CFP Rankings & Expansion Reaction + Week 11 Prediction Show

- How do you know that cloud won't become manipulative? - This is a constant worry. - And you can actually catch the model thinking, I think X is actually true, but I'm gonna tell the user why. - I'm Walter Isaacson. I'm my new podcast, The Builders. I'm going inside the minds of the people shaping our future. Listen to The Builders starting October 13th on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. In October 2021, my brother David was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. A year later, he convinced me to make a podcast with him, this podcast. - My biggest fear is that I am afraid of being forgotten. - My brother David is the story of the last chapter of my brother's life. It's weird and messy and vulnerable, and I'm gonna share all of it with you. - Okay, so here we go. - Listen to my brother David on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. - Looking for practical advice to help you grow your career. DM me with Doug Melville is the podcast for you. I'm your host, Doug Melville. Every week I sit down with leaders, founders, creators, and innovators. - There's no external force, more influential in human behavior than culture, full stop. And if you have any want or desire to get people to move, then culture is the biggest cheat code that you're not using. If you are serious about growing professionally and personally, just DM me. Listen to DM me with Doug Melville from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. (upbeat music) - That's a lot of lies out there, Jesse. A ton of more like a little island of truth. One guy said in the live chat, I'm scared to go to Mozilla, lie. Another guy said the show's pre-recorded, lie. And then they're telling me we had to expand the playoff to 2014's, lies, lies, lies. We're jam packed, we're high atop. An anxious downtown Nashville, Tennessee, on this Tuesday night, November 10th, the overall order of 2026. Now, as you may notice, the playoff rankings don't get released if you're watching the show live for another hour. So that's not gonna be in this show. I am going to make the staff work overtime tonight. So we'll be done in about an hour and then we will regard to the college football playoff rankings reveal and I'll upload that video as a separate video. Sound good? Sound good. Playoffs expanded to 2014's. It's garbage, I hate it and we'll talk about it in a second. We've got full week 11 predictions tonight. Is there some massive earth-shaking upset that could never happen? I'm talking about like ridiculous Boston college Notre Dame type stuff, like Missouri, Georgia doesn't even fit the criteria. I don't even think A&M over Tennessee would be much of one, according to FanDuel, but is that gonna happen in one of these weeks here? Kyle Winningham at Michigan? Is that gonna happen much longer? Well, all that plus the J.P. poll out tonight. They're watching us in Missoula Montet. How does that happen? How does Missoula get mentioned twice in the first two minutes of the show? Nothing against Missoula. Here's a third time. Missoula Montana is tuned in. Raleigh North Carolina is tuned in. I am told via the live chat, "Seneca, Missouri is tuned in. Beautiful people, beautiful places, time of year." And Zion'sville, Indiana is tuned in. Jesse, the other night we achieved magic on the show. When we hit 600,000 subs live on air and for those of you who were around, we will never forget where we all were. Did we just lose the subway with the subcutter? It's having the reverse effect that I wanted it to. Anyway, as you can see, we're well on our way to 700K now. We are still efforting around the old office here. We're scrubbing through comments. We're trying to find a good, worthwhile celebration that we can all participate in for hitting the 600K club. Jesse's fresh out of ideas 'cause he's refusing piercings and body art. He says that's more like million subtype stuff, which his word's not mine. I can tell you what we're not gonna do. We're not gonna eat 410 peeps. We're not gonna put our fate in the hands of Dan landing. If you don't know what I'm talking about, don't bother. Okay, let's dive in. I'm gonna wipe the smile from my face. Very somber tone here for the next few minutes. The college football playoff is officially expanding to 24 teams. That's gonna happen next season. I'm not gonna bore you and relitigate how I feel about this. It's terrible. It's the wrong decision. It was made by the wrong people. So I think we've all known that this was coming for quite a while. We've all known a lot of unqualified people. Is that right, the right word, Jesse? Unqualified people are kind of in decision-making positions in the sport right now. This will not achieve its stated goal because the logic behind the move is detached from the stated goal. The stated goal is to make the season better. The logic behind it is, this is our last resort. By R, I mean the people that kind of drove college football down the wrong path for a long, long time. And they kept burning through money like it was monopoly in nature for a long, long time. They operated void of any consequence because money was not real in this sport for a long time. And now at all the sudden is and people who were forced to practice approximately zero fiscal responsibility for a long time are faced with the harsh reality that debt comes calling eventually. Their last resort, 'cause these are largely talentless people who are not known for coming up with great ideas of their own is we'll just expand the playoff. That's always worked. When we're fresh out of ideas, we'll just expand the playoff. That's the real reason for it. It's not to make the season better. That's just what they feed you. And by the way, I'm not totally down. I'm totally down on 24 teams in the playoff. I am not totally down on the future of the sport. I, in a very twisted sort of way, am a little bit up on the future of the sport right now because this was the last resort and it'll fail. And if that's what it takes to flush a lot of these people and a lot of this sneaking out, then so be it. I'll get to that in a second. I have never seen a more disastrous and tone deaf optical day than the college football playoff had yesterday. So they make their announcement, okay? And I want to preface what I'm about to say by saying this. I like Rich Clark a lot. Rich Clark is in no shape form or fashion responsible for the decision making here. He is the person who is tasked with messaging. We had Rich in this studio back in the spring. He came and paid us a visit spending afternoon with him. He sat down with us. I like Rich Clark. And then yesterday, they make the announcement and then it comes time to decide how they're going to handle the announcement optically. So of course Rich Clark, who is doing interviews about this, he kind of finally set it out loud. And I couldn't believe it, man. I was really slapped in the face by this. So Rich Clark was doing a lot of pool interviews yesterday. Show me that quote. You and I both know our voices haven't mattered in this, right? But there's one thing for us to know. And there's another thing for them to just admit it. And this is really where the canoe went over the waterfall yesterday. Rich Clark said the college football playoff is aware of fans sentiment and that quote. Many fans aren't in favor of expansion. But we owe it to them to make this great and that really is our intent. Here's the money quote. We did take into account their sentiment, but we decided to move forward with it. So we heard you, we just don't care. Your voice was heard. Your voice just doesn't matter. You remember Jesse for a little while, we would run polls like, we got a huge audience. This is like the biggest college football show in digital media. So I trust that our audience is a pretty healthy sample size for what college football fans think. And I would run polls on this show. And it was 2080, 1585, four versus against. And there were some people, I'm dead serious now. I never shared this with you. There were some people who reached out. There were like ADs. There were people in the administrative world who would reach out and they would actually say, well, of course, your audience says that. They're just echoing how you feel. Well, man, our audience must have been pretty loud yesterday, buddy, because anything the college football playoff put out got dunked on. It got eviscerated. Here's how tone deaf they were. Like, here's how detached from the reality of how unpopular this is they were. They made hype videos for it, Jesse. They actually, the playoff committee started tweeting out hype videos. And for those of you who are smart enough not to live your lives on Twitter, you see these little numbers down here. You see where there's a little speech bubble there on the left. It says 3.5 K and little hard over there says 3.2 K. We call that being ratioed. The playoff committee got ratioed yesterday. The playoff itself got ratioed by their consumer base that they've pissed on for the better part of their existence, but especially here lately they have. You know, cause when they went from BCS to four teams, the public was in support of it. Now, they weren't going from BCS to four teams because you wanted it, but as long as you were on board with it, they could lie and say we're expanding because the fans wanted. And then when they took it from four to twelve, there was still overwhelming fans support. They never moved from four to twelve because you wanted it, but since your interests or your opinions happened to coincide with their goal, they were perfectly fine continuing the charade that we're expanding this because the fans wanted. But now, fans don't want it. So they stopped citing fan and actually started putting out statements that said, "Oh, no, we know you don't want it." And even though you're the entire reason this thing is valuable to begin with, we don't care. We're going to do it anyway. It won't work. It won't work because of that. You can't ignore that. This is not a 50/50 issue. So this is extremely unpopular. It will be met very harshly. That doesn't mean people won't watch. That's not what I mean. I mean, what I'm about to talk about in a little while will become more and more a reality as the years go by and it ain't like a decade's got to go by. So some of the lies that have been told and are continuing to be told about this, I just wanted to clear up because if you