Speaker 1Keep you in the dark, you don't let go, pretend Vincent gets him out now, and
Speaker 2here he comes. Denon Kingley gets up the rail, Golden 60, they roar for their hometown hero, he's a length clear over Salios, running on Mother Earth, it's Golden 60, the locals can't beat him, the internationals can't beat him. This is his house,
Speaker 3Fortress Golden 60! Guesthouse bursting up the inside, Guesthouse moves up from music time, Streisand, Guesthouse won the slipper, Guesthouse beats Streisand, photo third, music time, Ka-Ying Rising stoked up, Purton says come on boy, show the Aussies what you've got, Ka-Ying Rising moved up to overpass, clear from Jimmy Starr, the Ka-Ying Rising champions do what others can't, he's going down, Saki joined
Speaker 4by Animo, who looks destiny in the face, at the 150, Animo takes the lead from Saki, alligator blood on Thunderstruck, but it's Animo clear, on Thunderstruck late, Animo holding on, Animo, this time for the big A, one from on Thunderstruck, Albonicoid, Wiggs down the middle, Kings will dream of the 100 and getting desperate, now Wiggs is storming home, Wiggs down on the top, oh it's just too good, the card beater!
Speaker 1I'm just another soul for sale, oh well, the page is out of print
Speaker 5G'day listeners and welcome back to the Racing Previews podcast, this weekend it is CFO Stakes Day which has been repositioned on this day for the last now two years including this one and we go back to Sandown as well for the Zipping Classic, it's rightful place, of course, it's been repositioned famous by a horse named Zipping, winning it four times, also got the Sandown guineas, thanks Nico for just clearing the chair,
Speaker 6should we start again or because Nico's just ruined the intro, what's going on, I was
Speaker 5going so well, excuse me, excuse me, excuse me, I was going so well there, the Hunter, the pop-up race is also on in Newcastle this weekend, it is, it has been a massive couple of weeks fellas, we've had Cox Plate into Cup Week, it's been go, go, go, all gas, no brakes, how have you pulled
Speaker 6up, I'm better now than I was last week, I was cast, I think Nico said a couple times last week that I was cast and I was, he was right, you were well and truly, but I'm fresh
Speaker 5now, you
Speaker 7would not have slept
Speaker 5well, two weeks ago Nico, you sounded like, you were dead, you weren't going to make it through
Speaker 7half an hour, I was actually a bit flat, cardiac arrhythmia, twice, yesterday and today, just reminiscing on the spring, a bit flat that I'm in the paddock right now to be honest, I'm full of beans, I could absolutely go again but, really, I don't think I could, I think it's good in theory. Whether, when, when push comes to shove on Saturday, if I was really, really ready to go again, I reckon, you know, maybe I just have a bit of paddock fever at the moment but, anyway, I think you're just excited for Perth. I am, I said this to my old man today, I said, the best part about this is, now that Melbourne's done, or sort of done, attending the track's done, so Melbourne's pretty much done for me, now it's all about just locking in to WA, I'm making WA very fruitful for myself and the listeners and I'm going to put in the work and I'm going to get the fruits and I, I can't wait, I can't wait, um, what's going on here Ben?
Speaker 5I just want to reposition that, that 365, nice and good for the camera mate.
Speaker 7That'll be an extra few hundred on the invoice for them. I doubt it. But, yeah, I'm really looking forward to WA, um, I haven't really bet early for a lot of the, the spring, I've sort of just done my form, waited and done a lot of my betting race day. Yeah. But, to say the least. Now that I've bet early this week. Understatement. The bullets have been fired, we're ready to launch responsibly and we're ready to make Perth our, uh, our whipping buoy, Bob. Absolutely. Plenty of, plenty of balls to fetch, plenty of cash to make.
Speaker 5There's lots of good horses running around in Perth this weekend.
Speaker 7This is essentially a moving day for Perth, this is like Turnbull Stakes Day for Perth. It is. This is the start of the.
Speaker 5There's lots of good progressive horses going around, look, a lot of them are, are quite short in the market, but, um, they look very, very likely.
Speaker 7We have done a, we have done a bit of damage to a few of them.
Speaker 5We have, um, and we'll get to our podcast multi. We'll get to that very, very much, uh, at the end of our podcast. However, we can reveal that there will be a few Perth legs in there. So I'm sure we do have a pretty good listenership over in the West and I'm sure a couple are hanging out for, for us to do some more sort of in-depth previews for Ascot. Um, coming up.
Speaker 7That's exactly where my focus is now, so.
Speaker 5Um, obviously we hope the punters out there had a, had a fruitful spring, uh, and if you haven't, there's still time to turn it around. Because we are only in the second week of November. We've got plenty of Perth racing coming up, international racing, Japan Cup, and even the Hong Kong international races. But we haven't been in here since Wednesday. So Oaks Day and also Champions Day have been run in one. Since we were last in this studio together, let's go through Oaks Day. And we're going to start with the best performance, I think, of the day in Proxima Dia, the Oaks winner. Tell us about it. How did she do it? She sat wide, she was too tough, and she looks a stayer for the future.
Speaker 6It was a great ride. I think perhaps Zach Lloyd's decision to move to the front of the race between the 1,800 meters and the 1,400 meters won her the race. I think she's the best horse in the race, no doubt. But I think that decision was tactically brilliant. And it might have won her the race, won them the race. Yeah, so she's run a figure of 96.1. So that's not a big figure. Like, let's be honest. It's not, I think, I think talks of the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup next year are premature and, and she'll have to approve herself more than what she has done. I mean, she, she was, she was better in the spring champion. Obviously circumstances didn't permit her running a better figure in the, in the Oaks, but she won and she paid, which was, which was nice. Absolutely, she paid. Yeah, no, it was, yeah, it was a great ride. And she's just so tough. I love her so much. It was great, great seeing, um, uh, Blacker, Rob, what was his name? Rob Blacker, have the second horse. Third, yeah. Gave Bott the trifecta. I didn't back it, obviously. How many times did it take it?
Speaker 7None. What did it pay? What did it pay to her? I think it paid
Speaker 6like $401, but it doesn't concern me. I didn't back her, I just backed the winner.
Speaker 5Yeah, she was very good and she's built like a stayer, isn't she? She's, she's going to really feel into her frame. Such a robot. You're happy with your, happy with
Speaker 7your $260 winner, not your $401. trifecta that you've got in order. He's, he's going well on the
Speaker 5tipping scene, Bott, recently. What other good performances were there on Oaks Day? Sequin was- No, no, just, just that, that's it. Was that the only one of note?
Speaker 7Well, Sequin led us down with a podcast
Speaker 6multi, Danny Sequin. I backed Semantics, which I think was a sicker thing to beat. It's been two Godolphin
Speaker 5sprinters over the last couple of days. Yeah, they're hateful, the blue army at the moment. I'll tell you what, Sequin has got one of the worst head carriages I've ever seen.
Speaker 6Oh, she's a head case, Lady Catalina, I think it's probably the first horse that, what's that train, uh, the, the owner's name?
Speaker 5Uh, John Stewart.
Speaker 6John Stewart. It's probably the, oh no, he's had that, he's had that thing that's by Booker. That's, uh. Uh, Erno. Erno. That's right.
Speaker 7Yeah. But he's, he's ROI on that thing is well minus. Yeah. He paid fricking 3 million or something for it.
Speaker 6First, first, uh, uh, a black type win for, uh, for Tom Stewart or whatever you said he's. John Stewart. John Stewart. Shout out to Tom from Geelong. Yeah. Um, no, yeah, but I, I think. Um, I think semantics and Sequin will be, uh, uh, a better horses than it in time. And, and, you know, the betting reflects that on, on Saturday, they're racing in the thoroughbred club stakes or whatever it's called. And, uh, there's a few, a few of them Nishioka. We'll get to her later. Um, she was excellent.
Speaker 7How did Lady Catalina get beat at, at Cranbourne on Crocs Plate Eve by Handy? Who, the ambulance was beeping at that same race last week. Kieran Marr, Kieran Marr.
Speaker 5That's why he can set 'em, he can set 'em and he can also. Knock 'em down. Ruin my day. Yeah. Um, I feel like, I feel like.
Speaker 7To be fair, we've, we've had a bit of a hard luck this spring carnival. Oh, a hundred percent.
Speaker 5There, there have been some big, well, there have been some, oh, shut up, there, there have been some, um, some bubbles burst, I'll say. Serious, serious bubbles burst and.
Speaker 6Yeah, I mean, it's gambling.
Speaker 5Horses go under.
Speaker 7Oh, that is gambling. But. Yeah, but the fuck some of these fall reversals, like, fuck me.
Speaker 6Yeah, I mean, racing is, is as hard as it, as it is good.
Speaker 7Tempted has beaten Ka-Ying Rising and then has.
Speaker 6Yeah. Which is why racing is so good if it was, if it was easy.
Speaker 7No, it, it just further proves that the Everest was a disgrace. No, it does.
Speaker 5We'll get to that shortly, but I feel like you're not quite giving Proxima Deo the flowers. No, no, you know why, you know why. It was one of, it was one of the toughest wins I've seen. It was good.
Speaker 7He's not giving her the flowers she deserves because he's hell bent on not believing in her and that she's better than Montefiglia. He's hell bent on that. He doesn't care about that. He, he is, he's got an ego and he wants to be right like me. I do not care what you think. You know what, you know what, Montefiglia couldn't win an Oak, so she's taken one step from my straight, my statement being right.
Speaker 6No, I, I think that she's a really nice filly and, and she was being better previously, but. And she was great. She was tough. Visually, it was, you know, it was one of those ones where they just keep kicking. She almost put time at the 400. They just keep kicking for you and you just fucking lift them over the line. Last 600 meters, she'd run through walls for you. Stuck into them. Yep, she just wanted to fetch her ball. It's like over in the UK when they get real stuck into one real early. It was like that. So you can cheer them home for like a good 40 seconds. It's way better than cheering one for a turn of foot because it's five seconds and it's done. Yeah, I'm home. But the Oaks, while you're cheering it for 40 seconds.
Speaker 5Speaking of that, Matty Hill, great caller. Yeah. The best in Australia right now. I've never seen him miss a horse completely like he did Ray Magnerio in the last. It'd be hard to not be fair. It was hard to see him. Don't get me wrong. He finished like a flash. I reckon Matt has just focused on, he's probably got the binoculars out or he's just looking at the front. He probably gave up on Ray at the 400. And I reckon a lot of punters did. So there's no knocks on him for doing that, but it's not too often Matt Hill misses the winner completely until the 50 meter mark.
Speaker 6I mean, the fact that you're even mentioning it is the proof. Yeah, for sure. Like the horse has finished an 11 flat last 200 meters. He never looked like winning. And he was a big drifter on the day too, I think.
Speaker 7Could have had him back to the field.
Speaker 6Yeah, no, I definitely.
Speaker 5Yeah, I was against him, but he was clearly the class horse and he did get to a reasonable price.
Speaker 6Off to the West, is he? He's off to the West. That'll be interesting. He won the gold rush last year, didn't he? Yeah. He did.
Speaker 5He beat Cosmic Crusader over the 1400.
Speaker 6Fuck. Ah, yeah.
Speaker 5It's pretty crazy to think now, isn't it? I guess, I guess that is 1400. Let's go to champions day. We'll go to the three group ones. First and foremost, Point Barrow was able to take out the champion sprints. She was a good performance bot. Big new career peak for her.
