Can Dems flip state legislatures?

Everyone's talking about the prospect of a democratic wave in the midterm elections. But what does that actually mean? Now, of course, most of the focus is on Congress. But here's something that matters just as much. The battle to control state legislatures. Because for issues like healthcare, abortion rights, even when it comes to certifying the presidential election in 2028, state legislatures matter just as much, if not more than Congress. Let's take a look at the maps. Right now, the GOP has a trifecta in 23 states, which means they control the governor's seat plus the state house and the state senate. For Democrats, it's 16 states, meaning most Americans live in the state that's under full Republican control. But that's exactly what could change in this midterm elections, particularly if there's a blue wave. The Democrats flip just a handful of state legislatures. The majority of Americans will now live in the state under full Democratic control, which could have big policy implications, meaning that the opportunity to pass the policies that the majority of our state supports, things like increasing minimum wage, things like legalizing marijuana. You know, that's all on the table with the Democratic trifecta. This week on America, actually, we're in Wisconsin. One of those states where local control is on the line. And we talk with Francesca Hahn. How's it going? Yeah. State Assemblywoman and former group in the editorial candidate, who's currently trying to help state Democrats turn the prospects of a blue wave into the reality of a blue trifecta. Let's dig in. Running a business shouldn't feel like surviving a software group project, one after accounting another for inventory, another for sales, and somehow none of them talk to each other. 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Wisconsin is a perfect case study and the importance of state and local elections. Wisconsin is famously a 50/50 state, known for its very close statewide campaigns. But after Republican governor Scott Walker won in 2011, Republicans rejuved the state maps, making it nearly impossible for Democrats to win a meaningful majority in the state house or the state legislature. For years, Wisconsin was basically under one party control. And there was little voters could even do about it. And while Democrats took back the governor's mansion in 2018, they failed to flip the state legislature, which meant newly elected governor Tony Evers spent most of his time in office vetoing Republican bills, not implementing his own agenda. But a few years ago, the newly elected state Supreme Court rejuved the maps entirely, giving Wisconsin Democrats a fresh opportunity to turn their fortunes around. So while a lot of attention has been paid to the state's governor's race or the state's important congressional races, the local attention is on the state legislature and the new opportunity that Democrats have to finally flip enough seats that they can actually pass something. And interestingly enough, one of the people leading that charge is state assembly woman Francesca Hong. You might remember her from her race for governor, the Democratic socialist who lost by about 4,000 votes to Milwaukee's David Crawley. These days, Hong is back on the campaign trail, campaigning for a down ballot candidates and stressing the importance of not just winning back the governor's mansion, but getting that trifecta. We're still here and it's so important that people find avenues to continue to exercise their voice and their new organizing power. But for Democrats to actually reach trifecta status, they need to do something a little difficult. First, come together after a bruising primary. But second, and probably most important, they need to win in more rural areas, where the party has historically struggled, which brought us to monomony Wisconsin. Population, around 16,000. This is where Hong was hosting a campaign event at a local brewery, stressing this exact point. Democrats just don't need to win in November. They need to win everywhere. I feel this tension, but I'm so excited when we have new folks come into Wisconsin. You're really in the sea past. Part of the reason we wanted to come here was because we saw you were getting back on the campaign trail, and specifically around the idea of energizing Wisconsin toward a trifecta. Now, just tell me the difference in terms of the importance of Democrats winning all, not only the governor's mansion, but both houses of the state legislature versus what you are running for in just the governor's mansion. How does that change the possibilities of what the party could do in the state? For the last 16 years, a Republican majority in the legislature has meant that passing the types of policies that we know can drastically improve the lives of everyday folks here in Wisconsin has been stalled. We have a historic opportunity to flip the assembly and the state senate and hold the governor's mansion and the entire executive branch to a democratic majority, meaning that the opportunity to pass the policies that the majority of our state supports, things like increasing minimum wage, like legalizing marijuana, you know, codifying abortion. We also need to re-peel act 10. Wisconsin is where workers' rights, things like unemployment, insurance, social security. These were progressive policies that were born in our state, and we move backwards with the Republican majority. So that's all on the table with the Democratic trifecta. It also raises the political standard of what Democrats would have to do to achieve that, and some of it feels like it goes through these kind of more rural communities in terms of being able to get a trifecta. Why do we think the party has fallen back in more rural communities, and what can be done in reverse that? I think it's important to look at what's happened in the rural communities