BIG GAME BREAKDOWN: LSU-Ole Miss, Florida State-Alabama, Houston-Texas Tech, SMU-Louisville & MORE!

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That's Tom Fernelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Connell. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live at YouTube.com slash Cover 3 and everywhere you get your podcasts on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe, smash that like, and come and join us in the chat, a.k.a. the Cover 3 tailgate, where happy birthday to OVSTAR22. I'm guessing you are not 22, but you might be. Happy 22nd birthday. Thanks. Thanks for joining the tailgate and celebrating, everybody. Wish him a happy birthday, O-O-V. All right. Listen, there ain't nothing small about today. It is big game breakdown Tuesday because every single Tuesday at 11 a.m. Eastern time, we are live here on YouTube to give you inside the matchup, the X factors, the stakes, the storylines, the X's and those, and so much more for some of the biggest games of the week. And it is a massive, massive, extremely fun week three slate. We are just going to. We are going to be having an absolute blood feud in Oxford while we're also having tea and crumpets in London. And how are we accomplishing all this in one week? Only college football can. And so we're very excited. And we don't even want to get into any news. We're going to put all that to the side. No AI video talk here. Oh, golly. This is all about a big game breakdown. We'll be right back. And we begin with the game that has been just sort of sitting in the center of college football from the moment the news broke that Lane Kiffin would be leaving Ole Miss after gallivanting across the Southeast. Gallivant. Holding three fan bases in the palm of his hand and giving his rose to the governor of Louisiana, announcing his arrival to Baton Rouge. Now we get to just do the football of it all. LSU Ole Miss. Lots of different ways to cut this. My notepad is full. Danny Connell, where do you want to start here? Gosh. So many good angles for this. Let's start with what matters most. Let's start with the obvious. Let's start with the QBs. Because I think you've got one of the best who's proven over his time at Division II, Ferris State, winning a national championship, proved it over an entire season, where he won. He was really, he was looking back at his game last year against LSU. He'll face Blake Baker again. A little bit like his numbers weren't as off the charts, but he was still pretty solid. Looking at what he did against Louisville, Trinidad Chambliss has proven time and time again to be one of the best, if not the best quarterback in college football. Now he's got to go against that defense, which is uber talented, has guys all over the field who I do think will try to keep him contained in the pocket. They'll also have to stop Keewon Lacey, one of the best running backs in the country. I think there's a clear advantage with Trinidad Chambliss. What I do think is the great unknown is Sam Levitt, because we all noticed it against Clemson. Even though there was a blowout win and he was running all over him, there were just a couple off throws, like just a couple little bit off kilter plays that looked like layups. He air-melded him. I was like, all right, is he just jacked up? Is he nervous? Like, what's going on? Or is he just a little bit erratic? Then he has the three first half interceptions last week, and everyone's kind of like, uh-oh. Now he's got to do it on the road. I think LSU has to try to run the football. I think that to me is like, it always comes down to who rushes the football better, but I think it is way more important for LSU to run the football, including Sam Levitt's legs. Like, those are a part of the run game, but I do think that's what I look for, because I know that Trinidad Chambliss can win if they do take away Keewon Lacey. Like, good luck with doing that, but I don't know if LSU can win with Sam Levitt, like, not having a run game and have to win from the pocket. So, that to me is like, the most important thing in this matchup I'm looking for. Oh! Oh, no! Game break down, mute! Man, so, I think Danny's right on a lot of this. Like, Dylan has been a really good running back for LSU so far. I mean, I think, like, very productive. Dylan Jones, former Wisconsin Badger. For sure. He sort of stepped up in a way that, there were not a lot of names on that depth chart. You know, there were a lot of guys who came in with big high school recruiting profiles. He's the one who's been getting the carries. 100%. I'm going to go to the secondary here. I think LSU's is better. The question is, how much of what we saw from Ole Miss against Louisville is fixable? You know, we thought that Ole Miss, by bringing in some of those, like, veteran guys, was going to, communicate better, have fewer busts and things. And look, Braum's a good play caller. They're going to scheme some open, but they had a lot open in that game, right? And if you're Lane, you're probably looking at your chops thinking, oh my gosh, like, these guys are not fixed. Ole Miss has had about two weeks to, you know, take a look at what went wrong in the secondary against Louisville and see if they can simplify some of their coverage stuff or clean up, you know, some of their communication or what have you. And I think that's going to probably be what this comes down to. I do think LSU will be able to run the football on Ole Miss. If they're able to scheme the explosives, then I think LSU walks them, right? If they're not, if Ole Miss makes them earn it, then I think Ole Miss has a real shot to win the game. I think Trinidad is probably going to get his, you know, within reason. You know, the home, home field advantage here is pretty big, obviously. And like, you have the, the Ole Miss tackle situation, right? Which is why I muted, by the way. Oh, there, there's some, the Ole Miss tackles? Look at that. Yeah, seriously. Like, the Ole Miss tackles, they were suspect against Louisville and Trinidad worked around it. LSU has some good pass rushers, too. I don't know if they're way better than what Louisville has. I think Louisville actually has a really nice D-line as well, especially in the ACC. But, you know, are those Ole Miss tackles a weakness? Are they okay? Because I, I mean, everywhere else, I think I like Ole Miss. I like their linebackers a lot. I think their D-line is pretty, darn good. Like, can the secondary not have the bust? And can they give Trinidad enough time? To me, that's what this comes down to for me like if you look at lsu overall they've scored 96 points through two games right that's pretty damn good but i i don't know if their offense has actually been all that good like if if you look at the you know the the numbers that matter i think like they were genuinely bad last week against louisiana tech and it wasn't just the three turnovers like they hit a few explosives but they didn't finish in the red zone they had a lot of negative plays and they finished you know in the negative in both epa per drive and epa per play it was not a good performance and i think overall their rushing offense i don't believe has been that great through these first two games and danny you mentioned it like the quarterback battle i mean just off the top of your head boys let's power rank lane's last three quarterbacks jackson dart trinidad chambliss sam levitt where's sam finishing second second whoa i don't think i i'm not a big dark guy but wow i don't know maybe you should watch sunday night football i did not watch no listen um listen bud it's interesting uh there's some jackson dart family members that would love to reach out to you right that's right have been called out i was not a believer last year i am quickly getting on board though now that he's given isaiah likely and a pretty competent coaching staff getting on board with jackson dart which which family members by the way we don't need to read his dad yeah his dad came at daniel pretty cool not the first one hey anthony all right go ahead i i do wonder though like because like we know that the old miss secondary is gettable we saw louisville get the crap out of him and i also believe that part of the problem was the pass rush hasn't been very good and that's pretty easy to understand like they haven't been disruptive in their front seven the rebels i'm talking about here at these first two games which maybe it's because the nation's current leading sack you know prince will man meeland with five now plays for lsu so like we have seen a drop off on that side of the ball for them in that area so maybe sam levitt and this lsu offense will take care of it but i do think what you guys have said they do need to run the ball well i believe in this matchup especially since they're on the road because we know sam levitt is capable of making some mistakes now on the other side of the ball the lsu defense has been incredible through its first two games if you look statistically like and it was a good defense last year so it's not unrealistic to think that the defense might be what leads this team as the season goes along but the what you have to figure out is like they haven't played a quarterback that's even playing the same sport as trinidad chambliss to this point let alone playing to the same level as trinidad chambliss like clemson's quarterback situation is a total mess tate reynolds will be the starter this week and dabo said it's not just because of his zine has been hurt and they've played louisiana tech so we're gonna find out how good this defense genuinely is on saturday in this game so i i think there are a lot of unanswered questions about both of these teams but i also think another huge factor that we have to consider here is you know lane's talking about how he needs the national guard for his safety in oxford this week he's very worried about his personal safety but we know the environment's going to be incredible like this crowd's going to be bloodthirsty they are out they want their revenge they are very mad at lane kiffin and old miss has not been shy about stoking that anger leading up to this game amongst its fan base so it is very important for old miss to get off to a good start here because you have to keep that crowd in the game if lsu comes out and they play well early and they quiet that crowd and they take that electricity out of the air like it could be a long night for old miss so i i believe it's imperative no matter what the end game looks like here for old miss to get off to a good start in this game to make sure they keep that environment and make it raucous because again sam levitt in a tough situation with a loud crowd cheering for him he gets confused he panics he makes mistakes they need to help force them building off of that oh in the open like if you're ls yeah lsu if you're old miss yeah i i think i have a lot more trust in my offense than my defense right now and if i want to get off to a good start i would love to march down the field and put a touchdown on the board um the thing that stands what it looks like right