Speaker 6Not a big new career peak. It was a pretty, look, I'm going to, I'm going to preface this by saying that obviously you know, her winning was through Tempted and Jolly Star and others alike underperforming, but it was, it, her running to that number was pretty, it wasn't, it was, it wasn't unexpected. Like her running 101.6 is, is, was pretty easy to forecast really. Like she was always going to run a peak here. It just wasn't, you just wouldn't have expected Tempted and Jolly Star to, to regress four lengths on their, on their previous start. And I think, you know, much. Much has been sort of discussed about, you know, what might've, um, been. I've got a bit to say about this. Yeah. And I think, I think the, the straight cops so much shit, like you just, you just hear people talking about like on Twitter, but you know, you don't listen to people on Twitter because you know, a lot of people talk a lot of shit there, but, um, people say, oh, this isn't a straight horse after it loses one time than a straight. No, sometimes horses can just run badly. Like it's always this, like no horse has ever been beaten on merits down the straight. It's always the straight. It's always the straight's fault. Like it just does me like.
Speaker 7It just throws up results.
Speaker 6Sometimes. No, it doesn't. Every, every track throws up results. Yeah. Some horses are better suited
Speaker 5to some tracks than other
Speaker 6tracks. Sometimes for sure.
Speaker 5And it's no, it's no different.
Speaker 7It just throws up, it throws up more results. I've got an, I've
Speaker 5got an unbiased and a factual, uh, statement around the track and around the aeration. So down the straight, the outside four lanes were aerated.
Speaker 7But Liam does. He does every single
Speaker 5meeting he does, but when the rail is out on the final day of stakes day, there's a little, there's less, uh, sort of runway to play with when they come down the straight. So those outside lanes are inferior. So why they aerate the outside lanes is that they don't want it to be too firm, too hard.
Speaker 7If he doesn't aerate it, it's a two lane highway and everyone's going to get there. And punters are going to be
Speaker 5listening to this podcast and go, why is, why is it so much harder and firmer down the outside? Why is it a firm two out there? And a good three down the middle or a good four down the middle. It's because they have lots of
Speaker 7sort of, um, the
Speaker 5machinery and any cars, uh, on that lane when they come out onto the track, which compacts the ground. So the
Speaker 7easiest way to
Speaker 5explain compaction is you've got a bit of mud in your hands. You put it into a ball. It gets a lot harder. You throw it against a wall. It goes everywhere, splats everywhere, and it becomes less compact and less firm. So you've got to make sure that it's not, you've got to make sure that it's not, you've got to make sure that it's not too hard. What aerating the track does is it loosens up the ground and you know, it turns it into what could be a firm two into much choppier sort of ground. And when you do get a rain as well, on top of that, it becomes much inferior going. When Marzu came out the main leader and he sort of made a beeline for not those outside four lanes, but outside enough, I feel like a lot of them just followed him. And because Mark Zara was, was riding it. A 20 to one shot, he was able to ride that horse for luck. He didn't have a target on his back and go back towards the inside and win the race. I think potentially the Sydney jockeys, you know, jolly star and tempted, maybe they had their hands tied to some degree because they were just following the speed Marzu and maybe they didn't have anywhere else to go. But I feel like if they had their time again and they knew how inferior that extreme outside was, they might've ridden a little bit differently.
Speaker 7Yeah, well, it's hard to know.
Speaker 5And people will say, oh, but Ray Magnero won down the extreme outside on the Thursday, but we had a fair bit of rain going into the Saturday and it was the last day of the carnival. So I just think those outside lines were quicksand because jolly star and tempted hit the, hit the front just about, didn't they bot at the 400 and then they just look like they stopped like shot ducks.
Speaker 6Yeah. I, I dunno, sometimes they just, there's obviously that there's so many different variables that go into them running how they did. I think, I think it annoys me when people say it's, it's always down to one thing. It's, it's impossible to say that really.
Speaker 5They, they might, they raced a little bit flat as well. Yeah. She's pulled up with AIPH.
Speaker 6Yeah. Well, that's probably more to the point.
Speaker 7Well, to me, like.
Speaker 5But jolly star's underperformed as well.
Speaker 7She has underperformed, but tempted was clearly in front and she stopped like she was shot. So like there's every chance that the AIPH, like there's every chance that that was a massive contributing factor, not just the track. But at the end of the day, that's, that's racing. And that just comes back to the straight. Sometimes it can be so simple and so easy and you just hit it for six, like we did on Derby day down the straight, you know, sometimes the two best horses can just, just run like the next episode. And, um, St. Gothard and you think, fuck, how easy is this? And sometimes you have results like the weekend where full credit to, to point Barrow and plaintiff, but they're not half the horse that are. And that, that, that, that, that sort of thing happens. It's just more prone to happening down the straight. And that's just, that's just racing.
Speaker 5Unfortunately, plaintiff running second and, you know, beating tempted owned by a length, a length and a half was the, when tempted stopped.
Speaker 7And I saw plaintiff and I thought Geordie was, I knew Geordie was on it. I was, I was cheering plaintiff cause I thought, oh, here we go. Plaintiff is actually a good horse, but she is a good horse, but that is track bias related. But opportunities and track bias is what AIDS results in racing. And that's just how it goes.
Speaker 5So point Barrow potential Royal Ascot aspirations next year. But could you see her winning?
Speaker 6No, no, no,
Speaker 5she's not good enough that I'm like, we don't, we like to
Speaker 6say they're sprinters a shit, but they're not, they're not like, they're not that bad.
Speaker 5This is still a decent performance.
Speaker 6Yeah, not really fair enough. I mean, it's okay, but she wouldn't be, she wouldn't, she's not up there with some of our best chance. I mean, next episode is going over there. He'll belt her.
Speaker 5Hopefully. Is that, is that on the cards? Yeah, I'd be back in the next episode.
Speaker 7I hope the punter that, I hope the punter that chirped me in the bathroom, who, uh, he knew that I had cutting rising tattered on my leg and he knew that I backed tempted heavily. And, uh, he tried to tell me that point Barrow, he tried to, he tried to tell me that point Barrow was as an easy bet. It had the superior form lines for beating Browder Waltz and he should get it tattered on his leg. So hopefully, hopefully that fuckwit goes and follows through with it and goes against point Barrow tattered on his leg.
Speaker 5I'm sure. He's a loyal listener. Shout out to him.
Speaker 7If he is or isn't, I couldn't give a fuck.
Speaker 5Uh, Autumn Glow, she won a very slowly run champions mile. The pace was set by Lindemann, the stadium mate.
Speaker 7The powder puff champion as some call her.
Speaker 5Well, she's one of the only horses, this preparation in Australia, who is unbeaten for the spring. I think she might be the only one actually.
Speaker 7Easy to knock the winner.
Speaker 5Unless there might be a few that have only had one or two starts, but Autumn Glow, unbeaten for the spring, she sits outside a very soft tempo and sprints home very fast here. But she does pull up with a post-race veterinary excuse lame in the left four leg, but apparently that's all under control. Now tell us what she did.
Speaker 6Uh, they walked for the first half mile and the pace went on at about the 800 meters and she just quickened and the race was over. Once they started, once they entered the straight, they were all too far back. Lindemann was there, but you know, everyone always knew that Autumn Glow and then the cameraman out there. The producer certainly thought that Autumn Glow was going straight on by, but you know, when they did it, it wasn't, it wasn't comfortable yet at all. Like I, I knew that Ben had had a sizable bet in this thing and I was, obviously I wasn't involved. I didn't, I didn't have a bet, but I was like, I was cheering for Benny cause I knew it had an absolute go at this thing. And I was, and my, my, I clenched when the camera was like,
Speaker 5what are you fucking doing? I was clenching. And Linda. Kevin's a tough nut to crack
Speaker 6on his day and he's beaten her home before.
Speaker 5He was kicking. Well, he's had such a soft time of it in the first 800 meters, as Bot said, that he's always going to show a strong kick. And I think we can say for sure now that he doesn't get around Caulfield. He's duck eggs there. He just doesn't seem to handle the turns and the up and downs of Caulfield. But I think he's finished second in the Australian Cup at Flamington. Has he? Was it Jewess that beat him? Fuck, that's a long time ago. Did he really run second in that? Well, he might have run a placing, I reckon.
Speaker 6Has he been around? I guess he is seventh.
Speaker 5Actually, I'd need to look it up. Maybe I'm getting mixed up between him and Think It Over.
Speaker 6Think It Over was there. Yeah, that's a long, I wouldn't have been him.
Speaker 5Maybe it wasn't Lindemann. I reckon he has run at Flamington or maybe, oh, he did run. I was in year 12 that year. No way. Yeah, sorry. Maybe I'm getting mixed up between him and the other horse that Nash used to ride for Kerry Parker. Yeah. But back to Autumn Glow. I've had a significant better on her, right? I'm happy to share.
Speaker 7You and the other boys. I'm happy to share.
Speaker 5I've never had a five-figure bet in my life up until Saturday. I have now. It was about $11,000 in total at an average price of just over $1.40. And I watched it with a guy who had her going for-
Speaker 7Aptly named. This was what was going to happen if she got beat, going broke.
Speaker 5Going broke, exactly right. It would have been-
Speaker 7That would have been a mad bet.
Speaker 5It would have been- That's so good. Oh, it's just one. And I watched it with- The third horse. The third horse is called Brutal Reality and
Speaker 6the fourth one's Bank Keeping.
Speaker 5Horse, you reckon?
Speaker 6Oh, Greyhound. Whatever they're called.
Speaker 5We're watching dogs here. I watched it with a bloke who had Autumn Glow going for six figures, right? He saved off a little bit on her. So, Ruddy- Good man. He's a good man. He listens to the podcast. He had some futures malt he's going.
Speaker 7Who is it? Ruddy. James Rudd. Did you see his story? He was trying to debate with me that the whole narrative that you should never meet your heroes is such a false philosophy that people have. And I said, no, I can't be your hero. He goes, Nick, go.
Speaker 5It was good to meet him and some of the crew. He was a great man.
Speaker 7We had a few drinks.
Speaker 5And we watched the race together.
Speaker 7He's got ice in his veins, Mark, because- Mate, that's exactly what I was about to say. He wasn't pumped up. When I said to him, I said, are you feeling all right? And he's like, what? I said, brother, you just collected fucking six figures. You can show a bit of emotion.
Speaker 5We watched it together and I was sort of like, not commentating throughout the race, but I was like being like, you know, this is looking good. Whatever. And mate, I felt pretty calm, but for someone who had a collect going for that big, he felt even calmer. So shout out to Ruddy. We had a bit of a side bet. He wanted to lay some off and he gave me a good price. So I had the private bet with him. Part of his multi was $13 for Stormy Marco and the Futures in the Derby, which was partly thanks to Bot as well. So he wanted to give thanks to us. He does listen. And I wanted to-
Speaker 7He did construction. He did construct these multis through listening.
Speaker 5Yeah, through listening and whatever. But I wanted to give a shout out to James as well and thank him for giving us a good price. Nico, you even managed to get a bit of $1.30 yourself.
Speaker 7The boys gave me a bit of a sling for getting the bet on for them. I got the $1.30 in the ring. How good? We went with a few big wads of cash. Five figures went down and the boys got the chocolates. That was good. But yeah, I was still distraught. I had my biggest bet in 18 months on Tempted. My biggest bet since noon. There you go. And I was completely and utterly on the floor. You should stop having your biggest bets because that- No, I've actually banned Flemington Hags. That's Nature's Trip and Tempted.
