Speaker 1This is the Commodity Culture Podcast, where we interview prominent investors, fund managers, analysts, and company CEOs to give you an edge when it comes to investing in the commodity space. Clive Thompson, welcome to Commodity Culture. I want to begin with what appears to be a sovereign debt crisis accelerating at the moment. U.S. Treasury yields seemingly out of control here with the five-year now around 5%, 10-year at over 5.1, yields across the board rapidly rising. How bad could this get, and what could the economic implications be for the United States and the world at large?
Speaker 2Well, first of all, the yields are rising across almost every market. So whether we're looking at the European bond markets, the Japanese bond market, the U.K. bond market, or the U.S. and Canadian and Australian bond markets, they're all doing the same thing. We're seeing very high yields, the highest in some cases in 20 or 30 years, in other cases certainly for many years, on the 10-year yield and the 30-year yield. These yields are all pushing higher. So it does seem that things are moving together at the same time. This is a problem for all of these governments because they have debt which is maturing, and most of that debt was taken out at a time when interest rates were much lower than they are today, and most of that debt was taken out at a time when the national debt in each country was much lower than today. So here we are. Debt is maturing and has to be rolled over, but it's being rolled over at a higher interest rate than ever before. I won't say ever before because we've had very high yields back in the 1980s, 1980s, 1990s, but certainly that very high yields compared to the last 15 years since the global financial crisis. The level of debt compared to GDP is also in most countries close to the highest ever, perhaps excluding the war period. That means that there's a double whammy, higher interest rates on maturing debt, and secondly, the amount of debt is much, much higher than it was 10 or 15 years ago. So the level of debt compared to GDP is much, much higher than it was 10 or 15 or 20 years ago. This is creating a problem for all governments because the interest component of their budget is rising rapidly, much faster than gross domestic product, much faster than the economy is growing. And that's potentially going to create a crisis down the line because this interest element is forecast and will continue to rise rapidly for many years to come, even if the interest rates continue or start to come down at the federal funds level. But the fact is the bond yields are not coming down. So although we did see earlier a couple of years ago interest rates started to decline at the federal funds rate, the yields on government bonds did not decline. In fact, they went up. And now we've got rising interest rates at the Fed funds. And the yields on these bonds are still rising. So we've got a problem down the line. And in theory, when you have higher yields, it's bad for business, in theory. What that means is that businesses which borrow money, and most of them do, and in the United States, the S&P 500 has gotten near enough, makes no difference, a bit higher actually, than 100% debt to equity ratios on average. Now, that's obvious. It's skewed because there's some companies with more and some companies with less. But the debt to equity ratio of U.S. companies is pretty high. And that means that as interest rates rise, it costs them more money to do business, for example, to invest in new factories, to hire workers, to invent new products. So raising interest rates does tend to slow the economy. And that would apply to whether it's the short-term interest rates. I had the Fed Funds level or the longer-term interest rates at the 5, 10, 25, 30-year. Reason for that is companies borrow from a variety of periods. Some companies borrow from their bank based on short-term interest rates. But most have part of their debt, a good part usually, in the term of bonds that they've issued. So if the yield on a government bond rises, it means when the company wants to borrow new money, the cost of borrowing that new money is going to be higher. And that money, by way of a bond, will reflect whatever the government yield is plus whatever premium they have to pay over and above that. So rising government bond yields lead to rising costs for business. From an inflation perspective, the thought is that higher interest rates suppress inflation. But I don't feel that that is absolutely proven. I mean, the idea of raising interest rates is to slow the economy. And by slowing the economy, there's less pressure on prices. That's the economics 101. But the problem we've got with that is as you raise interest rates, you're increasing the cost to business. And businesses aren't in the habit of selling things for less than they cost. So if interest rates is a cost component that goes up, they're likely to put up their prices. So rising interest rates can be inflationary just as much as it's deflationary. That, I think, was your question. What's the impact on the economy? Was there another part to your question, Geoffrey?
Speaker 1No. You answered it very well. But I want to discuss the role of precious metals in just a moment in this whole scenario. But first, I want to ask about the U.S. dollar here, because there's been a lot of headlines about China selling their treasuries, Japan selling treasuries. Obviously, we saw Scott Besant kind of intervene, sell euros to buy yen. Many speculated this was because they're trying to prevent Japan from selling their treasuries here. And overall, there's a narrative out there that people, people are fleeing the dollar. Do you think that's accurate at this point? Or do you think that's mostly hyperbole or somewhere in between?
