Speaker 1This is the Commodity Culture Podcast, where we interview prominent investors, fund managers, analysts, and company CEOs to give you an edge when it comes to investing in the commodity space. Peter Schiff, great to have you on Commodity Culture. Now, gold looked like it was attempting to rally, rising from around $4,000 at the start of August to over $4,600 by the end of that month. But since then, of course, we've seen a sharp sell-off and now down to around $4,100 and change. What are your thoughts on that price action? Why do you think that rally failed to hold up?
Speaker 2Well, I think the markets were surprised by the higher-than-expected inflation data, which you would think intuitively is actually bullish for gold, but it caused the Fed to have to change the market expectations from rate cuts to rate hikes. And in fact, the Fed delivered the first quarter point hike in a recent meeting. And I think it was the fears of a tighter Fed and higher rates that caused gold to surrender the gains from that bounce. But I think that we're retesting and building solid support. And I think that we're retesting and building solid support. Around that $4,000 level, which is where gold initially fell to after hitting a new all-time record high, about $5,600, the gold market broke back down slightly below $4,000. I think it maybe traded below $4,000 for one day, maybe two tops before recovering. And this time around, it hasn't even been below $4,000. It's been below $4,100, but it's still held a four-handle. So I think that gold's getting ready for another big move. Once the markets recognize that these rate hikes are meaningless, that they're not going to represent any kind of headwind for gold, because the rate hikes are much smaller than the increase in inflation, the unexpected increase in inflation. In fact, inflation has already increased by much more than the Fed is even contemplating that they might raise rates. So real rates are actually much lower than the market expected them to be. So the gold market is going to be much lower than the market expected them to be. you know, two and a half. Rates are headed back up now. No one's refinancing. They're going to go to eight and a half, nine and a half, 10, 11. Mortgage rates were at 18% in 1981. So they fell for 40 years. Now they're going to rise maybe for as many years, I don't know, or at least half as many. And we're only six years into the rate rise. Treasuries were at 14% and they went down to a half a percent. So now we're at 5%. But 5% is still pretty cheap money. It's just not so cheap when you owe so much. But yields will hit 6%, then 7%, then 8%. So the problem is going to get bigger and bigger and bigger. And so is the debt bill. We're going to be paying $2 trillion a year in interest on the national debt by the end of next year. But if rates rise to 8% and the national debt is $50 trillion in two or three years, which it will be, we could be spending $4 trillion a year. On interest on the national debt. I mean, that's 80% of tax revenue. And if we were spending $4 trillion a year on interest, that would mean the entire budget deficits would be about six or $7 trillion because we'd have to borrow all that money. We don't have it. So can we survive with budget deficits, annual budget deficits that enormous? No. So sometime between here and then right now, we're going to have a bond crisis. And it could happen in a few weeks. It could happen in a few months. I doubt we're going to be able to hold it off for a few years.
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Speaker 2Well, I think one thing is you need to see the dollar. The dollar is actually losing value against its fiat counterparts. So if you see the dollar weakening against the euro, against the pound, against the yen, that would be one indication. Another one would be when you start to see the gold market responding to hotter than expected inflation numbers by going up, not down. Or when you see the bond market rising when interest rates rise, not bond yields, not falling. Because that will be a strong indication that the markets are figuring it out. That traders are recognizing that higher inflation numbers are not just a sign that the Fed is going to have to fight harder to beat inflation. They're confirming that the Fed has already lost the inflation fight. That inflation is one. That the Fed can't fight hard enough to beat it. That is the problem. That is the actual reality. But the markets still don't get that. They say, oh, inflation is higher. Then we thought, oh, the Fed is just going to have to be more aggressive. But they can't be. They put themselves in a box. Look, Warsh has been Fed chair for five months. And during those five months, the inflation numbers have gotten progressively worse. Yet we've only got one 25 basis point rate hike. That's it. Meantime, the balance sheet is bigger now than it was five months ago when he took office. And money supply M2 is growing at a 6% annualized rate. This is a highly accommodated. Fed. This is not an inflation fighting Fed. So despite what Warsh has said that has spooked the gold market about his resolve and how the Fed is going to do whatever it takes to bring inflation down, so far what it's doing is pushing inflation up. So forget about what they say. Look at what
Speaker 1they do. Now, if gold bugs are lamenting right now due to a drop in the gold price, silver stackers are even more upset as we see the metal plunge to around $57. After soaring to triple digits earlier in the year, I've personally been a buyer at these levels. I'm wondering if you're seeing this as an opportunity to accumulate and how low do you think silver could go in a worst case scenario?
