Bill Kristol and JVL: Trump Could Be More Dangerous Post-Election

Hey, it's Mario Lopez from the All Mario Lopez Daily Podcast. All right. Quick question. You ever notice how some cars just steal the spotlight? Well, that's the 2026 Toyota RAV4. It's got bold standout style, intuitive tech inside, and now hybrid power standard, which means efficiency without the need to plug in. So whether you care about looks, smarts, or just everyday practicality, RAV4 brings all of it. If you've been holding out for the right SUV, this is your sign. Check out the 2026 Toyota RAV4 at your local Toyota dealer or visit toyota.com. See packages and options at toyota.com for future availability. This is Matt Rogers from Lost Culture East. That's with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang. This is Bowen Yang from Lost Culture East. We've been talking about Kewpie Mayo for a minute now, and wow, so many of you already love this stuff. And if you're thinking, wait, what is Kewpie? Do you not have the internet? It's the OG Japanese mayonnaise. The one with the red. The one with the red cap. What makes it different? Egg yolks. Kewpie is made with egg yolks only, giving it this rich umami flavor that elevates everything. Chefs use it. Restaurants use it. Where chefs work, of course. Food and flavor lovers use it. You haven't tried it yet? Well, find the red cap and see what everyone's talking about, why don't ya? Kewpie. The original Japanese mayonnaise. Kewpie. Gras shirt out of season. That is almost always unacceptable. But on election eve, we make the exception because of James Carville wearing the Mardi Gras shirt on election eve in the Bill Clinton documentary, where he gives the great speech about, you know, about the most important thing that you can give in your life besides love to your family is your labor. And it's a wonderful speech. I'll put the link in the show notes. It's two minutes, it'll get you if you want to get a little teary on election eve, you can watch James Carville. And so I'm wearing this in tribute to him. I also want to shout out on Saturday night, I was at the widespread panic concert. And I did notice a little something about the set list. My guys, you know, begins the second set with we're not going to take it ends with sympathy for the devil. Second set ends with a song because my principles are reaching an all time low. There are a lot of a lot of I don't think that subtle messages about the midterms to the fans there. So shout out to my guys. schools and all those guys. It was a great weekend. All right, Bill, before we get to prognostications, I want to talk about one like kind of news item quasi perspective news item, which is what's going on with the Iran war. I feel like this is like unprecedented uncertainty before a midterm. And I guess I sort of went back this morning and tried to remember this because in 06 Bush hadn't like announced the surge was going to happen, I guess and did wait until after the midterms to announce the surge is going to happen. So I guess there's a kind of relationship there. But like we're in this war. People knew that that was a possibility. There was like discussions of that happening. And that was more of kind of a tactical question about like how they're going to act. I couldn't think about me like in the olden days, but I couldn't like think about any other like really similar situation to this where and this is like on steroids very extreme from what happened in 06. We're like they're running this midterm, the Republicans are. And it's like a total conflict of will they or won't they in the Iran war. I mean, like we might just try to cut a deal and tuck tail. We might nuke them or anywhere in between. Right. And it's a very strange thing to do in the lead up to election. I feel like it's been a little bit kind of underappreciated and under covered like this massive issue that has totally destabilized the world and caused all these economic pains at home. Like it's still really, you know, there's not a clear view of how that they want to act after the midterms and the Republicans running. I basically tried to hide the ball on it through the whole campaign. Yeah, that's interesting. I hadn't really thought so much about the 2006 analogy. I mean, there was a big debate and I was part of this actually about whether Bush should get rid of Rumsfeld and go to the surge and bring in Petraeus and all that or not. But no one thought Bush was going to give up. Now, the Democratic Congress could try to make him withdraw. Sure. But he was pretty steadfast in what he thought he had to do. So I don't think there's a big mystery. I mean, Bush paid a price in 2006 for being having done the Iraq war and sticking with it. But in 1990, when I was in the White House, we deployed all those troops to Saudi Arabia. Bush had said George H.W. Bush had said Saddam's invasion would not stand. And we were going to go to Congress. I think we had said we were going to Congress to get authorization, which we did after the December and January, maybe both from the new Congress in January. But anyway, and there was a bipartisan vote and all that Democratic Congress. So, yeah, you're right. I mean, nothing. No one was hiding the ball. I think it's fair to say on this fundamental question, whereas there's been no clarity at all from Trump. Occasionally talk about using force after and going big and decimating Iran or whatever after Election Day, but also talk about negotiations. And as you say, it's not as if any Republican candidates have had any interest in clarifying this either. So I want to just talk about the two items that were flagged over the weekend about what might be the possibilities after the midterms. This was Chris Murphy late last week. And we should say Chris Murphy had a stroke over the weekend. And so just sending nothing but love to him and his family. I think he was watching his kids. It's some sort of sport hockey. Yeah, I could watch his kids hockey game and he had a stroke. And I got to Chris Murphy. I have got a chance to spend a little bit of time with and he's a really, you know, good person. And, you know, people have disagreements or whatever about various policy views that people have. But like, he's trying to do the right thing. And was just really upfront on the gun rights issue. And then my former co-host Cam said that, like, he would meet with a gun rights activist or a student anytime anybody asked. And it was genuine, genuine care about this. So hopefully his recovery is on path. And I guess the reports are that they do think he'll be able to make a full recovery. But this was before the stroke, though, last week. And I didn't cover it last week. And that was a mess by me. So I do want to cover it today. Let's watch. In one of these briefings, we did get the chance to have a fairly detailed conversation about what the war plan would be if we restarted military operations. You've heard a preview that it would be a short duration plan. I will just say this. Their plan is insane. It won't, it won't, it will lead to devastating escalation and the likely, you know, destruction of our commitment to the rule of law. Can you say more? I mean, there's been open reporting as to, you know, what we may be planning and the civilian infrastructure that we may be targeting. I think the plan, the plan that they have, they have certainly been asked by the president to develop a plan, whether they believe it, it will work or not. I do not know. But the plan that they have developed will lead, in my view, to a prolongment and an escalation of this war that will be devastating for our security interests. I think at minimum, that shows that, like, there's very serious consideration happening to a big escalation. Yeah, a war that has never been authorized by Congress, that funds that haven't even been appropriated by Congress for. I mean, I do think this would be the first item of business after the election, after one day of celebrating the Democrats don't, won't control Congress for another two months, but they will have some moments. from that victory, I think, and some moral standing, and maybe a few other Republicans would desert. And they need to try to stop this. I mean, you can't just sit there and let him do stuff that, as Chris Murphy says, is war crimes and really a dangerous escalation. The other thing, we had a very spirited conversation about this on the Bulwark Slack this morning. So taking people behind the scenes here, Tucker Carlson yesterday posted this on social media under pressure from Bibi. The Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickaxe Mountain, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate the solid granite to destroy the tunnels where this is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. Bibi calls Trump about it every day, says an informed observer. Now, Tucker Carlson is a fabulist and has been making shit up for quite a while now. And also, people within the administration call Tucker Carlson. So, you know, I take this with an enormous grain of salt, but I've long feared that, you know, Trump cares about legacies. in memory and that like being the person to drop a bomb is something that could stick in his lizard brain. And I don't think that's a 0% chance. I think that there's something potentially to that. There's a lot of folks, you, Hertling, some others, you know, who raised all the reasons that he would, even if he's considering this, not actually go through with it. But anyway, we can speak about that a little bit. Or would people obey the order to use nuclear weapons when there's no emergency need to do so, when there's been no use against us, when there's no, when this is stuff that's buried in a mountain, maybe they're doing stuff in that mountain. We can seal the entrances with conventional weapons. There are a million things we can do with conventional weapons to break an 80-year taboo of the use of nuclear weapons against an enemy, except for, you know, in any way other than testing. It would be unbelievable. I think there would be mass resignations. I don't think people should obey that order. And there would be a genuine crisis. I think he would have to be impeached. And I hopefully, convicted if he did that. I mean, unless there's something we don't know, and there's some unbelievable emergency, obviously. But even then, it's almost inconceivable, and I defer to Mark Hertling on this, obviously, and other experts. It's almost inconceivable that there's an actual military need for it. It would be him thinking, I don't know what thinking, it would be the craziness taken to another level. And it really shouldn't be something that we tolerate. I kind of assume Tucker's exaggerating and sort of doesn't want a strike of any kind, which is, I happen to agree with him, or he agrees with me. Better on that. But at this point, a massive strike of any kind. He agrees with Chris Murphy, but he's maybe just dramatizing it by saying nuclear weapons. But I agree, there's not a zero percent chance that Trump will try to use nuclear weapons, do you think, either in the next week or two, or the next two years? Of course not. I just, I do keep coming back to the Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman scene, where they're in the Oval Office, their one interview, and Trump like brings them the list of people throughout history that have had the most power and influence. And it's like, I don't know, I don't know what you're talking about. I don't know. I don't know what you're talking about. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. If that is where your mindset is, you have this kind of megalomania, and you're thinking of, you know, being a historic figure. Yeah, this is on the thing list of things you do. I think it relates to Greenland. I think it relates to the idea of, oh, you know, you get more land. And I think that all of that craziness is going to be bandied about this White House the next two years. Yeah, the one thing that rings false to me, or several things ring false to me, and it's a certain Tucker's thing, but that Bibi would want him to use nuclear weapons. I mean, Israel has a huge stake in the non-use of nuclear weapons for one obvious reason. Israel is a very small country, and famously, I think, didn't someone, maybe Khamenei, the former Khamenei, said that it's a one-bomb country, or Khamenei said it, someone said that from Iran. I mean, Israel has nuclear weapons. It's a deterrent, but they have a big interest in not having exchanges of nuclear weapons. So I kind of think, I don't know, I kind of doubt that Bibi would want him to use nuclear weapons. It's a deterrent, Bibi may be encouraging all kinds of irresponsible things, probably to help himself stay in power, that probably is, but not, I think, the use of nuclear weapons. But you're right. I mean, it makes you really think about these next two years. Yeah, I don't want to take Tucker's thing at face value, but I do think it's worth taking the threat seriously. And you just have a lot of data points. There was a report about them using the Moab, and there's the report of Trump talking about wiping their civilization off the earth, and Trump's threats, and he hasn't done it, but I listened to what Chris Murphy said in the video. Obviously, they're at least considering serious escalation. There are the anti-war people in the administration do leak to Tucker. It's sort of like the stuff going up to January 6th. It's like the right thing to do is to take the potential worst case scenario seriously, even though it makes you sound a little crazy sometimes in the hopes of stopping it or mitigating it somewhat. So anyway, that's my view on it. Before we get to the polls, I just want to talk briefly about concerns about election and interference. Obviously, the Alaska case is the one that is the most stark right now. There's a DOJ lawsuit over the ballot that's been thrown out by a judge. There's all kinds of conversation about not seating Mary Paltola if she wins. And to me, I think that is really the biggest threat. And it kind of depends on how close the election is really on what happens between tomorrow and January. Lauren Egan last night wrote about like some war gaming, that the pro-democracy groups are going through, looking through worst case scenarios, etc. I'll put a link to that in the notes if folks want to read that more in depth. But I'm just kind of wondering your thoughts on the threats in Alaska and then more broadly. I mean, the lawyers have done a good job, I got to say, over these last couple of weeks and winning an awful lot of district court, at least, and some appellate court opinions, and nothing has gone to the Supreme Court. So stopping various shenanigans, or at least, well, stopping them, I think it's fair to say. I mean, in Alaska, it sounds like even the state government, the Republican governor, Alaska, isn't on board this. Sullivan himself says, the real Dan Sullivan, says that he'll abide by the election returns. I've been an alarmist on election subversion. I remain worried about tomorrow, worried about what could happen the day to afternoon, very, very close counts in red states. But so far, 50 plus million people have voted pretty uneventfully, it seems. The votes seem to be sitting, being handled appropriately by state officials. Yeah, and there are various reports, various places in Texas, there are some reports about how people's registration, you know, complaints about registration issues. So, you know, there have been localized, you know, issues, but nothing on, like, a top-down scale to try to subvert what's happening in early voting. And also, I think the way Alaska, the new governor of Alaska, who looks likely to be a Democrat, will be sworn in, I think, early December, the way they work in Alaska, for some reason, they have early, you know, the rotation goes earlier than in a lot of places. So. And they don't want to make people go home. Like, once they ride the sled dogs into town, it's like a long trip back home. So you just want to let them stay. Good point. And also, the Senate controls its members. I mean, what happens to the state level in Alaska is a question. People are saying, well, the Senate wouldn't seat Peltola, but the Senate probably is going to have Chuck Schumer as majority leader, or a Democrat in any case, not John Thune. So they're going to seat Peltola. So I guess I'm pretty confident on the elections version. I think a lot of, I got to say, I've had my little quarrels with a lot of our liberal lawyer friends, I mentioned this here on this podcast, they're a little too, whatever, they've done a good job. I mean, in this respect, the kind of liberal establishment, parts of the liberal establishment have risen to the occasion, I think, and done a pretty good job in fighting back against Trump's DOJ, at least in this area. And elections, I think courts do understand, they haven't been good, in my opinion, the courts on immigration, they haven't been good on national security, there's too much deference to the executive on that. They do understand that we need to, the courts have a kind of unique role in ensuring that you do have free and fair elections. A lot of Trump judges, you know, ruled against Trump in 2020, a fair number of ruled against him this year as well. Yeah. And shout out to Mark Elias and all the others that are kind of taking point on that. And we'll, we'll be monitoring that this week. And to the extent that there are, you know, efforts, subversion efforts or shenanigans, we'll be having lawyers on to cover it. I mean, I would just say they have tilted the playing field. We shouldn't get, as you were sort of indicating this very quickly before, but just to put a one exclamation point on that. I mean, it's not like they've been, they did the redistricting, they tried to get rid of all the black members of Congress in the South, almost. Basically, they've done this moving, closing ballot boxes in place. And they've done this moving, closing ballot boxes in place. And they've done it in places that are, you know, on campuses and in minority areas in Houston and so forth. So they've done the more normal, let's say, attempts to depress the vote of the other side. But so far, the really extreme stuff hasn't happened. Yeah. A good point. And I mean, actually, the middle of the decade redistricting was not normal, but it just kind of hasn't worked to the degree that they wanted it to. All right, guys. So Bill Kristol is giving some pretty optimistic predictions about the midterms, but he's been wrong before. Let's just say, and just in case he's wrong, and just in case you want to flee to a country where English is not the primary language, it might be useful to do some prep today before the election. And you can turn to our friends at Babbel. Babbel helps you learn a new language faster than you think. People use it just 10 minutes a day, can start having real conversations in a new language in as little as three weeks. Look at that. You'll be ready by the new year. Babbel is built around real life conversation, not random vocab lists or grammar that's designed by more than 200 language experts. So what you're learning is what people actually say, not what they wrote in some textbook 30 years ago. Fits into real life, a coffee break, a commute, 10 minutes before bed. Babbel's bite science lessons work around your schedule. We do them in the period between when you order dinner and when the food comes at a restaurant. That's always a very fraught time with a child. And so that gives me until there's something to do during that period. So, you know, when she or my husband might be getting a little hangry, right? We do, we do Babbel. That's fun. So join us, do it with us. Start learning new language today with Babbel. Right now, listeners can save up to 60% off at babbel.com slash bulwark. That's babbel, B-A-B-B-E-L.com slash bulwark for up to 60% off. Rules and restrictions may apply. All right. To the, to the polls and the projections and all the fun stuff that people are excited about. New York Times, Sienna just comes out on Sunday night and injects, you know, into the anxious, you know, liberal New York Times reading mind. It's just a little jolt of cortisol, just sort of like, it's going to be okay though. I don't know. I can almost feel like now good polls have like a reversed psychological effect on a lot of liberals because they're just like, I can't, don't, I don't want to get my hopes up. It can't happen again. But anyway, I'm going to read them to you anyway. Michigan, Abdul Elsaid, 53, Mike Rogers, 42, plus 11. Texas, James Tallarico, 50, Ken Paxton, 43. Maine, Troy