Commanders 2026 Preview: Can Jayden Daniels Take the Next Step?

Welcome to the acclaimed podcast, The Deep Died, featuring your esteemed hosts, Andy Monitor and Drew Dinsick, powered by Betts Burns. Welcome to The Deep Dive. NFC East continues with the third choice, the Washington commanders, Andy. This team is not that far removed from an NFC championship game appearance, but a young quarterback on a rookie contract. And yet, I stare here at their two make the playoffs odds. Yes, is two to one. Currently, they're win total seven and a half eight to win the NFC East is far cry from where we were last year. It's like plus four 71. What did I miss? The roster, the coaching staff. I mean, there's been some some small turnover here and there around the edges. But what of the main characters here has changed in the course of a year to where the commanders have gone from can they take a step forward and challenge in the, you know, in the NFC to maybe they'll make the playoffs if things break, right? Yes, it all just predicated on one guy and maybe the coaching staff a little bit, I suppose, and what we saw from the downfall man, they won five games last year. Our two teams that were in the NFC title game two years ago, one of them won five games and didn't finish last in their division because of the giants existing. And the other one did finish last in their division, despite winning nine games for the Lions. So it's crazy how you have that the NFC or was it was it? No, the Lions lost to the the Niners. In my head, I keep putting the Lions in that game because I think they deserve better. But they got asked they got the the command two years ago, the commanders beat the Lions in very impressive style on the road. And then they got asked by the Eagles, but the Eagles were the long stars at the time. And the Eagles were fine last year. So yeah, the drop off, they're fine. They're what 11 and 6 won the division. So a lot of people thought commanders, yeah, commanders 2026 thoughts who the fuck known says Sam that Sam is a commander's fan, but yeah, the I just bring up the Lions. And I guess in my mind, that was the NFC title game because it was fun, but that game was kind of wild. And you were so cold on the Lions coming in last year. And you're right. You played them to miss the playoffs and you're right. But I don't think, and I have to go back and I kind of want to pull transcripts on last year to see what we said about the commanders. I think we said that Gio Nio's is already a top five quarterback. I think we had like, there was a lot of hopeful optimism. I like, I can pull it in the spec. Do you want me to try to pull it out of my memory? I think that the commentary was Cliff Kingsbury was running a, a quick, a quick game, get the snap off quickly, put Jaden Daniels in shotgun, snap the ball and let Jaden Daniels make a good decision. And he was running an extremely extremely efficient offense with quick passes and scrambles that were just diabolically efficient on the ground. And it was like, man, if he's already processing the NFL at this speed in his rookie year, like there's absolutely scope for him to continue to, you know, take a step forward. But at the same time, we previewed the commanders. There was an ongoing contract dispute with Terry McClaren and their depth chart for wide receivers was painfully thin. Their depth chart for skill position in general was painfully thin. And of course, Terry McClaren didn't go to camp. It ultimately was less impactful than you would have thought for the entire first half of the season. Jaden Daniels entire season got derailed in week two when they, we got his knee got blasted against the Packers, if I remember correctly on Thursday night football, like we were barely into week two of the season and the commanders, you know, this was like a man like it might be over already. So it was a, it was a pretty quick demise and it was all kind of predicated on the fact that Jaden Daniels got got beat up. And I honestly didn't honestly, I honestly didn't think there was scope for that or at least I didn't, while you were preparing myself mentally. This, this will be a fun exercise. Now I might, I think I'm going to do this for the teams going forward. Because so on on YouTube, you can pull up the transcript next to it. It automatically takes your voices, builds a transcript. So I copy and pasted that into cloud code and said, read this quick, give me a quick snopsis of how we felt about the commanders last year. And yeah, we were fucking rosy. Oh, of course, they bought in fully that 2024 run was no fluke. Jaden Daniels was those, or they said that the season worked 100% because they hit on their quarterback. Praise piled up, smarter than expected, elite decision making, boys accuracy and no huddle, drew floated a mobile Tom Brady comp. Even said the skill set was what separates a type top five quarterback. They pushed back of the regressions narrative. Yes, Washington was historically good on fourth down and had good injury luck, fourth down luck. But they argued that that was a repeatable skill. Concerns though were his slight frame. He takes too many hits. We joked about the RGT thing. And the no huddle speed as real schematic edge that made him hard to defend might have been hard to keep up with. Yeah, I think all of that was reasonable with the exception of, you know, he got hurt in game two and it all went. Yeah, and then he got hurt in game five and game seven and they were all injuries. Yeah. And I mean, and now, I mean, now, you know, Cliff Kingsbury's moved on. I got to pull my notes up about exactly what, you know, David Bluff's, David Bluff, blow, Mr. Plow. David Blow, exactly what his like, you know, his development was as a coach. But, but yeah, it definitely felt like some of the investments that the team made in a person else, from a personnel standpoint didn't especially work out. They brought in a lot of old players. Those players are aging out now. It looks like with the strength of the roster and the way that the market evaluates this team that they've kind of squandered, Jayden Daniel's rookie contract. Yeah, my blow notes aren't