking at it but the thing is is what he's what he really means if I'm going to break it down to the layperson would be Stafford's reading the leverage and he knows the certain point before the break of the ball or how this where the safety is going to move or what happens even late pre snap that he knows based on his experience with coverage and versus what they can do even the players adjacent to the route that he's actually going to be targeting like the guy next to it that's covering somebody else who could peel off he knows those angles well enough that he knows if I see anything different than this shape or this shape happens here and I see the receiver at this point at the top of my drop the ball's coming out like I don't even have to see it open whereas with Drake May or Alex Smith or a lot of young quarterbacks not only do they have to see the guy make the break they have to see the the guy get some separation against the corner and by then it's way too late and that's that's confidence that's the confidence part of processing is that they saw the same thing Stafford saw but they weren't confident to go let it rip they were they're like are you sure am I sure am I sure and that was that was I think you know bringing up Drake May is a really good point because as good as good as good of a season as he had didn't face a lot of really high end defenses yeah right so you get to a point where you're facing the best defensive football and you can't be laid on throws like you and you can't spend time in the pocket waiting for guys to pitch open and that's kind of what happened I think a lot in that game too is you know you you kind of see Drake's internal clock going and no one's there and he's afraid to throw them open he's afraid to throw into the shorter windows and when the window is kind of closing closing closing closing closing closing closing he didn't he didn't have an answer for and that's a very common thing for young quarterbacks and you know obviously having Josh McDaniel was a great offensive coordinator like there's gonna be sometimes when your coordinator can't give you the solutions because you might have the personnel like if you look at the personnel the pitches turned out kashan booty tomorrow Douglas Stefan digs Mac Collins like these are not massive man coverage winners anymore like kashan booty might beat you might beat you on some deep pattern some some post and back shoulders yeah back shoulders and and go balls like Stefan digs is in Stefan bigs of five years ago Mac Collins I don't know why he's the field some much in 11 personnel but he's fine but these are not guys where you're gonna be getting a ton of great separation against your witherspoons and that defense of Julian love and what they have in the back end of there so you're gonna have to take more risk in order to let those guys go make plays that you make for them and that's just not what happened and I that's the difference I think two between a Caleb Williams and a Drake man yeah right yeah where Williams will take those risk and time them oh with a little bit with a little bit better confidence and that's gonna be the next step in Drake maze game two is just just getting confident in in making plays for your playmakers on a down-and-on-based against really good defenses yeah no no doubt about that and I think that one of the things that we need to understand too that I just want to make a final point about quarterback before move on to running back is that I would argue this is something that I've kind of not been able to articulate in recent years but I've finally kind of realized what I'm I would say is this. Drake May is a good example why it's important to consider strength of schedule when evaluating an NFL talent, but I would argue that if you're evaluating a division one talent, it's not as important when you're evaluating a college quarterback as it is when you're evaluating an NFL quarterback because in college, nobody's specifically game planning towards a player. They don't have enough tape, they don't have enough time, and they're really trying to just physically dominate you and use some strategy that will fool young guys even as good as they are athletically, but they're not going, we have a book on Drake May and we're going to we're going to enact that book on you. In the NFL, after a year, they go, we have a book, we think we know what he can and can't do well, and if our personnel matches, here's the things we're going to try, if it doesn't, here's the things another team's going to try. And if you're a bad team, the difference, even though statistically, it doesn't look like there's a big difference. The margin for error difference between a good passing defense that matches up well against May and a bad defense that doesn't match up well against them is pretty stark. And that's something that I don't think evaluators or NFL analysts sometimes understand is that difference because they think it all matters, you know, or maybe it doesn't matter as much in the NFL, it matters more in college. I'd say it's the exact absolutely the opposite. And I think you see it kind of year over year with, you know, you're rookie quarterbacks entering their sophomore season of league, the two biggest ones that are the most glaring CJ Stroud and Jayden Daniels. And that's, you know, it's a part of it's on the coordinators to understand like I need to give them different solutions here. That's also part of the growth of their own game of you banked more reps. That's great for their experience. They should be able to see more and do more with the information they had at hand. However, you banked more reps in those fricking coordinators across the other sideline. They know that. And they're using that as information against you. And so that's like that counter