if it's just what it looks like blake baker has bloodthirsty tigers playing with their hair on fire on that defense you know just again if it's just what it looks like tj dottery wit weeks principal uman miel and ty benefield like nfl players who look like they are playing for their nfl draft stock every single saturday it's just what it looks like because there's the context of the opponent so what we find out on saturday going up against trinidad chambliss on the road in that stadium is whether this lsu defense are some sunny day sailors front runners or whether they are some bloodthirsty tigers because they are going to have a tougher challenge they're going to face some adversity they're going to get burned there's going to be some explosive plays and if they continue to play with that kind of hair on fire downhill confidence then it i'm with you tom that could be the underlying sort of sneaky storyline here and they might give up points just because the number of possessions that are going to be in some of these lsu games with the way they play offense but if you want to talk about lsu and in terms of the long-term big picture stuff the thing that i am fascinated about getting out of this game is holding that defense to the fire against a quality quarterback because the talent is clearly loaded up with pros and the way that it has looked is like those great defenses where it's just unique motivation competition it's just you are bringing absolute nothing but 100 because those are those are the best defenses those are defenses that lead your team to championships is when you've got that kind of defense and you've got the best defense and you've got the best defense and you've got that kind of internal motivation if they crumble when they face adversity and if they can't bring that same kind of hair on fire energy against a quality quarterback and a quality offense you know deuce alexander got to keep your eye on him i don't care how hyped up you are like if he's going to beat you for a big play that's that's like the great revelation you know like hold it to the fire if lsu's defense is for real we talk about lsu like a legitimate national title contender in year one under lane kiffin if not if they get burned and this is like 45 42 41 38 and they're on their heels for most of the night then i think it's a little bit of a different conversation so that's i think lsu's defense is probably my biggest x factor in this one i don't trust old miss's defense lsu's defense could be awesome or it could just be they've played a different level of competition so the other thing that makes this really hard is like just how bad that clemson game plan was right like i mean they just like it just didn't make any sense man like like i was 10 years old and i was like i'm not gonna play this game i'm not gonna play this like lsu was physically better but clemson also just had so many just missed assignments in that game it was like just they were just not cohesive at all like like i mean yeah their offensive line gave up some pressures just on getting beat but they also just gave up a lot of like free runners at the quarterback and and just it was like defensively just coverage bust it was it was really concerning and and it just it makes it a little bit difficult how like to truly evaluate what lsu is i mean we can know kind of what lsu's players are i think because we have a good amount of data on them from previous stops and like they're pretty proven it's not like they spent 50 million on a bunch of wild cards right but it we only have two two games one's a game it doesn't look like lsu took seriously at all last weekend and then the opener where clemson's game plan was just so bad it it creates a lot of mystery in this for me a couple matchups i'm looking at uh you mentioned deuce alexander he'll want to see number four five for lsu legendary number five dj pickett you know the matchups they have together that should be a fun one to watch and then trade as green is a mismatched nightmare like how does old miss defend the big tight end who they flex out they help define coverage for a quarterback you know what do they do do they adjust is it man is it zone it can really be a definer for a quarterback which makes your progressions that much easier really curious to see how you know those matchups unfold throughout the game do you guys think it's higher scoring or lower scoring i think there's too much firepower i think i think there's some good offense and i i the problem is like if i think old miss is going to be competitive which i do i think they're going to have to score against lsu lsu's defense because i think lsu is going to score out against old miss's defense i mean i think it's more of a higher scoring game i it's certainly price is pretty high scoring yeah right um but like what's the value of pete golding having having seen this offense every you know every day in practice for a couple years what's the value of all the experience on the other side i want to know who won those battles too you know yeah right exactly you know i i mean we we had under in in uh in old miss louisville right and it looked great until it didn't like it it's kind of hard to bet an under on a chambliss game you know mobile quarterbacks they can make some plays out of the pocket oh watch that'll be 10-3 well no we used to high score are you saying like a game upper 50s mid 60s or are you like like because that's kind of that's i think it's price right i think like 31 28 something in there you know something close but like high you know right around there high 50s i mean just you said there it is funny how we've uh dramatic dramatically changed our expectations for what a high scoring game is then like you're saying like 60 points it's like it wasn't that long ago where we were 55 to 49 games. - Yeah. We've seen it. Possessions coming just two weeks into the season. Possession count continues to be on a decline across all of the FBS on FBS games. So the definition of a high scoring game certainly has changed. How about this? If you'd give me an over under on yards, I would take the over. If you give me an over under on points, I would entertain the under more. I could see them scooting the ball a lot. And then both these defenses finding ways to make stops or the offenses, like we saw from LSU last week, maybe not always being able to capitalize in the red zone. So those three years ago, it was 55, 49. Yeah. See, I mean, this is, this isn't incredible analysis, but I do think this game will come down to explosive plays. Like whichever team is able to make more of them. Cause I don't think it's going to be pretty. Like, I don't think you're going to see a lot of efficient, powerful drives in this game. I think you're going to see some three outs and you're going to see some 70 yard touchdowns. Did you see, uh, did you see Brian Formos, um, note on possessions per game continue to trend down? I, I just said that, but, um, what, what, do you have the numbers? Yeah. Yeah. So, uh, through two weeks, uh, we're, we're down again. Yes. I was looking for the tweet. I'm sorry. Um, yeah, we're, we're down to like under 24 per game now through the first two weeks in 20 and 2007, we were at 27 and a half average possessions per game. Yeah. That's, that's a huge drop. Yep. A hundred percent coming up on the other side, Friday night lights gives us one of the biggest games of the season in the big 12 plus ACC title race already has maybe an elimination game and more next. Hey, before we jump back into the show, let's take a quick break, but not just any break. This is a refreshing break. With Snapple. We all know about Snapple's iconic real facts. 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Back here on the cover three podcast, Friday night, Lubbock, Texas, the Houston Cougs come to town to face a red Raiders team that are the reigning big 12 champs. And really, as of even maybe a month ago, it seemed like an overwhelming favorite to be able to win this league. Now, Texas techs performances over the first couple of weeks of the season, their own situation, which included picking up Tommy Castellanos, maybe it's changed that outlook a little bit, but my, they could reverse course quickly. If they're able to show the same kind of dominance they had last season against a Houston team that looks a little feisty. We got a common opponent, which doesn't always happen with the week three matchup, Houston beat Oregon state by 13 and Texas tech beat them by 11. So I guess it's Houston by two Tom easy, big game breakdown over. What are you looking for in this matchup? I got a lot of places that I would like to go, but you lead the way. Well, you mentioned it. Like if we look at these two teams, they have a common opponent and they have an overall equal strength of schedule yet, which team has performed much better so far this year, as you can see the graphic, thank you for putting that up striker, same schedules, much different results on offense. Houston's offense ranks second in the nation right now in points per drive at 4.78 and in success rate at 59.7%. And then techs offense 64th and points per drive at 2.72. 78th and success rate at 44.8%. Houston has been playing much better, much more efficiently on offense. And you look at tech, like they're rushing attack in particular has been pretty ineffective. And when you think of what this team is designed to be offensively with will Hammond at quarterback and then bringing in Thomas Castellanos is the backup. They're not there to chuck the ball all over the field. They're a team that feels like they should have the offensive line and the players ready to run the ball against their opponents. And they simply haven't done so. They haven't exactly been playing incredible competition. They're averaging only 3.8 yards per carry and they're 87th in the nation in rushing success rate at 40.2%. So that to me is a pretty kind of concerning thing going into this game against a Houston team that is playing very well is the best team you've seen so far this year and also having to do so on a short week. Now defensively, I have mentioned some of the concerns I've seen with Texas Tech Red Raiders so far as not being outstanding at generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. And what was this defense phenomenal at last year? Getting after that passer. Exactly. They had great pass rushers. They had a great defensive line and they made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. So far this year though, just hasn't been there. But the one thing that I believe will change in this game compared to what we have seen from Texas Tech so far this year. Last season, Texas Tech blitzed 29% of the time. They weren't over the top. They were over the top. They were overly reliant on it because again, they had a very good defensive line. They had David Bailey. They didn't really have to blitz to get after the other quarterback. So far this year, they've blitzed on 9% of dropbacks. They, in these two games against Oregon State and Abilene Christian, have been content just