Closing Bell: 8/21/26

Welcome to Closing Bell. I'm Scott Walker, Life from Post-Nine here at the New York Stock Exchange. This make-and-break hour begins with a market in need of some answers on interest rates and the AI trade end. It's going to get both in the week ahead. We're going to ask our panel today what to expect in just a moment. First, the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation looks like this pretty nice day. We are green as you see across the board. The Dow is leading the way, but it's pretty decent all the way around even as yields move higher. So, we're watching all that. Feels like the market's waiting a bit now on FedShare Powell to speak injection whole one week from today and for Nvidia to report its earnings next Wednesday. Both obviously key stories. Let's get right to our talk of the tape on that note. The road ahead for your money. Jeremy Siegel is Wharton Professor of Finance, Wisdom Trees, Chief Economist. He is right there. Welcome back. Good to see you Scott. Two. All right, your observations on what's been an interesting week given the intervention in the bond market yields going back up. Stocks today are up as we look ahead to what's critical next week. How do you think about things? Well, first of all, I don't know, you know, how good a dancer Scott Besson is, but I don't, I am not fond of the Besson's twist. I mean, it seems to just totally run counter to what Kevin Worsh wants to do, which is, you know, let's let the market determine those rates so we can get the signals out to determine how we're going to pursue monetary policy. You know, you used to be weekly meetings between, you know, treasury and the Fed. You know, we have not heard how, you know, Kevin responds to this, but clearly going in and changing the composition of the debt is changing those road of yield and making it harder to read those, those signals. And that all makes, as you said, what Kevin is going to say later next week, even more important than ever. I mean, you can't have rates though become untethered. And I think there was a feeling among some that at the long end, that was in the process of happening. Well, don't over, I mean, the 30 year did peak above the high, you know, once it hit over 5% and hit the headlines. Remember, the 10 year did not get the high of where it was six months ago. It's been bouncing off that 475. I would not call it untethered. I wouldn't call it an unruly untethered market. It's a market that says there's a lot of price pressures, there's a lot of government spending pressures. And some day down the road, maybe not so far, we're going to have to address some of those fiscal problems. And, you know, the signal, you know, it's the famous Yardini Biden vigilantes, they're going to be the one to tell you, but not at 475. Higher than that, but, you know, it's it's a warning. You think it was as much political as anything else, just the need to try and get yields under control a couple months out from the midterms? Yeah, a couple months out from the midterms. You know, I just don't think, for instance, talking about what Kevin can do, you know, very honestly politically, I don't see how he can move either at the September meeting or the late October meeting. By the way, that that October meeting is six days before the midterms. So, you know, I can't see him raising rates six days before the midterms, even if the market says, hey, maybe you should. So maybe the reckoning is going to be December or after late November, when, you know, Kevin said, all right, that's, you know, behind us, now we may have to raise rates, you know, if these pressures continue in the market. What's this about, do you think, with rates? I think most people at this point suggest it's the paper that's coming on the market from the AI build out, and it's such a tremendous surge of it that it's forcing rates at the long end up. You could pile a couple of other reasons or excuses on top of that, but that doesn't sound to me, like something the Treasury can do all that much about. Exactly. And they really can't. And really, they shouldn't. They should let the market speak, and they should listen. Yes, the AI debt is one of the factors. The, you know, the persistent inflation is another, you know, during, you know, during that time when, you know, oil is now moved up into the mid-80s, and you know, we just don't know, you know, what's going to happen over the next two months. There's a lot of scenarios where it could go above 100 again. So plus the expenses on the war and the deficit, you know, there's, you know, there's no absence of factors for why there is pressure on that 10 year and the 30 year. And, you know, my feeling is, let the market speak and, hey, let the, let the government listen. So the S&P, as I ask you these questions, is one and three quarters percent off of its high, purely, right? And that speaks to the fact that the numbers that the markets most concerned about are related to earnings. And those are extraordinary. And that's why we're able to look past rising oil and rising yields to some degree, and