CFP Expanding 24 Teams + Week 7 Upset Alerts & New Top 25

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These people if you ask them the question, college football is great because, could not fill in the blank unless they attached a playoff sticker to the answer. Because that's the only context. That's the only prism, the only lens through which they know how to view this stuff. And so it's not a surprise. These are the kinds of ideas they spit out. Hey, look, a lot of people were in my inbox today saying, this is Tony Petitti's fault. Man, you must be so mad at Tony Petitti. I'm not mad at Tony Petitti. I actually appreciate Tony Petitti. He and I have totally different worldviews on how this sport should operate, but I'll give credit to Tony Petitti. That dude was honest from day one. When he walked in the room, he has been honest throughout. He has molded what he wants college football to be around this plan, because at the very nucleus of Tony Petitti and people of his ilk's worldview on this sport is it revolving around the idea that he's going to be the best player in the world. And he's going to be the best player in the world. And he's going to be backing of playoff expansion. One of the dumbest bullet points that gets fired at you is, well, you'll watch anyway. Tony Petitti used this bankrupt logic at Big Ten Media Days. He said, I've seen all of the pushback against this, but I'm confident people will watch. Dude, it's the only restaurant in town. There is nowhere else to go eat. If your food sucks, but I still walk in the cafeteria, it's not evidence you did a good job. Your food probably still sucks. Where else am I going to go? There is no other alternative for people like us who love college football. That makes us very vulnerable, by the way. And, you know, guys like that know that it's not just Tony Petitti. He could not have done this alone. But the entire purpose for this, I think, is being misunderstood. And I just want you guys to understand the purpose for this was not TV. TV was not begging for this. In fact, ESPN would have just as soon left this exactly where it was. But what ESPN was not going to do is let other networks gobble it up. So they pay whatever they needed to pay once the powers that be said we want expansion to keep the thing in its entirety. But it wasn't TV pushing for it, contrary to popular belief. It's not even a huge payday. When you factor in replacing the value of the conference title games and stuff like that, there'll be a little more money made on this. But guys, it's not this massive Brinks truck financial windfall that I think it may be perceived to be. No. What it comes down to is the same people who could not have cared less what the general public thought also playing the rich people in the room as fools. Donors. I saw David Hale talk about this earlier today. We've talked about this on this show. It's really looking at a Texas A&M donor and knowing this year if they go eight and four, they're going to be left out and Elko's going to face some heat and those donors are going to be pissed off because they're not getting a return on their investment. And this is the grand idea for these talentless, completely detached group of people who run the sport right now. They looked and said, oh man, we can't have them close the checkbook. We've got to convince them that the money they're paying has some sort of return, but only 12 of them can make the playoff right now. We got to expand this thing, you know, so that today's eight and four being a failure. Tomorrow's eight and four playoff team. And that'll do the trick. That's essentially the long and short of this. A bunch of really, really talentless people drove college football down the wrong road to begin with. And now all they know to do is speed up and the donor class that's responsible for writing the checks that really bankrolls this entire flawed system is at threat of drying up unless you could sell them the illusion. That all of a sudden, what we're doing is good enough for playoff access. We're in the playoff. Guys, we went eight and four, but don't pay attention to that. We locked down the 22 seed. Sign that check and deposit it in this box for next year. That's it. They're selling a lie and they really just count on you being stupid enough to buy it. And by you, I don't mean you working a nine to five out there. I mean you with seven or eight figures in your net worth line, writing the checks year in and year out. Are you guys really that dumb? They assume you are. I just wonder, are you really that dumb? By the way, they aren't done. I'm going to ask this question again. Using the logic that was used to expand this to 24 teams, more access is better. Bigger playoff means we'll schedule bigger games. More fan bases are invested later in the year. By that logic, why would you stop at 24? The answer is they won't. And all you need to do is listen to their reasoning. I just laid out the logic. By that logic, why would 24 be the stop sign? Don't listen to their statements though. Did you see Wolken earlier today? Tweeted something out from all the way back in 2013. They were lying back then. They're lying now. This is a Dan Wolken tweet from 2013, quoting at the time Bill Hancock, who, was running this thing. And he said, Well, guess what happened after that, Jesse? We didn't go to eight. So I guess that was true. We flew past that. We went to 12. They won't stop at 24. The same folks who ruined college basketball, even though that's a completely different sport and I'm not here to compare, the same people who look at that as being a tournament sport, they look at college basketball as being a tournament sport. They look at college basketball as being a tournament sport. They look at college football. They don't possess the ability to see it as anything other than a tournament sport. They just took a gigantic step towards that utopia, because to them it is today, but they're not done. Look, we'll be okay. We'll be okay. I mean, Saturdays in the fall, I mean, they