Buy or Sell! Where Did This Kyle Bradish Come From? (6/18 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

[Muutko] [Muutko] [Muutko] [Muutko] [Muutko] [Muutko] [Muutko] [Muutko] [Muutko] [Muutko] strike out rate. He's been really bad against lefties. He was not good against lefties last year. I was trying to pull up his playing time just to see if he is playing against lefties this season. But in shallow or formats, it is kind of hard to hold on to a guy who is bad against lefties striking out a lot, especially in a head to head point league. I'm talking more from a five alpha. I think it's three alpha league. It's fairly easy to get out of cost hours just because he's not going to play against every single lefty. Even last year, he wasn't. The strikeouts are going to limit his value anyway. He's strictly a five alpha field league guy. Looking at it, he has played. He's sat against three lefties since April 25th. That's a pretty large portion where he pretty much plays every single day. Hopefully this is a sign of better things to come for cost hours. If you held on to him this long, I agree. Five alpha other leagues, head to category leagues where you have daily line-ups just playing against righties. I think that makes sense of points leagues. I still don't know if there's enough utility unless he can get back to the level of hitter that he was last season. We'll see about that with cost hours. Before we hit our first break, just a reminder to sign up for the FBT newsletter. If you haven't already, scan that QR code in the top right corner. If you're watching on YouTube, that will bring you right to the website, cbsports.com/newsletters, where you can sign up and you can get all of Chris's work delivered right to your email inbox every day for free. Let's take that break. We'll be back right after this. Instacart knows that some people go bananas about getting the perfect, well, banana. Some want them green. Some want them ripe. Some want them ready right when they hit their doorstep. But with Instacart's preference picker, available at most retailers, you can choose to get your groceries just the way you like. That means perfectly ripe bananas. Deli meat sliced just the way you want. And avocados that aren't still hard as a puck in the third period. So don't cross your fingers and hope for the best. Download the app and get groceries just how you like with Instacart. Welcome back news and notes. Apparently, Shoheo Tani's left knee inflammation is not behind him just yet, and he will need to manage this moving forward. It hasn't affected his hitting clearly over the past 30 days. He's obviously been amazing. And he's gotten those numbers up quite a bit. He has looked a little bit more human on the pitching side. However, against the race here on Wednesday, he allowed four runs over six innings. And that's now back to back starts where he has allowed four runs. He's allowed to have bad starts. He was so money before this recent stretch. He still has gone six plus innings and 11 of 12 starts. And even with these two bad outings for Otani, it's a 147 ERA 0.88 Whip. Chris, do you worry at all about this knee sticking around here and just kind of, I don't know, in the back of your mind with Shoheo Tani? Maybe, but to what end? I think it could limit his running and he's already ran less. Oh, yeah. But I think that's baked in at this point. He's on pace for around 13 steals. We talked about this in the off season that he wasn't going to run as much as he has in recent years. And I think that should be more than baked in at this point. It's also, we've got a month until the All Star Break. Maybe he gets an extra day off here or there, although they have a little less incentive to do that, I guess, with No Will Smith, Dolan Russian catching pretty much every day. They don't have that spare bat. But maybe it, maybe it keeps him out of the line up an extra day. I don't really think it's too much to be concerned about. You should note, he pitched today was not in the starting lineup. After he left as a pitcher, he came in as a DH. That's just a thing you can do, by the way. I saw people like, oh, this is so unfair. The league does too much to, and it's just, no, that's just the rule you can do that with a pitcher. You can take your DH out. It's just nobody doesn't because you don't have show he'll tony. Exactly. But they did put him in the game as a hitter after he left as a pitcher. So I don't think it's too much to be concerned about now. All right. Next up, Julio Rodriguez left early with a hamstring spasm. So this is something we'll have to watch. He's apparently day to day. The wording is interesting spasm. I guess we'll find that in the next couple of days. If he gets any imaging done, if it turns into a strain, my guess is he'll probably land on the aisle. But for now, if it's just a spasm, maybe he misses a few games and he's back in there over the weekend. Braves manager Walt Weiss said that Ronald Acunia is, quote, a long way from returning Acunia missed nearly three weeks of action with his previous hamstring injury. It's the same hamstring. So my guess is he misses at least three weeks, but maybe even more than that because, again, it's a re-injury of the same hamstring. Trade Turner was back in the lineup after missing Tuesday. With a wrist injury, he went three for five with his 15th stolen base. So nice sign for him. Obviously, we need a lot more hits from Trade Turner. Got to get that batting average up. Michael Harris has missed two straight with lower back tightness. And this back has kind of given him issues over the past month, often on. It hasn't affected the numbers. He's still hitting really well, but we'll have to pay close attention to that with Michael Harris. Josh Nailer has missed two straight with shin and wrist injuries. His teammate Luke Rayleigh has also missed two straight. He's dealing with back tightness. Chase Delauder was placed in the aisle with a fractured rib. The guardians called up former first round pick, Khalil Watson. Still no Cooper angle. We're waiting. I am specifically waiting. I keep bringing him up because I picked him up in Tout Wars. You pick up a player in Tout Wars. He has to go into your lineup. So I'm just here like patiently waiting for Cooper angle to get called up. So that would be nice if we can get him. Khalil Watson 23 years old, 16th overall pick back in 2021 has had a tumultuous minor league career. But this season has performed pretty well. 255 12 homers 15 steals 8 61 OPS hits the ball really hard as well. 2% rostered. Very deep league name. Christie. Have any interest in Khalil Watson? Yeah, it's been like four years since Khalil Watson was really a big time prospect. He was a Marlins pick. I believe first rounder was traded for Josh Nailer. And there's always been really impressive physical tools. I think jazz chism would be a good comp there. But even more extreme issues than jazz chism in terms of swinging missing. But he's played I think it's right around 100 games at triple A. He's hit 20 homers, 25 stolen bases. It's with a 255 batting average. It's with a pretty high strike outrate. There are lots of reasons to be skeptical that this is going to work for Khalil Watson. But it's a fairly fantasy friendly skill set if he can make enough content. I don't expect he will, but worth keeping an eye on certainly an AL only. Yeah, I think AL only I think I would just keep an eye on him in 15 team road o leagues and just all right, does he get regular playing time here? Does he do