College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions + Which Top-25 Teams Will Finish The Season Unranked?

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So grab a Snapple, take a second and enjoy the moment, because let's be honest, this might be the most refreshing part of your day. Snapple, make your break more interesting. All right, now let's get back to the show. And welcome back to the Cover 30 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fornelli, that's Bud Elliott. I'm Chip Patterson. Coming to you live on CBS Sports Network. Fired up to spend the next hour with you as we continue to look ahead to the 2026 season. Yes, our win totals are in full swing over on the podcast side. Come join us at youtube.com slash cover three or download wherever you get your podcast. But we're going to be talking rankings and brackets, all of America's favorite things today. And we begin with a little bit of follow up to Monday's release of the AP preseason poll. Now, the top 25. Was released and does have a lot of the same teams as the coaches poll or the CBS Sports 138. So we're not going to bore you with just a simple breakdown. We are going to advance this to the next step because recent history has told us something pretty interesting. Gentlemen, last year, 12 teams that were in the preseason AP top 25 poll did not even finish inside the top 25. And that includes multiple top 10 teams. So our task for the discussion today was to each identify. One team that is inside the AP preseason top 25 poll that we think will finish out. Again, 12 of them did it yesterday. You can see those on the screen right now, all the way up to Penn State, Clemson and LSU to ones that might have been a little bit easier to negotiate down in the back half of the rankings. So with this as our precedent, and we just need one from you, but Elliot, who have you identified as a team that is inside the preseason top 25 here in 2026 that you think will finish out? Who do you think could finish unranked and why? Great question, Chip Patterson. I'm actually going to go with Utah, right? And normally this would be crazy. Utah was one of the most consistently bankable assets in the top 25 for years, but they lose Kyle Whittingham as head coach to Michigan. They lose Jason Beck. They lose Buchanan, like their top young playmaker on offense. They lose some of their top defensive players. In fact, Utah lost every single guy who started for them on the offense and defensive lines. And that's really been crazy. And kind of Utah's identity as a program, that line of scrimmage. Now, the schedule is pretty friendly overall, but if they drop off and they're more of like a top, you know, 35, top 40 power rated team, I don't know if they're going to get that low. You know, then certain games become more losable, especially the back half of that schedule. There's a lot of potentially tricky games there. And like if you're a big 12 team, I'm not sure if you're ranked at nine and three. You're certainly not ranked at eight and four, particularly if you don't have a major non-conference game, which Arkansas is their non-conference. Maybe 10 years ago, you'd get some nice credit for that. But now with Arkansas, with a win total sitting in like three and a half, you probably won't get a lot of credit for that from the pollsters. So I think Utah here is one that's probably ranked on reputation, but maybe not on reality. Yeah, I think you've hit a lot of a lot of key points. There's another stat I saw, too. Like you mentioned everything that they lost. Our friend of the show, David Hale, he tweeted out a stat this morning that was ranking teams based on the returning number of snaps on their roster. And Utah is pretty much at the bottom of the Big 12. As far as returning experience is concerned. So you look at the production that they lost and then you just look at the overall experience that they lost on the field and on the sidelines. Like, I don't think Utah is suddenly going to be a bad team, but there are so many questions about them heading into the year because it's just been so long since Kyle Whittingham wasn't in charge of everything that was taking place in that program. We really don't know what they're going to look like. They could finish ranked. They could finish seven and five. I thought my biggest question about Utah was going to be about Morgan Scali taking over, but Morgan Scali has been president. I'm preparing for this for a long time. I might have more questions on the field than the sideline. But the Utes, of course, have a great chance to prove it. And as Bud mentioned, a nice run up to get everything settled with the tougher games on the back half of the schedule. OK, Tom, Bud picked a team that already is kind of in the danger zone to get kicked out. You know, back half. You lose one game. Voters are going to throw you out of the paint. Are you going a little higher up the rankings? Are we going with one that might surprise a few more people? Yeah, I'm going big game hunting. Like, I think if we look back at last year. I think that was a reflection of maybe the pollsters not quite catching up on to the modern landscape of what college football is. But I also think we're going to see more volatility from in programs from year to year than we're typically used to seeing. And I look at Ole Miss as a team that could be on the wrong end of that volatility. Obviously, Lane Kiffin has left. He has gone and taken the LSU job. He has taken plenty of players with him and he's taken plenty of coaches with him. So in steps Pete Golding, who was serving as the head coach during the playoff run last year. But this is. This is still his first year as a head coach. This is his first time having to go through an entire schedule with it. And I know Trinidad Chambliss is one of the best players in the country. He's looked at as a Heisman contender and the Heisman favorite going into the season. And I could see him having a good year. It's just I don't know if defensively this team is going to be as good. I don't know if they're as good offensively, even with what they do have coming back. And then you look at that schedule and there are a lot more tricky games on there than they typically had to deal with. Like that Louisville non-con game to start the year. That's a Louisville team that's ranked for a reason. That could be a