Jackson, 51. Collins, 45. Ohio, Sherrod Brown, 49. Houston, 44. Kansas. Adam Hamilton, 49. Roger Marshall, 44. Alaska, Paltola, 48. Sullivan, 46. That's pretty close. And Iowa, Turek, 48. Hinson, 47. Real close. Both of those last two inside the margin of error, but with the Democrat ahead in all the races, which would yield a 54 Senate majority. We should mention that the poll came with a note about waiting. This is what happens in our new era. This was not something that was happening in 06, but just like the Washington Post polls last week, Nate Cohn wrote that they kind of super duper weighted the Republicans in this poll using a bunch of different types of inputs to try to ensure that they are capturing the Republican vote accurately. In the interest of transparency, they also revealed what the poll numbers would be had they not done that. And just here, just a couple of them. Michigan plus 16. Alaska plus 6. Kansas plus 10 for the Democrat. Iowa still just plus 4. And Maine, it was kind of strange. It was like it created a reverse weighting, that it would have been plus 6 using the old system, which I think speaks to the Susan Collins kind of unique coalition that she has in Maine. So, dots in the New York Times-Siena. It's a legitimate poll. And one reason you see this legitimately is they reported the results. Some of them are a little contrary to what you might expect. Like, is Iowa just one point and Kansas is six? I mean, it's possible, of course. I mean, I've always thought Kansas was going to be easier than Iowa. But the weighting thing is just interesting in the sense that. The old weighting worked in 2018 and 22. The polls were accurate. It didn't work in 2020 and 2024. There was a hidden Trump vote. And they've sort of corrected for that. What Nate Cohen is saying is he thinks they did the right thing, but they may have overcorrected. And those bigger numbers may be accurate in this off year. And that would be consistent with a lot of what we're seeing in the early vote as well, which people love to say. Your friends don't let friends study the early vote and read the entrails. But there have been 50 plus million votes. And we know quite a lot about them. There's a lot about them, actually. It's funny how some states. I hadn't really fully realized, even till this year, I think, how much some states report about who has voted. Obviously, we don't know how they voted. We don't know how many Republicans are voting Democratic and vice versa, how the independents or the NPAs, the non-party registered, non-party affiliated are voting. But we do know who's voted. And those numbers are pretty striking in the disproportion of Democrats voting, of Latinos voting, of Blacks voting in the South, young people, even to some degree overrepresented. So it's consistent with those polls. I would just put it that way. If one or the other was off, you'd say, who the hell knows what's going on? I feel like Trump's approval, we know that's been very consistent in the polls. The Senate polls and House polls, pretty consistent with one another. And now the early voting, pretty consistent with those results. With all those going in the same direction, I feel like we're all going to still suffer from PTSD. And we're still going to be, we're still going to have, be anxious for the next 36 hours. But I think it's probably is what it looks like, which is a pretty big wave. I agree with that. A couple of things that struck me in the kind of crosstabs of the New York Times-Santa Paul, you know, the favorability numbers, I think were kind of interesting. I don't want to talk about and it highlights, you know, one place in Maine, where I do think that there is some reason to have some concern. Interestingly, Josh Turek's favorability is the highest in Iowa. And I think that's a good thing. I think that's a good thing. That was a little bit unexpected. High favorability for Abdullah Syed in Michigan, Tallarico, Hamilton, you kind of just go down the list. Troy Jackson was the only one that was underwater. Three points more unfavorable than favorable. And the only one for whom the Republican candidate had a better favorability. Collins was only one point more unfavorable than favorable. So they're both underwater, barely. I don't know. That's just one thing that you look at and makes you think, man, you know, maybe there just remains some kind of, you know, Susan Collins spell over the people of Maine. And I don't know, maybe I'm missing something about Troy Jackson. I have gotten some notes from people in Maine. It's just about, you know, concerns that they have about the Jackson campaign, about how people feel about Jackson there. So that's just one thing I did have my eye on, on the cautionary side. No, absolutely right. I mean, I do think in this year, a minus three Democrat beats a minus one Republican, if you want to think of it that way in terms of favorability with, with the wave going on in a state that's plus whatever, if it's 12 Democratic or something like that, right. At least so. But it shows, yeah, Collins is strong. Look how much better she's running than Mike Rogers in Michigan. Another thing I just think it's worth looking at in the poll and we'll see tomorrow, but I think as far as lessons learned for future cycles for the Democrats in red States, where maybe the environment isn't as favorable, they looked at the crossover voter advantage. So that's basically, basically taking, you know, if, if the Democrats, you know, is getting 10% of Republicans versus Republicans and the Republican is getting 2% of the Democrats. That's an 8% at crossover voter advantage. Hamilton and sand are way ahead of everybody else. Adam Hamilton had a plus 13 crossover voter advantage. Rob sand had a plus 12 crossover voter advantage and a tell Rico's plus six, then a bunch of people in the low single digits. And then outside was the only one who is negative at a minus one. And so I think that's, I think that's, I think that's, I think that's And, you know, we'll talk about it a little later, but I just think that Hamilton and Sand both show the degree to which, you know, kind of branding and positioning and communications really matters. You know, and I think both of them have been very disciplined about running races that sound and feel bipartisan and not by not doing it by like punching left, you know, doing sister soldier stuff, which is, you know, always, you know, what the pundits love people like Democrats to do as a way to appeal. It's been more about just kind of selling themselves as people that care about all the voters in their state and are going to care about their interests and aren't aren't. And, you know, I think that's kind of the benefit of being an auditor and, you know, having a strong brand as far as looking into corruption on both sides. Obviously, Hamilton has the benefit of being a pastor, but if it shakes out how that poll shakes out, I do think those are kind of interesting models going forward for for red states. Yeah, totally. You should also pray for opponents like Roger Marshall and and Ken Paxton. I mean, I'm not, you know, Zach Lane, Zach Lane, Zach Lane. I mean, I don't mean to name an excellent. Oh, thank you. Three of those people have run excellent campaigns, but it also never hurts to have. But then, wait, that's also a reality, right? Because why do we have those candidates? Because Trump wanted Ken Paxton. So the notion that that's an exogenous variable, that's part of what it means to have a Trump Republican Party, right? Yeah, that's true. This is Troy Millings from Earn Your Leisure. If you run a small business, you know how important it is to stay on top of your numbers. That's why I want to tell you about Xero. That's X-E-R-O. Xero is a platform built for small business owners that brings accountability. Accounting, payments, payroll, and analytics together in one place. You can access reports, visual dashboards, forecasts, and AI insights to help you better understand your cash flow and make informed decisions about your business. Learn more at Xero.com. Speaking of bad candidates and Roger Marshall helping out Adam Hamilton on that front, a weird thing happened over the weekend with him, which is the candidate personally started texting out an ad that the campaign, hadn't approved, that I guess he had a buddy tape or one strategist tape and not tell the other strategists. He really wanted to address the accusations that he had, you know, been sending former patients off to collections agencies and to local police and what amounted to essentially a medical debt prison campaign that he was orchestrating. He replied to that in this ad that is not actually going on TV. That the candidate himself sent to reporters. I want to play a little bit of it. Now, to ensure that 40,000 Kansans would still have access to care, we did have to keep the lights on. So we occasionally handed some accounts over to collection agency, just like nearly every private medical practice does. To be crystal clear, the Kansas Bill of Rights ensures that no one can go to prison because of indebtedness. And I would never wish that on any patient I had the privilege to serve. My involvement in any patient's account ended the minute it was turned over. I've never had anyone arrested, not once, and Adam Hamilton knows it. It's a minute-long ad. I just, I thought that was plenty to get the point. I mean, that is, if you're explaining, you're losing. I mean, that is unbelievable. It is. I saw that and I thought that cut maybe was a cut by Democrats who were putting this up and they were distorting the ad a little bit or something like that. But it was his own, I think, weird cut, right? Yeah, because the professionals didn't cut the ad, I guess. He had somebody else do it. It is. It is amazing. You know, it's interesting. I do think people have been asking, is the bottom falling out on the Republicans? And I think it is in some places. And in other places, I'd say the Republicans who have run normal campaigns, I think, are going to lose. Ashley Hinson in Iowa, Susan Collins in Maine. But they have run the campaign you would tell them to run, given the environment we're in, right? Be moderate, look reasonable, don't super embrace Trump, to say the least, and, you know, find any kind of thing you can use against your opponents. But don't