Speaker 5And when they cut to the head on, I had a good feeling that she was going to win, but it wasn't like-
Speaker 7I gave her a roar when she lengthened in front. I thought, oh fuck, we are on here. On. She was only a
Speaker 5length in front, maybe three quarters of a length in front at like the 250 when they went to that camera angle and it was just like, what are you doing, man?
Speaker 6It was definitely intentional too, because I think what they were thinking- because they're obviously not racing people that were doing it, because my understanding is it's the VRC, they employ different people that do it for the rest of the year. And they're obviously not racing people, but they know this horse is the best horse in Australia and then they thought that it was all over. Let's get the cinematic shot. They wanted the cinematic shots front on, but no one fucking wants that. We want to see it go past.
Speaker 5You can do that after the race.
Speaker 6Oh, I was watching it with my mom and we both got up from the chair and, what are you doing? Yeah, it was terrible.
Speaker 5Yeah. Birdman, he now goes, uh, 2-1 over Cosmic Crusader, um, at 1800 meters plus. They are two all officially this spring with Cosmic Crusader beating him home in the Memsie. That was over 1400 meters, but this wasn't run as fast as the Cox Plate Bot, which probably suited Birdman's change up speed because all in all, he probably does have a better turn of foot than Cosmic Crusader off this sort of race shape.
Speaker 6Yeah. 20 lengths slower than the Cox Plate at the same point, which was 1000 meter mark, which is the halfway point. Uh, yeah, just as such a different way of racing.
Speaker 5It didn't look like slow, slow to the eye. No, it didn't.
Speaker 6I guess it didn't because Land Legend still was able to get a reasonably easy lead. But I mean, I was looking at the sectionals and I, I sort of knew that they weren't going very fast. Um, yeah, he's just got the best sprint and he was too good. Um, brilliant ride, Ben Mallon. Yeah. Excellent ride. Cosmic. I mean, they're the best they've proven now that those are the two best middle distance horses we have.
Speaker 5100%. Um, Eliana finding trouble and not quickening staying at 2000 meters. Yeah. I mean, she's overrated.
Speaker 7I don't know. She's overrated at 2000 meters against these horses. She's not going to win.
Speaker 5You get what you get and you don't get upset, Nico. Take her to the Caulfield Cup. She's a 2400 meter horse, Chris.
Speaker 7I'm not one to, I'm not one to shy away from the outlandish statement. She's overrated at 2000. She's overrated at 2000 meters. She doesn't, she can't beat these horses. She cannot beat these horses at 2000 meters. She's overrated if they're going to continue to run her at that, at that trip. She's a stay up.
Speaker 5Well, she can beat them. Well, she can't. She's. Well, she can. She can. She can. Yeah, well. She did beat Lindemann in a randvit going back to.
Speaker 7Oh, fuck me.
Speaker 5Come on. That was only by a very short margin. Sir Delius was given a sore back that day. Look, she's run well with his preparation, but.
Speaker 7What do we make of Sir Delius?
Speaker 5It just, it just feels like there's a bit of a gaping hole.
Speaker 7Something's still not right with him. He's carrying his head weird. He was better. He was better, but he's still not right. Still got improvement to come.
Speaker 5Oh. Is, is, is Sir Delius looking for the mile and a half?
Speaker 7He's probably. Are they, are they keeping him in training, getting him ready for the autumn now? They're just going to run him right through. Oh, they're taking him to Hong Kong.
Speaker 6Yeah. I think the plan is to go to Hong Kong. I was being facetious. I think, I think. Long way to go for a barrier trial. I've heard a bit of commentary around Eliana that she's an autumn horse. And that is the most ridiculous fucking thing.
Speaker 7Ever. Well, but with mares, with, with mares. Oh. I don't, I don't necessarily agree with it.
Speaker 6Sometimes, sometimes you just have to listen to things that people say and you just have to take a step back and you just think. Some, some mares. Like use common sense for like just a second and think. Some mares can be a bit seasonal. No, no. She was as, she was as good as she's ever been using the figures that I use. She was as good as she's ever been under a mile and a half over 2000 meters last start in the Cox Plate. That's as good as she can go. Over 2000 meters. And then, and that's fine. She's, that's a good number, but it has nothing to do whether if it's in the autumn or the
Speaker 5She's been, she's been racing against better horses full stop. And I just don't think she quickens like Cosmic Crusader and Birdman at, at 2000. She hits a bit of a flat spot in her races. And I just think she's looking for more ground.
Speaker 7Yeah. Unbeaten. Some fillies of mares are.
Speaker 5Unbeaten at 2400 meters. And you're telling me she hasn't raced in a Caulfield Cup yet. It's just too hard on them. I'm going to win. I'm going to walk out of this room and just, just too hard on them. Bury my face in the sand. If Aliana doesn't go to the Caulfield Cup in 2027.
Speaker 7Well, you're already invested. So we know you're cheering with your wallet again. Are you actually?
Speaker 5It's $21. I'll put her in a couple.
Speaker 7So bad. You are just asking. What's the definition of insanity? What? Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
Speaker 5After she wins the tanker next year, Waller, Waller will have no other choice. She's going to get 56 and a half in the Caulfield Cup next year.
Speaker 6Are you berating him on Twitter? You reckon that's going to do something, is it? No, I don't. Cause that's worked for the last five years.
Speaker 7I hope you've had enough on because they might have to take her to the, uh, the mayor's sale mid year. You might have to buy her. You're telling me if she beats Point of Law
Speaker 5in a tanker, that she's not going to a Caulfield
Speaker 7Cup. She won't.
Speaker 5She won't go to the Caulfield Cup. She won't beat Point of Law.
Speaker 7Well, I'll just tell you this right now. I wouldn't have thought Plainfield Cup would win. Plainfield would have beaten Tempted, but here we are.
Speaker 5I'll just tell you this right now, but you, you didn't give Proxima Deo her flowers. She's $8 for the Caulfield Cup all in right now. And Aliana's 21. Fair enough. Thank you. Um, quick poll. At least one, at least one might get to the race. Cosmic Crusader. One ticket might be live. Birdman. Who's the better horse?
Speaker 7Well, I actually had something on both of them on Saturday.
Speaker 5Oh, well there's no time for trumpeting here. I was just asking. Who the better horse is. I backed them both as well.
Speaker 7Thank you. Are you just going to get, are you going to give me a scenario where I'm going to pick from like, or are you just going to say you just, you've got your life, your line of horse races for you. You pick one.
Speaker 5Yeah. Pick one.
Speaker 7I think Cosmic Crusader is more, I think Cosmic Crusader has got less. Hurry up. I'm trying to think of the way to articulate it. I would go Cosmic Crusader. He's more versatile. I think he's got, yeah, he's got more versatility. Birdman needs a few more things. Like. It needs it to be relatively dry. He needs the tempo and the race shape to be run in a certain way. Cosmic Crusader's a bit more, he can have a little bit more.
Speaker 5Birdman. You're going Birdman? They're both very good horses. I think on the normal race shape at 2000, you'd probably have Birdman. However, I think Cosmic Crusader gets the tick for me because he's won at 1200 this prep. He's won at 14. He's won at 2000. He went to a Caulfield Cup, ran fourth and won a Cox Plate. So he just gets the nod.
Speaker 7And he's going to go race at 16, 18 and 1400 in WA. How good. Champion. Wild. Wild. 61 kilos in a railway. I think there's something to sort of think about here with Birdman. He's progressively gotten better each preparation he's been here. So I don't reckon, it'd be interesting to see if there's still more furnishing for him to do. Yeah, for sure. Next preparation and even next spring. You've got to think that we haven't seen the best of him just yet. A horse we probably haven't seen the
Speaker 5best of just yet is Pinhole, who bolted him with the Queen Elizabeth. Started around the $2.50 mark, fixed odds, $2.60. The punters wanted to be all over him and they were right on the line. They've roared him hard.
Speaker 6Second favourite moment of Cup Week, just behind the big owner.
Speaker 5He's put three lengths on them. Jay Mack has ridden him. The big owner. He's, that was so good. That's, that could be.
Speaker 7Do you know how many views that's got? Oh mate. Fucking 300,000. 300,000. Do we actually know how much percentage she's got? I'd love to. Can someone find that out? I don't think she's my racehorse.
Speaker 5I don't think she is. No, obviously not. She can't be.
Speaker 6What happened was, I think my racehorse owned like 30 or 40%. Yeah. And she's like one of the owners that actually owns it. And she doesn't want to be, she wants to distinguish herself from the plebs that obviously own micro shares. Can you give us a pout?
Speaker 5How does she do it? Oh my God. That. Can you do it again? There's a chance. No, you got it once. Come on, let's go again. There's a chance. There's a chance that's being clicked off.
Speaker 7Oh, that is really. I do the, I do the clicking.
Speaker 5It's up to my discretion. Is that a chair wolf winning at Belmont? Okay. A chair wolf.
Speaker 6Um, yeah, no, that was good. Um, the, uh, it's just the best when they, um, the, the 18 year old punters wearing the green hats on the line, just raw on home. You and your mates. I was like you two years ago, bro. Yeah. Well. It's still him now. It's me now. I love it. I love that. Like Giga Kick winning last year, same sort of raw in the rain, brought him home. Every single 18 to 20 year old punter was on Giga Kick last year. So, so how good is, how good is Pinhole? Um, he's pretty good. I, I, I think he would have ran sort of, I mean, if he was there, I thought he might have run sort of top five in a Melbourne cup. He was, um, he's a really nice horse. It's been a good week for horses that have run midfield in the Queens Vars at Ascot. He was heavily supported. I remember last year in the Queens Vars. Um, uh, ran eighth and point of war ran fourth this year. Well beaten, heavily supported too.
Speaker 5He's a stayer with a decent turn of foot, which helps in Australia, doesn't it?
Speaker 6Yeah. He's a, he's a really nice horse. Um, he's improving all the time.
Speaker 5Nick Noonan was saying he could be the Caulfield cup winner next year. Can you say it?
Speaker 6Um, yeah. Yeah. I could say it.
Speaker 7I think he's probably, um. Jamex hitching his wagon to, uh, to Pinhole's Melbourne cup hopes next year. I think, I think. That's his horse. He's going to try and build up and get a result out of.
Speaker 6I mean, he would have been really well placed this year. He wouldn't have won because the winner was spectacular, but he might've run second or third or, or, or thereabouts.
Speaker 5And two down discreet. Well, this was just one of the most sickening defeats I've ever seen in the matriarch.
Speaker 7Um. How does, how does that horse get beat on, uh. It took $5. How does that horse get lapped at Kighton on Wednesday?
Speaker 6I don't know how. Well, he was beaten by Virtuous Circle by seven lengths. She's gone from a. Ah, the super star.
Speaker 5She's gone from running on a heavy eight track to a back to back. So like a, to be fair, the track race more like a, it was between a good three and a good four at Flemington on Saturday. So the rain didn't really come. Um, just sickening result though. Two down discreet. That's what happens sometimes though. But when you do have that sort of racing pattern.
Speaker 6Yeah. I missed the start and was just out the back and, um, they went really quickly early. So, I mean, the winner was, um, brave and, and it was on the quick backup. Obviously I think it was the three day back.
Speaker 5Stuffer. She shouldn't have won.
Speaker 6Oh, fuck. It was. It was like the, yeah,
Speaker 5that half an hour, two down discreet into tempted. My heart was on the ground.