anything with that? Does he keep the strike out right down? If he does, then I think maybe he could matter in some deeper mixed leagues again. The name there is Khalil Watson. Cole Reagan's was transferred to the 60 day I L, which means he cannot return until early July. But that seems very unrealistic anyway. So just kind of a procedural move here for Cole Reagan's to ask her Hernandez will take live BP Thursday and could be ready for a rehab assignment early next week. Will Smith went through a full workout on Tuesday, but apparently his neck is still bothering him a little bit. So Dave Roberts said it's unlikely Smith will be activated when first eligible here on Friday. Shane Bieber made another start at triple A on Wednesday, five and a third innings five runs four walks two strikeouts. He did get up to 80 pitches. The velocity looked fine. It's been most my expectations. My expectations are not high here. I will admit part of that is that in my head Shane Bieber is Cory cluber. And I like I just don't know why, but I get those two guys confused. And so in my head, sometimes I think Shane Bieber is older than he is. I think he's only 31. But in my head, I'm like, I'm like, I'm 35 or something. He's always, he's been like an old pitcher for a long time. You know, like even when he was young, yeah, he felt like an old guy. So I don't know what that is. But it's yeah, I given how troublesome this injury has been for him. Remember, this is a forearm strain or forearm tightness or soreness, whatever they called it. That was a result of pitching in last year's playoffs. And he's only just now getting back. I just, that doesn't sound like it's going to work out to me. Five starts in his on his rehab assignment so far. Six 88 ERA one 88 whip there for Shane Bieber. So has not been great out on rehab. Glebatoris was placed back on the I L with a left oblique strain. The same injury he dealt with earlier this season. So he will probably miss a good chunk of time. Michael Garcia was out of the lineup once they do two soreness in his left hand. Matthew Boyd will begin a rehab assignment Saturday. He was supposed to start last weekend, but dealt with shoulder soreness. The Phillies optioned Andrew painter to triple A after his latest blowup. He allowed six earned runs against the Marlins on Wednesday. And I don't want to write off of someone as young as Andrew painter Chris, but just from like a dynasty perspective, Feel it. very bleak for Andrew Painter right now. Yeah, I mean, the problem here is the whole secondary arsenal actually looks pretty good. Like he misses bats with the slider and changeup, the sweeper and curveball, limit hard contact really well. The fastballs are just an absolute disaster. And that's been the case since he came back from Tommy John's surgery. He adjusted his mechanics and just hasn't been the same guy. The fastball used to be viewed as an elite pitch. It's a really bad pitch right now despite being 96.5 with the 4C or 95 with the sinker. The sinker has a 15 degree average launch angle. He just does not get the ball down. Like if you look at the heat maps, it's all middle of the strike zone off to the side, but middle up. And I don't know if it's just, hey, can we find a better Q to get the command better? Or maybe he just like tries to go Corbin Burns and just like takes all that feel for spin and tries to develop a cutter as his primary fastball. I don't want to give up on him because you can still clearly see the talent that's there. But he needs to be a lot better, obviously. And he wasn't close to being useful and was terrible at Triple A last year. So we need to see a lot from Andrew Paineer before we're interested in him ever again. Yeah, I think if we just get him traded over to the Brewers, he'll probably just become a stud. So probably. Let's do that. Edward Cabrera's right hand is feeling better and he's expected to make his next start. No, you should not use him probably ever again. No, it's kidding, but look, he's talented, but it just, it has not been Edward Cabrera's season. Max Scherzer went back on the aisle due to back spasms and a very cool moment here as former top pitching prospect Daniel Espino made his major league debut with the Guardians. He tossed a scoreless inning with two strikeouts. Doesn't really matter for fantasy. He was struggling at Triple A. But again, very cool moment there for Daniel Espino. I have to be rooting for that. If you don't remember or if you don't follow prospects, Daniel Espino at one point was like maybe the best pitching prospect in baseball. Yeah. And he's just had a ton of shoulder injuries. It's been like three years since he's really pitched. So absolutely rooting for him. Yes. All right, let's do a little buy or sell. I will throw statement out there. Chris, you tell me if you're buying or selling it. And let's talk about Gavin Williams who got rocked at the Brewers. Five in a row. That'll be easy. Seven hits, seven runs, four strikeouts, two homers allowed in this one and changed up the pitch mix. He threw his sinker a lot more. Basically his sweeper and curveball are amazing. And all of his different types of fastballs get hit really hard. So I think it's pretty obvious. We wanted to emphasize those breaking pitches. But three starts in June a seven 63 ERA one 37 whip six homers allowed over that last three star stretch. So buy or sell. We need to pump the breaks here on Gavin Williams who did have a 458 X ERA entering this outing. You all bullied me into believing in Gavin ones. It is not lost on me. I was Scott. That was Scott. It is not lost on me that as soon as I was like fine, Gavin Williams is good. He turns into a bust. He's been awful. I have never been able to get a good sense on this guy. He seems like a guy who especially based on last year, the read on him would be, well, he doesn't get as many strikeouts as you want. The control is pretty bad. But man, guys just can't barrel him up. So he's going to outrun his peripherals. And it doesn't matter. And that's what happened last year. You got 306 ERA 430 X ERA. But that's really hard to do consistently. And now this season he's just been getting crushed when he's not missing bats. I mean, the 431 expected well-bond contact, that mark is so bad that it almost has to improve significantly just because that's not a viable, like that's nobody's that bad. Unless your like, Zebby Matthews last season is probably one of the few guys. So it's, he's probably due some regression in that regard. But he's still outperforming his X ERA by three quarters of a run even after this bad start. So I don't know. I genuinely do not know what to do with Gavin Williams because he has been confounding for a very long time now. And I just reached a point where I was like, clearly there's something about him that I'm not getting. And maybe that was premature. This is, this is why I try to stick with the ways I evaluate pitchers even when it goes wrong. I try to be consistent with it because it's going to work for most guys most of the time. And you have to live with the outliers and maybe Gavin Williams will go back to being an outlier. But yeah, it's been pretty ugly for, I mean, the overall ERA in May was 355. He had a couple of very good starts. He had a couple of really bad starts in May as well. So I don't know. I really don't know what to do with Gavin Williams. I just do not have a good sense for him. I think the answer is, and look, this isn't the, this isn't the most intelligent answer of all time. I think you just leave