Bridging the Atlantic: The Future of EU-US Relations

Welcome to EU Decoded, where the EPP Group brings you straight into the debates of the European Parliament. We discuss policy, current events and pressing global issues. Today, we explore one of the world's most enduring partnerships, the EU-U.S. relationship. Amid global shifts, new powers and technological rivalry, the Transatlantic Alliance faces fresh challenges and opportunities under the Administration of President Trump. To help us understand what lies ahead of the EU-U.S. relations, we are joined by three guests who bring valuable perspectives to this conversation. And I will start to my right with Mrs. Eliana Zovko, member of the European Parliament, EPP Group's Vice-Chairwoman, member of the Committee for International Trade. I go to Mr. Mikhail Serba, you are the European Parliament's standing rapporteur on the United States. And last but not least is Mr. Tommy Huhtanen, who is an expert on Transatlantic Affairs and Executive Director at Wilfried Martin Center. I will start this podcast with speaking about the big picture. We have the Russia's aggressions in Ukraine. We have the China trade war with the United States and all the problems. We have the recent war in Gaza, the attacks on the Iran. Recently, the EPP Group adopted a paper, a position paper on the US-U.S. relation. Mrs. Zovko, you were one of the co-author of this paper. So my first question goes to you. This paper stresses the need that the EU-U.S. relations should be based on trust and predictability. What does it mean in practice, this predictability? Predictability means that our businesses should have some certainty and predictability on the trade tariff that we have also adopted in a framework agreement that Ursula von der Leyen has achieved with President Trump. And we need to understand that this win-win situation for our businesses also should be acceptable for US businesses. So this predictability is something that goes on both sides of the ocean. For many years, Europe was doing business and counting on security that the United States was providing as the biggest contributor in NATO and in the peace mission and in the security issues for our borders and in different continents. We have faced new realities starting from the era of Obama, who has changed the attention from Europe and from European borders to Asia and Pacific. And now it culminated with the coming of President Trump, who in his second term has requested from European Union to take care, finally, of our safety. And I think that in a sense that no one feels disadvantage in these relations and that we have achieved, first of all, commitment from EU member states, from NATO member states to invest 5 percent into the fence. And also that we have achieved that our businesses have these 15 percent tariff rates with US that we can say that we have trust and we have a predictability, but trust, it remains to be seen. But do we really have this predictability, let's say, under the administration of Mr. Trump, or we have to adapt to some new situations? Of course we can observe paradigm shift in the US policy, but you mentioned the trust and predictability, and it means that our transatlantic partnership cannot depend on personalities or political cycles. We have to invest in a long-term perspective, and that's why our EPP group has presented this position paper. We cooperated on this with Zeljana Zovko. It's a very important document we can build on. This is the main. And what we also mentioned in this document, we have to build constantly. It means that we have to be in contact with different actors in the US politics. It's not only Washington DC, it's not only the Congress, it's not only the White House, but it's also the US states we are traveling to. We speak with the opinion leaders, we're just messaging them that, for instance, the presence of the US military in Europe is very important. I'm also working on the strategic partnerships of the EU, and we use this expression "strategic autonomy." But it doesn't mean that you have to be alone. It means that we have to cooperate with different actors. First of all, NATO. We need this strategic partnership, but also the third countries like the UK, Norway, Canada, Zeljana is going to Australia soon. So we need to deepen this relation with like-minded partners, like-minded countries. Mr. Fugtanen, considering the rising powers of China and Russia's wars in Ukraine, how should the UN-US coordinate to preserve a rule-based international order? I think that the common value-based still exists despite all these discussions. I think also what is very important to notice is that despite all the rhetoric, but if you look at the administration, also the new administration, the old actors, they're all coming back online. They are working on democracy projects, they are set by previous speakers, they are working in grassroots level. So that cooperation exists. And secondly, as mentioned by Masovko, what is important is the sanctions. Now, for example, with Russia, it's a good point to be united, to coordinate it and to have a real impact. And of course, as you mentioned, China and China supply chains cooperate with the United States in international organizations. We know that there is an issue of commitment and it sounds like that, but I think it's for us Europeans to get the U.S. back on board. Let's go to another issue now. The heart, or one of the biggest parts of our partnership, is defence and security. Masovko, what do you think? How does the EPP Group view the balance of burden-sharing inside NATO and their enforcement of the European pillar alongside U.S. engagement? As I said already in the beginning, we have understood with Russian invasion on Ukraine that at least the eastern flank is exposed, it's not safe, and that Poland was already doing its part of the deal. But fortunately, all the other countries have agreed, apart from some socialist countries like Spain, to invest 5% in its defence, which is a good preparation for our strategic sovereignty, but that will not come tomorrow, it will come in a few years. We are now working on a different strategy, we are