Buffalo Bills 2026 Season Preview: Roster, Schedule, and Win Total Breakdown

[Music] Welcome to the acclaimed podcast The Deep Dive featuring your esteemed hosts Andy Monitor and Drew Dinsick, powered by Betz-Bertz. Welcome to The Deep Dive, most likely team to win the AFC East for now is the Buffalo Bills. The reason that they are at the top of the standings comes down to one man. Josh Allen is a man that we all believe in as a no-doubt top three quarterback in the NFL, maybe a top one. And his singular presence on this team, Buys them to a top five team rating and a 50/50 chance to 55% chance to win the division and 80 ishe percent chance to go to the playoffs. Something happens to Josh Allen. Things get weird. All hope is lost. Two through 52 on this roster qualifies as a top 25 team, I think, but not by a lot. Yeah, he's pretty good. And that's why he's on the thumbnail. And let's start by doing a quick recap of last year where they had pretty good record, 12 and 5, didn't sniff the division at the end though, lost it by two games. Pretty good record, but it was good enough lost in the division around 70 years. Did you have some AFCs tickets, big numbers for them that do you want to hear? Do you want to hear something messed up? Yeah, what? Somebody, because I forgot to like announce that we're doing this later. Somebody in the Discord ass, hey are you guys going to do show? I'm a hell of a doom. We'll do two in a row tonight at five. We'll do the Patriots and we'll do the bills. And someone said you should take a 13 second break in between them. I said that's that's hurtful. That's mean that's the theme is we got rid of the head coach. Despite, do you know what his record was? Do I mean give you percentages or guess at the actual win loss? I will tell you how many games he made regular season 148 games. Okay. How many guess he was 101 and 47? You were so close. 98 and 50. 98 and 50 is the thing. That's a really good record. You know what his playoff record was? Oh man. 16 or nine for nine for oh 16 years of four and 12. Eight and eight. How many do you go for 12? I remember them winning a lot of playoff games. I don't think he coached that. He beat the shit out of the Patriots and Dill Bell check one year. He beat the Ravens. Yeah, okay. I mean they're coming back to me now. They had a win this year. They beat the Jags in the wildcard round. Yeah, it was an impressive one. It was really impressive. In the divisional round the eighth playoff exit for Andy. The tournament was fired. We don't need to do much of an autopsy here, but they found a new way to lose in the playoffs at least. That was fun. That was fun. What was do you. I guess a wild game. I guess with with extended time to reflect on it. I think it's a good one. Right call. No. We got job. The build that he's up. Okay. Based on the results. No, but. I don't know that Sean McDermott is doing anything right now. Let me let me double check that. I don't think he. Thailand. Thailand probably. Yeah, I don't think he's a Thailand guy. I don't know if he's. So on, but. Yeah, he was let go and. Is he. would compete in the Middle East, vacationing and heading. 2023 season, 2024 season, 2025 season, coaching tree, 911 controversy, personal life. He's out of the league. We don't need to recover him. He wasn't character. I think the big indictment for McDermott was clearly like, it became clear that once the defense got older and slower and less able to execute his vision, it was obvious to answer and ask question. What exactly do you do here? What exactly are you bringing to the table? Like at some point, a lot of middling coaches who are paired with elite quarterbacks run into this problem. It's like, yeah, you've been great. You've brought us to the playoffs a bunch of times, buddy. And you have a very good overall record. But at this point, it's the Ninja Turtles meme where he was carrying that team. He was splinter and the baby turtles were Josh Allen. He was bringing that defense along. And now it's just Josh Allen and what they've done outside of his defensive prowess that has made this team move over the last few years. Yeah, what are you bringing? Because it's weird. We had a lot of this over the last couple of years. It's like, this was a 10 year well thought of coach and time to move on, buddy. Yeah. Charles with the great idea, he could be a culture changer for the Jets next year, Andy. He could help him change that culture. A world where John Harba and Sean McDermott are the two coaches in New York is almost too funny to actually happen, right? Yeah, I don't want that. I don't. Have you been to Thailand? Anyone could be a Thailand guy. Yeah, that's what I was going to travel that way. Southeast Asia looks cool. There's a lot of beaches. Vietnam is just one big beach man. And travel. Yeah. And I do like the suit for countries that from that's Vietnam, right? Yeah. Yes. I digress. The bill. Sean McDermott ultimately pays the price for the bills failing in the playoffs. Oh, Jen, I'll be at this time. It was because of a very questionable interception. Yeah. Apparently, Thai goes to the home team. Don't put yourself in that position. The one of the problems with that interception Andy, you remember who the target was? I don't think it was Brandon Cux. You know what the problem is? The target was the target was Brandon Cux. We mentioned this. If you haven't been with us live for the last hour and a half, where I was talking about these two teams of Patriots and the bills that we're talking about today, kind of have had the same cause, the same quandary for a bit. We're like, do we have a wide receiver one? And often it's like, maybe. And then the answer is usually no, actually, you didn't. And when they go to the season, like we don't, we do not have a wide receiver one. They are correct usually. And the bills have struggled with finding that guy that can really nail it down. And they didn't answer the question as well as Patriots, but they're trying. Well, try to think. So here's the thing, Andy. Brandon Cux was targeted six times in that game. Six. Brandon Cux, who is correct me if I'm wrong, out of the league. He is a double check. Yeah, Brandon Cux, currently