punch that we're always talking about. And that's the important part of actually getting to that elite level is figuring out, okay, they know XYZ. How do I combat with they know? Yeah. And guys like CJ, I mean, CJ Stroud's career has gone massively down hills. It's rookie season. Jayden Daniels obviously has been hurt. But even when he was healthy this past year, wasn't the same Jayden Daniels, right? Offences had more answers to all the problems that, you know, that need to be solved. So it's like that's a huge deal when you're talking about is sending into that the upper ranks of the quarterback position for the younger guys turning into softwares. All right. So let's go on the running backs. What's a key non physical item with running backplay? I would say it's pretty simple, but it's just understanding down in distance. Yes. Like it's just so important. And it's it freaking drives me absolutely nuts when it is second and two. And you know, inside zone run, nothing is there. Okay. Just live the fight and they're down. I'm going to third and two. But so many times you guys go from, okay, I'll pass up the third and two or maybe the 15 yard explosive, but the higher probability is I get tackled for another three yard, a three yard loss. And you go from third and two to third and five, third and six. And that happens all the time. And you see that a lot. And in college, it's funny because we sometimes applaud these guys who really get athletes for getting away with it. But then they do the same thing in the NFL and they can't. They can't. They can't be able to do that. Yeah. They correct. Like they're going to applaud it in college. And oh my gosh, this is so freaking good. You're you're incredible. Keep doing that because we're you're winning us games. But what happens in the NFL is you're not going to out athlete, potentially better athletes or as good as you. If they have half a step on you, you're not going to out half a step that that's just not good. That's not how it works in the NFL. And so there's a thousand examples, but the biggest ones, the cross recent memory Dave Montgomery, Iowa State. He had a rude awakening for the Bears in the NFL when he started. And a part of it was, Dave Montgomery was so good at bouncing out runs because he was so good at negating contact. Didn't matter if you contacted him outside the numbers on third and one, he's getting the frigate first down. He's going to find a way, right? Not at the NFL level. You're not going to be doing that down the down. Say, Cone Barkley, right into that early in his career, right? Big time where, yeah, say, Cone Barkley is probably one of the freakyest athletes to ever see the position at two hundred thirty pound six feet, his physical qualities, incredible movement skills. But still, like you think you're going to run away from I am friend Warner. He wasn't doing it against Ohio State most of the time when he had to. It's just that when he broke the big run, everybody went nuts and said, look at the labels that it enables and you said the word and it's such a big deal to running back pish and it's we just enable the explosives and it doesn't matter how the hell we get him. We just want to get him. But I think it's the guys who can really just understand down in distance, live to find another down. And that's why I really love watching the Christian McAfry's of the world who people like, oh, his yards per crate, frickin stinks. I don't care. He's managing the game for that 49ers offense. That's the thing that's really important is. Before him Frank Gore. Correct. Right. It's not it's not about, okay, did you, you know, do you break a 20 yard or not? But did you keep your offense on schedule? Yes. Right. Yeah. And that's a huge deal. I love it. And that's that would have been my answer to you just to give a different one that's similar. But that I'll say that I look for that I hope to see from running backs. And it's not one that without interviewing the player, I never really truly know. I'm just looking for signs that it's likely they they've done it is that they understand box counts. Pre snap. So when you look at the box of the line of scrimmage and within five yards of the line of scrimmage, when you watch that, are they looking at the number of defenders left and right of center? And when they see shifts, the is it get redistributed? And what does that, how does that look compared to how the, where the play design is going? Because this gives you a little bit of a key as to know, who should I be watching now that the box has the box makeup as a certain way left or right of center based on where we're going to run? And where are my cutbacks likely to be? Where is the play as it's designed? And they're going to keep it this way, even the I may look at it in the coaches like where I want you to run here, but the reality of it is that it's not, it's going to suck if it if you run it here, but the worst case scenario for you is if you cut it back, you're probably going to get the same gain as if you ran play side, but there's a bigger chance that you're going to break on. And now the coach starts to trust you a little bit more because you know, you when they review the tape, they see that you saw that. Those are things that I look for as the best backs that I've seen. Have a good feel for understanding. All right, we've got three offensive players that are and against two defenders on this side who have to account for those four players. It doesn't mean they have to be, they have to come up blocks from them because part of the box count is also either a wide receiver who's motioning across, who's not going to block or the quarterback who's not going to block, but like you look at, you know, Deandre Swift, a great example of why Deandre Swift was so successful in Philadelphia