him in there, right? Like is there a lot of, not a lot of thought that goes into it because as he's the type of pitcher as soon as you take him out, Chris, it's like seven innings, one run, 10 strikeouts. I just wanted to talk about it because I think we need to acknowledge that obviously there has been some regression here. And he's given up a lot of barrels and it's led to a lot of home runs. So he's pitching more in the zone. But as a result, he is getting hit a lot harder. So I'm not sure how much we need to kind of reframe how we think about Gavin Williams because I don't know if you feel this way, Chris, like 25 through 40 in the starting pitcher rankings. They all have a lot of questions right now. So I mean, I could say, oh, yeah, let me move down Gavin Williams to SP 40. But I think it's kind of a big tear of a lot of pictures that clearly have talent. But they all have some sort of war as well. So I think he's someone that are about showed him a naga. Exactly. I mean, you know, if you look at it, it's, you know, I have George Kirby at 27. He has not been as usual. George Kirby self Freddie Peralty could say the same thing. Garrett Cole is not getting whiffs. Emanaga just had that recent stretch where he was getting blown up. Carl Swardon has been okay. He's slowly getting back there. Parker, I'm not great though. Parker Mestic has looked a little bit more human like. He's probably on the lower end of that, but he's been a little iffy lately. Yeah, it's pretty savage. The walks. Frembre about this hasn't been good. Michael King has taken a step back. Jose Sauriano has, so I just named all the guys that are between like 25 and 40 in my SP rankings. And so I think you just kind of leave Gavin Williams in there. It's feeling a little. It's like anti-globby. It's a little globi. It's a little globi. It's a little globi. It's globi. The bad guy. Yeah, it's it's not great. Let's talk about Nolan McLean because he was great. Seven innings. One underrun. Nine strikeouts to one walk at the reds. Still not getting a lot of whiffs, but that's kind of his thing. All season 10 whiffs on 101 pitches here. And he did change things up. He uses four seam and it's cut our lot more. His four seam fastball was really, really good in the start. But surprisingly, you know, didn't didn't get too much on the breaking pitches, which is supposed to be his bread and butter. So look, great start. You know, one of his best starts of the season. And he needed that by or sell. Nolan McLean is back. Uh, can I can I put on my dumb guy cap for a second? Not the one I'm wearing. It's a pretend it's a different cap. I actually love this cap. What if Gavin, sorry, Nolan McLean is better when he has less movement on his pitches? Does that is that two is that two galaxy brain of me because he had it's a little galaxy brain. Five five less inches of drop on his sweeper four less inches of horizontal break. Change up had three less inches of horizontal break. Cutter three less inches of drop. Uh, curve both five less inches of drop. And I bring that up just because something that we've talked about with Nolan McLean lately is he relied a lot more on called strikes last season for his success. Then he did swing strikes. His swing strike rate was 10.9%, which is good, but not elite, not not the kind of mark that you would think would support a 30% strike. And then this season, he's a guy who does not throw a ton of pitches in the strike zone. He relies on getting whiffs. And when guys aren't or sorry, he relies on getting those called strikes. And if guys are biting, like if you can tell, okay, this is the curve ball or okay, this is the slider, you can just wait on it. You can wait for the fastballs. And I wonder if that's just, you know, throwing with a little less movement. You can there is such thing as too much movement, I think. It can be harder to command. It can be harder to tunnel your pitches off of and make them harder to see. So we just talk about that with Michael King yesterday that he gets too much movement on his pitches. And so that's what I wonder. Is just, is there something there? I don't have a good, it's just a hypothesis. It might be a dumb one, but it's, it's the kind of thing where he was throwing harder across the board. The movement profile was a little different. It just suggests that he's tinkering with some stuff. And maybe that's the thought process there. I have no idea. But that's what I'm looking at here. You know, I would maybe buy that a little bit more. If his breaking pitches were better in this start, you know, I'm saying like, they had less movement, but it's not like the CSW or the Whiff rates were much higher on them in this start. So for seemer actually that really popped today. Yeah, exactly. But I do think there is something to, there are a few pitchers like this where they, they manage a high strikeout rate without getting whiffs because like you said, they get a lot of cold strikes, right? We talk about that a lot with Will Warren. No one acclaim among qualified starting pitchers has the second highest cold strike percentage in all of baseball. So that is what he needs. That's actually lower than last season. That is, and that's, yeah, I mean, that's exactly what he needs to get strikeouts here. So I guess is he back? This is a really good start. I think we probably just got like over our skis a little bit earlier on in the season. I think he's probably just more like a really good SP two, right? And we said that earlier in the off season, we're like, you know, his, his like ultimate upside is maybe he turns into like Logan Webb. That would be a really good outcome for, for no McLean, right? But you know, Logan Webb has always kind of been more like an SP two than an SP one type. And I, I kind of feel like that's where we're at with no McLean. Let's talk about Jackson Merrill who had a huge game three for five with a socket to shoot his eighth home run, his 12th stolen base last 19 games. There are some signs here. He is hitting 260 four homers, two steals 91.5 average EV 12% barrel rate rate during that time as well. By or sell Jackson Merrill is close. I want to believe I do. Do do do do do do. Yeah, I want that to be the case because the physical tools are still obviously really good. He still hits the ball hard. He's still a thing, the 87th percentile and sprint speed. But he hasn't been very good for a year now. So I tend to stick to my priors for a very long time. And as a result of that, I've been higher on Jackson Merrill than you guys. So yes, I would like to believe that is the case. I don't think what he did as a rookie and in the first half of last season was a total fluke. But it's been harder to believe that when he's just been so much worse this season than last. But I want to, this is a type of player that when the, you know, given the age, given the skill set, when the price is low, I want to bet on him because if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Look, there's not a lot of good outfielders out there. Anyway, I'd rather bet on a guy who I do think has legitimate upside. And I think Jackson Merrill does. So I'm, yes, I buy this one tentatively, weakly. I don't, yeah. I do think there's a little bit of PCA, Michael Harris in Jackson Merrill's game as well. Because he does chase a lot of pitches outside of the strike zone. He is very aggressive in terms of his swing percentage and his chase percentage. So he is a less tooled up version, I think, than both of those guys. It's no knock against him