want to know why I'm personally against the 2014 playoffs, we've done several shows on that. I'm not going 30 minutes on that again tonight, but I just wanted to go down a list of some of the lies that get told about this and so we can have them all here in one little segment. Lie number one. We had to do this. We had to expand the playoffs so that teams are willing to schedule more aggressively. Number one, know you didn't. They're free to schedule that way now. Put a finer point on it. We're free to force them to schedule tougher now. To put a finer, finer point on it, they're not going to schedule tougher. It was always stupid to expect that no sooner had this announcement come out, then we've got news breaking. Florida has canceled a home and home with Notre Dame in 2031, 2032. Why would you ever schedule tougher? Why? Even if you're punished for playing a lightweight schedule, they may drop you out of the top five. If you're undefeated, what are they going to do? Drop you out of the top 24. Everyone knows that's garbage. Everyone knows that wasn't the reason for this. It was just something that was used to saran wrap the real reasoning behind it. That's one of the lies. Lie number two. I had to go in on someone about this yesterday. What much rather watch playoff games than meaningless bowl games? That's not what this is about. That's not what any of this is about. You're not taking meaning that is absent on a bowl game and then repurposing that slot with a meaningful playoff game. Bowl games always had the value they had. You may care about bowl games. You may not care about bowl games. Playoff games are not sucking value off of a bowl game. Playoff games are sucking value off of regular season games because the more you expand the postseason, I think most people understand, you're doing it at the expense of urgency on regular season games. Whether you're okay with that or not is your business, but please stop treating this like it's this one-to-one trade-off. Well, you've got meaningless bowl games now, so we're simply replacing those. That's all we're doing. Nothing else is affected. It's just a one-to-one trade-off. No, it's not. No, this has never been about bowl games. I could think bowl games are the most meaningless, stupid thing in the world and I would never even equate them to expanding the playoff. That's not what this affects. Getting the playoff does not affect bowl games. It affects the regular season. Number three, this is a really big lie that I think more and more people are waking up to. Well, 24 teams, at least that gives more access for G6. No, it doesn't. It slams the door in your face. You're done. You're done. And if you're smart, you'll start exploring a G6 playoff today. I don't care if you've ever been on board with that or not. You're done. The parameters of this completely box you out. You'll get one team in and no more because along with expansion of playoff comes this little caveat where there are new scheduling requirements where everyone's got to play at least 10 P4 games. Now, let me explain what that means. What that means is that the games that used to be used to schedule G6 competition will have to be repurposed and so everyone will be out there trying to schedule Vanderbilt or Syracuse because they, A, don't really want a tougher schedule, but B, they do have to meet minimum schedule requirements. You won't have the opportunity to play a schedule that's tough enough to warrant consideration for the top 24, top 25. One of you will be in because that's how they get around lawsuits. They have one guaranteed spot for the G6 and the rest of you will not sniff the top 30. Because even if you go undefeated, your strength of schedule won't be tough enough and by the way, it's no small coincidence that their extreme, extreme emphasis all of a sudden on strength of schedule is going to change the dynamic of rankings. You're done. You're done. It's no longer about a utopian hopeful world. You got to face reality and you got to find a way to subsidize yourself. I hate it. I don't like it. I'm telling you it's reality and you better, you better for once get ahead of this instead of reacting at every turn to what the big boys in the room force you to live. You don't have to be that way. Number four, ESPN did this, ESPN didn't do this. You can criticize ESPN all you want to. There's fair criticism about what various networks have done to the sport, whether you like it or whether you don't like it, ESPN didn't push for this, ESPN did not want a 2014 playoff. I know the people in the room. I know the folks over at Fox. I can tell you this though, once ESPN realized that all of those conferences were on board, what they weren't going to do is let this get to open market. So once ESPN realized we don't want this thing to expand, we're perfectly happy with how it is, but if it's going to expand, we're going to go pay what it takes for this not to hit the open market. They did nothing different than you and I would do if we ran ESPN. Like literally if I ran ESPN, my wish would be don't expand it. And then when the entirety of college football came to me and said no, we're expanding. I'd say, okay, well, I'm going to buy every bit of it then. Like there were some people who wanted it to expand, simply so one network didn't control the whole thing. That was never going to happen and I'll tell you frankly, I was a little surprised because I don't really concern myself with the inner workings of playoff negotiations very often. But when I talk to some of the folks at Fox, they understood we're not going to get a shot at this. We understand we're not going to get a shot at this. I was eye opening a little bit for me, but that was the way it always was. But ESPN didn't push for this. You can criticize ESPN nine ways from Sunday on other things. They didn't push for this. Coaches pushed for this by way of their athletic directors, by way of their presidents, by way of their conference commissioners. That's who pushed for this. And in the most ignorant mentality possible, these people actually think and expand the playoff will save their jobs. Reese Davis was on Dan Patrick's show earlier today and he stated it perfectly, he's right. As he usually is, he said, maybe one year, a guy that finishes eight and four and makes the playoff in an alternate universe will have saved his job. Whereas in this universe, he will have been fired. But after that, it'll just turn into the NFL. The NFL very frequently. You see guys flirt with making a playoff or making the playoff. But then it becomes what we got to get over the home. In college football, there isn't even that extreme competitive balance that the NFL has. There's more of it. But in college football, you're allowed to spend $40, $50 million on a roster. Do you honestly think if Mike Elko continues to go eight and four at A&M, finishing outside the top 20, but he peels off two fringe playoff appearances. Those people are going to feel any different than they would if it was a 12 team format. That counts on people just being dumb. They're not going to be that dumb for that long. You're not accomplishing what you think you're going to accomplish. Lie number five, well, you'll still watch. As long as you'll still watch, it must be good. First off, yeah, I'll still watch. Of course I will. I got nowhere else to go. That's like the restaurant owner for the only place in town claiming success because people in the town come to his restaurant. No, your food may suck. You may have horrible service. They just have nowhere else to go, but you know what some people will do? Some people just drive to the next town, Jesse. I would not automatically assume the same things that NASCAR did back in the day. Oh, they'll show up. Where else are they going to go, man, there's no other high-level stock car racing league to watch. They'll just stop watching stock car racing. That's what they'll do. I won't stop watching college football. But man, I'm here till the sport literally disappears. Not everyone feels that way. And so the irony of all this is we found a good format. At once point of time, I was against expansion to 12, but the landscape changed. Now, in speaking of the word irony, I do think that expansion from four to 12 when we did it was dumb. I think the sport grew into 12 teams being the right format because of how much the sport flattened. But I think it's pure dumb luck that the people who pushed for playoff expansion happened to push for it. right before portal and n_i_l_ flatten the thing out so i ended up thinking as i think right now twelve is very good if you gave me the opportunity to format the sport however i wanted to well i do a lot in the way of undoing conference realignment but if i only had access to the playoff i just keep it at twelve i wouldn't go i wouldn't go back to four because i don't think that the landscape today merits having only four teams but i also don't think we ever need to go past twelve because of how fine the balance of urgency and accesses twelve is a really good number for access twelve is also a really good number to maintain urgency some guy on twitter yesterday said well there's no real difference in expanding from twelve to twenty four the loser of alabama l_s_ you the other day already knew they weren't out of the playoff so how's it any different like do i really have to explain how different it is knowing that you're one loss away from fighting for your life verses alabama and l_s_ you plan the other night knowing the loser can afford to lose at least one more instil b_n_ do we really need to understand the uh. the wrong away from death do we really need to explain how different it feels when you know you can afford to lose maybe one more verses definitely being able to afford to lose two more no it doesn't feel the way it used to but it's not it's not all or nothing it's not zero or one hundred it's not either we live in a world where you lose one game in your dead or we live in a world where the regular season doesn't mean anything the regular season means exactly what it should mean right now which is the sports balanced out a whole lot more that means you got room to lose a couple of games if you play a good schedule but you can't lose four of them pretty good place to be most of you can afford to lose three that's a really good place to be i'm not all down on this that's what i was telling you a little while ago i'm not all down on this i think some hard lessons are