Closing Bell: 8/24/26

Welcome to Closing Bell. I'm Scott Wapner live from post nine here at the New York Stock Exchange. This make-up breakout begins with the critical days ahead for this market. In video earnings, loom lards, the Fed Chairman speaks to end the week. Both are sure to be market moving events. And we're going to ask our expert today on this program. What's really at stake? Here's the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation. We're only green in the Dow. It's pretty much how we've been. It feels like it's one of those weeks where it's wait and see for those critical events that are days away. First in video Wednesday, worst Friday, market waiting to see what happens with both of those. Oil's lower today as the United States launches an economic offensive against Iran. We'll have more on that in a minute. Needs are also a little bit lower. As CNBC reports, the Treasury could use its trillion dollar general account to continue bond market five back. So the two years elevated a little bit, but it's the 10 year that's getting through much needed relief along with the 30 year. Nvidia has been down six days in a row. And it is read again by two and a half percent today ahead of those numbers mid week. Another mega cap, green apple, Tim Cook beginning his final week as CEO. It does take us to our talk of the tape. All that lies ahead for these markets. We do want to first though go to Aiman jabbers. He has the very latest on the economic announcements made this afternoon by the Treasury Secretary against Iran. Aiman. Scott, they're calling it Operation Economic Outcast, but the Treasury Department stopping short of imposing widely expected sort of massive secondary sanctions against countries that do business within with Iran instead saying what they're doing is putting those countries on notice. The Treasury Secretary called it a warning shot and saying that after an unspecified timeline, they'll take unspecified action against those countries. If they don't bring themselves into compliance with US expectations about trade with Iran, the Treasury Secretary was asked in the press conference that he had at 1 o'clock this afternoon. Why not impose those sanctions today and his answer explains a lot. Here's what he said. We are giving everyone the opportunity to remedy bad behavior. Why would I want to blow up the global financial system? We believe that it is important to level set and give people a cure period, but they should know that that will move very quickly and that we are serious. So the Treasury Secretary there saying he didn't want to blow up the global financial system. Clearly that would happen if you tried to impose massive secondary sanctions on China and just about every other economy that trades with Iran. So the challenge for Treasury is how to impose these how to impose US credibility financially on these other countries without doing too much damage to the global economy. With this warning period, what the Treasury Secretary is saying is that it gives countries time to get themselves right with US expectations for trade. Meanwhile, Scott, just within the past couple of seconds here, we've gotten a reaction from the Iranian economy minister telling State TV in Iran this is according to Reuters saying that we are fully prepared for the US sanctions. They cannot cut off our financial arteries. So the Iranians are sort of doing some chest thumping of their own here and we'll see who has the bigger financial blunder bus in all of this. But clearly the US is signaling that it is preparing to take some action against those countries that are trading with Iran Scott. So what's really notable here too, Aiman is that the Treasury Secretary himself has inserted himself in two key areas here. This action against Iran but also the activity that they're trying to do and the intervention that they talk about doing more of in the bond market. Which our own Steve Lisbon reported could be even more significant than first thought if they use the general account. A lot of times what you try to do out of Treasury is sort of use the power of suggestion. You suggest we might do something and it kind of becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because the power of the US government and the US financial footprint of the United States around the globe is so big that if you simply suggest you might do something then people start lining up to follow the direction that the US is setting. The challenge comes when there's global resistance to that as there certainly is from Tehran likely is from Beijing and then also if there's any question of US credibility in that if there's any question that the US won't follow through on those actions then that's when you start to see governments around the world say well wait a second what can I get away with here and how far can I really push this and do I want to test it. >> And that's the period that we're in now but what the Treasury Secretary said in this one o'clock briefing is that this is the beginning of a process in which the United States is determined to really isolate and asphyxiate economically the country of Iran. >> Yeah two key thorns really politically too trying to get a resolution to what's been taking place in Iran and also getting yields down for the impact that it's been having on the housing market among other places within the economy. >> Thank you Amy and thanks so much that's Amy and Jarvis at the White House as you see now to our panel. >> Hi tower Stephanie link solace is Dan Greenhouse paying capital's Courtney Garcia, Steph and quarter both CNBC contributors good to have everybody here so Dan you first the idea of yields trying to deal with yields. >> Trying to deal with Iran and the markets