Big Ten Win Totals Part 2: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, USC & MORE! | 2026 CFB Futures

[MUSIC PLAYING] Welcome back to the Cover Three Podcast with your host, Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli, Danny Cannell, and Bob Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from National Signing Day to the National Championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the Cover Three Podcast. And welcome back to the Cover Three Podcast. Here on CBS Sports, that's Tom Fernelli, that's Danny Cannell. I'm Chip Patterson, coming to you live at youtube.com/coverthree. And everywhere you get your podcast on a man, thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat, aka the Cover Three tailgate, where they are. They're talking about Penn State. Certainly it is just only because Penn State is on this run down as one of the teams we are going to talk about here in the second half of the Big Ten. Yes, Ohio State all the way through Wisconsin. We're going in alphabetical order. Big Ten, preview part two, I am positive. I haven't been able to look further into the tailgate, but I'm positive that all of the conversation this morning certainly is only about the Penn State football team and definitely not about any other stories around Penn State. Probably for sure. DK, Miss you on Monday, how are we doing? I am fantastic. It's good to be back. We were concerned about one of our colleagues, brothers, who was in a fraternity at Penn State. I haven't got the all clear just yet, but I will work on it. I'm going to work on my sources to see if we can clear that up to make sure, what was it, 12 or 16? How many were in the ring that were on the. Hi. I didn't tell you. Hey, let's say anti Italian discrimination just coming after us, 1945 all over again. The White Out game has never, has never rung in a more clear or true, clear or true way. We look forward to seeing what happens on the field as well. Yes, if you are just tuning in, we already did tackle the first half of the Big 10, as well as the other three power conferences with our win totals. But that is because our very, very best picks for the win totals are all going to be coming up tomorrow Thursday, 11 a.m. Eastern in the win totals locks. That will be the 2026 season debut of our world famous award winning locks jingle. But today, today, I still have to ask you gentlemen, y'all ready to lock it up, excuse me. Y'all ready to count them up. Yeah. As much as I think that the under is a safe play, like I can't even count them up. Y'all know how many kids are going to win this fall. I can't fathom who wins. How many kids are going to win this fall? I just can't. I don't see it. It's not on there. It's not a schedule I'm looking at. Unless there's another schedule somewhere. No, no warm-ups here, baby. No, no JV. We're going right to the top to the preseason AP Top 25 number one team, the Ohio State Buckeyes. As we take a look at a team that we've talked about a lot that we've talked to, Julian Saiyan, Jeremiah Smith, and Ryan Day, all within the course of the last month or so. It's pretty simple. Is this team going to be able to capitalize on what is another opportunity for Ohio State to go and compete for a national championship? You've got a national title winning coach, Heisman Finalist quarterback, one of the best players in the game. Then as we start to check in on fall camp, we're starting to hear some names, linebackers, defensive backs, guys that are stepping up in a way that answer some of the questions of those NFL players that are gone. Ryan Day jumped all over me, and it continues to be a message that he's sending that when you've got Carson Heisman, Luke Montgomery, no kind of the experience along the offensive line. That's something that we should be tracking, but maybe also Austin Searveld with a little minor injury in camp. Could be back by the end of the week, but something to put on your notepad. But they play three national title hopefuls and two of them are on the road. So that's how you've got the AP Top 25 number one preseason team with a win total at Draft King Sportsbook of nine and a half. Now, the over is heavily juiced at minus 180. If you wanted to get on the other side and try to play that, 10 and a half would be at minus 200 to the under plus 160 to the over. But for the graphic, for our record keepings, we are picking Ohio State at nine and a half. Tom, thoughts here on the buck eyes. Where do you start to either have your confidence, your concern, your pivot points in the schedule? I mean, you look at that schedule as we've got it on the screen now. Lot of tricky spots. You're at Texas, obviously in week two. You have to go on the road for Indiana. You get the buy, but then you're flying across the country to play USC on the road. You have Oregon the week after that back at home. You've got Michigan at home to finish the year. Like you look at it and you're like, man, there's quite a few games on there where Ohio State could slip up, maybe have some trouble. But then you think through history. And do you guys know what the last season, non-shortened COVID season 2020 at Ohio State finished a regular season with fewer than 10 wins? 2012. Nope. 2010. Nope. 1947. 2011 chip was just hovering right around it. When a year after Truffle had to sit down because he, you know, players got tattoos for free. Can you imagine the heaven forbid? Oh, and Luke Pickle stepped in. They went six and seven that year and then Urban Meyer took over and went 12 and O immediately and the rest is, you know, history. Ryan Day and Urban Meyer have never lost or won one fewer than 10 games in a regular season since taking over. So when the win totals nine and a half and you look at the history of this program, it's hard to justify going under. I'm not. I think. I think some of the concern like Ohio State started at number one in the AP poll. I'm a little surprised by how heavy of a number one they are compared, like when you look at the first place, though, it's considering how much I think parity is there between those top seven teams, but like, you know, I think a little too much skepticism is placed on this team for how it ended last year, losing to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship who by the way went on to win the national title and losing to Miami in it and who by the way went on to play for the national title. So I still think that this is one of the best programs in the country. I think that they are the better team on the field, damn near every single one of these weeks. So I feel like ten and two is probably the worst thing that's going to happen. I'm not saying nine and three is impossible, but as far as betting is concerned, I can't not go over here. I'll also look this up because I was curious just for Ryan Day. And I was like, oh, they haven't even been close to the three losses, but I'm not running to the window either at minus 180 to go over nine and a half, you know, and like, I just, I think from a value play, if you wanted to take a flyer, if there was ever a time for there to be the first time since 2011 to have three losses, this is it. And we are in. And I know the Big Ten is sort of behind the SEC with the parity stuff, right? The SEC, the money is kind of flow downstream a little bit deeper than it has in the Big Ten. But I do think it is starting to get better. We talked about it the Big Ten media days. I think that Big Ten is deeper than they get credit for. Now, Ohio State still has, you know, one of the best rosters in the league. But you mentioned, I threw an Iowa on the road as