still exist and you'll still have the cream eventually rise. It's just the process that there was no problem with for a long time is being tinkered, by people who have no business in the kitchen. Now, having said that, we're not there yet. So tomorrow and then Saturday, we're going to be in Bloomington, Indiana, the week seven edition of the Don't Tread on Saturday tour, proudly presented by Jimmy Johns. We'll be on location tomorrow afternoon. For those of you in Indiana, for those of you on campus, we'll be live on ESPN from two to three Eastern. Myself, Will Compton, Taylor LeJuan, producer Jesse, will be wearing a headset behind the scenes there. Have you been seen on camera yet, Jesse? Like in none of those shots? I bet you, I bet you you've snuck on air. I'll check the credits. If you're in the credits, that means you were on air. I'll check. Anyway, the Don't Tread on Saturday t-shirt commemorating this trip, available right now, one week only, at patestatematerial.com. Also, Prez's personal favorite, the Spooky Saturday collection. Had someone hit me up for very, very specific toddler merch today. And like I said, we already Don't Tread on Saturday skeleton snake onesie. What more could your infant want? Believe it or not, the requests are still pouring in. Patestatematerial.com for all that. This is LeVar Arrington from Two Pros and a Cup of Joe. Running a small business means keeping track of a lot, but your finances shouldn't feel complicated. Let me tell you about Xero. That's X-E-R-O. Xero brings accounting, payments, payroll, and analytics together. Giving you one clear view of your business. With easy to read dashboards, you can see your cashflow and understand exactly what's coming in and what's going out. Xero's AI can save you time and provide insights to help you make smarter decisions while keeping everything simple and accessible. It's powerful enough for an accountant, but simple enough for you. Xero is the all-in-one to get business done. Xero is the all-in-one to get learn more at Xero.com. Or hear me out, $1,100 worth of brisket. So when a storm hits your house and your car, you only have to make one call. Kin, Texas-sized savings. Phoenix, Arizona. Savings apply when you bundle home and auto based on filed rates. Visit RYOBI tools.com slash football. RYOBI, only at the Home Depot. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcast. The true crime comedy podcast all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debrie, Lamorne Morris, and Nicole Byer. Ooh, I scammed them. What? I could talk to you for an hour. You're a generational yapper, like me. That's why I had to make yapping a job. And the scams run the gamut. I'm talking about scams from the 1800s all the way up to today. I also warn you and keep you safe against scammers. Call your grandparents. Tell your parents to stop clicking on links, please. And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube. If there's a scam, I'm here to protect you. And I'm also here to laugh with you. So if you like fun, if you like comedy, and you like learning and protecting yourself from criminals, start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. your podcast all right let's talk about football actual football not garbage expansion got a lot of upset alerts that we need to have on our radar this week and i will put a rating of my concern for each favorite here starting in baton rouge mississippi states at lsu i thought it was illegal for lsu to play 11 a.m games but apparently not however lsu is a 14 and a half point favorite obviously that line strongly suggests they don't expect camario taylor to play at this point i don't expect camario taylor to play um even if he does it's not a it's not an overly mobile threat you're not getting the full camario taylor experience even if he does play right now lsu's a far different team at home even when the sun is out and now we could get blake baker versus billy puckett bbbp matchup jesse uh mississippi state's defense is in the 100s and most critical stat categories lsu really needs to get right here i'm putting a three on this and maybe too high still i think lsu could run away with this then again i thought they'd beat kentucky last week so that's why we're going with the three speaking of kentucky they are marching on norman oklahoma this weekend kentucky a six and a half point dog at oklahoma oklahoma's in do-down mode kentucky's in double do-down mode oklahoma's in double do-down mode oklahoma's in do-down mode oklahoma's in double do-down mode oklahoma's in double do-down mode oklahoma's in double do-down mode kubelik texted me and asked me what do-down means the other day it's like how how much more self-explanatory can it get well when you come off back-to-back walk-off two-point conversions history says you're due for a crash kentucky is in that spot then again when arch manning tosses a couple of picks your way and you inexplicably win the red river shootout history also says you're due for a crash the next week i don't actually know what history says about that i'm just broad stroking it immunity right now for the purposes of putting an eight on the upset alert concern meter here kenny menchie what do we know about him he does not turn the ball over and if he does it's only because it tipped off of one of his receivers kenny menchie has been very very good protecting the football and if he is that and if kentucky is that here it's probably not going to require 35 offensive points to beat oklahoma now kentucky does have a pass defense that's a little vulnerable is oklahoma in position to take advantage of that and in the process of that we're going to be able to win the game and we're going to be able to win the game in the process of trying to take advantage of it does john mature revert back to his turnover ways we've already seen kentucky go on the road and physically take it to texas a&m this is a little different outfit i will grant you to try and take it to physically but i think this game bears close watching i'm putting