maybe to a large degree. So should that continue? Well, I mean, you know, the earnings jump was extraordinary this year, and we're predicting strong earnings going into future. We will, you know, we'll see if that holds. Can we still get this sort of surprises on the high side? So, yeah, we got these higher expectations in there, but don't forget stocks that are earnings over that interest rate. So, you're absolutely right, that the earnings have been going up. The interest rates have been going up, but, you know, the earnings have been keeping up to keep it there. But now, if those earnings high expectations, even not fall, but don't continue to rise while the interest rate rises, that's going to give a little, you know, that's going to give some capitalization problems for the market. I don't see that near term, because I don't see, you know, wars being really able to start raising those short rates, you know, before after the midterms come. So, hey, liquidity is being fit in. Earnings are good. GDP looks good. You know, this quarter productivity is higher. That's another, by the way, good factor because it's high yields. So the market could continue to run, but those other factors that, you know, applaud you to say, you know, all right, but there are fiscal problems that we eventually have to address. So, you're saying it's harder to justify the multiple in an environment where interest rates continue to rise. I think that's what you're suggesting. So, I mean, certainly, I mean, I'm not saying four or three quarters. I mean, my feeling is, yes, the 30 year rose above five. If the 10 year rises above five, that, which is read the true benchmark, that's going to really, you know, catch eyes and cause a lot of buzz and people are really going to say, all right. So, you know, what do we have here? What do you think about Nvidia next week? Because aside from the chair speaking, this is the landmark event of next week. Maybe as much for Nvidia itself, but perhaps more so for all of the companies that are reliant on whatever Jensen Wong has to say about the road ahead for the whole AI build out itself. Right. Now, let me ask you, Scott, have you ever heard Jensen Wong be pessimistic and downbeat? I don't. And he's been justified. I guess he's been right. So, wow, I mean, if he gives anything that's downbeat, that's a sea change. So, I think the market is expecting, hey, unlimited demands, all, you know, Nvidia is good. Don't forget earnings are, you know, these are, you know, second quarter earnings are already two thirds of the way through the third quarter. You know, that's, you know, when we talked about Walmart, you know, not doing well with, you know, that was the month of April, May and June. So, you know, it's a forward looking. Would he ever, I've never heard him falter in his enthusiasm for AI. So, let's, if he doesn't, that will be power for the course. If he does, that will be a headline that I don't think long investors will want to see. No, no, I would tend to agree with that comment. Professor Stick with me, I'm going to welcome some others into our conversation. Bunstratz Tom Lee is here today and so is requisite capitals, Bryn Talkington. And we're happy to say both are CNBC contributors. Bryn Welcome, Tom. Good to have you here on set. What do you make of what the professor has to say here? I mean, I think Jeremy's pointing out some important things, but to me, I actually think the treasury by, by back was a wise thing to do. I don't, I don't think it's any different than a company saying, hey, look, there's some things that are getting investors nervous about my stock, but it's things that are not related to my company. And I think that's what the treasury signal was. And so I don't think It's manipulation, it's really an indication of value and I think just trying to put some signal out from the noise. What if it doesn't work? Well if it doesn't work they have more dollars to put to work. So I do think the Treasury Department does have a lot of resources available. So I assume it's going to work. So you assume that yields are going to start going lower again? I think that we need to just have some ballast until we get some clearance or signal from what oil is going to do and the direction of CPI and things that are giving the market a little hesitation. And of course Jackson Hole is this week or this coming week and I think that could provide some clarity and all that could quell whatever risk premium is being built into yields. Bren, how do you see it? Well I think a lot of the narrative this week has been, well Kevin Warsch is in a little bit of a pickle because he's been saying, well let the stock let the bond market tell us what's happening and then at the same time as a juxtaposition, Secretary Besson is buying treasuries. But when you actually peel that back, the 30 year first of all, the 20 and 30 year are very illiquid, it's about a $6 trillion total market if you look at long duration bonds, no one signals off the 20 and 30 year. It's really the 10 year, the 5 year, the 2 year and they're not buying that. So