Biggest Values Risers & Fallers in the First Half! (7/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

(Avallistus) Mennäänkin huomena korkeasaarein. Eläinteisaariona voinna vuoden jokaisena päivänä. Pierallimalla korkeasaareissa tuet eläinlajien ja villinluon on suojelua. Tutustupäivän ohjelmaan, korkeasaaripistefi. (Avallistus) Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. (Avallistus) (Avallistus) T-Class Film! This is what I bet! What the hell? Täällä on Fannasi-question, e-mail [email protected]. Täällä on Fannasi-pallista, koska on reality! Täällä on Frank Scott and Chris. Täällä on Fannasi-baseball. On Wednesday, 15. Täällä on Frank Scott, johon. Täällä on Fannasi-pallista. Jami Campbell, kuten olemme? Täällä on Fannasi-pallista, johon. 915, 2,690. Riley Green from 8.79 to 6.94. Say a Suzuki from 8.67 to 6.88. P. Crow Armstrong from 8.47 to 6.34. And if you look at ERA for pictures, Matthew Boyd, first half ERA 234, second half 463. Robbie Ray from 265 to 554. Framberville Des from 275 to 5.20. You say Kikuchi. That's right, you say Kikuchi from 3.11, which I don't think anybody was buying in the first half of last season all the way up to 551 in the second half. That doesn't mean all the players on this list are going to take a huge step back in the second half, but I just want to remind people that obviously things can change from one half of the season to the next. And so let's get into the biggest value risers in the first half. And I will avoid early round names like James Wood and Yordon Alvarez. Tomorrow we're doing a podcast redrafting the first two rounds, and I'm sure those two names will be in there. So I didn't really focus on third or fourth round picks who jumped up into the first round. It was like guys who were interrupted who are now top 10 players in fantasy baseball. And let's start with Jordan Walker, the home run derby champ. His preseason ADP was 512. He was either a last round pick or a free agent pick up in a lot of leagues. He's currently the fourth overall hitter in Roto. He is the eighth best hitter in total head to head point so far hitting 294, 22 home runs, 74 RBI, which leads baseball 13 steals in 887 OPS. Scott, what has changed for Jordan Walker? What's changed for him among other things is that he's gotten the strikeout rate way down. He's hit the ball harder on average, barreled it up more. I don't know that it's any one thing. It's just he's kind of grown into the skill set that was there all along. And look, he's only 24. A lot of players are 24. It's the rookie season. And so part of it, I think maybe they rushed him to the majors because he was such a good prospect. And then immediately they started tinkering with the swing to try and get him to elevate better, which was a noble goal. But as I recall the way they went about it was just telling him just that you got to lift the ball more and not really working through the mechanics of that. I don't know. It's obviously what they're relaying to the media. And we don't know what happens behind the scenes. Hopefully there was a little more to it than that. He has avoided hitting his mini-ground balls this year as he has historically. It's not so much reflected in the fly ball rate itself, which almost all home runs are fly balls, occasionally get a line drive home run. But obviously the home run increases as the biggest change there. But other than his history, other than Jordan Walker's remarkable history through age 23, which again, maybe is not worth clinging to that tightly. But other than that, I don't see much reason for skepticism here. I think Jordan Walker has grown into the star. He was projected to be all along. Let's fire up the buy cello meter. And 10 is that you completely buy it, completely buy what Jordan Walker has done. One, you are selling it and that you should probably look to sell high on this player in fantasy baseball. So that being the barometer, what 10? Where is Jordan Walker on the buy cello meter? So I'm going to put it at less than 10. I agree. I think there's not a point of having a meter if it's all ones in tens. But I don't want anybody to take it as like, oh, I'm worried about Jordan Walker because I'm giving him less than a 10, okay? No grade inflation here. I will put it at a 7.5. If I'm allowed to do decimals. I was thinking 7, too. And again, a 10 to me would be, hey, he can replicate this exact thing in the second half. But I think him as great as he's been in all the things that he has improved this season, him maintaining a near 900 OPS in the second half of the season. I think it's just bound to come down even if it's a little bit. And we have seen like, he struggled a little bit in June and then obviously he's bounced back in July. But yeah, I would put it at like a 7. I mostly buy Jordan Walker. And I think he's going to have a very, very good second half. But maybe, maybe not as good as the first half that he just produced. Let's take our first break. When we return, we will get into a couple of Marlins hitters on a low-peds Liam Hicks having big first halves. We'll get into those right after this. (bell dinging) (water splashing) Nordeo Private Banking (bell dinging) (bell dinging) - Welcome back, fantasy baseball today. And we are taking a look at the biggest value changes from preseason until now. And we are starting with the risers and autolo pes. Had a preseason ADP of 2.29. He is currently the eighth overall hitter in Rotto the 11th best hitter in head to head points. He is hitting 3.34 with nine homers, 61 runs, 45 RBI, 17 steals and an 8.74 OPS. He leads MLB and hits 127 of them and batting average. Scott, what has changed this year, Frodo Lopez? - Well, it's again, the changes are more like on the margins than some dramatic change that completely transformed him into the hitter he's been. The expected stats on stat cast, totally by the improvement. His expected batting average is 2.90. That's very good. That's 94th percentile. In fact, it's not nearly as good as the 3.34 mark that he's currently carrying. But it confirms that autolo pes is indeed one of the best hitters for average in baseball. He is hitting the ball slightly harder, both average, exit velocity and max exit velocity up about a mile per hour on each. Strike out some walks of both gotten a little bit worse. In a way, it reminds me of Geraldo Perdoma, obviously one of the biggest surprises from last season in that a bunch of little improvements added up to much better numbers that were somewhat supported by the expected stats. The expected stats didn't say it was all fake. Obviously, Geraldo Perdoma gave it back the following year. The way that that comparison isn't perfect is that autolo pes hits the ball harder than Geraldo Perdoma. Even harder than Perdoma did last year, even the harder than Perdoma always has. So he might, from an offensive