rosy. Like he was an assistant quarterback's coach, you know, we know he's existed as a, he was a lion. First time NFL play collar, you're not excited about that at times. Expected to keep the spread slash RPO heavy structure on Daniel's mobility. So more of the same, but maybe not as good as what we saw from Kingsbury who I couldn't remember if they fired him or not. I'm like, did I do the quitter? They fired and I, it was both. It was like, yeah, they both just cited mutual parting voice. Yeah, what we're just done here was a conscious un coupling. I'll Chris Martin, Gwyneth Baltero. So he is gone. He's off in LA. Dan Quinn still back. Spends how you feel. I think Dan Quinn is probably a pivot point for a lot of people. You feel about him over the course of the last two seasons. Well, he is a defensive minded guy and they had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year. So consider me unimpressed. They did bring in again, Dan Quinn is your DC is your de facto DC because of what he is and how he works, but their new defensive coordinator is from the defensive back room under Mr. Flores and Minnesota. So bringing in somebody from a good defense. Maybe that'll be interesting, but I'm not nervous. You can be wrong in this team every year, I guess. I definitely didn't have them going to the NFC championship game the year before. I'll tell you that much. Yeah, just every year we're going to be around. I did have, I did have Jayden Daniels rookie the year 7 to 1. But you remember when we went to bet fashion did the Flash, the awards podcast. Yeah, he was 7 to 1 rookie the year at the time, which is crazy. Caleb Limbs was like 2 to 1 or plus 150 or something. Anyway, Jayden Daniels I still think like last year to me has to be an incomplete. I don't think you can really evaluate his body of work and divorce it from the context of the seriousness of the injuries he was dealing with. I don't think they were ever especially honest about how badly he got hurt in that green Bay Packers game. They were still 3 and 2 until they had to go to plan B, which was Marcus Mario. He ended up starting 8 games for them. 2 and 6. It's not the sign of a good season. No, no. Close loss to the Bears and it all just unraveled from there. Offense could never even come close to keeping up with deficits created by bad defense. And really maybe that's where the criticism of Dan Quinn. What are you bringing to the table if you are unable to prevent your opponents from getting into the high 30s low 40s? week in week out, right? Like that stretch where the season fell apart for them. 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. You gave up 44 to the Cowboys, 28 to the Chiefs, 38 to the Seahawks, 44 to the Lions. Like, yeah, there's some very, very good offenses in that mix, but those are like, that doesn't matter who your quarterback is Daniels or Mario, your deep, deep trouble. You're over time lost to the Dolphins, 16 to 13 in week 11 was a sick of Orchidness were done. Who was the quarterback for the Dolphins that week too? Oh, no, was it it was not we're you're asking me like, you know it was not to was in that to I'm not sure that it was that was to for sure. I'm not 100% sure was I will will was his name was to it was to it was to it that makes it way later way later. Okay, that makes me a lot better. But it's still like that. I was and also it was in Madrid. Oh, yeah, that's right. I forgot about that burn stadium burn bow, right? The yeah, but you know, it's it was it was a bad winning that game. What's him going to help you that would have gotten you a 4 and 7. You're still done. It was a bad decision to I think bring Daniels back. What other games did he start later in the season when they were completely out of out of reach? Do you remember? They brought him back to start week nine against Seattle. They brought him back again to start week 14 for some reason. It's a good defense to play against. I'm fun of that. Well, about my Minnesota week 14 game 13 for them. Your season is over over dead done then dusted. Why why try to mount there to play at Minnesota in a 31 0 loss by the way. The week after Minnesota was shut out. He played in games weeks 1 2 5 6 7 9 and 14. That is a very disjointed list. And obviously the you know, the three separate injuries. And I think that's again, that's why I'm so sketched out. I'm so cold on them because of the injuries. The fact that it was multiple injuries. The fact that they were kind of not super forthcoming about the severity of them. But the fact that it was a knee a hamstring and an elbow. He's he's got like a lifetime of injuries already in two years because he had you know, the chest stuff week or year one. I feel like he took a knock to the head at some point to he's had a lot. And people are you know, shit all over Anthony Richardson for oh man. He got hurt right away. I've been like, Jamie Daniels had a great year and that team was a lot of fun. But man, over the course of just two seasons, he's been hurt a lot. Didn't really have a known for body. He's a little slight. It's been a little girthier like me. Yeah, Dan Quinn probably deserved to be fired for the decision to start. J Daniels week 14 alone. How poor his defense played last night. That's where Kingsbury laughed. He's like this, this place is a mess. It's like this isn't going well. I'm just going to take another year in Thailand. Try to get another offensive coordinator job next year. Yeah, he went from rehabbing his was he assistant coach of the year that year before he might have been. Anyway, yeah, it was a it was a pretty broad unwinding. I don't really know even how you like what what do you point to on the defense as far as why things failed so aggressively for them coverage. Coverage was all world bad and it's not looking like it's taking some big step forward. But they, you know, and some of the draft picks they made in the secondary like St. Louis still wasn't great. It was the guy that's not even there anymore from like two years ago. I'm trying to get a corner that they brought in. They haven't been great at identifying and bringing in good pieces defensively through the draft