economically. When we've seen manufacturing jobs lead the state, when we've seen, you know, fewer and fewer supports come for our small farmers, and so much of this, what connects it is actually the growth of massive wealth and corporate control and corporate greed. And so more people feeling the impacts of that. There's an opportunity right now when we're talking about, hey, Republicans have been in the legislature. They've been in power, and things have not improved for you or your community. Now's the opportunity to make sure that we're actually able to see our shared Wisconsin values of working hard and taking care of our kids be reflected back in Madison through laws. Why didn't Democrats do that earlier, though? What seems as if like the economic depression in these communities is an obvious focus, right? Like, why does it take till now? Why wasn't that the focus over the last decade? Well, here in Wisconsin, a little thing called gerrymandering happened. So if you look at our elections in the last, over the last 12 years, we right now have a Democratic governor, and we have a Democratic Senator and a Republican Senator. What is a 50/50 state has not been reflected in our state legislature because maps where people were being represented by Republicans in districts that were locked into lean towards Republican. So I think having achieved a more liberal majority in the Supreme Court and getting new maps and this wave of folks feeling incredibly frustrated with the Trump regime and seeing that there are so great working-class candidates right now running for the state legislature that have built relationships with their communities. And I think these are the candidates that are strongest and best position to win a more popular vote regardless of party affiliation. So much of your campaign was focused on data centers, stopping data centers. Should I think of that as a rural issue? I think the issue around data centers is an everyone issue. It's a democracy issue. It's people wanting to feel like there's folks who care about what happens to communities and that they have control and an actual say in what happens in their backyard. That control part is really clear. We hear that everywhere. The control, but also to know that their elected officials actually care about it. about what happens. >> To that point, is it a mistake for David Crawley, the Democratic nominee to have not gone as far as you did and say we won't be building more data centers for a period of time? >> Well, he's fighting for communities and community control when it comes to data centers. He is committed to, it isn't, but he's also committed to 100% renewable energy, clean energy, having to power data centers. And achieving that is going to be incredibly difficult and it's going to be the data centers, the developers having to pay their own way. And these are things that he's committed to that we know can slow down the growth and development of data centers. >> Is that enough for supporters of yours who felt like this was such an existential issue? I mean, it would seem as if local control is one piece, but if I'm someone who thinks that the growth of them is already gone too far, how does that solve that? >> David's current position does not mean that it's the one that's going to pass into law, which is why it's more important that we have a democratic majority in our legislature to make sure that we have a dialogue and a check between the executive and the legislature. With the Republicans in control, when we elected Tony Evers, the Democrat who's serving as governor now, they held lame duck sessions to undermine the powers of the governor. I think it's important to know that we have to continue to exercise our voice to make sure that after November, if David is to become our governor, that we continue to hold our elected officials accountable. >> Is the message to progressives, hey, this is a starting point, and we'll keep pushing it? >> I think that there are many starting points, and there are many avenues to keep pushing them, and whether that's making sure that at your state legislator and your local elected officials to fight for a moratorium locally, we're seeing them pass superior here in Wisconsin, has passed a local city moratorium, we can still fight on that level as well. >> There's a lot of avenues, I hear you. I wanted to know, have you a time to reflect on your primary loss, like if you had to diagnose, why do you think you lost? >> I'm still doing a lot of reflection, but I think that I want to continue to look forward. And what I've learned from our election is that it's so important to continue to stay grounded in becoming accessible to people. I think that as an organizer and an elected official, it's my responsibility to continue to go to the people and remain very in touch with what's going on on the ground. >> I have a couple more questions, though, just about like the nature of the loss. Evers endorsement changed that race so much, so that your opponent, Crowley, was able even to win in some smaller communities, like places that you were pitching yourself as kind of the voice of more rural communities. Does that just prove any of this thesis around say data centers, like if that was the top priority for Wisconsin voters, wouldn't you be the nominee? >> Well, I think it wasn't all rural communities, it wasn't all suburban communities. We saw certain demographics, but also zip codes where we outperformed David significantly. And I think that where the governor's endorsement played a bigger role was areas that he was also more popular as well. >> Yeah. >> Outside of our political bubble, he still- >> Yes, did it surprise you when Evers endorse Crowley? >> I wasn't, I was disappointed. >> Why? >> I was disappointed because I was getting a lot of feedback from folks who hadn't committed to any candidate yet that this felt like the governor was putting his thumb