a tough game. And I do, I do look at last year's ending. And those were incredible teams that they lost to. But I do look at this defense and I say, well, is this defense, which last year's defense was historically great, one of the best defenses we've seen. I think this is a big Julian saying, can you take that next step? And I think he should. And he's got your, you know, it's got your, my, on the outside, he should be fine. But I think from a value play under nine and a half is not awful at plus one 50. Like, I think that's pretty good value. So I'm going to go under again, I don't think you'll hear tomorrow's lockspot. But I think from a value play, and I also think they could be one of the teams that could be in at nine and three, depending on how they beat, and yeah. So like I think it is more about the schedule and the questions on defense for me. Why I'm going to go ahead and take a flyer on Ohio State under nine and a half. How I do think that this year, there will be at least one nine and three SEC team that gets in, but how funny would it be if at the end of the year, no nine and three SEC team gets in and Ohio State becomes the first one. Right. It could happen. It could. They beat Texas. And it's hard to fight because I'm, those are one of the losses that I'm looking at. That's most likely. If you're going under, you're probably thinking they lose that Texas. I've been in early in the summer. I maybe wasn't always great at threading the different predictions that I was saying on different platforms. And now I feel like I'm much more in line as they're all having to come one after the other. On Tuesday, CBS Sports Network show, when I did not have Ohio State getting the buy and when I had Ohio State a little bit further down in the bracket, it's with a 10 and 2 projection. So I'm thinking that they are going to have to learn some things about themselves, that they are going to end up taking a couple lumps. But as you spoiler alert, I'm also going to be picking Ohio State as my national champion. Because we are in a world in college football where you can have those two things be true at once that I think with some of the turnover that Ohio State has, they might catch a couple of losses and have to figure themselves out. But by the end of the regular season and by the start of the playoff, boy, it's going to be tough for me to be betting against the buck eyes. So with all the turnover that they have from all over the world. All the NFL players that are gone and all those challenges, I could see a couple of losses. I do not see three, throw me officially on the over for Ohio State at nine and a half. I think I've got them 10 and two and as a dangerous, dangerous team that you do not want to be facing in that CFP bracket. Oh, Budheads. Budheads. All right. Budheads want to know, of course, as always, Bud Elliott is on the over. Budheads unite says, says Chris Allen in the tailgate, Bud, Bud is not here. He's probably Apple picking with the family. Obviously. That's what his graphic told you when to do it and it's at August 19th. It's at August 19th. No need to be on that show. I will say I would bet like Bud's part of Bud's reasoning is and it's what he shared with the SCC is, you know, like the SCC he thinks the better teams are going to be the ones to take advantage of the nine game schedule while the bottom teams get hammered. And I would bet that, but he's saying that's the same thing that's happening here. Gotcha. Oh, one final note here, Tom. I just pulled this up because I couldn't remember if I had it right. I was not surprised. It was so heavy with the AP voters and the reason why is because Ohio State was the AP's overwhelming number one for 14 of 16 rankings weeks last year. You know, they just click, click, click, as soon as they beat Texas in week one, all the way until they lost to Indiana in the big 10 championship game, they were the number one team in the country. So some of that, I think, helps build in to trying to make a decision between those seven teams, all competing for the top spot. One of which is those Oregon ducks, preseason AP number two. And as we start to take a look at the ducks, another team that we have very much enjoyed starting to break down. I want to look maybe even a little bit deeper because this is an offensive line that lost a couple, I mean, Emmanuel Pregnant, Alex Harky. We've lost some real important players to the NFL draft. We've got Dave Iuli kind of working his way back from a torn tricep in the orange bowl last year, poncho holding it down all American there at center. It really has been described as the cultural heartbeat of the locker room. But the reason why I mentioned this is because the defensive lines got a lot of love. The offensive line needs to be able to match that. And if Oregon's great at the lines of scrimmage, boy, they check out a basically everywhere else. It's a wide receiver room. We've talked about very excited to see that group fully healthy. The secondary and defensive backs had even the star freshmen were showing up near the end of the year. Dan landing so excited about that group. They do have not as many of the same tests, but very similar at least in terms of the buck eyes in that they do have to play Ohio State, so they play each other. They also have to play against USC that game on the road. They also draw in Michigan, though that game is at home and the rivalry game against Washington. DK, how do you think the ducks are going to do? How many games does Dan landing win this fall? Again, this is one where I think this is a really good number. I think it's priced pretty correctly. I'm going to go over and some of it has to do with the schedule. That's why I went under on Ohio State, schedules brutal. This one, they do have the two tough road games. I think they could drop one of those. Obviously, Michigan and Washington are tricky games for them, but I think this team, you guys know I feel about them since the end of last season. I think this is a national championship contender. I think they have one of the best defensive lines in the country. My big question mark is Drew Maranger taking over for Will Stein as the offensive play caller. I'm more staying in-house, keeping everything similar as far as concepts, what they want to do. I think this team is going to go over. I think there's good value to it plus 100, so I'm going to go over the 10 and a half for Oregon. Yeah, I'm on the over too. It's just, there's so much talent on the roster now. I will make, as Danny mentioned, the coordinator changes we'll see, but I feel like that's a problem earlier in the season. Then it will be later in the season and you look at the start of the schedule. I don't see boys, the Oklahoma State or Portland State giving them much of a run. Basically, your new coordinators get three games to ramp themselves up and get ready for that USC game. Offensively, there's just so much damn talent. I think the offensive line is good and then obviously the skill positions, it's incredible. We talk about Evan Stewart and Ducorian Moore, but McClellan, I think Jaylen Lotz, a five-star freshman that came in, they got Gatlin Bear and another freshman coming in. They say a very deep position. They brought in Jamari Johnson, you know, it tied in to replace Kenyansa Deek. I think they're going to be fine there. We know they got Rayola as the backup at quarterback. I feel like if you look at this squad and you're looking for a reason why they finish under and things maybe go a different direction, if they do suffer some injuries on the defensive line, like it is the first