BIG GAME BREAKDOWN: Ohio State-Iowa, Alabama-Mississippi State, Miami-Clemson & MORE!

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Smash that subscribe, smash that like and comment. Join us in the chat, aka the Cover 3 tailgate. We're Brad jumped in. I mean, 751 AM Eastern time. And he came in to the tailgate with some expectations. He knows we got big games, but he says, we need a little pit for Gene Tech breakdown, along with some Michigan Minnesota, some Florida, Missouri, and Baylor, Arizona State, sneaky one in the Big 12 this weekend. Well, guess what, Brad, it might be big. It might be media. It might be rapid fire. But yes, every single one of those games, we are going to touch here in this big game breakdown edition. Also, before we get out of here, a little look back at some of our win totals. I know that was a request to see. What are we sweating? What do we like? What do we celebrate? But I don't know if you've gone through and done your own personal audit yet. But I've already found a Maryland over that I'm going to go ahead and just jump ahead and say like, regretful, you know? Like that's, I don't know how it's going to be coming home. But we can discuss much more of that later on in the show. Now, we don't want to waste any more of your time. So, Taft, let's break it all down. Oh, we got a lot. You know, we got Commander-in-Chief's trophy, getting things started on CBS, noon, eastern time, America's Most Watching Network, the network of stars, that first leg, Navy and Air Force. But then, once we rotate into big time on CBS, it's one of the biggest games of the whole dagum weekend. Number five Ohio State Travels, the Kinnick Stadium to take on number 14, Iowa, Brad Nestler, Charles Davis, Jenny Dell, on the call, fired up for this one as we get the buccas and the spotlight, and really get to look at Julian Sain against a ranked opponent. Because here's what's happened the last three times, Julian Sain is going up against an AP ranked opponent. It's a loss. It's a loss. And it's a loss. Now, it's 15 and 0 as a starter in all these other games. And Ohio State, usually, in the whole Julian Sain era, has been very productive. But against AP ranked opponents, offense has been not quite as dominant. Now, this is a different offense. And Jeremiah Smith is on an absolute sun run, maybe putting together an all-time individual performance. Listen, Tom, we always look at Iowa's defense as one of the deciding factors and whether I was going to be able to be competitive. What do you think Iowa's defense is going to be able to do to create some friction for the buccas? That's a fun little stat you were dropping there, Chip, about them losing three straight against ranked teams. Who were those ranked teams? Yeah, exactly. Yeah, that's an excess Indiana Miami. Iowa belongs in the same boat. Is all three of those teams. They are ranked. There is a number next to their name. I looking at this matchup, I think the question, obviously, is, can Iowa move the ball on Ohio State? And now, your initial reaction to that is, of course, not. It's Iowa. This is Ohio State. We're talking about, but I'm going to point out, I've got, I've gone over a bit in two games against power for competition this year. No, Ohio State's defense has a success rate of only 52.3%. It's allowing negative 0.1 EPA per snap. That's negative 0.07 per dropback and a negative 0.14 per rush. It has not been very good at all. In fact, it's been below average. They have only a pressure rate of 26.4%. They have had two blitz, Texas and Illinois to get pressure on arch-manning and on Kate and Hauser. They have not been able to just rush for. That leaves their defensive backs in one-on-one situations. They're not winning them nearly as often as they did last year. They've been beaten quite a bit. Now, they've also allowed points on 40% of their defensive possessions in those two games and 4.2 points per red zone trip, which is much worse than they were last season. Again, though, all of that said, Texas and Illinois have strong offenses. This is Iowa. We can play the same game. You want to know what Iowa's offense has done in two games against Power 4 competition? Not much. 1.38 points per drive, a success rate of 34.7%, and negative EPA at 0.03 per snap. They're actually been pretty decent dropback game. In passing game, Hank Brown's been pretty good. They've been pretty effective, but they cannot run the ball. And I feel like the one area that Ohio State is truly vulnerable so far this year has been in the run game. Like, that is what has hurt them more than anything. And if Iowa can't run the ball against them, and Iowa, to this point, does not have a single explosive rush on the season. Like, they're getting three. This is three yards in a cloud of dust in the run game. So, I look at this matchup. And to me, I have a difficult time imagining that the Hawkeyes are going to put enough points on the board in this game to win without the big plays, which have been largely absent from their offense so far this year, or without creating turnovers and getting short fields on special teams. Now, Ohio State has four turnovers and four games this year. What that stat doesn't tell you is that three of them have come due to their backup quarterbacks. They mean St. Clair and Luke Faey have dropped back to throw 18 times, and they have thrown three interceptions in garbage time. When the starters are in there, they don't turn the ball over. So, good luck. I just don't see it. I echo Tom. I mean, I was run game against the two decent opponents safe played has been bad. Their passing success rate has been like decent, but their yards for pass is like, what, 62? So, they're throwing it right at the sticks. Two of their three explosives against Michigan were on tip balls. I don't think anything that they're doing is sustainable on offense. I think Ohio State is going to kill them and probably kill them pretty early, as long as they come out like decently sharp. I just, I don't see how Iowa can move the football. They scored one offensive touchdown on Michigan. Like, remember, they had to kickoff return for a touchdown. I don't think Hank Brown's very good at all. I do like some of their receivers, but not enough to like them against Ohio State's secondary. So, I think Ohio State by like 24 plus. Man, bunch of Debbie Downers over here. Yeah, I don't see him in the week. All right, so let me just give you the other side because nobody, nobody thinks myself included is thinks that I was going to go toe to toe with Ohio State possession for possession, right? So, how can they limit them? How can they contain Jeremiah Smith? Do they have an answer there? I will want some to, wants to drag them in the deep end of the water and try to make it ugly and the murky choppy water like make it as ugly as they possibly can. Last year, and this is a different year, different team, but last year they had four one possession losses in those games. In those games, they gave up 16 points, 20 points to Indiana, they gave up 18 points to Oregon, and 26 points to USC. So far below, those offense is numbers. I think that's the only recipe is for them to make this game as ugly as possible. It's what they do. They just did it to Michigan. But this is by far the biggest challenge they'll have slowing down this offense, which has been insane. You know, so how much can they disrupt Julian Sand who doesn't love pressure? You know, and if you do pressure, what the heck are you going to do with Jeremiah on the outside? Like, you can't double them if you're sending six or seven guys. Like, they're going to put somebody in an island. We've seen how that works out. So, I think you've got to, you've got to run the football better than they have, which again, is going to be a challenging task. You got to sneak out some points, maybe in the return game. You know, pick six, something that way. But I do think this is a team that it's their identity. It's what they can do, that can muddy it up and make it, you know, make it ugly. I do worry, though, that their identity is not quite what we're used to seeing, though. Like, listen, we do not apologize for winning games. All right, you win them. You take them. It doesn't matter how you go, but like Michigan lost that game far more than I will want it. And your thought process going into this is like, well, it's an Iowa defense. Maybe they could, you know, frustrate Julian Sand. Maybe they are the one defense that could really take Jeremiah Smith