Buying the Breakout? Bryce Miller IS BACK! (5/20 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
78m 7s
The podcast focuses on key player performances and injuries in fantasy baseball. Bryce Miller is highlighted as the player of the night after a dominant start where his fastball velocity increased significantly, making him a top waiver wire target despite the Mariners blowing his win. The hosts recommend dropping pitchers like Trevor Rogers, Bobo Chandler, and Foster Griffin to acquire Miller. Kumar Rocker's impressive outing in Coors Field is met with caution due to the park's unique conditions and his persistent control problems; more evidence is needed before trusting him. Nolan McLean's poor start and declining metrics (lower ground ball rate, fewer whiffs) raise doubts about his status as a borderline ace, though his weak contact allowed offers some optimism. Catcher injuries dominate the news: Drake Baldwin and Ryan Jeffers are both out for extended periods, thinning an already shallow position. Recommended replacements include Gabriel Moreno and Carter Jensen in one-catcher leagues, while Tyler Stephenson and Logan O'Hoppe are options in two-catcher formats. Finally, Garrett Crochet is set to make his season debut, showing encouraging velocity and potential for immediate impact.
Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports Got a fantasy question email fantasy baseball at CBSi.com Get ready to win your league Now here's Frank Scott and Chris hey there welcome in tough fantasy baseball today on Wednesday May 20th. I am Frank sample John. By this got white today on the show We had some big catcher injuries unfortunately are we buying the breakouts by lower heck no and much more let's jump in All right, Scotty over to you player of the night I Want to do Bryce Miller because Bryce was looking awfully nice here on a Tuesday night What he did Was throw five and two-third one-hit innings against the white socks no runs allows seven strikeouts in those five and two-thirds innings 13 whiffs on 72 pitches Huh You can't do that math in your head. That's an 18% swinging strike rate like that You like that you're like well, how about this? Seven of the 13 whiffs came on his fastball Which he threw 60% of the time So really spammed that fastball and It was a dumb fastball I mean to the characteristics of it were as As a lead as they come 97 mile per hour average 20 inches of induced the vertical break The high these are my favorite kind of highlights to watch a picture just blowing hitters away with this fastball that just You know looks like looks like it's taking off like a like a I don't know I like to say it's like it's launched off a ramp almost the fastball The kind of trajectory it takes to the plate which I know is kind of an illusion, but I just I just love watching that so much and Like this is kind of reminiscent It's kind of reminiscent of best price Miller the best version we saw before he like so many of these mariners Pictures kind of got sidetracked expanding their arsenals beyond maybe what they needed to Price Miller has a dominant fastball when he's healthy. I don't know that he was ever really healthy last year when he's healthy. It's a dominant fastball He's thrown it harder even then he was two years ago and this is the result. I think it was a Really encouraging start not just because of the result But because of the approach and I hope price Miller sticks with it because that fastball looks like a world-beater right now And there is no more valuable weapon a pitcher can have In a dominant fastball and the thing that really stood out so far in these first two starts with that fastball is the velocity Which you mentioned but just to put some perspective on it 96.9 miles per hour is what he averaged and last year That was 94.8 two years ago when he was a top 10 pitcher in fantasy. It was 95.2 So that I don't know if he can maintain that level of velocity he did in this start and Yeah, I think that's helped his fastball play up even more his slider and splitter were both great in the start as well each of those pitches had three whiffs Unfortunately the Mariners blew his win because I Think they were a little stubborn about leaving Louise Castillo in for the three-out say three inning save and then You know he ran into some trouble in the ninth and there was like just someone unfortunate hits against Andres Muñoz so they wound up blowing his win But overall it was a a great outing here for Bryce Miller and he finally looks healthy again I think that's really the biggest key. I had an immense amount of skepticism coming in just because I I thought he was broken and Still remains to be seen if he can stay healthy You know he's throwing harder after an elbow injury from last year So there is a little bit of concern But with all the injuries that have popped up and under performance at starting pitcher recently We need guys who can perform and right now Bryce Miller looks like he is one of those guys So 69% rostered he's still out there and some shallower formats very nice Bryce Bryce is nice twice I think he jumps to the top of the list of just Wave or wire pictures Logan Henderson is I think a little bit above that range. He's kind of like 75% rostered I guess this is an vacuum who would rather have Logan Henderson or Bryce Miller. I'm Miller I don't have Miller. I mean this was there were some encouraging signs prior to this I mean the velocity jump we saw even on his rehab assignment, but He made a believer out of me all over again with this start in Tenderson We've talked about some of the The factors working against Henderson before just How the brewers don't seem totally sold on him and are willing to send him back to the miners at the drop of a hat and even Even when he's up in pitching well, they don't Give him Open runway even they tend to pull him early. So yeah, I think definitely Bryce Miller over Logan Henderson I mean, there are a few names your way see if you would drop these for Bryce Miller I think some of them are pretty obvious, but forever Rogers. He's still 79% rostered Yeah, drop Rogers for Miller. What about Bobo Chandler 73% rostered? Yeah, I I think you need to do what it takes to get Miller on your roster I'm sure there's a line where I would say well you can't do that, but yeah If it's questionable, I'm probably gonna say do it. Yeah, I mean these are names that are rostered in more leagues than Bryce Miller What about I mean I have two names kind of as drop candidates later on foster Griffin is 79% rostered He two really bad starts in a row. I think that's pretty easy and read debtmers I would do it pretty easily But the read debtmer's thing is this man if you play in a fit or an x-fip league His underlying numbers are still amazing, right? Like he got wrong today He's been really bad over his last five starts or so, but man like his Kate of walk stuff and well we've seen this before where You know the the underlying numbers like read debtmers, but for whatever reason he just He can't really pitch to those peripheral numbers. So did I type this right? He had 19 swinging strikes read debtmers Yeah in this eight run outing It's just so weird ERA is now 507 for read debtmers that's compared to coming into the day So today after today it's 507 coming into the day that there was a 322 xeRA 329-5 387 x-fip so x-fip doesn't like him as much, but I think that's the least valuable of those three. Yeah, currently so yeah, it's And I'm sure read debtmers is gonna pop up in a streamer pitcher's article again But like the thing about a streamer pitcher's article is I'm having to choose among bad pitchers because If if people didn't think they were bad they'd roster them already and I kind of suggest streaming them So you'd always rather just go with what you have then stream anybody like I think debtmers was It isn't my top five streamer pitchers. I don't remember where exactly for this week, but I didn't stream them anywhere because I didn't have to Mm-hmm, you know, that's I thought about it in a few spots But I I wound up just having better options. So uh thankfully I did not use read debtmers Hope others out there didn't as well, but yeah, I would make that swap for Bryce Miller On Monday in the Tatt Wars Champions League I got a call from Ian con and we made a trade I got Bryce Miller for for Carson Ben So I think it's a trade that could just work out for both guys I think both players are really interesting and pretty happy to have Bryce Miller on that team now Especially after what Trevor Rogers did to my eRA and whip yes in the phones working the phones to make trades Frank I like it that is not something I would prefer to do But Ian con is a big phone caller trader. So whenever he wants to make a trade he gets on the phone and It's an interesting tactic because you can kind of Pressure somebody a little bit more over the phone I imagine you like wearing suspenders and having the like Brick-sized phone to your ear the original cell phones, you know Not even a cellphone like a like a cord a corded phone right the one The rotary thing where you have to like spin it. Oh wow you're gonna way back I had one of those in my basement way back in the day it was Uh an antique it's crazy stuff any who uh, yes Bryce Miller is awesome do whatever you can to add him What about Kumar rocker he's my player the night he was awesome as the bulk reliever here at Colorado in course field 7 and 2/3 shutout innings with seven strikeouts he had 19 whiffs on 103 pitches 13 of those came on the slider and He used the slider and changed up a lot more in this one. He faded his sinker I mean that slider was just insane 13 whiffs 57% with rate uh the Velocity was down a little bit on that pitch and it had one more inch of horizontal break one more inch of drop as well As usual you don't really know what to make of a starting course field it was super cold there and the Rocky's offenses Well, they've been better this year. They're still the Rockies offense. So We've seen glimpses here in their sky and obviously Kumar rocker has the pedigree But still three plus walks in three straight. I I think this is like a deeply you could take a stab and see where it goes it feels more like a Let's