Speaker 2Well, I mean, I think that $50 is the support because I think that was the resistance that basically was holding the market back since 1980, 81. It acted as very substantial resistance in 2011. And even as gold initially, rose from $2,000 to $4,000, silver still couldn't get above that. It wasn't until gold really finally had that, you know, $4,000 to $5,000 rally that all of a sudden silver went from $30,000 to $125,000. It was just an explosion with a breakout. It makes sense that that type of parabolic rise wasn't sustainable. And we had a pullback. Now, the pullback was actually bigger than I had expected when we were trading at those levels. But I didn't think that, It would be out of the question. And I think that anything below $60, frankly, I think represents the bottom now. I think that, you know, 50 is probably the new 20, you know, for silver. And, you know, we're going a lot higher. So it's been a bigger correction than what we had in gold. But silver still looks cheap to me relative to gold, even though it's not as cheap as it was. You know, it was 100 to 1 at one point. It was over 100 to 1 when, you know, gold was at the highs and silver was still below 30. It was barely above 20 even.
Speaker 1Gold and silver equities also taking quite a hit recently. What are your thoughts on the gold and silver miners here? And how do you view physical metals versus miners in terms of portfolio allocation?
Speaker 2Well, you know, there are different types of investments. I look at gold, physical gold and silver. As money, as just being a store of value. They're not investments per se. They're just a way to preserve your purchasing power. I think that gold and silver mining companies as an investor, as a stock market investor, I think these businesses are undervalued because I think investors just don't understand how much higher the price of gold and silver will be in the future and how much money these companies are going to make. Not only on their mining operations, but how much more valuable their reserves are going to become with much higher metal prices. So I have a lot more mining stocks than I just have physical metal because I think I'm getting a much better deal on the gold that's still in the ground than buying what's already been mined. Given that my outlook doesn't really match the conventional wisdom of future gold prices. I see a real. A real dollar crisis, a sovereign debt crisis, much higher prices. Meanwhile, gold stocks are earning a lot more money now than they were a few years ago. Even though the price of gold has pulled back, look at where it is. And even though oil prices are high in dollar terms at over $90 a barrel, when gold is over $4,000 an ounce, historically, that's a very cheap relationship between gold and oil. And oil is. You know, a major cost component of mining. But since the price of gold has risen more than the price of oil, it's a great environment for these gold mining companies. And I think gold prices are headed a lot higher. I think the price of gold is going to outpace the price of oil. I think both are headed higher, actually. So I think oil prices are going to go up. And in the short run, rising oil prices have again acted as a headwind for gold. The markets perceive that as meaning a tighter Fed. But ultimately, higher oil prices are going to mean a looser Fed because the Fed is going to accommodate those higher oil prices with bigger budget deficits and more quantitative easing. And that's going to be bullish for gold. We're going to have more inflation as a result, not of the rise in the price of oil, but as a result of the monetary policy that the Fed will pursue as a result of the increase in the price of oil.
Speaker 1And so do you think the biggest and the best of the gold producers are still undervalued at these levels, the Agnico Eagles, the Barricks, Newmonts, your royalty streamers like Franco and Wheaton Precious Metals? Would you be going a little further out on the risk chain to the smaller producers and the developers? Would love to get your thoughts there.
Speaker 2Yeah, I think the whole sector is undervalued, but I think that the smaller ones represent the best relative value. One, because they didn't participate as much as the bigger companies in the rise over the past couple of years, but because I believe that these larger companies are going to be making so much money, have so much free cash flow, they are going to be acquiring a lot of the smaller companies because they have the resources to develop their projects and they need to expand their reserves because over the years of really the big bear market, there was a underinvestment in exploration and development. So they don't have as big a pipeline as they should. So I think you're going to see a lot of consolidation within the industry, and that's going to favor the companies that gets consolidated into the bigger companies. So that's why I think it's a great time to be invested in our fund, our gold fund, the Europe Pacific Gold Fund, EPGFX is the no-load symbol, because we have overweighted the juniors. And the way we hedge the risk of doing that is we also overrate the royalty companies. So those are a little bit less risky because their cash flows are more predictable because you don't have the cost exposure that you do in conventional mining. So we've combined an overweight in the royalty companies with an overweight in the juniors. And we still have those companies that you mentioned. We just have them as a smaller weighting relative to their weighting in the index or something.
