The Blue Zones concept, popularized by Dan Buettner, claims that certain regions around the world have populations living longer due to shared lifestyle habits. While rooted in early demographic research in Sardinia, Okinawa, and Loma Linda, the scientific validity of the idea has been widely questioned. Critics argue that the data used to identify these zones are riddled with errors—such as misreported ages, pension fraud, and unreliable birth records—especially in areas with weak government systems or wartime record destruction. Studies show that centenarian clusters often appear in regions with poor record-keeping, not because of healthy lifestyles, but due to data inconsistencies. Even within the original research, scientists like Michelle Poulain spent years verifying ages, and some blue zones—like Nicoya—were later found to be significantly smaller or less valid after error corrections. Furthermore, the lifestyle advice offered (e.g., eating goat’s milk, drinking red wine, or avoiding meat) lacks evidence and often contradicts actual data, such as Sardinians’ higher smoking rates or the fact that Okinawans drink less red wine than average. The popular narrative also overlooks darker social dynamics, like gender-based neglect of elderly women. The debunking of Blue Zones is not just about data accuracy but reflects a deeper critique of how wellness myths are constructed: they cherry-pick positive elements while ignoring complexity, inconsistency, and structural flaws. Ultimately, while Blue Zones may highlight some interesting cultural patterns, its claims about universal longevity through lifestyle are overstated, misleading, and detached from rigorous scientific validation.
okay uh for the first time in a long time it is straightforwardly your job to tag us
oh man so i haven't we haven't done a mic a micisode in a while i've just really forgotten
how nervous it makes me what that you are going to judge my terrible tagline that's that's really
the dynamic just a long stony silence after whatever you say yeah that's the vibe is that
it aubrey uh hi everybody and welcome to maintenance phase the podcast that's getting
you out of the blue zones and into the true zones what that's bait that's bait you wanted to see how
disapproving
nailed it i was about to be like i can't believe you think i would judge you harshly but i am
judging you harshly yeah that is what's going on absolutely uh i'm aubrey gordon i'm michael
humps if you would like to support the show you can do that at patreon.com maintenance phase
uh you can also subscribe through apple podcast premium
it's the same content content michael aubrey today today you are taking us into the true zone oh god
you're gonna make it a thing all episode i'm gonna call it back it's my finest work yet
what do you know about blue zones actually do you have like a definition are you are you aware of
the netflix documentary and stuff so my understanding of blue zones is that the idea is that there are
some parts of the
world where people live longer than other parts of the world yes i've been trying to stay fresh
on it and like avoiding coverage of it which has been hard because there has been like a high
profile debunking yes of blue zones as i understand it yes i really went on a journey with this aubrey
i want to take you on a journey with me i can't wait this is one of those episodes where people
got really into the concept but then people also got really into the concept of the concept of the
debunking and like neither one of them are really justified by the data what we're gonna tell a very
complicated story eventually but first we just have to talk about like the history of the concept
of blue zones okay throughout culture throughout history people have made claims that they're
really old like people would say like i'm 140 years old and they're oftentimes coupled with
this idea that there's these like these remote misty places where like everybody lives to 150
these sort of places where like everybody lives to 150.
fountain of youth myths these have persisted throughout time and it was really easy to do
this before the late 1800s because there was essentially no system of checking them i just
have always assumed that the sort of anti-aging world is like the original wellness grift it really
is yeah so basically the the field of gerontology which i've been reading a lot of the last couple
weeks essentially grows out of efforts to validate these places the first time they're able to
confirm one of these communities is in 1999 there are people who are looking around sardinia a lot of
genetic research is done there because it has very low rates of immigration and the population has
just been kind of you know it's an island it's relatively far from italy so it's always been of
interest to researchers and so in the late 1990s there is a researcher named johnny pez who starts
looking around sardinia and does like looking for age records you're gonna make a joke about the
name aren't you
yeah
yeah
does he all right just get it over with does he does he shoot his research right out of his neck
all right i really love that you knew it was coming i hear your little breaths as i'm talking
like here it comes she wants to do a thing about the name of course listen you knew that the first
time you read that name you're like oh my dad joke co-host is gonna bust in like the fucking
kool-aid man oh yeah
oh yeah
so johnny pez starts looking around getting records around sardinia and he identifies
not sardinia as a whole but these very isolated areas in the highlands of sardinia very traditional
shepherding communities he starts to notice that there's like a huge number of people over 100
there and the weirdest thing is that men seem to live as long as women so one of the most
consistent findings in old age research is that women live you know three to five years old and
three to ten years longer than men and in this particular area men are living just as long as
women so he gets the records he writes this up and in 1999 he presents this to a conference of
other gerontologists i've read various descriptions of this presentation and it sounds like he was
essentially laughed out of the room oh everyone at this conference was just like the men are
obviously exaggerating right if men are like ha ha ha i'm 150 it's guys being dudes just a bunch of
brian johnsons just a bunch of fucking brian johnsons out here right and so at this conference
he meets another researcher named michelle poulan and everyone is like well somebody's got to like
go confirm these ages right like they're obviously lying it's just like every other fucking myth of
these like longevity communities like sure someone needs to go and like debunk this whatever so
michelle poulan spends the next four years traveling to this area this remote weird part
of sardinia to disconfirm the fact that all of these dudes are living in this area and they're
so old there this is where we get the term blue zones when poulan was doing this he visited 40
different small municipalities and every time he could confirm someone over 100 he would put a blue
dot on his map looking at the entire map of sardinia he has areas where there's tons of blue
dots right so we had the one preliminary paper in 1999 which was like super brief like hey we think
there's a lot of old people here we then in 2004 get this very dry paper that is like here is what
we have done to confirm these people's ages and we're like oh my god this is so old this is so
many people's ages like clergy records there's municipal records there's school records they're
going out of their way to try to disconfirm that these people are over 100 they they basically
published this paper being like we can't disconfirm this all evidence indicates that like there's just
a lot of dudes that are very old in this community and so i'm gonna send you a couple paragraphs from
the abstract of this paper an alternative and interesting hypothesis is that the high rate of
consanguineous individuals and low immigration rates have progressively decreased the variability
of the genetic pool and facilitated the emergence of genetic characteristics that protect individuals
from diseases that are major causes of mortality particularly in older individuals given the
exceptionally high prevalence of male centenarians in the blue zone it is reasonable to assume that
either the environmental characteristics or the genetic factors or the genetic factors are
both exert their favorable effect more strongly in men than in women so basically the the first
explanation for this is like oh it's just centuries of inbreeding have kind of by coincidence given
these people some sort of immunity to various other diseases that kill old people i do like
that the final sentence is like uh hey there's a lot of old men here so uh here's what we're
gonna float it's either genetics or environment
yeah great sure i mean i guess so that that is 2004 when this paper is published we then get the
popularization of this this is where we meet the protagonist for most of this episode dan butner
this is the guy who is eventually the subject of the netflix documentary and also the author of like
there's like a blue zones cookbook and there's like there's like a little blue zones mini empire
we will get to it he's published i think it's like eight books about blue zones wow
he really has made this his entire career his bio is like weirdly murky i i've read a bunch of old
interviews with him i listened to a bunch of current podcast interviews with him and he sort
of edits the way that he got into this field he's in his 40s when he finds out about this so he has
like an entire previous life he is raised in the twin cities according to one interview but i haven't
seen him mentioned anywhere else after college he starts working at ibm and then he's really into
long distance cycling so he sets up his own business and he's like oh i'm gonna do this
three guinness book of world records for long distance cycling for like distance and speed and
stuff he at one point bikes from alaska down to the tip of argentina he then bikes across the entire
soviet union he bikes around africa he starts writing books about this so his book about the
soviet union one is called soviet trek he writes a book and does a pbs documentary called africa
trek he basically becomes one of these guys that is like frankly very good at turning these
experiences into publicity and into like products that he sells so you know like the oregon trail
was like a big deal in the 1990s was look michael yes i personally died of dysentery like so many
times 30 times he makes something called the africa trail cd-rom after his africa bike trip
once he gets back from these various trips he starts like this online platform which i can't
remember what it was called but it was like a little bit of a thing and he's like oh my god i'm gonna do this
explore like Mayan ruins and they will have a satellite uplink to classrooms where kids can
kind of watch live what they're doing. I don't know how the fuck they were doing this in the
late 1990s to be honest, like dial up speeds, but there's some sort of like a live satellite uplink
component to this. And then kids in the classrooms can kind of vote on like, should we explore East
or should we explore West? It's like this weird online learning platform. It appears to be quite
successful, this model. And in 1999, one of the mysteries that he's trying to solve is where are
the oldest people? Like what is it about certain places that make people live longer? I still not
really get this. He says in 1999, he is invited by the Japanese government and funded by the
Japanese government to go visit Okinawa, which is another one of these places that has kind of
always been seen as like a longevity hotspot. So he goes there and does this kind of like online
learning, live learning thing. He like interviews a bunch of old people. Nothing really comes of
that though. So this remains a interest of his. And in 2004, he sees the article by Michelle
Poulain saying, hey, I investigated these villages in Sardinia and everyone is very old there. This
appears to be true. So in 2005, he writes the article that kind of launches this entire concept
of blue zones. There's an article for National Geographic called The Secrets of Long Life.