not on an ethel roster. Your playoff hopes relied on him making a very difficult catch with a perfectly thrown ball on the road against a lead pass defense. That to me is more of an indictment as far as the team build being the problem in Buffalo, more so than whatever McDermott was or wasn't doing as the head coach. I was, yeah, I'm not like here to fight that he should have had another crack at the United Bay at the Apple. I just think it's pretty wild that the roster build was a huge part of the problem last year. And it was easy and obvious for many of us to see except for one person who didn't see it as a problem. And that was the guy that signs the checks. The guy that signs the check. Brandon Bean. Brandon Bean. I know. He calls Shane Brandon Bean. Yeah, Shane and Bean. But yeah, you know, it's similar between Joe Shane and Brandon Bean Andy. Not only are they both from the Buffalo tree. They both got lucrative extensions this off season for jobs marginally well done. If not, job done. Job done. Job done. Job done. So well crossed out. So Bean, I think, has wrestled control over the situation in Buffalo in a way that's not good. And I think this matters. He has, it felt like the process to replace. McDermott was poorly executed. I'm not saying that I know who the perfect candidate was and they should have gone and hired this guy and they didn't. It just felt like elevating Brady was like very lukewarm soup. And Brady maybe is more of a bean guy in terms of he will just do what is asked and this guy. Yeah, I'm torn here because I've been a Brady guy when there was the first who's the first firing with Tennessee. Joe Brady Carolina. He was the Oc and no, no, no, who's the first firing of the season? Oh, because he didn't know the rules of football. Did not know the rules of football. That was a problem for the job he held. Yeah, I was kind of stumping for like young quarterback, some pieces that I don't hate. I'd like to kind of see Joe Brady going to shout at coaching and I like Joe Brady moving into a role like that. But yeah, at the same time when they did it in Buffalo, it's just like, yeah, like it's just he's already here. What are you what are you gaining by this? He's going to call plays still. So now you just have the same offensive coordinator. You got rid of McDermott, I guess. And it does harken back to something we said back last year. What does head coach exist anymore? You almost need offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator at the highest positions. And then there's just they are they are the buck stops there for the offense and the defense. And there's just some third guy that's making like analytical decisions to help him out or like you know the Oc decides if you're pun. So it's weird because you already had if you already had Brady there. You're getting a different guy calling the defense, I suppose. But at times that was you know, that's a shared duty anyway. I guess I don't know where what the thought process was like, how does this make us that much better going forward. Despite me being a Brady. Okay. All right. Well, Brandon Bean holds near total control over football operations for the Buffalo bills. He is Pagula's chosen vessel for running this franchise. They're opening a new stadium in Buffalo. What's your park still about that? Do we still get the call to our trip? I got a little bit up. But but the you know the key thing is Brady feels like a stooge to me. He feels like he's going to do whatever being asked as far as handling the roster. He feels like he's going to do whatever Josh Alain wants as far as running the offense. I don't know that his you know he he doesn't represent to me a strong leader who is going to get more out of the pieces. Some of the parts which is what Buffalo needs right now because some of the parts outside of Josh Alain does not look good. And you can probably make a decent case that Jim Leonard was a fair hire as a defensive coordinator who could get. You know kind of you kind of prove himself on the job with these you know with these players to give you an above average defense. I don't know that Pete Carmichael Jr has a fastball at this point in terms of his ability to shape an offense to compliment Joe Brady. I was wondering what the what the thought process is and like what the process is when you're hiring an OC. To replace your OC who's the head coach now who's still going to call plays. It's like hey we need it we need an offensive coordinator. It's like at that point that one really feels like it just promotes somebody just promotes somebody that and go find someone who's really specialized in being a really good receivers coach. If you're bringing up an OC that's not actually calling plays. They didn't bring it they didn't bring in Carmichael he was you know we jumped about the man that we weren't super sure existed even though he was with the Saints for a good spell there I think. That was Pete Carmichael Jr right we're not confusing. Okay this isn't a this isn't a a case of. I think this is yeah this should be the Saints guy. The car muckle genius yeah he's he's he's the right boy that you're 54. The new defensive coordinator is new to this level football he is the ex with defensive coordinator from the Wisconsin badgers. There's special teams coaches from Arizona Jeff Rogers and you bring it in. Who apparently I didn't know this guy was still working really John Fox is on this roster. Stop it. I swear to God I have this in my notes John Fox. The he is a senior assistant is 71 I wouldn't know he is absolutely on this roster as I have as a coach he has not coached for three years his last job in the league was okay. So Andy early results of of the Joe Brady era early results of the Joe Brady are in for me he's failing. This is not good. This is not good. I mean I'm a suspending disbelief on Jim Leonard for now but I don't do not love the direction of this franchise in terms of. It's this is so qualitative I'm sorry to go here even but what was the kind of ongoing narrative for the Buffalo bills for the last two maybe three years. Getting over the playoff home right window closed yeah yeah yeah you know what's what is if you're like