because I, I think he has some pretty good tools. It's like PCA and Michael Harris are kind of like in the 90th percentile. They're kind of free athletes. Yeah, they're, yeah, they're just, they're better athletes. They're 90 second percent or something. Yeah. So I think he just, he might run hot and cold at times. I mean, we saw in September last year where Jackson Merrill went off. So I think we might get a few months here and there where Jackson Merrill just like wins you a bunch of weeks. But unfortunately, he might just be an inconsistent player because of those chase rates. Nick Lidolo, four and two thirds innings, 11 hits, seven runs against the Metz, only two strikeouts, only seven whiffs on 90 pitches. I was watching this start. He has no command right now. He has no idea where the ball is going. Couple, couple of counts where he was ahead and then he lost guys and just leaving pitches in the middle of zone where like they can get hit hard. Ten of the 11 hits he gave up in this game were singles. So I guess you could say, all right, maybe it was a little unlucky that that is lying was this bad. But he also allowed eight hard hits in this game. So he's 87% rostered. He's 51% started. He gets the brewers next week. By our cell, Nick Lidolo is dropable. Well, it's kind of like what we talked about with Compratish where what, what annoys me is when the issue is command because that's the ineffable thing. And however you want to define it, he doesn't have it right now. If it's, you know, his zone percentage is down to 44%. Previous couple of seasons has been right around, basically his whole career has been around 50%. Down to 44%. So that's one instance. The location plus metric on fan graphs. He had been 97 or better every year of his career 104 last season. It's been above, like he's had good location numbers when he's been good. This year, I'm entering this started was 90. That's bad. The stuff looks the same though. Like he looks like physically the same picture. And so at some point, I think that's going to regress. And he's going to pitch better and he's going to start executing and start figuring out. Is that going to be in his next start? Maybe. Or well, maybe his next start, but I have no reason to believe that's going to be. Yeah. And yeah, I think he has to be dropped at this point. I'm not saying you have to drop him. Those are separate statements. But yeah. You know, and I think we are in a follow period among pitchers where there's not a ton on the waiver wire that I'm really excited about going to add at least. Yeah, we had that stretch with like debtmers and Sasaki. Yeah, and those guys are all. We saw some of the A's guys are still out there. That's like JT game, gauge jump. Yeah. But I think gain is like 80%. Yeah, he's getting up there. And those guys still pitch a really bad ballpark. You know, so like it's going to be tough. So not the Nikoladeau doesn't, but we've seen him succeed there. It's still theoretical for those guys. So I look, if gauge jump, his next start is really good. Yeah. Okay, I'll drop Nikoladeau for him. If I don't need a starting picture right now, I think I'd be okay with dropping Nikoladeau for like Mickey Abel, you know, that stash. Because he's probably another start away from being activated. Yeah. But there's not enough where I can say, yeah, definitely drop Nikoladeau. Because I just, if we're talking, I don't know, Eduardo Rodriguez, he's probably too wide to roster, doesn't he? 75% I think. Yeah. Like, I'd still rather take my chances on the Dolo in the long run. Or there were a couple guys who had good starts yesterday that we weren't excited about. I can't think of the names, but I, it would have to be someone I'm excited about. And there's not that many guys out there right now, I think. Yeah. I'm looking at the most added, Brandon Young, no. Dustin Mays up to 85% to be K and say, hey, if he's available, sure. Walbert Aranha? No, I mean, I know you and Scott like him more than I do. That's another one that I just like him, but I wouldn't make that swap either. Yeah. That's kind of a similar thing where he just doesn't have good command. And we don't have a track record there with him. Andre Palante. No. I think the, the only one is like gauge jump 61% roster. That's the only one that's kind of close for me. But he hasn't actually been great. I'd like him. I think he looked good. I think there are reasons to believe he will be good, but he hasn't been great yet. Sure. So I think in some shallower formats where, for example, in the Tautworth Champions League, head to head categories, daily lineup leagues, really shallow format. I think we use seven pitchers in our starting lineup at a time. And there's a lot of streaming every single day. Like I have a bid out to drop Nick Ladollo. There's only three IEL spots. So someone dropped your repress like I'm going to make that swap. I currently have it pending. So, but if you have the ability to hold him right, like you said this about Boba Chandler all season, we have bench spots for a reason. I love Nick Ladollo coming into the year. I still think he's really talented. I also wonder is like, is he completely past his blister thing? Because I think that could be a totally reasonable explanation for why his command is so bad. So, I can't answer that question. I would try to just bench him for now. I would not use him next week. But in shallower formats, if you need the roster spot, I think you could probably make that move. Let's talk about Sandy. I will have my vengeance. No. Sandy. Very different. Very different. Very different movies indeed. Another quality start here at the Philly's six innings, four runs, but only two of those were earned. Six strikeouts to one walk, 18 whips on 102 pitches here for Sandy. He changed up the pitch mix and obviously it helped out quite a bit. This Philly's offense is kind of in a funk right now too. I get that. But in four June starts, 289 ERA won one whip on the nose. Only three walks in 28 innings. I think that's a really, really big key here for Sandy Alcantara. Buy or sell. He's back. Sorry. I've just in my head, I've just had a maximus singing. I'll get my vengeance. I'll kill to get my vengeance in like the grease lightning, you know. Sorry. In the same outfits too. Yeah. Yeah. He's fixing up that car. Look, we saw this last year with Sandy. He was awful for what three and a half months to start the season. And then was great after the All Star break and basically looked like himself. So as mediocre to bad as he's been for much of this season, I always thought there was a chance that this would turn around. The problem is. Was it the first three starts of the season? He looked incredible. Yeah, you had a complete game Another eight inning start. I believe he was unbelievable and then it was just awful for like two months so Our month and a half probably so it's really hard to To get a good read on this This is another one where I think the command is is a big deal and I Didn't want to drop Sandy. I never did when I where I had him and I I'm definitely inclined to believe that he is back, but Is he back to a sub three ERA forever moving forward? No, I probably not But a solid 350 with great volume. Yeah, I think that that You you can expect that moving forward at least I think Whenever you Don't miss bats the way that say like he there's just a lot of balls and play against him like There you're you're you're gonna be more susceptible to like blow up starts and bad things happening Just because things are