Breakout Picks + Injury Anger, Mike Returns! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/17

(upbeat music) ♪ All right, all right, all right ♪ It's almost that time of year. The time when I set the foundation for supreme and total dominance at my fantasy football draft. How can I be so confident? Because I use the ultimate draft gig from the fantasy footballers. Man, it updates all off season. So I never worry about using old busted information. Consistency charts, auction values, full projections. Oh, baby, this thing's got it all. You wanna keep it 100 for your draft. Head to ultimatedraftkid.com. Get your copy to dead. (upbeat music) Welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. (upbeat music) Oh, welcome in. (upbeat music) Monday, August 17th, the fantasy footballers podcast. Jason Moore is here. I'm Andy Holloway and guess what? - What? - He's back. - The mucus king returns. - Mike, the fantasy hitman returns to the studio, no bear. - Extraordinaire in my chair. - No, we have the full crew back and it is a huge week. Breakouts, busts, values, sleepers, 10 tips and tricks episode, mock draft, mayhem, and too many injuries to talk about. - Yeah. - I'm so, this was like, listen, this was a regular week in season amount of injuries to our guys. Every year, I've lived in Arizona my whole life and every year, the summer surprises me. - Fresh. - And how much of an inferno it is, how hot it is, how horrible it is. Every year, I'm like, oh my gosh. - Yeah. - And the same thing happens with injuries and fantasy football because we have an off season of anticipation and excitement and joy. And the worst part is we have like done work to try to decide on how something's going to happen and we never get to see for some place. - It's unbelievable. We have a board that has our, my guys or maybe our MVPs or, you know, we've got breakouts today. And it's like we've got all these players we're looking for and waiting. And then all of a sudden, behind the scenes, we're excited to talk to you about, so I got my groin. - Oh, my offensive line, man. - Oh, my toe. - I don't have it me anymore. - This game is brutal. I don't know if you guys know this football. - Yeah. - It is a rough and tough game. - It's tough sport. But we must go on without knowing how some of these situations will turn out. And this is why, like we've had a hard time people have been asking us for our my guy picks and we kind of have to thread the needle a little bit. - On the timeline. - On the timeline. Like I'll say this now, like I really wanted to make Alec Pierce a my guy for most of the off season. - Yeah, he did. - Can't really do that right now. I can't go say invest on the draft pick and start him. I don't know when he's gonna play. Maybe it'll be week one. I don't know. But those are coming next week as well, the my guy picks. Your drafts to get started ours is on Labor Day. So hopefully you've pushed yours back as far as you can because this is why we say draft is close to kickoff as possible. - I think that's important because maybe people don't realize that kickoff is a week later this year than it usually is. So instead of doing it, like if your league always does the second weekend in August, I guess you would be done. But you know, whatever, if you time it that way, you should push it later. And we always say every year, like push your draft as late as possible towards kickoff. I would recommend having it be after the third and final week of preseason because there's no fun in like, you leave a draft, you're excited. And then before the first week, before the first fantasy point is scored, a guy you got in the second round is like done for the year in the week three of the preseason. That's think. So push him like. - Yeah, push him as far back as you can. The exception being if you can get people together for in person drafting, do that whenever you can. That's the best. - But what else do we got going on? We got one week left in our UDK for a life giveaway. We're giving away the ultimate draft kit for the rest of your natural life. And we have added the bequeathing capabilities to this gift is if it's in writing. If you have an unnatural life, it's really up in the air. We won't really be able to apply anything. - So it's too great. - It's really just like, it's just us giving something away. It's just us giving. 'Cause I think right now everyone who's preparing for drafts they're getting knows my draft kit anyways. It's like we're just also including the fact that you might get it forever for always. And maybe a signed Jamar Chase jersey as well. - UltimateDraftkit.com winners will be selected during our live stream next Monday. - It's for sure happening. - Yeah, it's definitely happening. But maybe for each individual, right? - Only. - Maybe you will be the one to get it. - Not every person is gonna get it. That would be a bad business move. - It's one of the final part of moments. - If we gave everybody a free U2K forever. But if you've purchased it already, if you're an ultimate foot clan member, you're automatically in there to win. The community is over. I joined the foot.com. You can follow us on Instagram. Instagram.com/FantasyFootballers. We had another just the tips episode. Hit YouTube, YouTube.com/theFantasyFootballers this past weekend. Our quick question of the day is, comes in, what part of doing a fantasy football podcast is something that most people don't know about? Maybe it's a part of the daily weekly process. What is something most people don't know about? - Let's see. I mean, there's definitely a few things. The one I would say is what has really changed is the ebbs and flows of the calendar. Like when we weren't in it, a fantasy football was still life. I was all in. - When you weren't in the podcast. - When we were doing the podcast, but like when you hit June, it was like you could really feel it inside of like, oh baby, football's coming back. Football really never leaves for us. - I'll see you, you miss me. - I find that I don't get the same Christmas forever. - Yeah, exactly. I don't get the same juice ramp up inside of the natural time. - You're always juiced. - I love football. With the preseason on, it was, oh, thank goodness. - Thank goodness, it's back because it has been too long. I love football every day, but it's just that that's the natural ebbs and flows of timing that you're circadian rhythm of sports. We don't really have that. - Yeah, like a decade ago, the idea of hard knocks coming out, I was like, oh, yes, I got a throw that on now. It's like I would consume everything. I love watching clips. I don't know if I'm gonna sit down 'cause I know what I'm