Come l'EUROPA è già precipitata una volta nella GUERRA MONDIALE - Alessandro Barbero (Cesena, 2025)

He said it. I strongly hope that at the end of the future historians will find out that this will be revealed at a very different time than the years that preceded the scope of the First World War. And I think it is a shared hope. After that... I will not underline any analogy. If you think there will be any, it will be your fault, which you will see. So, the First World War, we all know that the First World War took place not as a cause, but as an opportunity to assassinate Sarajevo, the French Archduke Ferdinand, and the king of the throne of the Austrian Empire, on June 28, 1914. By the hand of Serbian terrorists or financed by Serbia. The Second World War took place because at that point the Austro-Hungarian Empire decided to end it with a country that for a long time created problems for them. Serbia had a great and powerful ally, Russia. Russia, on the other hand, was the ally of France, and both enemies of Germany. In short, a country after the other, and precipitated in that war. Now, that war was such a shock for the Europeans. And, in reality, the First World War was in a certain sense the suicide of Europe. Of Europe that until that moment dominated the world, and it is not that we should be sorry that it is no longer so, but at the end of the European domination on the world, for Europe, was a huge trauma. A terrifying war, to which the dictators were followed, and another terrifying war, the Second. Then the myth was created, for which the First World War took place unexpectedly, without anyone expecting it, breaking into a peaceful world where no one could have imagined that something so tremendous could happen. It is a myth that was spread immediately after the war. From the contemporary point of view, a Austrian writer, Stefan Zweig, has strongly contributed to creating this myth with a book entitled "The World of Yesterday". It is a book published in the 1930s. And Stefan Zweig, you understand, is writing in the 1930s, with Hitler to power, Mussolini to power, and the Second World War that was approaching. And Stefan Zweig idealized the First World of 1914. In his memory, that world was a secure world. The first chapter of the book was entitled "The World of Security". And it starts like this. When I try to find an effective formula to describe the time when I grew up, before the Great War, I think the most effective thing was the golden age of security. Everything seemed destined to last. Now, I'm sorry to say it, because he was there and we didn't. He should have known more about him, but instead it's not true, we know more about him. He lived on the world in which he lived and in the 1930s he came to idealize it. Instead, in reality, what impresses me is to see how, since the last years of the 1800s, in what was then called the "beautiful epoch", since the last years of the 1800s, the signs of the catastrophe were evident. It impresses me to see how he talked openly about the war that was coming. And how the class leaders, in reality, that war, not only did they expect it, but they ended up wanting it. Now, probably, among the people, many didn't realize it. They didn't see it or didn't want to see it. Many absorbed from their own life, which is the only one that counts, obviously, could really believe they lived in a safe world, but the signs, on the other hand, were evident. Then, of course, we don't know more about them, because we read the verbals of the secret meetings, the private letters of the ministers and generals, all that the public at that time was avoiding, and instead we have those testimonies. And then, now I will try to show you, of course, that things are actually as they were announced, that is, that in the previous years, in 1914, the war was coming. But let's start by giving some elements to understand how that world was made, how that Europe was made. Europe, the European policy, was dominated by the strongest countries, of course, that there was the habit of calling them "the great powers". The great powers were, in order of power, precisely, Great Britain, Germany, Russia, France, Austria-Hungary, and Italy, which, for courtesy, was considered one of the six great powers, even if, in reality, it was much weaker, from every point of view, than all the others. Now, the first characteristic of that world, the first Europe in 1914, which we have to emphasize, is that all the powers kept enormous armed forces, armies and warships, huge and expensive, and therefore an incredible part of the balance of each state went into military spending. In France, in 1913, 30% of the balance of the state went into armed forces. In Great Britain, which was the country that spent more on armed forces, not because it was the most militaristic, but it had a world empire to preserve, and it had the sea domain to preserve. In Great Britain, in the 20 years preceding the scope of the Great War, in the middle of every year, 40% of the balance of the state went into military spending. To understand, today, the greatest military power in the world, the United States, spends 10% of its balance on military spending. Oh, of course, I have to make a clarification that addresses a little the impact of these things. At the time, a percentage of the GDP was much lower than what it is today. The inflation in general was much lower, practically there were no taxes on the net, and it is not said that the military spending was then much higher than it is today, but the percentage of the state spending was much higher, much more in arms, much less in instructions, health and so on. A second aspect of that world, which is not said to be so different from today's world, but, let's say, there was a huge war industry. In 1913, the largest German arms factory, the Krupp, had 81,000 workers. Their establishment of Essen was the largest factory in