Buy Low & Sell High Trade Targets Ahead of Week 2 + Players We’d Draft Higher in a Redraft (09/16 Fantasy Football Podcast)
67m 42s
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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
Swap way!
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It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
Off to the races!
And he stays on his feet!
He's gonna go the distance!
Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
Welcome to the show.
It's hump day.
It's Wednesday, September 16th.
We're into week two.
We're getting ready for Thursday night football.
Very excited for that game.
And very excited to talk buy low and sell high opportunities here.
This is an opportunity to steal someone from your league,
someone who had a bad week one.
Adam Azer, Jamie Isenberg, Heath Cummings, we are here.
I'd like to start with the most amazing stat I've ever seen.
Excited?
Oh, yeah, skeptical.
I feel it.
Skeptical.
Okay.
Dalton Kincaid had three catches of 30 or more yards in week one.
That's pretty amazing, right?
Yeah.
Okay.
You want some context?
Trey McBride has five in his career.
No tight end had more than five all season last year.
These are caches of 30 or more yards.
Dalton Kincaid had more than five all season last year.
Dalton Kincaid had three of them in one game.
According to Jacob, as I ran this by him, dating back to 2010,
the only other players with three,
only other tight ends with three catches of 30 or more yards in one game
are George Kittle, who did it twice, Rob Gronkowski, and Dallas Goddard.
Pretty amazing stat, huh?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Okay.
And we're off.
How are you guys doing?
Wonderful.
Who do you think the most added player in our leagues is?
Ooh.
I guess probably, is it Vele?
Because he was only like 7% rostered.
Yeah, I would say Vele.
It's Vele.
He's up to 46% right now.
Bucks and 49ers, DSTs are next.
Kalon Black after that.
And Caleb Douglas after that.
Not Emmitt Johnson?
I thought he would be up there.
Emmitt Johnson is only 5% added from 44% to 49%.
Interesting.
Yeah.
I dropped Jonathan Brooks for Emmitt Johnson in a league where I have Ken Walker.
I'm like, you know what?
I'm just going to lock that backfield up.
Lock it down.
Not a bad move.
All right.
Coming up on today's show,
I'm going to tell you why Rasheed Rice's average route depth was definitely different,
and we'll debate if it was a concern, but very different.
Second highest average route depth of his career.
Why Brees Hall should inspire Devon Achan managers.
Why Jamison Williams could be the breakout candidate.
You wanted him to be.
Why Detroit could beat Buffalo, and why Buffalo could beat Detroit.
And Jacob Gibbs is going to come on, and he's going to Gibbs it up.
News and notes real quick, and then we'll get into buy low and sell high.
We also have the worry.
It's Worry-O-Meter Wednesday.
All right.
News and notes.
Now we get to a more serious note here.
The former girlfriend of Josh Jacobs wants to permanently seal evidence and discovery materials,
and that could make it more difficult for the NFL to obtain the video.
This is not necessarily new news.
It's kind of broken.
We'll talk about it over the weekend, but just to reiterate here,
the woman who is involved in this incident, she wants everything sealed.
And if the NFL can't obtain the video,
you could speculate that that could lead to an earlier return for Josh Jacobs,
but it is all speculative at this point.
Christian McCaffrey.
This is also old news, but I don't think I ever said it.
Christian McCaffrey was dealing with cramps for a little bit of the game in week one.
That may have contributed a little bit to his lower carry total, but not entirely.
Ty Johnson, Bill's third down back.
He could play this week.
Again, not a single route run for James Cook on third down, even without Ty Johnson.
Detroit cornerback DJ Reed was limited with a foot injury.
Cleveland running back Dylan Sampson's on IR.
They signed Jaleel McLaughlin to their active roster.
Heath, do you think it didn't really in week one, but do you think this will lead Dylan Sampson being on IR,
lead to more opportunities for Quinshawn Judkins in the passing game?
If you'd asked me this before week one, I would have said yes, it will, since it didn't in week one.
I don't know.
We're skeptical now, especially since they had McLaughlin because they were playing Raheem
Sanders on third downs, who I don't think is a very good option on third downs.
McLaughlin has played that role before, so I would say unknown, but skeptical.
Ladd McConkie is we'll call him day to day at this point.
We'll wait to get an update.
We'll get some practice reports and see what Ladd McConkie is looking like.
But the Chargers, they did sign Marquez Valdez Scantling to their practice squad.
They had they have like three wide receiver injuries, so that's not necessarily related
to McConkie.
Washington linebacker Frankie Lou Vu is hoping to avoid IR really from a fantasy standpoint.
I think we're all looking forward to Washington at Dallas this week and Green Bay gets the
Jets.
They're going to get the Jets without safety.
Minka Fitzpatrick.
He's out this week.
Wide receiver Omar Cooper, rookie wide receiver out of Indiana.
He is out this week for the Jets as well.
He's week to week.
All right, here we go with the buy lows and the sell highs and also players that I guess
I'll call them buy highs players that we would draft higher if we were drafting today.
But Jamie, you want to start with?
Jameson Williams as a buy as a buy low.
I'm just curious about your your Jameson Williams stat.
So why don't you give that first?
Oh, well, I was, you know, just doing the research for the Thursday night game, which
of course features Jameson Williams.
And I think a lot of people knew this before I did, but he had two horrible drops in week
one and they could have led to like over 60 yards of receiving.
So he his stat line was four catches for 45 yards on nine targets.
He almost had six catches and he and he was tackled like inside the one on another play.
He almost had six catches for about 112 yards in a touchdown.
So he was at a big game, but it wasn't just that he had a 23.1% target per out run rate.
And obviously, you know, to even consider this, you have to overreact, overreact a little
bit to a one week sample size.
But he had 23.1% target per out run rate is Jameson Williams.
That's pretty high for him.
He's had 10 games where he's been higher than that and target per out run rate run rate over
the last two seasons.
And in those 10 games, he's had a 23.1% target per out run rate over the last two seasons.
In those 10 games, Jameson Williams has averaged 17.6 PPR fantasy points per game, which is
awesome.
So that's another way of saying give this man targets and he will usually produce and
he should have produced in week one.
He had a couple of bad drops, but he could have had a massive game.
Jamie, what are you seeing from JMO as a bylaw?
I really think, you know, just anytime he's going to get opportunities, he's typically
going to be somebody we're going to be excited about.
And so, you know, this was the first game that we saw with Drew Petson calling plays
and it didn't necessarily heavily.
Sam Laporta.
I don't think you should worry about Laporta either, but it still kept Jameson Williams
very much involved.
And so that was the concern is we didn't see this type of target volume for the majority
of time that Sam Laporta was healthy last year.
Really anytime Sam Laporta has been healthy with Jameson Williams.
So I hope it continues.
And if it does, I think Jameson Williams is going to reward fantasy managers in a big
way.
Yeah, I think, I think the big, I mean, it's kind of weird because if you look at the target
share, almost everybody was a little bit higher than I had them projected.
I think it's going to be very difficult for, and this could go for Laporta too, if, if
it stays like it was, but 56% of the targets went to St.
Brown and Laporta.
And then another 23% go to Jamo.
And it was just that Gibbs didn't run quite as many routes and nobody else was involved.
Like you want to talk about a concentrated target share, the top three guys, not Jameer
Gibbs.
He wasn't one of the top three guys, the top three guys had like an 83%.
Target share.
Yeah.
And remember that, you know, the guy I said that really benefited the most from, from
the Portis injury in terms of targets last year was actually Jameer Gibbs.
You know, I obviously can make the case.
It was Jameo as well, but even the two games before the injury, Jameo was getting more
involved.
Jameer Gibbs, his targets really spiked, but he still had five catches on five targets.
One cat, one target for Vaki, one for Brock, right?
One for Isaac Tesla in week one.
