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Bitcoin vs Gold vs Stocks: The Chart Everyone Misses | Jordy Visser

37m 58s

Bitcoin vs Gold vs Stocks: The Chart Everyone Misses | Jordy Visser

The discussion centers on how artificial intelligence is dramatically accelerating economic change, compressing timeframes for market cycles and investment theses. A key argument is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is outdated, as it relies on historical data rather than anticipating AI's disruptive, deflationary impact on labor and long-duration assets. This necessitates a more forward-thinking, less academic approach, with speculation that the next Fed chair may align with this view. Simultaneously, a major commodity bull market is emerging, driven by insatiable physical demand from AI data centers, military expansion, and renewable energy infrastructure, with silver highlighted as a critical, supply-constrained mineral. In contrast, software is becoming abundant and deflationary, threatening existing business models. Bitcoin is framed as a scarce digital asset within this paradigm, where value accumulation in scarce assets (physical or digital) may occur in dramatically shorter periods. The overall thesis warns that investors and policymakers must adapt to a world where AI accelerates everything, flipping traditional valuation and strategic models.

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(upbeat music) - What's up everyone? This is Anthony Palmpleano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me. If you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. - Anthony Palmpleano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are surely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guest as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. - If we need certain things in a certain amount of time, we can't get them if they're physical. We can certainly get them if they're based on software. And so Bitcoin fits in this world where I think it is a scarce asset. Things that are scarce are getting more valuable. And I think people just need to be a little bit more focused on if it goes down to 70,000 before it goes to 200,000 and it takes only a month to get to 200,000. Pay attention to silver. People I got frustrated and ended up watching something go up dramatically in a short amount of time. - All right guys, Jordan and I are both traveling, but we are not going to miss a single week to bring you guys all of his thoughts. Jordan, I thought a great place to start the conversation is the Fed decision this week. They have a citizen decided to pause on the interest rate cuts. I probably disagree, but I don't know how you think about this. What do you think about the Fed decision? - So, whether I agree with the decision or not, I understand or we learned a lot about how they're thinking about this. And this problem is going to be there even when the new Fed chair takes over. It's something I think people have to just come to terms with. And the reason I say that, you are focused on inflation heading lower. At the same time, that's happening. Oil prices are up over 10% in the last call it 10 days. Silver is obviously up dramatically. D-RAM prices are up dramatically. We're going to see prices go up dramatically for iPhones, for computers, for everything because of D-RAM prices, silver prices, that's all coming. So there's going to be pockets of inflation. And it's going to, again, bring some issues that come in. Do I think that the labor situation, we also had the Atlanta Fed wage number come out? I mean, it was a big drop. We're still, we still have a problem with the labor market. And I think that's going to be an issue going forward. So I don't agree with what, with the fact that they're not being more aggressive. But I understand that they can't really be cutting rates aggressively when you've got inflation kind of poking its head. You've got parabolic moves. End at the same time. You have a stock market that has moved higher. And is it all time highs? Now, when you look at the Fed making this decision, it's very complex. There's a lot of inputs that Darcy paying attention to. And one of the things that I think I am probably more sensitive to, yes, inflation is one key component. But it does feel like they don't get to make a decision on a day-to-day basis. And the speed at which this is all moving is very different than maybe you would expect in a normal economy. And so to me, there's a bigger risk of them falling behind or kind of getting behind the curve. Do you worry about that at all? Yeah, I wrote a paper on time. And just this whole concept that when things are moving at an exponential pace, everything is kind of vulnerable here. If you're a VC, or you're a private equity firm, or a private credit firm, or anything related to long duration, software, where valuations are high, what is happening in all these markets, including commercial real estate? If we're not going to have any people working in five years, what do we need commercial real estate for? If we're going to have deflation in humanoids in five years, why are we going to have rates at anything but zero? This is the problem is that we've entered a world where AI is moving so fast, faster than we can deal with it as a society. The Fed should be thinking more forward-looking. Now, this is the argument that Scott Besson has made. This is also what Rick Reader has agreed with, which is this is more like coming out of the internet in the way the Greenspan dealt with things where he was willing to cut rates, even as the stock market was raging. I think we're going to be in that debate for a long time, because again, the acceleration that's happening on artificial intelligence, that we've just seen in the