four guys, the starters at every four of those spots are really good, but they did lose depth into portal to other schools, guys that were looking for starting gigs elsewhere. While they have talent behind their starters right now, they don't have as much experience. There's a lot of sophomores and freshmen in that two and three deep, so that could be something that hurts them if they suffer injuries there, but even then, I still think this offense is going to be really damn good. I don't know how much it will ultimately matter. It might hurt their ability to win a national title. I don't think it'll hurt their ability to win most of these games. Over. Over. There's no Indiana on this schedule, and while Washington is always going to be a fight, that game being in Austin, and I just think the ducks have less questions than the Huskies do. And as you'll find out a little later, I'm very bullish on the Huskies. USC Oregon was fun. I had to go back and look at it. Only two games between Dan landing and Lincoln Riley at their current spot. Both ducks wins, nine points, 15 points, and maybe not always that close. One of those games where they just kind of kept them at arm's length, go tip for tat score when you can. Don't have to make a crazy Michigan coming to your place. If you were going to play Illinois or Michigan State at a time where Illinois and Michigan State were at a different point in their own program cycles, maybe I would look at that. I see 11 in one. I absolutely agree with you. I counted up. That is another one that goes over, and no one's going to like this, but but heads, you got to ride with everybody, all right? You got to ride with Danny, you got to ride with Tom, you got to ride with me, but also on the over 10 and a half wins, ducks fly together, and we're flying high. 11 and 1 or 12 and 0 is the projection here from the Cover 3 podcast. Now turning our attention to the Penn State, Knitney Lions, which have taken an interesting position. A couple teams across the country where I think this comes up where I ask myself and I'll ask y'all, do you like the team or do you like the schedule? Okay. Do you like the higher from a big picture perspective of Matt Campbell? Like, hey, Matt Campbell, that's a good coach. I think that's a good coach for Penn State, but do you like Matt Campbell from a win-now perspective? Now, all the players that are coming over from Iowa State, all the players that are coming in from the portal in general, is this a team that wins its way into the top 25, or do they wind up in the top 25 just because they've got more talent than most of the teams on their schedule? Over under win total, and check it out at Draft King Sportsbook is at eight and a half wins. Over heavily juiced there, Danny, which way are you going? You're one Matt Campbell. I'm going over. I think there's a reason why it's minus 166. They've got a preseason to get warmed up with the non-conference slate. That's one of the weakest in the big 10, Marshall Temple Buffalo, then they have a nice home game against Wisconsin, you know, to kind of break in the home crowd. And I do think Wisconsin's going to be better, but I still think Penn State is better than they are. Northwestern win, USC Michigan, Washington, your three game kind of schedule for Penn State. And then I looked at the other ones. I'm like, well, is there a chance they have, you know, sort of a let down game or one where they're overlooking them? I mean, we talk to Matt Campbell. I do not think he's the style of coach that's going to let his squad come in laxadaisical in one of those games. I would actually rather probably take the nine and a half at some plus money and see if they could potentially go over that and finish the season at 10 and two and be a playoff team than I do even eight to half at minus 160. So I am bullish on Penn State. I'm bullish on Rocco back to be a good game manager. They can extend some of those plays, make good decisions on the short yardage, you know, extending drives, goal line situations. I'm a believer in the continuity too. And this is one where I do feel like you're falling love with, but I fell in love with both. Like I fell in love with the higher and the schedule. So I think it's a combo of both. So I'm bullish on the nittyy lines. Yeah. I like the team. I love the schedule. Yeah. And this win totals is a schedule proposition. Yeah. You know, we've made a lot of comments. And I know I've certainly have about how they're, you know, the Penn State cyclones. But the reality of the situation is a lot of the players that are coming in are on offense and like skill position. So skill wise, it's a very Iowa state flavor to the offense. The offensive line has some guys, but defensively, while there are some cyclones sprinkled in into the two deep, it's mostly guys who have come back. So I think the defense is still going to be really good. It typically is offensively. I mean, it is, you know, you've got an Iowa State player, quarterback, running back receivers, all these things. Talent-wise, maybe they're not upgrades over what Penn State had, but performance-wise, they might be upgrades over what Penn State had at those positions outside the running back room, which was good, but I think Carson Hanson's gonna be fine for them at running back, but I think Rocco backed his not the NFL prototype that Drew Aller is, but I think he's a better quarterback on the field than Drew Aller was. I think that his skills in the receiver that came in was a decent deep threat for Iowa State, and I think he will be a good deep threat for Penn State. So I don't know if the offense is gonna be great, but I do think it could be better than last year. It could be more explosive than last year, and I think the defense is still gonna be pretty good. So I like this team. If they were playing a middle of the road, big 10 schedule, I probably would have them closer to 75-8 and 4 though. But since they're playing this schedule, I've got them going nine and three more than I've got them going eight and four. - Are you ready for 10 and two Penn State to miss the playoffs and nine and three Ohio State to get in? - It's within the realm of possibility, yeah. - I don't know if 10 and two with this schedule gets you in. But you know what I do think? It cashes all these wind totals, 'cause I'm with you, Danny. I'm on the over eight and a half, and I'm on the over nine and a half. I'm going, we're going 10 and two for Penn State. It was so funny though, you talk about Raw Talent. I'm like, wow, this is like on paper, hard numbers, prospect ratings, a downgrade in the total roster talent from 2025 to 2026. But guess what? Raw, roster talent numbers would not set up Matt Campbell to win 68% of his games over the last two seasons at Iowa State. I mean, it's just, this is where to your point, Danny, you can like the higher big picture, but also trust that if I need somebody to come in and get everybody on the same page and get this thing through, then let's go. Chase Soul, Carson Hanson, you're telling me these guys can't step in and be productive. I mean, show me all of the plentiful, like outside of running backs and tight ends. I mean, I haven't Penn State fans been clamoring for a wide receiver that could come in and put together a really, really big productive season. I think you might be able to get that with the former cyclone. Tony Rojas among the Penn State players that are back sticking around. - Well, we'll see how it shakes out, but Danny, I like you, USC Michigan, Washington. Yeah, I absolutely think that they can go through and they can be able to