watch it situation and see if he can build off this. - Yeah, that's what it feels like to me too. There hadn't been particularly encouraging signs from rocker. So, and then you add the weirdness of course, field. What adds to the weirdness further contributes to the weirdness is normally in that thin air environment, you would expect the breaking balls to have less movement, not more. And so the extra drop, I find curious. But pitches just don't respond the same way. So anytime you see one pitch play much better at course, field or much worse than usual, you have to contextualize it in that way and kind of just flush it to be honest and until you get further evidence in a more normal environment that it's a legitimate change. So, you know, coming into this game, Kumar Rocker had 7.2K per nine. He had at 9.4% swinging strike rate was giving up hard contact, 514XERA. Yeah, I don't see much reason to be excited about this yet. If it follows it up with another start like this, that changes things. - Yeah, I think that's well said there with Kumar Rocker. The control is still really bad. Even after the start, it's four walks per nine on the season and only a 7.4K per nine. So really, really encouraging outing here from Rocker, but I do think that we need to see more from him. A bonus name I just wanted to mention and this is on the other side of the spectrum, a very rough outing, Nolan McLean. What happened here at the Nationals? Five and two thirds innings, nine runs allowed. Six of those were earned, two homers allowed, including an inside the park grand slam. Like, what was going on? It was a hard hit ball. It was up against the wall. The rookie that was in left field, Nick Morabito. He tried to make a play on it, but it was just a really hard hit ball. And it was a tough play, but there was only six whiffs in this outing from McLean. He allowed nine hard hits. So, looked at Nationals, just had his number here and this one. Even after this start, it's a 357 ERA 103 whip. One thing that stood out to me is God is the ground ball rate for Nolan McLean is down from 61% to 44%. And he has allowed a home run in three straight outing. So, just something to keep an eye on, I think, with him. Yeah, and not just that, not just the drop in ground ball rate. His swinging strike rate this year is less than 10%. But it was underwhelming last year. It's awful this year. Like, he's not getting whiffs. And now his ERA is in the mid threes. And I'm not saying Nolan McLean is bad or anything. It's just we were calling him a borderline ace very recently. And you look at the entirety of the profile now. Doesn't scream borderline ace. Still gives up very weak contact. 86 mile per hour average exofelastic very weak. And if you're giving up contact that week, putting the ball in the air isn't necessarily a bad thing because weekly hit fly balls are the most common form of out on balls in play. So maybe not the most common form of it. What I meant to say is the most likely the highest success rate in terms of converting that to it out. So it's not necessarily a bad thing, but it's just the strengths don't appear quite as strong all of a sudden and the weaknesses appear even weaker. And it just makes me a little hesitant to know where to place McLean right now. I am reluctant to say, oh no, he's shown it be a top. We shouldn't think of him as a top 15 picture anymore. But that's not really what the data looks like right now. And there are just a a dearth of options to put inside the top 15 at starting picture right now. Like, you know, we've all moved, Camchletler way up and obviously, Mizierowski who will get to who had another really, really good start. I have moved Otani all the way up there because I just I think that he's an ace. But then you get into, you know, other players that have warts, like Logan Gilbert, we expect it to be an ace, but hasn't looked like that so far this season. Dylan Seas mostly has, but he had a rough start here. And he's, you know, still kind of has those like Dylan Seas type outings that your question a little bit show to Imanaga who was great all year until he had that blow up on Monday night. And then, you know, like maybe Zach Wheeler, like maybe Zach Wheeler should, you know, be a little bit higher. But there are just questions with a lot of those names. So I might drop him down a little bit, but I still look at him, I think, as like a borderline SP one SP two type. But yeah, I would like to see more whiffs. I I wonder this a lot with Will Warren because I know he got a lot of called strikes last year. The reason I bring that up is no one McLean gets so much movement on his pitches that he and I would have to research this. But he strikes me as someone who gets a lot of called third strikes. And maybe that's why he doesn't get as many swinging strikes. But yeah, I mean, he would have to for his K-rate to be so good, with a such a low swinging strike rate. Yeah. And that, you know, that may be fine. I'm not, again, I'm reluctant to say based on that, that based on the low swinging strike rate or the reduced ground ball rate that Nolan McLean isn't trending toward being an ace. It's just a less likely path there. You know, usually when you look at swinging strike rate, it it aligns very much with, well, those are just the best pitchers in the game. Yeah. And McLean is on the kind of on the opposite end of the spectrum as far as that goes now. Yeah. Look, the most prominent outlier has been Hunter Brown and maybe Nolan McLean just kind of does it in a Hunter Brown-esque way. But we just don't really have a, I guess, enough of a track record to know if that's the case so far before this outing, everything looked pretty good. So not raising any alarms, but just let's watch. Let's see where this kind of home run issue goes for Nolan McLean. Before we hit our first break, make sure to like the video and subscribe on YouTube if you haven't already. I appreciate everyone being here. It's very late. Our latest start of the season. It's just Tuesdays are really tough. There's a lot going on Tuesday nights. Always a full slate of action. And it's all just between, boom, seven and 1230 basically. But here we are. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. Let's hit the news and notes. And it was a bad day to be a catcher. Drake Baldwin, we learned was diagnosed with a grade one obliques strain. He was placed on the IEL. Scott, did you see anything about a timeline here for Drake Baldwin? I think I saw some beat writers say something to the effect of their hopeful it could be a minimal stay. I think we've heard that hope a lot recently for hitters, especially you go on the I on, then it doesn't end up being a minimal stay. And obliques, even a grade one strain, they tend to take longer than that. I'm going to, I'm going to say two to four weeks for Baldwin, which, you know, could mean a whole month. Yeah. And it's unfortunate because he's been one of the top two catchers in fantasy. I mean, Ben Rice technically is catcher eligible. Well, we know he doesn't play catcher. But yeah, I mean, those two have just been ridiculous this year. The braves are also missing Sean Murphy. So it looks like Sandy Leon and Chadwick Trump will handle the catcher duties in the meantime. The other injury, how you draw it up new Ryan Jeffers needs, Hamay bone surgery and will miss six to eight weeks. Another brutal blow. I mean, he was a soft to a great start so far this year. Probably means more run for Victor Caratini behind the plate. Looking at catcher replacements. It's kind of dried up. Scott, we've had a lot of injuries recently at the position. We've had, you know, demotions with Augustine Ramirez. In one catcher leagues, the best options I see right now are Carter Jensen, Gabriel Marano. Dalton rushing is 52% roster, but he slowed down. His playing time has been scaled back to then he gets into like JT room, Utah at 44%. I mean, those are better options on the way for wire than you'd get in most years. True. I would probably lean Gabriel Marano of that group. I know Carter Jensen has slowed down a lot. He's still like Jensen more than Marano. I know Marano hasn't done much. He's hit a little bit better as of late, but yeah, I think Marano is safer. I think Jensen's probably high reps. I but Marano has actually continued. Let me confirm that this is right because it was a small data set last I'd looked, but I think he's continued the trend of elevating much better like he did down the stretch last year. Because that's always been the problem for him. He hits the ball well. He hits it frequently, good plate discipline and all of that. It's just it's the angles are less than optimal. They've been great so far. Yeah. This year. Ground ball rate is down. Ground ball rate is down even further. So yeah, two years ago, it was 50% last year, 39% 33% so far this season. He's a viable starter even without that. Like just over the course of his career, he's been a solid starter for fantasy when he's been healthy, which has also been the big problem with Marano staying healthy. He's healthy right now and he seems to be heating up.