I think the one thing, like when you look at a lot of the teams,
that we love.
the board we didn't get a khalif raymond or a kendrick bourne for the lions like we didn't
see isaac tesla okay and you know what as we go through these uh i'll throw out some names would
you trade this guy for that guy whatever um but uh let's go to your next guy here jamie your next
bylo is uh jaylen waddle who had three targets two cat two yards on one catch at the chiefs
and a bad drop you know so it's not all completely the the play calling but you can't
give this guy only three targets in a game where you're chasing points and you have a new play
caller it was just frustrating across the board to watch and the chiefs did a great job you know
there was a lot of rolled coverage in jaylen waddle's direction you know putting two guys
on him at at various times knowing that he was probably gonna get opportunities but still you
have to create some chances for a player that you invested pretty heavily in to get
some make some big plays and so i i think that will change against jacksonville i hope that
will change against jacksonville bonix was obviously a disaster again davis webb as we
talked about yesterday was not great in his debut so we'll see what changes from sean payton's
standpoint but everybody that has jaylen waddle right now is frustrated and panicking and so it
might be an opportunity to go get him if you have a running back or some other player that you might
be able to turn jaylen waddle into all right but you you were concerned about waddle going in and
this is exactly i didn't expect this no i was just concerned i was just concerned that you know what
we saw last year really from the two years of bonix was there was one player that kind of
hovered in the 120 target range and then three or four other guys that were kind of in that 90 plus
range uh only twice in the last two years do we have i'm sorry only twice do we have uh two guys
over 100 targets you know for the broncos despite the fact that they threw 600 plus passes last year
so this is just an easy chance that if you see jaylen waddle and and the fantasy managers who
have him or the fantasy manager league that has him
that has some questions about maybe another position and is loaded at receivers let's say
they had jaylen waddle and dj moore and parker washington you know some combination of you know
these guys um jaylen coker you know for example matthew golden you know like they feel pretty
good about the receiving court but they don't have a good running back room and vice versa for you
you know go try and get jaylen waddle while he's cheap okay so would you trade
chuba hubbard for jaylen waddle in a heartbeat oh yeah you would okay would you trade um
okay would you trade christian watson for jaylen waddle um i had them ranked so close to begin with
i probably wouldn't but you know that's one that i think that there's hopefully some more upside for
waddle heath let's get to your bylaws drake london and george pickens i think with and both of these
guys like probably seem a little bit obvious i've not downgraded their rest of season outlook at all
so if anybody has you want to go get those guys i think the drake london maybe you have a little bit
of a window just because michael pennix hasn't been cleared yet they've got their um starting
quarterback press conference this afternoon and it's scheduled to be cooper rush's press
conference we're probably getting one more week of cooper rush i don't know that things will be
any better with week two with cooper rush although the matchup's a lot easier um but i fully expect
as soon as they have a starting quarterback drake london and george pickens they're going to be
a top eight wide receiver and there should be basically no concern other than the fact that
cooper rush might start one more game the fakes in carolina this week and uh that's drake london
george pickens we talked about it on beyond the box score i mean just no reason not to
not to buy low on the cowboys passing game right we saw this almost this exact same game last week
i think he had three for 30 in week one oh last year last year in 2025 and it's
it was 12 straight weeks of at least a double digit fantasy performance he scored 17 points
in week two it's the commanders it's going to be awesome if you can do okay let's go to your
sell highs then you're selling high on remandre stevenson coming off a game with a lot of cat a
lot of touches basically uh 23 touches at seattle he gets pittsburgh at home this week maybe
travion henderson playing so remandre stevenson and dj moore that's an interesting one all right
go for it
186 percent snap share i believe for remandre stevenson in week one that won't happen
anymore the rest of the year except for maybe if they get to the playoffs and decide they hate
travion henderson again um no and i thought like it was a tough matchup seattle's really good so i
don't want to make too much about this but it looked a lot more like pre-2025 remandre stevenson
than 2025 remandre stevenson and i wouldn't be surprised if he's just not as explosive or good
as he was last year
and that gives henderson a little window to get more touches they desperately desperately need
speed on this offense especially with aj brown out and henderson's about the only guy that can
bring that okay so stevenson and you know dj moore we'll get to in a second let's talk about
who you would prefer to remandre stevenson um yeah what do you like who are some guys that maybe
who would be looking to sell stevenson for well i mean it's not generally
one-to-one running back trades but i think i had him in around rb22 um in the draft season or 23 and
and he didn't go up any for that i think bucky irving was a guy that was right in his range
strongly prefer bucky irving brie soul like if you could get remandre plus something um for him
jeremiah love okay yeah uh
yeah maybe you make a package deal get one of these really good by lows maybe turn remandre
and something into drake london or george pickens something like that uh dj moore had five catches
100 yards and a touchdown maybe slightly fluky with the touchdown uh eight targets at houston
in his first game as a bill and now you're saying sell high on dj moore yeah i just i think that
we're probably going to see a higher run split in most games than we did against the texans i think
under on dj moore averaging 20 yards per reception it was a awesome game for dalton concade and the
touchdown and khalil shakir didn't go anywhere he had six targets in this game also so i i think it's
at the very least a three-headed attack they they want to throw the ball to james cook more it might
be a four-headed attack and the touchdown was fluky it's interesting though i mean he gets
eight targets on 29 pass attempts in his first game
a touchdown against the houston texans he was only started in 61 of leagues dj moore
so how high are we selling here like you got to get what a second round value for him at this point
third round oh no i'd take a third round value okay okay you could probably turn dj more into
colston loveland if you have you know tight end maybe to throw in with it i mean i think you i
think a lot of people would sell loveland for dj more straight up based on some of the comments
i've seen about well i mean that's fair but you know i i d
i i i'm very encouraged by dj more you know i mean look the the touchdown was a little fluky and
and granted heath is right they're going to be a little bit more balanced but first game also with
a new coach slash the guy who maybe wanted to throw the ball a little bit more last year and
throw the ball in some different situations and you saw that so i think that's encouraging for
the entire bills offense okay and let's go to jamie's sell highs just to recap real quick here
jamie said buy low on jamison williams and jaylen waddle he said buy low on drake london and george
pickens he said sell high on armandre stevenson and dj more jamie's going to tell us who he wants
to sell high on but first we're going to take a break jamie's got two running backs two running
backs who were in the rounds probably four to five four to six range by the end of draft season here
and then we'll tell you about the players who really stood out in week one and we're going to
draft them higher if we were drafting today we're buying into their early season performance we'll
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Jamie says sell high on David Montgomery, who had 20 carries in week one, and Cam Scadaboo, who had 18 carries in
week one. Jamie, why would I sell high on guys who are getting me 18 and 20 carries?
Well, I mean, you're not giving them away. So these are the type of players I think you try and go get a Jalen Waddle or Drake London or George Pickens or some of these receivers that struggled if the other manager has this plethora of receivers on their team and can, you know, need and need some help at running back. This was what we hoped for David Montgomery was to find the end zone. We hope that he was going to lead the team in carries.
Jamie says sell high on David Montgomery, who had 20 carries in week one, and Cam Scadaboo, who had 20 carries in week one.
We didn't know what they would do with Najee and made him a healthy scratch. We didn't know what they would do with Tracy, and he fumbled again. And then now it's kind of Devin Singletary in this backup role and then playing on passing downs. The fact that Scadaboo had very minimal involvement in the passing game, certainly no stats in the passing game, is extremely discouraging. And so if you just look at it and say, oh, he scored against Dallas. He had 18 carries. Maybe you could turn that into a superstar again at another position or buying low on another running back with a package.
