Can Africa maximize its global influence?

Hello, and welcome back to Independent Thinking, the weekly podcast from Chatham House. I'm Bronwyn Maddox. Today, a special edition for Black History Month. We've done a lot on Black History Month at Chatham House, exhibition, talks, discussions. Here in this podcast, we've set out to answer one question out of the many we might have picked about whether in a world craving critical minerals and energy, are African nations beginning to exert their influence through their ownership of these resources? And let me emphasize that this is not to shrink the wide themes of Black History Month to one question about Africa, but it is a question that we really wanted to discuss because it links very closely with our work on whether African nations can turn this potential commercial power, from the world's need for clean technology and the frontiers of tech, into greater representation on international bodies, including United Nations Security Council. The Democratic Republic of Congo, for instance, supplies roughly three quarters of the cobalt that the world desperately needs for batteries, including the one in your phone in your hand. Zimbabwe has significant lithium deposits, while South Africa dominates global platinum production and holds major manganese and chromium reserves. Nigeria, Algeria, and Libya are major oil and gas producers. Mozambique and Senegal are emerging as gas exporters. The list just goes on. But China's model of development partnerships seen by some as the salvation, the road to development and infrastructure building in these countries, but also by others as a debt trap, is starting to run up against other offers from the US and Europe and the Middle East, perhaps with fewer strings attached. So how are African nations dealing with the opportunities of this changing world, and are they able to turn them to the advantage of their own populations? To talk it over, we're joined by two guests. Calling in from Accra is the director of our Africa program, Tigisti Amari. Tiggi, how are things in Ghana? Tigisti Amari: Ghana is warm and beautiful. That is great to hear. Also with us is the host of our Africa program's regular podcast, Africa Aware, Lisa Mousomba. She's also the program's outreach manager. She's our outreach officer. Hi, Lisa. Great to have you here. Hi, Lisa. Thanks for having me. It's a pleasure to be on Independent Thinking. Let us just start with this question, this overall question of where Africa's nations are managing to use this new demand for resources to their own advantage and where they're struggling. Tiggi, what is your take on this? And you've been at a conference, I think, talking about exactly these things. Yeah, that's a very important question to start with. So as you said, I'm currently in Accra. So I thought it would be a fair fitting to start our discussion by reflecting on the Accra Reset, which I think is particularly relevant of this discussion, but also Black History Month. That is an initiative launched in Ghana in 2025 that calls for a fundamental rethink of how African countries and other countries in the global south broadly engage with the international system. It seeks to strengthen their economic sovereignty. And reshape international partnerships so they better serve their own priorities. This raises a question that has shaped Africa's history since independence. What does genuine sovereignty looks like in practice? The political independence was, of course, a very historic achievement, but it did not automatically transform the economic relationships shaped by history of colonialism, or even before that slavery. And the extraction of Africa's resources, which is how it's perceived from this side. But the reality is that the economic structures in place are not well equipped to support the fast economic growth. And most importantly, the transformation countries within the continent are seeking. And they feel that they have limited influence, that the terms in place that do not allow them to leverage their own resources. Lisa, what is your take on the kind of top-level view of where some countries are managing this and where the problems are? Africa has a lot of opportunities for leveraging this ability to have, you know, rising influence. But it's a matter of how that can be translated into actual gains for people on the continent. And in my view, from, you know, speaking to a number of people who come into the programme to speak to us at our events and whatnot, you know, some really critical opportunities are critical minerals. Having that amount of critical minerals on a continent, yet that value addition aspect being a bit of a gap, that is an opportunity that can be leveraged much further. You see examples of the DRC, you see Zambia, kind of trying to push to a different level in terms of how they're optimising their critical minerals. But another thing that I think maybe we think about in the back of our minds, but aren't really looking at from the front view is the demographics in Africa. Having the youngest population in the world. I think that's going to make the world mean something, especially if we're looking at how it's the inverse trends everywhere else in the world. Everywhere else is shrinking. Exactly. So if that's the place where economic opportunities are going to be, infrastructure is going to be booming in the next, you know, 25 years or even sooner, why are we not looking at that to be the centre of the world and how we're making decisions globally? So