last three months with the software side, the disruption that it's having, all long duration assets are under question because of this, and I think that's going to be a focal point for the Fed. They're making decisions based on data today and not focusing on five years from there. Now, there's rumors about who's going to be the next Fed chairman. We've obviously seen Hasit. We've seen various people kind of put up. The latest one is Rick Reader. Do you take anything away from that rumor being floated? Do you think that Trump is kind of testing the messaging? What's kind of your takeaway? Well, let's go through the chain of events. I mean, Waller was up for it, then Hasit was, and then Warsh went into the lead. Every time someone gets the lead, whether you agree with Donald Trump or not, since he's making the final decision, he seems to really be on X focusing on what people are saying. And the biggest critique, so in Hasit, you end up with a scenario that people are worried about the credibility of the Fed. They're worried that he's just a yes man for Trump. Warsh gets in. Warsh has been hawkish since he was hawkish during the Great Financial Crisis. It's very difficult for you on one side to say, okay, you're going to cut rates, right? We need them to be down 100 basis point, which is clearly what Trump wants, and then put someone in that doesn't agree. So he's had to find someone I think that is credible, which Hasit clearly was not, and at the same time believes what he believes, which Besson believes too. And that's why my gut tells me that the reason reader has written up the ranks is because he agrees on those two points. He believes rates should be lower, 'cause we should be thinking ahead. I think the only way that you can do that is if you're less academic, and he is the least academic of the group. And I wrote a piece on this that the Fed is going to have to be less academic going forward. It's going to have to be more forward looking and caring less about the past. And I think it's investors you've had to do the same thing. So that's where I think this is coming down is that reader is taking the lead, because Trump wants to get someone to lower rates. And to do that, you have to believe in technology in the disruptive impact. - I think the biggest hurdle to getting a Rick Reader to be the Fed chairman is you're going to have to put on a tie rather than have two buttons undone and looking like he's ready to take on the world. So we'll see how that goes. You wrote this piece about time in Bitcoin this past week, which I thought was really good. - Maybe explain a little bit about your thesis here. - Well, this was really, we were at the event last week, the crypto event. And the frustration was clearly there. Bitcoin's been, for the lack of a better word, nothing asset now for over a year. And it's clearly frustrating people. It was a very different environment than what we saw last year when we were there. And I wrote the piece because we get caught in this, it hasn't been moving for this amount of time, which is true. But the reality is, as we've learned from Silver, Silver was, you know, unchanged not that long ago since 2012. Now all of a sudden it's gone through the roof. We're starting to, you know, people are out there saying, you can't look at Arithmetic charts. You have to look at logarithmic charts. And the reason is because it didn't move for a long time. I think what we're in is a world where everything is moving faster. The pace of AI is moving so fast that every time someone wants to, hey, this is X percent above the 200 moving average I want to get out of it. And part of what I wrote in there is just a psychological belief with people, which is, if you buy Apple, you know, if you bought Apple at $2, and it went from $2 to $100 in a short amount of time, you're going to sell out of it because your brain is going to be like, that doesn't matter. I don't want to be involved. If on the other side it takes 20 years to get there, same price, you're not going to get out of it as quickly. So I think the issue that really comes down for people is, we're at this point where time has changed. And the easiest way to say it is, when Dario Modai and Demisis Abbas and all the scientists come out and they say, every year in innovation is like what a decade was. Well, by definition, that means that when we reach the point of this stuff going, software stocks can quickly go to zero. They can. Not all companies will go to zero. But if you're not able to adapt quickly and pivot your business, which is really hard for big businesses, you're vulnerable. If all of a sudden silver becomes an issue and people realize we don't have enough silver, they start buying for the next five years. Think about the deals we've seen. Elon Musk did a deal with Samsung back in July for chip $16 billion and actually bigger than that. Nvidia did a deal with Samsung in October. We had this week corning, which I've brought up on this show, gap tire and the reason it gap tires, 'cause optical fibers were clearly running out because Meta did a $6 billion deal with them. We are at the hoarding stage of physical stuff. Software is abundant. You can make as much code as you want, sit in there and wherever you are right now. I can do the same thing. We can't go out and mine silver. We can't go out and actually find any other than it being in a drawer, maybe of a flea market or somewhere, someone's trying to sell it. So I think we've reached a point that time is moving so fast that people have to realize if we need certain things in a certain amount of time, we can't get them if they're physical. See what got frustrated and ended up watching something go up dramatically in a short amount of time. >> Well, what I thought was interesting is