fall where do you think in all of this well the market equity markets well I guess both the equity and the credit markets really haven't carried thus far despite all the consternation in the commentary about ten and thirty year longer duration yields backing up. >> So I don't think it really matters thus far and it's partially because of what I'll call ICI IEI ICI something else IEI inflation the economy and issuance. >> There's nothing really that the Treasury can do about any of that so you have this upward pressure on yields from these three items inflation the economy and issuance. And thus far because of those reasons particularly the economic part of it markets really haven't really cared very much. >> I thought you were going to say earnings and that's the reason why we we have been able I think as a market to kind of look past whether it was rising oil prices or you know rising yields at least to some degree this is going to be a critical week as we said on both accounts earnings within video and then rates depending on what the Fed chair says at the end of the week a market moving week I don't see how it could be anything but that. >> I 100% agree the reason that we fell 1.4% last week was because yields were going in the wrong direction and oil was going in the wrong direction. So if that still continues expect more volatility but I do think earnings are going to save the day I have no doubt Nvidia synopsis marvel are going to crush the numbers but we want to hear from these companies is how they are monetizing. Why are they spending as much as they are at the end of the day 125 billion dollars coming just from Nvidia spending on a variety of different companies by the way there's like 15 different companies they have investments in. I want to hear a little bit more about that I think the gross margins are going to be fine that's what people are kind of scared about okay so that's going to be good Marvel is going to crush it as well. Broadcom and Marvel are absolutely the the juggernauts in custom asics and they will do well the ones that aren't even talked about it as much as they probably should be. Marvel's I got 170% year to date right well that one is had a good run but Nvidia and Broadcom have actually underperformed semiconductor industry 53% year to date so I think the expectations are much lower which is why the reaction is going to be so important Scott if they go down or they can't rally on really great news and great commentary that's going to be problematic. Warsh I think unfortunately I don't think it's going to be a non event I think he's still in this he's in three months into this job they have a whole new committee he wants to figure out new tools to figure out what's the right way to measure inflation and I don't think he's going to give us a lot and so if the market sells off on that well go back to earnings and by the way I have a whole list here I'll come back to you do because it's not just tech. I don't know what the back up in yields if it brings any new pressure on the Fed chair specifically you know he's now got to sort of keep that in mind while weighing the activity that the treasury is prepared to take and how that impacts the movement in yields relative to what he wants to do himself you feel like the yields are as big a story as people are talking about or not for this market. They're going to be a story mainly because regardless of what the Fed does they're affecting the short end of the curve not the long end of the curve. The long end that's what's going to affect mortgage rates corporate debt issuance like the bigger things that can really affect the economy and they don't have as much of a say over that that's where they're much more concerned about what's happening with things like the national debt right now that's getting a lot harder to swallow those huge numbers that are coming out there and I think that's probably going to have more of a weighing but I do agree with you I think earnings are going to over weigh this picture. I think at the end of the day as long as earnings are hanging in there and they are and I think this week we have a video on Wednesday and then we have the Fed speaking on Friday I think what it is going to be the bigger story that if they can prove that this AI demand story continues and especially what they're saying with memory chip pricing and how that's affecting their demand and their customers affordability. I think that's going to be a lot more important than what the Fed says or doesn't say because people want clarity. I think the one thing we know from more to this point is he doesn't want to give that much information people just need to get used to. He's now in some respects forced to give more information don't forget it's not a news conference still Q&A it's a speech and we remember when Cher Powell gave his speech right before the rate hike regime was eight minutes. So who knows what we're going to get do you agree though that in videos the biggest story this week because you don't expect. I thought you were going to show Friday AI is a much bigger story than you thought I reserved and I made that case I'm certainly on a loan but. I made that case for a year or two. I'll just add real quick with respect to Worsh. Everyone's focused on the Forward Guidance side of things. If there is going to be a surprise from him this weekend, it's going to be him, I don't want to say feeling the pressure, but choosing to respond to the demand not for Forward Guidance, but for some color around how the Fed is thinking about what we call the reaction function, the interplay between the economic data, et cetera, and how the Fed thinks about interest. But then why did he set up these committees? He said by the end of the