out of your control and on top of that the marlins rank defensive band 25th and defensive run save the season out of 30 teams. So You know, they're overall team defense is not great. I I think that he still has the talent if he can spot his pitches correctly To go on runs where he looks really really good But if I feel like if anything gets start at a whack for him even a little bit like That's where we get these kind of blow up starts for sandy. So um you ride the wave I think you continue to use them definitely in a point league right six plus innings in 13 of 16 He just gives you an incredible amount of volume There there will still be some bad starts here from sandy, but uh he's he's locked in right now so far in June Shane O'Mack shame a client of hand he struggled with control at Dodgers three and two thirds two runs five walks to three strikeouts He unlike sandy has struggled in June 7-11 ERA 213 whip uh by or sell that he is a bench Even with two starts next week against the royals and the debax Hmm do you buy that we're benching in a That's really rough Because point sligs are where you want the two star pitchers, but he's Kind of not very good in a point sleeve right now He's only gone six innings one time this season Yeah, and it's not just that he's pitching poorly. It's there's just no volume there There's no quality start potential because the the rays are giving him the drew rasmus and treatment But he has been as good as drew rasmus You know remember last year there were stretches where rasmus and would rip off three or four quality starts in a row But it was always 83 84 pitches and My client hand has not been that efficient all seats. I mean the one six inning star He's only pitched into the six I think three times So in a point sleeve. I mean that's where you want the two start pitchers. I'm not sure he's all that good in a point league So Yeah, I think my client hand is definitely benchable. I don't want to drop him there. There's still been I'm not dropping him too many good signs, but not great signs like strike our rate In May was pretty bad despite really good results and He's never been a guy who limits hard contact well. He's been you know kind of average at best in that result regards So yeah, I'm a little worried about shame a client hand and this last one Chris I think you will appreciate it and Eduardo Rodriguez a great starting in st. Angel seven innings one run five strikeouts He had 11 whiffs on a hundred pitches He is back down to a two 45 ERA on the season the underlying numbers do not buy it at all By or sell e rod is the 2022 version of Martín Perez who just got away with it all season I'm pretty sure you had multiple epic rants about martín Perez that season Chris and everybody Wanted to kill you for it, but Erod is this year's version of 2022 martín Perez by or sell I'm always gonna sell that And you should of course you should because he it just feels like there's a couple guys every year where we just tell people Sell sell sell and then they just do it all year and they just get away with it all year He's not alone right like Michael McGrivies how performing has expected his fit by 1.36 runs and foster griffins at 1.26 and Chase burns at 1.15, but I think if he has a 316 ERA instead of a 2 ERA you're still really happy with that So I don't think that one counts, but this the thing about baseball And and fantasy baseball and all this stuff is like The the fit and x ERA and Sierra and DRA and whatever numbers you want They're going to work most of the time for most guys There will always be exceptions and and Here's the thing right A 95th percentile outcome is by definition an incredibly rare thing That is something that you would only expect to happen Roughly five times out of 100 that's really rare How many starting pitchers are there in majorly baseball 150 or so Given take given take on any given time, but Let like if that's if that's the case. Let's say there's 120 starting pitchers who are healthy at any given point Well, that means you would expect Five to eight of them to have a 95th percentile outcome at any given time And that doesn't mean that the ERA estimators are wrong or the projections are broken or whatever It's just that's what you would that's just what you expect from that and so Someone's gonna do it. It might be Eduardo Rodriguez But there's no reason to bet on Eduardo Rodriguez being the one there will always be outliers And you will also always get go broke in the long run betting on any individual player being an outlier So no of course I sell this I Eduardo Rodriguez has a 482 x ERA a 408 fit He can be useful But there's no reason to expect that water Rodriguez to continue to be an impact player If you want to ride him for a two star week next week at St. Louis at Tampa those are pretty good matchups. That's fine but I know I'm of course I sell it By definition, I yeah, I completely agree with you I if you could sell high the thing is like a lot of people know like okay, this is a this is a drop or Like this is a holder drop situation. Yeah, I mean, I would hold for the two stars and honestly I would hold as long as he's pitching well But once we get one or two of those blowups from ERA which I think will happen eventually Then you go ahead and drop him. I would try to sell But you know places where I have him I've tried and obviously no one's buying so You can try it. I don't think it's gonna happen. I think I would be okay using him next week with the two starts however That is Eduardo Rodriguez. Let's take our final break when we return I've got some waiver names fun with arbitrary endpoints. We'll do all that right after this Welcome back fantasy baseball today. Let's talk waiver wire hitters from Wednesday's action and I'll just Pick up where I left off from yesterday. I've got to mention it Zach L off waited until the ninth inning But he did extend his hitchhriek to 21 games and he did so with his 11th home run of the season. We spoke about him yesterday I get why you would expect us skeptical about adding him in a head to the point league the plate disciplines not great But as long as he's this hot I do think he needs to be must roster He's 70% roster right now second third in outfield eligible. I moved him up to 18th at second base 21st at third base 46th in the outfield so Based on those numbers like even if three outfielder leagues some people will use Outfielder is at utility or other positions. I think he's kind of like on that fringe of just like Yeah, he needs to be on a team and in someone's line up the way that he's hitting right now Young guys who are doing stuff Cooper Pratt nice game two for four with a run RBI his first career stolen base Overall numbers at AAA were not great, but he was much better over his last 30 games or so That's why he earned this promotion Chris what size leagues do you think Cooper Pratt needs to be added or rostered in if any? I think it's 15 team leagues only yeah There's just not a lot of raw power there. There's some speed But I just think overall the offensive skill set just is not very impressive with Cooper Pratt right now So If you're in a 15 team run or league it's worth adding him. I don't really think anywhere else What about Henry Bolte one for four with his second home run He has started eight of the past nine games here. He's hitting over 300. He has six deals as well Plate discipline is not great hits the ball really hard way too many ground balls That was a problem for him in the minors as well I remain intrigued he's 