Bust & Value Picks for 2026! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/20

Footclam before we start today's show it is important to let you know the megalobolt is Back and it's back in a big way over 20,000 players last year We're gonna break a record this year go to megalobolt.com And you can be a part of the biggest fantasy football league in existence have a chance to not only win a spot in the listener league for next year But you'll also have a chance to win an ultimate footclan subscription for life and you compete and the pride is really I think the key it's so mega. It's so mega head over there right now. We're gonna start the show megalobolt.com Welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host Andy Holloway Jason Moore and Mike Wright Oh Welcome in Thursday August 20th the fantasy footballers podcast Oh boy Another day another groin that's my motto another day another groin dude I was gonna make a joke it's show is how rated R this week. We made it to tomorrow But I forgot you forgot we had a pretty big one without just one day we just want one day without a groin injury Tyler Warren this time. Yeah, Tyler Warren. What would you tell him? I would tell him to stretch it out like a butterfly would do I've got a picture the wing honestly if you go to groinindex.com You can see the technique I am personally Presenting it so groinindex.com. You were briefly. Oh, look at that. We are on the show Nice little nice location for you like a butterfly, but you were gonna be a PT for a while, right? I thought about it for long while focusing on groin on solely growing a groin PT But another another day another injury not the only one we'll talk about the news. We got leader of the pack today. We got bus picks and Value picks on the show today. So if this thing goes over it goes over. I don't care. We'll just what we got oh dad's getting crazy We got fantasy football Teens we've got to our first day on a Thursday. Oh, I was out late. Why not? You know, just keep it going But you heard at the top the megalobull go compete right now megalobull.com if you want to participate there and don't forget you do We still have our UDK for life giveaway going on. We're gonna do a live stream next Monday answer tons of questions Drafts are coming up I'm gonna do I'm gonna do it Mike. I'm gonna do we're live on the show. I'm gonna be doing I'm gonna do something that I just brought up as an idea to you A minute ago Do you know? No, I don't now listen are my guys episode is next week. Oh, okay, I'm just halfway. Yeah Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, we have had some people like oh, I'm I'm drafting this weekend I don't have your my guys yet and I'm like, okay The episodes next week. Yeah, the season starts a week later this year. We have to thread the needle We don't want all of our nine guys going down with groin and you see how many people are getting hurt But some of you are drafting this weekend and I know you'd like to know them And here's what I'm gonna do for you our shows next week But I am going to go in to our ultimate draft kit and I'm gonna mark personally. He's gonna mark We always mark the my guys once we have the show. I'm a mark one my guy per person early for this weekend So if you have the ultimate draft kit, I'm gonna ask you two things one go in find the my guys They'll be marked by you know, we put them in the system to keep it keep don't tell anybody Don't blow it no spoilers. I feel like I might get more spoilers by asking you know, I mean you'll The footclan someone's gonna lashan McCoy this their integrity is people. That's why I'm only giving one away I could go up could put them all nine in there, but I'm not crazy But I'll do that if you're in the ultimate draft kit if you have it Josh says well there goes my side business Oh, you guys you were selling the data early if you knew how on the street in a trench coat if you knew how Have emailed me asking for the my guys early. You would be shocked. How much money have you made? I can't say check his live Venmo feed But shout out to next week's spitball, but yeah, if you if you we've had the question being asked because the timing people don't Necessarily know that the season starts a week later and anyways, I'll reveal we'll put three of them in there early and then we'll do the show next week But we're doing the giveaway we have a live stream coming up ultimate draft kit.com get prepared all of our rankings Right our projections our tier-based rankings hundred plus player profile videos a Brand new if you're just coming back to the show because I know a lot of comments lately. They're like oh your back wall is different and stuff like that If you're just coming back to the show we added a fully featured mock draft tool That will be going not it's on the mobile apps. It will be on web today nice It will be on the web today. So lots going on ultimate draft kit.com. Let's get the show started Leader of the pack presented by pet smart All right, we are looking once again at a complicated situation depth chart wise on a certain team We've covered a couple of teams over the last couple weeks today. We're looking to crown a leader of the pack and I'm not I'm not going to say that you know Some some of these teams maybe it's a stroll through the meadow and the flowers are blooming and this you we're going through the swaps here Yeah, sometimes it's like it. It's a pack of wolves Sometimes it's we may be like some coyotes or Harmon all right. I'm terrified of hyenas. Why in this case it is I'm terrified of the dolphins receivers It's the dolphins wide receivers Brooks calls it a packet Dolphus Brooks a pack of dolphins. It's a pod You idiot oh man, get box brooks all the money in the world's on a podcast. He doesn't know what a pot is can't find education. Give me a break So rich learn about seed life Well 60% of the dolphins salary this year is dedicated to players not on the team Did you know that that would be Tyree kale jalen waddle two wideouts that are not on the team But we'll be receiving a ton of money and counting against the cap incredibly $28 million Tyree cool count against the cap 23 million that water will But has to be a record where there is an absence. There is an opportunity, right? It is correct The most vacated target share an ariard share in the NFL any wide receiver room Entirely undrafted in fantasy Malik Washington Caleb Douglas chris bell jalen tolbert Okay, Greg dulcich these are the players that my not a my guy, but my this is like your dynasty