year he's going to listen to the committees, we've got between now and the end of the year. - Unless, yeah, but I think there are people who want, I mean, Mussolom, the St. Louis president was on the network. Last week said there's a difference between the two. You cannot give Forward Guidance. - But I'm not telling you today, this is what he was saying. I'm not telling you today where I'm going to hike or cut, but I feel like I can give you the ideas in my mind on what the mechanisms are to get us from point A to point B. - Rick Reader agrees with the reforms that Chair Worsh is talking about making. And even he last week when he was sitting here says the market does need a little bit more, so maybe that it can settle down. - They need better tools to figure out the accuracy of inflation, right? Because that's the other thing that they're focused on. It can't just be core PCE. He's looking at a lot of various different metrics, looking maybe at the trailing three months. That's what Rick Reader also talked about. The trailing three month is 1.6% in CPI. So there's other ways to look at inflation. And I think that's what they're gonna try to say. And I just think it's too early, Scott. - Yeah, and I'll just add real quick on the Nvidia side of things. As Courtney and Steph just both argued and I would agree, everyone expects them to be raised that the quality of the earnings report in that sense is not really a question. The issue is gonna be around as Steph alluded to the what we'll call the circular financing and the funding of the AI infrastructure. I think if Christina Parks and Evalos was here, - And she's gonna be here in a second, right after your finish. - But go ahead, finish your final one over here. - I imagine what she's going to say is the company's position is we have all this money, we generate a ton of money, and we are seeding our future and the industry's future for the next however many years. - Let's bring her in. Christina is waiting anyway to talk to us. And look, the stock's been on a six day losing streak. It's down again, and that was after a nice move higher. So it maybe complicates the story for investors a bit going into Wednesday. - Because investors right now are just hesitant what's gonna be that next major catalyst to move the stock, which is maybe why they're not getting in. Dan mentioned it, the numbers at this point really aren't the story. Beat, zoomed across the board. We know that demand surging lead times of stretch from six weeks, a quarter ago to nearly 40 now. Wall Street actually wants is specifically in the guide. The first real read on how fast the new Ruben chips are ramping the next iteration. Then there's also the margins. In video told customers it's raising AI server prices as much as 17% it's reported that. Driven by soaring memory costs. The question is whether that protects its mid 70s gross margins you can see on your screen, which is estimated to decline in Q3 maybe even more, or if memory still eats into it. Watch too also for the various CPU and new multi-billion dollar line as AI agents take off. And then to your last point, all of you on the panel, hanging over it is the circular financing debate. In video has bankrolling the same customers who buys these chips like it's up to $105 billion backstop for an open AI data center in Ohio. That's just one example. The question in Wall Street will want answered is how much of a video's own balance sheet is on the line. No doubt they have a lot of free cash flow to deploy investing like a VC across the board from poolside, reflection AI, et cetera. But the big question is how much of that is going into these investments as opposed to shareholders who maybe at this point want to buy back? You have any indication or feel maybe in how Nvidia is thinking about the data center issue and the political backlash that's happening in various parts of this country at some suggests is only going to get worse. What are you hearing if anything on that very issue? Which you could potentially say is the cause of the weakness in the stock most recently? - That and also the circular financing just because it has to fund a lot of these firms and help these firms get financing that maybe otherwise wouldn't because of their investment grade. So I just wonder too, how much that weighs on to it. But in terms of Nvidia, that's the reason why they're so keen on investing in the entire portion of the data center, not only just for the data center bill, but the software, the open weight models, with that poolside deal. So they are fully aware, I think everybody is aware that when you make a promise to build a data center, that promise is most likely going to be pushed back by whatever amount of months and years because of political black, not my backyard, et cetera. And so the only way that they can prepare for that is to ensure that they get demand from all facets of the globe. And so that $500 billion financing deal that we first recorded here on CNBC is an example that they're helping the smaller players, the smaller AI labs, get access to their chips because they don't want to rely solely on the hyperscalers who may face backlash with the build out. - It's good to talk to you. Thanks for being here, right on Q2. We've seen a part of the novelist joining us on Nvidia. Here's gonna be a tough question for you, okay? - Okay. - If you had to own Nvidia or Marvel for the next year, you can't say both. - Except I do, I know, but what do you feel better about for the next 12 months, do you think? Which one? - I think the risk reward right here is Nvidia because it has underperformed not only 52% year-to-date relative to the socks, but also 75% in the past year. If they're free cash flow, Chris, you just mentioned