make it a dirty campaign. Just try to make it okay. Well, Collins did get a little bit. He got a little dirty on the Troy Jackson married his cousin stuff. I guess so, I guess so. But generally, they've sort of let the non-Trumpy Republican voters feel okay about sticking with them, I'd say. And you see the split ticket in Kansas, for example, with Hinson's running so much ahead of the Republican gubernatorial candidate there. The bottom has fallen out for the Paxtons. of the world and the marshals of the world. I think Tyler, don't you think? I think Tyler Rico and Hamilton are going to win big. I mean, pretty big, you know, Hamilton really could win really big. And I struggle to believe it in Kansas. I'm going to have to believe my lion eyes. We'll get to prognostication in a second. To your point at the bottom, falling out, though, that would be a consistent story of the times, Paul, I do say, you know, and this happens like this is like in midterms. A lot of times, like the late breaking folks who are undecided break one way. And I had been worried that it was going to break the opposite way for the reason that, you know, if you talk to Democratic strategists that are working on these campaigns, the undecided voters have been Trump voters. You know, like if you are a Kamala Harris voter or if you are a non voter that has been engaged by the last two years, you you're already answering pollsters that you're voting for the Democrat. Right. And so the pool of people is like and literally I saw one poll was like 92 percent of the undecideds were Trump. And so, you know, I just been kind of skeptical that the bottom bottom was going to fall out to that degree that we've seen in other midterms for that reason, just that these would be the hardest people for them to get. But that said, like historically, that is what happens. And, you know, if The New York Times poll the weekend before shows movement towards the Democrats, I that would be consistent with what we've known about midterms past. And I do think that it's possible that's happening. I do think that explains the kind of crash. Out that we've seen from the Republicans in some of these places, most acutely, Kansas. Yeah, I think it's happening somewhat differentially. I think some states are just bad Republican performance, which will take a lot of them down. Other states bottom falling out and how that all adds up. You know, that's that's a big question that makes a big difference whether you get to, you know, 53 senators, 57 senators or something like that. But either way, I feel like Democrats win both houses, don't you think? All right. Well, let's go to the prognostications. Well, let's do that. Before we actually just let's help people out a little bit. What should they be doing on Election Day? If there it'd be best to just be busy. You know, you guys have jobs. You have families. If you don't go see a movie, you know, that Nathan Fielder movies three hours long. That could knock out most of the day for you. If you haven't seen that yet, that's one option. But, you know, if you're whatever, stuck at a laptop job and want to kind of monitor what's happening tomorrow in the afternoon, early evening, what are some things for people to watch for? What are you going to be watching for them? I'm with you on that. It'd be a binge, whatever, whatever finished crime series you haven't you haven't gotten around to watching yet or something like that. And maybe people have jobs. They just go to work and avoid going crazy. I mean, the early vote stuff is interesting if you really want to start my grant. A lot of people helping my grant all as that intelligently. I've got to say on, you know, on X and on Blue Sky and other places, Florida reports the vote as it comes in each hour by hour in the same way they report the early vote. That is, they tell you if they're Republicans or Democrats. That's our our independence. And then you still don't know how they voted. So that part you really can't get until you get the actual vote, obviously. But you can get some more sense of who's showing up. We are the look, the Republican thesis that they're going to survive in places like Florida, South Carolina, obviously Texas, Mississippi, I would say, depends a lot on Republican, a pretty big Republican advantage on Election Day, Republicans showing up to vote. And if we start seeing that that's not happening and I think Florida will be a pretty good bell. I think we'll see the weather of this Florida reports very accurately and very early, very quickly. We'll know that. The other thing I'd say on election evening, your favorite race, Kentucky 6, Kentucky closes at 6:00 p.m. as does Indiana. Kentucky 6 is what, a plus 10 or something? Trump? Yeah, I've got that here. Just really quick on Florida. Go ahead. Yeah. People don't love Jeb. You know, there's some listeners who give me shit about Jeb from time to time. That was reforms after 2000. This is fixable. And there is a huge early vote in Florida. So it is possible. I get pushback on this for people, but it's possible to have voting access, early voting and quick counting. And in a first world country, it's something that every state should be able to do. So that's just my note to California where we won't know the results of those congressional races until Thanksgiving. Moving to what you're talking about, about like the six o'clock announcements. So Kentucky 6, which is one of my long shots I talked about a few weeks ago, Zach Dembo is the Democrat, Ralph Alvarado is the Republican. That was a district Trump won by 15 in 2024. Yeah. And also closing at six is a race I don't think we've discussed really, Indiana 5, which is Victoria Sparts. She's like a very strange woman. She has a thick accent, Ukrainian, MAGA. For people who closely follow the Hill or Joe Perticoan's reporting, she's always the one that's like, I might vote against Mr. Trump on this thing. And then she always votes for him in the end. She's kind of a bipolar person. She's running against a guy named J.D. Ford. That was a Trump plus 17 district basically. Both of those close at six. They're pretty white districts. So I don't think that will tell you a lot about what happens in Texas and what happens in Georgia, whether it's going to be a huge black turnout or a huge Hispanic turnout. But as bellwethers for kind of the upper Midwest and other more homogeneous kind of white districts around the country, I think they will be bellwethers and we'll know. And I think Democrats could win either of those, but I also think that if it's like really close. So I think that's a good thing. So these, you know, these districts are a little bit more Republican than those key center races. Then seven o'clock close. You've got Florida and Virginia and South Carolina. Just if people are taking little notes, South Carolina one at seven o'clock, by the way, we'll be live. So you don't have to take notes because I'll be watching these things. We'll be live on the YouTube and Zubstack and me and Sarah and JV are going to start at seven and then pass people off. But right at seven o'clock, we got South Carolina one, which is Nancy Macy's district. The Democrats, Nancy LaCour. That was a Trump plus 13. I think that's an interesting early bellwether. And then Virginia five, which is Charlottesville and then rural Virginia. That's Tom Perriello is the Democrat. That's a Trump plus 12 district. I think that is another early indicator of the Florida districts. Maybe my guy, Bail Dalton, is one to look at. Florida 7, which is over kind of Daytona Beach, that was a Trump plus 12 district. And that might be one to look at too, to see kind of how big the wave is going to be for the Democrats. Maybe the South Florida districts also, as far as Hispanic vote, would be one to play. That Republican is Maria Elvira Salazar. She's Florida 27. She was the one that did the ad that was like, Mr. Trump, you can be the Lincoln of immigration that was a trump plus 14 district i think we know that there's going to be a huge shift among hispanics in arizona texas more of the mexican hispanic diaspora but i i think it's still kind of tbd on the cubans and you know some of those other um hispanic immigrants and so i think florida will be an interesting test of that florida 27 elliot rodriguez is a good candidate as the Democrat in that district. So Florida 27, South Carolina 1, Florida 7, Kentucky 6, Indiana 5, or 5, kind of early ones to watch. And at the statewide level, so I very much agree about Virginia. I mean, Virginia 2 should flip. Everyone expects that 2, Elaine Lurie is going to win. I think Virginia 1 is plus 5, Trump. That would be, if that's not flipping, that would be maybe a sign that it's not such a great night for the Democrats. The Democrats will still win the House, but much more narrowly. And as you say, Virginia 5 is kind of the reach district here in Virginia. If Virginia 5 goes, I think you're looking at a pretty big, very big wave. And statewide, obviously, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida are all very important. They all have a lot of early vote, which means that as they dump, they'll dump the early vote first. So we'll get a sense of if the vote was Republican, Democrat, Republican plus three, let's say, over Democrats, how did that translate into actual vote? How many of those Republicans, like you were saying before, flipped over to be Democrat versus how many voted the other way and how many of the nonpartisan, the independents voted either way? So we've got a pretty good read on, I think, where the country is in terms of the early vote. And those states count pretty fast. I think we'll know whether Annie Andrews is going to win, lose, or be in a very, very super tight race for Senate from South Carolina by 8.30 or something like that. You know, Florida counts very fast, as you said. So, yeah, I think we should know quite a lot by 8.30 or 9 p.m., you know. I think so, too. Yeah. Though Florida could be the counter wave state, you know. So I think that's that would be the one place that it's, you know, if things are looking really good for Republicans, you know, maybe a little caution before totally panicking and turning to the whiskey bottle. But with that cautionary note, I think that's a good group of races to watch. If you want a small business, you know how