team Excuse me. I have Cyrus Allen You know these are the Malik Wells has to throw the ball to these players And he will by rule By rule the dolphins have to play 17 games this year and so they will actually have offensive yardage And I know it can't all be Devon Achan So yeah, I mean that I did have Kyle look up once upon a time because I was like This team will be playing 60 minutes every single week and no one is drafted Is there a situation in the past where you see a bunch of wide receivers where we're just not sure We think it's a bad offense no one is drafted and you know what's the lowest they finish unfortunately it did seem like Historically there are there are plenty of examples where it turned out no one was worth drafting, but the question is Who is if someone's worth drafting here? Who would it be? And I know my answer clearly. What was anybody worth drafting for the Raiders last year? I mean it was a similar situation not a wide receiver like what are we doing here? Well, we have a we have a tight end listed in this group here. No, I read the wide receivers And I mentioned Greg Dolson. Oh, okay. Well, he doesn't count He we're looking at place died end Schmackertree know What are you talking about Greg Dolson? She plays tight. Yeah, yeah, we're talking about the wide receivers for the dolphins Why what is it? Okay? Who's the winner for you? For me, it's Caleb Douglas and it's funny because recently I've made a lot of Comments we all have about the fact that when you draft and I don't mean rookie year playing them I'm just saying at our fantasy football draft when you draft wide receivers who weren't drafted in the first round It is universally usually a bad pick the reason why is because even day two picks Average sub 50% snaps and that's really Genuinely what it comes down to is are you on the field week one if you're not on the field week one It's a bad draft pick you don't need to hold on to a rookie wide receiver who might develop later in the year You don't need that the first few weeks, but the reason why Caleb Douglas might break the mold I mean we we always talk about this right even if it's an 80% 80% of the time they bust that would mean 20% of the time it works out and The reason that I think Caleb Douglas is Maybe able to break the mold is because he will be on the field from week one I expect him to be playing pretty much 100% of the wide receiver snaps. He played every snap with Malik Willis in preseason. You've seen enough Malik Washington to know that he's just not that good. Not good enough to produce. Exactly. He's fine. He's a good NFL wide receiver. He should be on an NFL team. But for fantasy football, he is not good enough to go out there and average 70 yards of game and get a ton of touchdowns. Like I just, I think he's irrelevant for fantasy football personally. So I want to take the shot of the unknown of Caleb Douglas. A guy if he's he was a third round pick 75th overall. He's also been making a lot of noise like consistently the entire offseason. They've been saying Caleb Douglas is looked really good. I I'm with you. I think we've seen enough Malik Washington to feel a little bit capped on what the production can be. I like Malik Willis. I think he's a good quarterback. I think we've we've really heard no negative news about Malik Willis during this offseason. Can't say the same for two. A tongue out by low or kind of Murray. Like Malik has had some highlight plays in training camp. And I think Caleb Douglas is the highest upside opportunity and probably one where we have been here before. We completely as fantasy players dismissed Jalen Waddle. Now Waddle was a higher draft capital player. So it still happened though. People just didn't believe that the team can have a productive player. And to broaden the conversation. I know we like Greg Dolsich to be a target in the offense. But Greg Dolsich is not the he's not Brock Bowers. He's not Tramik Bride. He's not a player that you know, like is going to have 100 receptions on this team. Bowers and McBride can do that. Dolsich can be a higher value sleeper tight end. But at the end of the day, I think you can look at this team and say, wow, if they outperform what our expectations are on offense, who would be the beneficiary to me? I like Caleb Douglas. Yeah. His his his production profile was pretty good. His his physical attributes are great. I mean, this is a player who's six four two hundred and six pounds rainy four three nine 40, which is 91st percentile for way to justice speed score. He's been making plays. I mean, to be honest, I don't think it's going to be anybody. I think it will be known in the last round, you know, you're taking wild shots and I talked about this on the tips and tricks episode yesterday. Be willing to move on right off the bat. If he's out there for 62% of the snaps week one, get rid of them. But I do think there's a chance he's out there for 100% of wide receiver snaps from the Gica. I'm on the Malik Washington side. He's been the name that has popped up the most to me while I've been following the beat reporters. And it's been pretty positive news. Like generally speaking, I do agree, Jayla, they're like the process of, okay, he's a Malik was a six-round pick. We're going into year three. He's been a Malik to Malik things going on this year then. Hey, it doesn't hurt. No, it doesn't hurt. We can Malik wrote out my name. But it's like in Washington is, you know, as a rookie, 220 yards than last year, 317 yards. He was, I mean, buried on a depth chart with two superstars, two superstars. So I don't completely blame him for not being able to break into that rotation at all. Maybe, you know, we had last year, or I'm sorry, three years ago, Parker Washington, 132 yards, Parker Washington, year two, 390 yards. And now Parker Washington's the hotness. Like it's not impossible. It's, it's not probable at all. But I'll, I'll, I'll put my bet on the third year. Yeah, it was a tough decision for me between those two. And, and I will say the underdog in this situation, unfortunately, you know, the guy with maybe the most talent. Oh, yeah, and we're just with Chris Bell. Chris Bell is a, he was a French first-round pick. Torres ACL drops to the third round. But from a talent perspective, you know, right now their coaches say he's a long way away. Yeah, that would be next year. In a dynasty league, you know, after the draft, I had Chris Bell ranked ahead of Caleb Douglas. Because long term, I think he is the more talented player coming out of college in