standpoint, just be better base level than Perdoma is. And so for that reason alone, I would give it more legitimacy than what we saw from Perdoma last year, which by the way, I should note, I was buying into at the time. Obviously that was a mistake. I think we can now say pretty clearly. So, you know, Lopez has been great. I don't think he can sustain a 334 batting average. And I question if he can even sustain the expected mark there for as good as it is. - Mm-hmm. Yeah, when I dug in, I didn't really see too much that change year over year. I think last year he was unlucky. If you look at his numbers compared to his expected stats, this year, I think he's actually been a little bit lucky compared to, look, the expected stats are still very good. But again, 334 batting average. And if you look at his X-Wobba year over year, last year it was 330. This year it's 336. So it really hasn't improved that much. His batbip is up over 100 points from 264 to 370. So if we are firing up the buy sellometer, again, 10 being he can sustain what he did in the first half going into the second half, one, we're completely selling it. We don't buy it at all. I think I'd probably put auto Lopez at like a four. Is that on fame? No, it's not unfair. What do you mean by four? Like what would you do with auto Lopez right now? I think there's a sell high opportunity, but it would have to be really high. And based on where you were drafting him, obviously, like whatever, what he's given you has already found money, right? Like he was outside the top 280P. So I guess I would lean more towards like, if you can sell really high, I would do it. But if you don't get what you think is a fair return, let's say I'd like a top 15 starting picture or a top, I don't know, 25 hitter in return or again, selling really high, then I'd probably just want to. I mean, that's pretty high. It's really high. Yeah. That's pretty high. Maybe I shot that too. Maybe it's like a top 20 picture or a top, I don't know, 40 hitter, something like that. Now I was listening to my kids over this week, over the weekend, my kids who are 11 and 8 and one of their friends from when we lived in Florida, they were doing, their own like fantasy baseball draft for the second half. Kind of weird rules and 16 league and just just like dabbling in it basically, but they're all very interested in it. They were hyped about it. Their friend in Florida took auto Lopez in round three of this 16 draft. Big Marlon's fan seems especially obsessed with auto Lopez. So I hope he doesn't hear this podcast. Because I don't want his world to come crashing down. But I don't actually think you're talking about third round value in a 12 team context. I think that's a stretch. I think most people would see that as a stretch, even though has Lopez has been the top second baseman or top shortstop. He's eligible both still. Yeah, I have him as the eighth overall hitter in Roto 11 best hitter and head dead point. So he has so obviously he's performed up to that. I don't know. I just I'd be surprised if you actually got that form, which means it sounds like you're holding on to him. I agree. I agree just by virtue of him hitting 334. The game mathematically doesn't support guys hitting 334 anymore, particularly unless they have an outlier strikeout rate and or huge power. So they get free hits, babbip independent hits because the ball sailing over the fence. It just doesn't happen. So like he's going to have to regress some in that regard. If he regresses just to his expected batting average of 295, obviously he's still a great option in fantasy. But again, I'm worried he might regress even more than that. So I'll put it at five. I'll be a little more optimistic than you up without a low pez, but only five. And I don't want to come off as negative on these players, but it's just the way that things usually play out over the course of a full season for players that come out of nowhere and are the best players in fantasy in the first half. You're almost expecting regression in the second half just based on how good they've been. So I hope not all these players are just like really low on this meter that I've created. But let's find out. Let's talk about his teammate Liam Hicks who is preseason ADP was 749 according to fan graph. So I mean, he was undrafted and mostly he was I think you picked him up in a in tow wars, which is a 15 team two catcher. Yeah. So you were able to pick him up basically anywhere. He is currently the 11th best hitter in Roto. He gets propped up in that format because catchers get propped up. But 3.2 fantasy points per game. That's third among catchers behind only Ben Rice and Ryan Jeffers. He's hitting 290 with 13 whole runs 50 run score 58 RBI and an 822 PS despite going on the aisle 58 RBI the second most among catchers. This season only behind Dylan Dingler. Scott what has changed for Liam Hicks and where does he rank on the buy cell? Ometer. So he was always a good contact. He's become one of those outlier contact hitters this year strike out rate of less than 9%. So that's that's a big part of it. That's his main strength. I would say is just putting that to ball. It's really weak contact on average. The pull air rate has gotten better. It's at least in the red now, but it's not excessive. It's not like Esok parade is a pull air rate. So I'm I'm still not really sure how Liam Hicks is making this work, especially with all the home runs 13 of them in the first half. So this is another one, you know, not to not to make the young Marlins fans cry out there, but it seems like another obvious overachiever. I hope Chris isn't listening. Well, I don't I think Chris is not the young Marlins fan. I'm referring to he can take it, right? He could take it. He's he's even more number oriented than I am probably. So I think he would say more firmly than I am. I'm very skeptical of take some surprise. He hasn't dropped off already. I did pick him up and Tau Wars for free. The second straight year to catcher 15 team league. Everybody's like, well, aren't you taking catchers? And I'm like, it'll be fine. And I pick up a guy off the waiver wire who ends up being usually impactful. Liam Hicks this year was Drake Baldwin last year. So my catcher situation ended up fine. And that context, you know, one of two catchers in a 15 team league. It's not like somebody's got a spare catcher hanging around that it's not like I picked up a third one that I'd be fine slotting it for Hicks. So I'm probably just going to keep playing them. But if you're in a situation where you can consider trading him, I think it's a good idea. I would probably put the buy sell meter at a three. It feels harsh, but yeah. That's what I was thinking. I can't go as low as one because he's already exceeded. He's already sustained it up to this point. As I said, to my surprise, which