So like, for example, could you turn him into, if you still believe in Devon Achan, that's not a bad move to try and go make. You know, here, I'll give you Scadaboo and for Devon Achan, or maybe same thing with James Cook coming off a disappointing game as well. So these are the type of running backs I think you could turn into other quality players. And in the case of Scadaboo, we know that there's the injury concern as well. So while he's healthy and playing well and getting all this work, maybe flip him for something that could be incredible.
You know, you're not unlikely to be able to sell Scadaboo straight up for Devon Achan.
I think he's going to score some touchdowns in these games.
Listen, when he's out there and knowing that the workload, if this is what we're getting, is this, you're very encouraged.
Yeah.
But injury concerns still have to be there for him. And what happens when they're chasing points?
Yeah. Yeah. And the zero catches is definitely something that's a concern. Dan is hopeful that they'll get him more involved in the passing game because he was so good there.
But he was on pace.
He was on pace for 60 catches last year in his games with a normal snap share. And he had zero in week one and didn't play on third down even before Tracy was removed.
Okay. So David Montgomery. Who do you like better, by the way, Montgomery or Scadaboo rest of season?
Still Scadaboo, but it's close.
Yeah.
And if you guys were drafting today, would you take Jamison Williams first? Or who, Jamison Williams, Montgomery, Scadaboo, who would be your first pick?
Jamo.
Probably Scadaboo.
Okay.
Now let's talk about players we would draft higher if we were drafting today.
Oh, Jamie, you got a long list. You got six guys here. Who's the headliner?
Took all of them. Took all of them.
Who's the headliner for you?
For me personally, or just what I would recommend?
For you. Who's the guy who made the biggest impact on you in week one?
Probably Bucky. You know, I mean, I, you know, had the expectations for Caleb Williams. He exceeded them, but I thought he was going to be a top 10 quarterback.
Challenge would be top five guy. You know, Bucky, I was concerned about, you know, I didn't know what they were going to do with him in terms of goal line opportunities and passing down work.
We don't know the goal line stuff yet, but the fact that he was so good in the passing game and Kenneth game was so uninvolved, that's the most encouraging thing for me.
And so if, if, and, and you mentioned this, you know, just in the way that he looked like he looked awesome. And so that's, you know, something that you can say, okay, maybe he's back.
And maybe the fact that the Bengals run defense, which I think we'll find to be very good as the season goes on is going to stifle.
A lot of running backs. He was able to overcome it and still have a very solid game. So he's probably the one that if, you know, I, I got to a point where I was drafting him in the fourth round after watching him, like, okay, you want to take him around to fine.
Cool. He looks awesome. You know, worth it.
So the list here for Jamie is Caleb Williams, Bucky Irving, Kyle Menongai, Jalen Coker, Matthew Golden, and Isaiah Likely.
Yeah. Caleb, Bucky, Menongai, Jalen Coker, Matthew Golden, Isaiah.
Likely. I'm sure you could throw DeAndre Swift on that list.
I asked.
I was taking him in the third round, so I don't know how much I would have taken him.
Okay. I asked Jacob and Dan yesterday, who would you take right now?
I guess it was Monday.
DeAndre Swift or Devon A. Chan.
And they did not have the same answer.
One said A. Chan, one said Swift.
Who would you guys take?
A. Chan.
I mean, you know me, I was, I was not very fond of Devon A. Chan coming into the season.
I'd probably still take A. Chan just with the hope.
But he bounces back and plays better than he did in week one.
Yeah. And he had, what, four or five catches, Devon A. Chan.
He's on the Worry-O-Meter, so we'll talk about him.
He had four catches for 30 yards.
Okay. So, with Caleb, like, it was amazing.
And obviously, we know what Ben Johnson said about the scoring record and all that.
What do you guys think about Caleb being the number one quarterback in fantasy this year?
How realistic?
More realistic for the full season than from this point forward.
I think it's. I think it's realistic in the sense that they'll give him the chances.
You know, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson look really good, though.
So, it's hard to say he's going to be better than those two guys.
When you have Jalen Coker and Matthew Golden, right?
Let's say you have them on your roster.
Do you feel like, okay, I can go make a trade.
Like, I took this wide receiver in the fourth round.
I can turn him into a running back because I've got Jalen Coker and or Matthew Golden.
And I'm going to be able to score.
I'm going to start them most weeks and feel good about it.
I think there's two scenarios of trying to do that.
You're saying to keep Coker?
I'm saying, like, you keep them.
I'm not saying they're going to be as good as the player you're trading.
But you just feel like, all right, I stole Coker and or Matthew Golden.
These guys are going to be at worst number three receiver.
Like, I'm good.
Perfect example.
You've got DJ Moore.
And he's your wide receiver.
Like, you took him in round four.
And so, he's your wide receiver, too.
And you trade him for one of the round three running backs because you're going to start Coker or Golden all year.
Yeah, basically.
I kind of, when you were saying, I'm sorry, I was thinking you were going in a different direction with that.
Like, I would definitely try and, if you could, Coker, Golden, I'm trying to think of anybody else that fell in this range.
I don't think anybody's doing Devon Bailey.
But, like, could you turn that into?
Like, AJ Brown.
Because knowing that that manager doesn't have Brown for another six weeks.
Like, if you have a great roster and Coker can't crack your starting lineup, but you know by a fantasy playoff time, AJ Brown will.
Would you turn Coker into, who struggled this week at wide receiver in, like, the round five-ish range?
Devontae Adams.
Devontae Adams.
Yeah, I mean, again, like, if you're never playing Jalen Coker just because you have a loaded team and that's, you know, I may sound silly for saying this and you know how much I love Jalen Coker.
Like, he's not going to do this every week, but, you know, he averaged 14 PPR points per game in the final six games of the season, five games of the season, including the playoffs last year.
And so, he's going to be productive, I hope.
Like, yeah, if you could turn him into something that you think is better, you absolutely should be trying to do that.
Because this is maximizing the player's value while it's at its highest.
Let me ask you guys about Isaiah Likely.
and his route participation.
And if that bothers you at all,
let me just get the stat for you.
It was a lot better than his snap participation.
I believe his route participation was 67%
and his snap was in the 40s.
Yeah, like high 40s.
So I gave this stat on Beyond the Box score on Monday.
If you look at the top eight tight ends per game last year,
McBride, Kittle, Kraft, Bowers, Pitts, Goddard,
Laporta, Harold Fannin,
all of them had a route participation rate
of at least 75% when they were playing,
except for Fannin, who was 71%,
and he was tight end eight per game.
Likely was like 67%.
So was Dalton Kincaid, 68%.
It's only one game,
but based on last year,
you wouldn't have been a tight end.
None of the top eight tight ends
had route participation rates that low.
So is this a concern?
Because Likely had like a 35% target per route run rate
in week one,
which obviously is not going to continue.
I don't think anyway.
Well, how high are we thinking Isaiah Likely should rank?
I mean, honestly, okay.
McBride, Bowers,
and I think we probably still say Loveland
is a top three tight end, right?
Yep.
Is it really unrealistic that Isaiah Likely
could finish ahead of every guy
who was drafted ahead of him at tight end?
Sounds more unlikely
if he's going to have a 67% route share.
Well, there you go.
I don't think it's unrealistic at all.
Right.
Like that,
that group could finish in any order.
And I mean, I guess the top.
I know, you know,
Dave and I kept using the same stat.
Like he had a very good track record
and a small sample size
of when he had six targets or more
of what he produced in his career.
It's like nine times, you know,
but he averaged over 12 PPR points per game
in those nine games.
So can he continue to be a focal point in the offense?
And again, don't expect what he did in week one,
but can he give you four
for 60 on a weekly basis
and then the occasional touchdown?
So he finishes with eight or nine touchdowns.
Like that's, I think, on the table.
Five for 60, you know,
whatever you think he's going to average
from a, you know,
yards per catch standpoint.
It's just, you know,
Jackson Dart looked great.