it. 96 billion, gonna be double that next year. They have a great balance sheet. I don't have a problem with the circular financing. I have a problem with the fact that they're not being really open about it or giving us as much detail as I want to feel comfortable about it. But all by the way, Nvidia has a $2 billion investment in Marvel, they have a $2 billion investment in synopsis. So the names that I own, they are also getting help from this company too. The stock should not be trading at 18 times forward estimates, a five year low given the growth rate and the sustainability of the growth rate in Marvel. - You're talking about Nvidia. - Yeah. - And I think that's why you hear a lot of, and Christine to say that. Well, you hear a lot of people talking about a buyback. It's not just-- - I don't want a buyback. - I don't want a buyback. - I'm just saying in terms of people. - I'd rather them continue to invest so that they can actually see better growth going forward. They had 85% revenue growth last quarter. I want to see that for the next several years. And if they take that free cash flow and they're just buying back stock, you know, I just think investing is more important at this stage of the game and where we are in the AI cycle, which is in the third inning in my opinion. - It's an interesting opinion that you have because whereas you have issues with meta, spending endlessly enough that you sold the stock. - Because they're not seeing the, they're not seeing nearly the growth or nearly the monetization and they're spending on stupid stuff. Some stupid stuff. - That's the more important part that they're spending as the market deems. They're spending more on stupid stuff because we've talked before. You're seeing monetization in greater usage, Instagram, wheels, etc. - I say it and that sort of thing. - Yes. - Right, no. But I mean, the reality labs. 80 billion, you know, and they're losing 80 billion. Like that just doesn't make a lot of sense. - If we spin it forward and say okay, you've got, you know, key week with NVIDIA and Marvel. This, we how important you think to chip trade? The momentum trade is right now for this market. Can the market, as long as interest rates are elevated, can the market move higher without the chips participating to a meaningful degree? - Well, I think today is a good example of that. You're seeing the chips are down, the NASDAQs down, but the Dow is a financials are up. I think anytime you're seeing this, you're not seeing this broad sell-off and risk. You're seeing people are rotating to the other areas of the market. And I do think you want to remain in the chip space. I mean, I think what we're seeing here is the hyper-skillish spending. That's the big concern here. But the demand is not the concern, which is where the chips and the infrastructure and everything that goes along that, whether it's energy, it's the grid build out, it's the cooling, it's everything to build out, AI is going to happen regardless of if people are spending too much money. I don't know, the demand is there. And I think that's how you want to play this as an investor. - Do we think that the interest rate issue complicates the broadening story? If you look at, for example, industrial's last week, they didn't have a good week. They're down yet again today. I mean, as long as rates are up, are the cyclical areas of the market, going to be more muted, I guess. - I don't know. We can focus on any one day or whatever. I think you should look at a more longer term timeframe. - I know that, but we got sort of hyper focused on yields last week. - Yeah. - The same week in which industrials just didn't do well. And there seems to be more focus on elevated yields and the cyclical trade. - Sure, maybe in the short term. I mean, you look at the outperformance of Caterpillar and G. Vernova and Vertiv, et cetera. A lot of those larger industrial names, comfort systems. So maybe there was some rotation last week. I will say, 'cause it seemed to be ending here on, you brought up interest rates. - You've heard of down 12% in the last year, by the way. - Yeah. - Still. - Last month, I'm sorry, the last month, my bad. - Still an essential part of this buildup. I will say, the threat to bomb the bond market, and I need to bring this up, because I thought of a great name for it. On the halftime report, you did coin operations zero-dark 30-year, which I think the public, you deserve credit for that. I think I've come up with a better one. And it's operations shock and all full deficit. I think that's a better one. And if we do bomb the bond market, I think that would presumably be better for the industrials. - Well, you made the comment when you sat down that if, in fact, that happened, that there would be fewer bonds out there, so that would-- - Heels for us prices up. - Greater demand for the remaining bond. - And then yields would go down. - Which would be something of a stimulus for the housing market. - All right, I'm glad you went there real quick, but let's get back to the matter at hand, okay? But thank you. - It's August, we're trying to-- - Yeah, whatever it takes, by any means. The broadening story, how do you feel about it? - I mean, I still like the broadening story. I think you want to own things like financials and industrials. I think this theme is gonna continue and I don't think this means you get out of AI. I think this trade is early innings. I agree with Stephanie here. I don't think it's going anywhere, but you want to make sure you're owning things 'cause this changes day to day and week to week. And I think when we are looking at the yields right now, that's gonna continue to be a story. And when you're seeing the 10 year between four and five percent, historically, that's