I do think Fed Chairman Warsch actually has the ability to thread the needle to say, first of all these purchases by the treasury are tiny relative to the aggregate amount. It's more of a signal that the treasury says we'll come in and buy these longer duration yields because the reality is the 10 year and that shorter duration is really what everything is set off of. And so I think that the market though, the stock market will be range bound this week because as both the professor and Tom said, the meeting at Jackson Hole which he speaks on Friday, I think that's really going to be the seminal moment where we understand what is he actually thinking or what's he going to tell us about what he's thinking since he already says. He's going to be a man of few words as Fed Chairman. Tom, do we think that next week is the most consequential for the direction of stocks in the next few months? You know, you're not going to hear from Nvidia again for a while after next Wednesday. And then I don't think people really think that anything from the Fed's going to happen in September or even October until you get to the midterms. That feels to me like it makes next week even more consequential for stocks. I'd agree. I think it's what I'd consider a clearing event because let's take the AI story. There's been concerns about data centers and political opposition and it's caused the trade to stall. I think Johnson Wong's going to re-inject a lot of confidence that look, there's still this relentless demand story and it's going to be taking place regardless. And similarly on the Fed, I do think the uncertainty builds between Worsh's appearances. And so I think this is another chance to course calibrate. You raise an interesting point. So you think what certainly appears to be growing opposition to data centers is having an impact on that trade in the stock market. It is because if data centers can't be built, then the entire bottleneck trade doesn't look as durable. So I think that what we saw in Ohio and in Florida and Texas and Pennsylvania, which is now governors putting potential moratoriums or even voters saying it's a political issue, is causing investors to pause. What if that doesn't change? I mean, I'm literally looking at one of the most recent polls right in front of me that I happened to see earlier today. And the support is decreasing across all political parties. Yeah. I think that it tells us that the AI industry, especially the labs, have to start messaging that it's not Doomsday. I think it's a very something that this political issue could become a problem. But that's also why the downstream AI stocks are starting to work. The software this week did well. Even the biotechs and then the cryptos because they're all downstream stocks to the AI story. How about that, Brynn? This correlation between the lack of support and decreasing support for data centers and problems in what has been an incredible trade this year. I think we're all thinking about the same kinds of names when I bring this issue up. The microns and everything else. Well, if you think about what goes in a data center, it doesn't all go in at once. So I think memory can be more affected or will be more affected than certain hardware. But I think that what happened in Texas actually where obviously I am is a really big deal that for my understanding, I get what Governor Abbott's doing. It makes a ton of sense. But now that no one's getting through on the permitting for the most part. And so I do think that we're already seeing this log jam. Like 60% of capacity that was supposed to come online in 2027 Scott has not even started to be built. And so I do think this is not a narrative. It's not a story. It's happening. And I think going into the midterms, you know, I think the Republicans are really concerned that Ohio is going to flip. And that's another data center country and data center state. And so I think this is really important that investors really need to take a close look at this. It's not going to stop it. But I think it will definitely, we could have some downsides as we're trying to figure out. Well, then where do you do with all this stuff that's not being able to be built yet? Is it going to get built? Where is it going to get built? So I think the market is discounting it right now. And I think that's probably not a wise idea. Professor, is this an existential issue that stock investors aren't taking seriously enough? Yeah, I mean, you know, it reminds me of 10 years ago about the whole fracking debate. Remember the states, you know, shut it down and all that. Those states that allowed it, boy, they, they, they gained energy independence. And it saves, it saved us now. I mean, we doubled oil production. And if without what is going on in the Middle East, have we not had that energy, we would be in a, in really severe state. So, I mean, the case has to be made that, you know, data centers are going to be net positive. And there's a lot of misinformation, just like with fracking misinformation, on these data centers. But remember, the Texas is number one. If