going to be sitting down watching film all the time, but I think the thing people might not know about doing a fantasy football podcast is like, we do the show for about an hour a day. How much goes into a prior to that, the amount of research and reading and Google Sheets and Work Behind the Scenes, we try to come on here and sound as relatively dumb as we can, but we are putting in those. - We shocked how much we prepared a sound, this dumb. - Yeah, yeah. - I always think it's funny. We do so many shows over the course of the year and how many times we're doing the dance of timing recording so we don't miss news. We're trying to thread the needle of record where we've done pretty well, I feel like, except for your Portland Sutton thing in the middle of the show. - Oh, that was the best. - That's awesome. - That was perfect. - I think it was a show moment of the year. - But just when we record and we know stuff is gonna happen, we try to dance the recording times around the news, which is kind of fun. But yeah, speaking of Christmas year round analogy, did you see that they're opening a coffee shop down the street? - Oh yeah. - That is-- - From us? - Yes. - It's a-- - From where we live. - It's a Christmas-- - It's called Christmas Cafe. - It's called Christmas Cafe. It's Christmas themed and Christmas music and Christmas-- - 365. - 365. What do you think of that? - Is that gonna ruin the magic or is that amazing? - My initial thought is very optimist. (laughing) I can't wait. If you're telling me at any point in the year, I could just check out the Christmas Cafe. - I just, that AC better be. - Oh, it's gotta be frigid. - It's gotta be frigid there. - Oh, that's a good point. - If it's not like kind of snowing in there, like a little bit fall from there, snuggly hooding, that's not Christmas. - That's not Christmas. - That's not gonna work. - I can walk there from my house. I can't wait. - Yeah, it's that close to you. - Yeah. - I'm very hopeful. - I think they're optimistic. - I'm optimistic. - You're pro Christmas Cafe. - I think that might be too much, but I'm excited to hear that. - One way to find out. - You're willing to find out. - We'll see if they're opening your half from now. People will decide. Yeah, um, let's jump into the news. news and notes from around the league. This is a, oh man, the people hate the news today. This tiny year is just all, I just say this is a breakout show, but the news is going to feel like a breakdown. We are the message or nothing. We didn't make it happen. The first, uh, the first piece of news, like Mike, you weren't in here, but we came on and got to talk about the preseason game cardinals, Raiders and Jeremiah Love and how good he looked. I mean, it was ridiculous. I hope you enjoyed it. Obviously. How obvious it was that Jeremiah Love will be a dominator at the NFL. It was almost like they could have known that before they drafted of number three overall in the NFL draft. Well he had to be sure though, receiving 14 carries for some reason. And the 14th carry resulted in a hip drop ankle sprain, looks like a high ankle sprain. They just weren't sure. You know, that's their 13th care that we got to get. Let's see what happens next. They're still hopeful that he will be ready for week one against the chargers. That terminology means it's, it's a high ankle. You usually miss three weeks. Come back. And then you lose production oftentimes you lose production, peak production for a couple of weeks. Obviously, if they are bringing him back off of an injury and his first time back is week one, they are not going to take this young future centerpiece of their team and say, here's 25 touches in your first week back from injury. So, so much. I mean, and Connor isn't even back to 11 on 11, which means there's a really good chance Tyler a year is like the starting full time running back for the Cardinals in week one. By the way, there are other top four picks are also hurt. Yeah. They lost their guard for the year, their second round pick, Carson Beck is hurt. They lost their D.T. In the fourth round. Yeah. So there's no, they don't have a draft. Cool. That's cool, man. I mean, this one is, I mean, I, I don't know on the groin's how often it's due to physical contact or not, but this was, you know, this was just on his own. He's running a route catches a ball, no defender and pulls it and goes down. Waterfly stretch. Thank you. Mike is what I've been trying to tell everyone. When you are the leader of the charge butterfly stretch.com Jason more Jason more physical therapists. There should not be groin injuries, guys, butterfly stretch. Oh, how are there so many groin injuries makes no sense. Flat, flat. All right. Let's hypothesize here. Christian McCaffrey has now missed one full week of practice. Originally, it was revealed. It was due to quote tightness, perhaps the tightness of the wall. Let's see if he's tight 49ers genuine genuine question because Mike, you have a much better memory than anybody alive. This was going on. It was either last year or the prior year. It was one of the last two years where he's going to be fine, but that was the two years ago. That was two years ago. Okay. And it kept seeming like totally going to be fine, nothing to see here. And so that two years ago, it wasn't, it was there was something to see there and it was very, very bad. Okay. It did time out. Nothing to see. It turned up with Beijon and Gibbs getting money. Yeah. There's some, the, the, the bushes are whispering. I think the bushes are just hopeful, man. Yeah, I do too. Josh Downs exited with another injury. Hard fall on his back, tried to walk it off, was in pain and, and had to leave for a few snaps. Don't know the severity, Alex Pierce not expected to practice this week. Yeah, there's like no whiteouts right now. The good news is if, you know, unlike when Mike Williams would have those terrible tumbles to the ground and, and enter himself, which is what Josh Downs did, not a lot of weight on him. Fell on him. That's true. Lighted by himself. Um, I'm going to hit the button for this one, but, uh, Sains head coach, Kalamore said the team is, quote, still in collection mode regarding Jordan Tyson's hamstring, leave the red light on me. I mean, this is, this is really, let's really not good. The range of outcomes here on this injury for those that don't know, Jordan Tyson, top 10 draft pick from ASU, multiple hamstring injuries while at ASU, uh, how to hamstring injury in the draft process was just getting some of the best publicity possible with some of these, you know, routes. He was running in practice that, I mean, and this is, this is why he was the number