redrafts when you're at your draft right now. Chris Bells. Yeah, that's an. That's what we need right now. And I would say that he, it tolls for the, he's completely undraftable. Uh, that was leader of the pack presented by Petsmart. Visit your local Petsmart store or go to Petsmart.com today. Petsmart. Anything for pets. News and notes from around the league. Well, the cults tied in Tyler Warren suffered a groin injury. We tracked about it earlier. Yeah, that is the, I mean, not all groins are equal, Mike. No. Not this one's. I mean, those are big boys. Uh, right now they're saying there's no, just shut it down, please. Yeah, right now they're saying there's no worries for week one of the regular season. Um, and we had some weird reporting because it was like, add up or two to three weeks. And then it circled back to one week with a groin. Those are connected probably. I don't know. McKinley. Doctor is connected to the ab doctor. Right. I don't know. There's a machine that does that thing. They that finally good news in the news section. Yeah. McIleman is returning to practice on. Hey, all right. So don't pull a Jordan Tyson. He's coming back from a hamstrings. Stay on the field. Yeah, that tough always. I got a snake, man. The snake himself. I feel about that anymore. I just don't I don't it's just not. Okay. Okay. McIleman's press conference lives forever. I don't have any other big time news. Was there anything that like, I will say this, the commentary right now. Let's talk giants running back room for a second. Um, yeah, we we brought up the Naji Harris signing, uh, which, you know, was easier for me to dismiss without seeing any film of Naji Harris recovering from this injury. He looked good in the limited amount of film we had and Mike brought individual drills. Yeah, his cuts were nice. And Mike brought up the missed block by Tyrone Tracy Jr. Was significant. And then more news around New York came out that like dip, it's shed a different light on Tyrone Tracy when he missed the block, allowed their future. Basically, their franchise Jackson dark get blown up. And Naji, you mentioned being a very good past blocker, but the, the whole point of this that I want to bring up that we didn't discuss was. And I know you adjusted him down, but the possibility that really cams catabood doesn't maybe play as much as we think he will for the first half of this year in terms of volume. Yeah. And I would say these, these are not. I'm not setting off panic alarms by by any stretch, but you got to pay attention. This is a new variable. We know that, uh, it's being reported by Jordan Ranan, uh, that it's a veteran minimum deal. There's no guarantees. So this could be Naji's a camp body and then he gets cut and then okay, but they're, I mean, that's old. There's smoke when you have a guy coming off an injury, you have a player with one of the biggest past block widths. We have witnessed in the preseason. Oh, man, it was Bay. It's just it's something to pay attention to. All right. That'll do it for news. We will take a break and we've got some balls. I'll say the Naji's workout was set up even before the tracing on block. Yeah. I mean, that lends itself even more towards like just what at what involvement will scataboo have Tracy single tape and depth. I mean, you just, you need it. I want as a an absolute lover of camp scataboo's playstyle film history. Everything I want to be so in like coming into this offseason. It's like, he's probably going to be a my guy and I, I just have bad vibes there. I don't love. I'm not quick to pull the trigger right now. I think it might be a slow start to the story. Yeah, we're going to continue the conversation here because we get to talk about this team in a moment. My last point on it is again, I'm just trying to think out loud and not, I don't want to be an alarmist or panic, but it's like, we've seen this before. We've seen day three running backs come in and have success and fantasy football. We love these players and then someone knew comes in and they're going and it like, it doesn't make sense. What, you know, we just had, we had the Damien Pierce here where he comes in. He's pretty solid for fantasy football and you think well, he's got to be the guy moving to next year. Absolutely not. They just got rid of him. Well, it doesn't help that there's a change in that's what I'm saying. Like you have a like scat is not only a changed bus guy. Like, there's a turd that often's a coordinator. Yeah, well, but we can just move on because we're going to talk about this team. Okay. All right, we have individual picks for both the bust and value segments today. So lots to talk about, to debate, to discuss, and to, well, in the bust case, be fearful of let's get into it. Bus. Bus. All right, well, these guys are not guaranteed to fail. We have consensus busts in the ultimate draft kit, but we are kind of looking at situations. We think are high risk. Maybe look really good from the outside, but kind of buyer beware situations. And unfortunately, I know that this man. It's not agreed upon here. No, no, we have a difference of opinion. And it's not, it's not really different to the opinion at all about the player, the talent, the ability of them. It is a concern with the, I mean, you just, you love Camp Scataboo, but you have concerns about the, you know, situation, the vibes. Yeah, the vibes aren't great in New York, and that makes sense with Matt Nagy there. Yeah. And so my, my bus picked the one that I am not, like, if I took this player in the draft, I know it's a good value. And you can take the shot on the first couple of weeks. I don't think that's a problem. It's not like you're overpaying. But you might not get a starting quarterback out of it. My bus pick, unfortunately, regrettably, is Jackson Dart, Jason's fifth overall quarterback in four point passing touchdowns. I know people hate it. Well, the people want to see Jackson Dart and the New York Giants have success. And with Harbaugh's arrival, I thought it was on the way. When Greg Roman and Matt Nagy pulled up in the car behind the Uber, uh, someone needed an offense to fix. We're here in the Uber pool. When Cliff Kingsbury was the offensive coordinator. If you don't remember, Cliff Kingsbury basically, the, the report was, yeah, Cliff Kingsbury signing to be the offensive coordinator for the New York Giants. It was like, oh, baby. And then it was like, no, just kidding. That's one of my, so I don't like the vibes. But that's like, you know, it's Matt Nagy's history. Greg Roman