Nick Zaba, who's obviously been a very famous cryptographer and engineer and now a big Bitcoin or for a number of years. He was talking about the fact that Bitcoin had peaked in gold terms. And so he was looking at it more from that may be the cycle to pay attention to not the Bitcoin denominated in dollars. Do you ever think about the stock market now as flat in gold terms, if you go back to the global financial crisis, Bitcoin, pricing, gold, does that ever enter into and of your evaluation? >> It does at this point, I literally in this weekend's video, I'm putting it together now and I have a chart in there of gold relative to the S&P back to 1970. And it peaked magically enough in 1980, which was when the personal computer basically that credit is starting. Personal computer or IBM actually came out in 1981, but the reality is between the Apple 3 coming out 1980 and IBM's computer coming out in 1981, that was basically the peak in gold relative to the S&P. I have said before and I will continue to say that I believe what is happening right now is that we are entering a world where all companies, all enterprises, all mega cap stocks are gonna have trouble dealing with artificial intelligence and it's the rise of the entrepreneurs and it is basically a slow moving problem for all of the bigger companies. Now they will be at a point where they'll be replacing employees, but what we're seeing with the hyperscalers and what I want people to understand, we've already run into a capacity problem. We can't run as much code as we want to run because there's no cloud for it, which means these businesses are gonna be forced to buy their own AI factories, which is what Jensen Yuan has talked about. When you buy your own factory, meaning you're making your own tokens, well, great, now you're gonna be cat-bexing. This is gonna be a very challenging thing to get through this. So I think we're at kind of the inflection point, but the only way it works and it's a race for getting the physical side. So hardware should be bought, anything that needs to create compute and that goes farther than just semiconductors. It goes farther than silver, farther than copper because you're getting into the energy side and that's one of the reasons why oil went higher and you're gonna start me talk, hear me talking more about it. The cost or input of silver back in, in fact, you probably haven't heard this, but this will be on the video. In 2019, silver's percentage cost for solar was 3%. It's now up over 30. So that means that solar is getting more expensive and the cost or the input cost is becoming more silver heavy. Now silver could easily go up another three, four times from where it is because of the fact that we don't have enough supply and it's needed in the military and it's needed for the data centers and the phones and everything else. So you're starting to get into the world where it has an impact on solar production which has an impact on power production. We have gas turbine shortages. This is one of the reasons why eventually it trickles down to oil it trickles down to aluminum, it trickles down to everything 'cause we're looking for replacements for everything. When you get into a commodity bull market which we haven't been in for since 2003 to 2008, you end up in a very tricky situation where everything that's physical we try to get and use and I think that's what's happening in the market and I think we are in the very early stages 'cause right now the adoption is just starting to pick up in terms of AI. - Today's episode is brought to you by Figur. My friends at Figur are giving away $25,000 in USDC as part of their democratized prime sweepstakes. Here's how it works. 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If you want to earn competitive yield and enter for a chance to win $25,000 in USDC, download the Figure Markets app using the link in the description and deposit into democratized prime today. As always, make sure you do your own research and understand the risks before putting capital to work. Go check out Figure and their democratized prime sweepstakes today. >> We're going to talk in a second about the software companies kind of falling off the cliff and people trying to pick the bottom. But on the medals, I see a lot of people talking about, man, I missed gold, silver, copper, platinum. But now I'm scared to buy in because I think it's the top. How do you think about assets that are on these very significant runs and investing, not investing, picking a top? Realizing is going to keep running. You just mentioned silver could go up through your four more times. Just talk through a little bit as to if you're an investor thinking about these assets that are already in a bull market, how to maybe evaluate it. >> Well, the first thing is, and I just gave you some of the solar side, it's getting to a point where the largest demand for it, because solar is the largest demand for silver at this point. You should start to see less demand for solar, and you'll start seeing switching to some degree for, okay, let's do coal, let's do natural gas. Let's get generators, whatever the case is. The problem is, silver is also used and needed, like I said, in the military. This is a critical mineral. There's a reason why they have the name critical mineral. And I want people to fully grasp this rare earth silver. These things all fit into it. I mean, the US has basically been making announcements after announcements since the tariff situation. So my belief is that all of these things are going higher. At a minimum, here's what I'll say. Even if silver, let's say it peaks at 125, it goes to 200, it falls back to 100. The main thing I can say to everyone is, it isn't going down in price when we need it for all those S curves