Carney and the politics of concessions

Today on Playbook Canada, Canadians want Carney Tuff at the trade table. Can the government sell concessions? Canada Playbook turns five. We ask Hill Watchers at our birthday bash what's on their radar. And the man who speaks on behalf of Canada's cities and towns talks about strategic silence from American counterparts. Hello, I'm Nick Taylor-Basey. And I'm Miki Judic. And this is your guide to the people, policies, and conflicts driving Canada. That is the sound of our big birthday celebration. Canada Playbook turned five years old this week. We went to The Commons, this cool cafe bar on Spark Street. Midday in an August week where a lot of people were drinking and drinking and drinking. Doing a lot of different work. They took some time out and they hung out with us. They ate cake. There were balloons. And it was a fun time. It was so much fun. We packed the entire place so much so that everyone was sweating. But it bonded us. Everyone has the same love of Parliament Hill gossip as we do. So it was really fun to meet familiar faces, but also get to meet new faces as well. And some people who do trivia every day. Matching their face to the name that we see every single day at the bottom of our newsletter. That was a cool thing, too. Yeah. My favorite thing was, aside from the cake, obviously, which everyone did eat, was our Politico koozies that were shaped as a cowboy boot. Yes, our stampede koozies. Hopefully more where that came from later on. Big thank you to all the readers, all the listeners who, like Miki said, packed The Commons. It was a blast. It was. It was pretty hot in there. But that was just a testament to how many people had gathered in that small space. Yes, seriously, a big thank you. But before we get started, be sure to subscribe to Playbook Canada. Do it right now. Hit that subscribe button and leave a review. It really helps. Let's get started. First up, a new Leger poll says more than half of Canadians want the federal government to toughen up in trade negotiations. Barely one third. Support a more conciliatory approach and more concessions. Miki, what kind of challenge does this present to the government? It's huge. Most Canadians, along with opposition leaders, they do not want to see Carney's government bend anymore to the Trump administration. They do not like this guy. They do not see him as a friendly partner. And they don't want to see the liberal government give up anything that even some premiers and party leaders, say, could even hurt their province in exchange for some kind of deal. So that's a tough challenge for Carney to navigate in these coming days. And it feels less driven by policy and more on just that gut, right? Like, I don't think so many people are telling pollsters that they so deeply care about supply management in the dairy sector or eggs or chicken or poultry that that on a policy level, the government cannot give up on that. It's it's more about sticking it to a Trump administration. They see as hostile. Increasingly, they see as just not an ally. And so, therefore, draw that hard line. Yeah, it feels like working with the Trump administration runs the risk of, I guess, sacrificing some political capital with Canadians. We've seen this with other leaders across the world who have struck similar deals with the president. They are not as popular with their voters. So that is a challenge for Carney. You're right about supply management. That is something actually I'm going to be looking out for because Trump says farmers are going to be happy with this deal. LeBlanc hinted that supply management will be protected, but that doesn't necessarily mean that there are going to be things that are going to be unchanged. So I'm just curious how their two statements kind of fit together here or what Canada may or may not have to concede on agriculture. Yeah, and you know what? I'm going to put an asterisk beside what I said earlier, because in Quebec, of course, supply management, dairy farmers, these are part of the culture. So Quebecers actually do more than the average Canadian specifically care about that. But that brings us to to another element of the sort of the three dimensional sales job that Mark Carney is going to have to do, which is these provinces and these premiers who want either. To force concessions on the other side or protect their own industries. These are not always, as we've talked about in this podcast, shared goals. The premiers have different goals here and want to go harder on different things. So if you give up anything for supply management, that might make another premier happy. But then the Quebec premier is going to be pretty upset. And so that goes on a number of different files here, all the various irritants. Plus, there are things in the deal. That are being discussed through media leaks that aren't necessarily new, like the revival of the Keystone XL pipeline or concessions related to the Online Streaming Act that would basically absolve U.S. tech companies from being required to pay into Canadian content. And then there are leaks surrounding maybe lowering tariff rates on steel, aluminum autos. Obviously, we won't know what's in the deal until Friday and the evening. Ink is dry, but there is lots of speculation in Ottawa of what things are going to look like. And Nick, tell me about the poll where if there is a deal, this could maybe lead to an election? Yeah, Leger, same Leger poll where Canadians said the Carney government's got to draw a hard line. They also said if there's a new deal between Canada and the United States, there should be an election. 