Speaker 6Well, I just, um, yeah, I only had two bets on Saturday, but they both lost. Two down discreet should've won. If you're not was terrible. Wasn't it? Was there an excuse for him?
Speaker 5Don't think so.
Speaker 6Is it him or him? Yeah. Yeah. I didn't say, I don't, I don't think that. Well, he was just terrible. Yeah, he was terrible. The two year old's pretty good. There's been a couple of two year old races this year. And I think that, I mean, oh, it's very small sample. I was a bit half dirty that I didn't back.
Speaker 7So in the end, actually, so was I, not that I'm a big two year old punter, but you just knew that these Hayes horses are very professional. They're so good. And it was a pretty dominant wind. There was everything to say that the race experience was going to be good. You knew that Flemington was going to be no issue coming from the Hayes stable and fucking $3 and it's pissed in dirty.
Speaker 5I didn't know if the debut was actually going to be decent enough. Royal press ran second to it. On debut ends up running second to it again, this time bait in a long way.
Speaker 6No Royal press was second to the Amelia thing. Yeah. Royal pressure.
Speaker 5Oh, sorry. It was second to, um, Amelia.
Speaker 6I think, I think the Hayes boys with two roles are as dominant with their early season. Two year olds is what cured Marries and sort of staying races. Like they are so much better than anyone else at training two year olds. And in this before Christmas, they win everything every single year. They are so good. And you see all these horses and people say, well, they don't train on, well, maybe, but it's because they're so well-trained that they're so professional. They just get it right. Like this horse, you get it right. As a two year old, you also don't need to train them. Exactly. This horse might not even, you know, this might be the best figure he's ever run in, for the rest of his career, but you know, he's won two races, the two year old, you know, this is a $400,000, $400,000 race. So they get it so right.
Speaker 7The punt road crew are doing a very good job. Johnny O'Neill. Yeah. They've hit some targets, haven't they? Well, they've, they've put their, and the punt road boys, the Richmond tiger boys, they've put their money where their mouth is. Oh, is that what it is? Is it? Punt road syndications is, or Johnny O'Neill is the, he's the managing owner of it, but it's a lot of the Richmond footballers that are in it.
Speaker 5There was a, there was a bit of a football flavor there on Saturday, wasn't there? With Birdman being owned by Mark Murphy, Paddy Cripps.
Speaker 7Yeah, all the, all the, um. All the baggers boys. Chris Jubb also in the ownership. Chris Jubb was in Point of Law as well. Is he? Yeah. There you go. It's a hard life at the moment. At the top. No, but I don't, I never discourage anyone that puts, especially puts lots of money in. They deserve lots of success. So. 100%. It's a hard enough game as it is.
Speaker 5Let's move on. Uh, that was a bit of a Oaks Day and Champions Day wrapped up, but it is C4 Stakes Day this Saturday at Sandown and bought. It's so bloody good to be back at Sandown. Is it? For this meeting. Yeah, it is. Cause this, this meeting belongs, this meeting belongs at Sandown. It was always there. Uh, obviously Caulfield's gone through. It's gone through a bit of a minor renovation at the moment, I believe.
Speaker 7But Ethan's had it cut too. They already cut it after, after the last. Really? And Adzer and I walked across, played a bit of fetch up the straight.
Speaker 5There you go.
Speaker 7Um. They're already cutting it.
Speaker 5Forecast this week is cool conditions. Uh, it'll be a good four though. It could even be upgraded to a good three, but it's not going to be hot. It's more so mild 18 degrees on Saturday. Doesn't look like we'll get too much rain. Interesting thing with this track is they are going to apply the cutaway rail, which means. You've obviously got the hillside track where, which we're on Sandown hillside, and you've got the lake side when they get to the 500 meter mark. The thoroughbred club stakes
Speaker 7is on the lake side. Oh, that's on the lake
Speaker 5side because there's no 1200 start on the hillside. Um, but the cutaway means the rail will basically disappear. We'll go to the inside once they approach the home turn and it'll join.
Speaker 7Anyone's watched like scone and New South Wales racing or, or, um, winter WA racing, the cutaway is there.
Speaker 5It's interesting. It's going to be an interesting setup. So basically the leaders might be on the rail until they get to the home turn. And then the inside to their left opens up. It could create some interesting racing
Speaker 7because limited watching of, uh, cutaway races, it's not like it's a sprint land in the trots. No, not a lot of horses ever just go to go to the cutaway.
Speaker 5I remember, um, Craig Williams tried to do it on Keats and the PD young going back a few years and it ended up getting run down anyway. But I don't know whether that saved him any ground or whatever, whether he would've finished, um, any further back if he didn't do that, but it's going to be interesting viewing. So if you are on the punt this Saturday, just make sure you do know that it'll probably mean less bad luck horses will be able to settle in behind, grab a bit of cover and then peel towards the inside or outside, so it's going to be interesting. Anyway, uh, Sandy on race number one, uh, and this market is brought to you by bet three, six, five. They'll be doing their top type plus 10% off across all winning points. Place markets and also the exotic markets. And they'll be doing the 25% winnings plus boost across races at Sandy on a Newcastle. It knew say a $3 20 favorite from Mr. O'Reilly for 50 for your own good $7 federal eight bucks and John it's $10 in this, um, handicap over the 2,400 meters.
Speaker 6But it's new, sir, is my first bet of the day. It's a half brother to Suntora. Um, he was formerly trained by Nick Ryan and I don't know. with now. Anyway. leave that there yep i don't know why i brought that up i just started talking and i didn't stop um flemington last start it was beaten by yours and the pace was slow there and got way too far back from a wide barrier i think they might press the button third up over a mile and a half and i think he's a lot better than these really nice horse last a second second ever start it was um in a very slow race there at caulfield and um just beat him for a turn of speed and i think um look i think this race could there's a chance it could get away from him if they don't go forward obviously um mr or not mr o'reilly that's the course on the caulfield cup um no it is mr i'm thinking of master mr o'reilly um there's a there's a chance that he might just get away with it going forward but i'm just hoping that they go forward with him and even if they don't i think he's good enough to uh to win anyway i like it's just a third up i think i make him about a 260 chance you've
Speaker 5tip itch news on this podcast before i believe did
Speaker 6i i might have backed him in his second start when he won yeah i reckon you did i reckon you did i think there's yeah 15s in that day or something
Speaker 5yeah uh we move on to race number five and this is the sandown guineas over the mile and it's a very very open affair five dollars 50 the field in this one and magna sententia is that five dollar fifty favorite got into four dollars sixty but he's just back up and running again and he's got a on the drift now from star of massad and six dollars consulate's been five out to six dollars fifty harry lime was well supported the other day it's nine into seven dollars fifty and strong tempo is eight dollars fifty and uh open much shorter earlier today as well difficult race spot but i believe you have found the
Speaker 6favorite is he favorite yeah he is i look i think this this three-year-old group away from a select few is is pretty terrible to be honest um you know the star of massadens and the milson's points and the harry limes of this group are pretty terrible in this world you know they're serviceable but they're not very good and um uh with a horse that's ascending through the grades very quickly like magna sententia even though if it hasn't like you know when i made a secondary meeting at geelong last start on a saturday but it did so by five lengths and ran time i think i'll go forward on it here and um you know tage we're so far in her career he's hitting some targets i think with dean yendall i think they've had nine starters together they've won five and run second twice so i think i'm reading between the lines a little bit but when they've got one set up to win they are and this is on the quick backup and i think it's a nice horse and i think it'll go um it's they haven't set a pretty they haven't set a high bar and i think it can leap it magna sententia it's a half brother to dark bonnie who races in the zippy classic how do you know all this shit just i just remember the mums i just remember the mums for some reason they just they just remind i just see him and they just remember them i don't know why but i just do
Speaker 5that's just crazy it's by written by who won a blue diamond that's as far as i go let's move on to race number six and this is uh the doveton stakes over the flying 1000 meters run under handicapped conditions not a bad little sprint race bretta morley our three dollar 20 favorite over from south australia gee it was so close to getting the job done last time at from don't hope to six dollars oak hill seven dollars uh lake forest seven dollars fifty for marine haggis and peloton is eight dollars fifty nico i'll start with you mate
Speaker 7what are we up to race
Speaker 5number six i think you had
Speaker 7a bet no race seven race six about well i i can talk about this fuck that
Speaker 6up bretta mall uh is a nice horse and only if you gotta have a bet this
Speaker 5race ben i thought you you do like your south australian sprinters you do
Speaker 7dropped off them a long time ago all
Speaker 5the ones in the bulldogs colors lose somewhere more yeah
Speaker 7i didn't back him for his last couple of wins either there you go nice he's hardly he's hardly an adelaide orson he always lives
Speaker 6in victoria yeah flemington favorites a nice horse i think i think oak hill um was back and wide on a day he didn't want to be last time i don't like the race but if i was going to have a better to be oak hill
Speaker 5beautiful seven bucks under damien lane which is a good segue because he also rides the favorite in the thoroughbred club stakes and this is for our three-year-old phillies this one and they put a fair bit of prize money on i reckon it's a million dollar race it is from memory natural fling four dollars twenty is she over the top does she run a strong 1200 meters those are the questions you need to ask but they are having a throw at the stumps given the good prize money afari six dollars fifty from sequined seven dollars fifty stuffer i hope she doesn't win this race or it has to 750 and kieran stars there's been 11s in the race so that's a good run to eight dollars fifty we've also got another cup winner a cup week winner i should say caddington 11s and cheyenne is 13 semantics 15s and angels fury 19s caddington
Speaker 6won on cox plate day oh did she it's been a long couple weeks i don't blame
Speaker 5you i just they just all feel like the same yeah week given they were all at flemington i remember she was a flemington winner look natural fling is an interesting starting point and she has to be your starting point
Speaker 7she's not your start she's an easy she bottomed out
Speaker 5in the cornwall and i'm trying to think of an excuse and i can't really she did get a little
Speaker 7bit keen there do you want
Speaker 5me to give you
Speaker 7one what nfg she's overrated she's not that good unfortunately which hurts me to say i don't think she's uh i think she got away with the races that she got away
Speaker 5that was against the a graders and this
Speaker 7is yeah but i just think she's doing far too much wrong in her races she's got no hope she's got no hope of running strong races at any sort of respectable level while she still does what she's doing she's a control freak who can't settle so and she's been up forever like i think she's i love her as a horse and i hope she just has is just just in this little rut at the moment she you know whatever happens on saturday she comes back next preparation and she looks like the horse that i think she can be but there's every chance that i thought she was is the horse she's not yeah because you can't run if she yeah she needs to become tractable she can't just be all speed all you know all speed no brakes because you're not going to win races because people are going to know racing against her that we can put a little bit of pressure on you and you're one dimensional and you'll go pop yeah there's plenty of sprinters
Speaker 5like that i think there's a little bit of value in the price of a fari here i thought her run i thought her run was a little bit of value in the price of a fari here i thought her run last night in the vanity behind regal ambition was excellent she got into a really bad position off a slow tempo and look regular ambition still quick and better than her but her late stuff was very very good she arguably should have finished a bit closer to regular ambition she comes back to the 1200 meters here which is a slight knock i wish j mac was riding her rather than cheyenne especially given it's barrier one but i think she's on top for me
Speaker 6but uh not for me who
Speaker 5do
Speaker 6like i roused who i think will settle prominently to the speed and um will improve again dangerous uh semantics who i was on in the red roses that was disgusting should have won didn't but i'm backing it again and nishioka who was the best maiden in the country blinkers first time i think i really like it i make it ten dollars and it's bigger than that so back in the three aroused semantics and nishioka to beat the favorite and nico what happens happened
Speaker 7on aroused i think she was really good at flemington last time just nabbed late uh probably cost herself late late in proceedings i think barrier three is good geordie will just put her in a good prominent spot i think she'll love sand down back around the bend will help i think seven dollars is true i think she'll love sand down back around the bend will help i think seven dollars is true price happy to have something small on her
Speaker 5beautiful move on to the group one and here's the cf4 1400 meters run under wait for age conditions and the the speed map here is going to be pretty obvious i would have thought because baywacht baywacht is our three dollar 20 favorite and shadow bar is four dollars 40 they've drawn barriers three and two respectively and they are the main go forward speed influencers jimmy star four dollars 60 he did reach a top of six dollars today with bet three and two respectively and they are the main go forward speed influencers 365. He's been well back since then. Angel Capital, $5. Pericles, $7. Brings just about the best last start rating in this race. Splashback 19s. War Machine 23 and Desert Lightning, a big price at $101. But you said you didn't really like this race.