So I think if you're looking for a short-term replacement, it's easier to say Marino than Jensen at this point. I still like Jensen a lot. Strikeouts have been too high this year, but I still think he's going to be a good one. It's right now, though, I guess I'd have to lean Marino. Can somebody get on the phones with the royals and figure out what is going on because everybody outside of Bobby Witt has been pretty disappointing so far this season. Michael Garcia has been okay. Michael Garcia, excuse me, Salvador Perez has been terrible. Vinnie P has been awful this year. Jack Caglione has not been what we expected. So come on, royals. Let's let's wake this up a little bit. Catch or replacements in two catcher leagues. I'm sorry. Tyler Stevenson, he's looked a little bit better as of late. Caper-Wise has hit better, but he doesn't really play all that much. There's Logan O'Hoppy if you want a little bit of power, but terrible batting average. Joe Mack, he had a big game the other day. Jesus Rodriguez, but Rodriguez has started just one of the past six games. So I don't know why the Giants called up these prospects and then decided not to play them, but that's what they did. They either. Yeah. It's official. Garicol will make his season debut Friday against the race. It is his first start in the majors since the 2024 World Series. It's got if you have Garicol in a daily lineup league, do you start him? First time out against the race. I think probably, probably he looked really good in his final minor league rehab, a start that was at AAA. I believe. Yeah, it was his only start at AAA. So we have all the data for it. The stack has data, 97 mile per hour average fastball. That's about as good as it's ever been for him. And 16% swing straight. He looked good. He looked really good. I think given his history, given his stature, given the way he trended on his minor league rehab assignment, I think I'd be comfortable starting Garicol right away. All right, continuing on. This one is interesting. The Marlins option, Braxton Garrett back to AAA after he struggled again with walks against the Braves, three innings, two runs, three walks in that one. The interesting part is that top pitching prospect Thomas White was scratched from his scheduled start Wednesday for quote, precautionary reasons. Now he has not looked great recently in AAA. Overall, it's like a 434 year A a 145 whip. Lots of strikeouts, lots of walks, but his last two starts in particular was like four runs and like four innings or less. He hasn't thrown more than four innings in a start to season. He has a ton of swing and miss. And I think there's a lot of upside long term Scott. I like the prospect, but even if he gets called up, I think there are big questions here. We don't know that he's getting called up, but it's just, I don't know, you can kind of see the writing on the wall a little bit. So if he were to get called up, how much of a priority would it be to add Thomas White? Who is the other recent starting pitcher prospect called up? Do you know who I'm thinking of Rob? He's already heard. Yeah, I guess it was Robby's smelling. I would say it was less of a, it would be less of a priority than smelling was. I think Thomas White is a better prospect than smelling, but he, you want to know it by looking at the way things were going at Triple A and it just, he's had control problems throughout his minor league career that have kind of undermined the stuff. You know, sometimes we see players like that get called up and it clicks right away. We don't know specifically what Thomas White might have been working on at Triple A that caused his numbers to be, to go askew like that and maybe the plan of attack would be better once he got to the majors. So like there are definitely ways this could work out. Betting on talent is never a bad idea if you have the means to do so. But my expectations are low for White if he does get the call. I'm trying to think what other direction they could go. I mean, obviously they're down to four men in the rotation with Braxton Garrett being sent down Ryan Gusto is on the 40 man roster. We've seen, we've seen him pitching the majors before. Yeah. Let me see what he's doing. We saw Dex Fulton up as a reliever previously. Bradley Blalock. Oh gosh. Yeah, they're not great, but yeah, I mean, they do have other options they can go to. Right. It's just the timing of him being scratch, white being scratched. It's for precautionary. What's the precaution we don't want him to get hurt or we think he might be hurt? That's the question. We're Braxton Garrett is so bad that we need to call up Thomas White. Is that the one that's that's the we don't want him to get hurt because we want him to start in the majors. Yeah. Yeah. So we'll see it's speculative for now. I look, if you have a roster spot to play with, I don't think it hurts to take a shot, but yeah, big name prospect Thomas White, but you know, he's he's had his issues this year in the Liners. I'll further contextualize it. Yesterday, we were talking of JT again and Walbert Arania as potential pickups, not with tremendous enthusiasm, but yeah, they're worth a look. That was kind of the attitude. I would pick up Thomas White over either of them. I think the upside is enough to justify that. So that that hopefully provides you with a little more context. We'll have to watch for this next one. Yandee Diaz left after getting hit by a pitch that hit both of his hands and hit both like fingers on both of his hands. So there's no update yet. He did go two for three with a home run before leaving this game and he's also a great start. So hopefully no broken fingers, but we'll have to wait and see on that one. Do not forget about this guy. Corbin Burns, he's scheduled to face hitters next week in a live batting practice. He's recovering from Tommy John surgery. I would think it's more like July, second half return for the season. And, you know, he didn't look exactly like himself last year, but he had big upside in the past. So potential name is asked there is Corbin Burns. Forrest I young. Oh, yeah. Winner. Wyatt Langford is aiming to be cleared to resume hitting it this week. He is on aisle with that forearm strain. The Mets are continuing on with their youth movement. They called up Alfield Prospect Nick Morabito. He was in the lineup batting seventh against a lefty. 23 years old. A second round pick back in 2022. This season at AAA. He was hitting 253, four homers, 14 steals, 755 OPS. I don't think that he is the level of prospect that either AJ Ewing or Carson Benjar. Do you have any interest at all in Nick Morabito as a fantasy option? He is not a prospect on their level. And my interest would probably be limited in our lonely leagues. I think more notable here is that he was in the lineup versus a lefty. AJ Ewing was not. So perhaps they form a kind of prospect platoon there which would not be great for AJ Ewing's value either. I mean, he started every game before this. It could just be one day off. But he previously started I think against like Framber Valdez last week, any homer off of them. So I would hope that they just play AJ Ewing every day. But maybe not. Let's see. Byron Bucks in return to lineup. So I'm looking at Ewing splits. He doesn't have a homer off the lefty. The homer came off a righty. I don't remember who the righty would. Maybe it was in that same game. I thought it was off Valdez. I could be. I guess I'm wrong. Yeah. So he's two for nine with the triple. Maybe the triple came off Valdez. Because I don't remember. I don't remember exactly. But that's what the numbers say. Two for nine with the triple two walks and three strikeouts against the lefty. I mean, that's obviously a tiny sample. But he's looked fine. I'm curious to see how it looked in the miners. That's majors. That's major hang on hang on. Stand by. Stand by. Stand by. Left handers in the miners. This year 342 with the 1050 OPS and 24 games. Last year against lefties. 313 with the 792. Like his splits are even lefties and righties. They don't need to play to an age of you and come on. I hope not. Someone who has a dueing on a lot of teams now. I hope that is not case. Byron Buckston returns to the lineup after missing five games with right hip flexor soreness. Speaking of the twins, they option Royce Lewis backs triple A. He was hitting 163 with a 31% strike out rate. Something of note here. Twins prospect. Kaelin Colpepper played third base at triple A on Tuesday. And they could be getting him ready to take over at third base. Someone who does have power and speed had some really big numbers in the miners last year as well. Name to watch there is Kaelin Colpepper with the twins. Another twins prospect. A manual Rodriguez will undergo surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb. He has not been able to stay healthy so far in his minor league career. The braze option J.R. Ritchie back to triple A, which we were expecting after yesterday's outing. Quinn Priester's rehab is moving to triple A. He'll make his next start on Thursday. Tommy Edmund is expected to begin a rehab assignment within a few weeks and Lance McCullochers was placing the aisle with right shoulder inflammation. Waiver wire pictures aside from Bryce Miller, of course. For I think kind of interesting names, Debbie Matthews.
