Can Joe Burrow Make a Run? NFL Week 15 Best Bets & ATS Picks

It is the week 15 Tuesday edition of the best bet show at Fantasy Points and we've got a full rack of games. Tom Braille and I will take you through all of the early points, breads and totals, talking news, early leans and more. Hello team bro, happy December, the numbers just get bigger but not picking up the end of the season. We are on a slow march towards the holiday and then of course week 18 which is the victory lap week for those of us in fantasy football but not in bedding. We've got to pay attention the whole way through, we've got to know who's doing what, who's doing this, who's doing that and we've got to be in on it for motivation, news and everything and we're going to do that here on best bets. I am Joe to home that is Tom Braille and welcome to the program everybody. We've got a full rack of games here and we've got 16 of them, there's no more buys and we've got to talk about all these games so I figured we just get right into it for week number 15. You've already made some wagers here on the points, breads and the totals and I've made my weekly teaser bet as well and we're going to talk about all that here on the program. Yeah a lot, a lot was going on in week 14 of course the big injury of the week was Daniel Jones and his Achilles tear major ramifications on the rest of the AFC, AFC South which kind of looked like it was all but wrapped up earlier in the year with the cold starting so strong and now they're in major danger of missing the post season they have a difficult closing stretch here. The other big news was Kansas City Chiefs looking like they may not be part of the post season schedule as well losing another game on Sunday night football. They're basically dead to win the AFC West and very slim chances of making the post season so we're getting towards the end of the year and some major stuff is going on and some teams are falling out of contention and some teams that look like they were safely in. You know are strengthening their cases or falling back to earth here so a lot going on and we're back to 16 games as he said Joe we got the full slate the rest of the way maybe maybe some of these teams aren't at full strength but we're going to have 16 games on this schedule the rest of the way. Well Tom let's just get right into it here because we have news we can talk about the news when we get to the games and let's start with the Thursday night football game which is big for one team not so much for the other although Atlanta is going to try and stand as to win because Atlanta doesn't have a first round pick in the upcoming NFL draft Atlanta is getting four and a half in Tampa 44 and a half is the total Tom right off the bat this is part of my teaser my teasers hot I won my teaser again this past week. I have to bet he's up to plus one and a half Mike Evans and Jalen with Millen both have a chance to play on Thursday coming off of a loss for the Buccaneers I would think Tristan worst probably has a chance to play on Thursday as well and the Buccaneers who are now tied for the NFC South need a need to win here against an Atlanta team that's going in the complete wrong direction. Yeah I had money against the Falcons this past week I was a little scared about it the line kind of moved against me I got it's Seahawks minus seven and a half it got down to like six and a half before kick but was a pretty easy winner for the Seahawks side as you said the Falcons are kind of one of these teams that are kind of packet it in but they're not even going to have the benefit of their first round pick. That's going to the Los Angeles Rams it's looking like Drake London he didn't practice last week short turn around here to play on Thursday night football so not expecting him to play. So yeah this is a Falcons team that's kind of just playing out the string and a Buccaneers have all the motivation in the world but really hasn't mattered much over the last couple of weeks this is a team that has lost some of that mojo that they had early in the season Baker Mayfield was the early MVP. After a couple his performances where he kind of led them back for to come back victories but they can still figure it out here they got four games left the schedule isn't too difficult and they have a lot to play for with that NFC South. My initial lean would be towards the Buccaneers side but I don't know if I could get involved with this Buccaneers team that's really struggling the last month or so. Yeah they are struggling but I'm going to count on them being at home and needing a win against Atlanta and I don't think Atlanta is as good a team as New Orleans is right now so that probably just tells you where Atlanta is. We'll see about Drake London as well Tom let's go to the Sunday slate there are no no Saturday action this week there is some next week and there's no Sunday early it is just a bunch of 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. games thick it's an 8 and 5 split and we're going to start in Chicago minus 7 and a half against Cleveland 40 and a half the total not that it's a surprise but Kevin Stefansky confirmed that should her Sanders is going to be the starting quarterback for the rest of the season for the for the Browns. The Bears are 7 and a half point favorites they lose to Green Bay Caleb Williams to borrow a turn that John Hansen