Bill Kristol: Throw the Bums Out

[MUSIC] >> Hello and welcome to the Bullwork Daily. I'm your host Tim Miller, just a scheduling item this week. If everybody could bear with me, I'm traveling around a little bit. And so, and we've got some great guests coming out this week. But I'm not sure I'm going to be quite as on the news as I always am. And so go download the book, take speed because we've got somebody else's on it. Someone at the Bullwork is on the news no matter what. I am for starters tomorrow night going to be at Dartmouth at the alma mater of colleagues Sam Stein. And we'll be together with our friend Liz Smith. I think that's at five o'clock at the aptly named Rockefeller Center for our people. So if you're up there and you hamps your Vermont, come hang tomorrow night. And then I'm popping around a couple other obligations. One other thing I didn't want to shout out, please keep in your thoughts and prayers the family of Deb Weiss, longtime Bullwork listener, commenter, viewer. She passed away over the weekend and we got to meet her at the Minnesota event. She had a long running battle with cancer and it was really inspiring. It was an emotional couple of nights in Minnesota. And it was really gratifying to get to meet her and I was happy that I didn't be able to provide some comfort or for somebody that really cared about the country and wanted to know their people out there fighting. While she was fighting her cancer, so shout out to Deb Weiss and her family. Bill Crystal is with us today. It is Monday, of course, and Bill, you're with us then as well. Now I remember meeting Deb Weiss, she'd asked to come up and have a photo taken with us. And she was clearly suffering from cancer and it was very moving. As you say, it was an emotional end to an emotional couple of days. And so obviously she and her family and our thoughts and prayers enjoyed Dartmouth. It's a nice little school, you know. It's kind of, yeah, not really, but it's, it's, it's an hell of a, it is nice. And I spoke there just a year and a quarter, man's version of some of the other. Yeah, one might, I, you and Sam Steinke discussed that. You should raise that probably on the panel. It's kind of a good talking point there and for me, I feel happy that like Sam and Liz, you know, tried hard in school and high school. They tested very well. They worked hard to get into Dartmouth. As for me, not really, but I think I'm kind of the top bill tonight, having not been brought into the Ivy. Yeah, they're your supporting cast. So that's, that's, that's good. You'll want to stress that at the beginning of the panel too, I think. Yeah. And I think if they put you up in very nice, and they put me up in, and when I spoke a year or two ago, there's a very good like authentic hand over donut shop right down the block away. It's famous in Dartmouth, not really. So at Dartmouth, you'll want to, you'll want to go there and to mention that in your room. I got a lot of credit. I somehow went, I got there that I before. So I had, I was writing one chest, that one, I remember going out at seven a.m. to get a coffee and I got a donut and a lot of credit from the locals for, you know, patients. I liked it. They're famed donut shop. Whose name is escaping me. Whatever. There's only one. There's only one. It's a very small town. Hand over donuts. I'll see you there tomorrow. Hand over donuts. All right. I want to start just briefly on, you know, because we covered a lot last week Springfield that our colleague Andrew Egger was back in Ohio over the weekend. There was a funeral for Pierre-Darmus Bell, which is just devastating rights about that in morning shots. And then later that same evening, Trump has this rally in a date in suburb. Among the things that struck me from his newsletter was that there were a bunch of other speakers, you know, Vivek spoke. He tried to pick up a small child and was unable to drop the kid. John Whostad, running for Senate spokes and other Republicans, Republicans that are, you know, right now, subjecting this torture torment onto their neighbors, the Haitians. None of them said anything about it. And then, you know, Trump was not so timid. He got up there and there was some deport deport chance. And he started talking about Springfield and how it used to be a great place. And we're going to make a great place again. He kind of overlooked the fact that there was mass layoffs at a Springfield plant over the weekend as well during his stewardship of the economy. But I was wondering what you made of all that. Well, first of all, a wonderful piece by Andrew and really moving and important, I would say, reporting what a contrast, the tragic funeral, then Trump's kind of good-task rally. You know, I spoke to Andrew, obviously, several times when he was out there and we talked and we did a show yesterday and people could watch, they wanted to see Andrew reflecting on what he had seen yesterday morning on, I guess, it was full work on Sunday. But what struck me the most, I hadn't realized from the reporting, actually. It shows how, in your people out at Trump, I'd skimmed to obviously a couple of reports of what Trump had said before talking with Andrew. They didn't even mention the fact that he, as you say, no one else raised Springfield out of certain amount of propriety or attack, maybe if nothing else. The rally was about 20 miles away at about three or four hours after the funeral. Yeah, I don't know if it was attacked, probably fear. Well, fear. Yeah. Yes, they'd be booed. They figured by the medical department. Yeah, our political fear. Yeah. I don't know. No, our political fear. They know it's not a winner. Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, fair enough. Anyway, so they didn't raise it for a different reason, as you say. And then Trump went out of his way to raise it. I mean, it wasn't as if the crowd chanting "Deport-Deport," I believe, followed on his endorsing the Mass Deportation Agenda, and then he read that horrible poem, if it's a poem, the steak thing, you know? With reference to immigrants, it was sickly presumed we'd, therefore, in that context to the Haitians who have been so horribly persecuted there and pointlessly and needlessly persecuted. And against the wishes of Ohio, elected representatives, not that they've done much about it, but at least they've said it was a bad idea, Mike Dwight and others. So, yeah, I mean, Trump, the grotesque list of the Trump rally was far home in the conversation I had with Andrew both off-air than on-air yesterday, but also it is peace this morning. I mean, obviously, the economic plans are working. If we mentioned the layoffs in Springfield, like there's no Golden Age, you know, Trump was always better at, and all demagogues really are better at identifying somebody to blame, somebody to point his little tiny finger at, you know, rather than actually doing things to help people. And, you know, we're seeing that in Springfield, we're seeing the other big story over the weekend, the way in which it's a parallel, I guess, to the grotesque grays of Trump's rally is, as you point out, it gets glossed over a little bit because it is such a dog bites man thing. It's just like Trump, oh, Trump holds a rally and they have a racist chance. Like what more is there to cover about that? Like there's no news there. It's not the