took a tough loss here against the Astros turned in a quality start six innings two runs six six strikeouts to zero walks Now in two starts. It's been 13 innings of two run ball with 11 strikeouts to one walk We spoke about Kumaw rocker earlier Griffin jacks pitch very well against the Orioles five innings one run six strikeouts to one walk He had 11 whiffs on 62 pitches that is an 18% swinging strike rate in his five Starts not some of them have not been very long most of them haven't one forty two ERA one eleven whips So he's it's look pretty good so far in this transition Ben Brown not as good this time out. It was five innings seven hits three runs But he did have 15 whiffs on 82 pitches. So Scott if we are I'm gonna keep Kumaw rocker out of this conversation if you're just ranking the three zebby Matthews Griffin jacks Ben Brown. How would you rank those three? Brown And I think I go zebby over jacks I was encouraged by zebby in this one In a way I wasn't after the last one which was also fine seven shutout innings. I guess it was more than fine, but Velocity was down on his pitches. He didn't miss many bats at all and that was after a stint in the miners where he had a 472 ERA 152 whips. So He had to do more convincing than just one seven inning shutout start and then he falls it up with this outing and He threw his fastball 44% of the time in this one Which it's it's not it got five whips it played pretty well in this start it hasn't been a great fit pitch for him historically and I noticed a triple A he was throwing it a lot less he was throwing the fastball a lot less a triple A Getting much worse results than he had ever gotten in the miners Comes back up second start throws the fastball more like he did last year and got I had a more encouraging start I think overall so I wonder I brought up the point with Thomas White We don't know what he's working on in the miners I wonder if zebby Matthews was working on expanding his arsenal in the miners And it just didn't go well and So we saw him come back up and and refer to what made him successful in the past to the degree he was successful and You know again, I don't think his fastball is anything special, but what works is what works and He pitched more like he did last year than like he was pitching a triple A and got a similar result so I think that's encouraging and Reason to consider picking up zebby Matthews now One thing to watch with zebby is that he's always allowed a lot of hard contact and he did in this start as well Eight hard hits allowed 92.8 average exit velocity Obviously it didn't result in too much damage. He did give up a two run homer to eSok paratus I would probably rank them Ben Brown. I think I would put jacks second I'm just a little bit more intrigued. I'm not so sure that they'll ever let him go six innings because they're the rays and This is kind of part of their you know stretching him out type process, but I really like what he did in this one He'd eat through a bunch of different pitches his change up was awesome the sweeper was good the curve was good He limited hard contacts. He's overall I think he's looked pretty good so far in this role And if you play in point-seeks, he just gained SP eligibility and he's a spark boom, yeah I mean obviously extra interest there for jacks in point-seeks Been Brown also a spark. Yeah, but you'd take Brown over jacks With jacks it's like I see a really high ground ball right there, which is good 52% Very good The strikeouts are bad and the walks are bad. They weren't in this particular star But they have been for the year. They're both bad and it's really hard to succeed if both your strikeouts or walks are bad It's like it's hard enough if one of them is bad, but both of them are bad Who that ground ball rate is the only chance you have so unless the trend changes there for jacks? And again, it was fine in this star But I need to see more than one start. I think to believe he's gonna overcome that Yeah, look he does have a long track record of great K-Mine-Swak rates as they reliever now Will that translate completely as a starter that remains to be seen? But I would lean a little bit more towards like both of those numbers improving as we go a little bit further Into the season there for Griffin jacks and he was just so bad early on in the season. Yeah Two very deep league names Jason Alexander He got a spot start here for the Astros He threw six shutout innings with four strikeouts Has been terrible over all this season in a small sample But he was okay usable at times as they started last year and then eighth and he K pitched well at the Mariners five and a third one hit one run five strikeouts He's looked really good so far in May. He's also a sparp two deep league names got any any interest at all Jason Alexander Anthony K Not much a Alexander obviously had a good result here and four Houston last year because it was split between two teams before Houston In 14 appearances 13 of them being starts so pretty big sample there Jason Alexander had he 360 60 R a 1.25 whip 7.6 K per night. He was solid. He was a streamable option of fantasy Not in a way that I found particularly compelling like it seemed like he was getting away with it rather than actually thriving so Yeah, I'm not particularly moved, but he is He is a name that we know of and not because He shares it with a One of the all-time great sitcom stars, but because he actually performed pretty well in baseball last year Jason Alexander So we'll see if he can go in a run like that again As for K Anthony K Man, this is The profile here is about as ugly as it gets Hard contact no with very high pull rate much of it in the air He entered this start with a 634 expected ERA Yeah, so he has pitched better than that But even then it's been fringy for fantasy purposes and I don't think it's been good enough to risk Risk being risk holding the bag when the other shoe drops to mix metaphors there Two names as potential drops. I brought both of them up earlier, but are you okay just dropping foster grip and Enri Demors? Uh, yeah, I'd be fine with dropping either of them I think in most leagues they'd become Two of the more attractive pictures on the way over why if you did that because they they still seem like eyes I'm going to be mentioning in streamer The stream this leaper pitchers article every week But again that's that that's me saying they look like Some of the best of the bad options and so you know if you could pick up a good option instead if you could pick a price Miller instead Absolutely drop either deburs or Griffin for that would you drop both for uh JT again in Walbert arena? I Think I would be okay with that but my hunch is that Griffin and Demors end up being the best of those four All right, let's say our final break when we return I have a few waiver wire hitters to talk about Players who have leveled up this season are we buying the breakout we'll talk about that right after this Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. I got a few waiver wire hitters And names that I've talked about quite a bit recently Zach gel off another big game three for five with the sixth home run he had three RBI that strike our rate is way down so far this season He's 44% rostered. He's eligible at second third and outfield and Miguel and newheart he continues to hit He went one for three with his fifth homer He has started every game except one so far in May that's back to back games with the home run And he has three in his past eight games and you know, we've seen at times Miguel and do are have you know Just last year with the reds like he just goes on these stretches where he he can hit He's not optimized for power because it's a lot of ground balls and line drives But he's third base and outfield eligible What size leagues got do you think uh Zach gel off and Miguel and do hard need to be rostered in I think 15 team roto leagues Do they need to be rostered in anything shallower than that pro If you have a need it's fine. I think if you need a corner in fielder and and do harves case middle and fielder and gel off's case They're hot amp plays. I think that's totally fine I don't think I don't think if you just if you can't clear a spot for them you're gonna end up missing out on much in the long run And do hard does have these stretches and Maybe he'll be useful maybe he'll sustain a better than average batting average Just got a weird way to phrase that but maybe he will. I mean historically he has done that um But the playing time is always tenuous with him and Even though he's getting it right now. I imagine It would be a stretch to think he always will get it, you know, and then gel off gel off Is showing signs of real growth here, but As with any small sample size case