out of the picture. And for Ohio State to prove that it can go to its other weapons consistently and move the ball. Problem is both JJ Buchanan and Andrew Marsh had over 100 yards receiving last week against this team. And that was the Michigan offense. What's Ohio State going to do to it? Like, they have not been defensively what you typically expect of Iowa to this point this year. They looked good in their first three games, but they weren't exactly playing amazing offenses. And they limited Michigan to however 19 points, but Michigan also had that interception at the one yard line. Like Michigan limited itself more than I think Iowa did in that game. So I just don't know, like, it's at home, so that helps. But from what I've seen to this team, I'm not optimistic this is the same I was. We've typically seen in years past. - Yeah, I don't think this is a particularly good Iowa team. Like, I don't think this is one of Kirk's better. Like, on the scoreboard results only. They deserve to be ranked. On how the games played out, they don't. Like, they didn't look meaningfully better than I was state. Like, that was a very disappointing close game. I mean, like, the, that was one of the most improbable wins based on how it played out and down and down based for them to be Michigan. And I just, they're lucky that the rest of the games this week are as like not sexy as they are. Otherwise, they would not be leading big game breakdown. - Okay, bud, get me excited about Alabama Mississippi State. - Yeah, I mean, at least like there's an offense on both sides that you wanna watch. Like, I'm way more excited for this one than I am for Ohio State Iowa to be honest. Like, do I think that Mississippi State can hold up and block Alabama for four quarters? Not really, right? But we have seen Camario overcome some pretty suspect blocking. A couple games at a row now and just do incredible things. And now, it's like, all right, a much better level of competition. And Alabama team that I think you probably have to pencil in for 35 plus with the way this offense is operating. Maybe they'll kind of start slowly. I mean, it's on the road. It's been startful the last time they came out on the road. They started slow in Kentucky. We talked a little bit about that Kentucky game though. Like, you know, Bammett hadn't really seen what they were going to do. Like Kentucky's defense, obviously, they could hold some stuff back. Mississippi State has kind of had to empty the clip now, with defensively a couple of different times against different looking offense. So I think there's a little bit less mystery for Alabama in terms of what the state is going to run defensively. So I do think that they'll start a little bit quicker. Can Camario just keep being a one-man show? Like he's been for Mississippi State and keep them alive in this game? I, you know, we'll see. - Danny, Tom? - Danny, you with us? - I kind of agree. Yeah, yeah. I kind of agree with what Bud was saying. I do think this will be one where Camario will have to pull out the cape just like he's done. I think Alabama's offense continues to get better as Keel and Russell gets more and more comfortable in this system. We're starting to see low Brooks, you know, kind of come into his own. Is a number two Ryan Coleman Williams been playing a little bit better. Like they're getting more explosive. That was an impressive, impressive win that they had against South Carolina. Kind of now you made a team quit on you. I think Homefield, clear with the Cowbells ringing, is gonna play a part in this one. But I do think Alabama is a much better football team top to bottom than Mississippi State is. - Yeah, my concern with this game is I love the quarterback matchup. That is the sexiest part of it with Keel and versus Camario. But can the Mississippi State defense actually keep them in this game for 60 minutes? Because like they did a really good job in that road game against Minnesota. But Minnesota is a much more one-dimensional offense with a quarterback that is an overly mobile like he is very much a pocket passer. And we have seen the last couple of weeks with this Bulldog defense. They struggled against South Carolina who had a very mobile quarterback. And they struggled last week against the Mizzou team that had really strong weapons at receiver. Alabama brings a little bit of both. They've got a mobile quarterback. They have good receivers. They, you know, they can do, like they are a blend of what Mizzou and South Carolina can do and they are far more effective at it. Can Mississippi State really do enough to stop that? And then on the other side, like Mississippi states offensive line has not been good. Alabama ranks 13th nationally in pressure eight. It's 28th and sack rate. They're one of the most blitz heavy teams in the country. They have blitzed a lot. How is the Mississippi State offensive line going to be able to hold up against that? Can Camario handle that pressure? Because what we've seen so far is he has been pressured on 27 of his dropbacks. He's only throwing 12 passes when pressured. He is, his first, his go-to mode when he's under pressure is to scramble. He gets, he takes sacks because of it. When he's blitzed, he doesn't scramble as often, but he's far less accurate with his passes. And we've seen, like you see, his numbers take a pretty steep drop under the blitz compared to when it's just regular pressure or no pressure at all. So I'm guessing we're going to see Alabama blitz a lot in this game until Camario and that offensive line can prove that they can handle it and figure it out. And if they don't, there's gonna be no reason for Alabama to stop doing it. So I love Camario. They've been one of the better stories of the early season, but this is their first real test. Like if Mississippi State comes into this game and beats Alabama or even just like, kind of makes it really close into the fourth quarter, you kind of have to really start taking them, like this isn't just a cute story anymore, like this is a legitimate kind of threat in the SEC. - I would say too, for as much attention as Camario Taylor gets, we probably don't mention Fluff Boffwell enough for the job he's done. He's gone over 100 yards game last three games in a row. He's a really dynamic pack, but I do think that will be a much stiffer challenge against Alabama's defense. And if you can make them one dimensional and you're forcing Camario into longer, third down situations, it just makes things a lot trickier for them. So I think that's a matchup to keep an eye on. If Mississippi State can keep Fluff going, if they can get that run game going, I like their chances a lot more, but I think it's gonna be a much stiffer challenge to do that. - Yeah, I think when you look at Boffwell, it's like he's gonna get favorable looks to run into probably because at this point, you should be and will be worried about Camario like first, second, last. And I agree with Dana. I think Boffwell's like a nice back, but he's not like a surefire top half of the draft type thing to where it's like, oh man, I'm worried about him beating me Alabama against even looks. Now against favorable looks, I think I trust him to go get yardage. So we're gonna have to see like how much coverage Bamba plays, Missouri played a lot of coverage. Missouri did not bring the pressure very much and they just said, hey, can you be patient? Can our front win? And the answer actually was yes and yes. You know, Camario over the course of that game, like did show a lot of patience and Missouri's front did win like a lot. So I kind of think Bamba's front eats them up and Camario makes a lot of really awesome plays, but also probably some of the negatives too. Like it's hard to just play perfect quarterback when you have that much pressure around you. We saw Mississippi State play South Carolina, we saw South Carolina play Alabama, South Carolina very much, you know, bottled up but did end up by the end of a blowout loss. You know, wrecking up some pretty decent offensive numbers. I know fluff might be, might be a little banged up here. Maybe not. You know, he got a little dinged up, but I think he's-- - Life is a run-and-backed chip. - Yes, there you go. So is there a chip? Is there a win? - I'll see you down. - Only in the SCC, yeah. I mean, if you play run-and-back in a big 10 SCC, yeah, if you play in any of those other conferences, it's a cakewalk, but man, you get hit by one SCC lineback or you're lucky to be alive. - Can Mississippi