new part of news, but it's pretty telling that that's what was happening amidst all the horrors that are happening in Springfield. Meanwhile, shout out to the Washington Sun to cover this, here is another story in that same vein. The crypto firm that runs Trump's meme coin was playing to hold another dinner. You might remember the first one they did, right after he got in as president. This one would be, quote, "the most exclusive dinner in the world and evening with three legends and President Donald J. Trump for the 185 largest holders of the Trump coin. We should note that the number of legends promise dropped from four to three on Wednesday. Initially, it was four. So I'm unclear which legend dropped out of the dinner. But there'll be three there. The top 29 purchasers will be invited to an additional VIP reception with the president. Well, the four biggest wallets will also receive a Trump watch. This is just straight bribery. The Trump meme coin has no value. For people who don't like follow crypto, I just kind of understand. Its only value is in the sense that other people are going to purchase the coin, right? And so if you have other people buying lots of Trump coin in order to want to go to this dinner, then the value of the coin will go up. Trump family will get richer. People that work for the company will get richer. The other holders of the coin will offset some of the losses that they've had because the value is going down so much since his last dinner. But so that's all this is. It's just a straight bribe. And it's not even to donate to like a Trump hack or whatever. I could straight into the family's bank accounts. So it's like, hey, you go buy our stupid coin. And if you're one of the top 185, you can come to this dinner. If you're one of the top 29, you can hang out with the president. It is not in any way different from saying, hey, if you bring a bag of cash to the White House, we'll let you see the president, right? And that is all that that's all this is. It's just in a digital form. And am I right that they don't release the names of these people, right? Since it's a private business, they don't have to, right? So we don't know who the 29 biggest bribers of Trump are. That's right. And the last time the reporters out there, you know, because I think it was at his Virginia club. I'm going from memory on that. But so like you would recognize some faces, right? If you came and that's where, you know, there were some people who got partings, it was the corrupt crypto guy, Justin Sun, Chinese national, corrupt guy, got part-end and is now putting a bunch of money into the Trump family. So you know, at some level, I guess if you want to show up to the dinner and you're a notable or you're in the market for a pardon, you might get spotted by one of the people out there. But no, but right other than that, like you can, you can give to this coin and total anonymity, at least for now. We'll see what our friend Robert Garcia and Jamie are asking and folks on oversight are able to tease out from that. Yeah. The corruption, we want to talk about it every week and one probably should and one thinks oh, we've been down that road before, but it is so astounding and so shameless that it's worth reminding. And I do think this is an issue where, do you think politically it's done him, it's done more harm with the public in a way that it has with you. You know, reporters and elite types who've known this was going on and slightly discounted it internally. I do think for the, it is so shameless though and so obviously wrong, you know. Also because of those state of the economy, it's one of these things that maybe you could have got away with this, if the economy was good, but it's just people looking at this and it's like, okay, if the president's literally getting bribed, like his family is getting richer and richer, you know, I think there have been some Democrats who've been particularly good at tying these things together, right, and it is kind of incumbent on non-position party to do that effectively, right. And Tallerika has been really strong on this, basically, you know, talking about making direct tie between the Trump family and the corrupt oligarchs around him, getting rich and enriching themselves, you know, while people struggle. And while people's gas prices are going up and while he's doing nothing to improve the economy for regular folks and so let's, I want to kind of go through the midterm state of play here with you. All right. So we have a spate of new polls out from New York Times Sienna over the weekend that are pretty good. In certain, some places we can really get high on the hopium here and a little bit of mixed back in some other places in Alaska. We have Paltola plus seven in Texas, Tallerika plus six. Notably, Hinahosa and the governor's race up four in the New York Times Sienna poll of Texas. Ohio, we've shared Brown plus three, Amy act and plus four in the governor's race. In Iowa, you've got Ashley Hinson, the Republican leading by one over Josh Turrick and then Rob Sand leading by 11 in the governor's race. And then in Kansas, we have our guy Adam Hamilton in a tie, 45, 45 with Roger Marshall with the libertarian taking five percent. So that's kind of the top line number. You pointed out Bill, the Trump favorability number, which I think is pretty striking here on social media. I'll just read it. Alaska, Trump's at 41% favorable, 56 unfavorable. In June, it was just 47, 49, so a significant drop to minus 15 in Iowa. He's minus 18, 40 favorables, 58 unfavorable in Kansas minus 15, 40% favorable in Kansas for President Trump. In Ohio, 38% favorable, 59% unfavorable and in Texas, he's at 40% unfavorable. So as high watermark, there was Alaska at 41%, significantly down from June. All states to Trump won by more than 10 points in 2024. Yeah. I mean, that gives you a sense of what that's why it's a way for right? You win states by 10 points and you're, your favorables at 40 basically, it all those states now. And correspondingly, your Senate candidates losing a three of them tied in one ahead by one point in one. It is a real wave and that this confirms it for me and it seems to, you know, the Senate races are, they're individual factors and that's probably why some of them are plus six and seven. And others were plus three or even, yeah, that's a pretty startling number. And so if Trump is at 40 in those states, what's he add in states that were five points better for Trump in 2024, 45, 47, he's not at 50 probably. So a lot of states like Idaho, Idaho, yes, Idaho, yes, Idaho is in play, no, but are obviously in the Nebraska of the world. Anyway, I'll get to a couple of those in a second, but it is a very striking, and this is in New York Times, see how they did 600 voters in those states, each of those states. It's a national quality poll. Most state level polls are a little, they're real polls. They just go through the kind of controls and complicated waiting that I've got to say the time. See how it does pretty seriously. And if you read Jonathan Cohn's account of it, it's pretty remarkable. Nate Cohn. Jonathan Cohn is our colleague. Our Jonathan Cohn. Yeah, the, the, the other Cohn. His account of it. It's pretty careful. I take these numbers pretty, you know, pretty seriously. Yeah, I did too. It kind of matches what I would