Bullsh*t Ceasefires Everywhere

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No matter what you pick, Ridge has free shipping. 99 day risk-free trial and a lifetime warranty on all of their products. For a limited time, our listeners get 10% off at Ridge by using the code PSTW at checkout. Just head to Ridge and use code PSTW in your all set. After you purchase, they will ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell them our show sent you. [MUSIC PLAYING] And now, the news. OK, sorry for the jump scare there. I mean, it's understandable if you have a flight or flight response to political news these days. But there is a better way. I'm David Greene, host of Left Right and Center. It's a weekly roundtable where we seek to understand what's happening in politics and listen to each other's perspectives. Listen every week, and you'll be ready to engage, and not just rage. Left Right and Center, available everywhere you get podcasts. [MUSIC PLAYING] Welcome back to "Pod's Day of the World" on Tommy Vittor. I'm Ben Rhodes. Ben this morning, I saw a bunch of coverage of Jeff Bezos kind of buying the Met Gala. And then I read a story about the family that owns Samsung paying an $8 billion in Heritage Tax Bill. And I thought, we could do that. Maybe the Koreans know something we don't. We'll be cool to do that. We can actually collect money from these people, so they don't buy all your cultural institutions. Not that I-- I don't know. Not that the Met Gala is always my jam, but something kind of gross about it. Yeah, you know, it's a little at least the age capitalism, whatever. It's very like collapsing Roman Empire vibes. Collegula. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Anyway, but yeah, it did make me think like, oh, yeah. We remember all that ranting and raving, but the deaf facts and how to hurt farmers and all this bullshit. And that's just protecting billionaires who pay. Well, you didn't get invited to any of the good parties in high school, so now you have to buy the biggest party in the world for his wife. Honestly, no, that's strategy. It's fun. I'll see you buy your way to space. You can do whatever you want these days. I just want to note, because there's a lot of my algorithm has trained me for Nick's Twitter. And absolutely paced at the Sixers yesterday, getting revenge for you. It's Celtic's just a huge divide. Because Ben Stiller, Nick Superfen, went to the Met Gala. OK, getting dragged pretty hard. Why? I give a pass. He's always there. I'm not mad at Ben Stiller. I will note that Timmy Shalame went to the game. Oh, I see. Instead of going to the game, did you also-- I also loved when Ben Stiller tweeted, well, we got that done clearly about the next day. People thought it was about the chorus bottom sooner as I said it. So this is really fun. So I have a Nick's text read with my best friends in high school. And it's the funniest read, because it's literally like, we know we're watching the game. So it'll just be like, OG. Right. Got it. No context. And Ben Stiller literally tweets, like he's on our thread. You have no idea what he's talking about. He's like, we got it. Oh, we almost had it. And then these magazines are like, I can't believe you said that. Can't believe you said that. We almost got Trump. It's like, you fucking nerds. It's just not everything is politics, even for us. Right, even us. Even us. We like sports, you know. Even these nerds, I agree. We've got a great show today. We're going to cover all the latest from Iran from Trump's plan to guide ships to the straightover moves and why the administration is insisting that the US and Iran literally firing at each other, waste sank a bunch of boats. Apparently, that's not a ceasefire violation. Interesting. And then we'll talk about some newly leaked intelligence about the impact of the US and Israeli bombing campaign on Iran's nuclear infrastructure or lack thereof, and whether there's any semblance of a plan or an endgame for negotiations. We'll dig into the politics back home. Some polling data from the post over the weekend. And then we'll tell you guys what we've heard from people on the ground in Iran. We'll also cover how this is impacting Trump's upcoming trip to China, the latest from Lebanon, and the truly hellish situation on the ground for people in Gaza in the lack of any reconstruction efforts. Then we're going to do an update on the war between Russia and Ukraine, the political situation in Russia, and then we'll have a little fun at the end at the expense of a U.S. ambassador Benaz and CNN. I don't know what this is. I, Michael, has a sense of humor. This will be usually lands. This will be fun. Interesting, Michael. Trust, trust the plan. And then you'll hear my interview with Congressman Jason Crowe from Colorado, who you know well, Ben. We talk about Iran, efforts by Congress to force an authorization of the war. His grilling of Pete Hegg's death last week, he took an interesting tack focused on this one, really shady staffer at the Pentagon, and made some interesting news. Then we can talk about Trump's plan to move troops out of Germany, because the chance of Germany hurt Trump's feelings. Can I just say, 'cause we kick around Democrats, as they need to be kicked around a fair amount on, not just the show, but under his, you know, Ken Martin. Jason Crowe's great dude. Yeah. And like just, and like gets it, and is taking on Trump on the war in the right ways, is leading the D-Triple C, the Congressional Campaign and Committee candidate recruitment. Anyway, every now and then we need to point out that there's some good Democrats. Yeah, there's some great Democrats out there. But it's easier to be mean than nice, but you're right. Yeah, well, unfortunately, the Democratic Party gives us a lot of reasons to be mean. A lot of reasons to be mean. And by the way, Ben is actually doing today's episode top list to help us get more views on the pod say the world YouTube page. Thank you for your service, Ben. You're looking great. You've been working out. That's probably a joke, but you're gonna have to subscribe to find out. But please subscribe to pod say the world in YouTube to ensure you don't miss any pop tops, any bonus episodes we do there about breaking news. Also, you help us display Spend Shapiro out of the YouTube algorithm. And you may need to come up with someone other than the Shapiro, because I noticed the daily wire numbers are tankin. Tankin. Tough, tough, tough. Turns out just being valuable and then ya know, supporters not. Yeah, it turns out being just pro war and you kind of propaganda isn't as profitable as saying, Emmanuel Macron's wife has a day. Apparently that's how you kill it in media these days. I guess we have, maybe we'll get there. We have Candice over here. That's how we had subs. We got Pablo Torre winning a Pulitzer for sports reporting. Is this telling you that? I don't know. In the middle, no Pablo's the best. I had him up in Potsay, America a while back. Also, Pulitzer Prize winner. Yeah, Pulitzer Prize winner. If you like to work crooked media doing, by the way, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. At crooked.com/friends, you get ad free episodes at this show, ad free episodes of Potsay, America. Get great bonus content from Potsay, America. You get Dan Pfeiffer diving deep into polling. And it's really the single best thing you can do to help us grow as a progressive independent media company. Also, subscribers get early access and discounted tickets to CrookedCon. And other CrookedCon perks, TBD, maybe more topless than at crooked.com. Oh, it's possible. It's the first time you're hearing about this, but there's a movement. To me and his son, Pike, we'll go to the office together. We'll see how his better body is. Yeah. I think I know who it is. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Not you, Hassan. CrookedCon, Jordan and our team works out. The Hassan Towson was all over. Oh, really? The Crush and Burpees and stuff, yeah. Socialist Burpees, it's pretty cool. CrookedCon, happening November 5th or 7th in DC. Go to CrookedCon.com for more info. Should we talk about Iran? I think we should. I think we should, because somebody has to wait into the cesspool of lies that emanates from our government. Straight of bullshit. So the big news this week is this Pentagon plan to quote unquote, guide ships through the straight-of-form news, not escorting defend guide. It's called Project Freedom. I guess you're free to get shot at. What happened to Epic Fury? It's ongoing. It's paused. Trump was so happy about that name. Yeah, I did really love that name, Project Freedom. Again, Hegseth says this is a distinct mission from Epic Fury. It's not a naval escort mission. He and Trump also insist that Iran firing at US Navy ships in the straight-of-form news, firing at targets in the UAE in Oman, at a South Korean ship, the list goes on. It's not a breach of the ceasefire. And Centcom also says that US helicopters sinking six Iranian boats, also not a breach of the ceasefire. I guess that probably tells you everything you need to know. Giving the Iranians, I guess, the same treatment they give these railings, which they can bomb Gaza and love in the community and still say there's a cease-pass. It also probably tells you the Trump does not want to go back to war. Anyway, here is Hegseth talking about this new mission on Tuesday morning in a press event. This operation is separate and distinct from Operation Epic Fury. Project Freedom is defensive in nature, focused in scope and temporary in duration. With one mission, protecting innocent commercial shipping from Iranian aggression. American forces won't need to enter Iranian waters or airspace, it's not necessary. We're not looking for a fight. But Iran also cannot be allowed to block innocent countries and their goods from an international waterway. Iran is the clear aggressor. As a direct gift from the United States to the world, we have established a powerful red, white, and blue dome over the street. Once again, America is using its strength to lift up others. Iran is trying to subjugate the world. To our partners, allies, and the rest of the world, this is a temporary mission for us. As I've said before, the world needs this waterway a lot more than we do. We're stabilizing the situation so commerce can flow again, but we expect the world. to step up. At the appropriate time and soon we will hand responsibility back to you. Given the world of dumb world. Is it like world B3? Remember that basketball player? He talks about the world like it's a guy like some some guy named world to step up. Something about the way he talks just annoys the shit. Everything. It's like it's just cat in the hat. War crime, beat poetry, not it just drives me nuts. So Sencom says project freedom will involve guided missile destroyers over a hundred land and sea aircraft and 15,000 service members. They're also like very clearly eager to hand this mess off to other countries soon Ben. So I imagine they'll be cutting and running. Sure there are a lot of takers. Yeah. Yeah, a lot of it. So Ben like I'm genuinely confused by the end game here for Trump. Like there's no chance this half-ass plan to like quote unquote guide ships is going to get traffic through the straight back to pre-war levels. I guess we can hand it off to other countries like you you said but like no one has our naval capacity. So I guess you know maybe everybody ends up paying a toll or the straight remains remains partially closed and it just crouched at the global economy. I don't know. So like I'm trying to be charitable here. I'm trying to genuinely understand the strategy for the straight before we get into the nuclear stuff. Do you have any like sense of what they're