or free agency. And yeah, it's it was a historically bad past defense. As you mentioned, some of those big numbers they got put up against them. Some of that shit was garbage time where the other team was winning and they just well, I mean, we're trying to slow down, but you're you're that porous. We're still just scoring it. The only team with the worst past defense by EPA last year was the jets. And I don't know if you remember the jets numbers, but I don't even think you can trust those like by the final frame of the season, the jets were like actively trying to lose. I think correct me if I'm wrong, but three of the top five total EPAs in a single game by a quarterback last year came against the jets in the final quarter of the season. Like they were actively not trying to defend the past and they still barely finished behind the commanders, which is a bad bad sign for the commanders. So because the commanders were in any of the defensive minded head coach who is trying to protect his job. Yeah, thanks. Probably a little bit of hot sea at that point. Not good. So I don't know if the market's right. And this team is seven and ten this year. I would assume Dan Quinn moves on. I think and you know, I think there's definitely some serious questions to ask about Adam Peters and the way he has utilized his, you know, opportunity to put a talented roster around an elite quarterback on a rookie deal. You know, for most of the time when you have this type of situation, you look around and you're like, wow, wow, that, wow, strength, strength, star, star, holy smokes. How did they get this, you know, type of a team? And that's not what exists here at all. Like now you call it. The brought in Martian the trade was that mid season trade, I think. And then he didn't start for like the first four games he was on the roster. It's like, ah, not quite there yet. Yeah, that's right. Now he's got, I mean, at least from a pro-peaters, I don't know if a pro-peaters is something I'd say, giving them some credit. They are jettisoning some of the aging players and the team that are like, well, yeah, talk to me through, talk me through roster turnover. Raster and again, they had a high pick at least. So that's fun. You get to go out there and get a piece. You went and got a middle linebacker, day one middle linebacker, all American, sunny styles. How good is he have to be to warrant picking that off ball linebacker that I guess like, yes, to be, you're right. Yes, to be the hero and he probably has to be from stopping linebacker this year. Because I mean, he should, he should lift the run defense. But you have so many other problems that I guess it's fine. They did draft no second rounders because of trades that have happened and trades they made. But so it's pretty light draft class outside of styles. Their next pick was 71st and Tony O'Williams from Clemson. His guy is going to be on the edge of the the wide receiver depth chart. Maybe a slot guy. Maybe your third or fourth wide receiver here depending. So the thing is it's not like a super strong roster. So he's probably fine. And then their next pick is in the fifth round. Pass rush depth, edge piece from Tennessee, Joshua Joseph's sixth round running back from Penn State, short yardage guy running back depth. Maybe makes the roster because it's a veteran committee and you can always get rid of a veteran if you want to try to see what this kid has. A center in the sixth round from Michigan State Developmental Center. And then well guy, I don't usually have names in the seventh round popped me. But another former gofer in Athens. Caliah Manus. Cali, I never could say this guy's name. It's a long Greek name, but quarterback from Rutgers. I don't think that's going to move the needle either this year. Caliah Manus. Caliah Manus. Yeah, it was a it was a year of turnover. They went free agent shopping again. They brought in some guys that we were like really, like Rashad White, Van Jefferson, really. I don't know that they're going to make any impact on this team personally. Clavian Cheson feel like they bought the absolute top on him. They might have bought the top on Amika Robinson. Robertson, excuse me, they probably bought the top on Rasool Douglas and Akila Wither Spoon. There's been kind of two seasons now buying the top on guys who are a little washed. And I think it's worth kind of understanding and reflecting on the fact that the Jaden Daniels experience is a rookie elevating this team to competitive status. It did cover up a lot of warts on this fran, you know, from a personal standpoint in terms of where all of the holes were. And in two seasons of shopping in the free agency market, I don't think Peters has made great decisions. A Daffy Away. that's a good move. He can play he can play. He can play. He can play inside he can play outside. He's going to add. He's additive to your past rushed. That's nice. Leo Chanel. He's going to play. Yeah. you know. you know. You pair. I can't tell you man. I didn't think they needed to go for these swing for these guys. Like they had a good they have like a couple of good young players and Dorns Armstrong when he was available for them last year. Freaking was crushing as far as creating pressure. I didn't know I was I was a little surprised that the guys you're mentioning are going to contribute in the D line, which was not where the weakness was in my opinion. Well, and that's where I wonder what the new defensive coordinator and I'm guessing your head coach realizing where he stands as far as having a job 12 months from now knowing maybe I got to make some wholesale changes to how things work on the defensive side of the ball. And I'm going to listen to my new guy and see what we can mash up together. So really don't know what we're going to look at, but you know, they went and got Nick Cross from Indy and the safety. Like you mentioned, Amik Robertson is more of a nickel guy. So the real real problem where they had in the secondary, you bring in Amik Robertson and were so Douglas. Gas like you might have some good end-dressures, but you're going to be behind it. It's the same thing we said about the giants, you