Speaker 2The U.S. dollar is currently at around 101 on the dollar index. The symbol for that is DXY. The DXY represents a basket of currencies against the U.S. dollar. It has fallen in recent weeks as low as 97, 96 level. But go back a year or two ago, and it was at 110. So one can say in the short term, the dollar is actually rising against a basket of currencies. It's not falling, although that depends on which currency you look at. Will the dollar fall heavily? I think the dollar is well supported by international trade. When you do international trade in any commodity, you're almost certainly quoting that commodity in dollars, and the purchase or sale of the commodity will take place in dollars. Not exclusively, but it's like turning around a mega tanker in the ocean. It takes a long, long time for this to change. So I don't think it's going to change rapidly. I don't think we're going to see a sudden collapse of the dollar. But we could see a lower dollar in the coming years. On the question of selling of treasuries, we are seeing that various governments are now reducing their exposure to the U.S. treasuries. And the reason for that is, first of all, there is the weaponization of the dollar, where to some extent, countries now fear that maybe, even though they had been the best friends with the United States, maybe they'll get on the wrong side of things, and they'll suddenly find that there are restrictions placed on their holdings of treasuries or dollars. The second worry is there appears to be no sign of reining in the U.S. government's debt. When President Trump came into power, this time, he brought in something called the Department of Government Efficiency with the promise that this would cut costs and reduce government debt. That lasted under the auspices of Elon Musk. That lasted only six months. Then they abandoned the project. Right now, we're back to the old days of let's spend as much money as we can, print our way, print the money and keep the economy afloat, which obviously is good for the people in power because it makes it look like everything's going well and you don't have huge numbers of people saying, "I'm impoverished," because you're flooding the market with money. So spending like there's no tomorrow seems to be the new norm, and that's a worry for other countries who are investing in U.S. dollars or investing in the government bond market. And that's why I think that that will continue. I don't think it's going to be easy to turn it around. And I think your last part of the question, what's that about? Did you ask me about that? I'm going to ask you about the impact on gold, Jesse.
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Speaker 2In the short run, the fear of a rise in interest is negative for precious metals. So we have the expectation, there'll be one more rise in interest rates this year from the Federal Reserve. And we have the expectation that there'll be no rises next year. That's kind of the central opinion, which you can find on the CME FedWatch. Obviously, those opinions can change. So the fear of another rise in interest rates is going to be negative for gold. The reason for that is people who would be alternating between gold and deposit will say, well, I'm going to get nothing more for my gold because it pays no interest, but I'm going to get more from my fixed deposit. It pays a quarter percent more. But that's a short-term impact as investors move around. So we might see a lower gold price in the coming weeks before the next interest rate rise is announced. I think after it's announced, provided the view is that there'll be no further rises in interest rates, that's when I think gold will start to take off. The driver for that, I think, will be government bond yields, which we just looked at are pushing to multi-year highs and multi-year highs on a debt level, which is a much higher percentage GDP than ever before. That worry means that it's likely, but not certain, that central banks will step in. They'll be invited to step in by the Treasury to support the bond market. How will the central bank do what they did in COVID, which was called quantitative easing? They may have a different name for it this time around, but quantitative easing basically means the central bank in the USA, the Federal Reserve, trints money and then buys bonds. By buying bonds, they stop their prices from falling and they stabilize yields or even lower yields if they push the price up of bonds. They stabilize the yields at the current level. I thought that in the USA, 5.3 to 5.3 was probably the most the USA would find acceptable. But as of today, on the US 30-year, we're looking at a yield, I'm just looking at it now, of 5.43. So, we've gone through that 5.3 mark quite a lot in the last few days, just a couple of days, actually. And we're now heading to 5.5%. So, when the government steps in, I'm sorry, when the Federal Reserve steps in, if it steps in, which I think is likely, more likely than not, they would be buying bonds and flooding the market with newly printed money. When that happens, that would be highly bullish for gold. So, the guessing game is, will it happen? And if it happens, when will it happen? Well, I think we're not far away. I don't think it's going to happen in the coming days. I think they're probably going to wait for the next interest rate rise. And if that has a negative effect on bond prices, a positive effect on bond prices, I think it's going to happen in the coming days. So, we're going
Speaker 1to have to wait and wait and wait. So, we're going to have to wait and wait. rises, you know, that one crude tool that the Fed has. And the theory is, as you laid out, you raise rates that slows down economic growth. In such a scenario, and of course, if we do see bond yields continue to rise, how does that all play out for silver specifically? Because it has such a massive industrial component, one would imagine if we do eventually see an economic slowdown globally, maybe perhaps even a global recession, that the industrial demand for silver would fall down. dramatically and thus affect the price. Do you think that's a likely outcome? Do you think that silver's monetary component would kick in more than it already is at that point and perhaps compensate? We'd love to get your thoughts there.