important it is to stay on top of your numbers. That's X-E-R-O. Xero is a platform built for small business owners that brings accounting, payments, payroll, and analytics together in one place. All right. To the predictions, Bill, where are you at? What's your, I mean, you've basically indicated it, but do you have anything in particular? Size of the house wave, Senate, surprising Senate results? You've looked at the house races so much more than I, so I just have a generic sense that they'll win, you know, 30 seats or something, but I don't have any real granularity on that. The Senate thing, I just don't, of course, I don't trust myself. Of course, I'm infected by hopium, but I go down state by state and I can get to the 57 or so, you know, without too much, even 58, without feeling like that it's impossible. I think 58 would be in Mississippi and Nebraska, but I don't think, you know, and those are, we have actual polling showing very, those are very close and I know you're going to just scoff if I even mention Louisiana, so I won't mention it, but I'm just, I'm keeping hopeful eye for Jamie Davis. But anyway, but you know, the more normal result of these 50, 50, if these very close races, you know, go either way would be 54, 55 in the Senate. But I actually think that is quite reasonable. I think at this point we're closer to, I'm closer to 55 just as a pure analytic matter than like 51 or 52. Okay. And governors, can I say one word about governors? Oh, please. I'm just going to think Amy Acton's going to be back. So that would give them 11 of the 14 largest states if they went Ohio. And then the three outstanding are Georgia, Florida, and Texas. Georgia and Texas are just flat even at every poll right now, basically, you know, at the governor's races. Florida, a little bit of an uphill thing, but not that much. I mean, it would be unbelievable if Democrats end up with 12 or 13 or 14 of the 14 largest states as governor. That really would be a very fitting exclamation point of, you know what, this was a real repudiation of Trump and Trumpism. And at least Harold, it's the possible end of that era and a possible brighter future. Yeah. I mentioned this last week. I, you know, some Texas friends thought it was interesting that Greg Abbott was doing his election night party in Austin. He is not traditionally, since that's not, you know, the core of the Republican base in the state. And they saw it as like, he thinks it's going to be a long night or is concerned and, you know, doesn't want to like throw a big party somewhere else in the state. I just, it's kind of an interesting tea leaf read from Texas Republicans. I think that those governor's races, they're going to be really close. Florida have the toughest read on, but I do think that Georgia and Texas will be close. You know, I saw a poll yesterday, Vermont, Phil Scott is like the last actual bulwark Republican left in America. Some people try to project other people onto bulwark Republicans. And I'm like, you haven't listened to the bulwark lately. If you think Spencer Cox is a bulwark Republican, but Phil Scott has, you know, kind of basically remained as a bulwark Republican in Vermont, the one place where you can do that. And even he's losing by seven in a poll I saw, and he's been there for a while. So I do think, it'll be a good night for Democrats on the governor's side and shut out to the DGA has been working on that though. The Texas race, I don't know, could be some regrets in Texas. If it comes up a little short, my thoughts on the house and Senate, I think that maybe kind of June excitable bill was really onto something. I think you've gained excitability by November because back in June or July, you were the one on the show being like, I think the Democrats go in with 230 or 240 house districts. And I'm like, I don't know, Bill, like that feels like a lot. There just aren't that many swing districts anymore. And I think that's right. My kind of more bold prediction is I do think the Democrats have 240 house seats, which would be a massive wave, way beyond what any of the experts said was possible, you know, given the gerrymandering, given the redistricting, just given our polarization. So, it's a stretch. I mean, it's not, I'm not guaranteeing it. I think that's definitely a stretch goal, but I look at the, I've been looking at the districts and I see it. And I think that there's a way to get there on some seats that are not quite Mississippi on partisan bailouts. If you look at the Senate, I remain nervous about the Senate. I struggle with Iowa. I think that Turek is the one that I'm the least confident in because, you know, Iowa was again, they might have three Democratic house members going back to the house. Rob Sand, we just talked about, you're asking a lot of people to go into the box who voted for Trump at 24 and to vote for three Democrats. And I do just psychologically worry that, that Turek ends up being kind of the odd man out, hence and running the most normal campaign of the Republicans. That one worries me. I'm a little hinky on Alaska too. And I just, it's, it's kind of hard. I'll believe it when I vote. I will be the 53rd. Um, and Alaska would be the 52nd state. Those are the three for me to watch. The Democrats really need to win one of them to be Fetterman proof. And I think that if it's 52, everybody should be happy. Okay. Don't feel disappointment if it's 52, that would be an unbelievable way for the Democrats to have gone into red territory and one, and I don't know. And I think, and a main is another one that I'm, I'm, I'm looking at. So, you know, I think that Democrats will get to a Fetterman majority, but like much more than that, I'm a little nervous about. So I just think the races are tough. And, um, uh, I hope I'm wrong about that, but, uh, that's, we can't leave the board podcast with people being too high on what's going to happen tomorrow. And then the other caution I give just to the center point, Matt Klein at the AP wrote this to win the Senate Democrats must flip seats and state's president carried by double digits two years before that's that entire list. I just gave besides me. How often does that happen since 1990? It's only happened five times. So the idea that the Democrats are going to do it five times this year, again, that's a big ask. It was Mark Kirk and Peter Fitzgerald in Illinois, Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, Ron John and, and, uh, Wisconsin and then Tester in Montana. Tester is the only Democrat that's done that since 1990. I just think it's real tough. No, even, well, even your somewhat more modest scenario requires them to flip what three seats to Trump is what probably implies that they'll flip two or three seats to Trump. Yeah. Well, that's, we'll see if it's a real tsunami or just a, or a pretty good wave or a big wave or a pretty good wave. Hard to know. The counter caution, Trump posted a picture of him looking like Elvis yesterday on truth social, and then went on, uh, on the, uh, did go to campaign for Ashley Henson and, uh, was talking about how she used to be kind of chonky and now she's getting thinner. So that's like the closing message from these guys. And his closing event today is at the reflecting pool. Isn't that the site of one of the most embarrassing things of his presidency? I mean, do people, do they think that's, that's really, he's really fixed up that reflecting pool and overcame the vandalism of all those horrible people who were chopping it up. And I don't know, it's pretty crazy. Indeed. And, and as we were taping this right now, I'm, I'm getting texts from the event, the JD Vance and Don Jr. at on election Eve, which is in Elise Stefanik's district in New York, helping out the guy that did the Trump is great ode to Trump rap album with Roger Stone as a Republican candidate. Um, just a total mega psycho. And, uh, that was a Trump plus 21 district. And that's where Chris Wright, Don Jr. and JD Vance are spending the night before the election. I mean, that really does say something. The vice president of the United States in a Trump plus 21 district trying to save it. Right. Crazy. I'm going back. You know, I, I think June bill was okay. I mean, I was already, I was ahead of the curve in Kansas. I, that would be, I would accept that result as 52 and two 40 would be great. And maybe 12 of the governors out of 14, but I'm, I'm sticking with October, you know, I'm, I'm high, high. It's hopium city here. All right. Here's my final prediction. I did for people who was on or on the members live stream last night, you know, that I now have a bet with Jonathan Cohn, who is in Michigan, been covering the race. I don't want to undermine the good reporting he's been bringing from, from us in Michigan, but you know, sometimes you can be a little too close to something. I felt this way in Arizona where I was a little too close to the Carrie Lake Katie Hobbs race. Cause I was covering it so much. And I saw how incompetent the Katie Hobbs campaign was and it made me feel like Carrie Lake's campaign was stronger than like it really was. And so you can just kind of get into a campaign bubble a little bit. And I think from a distance, I feel like I see the Michigan Senate race more clearly than anybody. And so our bet is that I think that Abdul Alsaad wins by more than six. And if so, he's going to send me a package from Zingerman's, a famous bakery in Michigan. And I don't know, I'll have to send him some, and there's so much good Louisiana foods. It's a little bit of an unfair bet, but I'll send him something from Louisiana. But, um, I, I that's where I'm at. I just, I don't see it. I don't understand what the people's concerns are. The times poll had Abdul Alsaad, like 93 to two or something with Kamala Harris voters, 94 to two. He is swamping with independent voters. This election is about the stupid war in Iran and the costs and Trump not caring about people's problems. And that's what Abdul Alsaad's campaigns are about. I don't think that people give a fuck about Haley Stevens at all. Like most regular people. I think that there's maybe a thousand people that care about this and a thousand votes is not going to do Mike Rogers much good. I think he's going to get schlonged tomorrow. So that is my, my positive. And, and, uh, do you have anything on that for, give it to JVL