have expected. I mean, the Peltola number, I do think Alaska is very challenging to pull the, or bring up seven. Who knows? I mean, maybe, but the rest of the match, kind of what I had thought, I think Iowa is going to be the toughest. Again, if you look at that main, those four main races of Alaska, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa, like the idea was that Democrats need to win three to get to 52, which is a Federman proof majority, assuming they also hold on to Maine and Michigan. And I've always felt that Alaska, Texas, Ohio are the best options because Iowa, I do think it's tough ask of the people of Iowa to vote for a Democratic Senator and governor. They're Republican, Ashley Henson is a good candidate. I mean, disgusting, but, you know, not as obviously disgusting as Roger Marshall and some of these other Ken Paxden, for example. And so that makes sense to me. The other thing, I thought you were going the other way of where is Trump's approval and some of these other states, where is Trump's approval in Maine and Michigan, if he's at 40 in these states and he's down in the low 30s, you have to imagine. And this is why I just continue to be more bullish on, on Abdul Al-Sayed and Troy Jackson than some of the other folks out there and I think it's always good to be vigilant and to run through the tape. And I think that Susan Collins has a stronger brand than the Republicans running in these red states, but it's just hard to imagine where Republicans winning in states where Trump is in the 30s, favorability. Right. I mean, one other little thing that maybe too little to maybe it's just random, but I think it's sort of interesting. Trump's numbers have dropped four or five points in these states since in three months, since late June when the last time New York Times Seattle hold it. So it's apples to apples comparison. Nationally, I looked up at the Times average example, Trump's down a couple of points from over the last two months. He's been drifting down, but you know, it's been a pretty slow process. Nationally, in terms of approval, you know, sort of 39 to 30s happens, something like that. In these states, which are the weaker Trump states are not that weak because they're better than plus 10, but still not the Trumpiest Trump states. And in states, which have been very competitive of the last few months in terms of paid media advertising at earned media, Trump's numbers have gone down more and these races have opened up in a democratic direction. You could say from that that the more voters are learning or the more advertising, there is the more attention there's focus on the race, the worse the Republican does, not by a massive amount, but by a couple of points. Yeah. And if that were to continue through October, that would be very important to obviously in these states, especially in Iowa and Kansas, which are JT even and maybe in a few other states. I mean, anyway, I think it's an interesting little phenomenon and that would be true also congressional districts does tell me Democrats should really, I mean, I don't know, this is the time for people to get money, honestly, because the Republicans will outspend the Democrats in October, but minimizing that margin and really focusing democratic resources where it could matter seems to have mattered over the last few months. Yeah. And just like a Texas, for an example, they spent tens upon tens of millions of dollars in the airwaves going after telerico, calling them telafrico and talking about all the genders there are and all this other culture war nonsense. It's been the whole ad campaign. And his saver ability hasn't dropped at all and meanwhile, Trump's saver ability is going down significantly in the state over that period, as you said, from, you know, 44, 52 in June to 40, 58 right now. That's just where the movement has been. I think we'll see one potential learning from this is going back to the 24 campaign. The big ad that everybody talked about is that, you know, Commonwealth, where they, them, Trump is for you. And it was kind of like everybody focused on the they, them part of the ad, but the you part was an important part of the ad, like the Trump being for you and, and, and a lot of these center races, particularly in Texas, they're just running the telerico's for they, them part of the, of the race. And that doesn't really seem to be resonating, you know, when, when there's no counterbounds, now again, who know, like maybe there's undercounting of people, maybe, you know, maybe there's response bias, maybe we'll feel differently about this November, but just based on what we know now, that's a potential, I think, interesting development. I think all these center candidates that you think are, I'm saying this in a non, not making a value judge, which is sort of analytically, I think a stronger candidate than Harris probably didn't have her baggage much of that baggage was not her fault. She was vice president in the Biden administration, which was in office and unpopular. None of these people, as I'm right about this is an office, I think, or if they're an office, they're state representatives. Jared has been, Jared has been an office. Yeah. But he's been out. Jared is a state representative and Peltola was in Congress. So yeah, but they're out and they're not guilty of any, they're running as challengers. And this is a good year to be a challenger, you know, right? For sure. Harris couldn't really write as a challenger. Yeah. No, she couldn't. And just as another thing, because it's really solved the discourse out there with people trying to rerun the Harris race and learn lessons from it's like in some ways Harris ran a kind of a more establishment race. Of course, she was the vice president, as you mentioned, she also is from California. I choose the senator from California and a black woman and like all of that, you know, kind of created an image of her as kind of like, you know, for some people to establishment and for other people to liberal, right? And I got a lot of these candidates, you know, don't have any of those issues, their local candidates running local races, they're not, they don't have the incumbent baggage. One interesting kind of discussion I've been saying, and I think this is probably not going to happen. But the money sink for Ken Paxton is really pretty astonishing and they might spend, they will spend more money on the Ken Paxton Senate race than George W. Bush spent in the primary and general of his 2000 presidential win, just as one example, it'll be probably a quarter of a billion dollars put in total and Ken Paxton. And you just look at that and it's like, man, tell Rico, his numbers continue to be high. You almost, I feel the Republicans have to be tempted to throw in the towel in Texas, which is kind of a crazy thing to say, but you could take all of the money you're spending to save corrupt, disgusting Ken Paxton and use it to cover all of these other races because all of these other states, I'll ask, I look, they're all small states. I don't think that they're going to do that, but that's an interesting thought exercise. out totally, and the $200 million you spend in a race. is much less valuable than the $20 million or the $2 million, right? I mean, I mean, leaving the holding constant, so to speak, the size of the states, you know, you're