Speaker 1How close do you think? We are to a potential bursting of the AI bubble and the broad market correcting, because by all valuation metrics, highly overvalued here. But of course, over the past several years, I've had a lineup of guests on this show saying we're very close to some sort of correction. We saw a very small one with the initial Trump tariffs, kind of a flash crash and a very fast recovery. Where do you think the broad market sits today? And in the event of a bursting of that bubble and a large drawdown, is there any worries about it taking the mining sector and gold and silver down with it?
Speaker 2Yeah, well, I mean, first of all, it's hard to say if AI is in a bubble. First of all, just about everybody is talking about the fact that it's in a bubble. So it's not like, you know, you have that many people denying it. And sometimes when a bubble is obvious, well, maybe maybe it's not. I, you know, I don't think that AI as a technology is a bubble at all. I mean, we're probably underestimating the impact that it's ultimately going to have on on humanity. Um, but it's hard to say the companies in the US that are investing so much right now in building out the AI infrastructure, all the CapEx related to the compute and the data centers. It's hard to know if that is a bubble, if those particular investments will ultimately prove to be profitable or if they're all going to lose money. Uh, because the US is really the country that's making this big bet. I mean, everybody else has access to the same information, but you're not seeing anywhere near this kind of spend, uh, in other countries. I mean, you're seeing China is involved, uh, but, you know, so this is either going to be a big bet that pays off or we're going to be, we're going to be stuck with, with, with, with, uh, a bunch of malinvestment. If at the end of the day. Uh, AI can be acquired, uh, from competitors at, at, at more favorable terms. You know, we don't know what ultimately it's going to cost to deliver the, uh, the inference or, you know, the tokens that are ultimately needed, uh, to, to, to drive, you know, an AI workforce. Cause that, that's where the productivity comes from. The productivity comes from the potential for AI to be more efficient. Then, then humans. And therefore a lot of the work that's currently being done by humans, uh, will be done by artificial intelligence, uh, quicker and cheaper. Um, so we'll see. I mean, I'm sure that ultimately that's going to happen, but it's, it's hard to say, but I think right now the AI build out is going to run into a lot of constraints that people just kind of take for granted or, or don't realize one is going to be all of the credit demand from a limited pool of savings and the upward pressure on interest rates, which will be substantial and not sustainable in an environment where we have so much existing debt, but also just the, the, uh, the resources, the raw materials that are needed for this massive build out. Um, where are they going to come from? And, you know, what are we going to give up? What are we going to do without in order to make this possible? Because in general, people don't want to give up stuff. They don't want to do without stuff. I mean, look at the riots that you're seeing in France right now, you know, and, and they barely scratched the surface of what they have to ask the French to give up because they don't have, they're broke. They can't keep borrowing money anymore. Uh, so. So I think that before we get to the AI promised land, we're going to be wandering in the desert for a while. So there's going to be some problems that, and nobody is really concerned about, but all of a sudden everybody will be concerned when it's too late to do something to prevent
Speaker 1it. I hope you've been enjoying this interview. And if you're the type of person who likes to dive deep and become a better investor in the commodities sector, I have now created an online class. It's called the commodity investing Academy. We've got lessons on all sorts of topics from investing in silver to uranium to gold and silver stacking and much more, along with being able to take a live look at my own portfolio, which has handily outperformed the SMP since inception in 2020, find out what I'm buying, what I'm selling and what I'm holding, as well as being part of a vibrant community of commodity investors and sound money advocates. And I'll see you in the next one. Go to join CIA.com to join up today. The link is in the description. And so if we do see a crash in the broad market, do you think gold and silver and related equities will take a big hit? And in such an event, do you think it's prudent to keep extra cash on the sidelines right now? Or do you think it's more, you know, time in the market versus timing the market that makes sense here?