these are opportunities that I think can be leveraged a lot better. And maybe it's just a matter of how our politicians are speaking on these global forums and pushing that to be a global focus. Rather than Africa continuously banging on the door and not being listened to. Let's get into some of the details and let's perhaps take the DRC, the Democratic Republic of Congo, as a first example. I'm thinking of a book that came out three years ago called Cobalt Red by Siddharth Kaur, who's a prize winning author and academic. And he took himself all over the ground in Southeast DRC, looking at the claims made by some of the big tech companies about how pure their supply chain is. the question of Chinese. loans i mean we've had this spectacle over over decades since independence of new governments are needing money very badly to develop their economies so borrowing a lot and then the energy shocks of the 1970s made those very hard to service and then painfully and with all kinds of adjustments painful on the ground to people um broadly those were settled and then we're back into an era which China plays a very big part, where African debt has ballooned up again. Where do you feel African countries' leverage is in getting terms on this debt that are tolerable? A lot of the conversation, of course, has been around fairness, not simply access to development aid, but also being able to access capital that allows countries to build the infrastructure, but also ensuring that they can create the manufacturing as well as the value chain required within regions. And just to go back to your previous question around infrastructure, this is a very important and live debate at the moment because the infrastructure available connects countries better to the outside world than with each other, which brings the big question of how are you going to have an integrated market if the infrastructure is not even there. But infrastructure is not even there. So I think it's a very important question. I think infrastructure also requires a huge amount of investment and that access to funding is not easily available for most African countries. In terms of debt, this is one of the biggest problems. There has been progress in discussions around debt restructuring and reform of multilateral development banks, access to climate finance, but it all remains insufficient for the scale of the challenge. Many African countries face a lot of problems, and I think it's a very important question. I think it's a very important question. But there's the broader question around governance. Ghana was able to do what it did because even though there was a transition from one political party to another in the last elections, the new government essentially agreed to keep the deal he had made with the IMF, not seek to renegotiate, and has created a governance system that allows for delivery and action possible. So you can have the greatest economic policies within a country, but if you don't get that governance right, you're never going to succeed at the end of the day. On the China debts question, we did do a study at Chatham House. There's a report that's still available on our website looking at the role of China in Africa's debt. And the findings from having looked specifically to seven countries, and I think it's a very important question. And I think it's a very important question. The continent, which we later on also expanded, except for one, Djibouti, we could not actually see a specific trap by China. A lot of the challenge that countries faced after taking the loan was one of governance, the inability to repay because resources were not well managed within the country. So there is the question, the big question, of course, for what is the China kept on giving the resources. But if you look at the picture now, China itself has considerably decreased the amount of funding it's providing to many of the countries that have not been able to repay. So at the end of the day, China has its own interest, is not going to continue giving unlimited fund unless it's going to get its money back. And to get its money back, many of the countries that have not managed the resources, have to start doing better. But this is the same conversation also around a lot of the capital they're seeking. Currently, most of the debt that has high interest is coming from private capital rather than from sovereign states. A really important point. And just before we swing around to talk about Africa and its influence in the world, Lisa, just perhaps you could tell us a little bit about Africa, not just China, and where the U.S. is in this picture. I mean, I think if we start on the U.S. bit of things, it's definitely transformed into much more transactional partnerships with African countries. As you've seen in recent months, in the past year, a lot more deals being struck based on minerals for peace. You've seen that in the DRC, minerals for health care. That was a big controversial case that was in Zambia as well. So that, I think, is one that is a bit more precarious, and we can't really tell where that is going. But with other regions, you would also see that the EU is a very big trade partner with Africa and is trying to harness that relationship. It's a relationship that is trying to be put on a more level playing ground. We are partners rather than we are giving you something and taking something else. So that is an interesting one that is kind of in development in the next year as they're developing their own EU multi-annual budget