an eight on the upset alert concern meter nebraska is at oregon nine on the upset alert concern meter nebraska is a six and a half point dog there will be no dante moore in this game for oregon and yet we don't even know who's starting for him dylan raiola brock thomas both taking reps raiola coming off the worst quarterback performance of the modern era maybe even the color tv era horrifically bad last week it would be dylan raiola against his former team don't really care who starts for court or starts for oregon at quarterback nebraska will have the qb edge in this game can you imagine saying that in the preseason in the preseason the look ahead line here was oregon minus 23 and a half it's now oregon minus six and a half nebraska not only comes in here with the quarterback edge they bring the number 17 run defense in here too they really clamped down on indiana last week so if you're thinking well oregon may be vulnerable at quarterback that's okay they'll just run the ball all day yeah no they won't i don't think they will at least and conversely oregon pass defense second in the country and they're not getting pressure somehow despite on paper having a lot of defensive guys that should be good in that category one thing oregon's got to do which indiana did a little bit at the right time last week cat buster through the air if they can do that they don't have to be consistent all day but uh i i think nebraska's got a real shot here they were so close last week and i don't think it was a mirage or an illusion i think they can go up there and they can take it to oregon i'm putting a nine on it if that's what dan needs the troops to hear i'm happy to contribute but i don't feel great about this arizona state is headed to lubbock kenny dillingham loose in lubbock it's like phil collins had a concert back in the day live and loose in paris kenny dillingham live and loose in lubbock that's like a two dvd set i guarantee you what a special that would be anyway this is just going to be a football game texas tech is a 14 and a half point favorite lone regular season loss last year was at the hands of kenny dillingham and the arizona state sun devils will hammond so far this year who started that game by the way five touchdowns five picks not great not great not a disaster but not great texas techs off a bye coming out of that bye do they improve on the 127th ranked pass defense in the country well the one thing that concerns me the most about arizona state's advantage of that which obviously they'll try is in their two losses this year they've been minus three turnovers in each one of them if you just guaranteed me even turnover here i i think this is an absolute four-quarter game it may be anyway but because of the turnover thing and the home field and the rest and all that i'm gonna put a six on this which is pretty high for a two touchdown spread but honestly joey needs me to say that so i'm happy to do it mitch do you want me to text kenny and tell him he has no shot do we just want to publicly doubt both neither team's going to win this game there you go we have appeased all friends of the program auburn is it georgia prayers up for the tigers or might we have a schedule dynamic special here yes we do and yet georgia still favored by 20 and a half this is georgia's seventh straight game they're coming off a big emotional game on the road at alabama what did all auburn do last week they slept they were off and now the deep south's oldest rivalry features a rested team versus a team that's gone through a gauntlet auburn's got a grind and they got a hope great advice just grind and hope i'm putting a three on this and it's only that high because of the schedule dynamics i can't trust this team anywhere much less on the road right now against georgia and lastly jesse is in spirit at least going to ann arbor as penn state faces michigan michigan's a six and a half point favorite this is another scheduled dynamic disadvantage game penn state seventh straight game michigan rested at home michigan 136th in explosive plays 104th in penalties 102nd in giveaways of course that'll all be cleaned up out of the buy it'll all be well and good bryce underwood will i will grant you that but at least they protect the ball so if they can protect the ball here michigan's probably not pulling away maybe this is a four-quarter game i'll put a six on it that's about as good as i can do i just i remember looking at that game in the preseason thinking man that may be a game we go to we'll see it's a loaded weekend and now we'll do the viewer's guide later in the show that that may be on someone's secondary screen it could get the screen treatment oh the humanity you could drive to that game in a ram if you wanted to we have partnered with ram pate state a proud partner of ram i got one parked right out there messes me up every time jesse the truck the truck flashes across the screen and i never remember which side of the screen it's coming in on look nothing stops college football nothing stops ram these two things we know real tailgate mvp ram trucks i just want to say that we walk through parking lots every saturday and it it always warms my heart to see a tailgate scene but you want to know in in the words of meemaw what really makes my heart pump peanut butter never used that phrase on the show before until now prez love that one she said it all the time i'm not making that up actually that was a quote she really did used to use all the time i don't know if she was talking about rams but i'm going to use it in that context seeing a ram is that not beautiful it doesn't have to be red i mean ours happens to be the one on the screen happens to be but you're talking about a 10-year 100,000 mile powertrain limited warranty beautiful beautiful selection go check it out check out a ramp give ram a chance in 2026 this is lavar errington from two pros and a cup of joe running a small business means keeping track of a lot but your finances shouldn't feel complicated let me tell you about zero that's x e r o zero brings accounting payments payroll and analytics together giving you one clear view of your business with easy to read dashboards you can see your cash flow and understand exactly what's coming in and what's going out zero's ai can save you time and provide insights to help you make smarter decisions while simple and accessible it's powerful enough for an accountant But simple enough for you. Learn more at Xero.com. Did you know Texans who switched to Kins say they saved around $1,100 a year on home insurance? Kin. Texas-sized savings. Home insurance refers to the Kin House and Property HD3 policy with an owner-occupied endorsement where applicable Texas customers who switch to Kin report annual savings of $1,160 on average. Phoenix, Arizona. When it's time to take the party. Beyond the yard, RYOBI's portable power solutions keep your tailgate running strong. Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debris, Lamorne Morris, and Nicole Byer. Ooh, I scammed them. What? So if you want to know more about scams, if you like fun, if you like comedy, and you like learning and protecting yourself from criminals, start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Scam Goddess! Let's continue. Got some games to preview. Got some viewers guides to get to. Commissioners polls out. Got a whole lot to get to. Jam-packed. Florida at Texas. Saturday, high noon Eastern, 11 a.m. local on ABC. Texas has a 22-game home run. Home winning streak against unranked opponents. A lot of streaks falling left and right these days. There's a lot of chatter around Texas, by the way, about Steve Sarkeesian. I'm just going to tell you, an 11.5-point spread on this game. Texas absolutely has to win this game. And I would even argue, and I rarely say this stuff, it's important that Texas wins this game a certain way. Because a lot of the chatter, as you may imagine or may even be contributing to, centers around underachievement offensively. And if you're going to get right offensively, what you want to do is you want to have a team with the 131st-ranked pass defense come to town and turn loose on them. And that is the spot that Texas finds themselves in, as they are themselves 126th in explosive plays so far this year. Inexcusable. So last year in the bowl game, that game against Michigan, it got us all excited about Arch Manning. You remember he ran for 126th? He ran for 155 yards and two touchdowns in that game. And you're watching him so far this year, I am at least, and I'm saying, where was that? Like, I don't think he's going to go bear Botmeyer. He shouldn't have to. But, man, if what you're doing is not working and you know you have that at your disposal, is the fear of injury really that significant? That you just refuse to do that? I keep wondering where it is. But anyway, independent of quarterback run, I mean, Florida's been torched. They should torch them. Lenora Sellers threw it all over Florida. He's had a bad year. And even he went 23 of 35, 279, five total touchdowns. Austin Simmons carved him up for 340. That's got to be there. So it sounds like I'm talking about this massive blowout game. The line's only 11 and a half. That's with home field baked in. What's the path for Florida? Firstly, the first four games of the year, Florida scored over half a hundred per game, 260 on the ground per game. And then the last two games, crashed 18 points per game, around 80 yards rushing per game. Jaden Ball fell off a cliff. His production at least fell off a cliff. And this is the best defense they've seen. Texas is top 25 in everything. Also, you got a Texas pass rush here against two offensive tackles near the bottom of the league in various important blocking statistics and metrics. So it's hard to paint the path. I really think the line's so low because, as people perceive Texas as vulnerable, and they still have that faint echo of the Florida offense in their mind from a few weeks ago. Things should be well over 14. I'll talk about it in a second. Vernell Brown is back. Maybe it's just like VB3. That's the missing ingredient. And the offense takes off again. Florida forced turnovers early in the season. They haven't done that lately and they need to. They're 120th in third down defense. South Carolina against Florida on third down. Had third and 13 converted. Third and 10, third and 10, third and 11, third and 14. Those were all third down conversions. That's gross, Jesse. Five different conversions of third and 10 plus. One thing to look for, though. Texas special teams, a little suspect right now. So if there's some hidden points and yardage to be had here, that's probably where it comes from. Let's take a look at the model. It disagrees. This is crazy. Fan Duel's got Texas minus 11 and a half. The model always overrates Texas. But in this case, I think the model's on to something and I think the number's low at Fan Duel. The model has Texas minus 14. I agree. This is where Texas puts their foot down. And it's not going to be that all their issues are solved. It's just, this is a great matchup for them to just, I guess, have some medicine that they badly need. Guys, if they don't move the ball against this Florida secondary, it is time to have some real conversations on Sunday. But this is Thursday, so it's not time for that. Give me Texas to win and cover. You can go to the game, hop in your Ram, and you can go to the game. If you need tickets, if you need parking to football games or otherwise, this weekend or any weekend, go to SeatGeek, select all the things you need to select, and right before you check out, enter promo code PATE10, P-A-T-E-1-0 at checkout. That's good for 10% off of any order up to $200. Or $20 off any order above $200. Look, I'm still fighting to just get everyone free tickets. But SeatGeek has told me that would put them out of business if they gave away all their tickets for free. And they're right. So in the interim, what we've settled on is that discount code, PATE10 at checkout, P-A-T-E-1-0. Commissioner's poll. The week seven commissioner's