and, and the changing office. I don't like that. But here, here's what I do not believe is compatible for Jackson Dart. I do not believe you can simultaneously run the way Jason wants him to run and play enough football to make you happy in fantasy. He had 10 games last year. He went to the medical tent in five of those 10 games. He has already gone to the medical tent in one game. You cannot be in a position where at any moment, your starting quarterback runs with such reckless abandoned, finishes runs with reckless abandon. And then in press conferences tells them that's just who I am. If you're not built like Cam Newton, I have concerns. Maybe it's got like a cappuccino machine in there or something. Uh, in, in, he loves the blue. In the middle of the blue. I think you either see a fundamental change in the amount that he runs, which is very, very possible. I think with these old heads as quarter as head coach and offensive coordinator, I think you could see a change in offensive philosophy that is concerning and is going to require Dart to do some things. We didn't get to see evidence of last year, which was be under center more often. Make the right read. Don't run the football. And so I think there's a lot of excitement. I understand that he represents high rushing upside. But I do believe that he will be hurt if he does what he's been doing. And I think Harbaugh is the kind of guy that's going to rain that in a little bit for the sake of his team. Having a quarterback that is healthy and, um, you know, it's a concern. If you look at last year, he was on fire to begin the season. First seven starts 23.3 fantasy points per game, 3.1 design runs per game. Let's go. Oh, wait. You got concussed. You come back. You have another five game span. All of a sudden you got 1.4 design runs per game. That's a big difference. You go down to 16.6 fantasy points. If I had to guess where he ends up this year, it's more in that range. It's 16 to 18 fantasy points of game. I don't think the upside is as high as Jason does because I think that there's something that's going to go wrong. And I won't get into just how horrible Matt Nagy is, but yes, I will. Um, Brian Dable, by the way, after he was fired, the offensive system changed. I love Brian Dable. I think it's one of the reasons I've been in on the titan's making a progression forward. Brian Dable was the key to some of what Jackson Dart was having success with. Matt naggy, man, he does not press the easy button in the modern NFL. Second lowest motion rate of any play call it. Third lowest play action dropback rate since 2021. So we're not going to pretend to run, right? Let's not do that. Let's not give an easy opportunity for your quarterback. Let's just do what no one else is doing anymore and put him in behind center. They ran a ton of no huddle last year. I think Dart was great with that. Dart was Dart's like metrics and stuff when they were going no huddle and hurrying up and you know, playing some street ball. His numbers were elite. He was pretty much one of the best in the league and no huddle and one of the worst in the league in not no huddle. And I will say this like you're going to here's the last. We are not not huddling. The last piece of the puzzle is kind of wild. And I'm going to paint the picture for you. You're going to start with some matchups that are okay. They're favored in three of their first six. They have the Rams in week two in LA. That's a tough one. But you're that's your acclimation to the new system. So how quickly does that happen? You go from week seven on I don't know if there's a worst schedule. It's a gauntlet. You're in Houston. You're in Philadelphia. You're in Seattle. You're in Detroit. The Detroit Detroit defense should be injured by that point in the year. I mean, you are favored. They are favored in two of their final. What is that? The rest of the season, the final 10 games from I said the first six. So the final 11 games. They're favored in two. They got to play Cleveland. They got to play Jacksonville. We got to play San Francisco. I don't know. I am concerned with the hype. I think it's gotten out of control because we want it to happen. There are players that we just want to work. I think Traveon's a guy we want. We all want to work. Yeah. I don't know if there's a better person in the NFL than Traveon Henderson. If you've listened to his interviews or a more dedicated player just stand up guy. We want the faces of the NFL to be the faces of the NFL. And I just don't know if it's going to be easy. The calling this a bust pick is very realistic, I think. I mean, the idea that Jackson, first of all, all the reports out of camp have been that the offensive sucked. That's like, everything has been like, they don't have it together. Even Matt Nagy came out and said, like, Jackson starts so talented, but he's really struggling. It's like, well, it's your fault, but no, I have like no doubt that Jackson Dart can bust and be terrible this year. I'm really in on Jackson Dart because I think should it work? He is, you know, if he's in the ninth round where I've seen him in plenty of drafts, should it work? He's one of only three quarterbacks in the league that I think can easily rush for over 700 yards. He's on 17-game pace of about 700 yards last year in his rookie season. It's him, Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson. That's it. You know, and if you look at finish your thought and then we have to hit the stupid break. Okay. All right. If you do look, I know it's like the injury risk is out there. And he's not built like Josh Allen, but you look at Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Jackson Dart. And you got 642 10 and Jayden Dales, 210 pounds, 6205 in Lamar Jackson, 622 23 for Jackson Dart. So I do think he can everybody can get injured. Lamar's been injured. Daniels has been injured. I am in on taking this shot. What was this height weight? 