Abbott, you know, says, you know, we have to look at things. I think Pennsylvania, my state is number three. Shapiro, who was once a big supporter of it, has pulled it on. I think they're reading some of the polls. And the midterms are coming up. As politicians are tend to do. But if there's, if you think, do you think there's significant market risk that's being underappreciated right now around this issue? Well, I think there's enough money to solve a lot of these problems. Actually, I mean, a lot of the problems on water, they don't understand that a lot of it has now been solved. The question of not providing your own electricity. Some of them are doing that and paying for upgrading the grid. I mean, the amount of money that is available to humiliate all these problems has, we just have never seen it before. So, hey, listen, progress is a trade-off, economics is a trade-off. There's nothing that is unambiguously good in all aspects. You just have to weigh all the positives with all the other factors. You still think, Tom, over the next 10 days, you can get a pretty nice market rally, don't you? Yeah, I think so. I think we're going to make new highs towards $7,908,000 on the S&P 500. But part of it, as you said, I think next week is a clearing event in a positive way, because it's introducing some visibility and two topics that are a little uncertain. And, Brent, this market, if nothing else has been able to deal with these clearing events pretty orderly. Let's say, from situational awareness to all of these other issues that we've had along the way in this bull market, it's a resilient market that has found various ways to deal with whatever's been thrown at it. Most recently, the upset in that hedge fund, what it did to the momentum trade, and how, as I said, we've worked our way back to not that far from new highs yet again. I think just like America is resilient, the economy is resilient. What we haven't had a recession in 15 years is that the market is resilient. And so I think earnings are still there. I do think there will be air pockets around these data centers, by the way. I do think that's going to cause some air pockets. But ultimately, this is coming. We want this to be here with AI. But I do think there will be air pockets, but I think the market's telling you, you need to be in it. Don't get shaken out. Do not get shaken out. Stay in it. Because this is an exciting time for both the market and the economy. All right. Believe it there. Brent, thanks. Professor always thanks to you as well. His Friday tradition of ours, which I like so much, and Tom, thanks for being here as well. Broadcom, the latest tech giant heading to the debt market, speaking of the finance. It's AI boom. Christina Parts and Evalos is following that for us. What do we know here? Well, Broadcom wants to sell billions in AI chips. The problem is, its customers can't always pay up front, so it's helping finance the purchases. And essentially keeping the debt off its own books. CNBC has learned Broadcom has in talks to raise more than 60 billion, maybe even 70 billion for a new AI chip deal, a package that could hit $100 billion first reported by Bloomberg. It would benefit anthropic and of course others. And could resemble XPV, which is really just a financing platform. Broadcom set up in June with Apollo and Blackstone. A separate entity. What it does is it raises the money, so an SPV, a special purpose vehicle, and then leases the chips to customers. Broadcom's role is that it co-signs a lot of it. If a customer can't pay, Broadcom covers the gap. and so what we're hearing so far is it's at the senior level, the senior debt level. CEO, Hawk 10, rejects the word backstop, though. I was just going through the previous earnings transcriptions and saying that's not the case. But Bank of America says that exposure could reach $370 billion by 2029. Broadcom, of course, isn't alone. We talked about in video having a similar platform targeting $500 billion, but only backstopped up to 25% of each deal. So a little bit further away from the problem. Meta has done a version of this too, raising roughly $27 billion for a data center. It now leases back this happened last year. It all works, while AI demand outruns supply. The risk is what you guys just talked about, Scott, if it doesn't. Christina, thanks. See you in a bit. Christina parts and up a dose. Palantir, a big winner in the S&P today, hitting its highest level since January. Seema Modi is following that. Tells us what's behind this move. Hi, Hey, Scott. Well, the stock has been on a tear than the rally in Palantir ignited in early August following blockbuster earnings, CEO Alex Carp, telling CNBC exclusively at that time, he sees the company's 150% growth rate as sustainable over the next 18 months. Carp continues to beat the drum on data sovereignty at a bootcamp with customers in New York Wednesday, urging them not to hand over their data to the Frontier Labs. And if they do, they risk getting cannibalized. Frontier Labs seem to be listening. Open AI saying it will promise not to retain data from businesses. So perhaps Carp's message is resonating, Scott. We're looking at shares now at 46% already in August. It's best month since November of 2024. And now positive on the year, Wall Street continues to warm up to the name. Truist analysts recently saying Palantir continues to benefit from this pivot to open-weight models with its application layer, it sells to clients. 