hitting at the same time. I wrote a piece for 22V this week where I highlighted the S curves are all happening at the same time, meaning we're at that point in the S curve where all the demand kicks in. And it's happening at the exact same time we need it for EVs. Autonomous vehicles are getting revved up. Autonomous trucks are getting revved up. Humanoids, drones, everything in the military. We're rebuilding the military. You know, I don't know if we talked about it last week on the show, but I've talked about it before. Certainly we ran out of ammunition. I mean, munitions for the United States, who are down at very low levels post Israel from getting them and also Ukraine, we need to rebuild the military. At the same time, Europe is building up the military and doing it for the first time. And you've got people like Jeff Curry used to be a Goldman Sachs doing interviews saying, this is as big for Europe as it was for China in 2003 to 2007. I'm not getting into the numbers of the commodity needs there, but both of those are price insensitive. If you're trying to have military supremacy, there's no price for this. People should go back and look at what happened in the United States during World War II and what we did for stopping people from using copper and what we had to do to actually go through it. The price was infinite. I think we're at a point right now where people just have to realize the only thing that could really make this pull off dramatically is honestly, if commodity, if energy prices went up so high that there was nothing to do to slow down the AI, I just think commodities at this point are insensitive because of the small cost for these critical minerals as an input, the only one that's starting to reach a level that people should pay attention right now is solar. >> All right, let's talk about software. You mentioned earlier, it is much easier to create software. I see people on a daily basis posting online, emailing me. I even see some people inside of our companies who are building products that can do things that entire businesses can do, whether it is CRMs or sync with my Gmail and my calendar or maybe it's a document signature type platform, et cetera. We see software companies going down and my guess is that those things are connected. If it's easier to build software than software companies now some questions from investors, what is your analysis of why the sell-off is so severe? And is this a temporary thing or is there a structural change that's happening in the market? >> Well, first of all, because we've talked about it now three weeks in a row, I mean there's a bigger story here that people have to start to go through. Our salesforce.com, Adobe, are these big companies that have Microsoft, are they going out of business? Absolutely not. Is there a question about their ability to pivot and compete with what's happening? Well, right now since November 28th, 29th, when really Opus 4.5 came out, I posted this in X, but it's been body blow after body blow every week, there's something else. It's Opus 4.5, then it's Claude code, then it's co-work, then it's a Claude bot, and then this week X is littered with showing how people are using Claude and Excel and how great it is. Well, that's Microsoft's Honeypot. How can we be showing Claude in Excel when it's Microsoft's product and never, is there a copilot thing in X viral? Never, no one even talks about it. So the issue is for me on this, we're seeing Anthropics revenues go through the door. It's a company that is very tiny relative to Microsoft. Microsoft has had three years since CHATGBT was released. Initially, they were the ones thought that they would win. We were talking about numbers that were massive for them because they had a strangle hold on the enterprises. Everyone has Microsoft inside the enterprise. So how are they losing this? It is very difficult for companies to change and be able to pivot because they'd have to bastardize their own product and compete with it. And so what they do is, they're trying to figure out ways, Microsoft has two issues. One is, they don't have a model, meaning they're not one of the frontier model companies. So they're competing to some degree or they have to use their model. The second thing is though, they're in the cloud business. Well, you know what the cloud business needs? It needs data centers. You know what the problem is with that? They're competing again with the model companies, which are basically able to sell this stuff and are seeing the revenues grow. So Anthropic this week came out and said, the revenues for next year are likely to be $55 billion. This was the company. I believe it was $1 billion, then it was $10 billion. Now they're forecasting $20 billion for this year. I mean, it'll be above $20. They're raising money. I heard it was five or six times over subscribed on most podcasts. They're raising $20 billion. This is just a scenario that software companies have to be re-rated. There is definitely uncertainty five years from that, whether they'll be able to compete. So you go back to what I said about long duration assets. These are long duration assets. They are growth companies. So they assume they're going to get growth. And secondly, they're priced in price to sales. They've had high multiples for a long time. So I think you could argue the fact that all we're seeing right now is letting the air out of the companies. But when you have Microsoft down 10%, when you have Service now down 10%, and you have SAP down 17% in Germany, all in the same day, all on earnings reports clearly, at this point, the market is saying, you know what? We don't need as many. And I just want to remind people, the sizeofsalesforce.com is not that much off of Chevron. For those people who watch my video, I've been saying that one of my favorite ways to play this, rather than try to short software, because it's already been beaten down, is to be long Chevron against it. 