on the scale and the other candidates felt like that as well. >> I mean, on one hand, you could argue that's, what endorsements do, that folks want to know how folks, a person like the sitting governor wants to weigh in. But I think from a national spectra, it was surprising just because of the way the race was playing out. On that front, I wanted to ask about electability because it seemed as if Evers endorsement was so about that, a kind of fear that maybe you couldn't win in November. So much of that primary concern was around the DSA label, even campaigning with folks like Assam Piker. In the retrospect, was any of that a mistake? >> We knew going in that we would have to encourage new voters to come out folks who typically do not come out for primaries, quote unquote, low propensity voters. And we knew that we would have to campaign in places where folks weren't expecting to see a gubernatorial candidate. And those included Twitch streams, those also included going to dive bars and bowling alleys and making sure that we were accessible and shaping our policies based on what the people were telling us they wanted to see happen and also what they wanted to see out of their governor. Think electability, I said this and I will continue to say it. It's the person who is most electable is the person who ended up getting the most votes and that was currently this time around. But there's, I think, a disservice when you have the most powerful Democrat in the state choosing to ignore a lot of voters and people who were inspired and energized and coming out to participate in politics for the first time through our campaign. And so I think it was shortsighted to use electability almost as fear tactic when Democrats need to be inspiring and project a vision where everyone can see themselves in it as an everyday working class folks. And when you've got a party that has struggled with elitism to then cave into an establishment narrative that I was even trying to fight because how you define establishment, it's so broad. But to then narrow down electability into folks being more afraid of leg bulls when I'm hearing from people on the ground that they're interested in solutions, in solving problems and knowing that maybe, you know, somebody who knows the hustle of the service industry and running restaurants and has worked across the aisle to pass bipartisan legislation. There are ways that we can maneuver around labels and what the loudest narrative might be. I wish our governor hadn't fed into that. I hear you, to be fair, I mean, to your point the establishment label doesn't fully fit even someone like Ralu comes from a working class background. But am I hearing you that you think Evers move made y'all's life in the general maybe even more difficult? Like is it harder to re-inspire if, you know, young people who are invested in the Hong campaign think that the establishment kind of squashed them out? But we still had over 300,000 votes. They lost by fewer than 4,000 votes. You know, I had more votes than Evers did during his primary. You know, those aren't squashing our voices. And I'm definitely going to continue to work to make sure that we get results and that we win the tri-fect done. That's the most important thing we should be focusing on right now. I hear why a tri-fective matters in the state context, particularly the state policy. If I'm someone, though, who's not in Wisconsin, who's just worried about, you know, Donald Trump running the muck in Washington, why should I care if Democrats win the governance mansion and the state legislature? Like, does that matter for folks outside of the state? Absolutely. Why? Because we will start to see when you feel government actually working and you see change happening in your lives. I mean, these are then voters who are going to continue to come out and vote for Democrats. And they're going to wear a pivotal state when it comes to the federal elections as well. We're actually in a swing district right now. We have an opportunity through Wisconsin to actually start improving the brand for Democrats. And we do that here. This trickles out to the rest of the country. The premise being delivering creates a connection for Democrats that is helpful in the presidential election. It's helpful in all these other ways, too. That we're not going to be fighting every single, you know, mid-term and presidential for our lives based on what's happening in just one state. But I think if we can start showing durable power for Democrats in a state like ours because of the policies that we're prioritizing, and you have more folks coming out to vote for Democrats, that's good for the health of democracy. What do you expect we're going to hear in there? More despair over the primary or more excitement about the possibilities of the general? I think folks have a right to despair, but I want us to hold on to our hope for change. And that's what today's conversation, I hope, is about. Thank you so much for your time. I really appreciate it. Yeah, thanks so much. Yeah, yeah, this is great. So representative Hong is clearly still coming to terms with a Democratic party that never seemed to fully embrace her. But what about her supporters? Are they jazzed for David Crowley? And what do they think the co-skit wrong about the politics of rural communities? It's not left, right? It's bottom of top in terms of power, right? Up next, Francesca Hong takes the stage and makes her case for full Democratic control. "Sport for the Show" comes from "Chime." And probably you don't like bank fees. The whole point of keeping your money in a bank is that it's supposed to collect interest and grow, not shrink with every overdraft fee or monthly service fee. That's where chime comes in, chime is changing the way people bank. Chime is not like traditional banks that keep the best rewards and pile on hidden fees. 