used to use for I believe it was Des Bryant but I'm going to use it for Caleb Williams right now kind of Mister individual play you like he'll make a big time throw and you see the ability and you see and you see quite frankly the progression he's been a better player no doubt then last year but then you also see the wild over throws the inaccurate passes he's taking great care of the ball but I think his play has been a little uneven the last couple of weeks. But the Bears are 7 and a half point favorites against the Browns and it's a Browns team that couldn't stop Tony Pollard that was hell happened there. I was kind of out of nowhere I actually dropped Tony Pollard on a team that I you know I don't blame you right now I'm like this guy is just dead weight I'm almost would rather have somebody pick him up and use him in the fantasy playoffs then to actually have him on my roster and then he goes out and erupts against that Browns defense but we'll see if the you know the Cleveland can figure that out because we know Chicago is going to look to run the ball a lot they're trying to hide Caleb Williams as much as possible. They've really I mean they they have taken out a lot of their just straight drop-back passes anytime they're looking to throw the ball it's it's usually with some sort of play action or some sort of rollout or boot to get Caleb moot Caleb Williams on the move so. But we'll see if Chicago can kind of get them into a game where they have to drop back a little bit by stopping the run but this is what I did like the Browns side a little bit catching 7 and a half obviously we don't have weather anything really just yet but it does feel like this could be one of those you know cold weather December games here we always have to deal with potential wind and Chicago as well but. Brown you know this is a spot where the bears really haven't lived for much of the season where they're a huge favorite they they haven't been more than a four and a half point favorite in the game so far this year I just don't think this is the spot where I would want to be back in the bear so I'm going to grab the points with the Browns team here that's. For as much as you know we maybe have hated on stador Sanders or whatever but he is opening up the downfield passing angle for this offense and it's kind of opening everything else up so I think they can kind of you know keep this you close enough and maybe keep it to a one score game and. That gives a Cleveland a chance to cover seven and a half let's move on to the jets at the Jags look Trevor Lawrence maybe the best game I've seen him play you know I didn't I didn't have my eyes on that a whole lot after the Daniel Jones injury because it wasn't a very competitive game but I mean when I did see them with the ball Trevor Lawrence was making some big time throws and now the Jaguars are like 12 and a half against the hapless jets 41 and a half the total we have to see who the quarterback is for the New York Jets it could be Tyra Taylor who has a growing injury it could be Justin Fields who. Miss this past week with a bleep me soreness or it could be Brady cook the 12 and a half I mean doesn't even matter I'm not I'm not betting on the jets I'll tell you that much yeah I think it does matter a little bit because if it's Brady cook again I do think we probably see this line creep up here maybe to to 14 points maybe just under that if we do get Tyrod or you know I don't know Justin Fields it probably will settle here in this like 11 and a half but I do think Tyrod gives them a better chance maybe it gets down to. 10 and a half or 10 points if Tyrod's able to play but that's going to be the key injury we're watching this week with the Jets you know this offense kind of just died last week we we had big games from A.D. Mitchell two weeks ago John met you had a big performance too but if Tyrod's not going to be able to play it's it's going to be difficult for this Jets offense to move the ball very much so Jacksonville on the other hand I mean they got a got a little bit of a shot a life here I mean they're looking what's happened into the Colts and they're kind of dead here and Jacksonville's coming off a big victory and they got everything kind of out in front of them so we'll see if they continue to take care of business they keep finding ways to win in cover most weeks so this is this is going to be one of those like you know I'll be looking at Jacksonville it's going to be tough to to really want to back the Jets this week but if Tyrod plays maybe that would entice some people to to back the Jets I want to see what kind of numbers you're seeing on this game Tom because this is part of my teaser now I got the bills keys to plus six as part of a pickup line against the New England Patriots I'm wondering if we might be seeing some split favorites here because I am showing the bills this is a trafficking sportsbook as of Monday afternoon minus 1.5 plus 100 for the Buffalo Bills 50 and a half the total in New England I am showing a pick them with a minus 1.10 this is a wild line Tom and one of the most critical games of the NFL season thus far I saw Shio's party of the ring of the ring or tweet out that out unbelievably the bills are like now number one in offense on offensive EPA per play and that is entirely on the strength of Josh Allen Josh Allen was a superhero in that game against