CFP Prediction Game Debut + Camp Intel & Big Ten QB Rankings

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Famously fast fiber for $30 a month for five years. You cannot beat it. Terms apply. See Optimum.com for details. I've seen all this excitement in Buffalo. You know, Justin, they got the new stadium in Buffalo. We got a new NFL stadium being built right here in Nashville, and everyone gets excited about going to the new stadiums. And I'm sitting here like, man, I just want to be back in Jordan here. Like, man, I want to go back to the big house. These places were built, I don't know, long before actual civilization existed here. It's great. Parts of them are so decrepit, borderline ancient, no one even knows what technology was used to build the road locker room in Neyland Stadium. And that's just the way the college football architecture should be. We're jam-packed. We're high atop a picturesque downtown Nashville, Tennessee. It's Sunday night. It's August 9th. Countdown is real in the year of our Lord, 2026. Brand new game. We don't play games a whole lot on the show, but brand new game tonight. It is a very dangerous game. It's also an exciting game. I'll tell you about it momentarily. Got a ton of fall camp intel. I mean, just working the phone in the past 15 minutes. I got scared about doing SEC quarterback rankings tonight, so I'm shirking that until Tuesday. But we're doing Big Ten quarterback rankings tonight because, Jesse, I don't remember that going as poorly for me last year as SEC did because I didn't rank DJ Lagway as the number one preseason QB in the Big Ten. And I can't say as much for myself in the SEC. So we'll do that tonight. And there is this question about head coaches who haven't won national championships, i.e. 99% of the sport. All that plus, our good close personal enemy college football playoff expansion has reared its ugly head again. It brings me no joy, but Pate State Investigates has to dive into this. They're watching us in Evansville, Indiana, Dallas, Texas, Olympia, Washington, and Jefferson City, Tennessee, wherever you're watching, wherever you're listening, wherever you are consuming this show. Thank you. We don't take it for granted. We ask that you do one thing and one thing only, and that is subscribe to the podcast feed or to the YouTube channel because it is free and it always will be. That's two. It just helps us out. It doesn't change anything for you. You still get to show no matter what. It helps us out big time, more than you know, and we appreciate it. Thank you so much. I've never let off a show like this. We're just going to see how this goes. November 6th, 1869. Bradley wasn't even born yet. Football was born that day in New Jersey. Inexplicable fact of history, but it was born in New Jersey. Rutgers won six to four that day. Today is August 9th, 2026. It's been a little while and not a ton of innovation. We're still marking first downs with chains. We still don't have cameras right on the goal line to overturn calls, but it is time for some innovation in the of a brand new game. I know a lot of you are out there predicting. A lot of you are working out your playoff brackets. Everyone can do that. We do it too. I'm not mad at it, but you can pick your Heismans. You can pick your final four. You can pick your national champion. You can pick your conference winners. We wanted a different way to do it around here. Until one of you comes up with a better name, I would like to introduce Fatal 4 to you. Sounds like a WWF pay-per-view from the mid-90s, but it's not. It's a game that has to do with college football in 2026. You got to listen closely. Here's what you're trying to do here. I had Prez print out the rules for me, and he made a very, very handy graphic here. Here's what your goal is. You could play this one-on-one with a buddy of yours. You could play this theoretically with a hundred people, and there's strategy that has to be tailored to how big your group is. So pick a bubble of teams. Just draw a bubble. It's very easy. That's the way I did it. I'm a visual learner. All you're trying to do is make sure the teams that end up in the final four, the semifinals of the college football playoff, are in your bubble. It could be Texas and Georgia and Notre Dame and Miami, whoever it is, but if they make the final four, they better be in your bubble. You win by correctly capturing all four semifinalists with the fewest overall amount of teams in your bubble. The way you lose this game, and I'm going to get to what happens when you lose in a second, is if even one team that makes the final four is not in your group of teams in your bubble, you lose. Losing is not a good thing in this game. This isn't as simple as all shucks, shrug your shoulders, move on down the road. I think Indiana would have caught a lot of us last year. I think Indiana would have caught a fair amount of you guys last year. Not me. Absolutely not me, but a lot of you. So let's just talk this through for a second. You're thinking to yourself, okay, but what if it's a really chalky final four? What if it's Texas and Ohio State and Oregon and Miami in the final four? Everyone will have them in their bubble. Who's the loser then? That's the trick, friends. The loser is the person who had the most teams in their bubble because they played it too safe. Conversely, if one of you or multiples of you have a team that makes the final four that's outside your bubble, you all lose. This is a game that could have more than one loser. It could only have one winner. You can come up with whatever tiebreakers you want to amongst yourself. But here's the most important part. The bullet point at the very end there, if you're listening on podcast. Prizes for the winner should be significant. Very significant. I'm talking about an uncomfortable sum of money that each of you are putting into the pot. And likewise, the punishment here needs to be severe. I see some of you play fantasy football. I see some of the punishments you come up with for the loser. It needs to be that times what, Jesse? Three? Four? Five? It needs to be something you dread. This needs to be something that's scars you. Originally, we went deaf. Turns out legal tells us we can't do that, nor can we encourage you to explore that. So I cannot be any clearer. Do not make this game punishable by death. But anything short of that, you're good to go. Because what you have to do is the prize has to be significant enough where people aren't just playing not to lose. They're actively playing to win. So if me and four of you are playing and we all put like five hundred bucks a piece, I'm not comfortable just not losing. Because I'm down five hundred dollars. You get what I'm saying. So I think our entire staff is going to do this. I was just walking through what my strategy would be tonight. There is a step one that's very obvious. Step one is if you pull up the playoff odds right now, like Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Indiana, Texas, Miami, I think those teams are in everybody's bubble. Remember, this is not picking the national champ. This is not picking the two teams that will be in the national championship game. You're making sure all four of the semi-final teams in the CFP are included in your bubble. Those teams have to be in there. It is suicidal to not have at least those teams in there. To me, if I'm putting my bubble together, Texas Tech's got to be in there. Because again, it's very different having to make the national champs in there versus having to make sure all the Final Four teams are in there. Ole Miss didn't win the national title. Ole Miss didn't go to the national title game. Ole Miss went to the Final Four. And if they weren't in your bubble, and they probably wouldn't have been in some of your final four bubbles, your bubble would have popped and you would have endured who knows what the punishment would have been. That's for the future to decide. I think Texas Tech's got to be in mind, man. I think Bama, LSU, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, A&M, those teams from the SEC all have to be in mind. You can make your own decisions. I'm just telling you they're going to be in mind. I do think that we get to a spot in step two, kind of tier two of the bubble, so to speak, where we start having some difficult conversations. Okay, because this is all about ceiling outcome. If any of these teams bottom out, moot point. But I'm having to ask myself, like Tennessee, this is way different than just, hey man, you want to get bold here? You want to hot take and call Tennessee to make the final four? No, we're trying to figure out, is there a world where they possibly could make the final four? Like if Faison Brandon takes that quarterback job and that run game and that offensive line really does buy them some time for the offense to get itself in gear and defensively Jim Knowles year one just works out, like is that a world where it could happen? That's what I've got to ask myself. Or conversely, am I willing to risk whatever punishment ends up being included in this game if they're not in there? Jesse, I was on the fence about Tennessee, but I think I'm putting Tennessee in there because I'm that scared. I feel the same way with Michigan. I'm putting them in there because I'm that scared. I'm willing to leave Florida out. I'm not willing to leave Penn State out, actually. I've got to have Penn State in my bubble. You get to the Big 12, past Texas Tech. Is there anyone else? Because I'm trying to be strategic here. I'm trying to keep the bubble as small as possible, but as responsible as possible. Brigham Young, very, very slight lean no. But here's what the problem is. They could win the Big 12 and have a first round bye in the playoff. And at that point, they need to win one game and they're in the final four. I think I just taught myself into putting Brigham Young in there. Yeah, they're in my bubble. It's just tentative. I don't have to decide mine today. You just have to have your bubble decided before, well, before kickoff. Of the college football season. Like, what do we do with Washington? DeMond Williams' season is about to commence. What do we do with them? What do we do with SMU and Louisville? Number two and number three in the preseason odds in the ACC. But do we put them in our final four bubble? We're trying to win here. We're not just trying to survive. We're trying to win. And then you get down to the step three of this whole process to me, which is you've got to take a real, real fine tooth comb and you've got to search for the best. You've got to search for the chaos agents. This is the kind of team that in the modern age of college football, with how more evenly distributed the talent