know, a half hour ago. Hey, and obviously much to a lesser extent, but you could have some decent ad-trushing here as the other team is running the ball because they roasted you for 315 yards passing in the first half. It does kind of feel like that. We'll see. They resigned pain. So could be decent up. Can you tell me anything about D'Arente Jones, the defensive coordinator who's taking over? Not really. He was a secondary guy with the Vikings. He was a defensive backscotch under Flores. He is again a first coordinator. It's a first-time play-caller. Like it's with Disroster and these coaches. It feels like a high volatility team with a super low floor. If none of this stuff works out, they finish behind the giants. That's your floor. Yeah. I think 32nd and defense is not out of the wrong possibility. I mean, it's more talented roster than that. But yeah, the secondary looks like trouble to me. This looks like a unit that could truly struggle. And honestly, I think marrying a guy from the Flores mold with Disroster is spooky. David Baw was the quarterbacks coach for two years of the Jaden Daniels of Splowl. He was the quarterbacks coach for two years to the Jaden Daniels experience. Obviously, he has a lot of understanding of familiarity of his strengths and where he needs to go development wise to continue to take steps forward. I don't know, man. I'm just going to hold my breath and hope we get 17 healthy games from Jaden Daniels. If that happens, this team is probably on the fringes of a playoff spot. If it doesn't, then burn it all down. I haven't heard of this kind of coach. Assistant quarterbacks coach. What's he the assistant quarterbacks coach? He was the assistant quarterbacks coach. He was the assistant to the assistant offensive coordinator. He's taking a big step up here. We'll see how that goes. Wow. Wow. Wow. 30 year old undrafted quarterback out of Purdue spent four or five seasons in the NFL as a backup. It's a lot of famously had a couple starts, Mr. Rulow. And I started a Thanksgiving big game. Does that sound right to you? Was that was NFL moment of fame was? I forget. He also played for the Minnesota Vikings. Either way, just the brown. He's going to be blind. He was on some practice squads. A little bit of a trial by fire here. So I guess let's talk about the positive. So the offense here has a full off season of Terry McLean. He is a difference maker. His chemistry with Jaden Daniels is unquestionable. They have good pass pro led by an absolute stalwart at left tackle and Larry Tensel. I think that he's got, you know, if again, if you have a healthy Jaden Daniels, he's got the potential to have a top 10 offense, but he's going to be learning on the fly. So maybe a little half baked to start the season and fully baked once we get into October November. Let's keep that in mind when we look at the schedule. The general read here though is if this is not a top 10 offense, then this is not a seven win team. Yeah. And just real quick, I did want to mention some of the losses the team had to their roster. Hit it. But it's but Sean Lademore. Who's he played for now? He doesn't. He does Bobby Wagner. Who picked him up? Doesn't. Von Miller. Same question. Actually, didn't Bobby Wagner retire? Siak? I think he did go like, I don't want there's. Von Miller's accurate. Steve will say I'm ill. A lot of lot of Wow. I'm cutting for God. Cutting the facts. We're wearing the commanders jerseys last year. Okay. They weren't every game. But the. Yeah. The. Yeah. The starting center. He's pretty good too. Yeah. He's a swap on the interior that they're going to have to figure out. But a lot of the losses were just like, yeah, it's a hundred. Okay. And chat low on. Terima. Claren. Terima. Claren. It's one of those things. If you don't see the guy play, you get. Yeah. He had a bad season. I think he's still a difference maker. He's a wider sugar one. We'll see. The numbers you want to go through him? Yes. I was anchored high on OC quarter rack last year because of what we saw in year one. And I have to stay kind of in that ballpark because I think there was a bit of an incomplete in the data set from last year. And by all accounts, Jayden Daniels is having a happy and healthy offseason. It is going to be 100% ready to go week one. So I was at a seven and a half going into last year. I've downgraded, but not a lot. I'm at a 6.7 right now. How did it was? This was a this was a soul searching wrestle with how much do you downgrade one season of poor off before you go a week one number. Again, that's what we're trying to go. What is a fair for week one? And I went I went lower and I will preface this was when we first started doing this. We all said, you can't grade your quarterback without your offensive coordinator. Correct. One in the same. So when I make my quarterback numbers, I take into account skill level, but also how he will be deployed and how the scheme is going to get the best out of him. And I'm very much in the dark on I guess it's going they're going to try to just, you know, do more of the same. Well, they said they're going to use a lot of under center, which I kind of really hope not. Like maybe that helps Jayden Daniels stay healthier, but he was so good when he got to see the whole field and make those quick decisions. I don't know. Yeah, if they stick with the RPO heavy stuff and you know, it's a state here's a spread offense and go make stuff happen and try not to get killed. Sure, but we'll see because it's the first time play collar. And I went with a 5.3 just to get it's not only that but I have, you know, I gave him your I gave him a bump for having a year. I can go find it. What the end of last year, where did you have a guy like Baker Mayfield? That's interesting. I'm pulling it up right now. And of last, I'm just trying to I'm trying to anchor where you were with a 5.3. Like what would what? Baker at the end of the year. My QB OC number for Tampa Bay to close the year out was a four. Four. Okay. So your there was some struggle for us. A comparable number to this. A five-ish. CJ Stroud. Stroud, I had a little higher. I was going to say somewhere in the somewhere in the Chicago range. Somewhere in the Pittsburgh range. Now that feels bad. Baltimore, roughly, I had golf as a sixth closest to using if this is correct. Okay. And I'm on team Ramsford. I'm going to share this Zachary at Ramsford number one. FC Edel right there. What was your Seattle out of curiosity? 