makes me doubt myself and makes me wonder, okay, is there something here I'm missing? But yeah, I can't go higher than three. And I really don't think that you'll be able to get much for Liam Hicks in a trade. So it's another situation where unless someone just kind of blows the doors off in a two catcher league, I'd probably just ride it out. And, you know, let's see how long he can do this. And if he starts to fall off, you know, the first month into the second half, then all right, we move on to the next catcher. And speaking of the next catcher, we have Dylan Dingler, whose preseason ADP was 255. He is currently the 13th best hitter in Roto. For all the Roto rankings, I use the fan graphs play rate on on fan graphs. So in case you're wondering where I got these numbers. And then 3.1 fantasy points per game that is tied for fourth among catchers, 262 19 homers 60 RPI in 831 OPS. He actually had also expected stats last year that he underperformed. And those have gotten even better. So he hits the ball decently hard. The barrel rate is up. Pulled air rate looks really good. Scott, where is Dylan Dingler on the buy cellometer? I would put Dylan Dingler at. Let's put him in like a seven maybe. I'm trying to decide if I want to go higher or lower than Jordan Walker. I like it though. He's ranked top 20 in X-Wobba for all hitters like all season long. His actual numbers and his underlying numbers are fantastic. So yeah. So that makes me wonder if I should go even higher. Part of the hesitation is this is the second straight year. He's underperformed as expected stats. They were just as good last year, frankly. It could be a Detroit thing. It could be. I was going to pull up the home wasplets here and see if that shed any light on the Dylan Dingler situation. And not really. It's actually been about the same home and away. And that was also true. It was last year. It was much better on the road last year. But this year that hasn't been the case. I have a natural distrust of players who don't walk much. I think it leaves them vulnerable to slumps and pitchers discovering their weaknesses and them never being the same. I've seen it happen with plenty of players over the years. And it's kind of ingrained to me as somebody who came of age professionally in the money ball era. But he does Dylan Dingler. It's the ball very hard. His strike out raid is is not bad at all. And he hits the ball in the air well. So I think I think he's going to remain a solid if not very good starting catcher and fantasy. Next up, we have Brian Reddle, Tuesday's preseason 80 P was 205. He's currently the 14th overall hitter in Roto. The ninth best in total head Ted points hitting 283 14 homers 68 runs 59 RBI seven steals in 878 OPS. And what changed for him. The thing that stands out most, the walk rate probably. But just finally has more support around him. Like how many years was it just him and only the crews in the pirates lineup. And now he's got brain to allow and Ryan O'Hern and as Merlin Valdez. It's just like their lineup is a lot better all around. And last year's God, he was he was actually unlucky in terms of his expected stats. And I think that's mostly just reverse course. So where is Brian Realtz for you on the buy cello meter? I think Brian Reynolds is about exactly who I expect him to be. I agree that he was one of the biggest underachievers last year. He was there were some things going on with his swing tweaks he made that maybe were a bad idea. But the data wasn't that different from what we'd seen from Brian Realtz historically. And he was among my sleeper picks for this year really because I expected him to bounce back. And then it seemed to be priced in in drafts. So it's gone very well. Anytime you see a guy hitting go for 280 who doesn't do it all the time. It's not like Freddie Freeman or somebody like that Bobby would. You would expect a little bit of regression there, but it's not unprecedented for Reynolds. He's a career 272 hitter. In theory, he's more of a benefit than a detriment to batting average, though he's been both at times in his career. The walk rate is way up this year. That's the biggest thing. Point sliggs, Reynolds is killing it. But you're right. He's somebody who plays every day and he's in a good lineup. I was always been a steady source of runs at RBI just because of how much he plays, but now he's become an even better one in what's been a good pirate's lineup. Home run pace is a little behind where we're used to seeing it, but I think you'll take that trade off. Again, particularly in points, leagues. I think everybody should be pretty happy with Reynolds as a number two type outfielder. I would put him in like an eight, I think. Yeah, I was thinking a six or seven didn't do that on purpose, but yeah, just because I expect I'd probably expect him to hit more like two 60 in the second half of the season. And maybe some of the power stuff comes down. The ground ball rate has been up the past couple of years, but overall, I still think he's going to be very good. Like instead of an 878 OPS, maybe he hits 260 and he's 800 OPS bat, which would still be very good. It's just not as good as he was in the first half. But overall, I think he was a great value where he was going and I expected him to take a little bit of a step back, but not enough where he's going to like plummet or anything in the second half. Luis Garcia, Jr. coming off, you know, one of the hottest points that we've seen month and a half preseason ADP 262, currently the 22nd overall hitter in Roto. And this won't surprise you. 38th best hitter and head to head points. So that number drops down quite a bit from Roto to point, so he just because he doesn't play every day, but hitting 284 20 homers, which is already a career high 68 RBI 4 steals and 871 OPS. And since May 25th, he is third among qualified hitters in OPS and WRC plus. It's just crazy stuff, man. And he's actually started against three of eight left handed pitchers since June 22nd. So progress, I guess like maybe he's starting to play a little bit more here. Scott, honestly, what's changed like he's hitting the ball harder, but I just give a lot of that credit to this new nationals regime. I just think that they're doing a fantastic job this year. What else has changed for Garcia? Where is he on the buy sell O meter? Yeah, this one is a tough one because I do buy into the improvement for the most part. Full air rate career high average max ex of velocity career highs, always been a good contact hitter. We talked about how good auto Lopez is expected batting averages. The least Garcia is even higher 97% tile. And this was from a guy who actually hit 282 two years ago. So like we know he has the capacity to hit for average, even if you don't dig into the data. But he does have that major, major disadvantage of sitting