the if you're if you're if you have your fingerprints on a team and you're like. I don't think our window is closed but we still have a quarterback in his prime who's best in the league potentially. Like what. This is not what you do it's not this is not the shot in the arm this is not the way you re inject a little bit of momentum the way you re inject a little bit of this excitement you don't elevate your offensive coordinator who's you know who's a little bit of a kissass and let him hire John Fox. And Pete Carmichael junior sorry like maybe these guys do a great job this year and I look like an idiot fine but no this is this this feels. This feels wrong. As far as a way to stop the perception that your window has closed. It's it's always tough to really judge this without knowing the inner machinations of how things are going to work out but from an outsider's point of view. I think it just doesn't inspire a ton of confidence the whole hiring cycles slash what they did. Move on to the roster. And you know effective ways to solve them. Oh, you know what's a good you know who's a good fit for helping just reignite chemistry in your lost locker room. CJGJ well played Brandon B and he'll be immediate chemistry in your locker room. Did you see by the way the CJGJ popped his head up today that say that Jalen hurts should be the number one player and the whatever stupid countdown is going on the NFL. Yeah, I guess he hasn't met Josh on yet. But no the issues with this team were pretty straightforward I thought last year. You had a lot sided skill group which was tilted in favor of your running backs and wide your running backs and tight ends your wide receiver room was incomplete if we're being kind. You continued to try to make key on Coleman happen which looks very clear and obvious early on was not a thing. And you know you're going to be able to bring in DJ more as your wide receiver one you trade for him which I honestly feel like you've got you helped Chicago solve a problem. Which is never really the way you don't want to be on the side of a trade where you are helping the other team solve a problem. That's usually not a good trade. I thought that the you know the little bit of loss on the offensive line losing one of the best guards in football letting him walk out the door in what's his name. Wow, wow, wow, I'm blanking. God damn it, you know what I'm talking about. I'm going to close my notes because I was on a role. Anyway, they are down a guard that they now have to backfill. You retain a couple of older offensive lineman. You retain your center. Yeah Edwards. Thank you. Okay. David Edwards in the head. Thank you. There was another one. Tackle the plate a little bit that they lost also much to risky. Oh, kind of back up now. We up. We up. We up. But yeah, the offseason was, the Chubb, CJGJ, the Chino Stone. Oh yeah, thank you for thanking the Tom and also. I mean, the Chino Stone does make sense. I do want to talk a little bit about it. And Bernie brings us up in the chat. We didn't give Leonard enough, I guess, shine maybe, fan to mark. Yeah, there you go. And I was going to mention this, the offensive line coach is now turning over. But he is a first time DC in the NFL, but he has been a defensive coordinator at Power 5 school. And he did come from a couple of years as Denver. So he was with the Denver Broncos as like a passing game defensive coordinator, whatever you want to say. He had a couple different roles there of the last couple of years. So he comes from a good defense, but as you know, Bernie's pointing out switching systems with a defense that has a lot of leftovers from last year and then bringing in some questionable pieces. It could be kind of messy this start. We'll see, apparently, we're going to see a lot of, you know, we, how we mentioned, and guess what, nickel is based now. Some of these coaches who like to play the three safeties, dime is based. So you might, you might see a pretty light, fast defense. I don't know. It'll be interesting to see on this. So that's one of my things I wrote down was trying to figure out exactly what this defense is going to look like as we go through the camp. It's going to be, it's going to be a multi front scheme. Three, four hybrid defense, a lot of defensive backs on the field, which means they're going to have to get really strong. The reason that a system like that, it's, it's, it's a little Mike McDonald desk in terms of the way it's conceived. Except you have geno stone and that wither stone. Thank you. And you have, and you have, I mean, like eight at all over, he could be a guy. Yes, I agree. Jion Walker, probably not a guy. Like, you know, I think, I think you kind of need an elite three on the line. If you're going to be able to pull this off. And I don't know that they have that because you're going to, you're going to be light and fast in the, in the secondary. Exactly. Exactly. You got to have a good, your first two levels have to stop the run and you have to get to have a good pass rush. And, you know, we were mentioning people coming in. You didn't have a first round pick because it went to another team in a trade. How do you feel about said trade? Didn't love overpaid. What do you think? No, that was your second round pick went to Chicago, correct? Yeah, the second round pick went to, yeah, that was the, the, you're talking about the blockbuster move for DJ more. Yeah, you gave up, you overpaid for her, helping someone else solve a problem. I really, I don't know. Didn't love. The, what do you call it? The defense to me, personal wise, is a lot of guys who I don't, I mean, I, I like it all, but as a player, a lot. I have questions about everybody else in the front seven, specifically questions about them being able to fulfill the roles you're asking about. And then, yeah, on the back end of this year, accounting on CGA, G and G, you know, stone to do, you know, a heck of a lot of heavy lifting for a unit that, you know, like we're probably going to see a lot of these young guys kicked in at some point to see if they can play and do what those being asked if this is what they expect to run. I don't know, man, yet, you get a person else does not