BlackRock: ecco dove investire nei mercati europei | Morning Finance

[Musica] I mercati richiedono pazienza, ma la pazienza non deve essere gratuita. Mentre aspetti il momento giusto per il tuo prossimo investimento, cos'keyla bowl capital ottiene 2,5% di interesse anno sulla tua liquidità non investita. Inoltre, hai la massima flessibilità, versi e prelevi quando vuoi. Il tutto, con la garanzia sui depositi, li ho una banca tedesca con oltre 40 miliardi di aurengessione e un milione di clienti in Europa. Perito ai risparmi investimenti, scegli scale bowl. In descrizione trovi il link per registrarti e tutti dettagli. Qualche giornofavio letto le sue analisi e strategie sul financial times, in particolar modo sui mercati europei e quindi per aiutarci a navigare questo chaos calmo sui mercati, ma soprattutto capire dove si trovano le migliori opportunità o il grandissimo piacere di dare il benvenuto a Helen Jewel e il mercato di internazione la CIAO, un investimento investimento, il fondamentale liquidità è un bel croc. Helen, buonogne e grazie per essere us. Grazie per mi. Quindi noi usiamo per il punto di vista di che sostenibile è il mercato di markete. È una fine questione e il uno che we fanno il mostro di la momenta, ma la scegnazza di Anso Silva è che è stile, come le manche di stile, ma è che noi ci vediamo nel markete di momenta. Global earnings are forecast to be incredibly resilient over the next 12 months, in double digits e in double digits, across many regions, per 17% globally. E' il momento che abbiamo visto in una scelta, è che la resillanza di questi earnati è come in passata. Se se vi scelta in le manche di le manche, per il risultato di situazione in i miei, noi stiamo pensando che è Enough of a headroom in i giorni di per mantenere il markete di la merita che vi vediamo, quindi si sono sostenibile e si è potendo essere aggiornati per il momento. Quindi ci vediamo più fondamentale o liquidità e posizione o i miei. È un bel po' da quale è per il momento, ma è solo sui fondamenti. Il sector che vi vediamo è che la performance si è molto bene, per se le manche sono sono sono di più di più. E' un'altra cosa che abbiamo visto è una rilistra di earnati di rete, che è qualcosa di fare con la economia e la economia di resillanza. È un'altra cosa che non è il profondore di energia, è anche la economia di rete e la economia di rete. E' anche le manche di rete, per fargli un'altra economia di rete, per il tempo che non si è potuto. E' solo per fargli un'altra economia di rete e la economia di rete e la economia di rete, che è potendo essere potendo essere in un modo di rete e la economia di rete, che è potendo essere in un modo di rete e la economia di rete, che è potendo essere in un modo di rete, che è potendo essere in un modo di rete, che è potendo essere in un modo di rete, che è potendo essere in un modo di rete e la economia di rete, che è potendo essere in un modo di rete, che è potendo essere in un modo di rete, che è potendo essere in un modo di rete, so hell And what is your view on the attractiveness of the US, European, and emerging markets. -Well if we were having this conversation a year ago attering, we had very much focused on the fact that Europe looks cheap relative to the US because what you saw is quite a significant valuation gap at that point in time but of course Europe and indeed the emerging markets had a really, really strong performance in 2025 so that valuation gap has closed. There is in that very obvious one geography, one region that looks relatively cheap versus the others anymore. So instead what we're focused on is where we see pockets of opportunity. And if I start with the US, what's really interesting in the US is the convergence that you're seeing in the earnings numbers between the Mag 7 and the remaining 493. I think so much of the US has been focused on that Mag 7 that actually what we're forgetting is that there are 500 stocks in the S&P alone and then more than that of course if you move more broadly. And some of those companies are incredibly large. I could $200 billion company in the US is only about 0.2% of the S&P, you know $200 billion company in the Europe would be an enormous company. And therefore it's so important that we think about those 493 and you're seeing real earnings convergence there. If we went back four or five years, the Mag 7 were basically all of the earnings growth in the US. And now there's still the dominant earnings growth. But the remaining 493 are also really strong earnings growth providers as well. So in the US it's all about broadening out the story. In Europe on the other hand, I think there is a dominance of a particular set of sectors. One of those is the semis. The semis have done incredibly well. Another of those is the European banks, which we continue to be overweight. We think we'll continue to do well. And another of those is any of those names that are linked to