poll is out. These are my rankings. These are merit-based. If I'm filling out a, this is how I'm filling out. No power ratings, no neutral field favorability. That's the JP poll. The commissioner's poll has Georgia number one in the country, and it's Miami, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Alabama, two through five. What I typically like to do, and we started to do this this year, is we'll put the poll out early in the afternoon so that we can look at the reactions, and we feature some of the most popular reactions on the show. Because to me, that's better than just me reading off a list, one through 25. Firstly, someone, Tommy, not someone, Tommy, said, What's the argument for UCLA over Texas? By your rankings, Texas has two better wins than anything UCLA has. Is it just eye test, or is it record-based? Okay, it's not eye test. It is record-based. Good question, by the way. I forgot about the term I made up. I made up a term a while back, and man, I cannot remember what it was. Jesse, you probably have heard me talk about this before. So a team like UCLA, as long as they're undefeated, at this point in the year, I'm willing to give them benefit of rankings doubt and put them above a team like Texas, whose resume probably is better. They do have more impressive wins. The thing is, UCLA is in danger of disproportionately falling once the bubble gets popped. In the past, I've kind of talked about G6 teams like that. When you get later in the year, if a G6 team's undefeated, I'm okay putting them four, 14th, or 12th, or 10th, or whatever it is, but with the understanding, if they lose, they could just fall all the way out of the pole. And so I treat these teams with weaker schedules played thus far. A little bit different as long as they're undefeated, but you are right. Texas has better wins. I wouldn't mind if you flipped them. I wouldn't mind if you had UCLA behind Ole Miss. That wouldn't bother me, but I'm rewarding them for being undefeated right now in a Power Four conference, understanding that if it goes pop against Wisconsin, yeah, they could flip. fall pretty precipitously. up we've got the usual death taxes and not sure why Notre Dame is even top 10 well they're top 10 because they're one of the best teams in the country I think and it's my poll immunity so I've got Notre Dame number three right now as I said last week and every week with Notre Dame I have long since flushed my preseason rankings out of the formula by this point in the season but what I do still rely on a little bit with teams like that who haven't played a murderer's row of a schedule is I will throw a little of my personal feel in there it's it's a ranking it's my ranking why wouldn't I do that and it is unevenly applied so if you call that hypocritical you're right because I do not use this for every team but with Notre Dame I believe they're so good that I'm able to look at not just the teams they've beaten but the margin they're getting on teams and I'll mix in a little of just what I believe they are that's why Notre Dame's top three they don't have the time they're on the road where does the AP have Brigham Young eight so by the AP's rankings they're facing the top 10 team on the road this week so very very soon one way or another we'll have a top 10 data point baked in for Notre Dame next up this one hey this situation's got me up at night Jesse this big 12 teens situation Ute fan for life no affiliation he said I assume you have the big 12 schools ranked 13th through 15th due to weak strength of schedule is this why they're seemingly stuck in that range whereas schools like Missouri Kentucky UCLA jumped them based on that reasoning will they jump them back based on future results well let's go backwards so yes everyone could jump everyone based on future results the big 12 included the big 12 teams many of them still to this point there aren't places to hang your hat on their resume now obviously that's about to change Brigham Young plays Notre Dame this weekend if Brigham Young beat Notre Dame Jesse would probably have the top five or something like that like I think easily would have them that high so yes one by one as you add these meaningful data points in that'll happen I think you could ask why doesn't Brigham Young get the same benefit of doubt as Notre Dame the simple answer is I don't think they're as good as Notre Dame that's it they'll play the game this weekend and we'll find out but that's the long and short of it because otherwise Brigham Young Utah like they've done everything that they can do Texas, Tech none of these teams have lost a game but they just don't get the same benefit of doubt you can call that fair or unfair my counter to that would be it's week seven and I know me personally I know my heart personally I know once those teams do prove themselves I'll have no problem vaulting them up you know so if your point to me is it's not fair because even if you say it's week seven right now they've got a chance to prove themselves it's not fair Josh because they're still having to climb their way up so they got further to go no they don't no I and I'm speaking for me personally if Utah were to beat Georgia this week they don't play them or if Brigham Young beats Notre Dame I'd vault them right up there in the top three I'd have no hesitation doing that you'd go from completely off the radar to center of radar in other words I don't know if everybody thinks like that but I do but yeah it is it's a benefit of doubt thing basically next up Bama Indiana Rowland said this is a pretty solid poll thank you not enough people say that but he said I'd have Indiana ahead of Alabama Indiana has won 22 straight games although they're not as dominant as last year you have to beat the champs to be the champs I don't think that way personal preference here I don't look at Indiana and say they've won 22 games in a row from a rankings perspective they've won six games in a row that's it nothing before week one this year exists as far as their resume goes now with Alabama