go one and two or better there. Yes, no. - Just one name I want to mention to watch out for. Pretty sure he read shirted last year, but he's projected to start at left tackle this year. Malachi Goodman was a five star in the 2025 class. He's a very, very, very, very, very good player. I think he might be one of the best offensive tackles in the country right off the jump. Got Cody Green coming up later too. I mean, listen, it ain't just on the field. Big 10 is cleaning up on the recruiting trail as well, getting top players on campus and then being able to hold onto them. Lots of fun already. All right, three teams down, six teams to go, and coming up on the other side, we change our tone a little bit. We change our tier. May no way to put it. Purdue and more. - Next. Congratulations to Eric D. Baradinius on right in that hit song for CBS Big Time. Just a banger right there. Big time coming up for those you watching on youtube.com/cover3. We're very excited obviously to bring you a lot of those matchups here on CBS. - How many kids are gonna win this fall? - Is a question for the Purdue boiler makers. What did I give you, Danny, is my one word or my instant? I said duct tape. Remember I was like, yeah, we gotta hold this team together with duct tape. Tyden, Kyle, and Fox, not necessarily expected to be like a leader, but one of the top tydans is one of two season ending knee injuries that we've already had since the start of fall camp. So the depth is already being tested. Defensive line needs to be a strength where they can get some solid play. Ryan Brown, I do think can help them, but with so much portal turnover that the skill positions, I'm having trouble trying to figure out what the offense is gonna look like. If there is a sunny side, from a schedule standpoint, some of the FBS games that are projected to have some of the smallest margins are home games. You roll out that big drum, and if Wake Forest, or Wisconsin, or Maryland, or Minnesota, if they get scared by big drums, you'll at least have that going with those games on your home turf to try to pull an upset. Tom, we got an over under win total at Draft King's sports book of three and a half, over plus 120 under minus 140, which way are you going? - We'll start with the positives. I don't think that their portal class was eye opening. I don't think their portal class added really truly different makers. But I do think that their portal class added a lot of depth to this roster that they just did not have last year. Berry Odom came in, brought a lot of guys with them from UNLV. Those guys have mostly kind of graduated or moved on now at this point, so it's a different looking team this year, but I felt like last year they were very thin. They did not have much in the way of backups, and you could tell as games went on that this team was just getting tired and just did not have anything left in the tank. I don't think that will be as big of a problem this year. The problem is I still don't think they're all that good, like talent-wise. I don't think the guys that they have at the starting positions compared to most of the teams, if not all of them, that they will be facing on a weekly basis are better. And you look at the schedule and honestly, you could say it's not the most difficult Big Ten schedule. They got Notre Dame and Noncon, which is right that one off. But when it comes to the Big Ten, they're playing Indiana on the road, but they don't have Ohio State, they don't have Michigan, they don't have Oregon. So you could be like, all right, they're catching some breaks. It's just, do you think they're better than UCLA, Illinois, Minnesota, Washington, Penn State, Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin? No. Like, of those home games, Minnesota, Washington, Maryland, Wisconsin, it's not out of question that they could be underdogs in all of them. I would say, I think they would be favored over Maryland, but I'm high on Maryland. By the time that game comes around, Maryland might be the favorite in that game, in West Lafayette. So, yeah, under. Yeah, I'm an agreement on the under as well. Purdue, I mean, typically we see group of six programs being feeder programs for the Power Four. Purdue is almost a feeder program. Their better players are getting plucked by other schools. They lost their top pass catchers. They lost their kicker in the portal to Notre Dame. Like, they can't even keep their good players because other teams are just spending more for them. I feel bad for Barry Odom. They're one of the least spending rosters in the country. It's just Ryan Brown. I know he's coming back, but is that, I mean, is that a good thing? He had nine touchdowns, 10 picks, and another nine fumbles. And probably a lot of it's not his fault 'cause he's running for his life the whole time. I just think this is one of the worst rosters clearly in the SEC in big 10, and maybe in the big 12 in ACC at the entire Power Four level. I think he's coaching with kind of one hand tied behind his back. I find it really hard to fight for a win. So I'm on the under. - I mean, I just wish, from the position of wishing that I could put more wins on this schedule, I wish that those teams that were coming were not also teams where I've got a big time trust in either for Minnesota, for Maryland. If you're gonna be higher on them, this Purdue game is one where you've got a win, and I've got it officially labeled as a toss up. I am respecting the challenge of making sure that you get this team going, and you end up on the right side of the margins on a college football Saturday, but I just don't see you being able to do it enough against the likes of Wake Forest, Minnesota, Maryland, Wisconsin. So I've got the team three and nine. I couldn't wouldn't be surprised if they flirt with going over, but I don't see this soaring over. I think I saw someone in the tailgate who mentioned this sentiment where you can say, "Surely, Purdue is gonna be able to go over," and then you sit down and look at the schedule and you try to count 'em up. I don't know where they are. So tough seats, just don't. - Like, the Wake Forest game is an absolute must have, if they have any prayer of getting over. Like, if they lose the Wake Forest, it's done. It's a wrap, they're not getting there. 'Cause then they got a what went for big 10 games. - Yep. - They've lost 18 Mara. - Yeah. - Who's gonna be the streak snapper? Let's call it up over time. - Over under half a big 10 win this year. - Maybe Wisconsin. I mean, because if Wisconsin is late in the season, right? That game is like, so like if Wisconsin fires fickle, it's at home for Purdue, quit factors in play. 