doing? I think that the the fact that we're sitting here, you know, two months into this war. And we a war that was started again to change regime and the nuclear program and ushered freedom in Iran has led to project freedom to be a GPS service for ships that are already stuck in this period of moves. You know, it just shows you the catastrophic error again. There are a number of things that jumped out to me. They are worried about the absence of legal basis. So the reason I think that they're going to these great lengths to call it a project freedom and say it's distinct from epic fury is because under the War Powers Act which they have ignored. That's the act that says Congress must, you know, authorize a war. You can kind of get a 60 day period where you're allowed to engage in military action before you really get in trouble. You know, if you're responding to an imminent threat which Jason Crow kept correcting me on because there was no a minute threat because there's no. But because there he said when he was on the hill that there there it was over because of the ceasefire so they have to make this seem different. It's interesting that he seems to care about that that just shows you that there he isn't care about Democrats that shows you that even Republicans are feeling humiliated as they should by the absence of any congressional authorization. The second thing is there I cannot possibly overstate how insulting their tone towards the rest of the world is you know you've done a very good job week after week at detailing these massive shortages that are crippling the economies of countries around the world leading to severe shortages making life hell for like probably untold millions of people around the world. And so for him to kind of smartly say you know like some trader who just did a line of coke in the bathroom before he wanders out to the floor you know well you guys you know we we don't need this is bad as you do and you better come in here like like what is that for like who is that for like who is the audience for that because if it's the quote unquote friends and allies he's talking about they they have no friends anymore they lost them and that's not going to make them want to step up you know right and then the last thing is they just fundamentally. Because they did such piss poor planning about this whole thing and didn't even anticipate that they closed the street of our moves they don't and they don't even understand that the problem is not that there's a lot of guidance for the ships it's that their minds in the street of our moves that the Iranians are firing at tankers that that there's a fear factor that no amount of guidance is going to solve. And similarly if the United States Navy which is the strongest in the world can't reopen the street which it has not no matter what they say they don't control the straight if they control the straight all the ships who get out. It's not like some pickup team of other countries can do it either so he like it's just this kind of weird mix of defense and offensive political messaging with no strategy attached to. Yeah and there are there's 20 nearly 23,000 sailors on 1500 or more vessels that are just trapped in the Gulf like trying to get out that that is that's what did stay right now and rubio also the briefing at the White House today there did this full court press there was this bizarre event this morning where Trump was. Bringing back like the national fitness award we did his kids know a sinter guard ex met pictures there was always sad to see. It's always sad when the athletes you like to not to be mega shredded man yeah he was there's but Trump's like talking about like blowing up Iranians in front of all these children so there was that then hex and came to their briefing and then Rubio went to the White House briefing room today which is like a pig and shit like so happy to be there so excited about. What he thinks is his job but anyway Rubio said the blockade is costing Iran $500 million a day and Trump did this interview with his staffer Hugh Hewitt on his radio show earlier this week about like oil and gas infrastructure in Iran and said. And they say that in two weeks you know when they talk about time in two weeks they're going to have a natural explosion of their oil that's going to make it impossible for them to really recover from so Trump seems to think that. If the blockade goes on it will permanently blow up the Iranian oil and gas infrastructure and maybe that's his plan to bring them to the table but again the Iranians are like they're not even willing to negotiate about nuclear issues right now their offer is. A ceasefire from the US and Israel so also in Lebanon they want sanctions relief they want other financial benefits and then they're willing to talk about the. Nuclear issues once the word basically over and then Trump won't even specify what a ceasefire violation would look like and like I don't know if you watch the cane and hexeth briefing but the reporters in that room are such a joke they were literally asking about whether Iran is using like mind carrying dolphins to attack ships or like kamikaze dolphins so that's where we're at in terms of the reporting on this. Yeah I think first of all they have no plan and they because when you go to war not knowing why you're going to war other than the BB and now commencing to do it. You don't even really know what you're trying to get in the negotiation and then they're trying to spin their way out of this but the reality isn't a lot of them spin it. My only observation I add to this and it's it deals with the military you know we always have to do a lot you know this is kind of throat clearing about how great the military is and it is like the people in it you know a lot of them are wonderful people. Dan Kane has been really disappointing to me I mean I texted you I watched that he's not as bad as hexeth so you're watching and you're like oh this guy seems better than hexeth but he's gilding the lily you know it's more factual nature but yeah it's more factual nature there's some tether to the truth. But he gives you kind of a blizzard of very tactical details that add up to no strategy and and so he but by standing there next to hexeth and trying to make the military operation seem like remarkably competent. He's kind of putting you know he's putting lipstick on this pig and what worries me is it trump you know it's always hard to play the game of what does trump actually believe because everything out of his mouth about this war is a lie or a half truth or. But I do think that they're briefing him like the blockades going great sir you know yeah I do too this blockade is never in the history of blockades is there been a blockade like this blockade and Iran is losing 500 million dollars a day sir and the the world you know things will blow up in two weeks which I think they said that two weeks ago by the way. That's I think they're quite literally and and I think that they're doing a grave disservice to the country in the world if they're doing that and I don't know that for fact but it seems like that because trump. Like just likes to be told how well everything's going and then he goes out and he repeats it in a dumber version and he and he amps it up but I can kind of feel that happening here and look just because you can like position ships somewhere doesn't mean you have good strategy doesn't mean that what you're doing is working. And good military advice is going to the president states and saying this is not working we cannot solve this problem materially like you and that I worry that's not happening. Yeah I mean what panic on press corps like do you have suicide bomber dolphins swing around the street or what are we doing here okay Ben as it has become our tradition immediately after we wrapped the show Donald Trump sent a tweets. That actually I don't know the implications of this one well the war is ended like several times right after we take it we've had a million ceasefire is everything better so here's what he truth on true social. Based on the request of Pakistan and other countries the tremendous military success that we have had tremendous campaign against our country of Iran and additionally the fact that great progress has been made toward is complete and final agreement with representatives of Iran. We've mutually agreed that while the blockade or remain in full force and effect project freedom the movement of ships through the street of her moves will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the agreement can be finalized and signed from president Donald J Trump I've no fucking clue what that means. I mean it means we won't tell me I think it sort of means maybe that this whole plan wasn't working for all the reasons we just discussed and were skeptical of. And now they're going to pretend that they're close to signing some sort of real agreement to reopen the street. Yeah I mean not to be cynical. I'm coming from this but perhaps project freedom freedom did not succeed in lowering the world prices as he might have wanted and so now we're trying a different tack. 'cause all he really cares about is the markets. - Yeah, but he's seeming to suggest that they're close to a final agreement. - To a final agreement. But as we discussed, I mean, the Iranian position was like full ceasefire in Iran and Lebanon. - There's an agreement for him to have that involves-- - Sanctions, really. - Iran, you know, getting a lot and return for a little. And so, at some point, one of these will be true. - Right. - And there'll be a deal in which the IRGCs still in charge of Iran and they get a bunch of money from other sanctions relief for tolling the straight or unfrozen assets. In return for some pretty cosmetic nuclear concessions or maybe some medium sized ones like the JCPOA. And maybe this will be the time or maybe this is just another effort to try to lower gas prices. But I don't know, Tommy. Would you put project freedom up there with Operation Overlord, the Normandy invasion? - Yeah, it's up there. - It's just a remarkable success for Secretary Heggseth and-- - One of the greatest blockades ever. - One of the greatest 24 hour GPS navigation operations ever launched. - Here's your map, Operation Freedom. Okay. Well, we wanted to hop on and just tell you guys that this true social post was sent. The story of this war is Trump just kicking a can down the road for every 24 hour new cycle and market moving events just to kind of keep them sock market on sides. - Yeah, I wonder what trades will learn to place right before this new year as a bunch of futures at pay. But okay, we're gonna go back to the regular show and we're gonna talk about the big picture I see is the nuclear stuff. Things really matter, but another true social post. Diplomacy by social media, going great. - Well, I just glad our freedom has been defended like this. - Yeah, thank you, sir. (upbeat music) - Parts of the world is brought to you by Acorns. There are a million reasons why people talk to themselves out of investing. It can feel like they don't have enough money to do it. They don't know enough information. Maybe they don't know how. But so many-- - It can feel complicated. - It can feel complicated. But so many of us only focus on where our money is today. Acorns is the financial wellness app that cares about where your money is going tomorrow. Acorns is a smart way to give your money a chance to grow. Acorns is easy, you can sign up in minutes and start automatically investing your spare money even if all you've got is spare change. Acorns grows with you, whether you're just starting out or you're thinking about settling down. Acorns supports your big and small goals across every life stage. 