The central tension at the heart of this, and like I think ultimately the downfall of blue zones
is around this question of like, are we engaged in an academic endeavor? What explains why these
people are old? Or are we engaged in like an advice giving endeavor?
Michael, I believe science has settled the question. It is inbreeding. The scientific
research we were just reading said inbreeding. At this point with the Sardinia stuff,
there's no information about lifestyle things, right? There's been no surveys of the diets of
Sardinians. This is basically just like the field doing like very boring yeoman's work of just trying
to confirm like, hey, there's a lot of old people here.
Right. They're trying to verify like, we think we're seeing this thing. Are we really seeing
this thing?
I am going to send you the first couple paragraphs of Dan Buettner's National
Geographic article, and you can tell me which direction he decided to take.
What if I said you could add up to 10 years to your life?
Adding 10 years.
A long, healthy life is no accident. It begins with good genes, but it also depends on good
habits. If you adopt the right lifestyle, experts say, chances are you may live up to a decade
longer. So what's the formula for success? In recent years, researchers have fanned out across
the globe to find the secrets to long life.
Secrets.
In Sardinia, Italy, one team of
demographers found a hot spot of longevity in mountain villages where men reach age 100 at an
amazing rate. On the islands of Okinawa, Japan, another team examined a group that is among the
longest lived on earth. And in Loma Linda, California, researchers studied a group of
Seventh Day Adventists who rank among America's longevity all-stars. Residents of these three
places produce a high rate of centenarians, suffer a fraction of the average life expectancy, and
suffer a fraction of the diseases that commonly kill people in other parts of the developed world
and enjoy more healthy years of life. In some, they offer three sets of best practices to emulate.
The rest is up to you.
So he infomercialed it.
Yeah.
He went full, there's got to be a better way.
Yeah, he fully is just like, these are the tips that you can use in your life.
The whole thing is just like, is this you? And it's black and white footage of someone
opening a closet and a bunch of junk falling onto them. Like, it's just, it's wild how
huckstery the, like, tone of this is.
And he describes elsewhere that, you know, he went with the demographers. He went with Pez and
Poulain to Sardinia to, like, talk to people. He does this in other areas, too. The actual
researchers have questionnaires that they give people about, like, their diet and lifestyle
habits. Or, like, Poulain is like, where are your school records? How do I find your birth
certificate? Like, he's, he's interested in, like, how to disconfirm or confirm that these
people actually are as old as they say they are. Dan Buettner is basically just like, do you eat
meat? Do you ride your bike? And, like, not, not to cancel my own grandma on the show or whatever,
but, like, I can't wait to hear where this goes.
But, like, my grandmother is not a reliable narrator of how she reached 100, right? It's
like asking, like, naturally, extremely thin people how to be thin.
Yes. This idea that people have, like, information to,
to offer on how their bodies got to be the way that their bodies are is, like,
true in very, very limited cases. And also, we've talked a million times on the show about how so
many of these wellness myths begin with, I think, modern society's very ambivalent attitude toward
modernity and especially urbanization, right? It's like, we left the land where we had these
simple lifestyles, and now we live in this, this desiccated version of human life. We're all packed
in together, et cetera. And so there's something very, very different about this. And I think
it's very, very telling about, in the Sardinia section of this article, he has long descriptions
of, like, the shepherds walking the fields, right? Like, waking up with the sunrise. They
have fast food in these areas in Sardinia. They have supermarkets. But he sort of edits
that out as if every single person is just, like, walking the earth.
Yeah.
He actually, I listened to a couple podcast interviews with him, and he says in one of
the interviews, when they're asking about, like, what do you consider to be your purpose
in life? He says,
my purpose is finding the traditional peoples of the world and sharing their wisdom. That's,
like, a kind of a nice thing to say and to think. Like, that's lovely, right? Like,
finding these indigenous communities and, like, sharing stories of their societies. But, like,
I think that's what Dan thinks that he's doing. But what he's really doing is he's sort of,
he's looking for things that he thinks are replicable in this very ideological way.
He's not looking at, like, oh, yeah, what is, like, the welfare structure that they have in Italy?
Or, like, you know, what are the statins these people are taking, right? He's specifically
seeking to, like, find the traditional peoples of the world and sharing their wisdom.
He's not seeking out these kind of, like, close-to-the-land types of practices.
Right. And also, it is a selective kind of nostalgia, right?
Yeah.
There is sort of this idea that we were healthier without really bothering to look at,
what does the actual data say? How long were people living? And the answer is a lot shorter of a. That's the thing. He's describing them as, like, these are traditional shepherding communities,
and that's why they live so long. But there are thousands of
traditional shepherding, subsistence farming communities in the world,
and they don't have long lifespans, typically.
So, he goes through the Sardinian example. He then goes to Okinawa, which is kind of the same
sort of thing, a lot of this fetishization of traditionalism. He then takes us to Loma Linda,
California. This whole section is about the Seventh-day Adventist community. These people
have been part of a study, basically, like, track their lifestyle and habits over time.
I'm going to send you a little description of that study.
From 1976 to 1988, the National Institutes of Health funded a study of 34,000 California Adventists
to see whether their health-oriented lifestyle affected their life expectancy
and risk of heart disease and cancer. The study found that the Adventist habit of consuming beans,
soy milk, tomatoes, and other fruits lowered their risk of developing certain cancers.
It also suggested that eating whole,
wheat bread, drinking five glasses of water a day, and, most surprisingly,
consuming four servings of nuts a week, had reduced their risk of heart disease.