just your marginal return from the 5,000th time you show an ad is just going to be less. The theme of the Democrats is their comment as their socialists, their radicals, but it doesn't quite yet, especially in a midterm that ultimately is a referendum on Trump. That's the main thing to be said. Obviously, Trump's numbers remain the driving force, but I think the secondary, but not on important forces, the failure to be able to demonize the Dems. And I, what do you think? Do you think anything is really sticking at this point? I'm a little bit obviously, but not much, right? Remember all the Fox and wish-casting after Maldonnie, one in New York, and then after SAE, it was nominated in Michigan. That's the face of the Democratic Party. It's going to be easy to turn all these other guys into those people. Not so much. I mean, I haven't even turned, else I even tell, say, eat actually since you said that. Right. Exactly. And Michigan. But I was going to say, his numbers are a little soft. I compared to the rest of that, but I think I'll say it's going to win handily, but his numbers are a little softer than kind of his peers in these Senate races. But that's really the only evidence of anything. And I saw some, you know, discussion kind of on background and some of the Beltway Rags, some of the weekend from Republican strategy, just basically admitting that like the Elsaid Piker 9/11 stuff just isn't working at all. And like they're not seeing it working in the numbers, which isn't surprising to me. 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And when Quince asks where you heard about them, let them know that it was the bulwark daily. That's the best way to support our show. I want to go to our sleeper races. We said we're going to do this once a week. Last week, as mentioned, Bill Crystal had the Idaho Senate race and he just went way deep for the deep cuts. I was a little more modest. I was choosing a race that was in the likely Republican and the Cook rankings rather than the three deepest red states in the country. But we like Bill Crystal's boldness. Before you do this week, I want to mention, you flag this for me this morning, Bill. The race that I mentioned, Jessica Killing, running Colorado Springs district in Colorado, Colorado five. She's running against Jeff Crank. I think I quasi miss spoke last week, so just as quick correction on Jeff Crank. That is his real name, Jeff Crank. Great name. Very apt name for the Republicans in the cycle. I know him because he's been around Republican politics forever in Colorado. But he's only been the rep for this district. Risoio's Doug Landborne seat. But he's a long time operative, more of a tea party type than a mega type. And Jessica Killing's campaign had a pretty brutal ad that they put up tying him to the Epstein cover. Let's watch that. My sister Virginia was one of Jeffery Epstein's victims. She spent her life trying to expose the truth. After she died, we promised to carry on her fight. But our own congressman, Jeff Crank, refused to meet with us. Then when he had the chance to expose the truth and release the Epstein files, he repeatedly voted to cover them up. Virginia deserve better. Pretty powerful. I mean, I do think that Epstein has dropped a little bit down from kind of the Democratic messaging just because Trump has stepped on so many rakes. There have been so many opportunities. But I still think that it's something that it's compelling both for swing voters, but also in a midterm, exciting year side to engage, to throw the bombs out and tamping down the other side. And you imagine if you're a Colorado mega Republican, you're like, who is this guy? Jeff Crank's not doing anything. He's covering up the Epstein files. Why am I wasting my time to go vote for him? I think that's potentially effective in that regard. I agree. Ohio, I think, Epstein's been a little more of an issue. Whereas you say there were Democrats ahead by four points for governor and three points for Senate. And it's because one of the main Republican donors in Ohio, that's why Exeter turns out to been a very close associate of Epstein and the big donors to the Republican Party there. Yeah, I think I said this in the day, but I was talking to the governor and pulled us a while back, and his big bold Bill Crystal style prediction was that Democrats could win all eight districts in Colorado and have an eight-o house delegation. I've thrown at the bobert seat and the Jeff Crank seat as the two or the ones that I recommended people contribute to. I think are potentially getable. The Crank seat is the most getable. Then you have heard out there in Western Colorado. And then I think it's the feedback from Bill that I didn't mention the car to eighth district, which is Manny Routinol, Handsome Manny. I talked about him with Jesse Leire, I'm a podcast couple weeks ago. The reason I didn't mention him is just because that is a northern Denver suburbs, basically, up to four Collins and Handsome Manny is kind of a lefty type candidate. And I just I think that in the suburbs, like the Democrats are going to sweep this year. So I've been trying to focus on more red districts and identifying good candidates running in red districts rather than more left candidates running in purple districts. But if that's your cup of tea, that's Colorado eighth district is also one that Democrats are going to need to win. All right, let's go to your pick for this week. Bill, unless you get something on that. No, I don't. And last week I was focused. I've been focused the last few weeks on the Midwest Iowa Great Plane States, Kansas, Nebraska, maybe South Dakota, and then Rocky Mountain Idaho, the reach the reach state of those. But I think there's a lot going on out there with and special issues that are hurting Trump out there. Tara is most obviously also the war at diesel fuel and so on. Now, okay, I want to go south this week. These are less extreme. These are more to miller-esque predictions. It's kind of plausible, but a little bit of a reach. I mean, let's what about Florida and South Carolina for the center races? I've been I mean, dubious about the south is the toughest to crack because the white working class voters are deserving Trump. No question. If you look at some of these the internals and the polls, including the times Santa Poles, which really are worth looking at the at the cross tabs. But the white working class up in the north and the Midwest tends to be less evangelical. So the evangelical white working class is the toughest nut to crack. There are a lot of them and really a lot of them in the deep south, obviously, but it's quite a few in Florida and South Carolina. But a, the polling shows those races pretty close. Anchidics and basically tied, I think, in Florida. Andy Andrews behind a few points, Lindsey Graham's sister in South Carolina. Florida, I don't know. People just decided it's impossible because the Santa's went so big. It was a one one and a half points state in 2018. The last time there was a midterm for Trump. Trump wanted by 13 points, 13 point one in 2024, which is less, it was same as he won Alaska by. It's a little less than he won Iowa in Texas by. So if Iowa in Texas or in play, why shouldn't Florida be in play? That's my, my attitude there against the undistinguished incumbent. I think it's safe to say. Anchidics and at a pretty good gubernatorial candidate, David Shaw, I use funding pretty well against the bad Republican Democratic candidate. So I'm sort of bullish on Florida, big state, expensive state. South Carolina, somewhat smaller state, seems a little crazier on the other hand. That was a 17, like 18 points state for Trump in 2024. People kind of have the image of South Carolina as being like I don't. That's not quite right. 