'Cause at the time, they were the exact same market cap when I pitched the trade. This month, if you have that trade on, you're up 40% for zero. So Chevrons up and Salesforce is down. There's never been a move of this magnitude since the day Salesforce got into the industry. I think we're at the beginning of what will be a mega massive rotation. And the rotation is out of software, so abundance, things that can be created overnight. It's just gonna get easier. And it is a world where you want to be long the things that are creating the intelligence and needed for that are scarce. Micron technology, all the. I know they've had a big run, but you know what Elon Musk said last night on Tesla's call, he says we will be out of memory in three years. We're already out of memory. He said he's building a fab for memory. If Elon Musk is telling the world, this is not over in terms of the semis, we won't have the chips. I think people should really pay attention and just realize we are at a very, very historic inflection point where software has dominated for a long time. It will take a long time for this to normalize. And I think we're still in the very early endings, but we're through the part where from this point, it's probably gonna be more challenging if you've got trades on, but I would still be long Chevron over salesforce.com as a thematic trade that'll last the entire year. - Now, people have been listening to you and I do this now for a number of weeks, maybe even months. They may have some of these positions that you've been talking about, whether it's thematically or individual names. And there's a lot of people who I talk with who those positions have run. And some of them didn't even come from, you know, you and I talking. They have iron or they have micron or whatever. And one of the things that I've been talking with them about is how do you think about selling, trimming, resmitigating, et cetera. On something where you bought it, it ran up a lot. And now you're sitting on a fairly material position. You may still be bullish about, you know, the future prospect of this asset, but you also feel almost fiduciary due to yourself to say, hey, maybe I should be taking some chips off the table. Do you have any advice or kind of insights in terms of how you've done that in your career that maybe people can borrow? - Yeah, so I'm doing that now. I am reducing because, I mean, micron from the first time that I talked about it, it's up seven times. So I got in some on liberation. That's good. But here's the thing. Do I think he can go up seven times from here? No. Do I think there will be supply coming online in the next three years? Yeah. It's still cheap. I still think it's going higher, but do I think that it peaks around, I don't know, 700, 800, 1000? Yeah. Well, that means by definition, let's assume it goes to 1000. You got in at 60. Well, that means right now we've done a lot of the trade. It doesn't mean we're done, but in percentage terms, we've done a significant part of it. So I've kind of looked it as I want to be reducing there and I want to be moving some stuff into things that I will still think will still benefit that will go up more. If you ask me over the course of the next year from here, I think corning will outperform my crumb. I still think corning is at a very early stage, even though it's had a big run because I think optical fibers, Meta just said to a signal, they're we don't have enough and they're going to benefit from the glass build out for the phones and the computer. So and the auto. So I look to look for other themes that maybe haven't run as much in terms of like silver. The silver miners to me are a great place to be in because they've traded at a discount relative to the metal and the reason is because these are cyclical businesses where you think eventually silver will reach a level and it'll collapse. That I don't think is going to happen this time. So energy companies to me trade at cyclical levels. So at the same point do companies like corning, micron is still cheap. So I'm still in micron, but I've reduced the position and I'm looking for other things. But remember for everything that we're talking about that I've been right on, I'm really been wrong on microstrategy and I've really been wrong on Bitcoin. So there's always something in the portfolio that's not working at a given time. I still believe in those positions. So I've been adding to those as well. I added to them, you know, when Bitcoin got under 105, I did it under 100. I did it when it broke back above 92. So those haven't worked, but a lot of that is coming from a rotation in my portfolio. I'm assuming that eventually I'll get a parabolic move there. I still believe that's a place to go, but that's what it is. I constantly am looking for new fresh ideas to move into. I have a lot of these semiconductor names that are analog based that I don't think have participated yet in the same way. So I've also mentioned terror dying. I've also mentioned a lot of names like that, lattice semiconductor. These are all names that still have a long road ahead of them. I mentioned a sml. That one's had a big run. I still think that has a long way to go. So I look for other positions when something has had that kind of a run, but I'm still going to be in it. Today's episode is brought to you by Abra, the secure way to grow crypto wealth. Abra offers individuals and institutions end-to-end crypto wealth management solution, including custody, trading, yield, and crypto-backed loans through a unique separately managed account structure where title is retained