almost always against left handers. Maybe it isn't proving he said he started against three the last eight. I don't know. I don't know if that's enough to get excited about. I don't know if that really indicates they're changing their thinking. And he ended the first half the hottest he's ever been, impossibly hot. You have to. If you follow baseball for any length of time, you cannot argue the idea that he couldn't possibly sustain how hot he was heading into the break. Like that's going to have to slow down. And okay, you don't mind the platoon situation when he's that hot. Obviously, the production is, goes beyond any, any lost at bats. And more than makes up for it. But when the ebb and flow continues in terms of performance, are there going to be stretches where Garcia seems completely useless, especially in a head to head context? And I think there are. So is he better this year? Is he potentially a top 10 second baseman rest of season? I would say yes to both of those, but it still might not be a bad idea to trade him because he's been a possibly hot, just depends how much you can get. So I will put Luis Garcia at, if I put Auto Lopez at a five, I think that sounds right for Garcia too. Yeah. I had Auto Lopez at a four. I don't know. I kind of buy the changes that Luis Garcia has made. I do worry more about the playing time for him. Like Auto Lopez is going to play every day. But just in terms of like the quality of contact, the pulled Eric continuing to trend up for Luis Garcia, belief in the nationals and what they're doing. And I think maybe him moving from second base to first base. We don't talk about that too much, but just like he was a brutally awful defender at second base. And now he's gone to first base where he's like adequate. And I just wonder if maybe something like that where he doesn't have to worry about being so bad at defense all the time. If that could just help him focus on hitting at the plate as well. So I think I would give Luis Garcia a five. I think I, I think I trusted a little bit more than what Auto Lopez is doing, which is crazy to say, but I still wouldn't be opposed to trying to sell, to sell high on him. But I liked some of the underlying stuff more for Luis Garcia. Yeah. And I, I agree almost exactly with your, your break down there. It's just because there's that playing time disparity. I'm going to put them on equal terms. Yeah. Now I get that. Let's say our final break. I have a bunch of other names. I'm going to wrap it fire through the rest of the risers and then we'll get to some of the followers as well. We'll do that right after this. When we were in the back, we had to wait for people to come and see what they were doing. Nordea Private Banking was in the middle of the day, so he was able to get to the point where they were going to sell the money. Nordea Private Banking was in the middle of the day. Welcome back, fantasy baseball. Today, the biggest value changes from preseason up until now. And one of the biggest risers has been Miguel Vargas, who had a preseason ADP of 303. But much like Jordan Walker, you know, a former top prospect, it took a couple years from to figure it out. But it looks like he is figuring it out. He's currently the 24th overall hitter in Roto, the fifth best in head to head points, hitting 245, 21 homers, 64 runs, 59 RBI 11 steals, and 848 OPS. And he is walking a ton. The strike outside town even more. His ex-woba on contact this season is up nearly 100 points year over year. So he's just doing a lot more damage on balls and play. It took a while, Scott. But I know back in the day, you were a pretty big fan of the prospect, Miguel Vargas. Now it's coming to fruition. He's made changes to the game. I get that. But where is he on the buy cell, O-meter? He's pretty high. He's pretty high. I have to say, I hope I don't get fooled again. Because I was very high, famously, very high on Miguel Vargas going into his rookie season. That's much of somebody like me can be famous anyway. And it was bad. It didn't go well. And it was one of those situations that was way back in 2022, I think, or 2023. I can't remember which was the rookie year, officially. But it was one of those situations where they hadn't implemented stack haste to AAA yet. And so he comes up and his average ex of velocity of 86.8 miles per hour is a rookie. And it's like, if I knew he was hitting the ball that weekly at AAA, I would not have bought in so hard. But he's not doing that anymore. It's not 86.8. It's 90.6. And you know, you look at how did so many of those blue J's hitters improve last year, Dalton Vargas shown George Springer, average bat speed, and especially fast swing rate. Enormous gains there for those blue J's hitters that they haven't sustained this year. But, you know, let's worry about what's happening right now. Miguel Vargas average bat speed of three and a half miles per hour this year in his fast swing rate has gone from 12% to 45%. A huge increase. It's fast enough to keep stealing bases. He just had the loudest moment of the all-star game, very long home run. I think I got to buy it. I think I got to go, man, do I want to go higher than Jordan Walker on that? I think I want to amend my Jordan Walker to an eight and also put Miguel Vargas at an eight. Because I view them very similarly as former top prospects that are now figuring it out. And maybe they might not be as good, but I think they're still going to be really, really good in the second half. I think I want to go nine on Miguel Vargas. I love it. He's underperforming his expected stats as good as he's been and not by a small margin. Yep. All right. So again, that was Miguel Vargas. I have one, two, three, four, five, six, seven pictures. So I will just like. How much does this podcast start we devoting to this? Well, this is the rest of the podcast is the rest of it, right? This is the podcast, but we got 20, we got 20 minutes, three minutes a pop. We could do this. Scott, I also have one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine. 10 value followers. So I have 16 names left on the run down. - All right. - So I don't know exactly how we can do this here, but I will just quickly read off the name and I will give you a number and we can just love whatever. We'll try and make it as quick as possible. But Max Meyer, his preseason ADP was 282. He's the 11th best pitcher in Roto. He's tied for 14th among starting pitchers in points per game. And if you look at what's changed for him this year, he's using his sweeper a lot more. His swinging strike rate is up. He's not getting hit as hard. His home run per nine are down the season as well. The only thing I worry about and is really the innings for Max Meyer because he only threw 64 and 2/3 last year. He's already up to 108. He hasn't thrown 100 since 2021. So I think there would be, I would