'Cause I think Waleek Washington's gonna pick apart that defense. So that's, you're going up against, you're asking for Drake Lindsay and Malik Washington to be the quarterbacks that you're gonna be. And you're pulling a, pulling a Ryan Brown out. You know, I think that we've got a larger, I think Ace beats Jack on that one. You know, I think you've got better cards playing on the other sides. - The funniest outcome, like you asked over under half a conference win. This team's own 11 going into the Indiana game pulls out the most. talking upset we've ever seen, because like what Indiana has outscored them like 300 to three over the last two seasons. That is undoubtedly the funniest. The problem is we would get all of our chuckles in and it wouldn't mean anything like Indiana would get bounced from the big 10 title game, but they'd probably still make the playoff right? Oh, I don't know if Indiana loses in Purdue in the final week of the regular season in the 0 and 11 Purdue that it. I thought you were going to say that they beat Notre Dame. That would also be. Yeah, if one of their wins is like Notre Dame or Indiana and then they finish 1 to 11, that's the ideal college football hilarity, hilarity scenario. I would agree 100% with that. Kind of mo. Turn in our attention to Piscataway where Greg Sianno is getting ready for another season with Rutgers. It's a Rutgers team where I can throw you individuals, like I can throw you an Antoine Raymond at running back. I can throw you KJ Duff at Wild Receiver. Players who, if they walked out of Rutgers and walked to another big 10 team, they'd probably be a starter or competing for starter snaps here in Fall Camp. On the defensive side of things, we're just adding warm bodies. No, no, you just got eligibility, congratulations. Come on down to Rutgers. We're doing anything we can to build this thing up. This was absolutely carved up last year. Then the back seven has already taken some injuries. So that side of the ball is a little bit questionable. Quarterback, we got a battle between Dylan Lonergan and AJ. Can we get a pronunciation here? Srirachi. Srirachi? Okay. I'm assuming he's Italian. Yeah. He's Italian. He's Rutgers. If he is willingly chosen to go, we'll go with broad strokes here. All right. You look at the over under win total over at Draft King's sports book and for the Scarlet Knights at his four and a half heavily juiced to the over. We've also got some five and a half numbers for you for the bud heads out there. Bud is under on the Penn State. He sees that going eight and a half. Bud is under on Purdue as well. But what I want to hear from is from Tom. What are we doing with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, four and a half wins? I'm going under. I don't think this team was very good last year. I think that Atheon Kelleyek-Manus, who is now in NFL training camp, was one of the more underappreciated players in the college football and definitely in the Big Ten. He is the one reason in my mind. Him and Ian Strong, and you mentioned KJ Duff is back, but Kelleyek-Manus, that offense kept them in so many games with him gone with strong leaving, going to Cal. Those are two huge parts of the offense. The defense can't be worse than it was last year, but a couple of the guys that they lost were two of their better players on defense. Bo Masco went to Texas, and what's the other, Jacobi Henderson ended up going to Virginia, although I don't think he was great, but he was decent. I don't know if this roster is better than last year's, in fact, I would probably bank on it being slightly worse, so you got USC in Indiana at home, so you lose two home games there pretty much. Although, you know, flying across the country for USC has been a problem, and it has been a problem for a lot of West Coast schools, so maybe Rutgers pulls off the shocker. You've got Michigan. Especially since that game's on CBS. You've got Michigan, Nebraska, and Michigan State. You look at the home slate in Big Ten, and Nebraska and Michigan State feel like you can get them. The others, I'm just not very confident. You've got to go on the road for Maryland, that's a coin toss. You've got to go on the road for Boston College with one of your coin tosses, Northwestern, Wisconsin. I feel like you got the wrong end of the home road splits on this one, and it's hard for me to think that they are going to be better under. I'm going to go over, I'm not rushing to the window to put this one up, but I do feel way better about the non-conference UMass Boston College on the road and Howard. I feel like you got three wins right there. I kind of looked at the Michigan State last game of the season as a home game, and in best case scenario, maybe you're playing for a bowl, but I actually feel pretty good about the offense. The trend has been multiple running backs, let's have running back committee, let's save the tread. Boy, the tread at the end of the season for the Rutgers running backs in the last few years has been on just as bald as they get. I usually run my tire down when it's almost a blowout. That's what they're going to do. That's what they've been last with Kyle Menunga a couple of years ago, Antoine Raven this past season. I don't know if KJ Duff gets enough attention as one of the best receivers in the country. He is an absolute freak at 66, 225, one of those big body guys. They were able to keep him as somebody who grew up in the area. I think the offense can be one of those, and I think Greg Chiano knows exactly what they are, what they want to be. I think they're going to try to extend drives, slow the game down. I'll go over ever so slightly, but again, not rushing the window, but I'll go over the four and a half. Yeah. Danny, it sounds like I'm with you. I'm over the four and a half, but I wouldn't go over the five and a half. I think that this is lined correctly in terms of the juice really pointing you into a five and seven season. That's kind of what I keep coming back to. I'm officially on the over here. A lot of games, or I'm just not ready to chalk it up as a loss, and you all have talked about a couple of them, Michigan State, the game at Northwestern. I'll say Boston College is a toss up, but like you, Danny, I kind of see that as a three and o in the non-con. Can you go get two big 10 wins? I say the offense can be good enough for them to go get two big 10 wins. Over on the four and a half, but if you asked me to take it one step further, I would probably stop there. Buds on the under two. Over the bud heads, but is on the under as well. Media day today, I think at UCLA for Bob Chesney and the Bruins, I could get some clarity on the wide receiver position. The offensive tackle position, defensive line, and so much more. Where there's no questions is at QB1, Niko Iamaliyava steps into that role with an opportunity to continue to build positive chapters and stack good days on a college career that has not been linear. I mean, it has been up and it has been down in sideways and across the country. And so, can you see that Chesney with his success that he hit the ground running at James Madison was able to maintain the standard after Kurt Zignetti left. Now he's taking over UCLA where the standard is not the same as it was at James Madison. So he's got a little bit of building to do. If you look at what they've done in the portal for this year and on the high school recruiting trail, they do seem to have a decent investment. You know, they're, they're playing the player acquisition game. The schedule right out the gate, though, could be a little bit tricky. A lot of games that I have deemed as toss ups. Tom, the over under win total at Draft King Sportsbook is six and a half wins over plus one ten under minus one thirty two, what you doing with the Bruins. I am not overly confident on either side of this line. My gut though tells me that the market is overestimating UCLA a little bit because of the James Madison Kurt Zignetti kind of comparisons and everybody's always desperate to find the next Indiana and find the next team that could be the one that comes out of nowhere with a new head coach and a bunch of guys who transferred in. My counter to that is, did you watch James Madison against Oregon? Are you sure bringing in that entire team to a big 10 program where you're going to be facing big 10 programs every single week is going to immediately upgrade the roster. Now that's an oversimplification, but I do think that there is some truth that needs to be hidden in there. And then you mentioned that schedule at