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Here's a super cut of some of his attempts over the last couple of the days, and we'll watch the spin evolve a bit. I did something that was, I don't know, full loose prey. But it was smart. I would do it again. But I thought the numbers would be much worse. I thought the stock market would go down much more. I thought the oil prices would go up much more. I said, but we have no choice. Whether it does or doesn't, I have to do what's right. We can't let them have a nuclear weapon. We hit all new highs. And I said, we have to take care of business because we can't let that happen. So we did a little detour. And it's working out very nicely. Our country's booming now, despite the fact that we're in a, I call it a mini-war, hit a poll on the war with Iran. And they said only 32% of the people like it. Well, I don't like it, not like war at all. To golden age for America, we hit it all time. High stock market today, despite that we're in a little skirmish military. I call it a skirmish because Iran has no chance. So to summarize, it's a mini-war or a skirmish. The polls are fake, but the stock market is up, so who cares? So more importantly, then, there was a report from Reuters on the impact of Epic Fury, the most recent round of fighting on Iran's nuclear program. Reuters reported that US intelligence believes that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer when analysts determined that the previous strikes, Operation Midnight Hammer, had set them back. It basically pushed the timeline back to a year. So in other words, the latest round of fighting has not set Iran's nuclear timeline back any further. Before the war in June, US intelligence set Iran was three to six months away from having enough highly enriched uranium to build a nuke. After the 12-day war, they said it was nine to 12 months away, and now there's still about a year away. So it's not clear that this has done anything on the nuclear front. Of course, we've taken out-- the US and Israel have taken out a lot of conventional military capacity, killed a lot of Iran's leaders. But that's not what this was supposed to be about. So I mean, Ben, again, we're not having nuclear talks that we know of-- the US and Iran. But the state of positions remain very far apart. Again, earlier this week, Trump talked to a Neocon fanboy, Hugh Hewitt. He told him he wanted all of Iran's highly enriched uranium out of the country, Iran refuses to do that. Trump has said repeatedly that Iran can't do any nuclear enrichment. Iran repeatedly has asserted its right to enrich. Trump wants to cap their missile program. He wants to end their support for proxies. It seems unlikely that the IRGC is going to be down with that. So again, I'm trying to figure out an endgame, a path forward. So I'm like, common ground in these talks. But I'm struggling to see it. I think that the fundamental problem here is we had this debate back in 2015 when the Iran nuclear deal went into effect. And having looked at the problem for years and having gotten the same presentation or version of it, the Netanyahu gave Trump to bomber on. When we looked at that, we also looked at what was possible at the negotiating table. What became very clear is, number one, you cannot destroy a nuclear program by bombing it. You just can't. They know how to do this. They know how to do the nuclear fuel cycle. They have uranium. They have the capacity to build centrifuges that can enrich that uranium. They have the capacity to stockpile it. You can bomb buildings where that takes place, but they can move it around. They can go underground. They've got lots of different scientists. You cannot bomb that out of existence. You could invade the country and fully occupy it and hunt down every last scientist and piece of the program, but we're obviously not going to do that either. So therefore, you can only resolve this issue diplomatically. If you resolve it diplomatically, there is absolutely no way that the Iranian government will ever agree that they do not have the capacity to enrich uranium. That they're going to abandon that in perpetuity. They're just not going to do that. We'd like that to happen. They're not going to do that. And so therefore, all you can do is negotiate some restrictions on their program where they're shipping the nuclear material that they produce out of the country. They're operating less centrifuges, and there are inspections. That's the Iran nuclear deal. That's the JCPOA. The only thing available to Trump as an off-ramp to this war, potentially, because I don't know if the Iranians are even moved to do it, is basically the deal that Obama had that he tore up. And agreeing to that would reveal the absolute fucking insanity of not just Trump, but the entire Iran war-industrial complex. All the Lindsey Graham's, obviously the Israelis, obviously the hack, shit posters online who work at think tanks that had no purpose for existing, other than to cheerlead for a war with Iran. Those people cannot admit that they were wrong. And the only way out of this war is for them to, if not admit that they're wrong, tacitly admit they're wrong by essentially trying to pursue a version of what Obama's nuclear deal was. I mean, honestly, I think that's where it is. And Trump, they've tried all these other metrics, like we blew up some of their conventional military, We killed these leaders and. And everybody can see with their own eyes that the IRGC took our best punch and is still standing, that they control the straight-of-form moves, and that they actually have more enriched uranium in a stockpile than they had the day Trump pulled out of that nuclear deal. And what was this all, not just this war, this whole last decade, what was it for? The insanity of it is just apparent, and Trump doesn't understand these things. But I think the core point here is absent something like that. This war, like literally, there's accomplished precisely nothing and at unbelievable costs. Yeah, according to US intelligence, it's just nothing different. It's a ship. It's nothing. Because the ballistic missiles, they'll rebuild the ballistic missiles. They'll produce the ballistic missiles. So, like, this is completely insane that this happened. And by the way, that event with the kids, Trump talked about the power of nuclear weapons. He talked about killing Iranians. He did his whole riff about, like, trans athletes, and then he said to them, "Barak Hussein, Obama, have you heard of him again to a bunch of kids?" You think that set of remarks is going to wind up in your forthcoming book about great speeches. I will say, having spent four years writing a book to try to tell the history of the United States through 15 consequential speeches. That's got to make it in there. Including speeches I don't agree with. You know, the vice president and the Confederacy's and the Reagan's in there. The degree to which the bar has lowered here in Trump. I will say to people, though, the book is out three weeks from today. Okay. So, now we're in that sweet pre-order window. Bye, that's okay. If you are planning to buy the book, buying it now helps a lot. Because if you get some pre-orders, they ship more books to the bookstores, and it all works out better. Get them on that list. Where do they go? Give them away to buy it. I mean, you get a bookshop. Oh, I never find my plug. Always say the battle for American identity. And actually, don't go to Amazon. Go to Bookshop. Go to the Met Gala. Go to Bookshop. That's the support center for the bookstores. And then I'm going to hang the road. I'll be on a book tour. I'm going to, like, on 15 places, so we'll make that available. I will have to say to the San Francisco world, those two, in particular, though, because tickets are on sale now. I'll be at City Arts and Lectures on June 9th with Jalani Cobb. I'm excited about that event. I know we get some San Francisco listeners. Got a lot of San Francisco listeners. Great city. OK, so the politics of this are becoming quite clear. And it's a political disaster for Trump. Washington posted a poll out over the weekend. Some numbers for you, Ben, you tell me these are good. Overall, approval rating for Trump is 37% approval of handling of Iran. It's 33%, 66% disapprove. Proof of inflation is 27%. Obviously, that's getting worse every day because of oil and gas prices. Cost of living, 23% approval, 61% think going to war with Iran was a mistake. 65% aren't confident that will prevent Iran from getting a new, 22% think the Trumps actions against Iran are consistent with his promises in the 2024 election. So I mean, look, all these numbers suggest that they want to run screaming from this thing. I think it was the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump keeps, like, kind of toggling between wanting to severely punish Iran for not doing what he said, but also worrying about getting pulled deeper into the conflict. I think anyone who's gotten in one of these regime change wars over the last couple of decades could have told him that military action was not going to drive political change in Iran. But here we are to look at yourself out of this one big guy. He can't get out of it because you can't change prices. You can't change how people are feeling and what they're seeing. I think the other thing from all these clips that stands out to me is that there's a convergence of the extent to which he's out of touch that I think is important and you're seeing some people on the Maga right pick up on this, including people like Tucker Carlson, which is that, you know, he now is pivoting to the stock market, you know. Well, you know, the worst, you know, we had to do this detour, you used to mean excursion, now it's a detour, but the stock market said an all-time high. I think actually that is the precisely wrong message because people are beginning to get, you know, wise to the fact that the stock market is completely fucking juiced by an AI bubble. And so basically Trump is up there boasting about the fact that a very small number of people are making a bunch of money on an AI bubble creating technologies that are going to come for your jobs while he's fighting a war that does nothing for you and makes your gas prices higher. I start to affect things like fertilizer and all these other things that people really depend upon in this country. And so in a way, the war itself, you know, it's pulled back the curtain that the emperor has no clothes, he has no idea what he's doing, he's broken his promises, he never probably believed them in the first place. But also like even his way to spin himself out of it is like compounding the error because telling people that they shouldn't be upset about high gas prices or a war or the- Or portability is a myth, you know, a hoax from Democrats. If your only play is to point to the stock market, that would only make me more pissed. Oh absolutely. Especially, yeah, you barely own stocks. I mean, most rich people own stocks. Speaking of what we've also been trying to figure out is going on in Iran, I mean, our producers have been trying really hard to get in touch with people on the ground. Obviously, that's very hard. There's an internet blackout. There's all these threats in the regime. But just to give you a sense of what kind of conditions people are living under. So one contact we did get in touch with through an intermediary, received this text afterward, this is verbatim. Dear citizen, following a review of actions carried out in cyberspace and pursuant to articles of the Islamic penal code, your act of approving and publishing criminal content in cyberspace is currently under investigation by the cyber police. Obviously, that person didn't want to talk further. We were finally