before Eric B. Enemy got a hold of him and and had gave him a bit of a conceptual adjustment in Chicago. The reason he had such great success there is that Jalen Hertz was always an extra man in the box and it forced defenders to account for him possibly carrying the ball and it drew them away and it and it gave him inherent advantages between the number of offensive players versus defensive players. So when you even if it's not a situation where you have a running quarterback or one with a dangerous runner, the fact that you can diagnosis like pre snap within the first 10 seconds or within five seconds and go, okay, we've got a four on three, okay, now we've got a five on five to this side, okay, now we've got a five on three, you know, what, you know, knowing your offensive plays well enough that you that you can automatically see that and go, I'm heading here or I'm cutting back here, you know, and and I think that that's, you know, that's something that it may not be as intellectual as I just made it. it's a feel for that too. You can do this by feel if you've been playing long enough. - For sure, I think once you've banked enough reps as a back and you've ran the verse, the verse number of schemes, right? Inside zone, outside zone, pin, pull, gap, whatever. Like you kind of understand the probability of success on a given play. - Right. - Based on what the defense is showing alignment wise. But also two of matters, your own personnel, right? Do you have good guard play? Do you have a great right tackle versus a poor, run blocking left tackle? So then it makes you as a back, make those adjustments, right? It's like the joy lines when you have freaking pennies stool, right? You're gonna run to his side more often, right? So if you're a Javier Gibbs or Dave Montgomery, it's like you feel a lot more confident running behind a stool. - And the center move retired, right now, when you're playing back now, right? You feel much better about A and B gap, knowing that you know Frank is gonna be in the right position to make your run successful, but then the next year, right? You don't have that and you have tape at decker, obviously older, off-dinger. And it's like, okay, well, maybe that run isn't gonna be there. So I have to do something to make sure that Taylor's defender is a little bit more to the left so I can cut it back. Just things like that, but yeah, I think that's a great point for sure. - All right, so what about wide receiver? - Woo, wide receiver, I think wide receiver is really interesting one because if we talk about it at the collegiate level, I think the collegiate system, we can tie a wide receiver in tight end end because I think they're similar in terms of - Sure, but we're looking forward to that. - Pass catchers. - Yeah. - Collegiate system is so freaking important, right? You look at guys who come from Ohio State, Alabama. USC versus Oregon versus Tennessee versus TCU. All powerful schools, all tons of resources. I'll have a bunch of four and five stars. But how they teach the position and how the expectations for those players down to down their responsibilities could not be more different. And the success those guys have at the NFL level. TCU and Tennessee have never had a 1000 year receiver in the NFL. Never, they could think about that. Like that's crazy. I think Willie Galt was the only one with the TCU, right? - Yeah, he wants Tennessee. - Tennessee, yeah, he had like 985 yards. I looked it up. Then seconds like Juan Jennings, like at 950 or 970, right? And then you have your cordial patresons. You have your Alvin Cameras. But you're not getting like Josh Palmer, like Clint Johnston, Jalen Rager, John Knox. And you're getting a lot of guys who are who never live up to expectations, even Oregon. Like one was the last time you saw an Oregon receiver at a thousand yards. Like think about it. - A modern shot? - I don't know. Like, like seriously, it's been decades. And it changes the way you evaluate the position. But also it changes the way you look at those guys coming into the NFL with what they already know. Route depth, spacings, how to attack the ball in certain situations, how to get in a different zones and windows. All that stuff really matters because that is a teachable element of the position, right? How are you being educated? Pride Heartline does the best job in America. We know that. We know Ohio State receivers are coming to the NFL, NFL, NFL ready. We're gonna play on day one, right? Day one install, okay, they understand what we're doing. It's not a different language to them. And that's such a big boost to your long term development when you get into building day one as a professional and understand the terminology, the expectations, and all of that sort of stuff. Whereas some of the other guys, it's totally foreign. So that's a huge one, tight end the same thing, right? You get tight ends from like Iowa, right? It's been a freaking haven. And so that's a huge deal where you know there's a culture there of developing that position. And that's an NFL evaluate or an NFL manager. You know there's enough trust built in that, the prospects well educated that they will come in and learn the system quicker. We can get them on the field faster. We feel more confident in giving them more capital because they can play superior. Really big deal. You should just one for tight ends that's super important to like not many tight ends under like 640 yards. Have ever who had under 640 yards is the best season that's fully produced really well in the NFL. That's a huge one. Because then if you're a tight end and cultural bond, you're getting 1,000 yards. Like you're the focal point of your offense, right? For sure. You could have poor, you know, a poor environment like coast and loved one and injury, you know, at 