rushing three, rushing four, dropping everybody back in coverage and seeing if they can get home. They have not, which again speaks to the drop-off in talent that they have on the defensive line compared to last year. And it also speaks to maybe, you know, considering Oregon State was tearing them apart last week. In the passing game, maybe they should have changed up their philosophy, but clearly they didn't want to put it on tape. They're trying to save all this stuff for these games that matter to them more in conference play. So I am predicting that on Friday night, we will see a far more blitz-happy Texas Tech defense compared to what we have seen to try to get to Connor Wegman, to try to get that offense off of their flow and off of their rhythm. And we'll see how effective it is. And if it's not effective, we might have an upset on our hands on Friday night. I don't want to tip my hand anything for later this week, but I believe this is going to be a much closer game than maybe I thought it was going to be two weeks ago. Like two weeks ago, I thought Texas Tech was the class of the Big 12, as we discussed on the reaction show, as we discussed Monday. My estimation of what this Red Raiders team is, at least as far as their ceiling and their floor, is not as high as it was coming into the season. From what I've seen from two weeks, I've got some skepticism. I've got some questions. And I think we're going to find out a lot more. Now, it's possible they come out Friday night and absolutely blow the door off the Cougs. And it's like, oh, okay, they're who I thought they were. But I'm not as confident that that's going to be the case. was not too long ago. Yeah, I completely agree. I mean, look, if you look at what we thought we had in Texas Tech and what we were trying to find out about Texas Tech, like we thought they would have an improved run game, right? Like they felt very good about the offensive line. Now we had some concerns about this because we know that Sorsby is a really good runner and adding like the actual, you know, dual threat capability of Sorsby was probably going to make this a really effective run game. Hammond doesn't quite have that. I mean, he's not a total statue, but he's not scary as a runner. Like the run game has not been great. Their explosive plays, they're 111th in the country in plays of more than 20 yards. So they're kind of getting boxed and they're unable to get out of that box. You know, defensively, like I do have to give some credit to Oregon State here because like when I watched Oregon State Houston, I was like, oh man, this Houston defense is a little bit sketchy. Like this kid's making throws and they kind of like had to do something about it. I mean, I think it's a little bit sketchy. I mean, I think it's success too against Texas Tech. And I think I'm willing to excuse. So we might just have to give some credit to Oregon State's offense and acknowledge that Oregon State might be a little more of a player in the Pac-12 than we anticipated preseason. Like they look pretty well coached. The quarterback's good. Like some of the receivers, especially the young guys are pretty nice there. So I'm kind of, I went from thinking, oh man, like Houston's defense is an issue and maybe it still is, but also they moved the ball on a Texas Tech defense that I'd be shocked if they suck, right? Like, I don't know. They're probably not what they were last year, but I still think that's a very good defense and Oregon State moved the ball in both Houston and on Tech. So, but if Oregon State did it, Houston could probably move the ball on them some as well. And like, you kind of have to have confidence in a Willie Fritz team. They're going to find a way, you know, to scheme their way to a certain number of points. Is Texas Tech good enough to grind this out if there's still this like consistent, but not explosive offense? I don't know. It's also, it's been two games and one of them was, it was, you know, at Oregon State in the rain. Which is a little bit hard to operate in. But I, man, if they don't, I don't love like receiver by committee, unless you have like a really NFL type quarterback in college and they don't really seem to have a go-to guy this year who just, you can just spam. DK? Houston might though. And Amari Thomas. Yeah. Last year he was really good. Bud kind of stole my thunder somewhat because. Way to go, Bud. Sorry. But I agree with him. Like, I, and this goes back to why I think there's a brewing quarterback controversy because some people pointed out it hasn't been all Will Hammond's fault and they're right. I, I thought cause Baron Morton was really good. It wasn't all his fault until it wasn't against Oregon. He got exposed, but you know what Baron Morton didn't do? He didn't run the football. And I think, I think Will Hammond is more mobile than Baron Morton, but he's not that much more mobile. And I think that is, if I was, if I, it's the evolution of the position, like, and especially in college, if you have a quarterback who can run extend plays and as a run threat, it just opens up everything. And I think both through the air and on the ground, I trust Connor Wegman more than I trust Will Hammond or whether it's Thomas Castellanos and guess who's back in college football, Makai Hughes, who was at Oregon and then kind of disappeared. He's been running the ball pretty better, pretty much effectively. So both defenses have shown susceptible to getting beat in the past. Now, Oregon State's past happy offense is completely different than what you're going to face now. But I look at, I think this game is ripe for an upset. Now I did circle this one. I liked Houston coming into the season. I thought this was going to be a test for Texas tech, but I'm like you guys, I think it's way more competitive than we thought it was going to be coming into the season. Yeah. Houston skill players know who they are. The running back is a little bit by committee. Makai Hughes doesn't have to handle it all. They've got a couple of players cycling in there. You mentioned Amari Thomas, Kobe Young, Patrick Overmeyer, the UTSA transfer at tight end. Like Houston feels like a fully formed offense. You know, they, they know exactly what they need to do and what they need to go out to take care of it. It is funny that you both mentioned the defensive side of this because, you know, uh, points per play points per drive, they both kind of check out for both these teams as a fine, but then yards per play and yards per drive look way worse because Brayd Atkinson just sat back there and got about 30 yards every single drive. Like give him the ball. He's going to find Legree cutting across the field, a little yak after that. This Oregon State team, as you mentioned, bud, we'll, we'll take those notes moving forward. I'm just so disoriented by Texas tech. You know, I just, I I'm wary of them just being able to flip this at home with the tortillas on a Friday night. Like that all of a sudden we would just say, Oh, okay, there it is. But also they might, this just might be who they are. They might be a big 12 title contender, just not the big 12 title favorite. And I think that's the fun thing that can get exposed here. I think they're still the favorite until they're, until they're like proven that somebody can actually score a lot on this defense, but maybe that's Houston, right? You know, like, like it, there's some teams in the big 12. I think that probably look a little bit better than they did in the preseason. But also like, you know, BYU's passing was still pretty much all off play action and that's really effective for them. But I think if you were going to elevate BYU to the favorite, you'd probably want to see a little more from the drop back game, a little more progression from the passing offense when they are in those negative leverage situations. On Houston though, man, how do you, how involved do you get? You get Keyshawn Henderson here, right? Cause he was what? Six of seven against Southern looked comfortable and then exploded for a 54 yard touchdown. I, he looked like one of the most explosive players on that team. I'd be shocked if they don't try to get him in the game plan a little bit more. Four quarterbacks in this game. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Probably we're going to get four quarterbacks in this game. Yes. Tom. Uh, I, another thing to consider here spread for this game is seven and a half points. Do you know how many times Texas tech was in a one score game in the big 12 last year? Not many. Once it was the only time they lost Arizona state. Yeah. So if this game is close in the fourth quarter, you've got a team that's not really used to being in this instances where meanwhile, Houston was incredible in one score games last year. So if it comes down late in the fourth quarter, I'm just no offense. I've got one team with a coaching advantage here and one team with an experience and advantage. And these kinds of games where, where one score game regression becomes one score game strength. Let's go have full heft empty. I like it. No, you know, I I'm team. It can be a coaching thing. And when it's someone like Willie Fritz, I think that that's a, that could be an edge that I will not argue against. Totally. Then on Saturday, I mentioned another big time conference title race implication game in mid September, but it's true because there are just not that many games between conference contenders when you've got these bloated conferences and we've got it with SMU travel, travel into Cardinal stadium to take on Louisville in the afternoon. Really, really fun quarterback battle between Lincoln Keenholz and Kevin Jennings. Uh, if you like the, your classic yards per attempt, we're talking Kevin Jennings, number one in the country at 14.8 Lincoln Keenholz, number four in the country at 12.8. If you like your extra advanced stats, how about Kevin Jennings? Third nationally in EPA per drop. Back Lincoln Keenholz 10th nationally in EPA per drop back a lot more to get to beyond these quarterbacks, different skill sets and different ways that they're attacking it along the way. But as you're, uh, as you're looking at this battle, where, where does your head, uh, start to wander and drift to try to see where this one's going to be decided? Well, I can, can SMU hold on to the football, you know, like some of that was S it was FSU's defense playing poorly. Uh, but also SMU put up damn near 600 yards and look to be a really well-oiled machine. Although maybe like too much oil, a little oil on the ball at times, not, not, not the best there. Um, but I, I do think like Jennings, the ability to play in space and, and exploit things for sure. Um, you know, how much does, does Louisville blitz him? Uh, cause he, he has not been a real effective passer, uh, under pressure. Does Louisville have to blitz him, right? Like if I'm Louisville, I'm probably saying, Hey, we're, we're going to give our secondary a little extra help after what happened against Ole Miss. We're going to see if that front, you know, can get home. And, uh, and see if SMU