Speaker 6No, I hate it. It's disgusting. Oh, look, it's so. I can talk about it, though. Nah, I can talk about it, though. I think Shadowbar and Baywack will lead, and that's important because the map is so important in this race. Because they're going to run downhill, and they're going to finish in 33.5, maybe less. And they're all so evenly matched that if you're in front of the other, then they're more than likely won't be able to get past you. Look, I think Baywack has all the advantages. Shadowbar's run two massive ratings in a row, but she's been running those massive ratings. I mean, so the massive times against much lesser horses, so you have to sort of balance up and at and sort of measure the time versus the form like beating tomato toasty yes that's actually a horse's name tomato toasty by five lengths yes it ran time but can it do that against the horses like baywacked and you know she's a merring form but they these are the premier sort of 1400 meter horses in the country really aside from water glow and maybe she's alibi um but i mean she was beaten by a horse called the stalker three starts ago at murray bridge in an open handicap like what the fuck has happened since
Speaker 5crazy she's gone to a new level clearly um i got her beat at two dollars twenty as one of my best bets three or four starts ago i was off
Speaker 6the map too wasn't it
Speaker 5that was at a 1200 look she's clearly better at the 14 but crazy i can't have her four dollars forty my simple explanation of this race is i'm taking on the two leaders i've i was able to get six bucks for jimmy star earlier today and five dollars for angel capital i'm not a real big fan of the cutaway on saturday however i do think it could be important for the chances of both these horses especially jimmy star drawn barrier one with that inside opening up from the 500 if he is in behind them and needing a run he'll get the split whenever he wants it and um ethan brown has been a good partner for him in in recent um outings i don't think the jockey changes or jockey bookings for bayvark and shadow bar can be underestimated bayvark's best performances have been with really really good front-running jockeys natural willer adam hieronymus he now gets james mcdonald uh it could be for the first time i'll just have to look this up i don't think he's ridden him too many times anyway and i don't think it's jmax absolute strength even though he's the best rider in our country shadow bar the same her big performances recently have been with craig williams on board and now gets karen mcavoy i think there is a chance that bayvark and shadow bar don't quite get the tempo spot on and jimmy star and angel capital i think sandian really really suits them shadow bar i just i don't know if she can repeat that performance at way for edge group one that she did last time around this is a big step up she needs to hold that rating i'm not sure if she can and bayvark he's going well he's not going at his absolute best his recent ratings aren't the memsie they're not the all-aged they're not some of those other 1400 meter groups they're not the all-aged groups that he has been producing the last couple of starts so i think he's slightly going below his best and i'm happy to back jimmy and angel capital off the everest up to 1400 nico
Speaker 7i didn't really have a firm opinion of the race i didn't really give it i gave a bit of a wide berth as i sort of said most of my uh focus has turned to wa but i've got the two two at sandhound so to be honest with you i don't really care who wins fair enough um i would be dirty if shadow bar wins because how the hell did we get a beat i don't know at caulfield by custom and i had it in
Speaker 5the top four multi and she only just fell into four i know and then she's
Speaker 7come out and just going whack whack
Speaker 5yeah a word on pericles who we can't um dismiss he is dual accepted in newcastle sure he runs here he's joined the car park with 61 over there you'd have
Speaker 6to they have two decisions i think they either have to go back to last or they have to be wide what being wide is a better decision but it's not the one they'll make so
Speaker 5you think he might be too far back yes because
Speaker 6they're wide and everything's going to be so compact yeah
Speaker 5he showed a good turn
Speaker 6did it was good he ran fast time but they i guarantee you they've got two options be wide or go back to last they'll go back to last it's the wrong option the only way they can even with
Speaker 5craig he can be a positive jockey at times i mean he's not
Speaker 6going to try and lead i mean if he tries to go forward they'll just kick up and the ones in behind him would kick up so he can't sit behind him then so it'll be interesting it'll be wide or last what what price do you
Speaker 5make him seven bucks what price is he he's bang on seven dollars jeez i'm good jeez you can price away for age group one at the end of the spring carnival that has that's pretty good gear i can race number nine is the zipping classic 2400 meter group two wait for age conditions yes but you can price race just like everyone no
Speaker 6i'm just saying that was you were funny then thanks you don't get you're not funny very often i get
Speaker 5the flowers proxima d doesn't get the flowers but i do every now and then small fry has been 2.50 out to 2.80. gee the boys put him up very short he had about three six five kingswood four dollars into 380 but importantly did touch 4.60 at one point in time juju kiba they put up six dollars he's had an outstanding spring he's into four dollars 80 travolta seven dollars and she's a hustler funnily enough is the defending champion of this race winning last year she did beat light infantry man on a soft track at caulfield she's probably not in the same form right now she's 16 dollars uh my summation of this race i don't think they're gonna go any great gallop i think smoke and romans comes across from barrier nine kingswood goes forward he gets a beautiful run small fry won't be too far away and i think this race will require a turn of foot and that's exactly what kingswood has he did sit wide in the caulfield cup for the large majority of that race he was three wide the race did develop to his outside and he ended up getting a back to follow into it at the 400 meters and johnny just sat there i was cool but it was such a dominant one win and this has always been more of a target race in my opinion for him he has had the four weeks between runs and i was able to get four dollars 60 for him early today it just looked cracking value i know small fry has the second in the in the geelong cup last start to point of law but that was 54 and a half kilos he now comes to weight for age and i think he was slightly flattered by the way the race tempo worked out there i think he's a horse who'll be wanting even further than 24 and i think he's a horse who'll be wanting even further than 24 and i think he's a i think he wants 2800 meters even the melbourne cup distance and that was run at a pretty good gallop and he just got the absolute dream running behind point of law still couldn't run him down so i just think he looks a little bit short juja kibo can run well but he has gone to the grand final in the melbourne cup as well but but prior he was
Speaker 6excellent yeah i make um kingswood 380 i was a little bit more confident i was 350 early today but then i softened on a i thought about juja kibo a little bit more and then i priced him shorter um because i think i think maybe if juja kibo had a start in the caulfield cup he might have won it yeah degree i was talking
Speaker 7to trent crevin
Speaker 6today and he was telling me how um the melbourne cup runners have an excellent record here they have a very good record they do and and then i know and then my response to him was i reckon that if they had the if the caulfield cup winners were in the even that were in the sandown classic uh those zipping classic every year they'd have a good record too and he i think he said the last time was in like 1940 or
Speaker 5something like that the caulfield cup winner was here yeah they don't come here no it's a month
Speaker 6between runs yeah obviously this is a bridging run between um now and hong kong for kingswood but i was speaking to gavin he said the horse is flying like he's got the horse going as well as he possibly can so yeah i actually think she's a hustler can run a really nice race that bot doesn't believe in he started to believe in no i'm not saying that i was just i was just i'm just saying that gav seems to think the horse is flying hasn't regressed after the is his heart
Speaker 5earned on that's what the punters want to know oh i
Speaker 6couldn't speak for him but my come on jesus christ oh he hasn't told me but i'll be reading through the lines and i'd say probably
Speaker 7yeah yes that's what the punters want to know they don't want to talk they don't want you to talk in fucking riddles they want you to talk in facts i'll
Speaker 6probably back kingswood and i'll probably have something on she's a
Speaker 5hustler so what what price did you have juja kibo
Speaker 6485 okay so you brought him
Speaker 5down a bit but he's not a not yeah i think small fries price is a bit
Speaker 6ridiculous what price is he's 480 okay i think small fries the one that i've um i'm against because i mean he was good behind the cup winner but i mean maybe his price is i know but i think maybe his price is based i don't know it's 100 based on the formula surely not but it just seems so short doesn't it okay okay you're telling me it's not based on pretty easy straw to
Speaker 5what what do the ratings tell you about kingswood's caulfield cup win and juja kibo's metrop win compared to small fries second in the geelong cup yeah
Speaker 6what was better like
Speaker 5length's better yeah but
Speaker 6you can expect him to improve no
Speaker 5he will improve but can he improve that small
Speaker 6fries of ratings are better not not not not much to be worse yeah yeah not not not enough to have him sort of so so what we're saying is
Speaker 5we're
Speaker 7talking comparative links here
Speaker 5we're talking three to four links
Speaker 7duo and kings would have got on small fries it's probably like two and a half off last start performances or just off just off last up yeah okay obviously
Speaker 5he's going to improve he should improve but i think like point of law went through the roof in the melbourne cup so i don't think people are factoring
Speaker 7that in yeah we're also looking at
Speaker 5a freak yeah i just think small fry was flattered in that geelong cup point of law did all the chasing behind the euphrates and he was there to be gunned down and he couldn't get two
Speaker 7best horses this spring carnival have been cosmic crusader and point of law and they're both equine freaks no other horse or not many horses can cop the work that they've copped like point of law point of law being a nut job and doing extra laps at burby the vs sustainer unlocked unlocked the secret for kieran i understand well this bastard can cop work and he poured the work into him cosmic crusader gallop the tuesday the thursday after the caulfield cup -
Speaker 6Tough as nails. -
Speaker 7Before backing up into the Cox Plate. -
Speaker 6Real race horses.
Speaker 7But, shut up. Not all horses can do this. They are complete and utter outliers. You do this to most horses, you're having them on the barbecue with your steak and sausages. That's right. Not actually. Meriphotically, no. But you'll cook them. Yeah. Horses are not all built the same. What these two horses can do, most others can't. What's your tip in the race? What's my tip in the race? I would have Kingswood on top.
Speaker 5Maybe just Kingswood or are you entertaining Juju Keeble as well?
Speaker 7Well, if I decide I'm going to have a bet in the race, which what time is this race?
Speaker 55, 5 p.m.
Speaker 7Yeah, so I'm going to be probably had a couple of beers and I'm going to be getting ready to lock in a WA and I'm going to be excited. And I might have, actually, I might have a little play. I might have. So something small Kingswood and Juju Keeble into Concord Connie.
Speaker 5Beautiful. The final race on this Sandown program before we take a quick halftime break is the Summon Stakes and it features Concord Connie, who's been $1.95 into $1.75. She, of course, ran so well in the Empire Row Stakes, second to Lady Shenandoah.
Speaker 7So close, but so far.