Cincinnati and now is Buffalo getting leveled up mentally with the the fact that the the goal the the ghost of Christmas past the Kansas City Chiefs might be just that that's yeah they be getting some of that mental boost that their bugaboo might not even be there to stand in front of them in January yeah Buffalo it's they really don't have a strong passing game right now they have nothing on the perimeter I mean it's all kind of between the numbers with the tight ends and Khalil Shakir but the rushing attack has been excellent here we saw them gash the Steelers two weeks ago Josh Allen continued it last week I don't you know they didn't really punt that game against the Bengals and they they put up a lot of a lot of points in that one but if we look at this Patriots team what's their strength they're really good against the run so this is a fascinating matchup we saw this earlier this year Patriots went into high marks stadium and knocked them off on Sunday night football I gave out the Patriots here I I think the wrong team is favorite here it's mostly bills minus one and a half there are some minus ones for for the bills as well it doesn't look like there is some some betting action on the Patriots though so this could get to like a pick or maybe even as you said maybe some split lines later in the week but I have Buffalo like power rated like a point better than the Patriots at this point so factoring in a pretty good home field advantage for the Patriots I think Patriots should be you know 0.5 or a point favored over the bills this week and they're also coming off of a buy too they were pretty banged up a little bit that really like late buy has to pay some dividends in this one where Buffalo has been you know playing a bunch of weeks in a row here so I think the I think the wrong team is favorite here I think the Patriots should be small favorites but either way it should be a great game up in Oxford again yeah I got the bills teased up the plus six I just think I'm going to pick them to win the football game but that gives me a little bit of an extra cushion in the event that they lose this one by a feel goal yeah that's going to be that's going to be the star game of the early window and for good reason Tom a team that is absolutely reeling right now is the Baltimore Ravens and they're a point and a half point favorites per draft King sports book in Cincinnati 52 and a half the total and and Tom I I'm going to come out here and say this because this might be end up being the controversial opinion I think it was the right call I did not think I say I likely caught that football I thought that I did not think there was a football move um no it's open another show like letter of the the rule book like yeah it probably wasn't a catch but yeah is the old book long and stupid yeah I would think so I mean anybody that watch that play it was catching you know you don't have to make a third move right what's your end zone but that's that's the roles though maybe the Rogers won was a little bit more uh the the completion to himself there that one it was a little sketchy that was a wild play uh but anyway the Ravens minus one and a half Cincinnati I mean all the sudden it looks like as as the Steelers and the Ravens were tripping over themselves in the second half of that game and Cincinnati is up two scores on Buffalo it's starting to look like holy crap the Bengals are going to do this they're going to win this freaking division and then Joe Barotho's two interceptions on two straight putt passes uh one of them a great play by the defender benford but uh and then I'll all the sudden um it looks like the the Bengals uh return will be for not but it just goes to show you how where people are out on Baltimore the Baltimore is just a point and a half point favorite here massive total in this game but that's the Bengals games yeah I actually took the bang Bengals in this one I think the wrong team might be favored again I there's a couple spots when we'll get to one in the four o'clock window as well where I thought it uh we might have the wrong favor as well so uh I have a little bit more action than usual this week because uh couple road teams that I don't think should be laying uh laying the numbers laying less than the field goal are and this is one of them I we just saw this game two weeks ago uh Bengals kind of dominated on third thanks giving night uh Bengals were kind of dominating again as you said until uh the burrow interceptions against Buffalo so uh I guess the one concern backing the Bengals would be that uh they might pack it in or whatever but they still have a sliver of hope in this and if AFC North Steelers are a very bad team they could easily lose the rest of their games uh but if Cincinnati wants to climb back into contention with this like one percent chance that they have to get the AFC North they have to do it by beating the the Baltimore Ravens here uh send them reeling here but uh so yeah this is uh two and a half I've downgraded the Ravens pretty significantly again uh and I I've knocked the Bengals up a little bit uh so I think this should be closer to a pick I'm type of a game uh so I think a little bit of value is on the Bengalside all right t-brow we're gonna take a quick break and then we'll break down the rest of the week 15 slate after this welcome back to the program Tom I'm not gonna have