actually not that out of the norm. And I think that can actually just signal that we're in a growing economy. But the reason that it goes higher, I think it's a bigger concern. - Is five the line in the sand? Because Wolf today says when rates bite, the 10 year above five would accelerate headwinds for stocks. You agree with that? - So that's where markets are reacting at this point. But I think the bigger reason is why they're going there. If it's because of deficit concerns and inflation concerns, not because the economy is growing so much, that's the issue. And I think that's what you saw last week. - Yeah, what do you think about that? Five, 10 year above five or at five, then stocks really pay attention. - There's no-- - Enter angry about that. - The answer to this question is always someone to morph us because there is no, I've done the math and it's this number. Economies change, growth rates change, population, labor force, et cetera. There's a reason why yields trade where they do. I don't know that 5% is the magic line in the sand. I'm sure Wolf did some great work behind it. The Fed funds rate, the thought is that it might go up and obviously that's part of what's going on at the long run. There's some thought that maybe inflation's going to reaccelerate. I disagree with that. But if the economy is doing well as Courtney alluded to, then the bias for yields is at least flat if not higher. And again, look no further than the broader stock market, which is still doing fine, credit spreads, which are still incredibly tight, even tighter I can make the argument. And the economy is growing in the 1.5 to 2.5% range, which these days, real GDP is normal. OK, over the last month, Nasdaq's winning against all the majors, up 4 and a quarter percent. Is this the week where we say tech undoubtedly is going to lead us between let's say the end of this week and into the end of the year because of what Nvidia and Marvel are going to tell us? I think they can, but I think other stocks will too. So I told you I brought a list because I was looking today at earnings in general because 88% of the S&P 500 have actually beaten expectations by 7% on a median range. You look at Starbucks, Shark Ninja, Target, Estee Lauder, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, United, Healthcare, and Delta. I just picked a few. They have grown earnings anywhere from 20% to 66%. So they're participating. So you don't necessarily have to just lump everything into tech sure you want to own tech. But I think you also want to own a lot of other things. Roastores and BJ. I could have picked a whole bunch. Just picked double vision comps. I just picked a couple of them. All right, what she said, she's just, you know, a few. It was like 12, but it was a few. Yeah, but I wanted to give the viewer some ideas. You made your point. You did. Very well, too. All right, thanks everybody. Thank you. We'll leave it there. We're watching shares of Live Nation this hour as well after a new report surfaced involving the president and the Department of Justice, our Julia Borsten. Has those details? What's this about? Well, Scott, the Wall Street Journal reporting that president, Trump personally intervened and directed the Department of Justice to settle its recent suit against Live Nation, which is parent company of Ticketmaster. Now, the journal report notes that after the president met with Live Nation CEO Michael Rapinoe on February 27th, the settlement was announced on March 2nd, which was about one week into the trial. Now, while the DOJ and some states settled, others continued with the case. A jury in April finding Live Nation liable for operating a monopoly through remaining plaintiffs are asking the judge to break up the company, but remedies have yet to be decided. And Live Nation has signaled that it plans to appeal the case so this could drag on for years. Now, the DOJ telling CNBC in a statement that the article is, quote, "categorically false" and the department stands behind the settlement. Live Nation had no comment. We've also reached out to the White House but have not heard back yet. See Live Nation shares unmoved by this, up about one and a half percent back over the deal. - Green nonetheless. Julia, thanks so much. Julia Borscht and shares of hymns and hers are slumping today. Brandon Gomez joins us now with this story. What's happening here? - Hey, there's Scott. Yeah, shares down 9%. Bloomberg reporting, Visa put the telehealth company on notice over excessive customer disputes tied to its weight loss subscription. Now, according to internal documents, hymns was placed in Visa's acquire monitoring program after a surge in disputes in July. Now, the company faces an $8 surcharge for each dispute, resulting in a roughly $75,000 fee. hymns must now get its dispute rate below 1.5% for three consecutive months to exit the program. Now, hymns spokesperson told me the company has built a checkout process that is clear about the cost of membership and medications and confirmed it has seen a small amount of disputed charges. What's got, this is about more than a small fee, right? The FTC in July launched a broader investigation into hymns billing practices. The timing here clearly spooking some investors out of the stock down about 1.5%. All right, Brandon, thanks for that, Brandon Gomez. We're just getting started here coming up next. The crypto comeback, Bitcoin surging, more than 20% in just one week, with even bigger moves across the crypto complex. We'll talk about what's driving that rally, more importantly, can it last? Miller value partners, Bill Miller, the fourth joins us next. Bitcoin seeing its strongest three-day win since 2023 for more on where it's heading now. Let's welcome in, Bill