Choosin' Texas with Bobby Pulido

U.S. Voters abroad. Have you got your ballot yet? All states are now sending ballots to overseas voters. So if you want to vote this year, you should request your ballot right away. Go to votefromabroad.org and click "Request My Ballot" as to receive it by email. Questions? Ask our support team directly. Don't miss this chance to shape the future. Don't delay. Votefromabroad.org. (Music) Welcome to Platte State of America. I'm John Fabro. I'm John Lovey. I'm Tommy Vittor. I'm Dan Fiper. We're excited to be here at TripFest. We're going to get into all the big races across the country and here in Texas. Bobby Polito is here. He'll be coming out soon. Before we get to the news, if you guys are free tomorrow and you want to help elect Democrats, we will be doing two events. We'd love to have you out. We're going to be -- from one to three, we'll be joining Votersave America and the Travis County Democrats for a canvas at Pan American Park in East Austin. So come join us. You don't need to sign up. Just show up. All right. Let's start with the number one Texas Long Horns. And you know who's excited for the game tomorrow? Donald Trump. But you know what? He's going to Tennessee. And he has no plans to come back to Texas so far. I don't think he's coming back again before Election Day. He is however planning trips to Alabama and Oklahoma. Yeah, I thought I would get some booze there. But no real competitive races in either of those states. He has no plans to come back here. And Republicans, meanwhile here in Texas, Republicans are spending like the equivalent of a -- the GDP of like a midsize country to try to save Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott and maybe even the Republican majority in the state. Dan, what do you make of this new deep red state tour that Trump is on? Like I did not expect five weeks out or whatever it is from the midterms. Trump to be going to Alabama and Oklahoma. I think we should just begin by saying it's so funny that Trump -- if that a Trump wants to see the Texas Long Horns, he could have come to Texas. But he doesn't want to get booed like Ted Cruz. So I think Trump looks at every problem and sees the solution as more Trump. So we see his party cratering the midterms. He's like, I got to get out there, I got to get out there. And his party is trying to steer him into the least damaging place as possible, which are the quintessential swing states of Alabama and Oklahoma. And even in Alabama, I actually think he could cause them real problems because he's going to the Alabama 2, which is the district that is represented by a Democrat from Ari Figures, which is one of the majority minority districts at the Supreme Court struck down. This is a district that Trump won by 14 points, but 40% of the electorate in that district is black. And we've seen since Post-Clai huge turnout among black voters. So I think there's a very real chance that Trump could actually, in trying to do no harm, could do real harm even in the very, very deeply-red district. That's hope so. Shout out, "Harm." Let's talk about the Senate race here in Texas. You guys heard about it. The Senate Republican Super PAC is now committed to spending another $30 million against James Tellerico in the final weeks. And one Republican source told Punch-Bull today that they think they're going to hit $200 million all in by the time this race is over. And even though Dems, though, are getting outspent everywhere, they, here in Texas, they are taking James Tellerico's small but persistent polling lead. Seriously, and last night, Thursday night, they launched a new Super PAC called Texas Forever. So Cavalry's coming. Love it. Senate Republican PAC spent more than $20 million supporting John Cornen in the primary. Did not work. Do we even think that $200 million can rehabilitate a candidate like Paxton, who most voters here do know extremely well? Well, let's just ask people from Texas that question. How many ads would you have to see to change your mind about Ken Paxton? And is there enough time to run those ads before the heat death of the universe? How much would they have to pay you personally? Right. So, there was a focus group, Kristen Soltz-Soltz-Anderson, around this focus group, Fred of the show. And she had 12, 2024 Trump voters who were either considering Tellerico or undecided. And she asked, what is the first word that comes to mind when you think of either candidate? And they were not totally sold on James Tellerico. But I just, these are the words that they said for Paxton. Cricket, criminal, crook, cricket, bad, immoral, disgusting, corrupt, morally corrupt, and womanizer. You know, they're on the fence. You can do a lot of good with an ad campaign for a new restaurant. It does it work as well when everybody's been there and gotten food poisoning. I mean, I assume all the money is just going to go. It's going to be hard to prop up Paxton, but it's probably just going to be Tellerico attack at. It's the same kind of thing. I saw it speaking to Tellerico. I saw that right here on this stage, Thursday, he challenged Paxton to a debate on Fox News. Yeah. No dice, no takers for that debate from Paxton. Tellerico did call Paxton's choice low T. Tommy, do you think there's any chance that Paxton takes the bait at some point, you know, considering at least Fox News is friendly or territory? And if you were Tellerico, and you're the Tellerico campaign, do you keep pushing this challenge? Like maybe by going on Fox, or is that not the best use? I think for them, there were like a couple of pieces of the strategy. The first was, how do we get through this interview at the Texas Tribune Fest? And there's a couple of ways you can do it. You could come in knowing that there's a bunch of national press here, knowing that they're going to write up some headline about what you say, and you kind of white knuckle it in hope that the headlines are the best version of your response to attacks from Republicans about your record. Or you walk up on stage with a bucket full of blood and you throw a chum in the water. And that's exactly what they did here with this debate thing, saying like, I'm going to debate, can Paxton, and we're going to do it on Fox News? Not that you're all fish or anything. No, the press are fish. And it works beautifully with the National Press Corps. Like that was the headline he got. And they followed up today with this video of Tellerico calling Paxton's number and leaving him a voicemail to invite him. And it was all very clever and I think well executed. I think bigger picture, when your opponent is like his whole message against you is that you're a wimp in your low T, and your rejoinder is like, all right, bitch, debate me on Fox News. Like it's a home game for you. That's a pretty good way to respond. And do I think it'll happen? Probably not. If it does, like I think Tellerico can hold his own. But we should