10.5. For Donald and Keith Clint, QVAC. Yeah, I think there's like a seven. Man, I had to, still it was, it was very hard to like, even when they were doing it, it was so hard to believe and Donald at the end of the, I think I downgraded Donald at the end of the year, just strictly based off the fact that I watched him play those last two games with the Vikings. And I knew I'm just like, I can't keep him this high because it's going to come crashing down again. And obviously he ended up performing well, but yeah, I'm at a 5.3. He was, he was a top five quarterback two years ago. It was a rack. You, you call it an incomplete. That's fine. But me hamstring dislocated elbow. It's, he's reportedly fully healthy. We'll see if you dislocated elbow was his non throwing arm is his seal. Yeah, thank God for that. His ceiling is, his ceiling is obviously much higher. But a big, big, a, demarrot for bluff. Okay. Okay. Okay. Where would you have been at if Cliff Kingsbury came back? Little higher, although, but can it was tough and incomplete. I suppose I'd have to anchor it on the fact that he called a pretty good offense in 24. Yeah, I mean, I'd be higher. I'd be more like a six, six to quarter. Okay. I think it's a full point for Kingsbury. So I'm, I'm potentially out of bounds high. That's excellent. Or it looks good. He's healthy and I'm low. And again, I'd say like this is probably the floor. If he stays healthy in place, even with a bad OC, this is the floor. I'm probably going to have 10 quarterback OC numbers that are higher than us. And that feels correct to me. He's going to be like right around 1112. This is my 17th rank to 1 right now. You're far enough along the, you're, you're there. Not everything's not everything's 100% complete, but I did enough, I did enough rudimentary getting my numbers right. So I can look at rankings because I like that. So roughly metal the back right now. Do you take gin Daniels and blow over Philly's situation with Hertz and forget who the guy now is. Yeah, that's a good question. I'm not trying to name that. I have that similar similar. Okay. Yeah, it's pretty close. Manion Sean Manion. They always have an coordinator though. I'm guessing you would take a DAC and Shaddy. DAC Shaddy Clayton Adams over. Jane Dennis. Yep, that's a six. That's a six right now. I'm not sure if you're with that. Actually, six points. If I drop my six point seven for the quarterback OC number, the whole floor for my ratings fall apart for the commanders. They drop so far. If I use your number 5.3. Yeah, the commanders are there like a there are seven and 10 six and 11 seven and 10 team. I'm at 98 nine with my number for them. Terry and the gang. As I like to call them. I'm at four. Mostly because the gang is not really impressed me. That is. Yeah, that's kind of exactly where I'm at to the gang. Is tough to hang with a conco or shot white as a past catching back. Crosky merit. Do you think people call him bill? Am I too hard on reshawed white? Is you can actually matter. I think he's going to catch a bunch of balls. Yeah, I think he's going to be a big part of. I think he's going to be a big part of the game. Exactly where all the balls are going if Terry's covered. Yeah, Terry's an alpha. Terry's great. He's borderline. White receiver one. Do you think Traylon Berks is really going to get snaps? Miss seven games. That rolls going to go to Deami Brown. Right. Please. Somebody is going to have to. I think it will find out. There'll be a. Kind of like kind of like Deami Brown. I don't know anything about Antonio Williams. I'm assuming that that's going to be your one two three. I think it's going to go to Deami Brown. Sure. Chigga Kong will. Man, I don't have a huge bottom half from this. Bottom third tight end, I would say tight end situation. Back up everything. Back up scares me. Yeah. The skill group. I may be even higher to four. Terry is keeping that thing afloat. If he gets hurt, it drops like a two. He's doing a lot of work there. So I'm at a 4.3 which is have stone hands. Yeah. Patrick's correct. What's your. Oh line number for this group. 4.6. Okay. Higher. Higher than I thought it would be I guess times, but. Even with some aging curve built in. You have a good left tackle. Yes, you do. You have. First rounder from last year. I mean, I think he's. He graded pretty well for me. Yeah, Connerley. Connerley. Yeah. Yeah. I kind of think he can play. Cosme. This is another really good tackle situation. Yeah, it's. It's dragged down a little by last year's numbers. When. Some guys, I think we're in and out. Connerley was on a, you know, learning curve. Cosme only played nine. Yeah, there were some guys a bit some time. Yeah, I think it's dragged down a little from last year. But if you just the output from last year, but if you look. Kind of the some of the parts. This is. This is a team that can get average offensive line production, maybe even above that if it starts to show up. Yeah, okay. I met five exactly for them. So we're kind of an agreement. This is an average. Yeah. All right. That puts me as a. 56th percentile offense. So better than average, largely just because I have a almost a, you know, 67th percentile rating for the quarterback OC situation, because I love Jaden Daniel so much, apparently. It's going to end up being kind of in the 11 to 15 range for me. So I think that's what I think is the most important thing to do. So I closed my 2025 rankings. I closed my 2025 rankings. I'll pull them up again. the only teams lower were the BINGLES, the Giants, the Panthers, the Cardinals, and the Niners. Who were really struggling. Some of those teams were struggling. And none of those teams are a lot lower. Obviously, the BINGLES were got 20/9 percentiles. It was really not keen on that the BINGLES were putting out at the end of the year. Well, in the middle of the