problem. That could be tricky. You've got Texas. You've got Georgia. You've got Oklahoma. You've got Mizzou. You're at Florida. Like the win total for this team is seven and a half for a reason. And I think this is something that also fans in the SEC and maybe pollsters haven't quite gotten accustomed to yet. The SEC is going to nine games in conference play. The SEC is a very deep league. That means you have to play an extra SEC team instead of maybe a G6 team that you would have been favored by 24 points against. Your win total is going to start coming down in the long run. So. That's an Ole Miss team that like that's a great schedule. This could be a very good team, but they could also finish seven and five. Bud, thoughts? I honestly like in looking at this, I'm fairly high on Ole Miss and yet Tom is still absolutely correct. Right. We have plenty of opportunities here for Ole Miss to lose. Like there's no guarantee that Ole Miss beats Louisville in the opener like they're not favored by 20. You know, there are so many opportunities like they have to go I believe in and play in the swamp. Like Florida is a team that has some talent, they could jump up and bite you. They beat Texas last year, you know. And so I agree. I think they were a prime candidate. Now I got to pick last. So I got a little I got a little blowback for having picked Utah here. Now I picked last because I waited to open up the dock and then these guys are, you know, the teacher's pets here. So they opened up the dock immediately and filled it out. But Ole Miss was certainly gonna be on my list. Chip's pick was going to be on my list. If I was going to go real bold, I was going to go on Texas because like maybe that left tackle injury today. We'll see. But yeah. But, you know, a lot of this comes down to like, does eight and four with a difficult SC schedule and a real non-conference game keep you ranked? You know, I think that that's sort of the case. If you think eight and four and you're out, then certainly Ole Miss is a great pick. Yeah. And Ole Miss also, if they go under seven and a half is out, you know, I mean, that's that's sort of the proposition. Yeah. Seven and five is out. Yeah. Ole Miss goes under, has a very good team, a pretty good season. But against I mean, those are four preseason top eleven teams that were right there on that schedule. If you don't get it done against some of those bigger teams, you could find yourself very much on the outside looking in seven and five in the top twenty five record at the end of the year. Now, I wonder against this schedule whether eight and four would be good enough for Texas A&M, because yes, but I did target the Aggies here. They are up inside the top ten as well, all the way up at number eight. And this is a group that's got a lot to replace along the offensive line. They've got a lot of key defenders that are off to the NFL draft skill players where they're trying to utilize the transfer portal. to replenish things at the pass catcher positions and I just think back to the way that last season went where the AP voters were just downright disrespectful to Texas A&M and I don't say that as a criticism I say that as an observation because Texas A&M was 11-0 last season and never got higher than number three then of course they lose the regular season finale to Texas then they are one and done in the college football playoff losing at home in that windy game to Miami and now all of a sudden we step back and we're ready to thrust the Aggies back up inside the top 10 I think we might be headed back to Texas 8-4 and I think that against this schedule an 8-4 record could leave Texas A&M unranked I'm ready to be proven wrong but the loss of offensive coordinator Colin Kline as he goes to take over at Kansas State along with some of the other personnel changeover just make me think that in an SEC where there's a whole lot of teams that are all going to have to beat up on each other maybe at the margins Texas A&M takes a takes a step back after not being able to take advantage of that that good schedule Chip I have a correction to issue for you by the way we've been told by the comment section that every offensive coordinator who left who was good enough to get promoted to a head job actually they're up everybody's upgrading with the replacements the other stat I would throw out for you I think the AP voters were right last year the teams that Texas A&M beat went 5-44 against ranked competition they were a schedule merchant last year they were a good team not a great team they were largely inflated by playing the absolute SEC week after week until they ran into Texas and Miami yep 100% so Texas A&M Ole Miss and Utah but we're not going to be all negative here today now the cover three podcast we're too much into the good vibes so let's find some teams that were not selected for the AP top 25 poll in the preseason that we think are going to finish ranked up in the AP top 25 poll we'll tell you who the teams are and where they could even finish and more next up in the AP top 25 poll we'll tell you who the teams are and where they could even finish and more next the cover three podcast is proudly brought to you by our friends at home field the undisputed leader in premium vintage collegiate apparel it's made by and for true college football fans forget about cheap materials or boring low effort designs home field obsessively researches every single detail we're talking the way it feels and the way it feels and the way it feels and the way it feels and the way it looks from ultra soft fabrics and perfect fits to iconic retro logos home field delivers gear that truly defines your game day they carry unique designs for over 180 partner schools offering everything from cozy crew necks and hoodies to retro style jackets and top tier hats plus they just launched the stadium polo inspired by those bold vibrant game day vibes i already grabbed the stadium polo for myself and my family is already eyeing their incredible retro crew necks because the designs are just unreal you can shop the very best in game day apparel for your team now with home field and let them know cover three sent you take 20 off your first purchase with code cover three at checkout that's c-o-v-e-r-3 no spaces at checkout at home field apparel dot com or on the home field app home field the official outfitter of cover three and your