I think about their two wins so Alabama went into Mississippi State and beat Mississippi State convincingly Indiana went into Nebraska and came from behind and beat Nebraska I'd say Alabama's performance there is more impressive but let's just say they're equal for the sake of argument well then I have to start going down the list and I have to start asking what else have you done Bama went into Kentucky and won whereas Indiana had Northwestern at home and barely won so I just start getting down the resume there I think Alabama's resume is better than Indiana's right now with the understanding that that could be about to change in a big way because Indiana is about to play Ohio State so I will guarantee you this independent of what Alabama does against Tennessee if Indiana beats Ohio State this week I will promise you Indiana's above Alabama next week and we know how rarely we promise things on the show Jesse but I will I will guarantee you there's that word again guarantee about eight percent of the audience knows that reference and to the other 92 don't waste your time Erie Pennsylvania tuned in Slidell Louisiana tuned in San Diego California tuned in this could be a game of the week Oklahoma State's playing Houston this weekend ladies and gentlemen and if you're watching our Thursday show you're a diehard college football fan this has America's Conference vibes on it the Big 12 we called America's Conference for a long time because anybody could win the thing and then Joey McGuire tried to ruin it all by building a super team but Saturday 7 30 eastern on Fox over under four chow lie on this game you're going over I am too I am too and it's that's a high over-under mainly because we've never set one before on a game but I think we're going over for chow lie on this one it would not surprise me if you look at the Big 12 odds right now it's kind of crazy because Utah Texas Tech and Brigham Young are one two three and yet I'm looking at number four and number five saying I like both those teams man and they they are Oklahoma State and Houston and they are playing in this game it was I mean if you told me the winner this game is going to go on to Dallas and win the whole thing wouldn't shock me at all so good news here depending on your perspective good news Houston's run defense matches up very well with Caleb Hawkins and the boys at Oklahoma State here's the bad news Drew Mestemaker is a future Sunday player and he is facing the number 118 pass defense in the country so he could go down there and have himself a pretty big day Oklahoma State's 40 plus in the one I'm not really sure they even told them they were playing a game that day like I'm going to need some evidence that Oklahoma State was aware that that game counted because after that game Mestemaker's been over 300 in every game through the air he's only taken two sacks they've got multiple high level options at wide receiver so that's the good news bad news on that side what's the formula for Houston here well as college football games usually work out we've got a team here that is a favorite against a high level passing attack has the ability to take over the game on the ground I I'm not calling plays for him this weekend if you went two to one run to pass I wouldn't mind it at all all due respect to Connor Wigman Oklahoma State's run defense is in the 80s Sanford Hughes Wegman himself is a threat with his legs they could dominate here this could be one of those games I know a lot of folks are on Oklahoma State if Houston wins this game it could be one of you look at the stat sheet dude they ran for 200 and what they ran for 300 and what Oklahoma State um they allow 335 on the ground against West Virginia so it's there we know it's there Connor Wigman by the way when he does throw in this game three plus touchdowns and no picks each of his last five Houston's been rolling and they got a good wide receiver group Patrick Overmeyer tight end really really good player so turnover margin at least on paper looks to heavily lean Houston here although that's one given game anything can happen game script is everything I mean if I'm thinking Houston can take over this game on the ground what I don't want to see is let's check the phone here oh wow Oklahoma State's up 14-0 that's not good that's very very similar to the game script Alabama Tennessee could take if Alabama gets up early doesn't matter what Tennessee's ground game can do you got to throw the ball to get back in it now Houston possesses a lot of time to possesses the ability to. I just don't know that the shootout's what they want to get him. Oklahoma State would lead. Houston playing the long game, time-consuming drives early. Also, you under-betters need to pay close attention to that. Okay, so the FanDuel number right now is Houston minus four and a half. The model agrees. We got Houston minus five. I just trust Oklahoma State, Jesse. Sue me. So I think those guys are going to go down there. I'll take all the four and a half points. I lean them to win the game outright. That's where I am on that one. That's going to be a great game. We're going to talk about that one more in just a second in the viewer's guide. As you're driving to the games this weekend or as you're driving right now, check your gas tank. Statistically, a lot of people listening to this are close to empty right now. Quick trips got you covered. Others may have looked at the gas gauge and said, well, shows what he knows. I'm full. Yeah, but your stomach's not. Yeah. So what you're going to want to do, no matter how much gas you have in the tank, is you're going to want to find the nearest quick trip anyway, and you're going to want to pull in, you know why, Jesse? Two words, crispy snacks. Stop me when you hear something you like. Chicken tendies? Mm-hmm. Tater tots? Yep. Waffle fries? Gooey mozzarella sticks, even though I said I wasn't going to say the word on the air. There it is. Gooey mozzarella sticks. Wings. Allegedly apple pie is a crispy snack, but there was heavy debate in the