2/3 of analysts right now have a buy rating. And the average price target at $200 a share with stock up higher today, Scott. OK, Seema, thank you. That's Seema Modi. Let's send it now to Pipistivaans for a look at some of the other big names that are moving into this Friday close. OK, Scott, it's a retail roundup with more reads on the consumer. So let's start here with raw stores in the green after an earnings beat with the company also raising full-year guidance. Same store sales coming in ahead of estimates with raw stores pointing to higher traffic. Adding they saw new shoppers across a range of incomes while existing customers spend more. Moving over to BJ's wholesale because they raised their full-year forecast. And they also pointed to shoppers seeking out value. Higher income households driving the beat with grocery, consumer electronics, and home goods, the top categories. BJ's member count reached a record eight and a half million. And membership fee income helped lift overall revenue. Those shares up 3%. Finally, shares of Boston beer falling after the company said at CFO will be leaving the company next month to become CFO at the ingredient maker in Gredion. Boston beer appointed its longtime chief accounting officer as interim CFO while it searches for replacement. Those shares down 3%. Scott? All right, Pip, thank you. Pip is Stevens. We're just getting started here on the bill. Up next, Ben nothing but net, net gains for NBA owners. In the wake of the record, pending sale of the Los Angeles Lakers, our own micosanian following the money on the big reset now for team valuations. We're live at the New York Stock Exchange. You're watching Closing Bell on CNBC. Welcome back to Closing Bell, the pending sale of the Los Angeles Lakers for $12.5 billion, having a dramatic impact on the valuations of NBA franchises. CNBC Sports Reporter, Senior Sports Reporter, Michael Ozanian joins us now. Hi there. Hey, Scott, great to be with you. We updated our valuations. As you said, based on the pending sale of the Lakers for $12.5 billion, we looked at things like multiples relative to revenue, sale prices, markets, all of that into our formula. And what we've come up with is the average team value is now just shy of $7 billion, up 21% from when we published our NBA valuations in November. The top team is still the Golden State Warriors, but we now peg them at $13 billion. One of the big winners on the list, as you probably guessed, are the New York Knicks, up 26% to evaluation of $12.7 billion. Wow. You know, what an amazing exercise this is. And we've alluded to this already. And remind me, when did your list come out for the NBA? February. OK. So here we are. We haven't finished the year. And we're already taking some team valuations from below 11 up to 13. That's pretty extraordinary, don't you think? And you've been doing this for so long. Have you ever seen anything like this? No, because when you and I were talking NBA in February, we were like, wow, $10 billion for the Lakers. That's like 17 times revenue. This is a crazy value to revenue multiple. And here we are now looking at $12.5. That's a multiple of about 20, based on the 2025-2060s in revenues. So no, never seen anything like it. Not just in terms of value, Scott, but also at the pace at which these teams are being sold. I mean, Walter had this team for like a year, and it was sold. So that may be a one-off, probably, in terms of speed. But there was some news on the Timberwolves today with Mark Stadd becoming the control owner, taking over from Laurie. So I don't know. It seems like the appetite for these teams is getting some of these owners to say, you know what? It's a great time to cash out. And the people buying in with long-term time horizons are saying, you know, I have full confidence, particularly with the NBA and the NFL, that valuations are going to continue to accelerate. I'm also thinking about-- and maybe this is a stupid question and forgive me if it is. So you've got the Knicks, as you just mentioned, up 26% just from February. They just win the championship. The delta and the performance between the Knicks and the Rangers, per se, both from a valuations growth standpoint and a performance on the field or ice standpoint. Does that impact at all plans? Do you think from MSG to spin the Knicks and the Rangers into their own combined, yet separate company? Well, if that's a stupid question, then I'm stupid, because that's the question I've been asking sports bankers and analysts that follow the publicly-traded stock continuously. And not really what they basically say is-- and part of this, you can get from the 10K on MSG sports, and the media rights agreements, and so forth-- is, if