that could revert, you know. The longer sample of his career suggests he's not going to sustain a 23% strike out rate. He's not going to sustain a 25% pull air rate. He's not going to continue doing the things that have made him success so far. His growth possible. Sure, it's possible. And he does have a better average bad speed this year. That's an encouraging sign too. Maybe he is growing. But that's not the safest bet. The safest bet is he regresses to the mean. That's pretty much always the safest bet. So if you need a mental infield, how are you? You need a hot hand play there? Get off. I think it could serve as that is showing signs that maybe he's more so it'll be a happy accident if he becomes more, but I don't think you should count on him breaking out. I could see an argument for both in a 12 team Roto League, just given their positional flexibility and get off. You know, the fact that he's doing this and, you know, it's only starting to heat up in Sacramento now. Like I just, I think it's going to be a big summer of offense for the athletics offense, big summer of offense for the athletics. For the athletics lineup, let's say that. So I think I think just big days are coming for a lot of their hitters. And so I'm pretty intrigued by what gel often is doing. How would you compare them to Ezekiel Doran? You also had a big game at course, but he's got his batting average up in the two 90s now, I believe. Yeah. And his average ex-valosity is up six miles per hour this year. Yeah. He's a good athlete. Three bad apples. Three bad apples over 104 today for Ezekiel Doran who can play everywhere, but the battery positions. It's a picture in capture. Yeah. So I would probably go get off Doran and Andrew Har and that order. I think there's, I think there's a little bit more intrigue with Doran because then Andrew Harb because he can run. He's a good athlete. He's like 90th percentile sprint speed, but I am most intrigued by what gel off is doing right now. I think that's fair. I'm going to, it's going to take a while for me to get past my gel off skepticism if it wasn't clear. But I think if you're, I think he has the best chance of the three of genuinely breaking out to the degree that any of them will. I would probably most want to roster Doran because of that outrageous versatility. And I think it's close enough for what I'm expecting in terms of production. But yeah, they're all, they're all in the discussion probably for any size roto leagues just because there are so many hitter spots to fill. I think that's fair. I do have one deep name here. I don't think it really matters, but he had a huge game. So I'll just mention it. Ryan McMahon, two for four with a sock in the shoe. His fourth home run, his third stolen base. And he's mostly been terrible. He only plays against righties. I don't really think there's too much there with with Ryan McMahon. Let's get into players who have leveled up the season. Are we buying the breakouts? Scotty, this one's for you. If you know, you know, some of these will be very easy. I think we're buying a lot of the breakouts. It's more of just, I guess, a conversation about like how we value them the rest of the season. So James Wood. Yes. I think we're buying the breakout. We did last year. Like we need to see him sustain it because he fell apart in the second half last season. But three for five with an inside the park, Grand Slam. He's up to 13 homers, 43 run scored seven steals. Is he three 99 on base percentage? His bad ball metrics as great as they were last year, Scott. He is 100th percentile in average exit velocity barrel rate, hard hit rate. If we were redrafting today, I'm pretty sure you did this article recently. Is he a first round pick? Is he like an early second round? I actually did not have him in the second round because I put on you cruise in instead. Yeah, I would rather have wood. Wood then cruise. Yeah. I mean, on those cruises as numbers are better this year, especially like the stolen base gap is significant. So that's why I made that call. But look, James Wood would be at worst early round three. It's he's a great outfielder. If you can start him, you're in good shape. Jacob Mizierowski. He is the Miz and he is awesome. Yes, we are buying the breakout. I think I don't know. I haven't talked to Scott about this in a while. I am buying the breakout. But he was at the cup six shutout innings with H. Strike out. He had 12 whips on 74 pitches. Interesting that they kind of limited the pitches here. I know he's been dealing with some cramping in his lower body. So perhaps that's part of the reason here. But four May starts for the Miz. 24 and a third shutout innings. 37 strikeouts to five walks. I think he's a top 10 pitcher. I think he has vaulted himself past Noelle McLean. I mean, after today, I think I'd have to agree. He's down to 2.8 walks per nine. Less than three for Jacob Mizierowski. That's incredible. 17% swing strike rate. We haven't really seen many starting pitcher sustain a number that high over the course of a full season. Spencer Strider in 2023 was it? That is big year. That remains the highest on record for a starting pitcher who got a reasonable number of innings. So Mizierowski is. Yeah, it's. I will remind everyone that he started out hot last year too, but it was five starts. He's got twice as many now and has sustained it. I especially like that Mizierowski has gone. Did I not write that number down? I thought I looked it up beforehand. Yeah, six innings or more and four of his last five starts. So he's given you length. He's got the walks under control. His swing and missed numbers are historically great. It would be hard to deny the breakout from Mizierowski at this point. Bryce Terrain. He looks like he has leveled up even further than what he was doing last year. He just hit his seventh home run. He's sitting 292, 39 run scored, nine steals. So he is blending. I mean, the best case scenario, he's blending the power with the speed coming back for Bryce Terrain. He's got a 9/10 op. Yes, he's walking a ton this year, 17% walk rate. All the underlying stuff buys it as well. It's got. I moved Terrain up to my number one second base in last week. That was ahead of Fernando Tati's. Obviously ahead of everyone. Like, most notably Tati's Catelle Marte jazz. I moved Terrain up to number one. Yeah, I get that. It's been tempting. I haven't. And I'm not sure I will because I don't. I don't see any reason to doubt Catelle Marte and jazz chism in the long run. That's not a knock on Bryce Terrain who I was buying into before the season started. He's one of my most draft players. I'm definitely enjoying what he's doing. I'm buying into it all of that. It's just. That's a good example from today. There's a good example from today where that would kind of dim. Oh, Boba Shet. Boba Shet today. So Boba Shet hit two home runs today after hitting one yesterday, is up to five. Three of the five have come in the last two days. He looks like he's suddenly heating up. I said on yesterday's show that I have not worried about Boba Shet once this year, even though there was nothing. There wasn't much encouraging you could find there. I expect a batting average was pretty good, but like. Yeah, I had contributed nothing over a solid length of time. And now all of a sudden, he seems to be snapping back into place. This is what could be so frustrating and so difficult about analyzing baseball specifically is that the sample is never really. Never feels big enough to be sure. A player can endure a rough patch that last month, that last an entire season. And then the next year, he's suddenly fine again. And so I think. I bring up track record a lot when talking about how much faith I have in a player or don't have in a player. I refer to his track record. And I think sometimes people think it's like a magic incantation or something that I'm reciting and just ignoring the evidence directly in front of them. But that's just because it's hard to get a sample big enough. Like I just said, you could have full length seasons where the player just does something out of character, but then over the larger sample, he ends up being the same guy he's always been. So for players who've been around as long as Boba Shit has, as long as Katel Marte has, as long as Jazz Chism has, as long as there is nothing in terms of skill level, in terms of ability, underlying the change in production. Even then, sometimes that can be misleading, sometimes that can just be noise. I think it's always the safest bet if they have as big of a track record as they do, as long of a track record, to trust that they'll eventually get back to that. And the question is just when will it be?