newsroom. That's a very old school term I haven't used in a long time. What do we call this out here? The office? The conference room? Studio B? I don't know. Anyway, you could have a really, really fun time just perusing the crispy snack options at Quick Trip, and I know you may want to wash it down with a soda, I'm not a big soda guy, I'd go water, but if I'm at a Quick Trip, you know it's cold brew and tap for me, even if I'm about to go to sleep. I could take cold brew and tap any time of day from Quick Trip. That's X-E-R-O. Xero is a financial management platform that loves giving small business owners the clarity to have the confidence in their numbers. It puts accounting payments, payroll, and analytics all in one place, so you always have one clear picture of your business. With visual dashboards, Xero makes it easy to understand your cash flow, you know exactly what's coming in and what's going out, so you can make smarter decisions that can help grow your business. Xero's AI can even offer insights to help you make your best move. It's powerful enough for an accountant and for you. Did you know Texans who switched to Kinz say they saved around $1,100 a year on home insurance? Texas customers who switch to Kin report annual savings of $1,100 on average. Kin Interinsurance Nexus Exchange, Phoenix, Arizona. When it's time to take the party beyond the yard, Ryobi's portable power keeps your tailgate running strong. Ooh, I scammed them. What? You're a professional yapper, like me. So if you like fun, if you like comedy, and you like learning, and you like to be a part of the show, I'm here to protect you. And protecting yourself from criminals. Start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, viewer's guide time. You know, actually, uh, where are we? Yeah, I had to find my chapstick. Oh, it's tough. It's tough. This is, this is a transitioning time of year from a dew point perspective. Did you watch Get Up this morning, by the way? They put together a montage. I'm not even talking to anyone, but Jesse's like, we're off air right now. They put together a montage of my forecasting prowess last week with Ginger Z. It's better than anything our team has made of me. Let that be a lesson to all of you in there. As I mix in more weather talk on the show, I posted it at Josh Pate CFB. Jesse, you should follow me. The week seven viewer's guide has arrived. It's a big weekend, obviously. All of them are, some bigger than others. And there are a lot of marquee games. And I want to take you through it. We're going to walk through it together. We got to formulate a plan. I know most of you have more than one monitor that you can view these games on, but we have to be smart about how we stack this. So the early window on Saturday, I think for most people, your main monitor will be big noon kickoff, Ohio state at Indiana. I'm going to be right there on the sideline for that game. I am so, so fired up to be in Bloomington. Most of us have never been to a college football game there. So we'll be there. Your second screen, you got Florida, Texas, and you got Mississippi state LSU. Now look, those are two double digit point spread games. So there's a chance one or both of them gets out of hand early. Of course you could have an upset brewing, but if those games are getting out of hand early and you need to look elsewhere, Cincinnati is next week. Before that, we've got Cincinnati at West Virginia. That's the noon TNT game. That's going to be off the radar. No one's talking about that game right now, but since he's a one loss team, there are one and a half point dog in Morgantown. Last time a big 12 opponent marched into Morgantown for an early kickoff, it was Arizona and they undressed West Virginia. I think that's right. So let's keep an eye on that. Midday window. It's kind of anyone's guess what you want to do with your main screen. The game that I think will get the biggest TV number is third Saturday in October, Bama, Tennessee. That's the ABC game. The game that I think has the most five child, like classic potential somehow is on sec network at three 30 Eastern time on all these. And that is Missouri at Ole Miss. And I don't know, like regardless of who your rooting affiliation is, I don't know how you don't have Missouri Ole Miss on at least some kind of side monitor because that one is going to be fireworks. Now here's where we have to be strategic. Our other monitors. I think we have to have one that is aimed towards Lubbock. That is a three 30 Eastern kick on Fox and that's Kenny Dillingham and the Arizona state sun devils. The only loss for Texas tech last year, they're heading into Lubbock, Texas tech's off a buy. Arizona state's been turnover prone. If they're not, they can create some magic there. We'll see Jesse sadistically dressed in all black with a hoodie on indoors. Probably we'll be watching CBS at three 30. What a hideous game for someone as lovely as Jenny Dell to have to cover. It just looks so prominent in the preseason. And now everybody's just on edge and it's Penn state at Michigan is the game I'm talking about, by the way. But Michigan's coming out of a buy. Penn state's playing their seventh in a row. So we'll see how that works. So yeah, those are some options there. Of course, rice plus four and a half, somehow, some way the model wants us to be on today. So I'll have a little eye on ESPN plus at four 30. They're taking on Tulsa. I just threw up in my mouth. Let's move on. Primetime window. We had to Provo seven 30 Eastern kick on ABC, Notre Dame, Brigham Young, and everyone's kind of waiting to see this Notre Dame get up early or does Brigham Young pop them early and they have reason to believe. And then it's a four quarter fist fight, which is what most of America's rooting for. I think that's your main window. I also think Oklahoma state Houston deserves main window consideration, main screen consideration. That's seven 30 on Fox. Is this a triple header day for Fox? It must be. Yeah. Cause they got one in every window. So that you handle your main