can consistently drive the ball and, and certainly like deny their explosives. I think at all costs, like that, that's really what I'm looking for. Like this matchup of that Louisville defensive line against an SMU offensive line, which I think is pretty good, but a little bit better on the left side than they are on the right side. And we'll have to see how Cleve Lubin does, you know, for, for, uh, for the cards there. Um, that, that is to, to me, that's probably what this comes down to. I I'm pretty encouraged by what I've seen from the Louisville offense and their, their progression. You're like, they, I know Villanova is like not a great team, but they, they continue to put it on them on, was it Friday night or Thursday night? Um, you know, like that, they look pretty good. They're like final couple of quarters against Ole Miss. They continue to look pretty good. Some of that again was, was Ole Miss busting, but I kind of expect Brom to create some bust as a really nice offensive coach as well. I know which D line gets home probably decides this. I think it's going to be a tackle. This is going to be huge because if you look at what these two offenses have done, the ability for defensive backs to be able to get receivers to the ground will be paramount. As you can see on the graph that strikers put up there, Louisville's offense ranks sixth nationally in yak rate. SMU is 18th for both of these teams, over 60% of their yards in the passing game have come after the catch. They are throwing a lot of short passes and having the receivers, you know, break big gains, break explosives, break tackles. They're going to be able to take a lot of long tackles and get going. So they're not asking, either team's asking their a philosophy when they do it's usually a broken coverage or it's like the play has gone off script and keenholts or jennings are kind of scrambling and somebody's getting free and you know in the fire drill and they're hitting big plays downfield so far when you look at the defenses neither of them have been elite in the category but they've done a decent job of tackling and limiting explosives but what we saw like if you go back to louisville's game against old miss clearly you know blaze and trinidad had some big plays against this defense but the difference was trinidad was able to throw the ball over him because he's just that guy like i don't think either keenholts or jennings can do that philosophy philosophically or what they're trying to do so it will be interesting to see if smu is able to exploit louisville secondary the same way old miss did i am not optimistic that kevin jennings can do so at least not efficiently and and you know consistently so to me that's going to be huge tackling tackling tackling the team that misses the fewest tackles probably wins this game if you force this other team to march down the field now on the other side of the ball louisville's been much better running it than smu has to this point if you look right now smu ranks 129th nationally in epa per rush that's a problem like this is a team that i think is too good and too talented at that position to be that ineffective rushing the ball so far to this point so are we going to see somewhat more of an impact on the team or are we going to see more of an impact on the team or are we going to see more of an impact on the team or are we going to see more of an impact on the team or are we going to emphasis and trying to get that done against louisville here i i don't know if they want to lean on it but i think it needs to be a reliable threat something louisville has to contend with because on the other side if if keen holes is struggling we know louisville can run the ball to help take some of that pressure off of him if jennings is struggling and smu is not able to run the ball it could snowball pretty quick because as bud mentioned like go to the florida state game they were incredible when they were holding on to the football but they also have a tendency to not hold on to the football you 55 pass right right now for smu slightly and i mean slightly above their season averages last year when they were 53 pass rate team um i don't love i don't love the uh i don't love the kendrick rafael drameco green um performance so far rafael obviously coming over from cal green somebody who they had in house it's just i don't know man they've they're having to do a lot of the passes as an extension of the run game running the ball traditionally is not generating a lot of explosiveness uh tom something or nothing that keen holds leads the team in rushing it's something isaac brown is not the isaac brown that was imagined foretold prophesied you know it's just well brown was banged up pretty hard against all miss he was and he was banged up against all miss and then last week against villanova there's really no need to hand the ball to him a bunch of times so i mean it's it's something it's something that's going to happen and i think it's going to it's not nothing i don't know if it's a huge something well it could be a something for uh keen holds i mean have you seen the photoshopped keen holds his face on lamar jackson's body no you know like what was that what was the problematic sports illustrated cover what if mike vick was white like it's very much in that line of like they've taken a famous lamar jackson louisville picture and they put keen holds face on it um you know this a guy i there is like he could just be like having a season and you mentioned the yaks stuff i think that is the makeup of this wide receiver room and let's throw in jaleel skinner to the mix as well richardson mccoy skinner these are just dudes that if you can deliver it on time you don't need to throw it 15 yards down the field to create an explosive pass because of just the skill set and the way that it's able to be schemed up thanks and yeah i do think we get big game brom tailgate's been on this one like buddy if if we're gonna call you big game brom this is it you're playing at home in a huge game in terms of the acc title outlook this has got to be one where he lives up to that reputation to be able to scheme up some of those big time plays um also kevin jennings you know he had his fingy hurt in the beginning last year banged up with the lower body a lot he's already been banged up a lot this season 94th in nationally in quarterback contacts as number of times that you're sacked hurried knocked down um a little bit a little bit like this louisville defense could say hey we're gonna we don't think they can run the ball we think that we can go and heat him up because we don't think he's moving away from contact a lot let's just let's go all gas no brakes now will mark ivy still in his third game as a defensive play caller have that kind of presence we'll see something to uh to keep an eye on anything else yeah just something interesting if you look at the at the future stuff on draft kings they have team to reach the acc championship game right so we kind of this is not an elimination game but like certainly a game with some really high stakes to get there smu's plus 100 and louisville's plus 190 which is really interesting because this game is like we know where this game is being played and then also you know smu that they don't play virginia or sorry smu plays virginia louisville does not like so it surprised you guys like the split is that big to race the championship game when it seems like a lot of this you know comes down to that and you know like the one team that has the better odds still has to play a pretty damn good virginia team that is interesting i can't do that math right now i can't really do it in my hand but like so we know none of them play miami right right i do remember previewing smu schedule and saying if they started three and oh it was going to be a cakewalk from there virginia's at home you know maybe that's the difference oh uh penalties both these teams are dumb sometimes let's uh no not sometimes they're often dumb okay all right i didn't want to i didn't want to be mean i just admitted i'm a dummy as i just admitted can't do math in my head but look out for i mean shoot there was a play against villanova god this is what i i had so much fun prepping for this show i'm so glad we're back in it like it would be so easy to look at that game against villanova i'm like 59 13 like look louisville they just checked a bunch of boxes you start digging deep into this little fans are furious about roughing the passer penalties they are furious that villanova was able to hold on to the ball for and just eat up so much clock during some of the stages of this game i mean it's just it it's really really fun to be able to get into this and and break it all down with you guys here last one i'll give because you gave the advanced analytics stats i love them i'm more of a basic bitch stats guy yeah so we've got number one kevin jennings number one in total offense versus number two lincoln keenholz uh in total offense i love the matchup i think this is because i have a tremendous amount of respect for kevin jennings i know rhett lashley loves his quarterback and anytime i like i've had top 10 quarterback lists i've had him like right on the outside like is he top 10 in the country even smu fans have pointed out last year he did have 13 interceptions i saw him at florida state couple like what is he doing type of throws but yet when the game's on the line like do you trust him because he makes plays he's tough as nails i kind of i trust keenholz more though even though it's only been two games i just trust him overall the course of a game and i trust his legs a little bit more too the ability it's a weapon jennings is mobile but i don't think he terrifies you as far as like what he's going to do with his legs i think keenholz like he knows kind of reminds me of levitt like i don't think if he's that electric but he's pretty dynamic as a runner yeah i i think i like far prefer keenholz as a designed rusher yeah jennings is a scrambler is pretty scary i think if you're a defense because he can scoot right did danny just invent a new segment for us we've got big game breakdowns and then we've got basic bitch breakdowns after no because the idea about basic bitch breakdowns would take would technically be take a top 10 match up and just read off all the total offense total defense that's yeah coming up on the other side revenge opportunity for kaylin deborah and a couple of sec first year coaches clash on the planes all that and more next the wait is over football is here and so is draft kings draft kings is now live in all 50 states one app every sport nationwide and new draft kings customers sign up with the code cover three then spend five bucks and you get two hundred dollars in free rewards within 21 days and that includes all markets that's code cover three spell it out t-h-r-e-e in partnership with draft kings the crown is yours gambling problem call 1-800 gambler 1-800 my reset connecticut call 888-789-7777 visit ccpg.org on behalf of boot hill casino in kansas bet techs pass through may apply in illinois 21 plus void in canada bet with draft kings sportsbook to get bonus bets that expire in seven days or trade with draft kings predictions to get prediction dollars that expire in one year event contract trading involves risk of loss predictions offer void in new york non-withdrawable rewards issued as 50 click to claims every seven days for 21 days terms at dkng.co offer limited time offer nationwide based on sportsbook predictions and free to play sports contest 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Well, do you trust the quarterback to throw the football at all? I think it was pretty clear they didn't trust the QB to throw at all in Tallahassee on Monday night against SMU. You still have a very dynamic receiver in Deuce Robinson. You still have an explosive play threat in Micah. And the backs are quite good. The defensive line is not anything really special. And so I think Keylon, he should probably operate for a lot of the day without being really pestered, I guess. FSU is clearly going to emphasize and practice some of the coverage busts that they've had for two weeks, but they also had all offseason to emphasize that. And we talked about this when they had those busts against New Mexico State. I didn't think that was going to get fixed in a week when you had that all camp. Now, I think there's a pretty good chance that didn't get exposed in camp as much because Daniels is pretty bad and was bad in camp. Which we said all preseason. So, you know, I mean, can this 3-3-5 defense confuse a young QB? Does Bama take this game serious? Like, the spread's 21. I thought it was down to 19 somewhere. Sorry, sorry. 