that energy security story. So for example, the German industrials. And then if we move to the emerging markets, the emerging markets earnings, Silvia, actually forecast to grow faster than any other region. And there it is powered by the AI spending beneficiaries, particularly in Korea and Taiwan. Then on the other end of the spectrum, you've got some really interesting value opportunities in Latin America. And then the Japanese story, which I think is really interesting because now you've got real political stability in Japan. So in the US it's about broadening out. In Europe it's about particular sectors. And in Korea you've got growth, you've got value, and you've got some really interesting political beneficiaries. So I wouldn't say any particular region is now cheap or expensive. But instead you've got pockets of opportunity in each of those different regions, which I think for both active stoppickers, is really exciting because you've got so many different levers to pull. So a really, really interesting way to build really diverse and wide portfolios across different parts of the globe. But as for now, you're overweight on the US and emerging markets, right? We're not overweight necessarily on any particular region, one of the other. I think the short term, of course, in the US and the BlackRock Investment Institute, who are part of BlackRock, have talked about this a lot, is at the moment the US does have less exposure to energy and what we're seeing in terms of the energy shortages as a result of all moves than we see in Europe and the emerging markets. And that's saying that we can't ignore. In the emerging markets, as I've already talked to, have this real exposure to the AI theme. So in terms of kind of, if you like, the short term kind of tactics, yes, the US at the moment is looking quite compelling because of what they've got in terms of that energy, kind of the less exposure from an energy perspective. But in terms of our portfolios as a whole, they are a bit more balanced. But in Europe, there are some sectors in particular that we're focused on. So I'd say going active in Europe, and you might say, of course, Helen, you would say that. Well, I would, because right now, I think, being active in Europe, being overweight, particular sectors in Europe is really important versus necessarily Europe as a whole, where there are perhaps more structural issues that we need to be nervous about because of the exposure that Europe has from the energy perspective. So we try your favorite sectors. So favorite sectors in Europe, we remain very much overweight on the centers. We remain overweight on the European banks. And we remain overweight anything that is linked to energy and energy security. In terms of more globally, that piece on energy security and AI is the key themes that are driving the market. So more globally, there are two themes that we are super focused on. One energy security, so so important. And Sylvia, this was important in January because of the AI story. The IEA forecast that the energy needs globally are going to increase by 4%. That is equivalent to adding the need of Japan every single year. And that is because of the need of not just AI and data centers, but also air conditioning, even here in London today it's nice and sunny. And it's also just generally the need of consumer and consumer needs for electricity. So 4% was the growth. On top of that now, we've got more countries and governments thinking about energy security and energy resilience. And that, therefore, is playing into the need to have more energy and more energy resilience through things like renewables. So that is the key theme that we are leaning into. We're also very focused on the AI theme. AI, we believe, is going to continue to transform and anything linked to AI hardware. So for example, semiconductors is a key mega theme. But for more tactical perspectives, software in the AI space looks actually in some places pretty cheap at the moment. And if you look indeed even at the Mag 7, the Mag 7 have not actually done much from a performance perspective over the last couple of months. But the earnings look really interesting and resilient there. So mega theme wise is about energy security and AI. But actually, again, from an interest perspective and where else there are some interesting pockets for an investor at the moment. Don't ignore software, but be selective. Don't ignore the mag 7, but be selective. Don't ignore the 493. Don't ignore European banks. Don't ignore Latin America. Only 0.7% of the MSCI acquies and yet 7% of global GDP. So mega-themed wise, two mega-themed but interesting opportunities, as I mentioned in many other places as well. So there is plenty of opportunities where valuation cross, of course, the potential growth of earnings and not just that, as you were mentioning tactically. Do you think the rotation is back because we have seen a rotation