game day back here on the cover three podcast live on cbs sports network it's tom franelli bud elliott i'm chip patterson and after spending a little bit of time looking at pre-season ranked teams that we think might not be able to live up to those expectations that might finish outside the top 25 and i'll add this wrinkle to it tom and it doesn't need to be specific though if you would like to get specific you can just sort of paint the picture of what kind of season would get them ranked and where you think the ultimate ceiling could be for your selection uh well i was the good you know the good kid that brings the apple to class and i got into the dock earlier than anybody else and i was the good kid that brings the apple to class and i got into the dock earlier than anybody else and i got into the dock earlier than anybody else and i took florida and i look at florida as a team that finishes outside the top 25 to begin the year that could end up in the college football playoff if you look at this team's roster talent wise they have good players they've had good players the last few years the talent hasn't really been the problem they haven't really hit it quarterback the coaching staff has not been able to develop guys well they brought in a new coaching staff john summerall comes from tulane where he went to the head coach for four years and has won three conference titles and in his fourth season he finished in second place losing a conference championship game this is a guy who has won he comes in he's got a talented team he brings in buster faulkner the offensive coordinator from georgia tech that we really like and in comes aaron filo the transfer who hasn't officially won the job yet but we kind of expect will win the job because of his familiarity with the offense so you look at the talent you look at the coaching staff and you look at that schedule that provides plenty of opportunities like i think it's far more likely that florida finishes right ranked than in the college football playoff but if things hit on all cylinders and they catch some breaks this is also a team that has plenty of opportunities to win big games that could vault them into the top 10 into the playoff conversation so florida to me going into the season is one of those teams that i think is unranked that is going to make a lot of people look kind of silly when the season ends tom i think that's a great pick honestly especially because florida if they stay healthy florida is on the very short list for the best receiver room in the sec and i think the honor goes to texas right now but like after texas what sec receiver room are you clearly taking over the gators if those guys are healthy i think on talent potential like they're right up there with anybody they could be really explosive and we know they have a lot of talent on defense and the injury issues that florida has had mean that the quality of the roster that billy napier had in his final couple seasons was better than the record just simply put i mean it was just better than the record and so i thought that john summerall did a good job of retaining some key players but then being able to supplement through the portal i like that pick there tom all right bud where would you like to turn your attention we're going to go tcu and you know in 2022 i had tcu 40 to 1 to win the big 12 and obviously was able to you know hedge out of that we talked about on the show all that year tcu should be a little more run game defense oriented this year which is kind of a stark departure from what they have been in recent years but it's also it's it's a factor of schedule right they they open with with unc obviously overseas but then grambling is still a factor of schedule they host state arkansas state they go to ucf they host byu they have to make the big road trip to baylor which you know is not very far they host west virginia they host kansas then they go to arizona then they they host kansas state they host utah then they go to texas tech like it's entirely possible that tcu wins a bunch of coin flip games or games that are sort of a weighted coin flip if you will end up 10 and 2 or 9 and 3 and ranked at the end of the season even if they get dump trucked by texas tech to finish yeah and then you have to make the big road trip to baylor they also bring in you know they lost josh hoover to indiana at quarterback which is the big headline mover but you know hoover had problems last year doing a little too much they bring in jaden craig from harvard who i can't really speak on because i wasn't watching a lot of harvard games last year i don't know about you two i'm not really big into ivy league football though shout out to our former co-host barton simmons but from what i've heard and people have talked about they're kind of high on this craig kid he's getting some nfl buzz they think that he will be a good player and as you mentioned like tcu is changing their philosophy about the game and they're not a bit on offense they're going to try to slow things down a little bit more they're going to try to run game a little more and they're saying craig is a pretty good fit for what they're looking to do so it could be one of those situations where maybe you downgraded quote-unquote talent wise but you've upgraded fit and performance wise so yeah with the big 12 just being as wide open after you get past texas tech as it is tcu is a good bet i think to maybe end up ranked and maybe even get kind of in that big 12 championship and playoff conversation themselves yeah our friend emory hunt giving you all levels of football analysis and two years ago tom he was actually in my ear telling me you got to watch this harvard offense you got to watch this harvard offense and not only had jayden craig at quarterback but cooper barcate who went to duke and is now going to be maybe a top three receiver at miami cooper barcate was on that harvard offense as well you know averaging 30 some odd points 400 some odd yards per game so a talent that certainly is generating a lot of buzz all around the frogs and i like the coordinator change as well you got to watch this harvard offense you got to watch this harvard offense and not only had jayden craig at quarterback but cooper barcate was on that harvard offense and not only had jayden boys i went a little deep here i might have gotten lost in the sauce because