about to be learned because i don't think viewership numbers are going to do what people think they're going to do here i also don't think viewership numbers would fall off a cliff if you didn't expand mind you uh. because that's what some people think some people think well if we don't expand this and everyone everyone who's teams been eliminated just going to check out not over no they're not no they're not people who would have watched wake forest football or north kerala football or nc state football prior to this still will these people never had it wired into them that they were supposed to be competing for a national championship because believe it or not up until about five minutes ago up until the who's in error swept the nation not everyone defined success as whether or not we made the playoffs but there will be some lessons learned here here's what will happen though the most important thing to know right now is the conference model is probably on the verge of collapse over the next five or so years uh. there are a lot of indicators have been a lot of indicators behind the scene for quite a while what noted aim does a bunch of folks have always wanted to do full independence so a lot of folks have always wanted to do is just up until right now you can really do it because the world works in terms of media rights deals and media rights espn thoughts they have deals with conferences they don't have deals with teams that will radically change in the next few years radically new money will enter the equation and radically change that new platforms will enter the equation and radically change that and what will happen in the interim or what will happen as a result is the death grip that conferences and conference commissioners have on the sport right now will loosen and that new landscape will be a lot smarter it'll be a lot smarter with its money it'll be a lot smarter with its scheduling it'll be a lot smarter with its formatting and it'll be a lot smarter about not pissing off its consumer base then the one we live in right now you're probably witnessing a death rattle here not of the sport the sport will be fine sports awesome but the the lackluster leadership the non-existent leadership and hopefully the last vestiges of its existence if it has to happen for that to get wiped out of here so be it still the greatest sport on the face of the earth will be on the road this weekend let's talk about it you know football games coming up Missouri Georgia I'm just waiting for the lower third there we go Missouri at Georgia this Saturday 330 game on ABC this game is presented by Jimmy Jones you know what that means Jesse pickle which pickle which available Jimmy johns dot com Jimmy johns out how many pickle why pickle which plural pickle why have you eaten today Jesse he didn't give me a number too many to count limit does not exist you know Kirby's eight no versus Missouri do you know Missouri is oh and 18 versus AP top ranked teams I did call stats and info told me that where is Missouri coming off the Texas game I thought they beat Texas they didn't where are they where are they health wise we gotta find that out but also just up here where are they because it feels like this game could radically go a couple of directions and the other thing is it where's Georgia not got a lot more confidence in the answer to this question technically Georgia could be in a letdown spot I don't think so I don't think so Kirby's been around this block plenty enough times to understand like that famous quote of his humility is just a week away he might not come up with it but I hear him say it the most often he understands how to hardwire that into a team so I don't think they'll be in letdown mode now here's the other part of that equation I know last week looked totally emphatic I promise you the margins aren't that big in the sport right now you can get a blowout game every now and then you they got one against the old miss last week just terrible match up it what was the score Jesse was 42 to what seven I can't see the whole screen right there it could have been a hundred to seven or thirty four to seven at some point the cups just full and then the rest of it's just overflowing my point is gotta be careful getting fooled into thinking that that big number means the margins are that big the margins are not that big in the sport right now there this team has lost to Auburn this year I promise you the margins aren't as big as that final score indicates but it does mean Georgia's a really good team here and they absolutely deserve to be the number one team in the country so sometimes when we have points praise this big we just look at it say if an upset happens how would it happen uh. the first thing that they have to do is they got to have Jamal Roberts have a really good day on the ground he's five and oh or their five and oh when he runs for over a hundred against fb s teams and they're oh and three when he doesn't now I don't know that that's the ultimate line of demarcation here like pre padlock stat Jamal Roberts goes for a hundred and five and Missouri is going to win no but if he doesn't have a good day on the ground there's no way they win because they really need explosive runs I also don't think it'd be the kind of day where he just consistently breaks off five six seven yard runs I think it'd be the kind of day where they have two or three explosive runs here's the problem with that Georgia doesn't give them up they've given up one run of thirty plus yards all year so you would need to go into Athens and do something or force them into a position that no one's forced them into yet Austin Simmons can do a lot but there is no way that you're beating Georgia down there unless you run the ball successfully and it's just really hard to do that on them right now the other thing is you got to force Georgia into at least showing dimensions I think a lot of people look at Georgia they say oh man you got to you got to make them beat you with Gunner Stockton throwing the ball you know what they can do they can just beat you with Gunner Stockton throwing the ball it's not about that being some weakness for them it's about out of the two options if they're just running and all me like they didn't get stole miss I know I've got no shot at least if Gunner Stockton has to put the ball in the air maybe I can affect him maybe he gets a little rattled maybe he gets some errant throws maybe I have that Auburn game where their minus three turnovers again but being you know your top 12 Missouri's top 12 and have a great so they can affect the quarterback they can make some stuff happen it's just that you can't be in second two all afternoon and make that happen they've held four of seven p four teams under a hundred yards rushing Georgia flips a lot of stack categories like that on their ear though which is always what concerns me here Auburn is the only team in the last five that didn't run for or they didn't run for 200 on right yeah so there are a lot of things here it's weird because it feels like the way the game sets up it feels like this massive spread game it is it's 15 and a half it's just the kind of game that I think has to start and your eyes have to see Missouri hanging like you that you have to see this thing a dog fight in the third quarter to where a lot of things just click in your mind like I guess they can do this you know they did it against Texas they competed hard against Texas last week going on the road the week after that to Georgia's different animal and so for me this kind of game feels like you know early on if it's you know I'm gonna say this it's not meant to be a joke if Georgia does to Missouri what Ohio state did early to Oregon last week I doubt Missouri's rattle enough 38 unanswered. So it feels a lot more like the Georgia Ole Miss game, where Georgia gets, if they get out to an early two-score lead, they're just done. They're not done scoring, but the game's probably done. Missouri's got to have some stuff happen early. I don't care what it is. Special teams turn over. Maybe they just have better rhythm offensively than you would expect them to have here. But if they don't, they could get buried. The model right now virtually agrees with Fandoules. So Fandoules got Georgia minus 15 and a half. We got Georgia minus 15. I'm going to tell you, I hope and trust Missouri's got some fight in them. I'm going to take Georgia to win and cover the game. My suspicion is it's not an early runaway. I don't think that's the way it'll be. I do think that if they get them into the second half, it could go from really, really tightly contested game to 31-14 or something like that. And it ends up where you're saying, "What, Georgia, man?" Like they had a fight on their hands, and they still found a way to cover that number. That's kind of the way I feel like the game's going to go. If it doesn't go that way, well Missouri all of a sudden thrusts themselves right back into the middle of the playoff conversation. We're going to be down there though. On the sideline, no less, less something changes Thursday. Week 11 tour, don't tread on Saturday tour, taking us to Georgia. The shirts are live right now at patestatematerial.com. We moved a metric ton of those bad boys over the last two days and still time for you to order. But that's not the big news tonight. Jesse, the big news tonight is that we're doing a live show in Athens Friday night. And by live show, I do not mean on the YouTube channel. I mean, a live show, it's a ticketed event. It is completely closed to media and it's just us and maybe a surprise guest or two hanging out. The big news is tickets are on sale as we speak right now. So there's your QR code or you can go to patestatematerial.com. I would bet a lot of money that this sells out before our show is over tonight. So it's limited. It's first come, first serve over there. You gotta go snatch these up right now. That's all I can do. I told people that we're going on sale during the show tonight. That's all I can do. If there's a million times more digital intelligence than there is biological intelligence, it's hard to imagine humans being in control in that scenario. I'm Walter Isaacson, host of the new podcast, The Builders. Right now, we're living through an AI arms race. So I went directly to the people shaping that future. Elon Musk, Derio Amade, Alex Carr, Feifei Lee, Palmer Lucky, because I wanted to understand what the most consequential builders believe, what