just be like, yeah, think. Well, but at the end of the day, at the end of the day, Fox News is Fox News. And they are an extension of the MAGA Media Machine. And that is true for Brett Baer, who would host the debate. Because we all I think saw pictures of Brett and his lovely wife at the state dinner at the White House two nights ago, right? Like he's very much, you know, people in DC treat some Fox News hosts like they are straight news men and women. When in reality, they're all sort of working for the same master. But I think it was a smart play. I think it's something he'll probably repeat. Tellerico will probably repeat. But I'm not sure it'll be like a focus, or I'm skeptical that it'll happen. It's pretty extraordinary, right? Because Paxton needs the debate. Like he needs the help of a debate. The fact that they are so. That's if. If you. You perform as a debate in a way that resembles a human. Well, if you trust it, right. Well, like if you just. If you believe that Paxton is a little bit behind Tellerico, based on all the polls that we've been seeing over and over again, he's got to do something to change it. And the fact that he's so. He has so little confidence in his ability to win that kind of an argument that even from behind. Usually the winning candidate. The candidate ahead is not the one demanding an opportunity to have a big stage in which they face the opponent. That's what a challenger does. I think he should go on. I think Tellerico should go on like Jesse Watershow and do the challenge there, too. Then you get. The Jesse Waters Challenge. It's all about getting attention. You know what I mean? Like the throwing up the debate idea was a gambit to get attention. It works. Going on Fox News, it'll get you attention. I mean, it's always a debate. The version of the interview you're going to get on Fox News is likely to be combative. And maybe that's a good thing because your supporters like it. Like I watched the debate, the interview of duel, I'll say I did with Jesse Waters. And I kind of winced a bunch of times. And I was like, I don't know about that. But then I went out to Detroit and he did a town hall. And I saw people yelling to the stage, you whooped his ass of duel. You know, so like people liked it. Do you think, tell me the telleriko wants the debate? I think so. I mean, if I have the opportunity. We need to stand physically side-by-side with Ken Paxton and talk about my record. I would do it every day. It's like about mauging. It's like with the governor's race, it wasn't that long ago that national Democrats and media types were saying that Greg Abbott was a lock, not us though. We talked to Gina, you know, it was a long time ago. And now, she's, yeah, we were ahead of the game there, it happens once in a while. Did we see the polls coming? Or did we change the polls? We don't know. Yeah, exactly. So Abbott's running scared now, and one way you can tell is he has completely changed his tune from wanting Texas to be, quote, "epicenter of AI development" a year ago, and now he's imposing data center moratorium, or at least on new permits, now that we're getting close to election day. Love it. What do you make of Abbott's data center pivot, and what do you think the guy who won his race by 11 points last time around is now in such a tight race this time? Yeah, so I think a lot of Republicans have been caught off guard by the backlash to data centers. I can see it being an especially tough issue for someone like Greg Abbott. The latest data is that the request for power for these new data centers in Texas would require five times as much power as is currently peak demand in Texas in a state that I mean, you all will tell me if I'm wrong. Have questions, concerns, lingering doubts about Greg Abbott's ability to manage the electric grid? The other, sure, and the other part of this too is, so it's not just that people really don't like the idea of having a data center in their neighborhood. You think about the kind of people that are maybe older homeowners that might be really bothered by something like this. That's where Greg Abbott has won in the past. That's the one group where Paxton does okay and an older homeowner is also the kind of person who shows up at a town meeting, fills out the form to provide their feedback, doesn't let something go, and might change their mind when, you know, Hosa is the one who came out of for a moratorium first. I think Greg Abbott wants this to be a pivot. In reality, looking at what he's doing, he is saying that there is a pause, he is allowing a process to unfold that could allow him to have basically complete flexibility after the election in November to either return to the policy as it was or paper over it with some sort of cosmetic changes and allow it to continue. So I think he's just trying to get through this without losing people for whom this could be a deciding issue. We should talk about Inohosa's message. She is running an ad where a person who attended the January 6th rally says she's voting against Abbott because he's bought and paid for by the billionaires and the corporations. Woof! Lost to J6er. Oh, they're a famously impressionable bunch. And she's running another ad pushing back on the two woke attacks with a page from the Republican script saying, "My pronouns are mom, Texan, and soon to be governor." Good ad, good ad. Tommy, what do you think of how Inohosa has positioned herself in her strategy in general? Sure. I was talking to a guy named Matt Angle earlier today who runs the Loan Star Project. He's a long-term Democratic fan, some fans out there. He's one of his rules for running successfully as a Democrat in Texas is don't get caught being a liberal. And I think Gina is ex-gating on that strategy. I think as much as we all loved Beto and were inspired by his campaign, I think he got a lot of national media attention. I think he became kind of like a national media darling and seen as like the great hope of the Democratic Party and that probably heard him back here and she's not going to make that mistake. I think Gina is a tougher race because Greg Abbott is not the most exciting candidate. He doesn't have a lot of Rizz, but he's got a lot of money and a good ground game that's sort of operating year round. So he's way tougher than Ken Paxton. And so her strategy is basically to win about 60% of the Latino vote, to blow it out in the five big urban counties and then to get like double digits with independence and then peel off as many kind of rural Republicans as she possibly can. And the two ways they're trying to do that is through issues, the first is education. So Abbott has a bunch of donors that are big charter school supporters. It's one of his like a Jeff Yoss, he's like Tiktok CEO or something, right? He's a Tiktok investor and at the state of the Internet of the Night, they just listed him on the, he's got to give it Trump to save Tiktok and so he just says Jeff