season, they were absolutely like, couldn't watch them. They were so bad, but they got better by the end of the year. We'll get to them another day though. I finished the season with the Jets as the worst defense by Margin. And yeah, I mean, I was 30. I was just under 30th percentile. This coverage unit was grading as a 1.7 for me at the end of the season last year. Personnel that they have put together, that's upgraded to a four, but I might be missing something there. Where's your coverage number? You don't know. I don't know. Yeah, Internet just kicked out. It hasn't done that in ages. And the first day back doing podcasts for the longest time, Internet, craps out twice. I have to talk to Mr. Spectrum about that, but go ahead with your point. I finished the season last year with the commanders as a 1.7 on coverage. I've upgraded them to a four heading into the season. And I have worried that I am a little bit bullish on that number. Where are you for coverage? Yeah, I closed last year with a 2.1 and this year I am opening with a 1.5. Oh, for coverage. For coverage. Oh, that's real. Real not good. as much as I dogged on Latimore and he didn't play much and he's old and hasn't cut on everything else is young, unproven, some again patched with some veterans that I'm not keen on. It's going to be bad, right? I mean, what are what are your positive notes? I want you to play a game to find a positive note for this. Bobby Wagner retired. Yeah, you can't target him on every snap. Yeah, there's that. That's that became such an easy button that I think that was that was affecting things. Sad to say, hate this. Here is go out like that, but it was bad. Basically, just needed to target Bob. You're a successful passing play. I like to cross fine. I think Sandra still is good player. We'll come along in U of three. They're asking him to do a lot. I hope he can handle that. I'd rather see him in the slot, but whatever. Yeah, no, I mean, they bought at the top on a lot of these guys, but I think they can play. I think it's closer to a league average past defense with swapping out the clear and obvious weak link of Bobby and coverage. Yeah, I don't know. I'm nervous. I'm too high on it, though, for sure. I'm looking at that. Like I might have might have might have whiffed. Runs up for me is a 3.8. I don't know. Do you think sunny styles is more of an impact player for the passing game or the ring game? It sounds like from before it sounded like you think he's going to be a bigger deal in the run game. I think him and Leo Chanel helped the run game, the thumpers, whatever in the middle should should help because it was rough last year. What's the nose tackle they got? Settle? Yes, tin settle. He's probably a plus. He's just a big run stuffer as well. So it should improve a little, but it's still a lot of ifs and buts candy enough. So I'm at a 3.2. Again, leaving your own for improvement, but you can't just be like, hey, they're bringing in a rookie. It's going to get better because that's good. The rookie was good at this in college. So it'll be good at this against pros. It doesn't always work out that way. So hopefully for their sake, but we'll see. They were 26th in runstop win rate last year, which felt about right. 45% in past rush win rate. Sixth best in the NFL did not convert to a lot of success. And it didn't matter because they were chasing huge, huge deficits for so many games. But I think past rush is the strength of this defense, but I don't put it above 50% tile. They're at 4.8 for me. Yeah. Past rush. Yeah. What's your number? 5.7. Okay. So you're higher than me on past rush by a good amount. You like the addition or you like the existing guys? So some of my numbers is me doing things by hand. Some of it is bringing in a lot of data and trying to process out how I feel about a team based on output, based on player grades, based on how I feel about players. And this was something that really bugged me yesterday when I started to get ready for the show is I have a higher past rush number for the Washington commanders than the New York Giants. I don't know. I don't know. I'm going to go to sleep feeling about that. But again, they don't lack the interior help, I guess, for I like away. I like a doffy away. I like a minute. You I get to get what do we call that jersey? Johnny. Yeah. We go by Johnny Newton second second year guy. Chiason. Good rotational PSI suppose they spent all the money on this. They kept around pain. Like they should have a good front. They should have a good past rush. But again, as you point out when some of these bad teams, doesn't matter when the other team is just running the ball because you're you're down by three times. Yeah. I may be low on this. I'm a little under 50th percentile at 4.8. So that has that has scoped be reevaluated surely in total on that 40 second percentile for this defense slightly worse than the Giants. And yeah, I mean, if there's only one way that this gets updated as we gain information and that's probably down. And it's probably cut for coverage. Your coverage number to me sounds pretty pretty pretty pretty bearish. That's like the kind of number I landed with for like the dolphins and the jets last year. Like that's really low. We'll see. Yeah, I think 35th percentile defense right now. I'm kind of starting at the floor which is fine or mad. I'm giving a spider chart. I'm giving coaching three out of 10. I'm giving special teams six. We'll see. What was I my coaching was higher. I maybe need to revisit that as much as I didn't say the greatest things about Dan Quinn. He did a lot of good things two years ago in terms of deciding when to go for it. And I think that's going to go look at some of the numbers I use for coaching are yeah, just like you said, like the fourth down stuff was great in 2024. Good enough special teams. Our special teams numbers we hadn't really mentioned but they were independently very close to each other on both these teams so far. Six to six point two for us. And then yeah, my coaching was higher. And I think that you said it was based on some of the aggressiveness index stuff for the guy who makes the decisions there