is, with how relatively more inexperienced the collection of players on a roster is, it kind of lends itself to an anything could happen. It's like the Kevin Garnett era of college football. And you've got to be careful that you don't just skim over some of these teams and then come December, find yourself saying, I can't believe that I didn't look at that more closely. Houston's one of those teams. I think Oklahoma State's one of those teams. Because think about yourself five years from now. In five years, is Drew Mestemaker starting on Sunday night football, leading a professional franchise and us looking and saying, man, you remember when he transferred with Morris up to Stillwater from North Texas? Man, if we knew then what we know now, we could have made a lot of money on Oklahoma State. Well, yeah, I'm trying to figure that out ahead of time. What if they're the one that just goes full lightning in a bottle this year with all those transfers from North Texas? And what if Eric Morris ends up being one of, if not the best hires in year one out of that entire hiring cycle? I'm on the fence about that. Same thing with Bob Chesney going out to UCLA. It is a very, very, very long shot, obviously, to be talking about any of these teams in the Final Four. But we're trying to also understand that theoretically, there could be a whole lot on the line here if we screw this up. Vandy, Kansas State, you think Virginia Tech maybe? I could see some people putting Virginia Tech in their bubble. TCU, Nebraska. So my tentative bubble's coming together. I think the strategy here is a little bit different if you're just going one-on-one with a buddy versus if you're playing with like 10 people. Because I kind of should have told Prez to put this on the bullet point there. The rules of this game are going to be you don't get to see anyone else's bubble until everyone submits theirs. So you don't get to look on the other dude's paper and see, oh boy, he's got like seven fewer teams than me. I need to shave some down. No, you got to do this fully blind and then everyone turns their sheet in and then, I don't know, get your graphic design department on it. So I think if you're just going one-on-one, like if it's me and Jesse just going at it, I kind of know something about his risk tolerance. I kind of know something about his knowledge of the game. And so I can maybe get in his head a little bit and know where he's going. 10 people, it's a total crapshoot. Because a couple of them are going to play it ultra safe. A couple of them are going to be really stupid. And if you have that really, really dumb, gullible, easy to take money out of the pocket of buddy, then he may spare you. Because he may just like try and roll the dice and leave Oregon out of his mind. So I think if you're just going one-on-one with a buddy I mean, those people are walking amongst us. They got driver's licenses and everything. They can vote. These people exist. The prize and the punishment though. That's what this is all about. It's not a John Grisham novel, but prize and punishment. There has to be a lot on the line on both ends of the spectrum. I'm going to keep an eye on this. We're calling it Fatal 4 because we had to come up with a name to put on the graphic, but I am in the market for a better name there. Let's roll on. Happy to have you guys in. I got to fix my screen over here. Fall camp is open for everyone. We've got a ton of Intel coming in. It's my, I won't say favorite time of year because the games are my favorite time of year, but just finding out whether what we heard for the past four or five months is real or not. I want to start at Georgia. Do you know the name Trey Shields? No, of course you don't unless you're following Georgia. So you remember back in the day, if you were born in the early eighties and you followed recruiting as a kid and as a teenager and young adult, you were born in the early eighties and you followed recruiting as a kid and as a teenager and young adult. Man, in the late nineties, early two thousands, there were several examples of players who just fell through the cracks. Their film didn't get out there. Coaches just weren't aware of them. That's not supposed to happen in the modern age, except that it happened here. So Trey Shields, I believe he was playing at Flowery Branch, which is a big time area. It's like right near Atlanta. It's where the Falcons practice. So this is a pretty populated area, pretty high level high school football. Somehow Trey Shields is 6'1", probably closer to 6'2", 190. He's a receiver there. Got very few offers. I think Kennesaw, I think a Mac school maybe, but he got on Georgia's radar. Finally got the huddle film off of the private setting. Again, this is a real story that happened. And so Georgia had a spot open up at receiver and they had a scholarship spot. And so they took him, they put him on the roster. He's a late addition. Needless to say, I mean, this is a three-star wide receiver, an afterthought. I don't think he has any other SEC offers. I don't think he was sniffed by any other SEC teams. And this dude throughout summer started to raise some eyebrows because they got him on campus and realized, holy crap, that's an SEC receiver. How is this possible? And now the fun part starts because fall camp opens and he goes from a wide receiver that was either ranked in the 100s or in practice against Georgia's defense. And with the state of Georgia's wide receiver room, remember, this is not Miami's wide receiver room. This is not Oregon's wide receiver room. This is a room that hadn't had a thousand yard receiver in a couple of decades, it feels like. I think that's a literal stat. My point is, if there's ever going to be someone come from out of nowhere to be somewhat of a factor on a top 10 team, it could happen in Georgia's receiver room. And if that's not the case, then I don't think it's going to happen. I don't think it's going to be the case. At the very least, they found some surprising quality depth in the most unlikely of places. Now, Chase Linton, that's another name over at Edge that we got to keep an eye on because the pass rush is the other thing that it came along late for Georgia last year, but it's alongside Gabe Harris, like I need that presence there. And that's a name that keeps popping. I was talking to Rusty Manziel earlier today and Chase Linton was a name I think a lot of fans who follow practice pretty feverishly have picked up on, but they need those guys to emerge. Those are needs for Georgia. But the Trey Shields story, I'm having fun following that. Interested to see where that goes. What about Miami? Didn't talk about them the other day. So Miami, I think the number one headline for anyone talking about the Canes is, oh, you know who they lose. Jesse, I think most people have gotten off the Carson Beck laws. I think most people are aware, hey, Darian Mensah, you can be an upgrade. I buy into that school of thought, by the way. So I haven't heard a lot of people make a big deal about the quarterback situation there, but certainly if you lose Reuben Bain, you lose Akeem Mesidor, everyone's attention. and just focuses right in on that pass rush with good reason. Now, we talked about a number of guys the other day that we think will greatly ease the pain of that loss. Also, like Ahmad Moten, Justin Scott, those guys are among the best defensive tackle combos in the sport, and they're still there. And then you bring in Damon Wilson, you've got Lightfoot, you've got a plethora of options there. Miami's defensive front is still the envy of most of college football, but that's not what I want to talk to you about. What I want to talk to you about is something that we said early in spring, and I kind of put a bookmark on it. And then you come back in the fall, and you start to talk to people, and sure enough, defensive back, I think, is going to be the strength of this team. They've got their top four corners back. Bryce Fitzgerald's back there. That was a freshman All-American. I think he had like half a dozen picks last year, which I didn't remember all of until I was looking back at it earlier. Today, J.J. Dunnigan's a guy who could have a role at safety. Four-star true freshman. Just the competitive depth that you find at the premier programs, that's what Miami has. And if you've ever, most of you haven't seen a Miami practice, I will tell you firsthand, the Miami practice is, it's like guys constantly terrified they're about to lose their jobs, and they practice like that. Which, you'll be told, is a bygone concept in the NIL era. Man, when you're paying guys, you pay them to, you know, you're paying them to do it. You pay them to come play. Well, no, you pay them to come play if they're the best option you have. See, once you pay a guy, you pay them. They didn't pay you. Like, they didn't buy a spot. You pay them so that you could do whatever you want to, and in this case, it's bring them in to compete. If you want to hand them a starting job, go ahead. That's not what they do at Miami. So this secondary, and it's, I mean, it's year two under Corey Heatherman anyway, that was going to be something that was positive anyway. I'm not doubting Miami's offense for a second. I actually think it could be one of the best in the sport. But if, on the random off chance they have an off day, that is a defense that can win football games. Texas, if you have internet, I know you saw it over the weekend. I know you saw the declassified CIA footage of the alien there in Austin. That's not enhanced in any way. That's just something that's not enhanced. That's just something Cam Coleman did on the practice field. Now look, if this clip were to surface in 2006, everyone would rightfully marvel at it. But this is 2026. So 70% of people who saw it marveled at it. And then you've got 15% who are saying, well, man, that's a hospital ball in the game. Yep, I don't see any defense. And then there was an unhealthy amount of people who just fixated on who threw the ball. I just assumed everyone understood that ball was tipped at the line of scrimmage. But that was not understood by everyone. So that became a freak-out fest on how Arch Manning doesn't have a tight end of spiral for some people. I just took it to mean I don't think there are like 10 other humans on the planet that I'm aware of that could make that play, make that catch, independent of whether he's ever going to do it in a game. Cam Coleman's a stud, and I think he'll stand out this year for them. That's not breaking news. But it's kind of masking, to me, the bigger story. Number one, offensively, that's, hey, Ryan, Wingo's still there. I haven't heard his name much because everyone's focused on Cam Coleman, rightfully so. But that's