The offensive line looked great.
You know, they played a Dallas defense
that obviously got banged up
throughout the course of the game,
but may have been overrated going into it
based on the moves that they made.
And so now you're seeing,
you talked about the schedule for them.
It might even be better,
for the passing game.
And so here's this guy
that we've been just waiting to see featured.
And hey, he looked great.
He did.
So it's hard to give up.
And I had actually,
somebody asked me this morning
in a 10 team league,
they don't have a flex,
which I hate,
and start three receivers.
Should he drop Alec Pierce for Isaiah?
Likely he's the Colston Loveland manager.
And I said,
I probably would just keep like,
keep Pierce because his depth
at receiver is pretty bad.
So as a player,
I'd much rather have Isaiah likely,
but he can't play him.
So like you got to make some tough calls.
I think it's in certain situations,
but I'm so excited about Isaiah.
Likely after seeing what he did,
we have a lot of these,
but the giants and the chiefs might be the two biggest,
like going from the Cowboys to the Rams,
going from the Broncos to the Colts.
Like they're just all almost not even playing
the same game.
Yeah,
right.
Exactly.
I mean,
the giants did this against the Cowboys and,
but I would think Isaiah likely is going to earn more of a,
of a route share going forward.
They,
they need,
he needs to be on the field.
Um,
and,
but I did,
I just think it was interesting that with Dalton Kincaid's
big plays,
which you just can't expect.
And with Isaiah likely is 35,
34,
35% target per out run rate,
which you just can't expect.
If you want to turn those guys into Colston Loveland,
I'm,
I mean,
if,
if a hundred fantasy,
managers offered Isaiah likely for Colson Loveland,
I think 25% of them would get accepted.
You know,
that's how,
that's how fantasy managers work.
So I know you,
some of you are sitting at home going,
Oh,
there's no way you could do that or whatever,
but no,
there is,
I see these trades all the time.
And personally,
I would do it.
Maybe some of you wouldn't even do it.
Maybe you're worried about Loveland.
Personally,
I would trade either of those guys for Loveland.
I assume you guys,
you're saying you would offer likely to the Loveland manager
straight up.
Yeah.
To get Loveland.
Yeah.
I think more than 25%.
Yeah.
I think so too.
Actually,
I was just saying that cause I didn't want to,
especially if somebody lost in week one,
Heath,
the guys that you're excited about,
um,
that,
that you're,
you're ranking higher are the chiefs backfield Walker and
Emmett Johnson.
Yeah.
I think,
I mean,
Walker probably should have been in round one.
Jamie was,
uh,
was the highest on him.
So good job on that.
And Emmett Johnson,
I touted Mike Washington a lot as being kind of ignored in
the handcuff range,
um,
early in draft season.
And Emmett Johnson,
should have been right there next to him in round 10 or
around 11.
He looked very good also.
And if Walker misses time,
he's going to be somebody we rank as a must start running
back.
Let's get into Wednesday night or Thursday.
Let's get,
I'm so confused.
It's the quickest game preview in the history of game
previews.
Yeah.
Start everyone.
Right.
This is a,
this should be great,
but,
um,
I think more questions with,
uh,
no,
I mean,
there's some questions,
right?
Like who'd you start in Jamis?
Oh man,
you can't hit Dave with the game of the week.
I know.
Well,
not just that,
but I,
I need someone to do the na na na na's here.
I guess I'll do it myself.
All right.
Thursday night football.
Na na na na na na.
Nah.
All right.
Sorry.
It's Dave's thing.
You can't steal it.
I could do it with,
I could do it instead.
I don't think you guys can do it.
I think he'd let me do it.
Um,
stat of the game for Detroit to Buffalo,
because there aren't a lot of tough calls in this game,
but Dalton Schultz had eight targets against Buffalo in week
one.
And,
but remember Buffalo,
Buffalo,
was number one against tight ends last year.
No tight end had more than six targets against the bills in
2025.
That's amazing.
And already in one game,
we have more than that.
And also I,
I remember watching bills tape last year,
how they defended tight ends.
They were obsessed with taking away short area targets,
not just for tight ends,
but for all positions,
they gave up like the second fewest completions per game of
targets of zero to five air yards.
Well,
that was about six per game in week one.
They gave up eight of those,
which was about middle of the pack.
So something to keep an eye,
on I think we could still consider them a tough matchup against tight
ends,
but you know,
I'm not sure it's different coordinator,
different scheme maybe.
And they didn't seem as obsessed with taking away the short stuff,
which is generally where the tight ends live.
So,
uh,
Sam Laporta coming off a kind of a disappointing game facing the
Buffalo bills.
You know,
I think it's a legitimate question about starting or sitting him.
How do we feel about Laporta?
Start him.
I would start him also just,
but just expect the,
the potential for another bad game.
And then this is a great by low candidate if he does.
Okay.
Jared golf or Drake may golf.
Yeah.
The Drake may rankings are very different.
Heath is like fine with it.
And,
um,
Jamie and Dave last I checked anyway,
are sitting Drake.
May.
Yeah.
Mike has dismayed.
May.
Hasn't had a great game in a while.
That's that's true.
I look forward to talking about that one here.
So how about Jared golf?
Or Matthew Stafford against the giants?
Uh,
I go back and forth with these two,
but this has the highest projected total of the week.
So I'll take off.
I think Stafford is the other guy that,
uh,
I'm way higher than everybody else on.
So I'll say Stafford.
Okay.
Jared golf or Trevor Lawrence at the Broncos.
I love Trevor Lawrence this week.
Uh,
I've got golf higher.
Not a lot of agreement here.
All right.
Start to be a game.
Start.
I'm on Ross St.
Brown.
Jamie,
the funny thing about that,
all those disagreements is Jamie and I have Jared golf ranked in the exact
same spot.
That is funny.
Which is where a 12 or 13,
13,
right there.
Okay.
Um,
yeah,
he's 13th for you guys.
He's 11th for Dave.
I mean,
I think he could score a 35 point.
Like this is going to be a shootout,
right?
He could be amazing this week,
but quarterbacks deep.
So wide receiver Jamison Williams here,
Jamie,
how do we feel about him?
Is he,
is he an easy start this week?
Yeah,
totally.
I think you go right back to him with the hope that if the bills do what the
bills do,
which is,
you know,
make things tough on tight ends,
we get another seven plus targets for Jamo.
And I think he'll deliver,
you know,
hopefully it's not cutting your hair and you lose all your powers.
Um,
but I'm still very excited about Jamison Williams after what I saw in week
one.
Okay.
He's,
he's around 24th for everyone.
Like there's nobody on by.
So just because a guy's not ranked in the top 15 doesn't mean you're,
you shouldn't start him or whatever.
And would you start,
I started him over Drake London,
for example,
if Cooper rushes the start.
Yeah.
I mean,
I'd start Isaac Tesla over.
No,
would you start,
um,
Jamison Williams or Jamison Williams or cam Scadaboo at the Rams?
I would start Jamison Williams of VPR.
If you had this luxury and could think about sitting Travis HN at the
Ravens,
Travis HN,
would you start Jamo or HN,
Travis HN?
HN.
I would start HN.
I'd just keep an eye on Camara status.
That'd make me a little bit more nervous about it.
Yeah.
What's his name?
CJ Donaldson was their third down back for the saints.
He's kind of,
I think he just played the Camara snaps.
He,
I hope so.
Um,
played a lot of snaps,
but he,
he,
he and HN split the third down.
So we'll talk about him and worryometer.
Okay.
Laporta.
I don't know.
It's funny when a lot of people have like two tight ends,
but who's the best tight end in this game?
I mean,
one of them is a port.
Who's the best tight end in this game?
Um,
LaPorta.
LaPorta.
Okay.
LaPorta or Likely?
Likely.