Speaker 2Stocks at the CME Comex warehouses are around 50% lower than they were in 2021. In March, April, we started to see a stabilization of the CME stocks and they even started to rise very slightly. But the latest numbers in the last 30 days show that the stocks at CME warehouses are once again falling. That's indicative of the fact that above-ground supplies of silver are not increasing. They're going down. Every ounce of silver, of course, has its price at which people would be willing to sell it. But I think the two key drivers are, one, the industrial use where, yes, in a recession, if we do go into a recession, the usage will go down. And I'm not actually forecasting recession as such. I think we're kind of in a recession, but it won't be appearing in the official figures. But the demand for silver could go down. But it won't go down a lot. And it won't go down so that industrial usage goes below the mined production. And the second thing we've got going on is the sentiment factor. Obviously, I think that silver will do what gold does anyway. So they're both affected by the same type of thing. But sentiment is also largely driven by what's happening in other markets. So if we do see the stock market coming down a bit, or even stabilizing, I think money will move away from stocks into precious metals. We're already seeing a move, and that's visible to me, into the mining stocks, i.e., even though if I take the silver and gold as of today and look back over a little bit of history to some months ago when they were at the same price, we're seeing that the mining stocks are at higher prices. They're starting to rise. They're still very cheap, in my opinion, but money is flowing into them. Only a tiny, tiny fraction of the amount of money in the world's biggest company, Nvidia, would need to go into gold and silver stocks to move them substantially. So it's very small movement would move the price of the precious metals market a lot. And I think that will happen if people see some sort of stability in the prices of the tech stocks, or if they do, in fact, fall. And I think you were going to ask me a question, whether we're expecting a crash, Jesse. Was that kind of where we're going?
Speaker 1Yeah. Yeah. I would love to get your thoughts there on both the potential for a crash in the broad market and in the overall economy as well, massively overstretched valuations by so many metrics. Do you think that if we do continue to see the bond market turn into a real crisis, could that end up being the pin that pops the AI bubble as many are calling it today?
Speaker 2Yes, it's possible. I think I should say that history does not tell us that high valuations or overvaluations or expensive shares leads to a crash. There is no evidence that when things are expensive, there's a crash. There is, however, evidence that crashes occur when prices are high. But there's been many times in history when stocks have been at very high levels, but no crash has followed. What does follow from high prices, and this is borne out by empirical evidence, is that when valuations are high, future returns are much less than when they're low. So if you start with high valuations like today, your long-term returns over the next decade are probably going to be lower than if we were at relatively normal or low valuations. So the S&P 500 is on a trailing price-earnings ratio of something like 27 times earnings, and that should go down to 20 times earnings. But both of those numbers, that's looking forwards, I mean, both of those numbers are way above the historical norm for the S&P 500 of 16 or 17 times. That's trailing. and maybe you could even say it depends on if you take a shorter period it could say it's 20 times but you know we're at 27 times we're way we're at very high valuation levels having said that that's a very distorted market because those high valuations largely come from a relatively small group of companies which are perceived to be the future winners and changes of whatever mankind is going to have so the those those popular stocks are the ones which are most most at risk if we have a market decline i think the ones which are the market leaders of today will be the ones which lead the market downwards in a decline there's many many stocks in the usa and around the world which are far more at far more reasonable valuations so i'm not the sort of person to say should come out of stocks at all but i do think that one has to be reducing one's exposure to the technology sector the semiconductor sector the data center sector they all seem to be rather overvalued and i've reduced my exposure to this sector i still have a little bit but i've come down very very substantially and i'm now invested in other companies which are on lower price earnings ratios and to some extent offer appear to offer lower potential growth but i think it's more assured growth than some of these high tech stocks which have got a lot of growth being priced in which i have reasons to think probably won't turn out to be true