still not the point I'm trying to make. The point I'm trying to make is this defensive line could be hellacious, and no one's talking about defense. Texas fans may be, but everyone outside of Austin's just focused on Arch Manning and focused on the passing game and added a couple of running backs from the portal, but just focused on offense mainly. Justice Terry, Lance. We already knew coming into this season about Colin Simmons, but some of these other guys, plus the interior guys that they have and the depth they have here, that plus the addition of a guy like Biles at linebacker, that Texas defense, kind of the same thing I just said about Miami, if on the off chance, offense just sputters, maybe turnover issues, and Texas has got a much tougher schedule than Miami. This is a team that can win a game in certain ways. Several different ways. That's what I believe about them. Penn State University. Jesse is. Penn State. You remember how beat up they were in spring? I think we tried to make a graphic that showed all the players that were out for Penn State. Did we have to make two graphics, I think? We had to go two pages, and that largely has rectified itself. Now, they've still got some guys out, but they got most of these guys back. Remember their situation at A. I call them DDS. Deny Dennis Sutton, because I called him Danny his whole career. But Deny Dennis Sutton gone, Chaz Coleman gone, and that was a position that we circled a lot in spring. Eziogu. Think close? I have trouble with the last names. Ikenna Eziogu. Yeah, well, that's what I'm calling him. Plus, the fact that they're rotating Caleb Bacon there a little bit shows that, number one, like, Bacon's a very versatile guy. But number two, they probably are a little bit better there than I would have thought I'd feel. I guess that's the best way to put it. Coming out of spring, I feel a lot better about them at that position right now than I thought I would feel. Long way to go. Still fall cap. But I do feel better there. And Tennessee is the other team I wanted to talk about. So, you've got the NCAA suspension thing with Arian Carter at the linebacker. Jaden Harmon, they lost him for the season with, I believe, a torn ACL. That's recent. That's within the last day. So, they've taken hits at linebacker. Now, out of all the position groups they have, if there was a group that could maybe afford to absorb those blows, maybe it's their linebacker position. But I'm looking at defensive line. Like, there's some young potential there. But defensive line. Defensive line, until further notice for Tennessee, is a mystery to me. But it's not. It's a question mark. It's not a weakness. Big difference between the two. Just unproven guys that you think can, but still need to show it. And I don't love their situation at corner either, because Ty Redman has been out with extended illness. We'll just see what that's about. Expect him back eventually. But also, Jadayus Richard, out for the year. And so, it's interesting. Sounds like a lot of negative, but I will round it out with a positive. Derek Owings, maybe you know that name, maybe you don't. Derek Owings was the head strength and conditioning guy for Indiana last year. He and a number of his team, I think the story was they flew straight from Miami to Knoxville. And were in Knoxville the morning after the national championship game. It was a huge addition. When we were there in spring, Hypo was ultra excited. I worked out in there after we sat down with Hypo, talked to Derek, talked to his staff for a little while. It was very, very obvious that they were going to have an immediate impact there. Fall camp opens. It's one of the first things the folks around Tennessee are pointing out is, wow, the new strength and conditioning team's done something. We'll see if it manifests itself and wins this fall. We move on. Good start to the show. Happy to have you with us, especially if you're watching live. As I just put in the live chat, to prove we're live, all we ask you to do is subscribe to the channel. That's all we ask you to do. I've got some unfortunate news coming up on playoff expansion. I don't know. It's not news yet because it hasn't happened. But I do owe it to you to tell you what's going on. The first thing I want to do is I want to give you a little bit of an update on our tour. So the other night, Thursday show, I announced that this year's tour was going to be a little bit different. Called the Don't Tread on Saturday tour, which is sort of a result of the buildup of the energy a lot of us have felt for, I don't know, several years in this sport, but especially the last year with all the stupid headlines we have to read and all the dumb efforts being made around this sport to try and quite literally do that, tread on the one thing that most of us love the most, which is regular season, Saturdays in the fall. I thought it was appropriate to name the tour. Don't Tread on Saturday. We announced it the other night. I've never seen such a call for merchandise. And we were going to do it anyway, guys. But when I announced it, we just got flooded. Give us flags immediately. Give us hats. Give us shirts immediately. So look, this is round one of them. And they're available at pate state material dot com right now. I don't know how many of those flags we already moved, but it does make sense since it's a play on the Gadsden flag anyway. The inspiration is a literal flag. So it does make sense. I would love to see those flags dot landscapes of tailgates all over the country this fall. But pate state material dot com right now, the Don't Tread on Saturday line has started to drop. My feel on this, and judging by our early sales, I think I'm right. My feel on this is that this is kind of a brand that will transcend just the tour. And so, like, I think this is going to be our biggest mover this year. And therefore, I. I have told Alex, there is no limit the amounts of variations that you should develop on this so i'm excited to see what the team pumps out with the discover cash back card it's payback time when you earn cash back on everyday purchases activate and earn five percent cash back at different categories each quarter on up to fifteen hundred dollars in purchases that's five percent cash back at different places each quarter like grocery stores on gas and at restaurants it pays to discover terms apply see discover.com slash five for details chat gpt can do more than answer questions it can help you get real work done chat gpt work is built for bigger projects with multiple steps you bring the goal along with the information it needs like briefs notes files feedback calendars data sets or project plans then chat gpt can help turn all of that into something useful an analysis a tracker a deck outline a prototype or a workflow you can keep shaping it can also use approved apps connected tools files and browser contexts to help move the work forward and you stay in control you give direction review drafts approve actions redirect the work and choose the final output so you spend less time sorting through busy work and more time making progress on the work that matters put chat gpt to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects get started at chat gpt.com by selecting work mode available on plus and pro plans amazon health ai presents painful thoughts why did i search the internet for answers to my cold sore problem now i'm stuck down a rabbit hole filled with images of alarmingly graphic sores in various stages of ooze i can clear my search history but i can never unsee that don't go down the rabbit hole amazon health ai gets you the right care fast health care just got less painful what it sounds like when you road trip to the iheart radio music festival in the all-new hyundai palisade hybrid wow this is really nice inside the palisade hybrid has more luxury than ever whoa this sound system is awesome turn it up more tech than ever sweet you got the available built-in dash cam and more range than ever because the palisade hybrid gets up to 600 plus miles of range on a full tank so do we ever have to stop for gas visit hyundaiusa.com or call 623144603 for more details we move on speaking of which we could not have timed the next segment any better slash worse some of you may have been paying attention earlier today you saw me tweet something out pate state investigates drops about one or two tweets per year we are famous for such things as breaking the news that conor stallions was wearing recorder glasses in central michigan attire on the sideline of a game he wasn't supposed to be at you know that sort of thing pate state investigates never misses never misses so it took some of you by surprise when earlier today i posted the following the college football playoff management committee meets tomorrow that's monday to discuss potential playoff expansion pate state investigates is hearing rumblings of a 20 team playoff format idea with play-in games featuring each p4 conference that would replace the value that they lose when they do away with conference championship games all the talk publicly has been about 16 or 24 but this has been privately cooking for a while so what i can tell you is basically what i typed there they're going to meet tomorrow they're going to talk hopefully a whole lot about staying at 12 they will also talk about 16 which has been the sec's preferred model uh the big 10 folks and many other folks big 12 acc probably they'll heavily beat the drum for 24 also this is the sort of meeting where you'll get a lot of feedback about the value potentially on a new playoff package because really you expand because you know you're going to make a ton more money on it at least that's the motivation in that room and you know greg sankey who's the sec commissioner one of his things has not been we're never going to 24 as much as i wish he'd say that but one of his stances has been let's just hold on to it for a while and then we'll see what happens next week hold on until we got all the information this is the kind of meeting where you start to get that information so you've got a group of people here that really can't help themselves is that if there's one additional dollar to be made they're going to chase it and you then you got which bothers me the most you got a bunch of ad's and coaches who have decided to fully put their support behind it not because they think it's what's best for the game because if you really got truth serum in it you're going to get a lot of money and you're going to get a lot of money it's what's best for them it provides job security everyone knows it mike elko i'll give him credit at least he stepped to the podium and told the truth at least he stepped on the podium said man