Germany, and consumed as much electricity as the entire city of Berlin, the capital of the empire. But it is not only Germany. In Great Britain, 250,000 workers worked for the war navy. Finally, there is a third aspect, the least known, I think, in general, of that world that I want to underline, and I will stop a little more on this. It was fashionable in the 40, 50 years that preceded the scope of the Great War, a literary genre that today is forgotten by the specialists of literature, which is called "the literature literature of the invasion". Romantic, fiction, as it is said today, which tells, in the various countries, how a war will come soon and our country will be invaded and defeated by our evil enemies, because we have evil enemies and we spend too little to defend ourselves. The literature of the invasion, I repeat, today is forgotten, so it is difficult to believe when you read the figures, the statistics, the hundreds of romances of this kind that come out in all countries, the capostipite of this literary genre, the alarmist, so to speak, is a novel that came out in England in 1871. Pay attention to the date. When we ask our students, it happens to all the professors who teach history, there is always a problem, why the dates? What are the dates? The dates are used to make connections and then to understand things. 1871, and as soon as the Franco-Prussian War ended, great victories of the Germans who unified Germany and created the German Empire, the Second Reich. In that same 1871, a novel came out in England, which is called "The Battle of Dorking", which imagines a war between England and Germany, in which the Germans, thanks to a secret weapon, destroy the English fleet and in a few days they conquer England. The novel has a huge success, 200,000 copies, translations and imitations in all languages. The author of the novel "The Battle of Dorking" is, of course, a colonel of the army, then a conservative deputy, and the purpose of the work is very clear. It is said that due to the weakness of the government, that it is a liberal government, they are not the conservators of power at the moment, they are the liberals a little more on the left, so to speak. So the novel denounces that the military spending is too low, it has given the vote to the ignorant masses, that they do not understand that military spending is indispensable, shockingly the people believe that it is useless to buy weapons. The novel has a political impact. The First Liberal Minister, Gladstone, denounces the source of the alarmism founded by collective hysteria caused in England by the departure of this novel and by the scum. The Germans invade us. The novel, however, has enthusiastic reviews. It describes exactly what we all feel. The extraordinary thing is that the novel is not only translated, but also imitated in all countries. I will just give you an example that concerns, since we are here, we do not deny anything, Italy. In Italy, in 1872, two imitations of the Battle of Dorking come out, a title entitled "The story of a pagid guardian", "Liberation of the Battle of Dorking", "The theme, the French invade Italy", "Darkened by pacifism and that has not spent enough to arm themselves". The second novel is entitled "The Battle of Pinerola". This time, the French invade Italy, but they come back, because after all we are Italians, and therefore a million Italians come together and push the French invaders, because in all countries the literature of the invasion is divided into two branches. Those with the catastrophic ending invade us and we are always finished, and those where instead the ending is heroic invade us, but then at the end we win. In any case, the theme is always and still, we must be afraid, we have enemies, we must arm ourselves, and then there is also another subject, but not too much, that is, the invocation of authoritarian governments that end up beating up parliament, parties, that crush the internal sedition. It is common to despise for the popular classes and left-wing parties who want to spend for social rights, and they do not understand that instead they need to spend on weapons. Another thing that these romances have in common, written in the beautiful epoch, in an era in which the horrors that they describe were not yet materialized, but all these romances describe invaders as barbarians, ferocious, who do everything in our country conquering, traitors of civilians, violence, women, children. After that, at the beginning, yes, the first romance speaks of a German invasion of England, but in reality the enemy is not yet fixed. Let's limit ourselves to England. In 1882, the works begin for a project that will then be abandoned, will then be carried out a long time later, the channel under the handle. In the same 1882, a decade of romances and stories come out in England, where the theme is always the same. The French invade us using the channel under the handle. And then the other theme on which these romances are beaten up, is that we need allies. From now on, we are too weak. The others will equalize against us, we must have allies. 