able to connect with another civilian in Iran, a teacher. We decided not to play the audio of that message because we didn't want to create any risk for this person. We wanted to share some of what was said. They said their ability to teach has been severely disrupted by the ongoing blackout on internet access. They said even with the expensive VPN services internet access is limited and unstable and that people have to spend the large part of their income just to stay connected. There's a type of government provided internet often referred to the national restricted internet that gives you some basic access, but it comes with control and monitoring and all sorts of restrictions. And because of that, people don't feel comfortable using it and overall just getting online is no longer simple. It's expensive. It's unstable and it comes with a bunch of trade-offs between access, quality and privacy. And then they said on terms of fear of the government, quote, "We do not have freedom. We do not have freedom of expression. Even basic forms of dissent can lead to serious serious consequences. People can be detained or faced severe accusations. In my own experience, I've received threatening messages simply for liking a few posts on Instagram. It's not normal that a simple action like liking a post on Instagram can lead to intimidation and make you feel like your own safety could be at risk." So, Trump occasionally now will mention the protesters killed earlier this year. He did some weird thing today where he said that 40,000 people were killed by five snipers, which doesn't make a lot of sense, but it's worth noting that he's almost exclusively made their lives worse and deep in the repression that they face from the regime. Yeah. And I talked to someone I know here, a friend of mine, who's family's Iranian and they were describing the secured way they have to get news. They can't really be in touch. They'll hear a second hand. Somebody hears from somebody. He hears from somebody. They're okay. But, you know, it's just howlish. I'm just going to say something to kind of introduce a new idea here, Tommy, which is in the regime, there's nothing to do with the IRGC, the Iranian regime, and how repressive they are. Like, we have a deeply fucked up foreign policy because of how routinely we ignore the human cost of all the things that were due around the world. And this war is case in point, the girl school we bombed in the first day is case in point. The other thing I would say, though, is that, you know, somebody asked me recently, well, what do you regret about the Iran deal, you know? And usually that's like, you know, they want me to say, like, this sunset clauses should have been 12 years instead of 10 or something. I actually regret, when I think, and if I were to make a recommendation for what Trump should do, not that he'd listen to me, let's lift the sanctions on Iran. And I know whatever in turn listens to this podcast over it, yeah, but like maybe not everything, not the sanctions on the IRGC or whatever, but like, is this helping them? We've had that we've been sanctioning the shit out of this country for 20 years. That teacher's life is far more miserable because of it. And she's getting repressed more because of our sanctions, our sanctions empower the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Do not listen any longer to these hawks who tell you that the way that you care about human rights is by sanctioning countries and cutting off basic goods and collapse and currencies. You know what? If you lifted sanctions, like, and, you know, try to get something, try to get the nuclear program to do bigger sanctions relief, yeah, because I'm seriously trying to talk about it's so incremental. Because, you know what, that teacher and all these people in Iran, like, or might still be dealing with, like, an intolerable amount of repression, but their lives would be better. And if we think that sanctioning this country or sanctioning this regime is somehow changing it, it is entrenched, the worst people in Iran, deeper in power. And so this is a bigger conversation we can have going forward, but one idea for Democrats looking for new ideas is, and by the way, because what sanctions are hurting people, they're also going to shoot us in the face because the Chinese are going around the the world saying this is why you got to get out the dollars of votes for surf currency. And so what are we doing here? We're acting against human interest and we're acting against America's long term interest by pursuing these insane sanctions policies on Iran, on Cuba and all these countries that things just get worse in those countries. Yeah. Yeah. And by the way, Trump's going to China next week on May 14th and 15th, like Iran's foreign minister is there this week to get ahead of that visit. Listeners probably remember that this China trip was supposed to happen in late March early April, but Trump delayed it to deal with the Iran War. I'm sure this conversation you were just talking about about how the Chinese can help Iran and other countries get around US sanctions is front and center of the conversation. But despite the delay, I mean, Trump was like, look, we have delayed this trip because then the war will be over. And then we could focus on the real things like, no, the, the China, the Iran war has totally overtaken the trip. Trump kind of tried to low-key it today, talk about how nice China has been to him during the war, how they haven't challenged us. But Treasury Secretary Scott Besson had a slightly different take earlier this week on, I think he was on Fox News or Fox Business. Let's watch. Let's see. If China, let's, let's see them step up with some diplomacy and get the Iranians to open the streets. Said that twice now. Do you expect Beijing and President Xi to do something with regard to Iran? Again, all I will say is Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorism. But China has been buying 90% of their energy. So they are funding the largest state sponsor of terrorism. That's quite a broadside in advance of Trump's trip. Not quite on message there, Scotty. So first of all, Trump says we control the street. Right. So why does China have to open it? I mean, first of all, there's a cognitive dissonance. And second of all, these guys talk like it's, I don't know, 1992 or something like China, so do you think China gives two shits what Scott Besson says, like he can order around Xi Jinping? I mean, we're just living in, there's a reality in the world. And then there's like the Trump reality and increasingly people aren't even trying to kind of play along with it. Like they were at the beginning when they were a little afraid of terrorists and things like that. Look, Trump is intimidated by Xi Jinping. You can tell. You know, he's always pushing him. He doesn't want to piss him off. He's afraid that he got his ass handed to him in a trade war. And now he's created a huge problem for the Chinese and everybody else because they, you know, have supply lines and energy needs that like run into Iran. But like just hectoring them, I mean, if they were doing smart diplomacy, it's kind of like what I say, just so we can be constructive here. Look, a smart diplomatic effort would be like, look, we fucked up. Let's try to solve this problem comprehensively. You, you know, you work on the Iranians to kind of open up the street. We will lift some of these sanctions so that you can buy the oil more easily. And in return though, you got to get the stockpile of the nuclear material out. Right. You got to convince them to have the IEN. You know, this is what diplomacy would be, like, and they're incapable of doing that. But it didn't say what's happening is the Wall Street Journal reported the China's commerce ministry told companies just not to comply with US sanctions over the purchase of Iranian oil, but actually telling their companies to ignore us. There have been reports that China may be selling around weapons or other dual use materials. I'm sure they are. And like, in, you know, like Aldivias, who's an Iran expert who we've talked to in the show a bunch of times, said he's seeing people affiliated with the IRGC saying that Iran has been way too shy about aligning itself with China and Russia. So that's, you know, likely to come. We remember the Chinese facilitated this opening between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023. They're also getting very active with Pakistan on the diplomatic efforts to try to end this war currently. The Chinese are like attempting to fill the void in some way, and it's just, again, like, if this war wasn't happening, I'm sure the agenda would be trade deal, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, like all these big things, instead it's just going to be-- Just this. Yeah. And the Chinese, by the way, you know, that they see us, like, confirming all the arguments they've been making around the world forever, that the Americans are reckless, that they can't be trusted, that they overuse sanctions, that they're militaristic. The Trump is proving every Chinese argument that has been made in two months. And so they're going to reap a lot of geopolitical gains from this, although they also have like economic concerns about, you know, the potential global recession that this war could bring about. Interestingly, you know, they have a stockpile of oil that they can ride out for, I think, something like six months or maybe nine months. They do have LNG issues. And so the Qatar cutoff of LNG, like, is that gas field is shut down because Iran is bombed it. Is a problem for them. But it's a problem with the solution, which is in the long term, they're going to want to pull Qatar and some of those Gulf states into their orbit. Right. And I would be shocked if that's not one of the consequences of this war, is that the Gulf states that usually looked in the direction of the US are going to be much more open to look the Chinese deals reliable. Times are, you know, Beijing favored, but we know what the terms are. Yeah. Whereas the Americans, we have no idea what the fuck they're going to do day to day. Right. Exactly. So the other front in this war is in Lebanon and that fighting is just raging between these railings in Hezbollah. The Lebanese health ministry said 17 people have been killed in Sunday and over 2600 since the conflict started. Hezbollah said it carried out over a dozen attacks on Israeli soldiers on Monday. And Ben, I don't know about you. I'm on social media seeing more and more videos of these FPV drone attacks by Hezbollah on like Israeli tanks and stuff. They're basically taking all the technology we saw in Ukraine with like fiber optic drones that can evade electronic warfare defenses and using those in southern Lebanon to pretty devastating effect. The newer times, like a pretty big deep dive on satellite imagery from southern Lebanon, they found, quote, widespread demolitions have flattened expanses of at least two dozen towns and villages near the border with damage to government offices as well as civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals and mosques, Israel's defense minister, Israel cats explicitly said this pattern of destruction is following the Gaza models basically. And Trump is pushing for talks and ceasefire plans, but neither side seems particularly interested at this point. So not a ton to say new about Lebanon right now, except for it's like incredibly grim and just kind of steady state, like, I don't know if they're calling it a ceasefire, but it's just an ongoing war. It's insane that they call it a ceasefire and it's insane that Western outlets like, you know, talk about fragile ceasefires and things like this. The other thing that did you see Smotrich, you know, the finance minister say that he promised his son that he wouldn't destroy all of Lebanon so that his son and his generation could, I mean, this is really psychotic stuff. And look, when I remember they started carpet bombing something, Lebanon, if you posted like, which I did, you know, they're going to do the Gaza model in Lebanon, people would be like, oh, you Israel hate her, like, how dare you, you know, and now the Israeli government says, we're going to do in something Lebanon where we didn't Gaza, make it uninhabitable. Because what they're doing just so people understand is they're literally making it, they're not just destroying these villages, they're so comprehensively destroying, you know, the farmland, the olive trees, that there'll be nothing to move back to. That's what we mean by Gaza model. It's not just that they're leveling every building. It's it's there's going to be nowhere for those people to go back, you know. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Life is a lot sometimes regardless of what's keeping you up at night or leaving you overwhelmed. It's easy to feel like you have to figure it out all on your own, but you don't have to face these challenges alone. Having someone to listen to understand and to support you can make all the difference that's where BetterHelp comes in. BetterHelp Therapists work according to a strict code of conduct and her fully licensed in the U.S. BetterHelp does the initial matching works you can focus on your therapy goals. A short questionnaire helps identify your needs and preferences, and they're 12 or more years of experience and industry-leading match fulfillment rate means they typically get it right the first time. If you aren't happy with your match, switch to a different therapist at any time in their tailored wrecks. With over 30,000 therapists, BetterHelp is the world's largest online therapy platform, having served over 6 million people globally, and it works with an average rating of 4.9 to 5 for a live session based on over 1.7 million client reviews. It's a scary world out there. The President of the United States is threatening to genocide a whole country. You need a therapist. Just talk to someone. I'll talk to someone about all this stuff and whatever's going on in your life. You don't have to traverse life challenges alone. Find the personal support you're looking for in therapy, sign up and get 10% off at www.BetterHelp.com/cricketworld. This podcast is sponsored by Squarespace. 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Squarespace domains makes it easy to find the best name for your business at one fair all-inclusive price, no hidden fees or add-ons required, plus Squarespace provides everything you need to bring more of your dream to life, whether that means building a website, adding a professional email service, or more. Don't wait to claim your name and invest in your dream domain today. Head to squarespace.com for a free trial, and when you're ready to launch, go to squarespace.com/world, save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at squarespace.com/world. Speaking of the gods, we should touch base on all things Gaza, 'cause last October, everybody celebrated the ceasefire deal, brokered by the administration. But unfortunately, It's really been a ceasefire name only for people who live in Gaza and life in Gaza is hell on earth So some numbers for you guys The Palestinian health ministry says that since the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas 823 people have been killed and 2300 have been wounded Four Israeli soldiers have been killed since the ceasefire began only 250 of the promised 600 trucks of aid per day Or getting into Gaza partly that was the result of the one of the two crossing crossing being closed for a long time to do the Iran more the U.N. Office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs estimates that rodents are swarming 80% of the camps for displaced people and the World Health Organization reports that there have been over 110,000 cases of disease or infestation due to external parasites Ben as I was texting with Ferro Sidhuah earlier this week he was for listeners He was this heroic doctor who came on the show after he had volunteered in Gaza during the conflict And he said that like the society and the health infrastructure in Gaza is just so thoroughly destroyed that rat attacks on infants are now A major source of morbidity, so kids are getting sick and dying because they're getting attacked by rats And that can your baby getting attacked by rats the only power comes from generators. There's no grid left And the reconstruction cost is estimated at 70 billion and a third of that is needed like up front in the first year and a half Just to do basic infrastructure and essential services. So basically the the long story short is the places in this Nightmarish limbo Hamas is not disarmed. They refuse to disarm until Israel withdraws and Trump promises them up house in the state Israel is occupying pretty much half the Gaza Strip. It refuses to let in items that are essential for reconstruction All the people trapped by the Trump administration this like group of you know experts and technocrats To just sit on their ass. Yeah, they're sitting in Egypt at a resort doing nothing some of them want to be doing more But they they're just no funding. There's no way to do anything The civil police force that they kept talking about none of them have been trained and it's just it was so obvious Then at the time and even clearer now that Trump and Jared Kushner and Steve Whitcoff They only gave a shit about getting the Israeli hostages out and once that happened They were like, you know jobs done. They don't care about people in Gaza and You know the Israelis and Hamas both seem kind of fine with a status quo because it keeps them in charge For the Israel it deals with their kind of security concerns and the Palestinian people just suffer immensely in in you know in the meantime, so that that's the latest. I mean, it just sort of couldn't really be worse Yeah, I think I mean a couple of things I point out here first of all the The ceasefire violations that tend to get highlighted are the the attacks the bombing of Gaza and the killing of civilians with violence But another piece of this is it Israel has just fundamentally refused to let in the aid that it Promise to do under the under the terms of the ceasefire and so The reason the conditions are so squalid the reason that life continues to you know just be a Just hell on earth for civilians there is at least in part in large part that you know look If if if if Israel wanted to let the assistance in you wouldn't have Infants getting attacked by rats you wouldn't have people suffering malnutrition you wouldn't have Preventable deaths like this is a genocidal policy like that is continuing and just because they're not bombing at the same pace that they were before it doesn't mean that they're just not squeezing and squeezing and squeezing with complete disregard to the loss of civilian civilian life And the second thing Like I'd say is it when you look back. There's just something foolish about the celebration of that agreement, you know that and we you know we were calibrated at the time But this is like the worst case scenario in a lot of ways I mean, I guess it could be worse they could just start bombing and discriminately at the pace that they were before but Nothing not a finger is being lifted to help these people right and there's still drone strikes Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, but and the I'm sure that if you're Palestinian You know you hear is like the buzzing of drones overhead, you know the fear that that engenders and children is unimaginable to me and and and it just shows you that Trump and Nenya they wanted the hostages out and they kind of just wanted it to be downgraded on the Every assignment editor's desk around the world like the media. It's off the television screens a little less social media attention on it You know like and we can all move on well pretend we both pull together this board a piece Gaza reconstruction effort in facts Nothing will come of that but Jared Kushner will get to hit up the Saudis on the margins for his investment fund Steve Whitkopf can talk to the Pakistanis about buying hotels in New York and a crypto deal He made it with the Trump family crypto business, right the president of Indonesia as we talked about last week Can ask for Eric or Don Jr's cell phone number to figure out the golf course deal back home that he's using the Greece Trump, right? It's just like it's grift on the side. Yeah, and that's the last thing I was gonna say is like the the Jared Kushner presentation at Davos So we spend some time on with this kind of Jetsons Dubai Davis centers. Yeah, Davis centers and high rises. How about tents and commercial real estate and and and It it was grotesque at the time, but again to be constructive Why why let him make that presentation at that like stop humoring these people like There's a kind of you know deference to Jared's here. We have to sit attentively while he you know gives us the Jetsons version of Gaza Like it's time for people to start saying no to these people to start calling bullshit on these people to stop I mean if you're the Saudis or Emeraldis or whomever is like invested in Jared How you feeling about that investment now with the war and Iran fucking up your economy like you don't need to pay the sky Like like there's not a requirement you pay him like I know that you know You're doing it to get Trump off your back, but is it working? No, no, it's not and It is not working diplomatically either. I mean the next topic for us is the Russian Ukraine another conflict Trump said He's gonna solve in 24 hours that Jared Kushner and Wyckoff are on the case. They've gotten literally nothing done So later this week then the Russians are gonna hold their annual victory day commemoration that celebrates the defeated Nazi Germany in World War 2 It usually entails this huge military parade of tanks and other weapons, but this year Putin is not going to be displaying kind of major military hardware It could be because you know drone strikes could reach that hardware and hit the parade It could be because and I think Zelensky was speculating that the Russian military just doesn't have enough kit to show off this year So I'm not gonna try Putin proposed a ceasefire for the day of the parade itself. That's obviously a bit cynical In self-serving in response. Zelensky proposed a long-term ceasefire and like a lasting peace deal Don't hold your breath on that getting done But the the casuals estimates are just staggering. So there's a CSIS report from January from like five months ago The estimated Russia had 1.2 million casualties from the start of the war through the end of 2025 Ukraine's casualty estimate was about half of that But again, that was five months ago and every week advances in drone technology make life at the front lines more deadly and hellish So I'm sure the numbers have increased Ukraine has been able to hit targets deeper into Russia than ever before and there's been some really interesting reporting about Descent in Russia and security issues in Russia itself. So in mid-April there was this blogger named Victoria Banya She posted this eight minute 18 minute Instagram video outlining a bunch of concerns and anger at problems in Russia itself And she directed it at Putin and it went super viral. So the the Guardian said it got 26 million views in four days Which is surprising since Instagram is technically banned in Russia as is criticism of Putin really But Banya she complained about flooding oil pollution along