top 10 is going to be a little tall for this one i will admit but i would not be surprised if you at least maybe see this team 12 13 14 if things break correctly because i want to turn your attention to year one of the tosh lupoi era out in berkeley with the cal golden bears and obviously any conversation about cal football in 2026 is going to start with the excitement of what we might see in the future of the cal golden bears and obviously any conversation about cal football year two from jaron chiave sagapolitelli the superstar quarterback prospect with armed talent that just jumps every single time you watch however decision making was not always great kind of played like a freshman sometimes and also he didn't get a lot of help from his supporting cast so they've rebuilt the wide receiver room which should lead to a little bit more success that he cannot control and then if he can take those steps forward and be able to really develop into a quarterback who's able to avoid some of those yolo throws that can really hurt your team. Now we start to see the talent line up with the production and them take a step forward and the last piece of this is the schedule because the Cal Bears as I see it are not going to be heavy heavy underdogs but maybe once at SMU you know I expect them to be underdogs to Clemson but that game is going to be at home there's just not a ton of games where they're obviously going to be outclassed and the SMU one I cannot forget that Cal beat this SMU team last season on the final week of the regular season a result that propelled Duke ultimately into the ACC championship game so Cal is going to need to be on the right side of a lot of coin flips for this to be a true dark horse rise from unranked up inside the the top of the top 25 but they've got the quarterback then I think they've got a schedule that avoids Miami Louisville and a few other teams that could make it happen yeah you mentioned how they won't be huge underdogs in any of those games you know what was missing on all those games on that schedule outside of SMU there's not a single team with one of those little numbers next to their name this is all a bunch of unranked teams that they're facing so I think if you look at the end of the season if Cal has a good year they don't have the resume potential to be like an at-large but like let's look at what happened in the ACC last year if Miami screws up again there's not an there's not a non-zero chance that Cal could like sneak into the ACC championship and put themselves into playoff consideration that way so and I think that's a good point I think that's a good point I think that's a good point it is one of those teams where they're not ranked but you're right Chip I could see them floating in that 15 to 25 range all year 100% like if you're projecting this the formula is pretty simple right you want speed limit signs not roadblocks okay you can blow by the speeds you know the speed limit signs you can get up there into the top 10 with a nice 10 and 2 type record like I agree with Chip like where are they big dogs they're not they're not 14 point dogs at SMU they're probably like like high single digit to be honest yeah I was thinking eight and a half nine nine and a half somewhere like that again they're gonna have to win a lot of these coin flips but it helps having JKS as your quarterback when it comes to winning coin flips coming up on the other side everybody's doing their bracketology and you know Bud Elliott is going to be doing it all season long on the cover three podcast how about a sneak peek Bud's college football playoff bracket predictions all that and more next I have to tell you about this game-changing product I use before a night out with drinks it's called pre-alcohol by Z Biotics and it fits seamlessly into my routine as someone who loves catching up over dinner and drinks on the weekend I also refuse to lose my Sunday morning productivity I was definitely skeptical at first but having a bottle right before going out gives 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order finish we're going to fill out our championship picks on a conference level but what about the whole thing the national championship the college football playoff bud we've each been tasked with filling out a bracket and also predicting what it's going to look like so bud why don't you take us through your projected college football playoff bracket tip let's go ahead and do this thing right i actually think this is going to look somewhat similar to what we've had in prior years i i do think the big 10 is going to get three in i think the sec will get five in i think the big 10 teams are going to be ranked higher than the sec team or you know obviously because like you're getting three in and five in i think the big 10 teams are going to be ranked higher than the sec team meaning the sec will probably beat itself up a little bit so your teams to get by is miami one i think they go undefeated notre dame three oregon two and indiana at four now let's start with the first round here home field i think is going to matter a lot in this first round as it should i wish we had more playoff games uh played on the home fields but old miss nice year trinidad chambliss i believe in him going into the horseshoe i have ohio state behind what i think is going to be a vastly improved offensive line you get jeremiah smith you get julian saying another year starting there you know we heard some really positive things from the buckeyes about how they think this offensive scheme is actually going to be a big time improvement under arthur smith and i think i have enough faith in all these five stars that ohio state stacks together uh to have them have a pretty good defense so ohio state takes down old miss boise of course the you know sort of like the you know sacrificial lamb from the g6 has to go to athens you know georgia i think they're going to have a really young and talented offensive line defensive line i actually have some you know some real kind of faith in their pass rush and i think they're going to have a really good offensive line defensive line and i think they're going to have a really good offensive line for me it's just like the receivers this year do they have enough to actually win multiple playoff games the next one here everybody wanted to get this matchup scheduled in the