screen. However, you're not going to be able to do that. You're going to have to I want to talk to you about how secretly loaded this primetime window is. So your second screen, your third screen, I don't know how deep you guys go for screens. Is there a limit? I don't think the limit exists. No, it doesn't. Uh, Wisconsin at UCLA, seven 30 Eastern four 30 local kick. That's the NBC game. I that's a beautiful uniform game by the way. Just thought about that. Oh, picture it. Picture it. Jesse Wisconsin road whites with the red lettering. And then the powder blue home uniforms with that unmistakable UCLA script helmet. How do people not watch this sport? Man, it's like so many people out there taking so many medications that they could get off of if they just watched college football instead. That's God's medicine. That's medicine just naturally gifted to us. How did I get sidetracked that badly? So that is 730. Also, Kublik is in town, so you know something big's going down in Norman, Oklahoma. Kentucky at Oklahoma on SEC Network is at 730. How long do we need to watch FSU Miami? It's a very disrespectful question when it comes to this rivalry, but then again, Florida State has disrespected the rivalry. They haven't been much of a factor. 7 o'clock ESPN, 21.5 point favorites are the Hurricanes. It's a big recruiting weekend for Mario. He wants a dead body. He wants a sacrifice. He's going to try and give them one. If you're interested, Arkansas is in town to take on Vanderbilt on ESPN2. The late window is going to deliver. Look at that down there in the far right corner. Prez, is that right? Nebraska, Oregon kicking off at 11 p.m. Dan's going to have to catch the highlights the next morning, but I'm staying up to watch it. 11 o'clock Eastern kick from Eugene. Man, that's crazy, but that one's going to be really big, and I don't want us to just completely lose track. Of the fact that Wake Forest is at Cal, ESPN2, 10.30 Eastern, and New Mexico is out on the Big Island. New Mexico is not taking vacation to Hawaii. They're taking a business trip to Hawaii. New Mexico is a 15.5 point favorite. They got North Dakota State in the next week. I know way more about New Mexico's schedule than I should, but then again, maybe not. MG6 Josh, after all. And Friday night, we do Friday night last. Washington is at Purdue. That's the game that at halftime, we will do Friday night lines. That's why I'm pointing this out. Purdue's favored. Barry Odom and the boys threw Minnesota in the Woodchipper last week, and now, I mean, think about the 1-2 in the state of Indiana. Notre Dame's on the road, but we got Purdue at home Friday night. We got Indiana at home 12 hours or so later, 16 hours later. So that's your viewer's guide for this week. It's a really good, that primetime window. How you divide up the screens is going to be very important. Over at FanDuel, exclusive odds provider of the show, they have noticed that a big powerhouse Saturday is on deck. Okay, big slate, gigantic slate. Profit boosts all over the place. You got profit boosts on Ohio State, Indiana, on Florida, Texas, Notre Dame, BYU, just all throughout the day, plus 30% profit boost on any college football bets. So if you're not already over there, fanduel.com slash Josh Pate, sign up that way. We get a little credit for it. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. For Kansas, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 plus and present in D.C. First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets, which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit fanduel.com slash RG. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org. Chat in Connecticut or visit ndgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York. Got the ramen noodle express right here to close out the show. Best bets. We are cooking right now, but we can be better. So we're on Wisconsin plus three and a half. We gave that one out Sunday before the line moved. We're on rice plus four and a half, and that's nothing to brag about even if you win. We are adding Notre Dame Brigham Young under 46 and a half. I made that one my table slapper on the locker room Wednesday. I think that number is about three points too high, and that's three so far. You got to check out Friday Night Lions for the rest of them. Like if you don't watch Friday Night Lions, you miss most of the bets. How do you watch Friday Night Lions? Very simple. Be on Instagram at halftime of Washington. Purdue. Instagram live. You'll see it fire up at Josh Pate CFB. If you're not already following me there, you need to go ahead and get over there. Plus the next day on Saturdays, we have a whole bunch of behind the scenes content. We're on the sideline for every game we go to. So we show you a lot of stuff you wouldn't see otherwise. It's just a fun time over there at Josh Pate CFB. All right. We'll be back here Sunday night to just talk about it all. Looking forward to seeing you guys in Indiana the next two days. For Director Bradley, Producer Jesse, I'm Josh Pate. Take care. Let's enjoy the games and God bless. After receipt. Restrictions apply. Gambling problem? Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit ndgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Kin. Texas-sized savings. Phoenix, Arizona. Based on file rates. Someone once said, everybody's got a plan until they get punched in the mouth. I did. Mike Tyson. Oh, well, Mike Tyson and Boost are here to tell you that your mobile plan is punching you in the mouth with prices that can knock you out. That's a low blow. Totally. But you can do something about it. You have to punch back. No, Mike. You gotta switch to Boost with a plan that's $25 a month forever. Oh, that's a great plan. Do both. Boost Mobile. What's your plan? Visit ryobitools.com. slash football. Each week, I bring on an amazing guest. Ooh, I scammed him. What? You're a generational yapper like me. Start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeartRadio app, podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.