by you, the client. In other words, your assets stay your assets. Abra has been partnering with crypto holders for eight years and has processed over $2.5 billion in loans today. With Abra's loan product, you can access up to 50% of the current value of your collateral. There's no minimum or maximum loan sizes, and Abra can handle nine-figure plus loans. Rates are extremely competitive in the 4.5 to 6.5% APY range. Loans are open-term, meaning you can keep borrowing against your collateral without closing a loan as the price appreciates. Buy a house, take a trip, make a large purchase, or diversify your investments without selling your Bitcoin. All deposits are held in secure NPC wallets, and there is no re-hypothication. Find out more at abra.com and tell 'em pomps at you. Again, that's abra.com and tell 'em. Big pomps sent you. >> Makes a ton of sense for me. One of the other big pieces of news is SpaceX and XAI are now contemplating potentially merging in the private market before SpaceX goes public. And SpaceX already made a $2 billion investment. I think an XAI Tesla just announced that they in January of this year has made a $2 billion investment. What's going on in Elon's world? Elon is really focusing on merging these three companies, or at least making people think that they're one. I mean, he's talked about it on almost every podcast I've listened to for the last. I want to say six weeks. The moonshots podcast in particular, but then the one that he had, where he was interviewed by the Indian gentleman, where he said, "What is your fascination with X?" And he basically said, "Well, it's kind of the crossing point, so do you think of Tesla crossing with SpaceX "is crossing with XAI?" We have all of this stuff. I mean, Elon has just really thought about everything going forward. And I think he realizes how important capital raises are. SpaceX is going to be valued at over a trillion dollars. XAI will be valued, I don't know, 300 to 500 billion. And Tesla's obviously already over a trillion dollars, but for the build out, he's at the big phase now. He needs a lot of rockets. He needs a lot of humanoids. He needs a lot of cars. He needs a lot of batteries. We're finally at the build out stage. And I think his primary thing is to make sure that this story has all the capital needs that he can get 'cause he doesn't have to do a lot of fundraising. And I think that's everything that people have thought about. He has really thought ahead on everything from the vertical integration side and the scaling side. I think now he's thinking about how important the capital is going to be because he's going to need a lot of capital to build out the stuff that he needs. Do you worry at all about the public market's not liking? Let's just say SpaceX and XAI, but even if he puts all three of them together, is there a risk that he's taking here? And it's not just like Elon makes money for everyone. And so he's got a free walk to doing this. - I would say if these were normal times, and I say normal times, let's go back to the time side, you have to think about how long these things will play out. Like you normally would think about a business and you make decisions. I mean, I don't think you've worked at Morgan Stanley. I'm telling you right now, things cannot move fast in an organization that big. I mean, they just can't. Starting around September, everyone starts stressing about what they're going to get paid. And everyone kind of doesn't want to make mistakes. They don't want it. So that becomes the inertia, but think about what September is. You just finished the summertime. Like big companies, there's just no way to move fast. And so for XAI and Tesla at this, Elon is on a different time schedule than everyone. He works around the clock. He's a workaholic. I think when he does things, he's doing them because he sees how fast things are moving and when they're not moving that fast, he doesn't really care. I really do think people do not pay enough attention to what he says and does. We've talked about how much people minimize them and how much they don't believe in them. By the way, if people want to guess which coast them on, that's the sun coming up in my face, gradually lighting my eyes up. So I'm definitely not Miami anymore, definitely. The sunset is coming up or the sun, the sunset is basically going in my eyes. I think Elon is the person people want to focus on for these things. And I think he's saying he needs capital now. He's in a race for it with everyone else. And he believes that we are at that intersection point. I think it's the reason that people should be focused again on Tesla. I think it'll be the best performing night seven name this year. I think it has everything going forward. The Robo Taxi side, but also anything with SpaceX and XAI is just saying that we're at that point of the, let's just say the merge of everything happening at the same time. Yeah, it does feel like Tesla is the purest way to play the AI in robotics. Out of any company in the public market, would you agree with that? Yes, let's put it this way. I don't see how people haven't figured out that Waymo can't compete with Tesla when it wants to just run. He can make cars very quickly. Uminoids, how can these smaller companies? They may have, they might have humanoids that, you know, work as well. Maybe they even have one that works better. You still have to have the manufacturing and the scaling. And that's and the vertical integration. You need to have the parts you need to think about it. He just has thought about all these things. And it's not to say that he won't have shortages, because he will. But Elon Musk has thought about these problems. He's talked about him for years. His first thing was that Tesla was not a car company. And