yeah of course we're going to advocate for we'd advocate for a bigger playoff than 24 because it gives us job security if i finish number 28 in the country in the current landscape i may be out of a job but all the sudden not to me this is dumb logic but all the sudden if there's a 30 team playoff man is 28th i'm a playoff team i made the playoff you can't fire me again it's dumb it's not the way it should work maybe it's not even the way it will work but these people are sold enough that it'll work that way that that's what they're supporting it's very disappointing um and i've i've told several of the engaged parties here that to their face it's one of the core disagreements i have with a lot of these folks ignore that though what do what do i think because that's really all i can tell you on this show you know that i have a lot of people that are supporting me and i've told a lot of people that i have been a staunch proponent of not expanding this playoff but i also know it's august so a lot of you are coming to the table for the first time a lot of you are new to this show there may be several of you who feel the way i do that college football playoff expansion past 12 is dumb there may be others in the audience who are hardcore proponents of expanding and you can't understand people like me who don't want to expand and then there may be a healthy amount of you who are kind of on the same page with you and you can't understand people like me who don't want to be on the fence you don't really you want to see more you're undecided i just want to very calmly remind everyone why 12 is the right number in this sport for a long time 12 was too many when we went from 4 to 12 i think it's sort of dumb luck that college football morphed into a sport where 12 made sense because guys if you think about a 12 team playoff format but let portal and nil never just keep the game the way it was back in the 20 teens can you imagine how stupid 12 teams would be so i as someone who pushed back on expansion to 12 i fully come around to admitting that given the current landscape 12 makes sense now some of you may follow that logic and think well all right if you came around on that how do you not eventually come around on 24 it's impossible for me to come around on 24 because you've reached the saturation point and i'll go to an extreme that's impossible but for the sake of argument i'll go to an extreme here i'm all about value of regular season and the urgency in the regular season that's what i love the most about this sport and i'm all for maintaining that balance of urgency while also striking the balance of access 12 does that 12 gives way more access than we used to have but it also strikes that balance where you still feel urgency on these regular season games there may be a few exceptions to the rule everyone can point to ohio state a few years ago guys that i think that's an exception the vast majority of these games the pucker factor is still in full effect you feel a kind of urgency you feel a feeling in your stomach watching a regular season college football game on a fall saturday the likes of which you do not feel watching any other sport and you you may think oh what does another sport have to do with it a lot more than just a regular season game you feel a kind of urgency you feel a feeling in your stomach watching a regular season game you feel a kind of urgency you feel a feeling in your stomach you feel a kind of urgency you feel a kind of urgency you feel a feeling in your stomach and i'll show you what i mean in a second but anyway the reason i think that you'd never get me to budge past 12 being the right number is because even if you were to say for the sake of argument that we're headed to a world where 80 teams are dead even it's like the nfl and then some 80 teams start out and you can't tell the difference between them therefore you're going to get to the end of the year and you're going to have several dozen teams that could theoretically win the national championship title i still don't care nor did i care that notre dame got left out last year nor did i care that texas got left out last year whereas some people were looking at notre dame and texas getting left out last year saying boy those teams theoretically could have won it all if they made it in any playoff format that has the ability to exclude a potential title worthy team is a playoff that's too small i was looking at it saying no the exact opposite friend a playoff format that has the field that looks at a flawed team and leaves it on the outside looking in despite the fact that they may have been good enough had they made it in to win the whole thing is a playoff that is the perfect size you don't keep expanding the thing indefinitely until we get all the teams capable of winning the title in there and then five or ten more who can't win the title just because you know more meaningful games there's so many lies that get told about playoff expansion i'm not trying to talk down to supports this thing. I'm just trying to point out how, I don't know, counterintuitive a lot of this is. You may have heard people say, or you yourself may have said, if you expand to 24, you do it because it creates more meaningful games. The logic behind that, I understand. Whereas back in the day, if you're the 21st best team in the country, your last two games of the season are probably meaningless when it comes to the playoff because you're probably out of it. Well, now if there's a 2014 playoff, boy, if number 18 plays number 26, it's a whole new world. There's a whole new world of meaning on that game. As if we just created meaning, not at the expense of removing meaning. That's not the way that works. See, the way it works is you grow the playoff field to 24, and yes, technically you do add meaning to some games featuring teams that are pretty flawed, but you didn't. At the expense of removing meaning from teams that are comfortably in the top 10. See, when Texas goes and plays Texas A&M, those are teams with really, really high-level rosters, and when it's a do-or-die sort of game, and you know the winner's going to be in the playoff and maybe the loser's not, that's meaning that doesn't exist in the 2014 model. Those teams play. Ohio State and Michigan play. Georgia and Alabama, they play towards the end of the season. They're the end of the year. Understanding there's a huge safety net under this game. Both of us are going to make it. All that's going to change today is seeding, and you traded that so that you could manufacture some meaning on Minnesota versus Nebraska, and here's the great irony of it all, or the great stupidity of it all. Minnesota and Nebraska are never going to whiff a national championship. Texas may. Georgia, may. And so we're removing meaning from the games featuring the teams capable of winning it all to manufacture meaning on games featuring teams incapable of winning it all, and we're looking at that like it's a good thing. It's not a good thing. We actually stripped away the most precious commodity we have, which is urgency, on a regular season Saturday so that we can manufacture this thing and just hope everyone pretends that the playoff is the new oxygen, you know, and playoff implications. Those are the new oxygen. Don't try and breathe anything else. That's the only thing with value. Again, you may think that I'm being a little hyperbolic using that kind of language. I'm not. I'm about to show you in a second that I'm not. So that's kind of when we named this tour this year, when we named it the Don't Tread on Saturday tour this year, this is kind of what we were talking about. College football is one of one to people like us. Regular season, all Saturdays are one of one. There's nothing else like that in any sport, in any part of the world, and the danger is when you let people in the room and you give people decision-making power who either don't know what that means or they don't care what that means, you can get some really, really bad outcomes. Something happened a couple of weeks ago in Chicago that didn't get near enough attention because we were on vacation, and so we didn't have a show to highlight it, and I just didn't see this get much traction, but buddy, I wrote it down because there's no way I'm letting these soundbites pass without at least talking about them. Tony Petitti, Big Ten commissioner, who may be a wonderful person. I don't know Tony Petitti personally, so this is no shot at him. It's a big-time shot at just his ideology. Someone like Tony Petitti and someone like me, we have total different worldviews. We could not view college football through any different a prism if we tried. I want to play you some sound, and this is the first day of Big Ten media days a couple of weeks ago. This is the current Big Ten commissioner who is the driving proponent behind the 2014 playoff model, and I want you to just listen to some of the things that he had to say. Here's sound one. We have strong opinions about where the right path is. I think there's been an evolution since we were here last year about how people feel about 24 at this point, and we've made adjustments in our league. We were focused on automatic qualifiers. We're not focused on that anymore. We're looking at the committee picking the field of 24. We feel that that ultimately will still unlock the power of scheduling that we want. That's a lie. It's not a lie. It is a lie in a sense that that's not the only way to unlock the power of scheduling. See, what these people know, I'm going to circle back to it in a second, is this is really unpopular with the public, so they kind of have to gaslight you a little bit. They have to look at you and say, hey, you guys want better regular season games, right? Well, the only way to get that is to expand the playoff so people aren't scared of scheduling anymore. No, the way you get that is by making sure your rankings process properly takes strength of schedule and strength of record into account, and if the time comes where a 9-3 belongs in over an 11-1 because the 11-1 refused to schedule up, then so be it. That is how you fix your scheduling problem in lieu of expanding the thing to a point where you water down the entire regular season. He wasn't done. He was just getting started. Back to it. Even though the memo gives the SEC and the Big Ten more, you know, the operating decision-making in this process, we've really included, you know, on a daily basis our colleagues in the ACC, the Big 12, and everybody else in the CFP room. We're trying to do this together. I think there's been a lot of movement among coaches and ADs around the country that 24 is the right number, but we've got to see if it has the right value, and we've