Speaker 5On the second line, Super Fabulistic was a really good winner and she is on the reasonably quick turnaround, I believe, seven days. $7.50 from Savitri, $8. Tomato Toasty, that horse Bot spoke of, $16 into $12 and terribly $16. Look, this is going to be one for the thrill seekers, but a thrill seeker, I am. I've taken the $1.95 for Concord Connie earlier today. Look, she's drawn wide. She was always going to settle back in this field anyway. If she gets too far back and leaves her run too late, she can be beaten. But I just think she's a big track horse. She's going to eat Sandown.
Speaker 6Oh, that's the scariest thing ever. They're going to look at Sandown. Look how big it is. Oh, the straight is so big.
Speaker 5You have no faith in Craig Williams.
Speaker 6The straight is so big. Or Charlotte Littlefield.
Speaker 7No faith in Craig Williams, who
Speaker 5rode this mare midfield in the Empire Row Stakes from Barrier 6, rode her beautifully. Never a steer. Lady Shenandoah was just much too good for her, but she went to a new career peak. She was an 86 Raider there, meeting Lady Shenandoah at level weights. She copped six. 16 rating points officially. So she's now up to the 102 and you've got decent enough pressure in this race. She was super-fabulistic and Savitri likely setting the tempo up front. She'll get back. She'll be beyond midfield and at the 400, she'll go whack and get a victory for the prep. Throw the ball,
Speaker 7throw the ball. Come on, bot. I can just say it being a car crash. Hashtag fetch it, bot. Car crash. Fetch a ball.
Speaker 5They even want to race this prep. This is why she's staying in work. They want to get her. They want to get the W. She's only fourth up.
Speaker 6And it's going to be a car crash.
Speaker 5Come on, girl.
Speaker 6She's going to finish in 32.8. You're such a pessimistic wanker when you want to. I'm very good at it, aren't I?
Speaker 7No, you're just a fucking arrogant prick to be honest.
Speaker 5No, I'm just saying. There's every chance.
Speaker 7I don't know why you're knocking her.
Speaker 5This is going to be ring-a-ding-ding in the Sandown Guineas areas.
Speaker 6Yeah. Ring-a-ding-ding. Where is the king? I always hoped she was in the Sandown Guineas this year.
Speaker 5What was that? Oh, you were hoping she was in that.
Speaker 6No, I hope she's in the Sandown. Oh, ring-a-ding-ding. The we're in race number five of the Sandown Guineas.
Speaker 5Oh, yeah. True. You know what? For a second there, I was like, Concord Connie's a three-year-old.
Speaker 7After your attitudes tonight, I hope it gets beat. Well, I'm due for a loss. I hope Tej necks it out the back. Horrible tactics. Dirty Dano launching you on the outside. Runs 32.8 home. Nico, are you on? Fucking ace I'm on. This is a good horse, Concord Connie. She'll be winning the last. Hashtag fetch your ball.
Speaker 5Good luck. To Sammy Lyons in the ownership group, who sits alongside me quite often at racing.com.
Speaker 7Bot won't be getting invited to the after party. No, he won't. It'll be me. Sammy had a good drink after the last weekend.
Speaker 5Me, Sammy, and Nico will be somewhere on Chapel Street. Yep. Fucking ace. Bot, do you have a tip in the race? Hopefully he's going. No, I mean.
Speaker 6In bed by 9.30, Bot. I mean, I think Concord Connie's about a $1.50 chance, but I'm just too scared of the mat.
Speaker 5So she's not a $1.50 chance then?
Speaker 6No, I prize her like $1.50, there's no way I'm taking it. You're a coward. So I can just see it happening.
Speaker 5So if you get even money on Saturday, you won't back her?
Speaker 6I will launch.
Speaker 7Okay. You're such a coward.
Speaker 5That's all we wanted to hear. I had to get it out of him eventually.
Speaker 7I hope she starts a $1.90.
Speaker 5Okay, that is Sandion wrapped up. We've got a couple of races to look at at Newcastle, and then Nico will give his ace at Ascot. I've got a couple of bets at Ascot as well, and then we'll obviously get to the questions and podcast multi before wrapping things up. The first race I want to take a look at is at Newcastle. And Newcastle, it is a lovely, big, spacious track. It's one of the better tracks in Australia, I reckon, Nico. Obviously, there was that little period a couple of years ago where I think Randwick was under renovation. And was it Jewess? I think that won a tanker at Newcastle. And there was some other very good Groupon winners there as well. It is such a good track. It is. It's a shame it's so far away. But it's an absolute ripper in terms of the actual surface and the track layout. And it'd be good to be racing there this Saturday with the Hunter. The NZB three-year-old Spring Stakes is over the mile, obviously, for these three-year-olds. And Kick Up Rocky, our $2.60 favorite from Prince of Verona 550. Horologist is $7.00, and Immunistate is $8.00. I think this Kick Up Rocky is a really, really, really nice progressive horse. He's a big beast. You look at his replays, he's got a big action, big stride. He towers over a lot of these other young sort of fillies and colts. And his last couple of ratings in Queensland have been very good. So I'm expecting good things for him. He's clearly looking for the mile. All of his late sort of sections sort of would suggest that to me. He did try the 1,600 meters. Last preparation in the JJ Atkins. I just don't think he appreciated that heavy track. And now he's come back a much more furnished horse. So he's our $2.60 favorite. And as long as we don't get a wet track on Saturday, I'm pretty keen to be with him. But you were saying he might be a Hong Kong prospect.
Speaker 6I mean, he just, I mean, he's trained by, I don't know who Dazley Forster is, but, um, I guarantee you there'd be a lot of money being thrown at her to buy this horse.
Speaker 5Yeah. It's hard to turn down. The Hunter, 1,300 meters, Sway Neste was unlucky not to win last time around at Flarington, seven bucks from Infancy 850, She's an Artist 850, General Salute 9. She's an artist. King of Rousseau has been 16 into 10, accredited 10, Chidiak 12. This is, um, it's a bit of a dartboard sort of race, Nico. Did you have a lean?
Speaker 7Oh, no lean for me. I didn't even look at Newcastle to be honest with you.
Speaker 5Yeah. King of Rousseau was going to be a horse that I was. He's one of yours. I was keen to back here. I went six in the Russell Bolting against, obviously that was the A graders. It's just, it's just the barrier. He's drawn out in barrier 16, 1,300 meters is probably his optimal trip. He's, he's had five starts at the trip for three wins. He looks set to peak in a race like this, and you're getting a nice price around the double figures. And Pericles is out. And Pericles is coming out. So that's another big tick. Not, not a, not a big surprise that he's staying in Melbourne, my on top tip would probably be King of Rousseau from Swayness day, but it is a genuine, who knows? Let's get over to Ascot. Now, this isn't officially, is this officially day one of the pinnacles? No, that's not for a couple of couple of weeks or next week. Um, first race you want to start in race number six. Correct. Have you had a look at the, the weather in Perth? No, it's pretty good at this time of year. Let me just Perth weather, 26 degrees on Saturday and sunny.
Speaker 7You're right. Last time Jaymack rode at Sandown. Who shot the Barman?
Speaker 5Who shot the Barman bolts again?
Speaker 7A few pack of locals used to be in who shot the Barman. There you go. What a horse he was.
Speaker 5Ascot, a couple of races that Nico wants to look at. The first of those is race number six. This is a listed event for the three-year-old fillies, a three-year-old plus fillies and mares, and it features a really good up-and-comer in Cinque Stella. $1.90. Cessation is $6. Planet suites, $6.50 and ladies pro. She hasn't done too much wrong in her career. She's. Eight bucks. Who do you like?
Speaker 7I like, uh, chink Estela on top. I think she deserves to be probably even money slash into the red. I'm a bit dirty with myself. I didn't take two 40. Uh, we might not see that sort of price again. Um, really, really good Philly will now bear five from seven. Does everything right. It's the services of William Pike, Barry six. Everything looks absolutely perfect to her. She's on top and I think at around the $8.50 mark ladies pro. We, depending on where you shop is a stupid price. She's a unbeaten fresh. She's a really good horse herself. Five wins from nine starts. Um, yeah, she's a horse that probably goes a touch better with a bit of cut in the ground, but I think that could just be circumstantial barrier. One Freddie Kersley is, uh, back riding in w a full time. So this is a good ride for him. I think he will ride a lot for grant the honor as the sort of second stringer. Um, but barrier one, he can give her a good ride. Um, yeah, I think, I just think she's a silly price. She's very consistent. She probably doesn't have the sex appeal of Chinga Stella, but, um, she's a very good mare in her own right. And I think, uh, she's overlooked by the market at the moment.
Speaker 5Yeah. She's been a big drifter. She's been 550 out to that $8 price. I don't know why.
Speaker 7I think maybe cause. I think she's coming off a staying preparation. But she's still got speed. So I think that's being a bit overplayed.
Speaker 5So the last time we saw her at the races, she was winning over the 2200 meters when horses come back at the 12, they're often taken on the market. I think that's the reason for her drift. Chinga Stella is clearly the most likely winner. She just keeps running, um, an improved rating after improved rating. And last start, she ran to 94 in what was only a benchmark 72 plus, which is a very, very good going for that sort of grade. I think she probably wins this race, but I do agree. Ladies pro for a horse of her class, even though she is coming back sprinting, it looks big. Well, see,
Speaker 7I think the whole, I think a lot of people are going to overplay it where I think she was typically just the good, there's a really good three-year-old that was good enough to extend her class and win. She's not a stamina horse. She's not a stayer. It just depends. She simply won the Oaks because she was. Best horse. The best horse.
Speaker 5Who'd she beat? Like clockwork and co. Westbound she beat. Oh, westbound. Yeah.
Speaker 7She did. She just beat them cause she was the best horse. Not because she's the best stayer. She's got more speed than that.
Speaker 5I just wonder how maybe she's not. Maybe. Maybe she's not forward right now. Maybe. With this drift, but.
Speaker 7But Grand Islander, you usually get them regularly in the other races, so we'll wait and see. It's a big price.
Speaker 5The Colonel Reeves is over 1100 meters. It's always one of the big lead up races for the winter bottom group three set weights and penalties. I believe it was won by Joker's Green last year.
Speaker 7I think so.
Speaker 5I could be wrong, but I'd have to check that. Bassett Hound, $3.20 G. He gives me Joker's Green vibes. He might. Don't say it.
Speaker 7Fetch it. Fetch your ball.
Speaker 5It's not playing. It is. It's just not in the same hemisphere, but we'll, we'll let it.
Speaker 7It's not, it's not yet, but it's going to. Yeah, there you go. By the time I'm done with it.
Speaker 5People at Flemington doing it, it's just like. Yeah, see? What is going on? It's gaining fucking traction. What are people at Flemington doing?
Speaker 7People are going up like throwing their ball to me. Like they know. It's gaining legs. What are brushing boots?
Speaker 6I don't know. I've just seen that gear change. I have never seen brushing boots in my life. Apparently Bassett, Bassett. Bassett Hound is wearing brushing boots for the first time. I don't know what that is. I've never heard of that in my life, but I assume it's feet and stuff. Feet stuff, not good.
Speaker 5He's also got a collar on with a bell. He's our $3.20 favorite from Talking Goat, $4.80. Immortal Bliss is six bucks and right to me. He's well, well trained off lead. He's $8.50. As I said, this horse gives me real big Joker's Green vibes. He's better than Joker's Green. Oh, I'm not going to say he's better than Joker's Green. You've got one over me so far.