in Dan Quinn. And this one unlike the Giants, you know, we have some disagreements but we were not on the same page for a price here. You're putting them as a flush nut average team and I between my coverage being lower and my especially my quarterback number being lower, I have them as a minus 1.89. You have a miss a plus 0.13. So about two points of difference there for disagreement on this. And again, it's all Q. It's so much so much of the waiting is based on how Jay Daniels plays with the new coordinator. And I think we've covered the range. Yeah. And I'll be I'll be completely honest. I want to start I don't want to start with them low and be late to the party upgrading if Jay and Daniels is you know, the guy we saw in 2024. Yeah. And I think there are rather start around I'd rather start around a neutral and then break either direction depending on how we see the blow. The blow the blow Daniels marriage working out, you know, I think going into a season two you have to think about how you're approaching a team. And if you are off market for a bunch of little things on a team and you think you know, the market is just generally higher on almost everything for a team. And you can bet against that team if you think your numbers and your data and your research are strong. If you are basing it completely on the quarterback, you better be damn sure. And sure. You know, in my that's where in my mind going into this season, I'm lower than market probably. I have to double check with the market. You want to know what the market number is? It is smack. I just run minus one minus one. Yeah minus one point. Oh, I have a jot down at a different spreadsheet that's not open. But yeah, I'm lower than market, but I'm not excited to just be like, hey, I should blindly be betting against this team because there is a position that was really good two years ago that I'm a little colder on. And if that's fixed, maybe even at 75 or 80% of what we saw in 2024, this team is average to above average. And I'm dead wrong. So I'm fine just kind of biting my time in this team because I need to see what the offense looks like. I don't think I have a good enough guess on how bad the blit system was going to be to finally fade this team. Is there a world where what you see from Daniels and spring training? I mean, then in the preseason and in training camp changes your opinion before we even get to week one. Do you that that's a question I kind of pose the other day to myself. It's like how much do you see from because there's a bunch of new OCs, man and obviously a bunch of new head coaches, but how much do you get to feel about what the new system's going to look like from preseason? You know, how much are they putting out there? I think it's more probably on practice reports you're getting from beat reporters and what they're working on in camp than what you're seeing preseason, I suppose. But I mean, maybe it's like a joints. Yeah. If there's like a commander's jets, you know, let's pick a better team. Commander's Browns, joint practice going on and Jayden Daniels is just lighting up the Browns. And it's like, wow, this guy looks like the guy we remember from two years ago. Like, are you going to touch that number? But you want to see it in real game. That's the thing. It is June 13th is recording this. Like if you are now not adjusting your numbers throughout the preseason. You're probably doing yourself a disservice. This is where I'm at right now. If something drastic happens, I'll probably tweet about it. We'll be doing some newsletters. Definitely gonna be watching. Obviously, there's gonna be injuries in the preseason. We're gonna have to adjust because of that. Players are going to tear their ACL between now and week one and they'll have to be adjustments. But there can be adjustments up. They're just rare. I think there's more injuries than surprises to the good. So definitely keep an eye on the joint practices, practice for pork, beat, red or stuff, and anything else like that. If you have question marks, or really important piece like Jane Daniels and you have coming years to game. You want to schedule? Yes. It is pretty tough. Not a lot of slam dunk wins here at a ton of cornflops. Thankfully, the coinflips are kind of middle and late portion of the season. So you're gonna have some data to make a decision on where you stand on Jane Daniels and fair rating before you really have to take a stand. Is that a fair summary? Yeah. The games that are gonna kind of decide their win total are like coming out of the buy, hosting the Eagles at the Giants on Thursday night football. Week 10, versus the Bengals on Monday night at the ball week. A lot of prime time games. At the Titans, week 13, at Minnesota, week 16, right? Like these are all games where they're dogs by less than a field goal. And if they have their shit together by mid season offensively and Jane Daniels is kind of informed, then this is a team that's probably nine, at least nine wins and kind of sniffing a wild card. And if it's not working, it blouse not the guy. And this is just a lost year before they move on from their lame.coach, then we could be looking at four or five wins and I wouldn't be shocked. Big, big bands on the commies. Nasty, nasty, nasty, start to the season with the back-to-back Rodeys at Philadelphia, at Dallas. You may be effectively eliminated from winning the NFC East before your season even starts. Doesn't get any easier with a Sunday early start hosting the defending champion, Siox. Could be 0 and 3 to start. And I don't think anyone would be surprised. And then you gotta get on a plane with your 0 and 3S team and fly to. I forget where that game is. Munich? It's in the London, that's a London game. That's a London game? Yeah. Commies, Colts, Tottenham. That's the first game you're favorite in the season. Neutral field. Neutral field, you're favorite over the Colts. Is that surprised you? The Colts ones, what way do we get to that one? That's a funny one. Okay. I don't think personally if I looked at that right now, my number would not have that, not have them favorite. Yeah, okay. My Colts number would be. Round