yet people still chastise him when the car isn't going to make enough money. So I do think that he's the only place I can scale fast enough. He, um, he retweeted me today, because that posted a chart of Tesla's free cash flow. And it's basically just, you know, this line that's straight up in the air. I know every other electric vehicle maker is down into the right. But his comment was not for long. And I think he was talking more about the electric vehicle categorization. And he wasn't about anything else. Yeah, I spend a lot of money, too, I'm telling you. Of course, give people a little preview. What's the video this Sunday? And then anything you want to talk about with the HRV work that you've been doing? So on the, on the video for the week, obviously it's the end of the month. We went through the first month. We've gone through not only Microsoft earnings, but we've, we've gone through other mag seven earnings. Metas was obviously very good. Apple came out after the close today, blew away the iPhone. So all those people that I said, I'm buying an iPhone. If you are thinking of buying a computer and you're thinking of buying anything from a technical basis to upgrade, look now because the cost of that stuff is going to go higher. So I'm going to cover the cost side. I will go through cornings announcement with meta and just highlight to people that there's a lot of different places to get, to get names out of that that you can invest in going forward. I will hopefully be able to highlight to people some of the things on the energy side. Energy is breaking out. I do think this story is, is in the early innings. I do think batteries are in the early innings. So I'm going to cover some of that. And then on the HRV, I didn't send you this, but I did launch the HRV podcast. People have been very, very good to me. They've subscribed. They've gone to the paywall. The paywall for 22v is right there. We're actually at the stage now where I've seen the stuff. So it will be launched. I'm in California. I will be doing another one of the videos. So the video stuff is going to be done. But the HRV sub stack is number five on the best seller, new bestseller list. So it's done very, very well. And the people that have subscribed that have reached out, they're learning a lot. But more importantly, and I think this is the part for people who are watching now that didn't know this. I'm going to say this again and again and again. I'm going to be on the West Coast for a while. I have to do presentations to endowments and foundations. I say to everyone the same thing, whether you believe in AI, whether now you're getting scared of AI because of how fast it's moving. You're making a big mistake if you're not figuring out how to use it. That's really where I focus my attention on the speeches I'm giving now. I'm basically looking people in the eyes and going, if not for you, if not for your company, then you have to do it for your kids. And the reason is it is moving way too fast. That is going to be a focal point again on the video. I'm doing a lot more things with 22V on the consulting side. The demos I'm doing are helping people at this point. And I had a really interesting conversation with someone today on the HRV side because they didn't know how important it was from an aging basis. But now watching the videos and going through it, they're really concerned that they also don't want to age because they believe the technology is getting here right now. And if you believe that the technology is here, you have to focus on your health right now. So hopefully I continue to get people subscribed there. At a minimum, I will just keep doing what I'm doing with you and keep doing what I'm doing there. And I'm going to give you a preview. I have gone deep in the rabbit hole of NFTs. So as someone who is only focused on stable coins, he is only focused on Bitcoin. He is only focused on tokenization. I have now seen the macro side connected to AI for NFTs. And this is not about art. This is something much deeper, much more philosophical and gets into the purpose of humans coming out of AI with no jobs. Trust me, I think you're going to like this. And I'm going to post it on sub stack probably Sunday night. I'm very, very happy with this one. I spent a lot of time with it. And there's been a lot of influential people that brought me there. You left the real vision event earlier than I did. I got a lot of good stuff on NFTs before after you left. I'm excited to read it. But I got to go because I got to go subscribe to the HRV thing. I haven't subscribed yet. So I'm going to be your, uh, uh, sounds like maybe you're 10,000 subscriber. But I'm going to get on there as soon as we get off. I appreciate a plug. All right. Sounds good. We'll talk next week. Enjoy your time.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The rapid advancement of AI is accelerating economic and market dynamics, challenging traditional investment and policy frameworks.
  2. Physical commodities like silver, copper, and oil are becoming critically scarce due to simultaneous demand from AI infrastructure, military buildup, and green energy, likely driving a sustained commodity bull market.
  3. The Federal Reserve's current data-dependent, backward-looking approach is seen as inadequate; a more forward-looking policy is needed to address AI-driven deflationary pressures and economic transformation.
  4. Bitcoin and similar assets are viewed as scarce digital stores of value, with their price movements potentially compressed in time due to accelerated technological change.
  5. Software faces deflationary pressure as it becomes easier to create, threatening existing software companies, while physical assets and hardware gain value due to supply constraints.