622 23 for Jackson Dart. So this is not bad. Did he seem that big? He didn't seem that, I mean, he didn't seem that big, but I don't know people's weight in person. I don't know. But I like the upside. I certainly could never. No one could argue that like he is as unguarant to eat as success as possible. I'm just afraid you can't draft him and start him and be guaranteed to have a starter. And then you got to figure it out, which maybe that's worth it in the night. In the ninth. I mean, I like him, but at the end of the year, it's very easy that this could be like, oh, yeah, he, he failed. I won't, I won't hit the breaking news button, but I will tell you that Sam LaPorta is now injured. Jason covered your ass. No, that's my dude. Sam LaPorta is out with a hip injury. My all time favorite player. Well, Gino. Well, my second all time. Dan Campbell says he's not sure of the injury. We'll go into the regular season. Man. So James, I'm not not growing. Do James and Williams. You guys, you guys don't. I know. Don't get me started on how much I wanted. Yeah. I'll let the people know. He's not a my guy. Because I just can't allow I would never do double lion same exact my guy. For example, well, yeah, yours works better. Kind of. I mean, the first I mean, he was the first half of the season last year was so bad that most people like moved on, but he finished pretty darn good. When LaPorta went down, when when LaPorta went down, he was unbelievable. And if LaPorta starts the season on the bench, this is an offense. You want pieces of I'm I find myself way more like Andy this year on on James and Williams. I want James and Williams on my finish. This is a top 10. Oh, yeah. Also. And you're like me, me first half. Yeah, I mean, he finishes the top 10, man. If the first half suck, that means that he's winning. I mean, it's just like the truth. It was the change of coaching. Yeah, I mean, it was when they did the offense, a coordinator change and LaPorta combined. But I think if you were someone that had drafted him, I mean, up through week eight, you had what to playable games. Sure. So yeah, you're definitely help people win. Yeah, they helped whoever's team they were on at the end of the year. Yes. That was like, like James Brown, like you felt like you took a giant L on a my guy last year because it was for the first six weeks. It was like, oh, man, what a loser. Well, I think he was an unbelievable. Yeah, help people that'll win. I didn't realize that I thought you moved off this bus pick. I did not know that you went for no, no, no. - I don't know, I very much, it's funny because-- - Let's make a trade on the show, then. - We might-- - I'm gonna go make an offer. - Yeah, go on, share your bust. - Okay, so this bust pick was in there for-- - Don't share your bust, but go on. - This pick was in here for a couple of weeks now, and then we got news that I think made everybody think I was going to change my bust. - I did. - You did, Andy did. The Kyle was giving me other options. I was like, "I wanted you to do it, dude." Well, he just thought I would, and I was like, "No, I don't want to change, I completely still believe this "and I'll explain my rationale here." My bust pick this year is Travis H. Ann Jr. Running back for the New Orleans Saints. - The artist formerly known as Travis H. - Yes, if you are, you know, we know from-- - My gosh, that's the comment I call him for now on. The artist formerly known as Travis ETN. - There you go. - Full time, there you go. - He wants to be H.A. - Yeah, so if you are coming back to the fantasy football and you're like, "Why are you saying his name wrong?" - That's the French Creole pronunciation that he prefers. The commentators in the Hall of Fame game basically said, "We're gonna call him that this year." So as the season goes on, you'll hear Travis H.ann Jr. It stinks only because there's an H.Anne. Like if it was someone else that was unique, you'd be like, anyways. - So let me read you a Slack channel message that we sent last night. I said, we were like, "Mike's like, "Hey, are you still sticking "with Travis H.ann Jr.'s or bust?" And I said, "I wonder if he'll change that." And then you got tagged and you said, "Yes, I am." So I was saying yes to Mike's, the first question of, "Are you still sticking with him?" "Yes, I am." So I see how you see it both ways, but here's the thing about the artist formerly known as Travis ETN. There are three reasons why I don't like him as a pick where he's going right now. One is the change in the offensive expectation, right? He was on the Jags last year, which was a top offense and he's switching to the saints, which hopefully can be a better offense, but they're obviously a much worse offense last year than they were. And as far as the offensive line, it's a downgrade on the offensive line. Second is the way he scored fantasy points last year. And then there are some specifics on the tips and tricks we brought up yesterday that you brought up, Mike, that really speak against Travis ETN Shane this year, yeah. Okay, so here's a thing. The first point, oh, you made me a live offer. No, I don't worry about it, do your talking. Okay, how he scored last year, he's not ever been a very efficient back. I don't think he's been okay for fantasy. He scored a lot of touchdowns, but he hasn't really been a very efficient back. And inside the red zone, he was down right horrific. Inside the 10 yard line and inside the five yard line last year, 10 zone attempts, which these are money in fantasy. He had 26 carries inside the 10 that turned into four touchdowns, a 15% rate. That is abysmal. He had 12 of those 26 inside the five and those turned into two touchdowns. The only running backs last year that were worse in those metrics were weirdly safe, from Barclay and Woody Marks. He was not good. Where his touchdowns came from were receiving touchdowns. He had six receiving touchdowns and yet he only caught 36 passes. How rare is that? He joined 2014 Amad Barad draw in 2018 cream hunt as the only running backs over the last 25 years with six or more touchdowns on less than 40 receptions. 43% of his fantasy points came from those touchdowns that is not repeatable. Five of those receiving touchdowns were inside the red zone. I mean, how rare is that? Well, he had zero receiving touchdowns inside the red zone for his entire career. So now you've got a guy who kind of was propped up from rare touchdowns that aren't very repeatable, wasn't efficient on the ground. He's changing teams to a worse team. And my biggest argument against him for most of this offseason has been, I'm sorry, but Alvin Camero is gonna be involved. But Jason, Jason, he's Alvin Camero's injured. Yeah, he is. At most, Alvin Camero at this point, the timeline says he could be ready week one. But let's say he misses the first two weeks of the season, okay. He's not back till week three. When he gets back, he will be eating into the past catching work of Travis H and Junior, which is where he made his fantasy points last year. Those first two weeks that he might be alone, you want to be on the road against the Detroit Lions who have, when