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All that plus the strange tail of the gorilla poop obsessed, father of corn likes, in the latest episode of Gastropod, find Gastropod and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. For me, I see the path to the trifecta runs through Western Wisconsin, not just here in our state legislature. We got two seats that we can flip in the Senate to win a Democratic majority and five seats that we got to flip in the assembly to win a Democratic majority. So in monomony, Hong stood in front of what might be the most Wisconsin scene ever. A couple dozen people outside of a local brewery after a folk singer had just warmed up the crowd. I think that in order for us to have a Wisconsin where we can continue to organize and build power for working class people, that opportunity comes with electing Democrats down and up the ticket. Remember, Hong barely lost her primary and her campaign particularly resonated with big groups of young people. She had a massive volunteer army and her campaign was especially notable for its focus on the data center moratorium and issue we've heard a lot about this year. But in this speech, Hong focused more on the state house and the policy implications of a Democratic trifecta. And it's with a Democratic trifecta that will be able to make the investments that we need in our community when it comes to affordable housing, free childcare, and ensuring that we are fully funding our public schools. Hong was clearly doing a balancing act, coming to terms with her primary loss while at the same time trying to rally her supporters around down ballot success. And while the results on primary day weren't what we had hoped for, I think it's so important that we remember, recognize, and carry forward the movement that our campaign built because it was never about one candidate. But listening to her speech, I also wanted to talk to the people who came out for it. There's no chance that Democrats can flip the state legislature in Wisconsin without increasing their support and more rural communities. But doesn't the Democratic Party have a brand problem in rural America? So what are the issues that matter here that could decide which way this goes? Please know, we will always make better possible. Thanks so much. Can you all tell me your names? I'm a state representative Tara Johnson and I represent the 96 assembly district. And my name is Barb Wise and I'm a citizen in Chippewa County. So my name is Abe Smith. Abe Smith. That's that. Nice to meet you. Nice to meet you. Nice to meet you. Nice to meet you. Connie. Kevin, Kevin Poise. I'm excited to be out here in Monomony. What brought you out to this event today? Well, actually, I had donated a few times to Francesca's campaign for governor. What was the issue that brought you to supporting her primary campaign? She was so out talking to everybody. I had first seen her in Eau Claire probably a year before the campaign started really get rolling. Yeah. And she was just so comfortable talking to people and down to earth. One thing I think a friend did really well. She did campaign up here in these rural, more remote areas. She's an amazing tour. She came through this town three times over the last year. I mean, no one else does that, right? I like her ideas and anybody that has the guts to run as a democratic socialist, I give credit to. Obviously, she wasn't successful in that primary. Was there like, you know, any part of you that had to mourn that for a while before you signed up for the Democrat in the general election? Like, how have you dealt with the question of disappointment? I was disappointed, but I knew that as soon as she immediately got on board with David Crowley, I thought, here's a candidate who is not going to pout about not winning. She's going to immediately get on board with her counterpart who did win the primary. And so why would I not support her? Would you describe your general election vote as more for Crowley or against Tiffany? Oh, definitely. Well, both. I mean, every real living and two party system, right? You know, do you have any difficulty, you know, signing up for the Crowley campaign? Or is that a kind of an easy transition for you? Well, I'll support it. I can say, I consider myself a probably an independent but not a unusual thing. Basically my policy is I will always vote for the most progressive candidate that is on there and can win. Did you hear any people who maybe also supported Hong, who were slower than that? Or did you have to convince anybody and say, hey, don't say this one out? I didn't personally have to convince anybody but I saw enough chatter on Facebook and other things where people would say things like, well, let's just use that as an example. Francesca didn't win, so I'm not voting for Crowley. I was like, well, that's just stupid. I mean, primaries are really messy, right? Primaries, no matter what party it's for, primaries always feel like a family feud. Yeah. Part of the reason we're here is particularly because of a focus on rural issues as you all talked about. It seemed as if Hong had traveled to these communities. I really made that a focus of her campaign. What do you think Democrats could do generally to improve their standing and more rural communities? I think a lot of people need to see something that actually makes their life better. And I think sometimes the Democrats go into more that ludog centrist area where they kind of nibble around the edges but when it comes to it, there's not significant change. You know, I would say if I put my DC hat on, they would say that the way to appeal the rural communities is to do centrist kind of come to the middle. What does that get wrong? I think it gets wrong, like treading water that we have been doing for a long, long time. Yeah. And I think people are tired of it. I think a lot of rural people maybe are more conservative, maybe they're a little bit more