649 yards, but without injury, well surpasses that obviously. But there are definitely cases like that, but I'd say the huge one is definitely just looking at offensive system and environment and how well they, you know, can wait knowledge and learn and get the next level professionals. Yeah, and I think it's definitely the difference between guys who show up well in camp and guys who actually are gonna play and produce. And I think it's a great point. I'm gonna go even more basic than that. And it's something that drives me crazy when I watch it and I go. And I realized that I believe, if I have a theory, I believe the reason that it's not emphasized as much as it is, is that there's everything's spent too much time spent on all 22. I don't mean to say too much time, but all 22 doesn't give you the opportunity to see how a receiver tracks and catches the football, whether you're a titan or a receiver, all you're seeing the X's and O's and you're seeing this all the time. So when I would see guys who were long time analysts of this game when I was coming up and going, I've had nearly 30 years of watching all 22 tape. And all 22 tape is our Lord and Savior of football analysis. And for the most part, that's true. But I grew up watching broadcast. And one of the things that I noticed over the years is that sometimes the people who were preaching the word of the all 22 couldn't figure out whether the receiver could catch a cold or not. They could run routes. They were where they were supposed to be. The, you know, all of that was fine. But whether or not they use the correct hand position based on where the route is actually the trajectory of the route would be absolutely missing. They couldn't tell you whether or not a Robert Meacham looked like he was doing an advanced calculus problem when he was running a dig route and the ball arrived at his chest. You couldn't, you know, it was like he was turning this into like quantum physics. When it was really just about, should my hands be here? Should my hands be here, you know? And have I practiced it enough to know, based on the trajectory of the ball, can I see that? And if I have trouble seeing that, do I need to get some lasex surgery that might help me fix and focus on what I need to do? Or is it something that I'm just having practiced it enough? And now I'm at this level and I'm trying to practice it, but my motor skills haven't had those years of work and years of practice to compound on itself so that it's automatic for me. So, and I remember it was, I used to watch this and I laughed 'cause I had a Sammy Cotes. I remember Sammy Cotes at the senior band. (laughing) Oh, that was that even, Brad. And I remember everyone talking about how much upside this guy had and how he was such a great athlete. And lots of talking, I'm at the sidelines and a colleague of mine who I've often talked about vaguely. I remember who would meet with me outside the senior, like outside of town because he didn't want anybody to see that he was there or he was with one team, but he's worked with two other teams and they've known him for this, but he's actually doing this now. He was a very fun person to deal with, but I remember him texting me. He was working with an AFC team at the time as a capacity of like a consultant work, basically working with scouts and analytics professionals together because he was a scout, but he was also an analytics professional and he was respected by scouts and he was trying to bridge the gap to help them embrace what was going on. But I remember him texting me. I'm at the sideline watching, he goes, he goes, you know, it always cracks me up and he was a former DB in his life, like a college DB, he goes, it cracks me up. We could and we could find out all we wanted, all we need to know about Sammy Cotes if somebody would just put his back to a coach and have the coach throw the ball over his head while he's in a standing position. We would we would know what we need to know and I wager to I would wager to bet that he would have a lot of trouble Making those plays looking up over his head as the ball comes over his head or shoulder that that's gonna be a big problem for him and And sure enough that was really the killer with him So tracking the ball not just over the shoulder with the head, but is it arriving high low? What do you do when it's in this core region of your body? You know when should you extend when should you do underhand? There is not enough focus on that and it's such a I mean I hear I hear the public whenever I show these things they're like We I coach this on my pop Warner team. How come these guys can't do this and it's like the fundamentals The fundamentals are the fundamentals and no matter how high you get People lose track of those fundamentals and the better you are at the fundamentals. Yeah, the more the sharper you the best players have Unbelievable fundamentals. It's like the only guys. It doesn't change and that's what people get You know, we're in this era of freaking the Instagram videos and the footwork stuff It's all I wash the best players can do the mundane things at the highest level. That's right And that's really what it is like the Vante Adams can give you the same five items in a release package The whole game he's in he get open you can give me your bevy of freaking 12 million releases you learned on YouTube And they're they're not going you're not going anywhere. Yeah, they're not perfect and that's the thing is We talk about you know banking wraps experience what you're trying to do Is you're trying to get to a place where there's a sense of mastery And that's what's really important right once you've done that once you that's why Philip Irving is able to Come back on at 44 years old and being a grandpa Because he had a certain level of