you look at the valuation of the combined entity, it's probably 65% Knicks, 35% Rangers. Spinning them off will allow you to aggregate more value to both of them separately. And you're going to get a lot of that cross-company expenses and the way the accounting is in a public filing when the combined entity. That's going to be gone, and the valuations will be much clear. By the way, when news of the Laker sale hit, analysts were immediately upping their stock prices on MSG sports. Oh, interesting. All right, we'll continue to follow it. It is extraordinary. And as you said, it's hard to keep up. There are so many things happening in this business. You mentioned the moves within the T-wolves today, which is almost an aside, given some of the other news we've had, but no less significant in the personalities we're talking about as well. Yeah, and look, Matt Ishvi is buying out his limited partners and a deal that's in the works right now. He and his family are going to buy them out and own like 99% of the sons. So he's putting his money, you know, more money that family is into the team. So they're bullish too. Yeah, yeah, seems everybody is. Mike good stuff as always. I appreciate the conversation. Thank you, Michael Zany, and up next. He's got the highest S&P 500 price target that we've seen. And now he's doubling down on his bullish outlook. Ed Yardeni, he's here, right there, next. We're back on the ballot. Big week ahead, as you know, in video reporting, the Fed chair speaking and here to break down his expectations for markets is Ed Yardeni. He's the president of Yardeni, research. Welcome back. Thank you, Scott. So we'll get to your view on stocks in a minute, but you're the one who coined the bond vigilantes in the first place. Back in 1983, when by the way, the bond vigilantes were concerned about $250 billion in annual deficits. Are they at work here? I think they are. I mean, they're definitely at work in Japan and the United Kingdom. And I think they're starting to stir here in the United States. But look, I think I'm not that concerned yet. I think the 10 year bond deal is actually back to normal. 45% to me is an indication of an economy that's doing quite well. OK, so not yet. What does concern you about what point? I think everybody's got that 5% mark. But you know, we didn't do the same thing back in 2023. In 2023, we went from 4% to 5% in three months, August, September, October. November 1st, they got to 5%, and it got snapped up like a man. So there's going to be a yield year, which it's going to be compelling to buy. I think it's pretty good right here, but I can't rule out 5%. But you know, one divide of our five is 20. That's a pretty good rule of thumb going back many years to something called the Fed stock valuation model that suggests that the fair value for the multiple for the S&B 500 is where we are at 20. So I don't think a 5% bond yield is going to bring the body. but the multiple down for the stock market. - Interesting. And you must be as, are you still as bullish as you have been? I mean, 80, 80, 80, 80, 80, 80 by year in. - Yeah, and what gets us there, do you think? - Earnings, you know, you've said it yourself many times and I call it Fimo. - You do. - Earnings momentum, right? - Fabulous, earnings momentum. It's been just really extraordinary. And look right now, the analysts are looking for $408 per share for the S&P 500 next year. - I think by the end of the year they'll be up to $415, $415, thanks 20.24 gets you to $8400. So in other words, the multiple just stays here. Earnings will get us there. - How consequential do you think next week is then on both fronts? Earnings and video, rates, or sh. - I'm kind of jaded about all these things. I really think that we all have in the market certainly as AI fatigue. And so I don't know if it's going to be a big deal. I mean, everybody's expecting something that'll move the market. But it may be a non-event within video. Same thing with Kevin Worsh. He's kind of locked himself in to, there's a task force for that. And his task forces don't report to him until the end of the year. I think it's going to be a really short speech. - You do? - Yeah. - I mean, what can you say? - Well, some say he needs to say a lot more than he's been saying. - Well, maybe not in words, but substance. - You and I think that, but do you think that? - Yeah, I do think, I think it would have been a good thing to just stick with the regime until the task forces. In other words, just only to leave us hanging all of a sudden with nothing. That's what we have right now. But look, on the other hand, other federal officials, they're talking. They're telling us what's on their minds. And I think there's still a chance that the Fed will in fact raise the Fed front-to-back order in September. - Do you really think that? I mean, really deep in your core, you believe that? - Well, again, you brought up Kevin Worsh. Kevin Worsh made it very clear that he wants price stability. And he made it very clear that he knows that the Fed has missed its target for the past five years. He said that a