a whole lot to say about this game because we were recording this on Monday afternoon and I think the Eagles are gonna be a team that's gonna move pretty significantly because their their issues have been laid bare for everybody to talk about and everybody to dissect for weeks and they're going to be on national television again on Monday night football if they look good this line probably sticks 12 12 and maybe even moves closer to 14 they're 12 and a half point favorites against the Raiders 38 and a half is the total um it might be Kenny picket for the Raiders that might be an upgrade at this point um but uh not a whole lot to say here if the Eagles do not look good Tom this is coming this is going to fall towards the Raiders even as bad as the Raider I don't know about that I I think nobody really wants to back the Raiders anyway at this point I maybe it does a little bit maybe gets down until like 12 or 11 and a half but um I think it only could really go up if the Eagles go out to Los Angeles put on a really good showing and maybe they're you know what have one of their better offensive performances of the season uh then I could see this getting up to 14 uh because yeah well we'll see what the Raiders end up doing I do I am with you I think Kenny picket might end up being a little bit of an upgrade he did at least uh you know it gets a little bit of a uh you know prevent type of defense is against Denver but uh they did move the ball a little bit in the fourth quarter and you know uh Besh uh Jack Besh uh you actually got to play a little bit he made some plays and it's like uh maybe we should be using our second round drafted uh wide receiver uh you know in the offense a little bit more so um but yeah there's not a whole lot to say here about this Raiders team it's uh it's one that is definitely playing out the string they're probably gonna be reorganizing that that head coaching position and uh probably firing everybody else on the staff at the end of the season uh so we'll see if they how much motivation that they actually have down the stretch I know a lot of people were uh very upset about the conclusion to that Raiders and Denver Broncos game though uh with the uh Pete Carroll settling for that field goal to get the cover for anybody that back the Raiders that was uh heartbreak if you had the Broncos uh minus seven half. They just cannot win by margin no they cannot they the Broncos they always you know they they're always keeping it kind of close even in these games where it looks like they're completely dominating all right T-brow let's now look at the next game on the slate and here's where we're at with Washington they are underdogs on the road against the two win Giants team Giants favored by two and a half 47 and a half the total no idea of Jay Daniels is gonna play um now Dan Quinn said he could have come back into that game in week 14 and he seems to be indicating that Jay Daniels will play if he's healthy enough to play but this team is terrible they just he just lost his safety blanket receiver zackers for the season that defense quit against nine i just the Washington is having one of the seasons from hell if only it was that predictable what he was yeah i yes it was we you were all over it we were all over it we're kind of talking about that possibility this off season and uh it's it's it's it's it's it's been much worse than even we could have predicted and predicted uh and going up to Minnesota and getting shut out uh 31 to nothing lost i did not really see that in the range of outcomes uh with the Viking scoring 31 points and i thought the commanders look good on in week 13 against the Broncos but they could not carry that over at all with Jay Daniels back we'll see what they end up doing we know the smart thing to do would be probably just just let the guy rest up a little bit get him healthier uh but but they continue to want to you know trot him out so uh big injury uh for the commanders they did lose zackers to a season ending the injury so uh might be a career ender for him as well if you saw this reaction you could tell he thought thought it was a career yeah he's a guy it's getting towards the end anyway and uh that's uh that's a that's a tough rehab uh you know nine or ten months rehab to to get back to play and uh yeah he's what 35 years old at this point so probably the end of his career here uh giants on the other side they were kind of a lackluster on that Monday night football game against the Patriots but uh they did have a week to to rest up here they got one of these late buys so maybe that ends up giving them a little bit of extra juice here maybe that's why we're seeing this line a little closer to a field goal then you you might expect between these two teams uh the chargers at the chief so boy cheese four and a half 42 and a half the total a lot of this certainly depends on how Justin Herbert looks on Monday night football presuming he plays which he's expected to but i i mean tom the chiefs it's just every week i just keep expecting them all this the week they're going to turn it on and then of course they're down three offensive lineman uh against the best defense in the NFL and i don't care what quarterback you are the eight the the the way to stop any quarterback tom is to pressure and and Patrick my homes was inaccurate he was rushing through it Travis Kelsey has drops