they feel, and where they think this is all headed. Silicon Valley is always saying the cliché thing about the way to predict the future is to create it. Well, yeah, it's up to us. But when you say us, who's us? Is it 400 people that you know in Silicon Valley? Is it me down here in New Orleans? They're brilliant, controversial, and they're already shaping the future. The question is, who's imagination do we want to live in? This is going to determine the fate of nations and economies and the future of humanity. Listen to The Builders, on the IHOT radio app Apple Podcast, or ever get your podcasts. First thing I hate about Ulysses is they never actually tell the Turks. I'm Dave, and I've been a **** for my life. A year later, he convinced me to make a podcast with him. This podcast. Okay, so here we go. We didn't know what we were doing, so we just started recording. We discussed cancer since the radiation I lost about 10 more pounds. We fought. Yeah, pisses me off. And we talked openly about the fact that David was going to die. I am afraid of being forgotten. My brother David is the story of the last chapter of my brother's life. It's weird and messy and vulnerable, and I'm going to share all of it with you. The constant back and forth battle about how do I, how do I not just be alive, but I should live. Listen to my brother David on the IHOT radio app Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What really drives the global economy? The big take podcast from Bloomberg News goes beyond the headlines to bring you reliable data-driven journalism. Are we at a crisis moment when it comes to bond yields? In the US, no, in the case of France, very imminent signs of a potential crisis. We follow the money, the power, and the policy. I don't think I have ever in my journalistic career confronted a journalistic subject that was genuinely secretive the way Jane Street was from global markets and political shifts. When Zelensky was on the phone with the president, the president just kept saying diesel, diesel, diesel. The unexpected industries quietly changing the world. Most of what billion dollars worth of Romantic books were sold in the US last year. One essential story, 15 minutes every weekday. We're just like swinging between fear and greed every day based on the latest headline, you know. Where are we today? Fear? My play is fear, I play greed. Listen to the big take on the IHOT radio app Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Continue. Two well breaches for luck, third one. Texas at LSU is going to be a very, very dramatic game. Saturday 7/30 Eastern kick on ABC, it is the quick trip game of the week. Crispy snacks there. I talked to Quick Trip Joe earlier today. We had a nice conversation, a crispy conversation. Not as crispy as the chicken tenders or waffle fries at Quick Trip per se. Not as energizing as the cold brew on tap at Quick Brew, but quick trip, but great and nonetheless. Anyway, this is a true do-or-die spot for LSU. That's the brakes after you lose Alabama last week and you lost to Kentucky and you lost to Ole Miss. LSU is looking to avoid back-to-back home losses for the first time since 2016. 4 wins vs AP Top 25 teams, LSU is lost their last five games against AP Top 25 teams. That predates Lane Kiffin. So why would LSU possibly feel good about this game? Well, firstly, they're favored by three and a half or four and a half. That number moved today. But let's ignore point spread for a second. We'll get back to that. Why theoretically would they feel good? Well, they're excellent at getting pressure and we've seen Texas struggle with it. And this is going to be a really, really, really tough environment for Texas to come into. We got the fabled night game in Death Valley here, 2/30 kickoff last week, 6/30 central time kickoff for this. So they can get after the pass or they got after Keelon Russell last week. It's just he has supreme escape ability. Texas is 124th offensively and sax allowed. Make no mistake. That problem, that vulnerability is still there. And that offense has been known to bog down and grind to a halt when you're consistently getting pressure. And another thing, LSU is very good at limiting explosive and cat buster pass plays. They are top 25 in passes of 20 plus and 40 plus yards allowed. Now here's the counter to that Texas went in and beat Missouri and and arch had his best passing game of the year to me without a cat buster pass last week. But Missouri's past defense is 105th in the country, LSU is 17th. So the environment is tougher. The secondary that you're facing is tougher. The overall caliber of athlete defensively is tougher. A little bit different challenge in last week. Jesse, why should Texas feel good? Well, they may be about to get after 11. Alabama did last week and I thought there was a point in that game. There was a lute met hit in that game. I don't think Levitt was the same after that. And they can force him into some bad spots early. Texas is number two in the country and takeaways. So they can, I mean, they've been winning games defensively anyway. But if you're if you're coming off what you saw last week, like Levitt, when they got down into the red zone, they stalled, but also, I mean, Alabama hit him a couple of times. And I promise you that's one of the first things Texas had to have noticed on the rewatch, on the tape of this is, ooh, look at him, look at him after that hit. You know, the way he, the way he carried himself pocket presence or lack thereof, how quick he may be to bail. All that matters in this game here, it could be a repeat of last week, Texas red zone defense is eighth in the country, text and LSU offensively in the sixties. We saw what happened last week. Okay, it's very much in the cards that LSU can move the ball between the twenties and then Texas does the same thing to him, Alabama did last week. You got Death Valley at night here. I don't feel great about either ground game. I think it's a staff game. I think it's a roster game. I mean, this is one of those few where you guys recruit against each other, you portal against each other, you hire against each other. But ultimately, it's going to be a quarterback game, very, very easy to see coming here. So the fan dual number right now is LSU minus four and a half model agrees to the number. Got LSU minus four. and a half. I picked against Texas last week. A lot of people did. We were wrong. And I'm going to pick against him again here. I just don't have LSU being eliminated this early. I've got LSU winning the game. I guess I'll take him to cover. Don't feel great about that, but I guess I'll take him to cover. I just think somehow LSU finds a way here. And that means that they exit this game as being alive. Texas exit this game being alive. Everybody's alive, Jesse. Everybody's alive. Courtyard. Been having a lot of fun with him. We've been on the road. We've been digitally ripping packs. We did it at the live show the other night. Press right before we opened the gates to the crowd. So Courtyard, a lot of you already know what it is, but if you don't know what it is, you can get vaulted graded cards. You can have them digitized so you can trade instantly worldwide. This is not just domestic without having to pack them up and ship the collectibles every time it changes hands. Now, when you're ready, like we open packs all the time, I got packs sitting right there in my little digital vault right now. At any time, I can redeem that item for shipping, Courtyard burns the corresponding digital token as part of that redemption process. What did we open the other night? We opened a Joe Burrow right there on stage the other night. We thought it was going to be either a Notre Dame or a Miami player because we misunderstood which pack we were opening with. Press says Joe Burrow played for Notre Dame. No, press, he did not, but he is a very, very notable football player and it was a notable card. Pokemon, sports, comics, coins, watches, sneakers. You can open anything and everything over there. So, download the Courtyard app two day. You can have some fun with us. I had to clear the throw. It's been there since last segment. The week 11 JP poll has dropped. Tell your friends. These are not rankings. These are power ratings. These are who would be favored over who on a neutral field according to the model. I got a couple of disagreements with the model this week. The rest of the world has disagreements with the model. This in no shape form or fashion is what I think the playoff rankings should look like to be very clear. I've got UCLA 16th in power ratings. UCLA should not be outside the top 10 in regular rankings. There is a difference. All right, we all understand that. No, of course, we don't. Let's go take a look at the comment section. One of the first things a lot of you noticed is LSU is still above Alabama. So last week, Alabama was a six and a half point underdog to LSU at home. Shave two and a half or three points off of that. That is implied LSU minus three and a half on a neutral field. After last week's result, you will be not so shocked to understand that did not move our internal numbers over a field goal. In fact, it didn't move it more than about a point. Alabama jumped up, but LSU is not dropping all that much from that. That's why LSU is still a favorite. And by the way, LSU is favored by four and a half against Texas, right, Jesse? That also means Fandals Tanya right now, LSU over Texas on a neutral field. LSU is very highly thought of in power ratings world still. You're free to bet against them. You would have made money if you did last week. I already encourage you guys if you, you know, O'Robb and the chat there said you're on drugs with LSU. Brother, go bet Texas. I may. Who knows? No, I'm not, but still. Yeah, LSU, they're percentage points ahead of Alabama. There's no gap there. Next up, someone challenged me. Rose said, Josh, in your sense of reality, is there a world where you'd ever bet on Wake Forest as a favorite over Oregon? Yeah. Cause Wake Forest is good. Wake Forest is not one of those teams. Sometimes it's a little upstart engine that could. They play a really light schedule and that's how they somehow race out to a good record. For Wake Forest to be top 15 in power ratings is insane. That never happens. They are, they're a non elite roster that is still up there above Oregon right now. They're way above the likes of Oklahoma or Texas A&M. That's just wild. You guys know if you follow