1120: Bold Predictions

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If you want to turn them into an analysis, tracker, deck outline, or workflow, you can keep shaping. You stay in control, reviewing the work, and choosing the final result. Put Chat GPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting work mode. Available on plus and pro plans. This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharysa. What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zacharysa, and in this episode 1120 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in. Bold prediction pieces are really popular. People love consuming them, because it allows us, especially an analyst like myself, to really stop thinking in range of outcomes. I can just think about a single outcome. The problem I've always had with bold predictions content, though, is that they're often not totally based in reality. So with this episode each, and with the newsletter that I send out, I attempt to explain the why. I genuinely think that all the predictions that I talk about are very possible. Maybe that means some of them aren't quite as hot-takey as you'll see elsewhere. But I do think just because it's bold predictions content doesn't mean that we can't learn something. So on today's show, I'm bringing you 10 bold predictions for this upcoming fantasy football season. Realistic bold predictions. Bold predictions that I genuinely think could come true. Of course, only some of them are going to hit. I'm usually happy if like five or six of them do. But that doesn't mean that they aren't possible. No, I've got five additional predictions that I'm sending out in the Late Round newsletter on Wednesday. So make sure you subscribe there. You can head to lateround.com, click newsletter, and subscribe for absolutely free. There's also the Late Round draft guide that you can check out while you're there. But without further ado, let's get to bold prediction number one. Terry McLaurin and Stefan Diggs, will both finish as top 24 wide receivers. This one's bold because according to Fantasy Pro's consensus average draft position, neither player is being drafted inside the top 24 at the position. And Stefan Diggs is well outside the top 24. These guys are also teammates and that could limit their individual ceilings. But here's why this could happen. Teammates finishing together as wide receiver twos in fantasy, it's not as uncommon as you might think. Since 2011, we've averaged about four and a half teams as team mate pairings finishing in the top 24 together per year. And this year, one of them could be Washington. Obviously, we like Dallas, we like Cincinnati, but why not Washington? I'm just not convinced that these two older wide receivers are cooked. Terry McLaurin is coming off a season where he posted the best per route run numbers of his entire career. Stefan Diggs last year, he ranked 10th in yards per outrun and his targets per outrun rate ranked in the 90th percentile. Look, I really do like Antonio Williams and I'm excited for him to be able to do that. I'm excited for what he might be able to do in the NFL. But overall, this Washington offense lacks pass catching firepower. And with McLaurin stretching the field, Stefan Diggs playing more underneath, a high percentage of the team's targets could just be funneled to these two wide receivers. And if this David Blau offense is better than advertised, this prediction can definitely come true. Both Kenneth Walker and Chase Brown will outscore Jonathan Taylor. This one's bold because Taylor, is locked in as a first round pick. Walker and Brown, they're more second rounders. Here's why this can happen though. The Colts were so good to start last season. They were first in the NFL in points per drive, first in drives ending in touchdowns, and first by a wide margin in percentage of touchdowns that came via the ground through week 10. It was the perfect storm for Jonathan Taylor. Through 10 weeks, the Colts had run just 11% of their offensive plays while trailing by seven or more points. That was the second lowest rate in the league. That's just tough production to bank on year over year. And Jonathan Taylor, he needs those positive scripts to really hit a massive ceiling. That's what we've seen historically. I talked about this on the Late Round Podcast with Rich Rebar not long ago, but Taylor's had some of the most extreme win-loss splits of any running back in fantasy football. Even last year, during those first 10 games, he averaged 31.5 PPR points per game in wins. That fell to just over 11 points per game in their two losses. Over the last three years, Taylor's averaged 13.7 PPR points per game in losses. He's averaged 11 more points per game in wins. So what I'm basically saying here is that Taylor's profile is a little bit more fragile than the market's making it seem. Indianapolis's current win total is 7.5. Their top wide receiver has not been healthy, and their quarterback is coming off an Achilles injury. Meanwhile, Chase Brown averaged 21 PPR points per game last year with Joe Burrow. He's been one of the best passers-by and one of the best pass-catching backs in football over the last couple of years. Kenneth Walker's moving to a Chiefs team that faced the fewest stack boxes in football a year ago, and even with Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco, they were top 10 in success rate. Just a slight bump in receiving usage for Kenneth Walker could take him to the moon in fantasy football. All three of these backs should be drafted high, but if the Colts take a step back offensively this