that that team is is you know really hurt right now yeah and i don't think Andy Reed did them any favors late in that game yep i'm i hey i'm all about being aggressive in certain spots but uh Houston's offense was not moving the ball it was three in out city uh for that entire second half for the Texans and uh they ended i forget where the ball even was it was like the 30-35 year line and they go for it on the fourth and one and a half and uh didn't convert and game was over after that uh it was kind of reckless uh play calling by Andy Reed in that spot too so uh it's just uh a bunch of mistakes here and as you said they had well they were down three offensive lineman but then it turned into four after the first uh offensive play of the game they lost uh i believe it was one ya moris uh the left tackles so uh they have some major o-line issues going into this match up against the chargers uh this is uh i'm guessing it's a little bit of a chiefs tack hit tax here i'm seeing four or four and a half but uh yeah i don't know how i could really want to back this team right now i know they're backs or against the wall but yeah i'm not even saying that haven't we been saying that for the last couple of weeks so uh this is this is a chargers or past kind of spot from able see how the chargers look um Mary and hampton as he said and and uh Justin Herbert uh Justin Herbert's playing through that injury and omerian hampton is coming back from a a pretty extended layoff so uh the offense looks pretty good and uh defense continues to play well uh this could be uh a spot where uh i might look again if it's you know if we can get a three and a half or four uh chargers might be the side. uh so uh while we were talking about that i i can tell you who the chiefs can bring in to help them right now i just got a notification that the abingles release germane berton he's got chiefs written all over what i'm not just that's why this draft pick that was oh yeah i don't know what uh what was going on there i i i did see he was uh you know not allowed with the team this past week so uh that makes a lot of sense to the least. Oh boy t-reau all right Arizona at houston 42 and a half the total houston minus nine and a half and my question is pretty simple why not texans the a fc's terrible why not the team that's got the best individual unit in the in the the conference the texans defense team one of the teams that has never even played in the conference shape i believe they're the only team that's never played in the conference championship game but why not why not houston after what we saw on sunday night yeah the offensive line that that would that would be the line up but you're right about the defense the defensive line is uh gets after quarterbacks second area is having they they were laying the lumber on a couple of uh chiefs players uh just to end they cover very well so uh hey we would like that i i gave out a little a fc south to the texans gave out a little super bowl at the uh the beginning beginning of last off season i kind of written those off for dead but here we are five weeks later uh nice little winning streak and right back in the mix of things uh at the top of the a fc uh right there uh you know just a game back behind the jack wires uh for first place in the a fc south so they are they're alive here now we've uh we've also made a little bit of pocket change off of them uh betting them a little bit over the last couple of weeks so uh we've been kind of out ahead of this and we've uh you know been able to benefit from it uh nine and a half though uh do we trust this uh this offense to put up enough points to lay a big you know lay a big spread like nine and a half here uh but the cardinals have been kind of dying dying a little bit here uh they've been really struggling to keep up with teams uh that are first period of them we saw them uh get raced by the uh by the Rams this past week so uh they're kind of displaying out the string um we'll see how much fight they have left uh there's a lot of discussions going on out there we'll see if uh Monty Austin Fort and Jonathan Ganon lived to tell for another season here they are uh uh quickly you know it seemed like they were definitely going to be back but uh each ugly loss here uh it's getting it's starting to look more and more likely that uh they make some sort of change at the end of the season Tennessee looks surprisingly confident in Cleveland but doing it against Cleveland is different than doing it against San Francisco Tennessee plus 12 and a half in San Francisco 44 and a half the total uh Tony Pollard goes nuts the 49ers have a much needed buy uh Tom I mean I'm I'm not really interested in in either side of this game but if I had to pick it would be the 49ers yeah I would look towards the 49ers this could feel like a little bit of a spot where you know a little let up spot for the Titans they they you know I have sucked all year one win going into last uh yesterday into sundays action and they get the win road game they are underdogs maybe they're celebrating a little bit this week and now they have to fly out to to the west coast to play a 49ers team that was on by so I could only look towards the 49ers here it does this was on the uh the cutting room floor for me here I did consider the 49ers minus 12 and a half but I ended up ultimately staying away here but uh this