Carney’s hinge moment | Elizabeth May

The following is a political advertisement. To build a strong Canadian economy, we need a Made in Canada plan. Public service workers power our economy. They support small businesses and keep our supply chain moving. Canada's economic resilience relies on having strong public services. To strengthen our economy, we need to invest in public services. Learn how at 4UCanada.ca. This message was paid for by the Public Service Alliance of Canada. Today on Playbook Canada, Mark Kearney still short votes on his budget. So why is he acting so darn cocky? You've heard about Michael Sabia's plans to shake up the public service. We're separating signal from noise on what's coming. And Green Party leader, Elizabeth May, joins to talk about the state of budget negotiations with Kearney. Hello, I'm Nick Taylor-Vasey. -And I'm Mickey Judyech. -And this is your guide to the people, policies, and conflicts driving Canada. Hey, Nick, how are you doing? Everybody's sick. Everybody's sick in the city. All the politicians leave for a week and we don't even get to enjoy ourselves. But I know an antidote to all of this madness which is listening to our podcast. So make sure to subscribe to Playbook Canada wherever you get your podcasts. And leave a review for the show. Okay, let's get started. First up, driving the week ahead, Mark Kearney's government could fall on a confidence vote. He's still two votes short. But he sure doesn't act like he's worried. He runs his government like a CEO. He's headed back overseas right after the vote next week. Mickey, Kearney loves to talk about hinge moments, these big societal shifts. But is he about to meet one of his own on Monday? It certainly feels like it. There's a law on the line. He doesn't want to upset Canada's premiers with his latest list of nation-building projects. He definitely doesn't want to upset Alberta premier, Danielle Smith. Then there's the budget that you mentioned. It's gonna be a busy few days coming up. - You're right, that this is all seemingly coming to a head now. And yet, Mark Kearney is the most confident man in the country. We've both seen him in the House of Commons where he'll come in and he kind of saunters down, looks super confident. He'll make some sort of mistake, you know, like he'll call Pierre Pauly a minister by accident. His mistakes, I think, as the weeks go on, they do reduce, like he gets used to the place. But that is the spot where he, in all the world, seems at his least comfortable. And yet, he's still just as confident as ever. And then, as this confidence vote is scheduled, it's everyone circling it on their calendar. He seems to think that he can fly to United Arab Emirates and then the G20 summit, which is a regular annual summit, of course, but like he seems to think he can just sort of do that, no problem. - I know, that's a bold move for him to go the next day after the budget could possibly fail. But you're right, he's walking around so confidently around the hill, he's smiling. I don't think I've seen this man's sweat other than when he's running around. - (laughs) He's going for his Halliburton 26 kilometer supermarathons. He talks about moving at sort of like speeds, not seen in generations. And the criticism, some of it anyway, of his budget is that it sets out a lot of markers, but it's still unclear exactly sort of when the stuff's gonna happen here, when the government will have moved and then delivered. And yet, I'm sure when he comes back from the UAE and when he comes back from the G20, there will be readouts of meetings with world leaders. There will be agreements on things like AI and on economic ties and people-to-people ties, cultural ties between all these countries. And that will be seen by him and by his government anywhere or pitched as just more of the doing. Here are more things we're gonna do. So they're kind of like always adding to the shopping list of things they want to accomplish. - Yeah, and I think what's really driving his confidence to is the polls. If you look at what various pollsters are saying, you can see that Mark Carney is more popular than his party. He's definitely more popular than Pierre Polyev. So I think he's still enjoying a little bit of a grace period, a honeymoon period in a week where he was supposed to be attacked for his budget. He wasn't because the conservative party was caught up in their own drama. So he's been able to avoid some tension and some criticism on his leadership style. And it seems like everyone likes what he's doing so far, including Canada's premieres. Not one of them has publicly gone out after him. I think the only politician criticizing him in his Pierre Polyev right now. - It seems like every week he either has a premier in Ottawa or he's out in the country meeting a premier. So he's keeping those conversations going. He's keeping the irons hot all across the country to, I think, as you're describing, pretty good effect. But I'll give this to conservatives. They talk a lot about how we, as