Summary:

The discussion centers on how artificial intelligence is dramatically accelerating economic change, compressing timeframes for market cycles and investment theses. A key argument is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is outdated, as it relies on historical data rather than anticipating AI's disruptive, deflationary impact on labor and long-duration assets. This necessitates a more forward-thinking, less academic approach, with speculation that the next Fed chair may align with this view.

Simultaneously, a major commodity bull market is emerging, driven by insatiable physical demand from AI data centers, military expansion, and renewable energy infrastructure, with silver highlighted as a critical, supply-constrained mineral. In contrast, software is becoming abundant and deflationary, threatening existing business models. Bitcoin is framed as a scarce digital asset within this paradigm, where value accumulation in scarce assets (physical or digital) may occur in dramatically shorter periods.

The overall thesis warns that investors and policymakers must adapt to a world where AI accelerates everything, flipping traditional valuation and strategic models.

FAQs

The Pomp Podcast, hosted by Anthony 'Pomp' Palmpleano, aims to find and interview the world's most interesting people to help listeners learn from their insights and experiences.

All views expressed by Anthony Palmpleano and his guests are their personal opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. They should not be taken as specific investment advice or inducements.

Bitcoin is considered a scarce asset because its supply is limited, and in a world where scarcity often leads to increased value, it fits as a digital asset that can't be physically replicated like software.

There is concern that the Fed is making decisions based on current data rather than being forward-looking, especially with rapid advancements in AI, which could cause them to fall behind in managing economic shifts.

Silver prices may rise due to increased demand from solar energy, military applications, and AI infrastructure, coupled with limited supply, making it a critical mineral in high demand.

The fast pace of AI disrupts traditional businesses, especially long-duration assets and large companies, by making them vulnerable if they cannot adapt quickly, while favoring agile entrepreneurs and physical commodities.

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