18 points is a lot, but you know, it's four points more than the states that Trump Republicans are now in danger of losing. These little more of a swing. I looked it up though in 2020, that famous race where Lindsey Graham crushed Jamie Harrison after the Democrats spent $100 billion there. Maybe not the best expenditure in 2020. That was a 10 point race. I don't know. Is it unreasonable to think that any Andrews could run 10 points better against Lindsey Graham's sister in the off-year election, the midterm election of 2026 when Trump is at 35 percent naturally. He's probably under water as South Carolina, actually. It's not unreasonable to think that South Carolina is very much in place. So Florida and South Carolina for the Senate. Okay. I look twice bit. Well, I'm only once bit, but Democrats are twice bit on South Carolina. I predicted Hillary to win South Carolina 2016 on TV. So I'm trying not to go down that path again. And then you mentioned the Jamie Harrison debacle. It's tough. I like both of the candidates. I think full work listeners are probably me hearing from both of them soon, and we're going to be in Columbia. I think there are literally two tickets left for the Columbia South Carolina event. So go get it right now at the block.com/events, if you want to come hang out, and we'll talk about the Indianers race there with the locals. And like Angie Nixon is such a Spitfire. I like her. She is running what I would say is the model race for somebody that comes from the left flank. The problems as we kind of discuss the DSA type candidates, going forward is that in Democratic primaries, DSA was very invoked this past primary season. We'll be next one. I don't know. We'll see that it's still seen as a little bit of like baggage kind of in the general election. It's kind of weird. Even pro DSA people. I've seen some of them be like, don't call our candidate socialist, and it's like, well, you join the DSA. I know. It's a little bit of a mixed bag. So she is one of these that's kind of, I think it was like a normal, liberal, progressive candidate comes a DSA member to get a little boost in primary, but she's running. I just think a very sharp race that dispenses with all of the baggage that some of the other candidates from that kind of faction have struggled with navigating some of the tougher questions on that stuff. So anyway, I think she's a strong candidate. Florida's tough. I think that what we might end up learning is that Florida is now the base of the Republican party, not Texas. If it does, turn out the David Jolly, because I look, because my point is David Jolly and Angie Dickson, I think are running good races. So if it turns out that they still lose by big numbers until Arrico wins, it just might say more about I think the demographics of Florida, Tampa or Lando, Jacksonville, like these, these are demographically different places than Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio. That's my main caution of Florida is I just, I kind of think that the suburban or Lando people are meaningfully different than the suburban Dallas people, at least from the voting kind of standpoint. We'll see. Yeah. And I agree with that. And the people who put someone put it to me the other day is the, the Afro-Mital class or wealthy people who move to Florida, whom there are a lot are different from the Afro-Mital class people who move to Austin, Texas, right, or even maybe to Houston, Dallas, suburbs and stuff. Yes. That's a little better for the Republicans. And I mean, Trump benefited hugely in 2020 and Republicans did subsequently with the swing in the Latino vote, obviously in Florida. Yeah. I do wonder about that now. I mean, with obviously immigration stuff. We know for sure the bottom has fallen out in Texas, and we're seeing this. I mentioned the Bobby Polito race last week and that kind of had Tana seen her. He's running like 30 points better than Trump was running in his district. Again, the Hispanics are different to them. Like, is that is that happening in the Cuban community than his whale and we'll find out? I think they're both good to flag. And the Andersen, Angie Nexon, my pick is for this week is Zach Dembo running in Kentucky 6. I was at a wedding this weekend. Kentucky, that's good to you. Thank you. You decided I was being, you know, you didn't want me to be outflanking you here. Yeah. I didn't want to get pulled by Belchristall on the predictions. I was in Lexington this weekend. I went to Keyland about my friends to shout out Thomas and JT. They got married. Congratulations. And I went to Keyland. And there were some more people of Keyland. Let's just say this. I was recognized more at Keyland than I am at LSU games. So I think there's a meaningfully difference between Lexington and Baton Rouge, just anecdotally, as far as the demo there. The district is seven points more Republican than national. So I think that that means it's less Republican than South Carolina. So it's still a little bit more reasonable than what you have thrown out there. The unit exact demo is Lexington native Navy Jag Officer Prosecutor was teacher in Mississippi. So it just has a great bio, long time Lexington family. He's running his Ralph Alvarado, who is from California, moved to Kentucky, was on the Matt Bevin ticket as the lieutenant governor, lost to Andy Bashir. So he's a loser. Then he moved to Tennessee, moved back to Kentucky to run again. He was investing in some Medicare fraud scheme happening in legislature there. He was wrapped up in Matt investigation, he's ma-ha, little wishy-washy on the vaccine stuff. I don't know, Lexington, Kentucky, some of the capital, college town, it's a little bit of a stretch. But the Democrats have a stronger candidate and it's not crazy to think that that would be potentially gettable. So there we go. And I'm throwing Kentucky six under the map. >> I mean, I slightly ridiculed, not ridiculed, but slightly raised a, it's like an eyebrow by Kentucky. But of course that was stupid to me because Kentucky is elected a Democratic governor twice in a row. Andy Bashir probably won that congressional district, it's probably going to be a portion if they'd usually do the math for you on this, it's probably won that district by a bunch of points, right? I mean, you won the state. So that district is obviously where Democratic, the most of the state. So it's not like they've never voted for a Democrat in Kentucky six, you know? It's, I think that's a good pick. I'm with you. >> Thank you. >> I'm with you on that one. >> Thank you, Bill. >> Yeah, I'm an over-researcher, particularly when it comes to hotels and travel stuff. I want it to be good. I get disappointed in myself if we get a little getaway and then turn out that the plan is exactly right. Like I'm not really anal about most of that, that's something that I'm anal about. I'm sure that you all, you have something that you're like that about and there are other issues though, where you just, you just want somebody to make it as easy for you as possible. You don't want to be the one doing all the research. And that is certainly the case for me when it comes to life insurance. Like quote is life insurance broker that does the homework for you. The license agent shop over 100 policies and finds you a better rate for free with like quote giving life insurance is fast free and easy. The whole process takes about 15 minutes to answer a few questions or agents, shop the carriers for you and you get your quote tailored to your specific situation, even if you've got something like high blood pressure or diabetes. Like quote has been doing this for over 40 years. The reviewers are rave and you can just add me to that pile, shopping for the quotes are so easy. 