Yass, Tiktok. Okay, yeah, great. So Jeff Yass is one of them and so he gives Abbott a bunch of money, surprise, surprise, all of a sudden money is getting routed from public schools to charter schools. And that means that schools are closing in these communities. You've got 150 school districts in Texas, the kids are going four days a week. That's crazy to me. That's crazy awesome. And then obviously it's like infuriating for parents, but then also if you live in that community, like you're losing the culture, you're losing Friday night's football, you're the biggest employer in the areas shutting down in some cases. So that's an area where she's really targeting like nagamoms who are pissed about this issue. And then the data center issue is another big opportunity. There's a group called Breaking Ranks or Break Ranks, which is a bunch of like rock ribbed Republicans, conservatives, and rural areas who are furious about data centers. And Gina has gone and met with them and heard them out and made all this really compelling content with them. And she's hoping to like get some of those voters because if you can flip somebody, that's where two votes as opposed to just turning someone else out. And so it's a, you know, it's a tall order. I think someone told me today like he thinks Gina's running dollar for dollar the best campaign in the state, he's just worried she's going to run out of dollars because you got to do a lot of things, you got to turn out a lot of voters in big media markets, you got to convince Latinos on the border, you have to reach these rural voters. So it's tough, but you know, she's running a smart campaign. I agree with that 100%. She is running one of the best campaigns, and I think it's not just in the state, but in the country. And the reason that I like it so much is it's so often Democrats in red states run to lose by less than the person who ran before them. And she is being aggressive. She is taking bold stance, and she's getting out in front on issues like data centers, flock cameras. She's doing these ads like this. She's just being, she is playing to win because she knows that the only way that a Democrat is going to win the governorship in Texas is to run a very high variant strategy, to take real risk and she's doing that. And that's like a model for what Democrats should be doing around the country in these races. In these places we haven't run governance races in a quarter century. So there are a lot of House races in play here as well. As you'll recall, Republicans famously kicked off the country's redistricting wars here in Texas last year because Donald Trump demanded more House Republican seats, except now a bunch of the new districts that they drew to elect Republicans are competitive anyway. We'll be talking to Bobby Polito about his race against Monica De La Cruz in the 15th district. And open seat in the 35th around San Antonio where Democrat Johnny Garcia is running against Monica De La Cruz's brother Carlos in the 23rd Katie Padilla Stout is working to beat that absolute lunatic, Brandon Herrera, and we've got an emerging race in the 11th where our own vote save America recruit Claire Reynolds jumped into the race against August Flueger and has a really good shot. Dan, too early to tell, of course, but how much of what we are seeing in the House races here is and the shift towards Democrats is due to the national environment and how much do you think it's something specific changing about the views of Texas voters and different demographic groups of Texas? Obviously, the biggest factor in Texas and where else is the fact that the Trump, the president is incredibly unpopular. He has launched an incredibly stupid war that everyone hates, it's raised gas prices above $4.00 a gallon and diesel above $7.00 a gallon and made interest rates at mortgage rates at 7%. Like, that is everything that's driving everything. But the forces that are sort of causing the problem is the possibly bottom out are magnified here in Texas because the two groups who Trump is losing the most ground with across the country have the greatest concentration in Texas, just Latino voters who have abandoned Trump in droves. We've seen that not just in polls. And then a special election results here in Texas and it's working class white women. And so here you have, in Texas is a state where, you know, 30% of voting eligible population is Latino. We expect a quarter of the electorate to be Latino. That shift is going to cause huge, it's a huge problem for Republicans that you're not seeing in other states because here you have both a large working class white population and a large Latino population and that is sort of, all the suburban nights and also Trump lost those hours before these are the ones you saw as we now. 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(upbeat music) - All right, we're gonna have more news in a bit, but we have a game first. And we're back. - We come from the land of California to study your ways, brisket, solar power, plastic straws. (audience laughing) There is much for us to learn, but where Texas truly stands apart these days is in your main renewable resource, shocking political scandals. (audience laughing) And so it's time for a game we're calling two scandals in a lie. Remember the alibi. (audience laughing) Here's how it works. I'm gonna read my boys here about three scandals, two of which are real, one of which we made up. You have to identify the lie. Here we go. First up, hey, stole a $1,000 Montblanc pen from a security bin at a courthouse metal detector. It was caught on video. Next, Beef said while purchasing ham for target practice was expensive, it was still cheaper than a homeless person while firing a gun out of ham. Or see, once gave a sermon at his own church in which he revealed his struggle to forgive Jesus for being Jewish. (audience laughing) Oh my God. Which did we make up? I'm guessing beef, but it's believable. All above is not an option. No, it is not. These are sincere, there's no tricks. Okay. I kinda think it's the church one, but I don't know. The ham, decide. The ham is just so specific. Well, have you been, I'd love it sprayed recently? Let's go with the church. That's right, that is when we made up. The ham, obviously Ken Paxton is the pen. The ham was, Brandon Herrera, for Texas 23rd in a YouTube video. So we stole the ham to shoot at the ham? No, no, he purchased the ham. He bought the ham. He bought the ham, shot the ham. Shooting the ham is fine. It was the homeless person part. I shouldn't have used the ham, but sure. Next up, called on to social media followers to vote in a poll asking whether Jews or Muslims are the bigger threat to America, B, posted a late-night video of himself railing against the perverted left, recorded what was from very clearly inside a strip club, or C, said that a gunrages dummy's empty head was full of much, much like the average Austin