Neutral. Yeah. You actually above Neutral, so yeah, I'd have the Colts favorite there. Okay. Really the only. Yeah, that's kind of a bad number. The only quote-unquote winnable game is that week five game hosting the Giants, you have just flown back from London. So you're at a travel disadvantage at home, which sucks. Then you gotta go on the road at San Francisco. So you're playing a London game, an East Coast game, a West Coast game, back to back to back weeks. That's gonna be tough on the old bodies. Especially 'cause the West Coast game is a night game. Oh man. They go out from playing at 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. Over the course of three weeks is gonna be nasty. They get their buy after that. This looks to me like the commies are gonna be one and five or two and four to start the season. At which point it's either gone very sideways for Dan Quinn and he's lost the locker room. And we're wondering if he's one of the first coaches fired or that's when you buy low on the commies coming out of the buy in a couple of games where they are gonna be probably pretty big dogs. Like they might be dogs at home outside of three against Philly Week 8 if they're one and five, right? - I was gonna say that those numbers can be three and a half seven for Philly and LA. - Absolutely, 'cause, absolutely, 'cause yeah. So it might be like November 1st is the buy low point on Washington and the David Blow. And what's the defensive coordinator's name? Goddamn, I can't remember these guys. - Daron Tae Jones, the David Blow, Daron Tae Jones coordinator duo finally kind of gets their feet under them by November just in time to be betting them as dogs through the middle of the season. I like that. As far as a arc narrative, what do you think? - Again, I go back to looking at the strengths of a lot of these teams and I just struggle man with the secondary pieces. It's gonna be so hard to beat some of these teams. Your Giants game, at least for the second one, neighbors is back. Just look at the wide receiver stretch you're going through with Philly, LA Giants, and see, you get a nice little respite with their own out, but boy. - Yeah. - The wide receiver ones you're facing this year, it sucks, Jackson Smith and Jigba right off the bat, you got Dallas too with Lamb. He got Houston. - Lamb and pickin' Atlanta. - You got Minnesota. - Jesus. - Yeah, this isn't a great schedule to have a bad covered scenario. - So I don't know if it's, you know, we've talked about a hundred times now on how important, how Daniels plays this year with the new scheme new coordinator is, but if Jones doesn't get this end-quin, gets the secondary playing a little better, God, maybe another over team, another fun over team. What if they figure it out on offense, but the secondary just stinks anyway, and every game is, you know, 31, 28. - Be fun to watch. I hope that-- - Maybe it's a bad team that I enjoy watching. - I kind of feel like you're going to revisit this as we go through the off season, and this is going to be one of the bigger your under market on, and this is going to stand out as a potential all-under type of team. - You know what, you would win money on. If this team turns into a team that scores 24 to 28 points in a losing stretch, 5th, 13, 14 times, maybe not that many, to 11, 12 times, and they score 20 plus, 30 plus in lose. You know what, Betwins, Jaden Daniels come back player of the year. - That could be, yeah. - He has like 45 combined touchdowns. - He's pretty off the radar in that one too. - Is he even on a top 10 choice? I don't think he is. - I think he's near the top, but not the favorite. I double check that. - It was a good thing. If you wanted to go pro commandos right now, it'd be-- - Oh, you know what, you're dead right. He has a second choice. Top choice is my home. The number two is Jaden Daniels. Kyle Murray, Michael Parsons, Malik neighbors, George Kittle. Daniel Jones. - The home's just like, I don't know how to explain this. My home's just a boring choice. We're giving one of the best players ever, a comeback player. - Kind of. - I don't know. - Dina did, did, did, did, Bengals quarterback, bucks, the, Barbarale. Did Barale get it? Or did he get it? Somebody's, somebody's, - I don't remember because I don't bet that market anymore. - Yeah, I know. - It's a very silly, silly market. Win total seven and a half, Juicel, do the over, NFC, these prices, not that much different than the Giants, plus 450-ish, 30 to 1 to win the NFC, 60 to 1. To win the Super Bowl, sunny styles is one of your top options to win D-Roy as well. Just, I guess, because he's gonna play immediately in quite a bit, but I'm not sure he's the right position to win that. Be interesting. And I think another market that I don't have a price on, but you had the Quinn stuff. I'm gonna have to read the tea leaves and see what people are saying about that as well, if he's a, - No. - Realist, he liked it. - He's like it for first good. - Yeah, just 'cause it's not a great schedule. - You're giving him two new coordinators. You probably not pulling the trigger on him in the season, right? - Yeah, especially since, you know, if one of the coordinators was like, Callahan, you know, and they brought in a guy who'd had been a head coach. And now he's gonna be your offensive coordinator. And you've got a guy who can just, hey, step up and be the coach, at least in the interim, maybe as a full-time spot, but these guys are very inexperienced coordinators. It's not like, hey, we hired Blau to be the coach in waiting. I don't know, maybe it's-- - I elevated him from within the deal. - All right, to be then waiting in the wings, he says, So final final comment on the commanders and then let's wrap it out at an hour This is a team that is probably Untouchable through the first six weeks of the season coming out of there by if there's any sign of life better miss a dog I Don't think I have any other real serious opinion about them until we know what tells going on with blah To noon Wednesday or Thursday we have to decide because there may be some conflicts with our next two previews, but This week you will get Cowboys and Eagles