journalists, aren't really saying too much about a $78 billion deficit this year that the government intends to run. And that they're talking a lot about balancing an operational deficit in three years on operational spending, but calling all the other government spending investment. And then we're not talking enough about how it's all just spending and it's all just taxpayer money. Fair point that that money does matter and that is taxpayer money. But it says, I think, a lot about what you're saying. The stakes here for both leaders, that there is a lot more conversation about Pierre Polyev's house in order, or not in order, and Mark Carney, well, wheels up in a few days. - Also, he's meeting all the premiers on Monday. Like, what a flex. And I know that his government and the prime minister's office, they are making a huge effort to try to show that they are all united as a party. I saw them in the House of Commons when the first confidence motion came on the budget. It was actually the conservative motion. Every single MP on the liberal side was in their seat, as was Mark Carney. And it was the first time I actually saw Mark Carney sit all the way through question period, 'cause the vote happened after question period. When was the last time you saw him all the way sitting through that one hour of question period? He really wants to show that his party is united and they will face these tough moments in the House together. - Next up, let's talk about a Justin Trudeau mega priority that Mark Carney used to talk a ton about. That is, of course, the environment. But as world leaders gather in Brazil for the UN COP climate conference, Carney is nowhere to be found. So where does he stand on climate exactly? - Well, we remember 10 years ago when Justin Trudeau was elected, and he went to COP that year, the big annual Global Climate Summit, that was the Paris Agreement. It was a huge priority for Trudeau and remained so for most of his time in office. He talked so much about climate policy and said in motion a lot of regulations, a lot of laws, he just sort of like, whatever public opinion said, Trudeau stuck to his guns on climate policy. This week, Julie De Bruis and the Environment Minister is in Brazil for COP 30. Prime Minister Mark Carney is not there. And when we look at the number of cabinet ministers who are doing things this week with the House away, the International Trade Minister is in India drumming up business. The Foreign Affairs Minister is hosting her G7 counterparts in the Niagara region in Ontario. And later this week, she's off to Greenland. The Finance Minister is shopping his budget around the country. The Environment Minister being in Brazil is like way down the ladder on the most kind of newsworthy cabinet moves this week. - Yeah, when I talk to a lot of liberals right now, it's the same message that they usually tell me is if it's not about the economy, Mark Carney doesn't care about it. And so I kind of feel like that's what's happening here with climate change. I'm not saying he doesn't care about it, but I think he's trying to reframe it as an argument that cutting emissions isn't just about climate, it's about economics. - That's right. He has said things like climate action is not only a moral responsibility, it's an economic necessity. But I think a lot of people in the climate space aren't quite sure what to make of all of it. He is sticking with industrial carbon pricing after having zeroed out the consumer carbon price. The government is gonna get stronger on methane emissions reductions, but they're also talking about how sort of a new suite of policies will make an oil and gas emissions cap possibly redundant. And of course, a certain premier in Alberta hates, hates, hates that oil and gas emissions cap. And so it's sort of for a guy who kind of came to prominence after his time at the Bank of England, rallying the world in the direction of the green transition. He created a huge alliance of banks when he was the UN climate envoy that we're really trying to refocus investing in the world in green and in clean energy. Now that he's in government and he's facing several colliding imperatives, I think we're seeing the sort of the stickiness of government and just how being a guy outside of the arena and then being in the arena are two different things. Yeah, it's interesting too, because there's not a lot of people right now with the new Democrats being at seven seats in the House of Commons. There's not a lot of people in the House of Commons who are necessarily pushing for this green agenda that we saw under Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government, and I've seen the conservatives too, they're focused more on affordability. Everyone's focused more about putting more money back in the pockets of Canadians. And some of these social issues that we've come to know under Trudeau has really gone to the wayside. Nobody seems to want to touch it, but didn't Carney's book cover a lot of the ground that you had mentioned before? I'm embarrassed