State have success moving the football on the ground? - Because South Carolina is not, I'm not putting South Carolina at the top of the offensive line chart. You know, I'm not like, I'm not looking at that necessarily as a, again, they just, it was a blowout game, game stake got a little funny. They were just were never getting any stops, but at the end of the day, everything in the wash, like South Carolina did have a little bit of success moving the ball against this Alabama defense, more so than we had seen so far from the top. - I do wonder if part of that though with Alabama was more concerned about making sure Lennoris didn't tear him up on the ground. So they might have been willing to concede a little bit with the actual run game, with the running backs. I, I don't know. Like, I think what you're probably going to see is what you, it'll be similar to what you see from Camario. I think that they will hit a couple of big plays, but I think from a down to down basis, it's probably gonna be kind of ugly. I think that if I'm, I'm gonna be somewhat permissive of the run game. You know, like until you can run me out of those shell looks, I'm gonna let you run it. Like, passing is a lot more efficient than running when done well. And if you can get four or five yards of carry, cool. Like I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll force some field goals. I'm very confident Keylon's gonna go in there and score a lot of touchdowns. - Well, also they can try to do with a lighter box. That's what they'll probably try to do to stop the run with the lighter box. They're not gonna load up the box until, you know, until they start proving they can run. 'Cause I don't, they're not gonna be happy giving up four and a half yards of carry or whatever it is. But I do think they'll see if they can stop it with a light box, which they might have success with. - The other really interesting thing is, you know, Zach Arnett is the coordinator for this Mississippi state defense. He does bring a lot of crazy pressures from, from all over the place, you know? And like, how does Keylon Russell handle that? In the first half of, like the first 20 minutes of the FSU game, FSU showed a lot of different pressure packages they had not shown before. They were coming off the by-week. And Keylon didn't handle it very well to start. And then I suspect that like, at, at halftime, they were gonna get this solved and cook FSU in the second half. The Rangel A brought those adjustments a little bit earlier 'cause they were able to go inside, you know, kind of do what you would do during halftime, get the iPads out to hey, if we get this again, right? Like, just note. 'Cause college teams don't have that many adjustments off certain looks, right? Like, if you're seeing a new defense, I mean, Danny can tell you, like, you're getting kind of one or two things. Like, there's not like seven different things you're right out of this new set on defense. So, you know, how quick, like, I think Mississippi State has got to find a way to, to jump them early. 'Cause if, if they make it stay like two-dimensional, I don't think they have much of a shot. - Yes, you guys. - For a state defense, for a state defense might have helped them prepare same three, three, five. Like, you were preparing for those looks, a lot of those blitzes. that gives BAM a little bit edge and preparation kind of reviewing what they went over for Florida State. A little bigger picture question for you guys as far as Mississippi State's concerned. Starting this game, you know, their next four games are Alabama at LSU, Oklahoma, Texas. They're 4-0 now. You tell them that they're 5-3 after that stretch that they pick it. Yes. Yeah. I mean, somebody asked in here, if you're holding a Camaro Taylor Heisman ticket, would you sell it now? I would say yes, right? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, if you want to, yeah. Yeah. I mean, Tom made that reference, right? When you were talking about the three names at the top? Yeah. That's the one that I would. It's like. It's like, yeah, this is great that it's here and he's having an awesome, awesome season, but projecting the Heisman trophy is a little bit of a different discussion altogether. Yeah. And like, if you're holding a Camaro, what, 70-1 from preseason, I would cash that out based on who they have to play still. It's largely like an November award and it's almost certainly going to be going to a team that's in the playoffs, like with almost no exceptions in this, like Lamar Jackson in the one year, but they were at least like alive for the playoffs, you know, pretty deep into the season. Yeah. They tied. They finished Todd with Clemson in the Atlantic Division standings, but had the head-to-head loss at Clemson that ended up propelling the Tigers in 2016, 2017 a little bit. But I always think about Geno Smith as the September Heisman. That is like my sort of like patient zero September Heisman. Geno Smith takes college football by storm and we're like, "This guy, oh man, you ain't seen nothing like this guy." Could the Heisman winner be in this game, though? Yeah. Not named him Mario? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's Keylin. Not Keylin. Keylin, excuse me. Yes, Keylin. Yes, Keylin. Yeah. If he's the head of the trophy winner, call me whatever you want, you know. I think it's the Keylin who wins the Miami Notre Dame game. Right. Really? Yeah, I do. Yeah. But if it's not, then I think it's Keylin. Like, I think trying to death's case is dead. Woo. I mean, if Mensa keeps playing the way he's played all year and then goes and plays well against Notre Dame, like, what other defense is going to stop him? He'd probably run away with it at that point. You're going to have like big time, you know, but I was, what if Notre Dame wins? I don't see. I would say Notre Dame. It's a media voting thing as Notre Dame's quarterback with a last name car with an undefeated record and big time numbers. I think the receiver catching passes on Saturday for Ohio State might have a chance. He's the biggest threat because he's he's going to shatter. Right. He's all every. Yeah. That's where they only just go to him every time. Every single game comes back with a new note about another record that he shattered or another spot he's moved up on all time lists. I mean, he's he's going to go down as the greatest Ohio State receiver of all time. While we're on the high has been conversation, like John Sumerall told Trinidad Shamless that if he had a vote, he would give it to him. John, that's why you don't have a vote, John. We can't be, we can't be deciding our vote on September, you know, 25th, buddy. We have to let the whole season play out, John. Come on. Full body of work, man. You wait until the recipe's done. Bake that cake. All right. Coming up on the other side, speaking of John Sumerall, whether he's debating a Heisman ballot or not, he needs to be making sure that this Gator's team is locked in for a road trip after that big win in the swap. Where are the matchup edges that can be found going up against Missouri and more? Next. Back here on the cover three podcast, Florida, hit in the road after the big win heading to co-mode take on Missouri, Austin Simmons and, you know, Aaron Filo, pretty good quarterback matchup that we got here. But this Missouri team far from perfect, you know, something that's already been exposed and discussed a little bit here, DK, first word to you, we got a lot of Florida talk. I mean, you know, big, big riser, you know, everyone's been all in, Gator Dan, what are they going to be facing in your eyes when going up against this Missouri team outside of the hangover, let down, got to stay focused, SEC road game, me grunder, you know, but like, what about the players on the field, the team that they've got? What's going to really cause some problems potentially for the Gators? This is where Gator Dan might be a little bit of, you might play a little heel roll here, because I do think this is a tricky spot for them and I do think it is about handling the success, handling everybody telling you how good you are. We were just having the Heisman conversation. I do think Jayden Ball is somebody that we should mention, because if this Gator team continues to be the surprise of the season and they do start getting in the SEC championship race, I think he's got the best chance of any running back in the country. I think Missouri's got pretty good weapons, Austin Simmons is playing great