mastery over the position right understood timing and spacing and Wanted to expect defensively It's not just the physical stuff or else there is heywood bay would be a Pro receiver. Yeah Right like that's the like that's there's so many guys that are First round receivers talent wise from a physical measurable standpoint. You never paid out because they can't put the position Yeah, yeah, and it's and it's funny, but it's that's the truth like they can do the amazing But they can't do the mundane and the mundane is so important when you watch the Andre Hopkins do the amazing Even then the technique is usually there. It's usually rock solid there. So So yeah, so we've wrapped up that We've got about 20 minutes left probably of where we want to be and we've got a lot of subjects left So I'm going to give you the choice of which one you want to do next and then and we'll do that And then I'll pick one after that if we have time and we'll see and we have another show probably of stuff We can do so we'll see how that goes cool. All right, I would I want to know who you can go first on this one Who you've been surprised by the most in this cycle in a good way I mean the easiest answer Has been Fernando Mendoza Okay, the I did not watch I didn't even know who he was until October Okay, I kept hearing his name So last week for the first time and again, I have not watched Any of his games up close other than watching the receivers and I've seen some things and I go that was a nice throw Okay, that was good, but I didn't study the decision. I didn't really study You know the ins and outs of the player So the first thing I did is I popped on his cal tape from 2024 And I was like this guy's pretty freaking good like this this guy he's aggressive down field He's got You know that vertical range is good. I think he's got a good arm. Maybe not a great arm But it's a good enough arm for a lot of what you would want to do Get him in a play action game and I think he's gonna be just fine and Clint Kubiak and You know could be very helpful in that regard and then I look at the off-platform work I look at the ability to Stay on script and move in the pocket and throw with accuracy off of that I look at all of you know the decision making and the ability to make different reads and manipulate defenders and understand The where the peripheral defender is like we talked about earlier You know where I'm I'm literally I'm looking at tailing green and athletically you're like wow look at that That's great look at the arm talent. That's great look at the fact Woo the play action fakes are beautiful, you know and then and the straightforward stuff you're like that's really good But when it's like oh he's got a him and Carson Beck if you got to throw the ball Into an area where there's possibly two or three defenders who could get to the ball from their spot based on that route Um bet against them you want to bet against the quarterback with Fernando Mendoza You can bet on him with that and that's a big difference. Garrison new garrick newsmeyer sometimes outside the hash I mean outside the numbers not so much um with an underneath defender not so much But if it's a defender coming from the opposite direction the defender coming from above Garrick newsmeyer probably can do that He probably does a pretty good job with that from what I've seen But like Beckins Beckins and green you look at those guys and you're like Yeah, that's if it's not a one-on-one their game falls apart, you know if it's a receiver that's one on possibly three or one on two It's real shaky and Mendoza wasn't that way and then I watch him run And you know he looks kind of gangly when he watch him run But I grew up in a Cleveland Browns fan who made you know Bernie Menn Bernie Cozar Oh, man, Philip Rivers look like Mo Jackson, okay? I mean, I'm just telling you that it was it was that bad But and he does look kind of gangly when he runs But he's he runs around 20 miles an hour like wait He's fast and quick for his saw I would have popped in and say the one thing that That stood out to me when I watch the tips I saw him play on my month TV bunch of times in midwest so I can I watch him fairly frequently He is so much faster than you think So much faster I want some freaking pull it up pio and just freaking Geter on the backer and the safety overplayed it and he's 20 yards downfield He looks like he's he runs like a scared goose But like you can't catch him. I mean fucking fast scared goose playing out Exactly, you know funny So yeah, I was I was surprised because I'll just say this I you know I heard people saying He's the number one quarterback by default in this class But if I were to compare where I've scored him at this point He's the number quarter he's the number one quarterback. I've seen in the past six years Yeah, and I love Caleb But I would if you had framed it with Caleb I would say Do you want the guy with more upside who might have a lower trap door just in case certain Bad factors conspire and he doesn't grow Caleb's that guy if you want the guy that you're like he's got more upside than you think With his game and he's what people think Drake may is Maybe not with quite the arm that may has but with a lot more of the Conceptual skills locked into his game You know or maybe a more maybe a better arm Joe burrow. Yeah, you know in some respects Maybe some things like you know, I think of players like that or maybe a better maybe a slightly more athletic mat Ryan You know, I think about players like that and I go I'm maybe a duck You mind you a duck. There you go. Okay. You're mind. It's me. He reminds me of Some really I could see that you reminds me a duck press guy. That's great. I'm fucking tough kid too, man Yes, he is and that's what I love about duck press guys especially early on this