47% of respondents said that. Now, that was almost two-thirds of Conservative voters who took that poll, but it was also in the 30s, mid-30s of Liberal supporters who say that the country should vote on this. I don't think anybody in Ottawa is planning for an election at any point in the next few years, right? So long as Mark Carney still has his majority and so long as he's still polling pretty well, who would want to bet on an election? But it turns out that Canadians see this deal, whatever it looks like. And they want to be able to pass judgment on it, at least 47%, which is not an overwhelming number. That's not like a huge majority of the country, but it is nearly half. Yeah, that was really astonishing to me because we even saw right before Carney got his majority that polls were showing that Canadians had zero appetite for an election. So just to see how things have changed over the summer is really, really shocking to me. Next up, as we mentioned off the top. Playbook celebrated its fifth birthday this week. There was cake, a speech, and lots of Ottawa insiders pressed into the Commons, a cafe and bar on Spark Street. Nick, you cornered a few of the attendees, thank you, by the way, to put some questions to them. Yeah, it was a pretty cool group of people. So we thought, let's bring them into a corner of the room and ask them some questions. We asked them what they're reading this summer and what other people really should read. And we made sure to say, like, not what book would make you sound cool, but more like, what do you actually read? And we asked them what people aren't talking about enough in Canadian politics and also what's on their radar this week. Of course, tariffs and trade is on everybody's radar. But not everybody talked only about trade. And those who did, I thought, gave us an interesting insight. So here's a sample of what we heard. Hi, I'm Julia Piniella. I'm the host and creator of Let's Talk Politics podcast. My best summer read, it's an oldie, but it's Harperland, the Politics of Control by Lawrence Martin. I'm really into it because I feel like it's a bit of a playbook of what we're seeing Carney do. Also, what Pierre is trying to emulate with what Harper's done and some of the background characters in that. What story are people not talking about enough in Canadian politics? I think we're not talking about class enough. And the reason why I say that is we're in this movement of techno-feudalism, where before we had kings that owned the land. Now, if you want access to anything or the Internet, you've got to pay. So how does that impact? How does that impact class? How does that impact who has access to information? Everybody's watching tariffs and trade this week. What are you watching this week? I'm watching AI data centers and the conversation around that. We're seeing moratoriums across the country being put forward and what impacts that are going to have on the communities, energy, taxes. And I think people need to be talking about that more. Thanks for joining. Thank you. Who are you? And what do you do? Sure. I'm Jordan Paquette, vice president at Blue Sky Strategy Group. We work in government relations and public affairs here in Ottawa. What is your best summer read? I'd have to say it's the political playbook. Five years running now. Congratulations. It's the first thing I read every morning. One of the only things I read in the summer. I usually try and take a break and look at other stuff, but it's a must read. Well, thank you for saying so. Of course. What are people not talking about enough in Canadian politics? I think one thing that a lot of people don't talk about is the political playbook. Some people maybe in Ottawa are talking about, not the broader public, is a potential cabinet shuffle. I think that really has the ability to kind of change what could be on the agenda this fall. And what is on your radar this week? Obviously, the trade talks, trade deadline coming up, a lot of clients looking at what could come at midnight tonight. It obviously has big effects with the Canadian economy. So I think a lot of people will be watching that for sure. Thanks for joining the show. Yeah, thanks so much. And congratulations again. My name is Howard Fremeth. I'm the Vice President of Communications, the Center for Israel and Jewish Affairs. Best summer read right now is Agatha Christie, Then There Were None. It's the original Knives Out. Say a little more about that. That sounds really interesting. Yeah, I mean, it's mystery before Netflix. It's set on an island off the coast of the UK. And every night, another character is gone. So I think you could figure out. Yeah, I think looking ahead to the coming parliamentary session, there's a lot on the agenda. Two major things that no one seems to be talking about are a review of the national security strategy of the government and also foreign policy. I think it's been probably a lot of your audience I don't think was born the last time they had an official review in the early 90s. So a big thing. A big thing that's coming up here. What's on your radar this week? So knowing a bit about my job this week and the last couple of weeks, the topic of anti-Semitism in universities has been top of mind. And just the other day, Toronto Metropolitan University released another report which followed a report that was released by Heritage Canada, really showing the extent to which systemic anti-Semitism is impacting our public universities. So that's top of mind for us this week. Thanks so much for joining the podcast. It's great to be here and happy five years. Okay. Thanks for joining the podcast. Who are you and what do you do? I'm Laura Payton. I'm manager of media relations at Farm Credit Canada. Best summer read is actually by a member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery. Amanda Connolly's The Lure of Wolves and Whispers. It's romantic. It's a really fun read and I devoured that book. The importance of food processing and the supply chain. I told you I had a good answer for this. No, but it's legit, right? It's similar to how, you know, Canadians, we ship our oil to be refined in the US. We ship a lot of our raw food products to other countries we process and we buy them back to put on girls' store shelves. And so that's something that people need to know more about. And I think we're going to be seeing more about that in the next few months. Currently, government's also super engaged with the national food security strategy. And FCC had a small piece of that, where