got to understand that process and how we schedule it and when. Coaches and ADs, Jesse, they're on board. One of the more shocking headlines of the modern era is that coaches and ADs, whose very job security relies on making the playoff, are all of a sudden fully on board with expanding the playoff to 24 teams, and hey, man, why stop there? Did you notice when Tony Petitti was talking about the parties that are on board with expanding the playoff, he mentioned coaches, he mentioned ADs, but there was something missing, and I couldn't quite put my finger on it, but I was asking myself, self, what's this all about? This is really all about making more money. I'm not against making more money, but this is all about increasing revenue. Why does that possibility even exist? It doesn't exist because of coaches or ADs. It exists because of massive amounts of fan interest in this sport, and because so many of you, so many of us, care and we pay attention to it, it gives it value. And because fans are really the driving force behind the value in this sport and the potentially increased revenue in this sport, wouldn't you think that there'd just be a little bit of attention paid to the customer? So Spencer McLaughlin, friend of the program from the Locked On Network, he's there at Big Ten Media Days, and he asked Tony Petitti really the only question that matters, and that's about, oh, I don't know, you and I. Spencer McLaughlin, Locked On Podcast Network. You've spoken a lot about your support for the 2014 playoff. For college football fans that value the week-to-week urgency of the regular season, can you tell them why they should be okay with a 2014 playoff? Yeah, I think for a number of reasons. I think the system of the 24 is something that we should point to. And I think when I go back and think about, you know, playoff formats and having some experience with this at MLB, even though MLB's regular season is a very different season, I totally understand the difference. I don't think you do. I don't think you do understand the difference. Because if you understand the difference, then you understand that is a playoff sport. And they play 162 regular season games that are largely irrelevant. Just show up in September, but it's a postseason sport. I'm not quite sure that Tony Petitti means what he says. Because if he understands the difference there, then what he said afterwards, I don't think would have come out of it. Come out of his mouth. But yet it did. Let's continue to listen. But the idea is, number one, keeping as many teams in contention for as long as possible. Play as many meaningful games for as long as you can. Yeah. So, still no mention of fans. And finally, it seemed like forever, finally, it got down to mentioning fans, begrudgingly. Mentioning fans. Because, you know, if you've been paying attention over the past several months as the idea of a 2014 playoff, you know, 2014 playoff has surfaced, you'll notice something starkly different than when the idea of expanding from 4 to 12 surfaced. When the idea of expanding the playoff from 4 to 12 surfaced, most of the public was on board with it. It couldn't be any more opposite. Now, the concept of expanding from 12 to 24 has been met with mass public rage. The public is super majority against it. Every poll has shown it. And so you would think at the very least, if the fan, if the fan, if the fan, if the customer is responsible for driving the revenue here and the increased interest, you'd think you'd at least want to reach out. I don't know, maybe do a focus group or two, run a poll yourself. At the very least, wouldn't you want to know what your customers had to say? Well, apparently, if you're Tony Petitti, no. Take a listen to this. While the bowl system has done great things for college football for a really long time, when you get into a playoff world like this, it takes up all the air. And so the success is defined very specifically. About the playoff. And so we've just got to, I just firmly believe we create the access. Look, I, I know there's things out there we get asked all the time. Well, this fan poll said this and this poll said that. I'm really confident that, you know, we'll fill our stadiums and we will have really large audiences watching these games if we expand. I'll translate for you. Piss on what you think. You'll take what we give you and you'll like it. That's essentially the attitude in the room. Where are you going to go? You got no other choice. That's the kind of decision maker that I'm not a fan of having in the room. Again, this is not a shot at Tony Petitti personally. I hear nothing but good things about him from a character standpoint. This is not about that. This is about worldview. This is sort of about ideology and about oil and water. Because when you're sitting here telling me, man, playoffs, everything, that's the only oxygen in the room right now. You display a fundamental lack of coherence about what makes this sport great. Whatever even made it a profitable enough venture to attract your attention to begin with. And so right now, we're sort of on the precipice of a new round of these playoff expansion negotiations coming. And it's pretty much, at least it feels like, it's pretty much the entire world on board with expanding this thing to 24 and Greg Sankey and the SEC kind of holding out, ESPN involved there, sort of maybe not wanting to go that route. But you know where my mind went there? My mind, I listened to Tony Petitti and he says, hey man, playoff, that's the only oxygen in the room right now. That's all that gives value. That's all that gives meaning. He never mentioned urgency once. He actually never talked about the value of regular season games. The only time he broached it was in acknowledging, hey, if we increase the amount of playoff spots, then that'll lead to more dynamic scheduling. And my question was, well, by that logic, why would you stop at 24? Because you're certainly not going to sell me that you stop at 24 to maintain value of regular season urgency. That's long since thrown in the blender by the time you get to 24. So by that logic, why not 30? Why not 44? Why not just go full 60? You see how it's a race to the bottom of the barrel intellectually once you start going down that road. So anyway, I don't want to get too worked up even though I am, but I've seen a lot of people go down that road. I've seen a lot of people go down that road. I've seen a lot of people go down your attitudes. A lot of your attitudes is, well, it's a foregone conclusion. Well, no, not yet. It's not because it really comes down to two parties. It comes down to the Big Ten and the SEC. And if they're not both on board, it's not a foregone conclusion at all. In fact, it's very possible we just stay at 12. And what a radical concept to adopt a new playoff format and wait more than two years to expand it. So crazy. It just might work. They're watching us in Gilbert, Arizona, Florence, Alabama, Lawrence, Kansas. Thank you guys. So much. It's really all we ask. Had a question in the old Pate State inbox here. Matt from Gary, Indiana says, is there too much hype around the top teams? Because I have yet to see Marcus Freeman, Steve Sarkeesian, Dan Lanning, and Mario Cristobal win the big one. It's been a while since I had to go to Meemaw's bucket of fortune cookie logic over here. But there's a rule, Matt, on this show, on this campus here at Pate State. And that rule is smart people sometimes say casual things. Casual people rarely say smart things. And I like to assume that when our audience swings and misses, that is a smart person who just happens to be saying a casual thing. This is a casual question. But we got time for it. I just want to know, is this really the barrier to winning? If that's the barrier, if having already won a national championship is the barrier to winning, how does anyone ever win one? More than that, Matt, how do you explain the past seven years? Because I'm looking at Orgeron, Kirby the first time, Jim Harbaugh, Ryan Day, Kurt Cignetti. As best I can tell, five of the last seven national championship teams were led by coaches who had never won a title. So it seems to me like I probably need to be looking for the guys who haven't won one because maybe they're more than likely to win one. Matt, just because you have not does not mean you cannot. So you ask, well, what's the reason for the hype around Marcus Freeman? Well, he's got a loaded team. What's the reason for the hype around Sark and Dan Lanning? Well, they got loaded teams. They're all in. All these programs are all in. What's the hype around Mario Cristobal? Well, they're a loaded team. They're a loaded team. They're a loaded team who was at midfield with less than a minute to go and a shot to win a national title last year. So I don't care if none of them have won a national title. You could say, I don't know, man. I got to see Dan Lanning win a big game. Fair enough. Maybe say the same thing about Sark. Fair enough. But Freeman and Mario just played in the last two national championship games. So what are we really talking about here? What I'm talking about is responsible hype. I mean, it's not like we're doing laser light shows in the scarlet and gray here. It's not like we're doing yellow and green banners flying all over the place. I don't think the hype's out of control at all. There's the odds market right there. FanDuel doesn't have a runaway favorite to win the national title. In fact, it's Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oregon, Texas, Georgia, Indiana, Miami kind of all lumped together. That's a wide open field. But I'll tell you my bold prediction. Leave that slider up for a second, Bradley. We do bold predictions. I'm going to do them later in the show. One of the bold predictions that I'm thinking about submitting myself so I can win a chalice of supremacy. I don't own those, Jesse. Those aren't mine. They're on the set, but I can't take those home. I don't think, can I? I don't know. We'll figure it out afterwards. Anyway, if I had to submit a bold prediction, how about this? The entire final four this year, is coaches who have never won a national title. That could be numbers two, three, four, and seven in the playoff odds. That's what that would take. Marcus Freeman in Notre Dame, Dan Lanning, Oregon, Sark in Texas, and Mario Cristobal in Miami. If I get those teams in the final four, I could guarantee that we're going to have a first-time national championship winning head coach, which would be really fun. Matt asked the question, Matt's not the only one who traffics in this logic. You hear this all the time. You get the dreaded, well, what has he won? You toss Dan Lanning a mild compliment. What has he won? What's