seem to fit. Second year corner and hair stand from Kentucky, unproven. Yet we're so whose ascending job coming in at Oliver. I think we all believe is very good Bernard's very good then from there on out, it's a lot of. Boy, I hope the safety's play well. Well, honestly, that line, TJ Sanders and Dianne Walker, yeah, Walker, premier roles on your, on your defense and both these guys was a second and fourth round pick from last year, who created as. I guess these guys can play, I don't know, I don't have a strong conviction that, you know, that you have the answers with the personnel that you're putting out there on the defensive line personally looking back at my grades from last year, like, but Joey Bosa produced was pretty meaningful. You've lost that and replacing it with Chubb. That's very lateral. Dianne Walker, I graded him well last year, he was a plus player for me. He was a rookie last year. He was a second year guy. I might be grading on a curve because he was a fourth rounder. So, you know, we should be remains to be seen. But, you know, you're elevating, you've lost a Juan Jones, you're elevating a lot of unproven players. TJ Sanders was not a guy that I had rated well last year as a rookie and he was a second round pick. So, yeah, I mean, I think as great of coach and Schema and visionary as Jim Leonard might be. This is now look like the right ingredients to cook the recipe to me. I make these little graphics. I don't like looking at the our lands things for visualization reasons. So, I make like the PFF style where they're just sitting in their positions. Yeah. I make those graphics for myself to help me and because I kept changing this one because of the three safety stuff. So, I have 12 guys on the field, which I'm sure would be pretty tough to beat because I have them in a nickel with, but with an extra safety up there. So, yeah, I'm. Dorian Williams. Yeah, there's there's some spots. The offer is going to be playing probably your nickel your slot guy. Like I said, you got a second year guy in here. Stim. It's. Unproven. I think it's where you were grading in right now and a lot of question marks up front that could could end up being good. But so much turnover and the new DC. It's it's very hard to grade this defense. So, final final grade for me for Brandon being for the offseason for himself. He gets an A plus. He is just sees control over the Buffalo bills with an impromptu. Like he failed up. He failed up effectively or failed into more power. His his job as operations of football. He gets a D for me and the you know, there is a lot of potential with. You know, these moves either not bearing fruit or kind of keeping the status quo, which you know, hey for him and for everybody involved 12 wins, you know, hey, like we're in the playoffs again. We just need to get hot one of these years. We keep getting back in the playoffs. Like it's that's not I want to see Josh Allen win a fucking championship. And this is not a championship roster outside of that player and that's fucking shitty. And so I can't I cannot. You know, I can't give him anything better than a D for the way that this transpired. And I may even pretending like I had the right answers like no player was out there. This guy would have been perfect for this. This coach with Josh Allen holy fucking shit man. You know, like it's not clear to me that there was like a slam dunk here, but it feels like, you know, a healthy serving of more the same for a group of people that was like starting to believe that their window was closed. I like DJ more. I don't love DJ more. I'm going to find the super cut of him quitting on routes that ultimately got picked off of the last. I know I don't do that, but hopefully this reinvigorates him because he has he has a high ceiling and God, it has to be fun to play with Josh Allen. So hopefully he plays well. I don't know. Again, it's very much above average, but not to the level of hey, you wouldn't get a G Brown. As we mentioned, they did a lot of trading here, somebody in the chat mentioned they did wheel deal around a lot. They ended up, they didn't have their own second round pick because of this trade, but they ended up drafting twice in the second round anyway. They got an edge piece and TJ Parker for Clemson. He's probably immediately in pass road rotation because if we have and where he fits in. I use a plug in piece in a front in front that is mostly veteran, not at this point, I guess, me outside and then David. I'm not going to say this guy's name right. Davis in a innocent from my state of corner in the second round where you're, you know, Benford and Harrison, you're. Probably adding him to the depth and the boundaries and having another young piece there if you meet it, but there's not there's not a lot that's like immediately helping this roster, I guess, outside of depth because the next picks were in the fourth round. You made a bunch in the seventh. It's just a bunch of depth pieces on see outside of Parker. The only rookie that I really have marked down as someone who's going to be involved here is that I think the punter they drafted. Who is in a competition with Mitch Wyshnowski. So kind of a. a non-descript draft so far. If you can draft DJ more in the second round, and you knew you were getting DJ more, I guess you take it. All right. Here's the problem in summary. I forget this when we were doing our autopsy of 2025. This is fun. This is. >> I do. >> Those beats guys are saying, we're calling them IGB. I love that for GD. The kids are tired to speculate. He may be outherstant, which doesn't speak well for a lot, but hopefully he plays well. >> You have a good CB one. >> The problem, and I can't believe I forgot this in the autopsy. The bills running defense last year, socks. They were second worst in the NFL after the giants. They never solved that problem, and it affected their offense because you could play Keepoy from Josh Allen. It doesn't seem to me like they have taken that problem seriously. >> I want to push back on the Keepoy a little bit. It's funny because somebody, I think Kelly are tennis friends, but you're wrong, but you're right in a kind of way. He posted stats and the