Cal and San Diego State to open and you're non-con. That's not a simple start like that. Those are two tough games, and Diego State is one of the better G six teams out there and at Cal, they were a very good team and they very good quarterback. Now all that said, I do think Nico is better than his reputation and I do think Nico was in a terrible spot last year and just suffered. I think that once there's some kind of stability around him, he could be, if he's not going to live up to the five star duty was out of high school, he could still be a top half big 10 quarterback. So I think that they will be better, but then they're also on the road for Oregon, they're on the road for Michigan, you get USC to end the year. I think six and six is very much in play. I don't think seven and five is as realistic. So I'm not overly confident on it, but I am going under. You're almost exactly the same page I am. I think the long term, I think Bob Chesney is going to be a really solid hire. The 10, 42 transfer players, 10 from James Madison, they've kind of tried to piece together some things, which you have to do. I think the Cal game is one that probably could determine this one, whether it goes over under and I kind of lean towards Cal, I think the odds makers do too. I think Cal is what a one point favorite, something like that. The offensive line, they did lose three starters in the offensive line, they're bringing in two line and from James Madison, again, this bigger jump, they didn't get pushed around a little bit. I think that's probably the area that concerns me the most is in the trenches. That's the one that usually takes a little bit of catching up to. I haven't going bowling, but I don't have them going over and getting to seven. I think even, I think six isn't a lock, I think that'd be a really good thing. first year, but I just think that's probably the ceiling for me on UCLA. I'm, I'm spot on this number, you know, in my sort of dumb, you know, not very smart kid math on this. I was six and a half. Then I pull open the, the doc to check it against the price. Sure enough, it's six and a half as well. I will, I will officially be on the over here with my ex-factors being Wayne Knight. I think is, because like you're saying, did you watch Oregon? Well, Wayne Knight still broke some big runs loose and they were still able to move the ball a little bit, even as the game was totally out of, they did not quit, you know, they still went out there and found ways to be able to try to score defensively, defensive line, all the criticism that you want to apply from the Oregon loss and move it forward. I understand that, but I think this UCLA offense is going to be able to score some points and I think that being able to do that will give them a chance in those games at home when Wisconsin has to travel when Michigan State has to travel. And like, who knows? Like maybe even when Illinois has to travel, are you going to be able to be there, be ready to go and be able to outscore the opponent? I think that that those will be spots how the Bruins do it. So six and six, seven and five, I've kind of got it, you know, half dozen, one way, six the other, but ultimately I'll throw down my official prediction as over, I think they can get to seven and five. Give me as the pivot game here, whether or not they can go and cause some problems when they play at Minnesota after the Nevada game will be a little bit of a breather on Halloween. If they can show up and if they can get a win where no one else did last year, that might be able to power them the rest of the way. We will see. I've got it seven and five. Wow. Wolfpack two words put that on a bulletin board. You're a breather. Yeah. I put it on a bulletin board. Let's go. But also on the over by the way. Okay. All right. But the but heads also on the over coming up on the other side. We are coming down the stretch. USC Washington, Wisconsin, round out our big 10 win totals and more next. Back here on the cover three podcast, turning our attention to the USC Trojans. After doing sort of a foot, we were so locked into the work we were doing together and with all the coaches that it really took me a week or two to see what other people thought about media days. Well, Lincoln Riley. I mean, how many times did I read Lincoln Riley with confidence? I've never seen before Lincoln Riley looks so comfortable. This is the first time I've seen Lincoln Riley really look like he had some swag. I mean, true. Not if his goal. I'm saying if Lincoln Riley wants to lie to us, he did a hell of a job of lying to everybody in a way that has everybody just, you can't explain why because beneath the surface, we've got Killian O'Connor. You're starting center goes down with an injury at the beginning of fall camp. We are losing to NFL bound wide receivers and defensively, they were not very good against the run. And what is it? Tell me your team outlook, your schedule outlook, where are you starting with USC? I am a I'm in its money because I was a little bit more bullish before the Killian O'Connor injury as well. That happened after Big 10 media days, but one of the things that Lincoln Riley did mention was this is offensive line, which he liked a lot, which I would too. I'm still going to go over the eight and a half. I do think the non-con, getting Notre Dame off the schedule and having a nice little three game kind of preseason. I think it's huge. And then tricky game against Rutgers on the road. I think that's a win, but they're tougher games to Oregon, Washington, and Ohio State, all out there at L.A. at the Coliseum. So I think that's extremely helpful. Tricky Road trip to Penn State, we talked about them. I like Penn State. I really like Jade Mayov a ton. I think he's a really, really good quarterback. And I think the addition to Gary Patterson is going to be huge. I think they're going to get better production in their linebackers, more discipline. I Texas are, excuse me, USC reminds me of Texas. Very similar. If it is not this year, and I think Texas is ceiling is a little bit higher, probably because of those skill positions that they've got, but I still think USC, they're not exactly slouches at this skill positions. No kinds is more than capable. Tarell Anderson, the transfer from NC State should be able to put up some numbers. They have depth in the backfield with Jordan and Miller. So I think they'll be fine on offense. Like I think that's one where you just kind of trust Lincoln Riley to kind of figure it out, especially with the returning quarterback. And I think the defense is going to be better. So I'm going to go over on USC. What is the same thing we've been saying about Lincoln Riley teams for a decade now? The offense is going to be fine. Yep. They can only figure out defense. Well, I think that they've mostly figured out defense. I think that USC has done a very good job of building its defensive line. I know Gary Patterson has not been a defensive coordinator, but I think that Gary Patterson is smart enough to understand, considering that's his background, how to be a defensive coordinator. So I think USC's defense is going to be pretty good this year. Might not be elite, but it's going to be pretty good. Irony is their offensive line was dog due to last year. And I kind of worry that it's going to be dog due to again this year. And the Connor injury certainly plays a part there because he might not have been a great player, but he was he had played. He did have experience. He's a senior. And now you look at their two deep. A lot of guys coming back from last year, frankly, I didn't think