expect regression just in terms of like the overall numbers, like the ERA stuff. And I also worry about him kind of getting pseudo, not shut down, but just kind of limited in the second half. So by cello meter on Max Meyer, I think I would put it at like a three or a four. - Yeah, I think the innings is the only concern here. Not the only concern. He is overachieving a little bit by the ERA estimators, but like the gains are legitimate. - And he was a top prospect too. That's now figuring out. - Yeah. - He has figured it out. His fastballs weren't very good in either version of it. And so he's faded them for two very good breaky balls. And I think that explains it almost entirely. But he is going to come up against it innings-wise as they say in the second half. And so I'll put it at a five. - All right, next up we have Justin Robleski. His preseason ADP was 650, basically nine exist and picked up mostly as a free agent off of waivers. He's currently the 14th best pitcher in Roto. He's averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game. That is fifth best in head to point leagues. 269 ERA 102 Whip. The strikeouts, not great, 6.6. They have been getting better. 1.8 walks per nine. What's change? I think mostly just given the opportunity to start. Obviously lots of injuries in the Dodgers rotation. Like there always is. And he has simplified his pitch, makes more forcing fastballs, more sliders this year. But Scott, you mentioned this recently. His strikeout rate has jumped and it's coincided with his velocity. So in his first seven starts, he averaged 93.6 miles per hour on his fastball, 4.8 Kper-9, 7% swinging strike rate. His next eight starts, that fastball velocity's up 1.5 miles per hour, 8.3 Kper-9, 10.6% swinging strike rate, by cellometer on Justin Robleski. - So not only has there been enormous improvement in the swing and miss, but the ground ball rate at the same time has jumped about 10 percentage points. Going from a bad ground ball rate to a good ground ball rate. So those velocity gains, which by the way, it was up way, it was up a lot again in his all-star appearance. Granted, he was airing it out for an inning, but still. A couple of weeks ago, I probably would have put Robleski at a 1 here. He seemed like the most obvious overachiever. But if he can sustain this velocity jump, which he's done for seven starts, I might go six. - And he's doing it with a great defense behind him, one of the best in baseball, and maybe the best offense in baseball too. So the only thing I worry about is, if Blake's no entire glass now return, like is his spot in the rotation absolutely cemented for the rest of the season? - No, it's the Dodgers. Only on the motos is. And Otani's, I guess. - Yeah. - So I just worry about that kind of factor in as well, but it's a bit of an unknown, 'cause you just, you don't know when A, when those guys are gonna be back and like will they suffer any setbacks, like they both dealt with a bunch of injuries and stuff. But yeah, I'd probably put Robleski at a, I think of five. - Four or five for Justin Robleski. Next up, I have Parker Messick, who had a preseason ADP of 294. He is currently the 15th best pitcher in Roto, 15.2 fantasy points per game. That is tied for SP 19. Honestly, I think it's just a breakout starting pitcher. I don't know that much has changed, Scott. His fastball velocity is up one mile per hour, year over year. He's got a nasty fastball change of combination. I don't really worry about the ending. So he got to 138 in the third last year. On the buy cello meter for Parker Messick, I think I'd probably put him right at an eight with Jordan Walker and Miguel Vargas. I'm buying it. Yeah, I'm trying to think here. So there were, there was, there were a couple starts there recently where his velocity was up and it seemed like the strikeouts were spiking again. And then that's, that's, it's reverted back to his usual velocity and the last couple turns. The swinging strike rate is pretty ordinary. The strike outrate pretty ordinary. The walk rate pretty ordinary. A little bit of average, maybe contact quality is good. He excels at that. But I think he's overachieving a little bit. Like I don't think Parker Messick is gonna collapse and you're gonna want to drop him or anything like that. But I think, I think it might be a good time to cash in, especially since he's, he's technically a rookie, right? Yeah, I think, yeah, that sounds right. So I don't think it'd be a bad time to catch in. What, what number did you put it at? I put an N8. Well, you know, he does have a 273 ERA. So that will probably come up a little bit. Let's say seven. I still mostly buy it, but I, he probably won't be a 273 ERA 107 whip pitcher in the second half. I'm gonna go five. I'm gonna put on the same as Max Meyer. All right, next up everyone's favorite. Eduardo Rodriguez. He can't keep getting away with it. But he does. And he also just threw a scoreless inning in the All-Star game to add insult to injury here. No insult, no injury. If you picked him up in the first half, 229 ERA 117 whip, it comes with 6.2 K, 293.1 walks, 294, 115, 453 X5, 506 XERA, a 7.9% swinging tricrate. Great luck with Babib Homer's left on pace percentage. Maybe he just sustains it for a whole year, Scott, or maybe he has an ERA over five in the second half. I, what helps him is the D-Bax defense is elite. They are top six in defensive run saved, out above average, and fielding run value. So that helps. I still would have this at like a, I think he's one, one or two. Yeah, I have to go one. I have to go most extreme with Eduardo Rodriguez. And obviously, I'll keep monitoring it to see if I can detect some reason for the improvement. Like I did with Justin Reblesky. I'm open to having my mind change. Rodriguez is 33, well, a lot more established than Reblesky. And so I, I doubt we're gonna see any new tricks there. Yeah, he just seems to be overachieving dramatically in every way. Kind of reminds me of that season, Martín Perez had for the Rangers as a 31 year old and 22. One hundred percent, Scott. That's the same thing I think about all the time. Yeah, 280-90-ARA for Martín Perez, who has a career 437-ERA. And you look back at what happened in that season. Yeah, he finished with the 280-90-ARA. It was a great season for fantasy for everyone who invested in him. And second half, he had a 135 whip. He did still have a 318-ERA. He didn't crash as hard as I thought he did. But it is possible to fake it. Well, last two months were kind of shaky. The last two months were pretty shaky. You can pull it off for a whole season. It's incredibly difficult. But you can, you can fake the system for an entire year. It's just, it's really, really hard to do. So, yeah, even that era of Martín Perez, his XERA was 362. ERA's XERA is over 5 right now. Yeah. Yeah, so even a more obvious