one scouted wide receiver for us. We watched how twitchy he was at ASU. It was amazing, but this hamstring is now genuinely threatening potentially his entire season. I want people to understand surgery is a potential outcome. Of the hamstring injury to Jordan Tyson doesn't mean it is the outcome, but when you have to say you're still in collection mode, you don't get to, oh, we hope he's back soon. They remember pay attention to bad news, not good news. You're seeking doctors opinions because you don't, you don't like the first few opinions. You do not usually, I'm just putting this out there when you see, oh guy has a hamstring problem. They don't usually go seek like, oh no, what do I do? It's a hamstring issue. It's like rest it for a couple of weeks. You get a great price on a car. You don't go to five other dealerships. Do you? No, this is, this is really bad. And so as of this moment, I'm expecting him to miss the beginning of the season. That's not based on like, no, I think for sure he will, but it's not based on absolute knowledge. That's what I'm saying is just my draft strategy. I am approaching it like I'm not going to have him at the beginning of the season. If I'm going to make that selection. Do these guys ever, this is a, you know, it's kind of funny, but it's a genuine question. They have an injury like this and they go to the, the first doc in the docs like, oh, surgery. What? No, no, I'm saying like everything. You'll be okay. This, it's a strain. You know, we're just a couple weeks. Are they, are they still like, we need to make sure no, no, no, no, no, no, if they get good news on the first one, they don't go to a follow up doctor nature. Yeah. George Kittle, very confident he won't start the season on the pop list has a chance to play week one. What he means by that is he knows he's not going to miss the first four games in which case he will not be starting on the pup. That's kind of how it was laid out. He's hopeful he's there for week one, but he is very confident. They won't play some on the guarantee to miss a month worth of games. So that to me says, if you're drafting George Kittle, which I don't blame you, it's easy. Grab another tight end. Are you going to say, Tonjus? Yes. I am. We had this question. Yeah. He's a draft. If I'm taking Kittle, if I'm accepting the risk and they talked about because they're the Australia game, like they'll know he won't make the trip essentially. So you'll have fun. Can I make a counter argument for that? Sure. The counter argument isn't that Tonjus can't perform well, Kittle, like in a very binary Kittle out Tonjus in. I think that works out. The problem that I have with that strategy is that there could be a middle period of time where it's limited snaps for Kittle, therefore limited snaps for Tonjus. Because of the players that I like at the back of the draft and Isaiah likely is an option, right? I'd rather have somebody that I might, I might have two good players, right? Right. If you get Dalton, Katelyn, Isaiah likely late, Dallas, Gotterly, all of a sudden come week four Kittle's back and rocking, and you still have someone that with value. I don't mind that at all. I'm saying like you have a Jawan Johnson. I know I can tempt you with Jawan Johnson, or you're taking him over Tonjus, aren't you. Jordan Tyson, Sam String. Yeah. I would. I do love Jawan Johnson. My point is like, if you know Kittle is out, Tonjus is a free square in your draft. Some other people might take Isaiah likely in round 10, or something like that. If you want to punt all the way to the end, Tonjus will be waiting for you. And if Kittle is out, this team with dot dot dot exactly, it's like, okay, well, if if everything works out, it's great. It's brand new Mike Evans. It's brand new second round, what is definitely and Tonjus produces when George Kittle is out. I need, he's already familiar. I think Tonjus would be a very strong start. That's fine. And I would say draft strategy wise. If you have an IR spot, you don't need to use your draft, just draft Kittle. No one is going to go and draft Tonjus that didn't have a Kittle unless your face. It would be very vindictive if somebody did it. Yeah, but I would just wait till the draft is over. Throw Kittle on your IR when that happens before we want to save a spot completely. There you go. There's a tonjus plan. I like Tucker crafts of the team will probably keep him on a snap count until halfway through the season. He was out there practicing for the first time, and there was like a quote about the wolves. Yeah, slap him on the butt, send him to the wolves after the snap count. Yeah, I don't like that. I mean, like the gray, I've been out with limited snaps. He can. He absolutely can. He was dominant last year. I have personally been out in the sixth round on a player that I think gets off to a slow start. The fact that he is literally saying, I'll probably be limited the first half of the year. Not that he can't just take one pass. You know, he doesn't have to be out there for for every step, but I will counter that by saying like, look at Dalton concade last year, the best yards per out run of all tight ends in the league. I just didn't play enough snaps to be very, very valuable. And I don't know if I'm willing to wait half a year for craft to, you know, to be that. That's me personally. Kyle Monunga left practice early with an apparent right. injury believed to be fine after testing. But it's not been a good offseason from an unguys health. DJ Moore, it looked like a high ankle sprain was heading his way. But according to Joe Brady, he's good to go. So that's nice to hear. And then this one, I am the, you saw the DJ Moore play the wide open. Yes, completely white. And people were, oh, man, wait, you're talking about the one where he catches the ball wide open and he calls the defender to him. Yeah, I'm just saying like he's wide open. So he gets a button. People are like, yeah, I told you, DJ Moore is like, you might be right about DJ Moore. But this is not the play that that proves your thesis. All right, guys, I don't know. You tell me whether you want the button on this one. But a mecca Buka, I know went more testing and a specialist confirmed it was a toe sprain. He's stable. What I don't like is that they asked head coach Todd Boles about his availability for week one. And he could not confirm right now that a mecca Buka will be back there for week one, although they are optimistic. Turf toe can linger. Turf toe can really impact players. It's always, it's silly and stupid because it sounds sprain Jason. Yeah, they're not. No, I know. I know, it's not. Turf toe yet. Right. But if it comes