LaPorta.
LaPorta or Loveland?
Loveland.
Loveland.
Start Josh Allen.
Start James Cook.
DJ Moore or Jamison Williams?
DJ Moore.
Oh, yeah.
Is DJ Moore just a must start this week?
Absolutely.
Yeah.
Top 15 receiver.
This is the kind of week you want DJ Moore.
54 and a half point total.
In fact, Heath, it's a little risky.
You want to sell high on the guy, but maybe wait a week.
You could wait a week.
Okay.
How about that?
You might get more with somebody looking at the Detroit game.
That's true.
Right in front of them.
How about Khalil Shakir?
Start or sit?
Borderline starter in three receiver leagues.
Yeah.
More of a flex for me, but that's kind of the same thing.
Yeah.
Let's see if we have any questions from the chat.
And by the way, where is, let's see.
Shakir is ranked.
Shakir.
Why can't, what is happening here?
I can't find Khalil Shakir.
He's not in our top 48 consensus.
I think I have a 47th.
So Dave must be low on him, man.
So starting a guy like Josh Downs or, or Wanda Robinson or, you know,
Carnell Tate, Jordan Addison over Khalil Shakir.
You do that, or you just want all the pieces of this game that you can get.
I mean, I think there's pros and cons for all the guys that you mentioned.
Uh, it's not like Shakir is coming off a huge game.
He had nine PPR points, you know?
So yeah, there, there's, there's plenty of chances here.
You got to consider him third best in the pecking order.
Right.
And as Heath alluded to, you know, if we get more from James Cook,
he could be fourth best.
Well, he didn't have the same amount of targets as, uh,
no, no, he, he, he had a great involvement, but it's still,
we know what Khalil Shakir's career has been.
And that was at times when he was the best receiver for the bill.
So I just don't think it's an automatic, Hey,
I'm playing him over some of these other guys.
And like you said,
that even includes Josh Downs coming off a disappointing game,
Wanda Robinson, just being on a terrible team.
You know, I, there, there was a lot of cases, you know,
just based on writing the waiver where I call them,
those guys were rostered in more leagues than, than Khalil Shakir.
So I don't know how many people were dropping them to pick up Shakir.
Okay.
And Shakir.
I start valet over Shakir.
All right.
Let's read some questions from the chat.
Goff or Herbert?
Goff.
Uh,
that's contingent on,
that's contingent on McConkie for me though.
Yeah.
I've got,
I've got Herbert like a half a point better,
but you know,
golf,
obviously the numbers were pretty bad.
Those two drops from Jamison Williams really hurt his numbers.
Those were huge plays.
Yeah.
Missing Sam Laporta in the end zone.
Didn't help either.
Didn't help you.
And you needed overtime for him to get there too.
Right.
Yeah.
That's one of the,
the biggest things looking at projections this week is like,
it wasn't just that they went to overtime.
Those two,
those teams were already running out a lot of plays in that game.
I think the saints ran 86.
Yeah.
Um,
you should probably chop all of their targets in third,
like take a third off.
The saints were really bad for about two and a half quarters and they hit a
deep shot to a lave and just got jumpstarted,
uh,
Laporta or Michael mayor.
If Bowers is out again,
Laporta,
Laporta,
Jamison Williams or Drake London said that earlier.
It was the quarterback.
Oh,
it's okay.
If it's rush,
you go JMO.
Let's say,
it's to a London golf or my homes.
Golf.
Ooh,
I think I have golf.
Like one spot ahead.
DJ more.
Jalen Coker.
More,
more DJ,
more cam.
Scataboo Malik neighbors,
Judkins or Debo.
Wow.
Okay.
More scataboo neighbors,
Judkins,
Debo,
Samuel half PPR.
Who are you going with?
They've been more.
Um,
who should I sit here?
Neighbors,
JMO,
Smith and Devante Smith,
Christian Watson,
JMO.
I would sit.
I think I have Watson behind JMO.
Yep.
Laporta or Kittle.
Laporta,
Laporta,
Kincaid or fan and Kincaid Kincaid Shakir or Sutton.
Oh,
wow.
Shakir.
E I probably need to change that to what?
Shakir,
Bowers or Kincaid.
If Bowers plays Bowers hours,
DJ more or Luther burden against Minnesota or,
uh,
I've got burden Tyler shuck or Jared golf,
golf,
golf.
Okay.
And Tyler shuck this week gets Baltimore,
which yeah.
Curious to see how the saints do.
Cause they really struggled for a while against the lions.
And the Ravens defense was great last week.
Sit the DSTs and sit down.
And get ready for the Worryometer.
That's coming up after this break on fantasy football today.
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I did forget to say one important thing about the Thursday night game.
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
I think it's great.
You have to do it by yourself.
Comment here from Jay Gotti.
That Jay Gotti, there should be no worrying after one week of football.
I've been knowing this for 20 years.
Learn something.
Judkins is the only person you need to be concerned about.
Oh, so there should be worrying after one week of football.
Just Judkins. Just Judkins.
Not Tony Pollard.
I mean, bad offense.
Yeah, there's reason to be worried.
You know, we need Worryometer theme music, I think.
We need some some theme music for Worryometer.
So you got to figure it out.
By the way, I've been I've been dying to.
Maybe Dan's version of Fantasy Cups.
Uh, OK.
No, play the real version.
I want to hear you. I was just killing time.
So I found it really hard.
But I don't know what I'm talking about, but I don't know what I'm talking about.
Worryometer. All right.
Zero to ten on the Worryometer from
Browns R.S. Colston Loveland.
Zero.
Zero.
I'll say two.
Yeah, me too.
No, no. OK, listen, we got this Worryometer graphic here.
Thomas, either we have to make an adjustment here.
This is goes up to one hundred.
So either Jamie and Heath have to give
numbers between one and one hundred or zero and one hundred.
OK, I'll give one hundred.
Multiply by ten. I would just say, yeah, well, let's do let's do one to one hundred.
Zero to one hundred.
Zero to one hundred now. Twenty one.
OK, that's beautiful.
It's very cool. All right.
If you want to see it, it's YouTube dot com slash fantasy football today.
All right. We're not worried about Loveland.
We broke it down on Beyond the Box score on the Monday episode.
I encourage you to listen to it.
I did point out same stuff, right?
Extremely high average route depth still hasn't had a screen pass in his entire
career, so doesn't get those layup points, little volatile here.
They're still a run heavy team.
But come on, like they're going to score points.
He's going to be.
Also, Sam's running the Worryometer.
So don't don't don't steal his thunder.
OK, sorry, Sam. Good job.
For those of you who don't know Sam Davis,
another one of our producers doing a great job.
Matt says Worryometer for Travis H.N. Travis ETN H.N.
Where are we?
Fifteen.
A thirty one.
Oh, all right.
I think let's go right in the middle.
Let's go to like twenty three.
I think that's in the middle.