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I don't know how quite how antagonistic he was, but there's a 60 minute segment on them last night that one of my friends texted, we almost caused him to stroke out and so I decided to tune into that as well, get my blood pressure going last night, I want to play a little bit for that. Around here, if you're in motion, you're generally ahead and if you're not, then you're behind. Keeping up with Tom Tillis on Capitol Hill is not for the faint of heart. He knows the U.S. Capitol inside out the passageways, staircases, the Capitol subway system. The president called Tillis a talker and complainer, not a doer. I respect the president, I still feel like we have an odd relationship where I've clearly made him angry, but it took years before even made the first negative comment about me, but I react to anybody on this earth the same way if you come at me with what I think is unfair or incorrect data, I'm going to come back after you. So there's that clip, I don't know if that's really right, I mean, has he come back after Trump, did he go back right after him? It doesn't really see, it feels like he thinks he's attacking Trump more than he actually is. Yeah, no kidding. I mean, oh god, I've glad I didn't know about this. Well, unlike you, I wouldn't have felt obliged to actually tune in, I wouldn't. And so my memory of last night will be the excellent, fantastic walkie-brewers walkoff hit, winning the game against the Padres in San Diego and Milwaukee, actually with the crowd going wild. As opposed to, was Ross Delfat the host or interviewer? Well, they've taken on Trump, maybe you're not aware of, not like you, they were just TDS ties, but those guys have had the muted, sophisticated analysis of Trump, it's really done a lot of damage to Trump, it really helped save the country from him. Tom Till, look at almost courageous folks, Tom Till has cast and said it. Yeah, the one against the tax bill, when they still had the votes anyway, he probably would have 35 would have folded if they, if they didn't have the votes anyway. So it's just two guys telling each other, great job about their modest criticism of Donald Trump over the past fucking 10 years. My main reaction to that is I'm taking people behind the curtain a little bit. I've invited Tom Till's on the show, probably a dozen times, and it's fair, I would understand why Tom Till's might not want to come on the show because as we just demonstrate it, neither of us are particularly impressed with him, but I will say this, I have definitely come for him and I've come for Tom Till as many, many times, the person who confirmed Trump's entire ridiculous clown cabinet and I was confused and didn't think that the Attorney General or the Trump himself would part in all the January 6th rioters, I don't tell us, it doesn't seem to be a one. where what is happening around him, because he just fully goes on board with everything that Trump wants, and then at the end is like, well, I mean, I mean, we only know that this was gonna go bad. It's like, well, yeah, we all knew, Tom. We all knew you've been a total coward in a weakling, and you think that you're a tough guy, and I'm just gonna say, if somebody comes for you, you come back for them, invite's open, baby. Invites open, come on anytime, we can hang out. I'll fly to North Carolina, you can come on the show anytime. So tough, such a fighter of anybody that criticized you, you'll have nothing at time in your hands next year because you quit, the Senate, rather than trying to actually take on Trump, you could have stayed in the race, could have tried to take on Michael Wattley, and Roy Cooper, but you didn't do it, you quit. 'Cause you're scared of Trump, and so, I don't know, maybe you're scared of me too, we'll see. One other Tom, tell us a clip, I do have to play though, now that my damage is up, let's turn to that. - Hold him responsible for the struggle in the Iran war. 'Cause you've said that you supported the initial decision to go to Iran. - You know, I think that they got so caught up after the immense success of the first strike, that Hegseth probably didn't listen to his best military advice and say, now we should probably move to a different posture. - He's calling for Hegseth to resign. - You know, I'd like to think that most of the time, the president would be surrounded with people who would finally say, Mr. President, if you do that, I'm walking out this door. There's a Russian expression, if only the Tsar knew, which means people don't wanna blame the Tsar when bad things happen, they wanna blame his advisors. But in this case, with Trump, it's on him, right, in the end. Whoever he has around him, well, he's the Tsar. - Truman famously said that the buck stops here. - Get that. - It's a good line. - I get that, but Truman had great advisors. - What? - It's Trump, it's Trump. - Yeah, Hegseth's a fucking buffoon and you can turn to run the Secretary of War. It'd be the Secretary of War, I guess true. But like, Trump is on board for everything. Like this whole good, sorry bad boy are thing. He's got going still even when he's not running for Senate again. Like, what is the wake up? - It's fantastic that Tilla's raises, I guess, the famous Truman, the buck stops here thing, which makes the point, therefore, that, and now, like, asleep, the buck stops the Trump. Someone must have told him that once, as like a bit of a rebuke, and he is now figured out his answer to that, which is, well, but Truman actually had good advisors. So the buck didn't stop the Truman. So Truman was, I mean, what? - Who picked Trump's advisor? Who picked the advisors? Who confirmed the advisors? Like, Trump did, you did, a Jew and Trump. Tom Tillerson, Donald Trump, you guys did this. And then Tilla's like, I supported the war at the start. Like, why? If you thought that Hegseth was so bad, why would you support us, like, starting a war of choice with Iran? What, what was the different tack? - Ross didn't ask that follow-up question. What was the different tack you wanted them to take? I'd go on to the war start. He was like, we were so successful the first couple of days. It's like, welcome to any war. Like, there's so many cliches about that. Like, yeah, you know, anything, you know, let's see, let's see, old line about how, like, everybody has a plan till we get punched in the face, the Mike Tyson line. It's like, that's true about anyway, sure. He had a good congrats on the first two days. But like, the whole fundamental