to kind of determine how they're dealing with not just, you know, the concerns in Europe, but also how they're spreading themselves to the rest of the world. There's China that Tiggy has spoken quite strongly about. And also, Russia's influence is also something that is on the rise and something we can't ignore. I think in especially the Sahel, as we've seen kind of coups picking up in recent years, there has been some questions about how Russia figures as kind of aiding with the fighting that is going on on the ground, but also information warfare is also a big aspect. of this. And you can see in different countries where misinformation and disinformation is on the rise. And that is being linked to certain linkages with Russia, how they're able to kind of inculcate themselves in communities in these countries that they maybe previously were not as focused on. So there's definitely other countries that are trying to find their ways into Africa and their developments. Absolutely. And while we've mainly been talking about investment here, you're right to remind us that some of this is potentially very, very stabilizing. I was thinking as you're talking, indeed, Europe is very, very interested. One big telecommunications company was saying to me, Africa is our growth. We're going to do everything we can to work with those governments to get communications to all these people. And the Japanese, we have many Japanese delegations at the moment at Chatham House, but I'm describing how they are trying to strike deals with African countries, though one said to me, rather plaintively, we find China has got there first. That is another subject. Let us go to this question, then, of how Africa can use this influence more globally to get representation on international bodies. Lisa, for example, Africa wants seats on the UN Security Council, at least two permanent seats with full veto power, five non-permanent seats. This is the African Union's Eselwini consensus. How is that getting on? I mean, I think if you look at the most recent General Assembly, Africa was very much at the forefront. There are a lot of African leaders that kind of had this very unified message that they were trying to push on Security Council reform. But also more broadly, how is the UN actually reflecting the realities of the world? If a region that has quite a big membership in the UN and has a lot of voting power is not in these big decision-making rooms or has these big decision-making opportunities, how is that actually landing on the ground? So I think with how there's a lot of growing momentum in the past years, that is something that is definitely on the rise, in my view. I don't know if it's something that can easily just be accepted just because African countries have said so. It will need further push from citizens of these countries, from other regions to rally around these African countries that are pushing for this very long, long-running campaign for more representation. So I don't necessarily see how that is going to translate, but I think it does need to gain some sort of momentum even further. If I could add something to that, Lisa is absolutely right. But we do need to also acknowledge the fact that Africa's diplomatic voice has grown. Global institutions have been much slower to reflect the continent's position in the world. The African Union's permanent membership of the G20 was, for example, an active actor in global economic governance. The case for reforming the UN Security Council is a long-standing one. And African countries have effectively argued that a continent of 54 states should not remain without a permanent representation, especially as many African conflicts that are on the UN Security Council agenda on a regular basis, many of the countries are African ones. The current arrangement does reflect a global order that was established after the Second World War, when many of countries in Africa were still under colonial rule. So that history is central to the argument for African countries. But reform is never going to be straightforward. It will require agreement among existing permanent members and wider UN negotiations and consensus as well within Africa, who would be those two to represent, for example. So the question of veto power is particularly contagious as well, because extending them raises difficult questions about how to reform a system that is already built within that unequal privilege, not just in terms of Africa, but globally. Let me ask you both one thing. There is, as you said, 54 countries. How much do they speak with one voice when they choose? Obviously, they're very different with very different histories and interests and so on, and a recurrent tension between the bigger countries, Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, about who is going to be the voice of. Africa. How do you think that is working for the African Union? When it wants to speak with one voice, does that actually carry through? I think it's a difficult ask of the AU to have one unified voice, especially because 54 separate countries will never be able to. Absolutely. The European Union has a version of it, and it is much smaller. But it is not a request of the world, but it is a question for the African Union of, are there times when, countries could choose to act together in order to get some of these changes? And I think the AU is just about getting into those arenas at the moment. As Tiggy had mentioned, they had just joined the G20 in the past few years. So that is an entry