feminist. Ooh. Oh, do you seem like they're all-- I think some of them are here. I feel like these are all Brandon Herrera, right? Yeah, it sounds like it. The first one I know is right. I don't know what the next two. What do you think? Is it the strip club, or is it the mushy headed Austin feminist? I'm guessing he wasn't streaming from a strip club, so I'll say that was fake. That's correct. Actually, the poll between bigger threat, Jews or Muslims, was Texas Railroad Commissioner Canada, Bo French. I mixed those two up sometimes. And yes, the Austin feminist comment was from Brandon Herrera. Next stop-- oh, bonus question. Bonus question-- Herrera filmed himself firing a gun at bottles of ranch dressing, and after they exploded, rubbing ranch dressing on himself and declaring that the ranch would make him irresistible to whom? Who would be irresistible to a ranch covered Brandon Herrera? The answer-- fat bitches. I'm just reading it. Don't move, ho. That was a good-- Yeah, don't move, ho. Next up, use campaign donations to pay for his wife's hair extensions, horsebreeder, and psychic visits. In a social media post asked, if you believe irresist policies are better for Americans than Trump's policies, is the poll, ignorant, allire, retarded, or gay, or C, was impeached in part over $20,000 worth of kitchen countertops, kitchen countertops, corrupt kitchen countertops. I think that's right. Is it the-- which is it? What do you think? Kiss an A. I don't even remember what A was either. It was the donations for the psychic. And you're right. It was Bo-French with the poll. And it was Ken Paxton, who-- the House article's alleged that Austin Real estate developer Nate Paul paid for those countertops. I bet they were fucking ugly, too. Well, French really loves doing these polls, huh? Yeah, he just wants to get a vibe check on the people. And that's two scandals in a lie. Cohen, remember the alibi. Wow, that's-- all right. Well, Texas isn't the only place freaking out Republicans right now. We are now a little over five weeks from Election Day. And here's the latest headline from the best in the business forecasters, a cook political report, GOP on track to lose house majority as 15 race ratings shift toward Dems. That was today. [APPLAUSE] Here we go. Standing ovation for the cook political report, for those of you listening. Why did Dave Wasserman fans hear? OK, so they say that the most likely outcome at this point is that Democrats pick up anywhere from 5 to 15 house seats, which even at the low end would mean no more speaker Mike Johnson. [APPLAUSE] Dan, it seems like this is where money really makes the difference at the end of a campaign like this, where suddenly there's a bunch of seats potentially in play that neither side really thought we're going to be the most competitive districts. If you are sitting at the D-Triple C right now or an affiliated super PAC, how are you making decisions about where to invest in the final stretch, knowing that you can't do everything? Yeah, you can tell the Republicans know the house is gone, because they've moved much of their money to districts that Trump won by 10 to 15 points. So there's three districts that Trump won by 15 points that they're investing in right here in Texas. They're doing all across the country. And the goal here is not to preserve the majority. It's to limit the size of the Democratic majority, to make it easier for them to potentially get it back in 2028 or 2030. So this is where having basically unlimited money matters, because it allows Republicans to play in a whole bunch of races to shore them off the Democrats cannot. We do not have that money. So Democrats have to be incredibly disciplined about how to do it. And it's like, we want to win as many seats as possible. We want to send-- we want the largest majority possible allows us to do the most stuff. It also sends the most powerful message to the country, the post-Trump Republican Party, to the CEOs, law firms, media companies who have CalTalda Trump, that politics has changed in America. But you-- hey, Kim Jeffries is speaker, whether we have a one-seat majority or a 50-seat majority. and so you have to be very disciplined how you spend your money. And if I was there, the way I would think about it is, I think you can assume that, given this political environment, Democrats will win all nine seats that Kamala Harris won, right? They currently have Republicans. And some of those are, we're already going to buy a lot 'cause of the seats in California that Gavin Newsom redistricted. And then as you think about, where are you gonna place your bets in other races around the country? Like, there's a number of seats, and it's 11 that are in districts that Trump won by less than five points. And some of those are, he won by like, 0.1%, like in, or 0.02% like in Virginia, two, or Virginia, one, I can't remember which. And so where I would place my bets is, I would look very heavily at districts of the following kind. One with large Latino populations, this is where there's the greatest possible swing in the electorate. So I would look very, or I would obviously invest a lot here in Texas, but also in Florida. 'Cause prior, up until a few weeks ago, you'd seen this real split between how the Latino vote around the country is performing in health, performing in Florida. But that is change of, basically since gas prices wanna be even higher. And so now, the districts like Florida 27 and Florida 13 that were thought to be likely Republican that are now very well with them played. That's, Florida 27 is Mario Vira, Mario Vira Salazar, who ran the ad, attacking Trump over immigration. Then I would look at some of these districts in the South that have large black populations, because I really do think one of the driving things here is gonna be a huge surge in black turnout, as a response to the Supreme Court, just eliminating potentially a third of the congressional black caucus. And then you wanna, I really think that, and this is counterintuitive, but I think you're gonna make some real ground in rural districts like North Carolina 2, where it is rural areas, which is why Iowa's on the map, Ohio's on the map this time, and frankly, Texas is on the map, is that the rural parts of this country that have been the most pro-Trump, have been hammered the most by the trade wars, tariffs, the agricultural policy, where Trump's response to high beef prices was to import beef from Argentina, which tends to make American ranchers not particularly happy. And then diesel, right? The crossing to the agricultural economy runs on diesel, and $7 diesel was crushing these people. So I think there's some real opportunities in some district. This is why we have a couple districts in Iowa there in play, it's the sort of Carolina-Idris convention happens. You gotta just pick your opportunities, 'cause we can't play everywhere, 'cause we have so little money compared to the