they're healthy, one of the best run defenses in the league. Or do you want to be on the road against the Baltimore Ravens? Both games, you are more than touchdown underdogs. That's not good for running. For Mayor is gonna be eating Jello at the retirement home at week two. Yeah, I mean, I'm just saying week by the time you get to any good schedule. So early underdogs, that was a tip and trick from Mike yesterday. When you're an early underdog on a bad team, it doesn't usually work for fantasy. I think that how he scored fantasy points was not great. So there's no reason for him to be on your team. I sent you a trade. Well, I think he's gonna be great. So we'll see. We'll see you at the boundary. No, the rubber meets the road right here. Look, I think that you can make, I don't think you can make an argument that anything you said was incorrect. I think the only argument that I have is the same sort of argument I feel towards Kenneth Walker. The market and the teams that I trust, the play collar that I love, they put their money where their mouth was. That's four year, $52 million deal. Ken Walker has a ton of crappy efficiency metrics in different areas. This dude dances behind the line of scrimmage and gets caught back there. I just love the fact that they decided to make him their franchise identity at running back. So I'm in on that. I do love that. And I love Kellin Moore offenses, especially for quarterbacks and wide receivers. One of the weird things about Kellin Moore's offense though, they have routinely ranked among the bottom of running back target shares over the last four years. 26th, 26th, 20th and 27th. So it's like it, and honestly, that's smart. That's wise. Throwing to a running back is less efficient than throwing to a wide receiver or a tight end just statistically speaking. Have a fast pace of play. Like if I was an offensive coordinator, have a fast pace play, throw to your wide receivers as much as you can. That's how I play and that's how Kellin Moore plays. But yeah, I do love the investment. And I will say there is another metric of a certain barometer of money given to running backs in the off season where if you are over it, you usually work in and the artist formerly known as Travis ETN is over that mark. So you've got both sides of it. I'm more worthy and I will look at the trade offer. It means that you're convicted about it. If Camera goes out and you still feel like, I mean, I got a trade offer from you yesterday. I love it. - Was it good? I don't remember. - Oh, you don't remember the offer? - Oh, no, that was good. I tried, why didn't you accept it? That was for this dude. - Yeah, but it wasn't a good offer. - It was too. - I ran like five mock trash to you. The guy, you hate him. - The guy, okay. I hate him if I don't take your crappy offer. All right, Chuba Hubbard, Mike. That's your boss. - Sure, oh my gosh. - He says this is a crappy offer. - He says I've made a crappy offer. His offer was the 301 in our league for Travis ETN. 301 in a three keeper league. That's basically the sixth rounder. A sixth rounder for you. - He's going in the fourth, so no. I will decline. - I have run a tremendous amount of, so Bayshall Tutan goes around. I mean, is Bayshall Tutan versus Travis H. Ann? - Bayshall Tutan will not be there at the real one. - It's while Jerry and Price will be. - No, he won't. - I know what you're saying, but I know our league and how we, I mean, you know how we draft. Bayshall Tutan and the running backs go up in our league of record. - I have taken, you love H. Ann. - I've taken every opportunity that has ever been presented in front of me to either dump on or bet against Travis H. Ann Jr., to the point of just a truly horrific outcome last year. If you recall, there were co-starters on the Jacksonville Jaguars last year, and we were all taken sides. And then they traded one of the guys to be a backup in Philadelphia. - Yeah, I forgot. - And then it really worked out for Travis, but I'm with Andy of the volume. I think the volume will make him okay. And I like the Saints offense, so I don't think that he's a special player at the running back position, but I think he will end up being okay. My bus pick here currently running back 28, going in the seventh round. So this isn't like a huge investment, but I'm just putting the foot down and putting the flag in the ground. It's Chuba Hubbard. I want absolutely nothing to do with him. He is a full fade for me at this point with what's going on in Carolina. You know, recalling last year, weeks one through four, he was getting in a lead work percentage. He was at 29, the work percentage, which is, you know, targets and attempts. He was at 29%. 30% is a lead. So like, it was, the volume was completely there. In that time period, I will say, he did not force a single mistackle as a runner. So this is a guy that's just volumeing his way to fantasy value. Then he loses his job to Rico Dattle. He had no runs of 15 or more yards last year. Like his efficiency metrics are the red. He had one total carry inside the five because they just, they didn't trust him. They wanted that job went to Rico Dattle. And you know, we've also seen Jonathan Brooks. I struggle with Brooks's ADP, what is going on 'Cause he is. right next to Chuba Hubbard in ADP. I've seen leagues where Brooks gets drafted in front of Hubbard. But it's just pointing out that like Chuba's at the tail end of the dead zone for running backs, what did J.U. talked about? Like you're at the end, man. This is the deadest of the dead zone. I want nothing to do with that situation. And if you remember somehow the Panthers, despite being under 500, they were first place. So they get a first place schedule. Warren Sharp has them ranked as the third hardest schedule for 2026. And to piggyback on my tip yesterday of teams that start as dogs. Well, three of the first four games, they are underdogs. They're underdogs on the road against Atlanta. That's out down bad. The Carolina Panthers are at this moment. So people are drafting Chuba. And I just want absolutely nothing to do with it. Yeah, we had the Jonathan Brooks conversations earlier too. And we have all of our bus picks, our consensus bus picks, in the UDK ultimate draft kit.com, if you want to get on in on that before you're draft, we'll take a break and we'll come back with value picks. (upbeat music) Values. All right, value picks. I'm gonna take a layup here. I think genuinely all three of our value picks are fan-freaking-tastic. I think they're layups and they're mispriced players in fantasy football. I really do. It's Chris Godwin. Chris Godwin for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Abuka, whether he's there or not, I don't like that he's dealing with the toe injury. That's gonna add to the equation in terms of like, Chris Godwin is the exact kind of name that never moves up, no matter how much you talk about him, has a history of productivity will be sneaky good from a PPR perspective. I mean, we talk about Keenan Allen leading the charges and receptions at 34 years old last year. Chris Godwin has a connection with Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield is back and is healthy. You have a lot of question marks with Hearst McMillan, Tess Johnson. None of those guys profiles high volume. What's your face here, Jim? But, but Ameca Abuka being hurt doesn't really even bother me. I like Godwin. Godwin on ESPN, he's in the 13th round. 