Yeah. Good math. Thank you. Thank you. That was excellent.
bad movie the movie 23 no one remembers but it exists but yeah good good worryometer number here
what do you make of it jamie like travis achan played a lot more snaps than kendry miller but
they had the same amount of carries and the snaps were pretty even until the fourth quarter and
overtime i this was just a weird one what do you make of it i love the involvement in the passing
game i think it's hard to overlook that so the one thing that we said and heath was great at
pointing this out in philadelphia that kellen moore just doesn't usually involve his running
backs in the passing game and we saw that so is it a matter of he has someone that he trusts fully
in that regard along with that what happens when camara comes back because that's something that
he's been very good at throughout his career so that would be my biggest concern they're gonna
run the ball better they're gonna have better opportunities they were chasing points i think
the entire game i know it wasn't very much the entire game but they were chasing points so let's
see what happens against baltimore it's not going to be easy to run on them especially if they get
a little bit healthier in their defensive line so worried probably more so in non-ppr than half or
full but if you tell me that he's going to be this involved in the passing him to whatever split you
want it to be you know take the plays off take the the targets off he's still going to be a big
part of this offense and hopefully still big part of the passing game then i'm going to be okay with
it what's your take on it heath
i think jamie pretty much said it well it was um we think this is going to be an offense that
scores quite a few fantasy points travis achan is the lead running back but he's not the workhorse
and that probably makes him an rb2 but this one i think you could almost do this because it's one
week i felt the same way after the bylows and the cell highs also but like it's one week in a lot of
leagues you can't buy low on anybody and in some leagues you could buy low on everybody but i almost
think the worryometer needs to be like this is how worried i am this is how worried i will be
if next week looks the same i was taking a lot of hn i thought he was a third round pick
and i would have to say at this point if i were doing it again i'd probably be more cautious and
make him a fourth round pick i just was very surprised that kendry miller got as much work
as he did all right from john gill fan club worryometer on tony pollard 89
uh 74
oh so that's 81 right in the middle there 81 and a half okay we're in panic mode folks on tony
pollard it was bad they're gonna have to play you're gonna have to be more competitive philadelphia
this week probably not at the giants at baltimore houston at indianapolis it's just some games in
there but they could be more competitive but it sucked not much to say about tony pollard it looks
like last year but you know i can't help but think of the last five games where he was really good at
maybe don't drop him yet don't drop him he said what's he on the drop-o-meter tony pollard
two uh i was gonna say one okay yeah all right this is from uh i'm doing my part mostly worried
about cracklin oat bran down bad at the moment where what's our worryometer for cracklin oat
bran uh for me it's a zero because i have no interest in it exactly i'm worried that people
will never eat it i never even see it you know this was
dave's favorite cereal even he it was horrible it was like you you could you could tell me the
worst fantasy call dave has ever made yeah and i would say it doesn't even come in the same
stratosphere as saying that this is the best cereal of all time yeah it's really bad all
right here's one sean miller wants the worryometer for devon achan
26 34 if you were drafting again today where are you taking devon achan
round two let's give him a 30 on the worryometer right in the middle by the way there we go
round two after one so i was middle around two and i would have taken i would have put
jenty back ahead of him after seeing the way he looked because i was concerned with the ankle
injury um late round two take a lave over him yep i i didn't think it was any more concerning
for a chan than it was for omari and hampton
i guess the only thing that i'll say is i was worried about them being a good offense
to begin with and this was one of their likely winnable games and so what happens when they're
playing better teams like this it's gonna get a lot worse yeah it was disappointing against the
raiders so i said earlier in the show why is breeze hall inspiration for devon achan the 2023
breeze hall season is the best example of a game that's going to be a good game for them
running back on a terrible offense 30th and scoring uh they averaged 13.9 points per game
the new york jets that year and finishing he was number two overall on ppr number three and half
ppr per game he was fifth or sixth in half in full ppr breeze hall um he had 76 catches and he had i
think the garrett wilson was on garrett wilson had 168 targets like there's not going to be any of
that for the dolphins and breeze hall still had 87 targets and 76 catches he scored nine touchdowns
and he just had four and a half yards per carry hit enough production to be really good but in
week one that year breeze hall scored 14 and a half points in weeks two no no he scored 15.7 in
weeks two through four he scored a combined 14 and a half so looking at the game log for breeze
hall it might look like this for devon achan there were a lot of really bad games there were also a
lot of really good games for breeze so it wasn't consistent and when you're on a terrible offense
that i guess that maybe that happens
more often and i think like yes the raiders are probably one of the worst teams the dolphins are
going to play the raiders weren't complete pushovers against running backs last year i
think their front might be a little better than we expected so i'm not sure that was like a
a cakewalk matchup for a running back it was just supposed to be better for usage
all right this is for brandon here um worryometer on jayden reed
22 we didn't really i mean we didn't draft him to be a starter i didn't expect him to be a starter
so i'm having a hard time call up calibrating i guess i'll say 35 okay so that's 28 and a half i
think so uh yeah i mean with jayden reed like nothing changed he didn't play in two receiver
sets he played 71 of his snaps in the slot something changed matthew golden got a 30
target share
like being that part-time player of jayden reed if nobody's going to dominate targets
that could that could work out okay you could have a high target per outrun
rate when you come in and produce really efficiently um but if they have two wide
receivers that we want to start every week then i think and you've got jayden reed playing 60
percent of the snaps then he's probably going to be dropped eventually and tucker craft
still right and tucker craft yeah right they're gonna have to throw a lot now obviously just
because golden had 11 uh what do you have 13 targets 12 targets doesn't mean it's gonna happen
again right yeah jayden reed he didn't also doesn't have a carry so hopefully he'll get a
carry going forward all right a little bit worried about jayden reed just because matthew golden had
such a good game and yeah that could um jayden reed or debo samuel rest of season right now
debo i'll take digs over both yeah i'll take things over both also jayden reed or quentin johnson rest
of season
quentin johnson yeah i'll i'll stick with johnson for at least one more week all right speaking of
which pete farmer says justin herbert wereometer he's my qb1 and i'm terrified
uh i mean to me it's an unknown with the mcconkie injury like you lose mcconkie it's not great
so with mcconkie 15 without mcconkie 25 42 no it's just a difference of opinion
i think on herbert his numbers absolutely plummeted when mcconkie left that game
like about half as many yards per attempt went from about 10 to about five something like that
it was crazy so all right we'll keep an eye on that situation and then the last this is the most
interesting one i think is rishi rice from whizzy rishi rice on the worriometer um i do have a lot
to say about this but you guys go first
21
21
that's
21
that's in the not worried section so i think that sounds right and he is definitely somebody who
he may have the largest delta between what his current worriometer is
and what it will be if he's bad in week two okay but i'd i'd probably say 15
all right that's fair you guys are not worried about rishi rice i am a little more worried i
think people are feeling like he doesn't look like the same player uh and i would have to agree i
Also, just weird, a weird game for him.
Versus She-Rice, he had an 8.1 average,
8.1 yard average route depth.
He's usually around six.
This was the second high,
I think the second highest average route depth
of his career.
And he hasn't been anywhere near this
since the beginning of his rookie season.
He played less in the slot.
He had a 25% slot rate.
He's usually around 40%.
I don't really know why he was used differently,
but he was used differently and he shouldn't be used more downfield.
that's just not what he does.
It's,
you know,
it's hard to judge him necessarily on his routes,
which you want to see from Rishi rice is what he does after the catch.
And since he only had,
what do you have two targets in this game?
You couldn't really judge it.
He didn't,
you know,
that one touchdown.
I didn't think it was on him.
I thought it was pathetic defense,
but I know that there are some concerns out there for Rishi rice.
And I'm with you,
honestly.
Um,
cause I,
I thought he did not look like the same player,
but again,
kind of hard to tell because he wasn't running the same types of routes.
And he wasn't,
didn't have the chance to do anything after the catch.
Cause he only had two targets.
Last year he played the Broncos.
He had 9.8 PPR fantasy points on nine targets.
Nine targets.
He got two targets.
Yeah.
The very next.
Well,
I think what did the chiefs have this year?
They didn't have last year.
Yes.
And passionate homes.
And that should factor into only 27 pass attempts from a homes.
Um,
I went back.
I didn't play competitive football and maybe the Colts won't either,
but I,
the,
the,
and funny enough,
he played the Colts the very next week.
Um,
after he played the Broncos last year and scored 22 points.
So this defense,
this defense for the Colts doesn't look very good at all.
Um,
if he's bad against the Colts,
then we can start worrying.
I mean,
look,
he,
he had a very disjointed off season.
Again,
he looks sluggish in camp,
so that's not encouraging,
but at the same time,
you know,
is he working himself back into shape?