the black sea This massive call of livestock in Siberia, which really angered people internet restrictions and the government was forced to respond in a real way Because she was seen as actually a defender of Putin Then there was this fascinating report in the financial times about how Putin is increasingly paranoid and worried about getting killed or assassinated They say you spending more time in bunkers underground security around him as tighter people aren't a lot of phones or internet connected devices near him Some of his staff had security systems installed in their own homes, which that sucks The peace also said Putin is almost entirely focused on the war and foreign affairs And just kind of lets domestic stuff languish So then I think you know we wanted to raise this because it's been a while I don't I personally like feel guilty every week. We don't talk about Ukraine more because the stakes are just as high The death toll is just as horrific But over time there's always just like a new nightmare that we're covering with Gaza or Iran But also there's kind of like an undertone in these reports that maybe Putin is losing his grip on Russian society the polling is going down We're sitting in LA. I have no idea how strong or weak Putin's grip on power is but I don't know maybe it's wish-casting, but maybe there is a sense that The Russian economy can't just sustain this level of fighting casualties For this long, but I don't know. What'd you make of these these reports? I think they're really interesting and we should just say I mean for the Ukrainians it sucks. They're just this grinding frontline and this casualty Levels is just Beyond the immediate human toll like the how that country gets out of this situation and Is viable in terms of rebuilding gets harder with each passing month a year on the Putin piece, you know He's never as weak as the wish-casting Sometimes suggests right so back in you know 2023 when I was like, oh Putin's gonna fall and their new Ukrainians are counter-offensive It's gonna be victory and they're gonna take back Crimea like that was serious wish-casting But at the same time a lot of the issues in this war are are ones that we're going to get worse. with time for Putin. So for instance, like people from the front, like going, I mean, if you look at the Soviet war, like in Afghanistan, it took years for that war to start to eat away at like Russian society because guys are coming home, they're disabled, their alcoholism rates are going up, like it's, you know, the people are, you know, like the, literally the workforce is being hard. So if you look at Russia today, for instance, like, yes, they've been able to create a war economy that can employ people and artificially, you know, boost growth rates and they can manipulate oil prices, they benefit from the war because the price of oil goes up so they get a little more revenue. But at the end of the day, they're spending an extraordinary money on this, they're losing an extraordinary amount of people, the people that are coming out as a war and going home are probably not, you know, okay. So towns, small cities are starting to probably feel, you know, it takes two, three, four, five years. That's how long this war has been, by the way. The Ukrainian strategy of striking these targets like deep into Russia is pretty smart because it's bringing the war home to certain places. It may actually be causing like, you know, demonstrable damage. And they're hitting energy infrastructure and the source of revenue. And the repression, you know, like, we make a mistake sometimes of, it's like, and maybe we should know because now we live in a version of authoritarianism that like, it's a spectrum. So just because Putin's always been repressive, doesn't mean it can't get worse. And it's clearly gotten worse. I mean, a loan is pointed at us repeatedly that like these internet restrictions, like that fucks up people's lives. They can't call people. People want to be online. People want to be in touch with their family. People want to be in touch with, so many Russians are out of the country and they can't be in touch with their family. Businesses rely on the internet. So I do think that they're, they're, you know, Putin is not as strong as some people project or as weak, but they're, these cracks are starting to show and it might take time. But at a certain point, the bill's going to come due for this war. Yeah. And there's been some interesting reporting about Putin, like, trying to erase even Soviet history, you know, the strike me as a particularly, I mean, it's an authoritarian move. It's not the strongest move. There's also a bit of a bunch of reporting about Russian entities, these like kind of fake businesses that could set up recruiting men from Africa and telling them they can come work at some private security job and sending these Kenyan men to the front lines just to be cannon fodder and it's horrible stuff. Also, though, just back on the negotiating fronts, I mean, I think the last trilateral talks were in February. And I saw, I think I read somewhere that Wichoff and Jared Kushner, they've been to Russia a bunch of times, right? They'll meet with Putin whenever they can. I don't think they've ever been to Ukraine. And the question is, why? You wouldn't go one time to meet with the people, to see the place, to understand the issues. So, first of all, two things, noticeably, that meeting was before the war on. So another casualty of this war is that there's just no attention on Ukraine. I don't have inside information. I have to do all the caveats that we don't know for sure. They wanted to real estate deals or mineral deals in Russia. That's why they're there. They don't care if it's shit about the Ukrainians. They see a bananze on the back end of this war being solved. Jared and Wichoff, I think, wanted to do deals in Russia. I don't, why might I surmise that? One, the guy that Putin started sending to the talks is the head of the sovereign wealth fund. Yeah, that's a big segment. He's not from the foreign ministry, he's from the sovereign wealth fund. Two, in Alaska. He's in Miami, like jet skiing with them all the time. Yeah, ticking around. Two, in Alaska, Putin brought all these people from like these various, we're going to do mineral deals and all this stuff. They clearly want to skip ahead to that step. The problems of the war is going to end first. And three, to your point, why would you not go to the country that's been invaded? Jared and Wichoff's interest in this, I think, had nothing to do with peace and everything to do with making a buck in Russia. And that's fucking disgusting. Yes, yes it is. And there's a great piece. I think of the New York Times magazine this week about kind of the privatization of diplomacy in the way that those two are fusing profit, for example, the Pakistanis did this big crypto deal with the Trump family company. And now, what do you know? No, they're hosting the, you know, talks. Wait, like you and I have laughed on the show about how Trump is always shouting out like the field marshal general in Pakistan is probably like a human rights violator. Yeah, probably. We know what? Yeah. Pretty safe pet. Yeah, pretty safe pet. And calling and by his honorific to fuel marshal, you know, it's like some field marshal. Field marshal. It's like a cool title. He's fucking eyes an hour like a friend. Okay. So final topic. This one comes courtesy of Michael and our team. So enjoy Ben. It's a quiz for you. Pop quiz. Oh, no, this is not like a Tim Miller pop quiz. No, no, no, no. First of all, who was, do you know who our current ambassador to both Switzerland and Lichtenstein is? I have no idea. But if I, I'm going to guess like is it, is it a, is it a Kushner or Woodcoff relative? Let's roll it tape. I'm cool. The United States ambassador to Switzerland and Lichtenstein. I'm delighted to celebrate National Apprenticeship Week. As US ambassador to Switzerland and Lichtenstein, I've seen first hand the tower of apprenticeships. Wow, amazing stuff. I just have one comment first. I know there's maybe the years or decades going to go by and, and Clista Gingrich would look exactly precisely. Brother, that face, they shot into that face. Like, like, we will be dead, you and I, and there will be a video of her in some republic administration in 2075 as ambassador to, you know, Luxembourg or some, you know, fancy European place looking exactly. Yeah, the sheep, she faced tunes with a belt sander. That, by the way, that was Clista Gingrich, former ambassador to the Vatican under Trump 1.0 wife of former speaker, New Gingrich. So, Clista is now representing our interest in Bern. Remember, she is Newt's third wife. So, we met his first wife when he was a teenager. I didn't know this. When she was his high school geometry teacher. Fair enough. I'm a grown-ass, yeah. They can't, it's on my case. Was she a Rothschild? We'll find out. That marriage ended in divorce after his affair with Marianne, who became his second wife. This is Newt. Newt then had an affair with Clista for six years, while he was still married. And he asked his second wife for a divorce shortly after she was diagnosed with MS. So, again, good guy. Clista, I think, is 23 years younger than Newt about the same ages as his daughter. And again, we cannot point out enough that Newt was having this affair while constantly attacking Bill Clinton over the Lewinsky stuff. So, Newt married Clista in 2000, converted to her faith Catholicism in 2009. So, Ben, to honor her. We're just Catholicism standing on these personal impressions. On this, yeah. On this, yeah. Yeah. A little quiz for you. Okay. One, first question. Like Cash Mattel, Clista Gingrich is a noted children's book author. In her seven book series, what animal quote travels through time to discover the pivotal moments that have shaped American history? Is it A, LSC elephant? B, Newt the Narwhal. C, Donald the Dalmatian. D, Liberty the Links. This is, this is actually just as good as Cash the Wizard. What was A again? L, it's the elephant. I'm going to go with the elephant. You nailed it. Yeah. You absolutely nailed it because it's a Republican. I think of all the things to choose. These are, these are actually Republicans before they're Donald. I'm bummed it wasn't Newt the Narwhal. So, the books are apparently written in rhymes. Like, after winning the war, Washington would not become a king. He became our first president, and that's a better thing. Could we please get a dramatic reading of these books by Pete Heggseth? That's a good idea. With a American five hundred. It is fitting. You're right. Question two, Newt Gingrich owed as much as $500,000 to which retailer in the mid-2000s? Was it A, Vineyard Vines? B, Tiffany and Co. C, Radio Shack. D, Rolex. 500,000? 