1894, William Lecceux, the Great War in England in 1897. In three years, imagine the romance, we will be invaders by those who this time, by the French and by the Russians. In fact, in 1894, there was a revolt in European politics, an approach between France and Russia, two old enemies, which in '94, precisely because it is good not to be alone, had a narrow path of alliance. The reaction in England is "but then it is against us". But they are not only European countries. In 1890, in the United States comes a novel, The Stricken Nation, the nation beaten up, broken, which tells how the United States are invaded by the English. In France, I do not want to make it long, but this is still worth it. In France, there is a writer specialized in this type of romance, Émile Drian. Naturally, he is an officer of the army. Naturally, he is a politician, then he will become deputy of the right wing. Émile Drian is an incredibly prolific writer, who publishes novels dedicated to thousands of pages. For years and years, his novels come out. The war of tomorrow, the Germans invade France. The fatal war, the English invade France. The black invasion, the African Muslims invade France. And then the gas is exterminated at the gates of Paris. And the Islamic religion disappears after this massacre. The Chinese and Japanese yellow invasion invades France. In fact, the first time the war against the Germans was held, Émile Drian will fall into the Battle of Verdun in 1916. Oh, one last, then we talk about the other, but one last common treat to these novels, in which they are not prophetic at all, in reality, and which they imagine and repeat to the public that the defeat in the next war will be the end of our nation, that we will leave humiliated, impoverished, reduced in slavery for centuries, if not forever. Here, let's keep in mind that the public opinion was used to think like this. If we lose the next war, it will be the end for our people. It is important to have it present, to understand how the people, not only the army, but the people will fight the two World Wars. So, if these are the complex characteristics of this period, there is no surprise if these states that are already armed until the teeth, in the 15 years before the Great War, all of them, in one way or another, start to think that they are not armed enough and that they must be armed more. And what we call in our historiographic slang the running of the weapons. So much to understand, in 1913, countries like Russia or Germany will spend more than double their respect for the 19th century. Even if you don't pay for all this, it's not that they had money to throw away. Rather, this political point of view is particularly interesting. In all countries there are parliaments to convince, every year the new financial law is discussed with the increase of military spending, more armed parties, more cannons, and every year they are elected to the parliament, to convince the parliament in all countries, finally in Russia, there is the parliament now. In all countries there are ministers of the finances that strip their hair, claiming that there are no money, there are governments that fall into the battle for the increase of military spending, they increase taxes inevitably. In all countries there comes the time to be able to continue spending money in armaments, we need to introduce the patrimonial, or even anathema at the time, the progressive tax on the net, which in all countries begins to be discussed precisely in the years preceding the Great War and precisely to pay military spending. Politically it is a battle, but the public opinion and the press normally support this spending. The public opinion wants to hear it, we are strengthening ourselves. The arms race in the first phase is above all a naval race between England and Germany. In 1890 a book came out, but sometimes I will talk about books that have a certain influence on the course of history. In 1890 a book came out of an American navy officer, Captain Mahan, who heard the influence of naval power on history. Captain Mahan supports and shows that he is dominated by those who dominate the seas, and that those who want to have power in the world must have the control over the seas. I will read this book to all of you. Among others, an exceptional reader, a character that will happen to me more often, one of the protagonists of this era, Kaiser Guglielmo II, the emperor of Germany, a controversial character, used to declarations, inculcating, to talk too much and too much, to talk about his ministers and probably compensated for a tremendous inferiority complex. However, Kaiser Guglielmo reads the book of Mahan and convinces Germany, which is the last arrival among the great powers, which does not have a colonial empire, and which must have it. It must have a place to the sun, as it was said to us in Italy then. And how do you do it? You must have a great fleet of wars. If we have a great fleet of wars, we will be respected and we will obtain what awaits us. In 1898, Germany passed the first major naval law. In the next seven years, we will build 11 battleships. The entire country is involved. The Navy Ministry organizes a powerful propaganda. We meet the industrialists, the journalists, the university professors, we go to school, and the public opinion is convinced. In Germany, an association was born, the Navy League, to support the project of a great navy of the German war. In 1914, the Navy League will have 1 million subscribers. Do you understand what it means? The Germans are subscribed to an association whose only purpose is to push on politics because Germany has a great fleet of wars. How do you think they react in England? In England, the reaction is... but they have this with us. They threaten us. The existence of a powerful German fleet is a horrible threat. The Prime Minister of the Navy, the English, declares that the Germans are building a fleet with the precise goal of fighting against us, otherwise why would they do it? Now, the security of England, but not only the security, the survival of England, which is important to most of its food, the survival of England depends on the sea control. As soon as the Germans start building a great fleet, in England, the debate begins. In Parliament, on the press, and the press defends people. If we lose the control of the seas, there will be hunger. In case of war, there will be caress, and after caress, there will be revolution. Because there are always reds, even in one way or another. The newspapers invite the government to accumulate food reserves. And the literature of the invasion, don't forget, it's always of great fashion in all these years, the literature of the invasion is