Speaker 7He couldn't, he couldn't have fucking gone. Well, he wouldn't have, he certainly wouldn't have gone any worse than Joker's Green did in the East.
Speaker 5Yeah. His, his Eastern States campaign has just been an absolute train wreck. Let's be honest.
Speaker 7But Joker's Green's back over there now, so he can, uh, he can step up to the party and have a, have a race against the Bassett.
Speaker 6Just, just the way. Brushing boots. What do they do? Brushing boots are designed to protect a horse's legs from injuries caused by brushing, which occurs when a horse strikes one leg against another during a movement. This can happen during training, turnout, or even simple exercise. So like friction. So when they're, when they're moving, they, their legs sort of, I mean, this. So when he sees his
Speaker 7ball and he gets real excited, he
Speaker 6gets the zoomies there, that's exactly what he's doing. It's an interesting gear change.
Speaker 5It doesn't sound like it's a negative. I've never fucking heard of that. I've never heard of it in my life. Doesn't sound like it's a negative at all.
Speaker 6No, it doesn't.
Speaker 5This horse strides like, um, like Joker's Green and maybe, maybe it's a patty car breathing as well.
Speaker 7The only way that you can put it down to is, is because of like his turn of foot. So maybe the way that he's gait is, is that it's like.
Speaker 5You put him side by side in a replay and tell me it's not the same horse.
Speaker 7I'm trying to, I'm just trying to process his brushing boots. So it must just be because he's, when he like goes to explode, he's, his gait must be so small that his legs and stuff are touching.
Speaker 5It'd be like the friction of rubbing against each other.
Speaker 7It must be what it is because he's, it must be, he must be at his smallest.
Speaker 5Equine chafing. This is
Speaker 7some absolute rock at the moment.
Speaker 5The only thing, the only negative with him in this race is barrier one. He's barrier one. He's a horse, not the brushing boots. No, I think, I think you could have more friction from barrier one than, than his forelegs touching each other. Um, he's a horse who probably wants room, so he's going to be inside them wanting a little bit of a gap. I think if the luck does go. Come, he just wins the race. He's the best local hope in the winter bottom this year. And he just looks like he's on that real upward trajectory. So I'm happy to back him. You're backing him, but you also think rope them in his overs.
Speaker 7Yeah. I think rope them in is at $8.50 is overs because he is mystic consistent. He's five from seven fresh. He's two from three track and trip. He's just a good, honest stalwart campaigner that just shows up every preparation. Um, yeah. A lot of people probably. Give him the credit of being their best sprinter over there. I guess you'd say, um, he's just, he's just a very consistent horse, but he just, he's, um, he's bumped into Western empire and a few of those type of horses. And he's just, he's just not better than, but he gets his best chance to win a racist preparation right here. First up well-drawn he's made danger has probably got the worst. Probably the worst barrier that he could have wanted. Um, but yeah, I just sort of hope that, uh, Carberry just is just neutral on him. He's going to be back in.
Speaker 5He could just drop out to last and go around. Oh, I think he's good, but that's a, you're making,
Speaker 7you're making, you want him to
Speaker 5be a freak. He did that last time, but it wasn't going to be more inferior. I think he is.
Speaker 7Oppo. I think he is. I think he just comes out neutral. Hopefully he's not lost the fence. Hopefully he's sort of maybe midfield or just a pair less pair worse than midfield and they will fan. I hope. And, uh, Patty's just going to have to sort of cut that little V line, hug the fence, cut through them. And that'll be the way that he wins the race. I sort of, I sort of think, but this is not his grand final. So, um, but you're also not getting a grand final price. So. I was happy enough to step in and take 380 on open, which I was very happy with. Um, and I've taken $8.50 right at the mid. I'm not a, I'm not a talk and go believer. I'm not an immortal bliss. You're against that form one. They were on the one, two last time. Yeah, I'm against that. I think Bassett is clearly the best horse in this race. If he gets any sort of luck.
Speaker 5He might not get it.
Speaker 7He might not get it, but you're also getting, you know, the price it is right now. You're getting the luck, you know, three and 10.
Speaker 5If he drew barrier five, you can probably mark him with a two. Next to his name.
Speaker 7Oh, yeah. If he draws barrier six, he's a, he's an army guard job.
Speaker 5Yeah. Well, I took the $3.80 on open, but I'm happy to back rope them in as well. So I'm seeing the race similar to you. Yeah. Look, when wrote them in, got to the gold rush at the end of last carnival, going back to last year, we thought this is his race. This is his race, but you actually consolidate his 1200 meter form. He's three, three out of four at, sorry, at 1100 meters. So maybe he's just a fresh sprinter. Maybe he doesn't want the 14.
Speaker 7He's a fresh sprinter.
Speaker 5Yeah. So I, I agree. $8.50 does look big. We get to the WA champions, Philly stakes. Um, it's been one by some really good Phillies in the past. Think of our Katie, a queen and the like, we might have another really good one. It's not in the series and what its name is profit motive $1 55 from treasured legacy, $5 50, and it's $19 and longer. The rest, you don't really even need to speak about them.
Speaker 7If treasured legacy wasn't being written by William Pike, she's double figures too.
Speaker 5Well, profit. Motive did put three links on triggered treasured legacy last time around. All she has to do is run out a strong mile and she, she will, she should be winning again.
Speaker 7Yeah. It was circumstantial that she led on cup day. Um, she sort of, uh, bumped a horse coming out the gates and she got fired up and Holly just let her go rather than fight her. So that's definitely not the way that a lot of people will say, oh, she led last start. She drove barrier 12 here. This is going to be. Uh, a bit troublesome, but I don't believe, uh, yeah, her wind a couple back was when she come from back in the rear of the field. So, uh, yeah, Holly's going to have options. She'll ride her like the best horse in the race. She's clearly better than this lot. Um, she will make her presence felt in better races than this. Uh, the early price or close to thereof was very tasteful. I think she'll start a dollar 30. I think she'll win. Chuck her in all your multiples. Smaller alert. She will be part of something that we're going to announce at the end of the show. And, uh, yeah, she will be winning treasures and legacies. I think severely unders, but something's probably going to run second.
Speaker 5Well, they did gap third as well. Last time around.
Speaker 7So I just think she's probably, she's a double figure chance too. She has no plaque on her. She's drawn a worse barrier than profit motive and she has to be behind her.
Speaker 5Yeah, I think profit motive will win with the little knock. If you are looking for one, she's 1600 meters. First time she is by capitalist who notoriously does saw sort of more of your, your sprinty sprinter squibby types but she doesn't look that to me um she bolted in last time she put three lengths on treasured legacy treasured legacy ran second to roger the start prior but yet again it was a distant second so she's probably proven herself as a genuine b grader and maybe she wants even further than this i'm not sure i just don't think she's as good as the most likely winner and that's profit motive and i have taken $1.70 and the $1.83 boosted price with bet365 on open so she should be too good move on to race number nine and this is the placid arc stakes the the day's feature 1200 meters i think it's worth i think it's worth a million nico it's worth a fair bit a fire of gidgee coal is our $2.80 favorite from one last resort 350 achy breaky $9 lavati the mezzo is $12 for the the italian owner ship made famous by rock magic and big red zoom was a good winner too back at 21s this looks a genuine race in two for me a fire of gidgee coals gets the blinkers back on here so it's go time third up and i think he will be probably too good for them first up she he should have won lucy just got in a bit of a trick spot and he finished off fast very very fast and then last time around um she did sit three wide no cover on him and she she was just left a bit of a sitting duck late for lavati de mezzo i think he'll be able to turn the tables on her sorry i'm chopping between he and her he is the horse but lucy fiore is the jock i think he's just gonna be able to get a lovely midfield position and use his turn of foot yet again lucy did ride him like the best horse last time around i think he's she'll be happy to just settle a pair further back and gun them down here and i think with those blinkers going on he will find the necessary improvement and i think two dollars and a half is a good price i'll have a saver on one last resort did bolting last time around but that was a no metro wins last year as a three-year-old race so he was racing absolute donkeys he has been going quite well this preparation when they did meet in the caricata going back to last year it wasn't a no contest however one last resort has proven he's going quite well and the rating was was big last time around so i'm a fire of giddy coals big big bet and one last resort to save a knicker
Speaker 7yeah i'm happiest to be with a fire of giddy coals um i can understand the back and save uh angle but i just think that i i can't i can't come to terms with um one last resort just being this superior horse this time yes he's improved but i don't know i just think around that three dollar mark for a fire of giddy coals is just fantastic shopping so um i think he's i think he's better than one last resort i think he's the best horse in the race he wears a saddlecloth that aids that cause and i think he'll win i think um yeah i think three dollars is a good good price absolutely
Speaker 5have you heard does he stay in three-year-old grade for the pinnacles or does he go to like a winter bottom or you're not sure
Speaker 7i haven't heard but um something in me thinks that i reckon he could be i'm gonna try and i'm gonna be sitting there just watching the wa coverage let's sit there and watch racing wa tv and i'm gonna get my scrapbook out i'm gonna write all the horses down and i'm gonna try and figure out where all these horses are going because i think there's some i think there's some angles to make money out of these markets because obviously a lot of these horses will go to a lot of these races but the market's really got no idea so i think some of these horses will chop and change and i just need to try and figure out because there's some holes in the market if you can get a leg up and try and find where some of these horses are going to me if he's mine i'm uh i'm going to a winter bottom with him when i'm on gold rush bank yeah uh he's all speed so i would be um i haven't really looked about what price he's in the winter bottom i haven't checked i haven't checked $15
Speaker 5let me check right now i'd love to see a couple three-year-olds go to the gold
Speaker 7rush especially yeah i think i don't really want to say too much until i've figured out what's going on i don't want to say too much until i've figured out what's
Speaker 5going on but 11 bucks winter bottom and 17 gold rush now punters these are all in market so we're not saying take that because there's there's a big chance he won't be running there but we'll find out yeah
Speaker 7there's a couple of horses that i think won't get the further trips in some of these pinnacle races and they just have to slightly pivot um yeah so to me if i have all all but speed so 1200 you go to winter bottom say you go there then you probably have a crack at rush 1400 and see if he runs that uh for one and a half million you'd have a crack in your preparation and see how you go but yeah he's a horse that i would like to see go to winter bottom i think if i can try and get some idea if that's the way they're going to head he's he's an interesting horse to back at that price yeah and you'll
Speaker 5probably get down on the 53 kilos or something like that um if you want to find out about futures bets um me and nico will be having our bet first but then we'll make sure the price isn't gone and i'll be sending them out on the six-day racing so you can everything
Speaker 7will be on the six days sign up sign up for that on
Speaker 5the app store either on the apple app store on the google play store and we've still got still got a bit of ground to make up but we'll be trying to do that in the west over the next month or two the final race is the rj peters you win this you do book your ticket into the railway stakes it was a race last year that was famously what was famous because cosmic crusader couldn't get the job done in it he was probably a moral beaten and he ended up not making the railway field and um winning a bunch of other races he's now a cox plate winner would you believe and they couldn't find a spot for him in the railway off the handicaps and nico we've got a similar situation here with rock fest $1.85 and western miss $4 awesome boy is $8.50 but we're going to focus on the top two on the market rock fest and both of these horses are in the 50s to 60s in the order of entry for the railway so if either of them don't win this race they're not getting in they will not make the field which seems it doesn't quite seem right given both of them are coming off incredible wins yeah it