problem was that there was no strategy for securing that success beyond it. - I mean, I can't keep track of these, the handful of these cowardly Republican senators and exactly which ones they've pretended to vote again. Which Trump policies or nominees, they've very rarely voted against, almost always when it wouldn't make a difference. But to tell us, to tell us to not vote against Blanche, right? I believe. - No, tell us what's the one, tell us in Cassidy where the whole show, like how they're concerned. - I know, Kornin was in there too. - Yeah, yeah, so right. And then Tillis deferred to Kornin and Cass, as some of us, he was entry to share. I can't remember anymore. Yeah, it was absolutely. So this was like recent, right? Blanche thing was after all Tillis had learned all these horrible things about how important Trump's advisors were, the cabinet, right? That's the thing you really, and everything, Blanche had been there running justice, basically under pan-bonding, then running it as acting as general for several months. And Tillis went along. - It's a great point, 'cause it's like, okay, even if you take Tillis's view of the world, which is that Trump won, and we wanted to be supportive, and I trusted Mr. Trump. The economy was good back the first time, and so I wanna give him a chance. Okay, the Blanche nomination vote was last month. That was like five weeks ago. You got to see a year and a half of how things were going. And you still voted to confirm Blanche. I thought he was the one that moved Maxwell, and we all know the whole thing. It's, come on the show, Tom, it'll be fun. See this would be great content. We'd love to have you, and you told the nation last night that you'll come after anybody that comes after you. So, here we are. Always available for you, a big guy. Hey, have you ever hit one of those? This content isn't available in your region walls, and you get really annoyed with proton VPN. It's easy to change your virtual location, so you can access the sites and contents you need. No matter where you are, it's something that I ran into when we were at our live event in Toronto last year. I miss you guys in Toronto. We got to go back to Canada in 2027. I think it's trying to watch LSU against all of this. We ended up losing, so I don't know. I guess the proton VPN would have been more, would have sparked more joy if LSU had won. But still, I was nice to have a chance. It was nice to feel like I had a chance. And I was able to, thanks to our friends at proton VPN. It's a secure VPN service design for people who want to prioritize their digital privacy and security. It keeps what you do online private and lets you access the internet like it should work, open secure and on your terms. 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And then there's another escalation. Like we, in addition to the energy shock that we're going through, we could be staring down the barrel, a major global food crisis disaster for the global floor, but even for here in America, you know, more increased grocery costs. - And geopolitically, it's Saudi. Houthi war, Houthi war has heated up that those Houthis, Higgseth crushed back and over a year ago and was prancing around talking about how devastating those military strikes had been. And even the idiotic talking point, 90% idiotic talk quite well, but the straight has been opened up sort of, there are more ships going through, actually it's sort of closed down again over the last few days. But anyway, the reason it opened up is people worked out very complicated workarounds, which is good, the market does do that. And it's doing that at $100 barrel for oil, because so we're living these gas prices are what they are, you know, 30% high. And so all this idiotic kind of, you know, pro-Trump, you know, Trump adjacent talking point by the seven remaining Iran hawks who want to be defending Trump's policies there is ludicrous, right? I mean, and totally ludicrous. JV all right about this last week. And by the way, because it's Iran war hawks, I don't, you don't engage much in the discourse as some others and I admire you for that bill. But I will say, there's some discourse out there on the internet that some people may have seen about how us, you, me, Sarah, JVL, are all like really excited to bring back the Neocon war hawk leadership to the Democratic Party. And I just want to say to do any of those people that are offering that critique or watch the show, it doesn't seem like it. And multiple times a week, I continue to, like, rip Democratic establishment for not being harder against the war. I continue to think that the Democrats should have a more clear, consistent, visible anti-war posture with the Iran war. And from the minute this stupid war started, we were like, this is idiotic when there were a lot of Democrats, including some in Congress that were like voting for, continuing to fund the war and we're being cautious and saying, well, I don't, you know, the eye toll is bad. Like, yeah, the eye toll is bad, but this is obviously a strategically stupid war and we have two idiots running it. And they have no plan. And the Democrats should try to recapture some of the, like, anti-war mantle that Trump took with his lies in the 2024 campaign. Like, that's my view on all this. And I don't know, it's a little confusing that I think people are misinterpreting on it. Is it your fault? I guess what I'm saying, Bill, is I think it's your fault? It's your fault. - Yeah, it is my fault. Also, it's very confusing that you and I, and I think moments that front of the bullwork are very hawkish on Ukraine. If you want to call that very bleached strongly, it should be defended. We could have done war on the Biden. And it certainly should be doing much more to help them now and to oppose Putin. But that's like, if people's heads explode, if you're against the dictator invading a neighbor, which was the case with the Democratic neighbor, and you think you should help it and help our allies in Europe help it, and that you're deeply skeptical [BLANK_AUDIO] but a unilateral, unnecessary attack on Iran. I have to assume that that is. It's like that's too complicated for people like us to be hawkish on Ukraine and against the Iran War. - I mean, it's obvious, I don't know why it's complicated because there are the two obvious positions to take for anybody with eyes and experience and understanding of what the likely outcome was gonna be in Iran and what is really happening in Russia and what Putin's plans are. But anyway, whatever, there we go. That's my discourse take. We've been clamoring for that. Another paperwork thing you should be working on if you forget to my age or older. It's something that it's intimidating, you know? You're like, do I really wanna do this? Do I really wanna contemplate the specter of death? You don't, but you know that you should. And so you wanna make it as easy and simple as possible. And that is creating a will. And you can do that in a jiff, in a flash with our friends at Trust and Will. Trust and Will offers affordable attorney design to state plans online that you can create in minutes. You know, I don't like doing this. I don't like taking the time for it, but I popped on there and I was like, oh shit. Trust and Will, this is fast, it's easy. I can feel secure, can feel like, you know, I know if something goes bad, I haven't screwed over. My loved ones, I felt validating at the end. And so you should do it too. It's easy to use, it's fast. If you need expert input, attorney support is available as an add-on to your plan. 