working on provision, we are working on interoperability of our material and we still need the U.S. for its intelligence support and its robust presence and that Ukraine needs and Ukraine that is going to be our accession country, that is going to become a European Union, we need the American partners to end the war and to end the war in a just way. Meanwhile, we are trying and I've been organising ground tables on all the borders of European Union in order to raise the awareness from starting from Sevilla to Helsinki and to Tallinn and also in Croatia to understand that each border has its own challenges and that we need to invest in it and we need partners to invest jointly. Next week I'm preparing a big conference with countries from Southeast Europe and from Central Europe like Poland, Czech Republic and Bulgaria on joint production of drones and raising awareness, having a stake in the production of weapons also means acceptance by the citizens and also awareness that we need to prepare ourselves for future threats and not to count that somebody comes from far away to save us. Mr. Czerba, Mrs. Zovko mentioned Ukraine, you are coming from Poland, neighbouring country to Ukraine, do you think also that the role of the United States in the war in Ukraine is very crucial and is going to be crucial also in the near future? Of course, unity is our strongest weapon and we should mention this and we need to stand shoulder to shoulder with the US on transatlantic sanctions, not only on EU sanctions, so we know that in the US Senate there is a work going on on sanctions and on the full package to force Russia to stand and to be at the table to negotiate the peace. What is important is of course our diplomats' engagement, it's about using our shared values, our contacts, our institutions and of course we want to focus on cooperation with Ukraine in different formats. First of all, we do have the SAFE instrument which allows Ukraine to participate in this defense industry project and of course my country Poland is going to use 44 billion Euro thanks to SAFE instrument and in different projects we are going to present at the end of November, Ukraine is included, so this is a good example and other countries should follow Polish example. Can I come in on different issues, exactly as mentioned by previous speaker, the issue of defence is crucial. If you look at the debate on the US global role, if you are not able to fix the issue of defence there is no credibility, whether we like it or not, but that is the reality. Now the European Union Commissioner Kubilius is doing an excellent job, but I would claim that there is at least three issues which are not necessarily EU competence but topics which we need to discuss when we speak about EU defence in the long run or European defence. The nuclear deterrence, President Weber from the EPP has mentioned that a couple of times that is a discussion which really does not exist but the nuclear weaponry has been the most efficient weaponry of Russia, number one. Number two, one issue which is not discussed much, we are focusing on the technology and resources and that is outstanding, but we need to also speak about mobilization capacity, so the imaging situation that Russia would in a situation of ceasefire would decide to go for offensive, we will have a real issue in defending and thirdly as mentioned by you is the issue of Ukraine, it is not anymore, we need to support Ukraine and that is crucial, but the real big discussion is how to integrate Ukraine to our European defence structure in the future, that is for us really crucial question. But we cannot have security without having economic strength and this will be our next topic in the discussion, the transatlantic trade relations I think they have a worth of over 1.6 trillion and it is one of the, I think it is the one, the largest ones in the world and I will start with you Mr. Huhtanen, in this world we don't have only EU and US, we have also other players like China for example, which is a big global player and wants to play a major role in the new system which seems that it is coming. How do you think that the EU and the US can align their economic strategies in response to China's influence? I think what we, in short, what we of course seeing that especially coming to trade EU, US have now very different kind of approaches and I think what is excellent that the European Union has expanded, it is negotiation, we are discussing about Mercosur, there is a new openness with India, Southeast Asia and also actors which before were not so open to discuss about the trade issue, I am more open to it, so we see that on the other level. The second issue is that we need to indeed, we need to engage much more but not only as mentioned by previous speakers, beyond the institutional level, Latin America, Africa, etc. Yes, we have a lot of things to do but it is very clear that now as the United States is not any more the big brother who is kind of guiding our interest globally, we need to make the task and make the job. Mr. Serba, we have some new fields of technology like AI. We have also some issues, we try to keep our autonomy in rules-making, something in the big technological companies and issues, something that the US does not like so much. But what do you think, how the EU and US can cooperate in these new technologies? Of course we need a permanent dialogue between the EU and US in different formats, on different topics and of course AI is one of those, the most important ones. At the same time we need this cooperation, also economic cooperation because our economies depend on this. We also gave these figures to our US colleagues before the trade deal was fixed, that we are the strongest economists working together, we have to confront China in different parts of the globe. Recently I was in Djibouti in the eastern of Africa and what we can observe in this country is China's role becoming stronger and stronger and of course it is also a challenge for the EU. Diplomacy, engagement, to be active in these very important parts of the world. Of course in Europe we concentrate on Ukraine, but don't forget that we have to be active