now, his stats are a little deceiving and that Mississippi state game, he had several balls that were just a little bit loose, but man, he can spin it and if he gets a little hot, hits a couple of those, which you've seen other quarterbacks be able to take advantage of some of the weaknesses in the secondary. I think that could be a problem, but I think this will be a game where if you're Florida and this thing that makes him so impressive, their physicality is the thing that jumps out to you. Can they impose their will? Can they get Jayden Ball going against Missouri in Como and established Jayden Ball? They do that and they're able to do that, they'll walk in there and they'll win. If they can't, if they're able to, like we haven't seen Philo have a game where he's got to win it for the Gators just yet, maybe this is the one he kind of comes of age, but I do think this will be a closer game. So, I don't know if you guys can see this or not, but like this is something I think makes Missouri, if Taff can share my screen here, like look at all the passes attempted and completed between 15 and 20 yards, like Missouri's not just throwing the ball over the top, this is from our friends at Statsbond by the way, but like this is not a normal distribution pattern for a college offense, like Austin Simmons has an absolute cannon for an arm and like look at all these like deep outcuts they attempt, like look at this, like this is not something you see normally in college, like most of these guys you see who are playing on Saturdays, not Sundays, they can't make those throws between 15 and 20 and he's just like dotting these guys pretty consistently in that like kind of, you know, 14 to 20 yard outrange. So I do think it's like a bit of a different experience to defend Missouri that then you normally see, like he's not a big guy, like as far as attacking them in the middle of the field, and also I think it opens up some of the comeback stuff on the outside for them because you do realize like he'll throw those whole shots consistently, so you get a little bit more sink if you're going to play cover two. Do you dare him to throw the ball over the top because like the real deep stuff, he's not been hitting it all. You know, it's sort of just the stuff you can throw on a line, like like some of those deep outs and a couple of those like deep ends off the hash. And it's mostly just a Kaden Lee and Donovan Aluba Day, like I mean, it is almost all the work has been going to two very, very good receivers by my eyes. But like that's, I think that's the advantage there is they're not huge, but they're athletic players who can be able to tort, you know, turn around to be able to make those, those catches into the sideline. Tom, was I right that wasn't Austin Simmons high on the no yak? Yeah. I was thinking about those out throws and like all the way across the field, those kind of throws aren't necessarily going to set your receivers up, but it does not mean the quarterback is bad, right? It actually means he's making the throws that are even more difficult. So an interesting, but what's your line, you like their corners, not their safeties or you like their safeties, not their corners? I actually think I do like for this corners. I know that they've been criticized a little bit, but like, Kermani's made some really good plays too. And I think some are all kind of stays on him because he sees there's more potential there. Safety's, I don't know. I think they're okay, like not, not special, I, you know, very high on Florida, obviously, I don't know if I buy them. It's like a top five team right now. Like that was still a pretty close game, you know, decent shot in the third quarter and then you have the kickoff return and the strip sack. You know, we'll see how this goes. I think Florida wins because like if Bothwell can run the ball on Missouri, I'm pretty confident Both and those guys can do so, but, you know, like, if you think they're like a legitimate top five team, then at Missouri should not be a sweat. Yeah, you guys have talked about a lot of the stuff I was looking at in this matchup. Like, your initial read when you see Florida at Mizzou based on how they've played and just based on Mizzou's history is that, okay, Florida's going to win because like, I don't need to, I don't know what the member with the stat is, but obviously we all know Missouri has not done well against ranked games or winning teams, all that kind of stuff. What, as you guys have touched on, like the one thing I do believe can make this game more interesting than maybe you're thinking is that Mizzou passing attack because Austin Simmons does have an NFL arm. He does have two guys who I think could be NFL receivers. I don't know if they're first-second round guys, but I do believe they'll get drafted and they will be in camps. When you look at Florida's defense, like, their past defense, they ranked 72nd nationally in EPA for dropback and their 98th and pressure rate. And if you're not getting pressure on Austin Simmons and you're just kind of sitting there letting him stand in that pocket and sling it, well, Bud just showed you the graph of what he's capable of doing within that kind of time. So I do think that Florida needs to pressure him. I think that, you know, Danny touched on it, like, Florida's had two big games in a row. The beat Auburn. They had the huge win last week against Ole Miss. Now they've suddenly gone from being like a preseason unranked team to they're in the top 10. You have to handle that, like, in your locker room, you can't let these guys start sniffing their own farts and thinking that they've made it and they're great. like nah man you still got to go on the road and play pretty good. team here this week can't just have that kind of letdown. So how do they handle that in the weekend, but I still think the difference will be made in that while I believe Mizzou, like Auburn and like Ole Miss, will be able to put points on the board against this Florida team. Can they keep up over 60 minutes? Because so far, this Florida offense, like good luck. Like they are the number one in the country in points per possession. They are not the most efficient, but they hit a ton of big plays. They're able to grind you down with their run game and Aaron Filos doing enough in the passing game to make you have to respect it, which allows the run game to continue to thrive. So like they're probably going to get 40. Just to be, you know, like when you think of what they've done against everybody else, can Mizzou get 40? We'll see. A lot of it goes down to tackling as well, right? Like Missouri will allow you to throw it, but they come up and tackle it really well. And I do think that Buster Falkner at Florida is a really good job of getting you off balanced to where like you're not able to like, like, set your feet and square up and tackle well. I guess we'll see. I also think Florida's athletes and space is the greatest challenge Missouri's defense has faced this season. All right. Florida's skill guys or an all-star team of Mississippi state Kansas and Troy's skill guys. This is what I was presenting. I hadn't even thought about the composite, but I just knew it was like dot, space, space, space, next dot. I mean, I was like, have they played anybody who would even start for Florida? But I think maybe Evans, Evans would get some run, the Mississippi state's beaster. But I don't think he would start. I do think too. I know in the NFL, it's been a story about the home field advantage, but I do think home field matters a ton. And I think it's tough for the never to play in these road environments, the parodies there across all leagues. I just think this is tricky, tricky spot for the gators. But against the spread, we're not dealing with crazy. Isn't home team against the spread right now, clocking it like 53 or 54? I mean, it is. It's not like it isn't the NFL. Shout out to the bear's last night, making me a little nervous. NFL's winning a lot at home. Yeah. Against the spread too. Like, not to stay up and against the spread. I think it might be specifically against the thread of buddy mindset, me a stat in the NFL, what it was. You're given, you're just saying that it's because it's soldier field. It's not the bears are superior football team. I mean, they to beat you with case cano, okay? That was the specific stat in the NFL was home teams getting three and a half points or more cover 76 per ton of time. No hopes, Sundays, all these underdogs