regular season if you're texas tech texas is like i don't know our schedule is already pretty tough we don't really need to be playing texas tech right now texas tech gets their game in lubbock and they get a loss texas goes and beats texas tech i think it's a really interesting matchup here but i do think texas you know by that time if they have enough they're going to have a really good offensive line oh wait a second no injuries with texas left tackle you know trevor gooseby we'll see this is really tough for them they can be pretty beat up for the sc schedule we're going to go texas tech over texas here yes pulls the switcheroo that's a matchup everybody's going to talk about for a long time in the lone star state maybe it actually gets them to schedule another game down the road in the regular season and then oklahoma at lsu lane kiffin makes the playoff oklahoma does make it into the playoff but i think lane kiffin in baton rouge death valley hopefully they put this one at night lsu does go ahead and take care of oklahoma thanks to quarterback sam levitt and what i think is a really young and talented defense for the tigers now to the second round i wish they were these were not played at neutral sites but of course they are at neutral sites we see a rematch from last year ohio state miami guys i had miami's number one seed i think this team is absolutely loaded i think they have a i think he could be the difference maker here miami has one of the few receiving quarters i think actually matches up pretty well with what ohio state runs out there they don't have jeremiah but they have malachi tony they have they have cooper now they have a lot of really good talented guys on that team i have miami uh taking down ohio state here to get to the national semifinals then georgia indiana a matchup i think we've wanted to see for quite a while uh based on on the twitter fan bases that go at each other quite a bit georgia saying indiana doesn't play anybody of course indiana being like we played everybody in last year's playoff and we killed them who wins here i actually have indiana squeaking it out in the closest of possible games i do think curtis and eddie is the best coach in the sport right now and just man indiana just doesn't make mistakes i think georgia will make just a few more so i have indiana moving on to the semis then texas tech after squeaking by texas i got notre dame taking them down cj car i think is very much in the conversation for the best quarterback in the country so i think qb makes the difference there and then lsu their cinderella run under lane kiffin i have that coming to an end against an oregon team that i think might be the most loaded team in the country that defensive line is just absolutely fantastic probably them in oklahoma as the argument this year for who has the best defensive line in the sport and look at this another rematch for miami from last year's college football playoff this time i have miami getting revenge over indiana i think i think the hurricanes get that one done i think they're so good on the lines of scrimmage i think they have more difference makers and i think this year the upgraded quarterback over beck is meaningful and then notre dame oregon i mean you get cj car against dante moore you get notre dame's excellent offensive line against oregon's awesome defensive line the difference here i think it's evan stewart and decorian moore the difference makers on the outside for oregon going up against a fantastic irish secondary i think oregon has a little bit more firepower notre dame makes it to the semis but oregon takes it there and then look this is mario cristobal's new school against his old school miami's won a bunch of national titles none in about a quarter century oregon i mean right now the o stands for zero i think that changes this year i think dan lenning takes it home gets the first national title for the ducks on the back of what is just an absolutely loaded team that seems to have all passed on the nfl draft and come back on a mission to take it home tom what do you think i was a long for the ride i enjoy i don't enjoy fan fiction generally it's not the area of the bookstore that you will find me when i'm checking out the local bookstores but uh but man that was i enjoyed that run right there and of course the dan lenning has coached well in big games he has been knocking on the door of a national championship and he seems to believe if you just keep fielding a team good enough to win it eventually you'll have the breakthrough what'd you make any takeaways from bud's bracket either There wasn't anything in there I thought crazy I mean I think a lot of it made sense I would love the idea of Texas Tech hosting a first round game against Texas and then beating them in that game I think that would just fuel the internet and content for decades the way things have gone between those two programs the last couple of years for them you know for Texas to get back to the playoff and then not even win a game because they lost to the Red Raiders a program that for years Texas has looked down upon I mean Texas didn't even think the league that they were in together was good enough for Texas that's why they left so I think that would be incredible I like a lot of the revenge aspects I just yeah pretty good bracket by my estimation yeah Notre Dame Indiana in year one of the 12 team playoff you know last year being able to get that Alabama Oklahoma games just sort of just absolute bloody hammer fight and then if we could get this one too a lot of fun matchups you know they said there were going to be a lot of unintended unintended consequences from expanding the playoff but really fun rivalries born out of early round results that's a new unintended consequence that we might be building on right there I'd love it if we saw that kind of in-state flavor well coming up on the other side it's Tom's turn he steps up to show you what his brackets looking like all that and more before the season kicks off everyone's making predictions who wins the division who makes the playoffs who's lifting the trophy on Kalshi America's number one prediction market platform you can trade those predictions in a live market will Buffalo win the AFC championship Buffalo is currently trading at 14% meaning a $100 trade would pay out $590 if they win their conference on Kalshi you're