39% rostered I think any five outfielder leagues Chris so even 12 team roto with five outfielders I think Bolte probably needs to be rostered in those That's fine. I don't have a ton of faith in it long term, but I We've talked a lot about how underwhelming outfield is right now. So I think it's okay. Yeah. I mean we've lost so many big names too It's like you probably just need to roster him at a necessity in high-fail fielder leagues, right? You just you need guys who are playing and right now he he is playing and he is decently interesting Uh, those were young guys doing stuff. What about an old guy doing stuff that's Paul Goultzman who keeps on hitting If I'm being honest, I have been hesitant to support Advocate for Paul Goultzman because I am waiting for this thing to fall apart Oh, no, you just jinxed it. He just keeps on it. Yeah, he's gonna go for like oh for his next 25, right? Two for five with his 11th home run. Three RBI. He did hit this home run off of a variety. He has three home runs in his past four games. He's been awesome in June. He's been, he's actually, his numbers have improved against right handed pitchers as well. John Carlos stands suffer to setback. So I think he's gonna play 45% roster. The only thing going against him right now, Chris, is just first base is loaded. So what is his utility? Like where and how can you use him? In shallow leagues, basically. - Utility. - True. - No, so here's the thing I'm struggling with. The overall numbers are really good. 366 X-Wobba, if he's not, you know, the overall numbers, the Wobba might be over 400 at this point. It was 394 antering tonight. The X-Wobba's 366, if that's all he did, that'd be great. He's still pretty bad against righties. It's improved, but 293 Wobba 289 X-Wobba, 28% Whiff rate, 87 mile per hour average, and he's like, "Thanks for the loss of me." This is one that I look at, and it's like, "Oh yeah, he's pretty good." And then it's like, "Oh yeah, he's still kind of just "a lefty masher." - He destroys lefties, man. - But if you can be a 700 OPS against righties and a 1000 OPS against lefties, that's gonna come out in the wash, it's like an 800 OPS. So maybe that works. You know, maybe that's just enough to keep it going. I don't think he's as good as he's been this season, but I do think he can be okay enough that the 45% roster rate that feels too low, yeah. - Oh, how about this? The Yankees play seven games next week, and they have as of now, one, two, three, four, five lefties on the schedule. - Oh yeah, I mean. - Wow. Paul Goldsmith should be 100% roster, just for-- - Yeah, I mean, one of them is Tarek's school, so I'll throw that out there. - Yeah, yeah, we treat that as a righty, still four lefties out there. He has a 479 X-Wob against lefties. His expected batting average is 360 against lefties. He's just crushing them. - Yeah. And what's crazy is even without Aaron Judge, this Yankee lineup is putting up a bunch of runs right now. So, they're hot and so is Paul Goldsmith. So you need a corner infielder, you need an outfield, first base replacement, so you just need a hitter to stream next week. Very, very good week to use Paul Goldsmith. - That was a good corner infielder, yeah. - Let's talk about some catchers here. Francisco Alvarez has been solid since returning. He went three for four with a run and an RBI. Seven games since coming back. He's hitting 320 with a homer. Carter Jensen had a huge game, four for four with a sock and a shoe. His ninth home run, his first stolen base. He has struggled, mightily, since the start of May, however, leading up to this game. And Joe Mack has looked better in June. Two for three with a walk, his third home run, and three run scored in June hitting 361. All three of his homers, 10 RBI and 1119 OPS. How do you write these three, Chris? Alvarez, Carter Jensen and Joe Mack. - Alvarez Jensen Mack for me. And I think it's Alvarez, small gap between him and Jensen, but I do like Alvarez better. He has the lowest strike at rate of his career. Highest expected Woeba of his career. There's a lot of good going on with Francis Gravarez, even if the overall numbers don't quite show it yet. Jensen, I still love the upside, but I think he's more of a number two catcher still. Whereas I think Alvarez is closer to being a top 12 guy. Mack is just a low end number two. You know, there's some power here. I'm trying to think there was a guy that the Guardians had forever, Roberto Perez. He was like always like the 23rd best catcher in fantasy because he'd hit 10, 15 home runs and do nothing else. Really had that 124 home or season. That's what I think Joe Mack is. You're hoping for 15 to 20 homeers in a full season. He has dramatically improved the Marlins success rate against base dealers. So that's nice. He's really good defensively. But I don't think there's much more than low end catcher two upside here. I gotta be honest, was not expecting a Roberto Perez drop on today's podcast. There you go. It's Chris has come with deep cuts. And speaking of deep cuts, Samad Taylor has looked pretty good with the Padres. He went one for four with a walk. His fourth stolen base, two run scored. Hit second in lineup between Tatees and Jackson Merrill. In this one, I know the Padres lineup has been really bad, but that's a pretty good spot to hit in. And Blazilexander, he is playing well. You just need more playing time. Three for three with a walk. A run, his eighth stolen base. He has started four straight, but then he sat three of four before that stretch. His underlying stuff is really good. The expected stats, he's hitting the ball really hard. In a deeper league, that might be one that I kind of want to get ahead of. Just like add Blazilexander to the bench. And if he earns more playing time, maybe there's something there. I'm not so sure it's going to happen, but any deeply interested Chris and Samad Taylor or Blazilexander. Taylor in five out of fielder leagues. There is some speed here, I guess, but I'm not totally enamored of either of these guys. I think Taylor more so than Alexander, just because we've done this before with Alexander. He'll go through weeks at a time where he looks pretty good, but it usually falls apart. So I don't have a ton of faith in that. But Taylor, you know, yep, I think 44 steals last season. He's up to 12 in 60 games this year. So something like a 30-ish homer pace. I think that can be pretty interesting. He's the Babip is crazy high right now. It's 478 after this start. He's striking out 28% of the time. I think he's probably more like a 250 hitter than a 340 hitter. And so once that happens, I think it's just going to be stolen base upside there. But maybe last name here, I included him in the waiver wire hitters because technically he's available in some leagues. He's 65% rostered and he just had a huge game. But what has happened to Dan's V Swanson? One for four with a sock and a shoe, his eighth home run, his seventh stolen base, the power speed pace is still fine for what you expect from Dan's V Swanson. But he's hitting 176 with a sub 600 OPS even after this game. He has been god awful against non-fastballs this season. Chris, I don't know what has happened to Dan's V Swanson. I think we need to see a lot more before we re-ad him in some of those shallower formats. But man, what has happened here? What's going on? I do not have a good explanation except that sometimes 32-year-olds just kind of fall off. And it's possible that we're seeing that. So it's not a guy with a huge margin for error to begin