for some psychoanalysis? No, I think people will be eager to get this psychoanalysis from JVL. I don't want to stand in the way of that, you know? All right. But I'm glad you're ending. I'm glad you're ending on an upbeat note. Bill Kristol, thank you for the Mondays and the coverage this year. When we get back next Monday, the kind of, you know, winnings that we'll be able to roll over together, you know? And if it's not, if they're not winnings, it might just be someone else on with you. You know, I'm just, I'm thinking, I don't know if I can take it one more time. You got to go to work next Monday, no matter what. Appreciate you very much, Bill. Up next, JVL. Stick around. That's X-E-R-O. You can access reports, visual dashboards, forecasts, and AI insights to help you better understand your cash flow and make informed decisions. about your business, learn more at All right, we are back with a special Dr. Drew segment two on what the hell is going on with Haley Stevens and Jason Turkish. And I've brought in our kind of house therapist, psychologist, dark thinker, somebody who's been in a lot of confessions in his life, JVL. How are you doing, Jonathan V. Last? You know, I make suggestions. Haley makes decisions. We do have to start by pointing out that JVL is not always right. It turns out the T-shirt is. It's a lie. Yeah. The T-shirt is built on a throne of lies. Is the T-shirt. Well, or maybe there's kind of these things like once a year, there's the exception that proves the rule. You know, when people have brain breaks like a stroke in John Fetterman's case or whatever the fuck happened to Haley Stevens. Then then I get I can't come under the thrall of another man. Yeah, I can't foresee like psychotic breaks in people. I assume that people are basically what they appear to be. And yeah, well, OK, so here we go for people just to give the backstory for those who are not following this drama on Sunday on social media. Haley Stevens, like last week, had said that she was going to do a unity event at church. On Sunday with Abdul Saeed, she also put out a lot of some weird statements and stuff like demand. Cute. You know, there are a lot of demands really long. Yeah. And so you have very long statements where she's like, I endorse him. But also I demand that he denounce this random video that a guy that he once campaigned with uncle put out, you know, and OK, I understand that there's some sensitivities in this race. They've just been in a contested primary and hard fought primary. But she's acting kind of weird. But around that time on Friday, you know, she was still saying she was endorsing him. And you wrote and like basically there's a lengthy newsletter telling everybody to just buck up and win. You know, you're sending that message in Alaska to people complaining about Mary Paltola. It's like Mary Paltola is doing politics, buck up and win. And in Michigan, kind of to the Haley people, stop whining, buck up and win. To the progressives wanting about Haley, stop whining, buck up and win. But that did include this paragraph. For a lot of progressives, Stevens hasn't done enough. No matter how many times she says she's supporting El Sayed, progressives are sure that in her heart of hearts, she doesn't really mean it. She doesn't truly love El Sayed, to which I say, grow up. Haley Stevens did her duty. Abdul El Sayed has agency here. Tim does not have a T-shirt in the store, but you did send me a slack about that draft in which I wrote. I don't know. I think Haley and Turkish are insane. So I think I might have had a little bit more of a bead on that one. But anyway, I'll give you the floor on that, and then we'll discuss what happened yesterday. Here's the thing about Haley Stevens. I always think everybody should vote their conscience. And so if she genuinely believed that Mike Rogers was a better option for the country than Abdul El Sayed, I would argue against that, like on the merits. And I think I have a very good case to make. Sure. But okay. Like, you know, if she believes it, even if it's stupid. Like, she really believes it, at least. I do not think there is any evidence to suggest that she actually believes that. Like, she endorsed him. She has said all these things about Mike Rogers. She was still on board up to 24 hours beforehand. Then her staff thought she was going to be there, and she cuts a video in her car. I mean, this looks like somebody having a mental breakdown. Yeah. And not like somebody making either a principled decision. Or even a calculated decision. Like, it just looks like someone going crazy. And in that sense, it's a very good thing that she didn't win the Senate primary, because you don't want somebody who might go crazy being elected to the Senate. Yeah. John Fetterman. Although, again, that's slightly different. The guy had a stroke, right? Maybe Jason Turkish is kind of like a human stroke who came into her life. I don't know. I don't know what the Jason Turkish. So I've gotten a little bit into the backstory. And like. They did get engaged after like a month or something. Three months, I think. It was a very, very short time. Now, look. On the one hand, when you're 23 and you fall in love, like, you should take your time. And when you're a grown-up and you fall in love, like, you know what you want. And so, like, my standards for, hey, does that look prudential or not? Like, get pretty lax the older people get. Right? I mean, you're older. Like, you either get busy living or get busy dying. Right? As Red says in Shawshank. That's true. But you're in an emotional campaign. You just meet this guy. He's a donor. He comes in. Now, the staff tells us that in May, they met. And he was, like, behind the scenes giving all types of terrible advice. And he was an AIPAC donor and also a Susan Collins donor. And then the campaign ends. And he's Jewish. She's not. They go to Israel together. They're like, we're going to honeymoon and get married in Israel. It is weird. I mean, it's weird. It feels like somebody making a whole bunch of life decisions that are much bigger than a political campaign. Yeah. Very rash life decisions. Who's about to, like, make a mid-career change and decides they want to live on a kibbutz or they want to open a bookstore or they want to become a holistic therapist or healer or something. You know what I'm saying? It feels more like that than, like, somebody either making a deeply, you know, deeply held convicted place or, like, or somebody making a cynical play for power or usefulness. Like, it doesn't feel like that either. You know? No, it's insane. I mean, there's no. There's no argument. The people who argue this is a principled decision will say, this is what never Trumpers want. We want country over party. I do. And as I said, I do not. Also, also that, like, because this is obvious, you know, because if they lose, if Mike Rogers wins, which I don't expect, which I just said. No, I don't think so either. That race is slipping away. Then she gets blamed. Right. If Abdul El-Sad wins by a lot, which I do expect, then it's like, OK, well, you're you have no power. You've alienated everybody. And you've demonstrated yourself to be feckless. So there's no, like, political argument for it. Well, no, no political argument. And she is, again, she just looks like somebody who is erratic and can't be trusted. Yeah. I mean, and by trusted, I don't mean, like, loyalty wise. I mean, can't be trusted to, like, make reasonable decisions on on timelines that are understandable to other actors around her. You know? Yeah. So. And I, again, I really do believe that I want everybody to vote their conscience at all times. And if she, you know, if if the primary had ended and she had said, look, I'm sorry, but I just can't get behind Abdul El-Sad. And I'm going to ride with Mike Rogers. I think he's better. I would have, again, argued that that was mistaken and wrong. Particularly if it was on the grounds that I'm really upset about that Abdul is mean and too mean and religiously bigoted. Immediately at the end of the camp of the primary campaign. Though, we didn't know exactly what this is going to run. The most Muslim campaign ever. So this is this is the thing that gets me. So what new information have we gotten about Rogers and El-Sayed since the end of the primary campaign? Well, since the end of the primary campaign, El-Sayed has been pretty inclusive. And you could like if if you want to say that I believe in his heart of hearts, he bears ill will towards Jews and Israelis like, OK, like, I can't. I can't. I can't prove you. Otherwise, I can't see into the guy's heart, whatever. Mike Rogers has run, as you and I have said, like the most explicitly bigoted and racialist campaign, like since I don't know, Jim Crow or something like Trump 16, but Trump 16, maybe like it's stunning. And so that like what is the new information Haley has gotten about the two candidates? Well, she's got the information that Abdul El-Sayed has, you know, been reasonable and tried to meet people halfway. And. And that Mike Rogers has been the bigot. And so with that new information, she decides she has to switch from El-Sayed to Rogers. It doesn't make any sense. I can make some sense of it. We're going to put a pin in that for the very end. And I want to go through her her psychotic break first, but just really quick. So you do you do acknowledge that the progressives who saw that she didn't really mean that in her heart of hearts, they were reading her better than you. So I will say this. And I, you know, I went out of the Reddit yesterday and I was like, all right, everybody, here's a here's a unified thread for everybody to dunk on me. I want everybody to do it in one place. And many people did it. Many of them very funny and good. But there were a few people who. Who were like really silly. And they're like, you know, ah, I knew she was going to do this. I was like, really, you knew you knew that she was going to tell Dingle and Clyburn that she was showing up at the. The event to endorse him, but that she would leave her staff there and then she would show up at the end. Like, I don't think I heard anybody saying that this is what she's going to do. Right. And like, this is. But the other thing is that, like, you know, I they say I knew she would do this because the centrists always betray the