in different areas, it's the Middle East, Africa, it's Indo-Pacific, we need stability and peace. If we have stability and peace in different regions, we can concentrate on our Europeans challenges, mostly it's defence readiness 2030, we have a roadmap presented by the European Commission and we have to fully engage in this process. Mrs. Zofko, you are a member of the Committee for International Trade, what do you think, in what ways can this EU-US economic partnership be deepened? I'm not only a member, I'm a rapporteur for EU-US trade. And we have just adopted this opinion, I would refer to what the previous speaker has said about this China, EU and US relation on critical raw materials, we have seen some positive development of Trump's negotiation with China that we already had issues in regard to export of critical raw materials and now Europe is benefiting from this deal. I think that at this moment first of all we need to understand that the positioning of the global world order is something that we have to also understand where is our place in it. WTO needs reform and this was accepted by all the interlocutors, not only by the United States of America but this reform has to be based on the rules based order that we are and the countries that we are looking for and also the United States of America is looking for the same countries that will play with the same rules and not to benefit and not to abuse WTO as China has used in the past. We are trying to diversify also our supply chain, European Union and this is why we are going again to the countries that we have neglected for so many years. I was in Nigeria and in Ghana, we have to look, we were in Bolivia for election observation mission that has the biggest production of lithium and we have to understand that these things have been happening for many years but no one has really paid attention that one day with all this digitalization and the production that needs critical raw material and minerals that we will be left helpless if we don't have some sort of strategy and economic security in our production. So I think that at this moment the European strategy and European way of doing business and doing this production and strategic sovereignty in economic field is something that we should insist as well from the commission and from our leaders as well like true representatives of the citizens here in European Parliament because there is no more time to be reliant on authoritarian regimes and just finally to say, we have seen a good changes in Trump administration recently. I was in Nigeria for so many years I was calling for protection of Christians that were persecuted and killed and massacred there. There was no reaction but two days ago President Trump has issued this new absolute warning for Nigeria government to take care of the stability of the country and to protect minorities and they finally took this message seriously. So authoritarian regimes and also in Tanzania that we have tried to raise the awareness but no one was listening in European Union. So finally some of these authoritarian regimes they need a strong warning or at least to stop doing business with them. I think what we did see as always in the beginning of new US administration you have this attempt with Russia now we see China but I think the fundamental issue and the reason why it makes me so confident about the future of transatlantic relations is we Europeans don't see US as an enemy while Russia and China do fundamentally an opponent and so that creates a dynamic that as we can now see with Trump certain issues are a test but at the end of the day they will notice I hope that they will notice who are the allies and also the same structure which they have created will be the structure which will serve them most. We spoke about defence, about trade, about technology but our partnership stands also for democracy, freedom and the rule of law. Mr Huhtane what do you think how the EU and US can jointly defend democracy, human rights, the rule of law and how do you think should they respond to authoritarian regimes and all the hybrid threats we have today? As we discussed earlier I think the basic values are still there, the basic elements are still there. If you look at how the US administration is working you know it has the same, in many cases it has same goals and same objectives than we had with certain alterations so I think that gives a good basis and of course it relates to China what we are also seeing if you are really honest many times Americans, the US is using very hard rhetoric on China but you see last week there was a photo of the two leaders agreeing with each other on certain issues. I think also we have to be aware, we have to cooperate on certain issues and I think there is a lot of base as mentioned by previous speakers on how to coordinate our action with China and how to negotiate and together we can have a more stronger base but I think also the argument and I think the Trump administration will learn it or will see it democracy is good for business. It's the fact if you look to Russia, China, all these authoritarian regimes and the trend where they are going to economically it's not very optimistic, it's not very positive and I think that we at the end of the day with all this struggle and transition period we will be in the winning round. When I just jump into this I would just like to say as somebody who is trying to put our party in what we really are, we are the Christians and what the US is doing at this moment they are protecting Christians who are the most persecuted religious groups in the world. We have not heard from any of previous administrations that they did that. They were involved in nation buildings, they were involved in building some clouds and trying to build something that is not going to hold without understanding the cultural context of the countries where they were intervening. What Trump has done now for the question of Christians in Nigeria and what I have seen with European community in Abuja who have not moved away from member states, who have not moved away from the capital and have tried to distort the image on what