1304 in full PPR. What are we doing? Yeah, and to me, it's just, it's a layup situation. He was not one of the names I mentioned in the 10 oldest players, right? I mean, you have a close, he feels older. He's 30 years old. And yet he signed a three year extension last March. I mean, this team has him as part of the plans. You know, he dealt with injuries. Injuries are going to be a concern for players that get older and especially at wide receivers, but he's not in that group yet. When he came back, you had some high target finishes. To me, this is just like most of the time I say, you want to take high upside shots at the back of your draft. This is one of those stabilizer players that I think you can start any week you need to. Might start more often than you think and has been a standout at OTA. So there's really been no concerns around Godwin, but not enough publicity. So to me, my value pick is Chris Godwin. - I'm in. I think Chris Godwin is a solid pick for, there's a, I think he has a lot going for him. And you can even say, Abuka is the, we get to the end of the year. Abuka's clearly the number one. Okay, fine. Like Baker Mayfield can give you enough production that you have two contributors in the receiving game. Like, and of the other players, yeah, your chips have to go to Chris Godwin. - Godwin does not need Abuka to be injured to be good. - At all, he's been good with Mike Evans on the field and Mike Evans is gone. I mean, it's where he's going right now. Like, I totally understand when you're older, you don't have the upside of being like, oh, this guy could be a top seven wide receiver in fantasy. But like, he could, here's what he could be. An absolute every single week must start wide receiver two type of player. He could, and that is so valuable in fantasy and to be basically a free square ADP wise, I can't believe that ESPN ADP. 13th round. - Yeah, I mean, I think it's just one of those, you, people are going to take digs ahead of him in drafts. People are going to take Kenan Allen ahead of him in some drafts. That's going to happen. - Yeah. - Because Chris Godwin is just quietly quietly there. - He was injured last year. And I think that's a big part of it. People just think he's injured. - And they're tired of it. - But genuinely, it is two years in a row that he played seven and a half games. - Camp reports have said not just that he's been good, but like his explosions back. And he's just really close. - Even if you get half a year with Chris Godwin for that price, I don't care. - That's fine. - My value is so weirdly underpriced. If I describe the player before telling you the player, it makes no sense. What if I had a third year quarterback who has literally scored the fourth most fantasy points through two years ever? Last year, he led the league in passing attempts. And this year, he's got all of his water sheavers back, including a high drafted water sheaver two last year who's been making buzz. But then they trade for a star wide receiver to add to the court. And his first year was the quarterback six. His second, I'm sorry, the quarterback seven, the second year, he was quarterback six. And so now all of that coming together, he's being drafted at quarterback 15. What? Bonix. Bonix is. - Boom Shakalaka. - I mean, why is he being drafted over double the amount of positions that he's ever finished? Like he's never finished half as bad as quarterback 15. They add Jalen Waddle. They're on a good often. - But Jason. - Yes. - He got hurt last year and there's schedule. - Yeah. - There's schedules really crappy. - So a crappy schedule is absolutely true in the sense of difficulty, but it isn't necessarily a bad schedule if he's good. - He also sometimes seems drunk. (laughing) - He does. - When he's at the market sometimes he seems like he's out of drink. - He rolls out and he's like, I feel like sometimes he looks at the crowd. And he's like, "Check this out." - I genuinely. - And then you're like, "Oh, not even close." - I genuinely thought that what you were saying was some interview thing. I'm like, "I don't remember him singing through him." - No, him on the field. - Okay, that would be us during our. - So the opening schedule, the opening schedule, he's got to play the chiefs, great team. They're probably not favorite. He's got to play the Jaguar's great team. He's got to play the Rams' great team. He's got to play the 49ers' great team. He's got to play the Chargers' great team. I get that those are decent teams. - He was not a my guy for me solely because of the first six games schedule. - Yes, he's been on our board as a my guy. I'm so in on Bonix and I didn't know some of those numbers you just shared. But the beginning of the season, for some reason, there's doubt about Denver in general. - Right. - Well, I just didn't because there were games last year. No, there were games last year where you're like, why is there often so bad? - There were, if you played the Raiders and they scored 12 points or something silly. - Yeah, didn't they lose to them in week one or something? - Oh, the Patriots. - Well, what's the divisional odds, dude? They are third highest. - So Chiefs Chargers Broncos Raiders. - My argument. - Chargers? - On these. - Yeah. - Plus 16. - It gives me, I have to. - Chargers are second. - I have to visit someone real quick. - Chiefs plus 160, Chargers plus 190, Broncos plus 225. - A lot of times when you are playing against another good. If the Broncos are a very good team, if Bonix is a good quarterback, then you actually want games like the Chiefs, like the Chargers, like the Broncos, like the Niners. Those games could end