Speaker 2Well, I wouldn't be worried about your physical precious metals, even if we're to go down temporarily. I don't believe it would stay down. And it may not be. It may not go down at all. Maybe this is as far down as we're going. You don't know. And it depends on how preemptive, you know, the government's going to be. When are they going to recognize the problem and come out with the big guns, right? The big QE program. Are they going to wait till after everything crashes or early in the crash, recognize what's coming and try to get ahead of it? So you don't know. So my, my thought is always to just hold your gold and silver. Don't worry if the price goes down because you're not selling it when the price is going down. You're holding it because we know eventually not only will the price be way up, but it may be what we need, uh, as money. It may be the only thing that actually buys something. Uh, when we have to purchase goods or services from other people, gold may be how they want to be paid or silver. They may not want dollars. We don't know what the dollar is going to be worth or, you know, if people will be willing to exchange it. exchange valuable goods and services for what may be worthless pieces of paper. The gold and silver will always have value. And so people will be willing to trade value for value. They just not, may not be willing to trade value for nothing. And that's, you know, one of the reasons I'm developing my T-gold platform is to really get out in front of that so that when people own their gold and we have it stored for them, that we actually are creating a mechanism that makes it easier to use your gold as a medium of exchange. You actually conduct a 24-hour day, seven-day-a-week commerce in gold, whether you're paying somebody gold for their goods and services or whether they're paying you gold in exchange for your goods or services.
Speaker 1Well, I want to talk about that a little bit later, but first I do want to unpack these riots that are happening in France, civil unrest looking like it's now starting to crop up in Italy and some other places as well. In Belgium, too, we're seeing riots, looting, clashes with the police, and it doesn't appear to be slowing down at this point. What do you think is behind all of this? Does this have to do with the debt and deficit situation? Is France just totally broke? Cost of living, you know, is cited as one of the issues. Other people are blaming unchecked immigration. I mean, there's so many different theories swirling around there. What do you think is behind this?
Speaker 2Yeah, look, I think this is the consequence of creating a welfare state. You create a consequence of creating a welfare state. You create a consequence of creating a not only of dependency, but of entitlement. People believe that they're entitled to stuff just simply because they exist. And I think that's the consequence of creating a welfare if they're not getting what they believe they deserve, they lash out at the government because the government is seen as the provider. And a lot of people don't understand that government doesn't actually have anything. They think, oh, government gives me all this stuff. They assume that the government has the stuff. It doesn't have anything. Government doesn't create anything. Government can redistribute. So if the government is going to give money to some people, it has to first take it away from somebody else. And so you get to a point, though, where you can't keep taking from the people you're taking from because they're going to move or they're going to change their behavior. You know, it's like if you got a certain number of people who are riding in the barrel, in a wheelbarrow, and then you have a certain number of people who are pushing it and making it go. You know, if you try to get more people in that barrel, you're going to have a barrel and fewer people pushing it. Pretty soon, the people pushing it just give up. It's just too hard. And everybody wants to go in the barrel. But then there's nobody left to push it. So you're starting to see this happening in France. And what I mean, you get the looting, you get the violent reaction, because, again, when people think they're getting ripped off, that they're getting, you know, they're not getting what they deserve. And ironically, one of the things they're or the main start in France was the students were protesting that the government wasn't spending enough on the schools. Yet they're burning down the schools. And so, I mean, that's even worse because now the schools aren't even there or money that could have been spent maybe improving the schools. Now they've got to rebuild what the students have destroyed. So they're making the very problem worse that started the whole protest in the first place. The protesters are making it worse by burning down the schools.
Speaker 1Now, you've been banned from Fox News. I don't know if that's still ongoing. You basically went on and told the truth about the U.S. economy. President Trump tweeted at you. It was a whole situation. Now, I'd love to get your current view here. How dire are things getting out there for the middle class in the United States? And if we do continue to see inflation spiral out of control, cost of living continue to rise, could we see the same type of in America that is occurring in France right now?