bills were correctly, 31st ranked against the run defense last year. They still led the league in time of possession. Because their run defense wasn't, man, doesn't matter, we can't stop them from getting the first down. They keep getting first down. It's like, oh, we can't stop them from scoring 30 yard touchdowns in the ground. >> It was an extreme problem. >> Yeah, they would immediately get the ball back, but the problem with that is that's worse than playing Keepoy. Because hey, we got the ball back, but also the score changed by seven to the bad. It's maybe worse than just having it for six minutes and kicking. >> I didn't think of that. >> It was, yeah, but that's not great either. They did give up a lot of explosives and they still kind of lack some size upfront. >> Their average drive time was the longest on offense. Did you know that? >> Yeah, I went and looked at up after. >> That's fascinating. >> After he posted that, I'm like, how long were their drives? Yeah, it was on. Here's one other problem. You ready? And then we move under ratings. Would you say it's fair to qualify the philosophy of Joe Brady over the last two years of putting Josh Allen in a little bit of bubble wrap. Only really breaking out the running plays in the high leverage games and the high leverage moments. Is that fair characterization? >> Yeah. >> Protecting him from himself. >> Yes, which is fine. >> And yet he's still got her last year. Broken foot. >> [LAUGH] >> He played through it for the final. >> I know, but should have. >> Third of the season into the playoffs. I know it happens, but I don't think that there is a philosophical switch you flip where you can ensure that Josh Allen is healthy in January. And I think that should be another reason of concern in terms of backing this team long term, in my opinion. Rating is wise. Josh Allen is my top rated quarterback and it's high. I am at 8.9 for the Buffalo Bill's because he's my favorite player in football right now. >> He is an eight for me and he is still the top rated quarterback. >> Okay. >> I did mention this on a previous podcast, but not everyone listened to every podcast. I did start to separate a little bit of the running. I split it out into the skill position group like 50/50. So he's a little lower for that because I consider part of his running as part of my running packs group. >> Okay. >> If that makes any sense, but I mean yes, he's my number one quarterback. >> You can do whatever you want. >> He's still getting it out, so it's here, it's here, power numbers man. >> Yeah. Skill position group for me for Buffalo is a fine. >> I want to say it in those, we're fine with that. >> 5.1 for skill position group, love James Cook, like Dalton Concade. Not a DJ more guy. If you made me go to war with one of these wide receivers, give me Cleo Shikirov or DJ more every day. I think their depth is a problem. I don't know that. I don't know that they handle an injury to James Cook very well. I don't know that they handle a Dalton Concade injury very well. >> Well, we'll just not go on that. >> I don't really do this. >> I am. Yeah, I know he had a moment, but I'm out on them. >> Yeah. >> So for me it's a 5.1 in totality. >> Yeah, Dawson Knox, eight to year now. I'm glad I have to think that sounds about right. I'm higher here, as I mentioned, I've built in a little Josh here, so I'm going to 6.4, which is feeling a little high now that you come at me with a 5.1. As I think I'm higher on DJ Morris, ceiling coming into a new spot, feeling good about it, playing with a better quarterback. He's a genuine number one receiver on the outside. Shikirov is a high-ish floor slot chain mover kind of guy. The rest of it is kind of, but there's a lot of names who've seen a lot of time on the field. I think he got to give him some credit for that. Like Palmer and Hardman and some of these guys. It's not as if we're complete unknowns. They have some experience. As you mentioned, Knox is a little longer in the tooth, but you have concave and he doesn't have to be that guy. Cook is elite. It's thin after that with Ty Johnson Ray Davis and whatnot. So I'm above average and maybe I'm a little higher here. O-line for me is a 5.8. I still have them as above average despite the loss of Edwards. I think the offensive line coach moving on was also a minus for this unit. I think they are hurting one of the strengths of the offense. I think the offensive line had moments last year where I thought they were the best in football and it was not close. And yeah, these guys all year older, Dion Dawkins is on the. He's on the. Oh fuck, what's the guy's name? He's on the lane, Johnson timeline. Yeah. Where they built drafts. He's still a anchor. He's still a great player. But he's getting up there. I don't know that I love some of the younger players you've drafted here to backfill. I definitely don't love the projects you brought in to back up. So yeah, 5.8 for me. My offensive line number is higher than yours again, boy. Maybe I'm betting the bills. I'm still at 6.8 and a lot of it is just. You have a left tackle that's good and not good great. You have a great center. I thought I'd grade it out. Torrance. Oh, Cyrus Torrance, oh Torrance. Just make it up names. Oh Torrance. Oh Cyrus Torrance, I grade it up pretty well. We have the health. I had some questions on Spencer Brown's health. It sounds like he's cleared. My only question mark was left guard where I think we might have a camp battle. Okay. Alexander Stavitt. Yeah, yes. Austin Corbeir. Corbeir. Yeah, I have Anderson and Corbeir, Corbeir like Sorbeir. Sure. Battling it out for the left guard. So yeah, I'm hired here. I have this is a pretty damn good offensive line. I think part of it still is maybe I have hired grades because of the quarterback and how he makes an offensive line look good. Could be overall. The run blocking results, man. Some of it too is just the run blocking results are left. Yeah, one of those guys who's who matters is gone. And also a lot of there with the stuff with scheme, man. The heavy sets they went with, I think, are that there's going to be a pretty healthy amount of opportunity to review exactly what the Buffalo Bills were doing with their heavy sets and people may have some answers this year. We shall see. Offensive percentile for me is a 7.2 point, a 0.72. So that's the second best offense in football as currently graded. Defense. 