with. He's been a very, very low batting average guy for a while, pretty bad plate discipline. It's possible that he's just lost a little bit and that adds up in a big way when you're already a 700-ish OPS bat like he's been the last couple of years. So that might be the explanation just because there's not really anything positive to look at here. Otherwise, he hasn't lost bat speed, I guess, for what it's worth. But it's been really bad. Yeah. And it's weird because his plate discipline has improved, but his expected stats are just terrible. They are so bad for Swanson. So I think you hold on to him in deeper leagues, but obviously any type of head-to-head league where you don't have an extra middle infield spot, he probably does not need to be rostered. Weaver-Wire pitchers, Robbie Ray picked up the suspended game for the Giants against the Braves, and he was great. Six and a third shutout. He had eight strikeouts, two walks, he had 13 whiffs on 94 pitches, completely changed the pitch mixup in this one as well. Does look like he's in line for two starts next week against the athletics and home against the Braves, both are at home in San Francisco, so that's pretty good. And Peter Lambert, he was awesome against the Tigers, seven innings, one run, five strikeouts. But I noticed his velocity was down quite a bit across the board. Last four starts, very good for Lambert. He's a spark in points leagues. He's at the blue jays at the Tigers. Can I interest you at all, Chris, in two starts from Lambert or Robbie Ray for next week? Yeah, I think Lambert, what I noticed in looking at it is the upcoming schedule through the All Star Break is pretty good. It's blue jays, twins, raise, Rangers. I don't have a ton of faith in him being a super useful fantasy option, but as a streamer for the next couple of weeks with those matchups, especially in a point, I think that's okay. Ray, he did throw the slider harder in this one, and that is notable because his slider velocity specifically has been down two miles per hour this season, while his fastball is basically the same. So the slider has been getting hit really hard this season. The whiff rate's okay, but really bad results on it. Maybe there's something there. Maybe throwing the slider harder is a way to get him back on track. Obviously he was really good in the first half last season. It has been pretty bad for the last, let's say, 11 months or so. So I'm intrigued by Robbie Ray, athletics and braves. I don't love the matchups, even though they're both at home for Robbie Ray, where he, in theory, should be a lot better, but I think it's okay to use. him in a point league. I'd still be a little wearing in a road league. I agree with both. Yeah, I think in a point league, you can you could try and stream, especially for someone that likes to just chase as many starts as possible. But in a category as like I think I would still be fading both of these guys, Robbie Ray and Peter Lambert. Two deeper names. Jake Bennett looked pretty good for the Red Sox up against the Blue Jays, five and a third, two runs, five strikeouts to zero walks, 15 whiffs on 79 pitches. And I was pitching really well in the minors of season. He gets the Yankees and he's at course next week. So could be a deeply kind of just add and see where I go. I would not use him in those matchups. And Javier Assad solid outing against the Rockies, five and two thirds, two runs, only one strikeout. He does not get any whiffs at all. Three outing since rejoining the Cubs, a one ERA, a point six, one whip, two very deeply names Chris, but an interest in Jake Bennett or Javier Assad. Assad gets the Metz in his next start. So I guess you could stream him for that at Milwaukee. It's a good place for strikeouts if he got any. Yeah, two star week, but kind of jekyll and hide matchups for that. Yeah, I don't love that. Bennett, there's some interesting ish stuff going on there, especially with the minorly production, the Red Sox are a very good pitch development organization. I just can't do it against the Yankees and then at course field. There's no way. There's no way. Like that, that's, that's one that like, I don't know, there's maybe 20 pitchers I would trust versus the Yankees and at Colorado. And Jake Bennett's not one of those 20. Yeah. So I agree. I think it's interesting. And if he has a good starting as the Yankees, then it's like, okay, yeah, we might have to add this guy, but I just can't. If you're not going to start a guy on a two start week, I don't really think there's much reason to add him. Yeah, I agree with that in 12 teamers, but if you if you do play in like a 15 teamer or deeper, I wouldn't mind just adding him and let's see where it goes for Jake Bennett lefty gets a lot of ground balls decent whips in the minors this year as well. So we'll see what he could do with the Red Sox. I do have some fun with arbitrary endpoints here, Chris. I'll move pretty quickly through these. If you have anything to add, just go for it. Boa, but shit. We talk about him every day. Six straight multi hit games. And in June, he's hitting 387 three homers, 14 RBI, 10 39 OPS, anything on the shit. And we talk about him every day because he's getting two or three hits every single day. Every got six straight multi hit games. I think it's seven in the last 11 games or something. This is a good example of as bad as he was. And as frankly, underwhelming as the underlying numbers are, it's a 28 year old multi time all start. Those guys usually don't just forget how to play baseball. And so there's a reason I'm always going to try to bet on those guys when things are going poorly, especially when you can get them for cheap as you could have with Boba Shadda couple weeks ago. Now I don't think so. I think we're back to just kind of viewing Boba Shadda's Boba Shadda, I think. He hit 3 30 in the second half last year for a two and a half month stretch. He is that type of hitter where he can just rocket you up the batting average standings almost single handedly there. Again, that's Boba Shadda. Pete Crow Armstrong, another one last 17 games 425 nine homers, four steals hitting the ball really hard. Funny moment. I actually tweeted out just the word or letters PCA and the gift of DJ Khaled saying another one. And it was it popped up on the Cubs TV broadcast. That was pretty fun. That's the only reason you wanted to talk about it. Didn't you? I mean, he's another one. I bring him up every day. Oh, he's been. He's been incredible. Every day. Yeah. He's turned his season around. It was really it. This is one that he started turning around in April really like towards the end of April. We just didn't really notice it because he got such a bad start, but he's good. Yeah. Well, good. Hunter Goodman also pretty good. He is 21st home run 10 homers in his past 20 games. He's he's up to 21 homeruns now. He also has five steals. Pretty surprising there for Hunter Goodman. Jackson Toreo, another one in June. He's hitting 385 with eight homers, 17 runs, 20 RBI 1246 OPS. He won't get to a full season because he had the ham a bone injury, but his full season pace 43 homers 21 steals. That'll probably slow down. But or maybe he's just a super prospect that is like taking that leap, you know, he's 22 years old. Yeah. So it's entirely possible that hey, his mediocre quality of contact metrics his first two seasons were just because he was 20 and 21 years old and had just turned 20 like three days before opening day. I think. Yeah. So yeah, it's entirely I think Jackson Toreo has