Speaker 1are you still bullish because last time we had a conversation you were bullish on the gold and silver miners do you still feel that way today is this a sector you would be allocating capital to right now would you be sitting on the sidelines in anticipation of a potential correction in the broad market that would of course throw the baby out with the bathwater miners would obviously get hit in that scenario so one could take advantage of bargain prices would love to get your thoughts right now on the
Speaker 2miners those who bought into the gold miners silver miners a year ago two years ago are doing very well those who bought in january are not doing well if you were a purchaser of gold and silver miners a year or two years ago when i first started talking about them you probably have more than enough and therefore you probably don't need to be buying anymore on the other hand if you have a portfolio which contains little or no exposure to that sector i think it's a great time to be picking them up while they're still on quite reasonable well not still on they're going to stay on reasonable price settings ratios until the price rises if gold and silver rise as i think is likely to happen after the central banks step in and start using quantitative easing and i think that pushes gold and record a gold and silver past the previous records at that time i can't tell you when that happens but i'm thinking that we are approaching the period when it should be happening soon then gold and silver miners will be on price earnings ratios way below 10 but for the ones which are producing and that makes them very good value and also pretty good growth because they'll all be increasing their dividends now there is a nice feature about the gold and silver miners which is that they're not going to be able to sell most gold and silver mining companies is that they have relatively little debt to equity ratios many have no debt at all and those which do have debt it's very low to put that in perspective the stocks making up the s&p 500 have a debt to equity ratio around a hundred percent which is high by historic standards which makes them riskier in a crisis where we have if we do get into a crisis we're going to have a lot of debt and we're going to have a lot of debt into a situation where stocks are declining people will sell off the companies which have got high debt levels because debt becomes in a in a market crash or a market decline or a bear market debt does tend to become a bad thing as perceived by investors so they'll sell the highest sell off the highest debt to equity companies in the usa and given that the gold mining sector silver mining sector has got very little debt to equity ratios very low or zero for many i think that's where i'm going to be able to sell off the highest debt to equity companies in the usa money will head so overall i'm positive on those shares even though i wouldn't be buying anymore because i bought in my case and many other people who i deal with have bought them two years ago and i'm quite happy with the profits and maybe even would think of unloading a bit if the price went much higher yeah
Speaker 1that's maybe a follow-up question to ask because i'm one of the people in that position for me it feels like there's still so many tailwinds behind the sector but i have i don't know if you pretty much loaded up on on gold and silver stocks two years ago and and these things are up you know 300 some of them and so there is the temptation there to say well how greedy do i want to get what what are your thoughts there on those who have already made those kinds of unrealized gains do you do you think it's prudent to take some chips off the table do you think the setup is so strong that perhaps it's worth holding on for the long run how would you approach that situation
Speaker 2first of all the level of profit that you have on a stock should never be a factor as to whether you buy or sell it if you buy or sell it based or sell it rather based on the amount of profit you've got you're acting emotionally and you should not do that what you should do is what's called position sizing what that means is when you look at the portfolio you should have an ideal size for each position in your portfolio and you should have an ideal size for each position in your portfolio and hopefully the portfolio isn't just gold and silver mining stocks so in my asset allocation table which i publish every year at the beginning of january this year uh i think the figure i've just looked at it now the figure was 15 in gold and silver including mining stocks and seven