out to grass, I don't think you can get. Well, it has to be the big toe, right? Yeah. Yeah. So we don't know what we don't know which of the little biggies it is. Not yet. But if we say we're going to remove the ring toe, we said we could that I don't think we have to put in honor of J Daniels though. Oh, that's them. That's you had to get the pinky for that one. I mean, either way you're going down to four. You got to get down. You got to respect five. Uh, Najee Harris, the number five. He did with that. I don't remember the timing of this. Was this on the show yet? No, no, on the show this weekend. It came out there. J Daniels legal team told LSU that they said his mom sounds like this. It's his biggest fan for sure. Uh, they told LSU that they can't use his name and image likeness that type of stuff because they let another quarterback wear number five. How to get everyone to turn on you immediately. Yeah, I think over stupid bull crap. Yeah, there's got a lot of what are you doing? I want to see. I genuinely want to see what are you doing with all the bad pub. This would be the silliest thing. Does his ADP move? Does it move down? Just like a cup? I don't know if you're a liar. I don't want to drive it. It won't go there. But you're definitely you have people who don't like to do like this. I blame Shadoor. Yes. You can't it. Do you know how numbers work? There's only so many numbers, right? A Jersey fits all the double digit numbers. If you just because you threw a touchdown pass or I know, I know, I know he won a Heisman. I know. But like he wasn't even there. He didn't win. Yes, burrow is out. But burrow won an actual title. He went undefeated. His numbers were better. This is for LSU. Yeah. And they had already promised this recruit, which you should want your team to do. Well, they promised to recruit this number and the recruit didn't want to give it up. I'm not saying that you don't retire anybody's number ever. It's just it's a slippery slope of like how everybody's going to feel like agree. They had a good career. And if you're Jane Daniels, how are you not like calling them up? Be like, dude, make the number five. This is Michael Irving. Michael Irving was saying Irving. No, Michael Irving. Do you have you not heard Michael Irving? Michael Irving. Oh, he's got me bucket Irving. Yeah, you just did it. Irving. All right. You put it up. You got to get everyone to turn the show off. It was with an eye, but it was also the G. Yeah, get it. It wasn't just. No, I wasn't doing a magic Johnson thing. This was I with a G. My pat. Yeah. I was with an in. I know. Okay. I'm saying that. I'm just I wasn't I wasn't all the way to E and G. Anyways, he comes out and he's like, he was 88. His number should be retired. He's the best. Instead, he creates this. Oh, it's the it's so smart. Incredible legacy for 88 with the Cowboys and then Desperate and then CD lamb. This is like, welcome to the club of greats. Well, and he talks about he's like, you know what they do. They talk about it when when Des Brian has a great like, oh, shades of the great Michael Irving. Stop it. No, I will walk off it is set. Did honor. Did you hear his Charlie Collar crap? He was doing it. Collar. Collar and Irving. This is, is this how you felt when we were doing the, what was the stupid Nickname? Daniel Anderson. Yeah. Now I'm with you. Yeah. Years later, I'm with you. That's a super slow. That was the best nickname ever. My goodness. Um, there you go. Naji Harris visiting with the Giants. Uh, I don't think we need to talk much about it until he signs there. And maybe not because Tyron Tracy with so hard on the block. I would tell Tracy the sim to not come back. Dark right into the blue tent. All right. We'll take a break. We'll, uh, we'll get into breakouts. Let's do it. Breakouts. Joe Mantana. Mountain. Yeah. All right. We have all of our consensus breakout picks inside of the ultimate draft kit. This is a great show opportunity for us to talk about individual breakout picks that we are convicted about that we have faith in that we believe could help your team at a discount in fantasy drafts. Since we just talked about them, uh, multiple times might as well. I guess I'll start it off. My breakout pick is Isaiah likely. Okay. Isaiah likely. I can see why you wouldn't draft Jake Tonjes. Uh, yeah, there you go. I mean, you're going to get a 10th, 11th, 12th round value on Isaiah likely. Um, he's one of the highest paid tight ends per year on average. And I think we're, I think we're suffering from, uh, unmet, unfulfilled promises with Isaiah likely in days gone by the truth of the matter is he's one of the most gifted athletic tight ends. They went out and spent the money to bring him into New York. And while I have my concerns about this offense and Matt naggy and the, you know, the offense clicking and dart behind center, I think likely is one of the most obvious, clear, like discounts and values in fantasy football. We've seen great moments from him. We've seen him, uh, dominate in zone threat. And every single bit of news about this team and what they're saying is he's going, he's been the number one target without neighbors on the field. And I think the capability is, is there. I think likely is the most obvious late round pick that's going to, I believe, be in every week, easy start, you know, when John Harball was talking about his confidence on Isaiah likely, they asked him specifically about high volume in this offense. And he said, look, the numbers that you're talking about, the stats that you're talking about that wasn't part of the thing in Baltimore because of the supporting cast. He said it's going to be a big year. And I know he said positive things about likely before. But the truth of the matter was he had to share a lot of opportunities with Mark Andrews and the rest of this offense to me, likely is going to be a breakout, uh, sans injury in, in year one in New York. Um, it's been the theme of spring and summer. I'm, I'm excited about it. And we, and we've seen a lot of tight ends. Be the late bloomer type of situations where, you know, you had guys like Greg Olson, not really blossomed until he switched teams, uh, going to Carolina. You saw Darren Waller, his first fantasy season was at 27 years old, Kelsey at 27 years old. You didn't get in a joku delivering big performance until his seventh season. So right place, right time. To me, it's a home run. I, I was the reason he's on this show is because he just narrowly missed being a my guy for me. So that's the level of conviction I have around. I say, I like the, the drum beat for him. I think it's, it's been there. It hasn't been loud in your