In the end, the study reached a stunning conclusion, says Gary Fraser of Loma Linda
University. The average Adventist lived four to ten years longer than the average Californian.
That makes the Adventist one of the nation's most convincing cultures of longevity.
Something is very funny about the fact that the first ever
article, right, the popularization of this concept of blue zones, includes three examples,
and one of them is not a blue zone. The Seventh-day Adventists, it's like a subgroup within
Loma Linda, California. Loma Linda does not have a particularly long lifespan. It's only a very
small subgroup, but, like, you can find groups like this all over the place in America.
The difference between the richest Americans and the poorest Americans,
is 14 years of lifespan. So, if you went to, like, you know, Mississippi has one of the lowest
life expectancies in America. If you went to any country club in Mississippi, you would find a ton
of people who live 10 years longer than the Mississippi average. This just isn't a blue zone.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's just a group of people who belong to the same church in the
same town. Dan later says, he's like, oh, the only reason this is in there is because my editors
wanted somewhere in the United States. But then what's wild is he just, like, keeps it. So,
like, in other interviews, he's like, oh, I put it in there because of my editors. And then, like,
oh, it just stuck. I'm like, well, why did it stick, Dan? You're the one doing the blue zones
thing. You can just unstick it if you don't want to. Yeah, what the fuck? So, after this article
comes out in 2005, it blows up. And Dan essentially makes this the rest of his career. He actually
works directly with Johnny Pez and Michelle Poulain to travel around the world and, like,
confirm these areas. So, eventually, they're contacted by a researcher in Costa Rica. There's
a peninsula in Costa Rica called Nicoya where, again, there's just a lot of people who live to
100. They also identify an island in Greece called Ikara.
In 2008, Dan publishes his book, The Blue Zones, Lessons for Living Longer from the People Who Lived the Longest.
I read this book.
It's an interesting mix of like very kind of normal lifestyle advice and like weird crank bullshit.
So each of the little sections has like text boxes that he breaks out with little tips, like little things that you could be doing.
And this is one of them from the Sardinia section.
Goat's milk.
When compared to cow's milk, goat's milk delivers a powerful nutritional punch.
One glass contains 13% more calcium, 25% more vitamin B6, 47% more vitamin A, 134% more potassium, and three times more niacin.
Mike, you just eat goat milk.
I looked this up.
The societies with the highest consumption of goat's milk.
Mostly in South Asia, it's like Pakistan and India, and they don't have longer lifespans.
It's like weird Weight Watchers brain kind of stuff.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
That's like, just swap out your white rice for brown rice and you're on the way or whatever.
And it's like, God, none of those work.
He has a whole thing about like turmeric has antioxidants.
And then in the Okinawa section, he's like, soy is like a superfood and people who eat soy live longer and stuff.
And it's very like 2005 in that way.
Right.
It's very Ted talk.
Right.
Very life hacky.
Very like just this one weird trick.
I do want to give the book some credit.
I think as far as sort of fad diet here, like fad lifestyle advice, I've definitely seen worse.
Most of the advice is fine.
So he's like people in the blue zones move regularly.
He's a vegetarian.
And so he's like, try to avoid meat, try to avoid processed foods in both Sardinia and Okinawa.
They have a rule that's basically eat until you're 80% full.
They phrase it differently in both cultures.
But it's essentially don't like eat until you're stuffed.
He provides a bunch of recipes and they're all kind of like fine.
Like he's not saying like eat 500 calories a day.
It sounds like a lot of the stuff in here is like not going to hurt you.
Yeah.
It just sort of has like horse blinders on.
The other thing I wanted to mention, a major component of the blue zones advice is like trying to find a purpose in your life and trying to build wholesome, intimate relationships.
And like, I love this.
Yeah.
These are some of the tips.
He says, volunteer for a new organization.
Call, text or email one friend or family member you haven't connected with recently.
Host a healthy potluck.
Plan a vacation or some time off work.
Schedule a weekly get together with friends.
Write a thank you note to your coworker or friend.
Take time to rediscover a hobby you once loved.
Yeah, these all seem lovely.
We're always grading on a fucking curve on this show.
But it's like just the fact that he actually talks about like maybe trying to do things for other people.
Yes.
This is maybe the first book we've ever talked about that actually has.
Totally.
It's this and Angela Lansbury.
He also has a little bit of kind of structural stuff.
And this comes out in his interviews.
He says like this isn't really about like individual willpower.
It's about like the environments that we've created.
I mean, this is at odds with all of his other fucking like little life hacky advice.
But like he does kind of acknowledge the basic realities that like American life makes this very difficult.
So this is from the book.
In the Western world, accomplishment, status and material wealth are highly revered and require most of our time.
Americans employed full time work on average 43 hours a week and take the shortest paid vacations in the industrialized world.
Then when they do take time off, according to one source, 20 percent of them stay in touch with the office.
We generally hold working and being productive in high regard.
Being busy often wins us esteem.
Few cultural institutions exist to encourage us to slow down, unwind and de-stress.
Is this amazing?
Is this scorching societal critique?
No, but like by the standards of a fucking diet book, I'll take it.
God, I'm really stuck on average of 43 hours a week.
Were we ever so young?
There's also some kind of bad advice.
He does have the structural critique, but then he also fetishizes these societies that don't really have the same structures in place.
So here's his description of Sardinia.
A final and subtle yet powerful Sardinian attribute is their positive attitude toward elders.
In America, being young is celebrated and growing old is often dreaded.
I have heard that most seniors polled said they'd rather die than be put in an assisted living facility.
But in America, we are increasingly having to care for our seniors outside the family.
People over 65 in the U.S. will need long term care for an average of three years.
And more than a third of them will not rely on help from family.
There are no long term care facilities in the Sardinian blue zone.
There, respect increases with age.
Younger generations feel a debt to the parents and grandparents who raised them.
All but one of the 50 or so centenarians I interviewed had a daughter or granddaughter who actively cared for them.
There are no long term care facilities in Sardinia.
It's like not something to emulate.
There is only the.
Unpaid labor of young women family members.
I get what he's getting at here.
Like the thing about respecting elders completely fucking true.
Like absolutely.
But also we do need systems to take care of people.
It's also like, hey, man, that poll about not wanting to go to assisted living facilities,
I think probably has a lot more to do with the specific state of assisted living facilities than the fact of them.
He also has a bit of the same problem with his.
Thing of like surround yourself with good people and try to form meaningful friendships.
He also keeps coming back to this idea that you should cut people out of your life if they don't have the same health habits as you.
He has this whole section called the right tribe.
Oh, no.
Is this all the shit that's like your fat friends are making you fat.
Your depressed friends are making you depressed very explicitly.
So here's this know the people who reinforce the right habits, people who understand or live by blue zone secrets.
Go through your address book or your contact list of friends.
Think about which ones support healthy habits and challenge you mentally and which ones you can truly rely on in case of need.
I don't know, man.
Be a vegetarian.
Don't be bike around.
Don't bike around.
Whatever.
But it it feels really toxic and bad to be like you should cut people out of your life if they don't have the same health habits as you.
This pops up, I would say, every few years or so in like usually a New York Times health op ed that someone's like, you know what?
You should.
Consider is dumping all your fat friends and all your depressed friends.
And I'm like, well, alone again, naturally.
God.