cruelty ran a bit more me Dude's talk. Yeah, but like even like now like duck press got just so cerebral. Yeah, because absolute just absolute surgeon Um, yeah, no kids fun man. I love that. So who's yours? Well, I was gonna stay in Indiana and go Omar Cooper Jr Because I just I just love to take but I'll go away from that and go a guy who's probably gonna be a date we pick And this this is in my opinion and we can we'll probably talk about this in the next few weeks here But like this is not a great running back class Um, at least I don't think so um about 12 backs in okay Robert Henry Jr from UTSA I liked his tape I'm the first game the first game that I turned on was an M because simply when I like the kind of big thing is when I watch tape of Small school guys right you're the mid major times. I'm like all right. Who's the biggest who's the biggest baddest wolf they played I want to see them versus the battle And holy cow he tore their ass to do what holy shit heavy I'm like I didn't expect him to look like the best player in the field like I just didn't just didn't expect it's it's a And this is the first game and they're and they're they were good this year. They're good. They're home. Yeah, like we're Like is a good team crowds riled up piled up Your mute There you he had a hundred seventy seven and two on Forkin sixteen carries yeah I'm like who is this kid and it wasn't like it was like All right, just super wide open up the sideline runs like no He he made the three tech miss climb to the second level put him on the backer Out ran the safety for 35 yards and took it to I mean I was Lord and you look at the first four games like yeah, he averaged he averaged a hundred and fifty six yards on nine and a half yards of carry And he had nine touchdowns in their first four games After that have no idea what happened in UTSA we had to talk about mid majors two is if they have two injuries up front Corked absolutely screwed especially when they've started to play better fronts, but I mean holy calm. I mean I loved His combination of quickest and power the second level. Yep. I thought he was one of the better decision makers Yep, and in terms of the ability to get out of the mud Because that happened a lot with their offensive line like especially like their interior runs they get blown up a good bit But his ability to there's a play against I think it was frickin too lame when We tech blows up Backstabs Cuts the outside and gets like 20 when most backs you're dead to rights in your toast But he has a lot of movement tools that you don't see as much for mid major backs Right, you see them from higher and power for guys like I thought That I was turning on leave you on moss in the game Does that make sense? Yes, I figured out I thought that like I would think That highly of living out of moss, but I think I thought higher rubber had your junior when I watched it And he's one of the better backs in the cycle my opinion. I totally agree He was my I sent us a early fall scouting report to my RSP subscribers in the newslettal newsletters With a full scouting report on Robert Henry because I'd finished that report basically by early October I think it late September early October sure and Was like you're looking at a James Cook type of talent like in terms of running the football he's that kind of player and Yeah, he's gonna be in the conversation for me as people as a priority pick For you based on value. He's probably gonna be a priority value pick I haven't with someone that you know You know, he can run inside zone. He can run gap. He can definitely work outside for you He's he's a I think the receiving skills are pretty good. I think if I remember correctly I'll have to look at what I had him as a blocker, but let's see what I have Yeah blocking needs a little bit of work But the past catching ability is strong. So is a guy Yeah, it's been do it frequently. Yeah, but it was there I got to that's kind of what I wrote to it's it was there. I mean look like it's It's really just a usage based thing collegially too. It's like is that how your offense is operating and they they didn't that you TSA he wasn't a big time receiver obviously yeah out of the back field, but yeah, no, I mean he was yeah He was awesome. I mean he was a lot of fun to watch. I love that call. I haven't watched him in months But he was he's been a favorite like yeah So I'm so glad you liked him to like He's 5 9 206 so he's not the biggest guy at least that's the list of height and weight before The east West Rhinegame. He might be weight. He might be different at that point sure, but I don't care if he's 195 No, he runs so smart. It's fine. Okay cool. So let's We got a little bit of time left so we'll save Emmett Johnson talk We'll save Matt Nagy and Jackson Darn I think we need to probably go into detail on both of those So let's just end it on this I saw something last week that intrigued me There are some of some of our fantasy sphere and draft experience were like you know with the way things are going in the NFL with 12 and 13 personnel they got to put wide receivers in the slot sometimes to play in that role or put them inside and Punch them up in there and Or that when they do play the slot, you know It's an important position because they're gonna get the most targets and the widest range of targets So let's look back at receivers in college and who had the highest Snapshare rate from the slot. They had guys like I'm on Rossane Brown. They had You know AJ Brown You know JSN You know a lot of the big heavy hitting names that you would see recently and like the lowest guy on the list in terms of percentage snap was Malik neighbors as in terms of guys who've had success in the pros and my neighbors still like spent 58% of his time in the slot and the point they were making