19, right. Oh, it should be at 21. No, no, no. Danny's moving it, actually. Tailgate's already knowing that Danny's got a little Knowles plus 19 and a half. But, yeah, this thing's been ticking down. It says line too big. You know, there's two weeks of film now on Russell. So maybe if you're an opposing coordinator watching him, you're seeing some tendencies or things that you think that you can exploit. But, you know, Bama's defense barely allowed 200 yards on the road to Kentucky. And Kentucky has a better offensive line than FSU does, I think meaningfully so. And a better quarterback. And, you know, not as good skill position players. But, I mean, Kentucky's offense really couldn't do anything. Against these guys. So I don't really anticipate if Alabama takes the game seriously that FSU has much of a shot. But, again, they have to take the game seriously. And, you know, DeBoer's teams have been really good. But they also have not always taken every game seriously. So I think, as crazy as it is, like the fact this is on big game breakdown, a lot of this comes down to how much does Bama care about this. But I think they're going to have a little motivation because they lost in Tallahassee last year. Hmm. Danny? I don't know. I've watched a couple games. I was actually, before we started, I can't see it. I was watching a little game tape of Florida State, one of their offense, trying to operate against SMU. You're trying to look for some redeeming qualities, like finding out clearly the running backs have been the thing that's jumped out to you. I'm trying to figure out how Florida State can make this competitive. Right? And, like, the defense hasn't really give you any hope that they can keep it competitive. The offense, the offensive line is a big issue. I'm like, man, if they can't protect at home against SMU and get any sort of meaningful ground game going, how are they going to do that? I mean, I guess Deuce Robinson makes a couple big plays. He's been non-existent so far. You know, he's a mismatched nightmare, but really haven't been able to use that. I just don't see any matchups. Where you look like, yeah, that's a win for Florida State. I don't know if there's one. And I actually feel better. Look, Keelan Russell, it's a rough start. Two picks in the first half. Like, and I almost wish it was perfect for Keelan Russell at Kentucky. So then maybe he gets his test and he gets a little bit rattled at home. But he responded to the test, kind of settled into the game. I think the story of Alabama so far, and I know Keelan Russell's been great, but their defense looks really good. I don't see any scenario where. They overlook Florida State because they're not very good and because of what happened last year, I think it's all the motivation they need. Biggest question for me in this game, because I don't expect it'll be close, is are either of your feelings hurt that after the tailgate and Chip and I have been like pumping both of you as the new AD at Florida State that that BMAC came out with support of Derrick Brooks instead of either of you? Derrick Brooks would have my backing too. Yeah. Derrick Brooks. Yeah. Does. Do you guys see any, any, any, like, what's the, because Oklahoma, Michigan, it seems so, you know, it was easy. But then if you dove into like, well, what if Michigan plays great defense? And what if material struggles throwing the football? Like you can, you could talk yourself into it. And the point spread said, oh, maybe there's something we don't know. And I know it's come down to 19 and a half, but where is the recipe for a Florida State close game or upset? I have a hard time finding. I think the recipe is in, in it being close for a half. I think the depth is just so much better for Alabama that it, the Florida State would just break at some point, you know, that it was just Alabama can play with its food. You know, you, depending on the opponent, it might be for two drives, you know, it might be for a quarter, might be for a little. I just think the four quarter proposition is really tough to answer your question right there. But here it's Ryan Coleman's Williams dropped some balls, Keelan Russell. Has a bad pass or a turnover. Then Florida State uses the run game to be able to at least convert some third and fourth down, set themselves up, gain some confidence. Like there's ways that I can spin Florida State, not getting embarrassed for stretches of the game. But I just don't know from a roster standpoint, if the depth is there for Florida State to be able to hang for 60 minutes with Alabama. I would agree. I mean, yeah, like you have really good backs. You do have some really nice receivers. Daniels plays some kind of amazing game somehow by his standards. Like you get the ball out quick. Some of the screen game stuff works. Keelan is confused by the defense. Maybe throws you a defensive score. Maybe Bama drops a punt. Like how did SMU keep Florida State in the game? Right. Stupid plays. Like your component box score, which is a pretty good predictor of like based on how the game was played on a down to down basis. If it was played again. What would the score be? Like it was SMU by like 20 and a half. Right. So it's. they're like what a 10 to 1 dog they're not a hundred to one but also i don't know if it's super comparable to to michigan oklahoma like that spread was was five right but in terms of the conversation like have you you just lean in one way or the other how does this happen and i think i think that danny i think that there enough could happen that the nation grabs its remote and changes the channel right you know or at least flips it on or puts it on a side screen when they obviously have america's most watched network the network of stars usc at rutgers on their main screen they flip their tablet over from what they were watching on their secondary screen to be making sure that they see is alabama gonna lose and then alabama eventually would say no and be able to shut the door but um certainly something to look at in the ever uh ever evolving world of mike norvell is it concerning for the time slot champs that smu louisville is the more attractive game in this window than alabama florida state i've whoa whoa whoa what do you what do you think about our network oh no i think i i think alabama florida state will rate better but i'm just saying is it concerning to rate better yeah you're asking no no and also it's like we just accidentally did about 18 minutes on smu louisville talking about how excited we were with that game we just did one round to pass the stick and everyone's like uh move on please yeah it's like the chat's like how in the world is on big game breakdown well because the time slot champs all right and now it's time for upset alert brought to you by draft kings the draft king sports app is now live in all 50 states and this september draft kings is giving customers the opportunity to get boosted every football game day new draft kings customers can sign up with the code cover three that is cover three but spell out the three c-o-v-e-r-t-h-r-e-e spend five bucks and get 200 in total rewards within 21 days including all markets that's code cover three c-o-v-e-r-t-h-r-e-e in partnership with draft kings the crown is yours and i want you to get that mayo out oh baby it's got that zang it's got that spice we're going to the duke's mayo kickoff classic here in week three now we've got a fun game non-conference but regional rivalry virginia against west virginia i'll call it the battle of country roads one of these schools plays it all the time the other school apparently it might have actually been written about the western part of virginia as much as west virginia yeah we'll take that for another podcast what i want to know is whether anybody else smells the potential of rich rodriguez and this new offense going in to the bank and pulling off an upset they find themselves currently as a double digit dog it would be a big upset for sure but elliot do you see the path for the mountaineers to be able to take down this wahoo's squad i i do i'm not sure that it's going to happen but like i think it's an easier path to paint than fsu going in and beating out a lot of people and the path is this uh i think west virginia guys they might be on to the idea that virginia is going to run bow oh unlike their season opening opponent which was totally blown away yeah at the legs of bow for beulah yes who could have seen this coming yeah right um so obviously west virginia like faces a mobile quarterback in practice all the time a run first quarterback in hawkins uh if you will i you know bow operated that offense extremely well and i think that's extremely well that a lot of the design runs offensive line as veteran and did a great job it's a different scheme that the mountaineers are going to bring in defensively like so we'll have to see if they can create some penetration and some confusion you know with that i think a lot more aggressive scheme which can be good and bad uh compared to what nc state wants to run my thought here is that i think west virginia is going to sell out to try to get virginia in negative leverage situations and we don't know how good or bad virginia will be in those situations because we've not seen them in those situations this year like they have not been like right like they just have not had to face third and seven or third and eight or or second and ten uh really much at all uh so i