point, I think, for the AU to be able to condense a lot of different opinions, a lot of different views into one singular voice to push that on that sort of stage. But it's also quite a challenge, I think, sometimes because of trying to bring together. There are so many different voices. The AU might lag in speaking up when the time is right. And that is obviously a situation that the EU finds itself in. But I think the difference would be that sometimes when the EU is speaking as a unified voice, other European countries also have quite a high voice in the global stage, so can kind of support that voice that the EU is trying to push. Meanwhile, in Africa's position, it is usually just the AU that is trying to speak for a whole continent. In other instances, maybe South Africa is there also at the G20. So that's another opportunity for Africa to have a voice. But it really depends on what the issue is. I've seen that sometimes Kenya's president is the one that is speaking up on environmental issues on the global stage. So it's a matter of who is the right one in the right moment. But the AU should really be the one who is buoying all these voices together. But in all fairness, there are some issues in which African countries have managed, to coordinate effectively, particularly, obviously, through the African Union, but often also through some of the regional economic communities, regional organisations. Collective action has helped raise the continent's profile in debates on debt relief, for example, climate finance, vaccine access as well, you may remember from the time of the pandemic, but increasingly on reform of global financial institutions. But of course, unity is never automatic. Exactly as you say, Bronwyn, because there are many states with different concerns, some on security, others on economy, and others in relationships with external powers, some of those relationships not necessarily being supporting the ambitions from the continent. And this is also the same, if you bring it back to within the continent, one of the ways to truly leverage resources is by being able to process some of those resources within countries. But the infrastructure, the energy volume required to do that is really high. And one of the ideas that we've been discussing in the last three days is how to create regional value chains. But that means being able to effectively cooperate with your neighbours, surrendering some of your national sovereignty to improve the regional collaboration. And that is something that is really important. And that is something that some countries are doing better than others. The big interlocutors for the continent, which often we also define as African middle powers, so this is Europe, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and so on. They're doing a great job in the international stage, but their own role within the region is often contended as well. And that makes it very difficult to speak of countries that are effectively able to represent the continent globally. And that's exactly what we're talking about. Exactly the point that we were discussing on the UN Security Council, who are the countries that should join the UN Security Council as permanent members and represent the continent, which adds to the complexities of reform and representation. How is this combined influence of African countries working when it comes to the questions of reparations, return of cultural heritage? And I'm thinking particularly in a world where the US under its current administration is anti-WUG, as it puts it. Lisa? This is the whole topic of our Black History Month event here at Chatham House a few days ago. It's one that I think was a beacon of hope earlier this year when the UN resolution was passed, really spearheaded by Ghana, but also in collaboration with the Caribbean community to really get this momentum behind a resolution that was passed acknowledging the transatlantic slave trade as the gravest crime against humanity. So that was a way to introduce reparative justice. There's a distinction between reparations as we've seen it for many years. I think that's something that's always looked through solely economic terms and maybe a sorry, but pushing that in terms of how can justice be served in the present day for past wrongdoings. And sometimes there's legal challenges to whether it was not necessarily unlawful in the past, and that's why we cannot be trying to right those wrongs in the present. But with the reparative justice frameworks that are being pushed in the present, there's a lot of room for improvement. And I think that's one of the things that we're seeing in the present day with Ghana really spearheading that. I think there's more of a call for how past wrongdoings have affected communities until the present day. There's a very uneven playing ground that a lot of African countries and Caribbean countries find themselves in. So I think that debate had a comfortable majority that it passed with, yet many Western countries, they abstained from voting for that resolution. So there's a lot of groundwork that still needs to be done to get on the same page or around what reparative justice actually means. And I think there's a lot more talks that these countries are going to be leading on, on these discussions. But the question on cultural heritage that you also mentioned and restitution of those, I think figures into this really perfectly. I think around five years ago, I did read about in France how Macron himself actually commissioned