trading against peers in a live market and as the probability changes you can buy in and out download the Kalshi app and use code fan to get up to $500 in bonus credits when you trade $25 Kalshi trade on anything 18 and up only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply event contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions prices values and available markets may differ from those mentioned for more information see Kalshi.com regulatory back here on the cover three podcast live on CBS Sports Network that's Tom Fornelli, Bud Elliott, and I'm Chip Patterson letting you know the way that we're seeing the college football playoff picture not just how it's going to finish and where teams might be in the bracket but then what we think might happen when the bracket gets going Tom you are up next why don't you take us through your college football playoff bracket prediction I'll start by saying that it is the middle of August and every single prediction I have right now is 100% correct and there's absolutely no way any of this could go wrong this is all very easy to predict at this time of year so I'm going to start by saying that it is the middle of August and every single prediction I have right now is 100% correct and there's absolutely no way any of this could go wrong this is all very easy to predict at this time of year I've got Oregon as the number one seed they're followed by Notre Dame Georgia and Miami all getting first round buys all winning their conferences except for you know Notre Dame but I do have the Ducks getting the nod over Notre Dame with the one seed simply first strength of schedule and winning the Big Ten whereas Notre Dame might even have a better record but the overall strength of schedule won't be enough to get them the number one seed and then you could see with the first round games that will be on campus I mentioned earlier in the show I thought Ole Miss was a candidate to not finish you know ranked after starting the year in the top 10 they're not in my playoff field instead I've got Ohio State at 5 Texas at 6 Texas Tech at 7 Indiana at 8 LSU at 9 and that will be the loudest point of contention when it comes to yelling about the rankings because even though LSU will have a worse record than Indiana their fans will be yelling that they should be ranked higher because of their strength of schedule and it's a big deal because do you want to play your first round game in Bloomington or would you rather play it in Death Valley so I'd understand why they'd be furious and fighting for it at 10 Alabama's getting back at 11 every college football playoff field needs a schedule merchant merchant hello Penn State you're this year's and then at 12 UNLV as the representative from the g6 they win the Mountain West they are the highest ranked team they get in so now let's get to the games LSU Indiana I mentioned it they wanted to be in Baton Rouge for a reason because going to Bloomington and playing in like 30 degree weather in December will not be fun for the Tigers and I have Indiana squeaking out the wind over Lane Kiffin who is bundled up in relatively like five different jackets like he was that time when when he was in the Sun Bowl with USC the next game Ohio State over UNLV I don't think I need to go very far into my explanation for this one Ohio State probably beats UNLV by a billion here in Columbus I don't know what they're doing in the second half maybe getting the freshmen some snaps getting them ready for the 2027 season now we go to Austin Texas is hosting the schedule merchant Penn State Nittany Lions so I'm not saying don't deserve to be here they've had a very good season it's just they haven't really had to face a team like Texas to this point and I think Texas holds the home field here they hold serve they move on to the next round knocking out the Nittany Lions and finally Texas Tech gets to host a playoff game in Bud's you know bracket he had them hosting Texas and beating Texas well for the second straight year Alabama goes on the road to start the college football playoff and pulls over the it pulls off the upset against a former Big 12 foe beating Oklahoma last year beating the other side of the rivalry this year to move on to face Notre Dame so we go to Indiana and Oregon gosh where have I seen this before um Dante Moore does not throw a pick six on the first snap of this game in fact Dante Moore has a much better performance and it turns out this year it's Josh Hoover's mistakes who damn Indiana to the loss and Oregon moves on the first quote-unquote big playoff win of Dan Lanning's career at Oregon next we have the rematch from Ohio State Miami Bud had it in his bracket although his was a one versus an eight mine is a four versus a five and the other difference is I have the Ohio State Buckeyes getting their revenge this season moving on knocking off the Miami Hurricanes who are a one and done in the playoff after getting to the title game last season next we get Georgia and Texas which we have seen plenty of times and you know Georgia has gone one and done the last two years it would be pretty bad for Kirby Smart to go one one and out in his third college football playoff and while I kind of wonder if Texas is the better team in this matchup I'm I'm not gonna pick Texas to beat Georgia until I see Texas actually beat Georgia so I've got Gunner Stockton out dueling Arch Manning the dogs defense comes through holds the Longhorns down and the Bulldogs move on to the semifinals their first playoff win in three years and then we have Notre Dame and Alabama yeah I I think Notre Dame is very very very very very very good they weren't going to be tested much in the regular season that causes them problems in the first half of this game Alabama leads at halftime but they go into the locker room Marcus Freeman gets the boys fired up and they come out guns blazing in the second half and they pull off an incredible comeback to take out the Crimson Tide and move on to the semifinals where they will be facing or in the first game we have Oregon Ohio State a rematch of my projected Big Ten championship game Oregon won it the first time and well Oregon wins it again the second time I I think that they just have a little too much fire power on offense for this Ohio State defense which will be one of the best defenses in the country it's just with Dante Moore