think that's going to be that's going to be kind of fascinating uh to see like just how much do the mountaineers sell out uh to make that happen but also if you're virginia how many points do you really need to win this game right like i i would think i i don't think virginia's defense is going to give up 30 uh to a mountaineer's offense which looks improved but maybe not amazing yet you know so do you really think hawkins can is hawkins going to score more than 24 on you is it possible that this is it possible that the clock just doesn't stop in this game with all the reliance on the ground game yeah i i mean now mountaineers are going to go at tempo but yes like you know it's it's probably a lot of running um i mean if virginia's office or his defense that damn good i think they're like really good at not allowing explosives and and you know playing good like fundamental assignment defense because they're all old as hell and veteran guys and they play that scheme extremely well but maybe rich rod has something for him you know i a lot of this to me just comes down to can this mountaineer's defense get virginia off schedule and make them operate from behind the sticks if they can't virginia cruises danny tom what stands out here i mean i think virginia's offensive line was well documented in that nc state game with all the town all the experience that is there i mean i and i would if i was west virginia you're gonna have to sell out now bro perbula he did a pretty good job hitting a couple big plays like they're gonna scheme up there's gonna be some open ones if he hits them they'll take advantage of it they'll be able to force them out of it you know but i think that's the matchup i'm watching is virginia's offensive line versus west virginia's front seven yep i mean i don't can you can you stay in your gap can you get your fits can you maintain you know just your integrity in those areas because virginia is going to try to get you out of them and if they don't fool you they can just push you out of them so you have to figure out a way to stay in there to limit their rushing attack because i mean if you do take away virginia's run game and you force both perbula to be a drop back passer that's not where virginia wants to be that's what you have to do okay that is i'm gonna close out our our friends at draft kings you know they always liked for us to be able to spotlight an upset alert but the tailgate brought something up so before we close this out i just want to at least get a quick little straw poll it did is any part of you entertaining new mexico over oklahoma no okay no i i fully think that that oklahoma can overwhelm them um the only way that this is close is if ou doesn't take it seriously because that is a unique scheme to prep for right um but so was utep i i just there's a human element of this you know that just the way that it went up in ann arbor and now you're home and you should be able to roll these guys y'all see jason talk about the steakhouse yeah yeah no he's he's like yeah we've been uh it's kind of like we've been eating fast food right and uh now we just got invited to the nicest steakhouse in town and we got to check our wallet make sure we got enough money because if we don't have enough money we're not prepared no things we get embarrassed pretty fast and he's talking about like we gotta make sure we have our focus make sure we're on it because they don't want to get embarrassed um yeah i could see an interesting half i just feel like i think it's one of those because i think oklahoma could be that hungover you know feeling sorry for themselves a little bit human nature you know they got their sec schedule coming up it's that sandwich game but i think they'll have too much to just kind of push them around the second half yeah i'm all for taking the lobos to cover right right right right right but not not as like a true new mexico goes in and ruins brent venables fall 26 it it is new mexico with a backup quarterback like that that scares whoa it's backup quarterbacks okay right they say if you don't have two quarterbacks you got none but if it's you got two backups that's like 1.5 quarterbacks yeah math all right yeah and that was the upset alert brought to you by draft kings once again new customers can use the code cover three on sign up spend just five bucks and get 200 in total rewards within 21 days remember the draft king sports app is now live in all 50 states and that means from texas to california to florida every fan is in on the excitement in partnership with draft kings the crown is yours um all right let's do florida auburn yeah winner gets ranked oh fair florida's been knocking on the door they're they're like close but if auburn were to win i could see how that happens um i mean duh they play in the ssc i have far more faith in florida right now in this game than i do opera now like florida has not played anybody and auburn has had the much tougher opponent in baylor than anybody the gators have faced but even last week against southern miss like i i my three-star lock maybe these are just hurt feelings but i took that team total over because i thought that that offense was going to want to go out and put on a show and make everybody feel really good and it's not like they had a poor performance but they did not look nearly as crisp and clean as I would have liked to have seen them at home against Southern Miss. And I think now you're facing a much better defense. I they're at home. So, I mean, I'm not sitting there saying like they're not going to win the game or they don't have a chance. It's just, if the offense continues to not look great and if it looks a lot more like we saw it against Baylor, it's, it's tough for me to like have a ton of faith in the Tigers right now. Yeah. I mean, if you look at it, dolesh USF against power four teams, right? Average, they scored 16, 15, 18, and 12. Offensive EPA, negative 7.8, right? Like EPA per play, negative 0.1. Success rate, 37%. Auburn against Baylor. So basically just importing the USF offense and running it against Baylor. Basically the exact same thing. 17 points, EPA per play, exactly the same. You know, offensive EPA, negative 7.5. So like, basically the same. Most of this to me comes down to how does Florida handle going on the road for the first time, right? Like, you know, their receivers look good and healthy. I think the win in week one over FAU looks more impressive after how FAU kind of took it to Navy for most of that game. Although in the end there, it certainly got, got a little dicey for the owls. I think Florida is a, is a far better team. I think, I think, I mean, some are all inherited a much better roster than Golesh did. So I'm still very high on Golesh long-term at Auburn, but I think Florida has a pretty good shot to get this one. Uh, this has to be a DJ Durkin game at Auburn defense game, a low scoring ugly game, which you gave some of the stats there for Alex Golesh and Byron Brown. They are totally comfortable playing in those ugly games. I am scared for Byron Brown because his offensive line was getting, was getting pushed around. He didn't have a lot of time against Baylor's defense. I think it could be more of the same. Um, I don't anticipating him throwing three picks again, like he did against Baylor, but I don't expect him to light this defense up either. I just think the recipe for an Auburn win is kind of an ugly low scoring game, which is how they got the win against Florida when he was at USF and kind of how he got the win against Baylor in week one, you, you, you sense in, down on the, on the lines, under the lights. Yeah. I mean, we don't as good as Florida's been. I mean, people are either the dark horse team, they're going to the sec title. They have not played anybody yet. Aaron Filo also on the road in this spot, you know, need to, I just, it, it feels like it's one of those, uh, two sets of footprints in the sand, Auburn Jesus kind of moments where we're just going to be like, how in the world did Auburn win that game? Um, it won, they beat Baylor by one foot, you know, it's it sit on paper with everything that I've seen from both of these teams. And I know that Auburn has been tested in a way that Florida was not. I'm I've, I liked the gate. I've liked what I've seen from the Gators more, but an awesome, awesome test for John Summerall's group, phenomenal quarterback matchup, Mississippi state, South Carolina. And how about, how about this Bryles family reunion right here? Right. Jeff Levy is Kendall Bryles brother-in-law. We got Lenora sellers. In the Kendall corner. We got Camario Taylor in the Levy corner. Woo. Playing in Columbia too. I, this is a fun game. Where's, is it just the quarterbacks? Like what are the places where you think we got Dylan Stewart healthy or not? That's what I'm looking for. That's a big piece of this too. I mean, it is quarterback game. It'd be fun to watch both of them, but I think it's going to be a, a Dylan Stewart. How much of an impact can he have fluff Bothwell to like, can Mississippi state run the ball? I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. a little bit, kind of take some of that pressure off Camario. Which quarterback would you rather have? Camario. I don't think it's close. I think it's close. I think it's close. I think it's very close. I think right now I would rather have Lenoris because he's been in these games. Whereas Camario hasn't yet. I mean, listen, they just went on the road against Minnesota and whooped their ass. That's one of the more impressive wins we've seen from anybody this year. But to me, this is a little bit of a different spot. So we'll see. I think Camario has a much higher ceiling long term for what he could be in college than Lenoris. But right now I think I'd rather have Lenoris. Like I say, downfield pass or spinning it, it looks more, it looks like Camario throwing the ball. I think I'd like that more than Lenoris Sellers. But in this spot playing at home at night, I mean, take me back to two years ago. Right. When Lenoris was in so many of these massive games, games, they won games, they lost the Alabama game, the LSU game. I mean, he's just he's been able to stand up and make big plays in a lot of big spots before in his career. But a lot of fun for 15 Eastern time, by the way, not quite under the lights. Winner gets ranked. Sure. I think if Mississippi State does, maybe because they have the win over Minnesota, who's who's leading in any of them in votes? Who's got more votes? Between the two of them? They're probably not close. Neither of them are knocking on the door yet for it to be inside the top 30. But that's because they don't. They're brands. Mississippi. Brands don't resonate. Mississippi State has two more points in South Carolina. But it's Mississippi State has a better chance. They might. The winner might just get it. But if Mississippi State's three, you know, with a road win against Minnesota and a road win against South Carolina, you better have them in your top 25. I don't know. It's a top 12. All the people with these tied in knots. Over this