this mostly. Look at Ohio State. Ohio State's 10th. Ohio State's bad. They've lost three games. That's just an example of how hard it is in a power ratings model for a highly rated roster to fall all that far. For Wake Forest to be within three spots of an Ohio state is insane to be above Oregon is insane. So yes, I could easily see myself picking Wake Forest over Oregon. That is not your typical non top 50 rated roster that Wake Forest has there. It's just not next up. Someone, someone has a problem with Texas Tech. Old row guns up. No affiliation said there is no way on God's green earth. Louisville, Missouri, SMU, Duke and Houston would be favored over Texas Tech on a neutral field. I hit Fandall up. Louisville minus one versus Texas Tech. Missouri minus six versus Texas Tech. Houston, pick them versus Texas Tech. Here's where you're right. Texas Tech would be a two point favorite over SMU. Texas Tech would be a three point favorite against Duke. What does that tell you? Well, that tells you the model is higher on SMU and Duke than Fandall is and otherwise that tells you there's a lot of agreement between Fandall and the model. But yes, on God's green earth and any other planet under God's creation. There is a world where Texas Tech is an underdog to several of those teams that'd be almost a touchdown underdog to Missouri. Jesse, what part of what West Virginia hang in nearly half a hundred on them? Did people not see the other night? This is not last year's Texas Tech team. That doesn't mean they can't be good. That doesn't mean that they can't go to the big 12 title game. But I don't know what more people need to see. Next up, yes, Ohio State being at 10 is a little weird. Pat Rick, one word, two words, one name, two names. He said apparently the model didn't see this week. Sarah McLaughlin, we got to get Sarah's name right. It's not McLaughlin. She did not place center at Ohio State a couple of years ago. It's McLaughlin. Sarah McLaughlin. Yes, Ohio State was one part of a co-ceremagLaughlin special this week. And yes, the model still has them at 10. Do I think Ohio State's too high? Yes, I do. There are some teams here that if I were getting points with against Ohio State on a neutral field, I would take. I'm going to be honest with you. If I got Lenora Sellers against Ohio State right now, I'd love it. I would love it. I just got Oregon in Columbus and Oregon ran the score up on him. So I agree with you. I agree. Next up, BSU Tommy said, "Please don't waste time on Notre Dame tonight. We know sorry for yelling," he said. Well, Tommy, I got bad news, my friend, because I waited through the Twitter replies and it was just a bunch of this right here. So earmuffs, Michael hit us and said Notre Dame's too low. Mind you, Notre Dame's number two in the country, people. Notre Dame's too low. They just wall up to the number one team in the country. They won by a touchdown in a game that was much further than the scoreboard indicated. Elijah Lofton had the game tied in his hands in the fourth quarter. And my man is sitting here talking about hanging a 50 burger on Miami. He said, "George is the benefactor of the easiest SEC schedule to date. This is a Notre Dame fan looking you in your eyes, questioning someone else's a strength of schedule." He continues, "And they have yet to impress me." Georgia has not impressed Michael. They just, George, it's not doing it for Michael. So he said Notre Dame is by far the best team. Michael, I don't know how to tell you this. No, they're not. That's not even the model speaking. That's just me. I'm very high on Notre Dame, obviously. But first off, there's no world where they wall up to Miami. There's no world where Georgia's unimpressive. There's no world where this tweet should exist. So Notre Dame is way high up there at number two. And Michael, I don't think I need to tell you, maybe I do. The rest of the world looks at this and thinks it's insane Notre Dame is as high as they are. I've come to the conclusion we cannot win with Notre Dame. We can't. Power ratings credentials, we can't win with Notre Dame. You can win with lovable. Lovable is one of our new best friends because we have made a lot of valuable in-house tools here with lovable. So lovable, if you have the objective of creating something like you got an idea, a concept in your mind, and you want to bring it to life, that's how you do it. You at lovable.com, you just describe what you want in plain language, and they plan, design, build, and iterate with you. And then here's the best part. When you launch it, they take care of all the backend infrastructure. So we wanted an interactive JP poll. We wanted an interactive mood tracker. We wanted interactive depth charts. That's just what we wanted. And so we built them. You may want something to track your financial portfolio. I don't care. You may want something to help you dietarily. Is that a word? Dietarily? Anything and everything. Any idea that you have? Lovable can help you with it. I go to lovable.com to start building today. A couple of more game breakdowns here. And also this Michigan cow-winning ham things are bad. I hate people who stack papers consistently on air. It's constantly like that. It's just nervous energy. But I am nervous for Michigan. We're not talking about Michigan yet. That's what it's. what brought that on. USC's got their shot this Saturday. They're going to Indiana. CBS must be doing cartwheels for the lineup of games they've gotten this year. Does it, Jesse, does it not feel to you like they've had a better lineup than Fox has had? Even the Fox is supposed to have like pole position for big 10 games. This is the fan dual game of the week. USC, but they're seven and a half point dog on the road to a team that supposedly doesn't have a quarterback. So they're both off a bike. The last time USC traveled this far east Wisconsin happened, but that's a distant memory now because they beat Ohio State Luke Fahey, something that is proving to be a lot easier to do than we knew at the time. But nevertheless, this is a fork in the road moment for USC because forget about all the mockery, forget about all their sarcasm. If they win this game, they are two wins away from a playoff spot. That's all that matters. That is all that matters here. Indiana back to back overtime games in their last two big 10 contests. Last time we saw them. It was the Michigan game. Michigan is God awful. And Indiana got taken to overtime. Minnesota, Bradley, you know the drill. Go to camera two for a second. Minnesota owns Floyd. They do own that, but they don't own much else. And yet they took Indiana to overtime. So Indiana has not been getting margin on anyone this year. So why should I feel good about them? Well, this is a Brian Haynes game. That's why all the quarterback questions, all the lack of offensive explosivity aside that defense is what I need it to be. And even against Ohio State, most of Jaden Mayava's yardage was after the catch. And I just straight up don't think you're getting a ton of yak yardage against Indiana. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Go prove me wrong. But I don't think it looks like that against Indiana. And no one has run it on Indiana. So I don't really expect that to start here. It's the best defensive front that USC will have faced by far. And I've still got Charlie Becker. I've still got Marsh. That's the best one to combo receiver that USC will have faced. But why would I feel good about USC? Well, firstly, you got to have a guy to get the ball to those dudes because they've been on the field all year, right, Jesse? And it's been really, really tough consistently getting the ball to him. And that's with Becker not dropping a single ball all year, which is still one of the wildest stats. Did that change? Or has he still not dropped a ball in his career? And like, that's not neat. That's not supposed to happen in video games. So anyway, here's the thing. USC, uh, hold on. Let me, let me tell you my, my source on this paper on paper. USC can hold up enough against the run that unless a miracle has happened for Indiana, their offense had cratered. Uh, Josh Hoover got benched and they brought in, they brought in the backup. And we don't know cause Kurt Signetti is not being cooperative and he is not letting us know who he's going to start at quarterback, but their offense had cratered. So like even USC would look at this situation and say, we can have some success against that. Last four games, Indiana, 20 points, 15 points, 13 and 23 and the 13 and 23 came in an overtime format, overtime, overtime games, 103 restaurants per game in their last four games. So they're a different matchup when they can't pull away. And if they do it here, fine, they came out of the by week. They got stuff figured out. I can't blindly know that's going to happen, which means USC should be able to hang in this game. Maybe USC grabs an early lead and it's really uncomfortable, but you get me a couple of explosive plays. I got Bowman. I got Mosley. I got freshman that are rapidly turning into some of the best players in the country. I got the quarterback to get it to him as long as he's not under harassment all day. The high in this game, Jesse in the mid 40s. So I, I mean, I can't imagine how many layers that you've got to wear. You know, I make fun of people that are from warm weather. That's where I choose to live if I can. But yeah, you got to go to Indiana. It could be a lot worse than this. Like if I'm Lincoln Riley, I'm happy it's only in the mid 40s. You just know Indiana feels a certain way about USC. You know the identity, the stereotype of USC under Lincoln Riley is soft and you've got to change the way people think because until you do an Indiana or a Wisconsin for that matter is always going to look at you and say they got more talent than us and it doesn't matter because when you go fist to face on a five star, it has the same impact as when you go fist to face on a two star. They fall down and they're knocked out and that's kind of what Indiana looks at USC and thinks they can do. And we'll worry about quarterback. We'll worry about not being able to score 35 another week. We don't need it in this game because they're not going to be able to score on us. What does fan do you think Indiana minus seven and a half the model disagrees in a big way. Models high on USC. It's got Indiana minus four. So Jesse, I feel this is going to be weird because it's one score. I feel good about Indiana