Miller, the fourth. Welcome back, good to have you back, especially as we have this tremendous rebound. What do you think it's about? - I think crypto's just coming back after summer break, Scott. There's two things behind it really. The AI trade is starting to lose a little bit of its luster as people become concerned around valuation and ROI's that may not be there on this huge amount of cat-backs. So long-dated thinkers are shifting their focus elsewhere and now to crypto. And I think the real reason behind that shift in addition to the concerns around valuation are big liquidity interventions on behalf of governments around the globe to counteract big structural issues. So if you look what happened to the end of July, Japan intervened in conjunction with the US to support the yen. And then last week you had a big announcement where Treasury said they were gonna double their purchases of long-dated fixed income. And if you think about what that represents, it's again, policy makers trying to pretend to big structural imbalances that are building up for a lot of periods of time are not happening. You look at the impetus for Bitcoin, it was the global financial crisis. When policy makers locked arms and said, oh, this crazy structural stuff breaking isn't happening. So again, it's happening again. People are shifting their policies at the margin and extrapolating that and Bitcoin investors are going, okay, where does this end? It probably ends with more intervention. So I think that's what kicked this big liquidation off last week, it was the biggest short liquidation in crypto in the past five years. And the fundamental case is as good as ever Scott. If you look at the budget depths at this year in the United States at 1.8 trillion, the entire market cap of Bitcoin is smaller than the dollars that have to be invented from just this year's behavior alone. So there's a big structural demand here and a big runway I think ahead of us. - I mean, the national debt's been the national debt, right? I mean, getting to 40 trillion dollars may be a nice big new, not nice even, but you know what I'm saying about a nice, bigger round number, but when 30 trillion dollars is still a two big of number and there were times in that stretch that Bitcoin had trouble. So why is Bitcoin and those investors just waking up now to a 40 trillion dollar number? - Well, I think it's the change at the margin potentially of treasury, you know, becoming more active on the monetary policy front. Even though it's gonna be budget neutral, they already have the funds to do it. But I think you have to zoom out Scott and there's a lot of volatility in Bitcoin, but the long-term structural issue remains, which is, yeah, governments as a whole are not all that accountable. There are more accountable ways of keeping track of capital, more transparent ways of thinking about it, and people continue to come around to that view over and over and over again. - I mean, the other thing is when you were sort of describing some of the mechanisms for the bounce, you said a big and you used the word, and I felt like as you said it, you were careful to use that big announcement on buyback action from the treasury. They haven't bought a single bond yet, obviously. But what you're saying is the announcement of action alone was enough to give Bitcoin a boost and the idea that this is only the beginning, that when action is actually, when words are turned into action, and then our reporting today suggesting that, you know, you could use the treasury general account that this is just starting. - Yeah, it's been just starting for a century or so, Scott, in terms of the overall behavior. So we're on the same page. - What about the market itself? I mean, how do you feel about the relationship between rising yields and where the market is currently trading? - You mean the Bitcoin market? - No, the regular stock market. - Oh, okay, so the stock market, I mean, if you go back in history, five percent is not exactly a percolane rate. of interest on capital. So, I mean, 16 or 17, 19 years ago, 30 years, 30-year rates were at this level too. Economy was going really well. So, I don't think that rates at this level are, you know, Gary for the economy moving forward. There's a real demand for capital. There's a real demand for mortgages. And so, if you look at real rates, they're as high as they've been in 20 plus years. That's enormously bullish for the economy. It supports the rotation story and the smaller caps with lower valuation. So, we're still optimistic. Sure, but it's not the 10-year at 5 percent. That's the hang-up potentially. It's the fact that it went from point A to point B, which is 5 percent in a reasonably short period of time. That's the unsettling nature of it, not the absolute level. The fair point, and I think it's important to question what's causing those degree of moves. And some would argue, Bitcoin is especially over, you know, too much government intervention in the pricing of money is behind a lot of the aggressive moves and step function changes. So, it's hard to say exactly, but point taken. Bill, good to have you. See you soon. Thanks for having me, Scott. Yeah, you bet, Bill Miller, the fourth. All right, coming up more on the pullback and yields, where the market does go from here, Barrett Stratigas is Chris Farone joins us at Post 9 next with his take. All right, welcome back. Yields are falling today on a CNBC report. The treasury is prepared to use its general account for more buybacks, where rates could go from here, could have a big impact on how stocks will trade in the weeks ahead, of course. Chris Farone, Chief Market Strategist for Barrett Stratigas joins us back at Post 9. Welcome back. Great to be here. How do