we're funding a billion dollars to help with that problem. What is on your radar this week? Tariffs, right? Well, which part? Everybody in town is talking about tariffs and trade in the United States, but where does that fit into your world? So I'm interested in supply management and seeing if the government is going to try and, you know, give way to the Trump administration. And I can recommend another example of that. There's another great read to you, which was a news article by Kate Helmore, the ag reporter at The Globe, who covered, she wrote about the difference between the Canada-EU agreement and Canada-US and how Europeans can sell dairy products directly to retailers. That's what the Americans want, according to that story. And so I found that really enlightening. Happy to, anytime. My name is Hilary Martin, and I am a principal on the opinion research team at Earnscliff. First question is, what is your opinion on dairy? My best summer read this summer, I just finished reading Bel Canto by Ann Patchett, and it was a bit of an exercise in patience, which I feel was good for me. So that's my recommendation. Well, this is like a bit of a recurring theme. The municipal elections, they're obviously not directly related to the federal sphere, but there are knock-on implications of how elections go. In British Columbia and in Ontario, this year, for transit funding, for housing, and I think that people generally don't pay enough attention to those. We don't see the type of engagement that we need in the municipality. And what's top of mind this week? Top of mind this week, I am really curious to see how the federal government positions whatever comes out of tomorrow, which is the 19th, the tariff deadline, because of the race that Canadians have given the Prime Minister to date on managing these issues, and how long that grace will hold if what happens is perhaps not in line with their expectations. Happy to. And once again, huge thanks to our readers, listeners, and everyone who came out to the celebration. You heard Hilary Martin say, "We're not paying enough attention to the municipal elections taking place in Ontario and B.C. later this year." We're not paying enough attention to the municipal elections taking place in Ontario and B.C. later this year. in Ontario and BC later this year. She talks about the knock-on effects of housing and transit. These are two issues that no doubt were central to conversations at the Association of Municipalities of Ontario gathering in Ottawa this week. It was thousands of people. There was a whole reception circuit, but it's a perfect time for us to talk about our interview earlier this summer with Tim Tierney, the president of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities. We caught up with him at Calgary Stampede while we were out there recording all those Albertans. Tierney really got into the kind of fragile state of Canada-US relations in a municipal eye view into what it's like to talk to American counterparts these days. We covered a lot of other ground too. So here's our interview with Tim Tierney. Tim Tierney, thanks for joining the Playbook Canada podcast. Yeah, thank you for having me on today. I remember during the last federal election, I talked to Drew Dilkins in Windsor. Yes. And he said that the mayor of Rochester City had invited him over. That's right. And when he went to visit City Hall on the other side of the border, they'd put the Canadian flag up, which was no small thing. That's right. In any American town, at any American government office. How are the conversations with those counterparts that you're having now changing as the trade war continues? Like, do you detect a difference between March 2025 and June, July 2026? It's a great question. When I was down in. Washington DC for the 2025 and national league of cities conference. And I did speak to probably roughly a thousand American politicians about this specific subject. Everybody was apologizing to me. Everybody was saying, this is, you know, we want to get back to where we are. We're good friends. Fast forward since then, you're noticing people getting a much more vocal. Uh, you look at Arkansas, you look at all these interesting spots where they have Canada days now, right? When I went to salt Lake city, the mayor of West Hollywood, she's absolutely phenomenal. She was begging me. She says, you know what? We have a whole segment is pride specifically festivals down in, uh, in, in that area. And she said, we need the tourism back. We have a massive challenge. So it's hurting on both sides and, you know, we'll keep the conversation going, but I'm really, I think we really have to see what happens midterm. That's going to really determine where things go in the future. And we'll keep watching. Talking to some municipal leaders again, during the last election, they mentioned some counterparts across the way, uh, were photo keeping their mouth shut. However, they felt about the trade war because they didn't want to inflame in particular, the guy in the white house, but pretty much anybody else, because there's such a Republican Democrat dynamic, even at the municipal level, uh, you mentioned there's more vocal happening. Uh, but do you, do you still hear from people who don't want to wait in, uh, because they fear the repercussions of saying the wrong thing? Absolutely. I won't disclose their names, but, uh, I have a, a whole, I'll call it a card catalog electronically on my phone of, uh, many American politicians I chat with all the time. And certainly they want to come out more vocal, but they might be a Republican mayor where they feel it's really tough for them, but some have come out very publicly as well. So as we get closer, I think they're starting to read the tea. Will it be a status quo after midterms? It's looking, there could be some change now. So they're getting a little more vocal, but I understand it's a different, uh, form of government where there's absolutely far too much control at one level. Uh, there's no ability to be able to change anything and they're afraid to get