progressives. The centrists never get on board. And I'm like, the reason this is such a big deal is because all of the centrists are on board. Slotkin. What's a Slotkin? But Whitmer, Obama, they're all totally. Mallory McMorrow. Justice for Mallory. Yeah, this is I mean. This is so notable because she's the one who isn't doing this. That's true. Haley's psychotic break. Yeah. So she has dinner with Jim Blanchard, former governor of Michigan, the night before. It's a couple's dinner, three couples. She brings Turkish. Blanchard tells a reporter that during that dinner, she said that she was with Abdul still. Turkish got mad at her, started berating her. That's a healthy relationship. Talking about how terrible Abdul is. He starts talking about how people are going to be disappointed in her. I assume kind of the AIPAC crowd is going to be disappointed in her is basically what he was saying after they'd supported her so much in the primary. After that dinner, she called Debbie Dingle, apparently. According to Debbie Dingle, she weirdly wouldn't really answer whether that was true or not on CNN last night. We'll play a clip from that in a second. But she goes to dinner with Blanchard, says she's for Abdul, calls Debbie Dingle, says she's for Abdul still. At 1.30 a.m., she texts. She texts Blanchard and Clyburn saying, I love you guys. Blanchard read that. Blanchard was like, that's a strange text, but I assume that means I love you for coming to this event with me tomorrow, but maybe not. I'll keep an eye on it. She also talks to some other people. Wakes up in the morning. She talks to someone even at 8.45 a.m. in the morning and says she's still with Abdul. And then she gets in her car. And drives to the Mike Rogers church instead. And outside the church, she tapes a video where she says she's endorsing Mike Rogers. And she says that she. From her car. Using kind of a psychotic angle. There's a funny movie director who posted a tweet. Dutch angles. Yeah, this is the Dutch angle, which we use to demonstrate that somebody is losing their mind. So she does the video from the Dutch angle. And in it, she says, I woke up and I had some clarity about who I wanted to go to church with. So she talks about it. And this very like existential kind of life or death that she did not feel comfortable at church. With the. Well, sad people. And then she meets Mike Rogers has a press conference during the press conference and asked her why she's doing this. She talks about how she got booed at the convention, which I think reveals something about what the purpose of this is. And also says that she still wants Democrats to win. That is an insane 18 hours. She should have taken a trip. To Jamaica for the weekend, right? I mean, like, this is just an X bar. Yeah, I just. Is social media rotting people's brains? Like, I mean, obviously the answer is yes. Yes. It does seem like this is like the Joe Manchin thing, like the John Fetterman thing. There is a class of people who are so wired into this stuff that it just lives with them rent free. In their heads all the time and makes them do weird things like in the way that Joe Manchin has decided the Democrats are so dangerous. Yeah, there isn't a real sensitivity. And I think one of the telling things about that is a reporter then asked her subsequently to endorse. Well, said she had all these demands. We just mentioned this earlier. There was an encyclical put out on Friday about like all the things he needed to rebuke and say in order for her to campaign with him. And so reporter asked her, like, did you have any demands for Mike Rogers? Like, I don't know that. The president that he supports stopped calling Abdul Muhammad and saying that he were going to need a one person metal detector before we allow him into the Senate or, you know, for the Secretary of Health and Human Services to stop saying that Arabs are stupid. You know, you could just go down the list or that he's a jihadist or that Mike Rogers wouldn't support any of the policies that she said that she cared about during all the time in the House where she voted against Trump like 97 percent of the time. Was is there any policy issue with which you want Mike Rogers to come meet you in the middle? She said no. So, like, again, this was about this is personal. It was like she felt personally aggrieved that the Democrats were making fun of her. The Republicans were not making fun of her. So she felt comfortable over there. This is similar to the Fetterman thing. And, you know, she also has this fiance that seems to care mostly about Israel as his top issue and anti-Semitism. And like. That combination of things. She's just like, fuck it. Yeah, whatever. I'll be on board with all of Mike Rogers is nastiness because, you know, I feel personally aggrieved and resentful. It's free country. She can do that. But, you know, like the rest of us are allowed to look at that and say that's that's bad. But yeah. And psychotic. Let's do some evidence of this. She is on CNN last night for 15 minutes. If people are bored on election day. Why does she keep going to. It's a good 15 minutes. That's the other weird thing. Like if it's just a personal like. Again, I understand the motivation of spite. Yeah. And I will. Anybody who says like does something crazy and say, why did you do that? And they say, I just did it out of spite. I'm like, OK, I get that. You know, I'll give that a pass. But it is weird to go like the spite of actually doing the heel turn to then like I got to go talk about it everywhere. Yeah. And not have a clear message. That's the other thing. She goes on CNN. A bunch of her staff quits. We should also mention yesterday. And so I think we learn a lot about staff work when you see this interview, because whoever was briefing her for interviews before was doing a pretty good job because when she's on her own, it's pretty rough. So it's 15 minutes of her just kind of really grasping for something to say. And Anderson Cooper does really a great job of just kind of letting her, you know, hang herself, essentially. Metaphorically speaking, you know, he just like lets her fill silence. There's one, though, little bit that I do want to play. It's it speaks to the question of some people saying that, like, this is a very principled thing. And she just wanted to support the person on policy. She agrees with more on here. One of the answers she gives on that question. I'm casting my vote a certain way. And I, you know, I hope to see more kindness within the Democratic Party and for for all of us to just accept when somebody has a disagreement. I mean, that's fine. I changed my mind. You know, I said, hey, I don't need your endorsement. That's fine. You know, and why the anger? Why the frustration? Why the obsession with Iran and all these other issues about, you know, what's going on overseas? What are we going to do here in this country? OK, so she wants more kindness. And so she's going to be voting for the Trump endorsed Republican. And she she doesn't understand why Abdul is talking so much about Iran. Which is kind of the most significant issue of the election. Kind of. I so I got to I got to be honest. I remember the first time we started talking about her and it was after Mallory dropped out. I just assumed, oh, Abdul Syed is going to win this by 20 points because it is not possible that voters could look at this person who is one of the worst candidates I've ever seen. Just as a piece of political horse flesh. Like just I mean, look at the way. She talks, look at her, her affect, like she's terrible. And Sarah was like, no, no, there are people who really like her. This is Michigan. Michigan's funny. Like this is a Michigan brand thing. And people and I was like, that can't be true. And then she nearly won the primary. And I just was like, really? Because she looks like the worst candidate I've ever seen, honestly. And that was that again. But maybe I don't know. Maybe that plays differently in Michigan. I don't think so. This this election is about. Iran and about prices and about Trump not caring about people's actual concerns. I think going on TV and making this about her feelings and diminishing Iran is an issue. It's crazy. Instead, focusing on her feelings being slighted that the Democrats are too mean. And also she's concerned about anti-Semitism. I think that has a very, very, very narrow type of appeal. And I don't think it's going to make any difference. This is the other thing. So, I mean, I agree. I can't imagine this moves. There's 10 votes. I mean, maybe I said earlier, a thousand. Maybe it was a thousand. Maybe a thousand. Who cares? To the extent it hurts anything. It has probably makes it marginally harder for Abdul to close by just talking about the things he wants to talk about, because this takes up a lot of oxygen. But I don't think it's necessarily bad for him, honestly, to have a crazy person out there like making a right now for herself. Like, I actually think it probably helps the Democratic unity and Democratic turnout, like for people to look. And I, you know, I myself have been, like, slightly radicalized on on the question of Abdul El-Sayed, because he is in his favor. Yeah, because the level of disgusting bigotry that he has faced over the last several months has been shocking, and he's handled it pretty gracefully. Yeah. And part of me. I'm going to be excited to see him win. Actually, part part of me and, you know, not all of me, but part of me says, even if the Senate didn't matter, like, like, you know, this wasn't like a tipping point vote. Part of me, out of spite, would want to see him win just so that the chuds who think it's OK to talk about Muslim Americans get this shoved down their throats because a victory for him is a victory for pluralism. So, again, I don't like that, especially. But, like, I don't know. I would like. like to see campaigns like the ones that have been waged against him fail. amen to that i think it will and i have to correct myself from segment one i i believe i said that uh the new york times poll showed abdul's side at 93 to 2 with kamala harris voters it was 96 to 2 so this idea there's this big outpouring of hayley stevens type democrats who are like there just isn't like that just isn't a thing i mean look for 10 days now every single poll in michigan has showed increasing