regression candidate. But to your point about you can't sustain it over a full season. One of the things I always say about regression is, okay, it may be inevitable, but you can't really put a timeline on it. It could happen in two weeks. It could happen in two months. Usually it doesn't happen as long as two years, but maybe one year. And obviously, it eventually hit from our team Perez. And I think it will for Rodriguez as well. If you can sell him for, for something of real value, I think you do it. All right, these last two scouting, I'm gonna give you a double dip. And if you asked me two weeks ago, I probably would have had both of them at a nine. Now, I'm not so sure. Braxton Ashcraft and Bryce Miller. Braxton Ashcraft, preseason ADP, was 239. He's currently the 26th best pitcher in Roto, 16.1 fantasy points per game. But allowed five or more earned runs in three of his final seven starts. And during that stretch, a 489 ERA, a 127 whip. And his ground ball rate has been trending down a lot. I just wonder if the pirates have pushed him too much in the first half. Last year it was 118 total innings. He's already up to 113 and a third. And then with Bryce Miller, he was outstanding outside of his team. his last start before the break. The velocity has been up across the board and he's looked like one of the best pictures in fantasy. But that last start, it was four run runs over five innings, four walks of three strikeouts. He's allowed to have a bad start, but his fastball velocity was down 1.2 miles per hour, the splitter down 1.5, his sweeper was down 2 miles per hour. And last year he had bone spurs in his elbow. So that's just kind of floating around in the back of my mind, the way that it's floating around in his elbow right now. It's got where our Brexit has craft and Bryce Miller on the buy cello meter. This is a difficult exercise with pictures because of exactly what you're talking about here. I mean, they're particularly young ones that don't have established track records, the exact type that we're likely to talk about here. All of them are very much at risk of wearing down in the second half for reasons that you may not even have any hint of it. You just have to know intuitively that it's going to happen, or it's likely to happen. So I don't think I could put any picture. We talk about here at a 10 or a 9, maybe even an 8. And we are seeing some concerns there with Miller and Ashcraft. I don't know, as you say, like, I don't know that Miller isn't already heard. Hopefully he's not. But one start with the kind of indicators that you're talking about is enough to raise the suspicion. So I think Miller and Ashcraft are really good. And if it's just a question of how good are these pictures, if you're starting fresh, how much do you trust them in the immediate term, then I probably would put them like an 8 or a 9. But that's not really the question. We have to consider all those other contexts that you talked about. And so I don't know. I might go seven for Ashcraft and six for Miller. One more start with the velocity down for Miller. The only drops to like a three. I think I would put them both at a six right now. I don't want to be too harsh. Man, it's like that velocity with Bryce Miller. We were talking about him so glowingly and rightfully so. It's just like, you know, your head starts wandering a little bit about that velocity. And yeah, Ashcraft with just the workload. And, you know, do they limit him at some point in the second half? I could see that happening as well. I think assuming health, I think both guys will still be good. But maybe not like the top 20, top 24 starting pictures, we have been ranking them to be for most of the first half. So the biggest value followers, obviously, I'm going to have to group a bunch of these together but we will do that. And reminders of players who struggled in the first half last season and then turned it up big time in the second half. Michael Harris, his OPS jumped from 551 to 845. Brian Reynolds from 656 to 816. Christian Walker from 660 to 799 at William Domes from 680 to 828. And big ERA improvements. Sandial Contra from 722 to 333. Luis Severino from 516 to 310. Kevin Gossmann from 419 to 281. And Gavin Williams from 370 to 218. So again, just examples of pretty well established names that just had brutal first halves and then turned it on big time in the second half of last season. And with the hitter Scott, I will lump all these together. Kyle Tucker, Gunner Henderson, Vlad Jr., Austin Riley, Haraldo Pardomo, Jaren Durin. Is that enough names for you? That's a lot of names. But if we're just talking about what went wrong so far. Kyle Tucker, like, yes, on the fringes, it looks like everything has just gotten a little bit worse. And perhaps the injuries are just piling up. I cannot figure out his home road splits this year. He's just been god awful in Dodger Stadium. And I don't know why. It's a good place to hit. It's a good place for power for left handed bats. It just has not worked for Kyle Tucker at home this season. Gunner Henderson, his quality of contact is just way down this year. His bat speed has also dropped like one mile per hour. Each of the past three years, his barrel rate has been trending down. He dealt with that shoulder injury last year. Like, maybe it's just still a problem and he hasn't really told anybody about it. Flat junior, the power way down. He only has six home runs at the break. He has more steals than homers. His quality of contact is way down. He's dealt with some back tightness on and off. So just like is Vlad completely healthy? I kind of just think he isn't. Austin Riley has just completely plummeted. He's hitting 207, nine homers. Six steals, that's nice. But a 618 OPS, he's striking out a ton. He's dealt with a lot of injuries. The past couple of years, like maybe those have just taken their toll on Austin Riley. Porto Moe, you mentioned his name earlier. I just think last year was an outlier. And his OPS right now is 710. Last year was 851. The two years prior, it was 718 and 712. So it kind of just looks like he's the hitter. He was the two years prior to last year. And then Jared Iran, he's hitting just 194. And his strike out rate is all the way up to 30%. His quality of contact is down. He's usually bad against lefties this year. He's also bad against righties. Just bad against everybody. And he's older than you think. So it could just be, you know, Jared and Durran is hitting that wall. So I have six names here, Scott. Durran, Harald O'Pardomo, Austin Riley, Vlad Jr. Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Tucker, who are 1, 2, 3, maybe none, that you would be confidently trying to buy low on heading into the second half. I don't know that I could say I'd confidently be buying low on any of them. But I can sort them into ones I still have a lot of hope for and ones that I don't have much hope for at all. And it's 3 and 3. The three that I don't have much hope for anymore are Austin Riley, Jared Durran, and Harald O'Pardomo. Pardomo, I think, is the easiest to say of those. It was just an aberration last year, Riley-- he just hasn't been the same since his personal hitting coach was died tragically. I think it was a car accident, if I'm remembering right. He just hasn't been the same. And there may be other reasons for it, but it's hard to look past that one. And I still think there's a lot of talent there. But it took a lot to extract it in the first place. And we haven't seen a performance at that level for a few years and it's been a continual decline since then. So I held out hope for a long time. It's hard to have much at this point, though. So the other three that I do have confidence and or do have a lot of hope for still are archile Tucker, Gunner Henderson, and Vladimir Guerrero. Of Vladimir Guerrero would be a slam dunk, if not for what we've learned about his back recently that he's playing through a back issue, a kept him out of the All-Star game. I think that's why it even came up, right? Had you heard about it before then? Yeah, because he had a few games that he set out and they set it was for the back injury. So it's been-- Just an instinct like a big deal. Right. And it may not be that. Like Vladimir Guerrero, it's so interesting how tying him with Fernando Tatees that they both have this trait of OK. At the very best, they looked like the best player in fantasy, right? In the year where everything went the best it possibly could, each of them had that. But for most of their careers, they feel like mild disappointments, like still early round producers, but not living up to their expected stats. And the reason why both Fernando Tatees and Vladimir Guerrero, why that's been the case, is because they don't pull the ball in the air well at all. And the expected stats don't seem to account for that very well. And so it's interesting to me that I've always tied those two together in that way. And they both just so happened to have started out miserably this year with their home run production. We've seen Fernando Tatees pick it up a little recently. And I think if we let things play out, Vladimir Guerrero will too. But I don't know how much the back is inhibiting him. That's a variable I don't have any way to account for. Just knowing that it's there. It's just a mystery variable. Kyle Tucker, yeah, everything seems basically fine. I don't know if it's the pressure of living up to the contract or with being with the Dodgers and all the expectations that comes with that now. Or if it's just some fluky thing that's happened for half a season. But the track record is considerable and very consistent. And again, the underlying data doesn't seem that far off. So I think he's going to figure it out. But no, obviously no guarantees. And then Gunnar Henderson, I think, is trending the right way. Remember that the start of the year he was striking out of ton. And the pole array was way up. So my theory then was that he was overcompensating for the 16-homer season underachieving with power. OK, I'm going to-- I'm going to hit home runs this year for sure. I'm going to pull it in the air more. And it just, the strikeout rate spiked and it just seemed like a disaster. The strikeout rate has dropped off considerably since that first month. And the pullout rate has remained high. But you know, the numbers haven't fixed themselves really during that time. In fact, you know, most of his home reproduction came in April when he was striking out of ton. So I don't see the same red flags that I saw early on for Gunner Henderson, but I don't see much improvement either. So you know, he's very young, very talented. I think it's just growing pains, but you know, he want to be the first player in his mid-twenties to fall off the map. I just think it's way too early given where he was coming into the year to say that after half a season. Yeah, the strikeout rate by month for Gunner Henderson, it was 30% in March/April, 22% in May, down to 15% in June and then 18% in July. So it has gotten much better as the season has gone on. And of the three, I agree with you, by the way, Gunner Henderson, Vlad and Tucker. Gunner Henderson has the least going against him right now. Just he's the youngest of the, I think he's younger than Vlad, but he's 25 years old. He doesn't really have an underlying injury that we know about. Obviously Vlad has the back. Tucker, I mean, he's probably healthy, but he has dealt with more injuries over the past couple of years. So just given the youth and the way that Gunner Henderson's career was trending before just that injury, the year-old season last year, I would most confidently buy in on him for the second half. But to be fair, there isn't too much in the underlying numbers just in terms of quality of contact or expected stats that scream you should be buying Gunner Henderson outside of just like his eight and his pedigree and what he's done in the past. And I think that counts for more. I think a lot of times just because we want to quantify things, we want to have answers for players who are this established and this talented when the data is against them. We can make too much of that instead of just trusting in them to be who they are, to get back to being who they are. And I think time has shown that it's a mistake when you overvalue the data for that kind of player. And so I don't want to do that for Henderson. And if other people are, if you can use that as an opportunity to buy low, I think it's a good idea. But I can't sit here and tell you, he's going to hit 290 with 20 homers in the second half. I don't know. But I think it's, I think you should expect improvement just because he's Gunner Henderson. Back to Austin Riley and Jaron Durand for a second. Austin Riley is still 88% rostered and Jaron Durand is 91% rostered. Do you think those guys are droppable in head to head style rosters where there's no extra cornering fielder? There's only three outfielders. What do you think about dropping Austin Riley and Jaron Durand? Yeah, I mean, hitters are pretty disposable in that format. It might be harder to find a third basement than an outfielder. And if you're, you know, starting some Brooks Lee type at third base over Riley, I mean, it might turn out better, but I don't know that the upside is enough for Lee to discard Riley yet. I don't know. This is even the season. Maybe it is. Somebody asked me earlier, they have Royce Lewis and they said Austin Riley is on waivers. I don't think I would make that swap. If I have Royce Lewis on my team, I think I would just stick with him. I think I'd still pick up Riley in that situation because I still have a lot of questions about Lewis. He's