was Let's look at McKay lemon and carnell tape and the and they looked at McKay lemon and McKay lemon spends the shit ton of time in the slot So he passed the test of the threshold. I think carnell tape was something like 18% or something or 14% there we go So they're like ooh this guy he's only he's the classic X Everybody's really enamored with the classic X but maybe we should be a Little wary about that especially with the way where things are so I get the value of Modeling things like that, but then I think to myself. All right, so can I easily find guys? Who didn't play much in the slot? Who got featured in the slot later? And you know when they got to the NFL and did just fine because to me it's more about can you run around can you catch football? And yes, the slot is harder in terms of diagnosing things, but if you show me enough skill as a route runner I you know, I'm usually pretty good that they're gonna be able to translate to the slot, you know It's a need be and they're going also so the first guy I thought of was Drake London Drake London played outside so I looked at him and and I looked at his snap shares and with London True enough his first two years. I think it was two two to three years two years That's what it was he had like 59% and 40 something percent in the slot and you're like that's enough That's good that means that he can do it But then you look at like then that's the percentage but not the production like those two years combined equaled what he did in his final season And his final season he spent 94% of the time outside So you're you know, so I'm like is it about that they can do the slot work or is it the amount of time they really spent So then I thought can I find another example and I thought yeah, I bet I can find another example I'm gonna give you one right now I just and I looked him up before the show. I didn't even think about it again So this last week I saw it I go Drake may I Drake London that's a good example fine. Let me think of another though and I thought Jamar Chase Let me see what Jamar Chase was at Jamar Chase played two years in school now his first season he He had like 300 yards receiving so he really didn't have much and I and unfortunately the system that I have that the the database that I had didn't track his 2018 season but even if he was at 80% in the slot I mean there's a difference between catching 300 yards worth of balls and catching 1700 yards worth of balls the next year okay, so the year that he had 1700 yard season He spent a total of 11% of the time in the slot You know he was 80% wide on one side 3% wide on the other and then a total of oh let's see 10 15 17% everywhere else you know, it was basically you know, so I look at that and I go We see Jamar Chase in the slot all the time and and In Cincinnati. Yeah, so I like where that stats going But my thought would be Brandon. It's like if you look at the route runner And you look at what they can do can they tell a story can they read the field can they read a defense Um and look at the leverage and understand how to adjust Even from the outside Then I I'm gonna be confident that they can probably play from the slot if they want them to I know that carnal Tate may not be While I like him as a Justin Jefferson type of player. I think he's more fluid than people say I think that he can, I think he can tell a story and I think he's so fundamentally sound like he and lemon, he and lemon are automatic with tracking a football and attacking a football. Like as clean at those two things as I have seen in a while from some guys. So, you know, my thoughts are, I wouldn't, you might favor Mekai lemon based on that production. If you're, especially if he lands on a team that's going to use him in the slot and you know they're going to go slot heavy, totally cool with that idea. But I wouldn't necessarily bash Tate because he doesn't fit that model. Yeah, no, I completely agree with that. I think it's, honestly one of those items that's overblown. Right. Because here goes this, you look at the NFL now and it's a lot more 12 and 13 personnel than in years past. And I think we're trending towards that with, you know, we're not going to get into it. But we're trying towards that more so because you're attacking nickel corners, right? You're, you're attacking different personnel groupings. High safety's right? You're trying to make it so you can control the game. And in doing so, you essentially kick your extra receiver off the field. You put an action tie down and off you go. So you're not seeing a lot of, you know, a lot receivers quote unquote play in 12 and 13 because unless like you're in, in twins, you're not inside. So you're going to have to learn how to run routes on the boundary. What ends up happening is now, and I've noticed this, offenses are really focusing on the skill set of their best receiver. Now that offenses have like three good receivers, or even sometimes two good receivers, but mostly it's one guy is great. And the other guys are good enough to start, but you want to get the game plan is sitting around the guy who was great. Like Drake London is a fantastic example, right? The goal is to get Drake London the ball in as many ways as we possibly can. Darna Muni is awesome. Outpict is awesome, but they are not Drake London. J.S. said is the best example we can give, right? It's moved around the formation. He's off the back field inside outside, motioning in, motioning out. Doesn't really matter where he's playing because his skill set is what the offense revolves around the passing game. And so same with carnal tape, everything is just so clean that he wins on the outside. Why would we bump him inside? You have another alpha receiver and Jeremiah Smith. So if you have a player that can win on the boundary, 9 times