Tulsa, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Boise State situation. No big log jam in the in the pipes of the AP top 25 poll. We've got very excited about this. There's a double header on CBS, America's Most Watched Network, the network of stars. USC, two years ago, did not play well in the Eastern time zone. Now they are facing a different challenge here going up against a Rutgers team that is in very, very, very, very, very bad shape. From how bad is it? It was. It's bad enough that WFAN phone lines have been blowing up because Rutgers fans are real ones. I heard the Arkansas. What was her name? Miss. Was it not Miss June? Miss Judy. You're like the Arkansas phone call season ticket holder who was losing her mind. WFAN season ticket holders. Like, listen, keep keep that going. That's that stuff's eternal right there. That's real passion. Real ball. USC's going to be in a spot where the story of this game will be Jade Maiva. Will he live up to the opportunity? You see him coming out and gutting this Rutgers defense and sort of allowing that story to be told. Or do you think that it might be a little bit wonky as they're in this road spot in Piscataway? I think they try to get in and get out. Yeah. They got Oregon on deck. Rutgers sucks. Like, I don't think that they need to or will try to win by margin. They might do it accidentally anyway. But like, I think if you're Lincoln, it's like, all right, hey, make this trip. It's a business trip. Get in. Get out. I think Brad, Charles and Jenny are going to spend a lot of time this week prepping for stuff to talk about in the second half. I mean, listen, UMass tore this defense apart. What the hell is USC going to do to it? I know that travel is a thing, but it ain't that big of a thing. Well, there's also, yeah, I mean, having discussions about what will the final score be is different than a discussion of, you know, what's this going to look like? What does it mean to USC? What it means to USC really might be a business trip. You know, let's go in. Let's get this thing to 99%. What about, I did not include this in upset alert. We did not talk about Colorado State last. Last week, but we did talk about, uh, old it's Hunter Haney. Yeah. Oh, Hunter Haney quarterback for Colorado State. Hoss Haney. Hoss Haney. Yeah. Hoss Haney. Thank you. Hunter Henry. You were thinking of never. I don't think about Patriots. Um, that's somebody else. Hoss Haney looked pretty good out there for Colorado State and Jim Warren Jr. You know, he had a group. We weren't really sure what to make of them. Some good, uh, some decent sideline. They're playing host to a BYU team that we're feeling good about after that win against Arizona. We talked about, uh, both on Saturday night and on Monday. Uh, what's what, what could, what landmines might there be as a, as BYU makes the trip up into Colorado? Do you overlook them? Yeah. Yeah. I, I watched that whole Colorado State game last week. I think Colorado State's offense is really good. It's defensive for it. Um, so, I mean, I, I don't think BYU is going to have to get out of their comfort zone at all on offense. Um, I think Colorado State will probably have a little something for them with offense, but probably just not enough because BYU is, is pretty nice at the lines of scrimmage. I think that'll really change what Colorado State can do, but I expect, I expect BYU to fully just think, Hey, we can go in and play our, our game plan here. Uh, and it may not always be comfortable because, you know, Payne looks the part of like a former power for, uh, quarterback recruit who is really thriving in this scheme. Uh, but I, I do think BYU beats them up at the line of scrimmage. Yeah. He was, uh, Oklahoma State first. or an Oklahoma State quarterback before this, was he somewhere else? Yeah, and I think TCU was involved, too, at one point. I'm trying to remember what the progression was there. Yep. Also, another way to think, too, we always talk about, like we just mentioned with USC going on the road against Rutgers with Oregon looming, or you see these big teams like BYU, will they be overlooking Colorado State? It's maybe why Colorado State will be in this game. If you're Colorado State, are you selling out to try to beat BYU? Or are you just kind of more focused on, hey, we've got to win the Pac-12 here. We're not going to risk our conference chances by trying to beat a team we're probably not going to beat. Man, I don't. Never mind. You know I always have trouble with this one. This one will also be on America's Most Watched Network, the Network of Stars, 7.30 p.m. kickoff Eastern time from out in Fort Collins. That means you'll have Rich Waltz, Brian Kelly, Adam Brenneman, and Jordan Giorgio on the call. So keep that on your radar for the evening slate. I mean, there's still a lot. I'll just sort of open this up. JMU at San Diego State I thought was interesting. Arizona State and Kansas are playing in London. We just got our eyes on both those teams a lot. Now we're shipping them out to London. I don't know. It makes no sense. This is moneymaker. I mean, Kenny Dillingham's had his palms out for a while begging for money. It's got to be bad, right? They've got to get a nice little payday. It's got to be. I mean, this is not good for Arizona State to have to back up playing at Texas A&M. In a game where I thought they played well but just like stepped on the wrong, you know, stepped in dog poop. I don't know what the word is. But on a down-to-down basis, Arizona State hung with Texas A&M in Texas A&M's house. Yeah, yeah, they did. And now they're going to London? And Kansas was like in a game with all this emotion? I mean, are they – What's left in the tank Saturday? You know, like both these teams seemed like they poured it out last week. And then we put them on a plane to London. Petrol, sir. Petrol's in the tank, sir. Petrol, yeah. How much petrol you got in the tank? I'm very curious to see who gets off the bus. Not to mention chaos quarterback in a country where they drive on the other side of the road. Who knows what shenanigans he's going to get up to. Oh, my gosh. That was a wild ride. It's fun to watch. So, I think I saw Ryan say in the tailgate before we got started that Isaiah Marshall's worth 26 points. For either team, you just don't know which one. Yeah. I mean, you saw some of the worst throws you've ever seen a quarterback make. I mean, it is. Where is that ball going? And then he makes 360 completion, which is another one you probably should never throw. But then he delivers a dime. And you're like, where did that come from? He is incredible. I love him. I know. This actually might turn the British into American football fans. You know, we ship them the Jags all the time, and that ain't getting it. But they see this. He's the college football ambassador. They see this game, and they're like, whoa. We have never seen anything like this with the other football you send us. No clue who shows up Saturday there. I mentioned that JMU-San Diego State game. I feel like I've gotten a little bit more JMU than San Diego State at this point in my process. I don't have an expert opinion, but I think it's a really fun and interesting game and a good opportunity for San Diego State after they just didn't seem to have the horses in that game against UCLA. I mean, they broke against UCLA, but I was impressed by what I saw from them for the first part of that game. I think this is going to be a tough game for James Madison. Defensively, yeah. Quarterback-wise, I don't think San Diego State has a guy to hang with some of the power-four teams this year. Everything else looked okay. What about for the San Diego State? Because I'm calling this equally interesting for San Diego State. Yeah. That's what I'm saying. I don't think San Diego State. James Danigal is not. Yeah, correct. Now you're right. I don't think James Madison's quarterback play is overwhelming you either. I think the reason you like James Madison. Maybe the reason you like James Madison and San Diego State is because of everything else they have around them. Very, yeah. Very old-school college football in that, where it's like. Remember, you're like. Before quarterback, when your middle-of-the-road power conference quarterback was a liability mostly, and you were just really hoping he would be able to take care of business and be a bus driver? I was hoping to get San Diego State here as a dog for locks, but Vegas was like, no, San Diego State is a little better than JMU. Or at least with that travel. Basically, even with travel, yeah. Any other sort of games? I know we've run a little bit long. Thanks for sticking around. There's a lot more games that are interesting, but any others you want to turn attention to here in the final minutes? Final moments of BGB. Are we or are we not a turtle pod? Yeah, all right. Maryland-Virginia Tech. Winner gets ranked? I mean, this is a big game. Virginia Tech has looked good to start the season. Maryland has looked good to start the season. Win here, you're 3-0. You're set up pretty well. Tom. Tom. Tom. Yes? How are you doing? Doing all right? Good, thank you, coach. Bizarre, right? I mean. What was going on? Oh, no, it's just. He's trained. Is that his stick? Yes. If you have to say, respond to him and say, I'm good, coach. How are you? If you say, hey, coach, he says, hey, back. If you jump right into your question. There's a nuance to it. And he's trained everybody in the room. The question came from Zoom, and his Zoom was. The reporter's Zoom was glitching, so he couldn't hear. Like, he thought there was an honest technological issue, and James was just sticking to it. Yeah, sticking to the bit. Yeah, Andy Bitter, VT Sideline, somebody who's covered Virginia Tech for a really long time. I've been using him to sort of discern what exactly is going on here. And that's what I. As I understand it, thanks to Andy's reporting on the media scene in Blacksburg, is that I think that everybody else is kind of. Franklin has tried to train everybody on some decorum here, and it was an honest tech issue that made that exposed to. Yeah. And if you wanted to say, that's a little much, James, but I understand. Are we going to play it? Oh, yeah. There you go. Michael's explanation for it. You know, he's a one of one. He's feeling good right now. He's feeling great in Blacksburg. Vibes are high. Lots of beef between Loxley and Franklin when they were both coaching in the Big Ten at Penn State in Maryland. And, you know, James Franklin was Ralph Regan's offensive coordinator and at one point considered a coach-in-waiting. A coach-in-waiting, yeah. For Maryland. James Franklin was in the We Must Protect This House commercial alongside Fridge back in 2003 in Maryland's, you know, part of that Under Armour breakout. So I called a game. I called a game in Maryland when James Franklin was the head coach-in-waiting. And I was, you know, I was asking him in our production meeting, I said, you know, Coach, I said, you know, do you think you're ready to be the head coach? Like, what timeline? Like, are you ready now? And he turns