be June, will it be August? Will it be next year? I can't answer that, but I feel confident that that's who they're going to be eventually because that's who they've always been in baseball is like that where you can have months of just noise that that throw you off the scent, which is also as a mixed metaphor doing that a lot today. But hopefully that makes sense. I don't disagree with the word you just said. I think atel Marte and jazz will get back on track. I just think Bryce Tarrang might be better than those guys. I think what he does with blending power and speed with a good batting average is something that those guys can't do. So it's just whether or not like you believe Bryce Tarrang can keep up this pace. I mean, that's, it's totally fine to have skepticism in that, but all the underlying stuff kind of backs it up. So I'm pretty much just I'm bought in on Bryce Tarrang. Ben Rice hit his 16th home run here. I think we all buy the breakouts. Got it. We add him all as a breakout. I guess just how high do you value him rest of season? Was he inside your top two rounds when you he was. He was. So James Wood wasn't, but Ben Rice was. I don't know if Ben Rice would have been if he didn't have the catcher eligibility. We're presuming he won't next year. I think is is a fair presumption at this point. Although Austin well, it's been so bad. I don't think they're going to do it because every time Boone has been asked about it, he's kind of like, nah, I don't think we're going to he's always like maybe we'll play Ben Rice a catcher, but I don't think they're going to do it. But by moving Ben Rice into my first two rounds because of that catcher eligibility, I had to move him up to fourth at first base. That's the only way to make that work. Yeah. And I think it's justified as long as he plays every day. He was sitting against lefty summer Leon. It's that's. He started to play more against them production. The production. He's given us the dream scenario in terms of production. And it wasn't unimaginable, but it was the best case outcome. He's delivering on it. I don't think he's going to be an 1100 OPS bat all season because that's basically just judge and autonomy that do that. But it's going to be really good. Yeah. Look, everything's backed up by the stack as data, how hard he hits the ball and the expected stats look awesome as well. And that's that's what we liked about Ben Rice last year. And so far, he has maintained all of that. We are running at a time. I do have a few other names on this list. Got so if you want to get a ferry. I went off on that tangent there. Sorry about that. It's all good. If you want to give a very quick thought on each of these four and whether or not you're you're buying the breakout, I have chase burns here who had another great outing Michael Harris who just looks like a better version of himself than we've ever seen before. Auto Lopez who just went three for four with his eight still in base. He's hitting 346 with an 874 OPS. And then Lane and Roup who six innings of one run ball three strikeouts, only three strikeouts. But you know, it's a 327 ERA 115 whip 10k per nine. So Roup Lopez Harris chase burns you buy in the breakout. Burns. Yes, absolutely. Had him as a preseason breakout. I see Harris more as a bounce back than a breakout. I know his exit velocity is up four miles per hour on average. But I think. I think that's largely noise. And like last year was an outlier and a bad way. There's some noise here that's making him look better than ever. But I think he's probably the same guy. He was the first three years of his career for reasons that I've already gone into. Auto Lopez. I'm definitely open to it being a breakout because the data has improved so much for a player who's still very early in his career. It doesn't have a huge track record yet. I'm skeptical, but I'm open to it being a breakout. I rank him pretty high. And then Landon Roup is probably the one who I've been dismissive of him. But he's starting to win me over now. He has 87, 87 mile per hour average exit velocity was what Landon Roup allowed today. And yet that raised his average exit velocity for the season. So very weak contact. Tons of ground balls, a 53% rate there. The career high swinging strike rate for Landon Roup. It's not a very good swinging striker, but it's the best he's ever had. And then, you know, he's actually underperforming his ERA estimators to coming into today. 275 expect a DRA 268.50404 X-FIP. So he's, it's getting harder to doubt Roup at this point. All right. I also have two rookies who keep on hitting. I guess they could be considered breakouts. I don't like to consider rookies like breakouts in the sense of fantasy just because they've never played before. But I mean, these two have been really good so far. Travis Pazana went two for three with a walk in his second home run. Plate discipline has been awesome so far. He's up to 78% roster. I think that number should just be 100%. And JJ Weatherhold hit his ninth home run of the season. Are you buying these two and what they've done so far? I am. I am. I mean, Pazana, we thought he would, the top line numbers would begin to catch up to the data. And that seems to be exactly what's happening. Still not slugging a ton, but with the kind of ex of velocity he's producing. I think that'll improve stealing a ton of bases. Great plate discipline. And then Weatherhold, I think is doing everything right. I know I know the batting average is lagging at 239. But I think I think that's the oddity in his stat line more than anything else he's doing. Mm hmm. The only thing with Weatherhold and I do buy what he's doing and obviously he was a huge prospect coming into the season. He is putting the ball in the air a good amount so far. And I think that's why the batting average is lower than we expected. He was more of a line drive, kind of all fields approach this year. It's been more flyballs and more pulling the ball. So it looks like he is consciously trying to get to power, which has been nice for the nine home runs. But I think that is why the batting average has been lower for Weatherhold than has been expected. But I mean, that's me nitpicking. He's been so good. So yeah. And it's a good point. Like that probably does explain it. I just don't think it's, I don't think any part of that is going to continue. Really, I think he's going to refer to more to a more balanced hitting profile and even if he doesn't with the amount of contact he's making, I think the batting average is going to be fine. You know, not 280, but not 240 either. All right. By lower heck no. Traitor and or hit his fifth home run. But I didn't realize how bad he's been. He's only having 236, five homers, 31 runs, seven steals. That's an okay pace, but a 642 OPS. He's just been overall much worse as he hit her so far this season. And Vinnie P. I can't even play the sound drop. He's just been horrendous. Oh, oh, for three with a walk and two strikeouts. And this one is hitting 194 with a 605 OPS. I know he got off to a slow start last year too. And then he just really kind of turned it on as the weather started to heat up. And it's a possibility that that happens once again. He's been dreadful against lefties this year. And I just still kind of wonder maybe that that back injury is lingering here for Vinnie P. So what do you think? Scott by lower heck no on these two guys. Trade Turner and Vinnie P. Definitely by low on trade turner. I the track record is well established there. I don't see a big enough bright enough loud enough red flag to make me think he's falling off a cliff here. And then Vinnie P. I'm inclined just knee jerk reaction to say by low. Let me look a little deeper here. Everything under the hood is pretty bad for Vinnie P. But again, it goes back to what you said about just track record and who he's been so. Yeah. I would still buy low on him, but it would have to be lower than Turner. Obviously, like I guess the probably the biggest concern for me is the three mile per hour drop in average batspeed for Vinnie Pascuantino. And I don't have enough experience with that stat to know how much it fluctuates over the course of the season. But that seems like a raw ability indicator that that may signal something's genuinely wrong with Pascuantino, but it could be noise. And so that's why I'd be willing to buy low. It just have to be pretty low. I don't know if this next name is a by low, but I am intrigued. Let's call it a by medium or just a by I guess, but a huge game for Brandon Nimble. He went three for four with his fifth home run, three runs, three RBI. No, I'm not just buying because he had a big game here, but his expected stats are the best of his career. He's hitting the ball really hard this season. It's a 289 XBA. It's a 469 X slug. It's maybe he'll be held back a little bit and won't achieve those because hitting in Texas is a bad environment. And it's just a bad lineup around him. But I'm very intrigued by the data. So if anyone in your league is not valuing Brandon Nimble properly, I would I would look to capitalize on that. We did have big games from both of the derands and Doran. So it's you know what that means. Doran, Doran, Doran, Doran. We already spoke about Ezekiel. Jaren, Doran, a monster game. Two for three with two walks of sock and a shoe, his fifth home run, his tenth stolen base. He has been playing more consistently.