500,000? Because I would say Nude has a taste for the Vineyard Vines, but I'm going to go to Rolex. Yeah. So, it was B, Tiffany. Tiffany and Co. Hard to spend 500 grand at Vines. Very, very hard. That's a lot. That's a lot of white shoe or cement pants. Yeah. We had a clip of this. Apparently, I've even seen this. There's not whole thing. Strike you as stupid. I mean, these are stores. These are stores that have a wide range of things you can buy. She has girlfriends with birthdays. Is that him defending himself in 2000? That's a quick serve here. The fact that this guy was held up is some intellectual. I know. As always, bother me. The bar for these Republicans is so low. Yeah. This is our moral leader in our intellectuals' giant. So, this Tiffany thing came up in his ill-fated presidential campaign in 2012 for the nomination. He also got flack for suspending his campaign to go on a Greek cruise. Do you remember? He was like the frontman? I mean, that was a crazy feel. It was like Romney, St. Rick Santorum at a moment there. Thinking back, I can see why Trump mopped the fucking floor with this guy. Because he came in and he was like, I have a personality in a sense of humor and I'm not a loser. Last question. When leaving a second wife, Marianne, Newt compared Marianne to Callista saying, "I can't handle a insert luxury consumer good right here. Right now, all I want is a less expensive good. You got the formatting here. So I can't handle this luxury thing. I need a less expensive thing." Was it? I can't handle a shaman ultra-soft right now. All I want is a Scott One ply. Was it B? I can't handle a grape who pawned right now. All I want is French's. Was it C? I can't handle a espresso right now. All I want is instant. Was it D? I can't handle a Jaguar. All I want is a Chevrolet. One of those is actually true? Yeah. I mean, I guess I'm going to go D because anyone else is like. Did you crush this quiz? Yeah, Chevrolet. Yeah, I mean, one of the Chevy. That's a bad thing to say to a human being. I mean, you know, you're marrying. I mean, Newt's been employing back seats over the years. I mean, like, so it's close to, well, I backseat windows up this. Yeah. Uh, that was a great quiz. Thank you, Michael, for that. So it happens when you give this guy an hour free time on the show day. Oh, son, we're doing. No, that was good. It was a pretty like dark, angry, you know, yeah, so we needed that. We needed that. It's important to have a little fun with you in here. Uh, okay, we're gonna take a quick break. That's so fun. By the way, isn't that better than the Tim Miller when he's like, you know, asking you the name of the foreign minister of Liechtenstein. Yeah, Tim thinks there are people who seem to think that working in foreign policy meant you worked in geography. No, it's funny. The reason he does it is because George Bush, like, got asked the name of the head pack leader Pakistaners, Musharraf. Yes. And Tim thought that that was a good dumb liberal. Got you thing. But actually, like, I'm not sure that was a dumb question, because Pakistan ended up being like the most important country after 9/11. So yeah, look, I think asking, I think people running for president asking them basic civics question is a good idea. Like, I think, you know, if you asked Donald Trump, like, how many branches of government are there? He would just flunk a lot of these basic questions, and it would have been useful along the way. But yeah, Tim likes to just torture us when we go on the show. Yeah, he does. We're going to take a break. We come back here to hear my conversation with Jason Crow about Iran, about his grilling of Pete Hegsf about Trump moving troops out of Germany. So stick around for that. Pod Save the World is brought to you by Simply Safe. Most traditional security systems on the market lock you into a long term, multi-year contracts with huge cancellation fees. Simply safe is different. They earn your trust by providing 24/7 effective professional monitoring that's actually affordable, and they do it without roping you into long-term contracts. As you guys know, John Lovitz sent up a Simply Safe system all by himself. All by himself. Easy to do. Top of the line sensors. You turn it on and off from your phone, kept him safe, kept pundit safe, kept everyone his life safe. That's why they call it Simply Safe. Simply safe. It's more than just a security camera. It's a lifestyle. It's a comprehensive system of sensors that indoor outdoor cameras that protect you against intruders, fires, floods, annoying people. Your system is a fully customizable system to fit your exact needs. It's fast and easy to set up on your own. No drilling is required. No waiting around for tech fish to show up. The app-guided insulation walks you through the process. You can get your system armed in less than an hour. Well, it was like, wait, no drilling. No drilling. That's promised drilling. Simply Safe is backed by 24/7 professional monitoring agents who dispatch emergency help when you need it. Over 5 million people value and trust Simply Safe with their home security every day. Right now our listeners will get 50% off a new system when you sign up for professional monitoring in your first month as free by visiting SimplySafe.com/CricketWorld. That's half off. It's SimplySafe.com/CricketWorld. There's no safe, like Simply Safe. My guest today represents Colorado's sixth congressional district. He serves on the House Armed Services Committee, the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, and many other august committees. Jason Crowe, great to see you again. Tommy, thanks for having me back. So the war powers resolution, the law, establishes this 60-day deadline after which a president has to stop the use of armed forces in a conflict or else get congressional approval. Trump's war with Iran hit that 60-day deadline last week last Friday. But the Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, he argued and ascended hearing that because of the ceasefire, the clock stops. The 60 days is not up and they don't need Congress to act. We should all just note that since that spin, the U.S. and Ron have been shooting at each other and this rate of form moves with the U.S. sinking a number of Iranian boats earlier this week with helicopters, I believe. What did you make of Hegseth's claim? Well, can we actually just. There's an important step missing here. The 60-day clock is determined on the war powers act, which is determined on it there being imminent threat. There has to be an imminent threat and then under an imminent threat, then they have 60 days and then there's an additional 30 days to conduct the troop withdrawal beyond the 60 days. But they never showed the imminent threat. It's all about much to do about the 60-day thing. We never met the initial threshold, which requires there either be. There's only two ways a president can take our troops to war. One is if there's an imminent threat, in which case they have the 60 days, which they never showed, or there's an AUMF by Congress. Neither of those things are true. So this whole thing from the beginning has been unlawful and without authorization, but more importantly, without actually the consent of the American people, which is really what this is all about. So you're right about that context. It's important. But I guess associated with that, wouldn't this new military operation, this guide mission for boats in the strait or who moves project freedom? Would that also require congressional authorization? Yeah, it would. Well, there are so many things going on here. One is the initial attack on Iran, which required imminent threat or a congressional AUMF of some sort. The second is an ongoing naval blockade. I mean, international law and the law of war is very, very clear. A naval blockade and stopping ships from coming in and out of ports is a very clear act of war. Right? And then you add on top of it, headsets claim that somehow a ceasefire tolls the 60 days. There's zero president for that assertion. Not to mention the fact that there actually is conflict going on right now. In the last 24 hours, there have been numerous exchanges of fire between the United States and Iranian forces or proxy forces. So the whole thing is a mess. It's convoluted. They keep on evolving and changing their definitions, their legal basis for it, which of course is just power for the course of this administration, much like the operations going on in the Caribbean, which use circular legal reasoning to justify. They always say that there isn't an armed conflict. It falls just short of an armed conflict level. But they have to use the military because it is an international armed conflict. So they want to have their cake and eat it, too. So what does Congress do about it? That's the big question here. Like, how can you guys exert some pressure on the administration to change course, to follow the law, to follow the constitution, or whatever? Yeah. But Congress has the power. This is less the story of Donald Trump or any president for that matter. And I'm always really clear that this isn't just something that Donald Trump has abused. This has been abused by multiple presidents, Democrat and Republican, and multiple Congresses have allowed it, Democrat and Republican. This is a 20 year problem in the making. And Congress tomorrow could fix it. We have the authority, constitutional authority. And we can walk in to the House floor. We could take a vote and take that power back tomorrow. Right. So that's what this is about. This is about Congress giving up its power and seeding its constitutional authority. But more importantly, it's constitutional duty. This is more about duty than it is about authority. It's our job for God's sakes to actually take these votes and to be held accountable and to appropriate the money or not appropriate the money for all of these things. Because the framers knew that presidents will take all the power they're given and use all the power they're given. That the accountability loop is in members of Congress that have to go home to their districts every weekend, every week, and stand up in front of their constituents and be held accountable for it. So that's ultimately the fix. And this should be the most bipartisan thing in America right now is Congress because it's been abused by both sides over the years. And because Americans of all stripes, Democrat, Republican, and independent want it over. They want no part in this. And they want it to be ended. The other sort of way you guys can get some accountability or oversight is through hearings. There were some hearings last week. You had this extended exchange with Pete Hexeth, about a guy named Tim Parlatory who is Pete Hexeth's private attorney. He was then appointed to a Pentagon job. You pressed Pistol Pete on a parliamentary security clearance. You asked him about his foreign clients. He's still in private law practice. Can you explain why you were so focused on this one individual and what you learned in that exchange and how we act on it? Yeah, my singular goal right now is to get Pete Hexeth fired. He is such an extreme danger to our service members, the men and women who I love, who I've served with, who I have a deep affection that come from my district, come from districts around this country. There are people's sons and daughters, brothers and sisters, mothers and fathers. And he is putting these folks at such extreme risk because of his not just his incompetence, but his cavalier attitude and his unwillingness to actually do the right thing and to run the department of defense the way that it needs to be run. So I want this guy gone, which is why I chose a very different approach than I've ever chosen before. I was speaking largely to Donald Trump into the White House when I was questioning. And I was pointing out that in Pete Hexeth, you have a man who publicly professes unfaltering loyalty to the president, you know, kisses his ring, kisses his ass every chance he gets. And yet behind the scenes, he's hiring people who Donald Trump despises, who Donald Trump has called a lawyer, a lawyer, who has fired from his legal team, and you know, basically building a fiefdom with these Hexeth Loyalists and and and at the same time, the extreme corruption of Pete Hagseth putting in all these people in place who are making money off of their positions, very, very purposefully and intentionally. So that's what I was drawing attention to. - There's also been some reporting that Hagseth is increasingly isolated that he's paranoid about getting fired, that he brings his wife to official meetings that his closest advisors are at this little circle, like Tim Parletori, Pete Hagseth's brother, this guy, Ricky