18th. Just under average for me. Persona wise, 0.473. That is based on a Fugazi number for runstop that I feel like I must be referencing the wrong cell. I looked at that just now. I must be referencing the wrong cell. That's got to be another team. I'm at 4.2, not 5.6. Okay. What the fuck? We will make some adjustments for that. Mike, my task rush is quite a bit higher than you did. I look up somehow. Some of it is your password is your password. I'm at a 6.2. And some of it is just. Oh, that's that's player grades for the addressing duo is plenty. I'm good for two bookend threats and bringing in a rookie to be a nice rotational piece. Some other rotational guys. So it's not one of the highest, obviously, but I have a pretty good grade in this pass rush. I'm down where you are on runstop. I'm a little higher, but I have 4.5. As we mentioned, they were 31st in DVOA against the run. We do get a blend in some of the additions and some of that was an end over problem. What do you play? Three games. That didn't help. Bernard, Milano, missed 5.6 games a piece. The run defense was bad. But it shouldn't have been that bad if they were healthy. And coming in, I'm fine saying, yeah, there are a little light up front. And that's not going to be a good runstop unit. But it's closer to average than it was last year. I'm at a 4.5. And yeah, we'll ignore your 5.7 because that's been handled. And that's not happening. That's not right. Now I was looking up the wrong cells. The coverage for me is a 4.4. So below average again, all of these defensive numbers have scope to go down if it's not singing under Jim Leonard's scheme. Yeah, I was a little worried about this one too. I'm at a 5.4 here. And I think it's really heavily weighted on. Do you have a CB1? I start putting some of my numbers together here. And do you have a solid-- I think you have a solid proven boundary corner. They were 12 to against the past last year. And I want to maybe put an asterisk on that where it's like, yeah, but it's because everybody knew they could just run anyway. It didn't matter where they actually that could against the past. We'll see. Benford graded poorly for me last year. I know, but some of it again, the injuries up front, I still think he's good. I'm leaning on more of his-- this is who I think this person is. Because some of these grades are really tough to use. We have injuries around them. They get put in bad situations. So I have Benford who's very much above average. And some of these safeties aren't terrible. If you put them all together and mix them up, and I think cautiously optimistic that it's a deep enough safety group, and they're going to put enough guys out in the field at the same time that it's just going to be a decent coverage unit. My top three guys from last year in terms of coverage grades for the bills are no longer on the team. It's not good for them. They're going with a pivot here, and we're going to find out if it works. OK. I give them all a bump for firing the tournament as well. I get some numbers. All right. I'm at 18th best defense, but I obviously need to fix my shit. Intangible. So I'm at 3.3. No idea if this guy's going to be a bit above average coach in terms of decision making adjustments, foretounds. So I'm going to start with kind of a 33rd percentile expectation for any special teams is 4.5. And there are the results run stopped for me. Again, it's not correct. Yeah. I basically-- It looks like I basically flipped flopped to run, stopped, and passed rush numbers somehow. Don't know what the hell happened there. And they're weighted the same. So you'd probably come out with a similar number anyway. I'm at a 5.1 for special teams. And I'm at a 4 for coaching. Just-- yeah, it's not as disaster, but because I said I'm a gravy guy, I have to give him some shine, but it doesn't start out as league average. He's never done it. Your overall number is 6.09, which again, your process gets you to a broader-- My process changed. Yeah. --a broader distribution of overall ratings. So we're probably not that far off on a percentile standpoint, but I'm only predicting 3.63. You're at 6.09. The market has this team at 3.89. What is your team's percentile? 64th. I'm at 65.4. So yeah, the way I do power numbers this year is just-- Yeah, you're just-- It's spread out broader. Which is fine. We'll find out. It does put you over market. It keeps me under market, though. So we could do a little side bet on if the bills are going to exceed our underwhelmed expectations. The bills are my number 2 team right now. I have them number 4. As we mentioned, it is the ramps for us. Seahawks. Ravens bills for me. Seahawks are third for me. Who's number 2 for you? Bills. Oh, you just said that. Oh. Yeah. Bills number 2. My number 14. The Denver Broncos. Interesting. That's up there. That's up there. I'm hired in the market on the image well. OK. Let's look at the schedule. I don't think I'm far enough below market to want to take any action against these guys. And I still respect the shit out of them. So it's a little bit of a little weight and sea, which is probably fine. Because the first three, four, sorry, first four weeks of the season, even though they're favored, they are favored under a field goal. So right off the bat, we are getting true tests of their character. They start at the season at the Houston Texans. I don't know if you can remember this, Andy. But Houston Texans tend to feed the Buffalo Bills their lunch. So that is a very, very tricky opener for Buffalo Detroit. I actually love the matchup for the Bills. Even though Detroit's probably going to run for 250 yards on the ground in that game. Buffalo versus the Chargers is a fun one. Certainly, certainly intrigued to find out if we get information there on if the Chargers can go on the road to Buffalo for early start. Oh, that should have a clock on it. They got an early start in-- oh, the clock's on the Chargers side, my bad. Chargers get an early start in Buffalo