Buy The Bubble or Watch It Burst?

The Macro Trading Floor. With me, Alfonso Peccatillo, founder of the Macro Compass and former head of investments at the Large European Bank. And I am Brent Donnelly, president of Spectrum Markets. I've been a portfolio manager, day trader, and market maker at the biggest commercial and investment banks in the United States. I'm also the author of Alpha Trader and the Art of Currency Trading. If you want to know what's going on in markets and where they're going, you found the right podcast. Hi everybody, welcome back to the Macro Trading Floor. I am very excited. Of course, we promised you we were going to do a bunch of shows and then we skipped two in a row because that's who we are. But we are back with a banger because my buddy, Brent Donnelly, has been to Singapore speaking to a gazillion PMs. So he can tell us what's going on. Bam, bam. Hello, everyone. Hey, Al. First, I'm going to start off with the funniest thing I heard when I was in Singapore is one portfolio manager said when I was in the meeting with him, he couldn't listen to me because he thought I sounded sick or drunk or something because he's used to listening to me on the podcast at two times speed. Okay, so you guys are those folks. Anyways, I told the hedge fund PMs and the non-hedge fund PMs, whoever is listening. Ciao, guys. So yeah, we do have a lot of listeners in Singapore. I think the most interesting thing about the trip was that sometimes when people tell you their view, you kind of can feel the level of confidence that they have and also just how convincing the view is. And almost universally, people were bearish dollar, but the thesis feels very stale. So the two main prongs are one is pension fund hedging will pick up again into year end because that tends to be a seasonal time when people increase hedges because they're trying to meet a specific benchmark by the end of the year. And if you look at historically, December specifically is a really bad month for the dollar. So there is some logic to it, but on the one hand, seasonality hasn't worked at all this year. Like we track all the signals and in 23 and 2024, they were amazing, super profitable. And this year they've been super negative. So I think that makes me wonder a little bit about the seasonality trade. The second thing is that I think a lot of the hedging that happened was a little bit political and emotional in April and May because it was centered in Canada and in Europe. And those were the two places where Trump had the most aggro, like the 51st state garbage and all that was going on with regard to Canada. And then the EU was being pushed and challenged to do something that they didn't really want to do. So I think I look at that dollar hedging more as a one-off. And then you got to think, okay, well, why would it happen into year end? For central banks, I think there is an argument that they could buy euros into year end because they've been somewhat like people have been talking about de-dollarization of FX reserves, but it's really been de-euro-ization as well. So in the crisis in 2010, '11, '12, and then ECB QE in 2015, the euro share of FX reserves went down and it never came back up. So with Lagarde supporting the euro as an alternative to the dollar, I think it's reasonable to expect euro buying into year end. But then the other, like the really big one is people expect the Australian super funds to hedge into year end. And I got a lot of good pushback on that from people that know what they're talking about. And the biggest problem with buying Aussie as a hedge is that if stocks go down, Aussie's been going down. So it's a bad hedge. So I'm not a huge buyer of that sort of whole hedging thing. And then I think if anything, the Canadians have over hedged. So that's kind of like prong one of the theory. And then prong two of the short dollar view is the cyclical story with the weakening US labor market. And I just don't really buy that either. I think a lot of it is just changes versus levels. If you look at Jolt's unemployment rate or initial claims, they've shown a little bit of weakness, but they're closer to the strongest levels of all time than they are to weak levels. If you compare where those things are to any time before 2020, they're still very strong. So I think what we're seeing in NFP is more a policy shock that happened in April and you're seeing it in the data now, August, September. But then that policy shock eventually essentially was over by June as people just shrugged it off and stocks went back to the all time highs. So I don't really buy the structural hedging thing. And I don't really buy the cyclical thing. So I guess that makes me bullish dollar. And then on the Japan side, Takahichi is trying to violate the trilemma with like keeping the currency strong, but doing more fiscal and telling the BOJ to stay on hold. And obviously the market is laughing and buying dollar yen and selling yen on that. So I mean, there's so many things to talk about, but in terms of the dollar, I'm more bullish than I have been in quite a while. And I think we're going to see a rebound in the US economy as the policy shock wears off and financial conditions are just like insanely loose. I have to ask you about AI. What's the vibe about that in Singapore, the trade about AI and all that? So yeah, that's a good question. That was one of the main questions that came up was if you look at like, whether you look at gold, silver, Bitcoin, NASDAQ, they're all kind of the same trade now. It's Fiat debasement along with AI and there's a lot of skepticism about this sort of snake