you feel about the market given what's at stake this week? I mean, you have to tip your hat to the resiliency of this tape, not just with yield, what they're doing with semis and tech here again. This remains a highly, highly rotational tape. And you've seen health care emerge, I think, as the rotational winner over the last three or four months. And you believe that, for us, you believe that. Yeah, it wasn't. That's been a very vocal call for us this year. It remains such, but also like, look at other parts of the market. Materials breaking out here after a four or five month pause, free port, PHP, leading the charge there. I mean, I am a little bit mindful that maybe some of the industrials are starting to soften here a little bit. We were talking about that earlier with our panel. Is that related to the cyclical trade and to rates? I don't know. I think there's a very split industrial sector emerging. It's not just unique to the U.S. It's true globally as well. It seems to be running parallel or coincident with this weakening the utility. So you wonder if there's this overhanging into the midterms with the data center build out. You think that's an issue? I want you to tell me more about that, because I'm now I'm asking everybody about it who comes on and talks about those types of stocks that have had weakness of late as this issue has grown louder. Yeah. The polls are really going one way and you have to imagine as you just said, as you had even closer to the midterms, it's going to get mega phonish. Well, I think it's important. These are corrections and uptrends for a lot of these names, whether it's caterpillar or Cummins or Quanta. They're still in good long term uptrends. If you're going to follow the typical midterm pattern, they should bottom ahead of November. And we'd look for that to kind of lean into some of the strength here. And I think additionally to that, when you look globally, banks still act great throughout all this as well. So I can't think of many times in my career sky where global banks are making new highs across the board and you're on the verge of a big problem. And that's with rates at 470. What do you think is legitimately at stake this week for the rally? Given you're going to get in video Wednesday and then share worse on Friday. I have to imagine and we said this all all day and we're going to say it probably every day. Both of these are going to be market moving events. Yeah, how could they not be? I mean, I think when you let's start with in video first, I think when you look at the video, we're going to get clues whether there's any re-exceleration to the hyper-scaler trade here. I mean, in video has been dead money for the better part of the last year here. It is still in an uptrend. I want to give it the benefit of the doubt here. We've certainly have seen life come back to Amazon over recent months. This is a very important point for some of those. What I'm less thrilled about is how these semis bounced right to the 50 day and I failed pretty spectacularly over the last couple days. I think at best, those are dead money kind of into this October November. Really? Is that rate related? I don't know because when you look at the rate environment, you know, we're here 470, it feels like a high number. It's actually one of the narrowest ranges and 10-year yields that we've seen not just in one year but two years and three years. So we're in a very narrow range. I know there's so much hyperbole on, oh, ban you'll be getting away from us here. The velocity of the move is actually relatively contained. It's not a state of center related though, right? Is there a chance that what we've seen with not only in videos down six days in a row? I think going on seven. As you say, the semis haven't traded. Is that data-centered debate driven? You know, I would be more worried about it if that move out of the semis was moved out of the asset class of equity, but that's just not what has happened here. As they've sold the semis the last four or five days, we're back to the highest percent of stock to the S&P above their 200-day all year, 75 percent. This is a market still with pretty good trends, maybe not the momentum profile that drives us to new highs immediately here, but I still think we're a relatively good condition to be a buyer of oversold conditions we get into the fall here. And just on rates for a moment, I think the I think the big miscalculation all year for a lot of people is picking a number on yields and certainly that's the level where trouble comes. I think the level where trouble comes is not a level. It's when the leadership shifts very defensively, and we just haven't really seen that to any big degree here. When the market is telling you higher yields are no longer supportive of the cyclical trade, but it's defensive, taking hold. That's when I think your alarm has to go up. Staples and utilities are the two leadership groups today, so. I'm not going to say one day means anything, but utilities are a day removed from 52-week relative loads, so let's not take one day there. I think on balance, money does not want to leave the asset class of equity. It's 470-10-year yields, it's not the level to go. Why would you when earnings are doing what they're doing? Good to see it. We'll talk to you. Thank you, Christ for owning up next. We're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. We're 10 from the bell back to Kristina now for the stocks that she's watching. What do you see? Next idea, because this company is the Yes and Peace top performer right now, hitting a new 52-week high on Friday, Evercourt lifted its price target on the stock to $430 from $375. You can see it's trading only at $339 now, so travel stock peers also hire