Marcus Freeman won? I don't know. A lot of football games. The more important question here is what could they win? Not what have they won? Because again, if history was the perfect indicator towards the future, nobody would ever win a national title. We understand that logic is a we have to accept that it could happen. What I want, selfishly, is I want a final four where none of them will have won one. Because at that point, I get, how much time is there? There's like a month between the final four and the national title game these days. I get several weeks of people just having to eat it. Because I've got a collection of different opinions out there that have said varying degrees of Mario will never win the big one. Dan Lanning, Sark, Marcus Freeman, they'll never win the big one. Notre Dame, they'll never win a national title. If I could get a final four where we know someone's going to, I'd just start screenshotting left and right. I'd go check my bookmarks because I got several of them bookmarked. Most of my bookmarks are mean things people have said about me. Hate state, in other words. But there's some bookmarks out there that are about people other than me. Quick reminder, unless the rules have trophy per year. So it's possible that one of these dudes has a really good team this year and doesn't win it all because another one won it all. It's not the worst thing in the world. It is all about how many times can you land on the green? How many times can you get to the seventh rung or higher of the ladder? Because at that point, you just take your shot. You take your putt. You lurch for that belt. Maybe you'll sink it. Maybe you'll grab it. Maybe you won't. But what you can't do is you can't hit a putt when your ball's 30 yards over there in a bunker. You can't reach the belt when you're standing on the canvas, not even on the ladder. That's what you can't do. There's a lot of skill in getting yourself in close enough proximity to take your shot. That's what Ryan Day does every year virtually. That's what Kirby does every year. Saban did that every year. That's what the best ones do. There aren't many of them. Best I can tell, pretty much all these guys are in position to do that right now. I was in position last night to take part in an incredible event. Actually, two nights ago. Forgot it's Sunday now. Again, I know it's that time of year where a lot of our audience pours in. I implore you just listen to me for a couple of minutes here. A few years ago, we partnered with a charity foundation called the Magnolia Foundation. I just wanted to give you guys an update on what you've done. The other night, we go to the Country Music Hall of Fame. There was a big event, a big gala for the Magnolia Foundation. Magnolia Foundation. And several hundreds of thousands of dollars were raised. Our audience has contributed to that in a major way. And for those of you who are familiar, you know what that foundation is about. But to give you the really, really quick backstory, I just want to remind you, these people do such incredible work. March 3rd, 2020, a big tornado came through Nashville. It hit my building. I was out of my building for a week, but we escaped pretty unscathed. There were no fatalities in our apartment building. There were two across from us. And then there were a couple of dozen over in East Nashville, all the way out to Cookville. So this tornado's EF4 strength when it goes through Cookville. Matt Collins, who's a buddy of mine now, he survived. His wife survived. Their little girl did not survive. Hattie did not survive. And they had to go through what is pretty unimaginable. They had to go through the entire process of losing a child in one of the most horrific ways imaginable. And then they had to endure the cost that comes with it out of the blue. And they started the Magnolia Foundation because of that. The Magnolia Foundation is built to help cover the expenses of families who lose a child. So it's grown very quickly. And I just wanted to tell you guys, and thank you guys tonight, because our audience has given a ton to the Magnolia Foundation. So far this year, 251 families have been served in 19 different states. Another important stat that you should just be aware of, 20% of the families that they help are single mother families. And what they're doing is they're covering funeral costs. They're covering therapy. Aside from that, they're covering what is called commemorative care, which is long after your funeral and long after people have probably stopped paying attention. It's still real for you. It's still real for these families. On Christmas, on that child's birthday, on various important dates of the year, they just ship care packages. It means the world. We were listening to testimonials the other night. It means the world. So I just wanted to say a quick thank you. Of course, you could go to our store. You could go to patestatematerial.com. We have Magnolia Foundation gear in the store where the proceeds go to Magnolia Foundation. But if you just want to give, and I cannot thank our audience enough for what you've done, but if you just want to give, and I cannot thank our audience enough for what you've given over the past year, themagnoliafoundation.com. You can read up on it, full stories over there. But the event the other night was awesome. A lot of tears, but also a lot of good stories. This was the other night. Also, at the end, Jesse, I didn't tell you this. At the end, I have no idea what was happening. But at the very conclusion of the event, there was this massive firework show in downtown Nashville. I don't know what it was for. It was perfectly timed. Matt says he had nothing to do with it, but it was very, very well choreographed. So that is a quick update that I thought I owed you guys because you guys had a lot to do with that. And we're only going to become more and more involved with them in the future. We grow this show as big as we can possibly grow it to do stuff like that. That's an amazing thing that we can do because of the size of our show. It pays to discover. Terms apply. ChatGPT can do more than answer questions. It can help you get real work done. ChatGPT work is built for bigger projects with multiple steps. You bring the goal along with the information it needs. Briefs, notes, files, feedback, calendars, data sets, or project plans. Then ChatGPT can help turn all of that into something useful. An analysis, a tracker, a deck outline, a prototype, or a workflow you can keep shaping. It can also use approved apps, connected tools, files, and browser contexts to help move the work forward. And you stay in control. You give direction, review drafts, approve actions, redirect the work, and choose the final outcome. So you spend less time sorting through busy work and more time making progress on the work that matters. Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting work mode. Available on Plus and Pro plans. Now I'm stuck down a rabbit hole filled with images of, alarmingly, graphic sores in various stages of ooze. Health care just got less painful. What it sounds like when you road trip to the iHeartRadio Music Festival in the all-new Hyundai Palisade Hybrid. Wow, this is really nice inside. The Palisade Hybrid has more luxury than ever. Whoa, this sound system is. Awesome. Turn it up. More tech than ever. Sweet. You got the available built-in dash cam? And more range than ever because the Palisade Hybrid gets up to 600 plus miles of range on a full tank. So do we ever have to stop for gas? Visit HyundaiUSA.com or call 562-314-4603 for more details. All right, let's move it on. Schedule talk. We talked about the toughest schedules in the country the other night. Well, to balance it, there have to be some easy schedules. And you are right if you assume that. And we can start with Notre Dame and then I'll go around and just circle a few from different conferences. I couldn't be higher on Notre Dame. So I'm not doing the thing where I say, boy, Notre Dame can't win anything. Look at that schedule. It has nothing to do with the other. Yes, Notre Dame's schedule is pretty soft this year. They opened with Wisconsin. I think Wisconsin could be a little better than people think. But I digress. There is no stretch on this schedule. I'm not trying to sell you that Notre Dame's schedule is tough. There is one team that they play that's in the top 20 of the FanDuel playoff odds right now. And that's Miami. And they get them at home. And they play SMU at home. Their tough road game is at Brigham Young. So yeah, there's no stretch there. I think they're going to be a good team. It's just not going to be the most battle-tested of teams. And that's what the segment's about. Easy schedules. In the Big Ten, it's got to be Penn State if I were to circle one. And I'll circle two of them. But Penn State, the out-of-conference schedule is a disaster. And there is no excuse for it. Marshall, Temple, Buffalo. And then there is no Ohio State in conference. There's no Oregon. There's no Indiana. They've got a good runway early. So they don't start. It's not a front-loaded schedule. They get USC and then at Michigan back-to-back at the midpoint of the season. If you look at the FanDuel Big Ten odds, Penn State plays four of the bottom five. Jesse, what more could you ask for? What more could you ask for? You just gave me a thumbs up and a grin. This is disgusting. Let's talk about Iowa. I'm done with this. Iowa. There is no Indiana or Oregon on Iowa's schedule. The season basically boils down to like a three-week stretch. It's at Michigan. It's Ohio State. And it's at Washington. And if they can even go one and two and take care of business the rest of the way, what's the committee going to do with 10-2 Iowa? This may be unlikely, but what's the committee going to do with a 10-2 Iowa? What's the committee going to do with a 10-2 Iowa? What's the committee 10-2 a Big Ten team there? I don't know. It's mainly Penn State, though, in the Big Ten. What about the ACC? This gets all different degrees of egregious here. Virginia does not play Miami, Clemson, or Louisville. They also have a week zero game, so they do have two buys technically baked in here. At FSU, in some years, would be daunting. Doesn't figure to be all that much this year. But there is no West Coast trip either. The furthest west they go is Dallas. They don't have to play Stanford. They don't have to play Cal. They get Cal, but they get them at home. So I'd say Virginia in the ACC. I think we've got to mention NC State here, because likewise, there's no Miami. There is no SMU. There is no Clemson. They avoid five of the top seven in the ACC odds at FanDuel. They've got to go to Stanford, but they get a buy before they go out