is one I could revisit later in the week uh with the 49ers but uh 49ers they started to turn things around a little bit with their defense it's been pretty banged up all season they've lost a lot of key players but they've tightened up a little bit in the in their on their defense and they're starting to get back to full strength with the offense uh you know we'll see if we're keeping ourselves involved at all uh out of the buy but uh I do like the the 49ers in this spot uh let's go now Tom do a game where we have multiple pieces of quarterback news Indianapolis at Seattle 12 and a half for the Seahawks 42 and a half the total not only is Daniel Jones out for the year but Riley Leonard the backup who was the third stringer because Anthony Richardson's the backup and Anthony Richardson has that nasty eye injury and he's not going to be available Riley Leonard is dealing with a knee soreness now Shane Steichen said on Monday that he hopes Riley Leonard can play in this game but uh I mean that moved the line when we started recording this was 10 and a half it is now 12 and a half and I mean this is just unfortunate for Indianapolis uh it has turned into over the last like month from a dream season into the season from hell for Indianapolis yeah as unfortunately is like corresponding right when they uh they sent the picks over to the jets to kind of go all in uh now it's kind of you know it's it's you know been a terrible stretch here uh since then since they've come back from uh Europe so uh you will see what they end up doing here at quarterback you think that they would be adding to the uh the depth chart here this week because it doesn't sound like Richardson has been particularly close to playing so uh I would not be counting on him it's it's going to be the Riley Leonard show but uh we'll see if he's able to play either way I do think that they might be looking at the veteran market to see if see if they can bring somebody in with a little bit of a playing experience uh to back up Riley Leonard here moving forward but uh man talk about a brutal first spot here for for this new look uh Kurt's off on to going you know on the road in Seattle against this defense that's uh we just saw them suffocate Max Brozmer uh you know a guy that was making his first NFL start two weeks ago uh Riley Leonard would be in a similar similar situation they can his first NFL start so uh just a a spot where yeah I can only look towards Seattle here uh laying a big price uh but yes yeah Indianapolis it feels like uh everything could just collapse here uh especially in this first start for Riley Leonard Leonard uh and by the way Charvary's Ward is back in concussion protocol so Sawas Gardner's Charvary's Ward is back in concussion protocol and and I mean this team has no chance to make playoffs I mean look at the schedule they've got the Seahawks I think they've got the Texans in there I mean forget about it uh the Jags they're not gonna make they're not gonna make the playoffs it's it's brutal for them but uh yeah I think well uh Brandon Smith one of their tackles is also dealing with a concussion too so yeah this this is just bad news written all over for the Colts right now Carolina goes to New Orleans in uh an interesting game at Carolina I mean New Orleans showing some life with Tyler Shock Carolina coming off of a buy and Carolina's one of the big winners of the buy week they fell into first place uh because the Buccaneers are lost we have the the Panthers minus two and a half 40 and a half the total in New Orleans yeah this is uh all of a sudden kind of an interesting game here especially we'll see we have another NFC South game on Thursday night football so uh we'll have a little bit more information just how big this game is between the Panthers and Saints made the Panthers will be playing for uh you know first place alone or they got to keep pace with the Buccaneers so but uh it's looking like the Saints could be a little bit of a thorn for these other teams that are uh you know in the NFC South looking to win the title here uh Saints knocking off the Buccaneers and in in week 14 and Tyler Shock played you know pretty pretty good ball and uh some tough conditions it was uh raining a lot and uh I mean we saw Baker Mayfield really struggling uh in in those uh wet conditions and Tyler Shock continues to impress here a little bit and uh getting to use his legs a little bit as well in recent weeks so uh this this offense has kind of become fun to watch here and uh Panthers we'll see what's version of the Panthers we get this week they they have been tough to predict from week to week we've seen them have some really strong performances uh like against the Rams and the Packers earlier this season and they've also laid some absolute duds against the 49ers and the Bills uh over the last month or two so uh we'll see what version of them will get but I'm kind of leaning towards the the Saints side here uh if I can get a full three points uh it does look like two and a half or the primary number out there but there there are some three starting to pop up there so uh that that would be my lean towards the Saints side Tom we have four games left to break down all four of them have varying degrees of playoff relevance excited to talk about those when we come back after our final break so Tom I know we talked about this game earlier but uh I got a