Republicans. - I think those spending restraints compared to the opportunity, or why you're starting to hear some operatives and candidates like voicing concern and frustration that some of the traditional big, big donors the Democratic Party are not viewing this as the generational opportunity that it could be. Because I was talking to someone today who was like, let me paint for you the extreme optimistic picture, which is Democrats are not only winning on the generic ballot, but if you look at the top most salient issues, we are crushing in those areas as well, which was not the case in 2024, right? When Republicans made immigration really salient, Democrats reviewed us on the wrong side of it, and we were getting hammered, then there's Latino vote element that you talked about. And then if you look at the special and off your elections and the Democratic overperformance, it's like 14 points on average as compared to 2024, and it's held, and that overperformance is better than 17 and 18. And so in a scenario where the results on election day look more like the overperformance in those specials, which we all stipulate is a different electorate and they're weird and whatever, but if it does, it is truly a historic opportunity to win statewide races, congressional races, down ballot, up and down, and it just feels like a moment when all the biggest donors in the party should be pushing all their chips in the table as aggressively as possible and not holding back for, I don't know what reason. Trump bothering them? - Yeah, I think there has been a huge shift in the funding approach in the large donor community since 2024. Part of it is people still angry about how that election went into them, like they loaded $1 million on fire in that election, which is a fair quibble in some ways. And then there are a lot of people who are very afraid of being targeted by Trump. Like just that your business is gonna be targeted, you're gonna have, all of a sudden you're gonna, the FBI is gonna show up at your door, you're gonna have regulatory scrutiny, you wouldn't have before. And so that has limited money. You're exactly right, Tommy, because the, there is the average polling error on the generic ballot in a house race is about three points. And there's a very real possibility that there's three points in the right direction, where you're looking at one of the largest swings in American history, something where Democrats could pick up races, we've never been with the possible. We've been using 2006 as like the most relevant example of an election because it's, you know, it's an unpopular president, unpopular war, all of that. But it very well could be a little more like '94, where everything changes, where it's a realigning election. - And the other, I mean, you were saying earlier that, you know, if, as Kim Jeffries is speaker, he's speaker and it doesn't matter if there's like another 10, 15, 20 seats, Trump's still president. But the, the important thing is to not just look at what this means for the next two years, but to look at 28 and beyond. Because if this is an opportunity to win a bunch of house seats, the Democrats couldn't win in a normal year because the environment's so bad for a Republican, then, and we pick up a whole bunch of seats, and then when the presidency in 2028, then that's gonna make it more likely for that Democratic president to actually be able to pass a real agenda through Congress because we got all these seats in 2026, knowing that, you know, in 2032, then you have a typical midterm year that like the party in power loses seats. And so you're just, you're building up more seats now. - I have to imagine the possibility of picking up Senate seats in places that in more typical year, we'd have no chance of getting, right? Like all the, the dumber version of this shift, right, is there is this shift in places that have been hurt the most, right in places like Iowa, Kansas, people are talking about Nebraska, right? But if we almost win those places while kind of doing as well as 2006 in a bunch of other places, we don't get extra credit at the end for having not picked up those seats in this one moment where we have the chance. - The Senate matters a bit more because you get it for six years, you get to live through when the way for seats so yeah. (upbeat music) - Pods in America is brought to you by Quince. You know those pieces in your closet that end up in heavy rotation, the sweater that goes with everything, the perfect pair of pants or the t-shirt you throw on without giving it a second thought? Those are the pieces that make getting dressed easy. And that's what Quince does best. Quince focuses on high quality wardrobe staples made with premium materials, like 100% Mongolian cashmere, organic cotton, and marino wool. The styles are timeless, versatile and designed to become the dependable pieces you reach for day after day. 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Find your next fall favorites at Quince, download the Quince app for app exclusive offers or go to quince.com/cricot, get free shipping on your order and 365 day returns now available in Canada and the UK too. That's q-u-i-n-c-e.com/cricot. U.S. voters abroad. Go to votefromablog.org and click request my ballot. Ask to receive it by email. Questions? Don't delay votefromablog.org. I'm Nate Silver. I'm Galen Druke. And I'm Claremalone. We're back. This time with our friends at Crooked Media for a new show called Still Counting. Yeah, numbers are hard, take so easy. And frankly, numbers have only gotten harder. What does the data actually say? How do we reconcile that? With the other things that we're seeing in American politics and around the world? And how do we use that data to understand or maybe even dare to predict the future of American politics? New episodes every Wednesday, starting September 9th. Subscribe to Still Counting on youtube.com/atstillcountingpodcast or wherever you get your podcasts. [MUSIC PLAYING] Well, let's talk about the cinema. Republican started the cycle, hoping to hold North Carolina and beat John Assoff in Georgia. And now their campaign committee is asking donors just recently for $9 million in emergency money to defend Alaska, Iowa, Ohio. Cook also moved Kansas, where J.D. Vance was sent to campaign from likely Republican to lean Republican. Send him three more times. I know. And South Carolina, they moved from solid Republican to likely Republican. Republican Senator John Kennedy, who's been campaigning in Iowa and Nebraska, told Reuters that six months ago he never imagined he'd be spending his time campaigning in states like these, because they should be, quote, fat guy lay ups. Does anyone know what that means? So that was my question. when you don't. - Yeah, you don't have a good job. You just, you kind of just lay it in. You don't have a big vertical leap because of your heaviness. Does that make it easy? - Right. - No, it's the