there. Jesse, don't they play three consecutive Friday night games? Yes, weird, but whatever. Do you see this back-to-back road stretch at the end of the year? If I told you I'm going to give you an over-under of 0.5 of those head coaches still being there, Florida State and North Carolina, what would you take? 0.5 is the over-under. I may still take the under, if I had to bet that. Anyway, moving on to the SEC. This is relative, like Alabama has one of, relatively speaking, the softer schedules in the SEC. We would still grade this the toughest schedule in the ACC and the Big 12 by a wide margin. So Alabama does not play Texas. They don't play OU. They don't play Ole Miss. They get three conference road games at Kentucky, at Mississippi State, and at Vanderbilt. This is not to say those games are all easy. It's to say if you've got to play four road games, or five, however it works for them this year, if you've got to play road games in the SEC, you want your road games to be Mississippi. State, to be Vanderbilt, to be Kentucky, to be teams that you know you have a talent roster edge over. And if you get upset, well, it's a moot point anyway. But then Alabama also plays five of the bottom six teams in the FanDuel SEC odds. And it's not a front-loaded schedule either. So that's as workable as you can get, I guess, in the SEC. Vandy's kind of the same. Vandy faces the bottom four teams in the SEC. They don't play Texas. They don't play A&M. They don't play LSU. They don't play OU. None of those SEC schedules are easy. Some are easier than others. And in the Big 12, it's very easy. Texas Tech, because they can't play themselves. But also, they don't play Brigham Young. And they don't play Utah. So the three best teams in that league are the man in the mirror and the two schools in Utah. And you can't play the first, and you don't play the other. There is no power for a team out of conference. Again, all due respect to Oregon State. So Texas Tech. And then Kansas State. Kansas State's another one that they don't play Texas Tech. They don't play Brigham Young. They don't play Utah, making sure. Yeah, they don't. Their game against Houston is one of the most radical schedule dynamic games out of any big-time game this year. Follow me here. Kansas State plays Houston at home October 10th. Kansas State will be off a bye. Houston will be playing their sixth consecutive game. And Houston will be playing their third road game in four weeks. This includes an inexplicable road game at Georgia Southern mixed in there. So Kansas State got a really good draw here, too. Soft schedules. Now, what are you going to do with it? You know, theoretically, you could attend any of those games. I have great news for you. It's written on this piece of paper right here. The promo code is back for SeatGeek. I, myself, am having to buy tickets for a non-sport-related event this week. And I am going to use the promo code. But I promise you guys, most of you who are looking to go to college football games this year, if you're not some of the privileged few who get the season tickets mailed to you, I could only dream of living that life when I grew up. If you got to buy individuals, first off, wait until closer to kickoff. Watch those markets fluctuate. But secondly, you're going to have to buy tickets for a non-sport-related event this week. If you're going to have to spend some money, I'm just trying to limit how much money you have to spend. Go to SeatGeek. You can buy anything for any event, but especially college football. Use the promo code PATE10. P-A-T-E-1-0 at checkout. I'm going to get you 10% off any order up to $200. I'm going to get you $20 off any order over $200. So if you want to go into Statesboro, Georgia, and watch Houston roll into town, do it and save some money in the process. Dangerous game we're about to play. Well, it's the second most dangerous game we're about to play. It's the second most dangerous game we're about to play. It's the second most dangerous game of the show. I'm trying to rank the Big Ten quarterbacks here. And this is predictive. This is kind of how I think the season's going to go. I'm going to go 1 through 10. We're not doing the whole conference. That could take the better part of an hour. Number one quarterback in the Big Ten this year, Julian Sayen. Some people may be doubting him. Not me. Julian Sayen is the quintessential year one to year two as a starter jump kind of guy this year. For me, he was good last year. I just think he'll be great this year. He takes his job really seriously. He's got the right mentality. He's certainly in the right program. He's got the right supporting cast. He's gotten himself ready physically. You notice how many quarterbacks are just, just, oh, this year. Julian Sayen, one of them. Whom's to defunk it, Jesse? Whom's to defunk it? Natural progression plus elite surroundings is what I'm counting on for Julian Sayen to be the best quarterback in the Big Ten this year. And it's up to him to prove me right. Dante Moore, number two. Got Dante Moore, number two. You could easily have Dante Moore as the number one quarterback in the Big Ten. I got him right behind Julian Sayen. Every physical tool you need is there. Elite weaponry is there. He's just got to level up in big games. It's really as simple as that. I've seen the mock drafts. I've seen him myself, obviously. Number four in the Heisman odds. It really comes down to his performance in big games. I need say very little more than that. Although I will pause and talk slow. So Bradley can roll the B-roll, because this is some of the best color in college football, and I always love just sitting here marveling at Oregon's colors. Awesome. Okay, that's enough, Bradley. Moving on. This is where I think I may be called, I don't know, they'll call you a homer for saying anything. I grew up in rural Georgia. I'm putting Jaden Maiava as my number three quarterback in the Big Ten. Someone will call me a USC homer. I think it's been building to this. That's a third-year starter. That's a third-year quarterback under one of the best guys for a quarterback to play under in Lincoln Riley, and we're finally approaching a situation at USC where we like the line of scrimmage talent. We got to cut down on the multi-interception games. It's been a problem of his for a couple of years. I'm just betting on offensive line improvement. I'm betting on natural progression, and I'm betting on him. If quarterbacks are seeds, Jesse, what better topsoil to be planted than the Lincoln Riley garden? Amazing. Amazing. I'm not talking about defensive players. It's a crapshoot on the other side. It has been his whole career, but quarterbacks, yes, give me Lincoln Riley. Number four. This is where I'm putting Josh Hoover. I'm putting Josh Hoover at number four. The Kurt Cignetti endorsement is really all you need, but we've also watched him play at TCU. I think it's a much-needed environment upgrade. That's no knock on TCU. They just asked him to do everything, and that is not Indiana. That is not the environment they bring him into. I think that alone cuts down on the interception problem, if you want to call it that. The tools are all there, but remember last year, Fernando Mendoza in big games. That's really what separated him, and that's what separated Indiana. You can talk about this stuff from 50,000 feet. Really, it's going to come down to him against Ohio State. It's going to come down to him in a playoff spot because that's where Mendoza stepped up last year. That's what remains to be seen about him. Number five. Who would you go with here? I am rolling the dice on Bryce Underwood in Michigan. I'm putting Bryce Underwood number five in the Big Ten quarterback pecking order this year. I'm projecting. I'll admit that. This is going to be the most important year one to year two jump of any quarterback in college football this year to me because I think in many ways he was in somewhat spot last year. I think Jason Beck knows how to use him. Working under him and looking at what he did with Devin Dampier last year and thinking about what he could do with Bryce Underwood, especially with mobility being a factor here, I think that and the physicality behind that will be a big part of what they do early. I think the passing game will come. I still believe, Jesse, this was a guy, what, 18 months ago? Everyone thought this is a borderline transcendent talented quarterback. They used the T word with Bryce Underwood. Certainly, they thought, man, Michigan's set for the next three years and then he's off as the number one pick in the draft. I don't think everyone was totally wrong when they thought he was an elite talent. I still think all that's there. I am betting that it shines through a little bit more this year. Okay, number six. This is where I put Rocco Beck. Over from Iowa State, all the experience in the world. Fourth year as a starter and he's not coming into a new system because Taylor Mouser comes over as his offensive coordinator. They imported the offense, basically, into State College. Probably the most talented overall cast of characters that he'll play with. The trade-off is, I can promise you, it's the most talented defenses he'll face, even playing the schedule they play this year. I think him being fully healthy makes me want to look more back to 2021. Then 2025. He wasn't terrible last year, but he was at his best in 2024. Got a sneaky mobile component. Rocco Beck, man. It's not a lot of unknown with him. The unknown is just how quickly does the puzzle fit into the Big Ten for that entire Iowa State group in year one. DeMond Williams at number seven. Putting DeMond Williams at number seven kind of scares me because he's the biggest wild card out of all. He's the guy that has the most potential to just go off and make himself squarely a top three guy that you should have seen coming. 3,000 yards last year. 25-8 TD to INT. Ran for over 600 yards. Another half dozen touchdowns. It's just the big game scalability. That's really what it is. When you face an Ohio State like they did last year, when you face big time top 10, top 15 competition, does your production level up? It would make all the sense in the world if it did this year. I trust the guy he's playing for. I trust the system he's in. I put him at number seven, but that's got me nervous. Number eight, maybe a little off the radar for most of the country. Malik Washington is the quarterback I put at number eight. True freshman last year. Ups and downs. He's a big-bodied player. 