year, it's not that crazy to think that both Chase Brown and Kenneth Walker could outscore Jonathan Taylor. Luther Burden will be a top 10 dynasty wide receiver by the end of the season. This one's bold. It's obviously more of a dynasty take, but it's bold because Burden's ADP on keep trade cut is currently wide receiver 17. Here's why it could happen though. There's a very real chance, and I've thrown this take out there before, but there's a very real chance that Roma Dunze is a better traditional wide receiver than Luther Burden is. But to me, Burden really fits the PPR scammer profile. Ben Johnson knows how to scheme his guys open and get them into space. Burden's yards after the catch ability could be a cheat code for this offense. Back in college, he was well above the 80th percentile in receiving yards after the catch per reception, and he had a 98th percentile broken tackles per catch rate. As a lot of you know, the ZAP model absolutely loved Luther Burden. But he did nothing as a rookie for me to think that he doesn't have a lead upside. He finished the 2025 season with the third highest yards per out run rate of any of the last two years. Any first year wide receiver since 2011 with at least 100 or more routes run. From week 11 through 17, he ranked 10th in targets per out run, second in yards per out run, and fifth in PPR points per out run. Week 11 was also that inflection point for the Bears where they started giving Burden more than a 50% route share. There's certainly volatility with Luther Burden. A Dunze and Colston Loveland should command a healthy number of targets in that offense. Burden himself didn't get over a 70% route share mark in a single game. But if things come together and he builds off of what he did down the stretch, of course he could have a big season. And given that he's barely going to be 23 years old when the season ends, that kind of breakout could easily make him a top 10 dynasty wide receiver at the end of the season. The best tight end with the last name Ferguson will be Terrence Ferguson. This one's bold because Terrence Ferguson's mostly an afterthought in drafts though he is getting some steam. And he's currently in the playoffs. He's currently being selected as tight end 24. Jake Ferguson is the tight end 13. Look, from a projections perspective, Jake Ferguson looks better than Terrence Ferguson. He's in a high powered offense. We've seen him produce before. And Ferguson was a top 12 tight end in PPR points per game last year. Jake Ferguson, that is. He also wasn't nearly as good when both George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb were healthy. In fact, across five games where CeeDee Lamb failed to reach a 50% route share mark, Ferguson averaged 17 PPR points per game. Outside of those weeks, that number was just 9.2. Unsurprisingly, Jake Ferguson's peripherals took a huge hit last year when both Lamb and Pickens were on the field with him. His 0.3 PPR points per route run in that scenario ranked outside the top 40 at the tight end position. His targets per route run rate was 19.4%. That was 31st among tight ends with 200 or more routes. His yards per route run rate was 19.4%. His yards per route run with both George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb on the field was 1.06. That would have ranked 60th. This isn't to say that every one of Jake Ferguson's routes are going to come with both of those guys on the field, but many of them will. And that's scary for his upside. With Terrence Ferguson, we're looking at a second year tight end playing on a team that used heavy personnel to top 10 rate last year. Now with late round tight ends, we should be looking for a clear path to those guys becoming a top two target on their team. Ferguson probably won't be able to do that. won't get there with Devonte Adams and Puka Nakuza. Tua. However, there's not that much depth behind them. And there are two other factors that we should be looking at. Previous season average depth of target and previous season slot rate. Ferguson essentially doubled up every other Rams tight end last year in slot rate. And his ADOT was six yards higher than any other tight end in football. The Rams moved him all over the field and they let him get vertical. There's a world where Jake Ferguson just isn't that big of a part of the Cowboys offense. You've got Lamb healthy, Pickens back, and a rising player in Ryan Flanoy. All the while, Terrence Ferguson could carve out a sincere target share in an offense that desperately needs someone to step up. So this bold prediction, it's not as crazy as it sounds. Malik Willis will finish as a top 12 quarterback. This one's bold because Willis' ADP, it's past QB 20 on most platforms. But this can happen because we know that rushing is a cheat code at quarterback in fantasy football. In his three starts with Green Bay, Willis averaged 11.8 points per game via rushing alone. Now that's probably not sustainable, but it's not like it was Jared Goff doing that. Willis was a prolific runner in college. He's already shown it off in the NFL. Imagine a world where that rushing points per game number drops by like three or four points. It's not an unreasonable expectation when you consider his collegiate rushing history, and the lack of weapons in Miami, and the fact that negative game scripts could force him to scramble a lot. Since 2011, we've seen 25 quarterbacks throw the ball 300 more times while averaging at least seven points per game via rushing. Of those 25, 22 of them finished as top 10 options at quarterback in points per game. Some sort of passing production