eating its own tail with NVIDIA financing open AI, then that money going to Corweave and then some of the money going to Oracle and AMD and then they buy NVIDIA chips and it's like this big infinitely, you know, like if you were doing it in XL, you'd get a circular reference error, but obviously that can continue until it stops. And so I think it's funny because the history has shown it's a lot easier to make money being long bubbles than short. So the common knowledge now is you just got to be long and the problem is though that everyone thinks that they can get out before everyone else, which obviously cannot possibly be true. So I think it's a bit worrisome, honestly, the amount of circularity in all this and the amount of how prosyclical it is, because if you look at like the AI investment is fueling the stock market rally, the stock market rally is fueling consumption because of the K shaped economy and then that consumption is continuing to push stocks higher and then the more money people have, the more CapEx is happening and then NVIDIA is making it, you know, the people that don't have the cash like open AI are getting the cash from NVIDIA so that they can give the cash back to NVIDIA. So it all feels honestly, I feel like it's going to end up being a financial stability risk at some point, but you know, I guess you got to look out for two things. One is inflation because policy is very inflationary to me in the US, but also in Japan and elsewhere. And I think that's why like you're seeing it's what we're really seeing as a debasement across the board of fiat. It's not a dollar down trade. It's just like self fiat and buy whatever by Righetti computing or whatever you want to buy the stock that went from 80 cents to $44. So I think I'm getting more concerned that it's everything is too prosyclical and everyone thinks it's all free money to just be long. But like I said, so, oh yeah, so sorry, the first thing that could stop it is inflation. I think the second thing is just one of the guys like Zuckerberg or Jensen Wong or somebody saying, it appears that we have reached peak capex like on a conference call or something like that because everything is all tied to this big snake that's eating its own tail. Oh, that's a lot to unpack. So the first thing I would want to comment on is AI. So do you remember that episode of the Simpson where there is the grandfather that is like the old man yelling at clouds? Yeah, yeah, of course. You remember that? Yeah. It's a meme. It's a meme. And that's a bit how it feels when I speak around with people in the industry. I mean, there are like, there's a small cohort of people that are very bullish this thing. And mostly there are incredulous people. So they just like, you know, this doesn't make any sense. It's basically money being recycled from media to others. Effectively, old men yelling at clouds while this thing goes up and up every day. That's literally what it is. And there's nothing bad about it because one day the old man will be right and you will have a big drawdown. But I remember a very senior guy when I started at my previous job and he said, "Rates are too low, man. This was 2015." He was eventually right. He'd only took, what is it, like seven years for him to be correct, you know? And that can be a little bit too long. So now, on my side, Brent, I've done some work and I will share it with you, of course, and all the other people that receive my research. For me, it's really hard to know what is the ROI of AI capex. I have no clue and there is very little visibility about that yet. The only thing I know is that it won't matter for a bit because if you read what Larry Page and Zuckerberg and the others are telling you, this is not about ROI. It's about an existential threat. It's about creating digital god before the other guy does, basically. So there needs to be a digital god that doesn't look Chinese, basically. That's pretty much what they're trying to achieve here. And basically, ROI won't matter until it will matter at some point. And when historically it matters, it's when the private sector credit funded manias like GFC, Asian Tigers, I don't know, China Housing in 2021, 2022, when basically the private sector leverage behind this medium becomes too big. Same for the Japanese real estate bubble in the 90s, right? And then I just struck how much of this AI capex is that funded so far. So the US has done about 400 billion this year and about 140 has been that funded. How big is that? A lot or a little? It's not a lot yet because most of it has been coming from operating cash flows, sitting on either cash sitting at Apple or Meta or Amazon, or it's basically operating cash flow. These guys keep producing a bunch of operating cash flows that so they can use those to fund their capex. Next year, the US has pledged another 500 billion plus. And there are other counters around the world during doing AI investments. So there will be more that funded AI capex. The cycle normally is that it becomes that funded. Then the market starts asking question, hey, you have a liability against this now. You have a debt to repay. Show me the ROI, right? And this can actually take quite some time. In the meantime, we are working on something that is called LPPL, something like a power law. It's something like a log power law, where basically what you do is you look at every human created bubble since the Tulip bubble in the Netherlands, and you can basically model how people behave during a bubble. They often tend to behave the same way. The price moves in first derivative up, so it moves linearly up until it becomes