to say I haven't read the book. I restarted chapter one a hundred times, and I know I'm not the only journalist, but have you read it? You haven't read values? No. Cover to cover. I have the art of the deal and values on my desk at all times, constantly referencing both. Do you actually? Great bedtime reading. Well, not too far, not too far from the computer. I mean, this was Mark Carney's, one of the staples of his kind of like keynote tour in his post Bank of England era was talking about the trillions of dollars waiting to be unlocked that he did write about in his book. And it's worth saying that the alliance, the G-Fans alliance that he set up of all those banks that were focused on the kinds of things he was talking about has virtually collapsed. And so he, I think he's forced to respond to the reality of the moment. And the shifting winds geopolitically, economically, culturally, socially, all around the world, including at home. Yeah, we'll see what comes out of caught. Do you think he could show his face there though? Totally. There would be so many people there who would love to see Mark Carney. But after backtracking from all these global initiatives? Still as people, you know, there's still as people. They're just a handshake away. And finally, a word about the public servants who make our fishbowl run. You've probably been hearing about a big shakeup in the senior ranks of the public service may be coming. Michael Sabia, the privy council clerk has long been rumored to be concocting this major shuffle of deputy ministers. So basically, Mickey, a lot of new bosses around town. That's not good news for me. That means I'm gonna have to get new sources or new files. And sometimes deputy ministers don't always know what they're talking about. And thousands of new people around town with bosses. Can you imagine the cultural shifts, the workplace culture shifts? Just more work on top of work. Anyway, here's what we're hearing about that. So in July on the first day Sabia was in his job, he wrote a letter to public servants. And he said, I want to run a public service that is focused on priorities that simplifies processes and that prioritizes accountability, both organizationally and personally. So deputy ministers run all these big important departments and ministries that Carney and Michael Sabia want to activate and have deliver on all these priorities that they've put on a table. Michael Wernick, one of the former privy council clerks describes DMs as a collection of assets. So kind of like a cabinet, but not elected and running departments. People in their 50s and 60s experience public servants. They know how government works. And they're kind of key to ministers being good at their jobs. Wernick describes them as pair bonds, ministers and deputy ministers. So to be good at one's job, you have to have someone on the other side of that relationship who's also good at theirs and who makes you better at yours. So there's big jobs coming for the senior public service ranks. They have to deliver on these massive promises. And they also have to oversee what's gonna be years of spending cuts, billions and billions worth. So when will that happen? When will this big shuffle of deputy ministers happen? Well, nobody knows. But Wernick says that even though it was rumored maybe it'd be happening in the summer that after this next confidence vote, should the confident Carney pass it, that that would be the next opportunity to really have the public service take a moment to breathe, to reset the decks and then to move forward with the new crew, Sabia's crew of senior folks. I mean, we'll see. As always, we'll see. Let's talk about who we're going to be watching these next few days. These are our politicos of the week. The movers and shakers making it happen down in the trenches. So I have kind of a two for one here. Conservative MP Garnet Genius and Liberal MP Kevin Lamarue. I'm nominating them for their good sportsmanship in politics. This last week on the Hill has been crazy with the mud slinging coming from all parties. I don't think the media has even reported on like 90% of the horrible rumors and gossip that we've heard once Chris Dantramont crossed over to the Liberals. And I think that Garnet Genius and Kevin Lamarue, they are debating each other at the University of Winnipeg. And after the mud slinging that we have seen in the last week here on Parliament Hill, I think it's just a good example that politics is just like sports where you kind of lay it out on the field, you lay it all out on the court. But at the end of the day, when that's all done, you shake hands with your opponent and maybe you go for a beer after. It's not that personal. And I think it's a good reminder that we can have a cordial debate and still get along. - Whenever we talk about politicians getting along, I think back to that movie, Mars Attacks, do you remember this? - Yes. - I was a kid when it came out and there was just this scene with Jack Nicholson, who was the president and there were aliens