question. - You're tall, like. - It's supposed to be easy. It's what he's saying. - Yeah. - And a fact I doing a lay-up is not necessarily easy. - That was my, yeah, my question. - You know what? I don't know. - Anyway. (audience laughs) Now, Tommy, Dan and I talked about this on yesterday's show, but you know, the New York Times polls show Susan Collins. I had three points in main Democrats in Michigan and New Hampshire are ahead, but still underperforming the generic ballot. How do you reconcile those two pictures of the Senate map where Cook is moving all these red state races towards Democrats, but then we saw those polls. - Yeah, and we get the fact I lay-up so I don't have a dualist to dunk. What I like about John Kennedy is he had to get degrees from Vanderbilt, UVA, and Oxford to sound that folksy. You know that about him? - Yeah. - As you go look at old videos of John Kennedy they're amazing because it wasn't his voice. - Yeah, no. - He really learned the folksy thing later. He's like, oh, he's just a really smart guy. - Yeah, now he's like, I'm just saying what he's saying, the exact same thing. I think, you know, the states that came out, the concerning polling, where let's take, let's start with main and New Hampshire. Main like Susan Collins is overperformed in a bunch of elections. She may very well do so again. She's a known quantity there. She drives us crazy, but they like her. Also, main and New Hampshire, like Dan talked about this historic swing of Latino voters that we're seeing nationwide and that showing up in these polls, main and New Hampshire like two of the whitest states in the nation literally. So you're just not gonna see that demographic shift showing up there. - Old two. - Old two. And then Michigan I think is a little more complicated of a story. You've got Abdul Asad emerging from a primary where $70 million worth of attack ads were dumped on his head and that obviously left a mark. You have got a candidate in Abdul who is pretty progressive and a state that has in recent years been more purple or swingy than maybe there is a bit of a penalty there. Although you also see Abdul winning on issues like Medicare for All, like 60% majority support Medicare for All. And then just old school, Islamophobia could be a piece of it. You guys I'm sure were forced to endure the midterm mini convention here in Dallas. Their entire focus when they talked about Abdul was basically blame him for 9/11 and you know accus him of being a terrorist. So it's just gross. - He was 14 I think? - Yeah, he was literally 16 years old. And so you know we'll see if those things add up to significant headwinds for him on election day or if you know maybe it's temporary, maybe it's maybe it's gone but I think those are the factors. One update on another Senate story from this week. So the reaction to the New York Times story about Mary Peltola's alleged poor treatment of her staff, offensive language, forced to chameleon feeding. - That's not like a weird euphemism, like feeding her pet chameleon. (laughing) - The crickets feed the crickets to the chameleon. Anyway, the reaction has been considerably less pearl clutchy from Democrats than you might have expected. Even a couple years ago. Here's a good example from Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego when he was asked about this. Also a combat veteran and he said quote, "When I was 25, I had a really bad boss. He made me run across an open fucking field of raking machine gunfire to breach a door." (laughing) That's great. Meanwhile Peltola's opponent, Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, called the allegations very disturbing a character issue and the Republican campaign committee called her "Dangerous and Unhinged." Stupid. Love it. How about those fucking snowflakes, huh? - What do you make of the muted reaction? Like signs of growth, just desperate to win. A little bit of both. - Yeah, sure. Look, I think there was a moment where, especially when people were in their homes and there was a lot of toxic online culture. People were afraid to say what they thought, which is like, do I think it's great if a boss calls an employee a (beep) no, but I think the Senate's more important. But now we're like, no, the stakes are too high and we've just been through too many rounds of this. And the fact that there are people that would be working for a Democratic member of Congress who may have been rude and mean. At the darkest moment in her life, by the way, like after experiencing incredible tragedy and then six weeks before an election to leak that to the times, like it's not a, it is a privilege to pretend you don't have to think about the stakes. Everybody has to think about the stakes. And whether or not Donald Trump can appoint right-wing anti-choice judges for two years, whether or not we have genuine investigations in the Senate, like these are the stakes in the election. And there's not a gay guy from Austin to underneath the docs in Provincetown who wouldn't be happily called a (beep) guzzling (beep) (audience laughs) to have a Democratic Senate, just a, just a mincing but-munching ass pirate. (audience laughs) And if we have to get Mary Peltola, honestly, we could knight her. Go to find the gayest fucking person you can find in the state of Texas, in the state of Alaska. However, Neil and have a sword go to both sides and say, you may call us wherever the fuck you want, Mary Peltola, if you win this seat. (audience cheers) - Anyway, if you're listening, Mary Peltola, come on Potsay of America. (audience laughs) That'll help. I don't help in the home stride. - Oh, you have to, you have to feed her lizard and you're a mad, then quit or shut up. (laughs) - It's also just like, if it was a dog, no one would have said anything. It's just 'cause it was a chameleon and it gets, I had lizards growing up, it's not hard. You give them like one cricket a week, fine. What kind of lizards did you have, Tommy? - A bunch, man, they're, what were they called? No, they weren't really chameleon. Anyway, they were cool. Let them go on the yard. They'd be arranged for a summer and then, you know, probably. - Peter Rowan's subscribers will get a chance to hear about Tommy's lizards. - Yes, that's, that is a subscriber benefit. (audience laughs) - For good.com/price. - Mary Peltola won't come on, Potsay of America. - Yeah, the others, it's shocking. - You'll be seeing love at fish with her soon. Finally, before we bring Bobby Palito on, in case you were all wondering what critical issues, the world's two biggest superpowers and competitors focused on during Chinese president, she's visit to Washington. The answer is Donald Trump's home renovations. Trump gave she a personal tour of his brand new White House helipad and then told reporters that she has a quote, "Great interest in granite, loves granite." Then at the state dinner, Trump went off scripts to invite she and the entire room, the entire