a second derivative. So it's like it becomes semi parabolic. And then it becomes a third derivative, where basically it's a full parabola going straight up. And most of bubbles look actually very similar to each other. And this LPPL system effectively is able to detect when you move from stage of a bubble to another stage of a bubble and so on and so forth. So I basically give up on the fundamental side of it, because I don't think it matters for a while. And basically it's all about analyzing price action to see at which stage of dysmania we are. And, you know, there is a lot of work that I can do more on this, but the initial findings are that we are not in the parabolic part of the bubble yet. So as a friend would say, you could decide to be the old man that yell at clouds, you will ultimately be right, we don't know when, in three months or in three years. I have any idea. Or you can say, I don't know anything fundamentally about the ROI and the timing of the ROI and this and that. And as he says, I'll just buy more, which seems to be what every guy is doing in the morning. You wake up and nine times out of 10, they've bought up some more quantum computing or whatever the hell it is. So you know, they're winning. As he also says this friend, the retail is winning against the old man that yells at clouds. So that's the interesting thing too. And even in 1999, I felt like, or I feel like everyone was pretty much bullish. And the internet was going to change the world. And then the few exceptions were like the older people like Buffett and Druckenmiller. I mean, I know Druckenmiller eventually went long, but the older people, like the people over 50 were the only people that were bearish. Now I feel like the dynamic is completely different. It's like, like you said, 50% of people are bearish and long essentially because they're skeptical of the whole thing, but they also know that what you just said is true, which is it can just continue for so long and be so exciting that you might as well just be long and wait for some evidence of something either in the price action or in the fundamentals that changes things. And like I said earlier, I think what it will probably end up being is a slightly crazy move to the upside and yields as inflation picks up because financial conditions are too loose and the Fed's cutting into loose financial conditions. But that's a story for, you know, that could be a story for June 2026. That's actually the problem. Now we move to talk about the dollar and rates and every other things that matter here. I remember when financial conditions were getting very loose, very fast, a few clients asked me if I could run some sort of study on the relationship between financial conditions changes and inflation. So basically the whole idea is if financial conditions get very loose, are you gonna see inflation picking up? And whatever lag you used, whatever transformation you used, the regression between the two had an explanatory power of nearly zero. And the whole thing basically was a bit surprising, I have to say, but if you reflect on it, Brent, the core PC basket doesn't have any S&P 500 in it. I mean, yeah, it has some portfolio management if you're a nerd working for Citadel, I'm sorry to bother you in your soul with this comment, but broadly, I would say there is no direct relationship. So the thing is, I agree with that, but I think what we've sort of learned is that fiscal is what drives the inflation because of the supply side. And I feel like labor supply also is gonna be challenging because of the immigration crackdown. Yes. So my view on inflation isn't really like transmission from financial assets. It's more just that there's a supply shock-ish kind of thing happening. And then so like loose financial conditions on top of supply crunch equals shortage of workers and maybe shortage of goods in some way. Another good friend, which actually works for a large hedge fund told me that they did a study internally, trying to figure out if the US has to spend 500 billion in CAPEX, who the hell is gonna build all that electrical grid that is necessary? I mean, literally, there is to be some manpower behind this, right? And he told me that by some estimates, depending, you know, how do you move with the variables, but you could add something about 100,000 jobs a month. It doesn't happen overnight, but as you basically put the CAPEX at work, and you need to actually work on this data centers, work on these electrical grids, you need actually people to put this stuff on the ground. You might have to create a lot of jobs in the US and then you would be them right because there are no Mexicans, there are no Dominican Republican guys anymore in the US as aggressively as they were fleeting basically into the country before during the Biden administration. So simply the supply of manufacturers, manufacturer workers in the US is way, way less than before. I would think so. Yeah. Put up a bunch of demand that can come from, yeah, I need a guy that puts up some electrical grids down and then you got to pay up for that guy. That's what happens. And then nominal wage growth goes up and then it's a very, very different market, very, very different macro dynamic from the one we have today. I would just throw out a theory that I don't know enough about this to know if it's stupid or not, but I'll just throw it out anyways. But like most inflation cycles are driven by somewhat by oil and then the pastor from oil and all that, like historically that's been the case. I wonder if there's a possibility that this one could be driven by electricity prices