couple of times. And he certainly seemed to put his credibility on the line here. I think it's one of the reasons that the millennials have gone up is because the uncertainty of where he's going to take Fed and the Fed policy. - There's a cost associated with that uncertainty. Like C. Reesman had been saying. - Yeah, I agree with Steve with that. - The momentum trade. How critical do you think it is to get to where you think we can go? - Well, I've actually been betting on the impressive 493 as opposed to the magnificent seven. The magnificent seven have done not too well this year. They've actually underperformed the 493. And I think that'll continue to be the case through the end of the year. I think increasingly investors are going to turn to some areas. AI is just too confusing for a lot of people. We know it's a big deal. We just don't know who's going to generate the most profitability on that. So I think people are turning to financials, to healthcare, materials, industrials. I think those are the overweights that are likely to be benefiting from AI. - You think before I let you go, you think there's risk of the tech trade or certainly parts of it tracking along with people's feelings on data centers in their backyards. - It seems like we're very confused with what we want. We get very upset when they're building too many data centers. And now they're talking about maybe slowing it down. That might actually be a good thing. I mean, maybe we should slow down the rate of which, let's see how this works over time. Instead of just pushing this whole thing through, I think it's one other reason as the bond isn't going up. It's because as you mentioned in your previous segment, there's just a humongous amount of bonds being issued by these AI data centers companies. So I have no problems with slowing it down. - Okay, we'll talk to you soon. - Thank you. - Good weekend to you, as always, Ed Yardeni. Coming up next, we track the biggest movers as we head into the close. - We're about 10 from the bell. Let's get back to Christina Parts and Eveless now for a look at the key stocks that she's watching. What do you see? - Tesla shares. They're gaining, as it said, it will launch an all-electric semi-truck in Europe at the IAA Transportation Truck Show in Germany just next month. Earlier this week, the information also reported that Tesla is preparing for an August launch for its cybercab. And that's why you're seeing shares up almost 6% this week or over the last two days, we should say. Moderna shares gaining momentum again. But dramatically earlier down, so after this is after they jumped, what, 176% on Wednesday when its joint cancer vaccine with Merck delivered positive results in a late-stage trial, the stock pulled back yesterday, 23% still up, what, 120% since before the results. You can see shares up 10% now. And Cleveland Cliffs shares are up after the steelmaker said, it's going to spend $1 billion to modernize its flagship plant in Ohio with half of that funding coming from the Department of Energy. The project is expected to employ more than 1,500 workers and be completed by 2030. Call it out, steal a video. Thank you very much. That's Christina Fartz-Enemoulos coming up next. What the options markets are signaling about in video earnings next week. That and the big week for crypto will do it. It's time to market some next. We're now in the closing belt market zone, Mike Santoli and PNC's Young Yuma. They're here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus, all of America is looking ahead to Nvidia live from the Cebo global markets in Chicago to name a deal with more on that Bitcoin. Break out, Michael. I'll begin with you on what we saw this week and what we think might happen next. Yeah, the market, doing a decent job, I think, of sort of staying within the lines, given the fact that it got challenged on multiple fronts. You had that renewed weakness in broad semis. And obviously, what's going on with rates? How to interpret the Y and what it's going to mean? I do think the S&P 500, we pull back to a super logical spot, 7600. Everyone was looking at that being the top of the former multi-month range. So far, we bounced off of it. Not sure that it's a real high conviction move here today, going higher even as treasury yields climb a little bit, but give it credit for, I think, losing a little bit of the sponsorship of some of the strong recent groups like banks and industrials and still managing to limit the losses. What's on the line next week, do you think, Mike? Look, I think it's all about kind of understanding the policy framework, having the fed piece move in to a kind of a company what we've maybe learned from treasury's priorities on the long end. A lot of stuff has to be rationalized, so that's going to tell you, look, as soon as we got the treasury buyback announcement, dollar down, gold sores, Bitcoin sores, yields return higher. So it tells you that investors aren't quite sure to know what to make of the implications, and hopefully we get some of those blanks filled in at Jackson Hole. I know you'll be