Speaker 7doesn't it doesn't seem right but that's just the handicapping system yeah that's just the trials and tribulations of it so um it does something there to be done
Speaker 5about that handicapping situation to get these more progressive horses into races like the railway because there's
Speaker 7going to be a lot of deadwood in there i'm just going to get it
Speaker 6up here well this western miss won a benchmark 66 by look at its split spot i don't know the handicap is not going to do anything about the splits it's not it's not his fault he can't get this horse into the race what's he going to do right this horse massively it won a benchmark 66 it's not their fault it's not the handicaps fault it's their fault for not getting their horse into
Speaker 7the race rock fest is 23rd on the order of entry and western miss is 25th so they've won so western
Speaker 5miss has won four races rock fest has won four races as
Speaker 7well he's got a rating of 85 western miss has got a rating of 76 with a four kilo penalty it is very
Speaker 5low look maybe you're right but but it just feels like well there's no
Speaker 6way that the handicapper can get this horse that's just won a benchmark 66 into the race it doesn't matter just
Speaker 7win this fucking race on the weekend you deserve your spot like that's but when these older
Speaker 5geldings who are rated 100 are getting beat 10 lengths and still making feels like this should they just be axed
Speaker 6uh no because that's not how it works they should be racing their horses and then therefore they can get into these races it's their fault they're not currently the currently the winter bottom field
Speaker 7is going to be cosmic crusader with the question mark he's this is of order of entry buckaroo is going to be there western empire watch me rock king of light surfing bird bon joyce the party let's gallivant hot and high harry's yacht welcome to the show won't be there zip away bustler ingrid or it's like you've got a couple of horses that are going to be there but they're there that can't win but it stays on perth cup preparations which is you know that says happens in these races that they uh they have earned the right to be in these races even uh even if they're bridging runs do i agree well no i would like to see some progressive horses in there but you can't argue with the rating system so it is what it is i think um i think rock fest is going to be awfully hard to beat he's been a very very good horse this preparation there's definitely much more that the we haven't seen yet with him um it was a horror show last start and holly was able to get him out of trouble and win and western miss she's probably coming from the inferior form but she can run the hands off the clock uh there's more upside with her now she gets the services of william pike so uh it's a great race i think western miss is probably up against it it's going to be spotting rock fest to start uh it's going to be a great race i think western miss is probably up against it it's going to be spotting it ratings it's going to be spotting it probably current form so it is up against it but um i would love to see her in the race so i think i think rock fest deserves to be favorite deserves to be a short price favorite will be a part of the podcast multi which is scary because we got pike in the last trying to win into a railway in a race named uh the rj peters so this bob's race with bob's horse but um yeah i i've had a saver so the way that i've played uh i've i've had a really good go profit motive into into rock fest and i've had a good saver Profit Motive into Western Miss Beautiful Yeah, I think there's only two chances So one of those two will win So Profit Motive will win So you back those combinations And you can bet to your discretion However you want But I'd be very surprised if we're not collecting So WA looks very fruitful on the weekend And yeah, I expect us to be winning
Speaker 5Awesome boy in this race I think he's going to set a genuine enough temper Which will help Western Miss I do agree that it looks a race in two Rockfest you have to mark in favourite Look, I'll be honest I thought Rockfest and Western Miss When prices first came out Were going to be a little bit closer together But Rockfest does have the better ratings He was held up last start He was still too good He dropped some 59.5 kilos And 59 for his last two starts And now gets on 54 So he's level weights with Western Miss Which is a big advantage They're both, you know One's a four-year-old gelding One's a four-year-old mare He should have the two kilo allowance So he gets in Incredibly well at the weights I'm not even sure how he gets in So well against a horse like Western Miss He draws beautiful in four I think he's your most likely winner Western Miss is going from the mile Back to the 1500 And I think she's a horse Based off what she did last start She won from an impossible position Ridiculous I think her last 400 was like 10 lengths above the average or something Along those lines
Speaker 7She was never getting there With 100 to go
Speaker 5I just think she might be looking for 1800 or even 2000 metres in time And Rockfest might be the one With the better here and now credentials At the 1500 anyway But it wouldn't surprise me If Western Miss was able to knock us off But yeah, we're going to go Rockfest So podcast multi-time We are going to go the final race At Sandy on Concord Connie Look, she's gone up 16 ratings points From her second in the Empire Rose To Lady Shenandoah She's going to get back a long way From barrier 12 But hopefully she flies home Down the outside And can tick off leg number one By one late in the day Then we go over to the West Who do we like?
Speaker 7Race 8 profit motive Looks a point and shoot Looks considerably better Than the opposition So it shall be winning And then we'll tip it off With Rockfest in the last So three of the best winning chances On the day put together What could go wrong? What could go wrong? But the West has been a happy hunting ground For us of late So I have just narrowed my focus in Just getting rid of the The East and stuff for now And focusing my time and effort Into the West And I'm a bit I've got a budgie on my shoulder Sort of thing I really want to make the back end of This year fruitful for us And for our followers So yeah, I'm going to put in the work And hopefully we'll be rewarded for it
Speaker 5Quick question Profit motive $1.55 in the Champions Phillies If she goes to a Northerly
Speaker 7She's not backing up into the
Speaker 5She's not going on the railway
Speaker 7She's not going to the Guinea East next week
Speaker 5However, if she goes to a Northerly Straight away for age 1,800 Can she beat the boys?
Speaker 7Oh, she'd be brave to say she couldn't The way she's going But, you know Capitalist 1,800 metres Weight for age Against Cosmic Crusader She's probably the one that I want to take A set against At the Northerly for now Okay, there you go That's all Just because Like she could She could just keep improving But She's the one that I want to take She's the one that I've probably got The less Convictions about Heading that way Yeah I think the other ones Will measure right up Being King of Light Awesome Rockfest By Awesome Rock Those type of horses Yeah Hot Not hot and high She won't go to the Northerly But yeah I've just got a little query On profit motive At the At the further trip And obviously Against more seasoned opposition You know where I'd said Profit motive Profit motive If she was born Yeah Gold rush
Speaker 5Yeah, fair enough Alright, couple questions There aren't many here Only a couple more minutes Which means It means The spring's wrapping up Isn't it? If we're not getting anywhere near As many questions as we used to Casual call out Says Harshal versus Ben Kaluti Lightweight division Five rounds And Ben can only use one hand To make it fair Who we got? I would absolutely Smack that little weasel I am not a lightweight division though I'm all of Sort of The lower to mid-end Of 90 kilos Krista Castor What's the point of futures markets nowadays? Saw natural fling At $3 yesterday But the green machine Puts up $3.20 And now she's out to $4 Final field Yeah It's When it's When there are these Nominations markets And there's 20 horses in it They can mark You know They can make a 200% account Market percentage And it's just Yeah It's no good Rowan Greger If Bot doesn't have a license Doesn't have his license Why doesn't he just ride Observer around Melbourne And pretend to be a And he's in Red Dead Redemption
Speaker 6Do you even know
Speaker 5What Red Dead Redemption is?
Speaker 6Yeah I'm not a video game person But I know I've heard of that game
Speaker 5Yeah You should just buy a horse That's funny That's funny you mention that Because I just bought a PS5 Two days ago Did ya? I'm getting ready for it GTA 6 is coming out In nine days time Is it actually? Maybe even less Can you bet on it? We're counting down the days Can you bet on it? You can You can go to the casino
Speaker 7Oh yeah Terrible
Speaker 5Mr. Always Right We need to We need to discuss The Willow CF4 option Can't believe he hasn't stuck With the airborne man Has to be a backstory there So Craig Williams Is off Shadovar And onto Pericles It could just be a prior Probably already booked Probably Could just be a prior engagement I mean he probably didn't expect
Speaker 6Shadovar to go so well Exactly And yeah
Speaker 5Like If someone told you a month ago That Shadovar was going to be $4.60 in a CF4 I don't think even Tom Dabening Would have Would have agreed with ya Nope Oz Racing HQ If you want to have some fun Back Angel Capital in the ore Surely bought a grease 100% I won't
Speaker 6I mean No Maybe I'll just have Get on the Thrill Seekers Angel Capital Don't you be Don't you be touting
Speaker 7Post Post race if he wins If you're not putting your money Where your mouth is Well I love him But Back him in
Speaker 6There's no value in his price You're such a boring
Speaker 5Skinner Need a good value play This week boys On the floor After giving Point Barrow A good chance In the podcast question last week They're not backing her And watching her win Right in front of me
Speaker 7That's terrible I'll give you a good value play Back Concord Connie Into Good value $1.75 Into Into Profit Motive Into a five Gigi Coles Into What are your two
Speaker 5Kingswood and Rockfest
Speaker 6Itchnusa And Magnuson Tensure Are probably the two There you go But I really like I mean If you want one of bigger odds I mean Semantics And especially Nishioka But I'm also backing A rouse in that race Couple of double figures there Just take it to a maiden
Speaker 5Ryan Patton When that lady said She is one of the bigger owners In the post race interview Exactly How fat was she? That's not very nice Is that Is that seriously the question? I thought that was going to be About the The percentage she owns No Come on Ryan That is not That is not very nice Yeah I didn't Proofread that one Sorry guys I honestly thought That was going to be saying How big is her Market percentage Anyway Esports Tigerland Is a fire of Gigi Coles Amore Nico thinks yes Seb Price Will Malek just win it On Friday at Cranbourne Have you had a look At that race?
Speaker 6No Michael Romero
Speaker 5My business partner Is Bassett Hound Going to fetch the ball Again on Saturday For New York Nico Let's hope How good Bailey Kelly No question Favourite podcast Around at the moment Fetch that ball Hell bloody good Jack Jano Heading to Dunkeld What's the best way To play a country cup meeting? Is it a trap?
Speaker 6Get shit faced
Speaker 5Bring cash Because sometimes The internet's not great That's a big tip I'd give you I haven't been betting At too many of these Country cups But I don't know Just stock up the cans Put them in your Coat jacket No one will know And get absolutely hammered Lincoln Morgan Drink responsible Gamble responsible Does there need to be A look at any of the consequences For reckless riding Because it's almost A holiday That question didn't finish Thoughts on reckless riding At the moment?
Speaker 6It's a tough gig Riding horses It's competitive
Speaker 7The money's on
Speaker 5Yeah I think we need To probably give
Speaker 7They all push to be injuries
Speaker 5Yeah Probably need to give A little bit of Yeah It's a tough one Especially with With what's happened this week And we send out Our love to Everything To everything that's happened With the Izzy Neal situation And all those That are affected by that So I think We In terms of reckless riding I'm not sure If this question relates To that situation That was just a racing accident That wasn't due to These mistakes Do happen And it is It is a A stark reminder That was just a racing accident Just how much The Izzy situation Yeah It's just a stark reminder Of how How dangerous This game is
Speaker 7So As I said to you at dinner I said not to Take anything away from it But you are more likely To die in a car accident Than a jockey is to die On a horse So Put that in perspective Yeah It is a dangerous game But We're lucky Touch wood that We don't have to Have this situation Rear its head very often And Yeah Thoughts and Everything go out To Izzy's family and anyone that knew her and If it is going to affect you, this situation more than the next person, make sure you lean on the people that are around you and help you get through this. But, um, yeah, unfortunately this is part of the sport. It does happen. We're lucky that it doesn't happen very often, but there's, yeah, I agree with the reckless riding, but it also comes down to the stewards needing to police that.
Speaker 5Well said, Nico. I couldn't find the words, but you certainly have. You win some, you lose more. For free and confidential support, visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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