immediately relevant. In England, there begins to come out novels in which the plot is "dilettante investigators", you know from the reading of the English yellows, which they adore, "dilettante investigators", discover a secret plan of German invasion. Or a network of German spies in England. The political response is, on the one hand, "let's build stronger, even us!" "We will build more of them!" And the other political response is, "let's look for allies." In 1904, England and France hold an agreement. It is called the "Lontant Cordiale", the "Cordial Intesa". Described, there is only one agreement for colonial exploitation. The English take Egypt, and the French take Morocco. In fact, it is the beginning of a stable alliance between the two countries. And in England, the politicians say, "well, great, now we have an alliance, we are safer." One of the English ministers of the time, Lloyd George, in his memories, remembers to have gone to find an old liberal politician, an former prime minister, Lord Rosbury. Lord Rosbury welcomes him and says, "well, I imagine that she too is as happy as all the others for this agreement with France." And Lloyd George says, "well, yes, it was time for us and the French to stop fighting each other." He doesn't understand anything. In the end, he wants to say, "War with Germany." And in fact, in Germany, we are very disappointed. Why do they build the most angry one? Obviously, they consider us enemies. Even in Germany, they throw out the romances on the future war. And here, the enemy is always England. Once they invade us, once we invade them. Only one of these romances is mentioned, not for the content, but for the title. And, precisely, in 1904, the year of the alliance between England and France, and comes out a novel by a certain Neiman, which is entitled Der Weltkrieg, Deutsche Troime, the World War, the German dreams. Well, the German dreams are the English, they invade us, but we catch them, we win them. But do you understand? The World War has already been born, we are in 1904, 10 years left until the Great War, and, at least in Germany, the World War is already being said. The naval race continues, no one can stop it. The soldiers, not that they are not a problem, but they find themselves. Every now and then, one of the two parts, the English and the Germans, tries to approach the other to say, "But if I slow down a little, every doubt is around." But when the German ambassador speaks to the English minister Lloyd George, who is precisely the Minister of Finance, the Chancellor of the Scullers, Lloyd George responds, "Every Englishman would spend his last penny to preserve the naval supremacy of England." Another time, the English minister, who tries to speak to Kaiser, the fact that maybe he could make an agreement of limitation, Kaiser responds, "The honour of Germany also comes from discussions. Rather than letting me impose the end of the naval construction program, I would do the war." In the meantime, the political contacts continue to be made allies. Germany already has an ally, Austria-Hungary, in theory also Italy. You know, it was a triple alliance, but no one hoped that it would be in Italy. England is allied with France and in 1907 it also made an agreement with Russia, which was already a friend of France. It also became a triple alliance. The triple alliance in Germany is the panic, the hysteria. Now our enemies are all allies between them. A nice day, we are in 1908, an English daily, the Daily Mail, a daily conservative who pushes for the arms race, publishes an interview with Kaiser Guglielmo. Kaiser Guglielmo is one of those people who talk a lot, convinced to do well and says, "But the English are crazy. But as never before, they don't understand that I am your friend. They understand everything I say, I want peace and instead the English treat me like an enemy. I am really offended." The reaction in England, of course, but they have this with us. The Minister of English Studies analyzes Kaiser's interview and concludes that it is a trick to induce us in a false sense of security. The public opinion claims more than a war ship. It denies the fear of the invasion and comes out articles, the German danger. A deputy of the British parliament at Westminster declares to know for sure that the Germans have hidden guns in the heart of London. Why 50,000? Because it gives the statistics that in Great Britain there are 50,000 German immigrants who, for the most part, are the cameramen. But in reality they are travesty military. In the same 1908 something happens in England that you all have heard but without at least imagining the context in which this thing happens. Baden-Powell founded the Boy Scout. You have to go and see the program with which the Boy Scout are founded in 1908. England is full of industrial cities with huge miserable neighborhoods where the boys grow on the streets. Too many English boys say Baden-Powell are magra balls, raquitic, always with a cigarette in their mouth but we will transform them into healthy patriots. And there is also the women's section which says that they learn to make themselves useful in case of an invasion. This is in England and on the other hand in Germany precisely in Elysteria we are surrounded and Elysteria is not just a popular print but comes to the verticals. In 1909 the head of state of the German army Count Schliefen famous for the Schliefen plan the invasion plan of France which will be done in 1914. Count Schliefen in a memorandum writes we are surrounded our enemies want to destroy us why don't they do it immediately? They expect that the litigies between political parties demoralize the German society. Here I quote literally then the doors will be opened the bridges will fall and the armies of millions of men will fall against us devastating and destroying and this is what the commander of the German army thinks. In this context the 