percent sorry in gold and seven percent in silver and including mining stocks that would be 22 percent uh that's a lot higher than it was the year before and the reason it's higher is because prices of those stocks had been rising so probably anyone who had 22 at the start of this year probably still has around 22 exposure to the precious metals sector some of which would be mining stocks i don't think one should be going much beyond that but when you're looking at the portfolio and you've got these large profits if as a result of these large profits you're uh for the sector the gold and silver mining sector at a level which is still acceptable you don't need to sell and you shouldn't sell because of the profit and each individual position you shouldn't sell because of the profit unless one of your positions has become so large that it's unwieldy now what is so large so if you're it depends if your average position size is let's say one percent in each stock that would mean uh in theory you could have a hundred stocks and it goes to two percent well that's neither here nor there if it goes to three percent it's still neither here nor there but if it goes to five percent well you're perhaps getting a little bit top heavy and you want to reduce the exposure at that point you should be looking at the company seeing what its prospects are if the prospects are excellent you keep most of your position and sell a little if the prospects are awful which is very unlikely at the moment then of course you can exit the entirety of the position but i really don't like the idea of exiting the entirety of most positions because other positions are otherwise if you sell everything with a profit you end up with a portfolio of losers not good
Speaker 1great analysis there what are your thoughts on other commodities right now uranium copper other base metals energy are you looking at any of those sectors for potential opportunity right now
Speaker 2the way to play other commodities is generally not to buy the commodity itself so you wouldn't go and buy copper you'd go and buy companies which are involved in copper in some way whether they're mining it refining it or doing something else with it the price of copper recently the last few days in fact hit an all-time record i'm looking at the price on my screen now i see the coppers at six dollars 75 i think the record was six dollars 93 a day or two ago all-time record it's more than double the price since uh let's say yeah two in three years less than three about three years it's doubled in price the reason it's doubling in price is perhaps the same reason as the demand for silver's going up it's the electronics industry there's a lot of rollout in electronics for uh not not the at the micro level for copper but at the cable level undersea cables cables going to data centers new generators there's ongoing and growing demand for copper worldwide and the supply of copper to the market is not increasing um and that's why the copper price is going up so if you want to play those the copper price by all means go ahead and buy copper miners and they are not very expensive and the good news if you're a lover of gold and silver is that many precious metal miners also mine copper and if you buy a copper company which is mostly mining copper quite often they're also mining gold and silver so you're getting all three metals with many companies you're getting all three metals in one investment which is a good thing if you like commodities in general as for uranium um I've looked into the uranium companies from time to time, and to be honest with you, I don't see any of them as being particularly cheap, therefore less attractive. The price of uranium probably will go up because it's very likely we'll build a lot more, we'll need a lot more nuclear power stations in the future, and that will increase the demand for uranium. Good for the uranium companies, but the prices that you pay for the shares, I feel, are to a large extent reflecting that future, which will come, but it doesn't mean to say the share price goes up a lot more. It's kind of half done, let's say.
Speaker 1Let's step outside of the commodity sector and talk about any other areas of the market that you think present an attractive value proposition right now. This is also a selfish question for myself because my portfolio is 95% commodities. Now, since inception six years ago, it's handily outperformed the SMP, so I'm happy with it, but part of my fear is that, quote, don't confuse brains with a bull market. Perhaps I've just been lucky that I've caught this upswing in the commodities sector, and I think I need to diversify a little bit, perhaps get into some more defensive positions, less risky bets. Is there anywhere in the market you're looking at for value outside of commodities right now?