week three, fun to find out if they can compete. And then, yeah, New England Buffalo is going to be a lot of fun. Well, the fun part about this Chargers game to me is just because I dug into this schedule a little bit. The Chargers are playing them in week three. And they will not be tested yet. Because the Chargers have two home games to start the season against the Cardinals and Raiders. Yeah, I agree. And then they do a cross-season trip to play the best quarterback in the league. So it is going to be a fun one if the Chargers look really good against two bad teams. And we get a little bit of a bump on their rating. And then they just get run into a buzz saw on their first road game. So be interesting how that one goes. And then, as you mentioned, Patriots Ram. See, not easy. No, five games were you're favored by under-- or you're a field goal or shorter. To start the season is wild for a Buffalo build team that's rated this high. Raiders start your kind of stretch where you should start to accrue some wins. I think Jay is probably correct here. Give a short week with a Monday to Sunday game where it's at the Rams, at the Vegas Raiders. That feels like a side-to-spot to play out on the list. Oxnard. Hang out at Oxnard. Hang out in San Jose or pick a school. Stanford. No. Low-die. No. Carl's bad. No. I don't know. You got to find a college that'll let you play there. There's a lot of those in LA. They just used them all for the World Cup. All right. Well, I think, yeah, that's a fair guess. This is a hard schedule. I didn't realize how hard it was. Four games? Four games? Maybe five. This is the sixth toughest schedule in football. In contrast, the Baltimore Ravens, who I have similarly rated, have the 28th hardest schedule in football. No restless advantages, at least, only in that one travel wrinkle. But you play a lot of good teams. In fact, you play almost all the good teams. And you play a lot of them on the road. You're playing Houston on the road. You're playing Denver on the road. You're playing-- even Minnesota could be an above average team. You're playing the Rams on the road. And one, if you're doing England games on the road, Green Bay on the road. Who are your top-- Throw in Kansas City at home. You throw in another doing England game. You throw in that Detroit game. Yeah, there's a bunch of tough ones. These are all AFC teams, too. Then you play the NFC North, which is obviously going to be a difficult draw. They're all-- At least decent. They're all at least decent. And then you're playing every good AFC team. You play Houston. Chargers, Patriots twice. Yeah, let me look at that. My top AFC team. Denver. Denver. You play-- that is my top six AFC teams. You have seven games against them. It's like Baltimore, yeah. You know, the only team in my top eight that you don't play as yourself. That is the only AFC team you're not playing. Wow. Wow, wow, wow. How about that? How about that? So I have a high power rating on this team, but they have a tough road to hope. I think this really difficult schedule, especially early, questions about the defense personnel, questions about just the offensive vibes. I think I'm down on these guys this year. I don't think there's a good reason to get involved betting the bills. Not these prices. Maple Money asks, you know, if they're two and three or one and four, you know, is it time to bet on them? The schedule doesn't let up a lot. You got to be feeling like they were close or there are close to something that there are some reason I can't just be bad. That's it. Those are all the tough games. Andy, have you looked at the AFC price recently? All the prices are probably a little short for my liking. What now? Don't pull it off. I looked at earlier. It's like five to one. Plus three seventy seven. I think he should shop around. What the hell? That's a tough hang. There's there. Wow. There is no real reason to stick your neck out at that price. No way. My fair. Let me pull up my fair. AFC percent for me, bus well bills is 13.5. It's like eight to one. 13.43 Andy. That's a lot longer. Oh no, I'm sorry. It's my super bowl price. My bet. Win conference price. Six plus six forty two. I thought you meant 13%. No, I did. Yeah, 13% six forty two. Yeah. No. How tough it is? Christmas standalone game at Denver revenge game. Banger. All of these prime time games are bangers. What's the Thanksgiving night game Buffalo Casey is Thanksgiving night? That's how you get this team on Thanksgiving. You get them on Christmas. You get them in Lambo late in the year. You get the Rams game on Monday night football. You get the Minnesota game on Monday night football. You get a Thursday early season Thursday game. Buffalo Detroit where the totals can be like 54. Everything everything and a weird Saturday. I'm not sure if they're going to be able to play in the Chicago. I must be the lead up because they're playing in Christmas. They have to move them up a day. They have to give them extra day. Yeah. So, you know, outside of like the betting. There's a lot of great standalone games. Seven standalone. I hope this team is good strictly for that reason. Well, it's going to be entertaining either way. Yeah. I'm going to be a must win for them. Casey, New England, Green Bay, Chicago Denver. Fucking murderers row. And they could be like, there's a very, very clearly could be 500 after 11 weeks. I have a bet to make on this team. If you disagree with some of the stuff we're saying or, you know, you agree that this is the best quarterback. This roster has upside. And if you want to bet on this team. You're laying like minus 120 minus 140 minus 150. Where were you to win the division? Minus one 70 to 50. 