notification here during the recording um you are saying you like the Bengals side in the Bengals Ravens game. Oh no T Higgins just got put back into concussion protocol. It's soccer after he banged his head. Yeah so uh uh I think people were wondering why he wasn't put in the protocol on Sunday uh after watching that a couple of times so uh yeah that is that is not a great sign I would imagine that he's probably not going to play against the Bengals against the Ravens. That is a huge loss um and obviously Jamar Chase coming off a little bit of a disappointing game but he's going to need to step up against Baltimore. All right Tom uh Green Bay coming off a huge win still in the mix for the one seed in the NFC minus two and a half in Denver uh they're favored 43 and half the total and this just goes to show you what the books are saying here and I'm interested in your read on this game because the books are very very uh I don't know about concern it is the right word but they're very cognizant that Denver cannot win by margin they are very cognizant of that right now and that makes them home underdogs against Green Bay. Yeah this is another one I think we might have the wrong favorite. I don't yeah this is one of those I like I could see the Packers being short favorites but I think this might be more the books they've been very high on the Packers all season here and they've really started to really boost them up here in recent weeks so um I think this is I think it might end actually be more about the Packers right now I think they're right on the tails of the Los Angeles Rams in their power rating so uh but this is a tough spot I mean uh coming into Denver uh they've they've uh you know Denver's found a way you know they what what are they on a 10 game winning streak right now yep they keep finding finding ways in these close games to to pull out wins and uh yeah if you want to get I'll take two and a half points with the the Broncos to see if they can figure it out again so um yeah yeah there's some shenanigans at the end of that Denver game last night but that it was a pretty dominant performance throughout the Raiders didn't really have much of a chance Packers uh you know it was uh it was a little hairy there until the the quiche on Nixon interception in the end zone there but uh Chicago was you know they were they had a chance to you know potentially score there and uh it seemed like Ben Johnson was gonna go for two points there so as he should uh as he should have uh as he seemed to be doing anyway he was kind of slow playing the clock a little bit uh under two minutes so I don't think he I think he definitely wanted to go for two and basically leave the Packers no time no matter what so uh but well uh I I do think this this game should be closer to a pick I'm here uh I have I have Denver like uh you know point in a half or so behind Green Bay and with home field advantage and Denver has one of the best home field advantages not because it's not just because of their crowd but also you know playing an elevation and and playing in Denver I think that does help a little bit so uh I think this should be closer to a pick them if not the Broncos favorite so I'm grabbing the points with Denver Detroit at the Rams Tom I think this might be the biggest number if not uh we've seen all year if not it's it's within a point of the biggest number we've seen all year the Rams are laying six at home 55 and a half is the total against the Detroit Lions who are down yet another defensive player uh in safety Brian Branch the Lions six point underdogs I'm guessing it's been a while since they were this heavy and underdog um in with the Rams but the Rams are a machine right now laying six and not a team I want to stand in front of even though they lost Caroline at just two weeks ago yeah they uh the the the books have given them a lot of credit here this is this spreads even more than I I imagine it would be it it really has stretched out I I thought it was going to come in at four four and a half here uh for the Rams but uh Rams have been making making a lot of money for people so uh this is I'm starting to see some sixes as you said draft Kings this was a five and a half at most places early on Monday morning but starting to see some sixes here uh and for good reason I mean the Rams outside of that Carolina game they've been covering spreads and and winning outright um so but hey the Lions are you know just hanging in here they they got a big win against the the Dallas Cowboys that was a high scoring game there uh as you said uh their defense is not slowing anybody down and now you lose Brian Branch to a Achilles injury uh that secondary is even weaker now so uh we could see some points in that one uh but my lean is towards if I can get plus six with the Lions I'll I'll take that and uh what probably is going to be a higher scoring game let's move on to Sunday night football where nine is catching six in really D eight and a half the total I mean yeah when you see like Rams line all these great games on Sunday and we got nine on prime time yeah take the Cowboys out of prime time sure can't and nor can you take the steas at a prime time apparently because they're on Monday night um but the Cowboys are weighing six 48 and a half the total the Cowboys are on life support Tom uh after uh that loss against the Lions yeah this is uh