Burya, who is like a military aid under Biden who stayed on, is sort of, I think, risen to much higher heights. And that Hagseth is preoccupied with stuff like the Pentagon's chaplain services and not managing the massive workforce. I mean, are you hearing similar things from context you talked to within the Department of Defense? - Yeah, absolutely. I'm hearing a variety of different things. One strand of things I'm hearing is about the culture of fear and intimidation and retribution. But if you're a senior military officer, you can't give your honest advice to the civilian leadership. Yeah, you have to show loyalty. Now, how dangerous is that? We're conducting military operations in dozens of places around the world. And our senior military officers don't feel empowered to say if there's something wrong or to dissent. I mean, that is so deeply dangerous. That kind of proves my earlier point. So I'm hearing that. We're hearing rumors that this parliamentary has to be hired by senior officers to get promoted. That they have to basically pay the skies, which is part of my questioning. So we need to drill down into that. - So if I want to go from a two-star general to a three-star, I have to hire this random lawyer to get a promotion to do well. - Yeah, that's what we're hearing. And that's why I questioned Hagseth about parliamentary. And those are the rumors that we're hearing from a lot of different places. And what's crazy is that that wouldn't actually surprise me if it were true. - Yeah. - Paying that, I mean, that's part and parcel to this administration. It's happening administration-wide in so many different ways. This paid-a-play politics and it's seeped into, well, actually seeping isn't the wrong work, 'cause that's passive. It's been implemented by Hagseth and people around him. To put it in terms, Pete might understand, he's shocked on it, so it's down the hatch. - He would understand that. - He would understand that, yeah, I bet he'd funneled it. The administration said the cost of Operation Epic Fury, the war with Iran is $25 billion. I've seen news outlets estimate that it's much higher. I think CNN said 40 to 50 CBS said closer to 50 billion. What do you think? Did you buy that $25 billion number? - Yeah, there's no way that's true. There's no, well, first of all, even if that's true, that's a lot of frickin' money, right? We have people losing healthcare by the millions. I was just on a round table yesterday with some young folks in my district and it was all about healthcare. They're like, my healthcare has gone up, they're not paying $2,000 a month for premiums, with a $6,000 deductible and a 20% copay, right? And they're like, you can't afford that, right? So even if it's $25 billion, which it's not, it's a multiple of that, two times, three times, and before times, it's much higher than that. That is a lot of money, right? We have expended vast amounts of our most exquisite high-end munitions and our stockpiles. There's been tremendous damage done to our infrastructure throughout the Middle East. Let's not forget that a lot of these drones, a lot of these missiles actually have hit infrastructure, defense infrastructure in our bases. It's gonna have to be rebuilt. So it's cost a lot of money and it continues to cost a lot of money. This blockade is not cheap either. So that's kind of the biggest point here. Not only are our service members at great risk and we've lost 13 of them, over 300 had been wounded, but Americans are paying tens of billions of dollars for a war that's gonna end poorly yet again without achieving a strategic goal and they're fed up with it and they should be. - And like, obviously they're trying to claim that this new guiding operation through the strata who moves is actually a separate thing with the different name, but it's obviously, it's all just part and parcel of the Iran war. How would you designate the cost of that to the war effort? I mean, I think they said like a bunch of guided missile destroyers are gonna stay in the region over 100 air assets, 15,000 troops. Presumably that is an enormous cost that keeping all those individuals in theater that would continue to add up every day, right? - Yeah, this is a kind of smoke in mirrors, budgeting tactic that they have been using where they say it's really not costing us extra. Well, and the rationale is it goes something like this that hey, we have these ships anyhow and hey, they have to be somewhere doing something anyway. And we're paying these service members every month anyway. So let's just take all those normal, it's called O&M funding operations and maintenance and we'll just move that money over into this contingency operation, this planning and we'll call it a wash. It doesn't work that way, right? - Right, actually doing this comes at some cost. So instead of training, instead of being back in their families, instead of that maintenance that has to be done instead of the modernization that has to be done, instead of all that the multilateral training exercises that we would normally be doing with our allies in other places in the world, we're doing this, right? There's an opportunity cost to it. And our point is tell us what that is costing, right? And is costing extra because like I said earlier, if you're shooting off munitions in a stock pile and if you're taking damage, that actually is a fixed capital cost. So I'm kind of done and frankly, we did this under our act in Afghanistan too for decades. They did the same thing, other administrations, they think that the O&M and they count it as part of the contingency. So I've been battling that for a long time now. In Americans and taxpayers deserve to know what these operations are really costing and how much more it's costing. So that's what we're trying to drill down on. - Yeah, it seems like the bare minimum information they should owe us. Finally, President Trump is planning to pull 5,000 troops out of Germany. This is in response to criticism of the war in Iran from Chancellor Merz, the leader of Germany. What do you think the impact of that move is or will be and are you concerned about it? - Yeah, I am concerned about it and I'm not presumptively against troop movements. A commander in chief should have flexibility to move troops around to respond to needs, to respond to crises. That is kind of part of the authorization that a commander in chief normally has. When it becomes our business is when the commander in chief is doing it out of an emotional meltdown or to enact some kind of retribution or vengeance on a political opponent or a foreign leader because he's upset. Then it becomes my business, right? Because he's abusing our military and their families that need to have some sense for how to live their life. He's using taxpayer dollars to do that, right? So that is the important distinction. The reason why becomes important, because if it becomes a reason that's not acceptable and not in a normal course of being the commander in chief, then its congress is job to say, okay, this is a problem and we're not gonna use taxpayer dollars to do it. We're not gonna mess around with our military and our military family's time and money and we also have to make sure it's in the best interest of our national security because there is the largest land war in Europe, happening right now, between Russia and Ukraine and having a troop presence there is really important to make sure that we're sending the right message against Putin that we are affirming our commitment to NATO. So that's why we're trying to invoke a legal provision that we actually put into the defense bill on a bipartisan basis last year that says you can't move troops beyond a threshold level unless you have met certain criteria to do so. - And so in this case, we're talking about Trump trying to move troops from Germany because of specific comments, but he's also threatened to punish NATO in other ways like poll troops or even bases out of Spain because they won't participate in the war. Is he any close to actually taking those steps? Because you know, my understanding is we don't have troops in Spain just for the hell of it. It's because, you know, that geography provides some important capability to the United States military. I mean, I remember talking about basing in troops and airplanes and air assets in Spain and Italy a lot during the Benghazi attacks and the fallout from that because that would have been sort of the closest team to get to that site on September 11th and actually try to rescue those individuals. But so just move, it's not like you can just move them around like chess pieces, you can just move a bunch of troops from Spain to like Eastern Europe and not have an impact on your ability to fight wars. But is that even being discussed with Congress or is this stuff gonna happen? - Yeah, well, it's not being discussed with Congress in the way that it should. I mean, this administration is violating a bunch of laws or potentially violating a bunch of laws in the case of the troop levels. Like for example, like they haven't provided, there's a statutory provision in the defense bill that says they have to provide what's called an X-Ord and execution order, which is the order that starts contingency operations. They have to legally provide every X-Ord to the Armed Services Committee and they have it, right, for a year, right, so they're violating that. But the true movement thing is an important point. I had an exchange with one of the senior deputy defense secretaries a couple of months ago where he was trying to justify the movement of troops of Europe and what they said was we're going to take troops out of Europe and we're going to move them back to the United States so that we can train more. We can actually train better. And I'm like, well, let me understand this. You're going to actually take troops away from the places where we actually have training grounds, some of the best training grounds in the world in Europe, where they actually train with our allies because they're co-located with them, where we can conduct exercises and we train moving troops around Europe because movement of forces on rail lines, on highways and learning how to do that throughout Europe is essential. You're going to take them away from there. We're going to move them back to the United States and then to actually train them, we're going to have to temporarily ship them back there. And actually do the same training that they normally do, but now we're going to have to move them back to Europe and incur that additional cost. And he's like, yeah, that's our plan. So the whole thing makes no sense. It's more expensive. It's less efficient. It's actually worse training and all being footed by the American taxpayer and the commonality to all of this, all because of Donald Trump wanting to send a message and he's pissed at NATO or certain leaders. I mean, that is the reason behind so much of what's going on. Well, that seems very stupid. Well, what Congressman Crowe, thank you very much for joining the show today and trying to hold these goobers accountable. If you learn more about whatever Tim Parliamentary is doing or TagSat or anybody else, please come back and fill us in because it's a bit of a mystery over here and we'd love to get more information. Yeah, thanks for having me back. Thanks again to Congressman Crowe for doing the show and prepare our own quiz for Tim Miller next weekend. Talk to you soon, Pause the world is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Alonam and Kofsky, Michael Goldsmith and Inesha Bonnergy. Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Heffkoat, Jordan Cantor, Kenny Moffitt, David Tolls and Ryan Young. Our staff is proudly unionized with the writers killed of America East.