out of technology and these months things are changing? Yes. So I think the one thing on the rotation, let's talk about the rotation first, Sylvia, because I think the rotation was actually very much linked to a D-risk. It wasn't a rotation away from technology stocks or indeed away from some of those semi-stocks because people thought the fundamentals were weakening. It was what was happening six weeks ago at the start of the conflict in the Middle East is that portfolio managers needed to D-risk. And if you need to D-risk, you could only D-risk from a starting point of where you are invested. So if you are overweight, for example, technology stocks, if you then want to D-risk, you have to sell technology stocks in order to D-risk. So that was not about the fundamentals. That was about D-risk in portfolio. I think what we're seeing now is we're seeing a feeling that maybe we're seeing some resolution of the conflict and therefore portfolio managers are starting to re-risk once again. They're putting that capital back to work and where they want to put it back to work is where they see the long-term winners are and that's many of those things that we've just talked to as well as when those pockets of value are again, those areas that we've just talked to. So I think that's what we're seeing at the moment. Now, if there is nervousness about how long the situation in the Middle East may last and if there is nervousness about what they will do to earnings, if there is nervousness about stiflation, if there is nervousness about GDP, we will see a D-risk again and therefore we will see a move out of those names. So I think we just have to be kind of disaggregating this point of how positions are being made from a fundamental position and how they're being led by how portfolio managers want to D-risk and re-risk. So the moment we're going back into more of a re-risk and therefore it's those technology names and other winners that are doing well. And the one thing not to ask me, Silvice, how long the conflict might last. That's something that I absolutely do not know the answer of. But if we see some of the differences indefinitely, if it doesn't like it might last for longer, I think you might see a pull back in those names, but don't think it's because the fundamentals are weakening. It is because portfolio positioning is changing. So Helen, you mentioned AI and energy and everything leads me to China. So I don't know if it can be considered inside the emerging markets because of course it's a double question. But what is your view on China? So what China did back in 2018-2019 is they moved from a consumer-led market to an industrial production-led market. And that was exactly the right thing to do because what they have now is the market leading in terms of innovation and in terms of leading technology when it comes to things like batteries, when it comes to turbines, when it comes to a lot of the areas that we need for solar and solar production. They are absolutely leading the way. And that re-industrialization of China means that they have so many of the key components of what is needed in the industrial chain. Now, China I think is one area that you do have to be selective because the key thing with China is that there is so much competition in China. One of my colleagues talked about the auto-sector and said there's over a hundred car companies in China. And what you're seeing, therefore, is of course the price is coming down and the margins coming down. So you need to be selective. Where are the areas of the Chinese market? Where the competition is not quite as fierce and therefore the margins are that little bit more resilient. And where are the parts of the Chinese market? Where the competition is so great that from an investing perspective it probably doesn't make as much sense. So China should absolutely be part of every portfolio. It is absolutely a key part of any portfolio. But I think being selective in the sectors where the competition is less fierce and in the sectors where they are a key part of the supply chain of what we need, particularly in that energy space where I think in solar and in battery technology they really are leading the way. But also in AI, they really, you know, six, seven years ago, moving away from consumer to industrial. It was a very, very clever thing to do. And that means that they really do have a huge amount of capabilities in the industrial space and basically in solving a lot of the world's problems right now. But you have to be able to do it selectively in the parts of the market where the margins are that little bit more robust. So from an investment perspective, they're more interesting for long term returns. Helen, thank you very much for being with us. Thank you so much for having me. Always so interesting to talk about the markets, particularly at moments like this. So thank you for inviting me. Thank you.