only since Alex Coral was fired from the team. He has started against each of the last four lefties. But before this, he was, I look, it's been a bad season overall. His previous 12 games before this one, he was hitting 125 with zero homers at 29% strike at rate of 406 OPS. Would you actually buy low on Jaren Durant Scott or is there enough under the hood and kind of the way he regressed last season where you're like, I don't know if I would confidently buy low on him. I'd buy low on him pretty confidently. In part because I think you could get him for really low both the playing time issues that seem to have abated, but that's still, that was a big storyline early in the season that's probably fresh on Jaren Durant, the manager's minds. Yeah, I mean, the data, the data looks pretty normal for him. Not all of it's great, but the ones that aren't great were never that great. The strike out rates up a little bit. The average ex of velocity is pretty normal. The ex of velocity readings in general, a polar rate, not great, but not in a way that's abnormal. His bad at ball distribution is just out of whack so far. And maybe that's just, hey, he's off to a bad start because his ground ball rate is is up quite a bit. His pop ups are up as well. So, I mean, that tells me a look that's just someone that's not squaring the ball up. He's not hitting the ball as well as it normally does. And the barrel rate is down a little from the last two years, which would also suggest that. Yeah, I think he's going to be fine in the long run out that the playing time issue has sorted out. I think the raw indicators there are still strong and fairly normal. And again, his numbers have been so bad to this point that I think you could get him for really low, really low. So I think he's a strong by low contender, Jaren Durant. All right. May has been very kind to these two hitters. And it's just a reminder again, the theme of today is trusting in the track record and guys get back on track. We were scared about Rafael Devers and there were lots of reasons to be. And his start was so bad. I'm not so sure that he can live up to the numbers that we expected coming into the season. But so far in May, he's hit 318 with four homers and a 976 op. So, Rafi Devers has basically looked like himself so far in May. And the same thing could be said for Brent Rooker, who so far in the month is hitting 273 just hit his fifth home run of the month 16 RBI and 881 OPS. Another one, I was worried about the oblique kind of lingering here for Brent Rooker. But with the way he's hitting, I think we're just kind of past that. So it's good to see Scott Rafael Devers and Brent Rooker coming live. So I will point out that coming into today's game, Devers strike out right in May was still 29%. So it was still awful worse than we're used to seeing from him. Rooker has gotten better in May 27.5. We're used to him running higher strike out rates than Devers in general. I have a little more faith in Rooker being fine from this point forward than I do in Devers. But yeah, it's looking, it's starting to look up for Devers things are starting to look up a little bit. And hopefully he can at least skip back to who he was last year, if not who he was in his prime. Some hitting leftovers. Welcome back to Ronald Acunio. He went one for four with two walks and three runs scored. Xavier Edwards, another one. One for five with his sixth home run. He is homer than back to back games. Again, he continues this unfathomable power breakout six home runs on the season. I mentioned this yesterday entering the season. He had four career home runs in 239 games. So Edwards clearly doing something different and it is working so far. Don't give up on boba shit just yet. Scott mentioned two for four with a double dong four RBI in this one. Freddie Freeman also had a two homer game three RBI underlying data still looks really good for free. Freeman and his strike I rate is down from 20% to 14%. So all the things that seemed like we're trending the wrong direction for Freeman last year that might have led you to suspect. Oh, he's starting to decline. They've correct it. Yep. And so I think it was just kind of a sluggish start for him with the power. But I would say Freeman's is strong by low candidate as well. And then Nick Kurtz three for five with five RBI. It was a like minor slow start the first couple of weeks of the season. But he has really picked things up 276 431 on base percentage eight homers six deals for Nick Kurtz like what the from the from the Josh Nailer book of base running there for for Nick Kurtz. And he's he's walking a ton 20% walk rate. So yeah, he looking like I might be might be wrong about Nick Kurtz as a bus candidate this season pitching left overs. Jesus Lazaro a quality start against the red six innings two runs five strikeouts Kyle Bradish was solid still just walked too many five and a third two runs three walks six strikeouts. I noticed his location plus the season is 99 and for his career, it's 105. So it's just that continues to be a problem three or more walks in eight of 10 starts. He made 14 starts between 2024 and 2025. He only walked three or more in three of those starts. So for whatever reason, the control has just been really bad for Kyle Bradish this year. We did get a bad start from Dylan C's at the Yankees five innings five runs two homers allowed in that one. He also walked four and then Ryan Nelson a quality start against the Giants seven innings three runs three strikeouts two homers allowed in this one. Scott. I'm sorry. He didn't throw his fastball 60% of the time. Yeah. Well, that's a quality start though. Yeah. Any thoughts here on Nelson C's Bradish and Lazaro? I mean, the Nelson rule seems to be falling apart right when we came up with that nifty, nifty sound drop for you never get to play it again 60% of the time works every time. I would I want to point out with Bradish that he the most encouraging thing he did in his previous two starts was lead with this curve ball, which he said was by design. It's the pitch that had been working for him best this year. So he just decided to lean into a more and turned into straight, great starts. And then he files it up this time with the curve ball use being it being his fourth most used pitch in this one. And actually it was the slider, which in the past had been his best pitch that played best in this one. So I'm interested in seeing Bradish's comments on it. If he does comment on it, I know if I was in that locker room, I would ask him about it, but I wasn't. So I have to rely on the people who were because I think that is still an evolving situation. Bradish figuring out which pitches are going to be the best to lean on this year. Yeah, I think the biggest problem is that he just he didn't have that pitch working at all the curve ball just a 17% zone percentage. So he just he couldn't land it for strikes. I know typically you want curve balls to be out of the zone and you want to get swinging miss on it, but 17% is really low for a zone percentage. So yeah, I just think it was dropping more to it didn't have quite its usual movement profile. Yeah. So I just think he didn't have a feel for that pitch in this one call to the bullpen for the guardians. Kate Smith picked up his 15th save. I believe that either leads league or it's tied for the lead for the race. Brian Baker struck out one to pick up his 13th save for the reds Tony Santian got the ninth with a three run lead. He struck out to for his second save 18% roster. I believe it was TJ Anton who picked up the previous save for the reds. Scott, you're still just leaning towards Santian getting most of the save opportunities while Paganas Oh, I was definitely flaking on that. But then he comes back and gets a save here in a very conventional way. So he's probably back to being the front runner. He hasn't been as good as this year. The velocity has been down. So it's hard to have much confidence in samtian. But he does appear to be the front runner again with the save. save a loose one. For the a- for the A-shoros Brian King started the night, then he would be one run lead. He got the first two outs. He allowed a single. It was Brian, a braille who came in. He had a hit by pitch, but then he closed it out for his third save. A braille does have the last two saves for the a-shoros, but looks like Josh hater will probably be back within the next two weeks or so. So I don't think Brian, a braille really has enough time to make an impact for the Yankees for David Bettina. Unavellable Camillo DeVal got the ninth inning with a two run lead. He allowed a run on a walk and two hits, but picked up his first save. So if this was his audition in case David Bettina continues to struggle, it was not a good one for Camillo DeVal. For the nationals, Richard Lovelady got the ninth inning with a three run lead. They had two of the three batters he was facing were lefties. So I think they're just playing the matchups there. He picked up his third save. Scott the nationals do not have a closer and they never will ever again. Yeah, it's seeming that way, isn't it? Gus Varlin seemed like he was doing okay. Clayton and beater wasn't getting full-run.