with Evan Stewart with the Corey Moore with that stable of running backs that they have they just they're too hard to stop Ohio State Julian saying and the boys cannot keep up Jeremiah Smith's career ends in the college football playoff semifinals he's ready to go to the NFL and be a superstar there now we get Notre Dame and Georgia a game we saw a few years ago in the playoff it was Gunner Stockton's debut as he had to step in for an eight playoff game against Riley Leonard and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and it wasn't good enough and Gunner Stockton's not going to be good enough this time either CJ Carr and the Irish move on to get to the title game so we've got the one versus the two it's as chalky as it can get and the result is as chalky as it can get just like Bud did I have Oregon winning the national title taking out Notre Dame who for the second time in three years to the championship game and just comes up short Heartbreak City for the Fighting Irish but Oregon becomes the fourth straight Big Ten team to win a national title in the fourth different one and Dan Lanning finally gets that monkey off of his back the Oregon Ducks get that monkey off of their back they are your national champion Bud thoughts on what you just saw as uh as Tom has like you uh selected the Ducks as his team for the uh to be the eventual champion yeah I mean I I think this makes total sense I I've run a lot of simulations of my model I I actually I'm I'm we did not consult on this I I had a couple model runs that were really you know really similar uh to this I if you look at Oregon just occasionally we see a team in college football where that defensive line is just too much for all of the college offensive lines and you know I'm not saying Oregon is for sure that but if there's a team that has a chance to be that this year it does look really uh like it's the Ducks I mean there's people that will tell you they had all four you know defensive linemen pass up on being third round or a higher picks uh to come back you know like maybe that's an eight million dollar defensive line maybe it's a 10 million dollar defensive line and like two legitimate NFL quarterbacks in the final is is awesome I think like in this year with what we think the quarterback you know draft class is gonna look like I have a really hard time picking somebody to win it all or to even reach the final unless you've got a guy that has like real first round potential you know taking that ball from center yeah that's one of those ways that we have to change the way that we talk about college football at the very top of the sport are you a playoff contender or are you a national title and those two things can be very very different because the thing about the 12 team playoff and golly i wish more people would talk about this you just got to win multiple games against other playoff teams you can't fraud your way into a national championship with a quarterback who can only throw it 12 times a game i mean you've got to be able to really impose your will against multiple of the best defenses back to back to back at the very end of what is an already grueling season yeah i think it's absolutely a big piece of this along the way and coming up on the other side i step into the hot seat chair and let you know how i'm seeing this whether it's the same teams that we've seen populate a lot of the bracket for tom and bud maybe but will it be the same seeds i'll explain how i ranked them how we got there and how i think it goes next as your team grows you quickly realize that traditional banking isn't built for collaboration you're constantly being interrupted mid-task to approve a tiny software subscription or share a one-time login 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members fdic back here on the cover 3 podcast live on cbs sports network that's tom franelli that's bud elliott and i'm chip patterson and it's my turn that's right we got bud and we got tom and they laid out their college football playoff bracket predictions and how they think it'll go so now let's step up beginning with how i think we got to the bracket now i do have notre dame as my number one overall seed that is a projection that they go 12 and 0 that includes beating byu that includes beating miami though i do think miami will take care of business against the rest of the schedule which gets the buy i've got indiana beating oregon in the big 10 title game very specific i know but that explains the three and the five and then i've got georgia taking care of business in the sec the rest of the way you see oregon at the five seed after being in the big 10 runner-up ohio stayed in the six missing out on the big 10 title game but still with a bunch of wins texas tech is the big 12 champion and then boys this is where it got fun this is where all of the campaigning pays off because you know what the selection committee is going to do in my projection just stuff the rest of the bracket with sec teams i don't know just walk on down if you got an sec patch and you're the first one in line you can go texas sure lsuk old miss go oklahoma fine and then finally going a little bit off the beaten path here i was looking at james madison bringing back a few enough pieces from last year's team to think that billy napier is going to be able to have a real advantage in the sunbelt they also play both liberty and san diego state in the non-con those might provide opportunities to get wins against other conference title contenders so jmu in there leads us to a first round rematch and we're going to see what happens next we're going to see what where i do imagine oregon will take care of business okay let's fill it out now we've got texas beating lsu in that 8-9 matchup that is a arch manning is greater than sam levitt and i feel pretty good about that oregon again over jmu and possibly by another crooked score just like we saw the in that game last year so the ducks advance into the quarterfinals moving down into the ohio state oklahoma game this is where i've got the buckeyes i think that the buckeyes slotted here in a spot where their vegas odds to win the national title might be top three but yet the way the committee has seeded this thing with maybe some preference for other conference champions that leads to the buckeyes being in my opinion a little underseeded so i think