an investigation into how much French museums have so many stolen goods from Africa. And in that report, it said that it was nearly 90% of Africans stolen goods are out of the continent. And hearing that finding, he actually did try to make efforts to restitute some of those objects. I think it's an imperfect setup in that many countries have to put through an application and then they're given back their goods. But it's something that is slowly getting there. And I think that's where we really see that many countries are banding with Africa and the Caribbean on this. And maybe we can see some really strong influence being leveraged there. He did commission that report. I should say, I don't think it totally accepted that word stolen or it may have avoided what the rights and wrongs, but it did count the number of objects from African countries in French museums. And without conceding in one sentence, the argument you're making, it did put his weight on the other side of, look, we need to look very seriously at giving some of this back. May I ask you both, were the African countries can solve their own wars? We have quite a lot of current painful conflict. What would it take for African countries collectively to try to bring an end to these? Yeah, you're absolutely right. Conflict remains one of the biggest obstacles, as you rightly say. And this is both in terms of Africa's influence and development. It's worse in Sudan, but also insecurity in the Sahel, the Eastern DRC, and parts of the whole of Africa at the moment is displacing millions of people. It's disrupting trade and deter investment and resources, including from public services. It is also exposing the limits of existing regional and continental responses. African institutions have important mandates and political legitimacy, but they often lack the predictable funding, the logistical capacity, and often, as we already discussed, the political unity needed to resolve some of this complex and often protracted conflicts, such as in Sudan. But also important to remember that external actors can also make matters worse when they support competing parties or pursue their own strategic interests. We have done quite a lot in the space on Sudan, including the role of the UAE, but also other Gulf states and so on. The African-led solutions are essential, but that does not mean African institutions could be expected to manage this crisis without adequate resources or international support, especially of the time, these conflicts and insecurities do involve broader picture of international partners. There's urgency for effective mediation, urgency for sustained diplomacy, and accountability also for those fueling conflicts. But it's very important that there is effective partnership of international partners and institutions working with African institutions to find a lasting solution for some of those conflicts. So let's just end with a positive question to both of you. Can you give examples of where a country is doing really well in creating jobs for young people? A single example is a difficult one, but I would maybe just start by saying that when we're talking about Africa's influence, we are maybe solely speaking about it through hard power terms, the economic might, military power. But we also do need to think about soft power. And I think you can see so many examples throughout Africa of how that is really on the rise. There's so many musical artists and content creators online who have so much more influence than the leaders of their countries. And that's, I think, where we should be looking a bit more on how Africa will rise to the global stage. So those are ways that they might seem frivolous at first view, but I think there's also an opportunity to reshape norms of how people view Africa. From the outside looking in, how people engage with Africa. And it can be as easy as going to a Nigerian restaurant in London and being like, oh, that's Michelin star level fine dining. So things like that, I think, are really on the rise. I'm personally from Kenya, so maybe I'll give a bit of a shout out to the tech sector in Kenya. We've really seen so many young people have a rise on the technology that a lot of the world has now adopted, but it started in Kenya. So I think that's where we should be looking for, I don't know, the next Silicon Valley of some sort. Thank you for that. And for that nice picture of people excelling and pressing themselves onto the world consciousness. Tiki? I have to agree with Lisa that it's very difficult to single one out. But I would say that countries that have managed to combine their natural resources with strong institutions, the infrastructure and clear economic strategy are doing great. And really much better than those that have not managed to do that. In terms of the sectors that have either potential or that are already creating jobs, I would, for example, give a shout out to South Africa, who has industrial depth and financial markets. If you look at North Africa, Morocco has developed strong manufacturing and logistics link with Europe. And countries such as Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia have significant markets. So I think that's where we should be looking for, and I think that's where we need to be looking at. And I think that's where we should be looking at. So I think that's where we need to be looking at. And I think that's where we need to be looking at. I think that's where we need to be looking at. I think that's where we need to be looking at.