around, he pulls out this massive. He goes, you see this right here? This is my coaching playbook right here. And it was like a three-ring binder. It was like six inches thick. And he's like, you see, I've been taking notes every single day since I've been in this business. I've got this coach in here. I've got this schedule in here. 365 days a year mapped out. You think I'm ready? I'm ready to go. Like, he was all fired up. I was like, all right, coach. Ready to go. And he went to Vanderbilt and did a great job and left Maryland hanging in the dust. Whoa, whoa, whoa. I don't. That's. I think a door was shut. Yes, it was. He was waiting and waiting and said, I'm out. Yeah, yeah, exactly. They're both 2-0, but you know what we've got to do when Maryland and Virginia Tech get together? Throw out the record books. Yeah, I mean, you got to. Absolutely. This is ACC hate. This is. Built up here for like a few years when they were in the same conference together. Oh, yeah. I mean, what was it? Like, oh, I guess 13? Yeah, well, how long were they in there together? Not that long, but long enough. It was 10 years. Virginia Tech joins in 04. Maryland leaves in like 14, I think. Does that timeline sound right to y'all? So, yeah, it's about a decade to be able to build up there. Different. Ethan Gronkmeyer. Oh. Ethan Gronkmeyer and Luke Reynolds are so at home in Blackhawks. In Blacksburg. Mm-hmm. Yeah. I seen them in post-game press conferences with their camo VT shirts and their shorts. And I'm like, these boys are about to go fishing. They're about to leave this stadium and they're about to head out and go fishing. They have found their home. They have found their place at Blacksburg. Happy for them right there. They also are playing well. Also, they are having some success. On the field for Maryland, Malik Washington, we are tracking them a leap and we'll see how that looks against. I think that this will be, without a doubt, the toughest challenge that the Maryland offensive line has had to deal with in terms of blocking Virginia Tech up front. And that'll be a lot. You know, that's one place that I think that my eyes will be going in terms of how Malik Washington and Maryland's offense will play in this game. It's going to be whether or not. whether or not he's having to deal with Kamari Copeland and the rest of those guys up front. just sitting in his lap. Of the games this weekend, that could be the best quarterback matchup. Obviously, LSU Ole Miss, SMU Louisville, we just mentioned Mississippi State, South Carolina. I don't think this is it, but I think it's one of the ones that could sneakily be in contention. Yep. Okay, what else was. I had Texas UTSA. Let down spot for Texas, prove it point for UTSA. I don't think it'll be close, but you can't completely rule it out. Can't completely rule it out. NC State, Vanderbilt. Is this a Jared Curtis start? Is he getting the start, or are they going to go. He's playing a lot. I don't know. I think we need to douse the blaze. It's been enough. We need to. Yeah. Because I thought they made the train. I was expecting that. I mean, they're doing a little competitive to keep the opponent on the toes, but I think it's about to start. Needs to start. For the Wolf Pack, didn't we project it here? It's like, hmm, CJ Bailey has had all that time to sit on maybe one of the worst games as a starter. What do you think he's going to do when he plays against that FCS Richmond defense? He'll find a lot more friction here in this one. I think that's the highest bowl leverage game this weekend. Ooh. What it means for the bowl math for both Vanderbilt and NC State, there is no game in week three that might have a bigger swing in whether or not you go bowling. Correct. Fun. UCLA-Purdue is going to be your late-night offering. Ooh. Speaking of bowls, what if Colorado goes on the road and wins again and beats Northwestern? Starts 3-0. I mean. I am not. I mean, Deion was already speaking in tongues when he went to. So he goes, what's he going to do for an encore? And it also. This is the last game. Hey, hey, hey. He might raise somebody from the dead. I don't know. No, no, no, no. DK, I had snakes in my mind. You know? That's a great call. He's got to. He's got to. He has to come into the press conference with some snakes. Yeah. That's if you really want to level this up. Take it even deeper. Duke Stanford, little nerd bowl. Davis Warren against. Duke's defense, which. I mean, Tom, what was the first half, second half? Was that on Illinois offense or was that Duke's defense? I would say it's a little bit of both. I think that Duke did a much better job of covering Colin Dixon and they did a decent. They did a better job of stopping the run in the second half, too. But Illinois was also down a couple offensive linemen by the second half, which probably played a role as well. Will Bill Belichick do a. Hubert Davis impression and end the career of a legendary ACC coach? If. I think Clemson is going. Oh, I don't know. I can't say that with extreme confidence. Yeah, it could be rough if they lose to North Carolina considering all the crap around North Carolina all offseason if they come to your place and beat you. I do not know if North Carolina will be able to score enough to win the game. I don't know. North Carolina's offense looks hard. How much is enough to win the game? That is. That's the operative question here. But, like, Billy Edwards and this North Carolina offense get behind the sticks too often. Everything is difficult and they're not great on third down. But they do have enough players and thanks to Bobby Petrino, they can create enough plays that, you know, it can string it together. Defensive line, I think, I mean, it was East Tennessee State. The defensive line still continues to be kind of a game changer here. So, I. Tate Reynolds is in trouble. Like, Clemson's offensive line, I think, is at a disadvantage against North Carolina's defensive line. So, that's where you get to the. You know, if this thing gets into a 17-16, a 20-17. Yeah. That's something that could happen. Would either coach take 21 today? Like, if I said, hey, Bill Belichick, I guarantee you score 21 on Saturday. I know Dabo would because they just put up 22 against Georgia Southern and 10 against LSU. Yeah. If you promised me three touchdowns, either coach races to sign up for it. Dabo wins the race because he's used to running down the hill and he's got a 20-year advantage on Bill. But they do their best to race to go and grab three offensive touchdowns. I don't think. I don't think either team will have three offensive touchdowns in this game. I mean, the total in this game is 43 and a half. Yeah, it's like an NFL total. Oh, Bill Belichick advantage. There you go. Right there. Also, Bill Belichick against rookie quarterbacks. Bill Belichick against quarterbacks in their first start. I don't know, man. I don't know if North Carolina will be able to get in sync enough to go and win the game, but it's going to be low scoring and it's going to be tense for sure. I don't know what happens in Death Valley. Anything else? Any other games you want to shout out? Want to do a little FCS or high school while we're at it? Missouri-Troy. App State-Charlotte should be another good test. I know Bud was big on the Mountaineers last week. We'll see if they can keep their in-state run going. App State-Charlotte will be. will be a football game that will be played. App State-Charlotte. Utah is playing Utah State. I know that we saw Utah State look a little bit, you know, more feisty. They had to take on Washington. Oh, my gosh. Was that a Washington thing? I think that's a Washington thing. Do you know what happened? We have a graphic built for big game breakdown and we have not talked about one of the games. No way. What? Michigan State-Notre Dame. Oh, God. I mean, we have a lot of fighting Irish. Like, maybe we just don't think they're that good. Maybe they're not good enough for a big game breakdown. They don't have any playmakers. And that's why. Oh, my God. I am. That's what I'm saying, Ryker. It was in the graphic. Listen, I will say this for the Notre Dame-Michigan State game. I don't think Michigan State is going to win this game. But I do think that if, like Wisconsin did, if Michigan State gives them some trouble, you might start sounding some alarm bells. I won't. Yeah, this one's in South Bend. I think it'll be a little different. So do I. If Michigan State kind of makes this one a little feisty, shows up, muddies it up a bit, and kind of doesn't get completely outplayed along the lines of scrimmage, like they've got a dude there, Eli Cohn, and he transferred from Illinois. He currently leads the Big Ten in sacks through the first two games of the season. If he starts having some, you know, success against this Notre Dame offensive line, the run game, even though they dominated Rice last week, overall as a team, the run game did not look incredible in that game. Like, there are some kind of things that, you know, you got to keep an eye on here. I'm glad you'll be keeping an eye on it because I am not enthused by this game. I think that it'll have a hard time making its way, you know, into my top rotation when you've got, you know, when you've got Florida Auburn going on, you've obviously got LSU Ole Miss and BYU Colorado State. You've got Virginia Tech Maryland trying to hold it down as a turtle pod. West Virginia, Virginia for our upset alert. It's a busy night slate, you know? We'll see. And I'll tell you what, not good news for Notre Dame if everybody's having to scramble to see what is up and why they're not winning by more, you know? That's not what you want. So we'll, of course, let you know our very favorite picks for these games on Thursday when we do our locks. But before that, we are going to be on your television screens Wednesday noon Eastern time on CBS Sports Network. Having a little, a little discussion, taking stock of what we've seen in the first two weeks, looking ahead and so much more. So check it out. CBS Sports Network noon Eastern time on Wednesday, then back here on youtube.com slash cover three Thursday, 11 a.m. Eastern time for locks. And you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fidelio. You can follow him at Danny Cannell. Follow him at Bud LA3. You can follow me at Chip underscore Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much. Don't be eating mayonnaise by the spoonful, Robbie. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. The college football season is Modelo season. There's nothing quite like a college football Saturday. The fight songs, the rivalries, the traditions passed down from one generation of fans to the next. And of course, they're settling in for a full day of football with Chris Modelo because Saturdays are for the gridiron and Cervasus. College football is built on tradition and no one knows tradition like Modelo. From the fan quakes that shake the stadium to the rivalry trophies that mean everything year after year. These traditions are what makes Saturdays. 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