was going on on the ground, trying to reclaim that more than 50,000 people who were and more than 100 churches who were burned that it's nothing. He has done with just one move and with one statement and with one threat that he will intervene and he has done now he's doing it from Tanzania and we were being quiet. We tried to warn as EPP so many times that Tanzania we have our IDU vice president Tundulizu who is in jail, no one can approach him, he's on a dead cell. Trump has warned them and tell them that they're going to have to deal with him. So America is back, but is back in a big time to this oppressor and authoritarian. But in the same time they said, Secretary of State Landa said at this Dayton anniversary that they are not going to be involved in any more nation buildings or making something that is totally unrealistic that we have seen in the past when like Dayton peace agreement was totally distorted because of some actors. So I would like to say in a sense that he's protecting our democracy's value and Europe is based on that. Let's change the subject and let's look ahead. In the EPP Group's position paper we call for renewed youth exchanges between European and Americans in order to strengthen our cultural and educational bridge and for the future generations. Mr. Serba, how do you think how can this deeper people-to-people exchange save the future of the transatlantic relations? It's very important and we put it very clearly into our position paper on the U.S. relations. People-to-people contacts, universities, think tanks, opinion leaders not only in Washington DC as I mentioned but in the States are critically important. So we need this cooperation going on and Europe must take a lead in this process to also investing in the future leaders of EU-U.S. relations. We can observe this paradigm shift as I mentioned that this administration is less focused on this relation but if the U.S. is leaving you have to go in and to be interested in investing in a long-term term. We covered a lot of issues today but before we end I would like to have your closing remarks and I will start from you Mrs. Olko. European Union was made after the bloody war with the great help of the United States of America. We remember Marshall Plan that was crucial to rebuild Europe, all the peace agreements that we have seen from Good Friday Agreement to Dayton Peace Agreement that we are celebrating. This year have been made in a cooperation with the United States of America from both parties and we should always be careful in articulating our positions and our wishes in relations to our partners because mutual respect and mutual trust will be built only with mutual respect of the history and the legacy that we have. I mean if we are just going to Normandy and if we see hundreds of graves of brave American soldiers that laid their lives there, I don't think that at this moment of time we have a luxury to say that we will divert from our partners. We need to build and to prove as well and we need to strengthen our ties. My Polish colleague knows very well and also my Finnish colleagues how important it is to be as a creation, how important it is to have strong partners on our borders of European Union and to know who our allies and who our friends are. So I am sure that this position paper that I had the pleasure to do with Nihal Sherba is going to be a great success as well today his report and my opinion on the trade was adopted with overwhelming majority and I am looking forward to have this partnership much more strengthened than we have seen in the last year here in the European Union. Of course we need these partnerships, it's a strategic partnership and also in my report that said the Security and Defence Committee I also propose that we need to formalize these partnerships as we did with the UK, Canada and Norway, Japan, South Korea and others partners because we want also the US to participate in our defence programmes in the future. So we need to be united, we do not have to concentrate on some tensions which are appearing during the last year of this administration but we have to be future oriented because it doesn't mean that we will have the same president, the same majority in the Congress and the Senate as now. We are ahead of the new elections, mid-term elections in the US and we have to participate in different actors so as we did within the EPP we concentrate to build relations with the republicans and the democrats and different actors which are absolutely necessary in this process. The question is not really can we trust Trump but can we trust ourselves, the core issue there is our internal strength, I think defence is really issue where we have to have independence and that's what the Americans are asking, they are asking us to do our homework and they don't want to do any more careers and I think it's fair and also economically if we, when we discussed about Lisbon Agenda, European Union was bigger economic entity than the United States. Today we have 40% behind so there is lot to do and the EPP and I think our political families on that trap are emphasising the importance of the growth, we need to have a more dynamic economy, that concerns also the whole discussion as you mentioned about AI regulation, everything needs to be more business oriented, more innovation oriented and I think that creates the basis and secondly as I said I think it's very clear that the United States is going kind of transitory period domestically also but I think the basic elements will remain, I think we are their friends, their opponents we know and we have to be patient, we have to work on grass root level and we had to create those contacts and have that dialogue and it's a hard work but we'll do it. This is Zofko, Mr Sero, Mr Huhtanen, thank you very much for your participation and for your insights and thank you to our listeners for joining us in this discussion on the future of the Transatlantic relations, until next time thanks for listening. And that's it for this episode of EU decoded, make sure to follow the EPP group on social media, stay informed, stay engaged and join us next time as we unpack other EU topics.