10 years that precede the scope of the World War have been signed to continue a crisis a crisis is when for any reason a country is offended or exposed for something that has done another power and in all these cases immediately they start talking about war they talk about printing I give you a quick idea of the various crises that are happening once in 1904 once the Russian fleet there is the Russian-Japanese war the Russian fleet of the Baltic comes out of its doors to make the circumnavigation of the world and go to face the Japanese will then be destroyed in the battle of Tsushima many months later but as soon as it came out of its doors the Russian fleet in the North Sea meets British fishermen and the concern on board that they decide that those are Japanese torpedoes dressed that go up to the Sea of the North to attack them so the Russian fleet opens the fire against the fishermen Necola Pico 1 is the incident of the Doggar Bank for a few weeks we are asked if the war will take place between England and Russia once again in France which in the four has done the cordial understanding with England therefore they are free in Morocco would still be an independent state with its Sultan but the Europeans of the time laugh at us of these independent states of Africa and are well decided to show who commands therefore in 1905 France begins to insist with the Sultan that he must lean more on France and in particular must take French officials as instructors for his army the reaction in Germany is of great concern the French are too broad how do we respond Kaiser Guglielmo at that moment is on the cross in the Mediterranean from Berlin the government tells him it would be a good thing to make a small boat in Morocco but not a military one a visit like this to remind the French that there is the German Empire the Kaiser does not seem true the French are very close and the first Moroccan crisis for a while it is asked if the war between France and Germany then they make an international conference they are able to avoid it another time in Austria which for 30 years occupies Bosnia Herzegovina with its capital Sarajevo but not in Holland but in Italy and also in Italy the Bosnia Herzegovina with its capital Sarajevo but not in Nessa the only one occupied by an international conference the Bosnia Herzegovina belongs in theory to the Ottoman Empire but the government of Austria with the consensus of all but in 1908 Austria decides to annihilate its empire the Bosnia Herzegovina you know there is a difference between a territory and annihilating it it is a politically enormous step Russia is alarmed the whole world speaks of the risk of war and the Bosnia crisis falls in 1908 then in 1911 again in Morocco France that continues to expand in 1911 occupies the capital of Morocco, FES with the pretext of protecting the Europeans because in fact in the country there is a lot of insecurity the Germans say and we who are also we have to protect our nationality from Berlin they send a war ship in the Moroccan port of Agadir then we discover we historians have discovered later reading that the minister of the German estates do not know well what that ship must do but meanwhile we send it to the table and the second Moroccan crisis the French offend a lot that you do not have Germans to arrive in Morocco that now consider robbing them are on the order of the war another time we put italy always in 1911 that declare war to the Ottoman Empire and invade Libya now we this I do not know school at the war of Libya Italy wants a colony invade Libya but as soon as you mention the fact that the war against the Turks for this the world sees it a little differently it is an aggression of a great power to the Ottoman Empire that risks destabilizing the whole Balkan world Mediterranean and in fact destabilizes as Turkey is very weak from any point of view until the year after 1912 all the small Balkan states Serbia, Greece Bulgaria attack the Ottoman Empire and the first Balkan war they straddle occupy almost all the territories Turkey still in Europe the year after 1913 litigate between them Serbia and Greece are against Bulgaria and the second Balkan war the Balkans are a very delicate place Austria is there Russia is just behind all of them are very interested in what will happen to the Ottoman Empire these situations want to say that continuously and in 1912-13 for many months in a row the world remains confused in all these cases that I have mentioned for 10 years 6 or 7 consecutive crises every time all the governments do something that I have to explain in detail so you have to be patient I have to go into a technical detail on how the armies of that time work all the time between the years in England there is the obligatory registration military service lasts 2 or 3 years depending on the countries this means that every army is composed of 2 or 3 classes but every year the class that has finished is sent home and a new class of young men to be built but those that go home for many years remain in the reserve they can be called back this is called mobilisation when things the international gap get worse a thing that can make a state and say "we call 1 class 2 classes 3 partial mobilisations if never a state decided and announced that it calls back all the reservists it would be a decision politically so huge that there would be a safe war in fact in all these crises that I told you, no state arrives at the general mobilisation we will arrive in the summer of 1914 first, they are always stopped a step before but there is also another thing that they can do every year they go home the class that has finished they go home from autumn after the harvest the harvest is still a fundamental thing for all the countries after the harvest, the new young men come and they send home the old men but a state can decide that this year exceptional, those who have to go home we still