just showing up to somebody else's house. Just just just ready to lose. NFL loser. Lou St. Danny, it sounds like there's a loser's mentality in the NFL. We really hate to see it. Look for the gators to bring that to show up ready to walk in your trap and things of that nature. All right. Speaking of the Miami Hurricanes are going to death Valley. Oh, oh, so the Clemson Tigers were able to put to bed the truly disastrous outlook that I think many. I mean, we engaged in the conversation because it was a legitimate what if they are able to outlast an overcome a double digit deficit against North Carolina. They go on the road and they are able to outlast cow. So now after really being in full skies falling disaster zone, we got a couple of wins. You know, we got got a little bit of maybe a little bit more confidence. Well, here comes Miami putting the Tigers in a very unusual situation. We are not used to seeing Davos Sweeney's team as a double digit underdog, nearly a 20 point underdog against an ACC opponent, much less anyone. Tom, you actually, you said on Twitter today. You said follow him at Tom Frennelly that you your commitment to this show, not just the cover three podcasts, but two, the big game breakdown on September the 29th, probably eclipse anything that anyone else is going to do. That's why you're the number one college football media personality because you went where no one else was brave enough to go. And that is deep under the hood of the Clemson offense. Okay. You know, horrifying it is under the hood of the Clemson offense. Yes. Yeah. What did you learn, Tom? You think bud and I were down on the eye when the I will I will take a boy. Do I have something for you? Oh, God. Yeah. Okay. I'm curious as what you got. I got some stuff too, buddy. And it is, it is a rage fan. I could not be happier that this is the game. I'm going to have to watch for Saturday night, man. I got to tell you. I mean, I'll be locked into this one. Listen, it's not good. I'll start there. Like, is there a squirrel's nest under the hood? There might be no, it's a, I mean, honest to God, I have more faith in the I will offense than I do the Clemson offense to this point. Like, I think I always got a better shot of going and putting points up on a higher state than Clemson does on my amy. Like, there are, I'll start with the quarterback. That is the most important position. Is not, is that not right? I'm a hundred and 34 qualified quarterbacks in the country. Tate Reynolds ranks a hundred and thirty second in EPA per dropback. You ranks a hundred and twenty second and pass your efficiency in my own quarterback rating metric that I have designed that I believe better measures at college quarterback because it doesn't just measure their ability as a thrower. You ranks a hundred and thirty first. Yeah. I bring this up because if you're going to get to Miami and you're going to be competitive with Miami, their vulnerable position right now is in the secondary. They have injuries back there. They are banged up. But in order to exploit Miami secondary, you have to have a passing game. I'm just in dozen. I just don't see them being able to throw the ball, getting Miami out of heavy box looks to stop the run game. And I think Miami will be able to just stop the run game because of it. And you look at Clemson's offense like, yeah, they beat North Carolina. Yeah, they beat Cal. But I was up until 2am watching that Cal Clemson game. And let me tell you something. It wasn't because they were looking good on offense. It was because Cal was looking a little bit worse like this is a bad team. And the problem is Clemson at least in years past when the offense has not been a juggernaut has been able to rely on a good defense. That is not the case this year. They rank a hundred and ninth in defensive success rate. And it's not just the LSU game. There are 101st and explosive play rate allowed now where they improve is there 63rd and like EPA per snap and they're more in like the 50 to 70 range and all the other defensive stats I care about. It's just you can't live in that 50 to 70 range on defense when your offense is in that 100 to 138 range. Like this is not a good football team. They're just not. They have benefited from playing a couple of winnable games in the ACC the last two times out. But now they are playing a real team. And I don't you know we've talked about Miami schedule like we would hope that this at Clemson game when you looked at the schedule before the season began would be like one of the spots are like all right we're going to learn about Miami here at least. They might not lose this game but we'll learn more about who they are. I don't think we're going to learn anything about Miami in this game. I think they're going to blow the doors off of Clemson. Yeah. I've had an awakening being around all you guys with the analytics and Bud just bought up a spray chart. So I don't need a screen grab for this one because I just have my own that I made up. So this is my spray chart of Clemson's offense. And you see there's the quarterback right there's the quarterback and there's behind there's a line of scrimmage. That up here is downfield throws. Now a lot of sideways stuff over here. A lot of bubble screens. These are a couple crossing routes. And then every once in a while they do the thing where they fake the bubble screen and they try to throw it over here and sometimes it works. It is hard to watch Clemson's offense right now. It is hard to watch. There is something you guys are significantly overlooking that could throw a wrench into this game. Have you guys checked the weather forecast? Because apparently there are remnants of that nor Easter that are headed down this way. I think that's the one thing if I'm Mario Crystal Ball that makes me a little bit nervous. Like well a lot of his made about the Boston College Virginia Tech game like oh Virginia Tech's awful. Virginia Tech was the way better football team. The weather just impacted that game. I mean we saw the Giants Titans two baby bad football teams but it looked way worse because of the weather. If the weather neutralizes Darian Mensa and his ability to throw the football which is pretty common if it's as bad as it could be then it's sort of a crapshoot. But if the weather conditions are fine this should be a pretty dominant Miami win. But that's the only way I see Clemson keeping this thing close. Has Dampel just gone like full supervillain and has like a weather machine now? So he's got a lot of direct line to the man above. Come on. You know better than anybody. Is this coming down from the north of the north easter or is this the left over a polo? It's two hurricane coming across. Yes two Pacific based hurricanes that are sending double remnants across the whole United States this week. And so that's what I think is going to be sweeping down and causing a lot of a lot of issues across the country in terms of being able to you know go out there and throw the ball 45 times. We're the number one college football and number one weather podcast. You know take a look. Reynolds is a true freshman, right? He's like 17, 18 years old. He's a young man. So he'll be trying to avoid an absolute kill shot from a linebacker who is in the same recruiting class as Derek Stingley and Garrett Wilson. Yes. Motore is out there just destroying teenagers right now. I mean, it's, it's, it's mean. You know, and are we concerned at all? I mean, I guess they would be more concerning if they were going against an offense that would challenge them more. But the defense injuries are starting to mount for Miami. I do think that's a real thing. That's, and I think that that was something that was, to Tom's point, could be exposed against a Notre Dame, you know, maybe could be exposed against just more of a downfield passing attack than the fake bubble screen, check it up there right let's go. Hope he can run under it. Wes go on the big return, right? This pass against Cal. Yeah. Yeah. Special teams of, of the seven passes that take Reynolds has thrown more than 15 yards in the air this year against power five teams. One has been completed. So it does confirm my chart. I think that one. Yeah, Danny, your chart is like scary. That's close. Yeah. Quarter, quarterbacks in that photographic memory. I mean, he just drew it right there from right there from scratch. Yeah, like almost all of them were non-competitive throws. Yeah. I don't know what that definition is, but yeah. I am. One's where