because I've seen some research showing like in areas, in localities where AI infrastructures being installed, electricity prices are higher than those where they are not. So like I wonder if the AI CapEx is actually big enough to suck enough electricity out of the grid that electricity prices are meaningfully higher and like, I don't know if that's enough to move CPI, but then maybe with already inflationary psychology remaining from 21, 22, you know, you're a company, whatever, you're a restaurant, your electricity prices go up. You think about your volume versus price trade off and you say, you know what, I think we could raise the price of the salmon entree by 10% and we're only going to lose 3% of volume. So let's do it. But I don't know. That's just a theory that I'm throwing around. It's actually quite interesting and it speaks a lot about the legs of all this brand because let's assume that your theory is right and inflation risk premium has to go up in the US. Inflation risk premium will go up more markedly when realized inflation will start to move. Your way, right, and how long can it take? Man, it might as well take six months from now. I mean, we don't know how long is that going to take. In the meantime, you still have the tail of housing disinflation. You still have job demand at like 20K a month. Well last time we checked, we don't know what it is now because, you know, we don't get any data, but it doesn't look very strong, right? And then you might say, look, how do I trade this because there are time lags between my view and when it comes through, right, into the market. And in the meantime, I might be caught into some weak nominal growth patch. Maybe, maybe not, but it's possible as well. I mean, I can make a case for why unemployment rate and the labor market will remain weak for at least another quarter. Right. The shutdown itself, right? The shutdown itself, I was looking at the numbers, it's actually not a small deal. If it lasts for a couple of weeks or longer, it's the equivalent of a couple of months of tariffs. So it's basically, if you look at the numbers, every month that the shutdown goes on, basically the discretionary spending that really gets cut like military payments and some other payments like federal workers, it accounts for, you know, around a hundred billion dollars a month. Now, that's not so small, is it? I mean, a hundred billion is three months of tariffs, if you think about it. What is that like in terms of GDP or whatever? I mean, I guess it's... No, I look at it in terms of primary spending. So a strong year of primary fiscal spending is one trillion dollars of primary spending. Every month of shutdown, it's 10% of that being taken. Okay. I mean, that's meaningful. It's not small. And I guess I have this knee-jerk response to just laugh whenever there's a shutdown because there were so many of them like since 1979 or whatever, and they never mattered. But actually that was one thing that I got a lot of pushback on when I was in Singapore and I kind of came away thinking I'm probably wrong to just laugh at it because there is like the real economic impact and then there's also the sentiment of just like the uncertainty of how long it could go on. I mean, there's a world where Trump could just leave the government shut down for a year or whatever and then all kinds of crazy shit would probably start happening. And even now today, I saw like I'm supposed to fly to Canada in a couple of days and I saw a headline that a lot of flights are being canceled and screwed up and stuff because of the shutdown, which I'm not exactly sure what's driving that since the air traffic controllers are not part of the shutdown, but whatever, I guess TSA or whatever. I don't know. But so there's all kinds of these weird ancillary things that could happen. And then sentiment also just like, you know, dysfunction and all that. So I'm trying to take it a bit more seriously because I mean, because of what you said and also because whether or not I think it's stupid, you know, if everyone else thinks it's important, then it's probably going to be a variable. Pretty much. I mean, there is then the real the literal macro variable, which what I said is not necessarily correct as long as you pay back the furloughed workers, right? I mean, if it's just a back payment, then it doesn't matter at all. But Trump is pretty public about the fact that he doesn't want to pay them back when they come back. And then all of a sudden, you literally tightened U.S. spending by 10%. That's not small because you're already tightening this year on tariffs. Don't forget. I mean, I gave the numbers and it's basically 30 billion starting somewhere in, let's say, May, June effective. So you're looking at like 180 billion to 100 billion from tariffs this year, maybe a little bit more. And on top of it, you're talking about another 100 billion from this. I mean, this could be three to 400 billion of tightening. That's 40% less fiscal spending in a year. That's a lot guys. 40% of your primary spending gets taken away. The economy will weaken. I mean, it's just a natural relationship. And then on the back of this brand, you have your theory is like, no, no, no, we're throwing a gigantic amount of AI topics is going to get bigger. This is going to create labor demand. This is going to create a squeeze in wage prices and electricity prices. It's a completely different setup to trade from the one I'm saying very different. So the real problem will be, we can both be right at different timelines. And then how do you trade this because it's that's a really good point because