Speaker 2Yeah, absolutely. Well, first of all, the small cap sector has some absolutely amazing companies at very cheap valuations. It's an overlooked sector, unloved sector, so you could just buy the entire sector through a small cap ETF or a small cap actively managed fund, or, and I prefer to do this, go and try and find small cap companies which offer amazing potential at a reasonable price. And you will find a lot of oddball companies. I won't, I'm not going to say names because I don't want to give any investment advice here, but for example, when I, when I've been hunting, I found companies which do very unusual things on good valuations and which appear to have a moat. For example, I found a company in Japan which rents pajamas to hospitals, and they've got hundreds of customers, and it seems the hospitals are quite happy to rent, pay rent to, to, for pajamas, rather than run the pajama service themselves. I found a company in one of the Scandinavian countries which sells software which is used by security forces all around the world when you go through the borders. You know, if you go through a border, there's always going to be a risk that the software, the border control will say, unlock your phone, we want to check what you've got on it. And of course, people these days are starting to take newly purchased phones with nothing on it. Because of that. But it can happen that they want to download your phone, they'll pop it into a machine. So this company sells software. It's also used by the police and security forces around the world to check on criminals who, where they've confiscated the phone. It's a very niche product, and the company's not, not on it, at an, on an expensive price. And the more you look, the more you'll find little companies doing unusual things, great things, and with potential growth ahead of them. You just have to spend your time looking for them. But it's become a lot easier to look in the modern world, because you can simply go to any of the AI tools, which now are pretty good at investment research, they weren't two years ago, but now they're pretty good. And say something like, find me a bunch of companies below 1 billion, with growth prospects and a price-selling ratio below 10, which is very cheap, it's half, less than half, it's a third of what these companies are selling. It's a third of what the US market is. It will find a nice bunch of companies for you. Then you have to spend a bit more time looking into them. Do they have cash in the balance sheet? Are they safe? But there are tools, financial tools out there, which can do this very quickly and very easily for you. With much more, you know, you couldn't do this 30 years ago, unless you'd read The Intelligent Investor, and then you studied the companies one by one. Now you can study tens or hundreds of companies in a single day, thanks to the AI. Thanks to AI and thanks to the financial tools which are available. So I would encourage people to do that. That's a small cap sector. Otherwise, Hong Kong and Japan are on pretty low multiples at the moment for good reason. There's obviously some risks in both places, but you'll get a nice dividend yield, you get a low price-selling ratio, and you'll get a lot of growth out of Asia in general. Last but not least, emerging market, Pacific Basin, definitely worth considering the in those areas.
Speaker 1Great summary. Tell us about the Little Trot series of books, what you're doing there. I think it's fantastic, educating youth about economics and investing, and also where people can go who want to follow your work online.
Speaker 2I wrote the Little Trot series of children's books for six-year-olds to 12-year-olds. These are books written in Dr. Seuss-style poetry, telling a story of a little boy who has financial adventures. So book one is called, Little Trot Learns to Save Money. Book two is Little Trot Discovers Inflation. And then we go through other books about the Great Gold Rush. There's a book on buy-to-let tenancy, where Little Trot decides to rent out a house to the goblins who don't pay the rent and leave the trash the place. And there's lessons to be learned. But the main lesson here is one of vocabulary, because these books contain the kind of vocabulary words, related to finance and investments, that I wish I knew when I left school at the age of 18. So a child who reads these books at the age of eight or nine will start to understand what is a stock. What is the stock market? Because there's a book on that particular subject, Little Trot Invests in Stocks. He'll start to understand the difference between renting and buying a house. A lot of children, even at the age of 18, still don't know if their parents own the house. So they'll start to understand the difference between renting and buying a house. They don't know if they rent it. They don't know if they have a mortgage. And in some cases, they don't know if their parents have any debts and whether they can pay those debts. Read the books. They'll have a clearer understanding. And so these books, Little Trot, are available on this one's Little Trot Invest in Stocks. They're lovely pictures. If you're going to a birthday party, your child's going to a birthday party, the parents will love it if you bring their child a book. So if you're going to a birthday party, the parents will love it if you bring their child a book. So if you're going to a birthday party, the parents will love it if you bring their child a book that the child is going to love, which has an educational element and is not encouraging the child to go online and play computer games.
Speaker 1Great. Well, I'm going to put a link in the description below. Is Amazon the best place to buy these books?
Speaker 2Yeah, Amazon is where you can get them. They're not in the bookshops, because I'm still trying to figure out how to do that. But Amazon will be a place to get it. You can get a free copy of book one on my website. Go to clivethompson.com. And you'll be able to download the full book one free of charge onto your iPad or your iPhone or whatever, and read it on your laptop with your child to see what it's like. So there's no restriction there. A lot more information, a lot of interesting things on my website, clivethompson.com.
Speaker 1Great. Well, I'm going to put links to both an Amazon page where you can purchase the books, as well as clivethompson.com. Clive, as always, thank you so much for coming on the show and sharing your insights.
Speaker 2Pleasure. Thank you very much, Jesse. And thank you to all your listeners and viewers for the lovely comments.
Speaker 1Thank you for joining us today on Commodity Culture. Earn up to a 4% annual yield on your physical gold paid in gold ounces through monetary metals. Go to monetary-metals.com slash commodity to find out how to put your gold to work for you. Link is in the show notes below.
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