will need to be there in order for this prediction to hit. And really, we don't know yet what kind of passer Malik Willis is across a larger sample. Obviously, the weapons there, they don't give us that much confidence. But Willis doesn't have to be insane through the air for this to come true. Just look at Justin Fields. He's a bad football thrower compared to other starters. He's not accurate, but over the last three years, among quarterbacks with 300 or more pass attempts, Fields ranks eighth in fantasy points per dropback. You know who ranks even higher than Justin Fields? Anthony Richardson. It's all the same exact thesis. It's not going to be pretty, you might not want to watch it, but it's at least possible. Jordan Mason will outscore Tony Pollard. This one's technically bold because according to Consensus ADP, Mason's drafted nearly two rounds after Tony Pollard. I think this definitely can happen, like very easily. This is probably the weakest bold prediction in terms of hot-takey-ness on this entire list. I think that Tony Pollard might have a volume and offensive situation problem this year. The Titans are not expected to be a top-half offense this year. Their offensive line is projected to be one of the worst in the league. Meanwhile, in games with Tajay Spears last year, Pollard had just a 54% slump in the first half of the season. He's not going to be able to make it to the playoffs, but he's going to be able to get a 50% snap share and a 40% route share. We've seen that backfield split up during the preseason. Maybe that's all just noise and nothing will come of it, but it at least signals that the Tennessee backfield could be more of a split than the market expects. And with Pollard posting sub.8 yards per route run rates in three straight seasons, I'm concerned about that pass-catching profile. It's a pass-catching profile on a team that could be trailing a lot this year. Meanwhile, Jordan Mason's not typically the guy that I go after in fantasy, but I like him this year. I'm less concerned about his competition versus Tony Pollard's, if I'm being honest. It's a similar role overall. Aaron Jones is 31 years old. He's seen his per-route run efficiency drop in each of the last three seasons. And if nothing else, Mason's at least really good on the ground. His adjusted yards after contact per attempt was over.7 yards higher than Aaron Jones last season, and he ranked third in the NFL in explosive run rate. Minnesota's offense should be better this year too. They were bottom 10 in drives ending in touchdowns a season ago. And with Kyler Murray's mobility under center, alongside what should be a top half of the league offensive line, we should see better lanes for Jordan Mason. So yeah, ADP says that this one's kind of bold. I don't think it's bold whatsoever. But I do think that Jordan Mason can easily outscore Tony Pollard. Jalen Waddell will finish as a top 8 wide receiver. This one's bold because according to consensus ADP, Jalen Waddell's a receiver 21. But I think it can happen because Waddell played 5 years in Miami, 4 of which came with Tyreek Hill on the roster. Among over 160 wide receivers who ran 400 or more routes during that 4 year stretch with Tyreek Hill, Waddell ranked 11th in yards per outrun despite ranking 32nd in targets per outrun. Maybe that means he lacks that target earning potential. But there's evidence this is simply a Tyreek Hill thing. Because when Hill's been off the field during this time, targets per outrun rate rises to 9th. His yards per outrun for what it's worth is 2nd best in all of football without Tyreek Hill on the field. Waddell has played in an offense with a positive EPA per play just twice in his career. During that 2 year stretch, he ranked 5th in yards per outrun and 11th in PPR points per outrun. Now he's moving to a Denver team that's ranked in the top half of the league in EPA per play over the last 2 seasons. And it's a group that ranks 11th in two years. They've ranked 22nd. And Denver, without an insane amount of wide receiver talent, they've targeted that position at the 11th highest rate per route run over the last 2 years. The Broncos also rank 7th over this stretch in wide receiver yards after the catch per reception. Waddell himself over the last 4 years, he's been a fringe top 25 player in yak per reception. But he's 7th best among wideouts with average depth of targets above 10 yards. In other words, he's still creating after the catch. The Broncos are likely going to play Waddell in that Z role, moving him all over the formation. We saw them try this last year with Troy Franklin, and while it was essentially a failure, or eventually a failure, Franklin himself had a 5 game stretch with a 27% target share. Imagine one of the most efficient wide receivers in the game over the last 5 years stepping into that role. That's why Jalen Waddell might smash this year. Dalton Kincaid will finish as a top 5 tight end. This one's bold because fantasy managers are kind of over Dalton Kincaid, and on some platforms, he's going around tight end 15. But look guys, Dalton Kincaid's 2025 was actually very good. George Kittle is the only tight end since 2020 who's been able to top Kincaid's yards per route run rate from last year, and among tight ends with 200 or more routes run, Kincaid's PPR points per route run average was the absolute best over that time frame. He was seen as a top 5 tight end, and Dalton Kincaid is the only tight end who's been targets at a really strong clip too. He had an 86% targets per route run rate, and in 2024 to pile on, it was in the 98th percentile. So why is