face. Like, uh, some of the other players that that are just really getting. Ferguson's going ahead of him. Mike, no, the ADP is, is fine. I'm saying, I'm, I'm, I like it. I, I think of a, of a, of a late round tied end that could really make a jump. A team that, you know, and last Malik neighbors is ready to go 100% week one. You don't know who the top target earner on the team is going to be could easily be Isaiah likely. And that boy, I can say they're underneath. There really has been buzz about it. It's just not loud, you know, including the, we, we, Jason and I interviewed Dart. Isaiah likely was kind of the only player he talked about when we asked them out of targets. And then there's been little blurbs here and there that I'm surprised haven't elevated his ADP. So he's sitting at a point where I think he is a, a very low risk high upside guy. I don't know if I'm convinced it will happen. But in this, in the market in range of, of outcomes, there's definitely one rise. A likely ends up as the, the guy jumps into the top five. What about the fact that Matt naggy while we hate him most places, he does involve tight ends more than we usually like. Sure. And he loves getting John who smith the ball. You know, I mean, I, I just think that it's, it's going to be a pretty, like Mike, Mike put it best. This is a chance for high upside, late in your draft. Yeah. Where it, you know, it's not that, um, you know, we love Colston Loveland. I love Ty Warren. The craft thing is tough. I love him. But, but if He's limited snaps. That's tough. But like there's a world where like the gap between Isaiah likely's performance and some of those guys may not be as big as you think, but you do have to sacrifice a lot to pull the trigger on level and early so it's just something to think about. But there's, I mean, there's other light round tight end names we've brought up multiple times like Goddard is another one that I think will be involved, but I think likely is a really interesting play in this new offense despite the and I think that there's going to be some growing pains for Dart in this offense, but likely is going to be, you know, we saw it. We saw it last year with Theo Johnson that he built a rapport with this tight end right away. And it's interesting because Hayden Weeks pointed out like when he played, all the plays that likely came in on were passing down. He never put his hand in the dirt once. Theo Johnson was in there blocking for the blocking down. So I think he'll be a targeted receiver in this offense and you do it. It's just like a little bonus for him of like if Dart continues to get exploded on the field, waiting in the wings, guys, James wins. Oh, I mean, the odds of seeing James this year feel very pretty. And if James comes in, I will not have any concerns for any of my pass catchers. Yeah, we want, we want them routes for the tight ends. I think you'll see a ton of them from likely. So that's my breakout pick Jason, my coup wants to go next all jump in here. It is a player that I think the three of like this guy took the nation by storm last year. And I think as a show all three of us, we were pretty hesitant because it's the seventh round rookie running back. Everyone's so excited. He became like the bit of the show. It was a good time. This one's so interesting to me, Mike, because we are post hype season of last year. And you keep coming. I feel like the way it's gone is this all season. You haven't been like trying to chase you, JCM. You just keep coming back to a place where you bring his name up. I spent most of the off season of like, hey, they added Rashad White. Could he end up being the guy and you know, just the way I'm reading the situation right now? It sounds like the team really just, they want it to be Bill Croskey, Marit. And the ADP is shocking to me on sleeper. Bill Croskey is going as the running back 37, which is in fact lower than he was last year around this time. Like that, that is absurd. The people are so mad at Bill. He was, which what, Accler was around last year and then Accler, Accler was a huge part of why I wasn't sure that Bill could take over as the seventh rounder. But then of course, Accler goes down to the Achilles in week two, but Bill for what he was able to put on the field, he was very efficient over the first five games. You were seeing an average of 6.6 yards per carry. And then honestly, the whole team falls apart. You have Jane Daniels injuries. Things are just, the other guys are getting injured all over the place, like Terry missing time. This really didn't work out for Washington and Bill struggled mightily, but towards the end of the season, you know, the final three games, we had a, we had an 18 for 96 with a touchdown. It's against the Giants. That's not great as in like people are beaten up on the Giants, but he's taking what's there. The week 17 against Dallas 11 for 105. He had, he has the juice on a high note. And we knew he had the juice like his, his highlights are like, this is, he's one of the, you few running backs that at any point could rip off the 40 yard touchdown. He has that ability. He's pulling lower than last year, it's, it's, it's insane and Washington, Washington should be a at least middle, you know, to an upper echelon offense. I still believe in Jane Daniels, despite his digging, he owns the number five. And this is, this is an ambiguous situation, you know, he doesn't know, oh, yeah, we're watching you think you're going to get 55. But it's like Chicago, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Washington, these are the, the, the more potent potential offenses that is their, their running backs are going outside of the top 24. These are the players that can change the balance. Yeah, we want, I want to hit my fourth round and all this stuff. I want to find the late round running back that can come in here and really stabilize my team. Like to the next level, they've, they've been expressing, we need him to get better with the ball out of his hands and talk of like, we don't want to have pigeon hold running backs. We don't want to, when Bill's out there, the defense though, oh, they're going to run it. And when white is out there, up, they're going to throw, they, this is something that Washington does not want to happen, which sounds like if Bill takes the job, that's potentially a three down running back. Like, so that's, that's very, very exciting for going as the running back 37. Cros is gone. So he doesn't have, you know, at that type of, of competition at the goal line, it seems like he should get that no matter what. So I'm very interested in his ADP, and I'm very interested in what Bill could