were that good. And then there's a lot of untested freshmen and sophomores and that two deep. So maybe these kids come in and they're phenomenal. Maybe they're the maybe they raised the floor. Maybe they play really well, or maybe they don't. And their offensive line isn't that good. And they've got to face Oregon's defensive line. They've got to face Washington's defensive line. They've got to face Penn State's defensive line. They've got to face Wisconsin's defensive line in Ohio State and Indiana. It's a lot of tough matchups if your offensive line isn't good. I don't care who your quarterback is or who your skill positions are. It's hard to score points that way. So I don't think this team's going to stink. But I think eight and four is more likely than nine and three. And if it's if it does finish under and the season goes awry, it will be because of the offensive line. Come on the under. You mentioned the location of those games, but just based on opponents, this is got to be one of the toughest big 10 schedules you could possibly draw. Oh, God yeah. Yeah. You get you get the three big dogs and then you've got Washington and Penn State too. That's what I'm saying. I just I can like the team. I can be enthusiastic about the idea that this is not going to be a total train wreck because while it might be good for content, it's not the most fun thing for me to wake up in the day. Boy, I can't wait to trash. You know, can't wait to talk about Lincoln Riley NFL rumors now. You know, like I think that's not things that I enjoy doing. I like talking about teams. I like analyzing the way they play. I like watching these games. I think USC will be a very competitive team. I think USC is a top 20 caliber team schedule wise. I just think they draw the toughest possible schedule that they could have drawn in the big 10 in terms of opponents. I think that eight and a half is a terrific number. Ultimately, I'm going to be on that you heard me talk about over on Ohio State. You heard me talk about over on Oregon. You heard me talk about over on Penn State. Well, guess what? We're balancing this thing out. Then I need to I need to show you where the other side of it is technically I'm spot on at eight and a half, but Tom, I'm with you. I'm going to go under. I think that eight and four more likely than nine and three just because and they're all in a row, too. You know, that you're going to be beating the dog do do out of those first couple teams, then all the sudden it's going to get real and very, very real. And I hope that you don't have any nicks or like bad injuries at the wrong position because there's not going to be a ton of time outside of that October 17th by to get right. And then while the sudden you're going to be finding yourself in a in a real tough spot in terms of accumulating losses quickly. So officially, I'm on the under and give me eight and four as the as the record here for the Trojans on to the Washington Huskies over under win total at draft Kings sports book of seven and a half though that one is heavily juiced to the over talked with a jetfish about Ryan Walters defense about a very, very good linebacker room. Demond Williams didn't, I mean, Demond Williams, awesome time having a conversation with him, Danny. What's your expectation for Williams? What's your expectation for this offense where he loses, you know, top Russia, top receiver, but but still returns the one dynamic playmaker who is a nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators? I so I think there's a reason this is heavily juice because I had him at eight wins by November 21st. And I think they'll be in the top 15. I think they'll be in the playoff discussion. And then they play Indiana at home, Oregon on the road. And if they can get one of those, then maybe it can force their way into a nine and three, you know, playoff bubble type team. I think the Demond Williams, I was really impressed with the way he kind of came into his own. We talked about how, you know, I'm most improved award from an interview perspective, but I also think some of that has to do with like leadership, comfortable where he's taking an ownership role of this team. A little bit worried about the secondary. and some pieces there, a little bit worried about losing his favorite target, as you mentioned, but I think, Timon Williams, is that quarterback that probably a lot of defenses don't want to face? I think he could be problematic for a lot of them. So I'm on over for the Washington Huskies. I'm also on the over. I think offensively, this team will be very solid top third of the big 10. I understand your concerns about the secondary considering who they lost at corner, but I do think they had some solid depth there. And I think they're going to be okay. Like Dylan Robinson was very good as a freshman last year. I think he's going to take another step forward and be one of the better corners in the league. I love their linebackers. There are questions on the defensive line. Like I think this is a defense that could probably be run on a bit, but will probably be pretty decent against the past. So that'll be something to look out for. Like if they're playing a good rushing team, it could be a long day where they're going to have to get into shootouts. But overall, I like the Huskies and I think that the schedule is until you get to the very end of the year. Like Danny was mentioning, I think that it's somewhat favorable. I do think that they could stack up some wins and be in that situation where they're looking really good and it's like they're in the play off conversation coming November and then they have Indiana and Oregon coming. Maybe knock them out of that conversation, but they're there all the same. I'm not like running to the window to bet this. I am not overly optimistic, but my numbers have them at 9.7 wins. So that's an over. I let's see. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. So not 9.7. Do you think it's more what's more likely? Washington plays spoiler or is a resume pattern and potentially fraudulent resume pattern? Like if they're sitting on it, they're fraudulent, I think. No, no, no, no, no, you're talking about like that. Indiana. Just the idea that on November 20th, they could be sitting at 8th in the country. And we can all be looking around with some truth. I don't know if they can get. I mean, it depends on who they beat, but I think they're probably they're solid. I think they're a solid resume builder. Yes. And I mean, that's a tough place to play. I mean, it's going to be, and it'll be a great atmosphere to be a really, I think it'll be a good test for Indiana. I could see them being a one-loss team going into the Indiana game. And if Washington is a one-loss team, then, you know, they'll be up there. Seven, six in the country, somewhere like that. I am on the over here, but there's enough question. I went fraudulent, always gets thrown around in a way that is, you know, overly mean. So I guess I should walk that back. But kind of the Texas A&M 2025 vibes, right? Or they keep creeping up. And you're like, yeah, let's see what happens when they, you know, they might have that going on with this Washington team because, as you mentioned, offensive line, defensive line, running back room, kind of been banged up all spring. Jayden Lamar comes over from Oregon to be able to anchor that. I trust the coaching. I will say that. Judd fish don't need no damn offensive coordinator. I'm your offensive coordinator. You know, like ultimately, Judd fish coaching an offense. Ryan Walters coaching a defense. That, that's really