run before then he should be back pretty soon. I don't think Richard Love Ladies where it's at even though he's now gotten two of the teams last four saves. He has the last the last two saves that they've gotten have gone to Love Ladies. So Oh, you're right. Yeah. He has three of their last six saves and two straight. Yep. Yep. But again, I just think they're a team that completely goes towards like matchups and things like that for the Brewers. Abner, Arie Bay got the ninth with a three run lead. He picked up his fifth save Trevor McGill pitched the seventh in this one. He was facing five six and seven in the Cubs lineup. He struck out two. It started to look like maybe McGill starting the work back into that ninth inning and maybe he will. But he pitched the seventh inning in this one. So I don't know that we could say anything definitively about the Brewers. Bolpin. I would still lean Arie Bay Arie Bay for now. But you know, yeah. McGill has the has the track record as we've talked about for the Cardinals. Riley O'Brien got the ninth with a two run lead. He allowed two runs on a walk and two hits. He took his fourth blown save. But the Cardinals wound up winning it in extras for the Giants. Just a brutal end to this game. Caleb Killian was going for the five outs save. He ran into trouble in the ninth. He left two runners on base. The lefty Matt Gage came into face. Catelle Marta and gave up a walk off three run homer that Giants are miss and their bullpen is miss. Keaton win continues to get it done. Now that I've dropped them in Towers. It's time to it's time to turn to Keaton for the Mariners. I mentioned this earlier. Luis Castillo was going for the three inning save. He allowed two runners to reach in the ninth. Andres Munoz came on. He gave up back to back hits. And the white socks took the lead. Speaking of the white socks with a one run lead in the ninth. They went to Grant Taylor, not Sir Anthony Dominguez. Taylor picked up the save. Dominguez has given up two earn runs in back to back outings. He has a 482 ERA of 129 whip. I don't know Scott. I don't know. Grant Taylor might be creeping in here. That would be bad news for me. I have a lot of Dominguez. Same. So yeah, he was plenty rested. I think the last time he pitched was Saturday. 32 pitches in that game, but that would have been two full days off. Look, Grant Taylor has been amazing this year. Yeah. I don't know. 178 ERA 13.5 K. Prenine 2.8 blocks per night. So he's not even walking that many either. I don't know. Yeah. He definitely has closer stuff. And if they hadn't signed Sir Anthony Dominguez, I'm sure Taylor would have been the odds on favorite. What's curious is he had not even been pitching in like a set up role. He has two holds this year. His previous four outings were all in the sixth inning. Is he when he entered? So I don't know. That's a little weird. But yeah, I don't know. Maybe, maybe they're giving him a look. We'll see what happens the next time the white sacks have a safe. To stream or not to stream on Wednesday. We have Andrew Abbott at the Phillies. Shane Bosch for a Venge game at the race. Merrill Kelly against the Giants Zach Thornton in his debut at the Nationals. Carmen Majinsky at the Cardinals. Michael McGreevy against the Pirates. I'm going to say Merrill Kelly. I'm going to say Andrew Abbott. And Michael McGreevy would be the third choice. Distant third there for McGreevy. I agree. On Thursday, we have Joey Cantillo at the Tigers, Dustin Megan's the Pirates, Kate Cavalli against the Metz and Luis Severino at the Angels. I think Cavalli's a fine play against the Metz. He had double digit strikeouts the last time he faced them. Dustin May's been a quality start machine. I don't really trust it. But I will reluctantly pick him second here. And I shouldn't have to pick a third on a day where there's only four. You're going to make me, I think all four actually solid. I would be okay with any of them. Yeah, you could do worse. You could do worse than Cantillo or Severino given that Severino is facing a high strikeout team. I'd probably lean Cantillo over Severino, but Cavalli and Mayo for both. All right, we're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow. Bye bye. Caramount Podcasts.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Bryce Miller had an outstanding start (5.2 IP, 1 hit, 0 runs, 7 strikeouts, 18% swinging strike rate) with a dominant fastball averaging 96.9 mph, suggesting he is healthy again after last year's elbow injury.
Kumar Rocker threw 7.2 shutout innings in Coors Field with 7 strikeouts, but his performance is viewed skeptically due to the unique environment and his ongoing control issues (4 walks per nine).
Nolan McLean had a rough outing (5.2 IP, 9 runs allowed, 2 home runs), with a declining ground ball rate (44%) and low swinging strike rate (under 10%), raising concerns about his ace potential.
Catcher injuries were significant
Recommended waiver wire catcher replacements include Gabriel Moreno (improved ground ball rate) and Carter Jensen, while Tyler Stephenson and Logan O'Hoppe are options in two-catcher leagues.
Garrett Crochet will make his season debut Friday against the Reds, showing promising velocity (97 mph) in his final rehab start.
Summary:
The podcast focuses on key player performances and injuries in fantasy baseball. Bryce Miller is highlighted as the player of the night after a dominant start where his fastball velocity increased significantly, making him a top waiver wire target despite the Mariners blowing his win. The hosts recommend dropping pitchers like Trevor Rogers, Bobo Chandler, and Foster Griffin to acquire Miller.
Kumar Rocker's impressive outing in Coors Field is met with caution due to the park's unique conditions and his persistent control problems; more evidence is needed before trusting him. Nolan McLean's poor start and declining metrics (lower ground ball rate, fewer whiffs) raise doubts about his status as a borderline ace, though his weak contact allowed offers some optimism. Catcher injuries dominate the news: Drake Baldwin and Ryan Jeffers are both out for extended periods, thinning an already shallow position.
Recommended replacements include Gabriel Moreno and Carter Jensen in one-catcher leagues, while Tyler Stephenson and Logan O'Hoppe are options in two-catcher formats. Finally, Garrett Crochet is set to make his season debut, showing encouraging velocity and potential for immediate impact.
FAQs
Bryce Miller threw 5 2/3 one-hit innings with no runs and seven strikeouts against the White Sox, generating 13 whiffs on 72 pitches with an 18% swinging strike rate.
Yes, you should drop Trevor Rogers for Bryce Miller, as Miller's dominant fastball and encouraging start make him a valuable addition.
Kumar Rocker threw 7 2/3 shutout innings with seven strikeouts and 19 whiffs, but his control issues and the unusual Coors Field conditions make it a 'wait and see' situation.
Nolan McLean allowed nine runs in 5 2/3 innings with only six whiffs, and his ground ball rate has dropped from 61% to 44%, raising concerns about his ace potential.
Drake Baldwin has a grade one oblique strain (2-4 weeks), and Ryan Jeffers needs hamate bone surgery (6-8 weeks). Top waiver wire replacements include Gabriel Marano and Carter Jensen.
Gabriel Marano is safer for short-term replacement due to improved launch angles and consistent health, while Carter Jensen has higher strikeouts but still shows promise.
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