the guy doesn't have a chance to catch it. I'm guessing. Danny just mentioned the Hokies. I am. We don't, we don't need to go like a full expansive. We can pick it up a little bit. Make sure we get some wind totals locks recap. I don't need to promise weekend. What? My favorite game of the weekend. Yeah. So let's, let's start to peel it apart. I mean, I think you have really good quarterback play in this one. I think you have two offenses that are probably a lot better. Honestly, then their numbers show because both of them I've played, there's been six or seven games to shoot it. We're like legitimately like you just could not pass the football, right? A lot across college football. One was Pitt UCF. And then last week, you guys are right. I went back and watched this Boston College against the Hokies. So if you kind of take out those, these offices have looked pretty damn good in the remaining games. Like Pitt had a little bit of struggles. I guess against Q's, but at the same time, like Q's is a real defensive front. And I think Narduzzi realized, like, okay, like Q's can't score on us. We're not going to just screw this up with with defensive scores allowed. I'm interested to see like who can hold up against the pressure packages of the other. You know, Narduzzi typically eats like mid to bad college quarterbacks alive. And like to me, like a higher rate, you know, than than normal, like then normal defenses to do. And I've seen him clinic a couple times. And he's like very openly and honestly talked about this. And I thought it was just refreshing. He was like, look, sometimes you get a drink. May, right? And if I like, okay, a guy who's going one, one or whatever, he's going to probably be able to adjust to some of this but stuff that we do and beat me. Now, we'll get him sometimes, but like most these guys that we face in college as a college defense, most of these guys can't read this. They can't process this fast enough. I think Gruck Meyer might be able to like, he's looked really good so far and like balls out on time. It's accurate. You know, now to Ryan's point in the chat, Hokies, oh, Hokies went to Maryland. There's not age quite as well given that UCLA just went in there and smoked them. That also could be a bit of a letdown game for Maryland. You know, like that was a lot of going. Let go of the, let him go of the rope right there. You know, we also get our doozy Franklin guys like that was kind of a nasty back and forth. I guess you can call it a rivalry, but certainly like some, some animosity there. So I'm curious to watch this one for sure. Yeah, there's animosity a little bit. I am suspecting that neither of them has an extremely high opinion of the other. But if we ask them to do a code rankings in May and fill out their ballots, it's actually one of the ones I would want to see where they have each other, you know, on there. I think that it'd be very, very interesting. I like both of them. Let it be, but yeah, just I like both because they're not afraid to walk right. Okay, we real quickly here. Notre Dame's going to play the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill noon Eastern time in Kenan Memorial Stadium. I listen, I don't think North Carolina has a very good shot of winning this game because offensively, I don't think they can do enough against. But it's learned something Saturday, right? This is a learn something Saturday because I do think defensively North Carolina can pose some challenges for Notre Dame that they haven't really totally seen. I can, we saw them struggle a little bit offensively against Michigan State, which to me has been another good defense so far although they've had some injuries last week, right? Don't know. They'll be very good for the next few weeks, maybe for rest of the season. I digress. I do wonder, I want to see what Bill Bell check in this North Carolina defense can do to see Jay Carr to see if they can make them uncomfortable to see if they can limit the run game or if they could take away the passing game and make them Notre Dame prove that they can run the ball consistently. So this is a learn something Saturday for the Irish. I expect they will win the game, but it could be far uglier than most anticipate. I'll be looking forward to see that as well. Michigan and Minnesota, Minnesota coming back from Seattle playing host to the Wolverines. Yeah, I mean, like Daniel. On the face, baby, get the blow on the face. They're playing with some confidence right now. Michigan, they better not feel sorry for themselves after that loss. I learned something Saturday. We'll find out because Michigan was a team that maybe if they get Bryce underwood, Bryce underwood had his best game as a quarterback against Iowa. It just, you know, came up short. So is he figured out as he is him and Jason Beck starting to kind of figure out what they're doing is getting a better rapport. There's receivers. It sure looks like it, but they should be able to handle Minnesota, but Minnesota now is feeling pretty good about themselves. I think that's a sneaky good game. Yeah, I feel like my primary takeaway for Michigan from that Iowa game was that I do believe Jason Beck has learned what Bryce underwood is good at and they are just kind of hammering that. Yep. PJ Braveheart. I like that. We do have some news on the bill. Do you want to do bill news and all this? Is it breaking like right now? It's no, no, sorry. Somebody just sent this to me. It was from last night. Never mind. Okay. I do. I mean, there was House of Republicans saying, you know, sorry, Ted Cruz, we're not coming back to vote on this. It's not a priority. We don't think it's going to get through the rules committee. So. Oh, well, right. That's where I want. Hey, talk about get up off the mat. USC Washington. It's an anxiety bowl. Hey, you want to talk? This is fun. This feels old school because, um, did you see the Kanzano column? No, no, I'm sure it was not friendly. Hey, this is the way it was framed. Jen Cohen is used to working with adults. Oh, yeah. Like K like Kaylyn DeBoer and Chris Peterson, she is not going to handle any of this childishness. Then on top of that, you know, we start to get a little bit more reporting that indicates that perhaps that big buyout could be handled. And that's 70, right? 70, 70. And I believe that was from Zenitz, right? Didn't send it somewhere that yesterday. Yeah. Yeah. So Zenitz had the story yesterday. There was the Kanzano column, which again is column, but that sends to me the idea that people within the USC community are ringing all the bells. Like I, we need to ramp up the pressure on on our head coach right now. And, um, we get to see how the surgeons respond. I do not think that Washington is the monster that's ready to rise up and, you know, end this thing. It could be, it could be a win that does help USC feel better about itself. I don't know if it changes the quality of the team or the outlook for them this season. What, what do you think's going to happen here? Can I be honest with you? Sure. If I'm hearing that if I don't get my act together, my bosses are going to pay me 70 million to go away. He's not going to tank the season. I'm just like, Oh, no, the pressure. Oh, no. I'm going to be wealthy beyond my wildest dreams. I'm just going to do what I do. And then I'll go get a job somewhere else. I don't know. I do not do that as a realistic possibility here. I think they come out and they win this game. And it is. And this is my words. I think that I will take it as an empty calories win that you got to beat Washington and feel good about yourself, but that the team under the uniforms is not the quality that we're used to. And so don't get distracted by what happens, but at least in terms of the churn of it, they can get back off the mat and win this game by double digits. You know what you want to see? You want to see what LSU did to Texan M last weekend? Yeah. Like a similar point spread. They took control. They proved they were a, you know, playoff caliber team against a team that was maybe a little overrated feels very similar to this game. You're at home, Washington's a little overrated. This is your opportunity to to show people that you're legit, get back on winning track. Also, like, to be fair and to be realistic, like they lost to Oregon last week, not great, pretty bad for the narrative overall. But I do believe they are likely to be Washington this week, because I don't think Washington's been very good. And then based on what