bought bottom line. He's probably good since coming back from the miners. Bottom line is I really couldn't criticize anybody for dropping Riley in a format like you say where there's no extra cornering field spot to fill. Yeah. I do have four pitching followers throughout the course of the season as well. I'll quickly mention Brian. Woo. Preseason 80 P was 35.2 as the SP seven. He's currently the 53rd overall pitcher in Roto 13.8 fantasy points per game. The ERA is elevated. Just things on the fringes here like his left on base percentages down a lot that seems kind of fluky. The thing that stands out most is just like these home road splits are crazy for Brian Blue. Like in his career, there is a difference to 50 ERA at home 422 on the road this year 210 ERA at home 628 on the road. I have to imagine that's just going to naturally get better in the second half. Freddie Peralta. He was drafted as a top 15 starting pitcher. He is a 466 ERA a 144 whip. The case are down. The walks are up. His bad up is up quite a bit. His swinging strike rate is down. But his 382 XERA is not far off from where it was last year. Perhaps a buying opportunity there. Frembrow Valdez. He was drafted as a top 20 starting pitcher. Has not been a great first season with the Tigers. The last start before the break was much better, but his ground ball rate has been trending down the past couple of years. We know so much is dependent on that curveball hit the with rate on that curveball. Just down a lot year over year. Four Valdez. I included Bubba Chandler here just because he was a breakout hopeful. Maybe he can figure it out in the second half, but the walks have just been untenable this year over a five walks per nine. Last year it was 1.2 walks per nine and it's time in the majors. But that I think very clearly was an outlier. You look at the rest of Bubba Chandler's minor league career and walks were always an issue. So it just feels like that's who he is until he can learn how to throw more strikes. But of the three higher in names, I think Brian Wu is like the easiest by-low right now if you even can. What do you think about Peralta and Framber Valdez? Would you be trying to buy low on those two? I agree on Wu. I think that's an easy call. Peralta and Valdez would I be trying to buy low on them? Well, they're both established workhorse types. Maybe that's a funny term to use for Peralta whose outings tend to run short, but he's durable. He's going to be pitching late into the season as far as we can predict these things for pictures he is. And that's going to be a question for a lot of pictures on your roster. And like they both have established a track record, long track record of much better production than they've delivered this year. Unless there are clear signs of decline, mainly I'm talking velocity drops, you should bet on the track record. When it's that long and it's that consistent, you should bet on the track record for Valdez and Peralta. So in the strictest sense, I would call them both by lows, but I am not expecting Peralta to be the same. I think he's worse now. If you can have both of those ideas in your head at once, yes, his track record is such and his velocity is still at a point where if you can get him for cheap, you probably should. And there's also my hunch. He's just not as good anymore. My hunch, he's not as good as he more is like we're used to seeing 11 K per nine from this guy and he's below a strikeout per inning. And his slider has fallen off over the past couple of years, which is weird, you know? Yeah. And it was fine. He was fine without it last year, but it's not working this year. Obviously. So I would, maybe the best way to put it is I would not be shocked if Peralta looked like Peralta again in the second half. I wouldn't even be surprised. It would be okay. Yeah, that's, that's what you should expect from Peralta. But there's also this nagging feeling of, yeah, I think I think Peralta's done being that guy. I can't put a number on this Scott, but what if he gets traded away from the meds? Getting away and not trying to pick on meds fans, but look, I think meds fans would tell you themselves like it's been a terrible, awful no good season for the New York meds. We all know that. But what if just like getting that stink, getting away from the New York meds and getting traded to another team like I could just see a change of scenery by default, just helping Peralta? I think it would, my opinion there would be swayed by who acquired him. If the brewers got him, bring him back. Yeah, obviously that would be a good sign that they don't see the same red flags I'm seeing here. The Dodgers, got him, the rays, got him, the Marlins, got him, frankly, not that I see the Marlins being big buyers. But that would, that would say a lot. I should comment on Framber Valdez also. So I would be lying if I said my faith wasn't diminished. How could it not be? But I've also seen the same basic story play out with Framber Valdez a lot in recent years where he doesn't have the curveball for a long stretch and then he does. And you mentioned the whiff rate on that is way down. If it remains down, it's going to be a problem. But seen it enough time before, he gets the feel for, he gets the right break on it and suddenly he's getting double digits strikeouts every game. And I want to be the least bit surprised if that happened. It's obvious. obviously just kind of a blind faith kind of move. So I wouldn't want to buy him in a way that shows the utmost conviction. But if the price is low enough, I would absolutely buy. It sounds like just based on comparing the last two players, you're more likely to buy on Frembrubbez than Freddie Paulson. I am. Yeah. I would say I am. I think the upside is higher. And I think he's more likely to reach it. But I think they're both if the price is right worth buying on. Quick thought on Bubba Chandler. I think there's more from like a keeper or dynasty league. But do you think there's a good time to buy in that type of setting for Bubba Chandler or have the walks just completely kind of scared you off of them long term? No, I think it's a good time to buy. It's too early to make any long term judgments on him. But I can understand if I can understand how the person who hasn't been a dynasty league stashed him for a long time and was thrilled that he was finally going to get a pay off this year. That's me. If he was so frustrated that he was just like I'm going to get out of this while I still can. And you end up buying him for $75 cents on the dollar. I would do that with Chandler. All right. Well, it went longer than we thought. But I thought that was pretty successful. I thought it was a pretty good exercise. We are going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on Apple and Spotify. And we can do back again tomorrow. Bye. Bye.