he not getting more love? Really, it's just usage. He's been banged up over the last couple of years, and it's led to him ranking outside the top 25 in tight end route share. Imagine a world where Kincaid, a player who's been extremely good at earning targets and gaining yards on a per route run basis, is healthy. And because he's healthy, it's an uptick in playing time. That's all we really need for this prediction to hit. Jordan Love or Jared Goff will outscore Joe Burrow. This one's bold because Burrow's drafted as a QB4, Goff is the QB16, and Jordan Love is the QB18. This one seems kind of crazy. It seems like it's not even possible. But listen to this. Joe Burrow can end up winning MVP this season. They look better on defense, the offensive line should be more cohesive than what we're used to, and obviously Joe Burrow has the weapons to make things work. This is strictly a fantasy football take. Burrow hasn't been running as much as he did earlier in his career. Over the last three seasons, he's averaged.5 design rushes per game. That's resulted in two seasons with fewer than.9 rushing points per game. He used to average closer to 1.5 to 2.0 per game. That's impacted his fantasy points per dropback numbers. In 2021 and 2022, he had fantasy points per dropback numbers of.53 and.52. Over the last three seasons, we've seen him at.37,.52, and.47. Even if we just focus on those last two seasons, Burrow's been QB11 and fantasy points per dropback. He's at the same mark in that statistic as Jordan Love. Jared Goff is a couple of spots ahead. Now, the reason Burrow's looks so favorably in fantasy is because he's simply thrown the ball more. During that time frame, Burrow's averaged over 40 dropbacks per game. Jared Goff's a little bit over 35, and Jordan Love is at 31.1. There's a very real scenario here where the Lions have just as bad of a defense as Cincinnati does. The Lions also have an awesome schedule. And there are outs here for Jordan Love too. The Packers' defense just plays a little bit worse, and they become a little bit more pass-heavy with Josh Jacobs sidelined. And honestly, they probably should be a little bit more pass-heavy. Love's been the sixth best quarterback by EPA per dropback over the last two years. Jared Goff, by the way, is first. Joe Burrow is eighth. We see pocket passing quarterbacks shift around rankings all the time when looking at preseason expectations versus postseason results. And Joe Burrow, at this point, should be treated as more of a pocket passer. There isn't that much recent evidence to say otherwise. So why couldn't Jared Goff and Jordan Love simply fall into a little bit more touchdown luck in a fantasy football situation that's just as advantageous. After September, Tucker Kraft will outscore Trey McBride. This one's bold because Kraft's getting drafted multiple rounds after McBride is. But I do think this definitely can happen. Trey McBride's 2025 was insane. He was great. I don't want to take anything away from him. But he also ran 120 more routes than any other tight end in the league. At his.46 PPR points per route run rate, if McBride had simply tied for the league lead in tight end routes run instead of leading it by 120, he would have averaged over 3.2 fewer PPR points per game last season. That would have taken him down to 15.3 PPR points per game. Now, there's nothing wrong with 15 points per game. Don't get me wrong. But McBride also saw 18 end zone targets last year. That was the second highest mark from a tight end since 2016. That, and in turn, his touchdowns, would have been the second highest mark from a tight end since 2016. His touchdown total is not going to be easy to repeat. We also know that Marvin Harrison Jr. was banged up throughout the 2025 season. When Harrison was on the field with McBride last year, that.46 PPR points per route run rate fell to.41. Essentially, there are a lot of ways for McBride to regress this year. And that gives us an opportunity for this bold prediction to hit. Tucker Kraft is coming off that ACL. It may take a handful of weeks for him to start seeing his back up to speed. Hence the qualifier for this prediction. Why couldn't Tucker Kraft outscore Trey McBride from there? Kraft's PPR points per route run rate was significantly better last year at.59. It's been nearly identical over the last two seasons compared to McBride. Kraft went down in week nine last year. Through eight weeks, he was technically ahead of McBride in PPR points per game. And I think Kraft could just be featured more in this passing game. The Packers wide receiver room this year, is shallower. And not only that, I think they could be more pass heavy, like I just talked about with Jordan Love. So I think this one could work out because we've kind of already seen it work out. Like I said, there are five more bold predictions that are going to hit your inbox with the Late Round newsletter on Wednesday. So make sure you're subscribed. Go to lateround.com, click newsletter, and submit your email address. Otherwise, that's it for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you haven't subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are registering for it. Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening, everyone. I will be back in your ears with Becoming a Best Ball Bro, the season finale. That's going to drop on Wednesday morning. And then we have the Late Round show live on our YouTube channel at noon Eastern on Wednesday. And then later this week, we have an episode of Late Round Perspectives. I'll talk to you guys soon. I'll talk to you soon. Guaranteed human.