treat them for a few months they have the right to do it and they do this one of the first things that they do in these crisis situations is to say "we, this autumn we are not going to give them away we are going to treat them under the weapons" now, all these things to call the reservists to treat under the weapons those who have to go home also all these things are not innocuous things and without costs they cost a lot from the economic point of view and they cost a lot from the political point of view because the country is alarmed and protests the same army the same military service are very delicate things and yet they do it regularly in these moments of crisis why? because it sends a signal to the opponents it shows that we are not afraid of you and that we are not afraid to fight if it will be necessary and of course in these cases the most in the public is mobility that we have done in our government because we are threatened by France because we are threatened by Russia of course now, however, as I told you it seems that everything is going well in fact, every time the crises come back but when the crises come back the perverse effect and every step back is felt as a humiliation it is constantly talked about the national honour the national prestige to defend the risk of becoming a power of second category and the other common characteristic of all these crises is that every time during the crisis the military take on the politicians saying "but let's make them attack us at this point" because who attacks first is at risk in 1905 at the time of the first Moroccan crisis the British Admiral Jackie Fisher says to the Minister of Foreign Affairs "It seems like a golden opportunity to fight Germany as allies of France and I hope that she will be able to take advantage of us we could master the German fleet in 15 days in the same context before the Moroccan crisis the commander of the German army who is still Schlippen proposes "let's attack us" the Kaiser is contrary and explains it at the point of the first January 1906 at the Prime Minister von Bülow because the Kaiser is contrary to attack I quote textualy "before intimidating the Socialists to decapitate them and make them inoffensive if necessary with a bath of blood and then war but not before and not together in 1908 at the time of the crisis in Bosnia the commander of the Austrian army Conrad advises "let's attack Serbia" and if Italy intervenes "let's attack Italy too" then the crisis in Bosnia is resolved without war a memorandum of Conrad says in substance "we lost the opportunity" "we lost the opportunity to finish it with Serbia" "it was better to do it immediately" "because before or after we had to do it" 1911 when Italy attacks Libya always Conrad, commander of the Austrian army goes to the Emperor Francesco Giuseppe and invokes the attack to Italy now that Italy is engaged in Libya Francesco Giuseppe the Austrian army has never started a war Conrad unfortunately your master the difference between the military and the politicians is there, there is no doubt the politicians are uncertain they were not determined to do the war at all costs but they were prisoners of a situation in which the public opinion raised by the press was pretending not only to be safe but also to say that in our country it appears strong and the politicians were really convinced that by strengthening they would have made the war less likely that is, the rearmament would have had a deterrence effect the old maxima "sivis pacem parabellum" "if you want peace prepare the war" "you have never felt as often as before in 1914" and then the armies were used by the politicians to negotiate from a strong position I said it, to take a step back when there is a crisis it costs politically and so if the politicians want to be strong and are willing to do everything let every year increase military spending and in reality the hope contorts that in this way we strong will be afraid of the others so the others will not attack us and in any case when there will be a crisis we will count more after the crisis in Bosnia the first Russian minister declares "we want peace" but it is necessary that the countries who are not ready for us feel our strength the Russian in the crisis in Bosnia did not support Serbia did not intervene against Austria it was a national humiliation but in two or three years the Russians are strengthening if it happens again we can talk with another tone during the crisis according to the Moroccan crisis the first French minister called the commander of the army Joffre and he said Napoleon said that we should not fight if it is not 70% of the probability of winning we have them and Joffre again so let's negotiate but in all these cases Joffre is on fire we are ruled by the Vigliacchi in Germany when the Moroccan crisis ends and again there was no war Germany took a step back and removed the war ship from Morocco and the press speaks of shame I quote we have become a race of women ruled by the interests of some Hebrew merchants the commander of the German army von Moltke if we leave again with the tail between the legs if we are not able to make energy requests and import them with the sword then there is no hope for the German Empire in that case I admit but first I would ask that they remove the army and put us under the protection of Japan so we could make money without any other worries and completely reunite so every time there is a crisis and the war is avoided and we would say the world will take a sigh of relief but in reality all the irritations with the impression of having made a bad figure and thinking but the next time it does not end the minister of English history Grey the consequences of such a crisis do not end when the crisis ends it seems that they end but they go underground and reappear later in this context in 1910 another book came out that would like to be able to say a very