Cowboys had their chance to kind of really get into the playoff picture against Detroit and uh they came up short and uh now they're really as you said on life support they have to win out and even then that might not be enough so uh but uh yeah Minnesota is kind of just playing out the string we'll see if they have any motivation in this game they did get a the big shut out victory uh but we'll see if they want to start to string together some wins I guess I would be leaning towards the the Cowboys side in this one you know laying a price uh just because I don't I don't know if nine and in the Vikings can kind of keep pace with this this Cowboys offense but um Minnesota's defense uh they they've been playing very well over the last month uh too bad their offense has not been playing complimentary football but uh they've been you know even that white uh that uh Seahawks game uh where they ended up losing 26 nothing or whatever uh the defense was really good in that game we get a shut out from them uh against the commander so they've been playing like one of the better defenses in the league but it really hasn't matter because of the the quarterback and the uh the offense right now but um yeah might lean would be towards the Cowboys I do think the Cowboys will put up some points but we got to watch that CD lamb injury that's going to be a big one for this one if if lamb does play maybe this does push closer to seven points uh but if he doesn't play uh maybe this one does close five and a half he's he's one of those uh you know a few wide receivers that probably means a point uh half a point to a point uh towards the points bread here speaking of games with playoff implications all of a sudden the dolphins are still alive to you bro oh man and uh unfortunately yeah I we have them under I will be waving my terrible towel on Monday night because I have uh you and I both have the dolphins under eight and a half wins and this is a game this is a pivotal game for that because they have a they have a moderately tough schedule like in comparison to what it was um uh they have to play the Steelers the Bengals the Box and the Patriots they've had an easy schedule over the last year but that Patriots game could be meaningless and we could be a bucket years or kind of the bills this week too so yeah yeah the Bengals they need to win to keep the pressure on you know to to keep that uh you know that thinking that they could still win the AFC North so uh still a lot to play for that uh Miami under eight and a half I can't believe we're sweating this one out Joe but uh they're catching three in Pittsburgh 42 and a half the total and Aaron Rogers played really well yes i could believe i'm like oh he's dead you know well after watching him last week and he's playing through this fractured wrist and he came out and they were thrown the ball down field that was by far the best game the DK Metcalf has played as well so uh but Joe I'm gonna be rooting for for the dolphins to kind of thread the needle this week because uh the Steelers should not be playing three and a half points in this game uh that's what I gave it out on the site uh looks and that hook is gone in some places right now it's a place there are still some three and a halfs out there it probably is going to be one of these lines that kind of balances between three and three and a half but uh this Steelers team uh we kind of touched on a little bit with the Baltimore stuff but very fortunate to to leave Baltimore with a victory now they're laying three and a half points to a dolphins team that's definitely shown a little bit of a pulse here uh the last couple of weeks and Mike McDaniel uh has definitely saved his job and uh he has something to build on here but uh yeah I I I don't think the dolphins should be getting three and a half in this one uh watch the H&N injury it doesn't seem like much of anything I we'll see if he's able to practice on Thursday but that is a key injury he uh running backs don't really move the lines too much but he might be uh one of the special effects yeah he has been the offense they're trying to keep two up from throwing the ball it's it's been uh you know a lot of running game here for the dolphins so uh that is an injury to watch on the dolphin side but I do think he'll play Steelers have you know some moderate injury concerns uh Andrews Pete uh the uh his fit been filling in at left tackle he could miss he suffered a concussion so Pittsburgh could be bit down to their third string left tackle uh which would be a little bit of a concern in uh Darnell Washington who really helps out the offensive line he also suffered a concussion so uh he could potentially miss this game so uh a couple of injuries to watch later in the week I want to thank everybody for listening remember to subscribe rate and review to the best best podcast and any podcast at fantasy points check out fantasy football daily uh where we talked to Theogrammager about the week 15 waiver wire and he is also teasing the new NFL draft podcast at fantasy points that he is doing with bright what bright white field the season might be coming to an end for fantasy football but the all season begins and that's when we prepare for the next season it never stops at fantasy points my name's Joe Dolen he is Tom Broly thanks everybody for listening and we'll talk to you on Thursday [BLANK_AUDIO]