we saw from Penn State, they might go on the road the week after that and beat Penn State. So at that point, they're like six and one. And it's like everybody's like, well, no, they're still in the picture. And it'll still come down to like the Ohio State, the Indiana game. Maybe that road tripped Wisconsin. But I don't think like the, the, the, the sky is totally collapsing yet. I think the team is still good. I think it's interesting that it, the messages seem to be getting sent coming out of the loss. The Desmond Stevens hit, like just the overall sort of scene there. I think, you know, it, it's disrespectful to Dylan Rayola. But I heard it posed as like, and you couldn't even beat Oregon with their backup quarterback, like their backup quarterback doesn't have. What I guess 24 career starts, you know, right? But yeah, just interesting sort of other, other pieces as, as they're moving throughout stakes and storylines, I don't think it changes the quality of the team. Yes, but you know, like also UCLA cross town probably does ramp up the pressure a little bit. Yeah. I'm like, they're doing a good job there. Oh my gosh. They play Oregon in two weeks. What if they have a tighter game? That's a CBS game. That's going to be a banger. Yeah. We should go, is that which what are you? What's your roadside bud make the call? Yeah, let's go. No, no, just a guarantee it. Like Chesney would, what are you talking about T-Bull during the afternoon window? Like last week is the season not done yet? That was a deep cut on the finger by the way. I got that thing is, is it healing? Okay, it's yeah, okay, slowly. But yeah, I guess we're old. I real quick two games here. I want to highlight before we hit a break and then start to look at win totals. Before we get out of here, BYU at TCU. I mentioned this one because BYU just continues to sit there. And we talked about it in at the end of the show, like in re-ranking. Does the number feel like it matches the team based on what you've seen? I would say you probably say I haven't seen enough, but they were off. And they have a zero in the lost column. And there was a high preseason perception of them. Is TCU good enough to be able to turn this into a learn something Saturday? Yeah. Okay, because I think TCU. TCU's run defense is not that bad. Okay, vibes wise, TCU feels down bad. It feels like they're looking at this and they're like, oh, God. I mean, like this is a big like media versus model game, you know, like the models, even before you account for the fact that BYU played like 53 out of the 60 minutes against the Colorado State backup, they're like, yeah, you know, BYU use a solid kind of 17 to 25 range team. TCU is probably somewhere between like 38 and 50 and thus the spread is, you know, slightly under a touchdown in a conference road game. That'll be played a fairly low pace, right? According to BYU fans on Twitter, this is an absurd line and they'll win by 40. So I guess we will see what happens. It's like, yeah, this will be interesting, though, because if TCU can really stop the run and they've been okay with that this year. Yeah, but offensively, it has just been really, really, like, I mean, not only bad, but just why you throw if you if you stop their run, like you might just be a rock fight. I think BYU, they're better than they were last year throwing the ball. Let's ask her's a problem. They got the tall transfer Casper from organs, a good target for bear. There's a little more comfortable. I don't know. I was telling Brian Kelly saw BYU in person. And he was, he was really impressed with their, like, the physicality on offensive and defensive line. It's a similar, it's a similar point spread that Florida is against Missouri. It's like a similar type of game. I think it's time for BYU to, like, show that they're worthy of the love that they've been getting. Do you know who's 11th nationally an EPA per dropback? Fairbock, Mark. Fairbock, yeah, yeah. It's a good season. I think though, like, I just, my, my concern here is I think when chip you touch it on a TCU's offense is bad. And look at what they did with the changes at OC. They brought in the quarterback and it just hasn't worked. And I think that this is one of those situations where it's not discussed as much nationally because it's TCU. But we've talked about a lot of coaches that I think are on the hot seat. I think Sonny Dykes is very much in trouble because he's tried to change. Like he did that kind of, like, desperation thing that you see coaches do when they kind of know they're in this situation. Where he's gone to with the new offense. Josh Hoover leaves and Joshua has been Mendoza, but he's still playing pretty damn well for the Indiana Hoosiers. And you have taken a significant step backwards. If TCU loses this at home, like, if BYU does do what BYU fans think they're going to be capable of doing in this game, we might be having a Sonny Dykes kind of press conference on Sunday. Sonny Dykes put together back to back Sonny Dykes put together back to back nine and four seasons and signed a multi year contract extension this April through the 2030 season. I look at BYU and, like, this is just where, like, the markets are not matching up with perception at all, right? They're minus 200 to go nine and three. Even if you figure they drop Notre Dame, I mean, like that, that means you lose two of these conference games, guys. TCU, Iowa State, UCF, Arizona State, Utah, okay, Baylor, Kansas, Sensi. Yeah, right. Mark, the market's been, what are they to go 10 or two? Yeah, that's, can you get that? Famous, famously correct plus one, 70. I mean, and Alabama was favored to make the playoff, you know, before they did it. If you're purely power rating the big 12, like Utah Tech and BYU were the top three. And I have Utah and Tech ahead of BYU, but I also still have, like, a field goal gap between BYU and Houston. Yeah, I think so. At least just clustered, like, hard. What do, and then we, there was the mention a little bit earlier Baylor at Arizona State. Sparky back on the scene again. What do we think? They're back home. Remember, because we sent them to college station and London. And now they're back in Tampa. Passports stamped and the Baylor Bears coming to town. Baylor, and Tom, are you about to comment on Baylor's performance last week? Yeah. I mean, they got that cover for Danny and his three star lock and feed lock agreement. But just this, this could very much be just recency bias. But watching Baylor in that Colorado game at home did not inspire a whole lot of and confidence in me in what that team is going to be able to do going forward. Like, there's no state. How do they recover from the trip and coming back overseas in those two tough road games? We'll see. But this to me feels like an Arizona State win. Yeah, if Arizona State gets this one, you're going to feel really good about making a bowl. Right. Like I already feel okay about them making a bowl. But like if you get this, then you start thinking, Hey, what if we get hot? You know, could we make it to the big 12 title game? Like I know our schedule is meaningfully harder than, you know, like a Texas tech or a BYU. But you get this one, you start feeling really good about yourself within the conference. Yep. You start feeling good, feeling good. Like you're wearing a home field T shirt and cover three is proudly sponsored by home field. The industry leader in top notch vintage collegiate apparel made by and for college football fans. Home field makes the most premium apparel on earth. So say goodbye to the low effort lazy designs and cheap quality because our friends at home field design and research everything from the fit and the fabrics to the vintage logos. All to make standout gear that defines your game day. 