dinner to after dinner was over, walk behind the curtain and become quote, "The first people to step foot on the ballroom construction site, very exciting." Which we learned this week from the Washington Post was not originally designed with sufficient emergency exits and fire containment measures. But when the original architect pointed out that the ballroom wouldn't meet building codes, Trump reportedly said, "I am the code." (audience laughs) - That's real. Tommy, a lot of places we could go with this. - What do you think she thinks of Donald Trump? - He thinks he's a clown. The whole thing was so embarrassing. Usually a bilateral meeting between two great superpowers has a purpose or an outcome that you're preparing to get to. This one was a joke, they continued to punt the trade war. They didn't really figure out anything real about artificial intelligence. - Super intelligence. - That's right now. - Trump tried to curry favor with all this protocol and pomp and circumstances to include meeting him at the airport, which Chinese are big on protocol. And I can just assure you that that made them think that Trump looked like subservience. - I don't go to LAX to pick up my wife. - No one. - I've ever taken over. - Don Jr's like, "Oh, you're gonna pick up G at the airport." - Cool. - Yeah. - For sure. - No. - But all those years, you picked me up from camp, dad. (laughing) - The one time Obama met someone at the airport was the Pope and he reports to a higher power, as we all know, so it made sense in that context. The whole meeting was a joke. Trump looks like an absolute clown in front of she. She's got him over a barrel with rare earths and all these trade issues. And so the whole thing was just stupid. - He's got a thing for a commies. - He does. - He fun to buy me. (laughing) - It's just Trump's kink. All right, when we come back, we'll be talking to Texas Democratic House candidate, Bobby Polito. (upbeat music) - This podcast is sponsored by Squarespace. Squarespace is the all-in-one website platform designed to elevate your online presence and drive your success. Squarespace provides all the tools you need to promote and get paid for your services in one platform, whether you offer consultations, events, or other experiences, Squarespace can help you grow your business. 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Head to squarespace.com for a free trial, and when you're ready to launch, go to squarespace.com/cricut to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain that's squarespace.com/cricut. U.S. voters abroad have you got your ballot yet? Go to votefromabroad.org and click "Request My Ballet." Ask to receive it by email. Questions? Don't delay. Votefromabroad.org. I'm Nate Silver. I'm Galen Druke. And I'm Claremalone. We're back. It's time with our friends at Crooked Media for a new show called Still Counting. Yeah, numbers are hard. Take so easy. How do we reconcile that with the other things we're seeing in American politics and around the world? Subscribe to Still Counting on YouTube.com/@StillCountingPodcast or wherever you get your podcasts. He's running against a Trump Bank Republican in Texas' 15th District and one of those competitive races in the country could determine control of the House. He's also won a couple of Latin Grammys. So, Trump won Handley in this district in 2024, but something is changing. Your race is one of the races, I believe, that got moved to the toss-up category. And your opponent, in a recent leaked audio, said of a poll, "Oh, sweet Lord Jesus, that's not good." What are you hearing from voters about why people who may have voted for Trump are sort of turning away from him and his allies? Okay, there's two questions there. That part where she said that was like really early in the year. It's gotten a lot worse since then. But I'll tell you, you know, people don't like it light to. How about a novel idea there, right? They said there was going to be no new wars and now when they put gas and diesel now that's $6 a gallon, they're reminded that they got light to, still waiting for a health care plan since 2017. It's been one light after the other, really. The only thing that he can probably hang his hat is that the border is secure. But now there's no chaos on the border, it's chaos on the streets. And there's people really living in fear down there, you know? The Rio Grande Valley is 94% in Hispanic. And now that they are allowed them to racial profile based on, you know, race or language, imagine what that does to a community. Any community I don't care which one that's living in fear cannot function properly. And people are really angry. But I understand a lot of these voters were voting Republican because of, you know, Chamber of Commerce Republicans, lower tax cuts, they're finding out right now that those policies are actually bad for business. And that's the biggest break that I've seen. I think people right now, both parties are not popular because if like nobody represents the people. And, you know, we ran with a platform based on, I'm not here for the party, I'm here for you. And, you know, does that mean that I don't think people fit into the heterodoxy of either party, especially Hispanics? So speaking of what's been happening with ICE, your opponent was originally very supportive of the Trump immigration crackdown, back cuts to Medicaid, back the huge increase in funding for ICE and attention centers. He's now running ads about getting someone out of detention, the detention she voted to increase by billions and billions of dollars. It's amazing what happens when they think they're going to lose. Right. What was your reaction to that? What is your response to her claim that she's sort of been looking out for people that have been grabbed by ICE? Oh gosh. It's completely disingenuous. I mean, everything started like right after I won the primary. There was a group of mariachi and a couple of kids that had gone, she took them to Washington to go play for her. And she was actually like showing a selfie look, I'm here with mariachi kids and then they got detained. And they asked her to go help them and she said there's nothing that she could do. So on a Saturday, I called her out for her hypocrisy, I showed the video. And by Monday, she hauled out, I'm not lying, a big podium out at the detention center and pulled one of them out like as if she was walking Castro. I would have never thought if you had told me in 2024 that a Republican would be out there saying, look what I'm doing for the immigrants. I would have told you, you're crazy, but she absolutely wants to have it both ways. And you can't. So we're going to play a game in a mobile one last question, which is, you've talked about sort of people feeling distanced at dissatisfied with both parties. One of the challenges it seems is you're dealing with a caricature people might have of somebody running as a Democrat. First of all, what does