today, including tribute visor, Airbnb, so the flow from Friday moving into today. Shares of Canada Goose, unfortunately dropping on a double downgrade from Wells Fargo, analysts say President Trump's new Canada tariffs now represent a bigger headwind to full-year margins, and the super El Nino weather event also could hurt the brand's key outerwear season with record warm temperatures expected, so shares down to almost 6%. And then Shares of Rum Group, which hosts President Trump's truth social platform, are gaining up to the company's $13.7 billion deal to supply an unnamed cloud company with AI chips. Rum Group said it currently lacks the funding to build out its own GPU infrastructure and plans to raise the money through debt or equity. Shares of 2%. Christina, thanks so much, Christina Parts and Navi-Los, so break, get in the market zone, this next. Arbor now in the closing bell market zone, Mike Santoli and Wilmington Trust, Megan Shoe are here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day, plus all of a renext standing by live from the CBO global markets in Chicago, get to him in a moment, Michael, start us off today. Yeah, I mean, market is kind of jogging in place, trying to sort of stay out of the way until some of the big cards get turned over later this week's got. You have almost exactly a 50-50 up-down day in terms of New York Stock Exchange volume and issues, another time when semis down to 3% and the rest of the market manages to kind of fill the void. You know, I do think it's notable, I know Verone was just mentioning something about this, semis had this big 20% rally off the low at the end of July, they've given back 60% of it, so it does confirm that idea, maybe there was unfinished business in the momentum unwind trade, and then some slippage and other parts of the market that have done the outperformance, but so far really to no net damaging effects, still watching that area just above 7600 on the S&P, which really is the sort of breakout level we've stayed above it twice now in the last few trading days. All right, well that semis factor then factors in heavily on what Nvidia does Wednesday, so we'll see, and we'll see you, Mike, in less than four minutes and over time. Thank you, Mike Santoli. Let's go to the CBO in Chicago, what kind of options action are we playing today? Possibly a ray of hope for tech bulls Scott in options trading on semiconductor provider microchip, which dropped almost 3% today and is down about 30% from highs, but options volume was 25 times the 30 day average today, thanks to a very deep pocket trader who doubled down on a bullish bet. The person first closed out in existing $150 million worth of in the money 65 strike calls expiring in December, and then purchased almost 90 million of the 72 and a half strike calls expiring in October. It was a fairly sophisticated options trade that didn't change the person's overall directional exposure, but did give them the opportunity to make more money faster if the stock pops, and they needed to pop about 9% and 8 weeks ago. All right, good stuff. Oliver, thanks Oliver Renek. All right, Megan Chiu, what do you think is at stake this week? Yeah, it's a big week. We've got obviously, as you've pointed out, a very important earnings report, also some economic data, some Fed speak. So we are expecting the normal volatility, which is how I would characterize what we're seeing. To continue, it's late August seasonality and low liquidity suggests that we could have bigger updates. and bigger down days. So I'm not deterred by this. I think the overall economic picture remains pretty solid, not too hot, not too cold. The PMI's from last week were, were very constructive, and we just don't see broad-based inflation taking hold. And we do still think that the Fed is more likely to cut than to hike from here. I think the rates picture is the biggest risk right now. Overall, I think we've got disinflation, which is helpful, but the rates story is just from the U.S. It's global. So there's definitely some momentum there, but overall, I think the earnings picture is constructive. That has us very optimistic, and we are overweight to equities and client portfolios. You are overweight equities. You're, you're, you suggest to stay overweight with a focus on large and small caps. Small caps. So, okay, that, what, when you said you expect the Fed to cut, I was like, okay, that's probably why she's picking small caps. But right in the here and now if rates are elevated, isn't that a problem? It is. Yeah, and I do think a lot of the bad news is priced in on the rates picture. If you think about where it's coming from, it's not really being driven by inflation. There's a number of other factors, whether it's AI-related debt or U.S. funding pressures, as well as just general uncertainty around the Fed and the Treasury policy. So I think the, the balance of risks is probably more to the downside for rates from here. And that would be constructive. But even if the Fed cuts, if the long end stays elevated, you're absolutely right. That's continued pressure on parts of the economy, as well as small caps. So we really do need to see that long end move lower as well. All right, Megan, we'll talk to you soon. Thanks for being with us. It's making sure we're counting down to the finish today. It's like the Dow is going to hang on to its green territory, but the other parts of the market today are going to go out in the red. Again, this is going to be a really critical week. Ramps up to Wednesday, the first stop, and then we finished on Friday with chair George, and his highly anticipated speech. And who knows what happens with interest rates between here and next? I'll see you tomorrow. I'm going to overcome it once and twice.