influential book instead it is a very famous book that has not had any real influence it is a book by an English journalist Norman Angel it is an illusion it is a book in which Norman Angel tries to warn the world that it is on a dangerous China because every country is convinced that the answer to all the problems is the military force so that if there will be war at least we will win and Norman Angel writes that this is the illusion because if there will be war everyone will lose also the winners if there is huge success everyone will read it do you understand that it is difficult to talk about a book that had an influence because it will all happen the opposite there is another book that is more realistic 1911 and the book of the German general von Bernhard which is entitled "The Germany and the next war" with chapters that are entitled "The right to war" "The duty to war" "and to dominate the world" "or to live" and here you see the whole Darwinian conception that dominated the culture of that time the idea that nations are like animal species they survive the strongest there are species that are extinct and those that are adapted because they are stronger and the peoples are the same thing and therefore they must be strong the last 2 years before the Great War are the years in which the military begin to push because the next time instead of explaining so much we attack enough also because there is a problem the increase of military spending will not be able to continue to infinity everyone sees it the numbers are public and in particular in Germany and Austria the military do their calculations and they say "the trend favors gold" now it is also very clear thanks to the alliances that there are no separate powers there are two discrepancies us and gold Germany and Austria on the one hand France, Russia and England on the other and France, Russia and England are spending more and in perspective they will always become stronger therefore the German and Austrian military in particular but you understand in the same situation they would have also done the others they are those in the situation to say gentlemen if you are sure that there will be a war then it is better to do it first because for us the situation can only get worse in November of 1912 an old general General Fonder Golds writes a memorandum for the Kaiser on how to face the world war that is coming November 1912 do you understand December 2, 1912 the commander of the German army Faumoltke successor of Schliefen writes a memorandum for the government all the countries are preparing for the war and all of them wait for it before or after do you understand this is the type of text that the public did not know the public read the novels of the invasion read the print that they said we had to be strong but did not know these texts in which presidents of the council, cellars and commanders of the army say everyone is sure that the war is coming Faumoltke says the war is coming he told me this will be a deterrent in favor of peace and I replied to him that we are preparing for the war December 8, 1912 the Kaiser stays in the Potsdam palace near Berlin the German ambassador to London just warned that the alliance between England and France is very solid if there will be a war England will intervene to prevent France from being destroyed the Kaiser was a rebel the English are Germans like us why are they playing with the Gauls with the Slavs and also here you see their reasons are like this there are the races there is the German race the Slavic race in the Potsdam everyone agrees that the war is inevitable and the commander of the army Faumoltke says in a verbal way you need to print it you start to prepare the public opinion the commander of the navy they are ten years old but the English always build more of them so the commander of the navy would not still want to end the war now the commander of the navy Faumoltke the navy will not be ready even then the enemy will be forcing more of us and before the war it is better but it is necessary that the people be enthusiastic you need to prepare the public opinion at the beginning of 1913 new laws were discussed to expand the armies even more in France even in Belgium France decided to extend the military service for three years until now there were only two the government presents this measure to the parliament saying if France is strong Germany will think twice before attacking us at this point the German government asks the parliament to increase the military expenses not because we want the war but because we want peace and because if the war comes we want to win it and he is the most sincere of all in fact in words instead everyone is convinced that by strengthening the armies peace is guaranteed in 1913 a new French president came to the parliament and declared peace is possible only if the country is always ready for the war the British ambassador to Paris in 1913 talking with king George V the best guarantee of peace between the great powers and that everyone is afraid of each other since we are here 1913 came out the usual Roman Zetto in England the famous writer Saki the Roman Zetto was named when William came the Kaiser and described life in a London occupied by the Germans for all in 1913 the wars continue in the Balkans and all the governments and the major states know to be on the edge of the war especially in Austria they start to speak more seriously Conrad commander of the army January 1913 and we will have 100 years of peace in April of 1913 is the first Austrian minister Berichtold who summons the commander of the army Conrad but if we attack the army we can take Belgrade before they start the war Belgrade is on the border in the summer of 1913 in full crisis in the Balkans we can decide if we keep the conscripts at the end of the summer or send them home Conrad tells the politicians we cannot allow for the third time to