leveled up. Yeah. I just think it's more likely to be to a 30 to 35 homer pace, but it's entirely possible. Yeah. Cody Bounder has been awesome. He hit his 11th home run and I'm starting to think he falls into the Francisco indoor category where he's going to have a bad first month and then he's just going to be really good. So file that away for next year with Cody Bounder in a rough April. But since the start of May, he is hitting 307 with eight homers, five steals and an OPS over 900 during that stretch. Jeremy Pania in 28 games since for turning from injury is hitting 288 with four homers, four steals and the he's not hitting the ball hard, but the expected stats are very good during that stretch for an end of Tati's junior. Got his season long OPS. I did not think I'd be saying these words on June 18th. Just got his season long OPS over 700. So last 22 games for Tati's 376 to homers, six deals, OPS over 900 during that stretch and Freddie Freeman his 12th home run. Last 27 games for him, 323 eight homers, OPS over 1000. Freddie Freeman still very good despite being an older player at this point. Some other hitting leftovers Kevin McGonigal hit his sixth homer. He has three in his past nine games. Corbin Carroll hit a grand slam. Luis Arise had a monster game, two for four with a sock and a shoe and all three of his home runs this season have come on the road. So I actually think if he gets traded out of San Francisco, that probably would be pretty good for Arise's value. George Springer he went over three, but he picked up two steals and starting to make some stuff happen. Close to Montgomery had a big game, two home runs, one off of a lefty, one off of a righty. He has played 140 career games at this point, two 32, 40 homers, eight 31 OPS. Pretty consistent for a close in Montgomery. Ryan O'Hern finished a triple short of the cycle, three for five with his 11th homer, six RBI. I was watching this game. They interviewed him afterwards. They were like, were you thinking about the triple at all and going for the cycle? And he just started laughing in their face. He's like, dude, I'm not getting a triple on Ryan O'Hern. So that was pretty fun. Yeah. That's, you know, anytime we do like, came up a triple shy of the cycle. It's like, well, has Ryan Hern ever had a triple? Yeah. He's had 10 of them in a 2,717 played appearances. So that means not very likely any given played appearance, like a 0.3% chance. Am I am I doing the math? It's not impossible. Not technically not impossible, but highly unlikely. Yeah. Not, not something that you ever should expect. Ryan or Hern to do. Yeah. 0.4% of Ryan or Hern's played appearances have ended with a triple. We have some quick pitching leftovers as well. Braxton Ashcraft, another quality start. This one at the athletic six innings, two runs, one earned seven strikeouts to three walks. Very consistent. Two earned runs are fewer in 12 of 15 outings for Ashcraft. Carlos Sardin, not his best against the white socks. Five innings, seven hits, three runs, did have seven strikeouts, 13 whiffs on 99 pitches. George Kirby was just kind of a quality start against the Orioles six innings, eight hits, three runs, five strikeouts, zero walks. Over his last six, he has a 627 ERA and a 158 whip. And Casey May struggle a little bit in his return at the Astros four and two thirds, six hits, three runs, three strikeouts. But I'm here to tell you that I like Casey Mays a lot. I like the improvements that he's made this year, assuming he can get back to that pitcher he was before he went on the aisle. But he's done some really nice things this year. So I would still start and use Casey Mays with confidence, anything else on these four. No, I think Carlos Ron just hasn't locked in yet. And I think he'll be very good once he does. Kirby, I just, I don't know if it's going to happen, man. He just has not looked right for more than a year now. Yeah. He just feels like he's not terrible. He has a 410 ERA and a 131 whip. But it feels more like he might just be an SP 3 or SP 4. Then the SP 2 that we know him to be. So I think that's fair. Yeah. Call to the bullpen for the Astros. Josh Hayter got the ninth with a 3 run lead. He allowed a solo homer, but struck out three for his fourth save for the Dodgers. Tanner Scott was unavailable. Alex Vessia got the ninth with a one run lead. He walked three of picked up his third save. For the blue J is Louis Varlin. Shrug out the side for his 14th save. He is awesome. And for the Cubs, their first save opportunity without Daniel Polencia. Caleb Thielbar got the final two outs of the eighth inning. It was Jacob Webb who got the ninth with a 3 run lead. He allowed a solo homer, but picked up his second save. This was the name that we both gave out just yesterday. Chris. So I, I think in any leagues where you had polio or your chasing saves, you missed out on, you went to gomes and you missed out on Elvis Alvarado, I kinda think Jacob Webb might have, maybe not just like the closer for the Cubs, but I think he maybe will be the leader in the clubhouse there. - Yeah, I did see someone, I can't remember if there's a comment or on social media, but I went through all the Cubs saves last time Dana Plentya without Caleb, the O'Barrick at the first two, and then I think he got hurt. So that's worth keeping in mind here, but seeing Jacob Webb get the first one after he was the primary eighth guy for the last couple of outings, makes me definitely lean his way. - Yeah, and Theo Bar just being a lefty and just not being as good this season, Jacob Webb has just been the better pitcher. I think both of those things factor in as well. So stream or not to stream on Thursday, we have Shane Drowin against the Guardians, Jack Lighter against the Twins, Shane Boz at the Mariners, Sean Maniah at the Phillies, Aeronola against the Metz, Landon Roup at the Braves, Martin Perez against the Giants, Matthew Lerbertor at the Royals, and Gage Jump home against the Angels. - I like Boz at Seattle. I like Gage Jump versus the Angels. I like Shane Drowin versus Guardians. - Yeah. - I could be talked into Landon Roup and Aeronola and Jack Lighter who all have upside in any given start. There are some real options on Thursday, which is not usually the case on Thursdays. - Yeah, I would say Gage Jump, Shane Boz, my two favorite, and then a little bit lower Shane Drowin just against that Guardians lineup. I would stream almost anybody against them right now. And Sean Maniah at the Phillies, the San Diego Contra just had like 18 or 19 whiffs against that Phillies lineup, and they're kind of struggling right now. So Sean Maniah-- - I think that's right now. - Yeah, I think Maniah is kind of a good fallback streaming option. And then on Friday, we have Kate Cavali at the Raise, Griffin Jacks against the Nationals. Randy Vask is at the Rangers, Michael McGreevy at the Royals, Boba Chandler buddies in course field, unfortunately, and Jeffrey Springs home against the Angels. - Cavali at Tampa Bay is good. Don't mind Griffin Jacks on the other side of that one at home. Don't have a lot of faith in anyone else. Wouldn't be surprised if McGreevy had a good start. Wouldn't be surprised if Vask gets had a good start. But I'm not. - I'm really excited about it, either of those guys. - Yeah, I would go Cavali, Jacks, and McGreevy in that order for Friday. We are gonna wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on Apple. Spotify, and we'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. [dramatic music] - Paramount Podcasts.