6'5", little over 230. I'm just betting on upside here. I'm betting on ceiling with both the way he can throw the ball and the way he can play. run it because they're just flashes. It's got to be way more consistent. But when you see the flashes and then you think, all right, that guy. Another year starting under his belt. We'll see. I don't love the surroundings. This is certainly a world different than what Dante Moore has to work with or what Julian Sane has to work with. He only had one game last year, though, with under 200 passing yards. Now, they're trailing a lot, so he's got to throw the ball. But still, he's got high-level potential. We'll see how good he can be this year. Number nine, I think maybe another slight roll of the dice. The reason I think Wisconsin could be better than people expect this year is because I believe in Colton Joseph. I'm putting him at number nine in the Big Ten quarterback rankings. He comes there via Old Dominion. Quarterback has been so snakebit for Wisconsin and for Luke Fickle. So I'm finally hoping, man, just get a full season healthy out of someone. And this is a guy, a few too many turnovers last year, like a 2,600-yard guy, 21 to 10, but he ran for over 1,000 yards. So he's a true dual threat. Over 250 passing yards in six games last year. He had over 75 rushing in five games last year. So it's a little different element, maybe, especially if he's healthy, than Wisconsin's had at quarterback. And as a result, I haven't trafficked a whole lot in the Luke Fickle hot seat conversation because I think they may win enough to keep him off of it. And number 10, could have gone several directions here. I will still hold my stock in Nico Yamali. And this is mainly me trying to cash in my stock on Bob Chesney. He's very enigmatic. You know how rarely I use that word. But he's a third-year guy. He just kind of inherits a situation here. He gets an elite situation. An elite staff came out there. An elite culture he's going to be plugged into. It's just about potential becoming production. That's really it. You kind of know the tools are there. You know the physical traits are there. You just hope it manifests itself. Could have put a number of guys there, but that's who I put at number 10. You can, well, you can go do whatever you want to, but if you want to go look at some of these odds markets that I've been mentioning throughout the show, FanDuel is the place to go do that. The exclusive odds provider of this show. I mean, Clemson goes to LSU week one. You can bet that right now. Or if you don't want to do that, but you think Clemson may be sneaky this year, you could bet the Clemson team win total over. Jesse, do we know if Chris Fazina is featured in the Heisman market over there? He is? Yes. So you could, I don't know why you would want to do that, but you could do that. You can do whatever you want to. It's how bold do you feel? FanDuel, the exclusive odds provider of the show. FanDuel Mike is the reason we found out the other night that if Vandy at Georgia happened today, Georgia would be an 18 and a half point favorite. If Oregon at USC happened today, Oregon would be minus six. Just some of the benefits of the friendship we have with FanDuel Mike. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas star casino or 18 plus and present in DC. First online real money wager only $5 first deposit required bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets, which expire seven days after receipt restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com slash RG. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit ndgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling. Helpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24 seven support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8 hope NY or text hope NY in New York. All right, let's wrap it up with this. I got some serious bold predictions here. Not for me from you guys. The rule here is I'm going to grade these on a boldness scale. And if you grade out nine and a half or bolder and it hits, you get a chalice of supremacy. We gave out three last year. We'll see how many we give out this year. We're going to start with a 10. And we have not had many of these, but Grant from Ann Arbor, Michigan said, Ohio state and Oregon play each other three times and Ohio state wins each time and wins the national championship. All right, let's break this down because this is a 10 for me. You got to have a lot of luck here firstly, but no matchup has happened three times. So we've never had it happen. All right. So we have to have a first in college football. Number two, you need Ohio state to beat Oregon in the regular season. Then you need Oregon to make sure they don't lose any more games because they need to get to Indy to play them in the big 10 title game. Ohio state needs to win again. Then Oregon has to make the playoff. Then they have to set up the bracket where they end up matching up either, either immediately or eventually. And then Ohio state has to win a third time and Ohio state has to make sure they win the national title. So four things have to go, right? Only a fraction of that is within Ohio state's control. So for those reasons, I'm making that a 10. That's pretty bold. Next up, this is the kind of thing that would happen these days. Dylan in Athens, Georgia, Texas wins the sec over Georgia, but Georgia advances further in the playoff. All right. So these are the two teams that are favored to meet in Atlanta. So Dylan says, Texas makes it there. They beat Georgia in Atlanta. Both of them make the playoff and then Georgia makes it further. Who knows? Maybe they beat Texas in the process, but they make it further. So. So this could happen a number of ways. First off, they could just play a tight game in Atlanta and it goes Texas's way. But the next time it goes Georgia's way, or maybe Texas does like a number of teams, Georgia included the last couple of years, they win the conference, they get the first round by, then they get eliminated one and done. And Georgia's just puttering merrily along. That could happen. I'll tell you what also could happen. You could have a situation where Georgia goes into Atlanta, banged up and they get beat, but then they get healthy. And then they go. They're going to run like it's all kind of ways this could happen, but Georgia would at least have to make it to the semifinals in this scenario, because you got to think if Texas wins the sec, they're going to have a first round by, so they made it to the second round. Even if they lose their second round game, Georgia's got to at least make it to the semifinals because the thing said, Georgia makes it further than Texas. That's a 9.5 for me. Next up. This is very creative. Nick from Toledo. Ohio. Three states will have at least two teams in the playoff. I made that a nine. So if you walk through it, the state of Texas could have like three teams itself, four teams, who knows? Tell us Texas has got Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, SMU, UTSA, like they had a whole bunch of teams that can make it. So Texas is easy. Indiana has Notre Dame and Indiana. So that could be two. Where's the third? If we assume those two, it's dangerous. But if we assume those two, where's the third one? I think Ohio could be very sneaky here and you wouldn't immediately think it because like you're saying, the Cincinnati is not going to be all that great. What are you talking about? Ohio state and who? Well, if you go and look at the Mac odds, Toledo, Miami of Ohio and Ohio. Are three of the top four teams in the odds for the Mac right now. Now they would still have to be the G5 or the G16 that makes it, but that could happen. So Ohio's kind of sneaky. Florida's got Miami, but who else is Florida going to make the playoff is FSU going to make the playoff USF brand heartline year one. Could they make, could UCF make the playoff? I don't know. Virginia's the other really sneaky one because Virginia has. Vatec and UVA, but they've got JMU. They got Liberty and they got old dominion and you could find two playoff teams out of that group. You could find two of them in Tennessee. What if Tennessee is just a little bit better and they end up being, you know, like the 10 seed and make it from the sec. And then Memphis is the G5, the G6 Charles Huff just gets Memphis there. So, um, you start looking at it like North Carolina, you'd have Duke and app state. Randomly, like you, you could have some of this stuff happen. So I'm only going to put a nine on this. That's a really creative, bold prediction that took us like 30 minutes to get through today. And lastly, Luke from Connersville, Indiana, Cal and Virginia tech finished top three in the ACC. One of them wins the conference. So what he did there is he left room for Miami, but Miami can't win the conference. This is a 9.7. Five. So if you look at the fan dual odds to win the ACC, they're right there on the screen, you're requiring that five of the top six in the preseason odds, don't finish in the top three to make room for presumably Miami. And then Virginia tech and Cal Virginia tech has the seventh best odds. Cal has the 10th best odds. The ACC quarterback picture. Kind of fringe makes this possible because you got Jerry, Darian Mensah, and then there's a lot of unknown. Uh, but if there isn't, if there is some known Cal would be part of that. Like, so you could sell yourself on Ethan Grunkemeyer coming into Virginia tech and being good enough. You can sell yourself on that, but one of them has got to win the league and they both have to finish top three. That's a 9.75 for me. I appreciate you guys. Really, really good live crowd here. Man, it's almost college football season. we just ask this, okay? I know you're talking to your buddies nonstop. I know you're talking to your family nonstop. You probably have a social circle full of people who love college football. Just make sure they know about this show and make sure they are subscribed to this channel because it doesn't really change anything for them. It's free, doesn't sign you up for anything, no spam, no anything like that. It does help us, especially this time of year. It helps us. You guys have been doing this. I'm just asking you to continue to do this. Appreciate you. We'll be back Tuesday night. Until then, for Director Bradley, Producer Jesse, and the entire crew, I'm Josh Pate. Have a great start to your week, and God bless. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. For Kansas, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 plus and present in D.C., first online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets, which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut, or visit ndgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.com. or call 1-800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts, or call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York. 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