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So if you are out there in the area, checking out Arizona state, please go and see our friends at home field. Tell them you heard about it on the cover three podcast. Well, coming up on the other side, a quick look at our preseason win totals locks. What locks are looking like they might be a little shaky. What's looking iron clad all that and more. Next, the core short from Viori is one pair I keep reaching for morning run afternoon training, watching the game, it doesn't matter, soft four way stretch, built in liner, comfortable all day. Plus, they look good enough to wear well beyond the gym, ready to try a pair head to Viori.com/Pod20. [BLANK_AUDIO] at 20% off your first purchase. Exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions. - Back here on the cover three podcast. We've got four weeks of football in the books. Most teams have played four games at this point. So what a good time to be able to look at our over under win totals. So we've got them on the screen right now. Thank you very much, Taft. But I know that you mentioned bringing this up was there one certain win total that you had in mind that you wanted to call attention to or that you have been sweating? What inspired this look to get under the hood and see where we're at at this point in the year? - You know, I just thought this was one of the like the weaker weeks as far as big game breakdown. Like we're gonna watch them all obviously, you know, but this is a good way to discuss some other teams. Like, I mean, A&M unders probably done for the good. Wyoming over for me is probably cooked, right? I think two lanes not gonna get to eight wins. In IU, I don't think they're gonna win four ball games given that they're going for right now. But like, you know, Fresno's kind of interesting. Like can they still find a way to get to seven? You know, Penn State under eight and a half, probably can't drop that Wisconsin game, but like there's some other teams on that schedule that don't look all that great. You know, Cuse has not looked good at all. Like pretty, pretty important one to rebound this weekend. And, you know, Iowa State, this is kind of one of the things I was thinking about, like Iowa State is favored over West Virginia this weekend, which is kind of why. Like they have been, you know, much better I thought they'd be, I don't know, just kind of curious. Like if you guys had any really felt great about still or like, oh, I want that one back, or you know, ones that are still up in the air. - I'm with you on Iowa State. I feel like I'm gonna lose that one. I'm pretty confident I'm gonna lose that one. Honestly, like outside of Iowa State, the only one, like I felt like I said it after week one or week zero, whatever week it was in. Can I just put the win in the result column on the Rutgers under four and a half as soon as it lost to UMass? Like that one was wrapped at that point. But other than that, like Iowa State, I'm pretty wrong about, I don't feel terrible about anything else right now. The Kentucky win over A&M kind of changed. Is that calculus? But hey, it certainly helps with my A&M under. The only other one I'm kind of sketchy about, and I'm still not giving up on it. But Sam Houston has played much better than its record indicates so far. Yeah, I won't be shocked that once Sam Houston gets into conference play, if they start reeling off some wins. - I mean, is it that crazy? Like, could they win that league? - I don't know if they can win the league, but they're playing like I said a lot better than the Rutgers. - Liberty is playing good. - Liberty looks good. - Yeah, Liberty, look, D'Shawn Purdy comes with his, he comes as advertised, right? But there's enough there, and it does look like this Liberty team has been playing with a little bit of a better quality after seemingly losing the plot. I've got Liberty as the favorite comfortably in QSA. - Also, Kansas State, we picked that before that their three offensive lineman went out. Like I don't think here's any way Tom would have picked over with three starting lineman done. - Tom, what are we feeling about our Clemson over? Seven and a half? - I, I, I, I, - Not really if he's bad enough. - I still think that, I mean, like I said, they have Beaton North Carolina. They have Beaton Cal. Like when I see them against the rest of the ACC, I don't hate him. It's just in like a matchup against Miami where they'll remind you of how bad they actually are. - Mm-hmm. - The backstage under, it looks pretty good. - Sac State under is looking okay. That was a good FCS team. - That's, that's, hey. Listen, they all count. I think that the Nebraska loss did a lot to help my Michigan State under four and a half. - Because of the injuries or just because of the way it plays out. 'Cause I think Michigan State lost their top rusher and their top like. - Yeah, Cam Edwards being, yeah, yeah, yeah. Cam Edwards being done and the impotency of the passing attack so far, like yes, those things contribute. But I also kind of had that as a swing game. For like them, they, if they found a way to win that game, then which is something we entertained, right? You know, just the possibility that this could be a spot, if they were able to get over on Matt Rule there, then on the sudden, you might be looking at a five and 17 at the end of the year, a loss there, doesn't make it easy street. Cal over looks not good. That one's gonna be tough. Cal plays U-N-L-V and U-N-L-V is favored this week. - Wow. - Yeah, I know. - Samuel and OV team, they got a house by North Texas? - Yeah. - Yeah, one. One thing I missed, I've given up on the Utah Under. That's not gonna cash. - Oh, man, that was a blow. - I didn't see that when I was looking up my voice. Like, oh crap, yeah. - Yeah, I mentioned at the top of the show, Marilyn Dover at once. - You kind of need Navy to beat Air Force this weekend. - Yeah. - I know you have Air Force over, but I think Air Force has more margin to get there with a loss. Like, Navy loses, I don't think they can get a-- - Little Tom chip showdown, new in Eastern time on CBS. - We're both Air Force. - You've got Navy and Air Force. - I know, but we're both on Air Force. So I still help myself. - One way or the other. - I can't lose. - All right, what about our Auburn fight, Danny? - I would probably surrender if I could now, but I like-- - Really? Well, we could still very much help in the air, but just from what we've seen. I had them beating Florida early. That was one of the big wins. I thought they would get early, kind of catch momentum. We'll see, I don't think it's, you know. Again, if I could surrender, I probably would. - But you got Baylor, you got Baylor and Vandy in pocket. - That is true. That is true. - Yeah. - That one, I think that one's coming down to the last a couple of weeks of the season. - Let's see, where are we at? I know in terms of, let's see, I-- - How about our pen stayed over. Definitely a little bit dicier, but, you know, we thought it was a three game schedule. We didn't think those three. We didn't see Wisconsin as one of the three. Now they got a pick off, one of the three. - Never just been upset. - Which again hurts my Michigan over. I think that's one of my need. I still feel pretty good about the Michigan over, even though they lost to, 'cause I didn't see the Oklahoma necessarily, but I still feel all right about it. - All right, can we get UAB to four? Let's check the schedule. - UAB is good. That is great. - UAB is good. - All right. - That might be the first game. - I know UAB, I know UAB is a much better football team. Like that improvement is there. I just wasn't sure what the rest of the schedule is like. I mean, they might flirt with bowl game, maybe. - Yeah. - Yeah. - I was like, Illinois's defense sucks, but like I was pretty impressed by what I saw from UAB in that game, and I was impressed by UAB last weekend too. I think they're legitimately okay in that league. - They're okay, but the way that it falls, I think their tougher games are all at the back at half of the schedule. So we can't just look at the work that's done already and think it's gonna be, you know, easy street the rest of the way, but they could be over that by the end of October potentially. - Are any of these one loss away or one win away from-- - Already? - Well, I guess the Irish technically because it's 11 1/2. - Yeah, you're always walking around. I don't think so, not quite. Or getting close. Yep, Iowa State. - If the Hokies beat pit this weekend, I feel great about my Virginia Tech play. - No down. - Yeah. - Good stuff. All right, speaking of locks, we are gonna be back with you on Thursday, 11 a.m. Eastern time to give you our best bets for this week five slate. So come and hang out, youtube.com/cover3 and you can follow him on Twitter at time for no, you can follow him @danikinow, you can follow him @bloodo3, you can follow me @chip_patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much. - Thank you. - See y'all. - Out of the shadows of Paramount Mountain at Styrus and Gilius, battle against the evil giant death actor. - Better not be another miniboss. You better be the final one. - Golden Axe, new series now streaming on Paramount+.