up where the quarterbacks go tip for tat and it's over 50 points scored. Yes, they might be not favored in the game and you go, oh, for the first six weeks they're underdogs. Being an underdog isn't always a problem. Much more so for running backs, but for a quarterback where you've got to keep up great because they've got a great defense. So you want them to play against teams that are going to score a lot. So I think he's just, right now if you're in a, if you're in a super flex league, he is just so cute. - How about you. - How about you pass on Jackson, Darden, take Broncos? - Sure, I'll be happy to. If I'm in the, often I am waiting for Darden the ninth and someone takes him before me. Bonix is a great consolation prize. I have no problem with that. - Oh, it's just a breaking news. I had no clue you liked this, dude. Mike, your value pick. - I love this player and people are coming back. - And yet I think he remains an absolute value in dress. - You are, in fact, the highest on this player. - Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey. - We did it. - I do like it. - I don't know how you were lowest on every other player in the NFL, but the highest on this guy in our rankings. It is Mr. Zay flowers of the Baltimore Ravens. - It gets the Mr. when he collected that check. - Yeah, I say, we're gonna start at the top. The dude is hashtag, good. Baltimore thinks so to the tune of $104 million Garron Teed. All right, now we got that out of the way. Let's, the career, the trajectory of his career. Fantasy finishes, 30, 22, 7. It's consistency ranking 29 20 16. I want to care a lot more about really target share 24% 25% and then 28% of Baltimore's targets last year. We've we talk about it all the time targets are the stickiest stat like touchdowns come and go targets are forever. And looking at the way that the draft is going like everyone else with a target share of of 27% or higher is being drafted as a top 12 wide receiver besides Garrett Wilson and Zay flowers. Those are the only two guys not in the top 12 who last year had at least a 27% target share or higher. You have Lamar Jackson. Yes, it was a down year for him. I'm throwing that in the garbage. Lamar Jackson still remains an elite quarterback in the NFL in my opinion. It's since 2010 30 wide receivers were drafted in the first round that saw 300 or more targets through the first three years. They average a touchdown every 18.3. So flowers touchdown expectation. He's more at he should be at 19 instead of 14 like I'm saying I think there is some touchdown regression that can happen to for Lamar. It's not the same system like if you said positive regression. Yeah, yeah. In a positive direction. If everything were exactly the same maybe I'd have less hope for for Zay flowers pulling in seven or more touchdowns on the season. Are they going to be are they long ones? No, I look at this what I'm saying if we don't know exactly what's going to what will change. But we know there will be a big change. What won't is he's number one on the team and they're like this separation between him and the rest of of everyone else on this squad as a skill position player. I think it is a massive, massive gap. I mean, we're talking about Jacobi Lane is the like the hotness of like a fourth round. I say we know what Bateman is. So Bateman's not a threat to flowers. Right. We know what Andrews is at this stage of his career. They don't have another up and coming tight end. Correct. That's actually a concern for the Baltimore. Like if you go beyond Andrews, it's a bit of a concern. Yeah, they do have and they lost some offensive line stuff as well. But like Jacobi Lane is the next possible contributor in the passing game and you can't imagine Jacobi Lane threatening a hundred and four million dollar man. No, which says to me he might be a 30% target share player this year. That's not out of like that. That's not a wild thing to project. I'm not going to go that high, but that would not be a shocking thing at the end of the year for for what they invested in him and what the rest of the team is looked at the books still love Ravens. They're favorites in each of their first seven games. And yes, we do. I want I want the the Ravens to be favorites. I want them to know that they're going to go out and they're going to score a bunch of points. So they are they're tied with the bills for second and Super Bowl odds. The Ravens are a solid squad and it's just it's safe flowers here. The targets are going to be there. And flowers is sitting in a range that is not with the top tier. The Ravens are currently the number one team in terms of odds to win the AFC title. There you go. That plus 470 really. Oh, they they pass the bill plus 510. Sometimes those numbers, Mike, when it's Super Bowl versus AFC title are somehow different, even though they're the same thing. Tomorrow, we have a mock draft may him episode on the show. We're going to be talking through a lot of great stuff next week, including players where embarrassed to love. Mike is not embarrassed as they flowers. He is no, I am proud of it. And then we'll get into some mailbag. We will do the my guys next week. And like I said, I'm going to sneak three names into the UDK. Somebody over there remind me to do that right after the show so that you guys have a little teaser. Don't tell anybody about it. We got the show on Wednesday. And don't forget about that. The mega low bowl. Go get in there. Megalable.com. The time is now drafts from September 4 through the 8th the day before kickoff. A bunch of different times you can choose from. You'll get placed in a league. We have really refined the rules over the past few years. We've got double the amount of like admin commissioners this year to make sure that these leagues are run exceptionally well. And let me tell you the amount of hours and hours and hours that go into making sure these drafts go off correctly that that there aren't, you know, tanking or collusion or problems in these leagues. And it's just a lot of work goes into them. They're very, very fun to play. They're very fun. Everybody who's in them loves them and they play year after year after year. And I enjoy it. I enjoy meeting foot clan members in it. Yeah, so go there right now. Megalable.com. We will say goodbye for today. But we'll say hello again tomorrow because we have another episode coming your way. Some octraft mayhem. We'll talk to you then. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. 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