55. Don't don't do that. You don't want to buy the single in the division. Minus one. Minus 104. But that doesn't include the 5% that they're getting from the shit holes. You don't want to bet the steam doing the division. You just mentioned what the price was to win the AFC. You don't want to bet that. That's a terrible short price on. A team of the tough schedule. If this team. Is good and they over perform and they win a bunch of games. You know, you could say, well, are you saying it maybe the all twin total? Is that what you want to bet? If this team. Overcomes. The New England Patriots takes the division ground back. Winds 13 games. Josh Allen carries this team to. You know, a glory. It's not even Josh Allen MVP because that's short. This guy is. Wade on the board. I think. It's Joe Brady. Joe Brady coach to be. It's going to be. It's going to be a big price and. Yeah. I think that's the long shot on. Hey, the bills overperformed and it may be like this guy. And we'll probably be mad about it. Like this guy isn't doing anything. He's hitting the Josh Allen button. And Josh Allen is winning games 1132 is the price right now. I thought it'd be like 15 18 to one shop around maybe you get some better. I was hoping to be bigger than that. But either way, I think that's a better price than them to when they F.C. Because they don't have to win the F.C. They just win like 13 games and win the division. And. At even money. Jesus give me a big price on. Brady to pay. Look at these. He's reinvigorated the locker room. I've never seen Josh Allen so happy in interviews and. He really tealed tell this team's rallying around the sky and it's just. It's just. I can. Josh Allen toiling behind the scenes carrying this team on his back. So I think that's a fun one. 15 15 to one on Fandall. What's a nice longer shot. I'm not interested. But man, the schedule's tough. There's no like other awards I'd be interested in. I think that's a good one. You got. Allen's pretty shorties like five. One for. MVP. I think he's favorite at some shops. James Cook. O. I. Probably not. I can't think of the rookie that's. Going to have a serious consideration for you to the award. So. You know what award I like. For. The bills. I don't think that's going to happen. No. 2027. Josh Allen come back later the year. Do you get hurt? We're seeing. Those bills. The bills are. The bills are one in. He gets hurt against Minnesota. The Minnesota blitz blitz gets him on Monday night football. -Murdered -Florisne, the bills at that point in their schedule are one in seven. Thank you. And it's literally like, all right, we're going to put Josh on ice because the season is over. And he's your comeback player of the year for 2027, 28. Kyle Allen goes, "Oh, and not him." Close the season. Should I put my money where my mouth is and find some bills all known? Do you think it sounds like the way we're talking this out, that I am actually very, very presently expecting it downside with this group and this schedule? They are extremely fragile because of how important it is. If you want to bet the other way, it is all done this. Just 99. -What's the point 99? -Well, because, as you mentioned, it doesn't have to be Josh Allen tears his knee and he's, he can't play football because he can't walk. It's, Josh Allen has a meaningful, sprained ankle or a contusion or something that would leave him out for a week or two. And they just, that's not healing right. Like, we're going to go with another week of Kyle Allen or whoever I just said. We're, like, put this guy on ice, even though it's not a season ending entry. Why don't we just not try to mouth there as much anymore? Yeah. It could happen then. No, I hope others are. Josh Allen is not playing. Those don't catch with Josh Allen playing every game. Yeah, I know. They went through an 11 games back then. Yeah, yeah, no, no, no, no, no. This is literally like your, your, your, you are, uh, praying on the beginning of the season going so poorly combined with the potential for picking up an injury parlayed to, they put him on ice. Yeah, it's like, it's because he picks up an entry every year, but he's tough as nails. He's staffed as he just plays through it. Whereas like, hey, we're one in seven and your ankle is pretty, pretty big. We can't see the bones because it's so swollen. You sure you want to get shot up at this? Like, uh, kind of a movie was said. RIP Paul Walker, uh, Varsity Blues. Hmm. I shoot them up in the back room. Oh, that was great. Sure you want to, you sure you want to tour it all? Hello, would you go eight and a half plus three ten? Oh, you, it, if they start like one in six, one in seven and they put it on ice, they're winning like five games, right? How many games is Kyle Ellen when it comes to stretch, man? If you truly get that the Doomsday scenario for the bills, you think I can get somebody to write me under five? I don't know that I don't know how far off they'll go though. You do have four games against the dolphins in the Jets, which is a problem. I like the six or seven and a half something like that. Hmm. And then yes, truly like, I would root against your bed because of all those prime time. Oh, yes. No, if I had to watch Kyle Ellen, I can't any of those teams. Dude, didn't we have to watch Chris Aluda con on, on, on Christmas last year for the - Yeah. - We mentioned that because people were like, "Dm-ing me, hey, I saved the chiefs for Christmas and survivor 'cause we, you survived this one and we used Christmas like, what do I do? I'm like, I don't know. Sorry, things happened, survivor's tough. I don't even wanna do survive this. - I saved the chiefs for today and they're 10 and a half point dogs. What do I do? - I might just do one survivor just to say I have one. I was so disenchanted with the green backers last year what they did to us, how they hurt us, how they cut us deep. - All right, well, I've made anyone total bet so far. So I'll keep posted if I do and ultimately pull the trigger. I guess I'm waiting too. - I don't know. - I mean, Calche is, see with the prediction markets, you can be a maker. Put that up, see if somebody takes the other side. - Cool. Under six and a half games, one cent. - Yeah, you have to price it. - I'll put it one cent. - Three cents. - All right, man. Good luck at the 3M this weekend. If you didn't already know, Andy got to meet us here with Scottie Sheffler today. Also got a free beer. So, looking up for you, have a great weekend. Or division to be determined now. - Yeah, I don't know. Well, that's tough, but I'm there. - Sorry, I got Bill's fans. It might be good coming into a season. - I don't want that to happen. - I want him to play well. - Yes. - Bill's parents from.