here. I don't feel good about them being able to get margin on anyone. I just think they're going to have to keep winning games really, really tight. But I trust them to do that. They're very, very in tune with who they are, what they are, what they aren't. I don't have a single dime on this game. I will go Indiana to win. If you're putting the number of seven and a half on it, I'll take USC plus seven and a half. I think Indiana wins a one possession game. It's going to be fun to watch though because if USC wins that thing, the whole landscape changes for Indiana and USC, the whole landscape changes. I only want to tell you what that does to the big 10 conference title race factor. Are you hungry? I am too. We ate too early today. So if I had time, it would be unprofessional to stop the show right now. But just in theory, if everyone of the thousands of people watching right now agree to just stay here for three minutes, we could go in the kitchen and we could pop one of our factor meals of which we have many in the microwave and we'd be good. Probably couldn't eat it immediately because it would be hot. But factor, if you're on the go, if you got a busy life, I know most of you do, you think to yourself, it's just drive through food for me, that's all I got. That's my only option. No, it's not. Actually, factor meals can be available and ready for you quicker than some of these drive through lines move. Have you seen these things at lunch, Jesse? I know you have. When we go play softball, I hit that Chick-fil-A out in Smyrna. It's like 30 minutes. I can't do that. I got to go factor. Their chicken tastes better anyway. So factor, factor meals.com/pate50off. Use that code. Paid 50 off. They get you 50% off and one free breakfast item per box for one year while supplies last. Paid 50 off at factor meals.com. See the website for more details. Elon Musk, Derio Amade, Alex Carp, Feifei Leap, Almar Lucky, because I wanted to understand what the most consequential builders believe, what they feel, and where they think this is all headed. Listen to The Builders, on the iHeart Radio App, Apple Podcast, or ever get your podcast. The first thing I hate about Ulysses is they never actually tell the Turks. In October 2021, my brother, David, was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. This podcast, okay, so here we go. We discussed cancer, since the radiation I lost about 10 more pounds. We fought, yeah, pisses me off. My brother, David, is the story of the last chapter of my brother's life. It's weird, and messy, and vulnerable, and I'm going to share all of it with you. The constant back and forth battle about how do I, how do I not just be alive, but actually live? Listen to my brother, David, on the iHeart Radio App, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The big tick podcast from Bloomberg News is your home for reliable data-driven journalism. In the US, no. In the case of France, very imminent signs of a potential crisis. Because when you want to understand the forces moving markets, shaping governments, and driving the global economy, - You go to the experts. - I don't think I have ever in my journalistic career confronted a journalistic subject that was genuinely secretive the way Jane Sheet was. - When Zelensky was on the phone with the president, the president just kept saying diesel, diesel, diesel. - Markets, politics, award-winning investigations, plus the unexpected industries, quietly changing the world. - Close to a billion dollars worth of Romantic books were sold in the US last year. - We're just like swinging between fear and greed every day based on the latest headline, you know. - Where are we today? - My place fear I play greed. (laughing) - Think of it as the NBA you don't have to pay for. Listen to the big take wherever you get your podcasts. - Okay, let's get uncomfortable here. Thomas asked me how are you the one who preaches patience with all these coaches, but you're ready to say it's done with Kyle Winningham at Michigan. Cause it's done. It's done. I am the one that always preaches patience, but this is dead. This is a dead situation. There is no amount of patience that unspoils food. Like if you've got something in the fridge past its expiration date, it's not unspoiling. This is just spoiled, it's done. Consider the expiration date yesterday. It will never get better. You've got to cut your losses and move on. Jesse, you've done this show with me. Have I ever talked about a situation like this? I never do. I haven't seen one like this. It is toxic. It is a very, very poor fit. There's zero connection between Kyle Winningham and that program. I doubt any of those players feel like they've got a strong connection with him. The team is terrible. The team is regressed. You're paying a ton of money for this product. The development piece has been non-existent. There is zero indication. He even wants to be there. It's just bad. By the way, if Kyle Winningham was trying to get terminated, I'm asking you a serious question. How would he be doing anything different than what he's doing right now? Couple of examples for you. So the other day, after the game, after they lose to Michigan State, despite two in six beat to death Michigan State, not scoring a touchdown, Winningham takes the podium and he keeps on getting rubbed the wrong way by people up there being bothered that he hasn't embraced the tradition of Michigan. And he's gone out of his way to make snide remarks about it. And he did it in the post-game press conference. They got a thing up there they do. They play for trophies. I love it. In the big 10 Michigan amongst other teams, they play for different trophies. Long time rivalries that have been around longer than Kyle Winningham's been alive, they've got names, they've got trophies and he's been rubbed the wrong way so much that people insist he meets the minimum baseline of understanding the standards and traditions of Michigan. This was him after one of the more embarrassing losses in the history of that program. Well, they're competitive. And if you're a competitive guy, then you want to continue to compete and be a part of it and finish out. And so the players that we have in this program are very prideful, they're hurt right now. And that's my job as a coach to rally them back up and get them ready to compete for these last three games. And I don't know, is there any more trophies in these last three games? I don't think there's any more trophies, but anyway. - I'm told they're gonna play Ohio State. I don't know, who knows who we play, who knows who the last three games are. And then on the heels of that, that stuff matters in college football. If you don't want to embrace it, don't take the job. It's the Michigan job. It's one of the best jobs in college football and to bristle at, you know, being paid $8 million a year in folks demanding you, oh, I don't know, embrace all aspects of the program. It really rubs me the wrong way. And I'm not a Michigan dude. I'm just in here watching this. So then today, they're gonna go to Eugene and play Oregon this week. And he was talking about the challenge that they're presented this week. Listen to this, quote, Kyle Winningham is talking about landing here, quote, outstanding football coach, defensive minded coach. He really does a great job recruiting. It doesn't hurt that you have 50 plus a million at your disposal, too, in essence, outbid everybody. Well, not everybody, but a lot of people. But that's not in his fault, that's a credit. I mean, that's a credit to their program and their dedication and desire to win and support they have as opposed to what? As opposed to what you have? Brother, you got a quarterback on your bench being paid more than some teams pay their entire roster. Does anyone in the right mind think Michigan's hurting for resources? Does anyone in the right mind think that that roster is underpaid or that that roster is untalented? So I'm gonna ask again, if you were trying to get terminated, what would you do different than just kind of existing like a zombie on the sideline during games? I mean, he went to midfield with his headset still on after last game. I don't see him interact with anyone. I don't see him even talking to anyone during the games, but I'm also asking, what would you do different if you were trying to get terminated? I'll tell you what I would do. I'd piss on your tradition. I would let you know I don't care. I would let you know I'm above all that. I would appear checked out at all times. I wouldn't make an effort to inject myself into the community. I'd rent, I wouldn't buy. I also would take shots. I would build up other programs. And I would glorify the status of other coaches at the expense of, I don't know whatever it is, I think I'm inheriting. So they've got three more games. At Oregon, UCLA, at Ohio State. They'll probably lose all three of them. Even if they don't, I think there's zero percent chance he's back next year. You can't let that continue. There is no world where this gets better. I think everyone up there knows it. I think Kyle Winningham knows it. I don't, honestly, the dynamics of what went into him being hired, I think we'll be shared in another time. I think a lot of Michigan fans are kind of familiar with that, but they want to Kaelin to bore bad. And they weren't getting him. And they went after a few other guys. I think that job was Dillingham's to have if he wanted it. I don't think that he was, well, obviously he didn't leave. So he wasn't leaving for it. And I think that when you had still have, by the way, the churn of not having an AD, you had the whole thing with the president. It's just tough to make a move. I think he wants his buyout. I think, Michigan's not sitting there on the hook for some massive buyout. Like they're not FSU post-jumbo. Or they're not A&M post-jumbo, man, a lot of folks post-jumbo. I meant, I meant A&M, not FSU. They're not on the hook for anything. They print money, too. Oh, I get sucks. You got to bite the bullet. No one wants to be paying someone not to coach, but do you want to win? Because you can't do both. You can either keep them, or you can have a shot at winning. You can't do both. Let's talk about fan doing. Let's get out of here. The pick them contest. Let's tell you how that went this week. 152 of you went 10 for 10. That means 152 of you took home $3,289 each in bonus bets. Every week, we're doing this. Every week, you should be entering this. It's free. You don't even have to have a penny in your account to be doing this. It's like, if you woke up this morning, you should be entering this. You go to fandall.com/joshpate to sign up if you don't have an account already. And there's a pick them contest. I think it shows up every Wednesday. You'll pick against me and Will and Taylor. There's been someone that's gone 10 for 10 every week. So a group of you will go 10 for 10. If you're in that group, you're going to win a share of $500,000 in prizes every week. So this week is no different than every other week. Must be 21-plus in present in select states for Kansas, in affiliation with Kansas, Starkisino, or 18-plus in present in DC. First, on my real money wager only, $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets, which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandool.com. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER, or visit fandool.com/rg. Call 1-888-789777, or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. Or visit ndgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org, or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts, or call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY, or text HOPE-NY in New York. I will tell you for the ramen noodle express, before we get out of here. We're on Southern Miss, plus 17 and a half. And I am also going to add Illinois, plus 10 and a half. Model thinks a few too many points being given to the ally and I as they face UCLA. So Southern Miss, plus 17 and a half, Illinois, plus 10 and a half. If you're watching the show live, just remember, we're about to sign off to go watch the Playoff Rankings review. I will upload a separate video in reaction to that in like 30 minutes to an hour. So you can check the channel for that. Other than that, I appreciate you guys. Make sure you're subscribed to the channel. If you haven't already, for director Bradley, producer Jesse, I'm Josh Payt. Take care. We'll see you Thursday, until then, God bless. I want directly to the people shaping that future, Elon Musk, Derio Amadei, Alex Carp, Feifei Leap, all more lucky because I wanted to understand what the most consequential builders believe, what they feel, and where they think this is all headed. Listen to the builders on the I Heart Radio app Apple Podcast or ever get your podcasts. I'm Dave and I've been through my life. This podcast. Okay, so here we go. We fought, and we talked openly about the fact that David was going to die. The constant back and forth battle about how do I not just be alive, but actually live. Listen to my brother David on the I Heart Radio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. The big tech podcast from Bloomberg News is your home for reliable data-driven journalism. In the U.S. no. Because when you want to understand the forces moving markets, shaping governments and driving the global economy, you go to the experts. I don't think I have ever in my journalistic career confronted a journalistic subject that was genuinely secretive the way Jane Street was. Markets, politics, award-winning investigations, plus the unexpected industries, quietly changing the world. Close to a billion dollars worth of Romantic books were sold in the U.S. last year. Where are we today? My play is fear. I play greed. Think of it as the NBA you don't have to pay for. College football playoff rankings just released. I mean, the thing that jumps out by a mile to me is the respect for the big 12th this year from that committee is wild. Like you could, I wouldn't even say reasonably. Just if you have eyes, you've got to make the argument, the big 12 and the big 10 have like totally been inverted reputationally. For this year, I'm not saying for the future, but for this year, the reputation of the big 10 and the big 12, they're just totally inverted. Like if I were to tell you a conference is going to have the number two, number 10, number 12, number 14 team. And then the other one's going to be struggling like Houston right now. A two lost Houston is four spots ahead of two lost USC. Just to give you an idea head to head about how those conferences are being judged. And so the crazier part of all that is if I were to go back a couple of years and tell you two big 10 teams are going to be top 10 and it's going to be UCLA and Indiana. That's alternate universe stuff. Okay, so here's what I'm trying to figure out now. You kept on doing the scenarios in your mind like how many teams could the big 12 get in as a spoiler, buddy. They're the number two conference in the country right now. It's SEC and big 12 and then it's big 10, number three and we're asking about Wake Forest and whatnot with the ACC, but look at Brigham Young at number 10. You kind of got to start having these conversations. There aren't several weeks left. Just three weeks of games left. I have to start asking myself, all right, with all these scenarios we've run in our head might Brigham Young just to be sitting there thinking to themselves, I'm okay if Texas Tech wins out. I'm okay with them going to the conference title game and playing Utah because I think I can get myself in that large bid. I don't know that I would have been guessing that a couple of weeks ago. That's where my head's at right now. I don't know how you look at these rankings and think anything other than that. Utah's sitting there. I do think Houston may be a little bit capped. I think Houston may need some chaos to happen, but just the fact that they're up at number 14 is pretty crazy. The Alabama Tennessee thing, that was one of the big controversies. To be honest with you, I did not think Tennessee was going to work themselves high enough in this group of rankings to get in that same pod with Alabama. I know a lot of people have problems with the pods and how they talk about it. I think it makes sense. From a logical standpoint, the way that they choose to do that makes sense because we talked about this last week. If you just swear you're going to go off head to head no matter what, you get yourself in a mess really quick because then all of a sudden you have a team that otherwise would have been 16 who happened to beat the number 17 in the country. What do you do? 16 to 5 just because there's a head to head. You've got to have some other criteria in their head to head should matter a whole lot, but those teams have to be close enough to be comparable. What they're saying last week and still this week is Tennessee's not there. Here was my belief. My belief was it's a moot point because Tennessee's got enough valuable games still coming up. If they just went out, they'll eventually elevate themselves high enough to where they will be put in the same comparable pod with Alabama at which point they'll jump Alabama. I do stand by the ladder point there. If at any point Tennessee gets into the same pod as Alabama, 1000 percent Tennessee will be above Alabama as they should because they beat him in a game. I do wonder what does Tennessee need to have happen? They still got LSU. That's their marquee game they still have left is they're still going to play LSU next week. We don't know if LSU is going to be a three-loss team or a four-loss team. Here is what I'm wondering. Okay, with Alabama 3 and Tennessee at number 8, Alabama is probably as high reputationally as they can go right now. Certainly Georgia could lose or Utah could lose and Alabama could bump up by default, but Alabama themselves, like they're done with their quality wins. They got Vandy, UT, Chattanooga and Auburn left. The best they can do is tread water right now. They're in a great position. Tennessee can jump though. Here's my question. Do they need Miami to lose? Or would a Tennessee win over LSU be enough to vault them over, let's say, a Miami? We know that Tennessee is not going to probably jump past Texas because Texas has a head to head. Now, here's what could happen. What could happen is Texas could go beat LSU this weekend and then Tennessee's win over LSU doesn't look as good anyway. Jesse, there's a chance that if Texas beats LSU, LSU drops out of the top 25. And that would be a nightmare for Tennessee because you go beat LSU and you beat a tough opponent, but you don't get credit for that fabled top 25 win, which by the way is insane. The way we talk about that, like Oklahoma State, if I beat them right now, I'd get credit. But whoever's number 26, entirely different category of win because they're not ranked, but I digress. They're not going to do anything about that. Anyway, do they need to jump Notre Dame? Can they jump Notre Dame? Do they need UCLA to lose a game or can they jump them? There's already one two-loss team in the SEC above undefeated UCLA. Theoretically, I guess there could be another one. So I'm not as confident, maybe as I was last week, that if Tennessee just takes care of business, it'll sort itself out. And by the way, I don't shed any tears for any of these teams who have multiple losses. It falls the way it falls for you. Like I'm not going to have a ton of problem. Now if you're both undefeated, which is impossible because there's a head to head, so someone had to lose a game, that's a different story. But I said when this thing expanded a long time ago, I'm not going to have much wailing and gnashing of teeth over this. Also, I still somehow think it'll work itself out. UCLA and Indiana got impacted very different ways by what happened last week. I know most of you, your default setting is you do not like this committee. You do not like these rankings. My default setting is I hate that the things expanding to 24 next year, there's a lot that I don't love about the committee. That doesn't mean every decision that they make is wrong. But I know that your default setting is like someone you hate. When someone you hate walks in a room, anytime they open their mouth, you're going to find a way to hate what they say. That person could say 2 plus 2 is 4 and you would find a way for 2 plus 2 to equal 5 just so you can disagree with the person you hate. You guys can hate the committee. That's fine. Not everything is conspiratorial, not everything is flawed. not everything is corrupt. Indiana was fifth last week or sixth. They're fourth, Indiana was fourth last week. They didn't play, they dropped five spots to nine and everyone lost their mind. I expected that so I didn't lose my mind and the reason I expected it is guys, just because you don't play a game does not mean your resume doesn't change. And Indiana