Speaker 2Oh, yeah. Oh, definitely. And, you know, the only Fox show that I'm still allowed on is Liz Klayman's show on Fox Business. But pretty much every other Fox Business show and Fox News stopped booking me after the president complained to Fox News about having me on because they didn't like me saying that inflation was getting worse. In particular, I predicted that inflation was going to get worse and that the Trump's policies were not we're actually contributing to higher inflation. And he went ballistic and he said that I'm a jerk and I'm a loser. And I don't realize that prices are collapsing. They're falling for everything. And why is Fox booking somebody like me? So Fox basically kicked me off because they don't want me criticizing the president. CNN, MSNBC, whatever, all these networks stopped inviting me on years ago because I was criticizing the Democrats. So I can't get on any major media outlet in the United States because nobody wants me to criticize their guys. So you have the left wing media that won't let me on because they don't want me exposing the Democrats. And Fox won't let me out because they don't want me exposing the Republicans. Now, I still get on. I get on Newsmax. They'll still have me on. So maybe I don't know if they're considered mainstream. Or when American News will have me on. So there are some conservative outlets that are willing to accept criticism of Trump. But the fact that the Republicans have been so blindly loyal to Trump is, you know, the biggest reason that the Democrats are going to win the win, the midterms in a landslide and why the Democrats are going to win the White House in in twenty twenty eight. So my guess is that maybe sometime in twenty. Twenty nine, Fox will start inviting me on again so I can criticize the Democrats. I mean, they're they're happy to have me criticize the Democrats. But the thing is that I'm the only one that actually can criticize the Democrats, because if you did not criticize Trump for massive deficit spending, you can't criticize the Democrats for doing it because you're a hypocrite. The only one who's not a hypocrite is me, because I criticize the Republicans for doing exactly what the Republicans used to criticize the Democrats for, but now won't because Trump's doing the same thing. And in fact, it's not just the big deficits, it's the corruption. The Democrat, the Republicans were critical of the Biden administration for the self-dealing and the money they were making on the side that at least they covered up with sham transactions and and, you know, you know, accounts, you know, in different names. And they they moved the money between family members, right? I mean, they were laundering the money, but at least they recognized that it was dirty money and they needed to launder it. But the Trump's are doing the same thing as far as self-enrichment and self-dealing. And they're they're making billions as opposed to the millions that the Bidens made. But the Republicans who are criticizing Hunter Biden and, you know, and all that have nothing negative to say about the Trump's. And and I was consistent I was a big critic of the Bidens and I'm a critic of the Trump's when they do the same thing. I don't just forget about, you know, that kind of behavior just because a Republican is the one guilty of it. In fact, once you've done that, you know, you've just established that as the norm. And I'm sure the next Democratic administration is going to be off the charts corrupt now that we've basically said that that's that's OK, that anything goes now. But the White House, you can exploit the power as much as you can to enrich yourself, your family and your friends.
Speaker 1Well, that begs the question, is there a political solution left for America? Because we're seeing such blatant and brazen corruption on both sides of the aisle. And as you mentioned, now they'll probably put a Democrat in the White House and it'll probably be somebody pushing socialists. Everybody gets a handout policies. How do we get through this when there's only two parties and they both appear to be horribly corrupt?
Speaker 2Well, we don't get through it. We have a crisis. That's that's where we're headed, because there there is no policy that's going to have political support that the correct policy is unpopular. So it's never going to be adopted. So all we're going to do is kick the can down the road until we can't do that anymore, until a crisis blows. And a crisis really where there's not going to be any bailouts like we had in 2008. So we're going to have a real crisis and we're going to destroy the value of the currency. We're going to see soaring prices and then we'll probably even see shortages and rationing because the government is probably going to impose price controls. So it's going to get really messy. Now, the question is, in the aftermath of that, with that kind of social unrest and, you know, food shortages and rolling blackouts and and riots and all kinds of bad things happening in that environment, will we be able to do the right thing when we got nothing to lose by doing the right thing? Because it's already as bad as it can get. Right. Everything bad has happened and all the people in power are likely to get voted out of power anyway. Uh, so maybe we'll do the right thing then. Um, but then again, that's just the optimist in me.