they've got a big advantage on oklahoma i think the buckeyes advance so that they can get a shot at indiana in the quarterfinals then ole miss against texas tech a game that would be in lubbock no word on cfp officials and how they feel about tortillas but i'll tell you how i feel i feel that trinidad chambliss is more of a pick than will hammond to be able to lead the way in a playoff game ole miss advances to the quarterfinals texas and notre dame would feed families yes indeed and i tell you what else would that the texas longhorns pulling off a little 1-8 upset this is where the fighting irish and not having a very daunting schedule could actually end up proving true what the sec has screamed about their meat grinder of a conference and a nine-game schedule the texas longhorns more battle tested they pull it off against the fighting irish moving down into miami up against oregon and this is a spot where i think the hurricanes are going to be really having to battle something they did not have last year and that is championship expectations they came in as a 10 seed last year played the uphill underdog the whole way this time i've got the ducks coming in with their hair on fire taking care of business and taking out miami moving down into that ohio state indiana game i mean these two are just going to be compared to each other all season long in this particular game i'm going to go with the buckeyes this is where the chip on the shoulder from the losses last season could end up helping them then ole miss and georgia nightmares for georgia fans i know tom mentioned the one and done record i think that in this particular case the dogs finally get that college football playoff quarterfinal win that has eluded them for the last two seasons finally i've got oregon over texas in one game and i think that's going to be a big win for them and i think that's one of our semifinals as the ducks go toe-to-toe with the quarterback in arch manning who is the equal of dante moore but i think that oregon's defense as bud mentioned earlier ends up being the difference maker then ohio state and georgia played an absolute classic in 2022 in the semifinals that game was won by the georgia bulldogs this game i say is won by ohio state which leaves us with what would be a rematch between a regular season game between the big 10 runner-up and a title game that's why they're the five and the six but it is also the one and the two in the preseason poll and i am going to go with that preseason number one the ohio state buckeyes my projection that they win this bracket and they become the first team since alabama in 2017 to go after being preseason number one finish as number one one last wrinkle here on the ohio state and the alabama 2017 connections the alabama 2017 season they did not win their conference and yet won the national championship in this prediction ohio state would not win its conference and yet win the national championship tom thoughts on uh on the bracket as we see it play out here two things stand out for me here with your bracket one is the shock of the world's number one college football playoff selection committee respecter chip patterson basically telling the selection committee they have no idea how to rank teams and seed teams because you've got all the top seeds going out pretty quickly so i can't believe you're going to win the national championship you would disrespect the selection committee that way but what i like about that is as bud mentioned when he did his a couple you know a little while ago we would like to see more games played on campus and if we had yet another season in which so many teams that earn first round buys but are forced to play at neutral sites get knocked out in their first game with the college football playoff it would really help drive the narrative that we have to have the first two rounds being on campus whether or not they expand the thing so hopefully that would play it out but i do think ultimately the end makes a ton of sense like ohio state winning a national title and beating oregon considering they're both two of the top ranked teams in the country going into the season makes plenty of sense and i think that's a good bracket i think it's i love the idea of having two big 10 teams and two sec teams in the semi-finals because a it's likely to happen and b it just drives that narrative further and the fact that you've got both big 10 teams winning those games well we we know where your allegiance lies i mean i'd be super happy to see that happen but i think it's a good bracket i think it's a good bracket we're excited to watch all these games the only real pushback on this thing at all i think jmu is gonna have to be like far and away the top g16 because i think most of america cut that oregon jmu game off when it was 34 to 3 and turned over to packers bears which was 6-0 heading to halftime and this is a tv product so i do think the selection committee's gonna be like all right we kind of need some new blood in there from the g6 i mean jmu could certainly make it i don't think they would totally rig it but if it's close i don't think jmu is getting benefit of the doubt oh a quick response here oh go ahead tom i just want to say i definitely was watching all of oregon james madison and not the bears packers yeah as he's got his chicago bears hat on um i my thought here was what if all of those pack 12 teams beat each other up if the margin isn't great enough for boise state to be able to have a high win total that was the the premise there to think outside the box i do think jmu outside of a road trip to old dominion early in the season they're going to be pretty heavy favorites the rest of their sunbelt competition but it doesn't matter who it is we've all got the 12 seed losing uh to the five which would be coming out of likely the big 10 or the sec well if you liked what you saw if you liked what you heard please come and hang out with us we are rocking nearly five days a week at this point and for the rest of the season over on the cover three podcast youtube.com slash cover three at 11 a.m eastern time on wednesday we will be doing the second half of our big 10 win totals best win totals bets coming up on thursday 11 a.m eastern time so much more all you have to do is scan that qr code so that you can download and 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