that feel like to you and what are the questions you get about that and then how do you go against that? Just honest. I mean, there is a caricature. But you know, you got to understand, like they jerrymandered the district so much that for a long time, the Democrats would not go campaign in these rural areas because they could win it with a vote in the RGB, in the Rio Grande Valley. So we were kind of negligent in not going showing up. I'm not making that same mistake. We've gone to every single county, the reddest counties. Counties that don't have a Democratic party. And the people need to trust you and you can't show up with three months or with a commercial to earn their vote. And the polling shows that it's been working because we're actually showing up. And I think that's a secret. That's a secret sauce. We got to get out there. It's a lot of work. We're not going to win an election based on commercials or mailers. Well, it doesn't hurt that you played concerts and a lot of people. It doesn't hurt. Well, before you were ever in politics, that must be nice. Look, that's the foot in the door, but it doesn't close it. I mean, it absolutely, there's a lot of people that want to know, like, are you, you know, the scary Democrat that we keep hearing about? And you've got to show them that I just want you to have affordable health care. You know, I want you to want people to be able to live their life without fear. And once they hear that, they're like, well, I agree with that. Well, so do I. And so it's not that hard to be honest with you. The one thing I don't do is I don't go shame on for how they voted. We don't talk about the past. We're looking at the future and we're running that kind of race, you know. We're running against somebody that's really trying to the same old smear tactics. They called me a Kinsen Yeta singer, right, like on primary night and like trying to be like Trump. And we got invited to over a thousand Kinsen Yetas in one day. And no, I'm serious, like, we've had 5,000 invites since and we've done 75 of them. That's amazing. And we actually send them, you know, we ask, we have one ask. Can we have volunteers here to sign people up? And they go, yeah, that's our grassroots move. Awesome. Nice. Well, you've graciously agreed to stick around for a game. Austin, bring out the game hat. So, Texas. We love it here. And even though there are some interlopers who are trying to turn Austin into the godforsaken love child of Nashville in San Francisco, you said it, I didn't know, it's still rules. I got a giant plate of brisket last night and they just threw someone some extra on there for fun. And maybe because there were some sadness in my eyes because Tommy didn't come with me. And even though I was stuffed, I got a dipped cone on my way back. And then I died and then I saw Mitch McConnell and now I'm here. For a game we're calling, Choosing Texas or Cowboy Up. Here's how it works. We have questions in this hat for Bobby Polito. Each of us will reach in and grab a question. They're either oars and it's rapid fire, you just got to go with your gut, okay? Are you ready? All right. Johnny want to kick it off? Sure. Try to get through as many as we can. Okay. Beef brisket or pork ribs? I'm gonna risk it. -Tare down the Trump Ballroom or leave it up and host a massive record-breaking Kinson Yara there in 2029. -What? -Are we gonna tear down the Trump Ballroom or leave it up and you'll host a Kinson Yara there during the night? -We'll tear that mother down. -California or New York? -Oh. -I hate you. New York. -If you hated him, you're gonna. -If you hated him, you're gonna hate me. Greg Abbott or Beau French? -What? -Oh, my God. -It's like gonna rear syphilis, right? -That's a good answer. -Bajo sexto or tolo loche? -Oh! -Bajo sexto. -All right. -Yeah, that's a good one. -JD Vance or Marco Rubio? -Yeah. -Neither, but Marco Rubio had to pick. -That's the right answer. -Aggies are long horns. [ Laughter ] -I have a UT son right now. Hook 'em horns, man. [ Cheers and applause ] -Yeah. -All right, that was easy. Houston or Dallas? I'm a Houston Texan fan. [ Cheers and applause ] -Texas Sheetcake or Peacampi? -I don't even know what the first one was. What was that? -Texas Sheetcake? -Never heard of that. -I haven't either. -I'm from the Valley, excuse me, man. Like, um. -What did you guys think? [ Laughter ] -Did you say cheesecake or sheetcake? -Sheetcake. -Sheetcake. -I've never heard of that. -Yeah. -Beak on back. -Beak on back. -What do you guys think? -It's a little high. -People want the Sheetcake answer. -Taxen or Beau French? -They're different. -Really, man? Like. Shit, like. -Uh. -Like. -Gosh. -No, man. -That's. [ Cheers and applause ] -Taxen, right? -Yeah. -I mean. -Over Beau French? -Yeah, over Beau French. -For sure. -It's a tough choice. -Yeah, it's a tough choice. Dan or someone named John? [ Laughter ] -That's not. I wrote this and that is not what it said. -Oh. -I punched you up. -Dan or Tommy, go with your gut. [ Laughter ] -Tommy, you were the first one to interview me on Pud. -Oh, there we go, there we go. -Fair enough, fair enough. Grammys or Latin Grammys? -Oh, gosh. I have two Latin Grammys. I don't have a Grammy. Grammy. -There you go. -Wow. -Last one. -Ted Cruz Beard or Ted Cruz No Beard? [ Laughter ] -Oh no, this is. And that was the last we ever saw of Bobby Polito. -Okay. -He was like, "That's it. I'm going back to music." -You're asking me about Fat Wolverine? Sorry, man. No, no. Beard. -Yeah. -I think the last of Ted Cruz's face, you see the better. -Yeah, that's good. -All right. Where can people go to swear your campaign before we wrap this? -Probably for Texas. And, you know, we're down to stretch. We definitely, you know, they have more money than we do. And we need to compete. So, you know, we'd be really gracious if people could go in there. Donate. -Thank you so much. -Oh, go. -And that's our game. Thank you to Bobby Polito for joining us. Thank you all for joining us. And that's our show. We'll see you all later. Positive America is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts, and Ferris Safari, with Reed Charlene, Elijah Cohn, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Heffko, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, David Tolls, Mia Kalman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Single. Our staff is probably unionized with the writer's Guild of America East. [music playing] -I'm Nate Silver. -I'm Galen Druke. -And I'm Claire Malone. -We're back. This time, with our friends at crooked media, for a new show called Still Counting. Counting. -Yeah, numbers are hard, it takes very easy. -And frankly, numbers have only gotten harder. -What does the data actually say? How do we reconcile that with the other things that we're seeing in American politics and around the world? And how do we use that data to understand or maybe even dare to predict the future of American politics?