keep the conscripts we have already done it in the previous crisis and to talk about mobilization and then do nothing it is not tolerable neither for our prestige nor for the costs nor for the public opinion the minister of finance of the Austrian empire Bilinski is a Polish noble he is a multiethnic empire the minister Bilinski let us know that these continuous mobilizations and ex-mobilizations and to keep the conscripts and send them home they cost too much at the end of the war it would cost less or we do peace forever with Serbia or we destroy it In 1913 even the year in which in Germany a centenary is celebrated the centenary of the Liberation War against Napoleon of 1813 is an occasion for enormous nationalist and militarist celebrations and on that occasion the Kaiser talking with the Austrian commander Conrad tells him there are situations in which a great power has to fight but it has to push the sword the others are not ready they will do nothing in two days you have to be in Belgrade in reality it is not true the others are not ready, they will do nothing this is a mess of the Kaiser because the truth is that everyone knows that if a war breaks out they will not be able to stay a limited war but it will become a world war In 1913 he refers to his government in Paris the Kaiser has come to convince himself that the war with France is inevitable and also necessary before or after In November of 1913 the Kaiser receives the King of Belgium and during the reception he indicates to a general and tells him "that is the man who will command the march on Paris" In fact he is the one who will command the army who will try to execute the Schlieffen plan during the Great War and invade France and yet the year of 1914 arrives and people celebrate and are all serene and happy and ignorant and the famous Miller Dario and Philanthropo-American Andrew Carnegie say hello to the world in the strong belief that the international peace is to prevail and that the great powers will agree to resolve their disputes with the arbitration and the international law because the pen is stronger than the sword Now you understand of course I have provided a ledger a red thread a red thread that connects all the innumerable factors that make us see today that the war could not come they knew it, they wanted it but the people who lived there did not see this red thread of course, the world is complicated there are thousands of things people also saw pacifist associations for the world peace and the socialists who proposed the friendship between the proletarians of all countries people saw all these things understand, we are historians we can fish things and tell you that following this thread you understand one thing but for those who were immersed it was much more difficult and yet the thread is so evident, amazing in January 1914 there is another small crisis because Germany is always more friendly of the Ottoman Empire and it was obtained that a German general went to command the Turkish army Russia is very hostile to the Ottoman Empire of the aspirations in the Black Sea on Constantinople so that a German general went to command the Turkish army for us Russians it is a danger and an offence to the French ambassador we will not be left behind and this time it will not be like the war with Japan the humour of the country will shock us for the moment nothing is happening but the Kaiser on more occasions there are many people who have had the dialogue with the Kaiser in those first months of 1914 and who then remembered yes, Kaiser told me that Russia is preparing the war against us and that maybe it would be better to start with us instead of waiting in March 1914 even the Austrian commander Conrad says to a colleague but we must wait for France or Russia to be ready to invade us or it is better to start the war first in April 1914 have you seen that one of the factors that count a lot are the alliances because the countries that tighten the alliance feel and believe more safe and automatically the others remain wary and feel more insecure in April 1914 it is a naval agreement between England and Russia an alliance, now I want to tighten it even more precisely because Russia is forcing itself a lot and England wants to be sure to hold it as an alliance that does not come in mind to the Russians to ally with the Germans so the naval agreement between England and Russia to the news of this agreement Moltke, commander of the German army declares from this moment every day late can only decrease our probabilities of success the most lucid politicians are very concerned one is a politician still very young but who already has a very authoritative position who will then become much more famous and in 1914 minister of the English Navy First Lord of the Admiral His name is Winston Churchill and Churchill at the beginning of 1914 says "the world is being armed as never before in the same days minister of the English estates, Gray the excessive spending in armaments pushes the extreme will lead to a catastrophe and it seems to me that there is very little that we can do to avoid it" the president of the United States Wilson is a famous pacifist humanitarian who tries to use his role as president of the United States to maintain peace in the world and he sends in Europe his most trusted advisor Colonel House in that spring of 1914 to go and see what these crazy people are doing on the 29th of May of 1914 Colonel House writes, or telegraph to Wilson, "from Berlin the situation is extraordinary it is the militarism of the whole crazy if we can't make them think here one day or the other there will be a terrible catastrophe" On the 1st of June 1914 von Moltke commander of the German army leaves to flee "now we are ready and the sooner it is, the better it is" On the 28th of June Francesco Ferdinando and his wife Sofia leave for the car for their official visit to Sarajevo Thank you.