everywhere. And he said, "Why can't we all just get along?" And then eventually I think they blew his head off. - Yeah, it's nice to show you can get along with your enemies. (laughs) - Opponents, opponents. - Opponents, yes. (upbeat music) - Now we've got another big guest joining for our 200-second interview. I caught up with Green Party Leader Elizabeth May over Zoom on Wednesday and she did not disappoint. Okay, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, nice to see you again. - Great to see you. - Okay, 200 seconds on the clock, let's go. I've heard you sing Joni Mitchell's Big Yellow Taxi, a classic environmentalist song. How is your John Denver Country Roads? - Country Roads is grand, but I still prefer Joni. I like Canadian performers. - Last time we talked, you said you weren't sure if you and Carney were friends anymore. Where do you stand now? - I like to believe that we're all friends, Pierre Paulyev and I are also friends. Mark Carney and I love hanging out together. I go for Miss Congeniality. - You're the only Green Party member in the House of Commons. Carney needs just two votes. Does that make this the height of the Green Party's power? - I hope not. - You're negotiating with Carney to support the budget in one word. How would you describe his negotiating style? - Grabsent, but he does have a lot of liberal, high-profile ministers who are present. So I've had one conversation with the Prime Minister, more than one with various other ministers, including Minister for Finance. - You're a regular at COP, you're missing it this year, but what do you make of Carney also being a no-show? - I'm upset about it because I think Canada has a role to play. The Conference of the Parties is massively understood as if it's some sort of giant cocktail party. It's actually the working global parliament under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change that means that treaty isn't a piece of paper, but a process. For us to play a role, rule one, show up. - You've been endorsed by Pamela Anderson. You've hung out with Pete Seeger. Has anyone ever made you starstruck? - Oh gosh, yes, Paul McCartney. I was at a loss for words and he came straight to me 'cause I was holding my baby who was then three months old. And I said, "Would you like to hold her?" And he said, "No, I'd go old Broody." And it was all I could do to hold myself down for say, "Go Broody man, I wanna have your babies." No. (laughs) - Are you in touch with Bill Clinton still? - Well, it could be if I had a reason to need to talk to him. - You've said that you're not at COP because of the budget. Does this mean that you think you can get more out of Carney than the UN? - Unfortunately, the timing is really lousy. I have to be there to vote. As most Canadians know, since COVID, members of parliament can vote on an app, on an iPhone, but not if you're outside of Canada. This is gonna be a close vote and I have an obligation to be physically there. And I could get to COP for like 24 hours, turn around and come back, no point. - Also, you do have a reason to talk to Bill Clinton. You're the Green Party leader. - Well, yeah, but I don't need to talk to former US presidents, especially it's a weird story that it's true that Bill Clinton and I've been friends since when I was 17 and he was at Yale Law School. But I've met lots of former presidents and almost all of our prime ministers. Everybody is, regardless of what high office to which they are elected, they're still human beings. And there is flawed as anybody else, including me. So you talk to people you need to talk to if you need to talk to them. Otherwise, you just think that'll be a fun dinner party I'll invent in my head someday. - Well, thank you so much for doing this. It was a lot of fun and I learned a lot about you. - It went fast, but I do have, someday I'll tell you one of the best evidences of psychic dreaming that I ever had, which was a dream about Bill. - Yeah, we're gonna have to hang out in Ottawa and you can tell me all these stories. I would love it. - Oh my God, I've got weird stories. (upbeat music) So there you go, 200 seconds with Elizabeth May. Tune in next week to see who's next on the hot seat. - And speaking of which, if you've got any ideas for interviews or questions for the show, email [email protected]. We read every single email. And that's all for this week's show. We have much more news and analysis on all things Canada, which you can find at political.com/autowa. Please subscribe to Playbook Canada wherever you get your podcasts. You've made it this far. So subscribe to Playbook Canada right now and leave a comment too. It's a big help. - Our producer is Neil Morrison. Our executive producer is Alex Keeney. Thanks to Steve Bone for composing the music and mixing this show. I'm Mickey Judich. My co-host is Nick Taylor-Vasey. Sue Allen is the editor of Politico Canada. We'll be back next Thursday. Please subscribe to Playbook Canada wherever you get your podcasts. - Presented by the Public Service Alliance of Canada.