good coaching. So I do think that they'll be able to stack the wins. I am on the over, but I am not ready to consider them as legitimate, you know, a ruin your season potential. By the time we get down there to Indiana and Oregon. Extremely important question for, uh, for Luke fickle, Wisconsin. How many wins? We're only talking about wins. That is the only thing we are counting here, Wisconsin. Okay. We are just counting wins. We're not counting anything else. Danny, how many wins are the badges going to win this fall? They're going to win six. They're going to go bowling. Yeah, but I don't know if I can get over that number. I do. We've talked a lot about this. I love the Luke fickle higher. I think they're going to be a better football team. The schedule sets up a lot better for them. I think Colin Joseph could, I mean, I'm trying to recall because they've had this injury bad luck, but they haven't had a weapon as a quarterback runner. What? Colin Joseph could deliver for them being a thousand yard rusher last year at Old Dominion. So I think that element could actually help kind of their offense get some production. I just have a hard time going over to that magical seven numbers. I do think seven and five is probably the number that I look at, but then you'd have to beat one of the better teams in your schedule. And I just don't know if I trust them enough to say they're going to get those yet. And I also do worry if they do get shellacked against Notre Dame, which they probably should, like, how much does that put on them? And then at Penn State, I think that's a tough game. If you start off kind of oh and two against the better teams, you know, where are you? And I do think they'll fight hard for them, but and I think they'll win the games are kind of supposed to, but I just don't know if I see them getting like a big upset here for Wisconsin. Do you guys remember the movie Brewsters Millions? Yeah. Who's that Richard prior? Yeah. Yeah. Yes. Yes. Chip, you were probably, it's just like a like six months old when that movie came out. But for the premises, Richard prior is a minor league baseball player, I believe, and he gets $30 million, but the catch is yes, suspended in 30 days. The story came out this week about the roster spends of teams in Wisconsin is one of the big 10 teams in that $30 million plus range. And my concern is that a lot of that money was spent in desperation. Like they've had problems. So the money came in and then they just kind of threw money at stuff. And I've mentioned it on the show. They brought in a lot of the transfer portal. I think that they overspent on some of what they brought in. I brought, I think they brought in depth guys and they were paying them like star starter money. Like I get Colton Joseph. I understand the appeal, but I don't know that he is somebody who once he steps up in competition, maybe some of his deficiencies are exaggerated in the big 10 compared to where they were when he was at Old Dominion. I love Abu Sama. He was, you know, he was a very productive player for Iowa State, even if he wasn't the star running back on that team last year with Hanson. He's like, I think you rest for over 700 yards. He has over 1800 yards in his career. I like that signing. But I feel like this is a program that talent wise, probably the better players in their overall class in and out or on the outside, whereas the guys coming in are not definitive upgrades. So I do think this team will be better record wise because the problem that they ultimately faced the last few years was an impossible schedule. And the schedule is much easier. So I'm with Danny. They are going to get to a bowl game in my estimation more often than not. But they're not going to win seven games more often than they win six. So I'm on the under. Yep. I mean, they could start three and five. Right. And then all of a sudden, you're going into games that you that should be there to win. And it just how's it going to feel? I think that Luke fickle is going to have, you know, the everybody who's pulling on the route with Luke fickle and Luke fickle be right there on the front lines of it. Because that's just that's the kind of coach that he is. But the other risk that you run when you're bringing in so many players from the transfer portal is whether they are going to still be with you, you know, in the foxhole at the very end of a season with the losing record. It's not part of my calculation. My calculation is is much more, you know, straight down the line. I just see too many losses to be able to get all the way up to a seven and five. I am also on the under here. But the bud heads, y'all will be standing against the tide. Buds on the over. He's got a seven and five badgers. So we are not all ready to move on. We are not all ready to say that this team is six and six or worse. Bud leading the charge for seven and five or more. Okay. A couple of pieces of business decay. I know you need to run. Thank you so much for for hanging tight. We've got number one still an opportunity for you to share locks on the cover three podcast. Yes. If you go over, you check out a link in the description. We'll be sure to share it on our social channels as well that the opportunity for you to be able to bid. It is an active charity auction. And the prize is for you to be able to join the cover three podcast and share some locks during the season. So please head on over to that. We those are other news item. Oh, it's in the tailgate too. Are our fantasy leagues full yet, Tom? No, they are not. Hey, come join our fantasy leagues too. I'll be go check our our social media channels as well at Tom Fernelli at Chip underscore Patterson. If you would like to play fantasy football against the two of us this year, that also goes to benefit the St. Jude Children's Hospital. All of this right now is through fantasy football today. CBS sports fantasy. Awesome charity work that's done every single August in advance of the regular season. So if you want to play fantasy football with us all season long, that's a set price. That's not a bid. You can go and check out the links for that. Also, the auction, the auction is for you to be able to join the locks pod as well. And speaking of locks, the win totals locks that will be coming up tomorrow 11 a.m. Eastern time are very best bets from the win total series, which will include power conferences and also our chance to weigh in on our favorite picks from in the group of six and more, any other, let's see. Shrikers, anything else I need to hit? Business, oh, splash picks. Thank you. Our splash contest is back. It was so much fun last year. Remember, you went through, you got to do your favorite picks, you got to signal the best bet. The lines locked in advance of the game, so you would be able to get it in. And we continued it all season long. We celebrated those of you who were at the top of the leaderboard. I will be sure to get you the link to that as well in the episode description and on our social media channels. So we have a splash contest for you to enter that will be all season long picking games against the spread. You get to pick your very favorite plays from the board that Splash provides. But then also, if you want to get in on the charity auction, be sure to go and do that as well. Look forward to seeing everybody back here 11 a.m. Eastern time for the locks. You can follow him on Twitter at time for today. You can follow me @chip_patterson. Tom, thank you very much. Thank you. The beginning of the story of Hampton's Web! Holden that! 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