So I want to get into critiques of like the blue zones just as a concept, because, you know, this is now like a whole academic field.
Before we get to that, I do want to talk a little bit about like my jokerfication when it comes to Dan Buettner in his 2005 book.
He's pretty clear about the fact that like.
This came out of this researcher, Johnny Pez, going to Sardinia, finding the records and then bringing Michelle Poulain on board to like confirm the records and then publishing it in an academic journal.
And like they were the ones like putting blue dots on paper and calling them blue zones for the clustering of the dots.
Right.
But then over time, Dan has like sort of edited them out.
And if you go on Blue Zones dot com, which is run by Dan, this is how he describes the history of blue zones.
The term blue zones was first coined.
By Blue Zones founder Dan Buettner.
Yeah.
A National Geographic explorer and fellow and journalist during an exploratory project he led in 2004 after an expedition to Okinawa, Japan in 2000 to investigate the longevity there.
He set out to explore other regions of the world with reportedly high longevity.
He did not coin the term.
It's it.
It's right there in black and white, man.
You didn't coin the term blue zones.
Yeah.
He says here he keeps doing this.
He's saying where he's like a team that I led to Sardinia.
Dude, you didn't even hear about this until after the fucking paper was published.
These are researchers going there and like spending months tediously trying to confirm the ages of these old people.
You were not involved.
You read a fucking paper and then you wrote about it for National Geographic.
That's fine.
That's what I do.
That's what a lot of us do.
But don't fucking say you were the one that led the team.
Michael, you're just salty because we did that episode and I invented the food pyramid.
You're just so mad.
And also even the Okinawa stuff, he writes himself into it.
He's like, oh, in 1999, I went to Okinawa.
But like there was a bestselling book in the 1990s about people in Okinawa living a long time.
This is a different team of researchers named Craig and Brad Wilcox who were working on confirming the ages of people in Okinawa.
There was a researcher from Tokyo in 1975 who went down there to be like, oh, I think these these ages seem high.
Let me go confirm it.
So they spent years confirming the ages of people in Okinawa.
They eventually write a book called The Okinawa Program, which was popular at the time, but it's now kind of lost to history.
And then Dan just writes himself into this as like, I went to Okinawa for the first time to discover this.
You just saw a bestselling book about Okinawa and you went there.
You're just a journalist, man.
It's fine.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
There's also an interesting thing now that sort of there's been the debunking, which we're about to get to.
There's been more investigation of this sort of partnership between him and these.
two researchers at the 2000s, apparently they broke up at some point.
relatively recent, sometime between 2020 and 2023. Gianni Pez just left. He won't say why,
but he's like, I'm not working with Dan anymore. And in 2009, as he's kind of expanding the Blue
Zones empire, writing these bestselling books, Buechner patents the term Blue Zones. So basically
this is to prevent other people from like marketing it, right? Yeah, like those pesky
researchers who came up with it. Yeah, exactly. That is how this feels. So Michel Poulain says
that he had no idea that Dan patented the term Blue Zones. It's kind of funny. There's now two
Blue Zones websites. So one run by Buechner is BlueZones.com. And Michel Poulain, who's like
the actual researcher who did all the fucking yeoman's work to confirm the ages of all these
locations, he runs LongevityBlueZones.com. Oh, it's not TwoZones.com? True Zones. It's all
coming back. The other, like even beyond like leaving Dan Buechner out of it, when you look
into what we now know about the actual Blue Zones, it's a much more complicated picture.
So one of the things that I find really interesting about Sardinia, that's actually true for the Greek
Blue Zone as well, is that the Sardinian Blue Zones have higher rates of smoking than the
Italian average. If we're being systematic about this kind of lifestyle advice, shouldn't we be
telling people to smoke? But obviously that would be insane because like we know that smoking is bad
for you. Right. So that must be kind of a fluke. But then it's sort of like, well, wait a minute.
Because it's bad for you, we're discarding it because other research indicates that it's bad
for you. Shouldn't we just be looking at research of what's good for you and what's bad for you?
Yeah. If we're cherry picking stuff that is confirmed by other research,
well, we should just be doing the other research. Like what is the point of Sardinia then?
This is like the tricky thing about all this stuff, right? Is that we're reaching for
one weird trick, life hack kind of things that are like, what's the one step that you can take?
Oh, I need to eat more nuts. Great. Yeah. Oh, I need to practice more incest. Awesome. Yeah.
And cousin fucking. The answers are, once again, probably like a lot more complicated,
a lot thornier than that, and probably not a uniformly rosy picture.
Well, that to me is like the difference between the academic endeavor to figure out what's going
on and the sort of like lifestyle advice endeavor, because one of the best predictors actually of old
age is not having children and having fewer children. That would be weird advice to give.
Like if you want to live a long time, don't have kids. Yeah, for real.
I think as an academic endeavor, it's really interesting to know that stressors might reduce
your lifespan. Like having kids is a stressor. I think to discover these sorts of patterns is
super interesting, but that's not really lifestyle advice, right? The other one that he mentions a
lot in all of the literature about around blue zones is red wine. You know, in Sardinia, they
drink so much red wine and in Greece, they drink all this red wine. But if you look at the actual
numbers, people in the Sardinian blue zone drink less alcohol than Italians in general and drink
less red wine than Italians in general. And so, you know, I think that's a really interesting
that's very funny. It seems like he's just going there and being like, oh, this guy drinks red wine.
Red wine must be good for you without any actual checking of like, well, wait a minute. Is this a
population thing or just this one guy? Yeah. It's also turns out to be the same thing with this,
like eat until you're 80% full thing. Like that is a cultural rule. Like that's something people
say, but there's no evidence that people in the Sardinian blue zone eat less than other people
in Italy. It just isn't clear how much of this stuff is really generalizable. There's all these
another thing in Sardinia specifically is, you know, Italy is a country with very traditional
gender roles and Sardinia especially is like even more like stratified by gender than other parts
of Italy. And so one of the things that may actually explain why men specifically live so
much longer in these like remote parts of Sardinia is that there's so much glorification of old men,
often to the detriment of older women. If you're an aging woman in these areas of Sardinia,
they don't consider it an obligation to care
for you. So your kids are not going to take you in. Whereas if you're an older man,
they will take you in. Is this something we should replicate? Like patriarchy? I'm not trying to like
cancel Sardinia, but it's just like, if we're interested in an academic endeavor of like,
hey, what, what explains this? We would look at the good and the bad of these societies.
But when you go through these societies, you know, the thousands of different habits that
make up people's lifestyles and you pick out the ones that you like, what are we doing? You might
as well just say, these are the things that I like. Even in the earlier quote that you,
you pulled, it was like, yeah, younger daughters and women take care of older people and men,
right? Yeah. This is like a core organizing principle and like, boy, oh boy, buddy,
why don't you break that shit out by gender and look a little bit at like, what are the
outcomes for ladies? Cause I'm guessing that someone is paying a price for that longevity
in some way, shape or form. A quote that I was going to read you from the National Geographic
article earlier, but I forgot is he's talking about like stress, like the, the less stressful
lifestyles of Sardinia. And he's interviewing this guy, Tanino, who's like the pastoralist
climbing around the mountains. He says, I do the work, admits Tanino, hooking Giovanna around the
waist. My ragazza does the worrying. Oh God. Oh God. Hey. So get your ragazza to do the worrying.