their funding ripped away. Right. Back to Canada. Yes. You are now, I mean, you've been involved with FCM for some years, but you're now the president. You hear from mayors and counselors across the country. What is the most Canadian municipal government? Complaint you've got, like, is it potholes everywhere or what is the thing that you hear about the most in the most places? It's going to be a tie between potholes and speeding. Those are the two bar none. I have every parent under the sun and I don't blame them. Uh, they get very frustrated since COVID speeding has become like wild. I don't know what's going on, but people are speeding through school zones and everything. So yeah, it's a bit of a tie between those two. Snow is natural, even though we're getting pounded across the country. Auto got hit. I know Calgary had a rough one. People know our municipalities do a great job on cleanup. That's just natural. But yeah, I don't know. It's a real tough one. It's a coin toss. If you would have asked me five years ago, I would have said just potholes. But speeding is definitely up there now, too. That's interesting. Ottawa's got a bit of a reputation. It's the kind of place where sometimes it's not so easy to set up a lemonade stand. Someone's going to call you in. Right. It's like a city of snitches. It's the reputation. That's right. What do you think Ottawa doesn't get about Ottawa? What is the most Ottawa thing that even, I mean, it's a big city. There's a million people. Yeah. What does Ottawa not get about itself? We are a very, our city is beautiful. I think we have a real mix of everything. You know, we always brag about we're 2,700 square kilometers. We've got lots of cows. We've got lots of suburban parents. And we've got a lot of urban. That brings on new challenges all the time to be, you know, politically sensitive here. We actually have some of the highest call volumes per capita in the entire country on 311, if that says anything. I think our issues is there's a lot of demand on municipal elected officials all over the country, but in particular, Ottawa, because of course we have the federal layer as well. So there's just this expectation. We got to get out and we got to send a message and that's fine. I think a good municipal politician will address that, but yeah, Ottawa is unique in that respect. But at the same time, I have all the federal people there. So guess what? And they know it. I keep running into them now that I'm wearing the, the president's hat. I get to say, Hey, uh, sorry. I know you're just cutting into your, your state there, uh, minister. I kind of chat with you about infrastructure. So I'm going to see these guys all. The time, so it's good and bad being in that city. We watch a lot of press conferences in our line of work. A lot of federal, a lot of federal politicians will show up, stand behind a desk, announce something, some amount of money, some progress on a project. What is one example of something where there was a flashy announcement, but then the municipal side has to do all the work of implementation. Oh, gosh, there are so many. How long is that list? It's very long. It's very long. And it's, uh, you know, again, there's a lot of, it's great. People want to get out there with those, those magical giant checks. But then there's a whole permitting process. And then, to your point about multi-jurisdictional, that's where we run into a lot of problems. The feds can come out with as much money as they want. We love it. Keep it coming, everybody. Uh, but, um, but then we might run into, oh, part of this land is NCC land or part of his provincial land. Oh, wait a minute. Now we've got to go through the provincial ministry because we haven't done the environmental assessment. So we have trails, we have bridges that connect between NCC land. And city lands that are still not complete, uh, just because we're waiting for all these checkboxes. I just recently, it took me, I'm about four years behind on a project in my district, in my area. It's low income housing for indigenous seniors, plus a new food cupboard. Um, it's going on a piece of city land that we donated, but of course there was some issues, uh, around the land. And then the funding envelope, we announced this pretty much six years ago. They just tore down the old building and we're starting the new one now. That is a long process. And I think that's something I've heard too, is it's great. The prime minister's out there making these announcements. I know they're actively, and we'll continue to work with them to speed up the process on rolling that money out. If it's a long bureaucratic process, this is where we get ourselves. And this is the time you need to spend the money, right? That, you know, these are the challenges we have. We'll spend it. We have no problem. We can put in sewers and water all day long, but it's how long does it take and not just. Large cities, municipalities that are medium and small sized, big, big challenges. We've talked a lot about city priorities, but if you could boil it down to one sentence, what do Canadian cities need right now? Infrastructure. One word, one word. We need nothing else. Nothing sexy above ground. We just want the pipes. We want the sewage. We need the things to be able to build on what, uh, this government wants is you want more housing. You want places for people live. You can't do that without sewer and water. Tim Tierney. Thanks. Thanks so much for joining the Playbook Canada podcast. Thanks so much, guys. Appreciate it. That was Tim Tierney, president of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities. And that's all for this week's show. If you've got any ideas for interviews or questions for the show, email [email protected]. We read every email. We have much more news and analysis on all things Canada, which you can find at politico.com/ottawa. Please subscribe to Playbook Canada, wherever you get your podcasts. Neil Morrison produces the show. Sue Allen is the editor of Politico Canada. I'm Miki Judic. I'm Nick Taylor-Rasey. We'll be back next Thursday.