Speaker 1Well, tell us about this new gold platform you've got, um, for transacting, doing everyday transactions in gold. Tell us about Europe Pacific Asset Management, uh, the Peter Schiff show and anywhere else you want to direct people online. Yeah,
Speaker 2well, my, my business, Europe Pacific Asset Management, europac.com is our website. That's my registered investment advisor. And if you've got a portfolio, stocks, bonds, I really suggest that you contact us and transfer an account for us to manage, because I think that's a great way to do it. And I think that's a great way to do it. Most people's portfolios are really going to get wiped out. Uh, especially if you have a lot of bonds, whether it's treasury bonds, corporate bonds, beauty bonds, uh, inflation tax is going to destroy you. I mean, you, you, if you're in muni bonds and you think, well, see, I'm, I'm getting tax free. I'm not paying income taxes. Yeah. But you're going to pay the inflation tax through the nose. That's the big tax. So you really got to read the diversify international equities, uh, exposure, whether it's precious metals, industrial metals, energy, alternative energy, agriculture, all this stuff is going to get more valuable, especially with AI. I mean, if AI creates more productivity, it's going to lead to more demand for resources. Uh, and so, you know, owning those resources, owning that capital is going to provide a bigger return because the return on labor is going to be going down. If you're just a worker and you're selling your labor, that's not worth as much because I can just have an AI agent, do your job cheaper and faster. And I don't have to worry about, you know, getting sued. You know, I can't, I can't get sued for sexual harassment or, you know, discrimination. You're not going to call in sick. You're not going to get pregnant. I mean, you know, nothing's going to happen. I got it. I got, I got basically a 24 hour, seven day a week slave that that's the best worker I've ever had. Right. So the return on, on manual labor is going to go down. Now that doesn't mean that people's standard of living doesn't go down because if we have so much more productivity, but on a relative basis, owning capital, owning resources will be even more valuable because, you know, you don't need to labor anymore as, as a factor of production. So you've got to, you've got to have these kinds of investments. And so, and so go to Europe Pacific Asset Management. And if you don't own any gold and silver, you should buy gold and silver, right? Now, I think we're at great prices and we've got great prices at Shift Gold. It, you can, you know, shop around. It's hard to find better prices, but we also have a great service. We have great people to help you. We don't get, we don't get you into numismatics or proof sets or any of that crap, just highly reputable bullion bars and coins. And my newest venture launching from Shift Gold is T-Gold. And you can go directly to tgold.com and T-Gold is where we're buying gold, but we're storing it for you. You're buying it near spot, gold and silver. We're not charging any storage right now. Eventually we might, but it won't be much. But we're going to build out a platform where you can get a debit card, a secure credit card, where you can move gold to other people's accounts where they can send gold to your account. So you can transact in it. Eventually we want to have it so you can not only withdraw the physical, which you can do right now, but you can draw, withdraw it in a token. So you can take out, tokenize gold, you know, off a blockchain, just put it on a wallet that you might have, where you have your other fiat crypto. Maybe you have some Bitcoin or some other shit coins, whatever, but you can also hold tokenized gold in the same wallet. But when you're holding tokenized gold, you got something real. You own the gold. The token is just a receipt, evidence of your own ownership of gold. When you own Bitcoin, it doesn't evident that you own anything other than the Bitcoin. You know, so it's like if you go and check your coat and they give you a claim check, when you have tokenized gold, you actually have a claim check. You can turn your claim check into an actual coat. When you own Bitcoin, you just have a piece of paper that you can't turn into anything. You can't go back and get a coat for it because there's nothing behind it. You know, you just got a little, little ticket that, you know, you're not going to be, it's not going to keep you warm on a cold night, like, like an actual coat. So when you own T-gold, or if you withdraw a token, that's actually where I got the T, tokenized gold. But when you have tokenized gold, you actually own gold. So it, that's really digital gold. Bitcoin is digital fool's gold. So it's a big difference. So people can go to T-gold right now and T-gold.com and set up your account.
Speaker 1Great. I'm going to put all those links in the description below. Peter, as always, really appreciate you coming on the show and sharing your knowledge with the audience. Oh, my pleasure.
Speaker 2And I do it on my own show. Again, don't forget to listen to the Peter Schiff show podcast on schiffradio.com or on my YouTube channel, which if you want to see me as well as hear me, then you want to listen on, on Peter Schiff YouTube channel.
Speaker 1Thank you for joining us today on Commodity Culture. Earn up to a 4% annual yield on your physical gold paid in gold ounces through Monetary Metals. Go to monetary-metals.com slash commodity to find out how to put your gold to work for you. Link is in the show notes below.
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