Oh God. So this was like my excuse to talk about how even before all the statistical debunking,
everything we're about to get into, I just don't think the concept of blue zones is very fucking
I just think the whole thing is garbage. But now we're going to talk about the specific ways
that blue zones may or may not be garbage. So this is the high profile debunking. Yes,
exactly. This is why we're here today, right? This is the reason for the season. So this
essentially comes from just a random guy. This is a researcher at university college, London
named Saul, Justin Newman, who it seems like basically just started reading about blue zones
kind of in his spare time.
And was like, yo, fuck this, which I deeply sympathize with.
I was going to say, it sounds like you and me.
He is a biologist, but he's not. He's like a plant biologist. And all of his other publications are
like kind of technical things.
Well, then he's not like you and me.
Yeah, yeah, exactly. So in 2019, Saul Newman publishes a pre-print paper. So like not peer
review, just like a thing that he puts on the internet called Super Centenarians and the Oldest
Old.
Concentrated into regions with no birth certificates and short lifespans. He sort of republishes
and updates this for 2024. It's now called Super Centenarian and Remarkable Age Records
Exhibit Patterns Indicative of Clerical Errors and Pension Fraud. He also has another paper
from 2024 called The Global Pattern of Centenarians Highlights Deep Problems in Demography.
So the core argument here is very like maintenance phase adjacent.
It's basically that like we can't say anything about blue zones or about like the clustering of
the old people because all of the data is garbage. So he starts with a general critique of the sort
of entire field of gerontology. He talks about how, you know, age is a really important risk
factor. And yet there's no actual objective way to measure how old somebody is. It's especially
difficult for centenarians because, you know, if somebody's 100 years old in 2024, that means they
were born in 1994. And so they're like, oh, I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't
1924, which means we're relying on records from like a very different time, right? Government
capacities were very different. And because the field of gerontology essentially emerges in the
1970s, we're then going back to people born in the 1870s. Right. For context, the late 1800s is
when the U.S. government issued its first nutrition guidelines. And one of those guidelines was
be sure to eat vegetable ash. Oh, yeah. Burn up those vegetables and then shout out on the onion
ash. It was like, what's the correct dosage of heroin for your child? Right. Yes. When they
have a little sniffle. Honestly. When they have the sniffles. Yes. He says the field of gerontology
and demography don't really take this seriously because they kind of assume that, eh, there's
probably not that much error. And when there's error, it's probably random, right? Some people
say they're a little older. Some people say they're a little younger. It's kind of a wash.
But he says,
he says, no, errors are actually extremely common. And there are reasons why people exaggerate their
age. And there's many reasons you wouldn't file a death certificate, right? Because if your mom
is getting a pension, you can just be like, I am my mom. And then you get free money.
Right, right, right, right. Most of his papers are dedicated to criticizing these specific databases
where people are trying to gather every single person who's over 100. There are various efforts
to do this. There's a UN database. He essentially says these databases are just useless. So I'm
going to say that.
I'm going to send you kind of the thesis statement.
According to uncorrected UN metrics, the blue zone regions with the highest late life survival
are heavily enriched for states with absent or unreliable birth certificates,
states with no centralized government, communist dictatorships,
and countries actively engaged in war or genocide.
New Caledonia is the best country in the world for life expectancy at age 100,
despite being ranked 51st in the world,
for life expectancy at birth.
One way to look at blue zones is like, oh, it's where people walk amongst the sheep
and where they eat fresh roasted pumpkin every day. Or another way to look at it is
it's places where they just don't keep very good records. He notes in France,
almost every region in France where people live past 110 are like post-colonial regions,
regions where there's been natural disasters, regions where records have been destroyed.
And then you look at Paris, which has like all the rich people live in Paris. It has the best
medical care. And Paris has way,
way fewer people over 110. The mechanisms we know extend people's life expectancies.
You don't find old people in places with those mechanisms.
He also notes that when you look into the databases,
For people who do have their date of birth recorded, there's a suspiciously high number of them on the first of the month.
And in some countries, they're missing, like, round numbers.
Like, you don't find people born on, like, the 10th and the 15th.
And that's typical of human beings trying to come up with numbers that sound random.
Oh, no, Mike!
Like, when you ask people to pick a random number between 1 and 10, most people pick 7.
Why do I feel called out by this?
No, same, same, same, same.
I absolutely would have picked 7.
You find, since the introduction of cesarean sections, that there's a little bit more births on weekdays than weekends.
Oh, yeah. That's like a women in the workforce thing.
But, like, even that, he says, that's only, like, a 2% flex.
Like, we don't—it's not that big of a change, weekday to weekend, the number of births.
And yet, for these round numbers,
you find a four-fold difference for supercentenarians.
Jeez Louise.
He then gets to the blue zones specifically.
So, this is a very long excerpt, but we're going to talk about it in detail.
So, I want you to read the whole thing.
Substantial error rates were recently uncovered in every blue zone.
In 1997, 30,000 Italian citizens were discovered to be claiming the pension whilst dead.
In 2008, 4%.
42% of Costa Rican 99-plus-year-olds were revealed to have misstated their age in the 2000 census.
After limited error correction, the Nicoya blue zone shrunk by around 90%,
and old-age life expectancy plummeted from world-leading to, quote,
near the bottom of the pack.
In 2010, over 230,000 Japanese centenarians were discovered to be missing imaginary,
clerical errors,
or dead,
an error rate of 82% in data then considered among the best in the world.
Greece followed in 2012,
when at least 72% of Greek centenarians reported in the census
were discovered to be dead or, depending on your perspective,
committing pension fraud.
He then goes into Okinawa specifically because it was the first blue zone identified.
So, here's this.
In Okinawa, the anomalous pattern,
of centenarians,
is compounded by other error-generative processes.
Japanese birth and marriage records are not generated by a central bureaucracy,
but instead are hand-recorded by family members as Koseki documents.
On top of this self-report data,
the large-scale bombing and invasion of Okinawa involved the destruction of entire cities and towns,
obliterating around 90% of Koseki records.
Post-war Okinawans subsequently requested replacement,
documents described from memory through a U.S.-led military government
that largely spoke no Japanese and which used a different calendar.
The number of replacement documents issued,
a proxy measure of American bombing and shelling intensity,
predicts 79% of the variation in centenarian status across Okinawa.
So, it's a pretty strong case.
Sure.
We can't really say where people over 100 are.
When we find large numbers of centenarians,
it's mostly in these regions where, like,
it just isn't very plausible that they're clustered there.
And then another factor that predicts blue zones is, like,
you don't have the fucking records.
So, before we get into more of the detail and the debate about this,
I want to take a slight detour into the story of,
have you heard of Jean Calment, the oldest woman who ever lived, Aubrey?
No, I have not.
Okay.
So, this is a woman who was,
born in France in 1875.
She has a daughter in 1898 when she's 22.
In 1991, she is officially confirmed as the oldest person in the world.
And then six years later, in 1997, she dies at the age of 122 years.
Around 20 years after she dies in 2018,
there is a Russian doctor in Moscow who starts looking around at photos of her.
And it's like, she does not look 110 in these photos.
She looks way younger, like, suspiciously younger.
He also finds that earlier in her life,
Jean has, like, a bump on the tip of her nose.
And then when she's older, she doesn't have the bump anymore.
The sort of the initial questions attract the attention of another Russian guy
named Nikolai Zak, who is a mathematician,
who starts doing the numbers.