turn into. The Cros point is really interesting, because he was very effective down there and got a lot of opportunities. Super. Super. Super. Super. Super. To be fair, that is what he said, I didn't, I didn't need to be repeated, you need to beat that. Yeah. I didn't realize how bad what he said was. I just knew he misspoke, and I had to call him out on it, and then I realized that's very bad. Leave the same, but you got to be very, very bad. I take 20% vowels are very important. I take 20%. You're telling me, I said it like that. You did, you did, you did, you did, you guys are nodding like, like you're right, we all heard it. You're nodding like you're telling the truth. Mm-hmm. I don't believe you. Yeah. No, I, that's, that's no way to know. There's no way we'll never be able to tell if you had actually said it that way first or not. All I know is that whatever way Jason said it was worse. Yes. I will agree with that, because I hit it a little harder. You, you, you, you, you, you, you, you did, you're on trap. I trapped it to your trap. Yeah. Well, is this show still on the air? Do we have to mark this episode differently? We, we have the technology to push through. Oh my goodness. Back to, I'm 12 years of shows. I'm sorry, everybody. Back to Bill. I just have a question. Okay. If this is the only, I know you didn't bring this up, and this was basically you've made all the arguments for why, uh, Bill's a good breakout pick. He can do it. This office blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Yeah. I actually think the only reason that you like him is because your argument for why Bucky Irving was a breakout was just simply because you were betting against Rashad White. You're like, you're not good. If it really was the crux of the, I argue, is that what's happening here? It's just like, you just have to compete with Rashad White who's not that good. But I mean, look, if you want three and a half yards, Rashad whites, you're dude. If you want four and a half yards, he's not, and I'm not even listening to this show anymore. What? Yeah. All right, Jason, you, it's time to talk about your breakout. This is one that I think, I think you might stand alone in this, in this studio on because I want to know that I do, I want it known that I do stand alone on this. And I'm looking at you, Mike. I stand alone. You are the lowest. Do you have it running back 26? I'm right. I'm very out. Yeah, you're out. You're out. Shook it. So, um, what an honest guy I am. I am going, this is Colin Balles' strikes, guys. I'm going against the grain. It feels contrarian, which is a little weird, but my breakout pay was a little bit, a little bit in both directions. I'll explain. The breakout is Travion Henderson, an absolute dynamo of a running back, an explosive, you know, anytime he touches the ball, he can house it. He can get a touchdown. He had a very weird rookie year, right? The first two months of the season, he was not used. He was basically like, he didn't get, he didn't get nine touches at game. He was kind of a gadgety guy, the rookie being brought along slowly, despite the fact that he was almost first round pick, he was like, super high second round pick. The draft capital was there, the explosiveness. We still saw it in those, in those, those plays, but it took Ramondra going down to an injury before he really got to explode. However, once he was a part of the offense, it was a clear working strategy. He was dominant. He was very, very good. In fact, during that time from week nine on, he was the running back nine, averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game. When it happened, he was a monster. Yeah. His rookie season, not to be confused with Ramondra, correct, not to be confused with Ramondra. Yeah. Yeah. You can hit it. Yeah. People don't really like that one. But here's the thing. He was like, nothing. I know I've heard, I know I've heard Andy say, I don't like how he looked between the tackles or whatever, but the truth is he was a very good running back. He was extremely efficient of 55 call it 55 qualifying running backs with 80 or more rushing attempts. He was number one in yards before contact six in yards per carry, 12th and explosive rush rate at 5.6. That was identical to be John Robinson. He had four touchdown runs of 50 or more yards last year. [BLANK_AUDIO] So this is a guy you want the ball in his hands, uh, and they give him work inside the 10. He, you know, Ramondra had 16 10 zone rush attempts. Travion had 21. How good was his rookie year? They had 11 hundred total yards and 10 rushing touchdown or 10 total touchdowns. He did that on only 215 touches. He's a good running back. He's a good player. He's explosive. The argument against him is, is Ramondra Stevenson, like that is the whole argument against him is that he's going to be an easy argument to overcome. But I fear that it has become and totally and that's why he's not being drafted in the first or second round. He was a rookie running back who averaged over five yards per carry, had a 50 plus percent rush success and 10 touchdowns. Since the year 2000, which is amazingly over a quarter of a century ago, I don't believe you. I know. I felt bad when I realized that the only guys who have done that in the rookie season is Clinton, Portis, Zeke, Camera, Jonathan Taylor, and HN and then now Travion Henderson. You say that Henderson is being drafted super high, like he's broken out, but he's actually his ADP is so far beyond what those other guys year two were. Those other guys were all first round picks or HN was a second round pick the following year. We're talking the 4/11, almost the fifth round pick here for Travion Henderson. I realize he's in a time share, but, but Jason, do you turn it to yourself here? The time share is a big deal. Except the fact that like those other guys that I just mentioned, Camera, he was with Mark Ingram, who had 12 rushing touchdowns and was the running back six is rookie year. HN was with most dirt who had, he was the running back two with like 20 touchdowns. Yeah. It's the point that I am saying. Yeah. Let me give you your exclamation point. Go ahead. Is that this is the type of player that you have to take a shot on to truly be a breakout candidate. That's true. You have to call your shot that the backfield just won't stay the same. And that's what we have seen over and over. Nick Chubb was an explosive guy, but he was bear, you know, it was like Carlos Hyde. That was a big problem. They traded him away. Camera with Ingram. James Cook with Devon Singletary. Sounds silly. Afterwards, but in that year Gibbs and Monty. It was like when there is the more explosive