the sequencing would be weakness and then like super strength, especially if I mean, probably those people will end up getting paid just because politically it would be too damaging, I would guess. But so then you could have a lot of softness for one quarter, like you're saying, and then double the strength in the other in say Q1 of 26 or something, which is hard to trade. I want to go back to one point you made about inflation expectations because like I'm definitely not the only person or inflation pricing. I'm definitely not the only person thinking like the policy mix is inflationary around here, but inflation pricing doesn't really reflect that much concern. And I'm always kind of a bit blown away by how correlated like future inflation pricing is to spot inflation, like it doesn't seem to anticipate very much. It just kind of like has like a tiny factor for future. And then mostly it's like spot plus a tiny factor. So there might be an opportunity to, to trade long inflation in 2026, however, people want to trade that. I wonder what should we think about the dollar and precious metal specifically, because the dollar itself today, I also put it in the Bloomberg chat, you might have seen my view on this, the dollar is rallying against what exactly, I mean, a few developed market low yielding currencies, Swiss franc, Euro, sure, the dollar is doing fine, but the dollar against commodities is, well, it's tanking aggressively, and the dollar against high yielding emerging market stuff Brent is also not going anywhere in dollar Brazil is flat to down since you left the dollar South Africa is down, dollar Max is flat to down, I mean, it's not really a strong cohesive dollar rally looks to me like the dollar is rallying against a cohort of currencies low yielding developed markets or Europe, Swiss, Japan, sure, but not against precious metals. It's, you know, they're, they're ripping very, very hard, which doesn't really belong in a regime of strong dollar, I would say. Yeah. It's a different regime. I feel like that it's more like fiat is being debased against other things. So like financial assets are going up against fiat and it, you know, whenever we have a conversation with someone about FX, people can list like five currencies, they want to be short, but it's hard to pick currencies. You want to be long because they're all fiat currencies. And so the ones like you said that have been doing okay are things that have yield because they benefit as, I mean, they're kind of more like financial assets, like Brazil is more like a financial asset where you're earning a yield and it's a risky asset. And I think that's what I've tried to do is, is get away from like dollar up, dollar down kind of thinking and just start thinking more in terms of each individual currency, like, you know, dollar Canada can go up at the same time as dollar Brazil is going down. And that's not at all weird in this, in the, like since post COVID, really like EMFX and G10 FX are just completely different products. So I think that's like a useful way to think about it is create a little scorecard or whatever of all your currencies and then say like, okay, I like this one, but I don't like that one. And to try to get away from like dollar up, dollar down and get miles away from commodity versus US dollar correlation, which is completely dead, like, I mean, dollar, if you look at like silver versus yen or whatever, I mean, the only ends has gone straight up and recently and silver has gone straight up. So there's really no relationship between the US dollar and asset prices anymore. It's more just that people don't want Fiat. They want, they want something that, you know, well, in theory, protect their purchasing power, although I don't know if we're getting computing or those kind of things that are the best performers are exactly protectors of purchasing power. But I mean, obviously they're just liquidity sponges. So if people view that liquidity is plentiful, they just buy anything that has a ticker symbol. I'm afraid that the title of the podcast will be buy more, so I guess that's, that's the summary of it. Buy high, buy higher. I mean, I wasn't around in 1999 to trade market sprint, you might have a better memory about this looks like if it turns into a proper buy more type of environment, because you can see a situation where this is really the case where the Federal Reserve were both of us are right. So the Federal Reserve cuts two, three more times because I'm right in the short term. And then next year, we just zoom higher in nominal growth and jobs creation and AI Cup X and yeah, I'll just you just rock it high. So then you have a catalyst for forming a parabolic price action, which is AI, and then it's 999 again, basically. So you have traded that. Do you have some advice for younger fellows? The biggest difference now is that the hiking side of the distribution has gone from FOMC for now, right? So it's actually in a way the macro setups even crazier from that point of view, because they were hiking at that time and obviously, you know, maybe that's what eventually burst it. Who knows. But I mean, the only thing I will say is my memory of the turn at that time was a lot of good earnings and stock went down kind of price action. So my guess is that the peak will probably come around one of the earnings seasons and like the easiest one to trade will be one of the people saying, you know, I think we've bought enough chips for now or like we've whatever like AI capex appears to have reached its limit or whatever, however they're going to word it. But I think that would be like