And he's saying that, like, it's really fucking scary.
It's really sketchy that the oldest person is 122
and the second oldest person is 119.
It's like a really, really, really unlikely result that this woman was 122.
They also start looking around.
There's various, like, transcripts of interviews with her.
And they find other discrepancies.
So she's born in 1875.
And when she's growing up, there's a massive cholera epidemic
in the small town in France where she lives
that, like, she doesn't mention in any of her stories about growing up.
She also says that she was. She was friends with Vincent van Gogh.
People are just like, that's a weird move.
They also note that her French ID card
has her eye color changes halfway through her life.
And they also note her signature, like, gets kind of loopier
and changes over her life, too.
Your signature changing is, like, a known thing.
Yeah.
People's signatures change over time.
But it is, like, there's sort of, like, death by a thousand cuts happening here.
So this mathematician, Nikolai,
comes up with a theory that explains all of this.
So, according to him,
Jean Calment died in 1934
and her daughter took over her life
so that she wouldn't have to pay inheritance taxes.
Oh, hey.
This aligns with kind of everything we know about old age claims.
Like, there's always been these mythical figures who say, like,
well, I'm, like, 131 million years old.
And, like, they never turn out to be true.
So it's, like, another one. Boy, oh, boy, oh, boy.
However,
the theory that Jean Calment, like, faked her death
is basically a conspiracy theory.
Huh.
So this little detour is based on
a very good New Yorker article called
Was Jean Calment the Oldest Person Who Ever Lived or a Fraud?
by Lauren Collins in 2020.
Also, a very good academic article called
The Real Facts Supporting Jean Calment as the Oldest Ever Human
by Jean-Marie Rabine.
So because she lived in the same city her whole life,
a relatively small city in France,
and she married her own cousin,
so her last name never changed.
Good.
Excellent.
I didn't expect us to be here,
but here we are nonetheless.
There's tons of records confirming her.
There's birth records.
There's church records.
There's marriage records.
There's real estate purchases.
The whole thing of, like, the mom dies,
but then the daughter takes over her identity,
we're not talking about her showing up in the records as her mom.
We're talking about someone who,
like, lives as Jean Calment for the rest of her life
and maintains this idea that her daughter died.
Every single person who knew her says, like,
yeah, she did not swap bodies.
The mother and daughter didn't even look similar.
This is a talented Mr. Ripley situation.
Like, full on.
There's also this funny thing, like,
if she did all this to avoid the inheritance tax,
in 1934, the French inheritance tax was not particularly large.
It would have been around 6% of her assets.
There's also, like, the efforts to conform,
to reaffirm Jean's old age were really extensive.
Like, they pulled school records and were like,
hey, what's the name of your first grade teacher?
And she would know.
People who do this kind of for a living,
like actual gerontologists who are experts in age verification,
spent literally years poking at Jean Calment's story
and did not find any inconsistencies.
Like, there are a couple of things,
like the Vincent Van Gogh thing is really fucking weird.
And it seems like that's just kind of like an exaggeration.
And as you mentioned, like, the fact that,
her signature changed over her life is just not that weird.
And the discrepancy on her ID card
is that it used to say her eyes were gray,
and then eventually it said her eyes were black.
This is like true crime brain coming after your, like,
great-great-grandma.
The true crime brain shit is so bad.
It's also with the photos, too.
He's like, ooh, her nose is different.
But, like, we're talking about photos
from the fucking 1920s and 1930s.
You can't really tell very much about somebody.
And this whole thing of, like, ooh,
she looks different in this photo,
people look so different in different photos,
from, like, lighting effects, the lenses.
You know what this is?
It's not true crime brain.
It's moon landing brain.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
It's never happened before.
Ergo, it simply couldn't happen.
Ergo, this has to be a conspiracy.
To me, the reason we're going down this detour,
you essentially have this pattern where, like,
people who are close to the situation
and who've looked into it are like,
yeah, look, we've also thought
of the extremely obvious points that you're making.
Like, oh, she could be lying.
And we've looked into it.
And then there's this person who lives in Moscow,
who's thousands of miles away,
has no direct evidence of anything,
no direct experience with the case
or professional experience
doing these kinds of investigations,
who's just like, the math says she's not 122.
Right.
This pattern is basically what's going on
with Saul Newman's debunking of the Blue Zones.
Oh, no!
His whole thing is, like, demographers
don't care about, like, bad data
and stuff, but if you actually read the literature
from gerontologists they've always known that like most people who say they're over 100 and
very very most people who say they're over 105 are fucking lying like the field is acutely aware of
this and has gone to great lengths to disconfirm previous blue zones and previous people who said
they were extremely old so like there was a woman in Kazakhstan who said that she's 130 people go
there and they're like nah there's like I don't really know why but like people in Cuba lie about
their age a lot and so people like gerontologists are always having to fly to Cuba and then look and
be like no people who do this for a living and have made this their life's work are pretty good
at disconfirming old age claims and are not reluctant to be like no this is not a blue zone
or no this is not a person who's 120 right this is the thing where we're like we assume that unless
someone is in like an extremely professionalized role that we recognize that they like haven't
given any thought to their life.
profession right my god the number of people who used to call my old work and be like hey you guys
are having a hard time getting gay marriage passed I have an idea what if yeah you took it to court
and you're like oh yeah fucking nobody thought of that have you tried framing it like this
like totally tried describing it differently yeah have you tried telling street people to imagine
if their relationships weren't recognized yeah yes we are so
one thing that is so weird about this paper of Saul Newman's that like gets goes super viral
and there's all kinds of articles about like blue zones debunked is like it doesn't talk about blue
zones the whole thing is essentially debunking these like UN databases of everyone over 100 and
it is true that those databases aren't that good but also demographers know that they're not that
good and they don't really use them so wait but how did we get from this paper that is pretty
clearly just poking holes in the idea of super viral and they don't really use them so wait but
how did we get from this paper that is pretty clearly just poking holes in the idea of super
being at the levels that they're at to the blue zones have been debunked yeah this is what drives
me fucking crazy which is how all of this stuff got billed right we are now going to scroll up
through your text messages Aubrey and we are going to reread the essentially only place in
his entire document that Saul Newman talks about the blue zones substantial error rates were
recently uncovered in every quote-unquote blue zone in 1997
30,000 Italian citizens were discovered to be claiming the pension whilst dead this has
nothing to do with blue zones this is basically just people not filing death certificates for
their older relatives and potentially collecting the pensions but the blue zones have nothing to
do with people filing death certificates they have to do with researchers interviewing people
who are over 100 and confirming their birth records the the this 2004 study that we talked
about where Michelle Poulain gets like invited to go to Sardinia they individually confirmed
the ages of 600 people like it took years right they did actually remove one person from the
roles because there's a thing in Italy where at times where there was high infant mortality when
your baby died oftentimes you'd have another kid and give them a similar name or the same name
so there was this woman who seemed to die when she was 110 but they were using the birth certificate
of her sister who died when she was like a year and a half old turned out she was actually 107
so again it's a lot of work to do but it's a lot of work to do but it's a lot of work to do
again they're not reluctant to remove people yeah okay go for the next one in 2008 42 percent of
Costa Rican 99 plus year olds were revealed to have misstated their age in the 2000 census that
one's just irrelevant people are not identifying blue zones by looking at census data and then just
doing nothing else after limited error correction the Nicoya blue zone shrunk by around 90 percent
and old age life expectancy plummeted from world leading
to quote near the bottom of the pack so this one bugs me because this is based on a study by the
guy who discovered the Nicoya blue zone so there's a researcher there named Luis Rosero Bixby who