special player with high draft capital, they're going to end up getting the work and honestly, we saw it last year. This is the thing that I, I think what happened in the playoffs when they played these unfathomably great defenses. I mean, they're, they're run of playoff to get to the Super Bowl. They played Super D, Super D, Super D. And Ramondra was the guy on the field. Like I get that, but when Ramondra came back from injury during Trevo's rookie season from weeks 12 on, they gave Henderson 13.3 rushing attempts per game. And they gave Ramondra 7.8 like the switch happened. You get to the playoffs. You go, oh, we got to do the, the trusted, they, they played defense. They didn't score a lot of points. It was a great strategy. I think as a full season goes on, your most explosive player is going to get the ball more than, than Ramondra. And if that does happen, and that has to happen to pay off at 411. But if Traveon Henderson ends up at the end of the year with the 60, 40 opportunity count over Ramondra, he's, he's going to be a great pick at top back. So I'm calling him a breakout player now because next year, if he broke out, you, you just go, oh, I mean, that was a great pick. There's only one of two directions that goes. I don't think there's a world where he is exactly what you're drafting him as right now. Okay. Personally. Yeah. I, I, I think it's a tough situation to see what happened in his rookie year because you had his three first, his first three productive games were when Ramondra missed. And then Ramondra was limited in practices and stuff coming back. And they obviously were kind of, they showed what they wanted to do when they got to the playoffs in my opinion. So it, to me, there's, there is a world where he's the exact same thing and I worry about his past protection. There's nothing about him to me that says three down back. Just me personally, from what I saw in the field, I think he's a compliment back. I think he's an explosive guy. But the reports in the, in the off season, have been really negative about his past protection and they have. And the, and Ramondra is the, the thing that nobody wants to say out loud is that he's a really good running back. We were willing to say it when Traveon didn't exist when he got a contract extension and we were excited about him then. Now he just represents a thorn in the side of this other sexier guy that we like. But the team said in, in my opinion, they said in the playoffs that Ramondra is their number one running back. I think, I think Ramondra is a very good running back. I'm not afraid to say that. This isn't like Rashad White where I'm going, all he's got to do is beat Ramondra and that's so easy. My point is more, Dave a Montgomery was a good running back. Mark Ingraham was a good running back. These other guys in these really good offenses, time shares are good running backs. The more explosive, the better running back can be great for fancy and surprise the better running back though. Yeah. They do have to be. That's the, the rough. Well, I don't know that he has to be better. He has to duplicate being that explosive and efficient and hitting that many big plays. Yeah. And the thing is, is how do you look at the Patriots offense? Like I know Andy, you've been very, very bullish on Drake May being legit, being a, a top quarterback in the league from what he did last year. He was an MVP candidate got to the Super Bowl. You are a believer that it's real. If this offense ends up as one of those like top five or six offenses in the league, I don't think it takes a complete bell cow total volume going to Henderson to be really successful. However, there is the. There is the world where, I mean, Ramondra has missed 10 games in the last three years. He's not been a pillar of health. When he went down last year, you say you, you don't have evidence of him being able to be a bell cow. Well, in those four games, he was, I didn't say that. You said, you said about how you say nothing about him having. I said, I don't see him as a three down back in the NFL, which is why his, I didn't say, I didn't have evidence of it. I said, I don't see that being his, his prototypical, what you're going to see on a regular basis. He's forced into that. If they're leader, if the lead back gets hurt, you, I mean, you basically said, I didn't say the word evidence. You said, we haven't had it. I'm just calling me correctly. I, I, let's go to the table with any weed because you said, I can't quote you correctly. I said, we, we haven't seen anything to make us believe his three down back. But in those four games, in those four games, he was on pace for three hundred and a half an opinion. It's different than you. I can tell you that I don't think that the, that he's a three down back in the NFL and his draft picks as that. You're also allowed to like, what you say, stand by what you say and not change it ten minutes later. I didn't change it. I didn't say anything. The nice thing is we have a tape. I didn't have evidence. There's no evidence. I said, I don't see him as a three down back. And the team doesn't. That's why they don't play him on third down very often sometimes because Ramondra can pass protect. You don't like it that I have a different opinion. And that's okay. Nothing to do with. I, what I'm saying is that Ramond, who's the number one running back on the team? Ramondra. Okay. He's number one. He's number one. What does number one running back mean carries? It means the guy that they look to win when, when, yeah, I mean, I think carries. I think at the end of the year. I think that's more carries. Do you believe it? I think it's a big part of the equation. There is a successful team that went to the Super Bowl with this recipe. Ramondra Stevenson is a rabble type guy. He does the dirty work. They love him. They throw him the football. He was great in the passing game. I like Ramondra. But I, we've got to have a bet here. And the bet that I think he will, the bet is that. The bet that I think you will easily take an easy one. I'm sorry. I shared a different opinion. That is not what I'm saying. I'm sorry. My God. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. You are wrong. We will check the tape. Yeah. We will. The bet that I think you will definitely take is when they are both healthy, like if they're both playing in the game, total carries on the season. Like carries per game. I think Henderson has more than Ramondra, which would make him. I mean, I'm. I'm fine with that. I don't really like the, the situation right now, but I'll, I'll give you that water, but he's notwithstanding, of course. That's what I said. When they're both playing in, in games playing, I think Henderson leads back in, it's your pick. You can have him as a breakout. I do. I'm sorry for filling in. I hope you're right. Jason. I think Mike is also on my side just quietly on the side that he does, he's playing both sides. He's playing well. We are taking a one and believing on the other. Let's take a break and, and talk mail bag, mail bag. Oh, I wasn't sure I was going to be able to do it. Yeah. You, you were voiceless. I'm glad you didn't come in on Friday. That would have been a meucus. Oh, brother. This is the key. Did you hear Matt's mail bag? No. You didn't hear what happened. Oh, it was really exactly. Do we have a clip? No, we don't. Uh, the situation that happened, Mike, just to give you the quick TLDR is that Mike Jason show, I gave Jason the power to choose who does the mail back. Go. He chose Matt. When Matt was given the chance to do the mail back, he was dead silent. He didn't say anything. He was trying to set these guys up to help him. And then he just. was quiet to try to sell him down the river. So then I said, I'm not hitting the drop again. You're doing the music and the drop. And he did an effort at that. He did try to do that. Well, I'll have to jug it out. All right. If you have a question for the show, we're here to help go to the website, the fantasy footballers dot com, click the submit a question button or dial our voice mail hotline 302464 TFFB YouTube question from Josh, who is usually the first to lock in all three of their my guys? Is there an answer? I don't think there is one. I feel like I, I think you're I think you are the one that locks someone in the earliest. Like you, you usually have an off season. Like this year, Alec Pierce from the get go was going to be until recently when he hasn't been able to get healthy. But I think most years, Mike Evans for you, one year was super early. Like all off season, you were like, James and Williams was like, at all, you always have one guy that you're like very early and never sway on. I don't, I don't know that what you might have had yours down before anybody this year. Yeah, I might did. I would say most years there isn't really an answer to this. That's universal. It's just it's not great to lock. I mean, we give that advice to our listeners. Like you want to stay water. So like, that was actually one of the things I think we probably brought up in the, you know, maybe not in 10 things to remember. But basically, like, I want to wait a while because you can feel great about a situation in the personnel, the draft, all that stuff happens. I want to remember don't trade George Pickens, my guys to Jason. Yeah. Cause he was in the process. Yeah. Cause that do is all the board forever. Eric and Iowa City, Iowa, when considering strength of schedule, why do you put so much emphasis on weeks one through six rather than the entire season? Well, number one, uh, you want hot stars and fantasy football. The, it's silly, but this is the human part of the game, the emotion of, of waiting so long to see a player. And if someone has two awesome weeks, then it, hey, this is probably going to be a successful season. If they have two terrible weeks, there are busts and you need to, there's panic in the streets. Also with the changeover of just defense, this is all we have to go on right now. I can't project the entire season of, of, of how a defense is going to go. Some, the team that stinks against tight ends, they will reveal themselves to us over the course of the season. It may not be the same people. Yeah. I would also suggest look at the end of the year roster and then look at your draft and more than likely it will be surprising like, Oh, wow. I only drafted these three guys. You, you, you have a lot of change. The season is long trades, um, you know, swaps on the way, or what, getting off to a hot start will allow you to make trades high, uh, to grab people who get off to a slow start and, and, and do better there. So certainly getting off to, um, a, a good beginning to the season is very valuable in fantasy. Dabra and Jones, bro, Tennessee. When is it a bad idea to reach for a player in your draft? Top five or would you go six rounds? I feel like after five right around after that, everyone has their warts. So, you know, if there's a player in the, whose ADP say is in the seventh, but I'm in the fifth and it's like, I got a, I got a bad feeling in my gut that someone's going to take him. I'll just take that player then, but right around the five, six, round is where it starts to break open. The top of drafts and ADP are pretty good. Like, yeah, statistically, historically, especially in the last five years, people get things right more than they don't. Obviously, when you get to the later rounds, it's a scatter shot. So when you, when you reach too far in those early rounds, you're usually going to be making a mistake. And the thing is, is in those early rounds, ADP is more established towards not just that you're making a mistake and grabbing a worse player over a better, even if you reach and that guy is correct, you're not getting the value you could get by getting him the next round or, you know, obviously if you falls all the way to his ADP, you're just not getting the most value you can. Jeff and Madison Wisconsin, I haven't heard much talk about the dreaded RV Deadzone. Where would you say the Deadzone falls this year, Mike? So we did just briefly start talking about it. I had a whole thing that released on Saturday about the running back Deadzone on just the tips. You can go listen to it from this last weekend, but it's back. You know, the thing that we have seen and we're going to be talking about this on Wednesday as well is that running backs this year because of the health of the last couple years have been pushed up more than it was a couple years ago. It's always there. It just kind of shifts where it is. Yeah. Inside the draft. We'll talk about it in detail here in a couple of days. All right. I think I was going to say, I think it probably starts, and look, I love Skataboo, but I think right around there is where you start, you have guys where you're you're either concerned about the team or you're concerned about the timeshare. All right. We have sleepers on tomorrow's episode Wednesday. We'll cover the 10 tips and tricks. We'll have bus and values and a mayhem mock draft with Mike back in the building. Yeah. He was just afraid of the mayhem. Oh, I was very afraid. All right. Don't forget the UDK for life. Give away. Pick it up. Take my therapy away from me. Yeah. Yeah. The drafts are here. UltimateDraftGet.com. We'll talk to you tomorrow. Goodbye.