all over it starting in less than five minutes on overtime, we look forward as always to that. That's Mike Santoli. And speaking of Nvidia's earnings next week, Oliver Renek's at SIBO, with the options action ahead of it. What do you see? Not exactly a lock for bulls at this point, Scott. The stock's had a solid year ahead of the S&P 500, but trailing the chip trade by a lot. The options flows aren't outright bearish. We do see more calls trading than puts today, but more calls were sold versus bought, and the stock fell after six of its last eight earnings reports. Right now, traders are pricing in a five and a half percent move, but the options market routinely overestimates Nvidia's reactions with the stock moving at an average two and a half percent after earnings this past year. On the plus side, the most popular contract by volume that includes earnings is the 220 strike call expiring next Friday, where over half the premium was on the buy side. At $4.75, buying those calls as a bet the stock will rally four and a half percent through next weekend. One other thing, if the stock drops into the low 200s too quickly, and might throw market makers off balance, which would mean traders should be on high alert. - Oh, you're always tackling what we need to know. Oliver, thanks so much, Oliver Renek. That move in crypto today, certainly worth talking about, to name a kill has more. - Yeah, Scott, crypto having one of its biggest weeks in years after Bitcoin rallied on a macro shift, earlier this week, that led to a massive short squeeze, and then we saw this last ditch push from the White House and crypto executives to get the market structure bill known as the Clarity Act across the finish line. Now, that does seem to have changed market perception of regulatory risk, but like I said to you earlier, this week, Scott, the industry chatter isn't lining up exactly with the market on that one. Investors, I talked to you seeing the bill as effectively dead for 2026 after the Senate left for the August recess without a vote. Nevertheless, it clearly drove the second leg of this week's rally, Bitcoin, Coinbase, Circle, and Strategy East. Each posting gains got an excess of 20% for the week, Bitcoin itself heading for its best months since March 2024, Scott. - All right, Tenae, thank you. That's Tenae and McKeele. All right, young Yuma, what do you think is on the line next week? - Well, I think the market's gonna be very focused on what's happening with long-term treasury rates, but I think today's market action is instructive that the market might be chopping as long-term yields rise, but we're not gonna see broad-based equity repricing unless there's a very, very significant rise. I don't think is in the cards for at least months to come here. So I think the market's gonna be focused on the messaging, what the outlook for rates and the Fed is, but I don't think we're gonna see much more than choppin' us and still trying to find its way here. - So you think the risks to stocks overblown at this point then? and the near-trum overblown. in the medium term, I do think the risk is real, but in the near term, I think we're gonna see buyers in the 10-year treasury yield as it approaches 5% probably a plateau, and we don't see widespread equity repricing until we get to maybe five and a half percent on the 10-year yield and we're very far from that here. - Yeah, what about for the momentum trade? I mean, that's more susceptible to volatility probably if yields do remain elevated though. - It is, but I think we just see a lot of rotation. I think we saw some of that today. I don't think the equity market broad-based is going to fall apart, but I do think some of the momentum trade does come off a bit in some sectors that perhaps have been underappreciated in the prior quarters, start to continue to see strengths here. So I think the equity market overall is fine, but yes, that momentum trade is gonna be part of that choppiness until we see more clarity on where rates are gonna plateau. - Feels every time in video reports, it has an obvious level of importance that needs to be addressed. How are you thinking about that as an event itself or a clearing event to just get through it? - Yeah, I think it is something that the market just needs to get through. I think there's going to be some indication of where it sees CapEx trends, but I think we got a good read on that given how late and video reports in the quarter and the sustainability and trajectory of CapEx spending. I think we're breathing a bit of sigh relief, at least for the next quarter that the trends remain quite strong here. - Young you, we'll talk to you soon. Wish you a great weekend. See you back on the bell. That's young you, Bob. All right, they're gonna ring the bell any moment now and it's gonna go out pretty good. Frankly on this Friday, yes, yields, back up. The oil is certainly up-concerned, but stocks trying to look ahead to what may be delivered next week from both the fed share and in video. And I look forward to seeing you then in the overtime. (audience cheering) (upbeat music)