Hopefully that'll be the case.
And there's definitely a buy low window here.
You know,
if you still believe in,
in rice.
So,
you know,
to go back to the,
the Coker golden type of receivers,
could you turn one of those guys and maybe something else into,
into rice?
If you still believe in him,
I think that's an easy trade to make at this point.
So,
you know,
it's a matter of just where you're at on both sides of it.
You know,
if you have rice and you,
you know,
still believe in him.
And I know Adam,
you were excited about him this season.
I was.
I'm disappointed.
I'm nervous.
And this is what I don't really care that much about.
Pre-season.
This is a guy.
I wish I had been able to see a little bit in the pre-season and here's
fantasy points data.
You know,
they they've they're charting all this average separation score versus
target per route.
So he's asked.
He's asked.
Yeah.
So he has a very low ass in this,
which is average separation score and a very low target per out run rate.
If you're looking at this graphic,
if you're not looking at it,
it's a scatter plot of all these wide receivers.
And so for example,
Stefan digs was great.
He had a ton of separation,
and a high target per out run rate,
Mike Evans,
Garrett Wilson,
same thing.
Um,
Josh Downs.
If you see him on the bottom,
right,
Josh Downs had a ton of separation,
but a low target per out run rate.
And you could look at that and be like,
okay,
that's encouraging.
At least he was getting open.
Rishi rice has the absolute worst data of all of these wide receivers.
He had very low separation and an extremely low target per out run rate.
Um,
so,
and also another guy that I think you should be concerned about.
I went back and I watched every route of Chris Godwin.
And he definitely looked better than he did last year.
Definitely.
But he also didn't look like some dynamic,
great receiver.
Like he used to,
I think Godwin looked good enough where he just needs to get more targets.
He'll be fine.
I don't think he'll,
I'm don't think he's going to be as great as I thought he was,
but that could be a week one overreaction,
but Rishi rice.
I mean,
this is a very concerning chart here.
Why?
I've been looking differently.
I don't know.
Go ahead.
Yeah.
I've been looking.
Well,
I think they used them differently because Pat's are 10 and like,
they didn't need to,
he wasn't lined up on certain that my,
I mean,
it wasn't also a different coordinator.
I mean,
you know,
I know it's Andy Reed still,
but it's Eric B enemy also having a say in this.
And he likes his receivers to be more downfield than what we've seen in the
past.
And that's going to change a little bit.
That shouldn't be Rishi,
right?
Like where she rice is not,
it shouldn't be.
But when you're talking about getting your best players on the field and we
know worthy has some issues and Taekwon Thornton is,
you know,
a guy that I think everybody knows what he's doing when he's on the field.
Like you gotta do a little,
you gotta be a little bit more creative with,
with rice.
And it's certainly when you get him out of there,
when you're drawing two people,
it's going to open up things in the run game.
So this is going to be a discovery game,
you know,
as a rice manager or somebody who's interested in rice.
And so the run game was exceptional.
And I think that's the biggest takeaway is like,
if they're going to continue to do that,
yeah,
it's going to be a bad year for rice because he's not going to,
they're not going to have to throw as much and they're not going to have to
rely on him to be that guy.
So I don't know.
I'm not,
I'm not ready to give up on,
on rice yet.
I think this could,
could be a great second half of season type of player as he gets in better
shape because he looks out of shape.
So let me just,
since I'm the worried guy,
I would,
I would definitely try to trade like the Jalen Cokers and Matthew Goldens of
the world and something for rice.
But I don't think I would trade DJ more for Rishi rice.
I'm worried enough.
This doesn't have the targets.
That doesn't make you feel better about the targets concern.
And I've been searching and searching.
Jacob probably just remembers it from his,
his brain.
But I've,
from what I recall,
Rishi rice last year,
and even the year before his average separation score has been the worst of
the wide receiver ones and maybe the worst of the wide receiver twos.
Well,
now it's the worst of the wide receiver force.
Jacob,
what do you think of,
uh,
you said you wanted to talk about Rishi rice's ass.
I don't remember saying that putting words in your mouth.
Uh,
talk about rice's ass or case on booty.
Yeah,
honestly,
I'm sick of talking about rice.
We roll for rice in week one out of the slot.
A lot more than normal.
Um,
career low slot rate.
He also had a career high average route depth.
I don't know if y'all have talked about this.
Yeah,
I did.
Yeah.
I got a little Jacob Gibbs,
uh,
you know,
advanced metrics.
Let me ask you this.
Like what,
what level of receiver would you be trying to trade rice for?
That would be realistic.
Like if I had Rishi rice.
Yeah.
Like,
would you take Jameson Williams for rice right now?
No,
I just updated rest season rankings.
I have rice at 25 and Williams at 27.
I think that's the right range.
I want the Adams or,
or rice.
I have enough concerns about Adams.
I'd give rice another go,
but I guess Evans or rice Evans.
Oh,
uh,
rice still.
Okay.
So Evans has the rice roll from last year.
I'm trying not to overreact.
Jamie,
my gut reaction is Rishi rice could be one of the biggest busts in fantasy,
but I know that it's only one week and you can't overreact.
So it's,
it's worryometer.
It's not drop O meter.
It's not get rid of O meter,
but like some guys are going to be busts.
Rishi rice to me had,
had one of the most concerning week ones of anyone in,
in,
in the NFL.
So this is your new chief's take.
Have you rescinded your old chief's take,
or are you sticking with that one?
I mean,
I still think their passing game is garbage.
Like no,
the take was they are going to miss the playoffs and Andy Reed's going to be
forced into retirement.
Uh,
I'm,
uh,
uh,
I'll stick with it for one more week.
Jacob,
um,
dazzle us with some stats.
What do you,
what do you got for us?
Well,
yeah,
I don't know.
Maybe you've already stolen my stats.
Sorry.
I just got here.
So I caught,
I didn't have caught the rest of the show yet.
Um,
I do think it's interesting that Walker had four designed targets designed
or first three targets in week one.
So only Bijan Robinson,
Ashton Gentry,
Chase Brown,
and Travis Etienne had more at the running back position.
Um,
that was part of the reason I think some of us might've been a little bit
worried about rice is that not only is Walker just getting more and more
more backfield work,
um,
in terms of carries and previous backs in this offense.
Um,
but also that he could get some of the design targets and stuff like that.
That's gone to rice in the red zone.
Previously,
we do see him score on a designed red zone target in this game.
Um,
and then my other,
my other favorite Walker stat,
there's so many,
um,
he gained positive yards on all but one carry,
which is really impressive for somebody who people have criticized a lot
for being consistent and taking negative runs and stuff.
Um,
but my favorites,
that is that,
he had,
you might've already said this one,
173 yards rushing and was started with negative six yards before contact.
According to true media.
Amazing.
One of the worst tackling performances.
Yeah.
Yeah.
The Broncos were embarrassing.
Oh,
he's so good.
Um,
where are you at rest of season?
Like I,
I think there are only a couple of guys you could definitively say you'd
rather have than him.
Um,
I did,
I did a rest of season rankings update on beyond the box score and I put
four guys ahead of him,
but I think you could easily just put two.
Um,
yeah,
yeah.
Obviously the first two.
Yeah.
Gibbs,
Bijan still Taylor for me.
He's right there after that.
I mean,
he was,
he was there for me preseason.
So I think I had him seventh,
you know,
so I'm,
I'm extremely curt.
I've got him sixth.
Did you talk about the Dalton Kincaid usage in terms of like blocking more?
No.
Okay.
I think this is actually really relevant.
Like this makes it a lot more believable to me that Kincaid might break out this year.
Um,
so he was on the field for 85% of the Buffalo bills plays that involved two or
more tight ends in week one in healthy games last year,
that rate was 65%.