discovered the blue zone took incredible effort to confirm that these age records were real and
then eventually wrote an article called the vanishing advantage of longevity in Nicoya
where he talks about like yeah we looked into all the age records and it turns out the blue
zone like where people live a long time is actually smaller than the age records and so
he's essentially debunking his own work something that Saul Newman says nobody ever does and then
also he says there's this cohort shift where like people born before 1930 tend to live a long time
in this region whereas people born after 1930 younger people are showing more signs of like
poor health markers and shorter longevity so again that doesn't really debunk people that
are 110 now right that may actually just be a trend that's just a trend and like this is
actually true in essentially all of the blue zones is that with globalization a lot of people are
immigrating and there's more immigration and like uh patterns lifestyle stuff is changing most of
these blue zones are kind of not showing the effect that they used to he's citing the work
of demographers to say that demographers don't do this in 2010 over 230,000 Japanese centenarians
were discovered to be missing imaginary clerical errors or dead an error rate of 82 percent in
data then considered among the best in the world so this one is bizarre it's based on
a BBC article about these 230,000 missing centenarians that number is really weird
because there's only 40,000 centenarians in all of Japan so for there to be 230,000 missing
centenarians they're looking at the entire database of every single person who was born in
Japan since 1872 oh all it is is we have birth records for these people and we don't have death
records for 230,000 people so some of these are people who like went missing in world war
two and just like no one ever filed a death certificate maybe because their relatives were
dead too this is fairly typical in this kind of data that you don't have a perfect match between
every single birth and every single death being recorded so there were people on the rolls
that were like 150 years old but I read a whole academic article about this where they were like
no one really uses this particular database like this isn't showing up in life expectancy stuff
and also that error rate if we're looking at all births since 1872 that's an extremely low
error rate oh yeah it's a 0.5 percent error rate so this just has again nothing to do with blue zones
blue zones are not being identified by like oh hey there's this person who was born and 150 years
later we don't have a death certificate that's not how they identified the Okinawa blue zone
yeah it just seems like this person is reaching for a bunch of problematic age-related data to be
like aha yeah see okay read the last one there's one more left Greece followed in 2012 when at
the age of 35 people were discovered to be dead or depending on your perspective committing pension
fraud so this one is actually true Greece was under all this pressure during the eurozone crisis
to like tighten down its budget and there were 9,000 people above 100 collecting a pension which
is hella fucking sketchy that's like a rate of people over 100 higher than anywhere else in the
world they eventually recalculate and you know double check these things it turns out there's
2,000 people in the entire country over 100 so like people were fudging things around for their
pensions that is absolutely true however again that has nothing to do with the Greek blue zone
the Greek blue zone is this little tiny island called Ikaria which has a population a total
population of 8,000 people when they started looking into this so Johnny Pez and Michelle
Poulain travel to Ikaria to confirm this there were only 164 people over the age of 90 on this
that's what they're doing to confirm the blue zones is they're literally going like door to door
Newman's entire argument is that like this must be pension fraud but he doesn't really have any
data that it's pension fraud I mean there's a couple countries like Greece where like okay yeah
people are definitely fucking doing this but like this is another one of these like kind of welfare
queen myths that we have in America too that's like it's so easy to cheat welfare or whatever
but like it's not that easy and like pension fraud is something that has not looked well upon
in most countries and is very easy to root out
most government agencies have like inspectorates that will go and look at people like okay you say
you're 107 you've been collecting a pension for like 40 years is this really true there are many
many procedures in most countries to look into this stuff and again Newman just like doesn't
address that at all he's like well Greece has a lot of people doing it and like yeah but it was
also really fucking obvious the minute they looked at it that a lot of people were lying and they
fixed it a friend of mine was on SSDI for years social security disability and from time to time
I was given like less than $900 a month to live on for all of her expenses right there would be times
when I would like get her groceries or something I mean to just be like that's not possible yeah and
any time I sent her any amount of money I would reliably get a call from like the SSDI investigators
in her state no way the smallest amount I got called for was $20 no way I didn't actually know
they did that my God man the SSDI investigators in her state no way the smallest amount I got called
the idea that like many many many people are out here committing pension fraud in nations that
presumably care about where their money is going is like nutso there are places like Greece where
like there's actual evidence that this is taking place but you have to present actual evidence you
can't just say oh all these people who say they're old are doing it for the pensions and in his paper
the only actual Blue Zone that he like looks into is Okinawa there's a paper in 2008 called they
really are that old and I'm like I don't know what's going on with them I don't know what's going on
a validation study of
centenarian prevalence in Okinawa. And there's also a 2011 paper by Michelle Poulain called
Exceptional Longevity in Okinawa, a plea for in-depth validation, where they talk about this
challenge of like, yeah, a lot of the records were destroyed in World War II, but they actually look
at like parts of Okinawa where there was more destruction and places where the records were
relatively intact. And they don't find more centenarians in places where the records were
destroyed. People have made extraordinary efforts. And this paper by Poulain about Okinawa is like
really interesting. He's like, yeah, it's really fucking hard to confirm this. And like, we need
to have better methods as a field. And, you know, this isn't the only place where like data is
spotty. And we shouldn't just accept people's testimony that I'm 130. You have to kind of
triangulate your way to concluding that like there really just are a lot of old people here.
And yes, I'm not endorsing the work of Michelle Poulain. Like this is also a guy who gives
lifestyle.
Which I don't think is justified by the data. But the core point that I'm making is that if you want to debunk the blue zones, you have to actually debunk the blue zones, right? You have to debunk the specific work that gerontologists have done to confirm these places. You can't just say, well, Greece has a real big problem with pension fraud. And therefore, this project where they spent years going door to door and confirming people's birth records in Greece is fake. Like these are just two completely separate things.
Yeah.
I mean, we talked about this before on the show that like your findings are your findings and you shouldn't like sugarcoat or change your findings. Right. Based on sort of public response. And also, we live in a world where findings like these get immediately translated into individual directives on how to live and what to eat. This is all super fascinating to me. And I still feel really uneasy with the idea that there's a fucking blue zones.
Cook.
Book.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
If we're taking the research on the researchers terms, there is nothing that I have heard thus far to indicate that the unique thread that sort of holds all of these places together is something about the foods that they all totally.
I will also say in defense of Newman, like I'm criticizing his conclusions here. However, he does have huge portions of his paper where he's like, yeah, they say that, you know, in Okinawa, it's the sweet potatoes that are making people.
But like, they actually have lower sweet potato consumption than the rest of Japan. And Dan Buettner says like, oh, they love gardening in Okinawa. But like, there's public surveys where people say that they garden less than other areas of Japan.
And that's self-report.
This is why I want to spend so much time like debunking the concept of blue zones on its own fucking terms before we got to this. Because like, yes, this all this stuff about lifestyle is just like there isn't really data to back it up. Untangling causation from just like statistical flukes is really fucking hard.
And it's so facile to just be like, they eat turmeric in Sardinia. And so you should eat turmeric and you'll live to 100. No, right. It's worth finding out. And we haven't fucking found out yet.