apprehensive of these, you know, radicals as they're called. I think things like, okay, if you can show that there are things that are going to change their life for the better, that I think people might start coming around and maybe not be as susceptible to those fear kind of things that get thrown out there. I think people across the aisle, even, are interested in movement and progress. You know, we hear so much about the Democrats' brand problem in rural places. Do you think they have a brand problem? I don't. You don't, okay? I don't understand where people, when Kamala was running and people would say, you know, Democrats are so out of touch and I'm thinking, no, they're not out of touch. Someone who's out of touch is the multibillionaires. They're the ones who are out of touch with the general population. I don't, I don't understand. So is it a disconnect like our Democrats think communicating those values well enough? Like, I mean, I remember hearing so many people feel like Harris was not someone for, you know, maybe non-city folk. So what was the disconnect? I'm not sure the only thing I could think of as sometimes or often, I think Democrats aren't assertive enough in pushing their agenda. I think sometimes Democrats are a little spineless, and I think lazy, right? I mean, I think we were like. - Fat and happy picking up new voters in urban areas. We were fat and happy picking up immigrant populations as voters typically into the Democratic Party. And I think that we, it's harder work. The driveways are farther apart, right? The gathering spots are in the back of a pickup truck. - I think people want dramatic, rapid, radical, fundamental change that we are systems work, economically, politically. - They want to see the action. And when they see someone who's kind of like being, you know, hemming and hawing and not really getting to a point about a future politics, they kind of just tune on and say, well, they're not serious, so I don't care. - I'm curious, like, you know, obviously that primary was quite bruising, I would say. Maybe if that's, if we think that's fair. But one thing that we've been talking to her about was the kind of need for unity and enthusiasm for the focus of a Democratic trifecta. You've worked in that legislature. What would be the difference of having a kind of Democrats control, both those houses and the governors mentioned versus what y'all have been up against over the last decade? - Yeah, I mean, it makes all the difference in the world. I would just set the record straight. I'm just finishing my first term. - Okay. - So I know two years of oppression from the Republicans where we introduced 500 pieces of legislation and something like 19 of them made it even to a committee. So the trifecta is, as Fran said, everything. - If we look forward, obviously the Democrats are trying to win a trifecta here. If you could control the Democratic message in your community or in Wisconsin, even, what do you think they should be talking about? - I think just talking about the whole equality thing. There's just so much inequality, whether it be financial inequality, job inequality, pursuit of education inequality. - So if I'm not in Wisconsin as many of our listeners or waters would be like, should I think going into election night that the standard for success for Democrats is not just, you know, David Crawley, beaten Tom Tiffany, but we should be thinking about that trifecta as what the goal is here? - 100%. - Yeah, 100%. And again, I am gonna go back to what Fran said because I think it was so, it made such an impact on me that we only have hope with a trifecta. - Okay, so two things that got to me from our trip to Wisconsin. First, Washington often uses rural voters, especially in the Midwest, as a stand-in for cynrism. But that's not how these people sound it. They want a data center moratorium. They want legalized marijuana. And most of all, they want a party of bold ideas that has the ability to deliver. And that should complicate our understanding of the electability issue. Electability isn't just about where you fall on the ideological spectrum. It's also about your willingness to follow through on campaign promises and actually affect tangible change in people's lives. The second thing that sticks out is how the democratic establishment treats its progressive wing. In Michigan, after Haley Stevens barely lost her son in primary, there was a lot of discussion about what Abdul El-Sayed needs to do to win over her voters. But we've heard a lot less of that in Wisconsin. Doesn't David Crawley have the same responsibility to win over the people who backed Francesca Hong? I think that's a double standard, worth calling out. A big 10-party shouldn't only mean that progressives make room for moderates. It should also mean that the party acknowledges where their most popular ideas are coming from. And who's motivating important groups like rural voters and young people? Maybe the left was a new sense in the primary season. But they're a necessary ingredient. If Democrats have any hope of a blue wave and especially a trifecta. America actually will be in your feeds every Saturday with an interesting interview in culture or politics. You can also watch these episodes on the vox.com YouTube channel. Just go to youtube.com/vox or click the link in the show notes. If you enjoy our reporting and you want to learn more, sign up for my weekly newsletter, midterms actually. Go to vox.com/midtermsactually to learn more. That's vox.com/midtermsactually. This show was edited by Kasha Brasalian, fact-checked by Esther Gam, and mixed by Shannon Mahoney. Christopher Snyder is our video editor, and Kuhnui is our senior art director. Our executive producer is Christina Valis. And our theme music is by Break Master Cylinder. Additional support from Miranda Kennedy, David Tadashore, and Nisha Chattal. I'm instead herndon, and this is America Actual.