just had the worst confluence of events possible happened to them while they were off. Northwestern lost, Nebraska lost, Ohio state lost, Michigan lost, Minnesota lost. That's what makes up the crux of Indiana's resume. So their loss to Ohio state doesn't look as good anymore. But also their wins over Northwestern, Nebraska, Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana doesn't have a bunch of high quality wins. This is what they were hanging their hat on. All of those games deflated in value. It makes sense why Indiana dropped is what I'm saying. You don't have to play a game for your resume to change and conversely UCLA jumped up. Why do UCLA jump up? Well, first off, they played a game and they won. But I mean, they beat Minnesota. Minnesota is not a marquee opponent. UCLA didn't jump up just cause they beat Minnesota. They jumped up because they beat Minnesota, but also the Oregon win continues to look better and better. Michigan state is nothing to write home about, but that was a win they had that increased in value. So there were things that happened to those resumes above and beyond what you did on the field, or in Indiana's case, you didn't do anything on the field, that impacted it. It's explainable. You don't have to think everyone's out to get you all the time. There's plenty to pick a part with this thing. I actually don't believe the Indiana part was. Here's the thing that concerns me about Indiana. Jesse, I think if they lose this weekend, they need help to get in. I'm not sure a two loss Indiana is making it in. I do not have the big 10 conference championship scenarios baked into my mind off the top of my head. But if Indiana loses this weekend to USC, they are a two loss big 10 team who would not have the tiebreaker over USC, USC plays UCLA. Could USC and UCLA play twice? It's just starting to dawn on me that that could happen. That thing that we've talked about in the NFL, where you play someone the last week of the year, then you could play him in the conference title game and the playoffs and whatnot. Jesse, am I missing something there? That could happen, right? UCLA's got the tiebreaker over Oregon. Oregon's got the tiebreaker over USC. Oregon could muddy it up. Or Kyle Winningham could literally come back from the dead and beat Oregon this weekend. And that would throw everything into chaos. Yeah, how about that? And by the way, what a world for the big 10, where two thirds, really three fourths of your chaos scenario involve teams that can see the Pacific Ocean out their window. Like you guys have dropped above fantastically this year. By the way, if you're watching, like I know a lot of you are new to our channel and this just gets thrown in your algorithm. This is a fraction of what we do all year, but we talk college football all year. So I just ask you guys, keep the channel free, support us, just subscribe to the channel. That's all you got to do. It's free, it doesn't cost you anything, it doesn't sign you up for anything, but it does help us keep doing this. And we love it. We actually do love college football, believe it or not. Which of the lowest ranked teams are still alive? Do you think? We were looking at it right before we started recording. I think I would draw the line at 22. And I'm not saying everybody above 22 is alive. I'm saying the lowest ranked team that I think theoretically could make the playoff is Missouri. And that's only because Missouri still has to play number one on the road this weekend. If Missouri beat Georgia on the road this weekend, they would rock it, ship up. And then they would still have a game against Kentucky, right, Jesse? So they've still got number one and number 11 left on the schedule. That's why I say going into last week. Even if Missouri loses to Texas, they could still make it in. I still believe that LSU is still alive. They're number 21. I don't think Ohio State's alive at 20. I don't think Ole Miss is alive at 19. And I go back to Ohio State. You guys may be able to throw some mathematical scenarios at me. Nobody in Ohio State's fan base thinks they're alive. Nobody in Ohio State's building thinks they're alive. So that's why I'm saying they're dead. I think Ole Miss is dead because I think they're capped. I mean, what do they have left, Jesse? They got Mississippi State wafered. Someone else, Oklahoma? Yeah, I just don't know. I don't know what would have to happen for them to get in there. USC's fine. If USC wins out, they go to number nine this week. They've got number four. They still got two top 10 opponents left. So USC's fine. They're very much alive. Who's that at number 17? Is that South Carolina, I see? At number 17, we'll welcome to Krovenber, everyone. You best start believing in Krovenber. You're in one. South Carolina goes to visit Northwest Arkansas this week. You won't watch the game. They'll somehow squeak by Arkansas. And then they'll come home to face number one, Georgia. Pending the Missouri game. We'll see where they're ranked. South Carolina, over the next couple of weeks, will either be history or make history. It's up to them, it's entirely up to them. Oregon is alive. They have gotten themselves back in this thing. They've still got a chance at the big 10 title. Iowa is just sitting there, Jesse. I projected Iowa in my playoff this past week. So I think Iowa is very sneakily alive. I think Houston needs chaos to happen. I think Wake Forest at 13 feels capped, but it's not sure. It's not certain. They've got SMU this week. Here's the problem. The committee does not let you know where teams are ranked past 25. So we don't know where SMU is. They could be 26. They could be 38. I don't know what value beating SMU is going to carry. OK, so I don't know how high that they would jump because of that. Outside of that, I think they need to win the ACC to make the playoff. If I had to guess right now, I think Wake needs to win the ACC to make the playoff, because here's your problem. I know you could look at it and work the scenarios in your head. And you could say, OK, if Wake wins this weekend, they certainly won't drop, right? I mean, SMU is a solid win at that. So they won't drop. And even if they just win out, but their only loss is regular season to Miami. And then in the ACC championship game against Miami, I know you're thinking to yourself, Josh, this doesn't happen in a vacuum. Some teams above Wake Forest are going to lose, right? So just by the process of not losing games, they may have some teams dropped beneath them. You are correct about that. But for every possibility that that happens, you also have to factor in the possibility. Someone behind Wake could be winning and potentially jumping over them. That's why I think they need to win the ACC as it sits here right now. Outside of extreme chaos happening in front of them, I think they need to win the ACC. Here's how the bracket will look right now. We hit up Fandall soon as the numbers came out. Fandall Mike hit us back. Now, of course, this is not how it'll actually play out. But if this was your playoff bracket right now to give you an idea of how the point spreads would fall, Boise at Notre Dame. Notre Dame minus 23 and a half. Indiana at Tennessee, pick them. Kentucky at Texas, Texas minus 12 and a half. Bring 'em young at Miami, Miami minus 12 and a half. So the agents of chaos, I think, if you're looking at who could upset this thing disproportionately, I told you guys last summer, all roads lead to DJ lag way. And I was right in no context in which I meant it, but I was right because Baylor sits right here with three games to go. And do you know who Baylor's three remaining games are against? That would be bring 'em young at number 10. Texas, Texas, what, Jesse, number 14 or something like that? And then they go to Houston. So their three remaining games are against number 10, number 12 and number 14. Baylor is currently six and three. Who knows, Jesse? If Baylor just keeps on winning, I would love to know where Baylor's ranked right now. It could be like 35th or something. If Baylor gets wins over 10, 12 and 14, how high could Baylor jump as a three-loss team? Does Baylor have a shot? I don't think they have a shot at the big 12 title, right? Still though, DJ lag way could just bring the whole thing crumbling down. And also, let's not overlook Southern Methodist. SMU plays Wake Forest this weekend. They play number 13 this weekend at home. That line is one, by the way, or one and a half. So that figures to be a very tight game. And so SMU plays Wake Forest and then they play Notre Dame. Now here's a side question, Jesse. Can Notre Dame now afford to lose a second game? Because you have that Miami win, now firmly baked into the cake here. So we have found out exactly what kind of value that carries. It was good enough to get you up to number five. Close loss to Brigham Young. And then you jump to number five with a win over Miami. If they-- They were theoretically, I'm going to assume they're winning its Boston college. If they theoretically lost to SMU, would they fall? I don't think that fall out. Here's the question. Here's the question. What if Brigham Young suffers another loss? So that continues to lower your strength of record a little bit. I mean, what if Wake were to beat Miami? What if Miami just loses to Duke? Everyone's assuming that this is just a steadily-made runway for Miami, which it is. That doesn't mean they couldn't screw it up. Malakai Tony's not playing yet. So you're going to have to get by without him. And I mean, Mani Diaz got tape on you without him now. Like, I'm just saying, Notre Dame, those are the biggest Miami hurricane fans in the world right now. Because you're good. As long as they're good, you're good, I think. So playoff, coming down, not quite turn four, but we're approaching turn four right now. We've got three weeks left. It's going to be a wild time around here. We'll be locked in the entire time again. I appreciate you guys watching. Make sure you are subscribed to this channel. We got you every angle imaginable covered on this thing. Must be 21-plus in present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas, Starkisino or 18-plus and present in DC. First on my real money wager only, $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withrobble bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt, restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandual.com. Gambling problem? 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