the key thing to look for. I mean, otherwise it's just like the standard advice, which is like, it's really, really hard to make money being short in a bubble. So that means everyone's going to be long, especially now everyone. That's the common knowledge. So I would think there's probably going to be some extremely spicy corrections probably soon honestly, like I feel like it's got to a level of stupid now that it's would justify a correction even, you know, in the next say in the next month. So you don't short the bubble. That's the very short suggestion from Brent. And then if you're very brave, then you can try here and there. But the hardest part of this is do what Soros says every time I see a bubble, I just get myself involved because the reality is this, I mean, I was actually discussing with a friend, you know, if we think that this is a likely outcome, and this is really going to turn like 9999 on steroids, then actually the best way to make money off this is to have your own .io or .ai company doing some stuff related to AI, and then sell it to some guy willing to pay more. It's actually the best way to make money off this. Just being a bit cynical guys, but ultimately, it's just me trying to prepare for every sort of outcome. The real way to handle this is to have a framework to trade parabolic price action up and down, by the way, and down and down because I think that's an important thing is that in times like these, people forget that stuff does go down. Now like obviously as a long term investor, it probably doesn't matter as much, but as a trader, you know, like there's no reason why some of these things can't take massive haircuts just because, you know, the last marginal buyer got in and then you have a correction and maybe it comes from like some kind of repricing of October Fed because they don't have enough data or who knows, half the time you don't know the catalyst still after, but I think it's always just worth at least keeping in the back of your mind that stuff still can go down in a bubble, like there's some massive corrections in 1999. It wasn't like you just sat there and made free money. It was, there was still massive corrections. Talking about October Fed, since we're here. So the October Fed meeting is about 23 to 24 basis points priced in, so basically fully priced for a cut and we didn't get any labor market data. And if you listen to Trump, you're not going to get anything released anytime soon because there seems to be no negotiation here going on. Even the idea of not paying the military on the October 15th doesn't seem to, you know, stop this gridlock between the Democrats and the Republicans. So likely it could happen that we don't really have any data going into October. So what would the Fed do then? Still cut? Yeah, I think they would just cut anyways. I think it feels like they're kind of on autopilot for at least like one or two more cuts. So, I mean, I would assume they'll just cut anyways, especially when it's priced in. But one thing I wanted to mention, because we're almost out of time, is on the dollar end side, I feel like this last leg of silver and all that stuff has kind of been fueled by the idea that Japan's going to join the, the inflationary party because of Takaiichi, which makes sense. So two things to keep in mind is there might now be a little bit more correlation between Yen and equities, which there hasn't been for a long time. And the second one is probably 157, 160 area, there's going to start being chatter of intervention because that would be the, the sort of 6% slash 10 Yen kind of area in one month, which is usually when they start getting excited. Wow. That is even, there is even a beautiful ministry of finance and then when one of the interviews, not even the current ministry of finance, I think the previous one said a move of 10 big figures or more in less than a month in Japan is akin to a natural disaster. So, yeah, it's, it's tricky because like rate of change in currencies is usually what drives inflation, but Delian was at 152 in 2022, like three years ago, it was here. So it will take a pretty big move to actually generate more inflation in Japan. But I think generally on the ground in Japan, people are just hypersensitive to, to it because it's a political thing. So it might not matter about the economics. It I think maybe the politics will matter at 157, 160 area in Delian opening the natural disaster chart here. And I see that over the last month, this thing trade at 146 ish at some point on the 17th of September. So if the Japanese are Japanese by the 17th of October, you can still rally all the way to 155, 56 and you're going to be fine. But when you get there, then it's a natural disaster. So sorry for you guys, but you should close your trades. Yeah. That's how it works. I mean, I laugh about this stuff, but it's, you know, sometimes policymakers are very open. They just tell you, Hey, at this level, I'm in like, maybe you should set up a trade that accommodates for that, right? Yeah, exactly. Anyway, guys, thanks for listening. We're back. We don't promise to be here every week. We try our best, but you keep listening to us and we love you very much. All right. Thanks, Elf. Thanks, everybody. Ciao. Ciao. The content provided on the macro trading floor podcast is for general information purposes only. So general information or other content provided in this podcast should be considered as investment advice. Seek independent professional consultation in the form of legal, financial and fiscal advice before making any investment decision. Always perform your own due diligence.