Well, the thing is, I don't want to go back to the inbreeding, but it's the most this is my bamboo, by the way, you bringing up this much incest talk is really I am learning I have a threshold from what I've
found from reading all this literature is that the phenomenon of people living past 110 is like kind of a distinct phenomenon from average life expectancy. And from all the data that I've found about it, it appears to be mostly genetic. People who live past 110 almost always have like two or three family members who live past 110. There appears to be something in some people that like literally makes them age more slowly. The fact that all of these blue zones are like remote regions, where
you have like genetically distinct populations. I think the original explanation that 2004 paper is probably correct. Something clustered in the Sardinian highlands over time, and happens to make people age a little bit more slowly. I don't actually think it's going to be a lifestyle thing.
Do you think it's atmospheric or genetic or something else?
Yeah, I mean, there's one of the papers I read, says longevity defined as top 10% of survivors and beyond is transmitted as a quantitative genetic trait.
I don't find the concept of centenarians all that useful when I think we should just look at life expectancy. And we can find all kinds of information about what seems to extend life expectancy. And like I, I spent a decent amount of time looking into this. And it's almost all like medical system stuff. It's like getting cancer.
100 fucking percent. Shocking.
It's like vaccines.
That's the thing that keeps people alive is like healthcare.
I think this is just like a really complex and like super interesting field. And it's just really hard to determine.
What affects life expectancy also because things are changing so quickly, like, you know, lifestyles have changed so dramatically over the last 100 years, that somebody who's living to 100. Now, it's just really hard to say what did it and also can we replicate the conditions of 1924? Even if we wanted to?
Yes. And also, we got to stop doing the kind of news coverage that is like somebody lived past 100. And now we're going to ask them how they did it.
Yeah, it's very cute and sweet that the grandma from Texas told.
Everybody, she drinks a Dr. Pepper every day. And that's how she lived to 110.
I know, it just isn't useful.
But like, that's not like health advice. It's not useful. And again, as you're noting, like most of the things that are going to make a big difference are going to be large scale correlations rather than like a clean causation relationship.
And they're going to be systemic, not like individual practices.
It's like such a weird conclusion at the end of the episode where we're like, yeah, blue zones are bullshit, but not for the reasons this guy says they're bullshit.
Yeah, yes, yes.
Saul Newman is saying that like people aren't really living to 100 in these areas. I'm saying they probably are living to 100 in these areas. Like I think these areas are true. However, I don't think any of the lifestyle advice based on these things is useful.
People in the highlands of Sardinia live a little bit differently than other people in Italy, but not that much.
There isn't evidence that it's the fucking sweet potatoes or the gardening, but there isn't evidence that it's pension fraud either.
You know what I'm realizing as we're talking about this is that this the blue zone stuff has traveled.
A really similar path to a bunch of the BMI stuff, which is population level observations that then sort of worms its way into an opportunity to make money for somebody and becomes an individual directive.
Exactly.
It's a wild one to be like, oh, we're in the middle of one of those right now. We're doing a BMI, everybody.
So in in conclusion, they're not the blue zones. They're the truth.
Yeah, I told you it was a good tagline.
Yeah, I told you it was a good tagline.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The concept of Blue Zones originated from research in Sardinia, where high rates of centenarians were documented, initially met with skepticism due to questionable age verification.
Dan Buettner popularized the idea through media and books, framing lifestyle habits like diet, exercise, and purpose as universal longevity solutions, despite limited scientific backing.
The academic foundation of Blue Zones relies heavily on demographic data, which has been repeatedly criticized for errors, including pension fraud, missing records, and age misstatements.
Researchers like Michelle Poulain spent years verifying ages, and some of the data—like in Nicoya or Okinawa—showed significant error rates, leading to the collapse of the blue zone clusters.
Blue Zones selectively emphasize positive aspects (like strong family bonds or traditional lifestyles) while ignoring structural issues, such as gender-based elder neglect or harmful practices like smoking.
Critics argue that the popular narrative oversimplifies complex longevity patterns, ignoring socioeconomic, genetic, and cultural factors that may vary widely across regions.
A major debunking by Saul Newman highlights systemic flaws in global centenarian databases, showing that high concentrations of old people often occur in areas with poor record-keeping, not due to health or lifestyle.
The case of Jean Calment, the world’s oldest verified person, illustrates how age claims can be suspect, yet extensive verification still supports her longevity, showing the difficulty in validating such records.
Summary:
The Blue Zones concept, popularized by Dan Buettner, claims that certain regions around the world have populations living longer due to shared lifestyle habits. While rooted in early demographic research in Sardinia, Okinawa, and Loma Linda, the scientific validity of the idea has been widely questioned. Critics argue that the data used to identify these zones are riddled with errors—such as misreported ages, pension fraud, and unreliable birth records—especially in areas with weak government systems or wartime record destruction.
Studies show that centenarian clusters often appear in regions with poor record-keeping, not because of healthy lifestyles, but due to data inconsistencies. Even within the original research, scientists like Michelle Poulain spent years verifying ages, and some blue zones—like Nicoya—were later found to be significantly smaller or less valid after error corrections. , eating goat’s milk, drinking red wine, or avoiding meat) lacks evidence and often contradicts actual data, such as Sardinians’ higher smoking rates or the fact that Okinawans drink less red wine than average.
The popular narrative also overlooks darker social dynamics, like gender-based neglect of elderly women. The debunking of Blue Zones is not just about data accuracy but reflects a deeper critique of how wellness myths are constructed: they cherry-pick positive elements while ignoring complexity, inconsistency, and structural flaws. Ultimately, while Blue Zones may highlight some interesting cultural patterns, its claims about universal longevity through lifestyle are overstated, misleading, and detached from rigorous scientific validation.
FAQs
Blue zones are regions identified as having high rates of centenarians. They were first discovered in the 1990s by researcher Johnny Pez, who found unusually high numbers of people over 100 in remote areas of Sardinia, Italy. These findings were later confirmed by Michelle Poulain, who spent years verifying age records and mapping the locations, leading to the term 'blue zones' as areas with clusters of blue dots on maps.
Dan Buettner is a journalist and author who popularized the blue zones concept in 2005 through a National Geographic article. He did not coin the term or conduct the original research, but he expanded on it by creating a lifestyle-based narrative, writing a book, and promoting the idea that specific habits could extend life, leading to widespread public interest.
The evidence for blue zones has been challenged by researchers like Saul Newman, who argue that birth and death records are often inaccurate due to clerical errors, missing records, and pension fraud. Studies show high error rates in centenarian data from regions like Japan, Okinawa, and Costa Rica, calling into question the reliability of the clustering of long-lived individuals.
Commonly recommended habits include eating until 80% full, consuming plant-based diets (like soy or goat's milk), regular physical activity, strong social connections, and having a sense of purpose. However, many of these recommendations lack strong scientific backing and are often cherry-picked from data without full context.
Research suggests that factors like genetics, inbreeding, and environmental conditions may contribute to longevity. For example, Sardinia's high male centenarians may stem from genetic or cultural factors, but the exact mechanisms remain unclear. The data does not show a consistent environmental pattern across all blue zones.
Critics argue that blue zones are based on flawed data, selective reporting, and ideological nostalgia. They point out that many recommended habits lack evidence, that some regions have higher smoking rates, and that the concept ignores systemic issues like healthcare access and socioeconomic factors affecting longevity.
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