separation for him like he's gonna win and i think he's gonna win by like running away me too like i do not think it's going to be a close election right the final topic well i just don't want there to be like an elephant in the room an unspoken okay elements all this like i understand that people are going to be more sensitive about slights and threats to like people they love like that's just natural right that is why racism is bad by the way that's why saying racist stuff even if you're doing it tongue-in-cheek is bad because it like gets people back up it's hurtful like it can lead to kind of spiraling anger and it can lead to like a lot of things that are going to happen in the future so i think resentment and it's it's it's best to be part of a human you know the big human tapestry here to just like be kind and be sensitive about other people's sensitivities and so like i see it myself i don't really get that much of the gay stuff but like if there's something like that is racist towards black women or like adopted kids like i get i've found myself getting like really hot about something like probably even more so than it merited because i was projecting it onto my daughter you know and so i think it's a good thing that we're seeing that there's a lot of racism and so like i understand i love anti-catholic stuff i think it's funny yeah okay so i understand that though it's a little different though with different things since i understand why hayley stevens might be sensitive she's his new fiance she's in love sensitive about anti-semitic stuff why muslim americans are yeah are especially sensitive about islamophobia like i also don't want to like minimize the threat of anti-semitism it's real like there has been an uptick or like the passionate feelings muslim americans have about what's happening in gaza it's horrible right so i don't want any of this to like be like i don't want to be like i don't want to be like be seen as diminishing any of that but it does just seem like this one issue like causes people in politics to like totally lose their mind and i think that it's important to like just reflect on that a little bit like it was the issue that made some left folks endorse jill stein and attack kamala and say that joe genocide joe biden and like help donald trump get in and it seems to be the issue that has like caused hayley stevens to go insane and like endorse maga mike rogers in the senate race one thing i've evolved on i think that the degree to which this is um uh immersed in our politics i think is deeply unhealthy and i think it i think that what is going on in the middle east and particularly israel and and related israel palestine is like it's something that we should just kind of back away from a little bit and obviously we have certain interests that we need to take care of and you know we want to protect people from terrorist attacks or protect people from human rights abuses but like this just isn't healthy like having a situation where this primary like turned into basically like a proxy israel palestine fight where the the apac put in 33 million on one side you know abdul did not have that kind of financial support on the other side but obviously kind of all big rallying like it's not going well over there i don't know if you've noticed you know kind of the religious factionalism and i don't think that we should import it here well uh i mean the good news is that this is changing real fast and we are on the cusp of an emerging bipartisan consensus that wants nothing to do with israel in america harry and talked about this with you on the show he mentioned that in michigan with voters who care about who's just say that the israel issue is important to them as well as say it is outperforming his own numbers with them yeah and uh i promise you whatever comes next in the republican party post-trump is not going to be more favorable to israel yeah and uh like i don't know like i i do worry about rising amputee semitism here at home yeah especially once like 70 of the country wants nothing to do with israel yeah on the other hand raising the salience of this issue to become the central issue in our politics does that help or hurt no no it's crazy it's crazy and uh and i'm sorry benjamin netanyahu has a lot to answer for here like benjamin netanyahu has lost america for israel and i don't i'm not sure if like israelis have come to terms with that i don't know and i just think people are really immersed in this issue that it's like their top issue like it's hard to see clearly it's just like yeah it's just like that i said at the top like sometimes i don't see that's why i wanted that's why i did the preamble because like yeah i don't know i don't know it's like with love like i i i don't sometimes i don't see things clearly sometimes if if there is a personal attack that i feel like impacts like a family member or something so i i understand this is i almost like him as a friend i'm just trying to say to people like this is not helping like what haley stevens and jay sturgis would happen in this race is not helping because of no of stopping not helping or slowing anti-semitism or the cause of israel but or even just because of like curbing domestic anti-semitism like it is exacerbating micro 100 is done this is i mean nothing what apac has done over the last three years four years has helped in that at all in fact it's i think apac has probably hurt the cause of american jews very severely strategic it's kind of like you go sarah talks about this a lot of the gay rights fight like if you go back to it and like learn the lessons from it in 2000 and you know it's just like it wasn't like hrc was running ads you know featuring what was happening at pride parades like you must like you must accept you know what i mean like there's just there's strategic you can fight for the thing you believe in and do it in a smart way that persuades or you can do it in a way that turns people off and i think that mike rogers and haley stevens are doing the latter yeah i mean they are hurt by the fact that israel is basically being run by criminal regime at this point you know like this is the actions of israel the the problem in all of this is like it is it becomes very hard to disentangle like it becomes very hard to disentangle the actions of the israeli government especially vis-a-vis their interests in american democracy and their willingness to help donald trump subvert american democracy yeah like i like i don't know like what do you you know what are you supposed to do about that like you know you can like israel in in the abstract you can believe in its right to exist and all that stuff but then you look you're like i'm sorry the government of israel is on the side of donald trump yeah that's a problem it's running a you know i mean an apartheid state in the west you know you have a lot of like letting settlers run free and anyway you can go down the whole list okay well that's a fun little chat anything else you have any final jason turkish i'm glad that nobody is going to be mad at us for any of that oh yeah do you think that um i bet jason turkish and haley stevens did some pretty good love making last night though don't you think here's my question i i i refuse to picture that um do you think they get married that no that's different okay hold on two questions do you think they get married and then do you think they're still married 36 months later i haven't or does this look like i took like five years ten years from now haley stevens is like runs her own garden center and has like settled down and she looks back on this period of her life as like the crazy like god i lost my mind for a little bit you could literally tell me anything you tell me they moved to the kibbutz and you could tell me that haley stevens turns republican and that they and like she's the republican nominee for governor in michigan next time like you could tell me that she runs a garden center i don't i have no idea like i think it's like we are we are like we are outside the realm of of rationality and anything can happen love wins and so in the same way that i was rooting for marjorie taylor green and her bow and i was happy for them when they tied the knot i hope that if this is the right match for them the jason and haley just you know go ahead do it get married and start a beautiful life together and i wish them all the best i don't think i do um but good luck to them and uh hopefully this was an enjoyable bonus segment for you guys on the monday pod we feel like you needed a lot of material to distract you so if you did get a little angry about something that's good this is good this is a distraction from the anxiety you know an abstraction from the from the sheer panic that that the that the prospect of the new york times needle brings into the heart of anybody in the pro-democracy the arrows man we're gonna get all the the little tiny arrows across the country showing up we did this for you uh anyway jv i appreciate jv i'll be back on wednesday we're gonna we're gonna wrap up we'll have a special bulwark daily tnl crossover event wednesday morning to wrap up the results we'll see on wednesday all right but you can put your clothes back on she's leaving you no time to apologize for the things you do go rent a ferrari and sing the blues believe that clapton was the second I'll see you next time. It falls apart We all got work to do It gets dark We all got work to do She's leaving She's leaving The Bulwark Daily is brought to you thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper, associate producer Ansley Skipper, and with video editing by Dante DiCicco, and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown. Hey, this is Mario Lopez from All In The World. This is the Mario Lopez Daily Podcast, and let's talk about the 2026 Tundra in Tacoma. They're more than the MVP. They are the GOAT, greatest of all trucks, and it's not football season without them. These trucks are made to dominate, cada mia, and bring la victoria home. With gold standard power, craftsmanship, and durability, they bring every possibility to life on game day. Learn more about the Toyota Trucks game day sales event and score big by checking out your local dealer or visiting toyota.com today. See, Packages and options at Toyota.com for future availability.