So 85% is a huge jump.
Um,
in 2025,
he was on the field for only 52% of design run plays with two or more tight
ends on the field.
And in week one,
he was out there for 13 of 15 of those plays where they're not hiding him.
They're letting him be out there for the big personnel plays when they're
running the ball.
And that allows him to,
be a full-time player.
Um,
the other thing that was relevant is they ran three tight ends on over 40% of
their plays last year.
The Rams led the league with a 31% rate.
The next highest rate was 13%.
So it was the Rams and no one else was even close.
And we saw like Ben Johnson start to do some of that down the stretch,
41% for Joe Brady and week one,
Joe Brady also cranked up the priest,
that motion,
a motion of the snap of the football play action,
right?
All the cheat code stuff that we like in terms of boosting efficiency.
Joe Brady has been doing that more and more every year.
He just doesn't really get the credit.
People act like he's a Josh Allen merchant, but it's like, I don't know.
He's a young guy who seems pretty smart and has now got a head coaching job
and just put up a ton of points against the freaking Houston Texans.
And you obviously have your downfield receivings now with Kincaid
where he had 30 yards on three different catches,
which is like the most ever for a tight end.
I think that that makes sense.
He's out there running routes as like the primary read a lot of the time
where it's like him, two tight ends, and Keon Coleman.
Yeah, I was going to say, Keon Coleman.
DJ Moore actually was out on the field more than Coleman in the 13 personnel,
but Coleman ran four routes out of that formation,
and DJ Moore only ran one.
All right, what else? Interesting.
I like to look at early in the season when we have like smallish sample sizes
on like rookies and players like that,
or in the case of Ladner, Conkey, and Zay Flowers, guys that got hurt,
but were off to just ridiculous starts,
like what their shares were when they were on the field.
And it was a 54% target share for Ladner.
And McCulkey, when he was on the field, 60% for Zay Flowers.
I was so impressed.
Obviously, that's not sustainable,
but I was so impressed with what Baltimore's offense was doing.
I think Declan Doyle freaking cooked in this game.
And obviously, it's the Colts' defense, so you don't want to overreact too much.
But all the levers he was pulling was working.
Lamar Jackson looked totally locked in, totally in control,
and they were getting whatever they want.
And so to me, like who's this year's Jason?
That looks like the clearest emulation of what Jason was doing.
In terms of succeeding with all the play action, the big personnel stuff,
a scary run game that was allowing him to just like have all this space down the field.
That's what Zay Flowers looked like in week one.
I don't want to just say that we're going to get that all year
because Zay Flowers obviously had a big week one last year,
and then it slowed down.
But him and Ladner, Conkey, man, they're just such good route runners.
They're such good movers.
And when you get them in space with a creative play designer,
like we saw in week one, they looked unstoppable.
So I'm really intrigued to see how that develops for those two going forward.
And hopefully their health holds on
because I think either of them could finish as wide receiver ones this year.
Yeah, hopefully for one of them.
So give me one more stat here.
Antonio Williams is a rookie that I really, really like for Washington.
And he's one of my favorite stashes.
And I don't know if, I mean, obviously he had the big red zone touchdown,
so maybe people are coming around on it, but he didn't play very much.
So I don't think he's been like a popular waiver wire ad.
But he had 44% of the targets when he was on the field.
He was really, really productive.
He was one of the highest graded receivers by PFF.
His average separation score, according to Fantasy Points of Data,
was the highest of any receiver in week one.
And this is a guy who shredded in college
and looked really, really good in the preseason.
And now he's doing it against pros, against the Eagles.
I mean, he was, it was only like five reps or something.
But every time he was matched up against Cooper Dejean,
he made him look so slow.
I think he's honestly like really underrated player.
And if you're just looking at like the rookie receivers,
him and Caleb Douglas for the Dolphins
were the two that impressed me the most.
Caleb Douglas, this isn't a stat,
but that guy was open on almost every single play.
What the heck?
I don't know if you've watched it.
Yeah, he was really good.
Yeah, so those are the two I had my eye on after week one.
Downfield too, not just like these easy little targets here.
He was getting open downfield for sure.
All right.
Jacob, do you have anything on DK Metcalf?
No, I need to dig into the Pittsburgh stuff more,
but I don't really want to.
Like I've watched like 12 games
and they're the one that I haven't got to.
I know I got a lot of looks.
I have something good on DK Metcalf if you want to see.
It's more, not necessarily like a stat.
What the heck is this?
So DK Metcalf just like, you know,
stares into your soul.
And Adam, sometimes when he's listening to us,
he's very, you know, tuned in.
Are those Adam's actual eyes?
It almost looks like AI, like we copy paste.
No, no, that's Adam.
But if you merge the two together,
it's really good.
This is what you get.
Oh my gosh.
That is weird.
That was good.
DK Metcalf did have the second most air yards.
Drop, more like drop K Metcalf.
He should have had a big game.
He should have had a big game, but didn't.
He and Jamison Williams are the two where it's like,
well, the usage is really good,
but the result was horrible.
So like, I don't know if I'm buying,
but this is going to keep happening.
If it does, maybe it's a breakout.
I don't know.
All right, Jacob, thank you very much for coming on.
Jamie.
Thanks, Jacob.
Thank you.
Adam, stare us into space.
We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.
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Podcast Summary
Key Points:
WeShare Health offers a nonprofit alternative to traditional insurance with members paying up to 60% less and accessing a nationwide PPO network.
Unlimited telehealth and broad physician access make it especially valuable for self-employed or job-transitioning individuals.
Year Up United’s Career Pathways program provides tuition-free, skills-first training for young adults without a bachelor’s degree, including weekly stipends, internships, and job placement support.
A standout fantasy football stat
Jameson Williams, despite two bad drops in week one, shows strong target volume and production potential, making him a compelling buy-low pick.
Jaylen Waddle and Drake London/George Pickens are identified as potential buy-lows due to inconsistent early performance or limited targets.
David Montgomery and Cam Scadaboo are flagged for sell-high due to low passing game involvement and injury concerns.
Fantasy managers are encouraged to trade for value, such as turning struggling running backs into high-upside players like Devon Achan or Jalen Coker.
Summary:
This transcript covers a diverse range of topics, from healthcare alternatives and career development to fantasy football strategy and consumer products. WeShare Health is presented as a cost-effective, accessible health insurance alternative with nationwide network access and unlimited telehealth, ideal for self-employed or job-hopping individuals. Year Up United’s Career Pathways program is highlighted as a transformative opportunity for young adults to gain skills, experience, and employment without a college degree.
In fantasy football, the discussion centers on player performance analytics, identifying buy-low and sell-high opportunities based on recent games—such as Jameson Williams’ strong target volume despite a poor stat line, and the potential for buyers to trade for value in players like Drake London or Jalen Waddle. , Isaiah Likely at 67%), and offensive instability. The show also features discussions on fantasy player rankings, matchup dynamics, and trade strategies, with managers advised to leverage early-season performance to maximize value.
Additionally, product promotions for Z Biotics, Whoop, Airbnb, and WhatNot are woven into the narrative, emphasizing wellness, travel income, and shopping. The Worry-O-Meter segment adds a personal touch, assessing player risk levels with specific concerns like Travis Etienne’s passing involvement or Tony Pollard’s performance. The overall message is one of strategic decision-making, value optimization, and opportunity recognition across personal finance, career planning, and fantasy sports.
FAQs
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Individuals without a bachelor's degree but with a high school diploma or GED are eligible to apply.
Fantasy managers are encouraged to buy low on players like Jamison Williams or Jaylen Waddle, especially if they had a poor first game, as they may have high target volume and strong production potential in future games.
These players showed high initial performance but may face a drop-off in usage or production, making them good trade options for other better-positioned players with more consistent performance.
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