out 10, you're not bumping him inside. You're just not doing it. You rather take the one on one. That's what you're getting. Things are a little bit muddier in the middle of the field. You take the boundary out because he's going to win his match of 9 times out 10 if he's a good player and carnal tape is. So I'm, for me, I don't look at that as much. I look at how they win. Can they, can they win across the field? Can they beat a corner outside the numbers? Can they high point? Are there items that lead me to believe that they can run routes from any formation? Because that's the biggest thing, right? If you are a boundary only receiver, well, then you were in massive trouble in the NFL. Yeah, Coleman, right? Xavier Ligat. These are guys that are boundary only guys because they don't have the movement skill play inside. And that's really what it is. If you're a skilled enough mover to be able to diagnose coverage, understand how to change an alter route depth based on what the defense gets, but also to how the design of the play allows you to. And that's great, but if you can't, in the law of the movement skill to do it, you can't play inside. Like, can Coleman, in Xavier Ligat, where it's supposed to be a thousand yard of sewers by now? That's their two organizations thought. Yeah. But the reason they aren't is they can't play in another area of the field. They just are good enough movers. There you have it. You know, I mean, listen. This is a fun show. Yeah, you know, without a shadow of a doubt, I think we had a good time with it. I think we're going to have more that we're going to really want to dig into. So thanks for Brandon, as always, for partnering up with me. Absolutely. You know, check him out at Angelou's analysis. You can check me out of the rookie scouting portfolio. And, you know, by the work, you, you guys, you know, this is a taste of what we do. And you're going to, you're going to be more than happy with the outcome of your purchase. So, you know, thanks again, everybody. And we will see you in a couple of weeks.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Quarterback success hinges on non-physical traits like game management, tempo control, and adapting to defensive looks over a full game.
  2. Young quarterbacks often fail by trying to be heroes in the "black zone" (inside their own 20-yard line), passing up checkdowns and taking unnecessary risks.
  3. The key difference between average and elite quarterbacks is "processing confidence"—the ability to identify the highest probability outcome and execute immediately, rather than hesitating or waiting for receivers to get open.
  4. Strength of schedule matters more for evaluating NFL quarterbacks than college ones, because NFL defenses game-plan specifically against a player's weaknesses.
  5. The transition from rookie to sophomore season is critical, as both the quarterback and opposing coordinators have more tape and experience to exploit or counter tendencies.

Summary:

This transcript covers a discussion on non-physical traits for scouting quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. The primary focus is on quarterbacks, where the ability to manage a game—controlling tempo, reading defenses, and adapting over four quarters—is deemed more important than physical talent. Examples like Josh Allen, who took time to develop, and failed prospects like Zach Wilson or Trey Lance illustrate that physical gifts alone cannot sustain NFL success.

The conversation emphasizes "processing confidence," where elite quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes or Matthew Stafford trust their pre-snap reads and throw with anticipation, whereas younger players like Drake Maye hesitate, waiting for receivers to separate. This leads to late throws and turnovers. The "black zone" (inside the 20-yard line) is identified as a common struggle for young quarterbacks, who often try to extend plays heroically instead of taking safe options.

Strength of schedule is argued to be more crucial for NFL evaluation because defenses game-plan specifically against a player's tendencies, as seen in the sophomore slumps of CJ Stroud and Jayden Daniels. The discussion also touches on the importance of offensive coordinators providing adaptable solutions and quarterbacks learning to counter defensive adjustments.

FAQs

The ability to manage a game mentally and emotionally, including understanding defensive looks, adjusting plays, and making high-probability decisions down to down.

The black zone refers to situations where a quarterback is backed up near their own end zone. Young QBs often try to be heroes by forcing plays instead of taking checkdowns or throwing the ball away, leading to sacks or turnovers.

Processing confidence is identifying the best decision and executing it immediately without hesitation. Elite QBs like Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford trust their reads and throw before a receiver is open, while less confident QBs wait to confirm separation, which is often too late.

In college, opponents rarely game-plan specifically for a QB, so schedule strength matters less. In the NFL, after a season, teams create a book on a QB and tailor their defense to exploit weaknesses, making matchup and scheme analysis critical.

They often lack game management skills, such as reading defenses, taking the high-percentage play, and avoiding hero-ball. Physical traits alone don't guarantee success without the mental and emotional ability to run an offense efficiently.

A veteran like Rivers simplifies options at the line, focusing on the most probable outcome and making quick decisions. Young QBs often see all possibilities, hesitate, and try to force low-percentage plays, leading to mistakes.

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