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I think I'll have to create a massive, we might just have to create a bulwark molecule without the sex part, like where we get a big warm, big warm, somewhere in Louisiana or Florida, like a ranch, and everybody lives together 'cause I cannot be alone in my house again. Okay, I'm just saying that. That is my plan, if we have another pandemic, we're gonna have to create a community with alcohol. But the story here for anybody who's been trying to keep their ostrich on it. I can't get over it. I can't get over the bulwark molecule. No, not sexual bulwark molecule. No, even not sexually, it'll be very, yeah, I think maybe down in South Korea, I'm thinking of volunteering our somewhat modest, pleasant backyard here in Georgia, Virginia. Okay, wait, we can have two. You know, we can have two right now. That's true. And I guess the private plane that moves people. The bulwark plane could fly us back before it, no problem. Yeah. We're gonna need some more subscribers for that. So go to the bulwark.com/subscribe. If you want to support the potential need for a private jet, if we have another pandemic, here we go. A 28 year old female laboratory technician at the Erkstukz, you know how to say that one? Erkutsk, Erkutsk, I think it was in risk. Wasn't Erkutsk in risk? I'm pretty sure it was one of the things you can control in risk. Okay. Anyway, at the Erkutsk research anti-plague institute in Siberia, a 28 year old female laboratory technician died after being diagnosed with pneumonia of unknown origin, a test tube broke at the anti-plague institute. So that's not great. Ashi Shia, you had on several times a bulwark on Sunday. Very good. It was an advisor on COVID to Biden said, this is the situation he's worried about for a long time. He said it's the most likely scenario, something bad happening. Not that a country with a weapons program decides to use it, but that there's an accidental release from a deliberate program. He's saying the base quid, if you look at various pieces of evidence, what we know about this, this was a deliberate program that Russia was developing out in Siberia. Hopefully the Siberians stay there. And so this blows over, so to speak, but I don't know. It's concerning. As I understand it, my knowledge of this subject is very limited to epidemiology or whatever the right subject matter is, it's very limited. I guess it's so fatal that you just get it and die. So it doesn't spread the way people can get on, spread something like COVID, right? That's also kind of worrisome if it's like matter. That was not reassured to read about how fatal this particular biological weapon is or whatever. So yeah, especially given that Putin is doing more trouble making in Europe, more drones, I mean, more attacks, it's concerning, it's concerning. Luckily, we have the best people in charge. I'm sure very vigilant in monitoring all of this and all of our actual Russia experts and all of our actual epidemiology experts have been running out of a government. So that kind of adds to my concern. One other note of bad news over the weekend, well, we're doing that is down in Brazil. Looks like a full political comeback in revenge for the Bolsonaro family. I'm still in this green wall, his living down there. But one of his sons, Flavio, who's currently a senator is headed to a runoff for president, he finished first place in the first round against Lula, socialist current president of Brazil. So Flavio and Lula had to run off. Meanwhile, Jair Bolsonaro's wife, Michelle, was elected to the Senate. One of his other sons, Carlos, was elected to the Senate. Another son, Renan, was elected to Congress. And then his other son, Eduardo, who's kind of like a MAGA podcaster now, he's in the U.S. because he's facing imprisonment if he returns. And we're obviously the Trump regime is protecting him. Here, he's giving safe haven to a right-wing criminal. Here in this country, and Jair himself is at prison at home, is in a home imprisonment. But I assume if his son wins, that will end. I think it's worth mentioning, obviously, there's some differences between Brazil and us, but the parallels between the Bolsonaro family come back and the worst-case scenario laid out by a JVL about Trump family reemergence. I don't know, while we're catastrophizing about the Russian deadly plague, one of my big things that I'm concerned about is a victory for us in 2029, followed by a massive recession, followed by the reemergence of the family. And you're seeing a little bit of that in Brazil. I'm getting a little bit of 2024 flashback vibes, right? Obviously, Trump should come back after 2020 and 2021. And also, isn't Lula like 80 years old? It is like running against the end of the incumbent. So maybe he could have stepped aside sort of like President Biden there. I don't know enough about Brazilian politics to know if there would have been a good successor. If it's somewhat, maybe they didn't want to vote for it. If I didn't hurt it. Yeah, they had a big advantage in that respect, too. Brazil's 80-year-old Lula hits the treadmill so ease voter concerns about his age. Yeah, why does that not give one? Why does that not give one great confidence in that campaign? Fewer podiums in interviews, more lunges and squats. This is from a salpalo AP article. Oh boy, it's been quite a show. Do you have anything positive that you just went to fill? I don't have anything else on my notes here for the weekend. No, the way I've been. I'd never been to Lexington or to Kingland and it was lovely. And it is tough to reemerge to kind of this rundown. I guess we have our hope here. Actually, blue in Lexington isn't that the thing? Very early. I don't-- You agree that that's a famous Lexington thing, though, isn't it? It is, yeah. It's the bluegrass airport. Yeah. I'm not sure. I'm not a scientist. So I don't know anything about the Arctic tuxk plague or about why the grass isn't blue, but it was still beautiful. And you know, good spirits, good bourbon. And I'm going to need the bourbon. I think it turns out, depending on what else is happening in the news. All right, I'm off to New Hampshire after this. We'll see everybody at Dartmouth on Tuesday night. And tomorrow, we've got-- we got somebody I really like coming back to the show. So I'm looking forward to that. So see you all tomorrow, Bill. Appreciate you. Thanks. I appreciate it. Catch you next week. [MUSIC PLAYING] (SINGING) Don't you give me-- [MUSIC PLAYING] In the way you can't make it all right. [MUSIC PLAYING] I was here in the world to the world that you gave me time. [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] You can say it's your honor. It's like I'm going to bed on a street. [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] Why then here, when we both going to flake it? [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] The Bullwork Daily is brought to you thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper, Associate Producer Anzali Skipper, and with video editing by Dante DeCicco and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.